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  • ADP: US Private Sector Employment Increased by 99,000 Jobs in August; Annual Pay was Up 4.8%

    From prnewswire.com

    Private sector employment increased by 99,000 jobs in August and annual pay was up 4.8 percent year-over-year, according to the August ADP® National Employment Report™ produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of the ... (full story)

Added at 8:22am

  • August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says

    From cnbc.com

    Private sector payrolls grew at the weakest pace in more than three-and-a-half years in August, providing yet another sign of a deteriorating labor market, according to ADP. Companies hired just 99,000 workers for the month, less than the downwardly revised 111,000 in July and below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 140,000. August was the weakest month for job growth since January 2021, according to data from the payrolls processing firm. “The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. The report ... (full story)

Bad ADP employment data equal to Good NFP data. Dollar will strong tomorrow.
Wonder how many of these jobs are "2nd job" since people can't live with the 1st job's salary nowadays
wow, massive miss plus revision lower on previous months, Employment data is literally falling apart here.
Quoting Tradex.FX
Bad ADP employment data equal to Good NFP data. Dollar will strong tomorrow.
I don't envisage Good NFP data at the moment. The dollar is pressured for now.
Quoting Tradex.FX
Bad ADP employment data equal to Good NFP data. Dollar will strong tomorrow.
= 50 bps rate cut= Weak USD
Rate cut is inevitable at the moment
Usd just lol ho geya
Gold up ho geya
thats bad
Quoting Vancarbon
O.25% at best, no chance of 0.5% If they go for 0.5% it’ll flash crash the market . O.25% cut means a more orderly decline
dude a 0.5 cut its almost certain
Need new Chef, whoever is cooking these numbers didn't do a very good job lately
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} dude a 0.5 cut its almost certain
Says who? The markets? The genie in the bottle? Nothing is for certain.
The solution is (x).
Quoting Vancarbon
O.25% at best, no chance of 0.5% If they go for 0.5% it’ll flash crash the market . O.25% cut means a more orderly decline
You made a lot of sense. FED must consider that to gain credibility.
Dude have you heard Powell adress the world saying "it is time"? It will be a statement cut 50 now 50 in December
JPY needs to trend below 140 to regain its Safe Haven Status...lol
Quoting Momofrmnyc
{quote} Says who? The markets? The genie in the bottle? Nothing is for certain.
Good NFP= 50 Bps Rate Cut
Low NFP=25 Bps Rate cut
Now Rate cut in the table 50 bps
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So, the interesting thing that’s happening is that this ADP data used to be considered unreliable. In fact, after the revisions to employment data, it turns out ADP is a much better and more accurate indicator. Their methodology seems to reflect the reality far better than the entirely unreliable nonfarm.
A cut too soon will put CPI right up there again.
Dude it's a 0.5% cut on a way to high rate, when you get to the 3%s than those decisions must be tread carefully for now they need to ease asap they know it, tbh I'm impressed how well this turned out to be in America, it's not as great for europe
Labor Dept recently adjusted employment for the year by 818,000. 818,000! They cook the books on employment numbers. Election is 60 days away. We will have a good NFP number tomorrow.
Quoting Vancarbon
I was wondering if it was minus 99,000 after the revision.
No worries, administration will suck it up.
Quoting Windstrown
Dude have you heard Powell adress the world saying "it is time"? It will be a statement cut 50 now 50 in December
"Time" doesn't have to mean time to do 50. It could simply mean time to start.

Do you really think, after waiting this long to be 'convinced' by data that their restrictive policy has been restrictive enough that they will just rip the cord and do a full point in 3 months? I mean, if you do, then, as Vancarbon said, trade accordingly....because that will pay off immensely!

For what it's worth , though the markets have been increasing bets in favor of your argument, there is still less than a coin flip worth of "consensus" that your 50bps cut comes in September: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} dude a 0.5 cut its almost certain
50bps will signal that FED knows something we dont. Maybe they do, maybe they dont. But I dont think they will risk sending that message to the market.
No Rate Cut until Next Year!
Quoting hotaggie98
No Rate Cut until Next Year!
Haha. I would have to check, but I suspect the odds of THAT are even less than Windstrown's call of 1 full point in 2024. So, if you want to strike it rich, throw all your $$ down on that bet! Just make sure to buy a nice tent first....then move to Cali (choose your favorite city) after the September cut and your bet goes to zero.

In all seriousness though: if people are not trolling, this thread exemplifies how markets are made. From 1 full cut to 0, and everywhere in between. It is no wonder the world bets with the distribution curve it does!
For real
there is no sense to do cut rate by 50bps. This case only for recession but what we look right now is soft landing. 25bps have more capability for make inflation on progress. we only need "clue" for how many "cuts" the Fed gonna do till the end of 2024.
You can make a case for a 50bps at the next FOMC, but you need a very weak NFP tomorrow to help that. Pretty clear JPow is chomping at the bit to cut, also clear the FOMC is mindful of the impact of cutting too fast. But, if employment slides, their mandate dictates decisive action.

Another thing: both POTUS candidates ae probably going to be seen as huge inflationary risks. The Fed may also & may want to give themselves some room to hike, down the road, and that could mean some aggressive cutting over the next 2-3 quarters.

my best hunch short term is NFP prints <115k and risk assets tank into next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
You can make a case for a 50bps at the next FOMC, but you need a very weak NFP tomorrow to help that. Pretty clear JPow is chomping at the bit to cut, also clear the FOMC is mindful of the impact of cutting too fast. But, if employment slides, their mandate dictates decisive action. Another thing: both POTUS candidates ae probably going to be seen as huge inflationary risks. The Fed may also & may want to give themselves some room to hike, down the road, and that could mean some aggressive cutting over the next 2-3 quarters. my best hunch short...
Sound logic, but I am taking the other side on a couple of points. As always, I could be COMPLETELY wrong with this and it like all of our commentary) is speculation at best..

First, I would assume the LAST thing the FOMC want to do is hike again. Planing "room" for that within the next 2-3 years is probably not even on their minds. I would (and am, via investments) put money on them taking a very methodical pace to cutting over the next 12-24 months...even later than the market is pricing in probably.

Second, not so much a disagreement, but I more a 'hope' that risk assets do WELL into the FOMC decision based on whatever expectation the market places on cuts. If NFP is terrible, that the market bets on the 50 bp cut and is excited into FOLC (which then probably disappoints)....or, that NFP is very strong, which means the economy is NOT crumbling as the doomsday advocates would have you believe but just slowing in line with FOMC's plan, so a 25bp cut is enough to continue toward the soft landing...Need that /nq back up to the 20000 area by FOMC!

......CPI/PPI/consumer sentiment next week is going to put some real interesting power into the "tea leaf reading" fire. With FED blackout impending, get ready for a media frenzy surrounding everything that "will happen next week at the FOMC meeting" (and prepare for 75% of it to be incorrect, haha)
Quoting ffghost
{quote} Sound logic, but I am taking the other side on a couple of points. As always, I could be COMPLETELY wrong with this and it like all of our commentary) is speculation at best.. First, I would assume the LAST thing the FOMC want to do is hike again. Planing "room" for that within the next 2-3 years is probably not even on their minds. I would (and am, via investments) put money on them taking a very methodical pace to cutting over the next 12-24 months...even later than the market is pricing in probably. Second, not so much a disagreement,...
absolutely agree with you.
I'm always shooting both ways, just put on a bunch of Sep9 SPX call backspreads to catch a big move north off a solid NFP. But bigger bets are on for a further drop, all the way to Sep opex. I am thankful to see big moves in a 2-way market, for a change...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
NASDAQ... selling To Hell
Quoting Assaultking
NASDAQ... selling To Hell
eyes on Broadcom earnings ah today, a miss there and a tank on the nfp n we could see Nasdaq down 1000 friday
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Looks like someone is observant. I agree with the premise but not the conclusion.
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