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Macro & Markets: Time to normalize, not panic
The US labour market is clearly cooler, but most indicators still show an economy operating at trend or higher. It makes sense for the Fed to start removing policy restraint, but we see little need to panic. Even if we saw some improvement in the employment report for August, the payback after the weak July data was smaller than we expected. Looking at the overall picture for the US economy, we do however still see the Fed reducing interest rates by 25bps in two weeks as the most likely outcome despite the market leaning heavily towards 50bps. There can be no doubt the US economy is in better balance. Inflation is ... (full story)