It's unrealistic to expect a Yes or No answer. If I had to answer it'd be that they should at least slow down the rate at which they are cutting. If inflation starts to come back there will be egg on a lot of faces. Goolsbee was speaking today and ...

You take out government and social services the labor market still added 186K which was still above the 147K forecast. The manufacturing sector continues to bleed. But there wasn't any major weakness in any one sector. Where the weakness is in this ...

Last month's Avg Hourly Earnings revised higher too.

. Fed might be in trouble. They're cutting rates into a tight labor market but justifying the 50 bps rate cut pointing to a weak labor market. Not much weakness in this report at all. Food ...

Very strong report with inflation pressures persisting. Notables: Business Activity Index (59.9%) increased by 6.6%, showing a strong surge in service sector activity. This marks the third consecutive month ...

Prices paid This easing of price pressures is a positive sign for manufacturers, as it reduces the inflationary burden on their production costs, but it also reflects weakening ...

Stronger than expected. Job openings increased notably in construction, up 138K and state and local government excluding education up by 78K. Total ...

Very opposite from everything I've ever read in any of his books. The China bull!

Generally mixed. Total retail and food services sales were up 2.1% from August 2023, with strong growth driven by nonstore retailers 1.7% m/m (7.8% y/y) and food services flat m/m, but 2.7% y/y. ...

CPI m/m to three decimals came in at 0.187%. Core CPI m/m to three decimals came in at 0.281%.

Agree. 100 bps in cuts by end of year is outlandish. There's no way in current climate. The bullish scenario would be 75 (three 25s). Base case is still a Sep cut of 25 bps.

Very mixed. Shelter prices are keeping the core number higher. Gas prices are helping overall CPI come down. I don't think this is enough to continue the 50 bps narrative. The shelter index rose by 0.5% in August, after a ...

Williams is speaking and seems like it's a political event. Waller is speaking at 11am. Then, we have CPI next week. If Waller doesn't provide guidance I'd be surprised. And I agree that this is nuts! Basically 50/50! There couldn't be any more ...

Enough for a 50? I don't see it. Waller at 11am might shine some light.

Very mixed. Worst case scenario for the Fed if they want to cut by 50 bps. Not much slowing in the labor market coupled with higher wage inflation. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with 7.1 million unemployed ...

Headline data in line with expectations. Overall mixed as Vancarbon pointed out . Prices paid seems like the big story here, coming in hot as the Fed wants to lower rates. Notables: Ten industries reported ...

Manufacturing slowdown started in 2022. Contracting 21 of the last 22 months. We haven't seen anything lower than 46. We probably will though. image

I don't think the data will come in soft enough for what the market is pricing in. Market is pricing in >100 bps of cuts through the end of the year. 50 of that in Sept. That's way too much unless things really start to deteriorate, and at a fast ...

We'll see. I thought the labor market would've softened a long time ago. Maybe it was and it just hasn't been reflected in the data. We might be singing a different tune if that -818K jobs revision was reflected as lower numbers when they came out. ...

Yeah I'm watching that. I'm not sure in what world the Fed is going to deliver a 50 bps cut. Outside of a disastrous NFP I think that's going to have to come back to Earth. I'd expect Waller on Friday to maybe deliver the final guidance before the ...