Trump Trade Adviser Navarro: No 50% steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada tomorrow

America is not in good hands

si elle l'est. enfin

If you’re struggling to comprehend what’s in play .

Here’s the rule book :

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/doc...ing_System.pdf

Irrespective of the rights or wrongs of the current administration/policy this is what’s happening to the markets now .

Read it thoroughly , understand the nuances and look at the prognosis.

People/ retail traders are absorbed in the political ramifications , too busy bickering and are forgetting or not comprehending the global change in play .

yeah not god

So the white house immediately contradicted what Navarro said

He isn't even on the same page as his advisors, except for Elon, I guess.

Vancarbon
“Because tariffs are usd-positive, it will be important for investors to understand the sequencing of reforms to the international trading system. The dollar is likely to strenghten before it reverses, if it does so.”

How is this correct?

Great link, Van! Suggest start by reading the Conclusions.

I read the whole policy document when it was released Ryder . I’m trading accordingly from the release date and leaving the noise of this forum outside of any trading decisions.

It’s literally a blueprint , of course there’s always variables in play which require attention , as a trader you couldn’t ask for more.

LOL, Ontario Premier already caved and gave up:

"Ontario Premier Doug Ford agreed to suspend a surcharge on electricity exports to US states a few hours after Trump threatened retaliation against Canada."

What would you say changed in the way you are trading?
Where do you see the dollar going?

With all due respect guest . I’m not here to give trading advice or get involved in political discussions/allegiances . The document is self explanatory,. I’ll reiterate , read it, understand it and look at the implementation phase and conclusion.

Very informative, thanks. I can easily agree with the author but, as with most things in economics, there is always a counter-model/study/argument.
There were some studies out in 21 pointing to tariffs demonstrably increasing import prices overall ie. the currency offset argument could be wrong (also macro's were very differnt at the time).

A 'Mar-a-lago accord' assumes international cooperation that imho is extremely unlikely. Who wants to take on us interest rate risk? Retaliatory tariffs (as we are seeing) AND currency interventions (what could china do) will not help US partners readily agree to such accords (facing increasing and to some extent unknown risk).

The manufacturing story is compelling, but that focus could damage, or at least not continue to offer the same levels of support to high value services (a major us strength). And, protectionism may reduce innovation.

There is also risk to the usd hegemony. Trust/belief (take your pick) erosion accelerating BRICS or some alternative (thinking the crypto mob would love this) reserve currency play.

If the dollar is dramatically weakened, isn't there a risk of borrowing cost increases? At the same time as tax cuts, will we see a us truss moment? (At least the tory party got shot of that sh1t-show pretty quick - but i think the us would be stuck for longer).

Using leverage of security for trade consessions is conflating issues, each very complex and each stands alone. This seems like weak diplomacy risking US geopol power e.g. eu allies are coming out in distrust of the us, and may well prioritise autonomy over compliance.

As you say, this does look like a blueprint of current us policy shift, but the elected (and non elected) players do not seem qualified (a hammer when a scalpel is needed).

It's a useful map of the terrain, and anyone working to longer timetables will benefit from reading this.