The Australian economy is growing a little above trend, although GDP growth slowed unexpectedly in the September quarter. In contrast, the labour market continues to improve, with the unemployment rate having fallen to 5 per cent. Underlying inflation remains low but is above its trough. The Bank’s growth forecasts have been revised down in light of recent data, particularly for consumption. GDP growth is expected to be around 3 per cent over this year and 2¾ per cent over 2020. With growth expected to be a little above trend and the unemployment rate continuing to decline, underlying inflation is expected to ... (full story)

The RBA has started the year with a significant shift, lowering its growth outlook and acknowledging greater uncertainties and downside risks. While the Board still expects the economy to track towards its employment and inflation targets, and does not see a strong case for a near term change in the cash rate, there has been a clear change in emphasis. In particular, the Governor has moved from the view, expressed throughout 2018, that “the next move in the cash rate was more likely to be an increase than a decrease” to one in which the probabilities of the next move being up or down are “more evenly balanced”. This ... (full story)