Pricing of swaps linked to scheduled Federal Reserve meetings now suggest that a quarter-point hike is more likely than not at the central bank’s next meeting in May. The rate on the contract tied to that gathering rose to around 4.96% on Monday, around 13 basis points above the current effective rate on fed funds, the benchmark targeted by the central bank. The Fed tends to move in increments of 25 basis points — or multiples thereof — so that suggests odds of more than 50% that it will hike. The most recent upgrading of odds came as short-end Treasury rates jumped Monday amid a more upbeat outlook for US banks. The ... (full story)