I am going to speak this evening about the state of the economy and about monetary policy as the recovery from Covid unfolds. The title of this speech, The Hard Yards, is I think a saying that originated in sailing, though I associate it more with forward play in rugby. I remember saying, around a year ago when the recovery looked rapid, that the hard yards were yet to come, and while I don’t want to claim any great prescience, it appears to be turning out that way. Nor do I have any claim to originality – Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz wrote in their monetary history of the US that the most notable feature of the ... (full story)

Bailey asks "What if this is the beginning of a more far-reaching structural change in the economy which alters relative pay across occupations?" He says that he's not making predictions but the full text of the speech is all about inflation worries. Bullets: • The rate of recovery has slowed over recent months, and that slowing is continuing • Recovery in some consumer-facing services appears to have been delayed • Surveys indicate the impact of supply-chain issues is broadening out (full story)