January saw the return of the "QE trade"... or more appropriately, a de-hawking of The Fed as the narrative rapidly shifted from hyped-inflation and growth scares to 'soft landing' and Fed-Pause/Pivot... and everything's awesome. Overall January saw macro surprise data flat in January as 'soft' survey data tumbled (along with weaker 'hard' industrial data) but offset by a number of questionably strong labor market indications...{chart} However, despite the narrative shift, January saw rate expectations barely budge... terminal rate dropped around 4bps while rate-cut exp fell 3bps... {chart} The market is ... (full story)