Investors would have been wise to have kept a wary eye on the direction the CME’s Fedwatch Tool was taking. This tends to give a pretty good guide to the way the markets view likely Fed interest rate policy announcements at the next FOMC meeting. After easing somewhat, the consensus has moved back to predicting a more aggressive Fed and a 75 basis point rise, as opposed to a 50 basis point one, as being the more likely outcome in November with odds of around 71:29 in favour of the higher rate being imposed. The higher rate makes a deeper economic recession and a stronger dollar a more likely consequence – in ... (full story)