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ECB Watch: Soft inflation supports an October cut
Headline inflation declined to 1.8% in September. Lagarde indicated already yesterday that the October meeting is back in play, and we have changed our ECB forecast. We now expect a rate cut in October, followed by back-to-back cuts until April 2025. Euro-area headline inflation declined below the ECB target to 1.8% in September (2.2% in August) mainly due to a decline in energy prices. Core inflation slowed down as well but much less dramatically, from 2.8% to 2.7%. Both numbers were right at the consensus and indicate that broad-based inflationary pressures are becoming weaker in the Euro area, but only gradually. ... (full story)