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-   -   Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures (https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=921360)

Beyfor Jun 4, 2019 9:23am | Post# 1

Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures
 
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Gold

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Beyfor Jun 4, 2019 9:24am | Post# 2

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Beyfor Jun 4, 2019 9:25am | Post# 3

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Copper

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EF5 Jun 4, 2019 1:18pm | Post# 4

I really like that seasonal visualization for copper.

Is something like that available for gold, platinum, palladium, and silver? If not, I might have to make one.

DonPato Jun 4, 2019 2:07pm | Post# 5

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On today's candle I'm showing buying support at the bottom of the day and very weak selling at the top. I am expecting higher highs () tomorrow.
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**Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify

bigtx Jun 4, 2019 3:18pm | Post# 6

On today's candle I'm showing buying support at the bottom of the day and very weak selling at the top. I am expecting higher highs () tomorrow. {image} **Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify
It seems like you, Mr. Beyfor and I are in agreement on silver. Im buying while its beaten down but looking for a rally medium term. Hope were right!

EventsTrader Jun 4, 2019 9:54pm | Post# 7

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**Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify
Thanks

Copper {image} {image}
Beyfor, I think I understand your gold and silver sentiment. It's hard to disagree with that. Are you predicting copper to come down?

I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going. There are so many factors at play right now. We have the tariffs of course, as well as the trade wars. But more important than any of that, at least to Dr. Copper, is the global slowdown.

While concerns still loom over China and how much of a slowdown we'll see, the US seems to be heading into a recession. Yield curve has been trying to invert. But the most surprising thing, gentlemen I present to you this: The market is now pricing in three rate cuts by year's end. Surprising. Name:  32ojqp(1).png
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Check out CME FedWatch Tool: Click to Enlarge

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EF5 Jun 4, 2019 10:46pm | Post# 8

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Are you predicting copper to come down? I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going.
For what it's worth, copper is still solidly in contango:
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There's just that one conspicuous drop in 2021.

But the most surprising thing, gentlemen I present to you this: The market is now pricing in three rate cuts by year's end. Surprising. {image} Check out CME FedWatch Tool: {image}
That's amazing. I get why the market is pricing in aggressive Fed easing, but US unemployment at 3.6% and well below NAIRU:

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Cutting soon is probably the prudent move, but it's not difficult to envision a future where they've cut 75bps and suddenly have an inflation problem. The Fed is in a difficult spot.

Beyfor Jun 5, 2019 4:24am | Post# 9

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{quote} Thanks {quote} Beyfor, I think I understand your gold and silver sentiment. It's hard to disagree with that. Are you predicting copper to come down? I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going. There are so many factors at play right now. We have the tariffs of course, as well as the trade wars. But more important than any of that, at least to Dr. Copper, is the global slowdown. While concerns still loom over China and how much of a slowdown we'll see, the US seems to be heading into a recession. Yield curve has been...
I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward.

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EventsTrader Jun 5, 2019 4:42am | Post# 10

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{quote} I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward. {image} {image}
Thanks for the response Beyfor. Being completely out of copper right now, I'm a little uncertain about what to expect. Good luck in your trade. I hope copper gives you that move lower. Careful on Friday, we could see some fireworks during the release of the US jobs data. Cheers!

You are the honorary recipient of the Dr. Copper cup. Name:  index.png
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DonPato Jun 5, 2019 10:12am | Post# 11

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Still buying going on in the Spot Silver Market but...
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buying is weak (at least to this point in the day). More importantly is that significant selling near the lows of the day where absorbed. I have moved my stop up to protect 45 pts. (450 pips).

Metallurgy Jun 5, 2019 11:16am | Post# 12

Thanks for the charts! I'm still wrapping my head around precious metals and my punishment is a big whooping in my trades Learning is expensive!

DonPato Jun 5, 2019 11:53am | Post# 13

...I'm still wrapping my head around precious metals and my punishment is a big whooping in my trades Learning is expensive!
It helps me to know that precious metals (like wheat or corn) are commodities. As such are subject to intraday volatility but are governed by larger concerns and economies. Thus intraday volatility is usually due to news (rumor), but has little consequence to the larger perspective. After losing a great deal trying to be profitable intraday trading on Gold, I started using much larger time frames to get a larger perspective on the commodities markets. These have improved my trading on almost all commodities including FX...which is also a commodity when you really think about it.

Metallurgy Jun 5, 2019 12:00pm | Post# 14

{quote} It helps me to know that precious metals (like wheat or corn) are commodities. As such are subject to intraday volatility but are governed by larger concerns and economies. Thus intraday volatility is usually due to news (rumor), but has little consequence to the larger perspective. After losing a great deal trying to be profitable intraday trading on Gold, I started using much larger time frames to get a larger perspective on the commodities markets. These have improved my trading on almost all commodities including FX...which is also a...
That's some good advice Don! I'm usually looking at H1/H4 charts so I think I'm good there. Once I feel comfortable doing the daily intraday trades I will be branching out into more long term positions. That's how I started with Crypto and it has treated me very well, I'm sure I can repeat that success here too

SurfsUp Jun 5, 2019 3:40pm | Post# 15

I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward.
I agree. With the turmoil, tarriffs, and yield curve threatening to invert, it feels that downturn risks are growing. Expect that to hit copper harder than other metals due to ties with construction. What is your timeline Beyfor on the resumption of downward pressure?

auricforecas Jun 5, 2019 5:02pm | Post# 16

I would expect gold to now deflate a little, as EUR/USD.
It is always good to own some gold and cash however

MzansiObi Jun 5, 2019 7:17pm | Post# 17

Gold {image}
Always good to see your charts bud,
Informative as always. I'm lookin at buying dip towards 1323.50/1324 handle.
For now price has moved too far too soon from that breakout from descending channel ......
Stay green

bigtx Jun 5, 2019 9:09pm | Post# 18

Beyfor, it looks like all your charts here are Daily or high TFs. Can you give me some insight as to how you use lower TFs, if at all?

Beyfor Jun 6, 2019 4:49am | Post# 19

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NYMEX Platinum

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MzansiObi Jun 6, 2019 5:08am | Post# 20

NYMEX Platinum {image}
Looking for pullback towards near 50% fib level of yesterday's bear candle. Confluence of resistance towards near that median on the daily chart....
But won't hold onto this for too long.


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