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-   -   XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread (https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=222032)

XTrade Apr 27, 2010 8:13pm | Post# 1

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
 
2 Attachment(s)
Here is the break off - The first chart is Gold spot with Euro/USD price overlay
second is Gold Spot with DXY overlay
Click to Enlarge

Name: GOLD_EURO_over_break_corr.GIF
Size: 36 KB
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Name: GOLD_DXY_over_correlation.GIF
Size: 36 KB

XTrade Apr 27, 2010 8:24pm | Post# 2

1165
 
I like it as immediate support so far.... Only problem with Gold and immediate supports is they cannot be as firm when less established and the price
"may" dip thru by a buck or 2. Now if we pullback to 1065 and fail, there may be a nice short in there, if one is game, orders can be placed accordingly.
I would look below 1163.
I may try and straddle this trade if the PA permits (should have taken @ 1170 but un-able) so will hld out.

Buying dip (1166.70) still long from last night where I focused on 1145 as support now with trailing stop attached so I am free to move around.

we are 20 bucks higher so using caution...

__UnknowN__ Apr 27, 2010 9:30pm | Post# 3

hey XTrade

what are your thoughts on Gold continuing to diverge with the other metals in the coming weeks?

Silver traded very heavily today and does not feel like it wants to go any higher, unlike gold.

XTrade Apr 28, 2010 1:08am | Post# 4

Hey, Glad to see your first post is here,

That is a tricky one. Well first off one of the largest short positions in silver is JPmorgan. I would say that has a "bit" to do with the price suppression and the reason why silver should be plus 22 right now and is not.

As a physical investment silver has YET to have it's day. Gold has been and always will be sought after. Don't get me wrong there is plenty of manipulation in gold. BUT, over the years as an investment/ longer term trade -there is simply NOTHING the banks can do to devalue gold further than they already have.
It WILL continue to rise.

Gold is now a heavily traded commodity, when in the old days it was only used as a hedge against inflation and a way to keep ones purchasing power.

Let's be realistic, the dollar @ 80 is nothing - the dollar at 95 will be something.

SO, I'd say this. IF foreign currencies namely EURO and GBP continue to plunge there will be a major influx of money, new and old into GOLD.

If foreign currencies go up, this will create more stress on the dollar and
the DXY will be down. Thus attracting more people to gold.

So what we have here is somehwhat of a paradox. This is when gold will as it has begun to againg find it's own way, safe from the Euro and safe from the USD.

Yet, that equals no move real move besides up and down. Not that simple though,
Gold has many, many, industrial applications and is the BEST metal to use in many. The computer you type on has gold in it on the chips.
The above ground supply is slim and the output of mines is not high. Miners of Gold and Copper are stox to watch or buy IMO,"green" companies and
Railcar / rail freights like CSX

To end. This uncertainty in the worlds fiat currencies will ultimatly push the price of gold higher. Silver. Is quite undervalued, with even more tangible industrial application besides jewelry for both. silver "may" at some point outshine gold thru percentages.


hey XTrade
what are your thoughts on Gold continuing to diverge with the other metals in the coming weeks?
Silver traded very heavily today and does not feel like it wants to go any higher, unlike gold.

steroidman Apr 28, 2010 8:09am | Post# 5

Gold is the worlds best superconductor. Nano colloidal gold which I manufacture(and is the best in the world by a head, shoulder and a torso) has benefits that only the elite of the elite are aware of.

But at the same time, several inventors(including mine) have come up with satellite systems that delineate exactly where water, oil, gold, silver etc.. are. Notice how junior gold companies with billions of dollars sit idly by on old paradigms waiting to be bought out or jved like in recent past, and are avoided and NOT sought after.

There is a reason for it. The GOLD crash, and the US dollar bull market will take everyone by surprise. It always DOES>

Only those that attended the secret gold conference for 300,000 a ticket I would imagine are on the short side.

XTrade Apr 28, 2010 3:52pm | Post# 6

You are forgetting the very real possibility of a continued and simultaneous move up by both the USD and Gold, as we have seen recently. A few posts back I added some charts illustrating this.

Too strong of a USD has negative affects on the US as well, for one our goods/ services exported become more expensive (not like we have all that much anyway!) Affects on oil, etc.

Yet a higher gold price affects none of these things. Holding dollars long term can not in my opinion outweigh the benefits of the latter, Gold.


...............
There is a reason for it. The GOLD crash, and the US dollar bull market will take everyone by surprise. It always DOES>

..........

XTrade Apr 30, 2010 1:58am | Post# 7

Helllo All
 
GOLD! GOLD! GOLD!!!

Wheeeew!!! Usually I would not express my sentiments this way but everyone has to have a bit of fun eh'!?

Being out, without constant spot price feed, is annoying and liberating at the same time.

My Damn battery ran out!

In Any case, I am home now and anxiously awaiting LDN open.

All Trades this round have ended in Green Pips with TP @ 72
This was in fact nice to come in to!

We ARE on the way to A NEW HIGH to be reached by gold. If you like hop on and enjoy the ride!


Perhaps profit taking Friday? May see a drop at some point ... which I will
be looking to buy and chiming in here if possible.

XTrade Apr 30, 2010 8:04pm | Post# 8

Important Bullish Close for GOLD!
 
1 Attachment(s)
Hello all!
Gold closed above important technical resistance levels near 1170/5
hitting a new 5 month high - New York spot of 1183 per troy oz.

This is a bullish "hat trick" (3 goals in a row) Daily, Weekly & Monthly!

It has been a great week for gold and we are currently in trading in a new uptrend channel with (as of yet) clearly defined, moving support, resistance and midpoint areas.

I have prepared a chart outlining this view. I am trying to gather some articles/ commentary, this recent action and bullish close is not something to be overlooked by those who trade gold.

Also, we are now supported by the old resistance level @ 1065 in the near term, with additional S/R levels in between, further support is less $20 @ 1145.

Silver is now further poised to take 19 and platinum, 1800 next hurdle.
Palladium has virtually erased all losses from the bearish move down started in 08 - closing the week @549

Will be adding charts and commentary.
X
Name:  Metals_close_Friday_April_30th.GIF
Views: 23032
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XTrade May 2, 2010 9:56am | Post# 9

Some Commentary
 
Here is the link.



This coming week should prove interesting. Mind your shorts.

Technically, June Comex gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term and longer-term technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Chart resistance for June gold is located at Friday's high of $1,182.50 and then at $1,190.00. The next major upside price objective for the gold market bulls is to produce a daily close above psychological resistance at $1,200.00 an ounce. Above that lies strong chart resistance at the all-time high of $1,227.50, basis nearby Comex gold futures, which was scored in December of 2009.

XTrade May 3, 2010 6:19am | Post# 10

2 Attachment(s)
Not Much going on right now. (London and JPY bank holidays)

Finally this tight range is breaking. Price opened lower only by appx
$1.00 per oz of the yellow metal. THis is Bullish.

Here are current H4 and H1 charts, I am testing support @ 1175 area with a small buy.

Moving Avg support 50 & 200 emas support Gold on this chart and even more clearly on the H1

Daily / Monthly - Important bullish close.

So far Euro still weak even after bailout news EDIT -- DXY Up Gold holds spot is now in the green - Likely Euro will gain some this week pushing the DX a bit lower.. Clearly it is not in tight inverse relation with Gold spot ATM.

We would need to First take out 1175 in the immediate-
Next the channel- Further 1165 and 1145 lower 1123 for me to even consider
this move is not creating a 1200 retest if not a new high.

Good Luck!
X
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Name: XAU_h4_continued_BULL_areas.GIF
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Cotton-I-Jo May 3, 2010 10:56am | Post# 11

SILVER
 
1 Attachment(s)
Hope that it works as well......










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Name: Silver - H4.gif
Size: 32 KB

Dan Gilbert May 3, 2010 9:45pm | Post# 12

1 Attachment(s)
I took this J16 price action style silver trade. Went off without a hitch...

moved stop to B/E at first blue highlight, closed full position at the second blue highlight


EDIT: demo account
Click to Enlarge

Name: perfectsilvertrade.GIF
Size: 40 KB

XTrade May 4, 2010 1:38am | Post# 13

Hey Guys,
Thanks for posting,

I am bullish silver as well. THere have been many great setups resulting in nice profit with a little patience.

Ultimately I wan't to see a breach and close of the 19.50 area, perhaps with pullback to 18 / at worst 17.50 next a move above 22 (old recent high area).

Silver offers lately the opportunity to take larger positions with less risk of a headfake / whipsaw.

Gold is pulling back slightly in early Aussie/Asian Markets.

Many are looking for a pullback to get long.

Something I am pondering for the gold price affect now is the Effect of the withdraw of dollars from Foreign currency shorts, IE - EUR & GBP to cover shorts in turn buying the risk.

Gold has proven it works its own way as of late. Offering up opps when USD is UP and DOWNSKI!

XTrade May 4, 2010 3:05am | Post# 14

1180
 
1180 is turning out to be minimal support, I am looking to see what happens @ 1175 With possible manual order in this area and a stop below 1165.

I will not trust shorts until aforementioned levels are disturbed.

Otherwise I will look for more buying opps and keep posting here!

XTrade May 4, 2010 3:49am | Post# 15

Notes on GOLD trading
 
Gold moves sideways A LOT.

Thus I am not very dependent on Trend Lines

Unless they are enforced by a day or 2 of trading,

GOLD also can range for several days.
Gold does sell off even in bull markets
GOLD does not always behave the way a trader may want. OR rather what is suggested thru charting, I always factor in a buck or 2 move on S/R
GOLD does work well with enforced and strong Support & Resistance levels.

Bolding:
TL -
S/R

XTrade May 4, 2010 4:39am | Post# 16

At this rate the Euro will break 3000 into the 29s befor turnaround and the pound .4500 this would put the DXY @ appx 85 and Gold over 1200...

Bearish activity continues for the "euro" zone and cable...

Even after bailout Euro seems to be on a path for disaster. Yet I will not be surprised to see it up 100 pips tomorrow. Then go short! LOL

XTrade May 4, 2010 4:50am | Post# 17

Going to test a small long out here, prior long hit TP.
we did HIT A NEW HIGH YESterDAY!
Long @ 1179
SL area below 1175

TP 1188 or manual close 1187 - 1190

XTrade May 4, 2010 5:35am | Post# 18

Now a 400 pip trade GOLD is breaking back above the current mid point
!!!!!bREAKING OUT!
Going to test a small long out here, prior long hit TP.
we did HIT A NEW HIGH YESterDAY!
Long @ 1179
SL area below 1175

TP 1188 or manual close 1187 - 1190

XTrade May 4, 2010 5:52am | Post# 19

1 Attachment(s)
Here is the pic/chart, forgot to post my older entry.

We are now above 600 pips which is about - 6 bucks/USD Gold "price" move. Not a bad trade.

USE YOUR DISCRETION. I have taken .1 off the lower entry
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Name: XAU_mytrades_b4breakout.GIF
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XTrade May 4, 2010 6:13am | Post# 20

Xau_xplode
 
WE are EXPLODING HERE!

Prior entry now over 750 pips - NO real signs of resistance in the way
besides pure psych level 1200 next 1225 real resist,
1190 may offer a hitch as we just basically hit it!

XTrade May 4, 2010 9:37am | Post# 21

Gold,
 
Gold, coming off a tad from session highs above 1190,
currently trading @ appx 1185, closed these out @ appx 1190 -so we hit 1000 pips; Usually what I strive to catch 10 and 20 $ moves or 500 pip scalps.


Likely, looking to buy again after a little watching. Euro continues to print fresh yearly lows, cable getting crushed. Swissy finally breaks 1.09

Here is the pic/chart, forgot to post my older entry.

We are now above 600 pips which is about - 6 bucks/USD Gold "price" move. Not a bad trade.

USE YOUR DISCRETION. I have taken .1 off the lower entry

__UnknowN__ May 4, 2010 10:02am | Post# 22

silver
 
sigh @ silver dragging gold down again

looks like a repeat of last week. ill be looking to buy some gold next week when silver stops going down

XTrade May 4, 2010 11:23am | Post# 23

DOW, S&P, Commodities IE: Gold / Metals & Oil taking a hit this morning

Currently DOW down 242.75

Certain profit taking on Gold this AM after the 1190 hit.


Fear evident in market sentiments today

Obama discussing financials live also helps PLUNGE MARKETS LOL!!!!

Rumors of Spain needing bailout $$ - Euro / Germany still needs to make decision on Euro aid for Greece. This is the main FEAR factor,
EU uncertainty

VIX rockets

XTrade May 4, 2010 11:46am | Post# 24

Yeah silver took a whack this am.

Watching to see if Euro breaks .30

Looking for entry on Gold, things a bit volatile still.

May get back in above 1175. This will not last.

sigh @ silver dragging gold down again

looks like a repeat of last week. ill be looking to buy some gold next week when silver stops going down

ddinnov May 4, 2010 11:56am | Post# 25

1 Attachment(s)
Yeah silver took a whack this am.

Watching to see if Euro breaks .30

Looking for entry on Gold, things a bit volatile still.

May get back in above 1175. This will not last.
I went long at 1173.5, I have a different feed to most people as my 4H candle closes 1 hour before the US and Europe I think but the current candle that changed 1 hour ago looks like this:

I'm looking to get my stop to B/E ASAP
Click to Enlarge

Name: gold.gif
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XTrade May 4, 2010 12:00pm | Post# 26

Yes, Agree with that one (stop to BE).. I am with you on this Took entry as well @ 1175.

London closed now If nothing else I am expecting at least 1180 to 1185

Need to go out for a bit and may add trailing stop as well

I went long at 1173.5, I have a different feed to most people as my 4H candle closes 1 hour before the US and Europe I think but the current candle that changed 1 hour ago looks like this:

I'm looking to get my stop to B/E ASAP

ddinnov May 4, 2010 12:06pm | Post# 27

Yes, Agree with that one (stop to BE).. I am with you on this Took entry as well @ 1175.

London closed now If nothing else I am expecting at least 1180 to 1185
Yes that would be nice - seems to be creeping back up now. Stop is at B/E hope it doesn't get stopped out. haven't checked for news for the rest of the day - I hope we've had enough craziness for 1 day.

Speaking of craziness - someone I follow on Twitter just linked this:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...Catalyst_.html

XTrade May 4, 2010 12:08pm | Post# 28

Brief commentary quote
 
Quick read
By Jim Wyckoff
04 May 2010, 10:53 a.m.
Profit-taking pressure has hit the gold futures market Tuesday, as some traders decided to ring the cash register after recent solid gains that pushed June futures prices to a fresh five-month high of $1,193.80 early on.

June gold was last traded down $7.00 an ounce at $1,176.20. Sharp gains in the U.S. dollar index are also adding to some selling interest in gold Tuesday. The dollar index hit a fresh 12-month high and the Euro currency hit a fresh 12-month low amid the European Union's debt crisis...

XTrade May 4, 2010 12:42pm | Post# 29

1 Attachment(s)
Things are really shaken up today... This could take more time than I anticipated...

Thinking we may see 1165

Silver looks VERY tempting....
Click to Enlarge

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XTrade May 4, 2010 1:00pm | Post# 30

All and all, we are still inside the upside channel,
coming up on some supports and MA support.

These selloffs have become somewhat typical after steep upmoves,
usually triggered on fundies and profit taking. & General market movements. DOW getting Killed today.
OH and FEAR!

Working on chart

steroidman May 4, 2010 1:20pm | Post# 31

Gold is the worlds best superconductor. Nano colloidal gold which I manufacture(and is the best in the world by a head, shoulder and a torso) has benefits that only the elite of the elite are aware of.

But at the same time, several inventors(including mine) have come up with satellite systems that delineate exactly where water, oil, gold, silver etc.. are. Notice how junior gold companies with billions of dollars sit idly by on old paradigms waiting to be bought out or jved like in recent past, and are avoided and NOT sought after.

There is...
Hope you are all enjoying the gold crash. As predicted. Again, the tell was the junior miners with the one and two million ounce deposits with 43-101's getting nothing from no one( I know that is bad english).

The attendees of the 300,000 US dollar a person gold conference knew this in advance. IMO.

vioilaunch May 4, 2010 1:24pm | Post# 32

I've been following the Commodities and Stocks forum for a while and I'd like to thank you all (esp. Xtrade) for your inspiring posts. For a newbie like me, it's really great to see other data, strategies and fresh news.
Concerning this move down, I think we should stay above 1165 in order to continue attacking 1200. However, with NFP, european debt issues and cartel reacting to getting closer to highs, we will have some stormy waves to ride on..
Steroidman, this not at all a gold crash. You haven't seen anything yet...If Europe's problems continue, China revalues and the US sits on a pile of notes...the world may have to reconsider gold's role in the whole global system.. It is the only real value, and it must be put on its rightful place..

XTrade May 4, 2010 1:26pm | Post# 33

We just hit 1190, (this AM) now there is a dip on market FEAR.

$14 dip is Not much of a crash!

Hope you are all enjoying the gold crash. As predicted. Again, the tell was the junior miners with the one and two million ounce deposits with 43-101's getting nothing from no one( I know that is bad english).

The attendees of the 300,000 US dollar a person gold conference knew this in advance. IMO.

XTrade May 4, 2010 1:34pm | Post# 34

You are welcome, Glad to see you enjoy the thread. Yes I agree with your sentiments. Looks like things are slowed a bit now and about to turn up

I've been following the Commodities and Stocks forum for a while and I'd like to thank you for your inspiring posts. For a newbie like me, it's really great to see other data, strategies and fresh news.
Concerning this move down, I think we should stay above 1165 in order to continue attacking 1200. However, with NFP, european debt issues and cartel reacting to getting closer to highs, we will have some stormy waves to ride on..

ddinnov May 4, 2010 1:53pm | Post# 35

I've been following the Commodities and Stocks forum for a while and I'd like to thank you all (esp. Xtrade) for your inspiring posts. For a newbie like me, it's really great to see other data, strategies and fresh news.
Concerning this move down, I think we should stay above 1165 in order to continue attacking 1200. However, with NFP, european debt issues and cartel reacting to getting closer to highs, we will have some stormy waves to ride on..
Steroidman,...
Don't forget there's the UK general election on Thursday as well

Iiiiit's crazy week!

__UnknowN__ May 4, 2010 5:02pm | Post# 36

There is like 0 chance silver goes up in the next few days but I dont have the balls to short it lol

steroidman May 4, 2010 8:15pm | Post# 37

Still short, although we could see a dead cat.

XTrade May 5, 2010 3:50am | Post# 38

Yeah, Yeah, Just the same as gold has been the LONG trade (1090) from 1110 thru 1145 thru 1190 now there is a short opp.

Welp!/?

That's the market for ya!

My outlooks have been posted on every #Group of this thread. But I will retrieve them and put into post with my next long..

X

XTrade May 5, 2010 3:54am | Post# 39

WHAT we have right now on H! is one side. -- actually the "bearish" side of a forming Cup & Handle.

This will mean,
Sideways with Accumulation,
Breakout, --- Likely Hitting more new highs ---
Selloff,
New support established,
End pattern

XTrade May 5, 2010 3:59am | Post# 40

I will be looking to watch about another 15 minutes more then scooping longs.

The CUP will have a bottom. It is getting placed now @ 1165.

Should we break that the next Solid support is 1145 and Gold is not dropping
another 20 Bucks on EURO markets with..etc.....etc.....Greece......Spain.....credit.........portugal......


Would be looking @ potential OIL / WTI and Brent Crude longs as well ATM


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