When analysing the outlook for equities, it can be useful to consider the assumptions financial markets appear to be pricing in. Historically we have found that opportunities and risks are most present when the market is pricing in bearish or bullish outcomes respectively that probabilistically are either not that likely to occur or will be brief in duration. Currently there appears to be a correlation between the rally in stocks and expectations that interest rates will fall. Even though these expectations have moderated in recent months, the bond market continues to suggest that rates will fall over the coming 18 ... (full story)