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HomepageInsights & ResearchCommodities: EVs for EV-eryone?
The headlines have been saturated with stories of the drop in electric vehicle (EV) sales.

In the first quarter of 2024, US EV sales fell by -15.2% vs. the prior quarter, marking the first quarter-over-quarter sales decline since Q2 2020.1 Tesla sales fell 9% in Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2023, and the company has announced layoffs of "more than 10%" of its global workforce.2 Ford Motor Company has said it will delay the rollout of a new electric pickup and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) as EV sales slow in the US.

Even sales in China were disappointing, as EV sales grew 14.7% in Q1 2024 vs. a year ago. This was a decent clip, but it was the lowest growth rate since the second quarter of 2023.3

Several regions have lowered subsidies on EVs

Much of the disappointment is due to the drop in government subsidies for EVs. The Inflation Reduction Act in the US changes subsidies for EVs annually depending on where the vehicles and batteries are made.4 EV subsidies in Germany were terminated for businesses on September 1, 2023, and ended for individuals on December 17, erasing a 4,500 Euros ($5,000) subsidy a few weeks earlier than the end-of-year schedule.

The subsidy was scheduled for a reduction to 3,000 Euros ($3,273) in 2024 but instead was scrapped in its entirety a few days earlier as budget constraints forced Germany's coalition government to eliminate EV subsidies. In France, EV subsidies of up to 7,000 Euros ($7,636) were available but limited to EVs made in Europe as of December 15.5

An EV price war has erupted

Tesla has cut Model 3 and Model Y prices below $40,000 and $45,000, respectively. Heavy discounting of EV inventory on other dealer lots is apparent. The combination of generally higher prices for all autos and EV discounting to move excess inventory has placed some EV models on par or very close to internal combustion engine prices.

If you have been looking to purchase an EV, you may find some appealing discounts. The price cuts have been driven by the need to appeal to a broader range of clients, the threat from less expensive Chinese EV imports, and the need to move imperfect EVs with software issues to make way for newer, improved models. An energy transition based on selling $120,000 Porsche EVs only appeals to the 1% of high earners, so the progression to more affordable vehicles was necessary.

More work needs to be done to make public EV charging affordable. Public EV chargers cost $0.40 to $0.60 per kilowatt hour, while the national average home electricity price is $0.15 per kilowatt hour.6 That equates to $1.25 per gallon of gasoline at home electricity prices and $3.32 to $4.98 per gallon at a public charger.7 So some EV owners are paying more per mile for electricity than they would with gasoline.

The energy transition is bigger than EV sales alone

The slowdown in EV sales growth does not change our positive outlook on industrial metals. EV sales, wind turbines, solar power, and grid infrastructure buildout to connect new natural gas-fired and nuclear power plants to the grid contribute to the bullish demand story. At the same time, continuing mining disruptions limit production increases. Recent copper production restrictions include the surprise closure of First Quantum Minerals Ltd's Cobre Panama mine, downgrades to production guidance from Anglo American Plc, and a production slump to quarter-century lows at Codelco, the world's top producer.8,9

Just this week the mining authority of Zambia said that power utility ZESCO Ltd has notified several mining companies that it cannot fully meet its electricity supply commitments. The southern African nation relies on hydropower for 85% of its electricity generation and is experiencing rolling blackouts amid an ongoing drought.10

Alternative metals for an energy transition in temporary retrograde

Shifting consumer focus from climate change to budget change may progress an energy transition. If governments cannot afford EV subsidies or build out reasonably priced charging networks, the energy transition may occur at a slower rate.

Germany is not the only country to face budgetary pressures as demands for tax dollars rise from increasing military conflicts and interest rates that increase debt financing costs. Without EV subsidies and discounting, traditional gasoline-powered vehicle sales volume can be surprisingly strong. Platinum and palladium are used for pollution control in diesel and gasoline vehicles.

Both metals have had price declines at least partially inspired by forecasts of an EV transition that has proven too aggressive. Platinum is trading 27% lower than its February 15, 2021, high and palladium is trading 67% lower than its March 8, 2022 high.11 Supply of both metals is heavily concentrated in Russia, where platinum and palladium have avoided several rounds of US sanctions, and South Africa, where several years of electricity outages are reducing mine output.

Gold hits another all-time high

Gold recently hit $2,383 an ounce.12 Is the run over?

Gold prices rose from $1284 in early 2019, to $2383 earlier this month even as selling pressure from ETF investors was extreme and they sold 750 tons of gold over the last two years.13 The price rise was generated by foreign central banks which bought nearly three times as much gold as ETF investors sold.

ETF investors may shift to buying gold when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates.14 The last three Federal Funds rate cycles have kicked off gold price moves of 57%, 235%, and 69% in 2000, 2006, and 2018, respectively.15 Recent discussions from Fed chair Jerome Powell have hinted that the rate cut may be delayed from the anticipated June meeting to later in the year.

While investors may wait until the first rate cut to buy more gold, it is hard to imagine that foreign central banks' appetite for gold will soon diminish. They have been diversifying away from US treasuries and into gold for several years to minimize their exposure to US foreign policy sanctions that can cut them off from the US dollar trading system.

Gold premiums among retail investors in China are high, a sign of increased demand. Central bank purchases continue, and recently open interest has risen in the COMEX futures market, a sign of hedge fund interest.16 In fact, with ETF investor holdings back down where they were in 2019 and US money market assets at historically high levels of over $6 trillion, it is not hard to see how an allocation back to gold from cash may fuel price advances.

OPEC unlikely to hurt prized customers

OPEC+ spare oil capacity is 3–5 million barrels per day and production could increase if oil prices rise dramatically to over $100–$120 per barrel.17 Oil prices over $100 disproportionally hurt emerging market oil demand, particularly if not offset by a weaker US dollar (stronger local currency).

It is these emerging countries with attractive demographics and rapidly growing standards of living that account for a large portion of the yearly growth in oil demand. Should OPEC decide not to increase production if oil prices rose over $120, they would disproportionately hurt emerging countries, which are their dearest customers.

We don't see that as plausible, so a supply disruption-led price hike is possible, but a sustained price over $120 seems unlikely. The shortage of refinery capacity in developed markets like the US warns us to ensure we have enough refined products (gasoline, diesel, gasoil) in a diversified portfolio of commodities, not just crude oil.

1 "EV Sales Growth Slows; Market Leader Tesla Stalls." Cox Automotive, April 2024. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/.
2 "Tesla lays off ‘more than 10%’ of its global workforce." Electrek, April 2024. https://electrek.co/2024/04/15/tesla-lays-off-more-than-10-of-its-global-workforce/.
3 "China's first-quarter EV sales growth slowest in a year." Reuters, April 2024. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-car-sales-rise-57-yy-march-2024-04-09/.
4 The Inflation Reduction Act is a U.S. federal statute enacted by the 117th United States Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden on August 16, 2022.
5 "Germany Just Ended Electric Vehicle Subsidies. This is Tesla's Response." Investor's Business Daily, December 2023. https://www.investors.com/news/electric-vehicle-subsidies-germany-ends-ev-bonus-abruptly-in-latest-blow-to-tesla/.
6 "Table 5.6.A. Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, by State, January 2024 and 2023." Electric Power Monthly. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), January 2024. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a.
7 "How much does it cost to charge an electric car?" Enelxway, August 2023. https://www.enelxway.com/us/en/resources/blog/how-much-does-it-cost-to-charge-an-electric-vehicle.
8 "A $10 Billion Copper Mine Is Now Sitting Idle in the Jungle." Bloomberg, April 2024. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/cobre-panama-shutdown-how-10-billion-copper-mine-got-closed.
9 "Codelco Caps Worst Year in Quarter Century With Copper Production Drop." Bloomberg, April 2024. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-12/codelco-caps-worst-year-in-quarter-century-with-quarterly-drop.
10 "Zambia Copper Mines Hit by State Utility’s Warning of Power Cuts." Bloomberg, April 2024. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/zambia-copper-mines-hit-by-state-utility-s-warning-of-power-cuts.
11 Bloomberg, platinum 2/15/2021 and 4/15/2024; palladium 3/8/2022 and 4/15/2024.
12 Bloomberg, gold price per ounce 4/15/2024.
13 Bloomberg, ETF holdings of gold in ounces 4/22/2022 and 4/15/2024.
14 Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States.
15 Bloomberg, gold price gain 5/25/2000 to 3/31/2004; gold price gain 6/19/2006 to 8/22/2011; gold price gain 11/30/2018 to 8/6/2020.
16 COMEX is a division of CME Group, a leading platform for trading futures contracts on precious and base metals such as gold, silver, and copper.
17 OPEC+ consists of countries from OPEC, an organization that promotes the cooperation of oil-producing countries to influence the oil market toward prices that balance the demand and supply of oil, plus ten other countries that formed OPEC+ in 2016.

Important information

The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trading in commodities entails a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
Prospectuses for abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF, abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF, abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF, abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF and abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF
Projections are offered as opinion and are not reflective of potential performance.
Projections are not guaranteed, and actual events or results may differ materially.
ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent.
There are risks associated with investing including possible loss of principal.
ALPS is not affiliated with abrdn.

ETF002180 4/1/25
AA-180424-176915-1

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Investors should carefully consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, fees, charges, and expenses before investing any money. To obtain this and other fund information, please call 866-667-9231 to request a summary prospectus and/or prospectus, or download at www.abrdn.com/us. Please read the summary prospectus and/or prospectus carefully before investing any money.

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For ETFs, please call 844-383-7289 or click here to access a prospectus online. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ETF shares are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the Fund.

Important Risks

The abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust and abrdn Palladium ETF Trust are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These investments are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Trusts are not FDIC insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.

The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:

A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adversely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, consequently, its price and the price of the Shares;

Investors’ expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;

Currency exchange rates;

Interest rates;

Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and

Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.

Also, should the speculative community take a negative view towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices, negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts’ physical precious metal could be lost, damaged or stolen. Failure by the Custodian or Sub-Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the Trusts.

The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the Trust’s precious metal that is not covered by insurance.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market makers or "authorized participants" may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 25k to 100k shares.

Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the prospectus. Carefully consider each Trust’s investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please click here to review the prospectus.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for the abrdn Gold ETF Trust, abrdn Silver ETF Trust, abrdn Precious Metals Basket ETF Trust, abrdn Platinum ETF Trust and abrdn Palladium ETF Trust.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the distributor for abrdn ETFs.

ALPS Distributors, Inc. is not affiliated with the companies of abrdn.

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An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the ETFs carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other important information, call 1-844-383-7289 or visit www.abrdn.com/us/etf. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Fund Risk: There are risks associated with investing including possible loss of principal. Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. There can be no assurance that the Fund’s investment objective will be met at any time. The commodities markets and the prices of various commodities may fluctuate widely based on a variety of factors. Because the Fund's performance is linked to the performance of highly volatile commodities, investors should consider purchasing shares of the Fund only as part of an overall diversified portfolio and should be willing to assume the risks of potentially significant fluctuations in the value of the Fund. Actively managed ETFs do not necessarily seek to replicate the performance of a specified index. Actively managed ETFs are subject to risks similar to stocks, including those related to short selling and margin maintenance. The Fund’s return may not match the return of the index.

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As a "non-diversified" fund, the Fund may hold a smaller number of portfolio securities than many other funds. To the extent the Fund invests in a relatively small number of issuers, a decline in the market value of a particular security held by the Fund may affect its value more than if it invested in a larger number of issuers. The value of Shares may be more volatile than the values of shares of more diversified funds.

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The abrdn Bloomberg Industrial Metals K-1 Free ETF is new and has limited operating history.

“Bloomberg®” and “Bloomberg Commodity Index Total ReturnSM,” “Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month ForwardSM” and “Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total ReturnSM” are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indices (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by abrdn ETFs Advisors LLC. Bloomberg is not affiliated with abrdn ETFs Advisors LLC, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF (BCI), abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF (BCD), and abrdn Bloomberg Industrial Metals K-1 Free ETF (BCIM). Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3 Month Forward” and “Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex Total Return".

Please see the current prospectus, www.abrdn.com/us/etf for more information regarding the risk associated with an investment in the Funds.

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Standard Deviation: Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the extent to which returns of an asset vary from its average.

Bloomberg Commodity Index: The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index distributed by Bloomberg Indexes.

Discount- A situation when the share price of a fund trades below its net asset value.

Premium- A situation when the share price of a fund trades above its net asset value.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.

Annualized Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index

Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of an individual stock in comparison to the unsystematic risk of the entire market

Sharpe ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk
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