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-   -   The Skenobi Speculations - The Gold Market (https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=920789)

skenobi Jul 10, 2019 3:46am | Post# 41

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.... and these are my AUDUSD and USDJPY charts:

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I'd think spot FX across all the four pair I showed will either complete the set on their respective H4 charts (i.e. the dollar will strenghten), or the dollar will weaken.

I suspect the dollar will continue to firm up DESPITE the testimony, but weaken slightly against gold (i.e. XAUUSD to firm up) to balance it out.

But like Powell's testimonial today, the above is just a SNAPSHOT.

I recommend trading on what's happening at the moment and not on some snapshot.

skenobi Jul 11, 2019 1:12am | Post# 42

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Despite the textbook reactions expected from Chairman Powell's interest rate bias (or lack thereof), markets can really go anywhere and the financial press talking heads will find all sorts of reasons to justify why they were right (or explain why they were wrong or sorta right). My D1 chart for today for context: {image} A double top forming with a slightly lower 2nd peak. A purty lil pattern showing up on the H4 chart: {image} But on the H1, that second bottom (in the last blue box) is looking a lil exhausted. The support around 1390 looks firm....
The pullback up to 1394 occurred and my short was stopped out at 1397.

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Spot gold managed to complete 3 sets on the way up before stalling in the 4th set (1419-1426).

If spot really is taking a breather, price may try to test 1419 support to target 1416 and then 1410.

For some more context, here are the H4 and H1 charts:

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From the H4 chart, a 3rd peak is forming to complement the earlier double top.
If this peak turns out to be an even lower top than the prior two, I'd be inclined to short at 1425 (SL at 1428) else I'd go long on any convincing break upwards from 1436.

Surges like the one that took spot from the yellow box into the blue box (from the H4 chart) tend to behave like gaps.

Consequently, gaps tend to "want" to be closed.

skenobi Jul 11, 2019 1:24am | Post# 43

.... and these are my AUDUSD and USDJPY charts: {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} I'd think spot FX across all the four pair I showed will either complete the set on their respective H4 charts (i.e. the dollar will strenghten), or the dollar will weaken. I suspect the dollar will continue to firm up DESPITE the testimony, but weaken slightly against gold (i.e. XAUUSD to firm up) to balance it out. But like Powell's testimonial today, the above is just a SNAPSHOT. I recommend trading on what's happening at the moment and not on some...
I had expected the dollar to weaken only slightly, not as much as it actually did after Powell's initial remarks at his testimonial.

That said, XAUUSD is currently stalling around 1425.

Let's face it. If Powell's remarks had any more bite in it, gold would've AT LEAST gone on to test 1435.

But it hasn't. And the cycle continues.

skenobi Jul 11, 2019 11:32pm | Post# 44

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{quote} The pullback up to 1394 occurred and my short was stopped out at 1397. {image} Spot gold managed to complete 3 sets on the way up before stalling in the 4th set (1419-1426). If spot really is taking a breather, price may try to test 1419 support to target 1416 and then 1410. For some more context, here are the H4 and H1 charts: {image} {image} From the H4 chart, a 3rd peak is forming to complement the earlier double top. If this peak turns out to be an even lower top than the prior two, I'd be inclined to short at 1425 (SL at 1428) else...
Gold took that breather as I had thought it would. Price cleared 1419 (the bottom of the yellow box), and then the weak interests around 1416 (mid-point of the blue box).

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It managed to clear the pink range to 1405 but failed to follow thru to clear the yellow box low at 1396... which would've been "nice" because it would've "closed" the prior surge in the prior yellow range covering the same levels.

Almost as though Fed Chair Powell never opened his mouth.

As the reader should be able to tell by now, I don't need that kind of "nice".

I just need my static fibo S/R levels to be respected most times.

And so far they have been. Almost without fail.

Spot on M15 is stalling around 1408, which is coincidentally also a first test of the 60-bar SMA (another nice-to-have).

I think the test will fail (i.e. the pink set will not be completed), and price may take another crack at closing the week below 1405.

For some more context, here are today's H4 and H1 charts:

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The "pattern" continues on the H4.

Note that the last significant top on the H1 (in the blue box) failed to even clear the set at 1430.

The prognosis is the same as the M15: stalling around 1408-1410 with a view to close below 1405.

Y'all have a great Friday!

skenobi Jul 15, 2019 12:40am | Post# 45

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In the background this Monday: China posted better-than-expected industrial production and retail sales stats. Asian stocks are firmer as a result.

FX moved as well, but at the tiny rate it moved, it might as well have not moved.

Assuming the pattern on XAUUSD H4 holds, I'd only be looking for levels to sell gold this early in the week.

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Methinks the H1 confirms this, with a lower peak and still within the same yellow box, seemingly using 1413 as a pivot to slingshot lower.

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On the M15 chart, spot couldn't complete the set to 1421. Spot will still need to clear 1408 to clearly extend its losses.

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Barring anything what will increase uncertainty in the near term (with Trump, anything is possible), I think touch 1405 support is do-able.

And yeah, I remembered I said we could see a 1405 close last Friday.

EventsTrader Jul 15, 2019 4:34pm | Post# 46

In the background this Monday: China posted better-than-expected industrial production and retail sales stats. Asian stocks are firmer as a result. FX moved as well, but at the tiny rate it moved, it might as well have not moved.
Spot on. Also China officials were hitting the wires with only positive comments about the economy. The way FX (AUD) failed rally as it normally would was a little surprising. Copper got rocked and rallied on that Industrial Production number.

Assuming the pattern on XAUUSD H4 holds, I'd only be looking for levels to sell gold this early in the week.
I agree here. I'm only looking at selling because I think the USD has been way oversold. Additionally, there's no way the market doesn't come to its senses and starts to price out any chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. When that happens gold should see some heavy downward price pressures.

Barring anything what will increase uncertainty in the near term (with Trump, anything is possible), I think touch 1405 support is do-able.
Looking forward to more insights as the week goes on. Tomorrow is probably going to set the tone with Retail Sales, then Powell speaking. Good luck sir!

skenobi Jul 15, 2019 9:36pm | Post# 47

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{quote} Spot on. Also China officials were hitting the wires with only positive comments about the economy. The way FX (AUD) failed rally as it normally would was a little surprising. Copper got rocked and rallied on that Industrial Production number. {quote} I agree here. I'm only looking at selling because I think the USD has been way oversold. Additionally, there's no way the market doesn't come to its senses and starts to price out any chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. When that happens gold should see some heavy downward price pressures....
Thanks for your feedback!

As for Powell's speech this week, he doesn't strike me as a James-Comey-type drama queen i.e. I don't think he'll insert policy clues in the speech he's about to give. But we'll see.

For context here are my never-changing H4 and H1 S/R levels:

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The ceiling at 1415 is holding firm. I don't expect the correction to the usual suspect 1400 level until after markets "get over" Powell and the "bogus-ness" (for lack of a better word) of the US retails sales figures.

Even if uncertainty returns in force, am banking on spot NOT breaking higher than 1425-30.

Gold simply doesn't have enough gas.

So for now, 1400 is the target.

For intraday levels, I present the M15 chart:

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I"m not showing M5 charts because I think scalping spot gold is rather pointless for most retail traders.

But if there's enough demand, say, from 4-5 more traders, I'll post the M5 from then on.

skenobi Jul 17, 2019 12:50am | Post# 48

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Gold is coming off from 1413 in the H4 and H1, and is already stalling above H1 support around 1404 (the bottom of the yellow box in H1).

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I'm still calling for a touch of 1400 if only because human beings soooo love round number targets.

If you're suitably daring, you might catch a long position near 1400 for a quick 5-6 dollar profit (assuming you haven't done so a few hours ago).

I suspect if you missed that drop, you might not see it again in this session, especially if you're "feelin" how price action is behaving in M15 below.

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Drilling down to M5, I'm seeing price action pivoting around 1405 for the time being with some nice scalps to be expected.

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skenobi Jul 17, 2019 9:39pm | Post# 49

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Gold is riding on a sliver of a whiff of USD weakness, purportedly on the back of weak US housing stats.

Price is presently stalling at a familiar ceiling on the H4 (no surprises there).

And all my S/R levels on all four timeframes of reference are still being respected (no surprises there, either).

Just about the only time I see "strength" in the housing market is on the HGTV cable channel. Go figure.

Will US jobless claims and the UMichigan indices make themselves relevant again and take gold above 1430?

I'm taking new shorts with a tight stop above 35. (call me crazy)

It's only Thursday!

Anyways, here are my (again) never-changing S/R levels for today.

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skenobi Jul 22, 2019 12:40am | Post# 50

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So my SL buy stop at 1435 was taken out. Price action triggered a fresh buy stop above 1440, but I closed it out early at 1446 to more or less breakeven out of this misadventure.

And of course, my S/L remained respected all the way.

As you can see from the H4 chart, price action completed a whole set (to the top of the last pink box) before coming back off to rest on the previous resistance-turned-support zone around 1425-30.

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A couple of things in play here: dovish comments out of the Fed implying the need for more pre-emptive rate action especially if data shows the economy is slowing down. While a 25bp rate cut is now fully priced-in, more market players are paying up the odds for a one-time 50bp cut instead.

And then there's the intel that gold has been in demand from central banks anyway over the past couple of months. With G7 sovereign debt now bearing negative yields, bonds begin to lose their appeal to investors.

Will price try for higher levels? Sure, why not?

Look at the Daily chart.

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Assuming the support in the 1425-30 zone stays firm, gold can make for 1485 if the 1450 ceiling clears.

For intraday levels, I present the following:
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skenobi Jul 23, 2019 12:33am | Post# 51

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So gold went higher yesterday purportedly on the back of a weaker dollar.

Does today's price action mean yesterday's reading of recent dovish Fed comments had become irrelevant?

I don't know. I just like that my S/R levels are still holding.

For XAUUSD to have a chance of reaching 1485, the 1450 ceiling on the D1 has to clear first with a convincing close above.

That's still possible as long as 1415 support holds.

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The H4 and H1 charts look a little shaky, however. Despite hearing of firm bids at current levels (around 1420), we're "feeling" some weak sell stops below 1415 to be tested all the way to 1400. Late bulls will need to be cautious.

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In both M15 and M5 charts below, I get the sense support between 1410-15 is key to maintain gold's bullish outlook. Watch out for the uncompleted sets in the H4 and H1 charts above.

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skenobi Jul 23, 2019 10:53pm | Post# 52

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1415 support is holding well on XAUUSD, but do still watch out for stop runs for 1410.

That 1415 level seems to be "artificially" supported (i.e. price seems to "refuse" to touch the 1410 target), which to me is another sign the support is "serious".

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I mentioned yesterday spot may try to break above 1450 if 15 holds. I based that opinion solely on the Daily chart; H4 levels show spot may have a bit of work to do before that happens.

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But the way price is stalling above supports in the nearer timeframes from H1 and below (charts below) gives me hope that markets are setting up for another buy leg.

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skenobi Jul 24, 2019 1:58am | Post# 53

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(The following comment is just to add some context to my general gold commentary)

EURUSD is testing the 1.1145 bottom of the range target as per the Weekly chart.
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Note that the S/R levels on the W1 chart is exactly the same as on the Daily chart in whatever pair I'm looking at.

The 1.1145 S/R level features prominently across all the timeframes we're looking at today, which likely means price will be stuck here for a while as the ECB doesn't normally have any flair for dramatics.

Unless Trump speaks, maybe.

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According to the press, the euro is pressured by expectations for a rate cut from the ECB tomorrow, whereas the dollar is supported by Fed rate cut hopes filtering into the stock market.

The above is an example of why I only point out what's in the news but I don't necessarily believe the causality.

In other news, Boris Johnson is now PM of the UK, and I get the impression the markets are still hoping against hope.

Today's S/R levels for the other pairs are as follows:
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skenobi Jul 25, 2019 4:08am | Post# 54

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Gold is steadily holding its bid tone, bouncing off 1415, the level I called "artificial" about 2 posts back.

The only fundamentals in play: economic data in the toilet, prompting expectations of lower interest rates from the central banks of major economies.

Price action on H4 and H1 charts looks a little flat.

Just about the only useful charts today are the M15 and M5 charts, along with the S/R levels therein.

Scroll all the way to the bottom for those two timeframes.

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skenobi Jul 26, 2019 4:15am | Post# 55

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Gold dropped below 1415 after ECB looked like they're not in a hurry to expand interest rate stimulus. But price recovered back above because it seems markets think they know better than a bunch of central bankers.

What did I think? I never thought the ECB would do anything.

I think I'd mentioned before: they're not drama queens.

I did think markets would be disappointed, but I didn't think price would drop below 1415. I did place a small limit bid at 1412, which I didn't expect to be hit.

I should've placed a bigger order.

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