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Bond Traders Cave to the Fed by Dialing Back Their Rate-Cut Bets
Bond traders are finally heeding one of the market’s oldest lessons: Don’t fight the Fed. As the Federal Reserve pushed through its steepest interest-rate hikes in decades, investors consistently misjudged how far it would go, handing them steep losses in 2022 as Treasuries tumbled. Then early last year, they wrongly wagered a banking panic would force the Fed to stop. And in December, after Chair Jerome Powell signaled he was done for good, they wagered he would pivot to easing policy aggressively, with the first rate cut coming as soon as March, even though the Fed’s forecasts showed otherwise. But investors ... (full story)