-
An Embarrassed Consensus Has Missed Millions of US Jobs
US job growth strongly beat consensus yet again (see table). As chart 1 shows, the pattern of serially underestimating job growth is rather unflattering to the community of economists and market participants that keeps wishing for weak reports but keeps getting routinely beaten on estimates of job growth. Consensus has underestimated payrolls in all but one month since the start of last year. The sum total of this underestimation bias amounts to missing about 1.9 million of the jobs that have been created over this time and so we’re dealing with a sizeable bias. That’s comparing consensus estimates to initial ... (full story)
- Comments
- Subscribe
- Comment #1
- Quote
- Jun 2, 2023 2:43pm Jun 2, 2023 2:43pm
- Guest
- | IP XXXX:a1b9:312b
-
- Older Stories
From fitchratings.com|Jun 2, 2023|1 commentAlthough the resolution of the U.S. debt limit impasse allows the government to meet its obligations, Fitch Ratings maintains the Rating Watch Negative (RWN) on the U.S. rating, ...
From bnnbloomberg.ca|Jun 2, 2023Here are five key takeaways from the US employment report for May, released Friday. • May saw another big upward surprise in payroll gains, with employers adding 339,000 jobs ...
From finance.yahoo.com|Jun 2, 2023Industrial production in Brazil fell by more than expected in April from March, data from government statistics agency IBGE showed on Friday, underscoring the difficulties faced ...
-
- Newer Stories
From home.saxo|Jun 2, 2023The commodity sector started the first week of June with pockets of strength emerging following a troubled May after risk sentiment received a broad boost after the US Senate ...
From corporate.nordea.com|Jun 2, 2023Economic indicators are currently telling many different stories. We continue to believe in one where inflation proves to be relatively sticky, meaning that central banks have ...
From gold.org|Jun 2, 2023This may, on the face of it, seem like a remarkable about turn from central banks, which were a source of very strong gold demand in Q1. But the country-level data reveals that, ...
- Story Stats
- Posted: Jun 2, 2023 1:30pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 1 / Views: 1,305
- Linked events:
