The U.S. economy has proven resilient in the face of the significant tightening of both fiscal and monetary policy that took place in 2022. Consumer demand has held up particularly well, boosted initially by a drawdown of pent-up savings and, more recently, by solid growth in real disposable incomes. Prime age labor force participation has risen above its pre-pandemic peak, the unemployment rate for women and African Americans has fallen to historical lows, and real wages have been rising faster than inflation since mid-2022. Growth of around 1.2 percent (on a q4/q4 basis) is expected for this year, modestly picking ... (full story)