Press CORRECTION: Gross domestic product: detailed results on the economic performance in the 4th quarter of 2020

Correction in the table "Gross domestic product". Changes are highlighted

Press release No. 081 of 24 February 2021

Gross domestic product, 4th quarter of 2020
+0.3% on the previous quarter (price, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
-2.7% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)
-3.7% on the same quarter a year earlier (price and calendar-adjusted)

WIESBADEN – The gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with the third quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. After the historic 9.7% slump of the GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the German economy had recovered in the third quarter of 2020 (+8.5%). In the fourth quarter, however, the recovery process slowed due to the second coronavirus wave and another lockdown imposed at the end of the year. According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the GDP development was slightly more positive than reported in the first release of 29 January 2021, both regarding the fourth quarter (+0.3%) and the entire year of 2020 (-4.9%; calendar-adjusted: -5.3%).

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Gross domestic product, price-adjusted (and adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13)
Changes on a quarter earlier (percent):
20192020
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
0.6-0.50.30.0-2.0-9.78.50.3

Domestic final consumption expenditure markedly down, gross fixed capital formation in construction and exports have stabilising effect

Due to the restrictions of the second lockdown as of November 2020, household final consumption expenditure in the fourth quarter of 2020 was down 3.3% on the third quarter of 2020 after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. This means that the decrease of household final consumption expenditure was smaller than in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.0%). Government final consumption expenditure, too, recorded a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter decrease in the fourth quarter of 2020, following increases in the first three quarters of the year. Gross fixed capital formation in construction contributed to growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 as it rose 1.8% on the third quarter of 2020 after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Seasonally adjusted gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was roughly the same as in the previous quarter (-0.1%).

Foreign trade increased at the end of the year and had an upward effect on the GDP. In the fourth quarter of 2020, exports of goods and services were up 4.5% compared with the third quarter of 2020, after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. The total increase of imports (3.7%) was slightly smaller as the imports of services was down on the previous quarter.

Gross value added up in industry and down in service sector

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the price, seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross value added decreased by 0.2% on the third quarter of 2020. Diverging trends were shown for the individual economic sectors. Gross value added in manufacturing (+6.7%) and in construction (+5.2%) increased markedly on the third quarter of 2020, whereas the temporary recovery was abruptly stopped by the second coronavirus wave in most service branches. For example, gross value added in trade, transport, accommodation and food services was down 4.4%, gross value added in public services, education, health decreased by 3.2%.

Gross domestic product still markedly down on a year earlier

GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 was down a price-adjusted 2.7% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the corona crisis began. After price and calendar adjustment, the decrease was larger (-3.7%) as there were roughly three working days more than a year earlier.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted
Changes on a year earlier in percent:
20192020
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
1.0-0.31.20.2-1.8-11.3-3.9-2.7

Household final consumption expenditure markedly down, gross fixed capital formation in construction and government final consumption expenditure have stabilising effect

On the whole, domestic demand continued to be far lower than in the previous year. Price-adjusted household final consumption expenditure declined by 6.5% and gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment by 6.0% on the fourth quarter of 2019. Only gross fixed capital formation in construction (+3.0% on a year earlier) and government final consumption expenditure (+2.6%) had an upward effect on GDP.

Total foreign demand was lower than in the same period a year earlier. Foreign trade in goods stabilised towards the end of the year, whereas exports and imports of services recorded two-digit decreases. On the whole, exports of goods and services fell by 2.9% (price-adjusted) in the fourth quarter of 2020 on the fourth quarter of 2019. Total imports declined by 5.1% in the same period.

Construction grew also on a year earlier, all other economic sectors decreased

On the production side of the GDP, price-adjusted gross value added was lower in almost all economic sectors in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with a year earlier. The largest decreases (-18.2%) were recorded for other services, which include entertainment and recreation. Gross value added of business services fell sharply, too (-9.1%). In trade, transport, accommodation and food services, gross value added was down 6.3%, with accommodation and food services recording an even larger decrease. Following the two-digit slump in summer, gross value added in manufacturing decreased less strongly now; in the fourth quarter of 2020, it was by 2.0% below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019. Construction is the only sector that saw economic growth on a year earlier (+5.3%).

Total gross value added was down 3.6%, which was roughly one percentage point more than the GDP decrease. This is due to the strong increase in net taxes on products of 5.3%.

Number of persons in employment still markedly below pre-crisis level

The coronavirus crisis continues to have a considerable effect on the labour market. The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2020 was achieved by roughly 44.8 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. This was a decrease of 747,000, or 1.6%, on a year earlier (see press release no. 072/21 of 18 February 2021). In the preceding two quarters, similar decreases were recorded (-1.4% in the second quarter and -1.6% in the third quarter). Before that, the number of persons in employment declined last in the first quarter of 2010 due to the financial and economic crisis. It must be noted, however, that short-time work does not affect the employment figures because short-time workers still count as persons in employment.

However, short-time work had a substantial effect on the average number of hours worked per person in employment. The latter decreased markedly by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with a year earlier, according to first provisional calculations of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, declined even more sharply by 4.3% over the same period.
Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per hour worked by persons in employment) rose by 1.7% on the same quarter of the previous year, according to provisional calculations. However, labour productivity per person in employment was down 1.1% compared with the fourth quarter of 2019.

Stable incomes and consumer reticence lead to increase of savings ratio

At current prices, both the GDP and the gross national income were down 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with a year earlier. The decline in the net national income at factor costs was slightly less pronounced (-1.3%). According to first provisional calculations, the compensation of employees was roughly unchanged (-0.1%) year on year, while property and entrepreneurial income fell markedly by 4.9%. On average, gross wages and salaries per employee fell by 0.5%, while net wages and salaries rose slightly by 0.2%. The disposable income of households was somewhat higher (0.3%) in the fourth quarter of 2020 than a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure at current prices, however, showed a decrease of 6.3%. As in the previous two quarters, the relatively stable incomes, on the one hand, and consumer reticence, on the other, resulted in a substantial rise in household saving. According to provisional calculations, the savings ratio was 15.7% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

International and European comparison

Trends were diverging within Europe. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the price, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP declined for example in France (-1.3%) and Italy (-2.0%) compared with the third quarter, while a slight increase similar to that in Germany was seen in other Member States such as Spain (+0.4%). According to provisional calculations, the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) reported a GDP decline of 0.4% on the previous quarter for the European Union (EU) as a whole. The United States recorded an increase in their gross domestic product (+1.0%, converted figure) on the third quarter of 2020.

The year-on-year comparison shows that the gross domestic product of most EU Member States was still far below the pre-crisis level in the fourth quarter of 2020. Spain recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-9.1%) of all the Member States which have data available as yet. The economies of France (-5.0%) and Italy (-6.6%) also shrank considerably compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. For the whole EU, Eurostat released a preliminary result of -4.8%. The United States’ decline in the gross domestic product (-2.5%, converted figure) on the fourth quarter of 2019 was similar to that of Germany (-2.7%).

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, 4th quarter of 2020
Percentage change:
 USAEurorareaEU27FranceItalySpainGermany
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures: change on the previous quarter;
unadjusted figures: change on the previous year's quarter.
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures1.0-0.6-0.4-1.3-2.00.40.3
Unadjusted figures-2.5-5.0-4.8-5.0-6.6-9.1-2.7

For a detailed comparison of the EU Member States’ growth rates please refer to our web page “Europe in figures”.

Revision of previous results and methodological notes
Since the second quarter of 2020, the Federal Statistical Office has released first official GDP data as early as 30 days after the end of a quarter, that is, about two weeks earlier than in the past. The earlier availability of the results, however, requires a higher proportion of estimates. In addition, the greater uncertainties caused by the coronavirus pandemic may lead to larger revisions than usual. In addition to calculating the detailed results, the Federal Statistical Office also revised the figures for all four quarters and the year 2020. Taking into account the statistical information that became available after the first release of 29 January 2021, this resulted in upwards revisions of the gross domestic product by up to 0.2 percentage points (see table “Comparison between old and new figures”).

Gross domestic product
 Unadjusted figuresFigures according to X13
price-adjusted
At current pricesPrice-adjustedSeasonally and
calendar-adjusted
Calendar-
adjusted
EUR billion% 12015 = 100% 12015 = 100% 2% 1 3
1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding).
qtr = quarter
20193,449.052.8106.810.6106.990.60.6
20203,332.23-3.4101.58-4.9101.35-5.3-5.3
20191st qtr845.823.0106.361.0107.230.61.1
2nd qtr846.941.9105.36-0.3106.69-0.50.1
3rd qtr870.153.6107.741.2107.020.30.7
4th qtr886.142.5107.790.2107.000.00.4
20201st qtr851.060.6104.44-1.8104.87-2.0-2.2
2nd qtr768.87-9.293.46-11.394.69-9.7-11.3
3rd qtr843.12-3.1103.53-3.9102.758.5-4.0
4th qtr869.18-1.9104.87-2.7103,100.3-3.7

Comparison between old and new figures - gross domestic product, price-adjusted

 

 

New resultPrevious resultDifference
Figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13 1Unadjusted figuresFigures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13 1Unadjusted figuresFigures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13 1Unadjusted figures
Change, percent 2Percentage points

1 calendar-adjusted figures for annual data.

2 Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures: change on the previous year or the previous quarter
  unadjusted figures: change on the previous year or on the previous year's quarter.

qtr = quarter

2020 -5.3-4.9-5.3-5.00.00.1

2020

 

Q1-2.0-1.8-2.0-1.80.00.0
Q2-9.7-11.3-9.7-11.30.00.0
Q38.5-3.98.5-3.90.00.0
Q40.3-2.70.1-2.90.20.2

Use of the gross domestic product
Unadjusted figures 
 2020
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Consumption expenditure2,460.137616.401580.984627.539635.213
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs1,709.299436.795397.059441.947433.498
Government final consumption expenditure750.838179.606183.925185.592201.715
Gross capital formation678.139182.231156.289165.175174.444
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)735.496174.271178.875187.145195.205
GFCF in construction387.00691.68899.886100.92094.512
GFCF in machinery and equipment213.86251.29646.67553.15662.735
GFCF in other products134.62831.28732.31433.06937.958
Domestic uses3,138.276798.632737.273792.714809.657
Exports1,460.094394.068309.323364.985391.718
Imports1,266.140341.640277.726314.579332.195
Gross domestic product (GDP)3,332.230851.060768.870843.120869.180
Price-adjusted, Change on the previous year in %
Consumption expenditure-3.5-0.2-8.1-1.6-3.9
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs-6.1-1.3-12.8-3.6-6.5
Government final consumption expenditure3.32.64.43.62.6
Gross capital formation-6.9-3.6-9.3-11.8-2.8
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-3.1-0.6-7.4-3.5-0.9
GFCF in construction1.95.30.6-0.73.0
GFCF in machinery and equipment-12.1-9.2-23.6-10.0-6.0
GFCF in other products-1.1-1.1-1.4-0.7-1.0
Domestic uses-4.2-1.0-8.4-3.9-3.7
Exports-9.4-3.2-22.3-9.2-2.9
Imports-8.5-1.6-17.2-9.9-5.1
Gross domestic product (GDP)-4.9-1.8-11.3-3.9-2.7
memorandum item:
GDP per person in employment-3.9-2.1-10.1-2.3-1.1
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment-0.2-0.2-2.40.41.7
onsumption expenditure-2.5-0.2-5.9-1.2-2.9
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs-3.2-0.7-6.8-1.9-3.4
Government final consumption expenditure0.70.50.90.70.5
Gross capital formation-1.5-0.8-2.0-2.6-0.6
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-0.7-0.1-1.7-0.8-0.2
GFCF in construction0.20.50.1-0.10.3
GFCF in machinery and equipment-0.8-0.6-1.7-0.7-0.5
GFCF in other products0.00.0-0.10.00.0
Changes in inventories and so on-0.8-0.7-0.3-1.8-0.4
Domestic uses-4.0-0.9-7.9-3.7-3.5
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)-0.9-0.9-3.5-0.20.8

 

 Use of the gross domestic product
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures using X13
 2020
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
1 Only seasonally adjusted.
qtr = quarter
At current prices
EUR bn.
Consumption expenditure629.146587.485626.188615.206
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs446.736399.168436.399424.883
Government final consumption expenditure182.410188.317189.789190.323
Gross capital formation182.777163.025157.543171.998
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)188.388176.574182.349185.098
GFCF in construction99.99796.12093.43295.757
GFCF in machinery and equipment55.43947.17854.90054.958
GFCF in other products32.95233.27634.01734.383
Domestic uses811.923750.510783.731787.204
Exports392.876310.577365.638383.681
Imports345.436281.275310.542324.059
Gross domestic product (GDP)859.363779.812838.827846.826
Price-adjusted, change on the previous quarter in %
Consumption expenditure-1.5-7.27.5-2.5
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs-2.3-11.010.8-3.3
Government final consumption expenditure0.52.10.6-0.5
Gross capital formation-0.9-6.8-4.88.3
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-0.8-6.63.91.0
GFCF in construction4.3-4.3-1.31.8
GFCF in machinery and equipment-6.9-15.115.9-0.1
GFCF in other products-4.10.61.90.6
Domestic uses-1.4-7.14.7-0.3
Exports-3.3-20.418.04.5
Imports-2.0-15.99.03.7
Gross domestic product (GDP)-2.0-9.78.50.3
memorandum item: 
GDP per person in employment-2.0-8.48.70.3
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1-0.8-2.32.92.0
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP
in % points
Consumption expenditure-1.1-5.35.7-1.9
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs-1.2-5.75.5-1.8
Government final consumption expenditure0.10.40.1-0.1
Gross capital formation-0.2-1.5-1.11.6
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-0.2-1.50.90.2
GFCF in construction0.5-0.5-0.20.2
GFCF in machinery and equipment-0.5-1.01.00.0
GFCF in other products-0.20.00.10.0
Changes in inventories and so on0.00.0-2.01.4
Domestic uses-1.3-6.84.6-0.3
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)-0.7-2.93.90.6
Gross value added by economic sector
 2020
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing22.0895.7715.8515.3675.100
Industry, excluding construction690.275183.175150.343170.199186.558
including:
Manufacturing593.849157.121128.897147.923159.908
Construction182.46638.29044.44646.35653.374
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services473.939118.432109.339124.846121.322
Information and communication155.35239.60935.53740.02340.183
Financial and insurance activities116.90729.30829.10429.26229.233
Real estate activities334.37483.53181.54385.07784.223
Business services337.62390.35075.87985.87785.517
Public services, education, health591.704149.217136.274149.403156.810
Other services109.15629.71824.04829.39825.992
Gross value added, total3,013.885767.401692.364765.808788.312
Price-adjusted, Change on the previous year in %
Agriculture, forestry and fishing-0.70.0-1.0-0.8-1.0
Industry, excluding construction-9.7-6.0-21.2-10.0-1.8
including:
Manufacturing-10.5-6.2-22.7-10.9-2.0
Construction2.86.22.0-1.85.3
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services-6.10.1-14.3-3.5-6.3
Information and communication-0.90.5-2.9-0.8-0.6
Financial and insurance activities-0.21.1-0.5-0.8-0.4
Real estate activities-0.50.7-1.5-0.3-0.9
Business services-8.1-1.6-13.0-8.8-9.1
Public services, education, health-3.0-0.5-8.30.0-3.2
Other services-11.4-2.3-19.7-5.8-18.2
Gross value added, total-5.2-1.5-11.5-4.4-3.6
Distribution of gross national income
2020
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn
Gross national income3,427.144878.336781.916866.792900.100
Net national income (factor costs)2,492.685634.090562.808632.121663.666
Compensation of employees1,841.366445.118437.170455.087503.991
Property and entrepreneurial income651.319188.972125.638177.034159.675
Gross wages and salaries of employees1,509.434365.613355.023374.085414.713
Net wages and salaries of employees1,017.175245.733234.230258.327278.885
memorandum item:
Disposable income of households1,983.044507.477481.983494.900498.684
Savings ratio (in %)16.216.220.013.215.7
Change on the previous year in %
Gross national income-3.30.7-8.8-3.2-1.9
Net national income (factor costs)-2.80.9-8.4-2.6-1.3
Compensation of employees-0.23.0-3.2-0.6-0.1
Property and entrepreneurial income-9.3-3.7-22.8-7.4-4.9
Gross wages and salaries of employees-0.82.9-4.5-1.1-0.5
Net wages and salaries of employees-0.32.8-3.9-0.30.2
memorandum item:
Disposable income of households0.72.6-0.90.60.3

Visualised national accounts

The gross domestic product also forms part of the Crisis Monitor (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), by means of which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of major short-term indicators in the corona crisis and the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The Crisis Monitor complements the Corona Statistics webpage (www.destatis.de/corona), which provides statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. Visualised updated results are also available in our interactive national accounts dashboard (only in german).

More information

More information on the quality of the GDP early estimate and on why the Federal Statistical Office has started to release the more rapid calculation of the GDP as of the second quarter of 2020 just in times of the coronavirus pandemic is given in our podcast at www.destatis.de --> Themen --> Wirtschaft --> Volkswirtschaftliche-Gesamtrechnungen-Inlandsprodukt --> Aktuelles. For an English-language text version please go to www.destatis.de --> Themes --> Economy --> National accounts, domestic product --> Current news.

More detailed results have been published in Fachserie 18 “National Accounts“, Series 1.2 “Quarterly results“ and Series 1.3„Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using X13“. The above and other publications are provided at www.destatis.de --> Themes --> Economy --> National accounts, domestic product --> Publications.

A long time series containing quarterly results of the gross domestic product since the first quarter of 1970 is available at www.destatis.de --> Topics: National accounts --> Domestic product --> Tables.

The above and other current national accounting results are available in the GENESIS-Online database. (81000)

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