Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold, Silver and Copper testing key supports for the short- and medium-term outlook
Gold key support at 1,870
Silver key support at 22.15
Copper key support at 362.70
A close below will draw bearish pictures
Gold XAUUSD is testing key support at around 1,870. RSI is below 40 i.e., in negative sentiment supporting the bearish trend scenario.
However, the past couple of times RSI has hit 30 level XAUUSD has rebounded. Same behaviour could occur this time around
If not, and Gold is closing below 1,870 a swift sell-off down to around 1,800 could be seen. Declining 55 and 100 Moving Averages are adding to the bearish sentiment
However, the 55 weekly Moving Average is adding to the support and weekly RSI is still in positive sentiment.
Bottom line, 1,870 could be crucial both short- but especially on medium-term.
Silver XAGUSD is once again trying to break below its lower rising trendline – weekly chart.
If successful this time 22.15 support is key. A close below 11.15 could lead to selling pressure down to around 20. Some support at around 21.25
However, similar to Gold Silver usually turns around when RSI is reaching 35-30 level. Will it also do it this time around?
For Silver to resume uptrend a close above 23.80 is needed Copper is once again bouncing from support at 362.70. A minor rebound to 375 level could be seen but the trend is down short-term supported by Negative RSI sentiment and all daily Moving Averages declining
However, as can be seen on the weekly chart Copper is bouncing back above its lower rising trendline. That trendline is key for the medium-term trend.
A close below and a close below 362.70 is quite likely to send Copper down to test key strong support at around 354.50.
A close below 354.50 will result in Bearish trend confirmation on the medium-term with potential down to around 315.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.