GE Federal Elections

The conservative alliance made up by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) is set to lead Germany again following the federal election on Sunday, bringing an end to a period of political instability that has dogged Berlin for months. The center-right CDU-CSU won 28.6% of votes, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming in second place with 20.8%, while the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) came in third with 16.4% of the vote, according to preliminary results ...

Yesterday, fifty-nine million voters cast their ballots in what is considered a defining election for Europe’s future. It was a big night for the Christian Democrats, which came out on top. This is a good reason for Merz, the likely next chancellor, to celebrate – but maybe not too hard, as the far-right AfD is now the second force in parliament. For the Social Democrats, it was more of an existential crisis, performing the lowest score ever in a result that Scholz himself described as a "defeat." But what happens next? And what does ...

Friedrich Merz’s CDU and the Bavarian sister party, CSU, have won the German elections, getting some 28% of the votes. The far-right AfD came in as the second largest party with some 20%, followed by the SPD (16%), Greens (12%), the Left Party (9%) and BSW (5%). At 9:00pm CET, the FDP had not made it into parliament with slightly less than the required 5% threshold. However, given how close it is, the final result could still shift the balance for BSW and FDP. The 84% voter turnout was the highest since reunification. A few important ...

Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be.

When German voters go to the polls Sunday, the country’s moribund economy — and promises to fix it — will be front of mind. But Donald Trump’s looming import tariffs will make that daunting task even harder for the new government. Failure would be costly. If the parties most likely to form a new governing coalition do not manage to kick-start economic growth, “they know who’s going to win the next elections, and this would be the far-right AfD,” said Carsten Brzeski, a senior economist at pan-European bank ING, echoing others’ fears ...

Friedrich Merz, migration hardliner and longtime rival of Angela Merkel, is expected to become Germany’s next chancellor. His party the Christian Democratic Union is leading polls alongside its affiliate the Christian Social Union just days before the election. Back in September, Merz was elected as the CDU’s party’s designated candidate for chancellor in this year’s federal elections, after leading the organization and heading the opposition CDU-CSU parliamentary group since 2022. The CSU is a regional party which has dominated ...

The next leader of Europe's biggest economy will face a public deeply dissatisfied with living standards, housing and less tolerant towards migrants than in previous years. Germany will head to the polls on Sunday after an unexpectedly short election campaign marked by a fierce debate on immigration, security, and a consistently poor economic outlook. The leader of the largest opposition party, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, looks poised to be the country's next chancellor according to the latest ...