There will inevitably be caution ahead of the key US events later this week. The net risks suggest that the US currency is liable to weaken, especially as a 0.25% rate increase has been priced in, although there are dangers in aggressive dollar selling given that much of the market is positioned for a weaker dollar. Nevertheless, there is the potential for a fresh Euro attack on the 1.2185 level with a 40-50% chance of a move to 1.2250 over the next 24 hours. The dollar was undermined on Friday by weaker than expected revisions to GDP figures, but the Euro was again unable to push through the 1.2185 level. The dollar ... (full story)