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China: Uncertain economic environment overshadows the party plenum
China’s GDP growth slowed down more than expected. The vulnerable macro picture could improve if the leaders surprise the audience by making substantial changes to boost consumption. However, this is not our baseline expectation. China’s outlook in short • China’s GDP growth slowed down to 4.7% in Q2. Growth relies much on fixed asset investment in manufacturing and infrastructure while consumer confidence remains low and the downturn in the housing market continues. • The outlook is further challenged by the increasing number of trade restrictions both from the US and the EU on China. We expect that trend ... (full story)