The data stars are aligning in a way likely perhaps to keep the FOMC from raising interest rates at the upcoming July 25-26 meeting. The most recent inflation numbers for June show further progress in bringing inflation down, even the pesky persistence in core inflation. The labor market is cooling enough to improve the imbalance in labor supply without eliminating demand for workers. Inflation expectations are overall well-anchored, if at levels a bit above where they were before the current episode began in 2021. The economic data scheduled for release in the July 17 week should not change that outlook absent ... (full story)