The soft landing crew is increasingly taking over. No, the bond market’s base case is not a recession - it’s immaculate disinflation. Yes, getting this call right is crucial for your portfolio performance in 2023. In this article, we will: Look at different corners of the bond and equity markets to assess what are the market-implied probabilities of a recession or a soft landing; Debate how to approach macro investing in such a binary environment. ‘‘The bond market is pricing 200 bps of cuts = the bond market says recession - 100% !’’ No, not really. The bond market’s base case is immaculate disinflation, and let me ... (full story)