Why Australia's new defence pact with the US and Britain is so significant

ANALYSIS: While ditching a $90 billion deal with the French is a massive diplomatic move by Australia, the real underlying consequence of the new US-UK pact surrounds our highly conflicted relationship with China.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison at a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra, Thursday, September 16, 2021. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas) NO ARCHIVING

Prime Minister Scott Morrison at a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra, Thursday, September 16, 2021. Source: AAP

As Australians woke up and poured milk into their cereal bowls on Thursday, the geopolitical world slightly shifted on its axis.

Already close allies, Australia made a transcontinental media announcement with the United States and Britain.

In doing so, the federal government dumped its $90 billion plan to build a new attack class submarine fleet, parting ways with French defence company Naval Group and the French government on the massive project.

The cost of the pivot is unclear.

At a minimum, it's understood to be $2.4 billion in taxpayer funds paid so far, but the compensation to the French has not been made public and may not be fully known yet.

That in itself is a massive story, but the real underlying consequence belongs to Australia’s already highly conflicted relationship with China.

References to “stability” in the Indo-Pacific and changing “threat” environment are all pointers to China’s growing military strength and concerns about the ramifications.

And the reach of this deal under the new partnership between the three nations – to be known as AUKUS – will go much deeper into joint defence and security ties, also stretching into cybersecurity and space.
Joe Biden delivers in the White House, joined virtually by Scott Morrison.
Joe Biden delivers in the White House, joined virtually by Scott Morrison. Source: ABACA
The Morrison government is at pains to make clear investing in nuclear-powered submarines is not a pivot towards any watering down of the commitment to Australia’s international nuclear non-proliferation agreements.

But the loss of the lucrative submarine contract will upset the French.

It will also raise the hackles of those who’ve been so focused on ensuring Australia doesn’t have any nuclear grey areas.

Now will be the task of explaining this announcement to the Australian people and to the regional neighbourhood, New Zealand and Indonesia in particular.

It will also inflame the tensions with China.

Scott Morrison maintains the phone line to President Xi Jinping in Beijing remains open. But whether this will in any way lead to the Chinese leader dialling Mr Morrison’s number remains an open question.
Trade between the two nations, so important to Australia’s economic bottom line, is now even more sensitive. 

The tariffs and pauses on the traffic of Australian meat, barley and wine among other commodities have already bitten hard in some industries.

The Prime Minister is also banking on this pivot to defence, including an increase in the spending on defence capability, playing well with a domestic audience.

It will likely trigger months of announcements, more details and more information about the uncertain environment in the Pacific.

And while the decision throws hundreds of jobs into question, promises will be made about new jobs being created and the “portability” of skills.

Australians now head towards an election with a clear message that the nation's defence forces needed to be turbocharged and there are risks on the horizon.

Voters will be mulling these political pronouncements when they return to the ballot box sometime between now and May next year.

Anna Henderson is SBS News's chief political correspondent.


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3 min read
Published 16 September 2021 1:47pm
Updated 16 September 2021 1:53pm
By Anna Henderson
Source: SBS News


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