Softer data, slower Fed and more Russian oil

tweet at 4:35pm: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: HIGHER INTEREST RATES WILL TAKE TIME TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE ECONOMY. tweet at 4:36pm: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: I EXPECT GROWTH TO SLOW IN THE COMING QUARTERS AND ONCE WE GET PAST THIS SLOWDOWN, GROWTH WILL RESUME. tweet at 4:36pm: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: WE ARE ATTEMPTING TO STRIKE A BALANCE BETWEEN THE RISKS OF UNDER- AND OVER-TIGHTENING. tweet at 4:38pm: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: WITH INFLATION SO FAR ABOVE OUR TARGET, WE ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE RISKS ON THE UPSIDE.

Good evening. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss our recent policy announcement and the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In October, we raised the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%. This is the sixth consecutive increase since March. We also expect our policy rate will need to rise further. How much further will depend on how monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding to this tightening cycle. Our decision reflected several considerations. First, inflation in Canada remains high and broad-based, reflecting large increases in both goods and services prices. Inflation has come down in recent months, but we have yet to see a generalized decline in price pressures. Second, and related, the economy is still in excess demand—it’s overheated. Job vacancies have declined from their peak but remain high, and businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages. Third, higher interest rates are beginning to weigh on growth. This is increasingly evident in interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy, like housing and spending on big-ticket items. But the effects of higher rates will take time to spread through the economy. Fourth, there are no easy outs to restoring price stability. We need the economy to slow down to rebalance demand and supply and relieve price pressures. We expect growth will stall in the next few quarters—in other words, growth will be close to zero. But once we get through this slowdown, growth will pick up, our economy will grow solidly, and the benefits of low and predictable inflation will be restored. To put this in numbers, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to decline from about 3¼% this year to just under 1% next year a tweet at 4:32pm: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: WE ANTICIPATE THAT OUR POLICY RATE WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER. tweet at 4:32pm: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: HOW FAR POLICY RATES MUST RISE DEPENDS ON HOW WELL MONETARY POLICY IS WORKING TO SLOW DEMAND. tweet at 4:33pm: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: IN CANADA, INFLATION REMAINS HIGH AND WIDESPREAD, REFLECTING SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN BOTH GOODS AND SERVICES PRICES. tweet at 4:34pm: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: THE CANADIAN ECONOMY IS STILL OVERHEATED AND IN EXCESS DEMAND.