US CPI inflation arrives on Wednesday. A rise to 5.8% y/y (from 5.4% previously) seems likely and with prices up by 0.5% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis. Core CPI is expected to rise to 4.3% y/y from 4% with prices ex-food-and-energy higher by 0.4% m/m. There is likely more upside risk than downside risk to these estimates. If the estimates are close to reality, then headline year-over-year inflation will surpass the prior peak in 2008 before lagging effects of the pandemic dragged it downward and will hit the highest rate since late 1990. Core inflation would hit the highest rate since the end of 1991. It almost ... (full story)