The Fed is out of the picture through at least the first half of this year as central bankers work to understand the path of economic activity going forward. Of course, we will all be doing the same. As it currently stands, there is a widespread expectation that grow slows in 2019. The ultimate degree of slowing, however, remains the key question. Enough to keep the Fed from thinking they need to snug up policy a little tighter? Or enough to prompt a rate cut? Still unknown, but with inflation failing to live up to expectations it does seem that the Fed has a fairly high bar to a rate hike and a low bar to a cut. In ... (full story)