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Recalibrating Our Crystal Ball
Gold bullion appreciated over 27% in 2024, the most in 14 years, and outperformed most major asset classes, ending the year at $2,624.50. Since the start of this century, gold has outperformed stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar (see Figure 1). chart Figure 2 shows that London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) consensus expectations have often missed the mark by a wide margin, but useful in that they portray crowd thinking and positioning. LBMA respondents typically “include analysts from major banks and commodity trading firms” (LMBA website). chart BullionVault’s survey of 1,400 respondents (not LBMA) have ... (full story)