Our forecast for the federal funds rate has the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting to cut rates in July 2024, with a second rate cut before the end of 2024. Markets seem to believe that the Fed is going to start cutting rates earlier than that and expect more cuts than what we currently expect. Whether we are correct, or markets are, will continue to depend on what happens with inflation and how fast it continues to disinflate. If the disinflationary process continues to accelerate, as we have seen lately, markets may have an edge on the future path of interest rates. However, our belief is that the Fed is more concerned ... (full story)