Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until                                        
8:30 a.m. (EDT) April 10, 2020                 USDL-20-0568

Technical information: (202) 691-7000  •  cpi_info@bls.gov  •  www.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact:         (202) 691-5902  •  PressOffice@bls.gov 

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – MARCH 2020

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.4 percent in
March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since January
2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

A sharp decline in the gasoline index was a major cause of the monthly decrease in
the seasonally adjusted all items index, with decreases in the indexes for airline
fares, lodging away from home, and apparel also contributing. The energy index
fell 5.8 percent as the gasoline index decreased 10.5 percent. The food index rose
in March, increasing 0.3 percent as the food at home index rose 0.5 percent. 

The index for all items less food and energy fell 0.1 percent in March, its first
monthly decline since January 2010. Along with the indexes for airline fares,
lodging away from home, and apparel, the index for new vehicles declined in March.
The index for shelter was unchanged, with increases in the indexes for rent and
for owners’ equivalent rent offsetting the aforementioned decline in the index for
lodging away from home. Indexes that increased in March include medical care, used
cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance, and education.  

The all items index increased 1.5 percent for the 12 months ending March, a
notably smaller increase than the 2.3-percent increase for the period ending
February. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the
last 12 months. The food index rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the
energy index declined 5.7 percent.


 Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
 average
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                  Seasonally adjusted changes from             
                                          preceding month                      
                                                                          Un-  
                                                                       adjusted
                                                                        12-mos.
                              Sep.  Oct.  Nov.  Dec.  Jan.  Feb.  Mar.   ended 
                              2019  2019  2019  2019  2020  2020  2020   Mar.  
                                                                         2020  
                                                                               
                                                                               
 All items..................    .1    .2    .2    .2    .1    .1   -.4      1.5
  Food......................    .2    .2    .1    .2    .2    .4    .3      1.9
   Food at home.............    .1    .2    .1    .0    .1    .5    .5      1.1
   Food away from home (1)..    .3    .2    .2    .3    .4    .2    .2      3.0
  Energy....................   -.8   1.7    .8   1.6   -.7  -2.0  -5.8     -5.7
   Energy commodities.......  -1.5   2.6   1.2   3.0  -1.6  -3.5 -10.4    -10.4
    Gasoline (all types)....  -1.5   2.7   1.2   3.1  -1.6  -3.4 -10.5    -10.2
    Fuel oil................   -.6   1.1   1.0   1.1   -.4  -8.5 -13.7    -20.1
   Energy services..........    .1    .7    .2   -.2    .6   -.3   -.5      -.5
    Electricity.............    .2    .6    .2   -.2    .4   -.1   -.2       .2
    Utility (piped) gas                                                        
       service..............   -.2   1.2    .5   -.5   1.0   -.9  -1.4     -2.9
  All items less food and                                                      
     energy.................    .2    .1    .2    .1    .2    .2   -.1      2.1
   Commodities less food and                                                   
      energy commodities....    .0   -.4   -.1    .0    .0    .2   -.3      -.2
    New vehicles............   -.1   -.1   -.1    .1    .0    .1   -.4      -.4
    Used cars and trucks....    .6  -1.2   -.7   -.4  -1.2    .4    .8       .1
    Apparel.................   -.3  -1.7    .6    .1    .7    .4  -2.0     -1.6
    Medical care commodities   -.1   1.0    .0   1.0   -.6   -.6    .0      1.3
   Services less energy                                                        
      services..............    .2    .3    .3    .2    .3    .2    .0      2.8
    Shelter.................    .3    .1    .3    .2    .4    .3    .0      3.0
    Transportation services     .2    .1    .0   -.1    .3    .3  -1.9      -.7
    Medical care services...    .4    .8    .4    .3    .3    .3    .5      5.5

   1 Not seasonally adjusted.

 
Food

The food index increased 0.3 percent in March, after rising 0.4 percent in February.
The index for food at home increased 0.5 percent in March, the same increase as the
prior month. All six major grocery store food group indexes increased in March. The
index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.9 percent, its third consecutive increase.
The index for fruits and vegetables rose 0.8 percent in March after being unchanged
in February. 

The index for dairy and related products continued to rise, increasing 0.6 percent
in March after a 1.1-percent increase in February. The index for other food at
home also rose 0.6 percent over the month, and the indexes for cereals and bakery
products and for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs each increased 0.1 percent.  

The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in March, the same increase as
the prior month. The index for limited service meals rose 0.4 percent, while the
index for full service meals was unchanged in March.

The food at home index increased 1.1 percent over the last 12 months. The index
for dairy and related products increased 3.7 percent over the last year. The index
for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 2.3 percent, with the beef index increasing
3.8 percent. The indexes for nonalcoholic beverages and for other food at home both
rose 1.4 percent over the last 12 months, while the index for cereals and bakery
products increased slightly, rising 0.1 percent. The fruits and vegetables index
declined 1.9 percent, with the fresh fruits index falling 3.5 percent. The index
for food away from home rose 3.0 percent over the last year. The index for full
service meals increased 3.2 percent and the index for limited service meals rose
2.8 percent over the last 12 months.

Energy

The energy index declined 5.8 percent in March, its largest monthly decrease since
January 2015. The gasoline index fell for the third month in a row, declining 10.5
percent; before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 7.4 percent. The other
major energy component indexes also declined in March. The index for fuel oil
declined sharply, falling 13.7 percent. The index for natural gas fell 1.4 percent,
and the electricity index decreased 0.2 percent. 

The energy index fell 5.7 percent over the past 12 months, its largest 12-month
decline since the period ending August 2016. The gasoline index decreased 10.2
percent, while the fuel oil index fell 20.1 percent. The index for natural gas
declined more modestly, falling 2.9 percent. The electricity index increased
slightly over the last 12 months, rising 0.2 percent. 
 
All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy decreased 0.1 percent in March. The
shelter index was unchanged in March. The indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent
rent both increased 0.3 percent, but were offset by a 6.8-percent decline in the
index for lodging away from home. The airline fares index declined sharply in March,
falling 12.6 percent following a 0.3-percent decline in February. The apparel index
fell 2.0 percent in March after rising in each of the prior 4 months. The index for
new vehicles fell 0.4 percent in March after rising in February.

The medical care index rose 0.4 percent in March, though its component indexes were
mixed. The index for physicians’ services rose 0.3 percent, and the index for
hospital services increased 0.4 percent. The prescription drugs index, however,
decreased 0.2 percent. The index for used cars and trucks increased 0.8 percent in
March, and the index for motor vehicle insurance rose 0.6 percent. The indexes for
education, recreation, tobacco, alcoholic beverages, and personal care all also
increased in March.  

The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the past 12 months.
The shelter index rose 3.0 percent over the 12-month span, and the medical care
index rose 4.7 percent. Indexes that declined over the past 12 months include
airline fares (-10.6 percent), apparel (-1.6 percent), and new vehicles (-0.4
percent). 

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.5 percent over
the last 12 months to an index level of 258.115 (1982-84=100). For the month, the
index decreased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.  

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
increased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 251.375
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index decreased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal
adjustment.  

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 1.3
percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index decreased 0.3 percent on
a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to
12 months are subject to revision. 

_______________
The Consumer Price Index for April 2020 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday,
May 12, 2020 at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
 
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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on March 2020 Consumer Price Index Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) program suspended data collection by personal visit
on March 16, 2020. When possible, data normally collected by personal visit were
collected either online or by phone. Additionally, data collection in March was
affected by the temporary closing or limited operations of certain types of
establishments. These factors resulted in an increase in the number of prices being
considered temporarily unavailable and imputed. While the CPI program attempted to
collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on smaller amounts of
collected prices than usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally
published were not published this month. Additional information is available at
www.bls.gov/bls/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-bls-price-indexes.htm#CPI.

Specific information about the impact of COVID-19 on March 2020 CPI data collection is
available at www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/covid19-statement-march-2020.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Technical Note

Brief Explanation of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers 
for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two 
population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical 
workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total 
U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of 
urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, 
the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical 
workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in 
rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and 
those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation 
for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price 
Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for 
All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U). 

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is 
based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that 
meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household's income must come 
from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household's earners 
must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months. The 
CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S. population and is 
a subset of the CPI-U population.

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, 
doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people 
buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas 
across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail 
establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and 
other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated 
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and 
a few other items are obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most 
other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest 
geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and 
services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls by the Bureau’s 
trained representatives.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location 
are aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending 
of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a 
U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published 
by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions 
and population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not 
measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the 
average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U, 
data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered 
final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to 
three subsequent quarterly revisions. 

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the 
CPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base 
for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.  An increase of 7 percent from the 
reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship 
can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and 
services rising from $100 to $107. 

Sampling Error in the CPI

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is 
based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. 
BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-
month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error 
estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. 
For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 
percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from 
the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a 
percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these estimates will be 
within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices. 
For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 
95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices 
would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including 
information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see 
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm. 

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent 
changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are 
affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period, while percent 
changes are not. 

The following table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent 
changes:

				Item A  		Item B  		  Item C
Year I 				112.500 		225.000 		  110.000
Year II 			121.500 		243.000 		  128.000
Change in index points 		9.000 			18.000 			  18.000
Percent change 			9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0  18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4

Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. 
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-
SEATS seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new 
factors are used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors 
are available at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2020.pdf. 
For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal 
Adjustment at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the 
Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at 
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm. 

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are 
usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the 
same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting 
from weather events, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This 
allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The 
unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they 
actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many 
collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation 
changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises 
against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally 
adjusted series are revised annually.

Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some 
CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal 
pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which 
the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior 
to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately 
represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data. 

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 
2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this 
outlier data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal 
portion of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data 
prior to seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this 
“prior adjusted” data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal 
pattern in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the 
unadjusted data.

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2020, BLS adjusted 53 series using intervention 
analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, 
electricity, and vehicles. 

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject 
to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI 
calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 
years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to 
be final and not subject to revision. For January 2020, revised seasonal factors and seasonally 
adjusted indexes for 2015 to 2019 were calculated and published. For series which are directly 
adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors 
for 2019 will be applied to data for 2020 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2020 indexes. 
Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series 
have seasonal factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance. 

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical 
criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its 
status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 
81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status 
from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used 
in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted 
indexes before that period will not be changed. Twenty-eight of the 81 components of the U.S. 
city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2020.

Contact Information

For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information 
and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov. 

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit 
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section 
at 202-691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov. 

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon 
request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339.