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ECB Watch: To cut or not to not cut
The ECB is almost certain to cut rates by 25bp next week. While the central bank is set to refrain from any firm guidance on future steps, we think staff forecasts showing inflation at target in the medium-term support a quarterly pace of rate cuts. • The ECB is set to deliver another 25bp rate cut, and we expect the communication to be in line with our view of continued quarterly rate cuts. • No clear signals about the timing of further policy steps should be expected. • The staff inflation forecast for the near-term will likely see small upward revisions, while the medium-term numbers are set to point to ... (full story)