As my mentor used to say, any market practicioner can make headlines by screaming something wildly out-of-consensus but conveniently leaving the details of his forecast out of the equation. How many times have you heard that ‘‘the US Dollar will fall apart’’ or that ‘‘the real estate bubble will burst’’ over the last 10-20 years, yet without a clear time horizon for this call to play out? If only you got 1 USD (pun intended) for every time you heard something like this, you’ll be rich by now. Now, it seems most analysts ‘‘expect a recession’’. Ok, but when will it hit and how hard will it be? The answers to these two ... (full story)