Gold's fear trade has officially peaked as hedge funds ditch their bullish bets

Members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by observing that high inflation remained the primary concern for central banks in advanced economies. Headline inflation had edged higher over recent months in several countries because of increases in fuel prices. Core inflation had declined in year-ended terms, but core services inflation generally remained high. Although inflation in the prices of services other than housing had likely passed its peak and demand in the services sector had started to ease, the overall disinflation process was viewed as likely to take some time. The Israel-Hamas war had increased uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Members noted that the conflict could present an upside risk for global inflation if it were to lead to a disruption in energy supply from the region. Prices for liquified natural gas had already increased significantly following the shutdown of Israel’s Tamar gas field. Oil prices had been volatile since the beginning of the conflict but had not increased in a sustained way. Members also noted that the ongoing El Niño event presented an upside risk to global food price inflation. Output growth had slowed in many advanced economies, in response to tighter monetary policy and cost-of-living pressures. But the slowing had been less than anticipated in some economies and labour markets remained tight; economic activity in the United States was particularly strong in the September quarter. Growth in G7 economies was expected to slow further in the coming year because of tighter financial conditions. Members discussed the near-term outlook for Australia’s major trading partners. Output growth was expected to slow from 3½ per cent in 2023 to 3 per cent in 2024, well below the average growth rate in the decade prior to the pandemic. This outlook was post: RBA: WHETHER FURTHER TIGHTENING REQUIRED WOULD DEPEND ON DATA, ASSESSMENT OF RISKS #News #Markets #RBA #live post: RBA: GROWING MINDSET AMONG BUSINESSES THAT COST INCREASES COULD BE PASSED ON TO CUSTOMERS #News #Markets #RBA #live post: <AUD=>:*RBA: WILL ‘DO WHAT IS NECESSARY’ TO RETURN INFLATION TO TARGET *RBA SAYS FURTHER TIGHTENING TO DEPEND ON INCOMING DATA, RISKS *RBA: RISK OF NOT RETURNING CPI TO TARGET BY END 2025 HAD RISEN *RBA: CPI FORECASTS WOULD BE HIGHER IF NOT BASED ON 1-2 HIKES post: RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA BOARD MINUTES: CONSIDERED CASE FOR RAISING RATES OR HOLDING STEADY