RU CPI m/m

US This week is all about inflation. Annual inflation will tumble as energy prices drop and due to base effects, but many traders will pay close attention to the core readings. CPI on a monthly basis is expected to increase by 0.3%, higher than May’s pace of 0.1%. The headline annual reading is expected to fall from 4.0% to 3.0%. The monthly core reading is expected to rise 0.3%, while the year-over-year reading softens to 5.0%. Expectations are for pricing pressures to edge higher going forward. The upcoming week is filled with Fed ...

Can the Fed afford to ease off the brake? The end of last week was a bit of a reality check for investors that were maybe getting a little carried away with the supposed “dovish pivot” from the Fed and turning a blind eye to the data and what central bank policymakers were saying. Perhaps the experience of the last 12 months can explain the latter but there’s no ignoring the data that we saw on Friday. The US economy is certainly not behaving like it’s in a recession; rather the labour market is so hot that the Fed may not be able to ...

On Wednesday, Russia reported this year's last set of macroeconomic data, covering preliminary estimates of December CPI and November actvity indicators. The deck of charts below summarises the key observations and takeaways. charts Given that the softening in the income and consumption trend is taking place amid elevated lending growth and low propensity to save, we believe fighting stickier-than-expected inflation will remain a priority for the central bank, which aims for 4.0-4.5% CPI by the end of next year. We reiterate our ...

Inflation has been the source of bad news for the most part of this year, but in September it got worse. The spike from 6.7% year-on-year in August to 7.4% YoY in September and 7.5% YoY in the beginning of October outpaced the latest 7.3% YoY expectations and is 0.3 percentage points higher than the rate we and the market expected only a month ago. Most importantly, core CPI jumped from 7.1% to 7.6%, the highest level since April 2016. Here are our key observations and takeaways from the latest CPI print: Both headline CPI and ...

Russian CPI spiked by 0.5 percentage points to 6.0% year-on-year in May (Figure 1), which is a 4.5 year high. Last month's result exceeds the preliminary data by 0.1ppt and market expectations by 0.2ppt. The pick-up was assured not just by the lower base effect in the food segment, but also due to broad-based pressure in the non-food products segment, which contributed 2.1ppt to the overall CPI (Figure 2), the highest contribution in 4 years. The strongest price pressure was seen in construction material, related to the construction ...

Russian CPI was reported at 5.8% year-on-year in March, up from February's 5.7% YoY, in line with the market consensus. There are both positive and negative observations from the data and context. On the positive side, the annual inflation rate seems to have peaked, and is likely to go down from here, helped by the stabilisation in the global prices for key agricultural items in March, and by the higher base effect for local CPI, that will be gaining importance starting from now, as inflation picked up by 3.2 percentage points in the ...