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Week Ahead: Inflation Gauges and Stretched US Dollar Drop
In the middle of last week, the Fed funds futures discounted 103 bp of cuts this year. There was some movement but after Fed Chair Powell’s, but the market finished the week with 104 bp of cuts priced into the Fed funds futures curve. The two-year note yield settled at a three-week low and the dollar slumped. The Dollar Index's 1.7% lost last week, its fifth consecutive drop and the largest weekly decline of the year. Although the euro rose to $1.12, its best level since July 2023, and sterling appreciated to $1.3230, its best level since March 2022, they did not lead the assault on the greenback. Rather, the New ... (full story)