Hello Sir,, What is your view on today's US PMI reports...

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Forecasts
NFP
Most forecasts are falling within a range of about 142K to 190K. A very important consideration is the most recent forecasts, which are for the most part all toward the upper end of that range. That's a good sign that we could see a better than expected NFP number.
Unemployment rate
The rate is widely expected to come in at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month.
Avg Hourly Earnings
While most forecasts are calling for 0.3%, there's a significant camp of economists predicting 0.2% reading. Both would be an improvement from the prior month, which was 0.1%.
Last month, the data didn't have as much impact as we've seen lately, while the Fed was providing a lot of certainty around interest rates. Since changing their chance to neutral, data in general will have slightly less impact. Here's how gold and the US dollar reacted last month.
As always, heavy volatility is expected. The market is pricing in a rate cut by the September FOMC meeting. Even though the Fed is sticking with its nuetral stance on rates, there's some risk in weaker than expected data triggering the pricing in of an earlier rate cut. Here's the outlook for rate probabilities for September per the CME's FedWatch tool:
As shown in last month's impact, there could ample opportunity to get into a trade after a trend emerges. Trading prior to the releases or on any knee-jerk reaction is too risky. NFP and hourly earnings are the ones to focus on. The unemployment rate shouldn't have too much impact at all, unless it beats estimates. Also, don't forget this release is very susceptible to revisions which can sometimes cause a whipsaw.
Caution is always advised. Good luck out there!
forecast_holt
Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
206953.6 188037.8 225869.4 178024.4 235882.8
forecast_holt_damp
Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
207547.1 188637.7 226456.4 178627.7 236466.4
forecast_ses
Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
207548.1 188666.5 226429.8 178671.1 236425.1
forecast_naive
Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
202000 182470.5 221529.5 172132.2 231867.8
DislikedUnemployment Claims is scheduled for tomorrow morning... Just for fun, I ran the Unemployment Claims timeseries through a few forecasting functions in R. Here were the results: forecast_holt Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 206953.6 188037.8 225869.4 178024.4 235882.8 forecast_holt_damp Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 207547.1 188637.7 226456.4 178627.7 236466.4 forecast_ses Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 207548.1 188666.5 226429.8 178671.1 236425.1 forecast_naive Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 202000 182470.5 221529.5 172132.2 231867.8 I wouldn't...Ignored
DislikedUS Employment Data - January Preview Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m Forecasts NFP Most forecasts are falling within a range of about 142K to 190K. A very important consideration is the most recent forecasts, which are for the most part all toward the upper end of that range. That's a good sign that we could see a better than expected NFP number....Ignored
Disliked{quote} When I started checking sensitivity of NFP data in 2017-18, average hourly earning turned out to be the winner. It make sense which is directly will impact the spending power. Do you have same observation?Ignored
Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
206476.2 184821 228131.5 173357.4 239595
Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
206880.9 194156.1 219605.7 187420 226341.7
DislikedIf history is any indication, we should see gold and euro prices (high correlation) supported by this event.Ignored
DislikedGenerally speaking, as the value of the Euro goes up, then so does gold? If so, is the same correlation true for silver? Lastly, what is the reasoning behind the correlation?Ignored
DislikedMy first guess is, if there is Euro strength against the Dollar, then the dollar becomes weaker, and thus precious metals rise in price. That is just my simpleton thinking, but I really am new to this space and have no idea.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Gold and silver have a very high correlation. Euro's correlation with gold is heavily dependent on the US dollar. As the USD weakens both will appreciate. {quote} Yup, you're on the right track with that one.Ignored
Disliked{quote} But - this morning after the ECB meeting, EUR/USD went up, however Gold and Silver went down?Ignored
December FOMC (last time projections were released)