The US 10yr yield is on the verge of hitting 4%. It's quite a level. It’s only a few months back that we managed to get above 2%, the culmination of quite a heavy lift that started in 2021. The break above 2% was followed by a snap up to 3%. And now here we are staring at a break above 4%. Where now? We think still higher. But getting much closer to a structural peak. Back to the future. We were at 4% in 2007. Remember what happened then? Some context here. The last time we saw 4% was in 2007. Back then rates were journeying down from 5%. We did not know it then, but we were on the eve of the Great Financial Crisis. ... (full story)