Fed’s Powell: We Can Now Say for First Time That Disinflationary Process Has Started

tweet at 2:43pm: POWELL: WE HAVEN'T MADE A DECISION YET ON TERMINAL RATE tweet at 2:44pm: Fed’s Powell: - Seps in March Could Be Higher Than December, Could Be Lower, Depends on Data - Could Certainly Be Higher Than What We Though in December - If Data Comes in Weaker, Will Make Data-Dependent Decisions - Very Difficult to Manage the Risk of Doing Too Little on Rates tweet at 2:45pm: Fed’s Powell: - We Don't Want Inflation Springing Back - Very Difficult to Manage the Risks of Doing Too Little on Rates - We Have No Desire to Overtighten, but We Have Tools That Would Work on That if We Do - The Job is Not Fully Done tweet at 2:45pm: Fed’s Powell: - Inflation is Core Services Ex Housing is Still Running at 4% - In Other Sectors, You Have a Credible Story on Disinflation - Would Be Very Premature to Declare Victory on Inflation - Don't Feel A Lot Of Certainty About May FOMC Meeting tweet at 2:46pm: FED'S POWELL: WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO UNTIL WE SEE ALL ASPECTS OF INFLATION COMING DOWN.

tweet at 2:38pm: Fed’s Powell: - Our Focus is on Sustained Changes to Broader Financial Conditions - We Are Not Yet at a Sufficiently Restrictive Level on Rates - We Will Take Into Account Financial Conditions and Other Conditions as We Set Policy tweet at 2:40pm: Fed’s Powell: - It is a Good Thing That Disinflation So Far Has Not Come at Expense of Labor Market - But This Disinflationary Process is in Early Stages - In Housing Services, We Expect Inflation to Continue Moving Up but Then Moving Down as New Leases Come in Lower tweet at 2:41pm: Fed’s Powell: - But in Core Services Ex Housing We Don't See Disinflation Yet - It is Gratifying to See Disinflationary Process Getting Under Way and Still Strong Labor Market Data - ECI and Avg Hourly Earnings Off of Highs, Still Fairly Elevated tweet at 2:42pm: FED'S POWELL: ECI AND AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS ARE DOWN FROM HIGHS BUT REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED. tweet at 2:42pm: Fed’s Powell: - Job Openings Numbers From JOLTS Report Has Been Quite Volatile Recently - JOLTS Number Is 'Probably An Important Indicator' - We See Wages Moving Down - By Many Many Indicators Job Market is Still Very Strong

tweet at 2:34pm: Fed’s Powell: - Labor Demand Substantially Exceeds Supply - Inflaiton 'Remains Well Above Our Longer-Run Goal' -Inflation Data Over Past 3 Months Show Welcome Reduction in Pace of Increases - Will Need Substantially More Evidence to Be Confident Inflation on Downward Path tweet at 2:35pm: Fed’s Powell: - Longer-term Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored - But That's Not Grounds for Complacency - Acutely Aware That High Inflation Imposes Hardships - We Are Highly Attentive of Risks Inflation Poses to Both Sides of Our Mandate tweet at 2:36pm: Fed's Powell: - In Light of Cumulative Tightening and Lags, Fed Continued Step-down From Last Year's Fast Pace - A Slower Pace Allows Us to Better Assess Progress Toward Our Goals - We Will Continue to Make Decisions Meeting by Meeting tweet at 2:37pm: Fed’s Powell: - Our Focus in on Using Our Tools to Bring Inflation Down - Reducing Inflation is Likely to Require Below Trend Growth, Some Softening in Labor Market - History Cautions Against Prematurely Loosening Policy tweet at 2:38pm: Fed’s Powell: - We Will Stay the Course Until Job is Done - We Will Do Everything We Can to Achieve Goals - Is Important Financial Conditions Continue to Reflect the Policy Restraint We've Put in Place - Our Focus is Not on Short-term Moves in Financial Conditions

tweet at 2:53pm: FED'S POWELL: POLICYMAKERS DID NOT SEE THIS AS A TIME TO PAUSE - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK tweet at 2:58pm: Fed's Powell: - But We Have Not Yet Decided Path Ahead - A Pause is Not Something the FOMC is on the Point of Deciding Right Now - 3-Month Core PCE Inflation Measure Are Quite Low Now tweet at 2:58pm: Fed's Powell: - My Own View is You Are Not Going to Have Sustainable Return to 2% in Core Ex Housing Sector Without Increased Labor Slack - Most Forecasters Would Say Unemployment Will Probably Rise a Bit tweet at 2:59pm: Fed's Powell: - See Path to Ease Inf. to 2% Without Big Economic Drop - Continue to Think There’s a Path to a Soft Landing - We Don’t yet See Weakening in the Labor Market - It May Well Be That It Will Take More Slowing in the Economy Than We Expect, but That's Not My Base Case tweet at 3:02pm: Fed's Powell: - My Own Assessment is That Positive Growth Will Continue but at Subdued Pace - That's My Forecast for This Year - But the Global Picture is Improving a Bit - Labor Market Also Remains Very, Very Strong - As Inflation Comes Down, Sentiment Will Improve

tweet at 3:03pm: Fed's Powell: - State and Local Governments Are Flush, So That Will Also Support - Lots of Spending Coming in Construction Pipeline - Those Factors Will Support Positive Growth This Yr - There Will Not Be a Light Switch Moment on When We Know Inflation is Sustainably Coming Down tweet at 3:04pm: FED'S POWELL: WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT THE NEXT EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX REPORT, YESTERDAY'S WAS ENCOURAGING BECAUSE IT SHOWED WAGE GROWTH. tweet at 3:05pm: Fed's Powell: - Market Participants Have a Different Job Than the Fed - Strongly Resolved That We’ll Complete 2% Inflation Task - Goods Inflation Has Come Down Pretty Fast - Don’t Know if Further Inflation Slowing Will Be `Hard’ tweet at 3:06pm: FED'S POWELL Q&A: 'THIS IS NOT A STANDARD BUSINESS CYCLE;' 'IT'S UNIQUE;' 'CERTAINTY IS NOT APPROPRIATE;' TO BE CAUTIOUS; 'LONG WAY TO GO' #Powell #federalreserve tweet at 3:06pm: FED'S POWELL: OUR JOB IS TO DELIVER INFLATION BACK TO TARGET, WILL BE CAUTIOUS IN DECLARING VICTORY #News #Markets #POWELL #INFLATION #capitalhungry

tweet at 3:07pm: Fed’s Powell: According To Current Outlook, Will Not Be Appropriate For Rate Cuts This Year $DXY $USD #FOMC tweet at 3:08pm: FED'S POWELL: MARKETS EXPECT INFLATION TO COME DOWN QUICKER THAN WE DO. tweet at 3:08pm: Fed's Powell: - We See Continued Subdued Growth, No Recession, Inflation Coming Down Slowly - We Have a Different Forecast From Markets - I Don't See Us Cutting Rates if Our Outlook Comes True; if Inflation Comes Down Faster Than We Expect That Will Play Into Our Policy Decisions tweet at 3:11pm: Fed's Powell: - I Don't See Signs of a Wage Price Spiral - Agree With Brainard That No Wage-Price Spiral Seen - But Once You See It, It's Too Late - We Cannot Allow That to Happen - More Disinflation Could Give a Boost to Economic Activity tweet at 3:13pm: Fed's Powell: - Once Inflation Easing, Should See Cons. Sentiment Boost - Very Reasssuring That Short and Long Term Expectations Are So Well Anchored, That's Helpful to Getting Inflation Back Down - We Monitor Financial Conditions Carefully