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Chile’s August GDP Disappoints; September Inflation Surprises in Peru
On Monday, October 2nd, the central bank (BCCh) released August GDP, which fell 0.9% y/y, below market expectations (Economist Survey: -0.2%; Bloomberg: -0.1%), but very close to ours (-0.6%), the most pessimistic in the market. We expect the consensus to move towards our projection of annual GDP contraction for 2023 of 0.5%, at the floor of the range of the last BCCh IPoM and far from the MoF’s zero growth projection. We reiterate a likely scenario of technical recession in Q3-23 as, with a moderate contraction of 0.3% m/m in September, we would have a seasonally adjusted decline in Q3 coming on the heels of the ... (full story)