Incoming data still reflects the push-pull dynamics of the shutdown and reopening; we don’t have a clear picture of the growth trajectory after those dynamics play out. Fiscal policy in the U.S. is a mess. I noticed this via Reuters: The dollar is at its most oversold level in over 40 years, investment bank Morgan Stanley said on Friday, adding it had now shifted from its dollar-bearish stance and turned “tactically neutral” on the U.S. currency. I want to make clear that there are two separate dollar stories circulating. One story is that the dollar is less attractive due to anticipated growth differentials between ... (full story)