There are times when central bank communication feels a bit like Wall Street S&P forecasts. That is, they are not really forecasts but more like a constantly updating series where the real-time data and spot levels of various variables leads to an ongoing mark-to-market that contains very little forecasting value. Or like when a central bank tees up a rate cut at the next meeting and all the analysts update their forecasts for a cut. Or when a company goes bankrupt, so an analyst downgrades it. We saw this with Waller last night as he validated the idea that there could be cuts on the horizon but that horizon is ... (full story)