Even though the US 10yr is off highs hit prior to the FOMC meeting, there is a certain resilience being shown at the hold in the 4.5% area. Whatever the tone of last week's FOMC meeting, the most important information for Treasuries will come from next week's CPI report, and we are still looking at 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month combos, which remains too hot. If we get this, likely it won't be till the May readings that we see the beginnings of some taming in MoM inflation rates. That keeps the pressure elevated in the coming month. We think the hold in the 4.5% for the US 10yr is reflective of this. We also saw some ... (full story)