#GOLD / H4 / Three Ideas
4
GoldenEuro Cross (XAU/EUR) GoldenAussi Cross (XAU/AUD) 51 replies
Gold futures & XAU 77 replies
Daytrade - XAU/USD & XAG/USD 14 replies
XAU/JPY & XAG/JPY 13 replies
Successful XAU/USD traders 7 replies
Disliked{quote} I'm going to take a little bite at today's action, either way it won't really matter but I'd hate to miss out on the funIgnored
DislikedOh my my completely missed the rally..... But entered a long at 1443... i still believe 1450++ in couple of hourly candles...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I don't know who you are, i never read any of your posts, this is the first time i noticed you exist on this forum. Your personal feelings are irrelevant to me. There is no reason to share your unconstructive opinion with the sole goal to flame bait someone. It's childish. We're adults, we're not in middle school Aussi. I gave my opinion as an economist. It is a fact trump destabilized the global economy (disagree? prove me wrong). You don't have to agree with me, in fact, i'd love it if you disagree, this forum exists for us to argue our...Ignored
Disliked{quote} {quote} Hold on guys!! Two of my favorite people on this site! Chill chill chill. You both would benefit from each other. Hear me out... Aussie was one of the first members I got to know here and was encouraging and still is whenever I post. Sometimes I post something that I feel is very valuable and sure enough Aussie's is the only member to take notice. He's an old vet around here. Vorenzd is my brother from another mother. I've gotten to know him and he's got a lot of experience and knowledge that not a lot of people possess. He is always...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Looks like a great entry. I just entered short as well. I was actually already in a similar trade. I went short the yen within the past hour. So given their strong correlation this trade makes a lot of sense. Check out Gold/JY overlay on a 5M. {image}Ignored
The troy ounce of the precious metal gained more than $25 on Thursday after United States President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports and triggered a flight-to-safety, helping traditional safe-havens find demand. With the trading action turning subdued ahead of the day's critical macroeconomic data releases from the US, the XAU/USD pair is staging a technical correction, losing 0.5% on the day at $1436.
However, the fact that the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is losing 3% following Thursday's drop of more than 5% suggests that the market sentiment is still sour, making it likely for gold to stay resilient against the dollar. Furthermore, major European equity indexes are staying deep in the negative territory to confirm the dismal mood.
Eyes on US jobs report
In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its labour market report, which will include Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and Labor Force Participation figures. The market consensus points to the NFP edging lower to 164,000 from 224,000 in June.
Previewing the data, "We expect job creation in the manufacturing sector to mean-revert after the five-month high 17k increase in June," said TD Securities analysts.
"We forecast employment in the services sector to moderate somewhat from its firm June print. All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, while we expect wages to rise 0.2% m/m, leaving the annual print unchanged at 3.1% in July.”
DislikedPresident Trump is currently speaking about trade with EU, this could have a significant impact on the markets. You can watch the livestream here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDCGH8GQd7gIgnored
Gold was subject to the end of the week and Nonfarm Payroll induced profit taking with prices in the yellow metals falling around 0.30% into the close on Wall Street. Gold was trading, on a spot basis, at around $1,441 having travelled between a range of $1,430.45 and $1,449.30.
The yellow metal gave back some ground on Friday, but that is too be expected given the sheer amount of ground its covered since the trade tariff scare that sent prices around $45.00 higher on the day in the prior session. Gold can still attract a bid on risk-off concerns and taking a look around, if copper is anything to go by, encroaching on two-year lows as trade wars intensify, then precious metals can likely continue to draw in investment.
The Dollar plunged from close to the 99 figure highs all the way back to test the resilience of the 98 figure, scoring a low of 98.05. This also enabled gold's futures prices to settle at a more than a six-year high on Friday. December gold climbed $25.10, or 1.8%, to settle at $1,457.50 on Comex and was the highest close for a most traded contract since May 9, 2013.
Indeed, the signs of an intensifying trade war forced US yields and the greenback sharply lower as trader's called the Fed's bluff. Notwithstanding the Fed's messaging, expectations that rates are headed towards zero in the USA grew, with the market pricing in 50bp of rate cuts in 2019.
"While the move in rates appears reasonable, as Powell referenced trade uncertainty as a key driver of future rate cuts, gold could still have room to shine considering its convexity related to its zero-coupon nature and uber-long duration."
Nonfarm Payrolls were solid enough
Nonfarm payrolls matched expectations, coming in at 164k following last month's downwardly revised 193k print. However, they were solid enough and something for everything could be found in the details behind the inline headline.
"The 3-month and 6-month averages slowed to around 140k — still more than sufficient to absorb new entrants into the labor force, but well off the 240k pace in January. Private service sector jobs led the gains with a 133k increase, which were explained by notable increases in education (66k), finance (18k) and professional services (38k). Employment gains in the goods sector rose at half of last month's at 15k, with increases in the manufacturing sector (16k) partly offsetting weakness in construction jobs (4k). Despite ongoing woes in manufacturing sentiment indices and trade uncertainties, the manufacturing sector managed to register its strongest gain since January. Note, however, that the trend in manufacturing growth remains relatively soft amid global uncertainties,"
analysts at TD Securities explained.
Gold levels
Technically, Gold remains in bullish territories above the 20-day moving average and holds above the 78.60% retracement of the recent ranges as bulls look to the July swing highs of 1453.95. On a reversion, a 23.6% retracement to the 1435 level comes into play. 1421 marks the confluence of the 20, 50 and 200 daily moving averages.
DislikedPresident Trump is currently speaking about trade with EU, this could have a significant impact on the markets. You can watch the livestream here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDCGH8GQd7gIgnored