RU Industrial Production y/y

Russian industrial production dropped 3.7% year-on-year in February, which is a deterioration vs. the upwardly revised -1.9% YoY (from an initial -2.5% YoY) seen in January and a material underperformance vs. -2.0% YoY Reuters consensus. Meanwhile, the result is still better than our conservative forecast of -4.8% YoY, which was based on expectations of restrained economic activity and adverse calendar effect related to the 2020 leap year. We have the following takeaways: • To remind, any first estimate of Russian industrial ...

The offical first estimate of January industrial output in Russia indicates a 2.5% YoY drop, which may seem like a huge disappointment relative to the Reuters consensus of -0.1% and our +0.3% YoY forecast. However, we doubt this number is indicative of actual trends in industrial output. Firstly, as we have warned, the January data is heavily affected by an adverse calendar effect of around 1 pps on the one hand, and by moderate positive effect of around 0.5 pps thanks to cold weather (through higher output of electricity and heat). ...

According to preliminary data, Russian industrial production saw a very shallow 0.2% year-on-year drop in December 2020, which is significantly better than the -3.0% Reuters consensus and our expectations of -1.5%. As a result of this and a 1.1 percentage point upgrade of the November number to -1.5% YoY, the full-year drop in industrial production was limited to -2.9% YoY, which is better than the -3.5% we expected. We generally take the numbers positively, but note that a number of support factors might have been temporary: The ...

Russian industrial production should post a mild improvement in September, however, it will be largely a reflection of the favourable calendar effect (extra working day, supporting manufacturing data), rather than improvement in the mood, as shown by the recent deterioration in the PMI reading. The stabilization and potential rollback in the fiscal support (also likely to be confirmed by the budget fulfilment data to be released next week) and uncertainties regarding consumer demand should limit the pace of the recovery. This, ...

Russian industrial output drop narrowed from -9.4-9.6% year-on-year seen in May-June to -8.0% YoY in July. While this result is in line with the concentrated consensus of -7.9%, we still take the result as positive for the following reasons: The improvement comes despite the adverse calendar effect, as July 2020 had 1 working day fewer than a year ago, as opposed to June 2020, which had the opposite situation. Workday effect normally reduces the output in regular manufacturing sectors. It also goes against the deterioration in the ...

Manufacturing sector underperforms despite favourable calendar effect and recovery in consumer-driven sectors Russian industrial production dropped 9.4% year-on-year in June, showing little improvement vs. the 9.6% YoY drop in May. The June result is worse than the -7.2% consensus and is even further away from our more optimistic expectations of -6.0%. The negative result comes despite the favourable calendar effect. Even accounting for the extra day-off related to the constitutional vote (Wednesday, 1 July), the number of working ...

May industrial output challenged by OPEC+, end of food and paper stockpiling, and calendar effect The overall Russian industrial production saw a deepening in the drop from -6.6% YoY in April to -9.6% year-on-year in May, being on the pessimistic side of the consensus range and below our 7.0% expectations. Meanwhile, looking at the details, we do not take the overall result too negatively. • The May cut in oil production mandated by OPEC+ seems to be the main drag: the extraction of oil and gas dropped 14.3% YoY in May (vs. -1.1% YoY ...