ok first off everybody that warned me about the usdcad was right. it did drop like a ton of bricks and these types of observations are great for me becaus now i have to analize why it didnt reverse where i thought it might.
second, Jim I am so confused with your money management posts??? Please I don't mean any disrespect and I sort of grasp what you are saying but i really disagree with you and im sure it is my lack of experiance.
lets see if I can explain......
you say one trade is an anual salary for most while mike says 5% a month is...
Let's say I have $250,000 @ 3% is $7500.
$7500/50 pip stop loss = $150 a pip. (roughly)
If I took this Gbp/Jpy 4 Hour BUOB trade (and didn't take anything off the table ) it would be worth, 500 pip move x 150 a pip = $75,000
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The big proviso Jarroo is people knowing their inner self and getting to grips with trading psychology.
How many traders could let a trade continue without scaling after 100 pips, let alone 500?
And what effect would the trade have on a trader's esteem if it fell all the way back to the breakeven stop before profit was taken.
Guess I'm just trying to get across the point that trading psychology is very important.
Absolutely.
I'm sure Jim would have got out much earlier and probably would have waited for the retest or close above the 150.00 with his stop at breakeven.
Learning to let winners run is a big psychological barrier that everyone has to weather through. Taking some of the table and knowing the worst possible out come on the 2nd half would be zero, makes it a lot easier for me.
Sure you get a lot of break even trades ( which is good for the account ) but then that one that goes to the moon makes all thoses breakeven trades worth it.
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Do you have any special reason why to draw the fib from the 30/06 high and not from the 12/6 high?
If you draw from the 12/6 high the 61.8 level would be around 156.50...
regards,
Luso
The 30/6 was the last major swing high point on the Daily time frame.
Bullish PA may be tempting at the 155.00 PPZ level to reach the 160.00 which is also a PPZ level.
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I am out for 18 pips for half of my position on the EJ. I should move my stop to 132.90 after it reach my first tp area. Even it took my stoploss, I can still at least BE or make tiny pips. But I don't have time to do the changes. Anyway, still a winner...
But I might miss a big move.
Pipping.
Nothing wrong with taking some off the table and movng to break even or 18 pips away from break even (in you case) to net you zero pips if it stops you out. It might mean that you get stopped out then turn in your favor, so what. Many times it won't.
Think of that for a monment. Your in a trade, with nothing to loss and a very high potential gain as an outcome. How many times would you take that deal?
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Hey ghous, do you see a 2 Doji side by side on the Gbp/Jpy 4 hour chart? You gotta like the location of confluences at the 155.00.
Ghous: "Yes jarroo, that's the same formations I was illustrating on the Eur/Cad. Now, notice that they were on the Weekly time frame so their strength and responsiveness will be better reflected. We all know how you feel about higher time frames jarroo."
jarroo: "Thanks ghous. Your the best."
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OMG! I don't want to see how far it runs now, I knew it will happen like this if we stick with our trading style.
No regret and i knew it will save me next time if there is a small pin bar happened again the same, you never know where the price will go, but I know minimize the loss is my first priority.
Jarroo, do you get stop out on this trade or you still in right now?
Pipping
Pipping, its all good my friend.
This is why we practise and how we learn. The power of strong supporting confluences (133.00, PPZ level and 61.8 fib) was the key player in this trade. Isn't this always the case in the best PA setups.
I thought I was going to be stopped out on the 4 hour BarBreak, but the 133.00 level was too strong. (chart shows this on the Hourly).
I thought you left BarBreak stoploss after you took the 18 pips?
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I took the TP and I am expecting the price will come back and test the break of the 4h pin bar, I set my stoploss 5 pips above the break of the pin bar.
I not sure if it will take me out but I did try this lots of time and it works. Market just want to test the break and go into my favor again. Happen so many time.
Hope this time will do the same! If not, I am still a winner on this trade.
Pipping
We don't "Hope" in trading Pipping. "Hope" means that we are not confident in our setup or the setup is not of high quality. We have a simple plan and apply it.
Also, always be aware of the higher time frame levels when your trading the 4 hour time frame. We could be going down to the 1.4000, possible to the 1.3900. Price has been is consolidating on the Daily for some time.
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Pretty new to the thread.
Not new to trading.
Been trading and breaking even for quite awhile...
This stuff has been pushing my equity curve upward.
Betting small for now as developing more and more confidence. =)
Read through the 1st 100++ pages of the thread.
It's AWESOME STUFF.
I'm a convert.
And yes, THANK YOU JAMES.
Quick question, I refer to post #37677 by Jarroo on the thread, pg 2512.
This be a 16 hour pinbar per se right?...
Not a strict PB in the way we trade them, Open and Close not within the previous bar. But Mr. Pring would say "looks good".
You can combine any number of bars, in any way you want. You would be surprised what you will see. J16 PA turns up in many different combos.
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I'll tell you what I did when I was new. Jarroo helped me blow up quite a few demo accounts and more importantly I blew my confidence in the method, The great man probably doesn't even know about it nor do most of you here.
Ghous.
Sorry about that ghous. I did post not-so-great setups relying more on the hard break, quick stop loss placement, etc. The trade management on thoses are totally different then an A+ setup. I'm sure I didn't give much detail into that part of the trades. Ooops. I don't post them any more for obvious reasons (confusion). Although I did post them before they broke. lol
Anyway its great seeing how well you have come along since then. And how you help others.
Jim
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Lol, I actually have realized that I notice long trades a lot easier then I notice short trades... or at least the ones that appear at top or bottom of my charts. I've been thinking of turning upside down to look for shorts, but it just feels a little stupid I probably won't get much help here anymore lol
I've looked at that before. Inverting and turning up side down my charts to see Price Action from a different points of veiw. Then I decided to keep it simple. lol
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Thank you for sharing this new Mike's Holy Grail Method with us. I have some questions.
1) Do you put the glasses on at London open? What time do you put the glasses on?
2) Can you explain your entry and SL for this method? Do you enter on the blue lens or the red? Do you place stop behind the glasses or in front of them?
3) Can these glasses be worn on the lower timeframes or will I go blind?
4) Is it possible to use yellow and green lens filters, changing to blue and red when daily stochastics cross over and RSI enters overbought conditions?...
Good one Tia. lol
I'll have to start by taking off the beer goggles first. (what a weekend. )
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I barely ever post here, I do over at the PF but afraid to say am a serial lurker at FF. Been at it again and after reading your commentary on the GBP/JPY pair, felt I'd weigh in for a change.
I'm looking to short the pair after the daily PB formed in my Oanda platform. I'm being conservative and have set a limit sell at 154.59 so will see what happens. Theres some confluence with the round number 155 PPZ as you say, also with the 61.8% Fib level. Nose could be longer and I will look to move stop to breakeven if price gets to...
Trade what you see. I think your assessment of the size of the PB is right, it could be a bit bigger. And managing it tightly is a wise choice. Let's see how hard she breaks. (if she breaks).
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hey Jarroo
u r not alone in this trade, already managed to get to be on my chfjpyh4 short after taking PP, entered a bit earlier though..now waiting to do the same with audjpy
Very nice squeezy. It went right where it was suppose to go. Why didn't I use this one to see which would win. lol.
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i had my SL a bit higher than that, so im still in but its taking too long...anyways as long as my stop hasnt been hit...its all good
if i were using ur bar break method which i use from time to time, i would have been 10pips above the triggered bar which is about 76.57 & it hasnt been hit yet but close...
lets see how it plays......
Or you could place the stop loss above the top of the BEOB (on the Aud/Jpy) which is a more proper placement when trading PA. I'm sure Mike and clockwork would agree.
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yeah true, the traditional way is usually the best i guess....lol
It usually is in direct proportion with the quality of the setup. Meaning, the higher the quality the proper placement (above or below) the given setup is best suited. But I understand hard break, quick b/e placement that most lower quality setups require.
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thanks jarroo
i see wat u mean, the better the quality of pa, the more room u give to the trade...
when placing ur stop loss, do u add the spread to it...just curious
thnx
Yes, I usually add the spread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PippingMama
Hello Jarroo,
The light blue area is your first TP area?
Will you use full bar stop on this trade or just the bar break stop?
Thanks!
PippingM
Once Price hit the 1st TP (blue) I will take half off and move to break even, most of the time.
1st half gave up about 30 pips and the BarBreak stop loss would be about -20 pips on the 2nd half. I may at times instead of moving to break even I will use the BarBreak when it still nets me positive pips, in this case it would have been a net 10 pips. That's if I got every inch of the move which is not likely.
The quality of this Usd/Jpy Daily PB was not an A+ setup by any means. So my approach, if I decided to take it, would be cautious and tight. I didn't take this trade (missed it) but it would have been a net zero to +10 pip trade.
Reducing my risk while giving the trade some room to run is what I like to achieve.
Jim
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So glad you posted this Jim. This was exactly how I played this. I thought "Not an A+ setup so play tight and go to break even at the previous highs." At the highs I went to break even minus 10 (because of the strength of the break I wanted to give it a little room) and then it stopped me out for a small loss before moving on to a 1:1 plus return. On my "Jarroo demo" account I had a similar result. Tighter stops but still the same approach and quick to break even.
But I felt a bit annoyed about it all day because of how it ran. This still...
Hey Aaron.
" . . Jarroo looked at that UJ and he didn't think "how could I have made money from that move?". He said "even though I didn't take this, I know that the way I trade I would most likely have been out for break even."
It is a diffferent way to look at a trade. Many see how much they can profit from a trade and I do look at potential targets, for sure.
But my main focus is "How can I minimize or eliminate the risk in a trade once it starts going in my direction". "Where are the turning points within the setup to protect me even more."
It is my opinion, that if more people looked at reducing or eliminating risk, they would be far better off.
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Great post Jim, realizing that approach was an eureka moment for me, that really helps, is very simple and eliminates the fear of losing completely.
Got no time to be afraid anymore. lol
Observing the trade management style of James16, learning the Price Action stucture of a highly confluenced setup from Mike, noting the high layered confluence of a great location from raczek, etc . . . sure can make for a great trade.
The tight trade management style does make for more relaxing trades for me as well.
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This has been said before, but don't focus on the profit, just focus on taking good trades and becoming a good trader. Look at things in percentage terms. You'd be surprised at the change in your bottom line by taking this approach.
Scott
It can't be said enough scott.
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There is a great post from James16 on this. I'm suprised jaroo hasn't posted it yet
In your situation, I would look at #4.
This is seriously important to watch these areas, as james says, if we aren't prepared before we put the trade on, these areas can give us a loss. Read this, write it out, print it, hang it on your computer. It will save and help you a lot more than you think.
"THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into...
lol Nice one scott.
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Im on demo for the foreseeable future but would still like any feedback from anyone on this thread regarding my trades.
Ok, my first ever J16 demo trade, im taking this quick 50 pips scalp got my SL down to 70 below the eye, so not 1:1 but im not worrying about R:R just where I see price going.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tac
Hey Guys,
Just a quick update before I go to work, my first demo trade went exactly to the pip where I placed my T/P. I know not all will be like this but thanks to Jim and the guys, this thread is absolutely invaluable. . 2% Risked gained 1.58%.
Regards
Tac
Very nice tac. Although not the best setup we look for . . but within the teachings of the big guy.
Notice the break of this Daily PB blue (30min chart to show break) very hard and strong. This is what I look for for confirmation that the setup is correct.
Notice the other PB (green) break was soso but it had a better confluence of a PPZ and 38.2 at the 94.50. The trade did reach the obvious target in purple.
Don't know if you took all off the table but a partial position at break even could go to the moon or the 96.00, 150 ema, 61.8 , which is the same thing. lol
Nice trade to learn from tac.
Jim
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Yeah, I knew it wasn't a A+, although the local levels it rejected and it shape showed a sharp rejection, I intend to play these setups and just take full profit at the first minor area of S/R (which is what I did here), Its the A+ setups that ill be more inclined to let them run longer. Thanks for the charts very useful.
Even better tac. Not a bad way to go to take full profit on less the A+ setups.
But you never know . . . .
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True but rather than sit babysitting a trade I would rather take profit where I know price should go based on this material. If that it 50 pips away or 500 then so be it. I will play as many pin bars as I can (on daily that are valid and have a chance of making at least 0.5RR) in order to learn them inside out, I think trading a set-up makes you more involved. This may evolve but for now I am on a mission to master the pin bar.
Thanks for the input it is appreciated Jarro. I look forward to more posts.
Absolutely Tac. You can study charts and sink yourself into the material all day long. (which we do), but actually demoing the trade, the phyical application and management of the trade, is where we learn the most. I agee.
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For those that know Jim on a more personal level like me, know that he will literally bend around backwards to help you. No matter what it is. When you do that for someone, give them everything, and then dump all over that, do you not expect Jim to be emotionally upset.
Others like SP have said everything I want to say.
Jim is a great man, he deserves a hell of a lot better then to be treated this way. Most of us would not even be here trading, doing what we do without him.
Mike
This is what is so confusing. Knowing how Jim is . . . why not talk to him about it first? Or bounce it off you, Mike then Jim?
Why not consult with Jim about all of it. It just seems that if it worked out, Jim may have even promoted it or not. He then could promoted the PF, and so on.
He knows Jim, its not that he isn't approachable. It just seems that there would be more benefit to him if he talked to Jim first and foremost.
. . . . . . unless his intentions were not pure.
Its very disappointing.
Edit : He was getting paid too. Very cold stuff and shameful.
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Amatuer opinion, pretty sure the experienced guys will be able to expand...
(if you want really good feedback from Mike/James et al, you should probably explain what you saw in each setup so they can go through it)
1. Are you playing the break of the previous IB? Because, if so, you want your trade where the bar was broken, not at the bottom of the next bar. Either that, or it was a pretty good BEOB that never broke.
I dont see any other trade here, it is a double bar low but didnt even come close to making a higher close.
2. Break of an...
Nice work joel.
#1 is a BEOB at a swing low, so that's a no trade. Unless the trend is continuating. Tight trade management on this one, risky. If it breaks, it did by a few pips but not enough to trigger my buffer 6 to 8 pips.
#2 is a BUOB and a beauty. "A+" quality in my book. At a swing low and some divergence. Nice.
#3 BUOB at a swing high. possible Price continuation (see #1)
#4 BEOB (there is also a #4.5 BEOB can you see it) at swing highs good potential trades. Breaks were weak which shows up trend may continue or ranging period.
#5 BUOB at a swing high no trade or see #1.
# 6 ??
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Mike ... or anyone else please: this trade was not A+ I know... but seemed like a gimmee.. it did work nicely but I wanted to understand how much of it was fluke and how much sense?? 45pips
Not a flule salisa. PA can be a powerful thing, but on the hourly chart we need more confluences to give strength to our setup. Your BEOB (blue) is off a swing high and recent highs, which is good. Its not at the peak or top of the swing high but there none the less. Meaning its crowded by other bars (candles). Off a nice round number(78.00). No obvious divergence. A hard break is what I would look for next. Which was nice.
The green BEOB. At swing high, at a peak, divergence, round number (77.00). Nice hard break and next bar break. A better setup to look for.
Jim
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Although I'm not a great one for moving to BE either, I feel that you should be looking at the impact that partial profit taking may be having on your bottom line. If you're looking at this stuff correctly then you should have a clear...
I'm working on this too, Peter. I have had trades like this year's Usd/Cad where I had 1450 pips with only 20% of my position.
I'm getting there slowly.
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That massive clear divergence is KILLER when you just wait it out for a nice PA bar.
So not only do you plot ahead strong areas of heavy confluences (i.e. Round numbers, fibs, etc) but developed divergences while waiting for PA. Very Nice.
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Yeah I mean everyone knows my love for round numbers. But certain scenarios become great pa areas. When you have that massive divg + a double top scenario forming, it is nearly money in the bank if you wait for PA. The last BEOB on gbp/usd I got out at breakeven, b/c I took my chances for a larger move. But no way you could have taken a loss on that one.
I love the divergence where it is impossible for that oscillator to catch up before some sort of retrace.
Mike
You mean this one Mike.
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yes, I thought that might have been the "bigger" retrace coming. I was wrong, and stopped out at b/e. We look to be having another shot at it. Patience is the key here
You really don't take partial profits. Wow. lol.
But if that when down to test the year's lows you would have been the King. It starting to make sense to be Mike . . . and Peter.
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I called it what I did simply because I wanted the phrase to delineate the true meaning...
I don't know and don't care what it is called if at all it does have a name, crows sisters brothers soldiers etc etc...all that is primarily BS.
What I tried to emphasize was that a good understanding of PA goes beyond a trio of PA bars that you look to trade off good locations.period.
It's the basic understanding of current market sentiments long term and short term and how they get "priced in" in the bars that you see not necessarily...
Or in other words, it's a reversal pattern.
Just kidding ghous . . . Great post.
Strong area of confluence on the Daily at 87.00ish. 150 ema, 61.8 and .8700 Daily / Weekly PPZ.
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Nothing wrong abt being picky specially when you're on a lower time frame.
Your "traffic" concern was very much valid,
This was NOT in any way one of the 3-4 setups you want over the month via a super conservative approach.
Importantly you must know yourself.
If you're a trader more like Jim and Mike you gotta just watch such PA from the side lines and enjoy,
If you're a jarroo you would go for it and..."manage it tight"
If you're a Razcekfx you would have longed the pin right off the end of the nose and be happy...
All good things said, ghous.
That's the beauty of this thread. Different approaches or styles to skin a cat. The "cat" being what Jim is teaching us here. The foundation of the J16 way: Great bars at great locations, Highly confluenced areas with Price Action confirmation, "Where is Price heading? Right where it was suppose to go. If Price hits this obvious area and then you take a loss, its time to rethink if that makes any sense.", and so on and so on.
My point being is that by learning these different styles we find a better understanding on how Price moves and how a setup can best be traded. Sure, one may find an approach that fits them best and they only stick with one.
But its great to be able to see an opportunity (the "cat") and apply a different style (the "knife") to reap a nice gain.
Jim
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Very nice tac. Although not the best setup we look for . . but within the teachings of the big guy.
Notice the break of this Daily PB blue (30min chart to show break) very hard and strong. This is what I look for for confirmation that the setup is correct.
Notice the other PB (green) break was soso but it had a better confluence of a PPZ and 38.2 at the 94.50. The trade did reach the obvious target in purple.
Don't know if you took all off the table but a partial position at break even could go to the moon or the 96.00, 150 ema, 61.8 ,...
Quote:
Originally Posted by tac
Hi Jarroo,
Yeah, I knew it wasn't a A+, although the local levels it rejected and it shape showed a sharp rejection, I intend to play these setups and just take full profit at the first minor area of S/R (which is what I did here), Its the A+ setups that ill be more inclined to let them run longer. Thanks for the charts very useful. I dont care now if it runs to the moon, I got my profit .
Hey tac.
I know you are you happy with your trade results from this 7/23/09 Usd/Jpy PB (blue box) and well you should be. Very nice.
But letting trades run, I believe, is a result that we all work on fullfilling. Many of my largest gains were the result of moving to break even then hiding under the next strong, confluenced areas. These have been with the 2nd half position or even less the half position. ( I do this with many of my trades, even the A+ one, I still learning to let the whole position run on a strong move, Thanks Mike .)
I know this was a less then "A" quality setup and you well stated your reasons for taking profits where you did. But sometimes when a tightly managed, less then A+ trade turns in to a runner . . . its something to consider.
Just giving you something to think about. Not trying to be preachy.
Anyway, great trade.
Jim
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I say that that trade blasted through my TP. I definitely want to catch runners and will be gradually trying to develop a good exit strategy to enable this. Thanks
Mark
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just to show what i mean by developing as a trader..
I am horrible at holding positions long term but I am trying to change that.
I do scalp.
I hate going negative..
but as a learning process I am demoing some trades. I will show you one.
Its not important to me weather this trade works or not but it is a lesson in sticking with the original plan till pa tells me otherwise.
I entered on the break of first pin & I thought this was a good area so wanted to give it some time.
It went to 1st supp as you would expect & this is where i normally...
Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff
good push down today.
1st target reached.
next area is 84 then 82.
Very nice jeff.
Just wanted to highlight more on the strength of the 87.00ish level. Its a very heavy confluenced level. PPZ level, 61.8, RD, 150 ema, with the down trend . . . wow, anything else?
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Any Idea Why This PB Failed ? It's Even Passed The Previous Low.
Regards,
Basber
The size was too small compared to the strong move down. Also, playing iinto a some traffic on the left. To fight through that traffic, would like to have a bigger size (longer nose).
Many times Price Action will cut through a lot of traffic, if the size and supporting confluences have strength.
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Yeah I think I heard it somewhere on the PF from Mike, that after a quick, sharp move down, you some times get a small pin bar, before it continues. One to filter out.
Absolutely. Also one to trade if it fails. but that's another story.
Let's see a chart, Mark. It can't be that bad.
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I've been watching this pair for a while too... wondering if/when it will make a move lower, or breakout higher...
Got a touch of the trendline today and a move higher back into the 4hr traffic.
Josh
I've been watching this one as well josh. I can't tell where this one wants to go. its been consolidating on the weekly for a few weeks.
On the Daily, the .6500 (also 50% retrace) first acted as resistence (green) and then its now acting as support (blue). Ok, I get it, .6500 is a strong PPZ level. Now where do you want to go Mr. Nzd? lol
Some good divergence on the Daily, now let's see some strong PA.
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I've been watching this one as well josh. I can't tell where this one wants to go. its been consolidating on the weekly for a few weeks.
On the Daily, the .6500 (also 50% retrace) first acted as resistence (green) and then its now acting as support (blue). Ok, I get it, .6500 is a strong PPZ level. Now where do you want to go Mr. Nzd? lol
Some good divergence on the Daily, now let's see some strong PA.
I might have spoke without looking a little closer. 2 Day BEOB engulfing about 6 days. It doesn't show well on the period converter. That could be it.
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You are right, Jarro! I'm still waiting!
I can not see any 2day pin bar on my D2 chart! Maybe after this D2 bar will finsh will see D4 pinbar!
Am I wrong?
Not at all.
And maybe at the end of the week we may finish with a Weekly PB.
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And signals across the board last night to short NZD. All with divergence.
Many pairs seem to have that "turning over" feel. And many at crucial areas. Good PA will reveal itself (sometimes after a little periodcon digging) and these moves could be ones to last for a long time.
Great spot Jim...
Thanks Tia. I've been combining bars for awhile. They can reveal many great setups that others or the market cannot see. (or maybe they do see them.)
Sometime I rely on that periodcon "identifier" too much, instead of using the best identifiers : my eyes. lol.
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You're chart is so clean, do you use anything besides the bars and Horizontal SR? MA's , divergence, trendlines, fibs?
Yes, besides PPZs and Bars (Price Action formations), I'll use Fib retracements, 50% retracements, Round Numbers, MACD divergence, long term MAs (365 ema, 150 ema), and sometimes high time frame trendlines.
But that's it. If they don't apply to the trade, I'll take them off so the chart looks a lot clearer.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Refer to James16 this is Critical:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
1. notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
2. know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping...
I love seeing this. It brought my trading to the next level. Period.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This made me so happy to see posted, although no surprise it was from you lol
Remember Jims chart about a poodle pinbar, and a pitbull pinbar. You need a pitbull to be able to fight off a strong move. The poodles work nicely in choppy markets. I run with the pitbulls
lol I like the pitbull pinbars in the choppy markets too.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
You are new to this stuff, and you nailed it that perfect? Man you are going to have no problems, just a matter of time and gaining that experience. Once you are able to effectively spot these areas, then it just becomes understanding yourself and what is comfortable. Most people are maybe partial off there stop to b/e. Others stop to b/e see if it breaks etc.
Well done man, really. If that doesn't put a smile on Jims face then I don't know what would
Mike
Yeah it will bring a smile on his face.
Cyrus, being relatively new to J16 and understanding this simple projection of where Price would likely go, after a solid PA setup, I would say your train of thought is right on track.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Mike,
how about the (minor) PPZ around 0.8570-80? does it suit your eye's attention? this PPZ (chocolate color) goes back to June3, or even way back to Nov25'08. it's visible in H4 & Daily chart. price formed a small PB off of that PPZ (& short of the 0.86round number), heralding the eventual (almost 100-pip) move down.
btw, what timezone is MT4NF? these charts are AFB MT4 (similar to FXPro, GMT + 3)
I asked because i noticed the difference between the two MT4's with regards the lower pink line/channel. MT4NF's pink line is quite far from the...
Wow. Nice charts sChaos.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
1. notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Man, That took over a year and half to sink into my head. I don't know why, it just did.
Life got a lot easier once it did.
I hear you. lol
I just thought PA would break right throught it and when it didn't, I would "hope" it would come back. I would take a big loss and wonder "why did that happen?" lol
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
You have to keep in mind that you can't know which trades are going to be big winners and which ones small winners. So don't beat yourself up in any way about this one not hitting the mother load or whatever. Just grind away like that and you'll catch some great movers some times as well.
,B
Read this every day for a month, Cyrus. I'm going to as well, just because its great.
And don't get cocky when the big runners hit, because they will hit.
(sorry, that last line was for me.)
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I am always very cautious when talking about PF and am keen to stress that everything you need is here. That's not because I am ambiguous about PF. As you can tell from what I wrote I think it's superb and the best money I ever spent.
It's more because I don't want someone reading this thread who can't afford PF to think "man all the good stuff is in there, and I can't afford it" This thread isn't a tease for the paid site. Everything you need really is here. It's one of the reasons I admire Jim, he basically gives...
What were you looking at Tia? I'm a lifetime member. LOL
I joined the PF for only a couple of months in 2006. Time, schedules and whatever gave me limited eyes on the computer back then. I remember I was thinking of rejoining again in late 2006 and asked Jim if I should wait until the new website was up to rejoin. He said wait until the new one was up. I never forgot that.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey oltciter. How did that 8 hour PB on the Gbp/Aud turn out for you?
Last time we spoke it had a nice hard break. Looking at it now, it went right where we thought it would go.
A classic J16 trade.
Although we would like a more definable location and confluences for Pin Bars, i.e. at a Swing Highs/Lows off of a strong PPZ level, Fib retracement, etc., this one proved successful.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey oltciter. How did that 8 hour PB on the Gbp/Aud turn out for you?
Last time we spoke it had a nice hard break. Looking at it now, it went right where we thought it would go.
A classic J16 trade.
Although we would like a more definable location and confluences for Pin Bars, i.e. at a Swing Highs/Lows off of a strong PPZ level, Fib retracement, etc., this one proved successful.
Yes, that Pin Bar in green would be the one we would want to look for. .
Guess where that 365 ema was at the time of that PB? Your correct, right on it.
The more supporting confluences the higher the quality of the setup becomes when Price Action finds a great location.
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This is entirely based on the shape of the return distribition of the instrument - mainly, its standard deviation, skewness and any kurtosis present.
Random walk models are based on a binomial distribution. It isnt a triangle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kk007
I can tell you it would be 75% without going to distribution/complicated calculation.
I enjoyed the conversation you guys had, joelck and kk007. Well the small parts I could understand. lol
I liked that line from joel that josh pointed out . ....Your problem here is that you are setting your TP based on your risk - making it a meaningless, arbitary number. You should be setting your TP based on where you think price will run into impediments. Doesn't that make sense.
I have one question for joelcf . . . . . . . . . . . . . Merlin? is that you?
Jim
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Take note it is John AKA johnnykanoo who found it. He can't upload a pic so I did and added explanations.
Good eye Johnny
Pin bar looks good, the close could be a little lower. PPZs look good (in blue).
Not sure where your (or his) 38.2 fib came from but the 61.8 is right in the mix along with the 150 ema (blue / 365 ema red) and strong round number, 1.0000.
MACD divergence, if any, looks weak. First trouble or traffic area in green. With the trend PB. I would use the 1st blue PPZ as the 1st TP then the next blue PPZ as the 2nd TP. Overall a nice setup.
Let's see how she breaks. (if she breaks).
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The fib ret is pulled from the high of November 2007 all the way down to the low of december 2008 and makes a good line of 38.2 crossing the nose of the PB.
Yes, I was mistaken with the divergence...I have placed the line wrong and confused my self...sorry
Ben
Yes I see where the 38.2 came from now. My bad.
Very nice. There's is nothing like mulitple confluences at given level. I'm liking this one more and more.
Boy, that Nov 07 BEOB was A++.
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There is a pin bar forming on the weekly EURCAD.
There is confluence of three fib rets.
There is also a nice bounce from the 365ema which is good in acting as a strong SR in swings.
Ohh and a mini PPZ as well.
The thing that bothers me is the lower highs and lower lows the price makes...in other words trading against the trend. But most likely it's time for a reserve, so I can take the train to the next lower low.
I am still confided that the 365ema will give it a nice bounce.
What do you think?
Bundy made some great points about the close. The PB is rather small compared to the 2 weeks of a strong down move.
You do have to like the heavy confluenced area of the PPZ level, 150 & 365 emas and the 50% retracement.
I like your style Ben.
Also . . . ."I am still confided that the 365ema will give it a nice bounce."
These tools . . MAs, Fib retracements, 50% retracements, S/R levels, Trendlines, MACD Divergence, etc. . . . have some or little strength by themselves but when they are aligned with each other, especially at a strong PPZ level, they are strengthen to a higher level when relating to Price. imo
For example, you may seen Price run into the 365 ema and bounce noticably. But if you look around to the left of that 365 ema you will find either PPZ level or a Fib level or something else that gave it strength.
just some thoughts,
Jim
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All of what Bundy said, EDIT: and what Jarroo said....
+
[size=4]The daily isn't looking too neat for a long either.
When I look at it on my chart I see bears rushing past the 50 fib which has worked well as a horizontal ppz , and what then? Nothing martian for anybody who understands the role of ppzs in a market and the reactions they bring about....A typical, breakout restest scenario
(can't bother longing a bearish breakout )
[size=2]Notice...
Nice observation ghous. Top notch.
Also, traders buying out of their shorts (so to speak) or getting out of their shorts causing the rise in Price. To get out before the weekend.
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what is ur prediction on GBp/yen for the next month
i would like to hear from you to confirm my view as i can see a bearish hanging man pattern on monthly chart
cheers
It looks like an IPB that could show a strong down move. I would have to ask ghous about that one.
Or that big Ole PB may break upward to the 165.00 which is a strong PPZ level near the 50% retrace. Hard to say.
Should be fun to watch.
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hello guys
sup jarroo, ghous and everyone else
just wanted to pitch in on the eurcadwkly pin
i like to keep my charts clean with nothing (no lines, emas etc) until i see pa , then i start looking for trouble areas & also put emas, fibs for confluence
on the 4hr chart , there was a small bullish pin which i diddnt like, so i didnt buy...but when i saw the buob, i entered on the break(i liked the divergence too on the 4hr)....which im still holding now at be
my main question now is this,....for someone who works mainly with the tf where he finds...
Very good Patience and trade management on that 4 hour BUOB, squeezy.
This is how we do it. We wait and wait until a strong and obvious PA presents itself with supporting confluences. I like how the BUOB engulfed many preceeding candles. I'm sure you saw the 4 hour PPZ (in green) that acted as support to confirm your BUOB. Well done.
Yes, stay with the time frame that your PA setup was given. If you don't it can get confusing. However, check higher time frames to see if conflicting PA may be present. The higher time frame PA will (most of the time) be stronger then your lower time frame PA.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Just a quickie to thank you all for your replies to my queries. That was very helpful and is very much appreciated.
I will come back to this end of the thread soon to read, and post again. In the meantime I'm still looking through tons of old posts, picking a few out to read. There are an awful lot of them, and I'm nearly up to page 800 of 2600, or June 2008.
There looks to be some good material in there, so I'm still making some notes, and I'm looking forward to looking at the other side, eventually.
My PM facility may be working soon,...
Are you sure you don't have any more questions JamesL?
Just kidding . . . don't answer that. lol
I would also like to thank those that took on those many questions. They were very helpful to many people.
(Mike Rules )
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
thnx jarroo,
dats wat i do most of the time, inorder not to get confused, i just watch how the triggerd bar closes most of the time before making harsh decisions which i might end up regretting....besides its one thing to know how to trade, and its another thing to know how to apply money management...this is the next thing ive been working on....becaue i know that there will be losers but keeping ur losers fixed is my concern
i have learnt pa & pz, now time to master money mgt (thnx mike) lol
lets see how next week plays out
On step at a time squeezy. Your on the right path.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
End of the Month is always a great time to check those Monthly PA possibilities. I like to see if any setups are formed or forming. Or just look for some great future or current locations.
Take the Usd/Cad monthly, could we now be in a consolidation range between the two blue PPZ levels? Maybe.
Check your Monthly charts and tell us what you see.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
What I like the IPB's to do is to give me clear indications of a halt/reversal. After the huge push down the bar being at somewhat a decent pull back does seem to be an IPB, however I would have liked it somewhere around 154 to be honest...
Won't trade it bit should be fun to watch,
Ghous.
Thanks ghous. I thought you would have liked it at the 163.00ish level near those highs (blue). I guess I better reread more of your IPB posts.
But your right, it will be fun to watch,
Jim
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Your blue area would also have been an interesting area for the IPB, I referred to the 154 as it marked a major reversal earlier and was a better "zone" for an IPb to be in...at the moment it seems to be hanging nowhere
here's a chart of how I would have liked it, worked hard on it
Ghous.
Great illustration Boss . . . . I mean . . Ghous.
Thanks,
Jim
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hey guys it is a slow saturday so i thought i would post a picture of my motivation
His name is John Michael. I was thinking I have aprox 18 years to get good at this stuff so when he goes to college but he is already almost 25 pounds so i'm thinking i better get on the ball if i want to be able to afford grocerys lol!!!
guys/gals have a great weekend, john
lol Cute kid.
Looks like he just saw that PB on the Weekly Cad/Chf. lol
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Jarroo, can I ask you to say something on first areas of trouble, using this bar as an example? It's something I'd like your opinion on.
We are all by now familiar with Jim's 'this is criticial' post, but often when I see his charts he seems to not pay much attention to the very first PPZ if the trigger bar is super close to it. It's almost as if the bar itself is "off" that PPZ.
There are a few ways to deal with this. Your style from what I can see is to have a greatly reduced stop on a pinbar, looking for a hard break, so a break even/partial...
I would think Jim pays very close attention to these near term areas of trouble like the green area on the Weekly Cad/Chf. But I understatnd your point.
The quality of this Weekly PB (Cad/Chf) is very high and a strong momentum break inherent in this type of setup will usually blow right pass this previous Highs. I, like Jim, would see that area and move to break even and/or take a partial position. Since those Highs line up with the round number, 0.9800 I will be more apt to do so. (Daily chart)
If it does hit this level and then retraces or just retraces into the formation after the break, I may look to reenter on a fib level 61.8 on the formation itself which just happens to line up with the 1.0000. Or look for Bearish PA on the 4 hour at this level. (4 hour chart)
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Come to think of it, there will be some points when i go back again and re-read the replies....
One thing I had wondered in the meantime.. how does the knife system work - just an outline if someone would - timeframes, tools used, entries, exits etc in brief..
Also, I wondered what live daily discussion there is in there about the individual markets (each fx pair, gold etc) as the charts are unfolding, what positions might be taken when the next bar closes in 30 mins - aggressive, conservative options etc -, which are actually...
You couldn't do it JamesL. LOL
I like your enthusiasm. Reading the whole thread takes a lot of time so does trading. So don't be in a hurry and take you time.
You will be amazed at how many questions will be answered once you begin getting deeper in to the thread.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks Jim. It's moot for me as my broker doesn't carry the pair but I have a demo broker that does so I can get experience.
Another point is if Price smashes through these 1st near term "troubled areas" it a good sign that the momentum of the setup is very high and setup is confirmed.
Its good one to demo as it can be apply to any setup.
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took this us/chf 4 hr short at the break of the PB, going for 1:1RR, when I got to 1.5% I moved my SL to BE, after getting hit, it (obviously ;-) dropped like a rock.
I feel very happy with the trade, cause I followed my plan exactly.
I'm thinking of next time moving my SL a few pips above/below entry point, thus allowing room to retest and continue, what do you guys think?
BTW, my new avatar is my tribute to the big guy!
Hey judith, nice trade. A classic J16 trade just like that other PB you have highlighted in white.
I also do this with the BarBreak stop loss to allow for retests.
Very nice. Hope to see more charts from you.
Can I ask what that avatar is? . . .I can't really tell. elf?
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
i want to know is dbhlc / dblhc / tbh / ib / is better indicate for reserval ??
thx regard
suma
All Price Action formations are good indications for reversal, but that's only part of the story. Location and Supporting Confluences tell the rest of the story of a high probability reversal. Having all three, not 1 of 3 or 2 of 3, but all 3 together make it happen.
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I know that Fudd's been watching this one for a while now too. I see an inside bar on my 3 hr and 4 hr charts. I will wait to see if I can get bar confirmation break at under 6700 for a short on the 4hr chart. Then set entry under 6693. 6662 is the first bar high encounter. It does have some room to move down but stay awake and use tight stops.
K.I.S.S.
Like to see that close as a 8 hour PB.
Nice plan buddy.
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I might just miss some of these early opportunities. Shhhhh....(I do have a blind entry on one pair though) I'm about to get some sleep. I'll be up in about 7 hrs to see what's shakin'! The cool thing about this market is that we will have all kinda opportunities to trade over the next 5 days! Have a great week of trading Jaroo! Always enjoy your posts and thanks so much for your charts. I haven't said that enough lately to my good friends here.
K.I.S.S.
Back at ya, Kissman.
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Location was great, monthly and weekly pivots & swing high.
There was a divergence as well.
Shape was good too.
Would hv been better if it was a red shooting star, but nonetheless,
long tailed candle was nice.
Space.. I bet it would clear PPZ 1 and T/P 1/3 @ PPZ2,
and shifted to breakeven then.
(So I made peanuts~ =P but at least I got 'paid' for taking risk)
Based on A+ (imho) Location and Shape, especially the fact a divergence was present, I thought it should have [i]at least...
I looks all good, Cyrus.
Technically a BEOB that looks like a PB. Any way . . .
Price went right where we thought it would go. Personally , once it hits that spot, I protect myself with the whole or patial position. Sometimes they run and sometimes they don't. Sometimes they stop me out and then they run. lol But that's OK too.
A better way to play the hourly or lower (imo), is to have the Daily and Weekly PPZs level (and/or heavy confluenced areas) on your hourly time frame and trade off that location with Hourly PA. You will find more potential runners and stronger setups.
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IE: If counter big timeframe trends, the probability of a home run type trade is rather small. So they become opportunistic trades and hence should t/p faster.
Will watch the bigger timeframe PPZs more from now.
Thanks!
Yes, t/p faster and protect yourself quicker because the PA setup maybe short lived.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Will watch the bigger timeframe PPZs more from now.
Thanks!
Check out this Aud/Usd 4 hour BUOB at a Daily and Weekly PPZ level.
That sucker broke with zero drawdown. ( go ahead check the 5 mintue chart) Beautiful.
What the heck was I doing at that time. lol
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Jarroo, yeah.
I was abit obsessive in finding out "why" the 1hour trade was so... pathetic..despite A+ location and shape..
I know you thought it was pathetic, I did not. May be you thought it should have gave up more pips, I did not. Once that 1st "trouble area" was hit, the setup did its job, perfectly in my book. After that its all about protecting yourself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
it's one thing to know,
another thing to believe,
and yet another thing to DO IT.
I like that Cyrus, in a way, its what we do here.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This thread has been a God send Jarroo.
It's really great to find like minded traders.
I'd like to personally shake James' hand in thanks for starting it,
but I suspect the queue number is pretty damn long.
Haha.
Its great place, for sure.
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I have said this before but will make the observation again for the newer traders here. We have a strong up trend on this pair and I wouldn't be surprised to see it move on to 1.7 despite the massive divergence that we are all observing. In the back of our minds we all are thinking that this run will not last forever and are ready to bank some pips. Folks wait for some good solid PA based on J16 lessons. Keep your views on a conservative entry based on confirmation not anticipation. The reason why I caution here is that I can feel the apprehension...
Great post Kissman.
" . . confirmation not anticipation."
What a great way to say, "wait for the break". I'm stealing that one.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I just hope that the post paid off for some. I didn't get off one single trade today. I missed a couple of set-ups but I'd rather be here than losing my precious capital. There is always tomorrow.
K.I.S.S.
The ones that waited for the break on some setups this morning are now understanding why we do that. The ones that didn't wait for the break and then their trigger. . . well . . . . lesson learned.
Here's a great post from James16 replying to a post of mine how waiting for the break had saved me from many losing trades and will continue to save me from good setups that had other ideas.
I just lurked this thread for a long, long time before joining the fray
hehe, fancy booklearnin' with little relevance to trading (in this context, anyway).
I just get a bit worried when someone posts junk like 'if you have 3:1 r:R, you will automagically hit your TP 75% of the time!' (and therefore everyone can be a breakeven - or better - trader without trying).
I dont really want to be responsible for someone losing their house because they think the internets taught them the magic MM trading secret. Even if it means...
Just having a little fun with ya, joel.
I thought you were (or wishing you were) Merlin. He knows all about that
trade modeling stuff.
Anyway, your lurking has paid off well.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
If only more people thought like that! Take good bars in good places, watch for trouble areas and let the money sort itself out.
Not that risk management isnt important - it just doesnt need to be overcomplicated like some people end up doing. My basic rule is 'dont act a fool'.
Risking 1000 pips for a 20 pip gain? Dumb.
Risking 50 for a trade that will almost certainly hit 30, probably hit 65 and possibly shoot off to 100+? Seems fine to me, even if some of the 'strict' interpretations of r:R would tell...
Nice. Cool stuff.
Thanks joel.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
GBPJPY 4hour. Shape and Location look good. Space... so so. Looks like its counter a big move up, not hoping for a homerun, just a grab
I didn't trade this one, but Price went right where we thought it would. Da ja vue. (Sorry can't post charts now)
Protect yourself when this level hits and it may have turned into a homerun. Easy to say now after it didn't.
There has been many a trade that I've said the same thing, "Hit that first obvious 1TP level and I'll put it to break even and forget about it." Only to return with it going to the moon.
No one knows where Price may go. Why not limit or eliminate our risk in the process and see where she goes.
Nice trade Cyrus.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
To me there is a little heirarchy: 1. Location (PPZ) (includes how much space/traffic is there)(Round numbers) 2. PA at the location 3. FIBS, Divergence, Trendlines, EMAs (not currently using), etc.
I need both 1. and 2. in order to bother looking at 3.
Josh
Top notch as always Josh.
( add to "This is Critical" next to computer.)
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Here is what I have learned so far about sideways market...
First of all I will mark the major PPZs. Usually I will be able to highlight small boxes of micro sideways and PPZs between them. So I know where the price is heading if a break occurs.
Now the box itself. I know from what I have learned so far that many system traders loose there money in these range areas.
The way of trading them in J16 style is usually play breakouts of inside bars (because the most common PA setup in these areas are inside bars...I think...it makes...
Bundy and Josh gave some excellent points and information on trading IBs. Also, Dale's Double Inside Bar (2IB) is definitely worth a deeper look to trade.
Inside Bar PA formations are just like any other PA formation that meet our strict criteria of Location, supporting confluences, and Location and also the Location. (as Bundy said. lol)
The trouble is with other PA formations i.e. PBs, Outside Bars, etc., we are looking for a sizable formation (for strength) to give us a more solid confirmation. Meaning, its not only that the Location is good but the large size of the "Pin Bar's looong nose" gives us more confidence in the setup.
We don't have that qualifying largeness with IBs. In fact, is probably the opposite with higher time frames, ex. I4Bs.
Although Bundy's got me thinking (as usual ) about the size of the previous bar (or "mother" bar) of the IB.
As they said, stick with more definable Price Action formations and get good with them. I'll take a big (or bigger in size inrelation to the previous bars) Pin Bars in a consolidation area over a IB any day of the week.
Jim
Also: "By the way, a completely other question: is it right to say that buob are most reliable on swing lows and beob are most reliable on swing highs?" Absolutely.
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One important note: the .8950 is a strong Daily PPZ level. Meaning that its not a minor PPZ level on the 4 hour or even on the Daily. Its a major one on a higher time frame.
Its sure is easier trading the 4 hour or even the hourly time frames knowing where these major Daily and/or Weekly PPZ levels are located.
Throw in many supporting confluences and you got yourself a goodlooking setup.
Well done sir.
Jim
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I have just posted a answer with my opinion to someone on another forum.
I planed to make it short, but while writing I felt that things are starting to sink....so I kept on.
So I thought why not posting it here as well?
I love posting here my thoughts because every time I do that, I get from you guys feedbacks with corrections on how to do things, and it helps me to improve. I am still new to this.
If someone here is new and didn't go through the 100+ first pages of these thread plus watching the videos in the guest area, I strongly advise you...
Yes, you are Ben. Reading Price like a book.
Very impressive.
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How do you know the pinbar will not be stopped by PPZ like this?
cheers,
kk
The thinking is . .You will probably be stopped and Price will reverse on you if you run in to a PPZ level like this.
So once Price breaks you protect yourself by moving to break even and/or take partial profits and limilt your risk once that PPZ is hit.
Now I know you may be a R:R guy and the PB size was 400+ pips which would have not even come close to being hit on this PB. So, you would adjust you position size to reflect your risk accordingly.
Or tighten your stop loss by placing it over the 1.4500 reducing your risk and waiting for a hard break.
The break gave up 120+ pips and Yes, the 50 pips you mention to the PPZ level would have been the time to move to break even.
(Charts to show the break)
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Thanks a lot. You understand my question and answer completely! I was wondering if expert users here have a way to know a PPZ level can be easily broken or not. With what you suggested, there is no way to realize that.
cheers,
kk007
Depending on the high quality of the setup, i.e. A++ setup, it can provide the necessary momentum strength to cut through alot of traffic and strong PPZ levels.
But the mindset you have to have is that "PPZ levels like this" will always stop and reverse on you. So you prorect your self and see if it runs through.
Sometimes it does and sometimes it does not. But when it does and then acts as the PPZ level that it is . . . . . . your looking real good as that PPZ is now your friend.
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Looking at the 4H jarroo, one then "should" have been stopped. cuz the Pb did break hard and bounced off that ppz albeit temporaily but enough to get one stopped if one had protected himself by moving the stop to BE at the ppz.
G.
Yes that is correct ghous. It would have been a break even trade or a partial profit trade. It would not have been a loss for me, because I would have been waiting for the PPZ level to act as it did.
Or made the adjustment of the full risk PB and when from there.
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My failure rate at the moment is 75% with a risk level higher than 1:1.
This time I have set my stop-loss to fib 61.8. The price open my short stop order and went all the way against me! Again, there is no mental interference or reaction issues for me in this case.
Trading PB is not as easy as it seems for me.
kk007
kk007, my friend, those PBs were not failures. They when right where they were suppose to go.
Secondly, get off the hourly. Stay with the Daily and Weekly time frames. That's where the best and biggest moves come from.
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Yes. Good points. I will remember all these you mentioned here. Let me keep improving myself. Perhaps, I should may place my sell stop 2 pip lower to make sure the PPZ broken (perhaps too risky to do this?)
cheers,
kk
You do know "This is Critical" from James16, correct?
James16:
THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
Notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
Know that if we trade into it we had better be prepared for a quick reversal that could give us a loss if we are not prepared.
if we know its there, we have several choices.
1. get out when it gets there for a small profit.
2. take a small partial profit and move the remainder to BE.
3. stay in with your total position hoping for a break and move your stop to BE.
4. Dont enter until the level has been broken."
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I know "THIS IS CRITICAL", but I am not sure if the PPZ in my last trade is strong or not that strong. Again, there is no way for me to lock any profit - it just triggered my order and went to the stop-loss all the way.
Cheers,
kk
We have to back up a bit here kk007.
Let's first place our PPZ levels on the Weekly and Daily time frames and see if we can line them up with some round numbers. And see what we got.
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Thanks. So you are suggesting that 95.00 is a key level here. Nevertheless, my short was slightly below that level @ 94.94.
kk
Yes, it was. Now was it at a swing high or low on the hourly time frame inrelation to the previous bars (candles)? No.
We look for PBs, outside bars, etc. at swing high/lows at strong locations i.e. Daily/Weekly PPZ levels.
Edit: Forgot to show the divergence on the hourly BUOB (in green). The more confluences you have the better. Especially on the lower time frames like the hourly.
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As you can see lower time frames like the hourly and 4 hour need higher time locations (PPZ levels) and supporting confluences (the more the better) to give the setup a higher probability of success.
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just wondering if you took this trade? you highlighted it as a pin bar but isnt it the wrong way around to take the bullish movement seems there was a big rejection down..??
thanks
Start with the kk007 post below and follow from there.
I was pointing out how that PB, although nice looking in shape, was not the ones we look for due to its Location and zero supporting confluences.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kk007
Hi James,
It would be great if you can answer this. How do you know the pinbar will not be stopped by PPZ like this? I am almost always stopped by them, and cannot make profit with Pinbars.
cheers,
kk
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And hang on,
I have something to share...
Approx a year ago from today, I felt something very very close to what Kk just posted above...
This was a time when I had just begun my journey here with the J16 staff...
I had lost 6 consecutive pin bar trades on a live account,
I have a habit of "free writing" whenever I am not feeling normal, I.e when I am super happy or super sad or super exuberant or just feeling like superman.
This is what I wrote on...
Wow. Nice ghous.
I never posted mine either. Yours is alot cleaner then mine. lol
I think we all go through this one time or another. Some leave the business forever, while others Persevere.
Glad you regrouped and perservered , ghous.
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I then added Fibs into the picture to get confluence
So does it mean that if a PA forms at these 3 levels, it may be a good place to take the trade (Of course depending on what PA happens) but if a PA forms at 1.0900 as there is no confluence, I should not take the trade?
I keep getting confused about Confluence
If we see a PA happening only at a PPZ with no Fibs confluence, can we take the trade?
What if we see a PA happening at a Fibs level with no PPZ, can we take the trade?
What + What = Confluence?
I understand from...
You asked some good questions tradertt. I can't post charts right now. I'll try to answer them later tonight.
Concerning the BEOBs, let me borrow your 4 hour BEOB on the Gbp/Jpy chart and ghous's BEOB on the Weekly Cad/Jpy.
Notice that ghous BEOB is at a Swing High compared to the previous candles. The BEOB happened at the peak or highest point of the swing high. Very Nice.
Now notice that on your 4 hour BEOB on the Gby/Jpy is not at the peak or highest point. Its in a consolidation area of the previous candles.
Yes, the consolidation is at swing high, but the BEOB is not.
Don't get me wrong, being a BEOB within a consoldation area that is at a swing high has potential. But we like looking for the BEOB that are at the highest peak of the swing high relative to the previous candles.
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I wouldn't personally trade this based on the bar size, but let me just offer the other perspective. We have clear divergence, so we could be in for a temporary retrace(marked area going into 1.1). Again for me if this was a bigger outside bar then it would get my interest much more. But I say it time and time again, for me Size does matter(think pitbull analogy from James16).
Best
Mike
The potential Weekly PB on the Cad looks more like a chihuahua.
I like the location, I'll probably play a tight break.
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Interesting. Not as simple as I had thought. Many thanks for your input!
kk
I like that the top of this potential poodle PB is that the 1.0800 lines up with some past flips (PPZs) and a strong break could reach the 1st TP marked in blue and/or the 1.1000.
Again the location will have to be that main factor to this potential trade. The ideal situation would be what Mike and Bundy have said, great location with a nice Big Pitbull Pin Bar.
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by itself this is just a beob. The bars itself are just triggers. Looking at this beob on its own it is an easy pass trade. It is in a very sideways market(choppy). Now if we add some basic concepts such as the possible tip off of the breakout + divergence and the recent top we seem to put in then MAYBE this becomes a playable trade. But do you see how you have to formulate the pieces to decide. If you just want to trade the bars by themselves you are going to run into trouble b/c they pop up left and right.
Jaroos post above sums it up much...
Where do you think I learn this from, . . . Mike?
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DBHLC, like BEOB, are best traded at swing highs. (at a strong PPZ level with supporting confluences.) This is the ideal situation.
A more riskier situation for a DBHLC (or BEOB) is if you think that we are in a downward trend and that this PA formation can be used as a trend continuation pattern. Again we need the same criteria for PA continuation : location and supporting confluences. Do we have any here that you see?
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not quite too sure how to answer you jarroo but I tried it out in the picture attached
Very good. The 160.50 is a PPZ level on the 4 hour time frame which is good. If that 160.50 was a PPZ level on the Daily and/or Weekly even better. 160.00 does show as a PPZ level on the Monthly back in 2000, good, but I would like more near term strength.
160.00 is a strong round number and closing below that is a good sign.
MACD divergence on the Daily, good.
It has potential.
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not quite too sure how to answer you jarroo but I tried it out in the picture attached
Let me just add an important note, tradertt. We have to prove to ourselves that we can be successful with only the Ideal Situations as James16 decribes on the 1st post. You will find that the A+ trades are easier to trade once you practice through demoing them over and over again.
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Yeah I wonder why? Cuz as far as I remember I was filled with spite for each and every poster here the seniors specially, you were just lucky I guess lol
I don't think my early frustrations were at Mike either. How can you get mad a guy like Mike? lol
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Thank you. I got a question though, it seems that most of the time we are talking about reversal trades PA. Is there any trend continuation PA and how do we gauge confluence etc? Is it like the DBHLC where it is a trend continuation?
2nd question: If price makes a new high, retraces and at the swing low forms a BUOB, is that valid as a Swing low location for a BUOB to form? Hope you understand what I mean.
Its that same PA formation like the DBHLC. The confluences are that same with PA continuation but the setup itself is riskier.
2) Yes, to continue with your 4 hour Gby/Jpy chart, the fib retracements marked with an "x" would be the nice swing lows for Bullish PA like a PB or BUOB. We would be at a PPZ level with Fib and 150 ema (blue) confluence.
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I follow guys like Thomas Sowell, Walter Williams and the late, great, Milton Friedman. Walter Williams is my favorite economist. These guys have taught me a lot about how to operate.
Me too!! I love Friedman.
You gotta love Sowell's Random Thoughts on a Passing Scene.
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I don't know if anyone else took this, but here is another trade I took. This is already my second trade this month, which is unusual because I usually only take between 1 to 4 daily trades per month.
GBP/CHF daily DBHLC. Price broke hard and hit the first trouble area and reversed. See chart.
Sorry for the blurry chart, I'm still working on a fix.
Scott
Great post Scott.
You just move away from the 95% on the unsuccessful traders (don't like the word "losers") into the 5% of successful traders.
It sure looks like a simple, common sense way to manage a trade but as you said in your earlier days (mine too) it sometimes not as easy as it should be. Meaning, "Is really that simple? " . . . Yes it is.
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Hey guys (: just want to share my thoughts about the GBPUSD.
1.7000 is a very strong PPZ. Look at the picture.
Look on the weekly...there is a pin bar forming. Well that pin bar is nice, but not an A pin bar IMO cause it's nose is quite short if we compare it to the surrounding bars...ummm...
The thing that jumped out at me though was that 50.00 ret level that Jim always mentioned....
Quote:
Originally Posted by phpscott
GBP/USD weekly PB looks like a poodle to me. I almost fell off my chair laughing when James posted the poodle versus pitbull chart. I will pass on this one myself.
Scott
Hey guys I respect your pickiness. But I put this one in the "A" catagory.
Nice work on showing the Pros:
Strong Monthly PPZ level; 1.7000.
Fib 61.8% confluence.
50% retracement confluence.
Off recent Highs.
Sure the size could be bigger but its closely equal to or greater then the size of recent bars in the last few weeks.
Top of consolidation of the recent weeks.
This last one is where it gets a little tricky. The traffic in the consolidation. How strong the break is (momentum) and how Price behaves at these levels in blue (zoomed in chart) will be key for me.
I do like this one.
Jim
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It hasn't really formed off the highs but rather it's over and above the highs,
But given it's off 1.7 it might still be very much playable...
just suggesting that one of the pros might in reality be a hidden con...
G.
That's the beauty of this potential trade. If Price breaks below the PB, the 1.6700-1.6600ish area will now be a nicely formed Weekly PPZ level i.e. PPZ level as your friend (red lines). I am very aware of the potential up move Price can likely move (blue lines). But the added confluences supporting this PB gives me the green flag.
Thanks ghous.
Jim
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the most attractive opportunity IMO, with every key moment, confluence of ppz and round number, divergence, deep retracement (50-61%), and enough space for management.
the only negative moment i can see is that its counter trend
lets see how it plays
EDIT: NZD/USD error in headline
Very Nice datogio. I'll be watching this.
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I want to know how you would manage the trade like the cadchf weekly pin bar trade since it seems it is an A+ setup but the big concern is the 0.9800 level ppz.
The price did a quick touch a rush back to 1.0 level. If we enter at the break of the weekly pin bar, we will endure a big draw down.
I want to know on you style of "Tight trade management" when price reaching the important ppz, how would you set your stoploss on this kind of trade when price is reaching 0.9800 level??
Even we set the stoploss at the "The bar breaks"...
Yes I did have this one lined up for a potential trade earlier this week as you can see from my 1st charts, I was well prepared for the 1st "trouble area" at .9800.
Since it didn't break prior to the NFP, I didn't place my order. I may trade PA early on the NFP morning during the London session but not during the release. That 4 hour PB Gbp/Jpy during the NFP looked very pretty, but I didn't play it. Not within my rules.
But the plan would have remained the same. Price hits .9800, move to break even, let it ride.
EURGBP was not going as expected, so i killed it for -72pips. if the bar on friday was neutral to even a little bullish i would let it run, but instead it formed a bearish bar and even closed at the low of the day. wondering if how the PA old timers would manage this differently?
in retro, EURJPY didn't trigger, and CADJPY would' triggered and stopped out. so got lucky on this one.
EurGbp BUOB or DBLHC was going as expected until the NFP came out. I, like James16 and others, don't care about News. But the NFP and Interest Rate Anouncements I stay out. Especially if PA at the release is going to be the break.
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Just assume you enter cadchf trade and getout at break even and the high of the pin still havn't been breached yet.
Will you still prefer to enter if there is a chance you see a 4h or 1h PA to go short again?
Or
You would prefer place another short entry at the low of the last break? If you can't find any good PA on 4h and 1h. (Not sure if this is a good method to reenter a a trade)
Thanks!
PippingM
Since Price made a weak break of the PB to the 1st minor area of trouble ( the .9800) and then rose to the stronger PPZ level, 1.0000. This tells me many things, . . . could this be a retest to the 1.000 then down we go or weak PB break and up we go after we break and retest the 1.0000? I'm thinking more of the latter, but I will wait for a strong setup around the 1.0000 for a possible short or long.
The Daily is showing a BUOB that is above the 1.000, although BUOB are best played at Swing Lows. A strong break BUOB and then retest of the 1.0000 could be a nice PA continuation play.
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In addition, I have just noticed a kinda B pin bar on the monthly (even a natural bar...but the location is good).
Ben
As you know we wait for the close of the Bar (Candle) to determine if a PA formation is formed. That "Monthly Pin" is not even near to closing and should be ignored until the end of the month.
Although the Weekly Bearish PB's size and traffic that Price is running into is not ideal, it has pontential. imo
I agree that the 1.66-1.65 area are the key to either move to break even if it breaks or wait for bearish PA below and/or off these levels.
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I am not posting so often, but it doesn't mean I am not following thread - thanks for all shared ideas and screens . As I saw, few of you were watching GBPUSD on weekly, when at friday nice PIN was made. I started to build my position around @6660, with leaving SL lvl @6740. Targets are mainly previous PPZ, rounds and fibo lvls. Lets see how real it comes in few days.
Looking good.
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what a nice break on cable, but I'm break even unfortunately.
happy trading for those who still in
That was quick datogio, not saying it was wrong to do in any way. But maybe give up a little leeway, it only drew down a couple of pips after the break.
Anyway, nice job.
Jim
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Currently +90 pips and stop moved to BE.
I have zoomed into the 4H to fined the next point to trail my stop to.
I fully expect the 1.64500 area to act as support now. If price breaks through, it will most likely act as resistance....so I will move my stop above it.
Ben
Pretty easy stuff, right Ben?
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Ohh sure it is now! I am beginning to think that after I know the material, the only thing thatcan kill me is not being patient and pick enough...or having a bad MM.
Ben
James16, Mike, Bundy and many others will say the same thing; the only thing that will stop you now is . . . . you.
Now don't get cocky . . .just kidding. lol
Nice trade Ben.
Jim
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mjotic, I myself am new (also to forex in general).
If I can give an advice, it is to take your time and read through this thread from page one. I have read till page 135 and I got so much out of it personally. Pay most attention to james16 posts, read each of them carefully. Then go and watch the videos at the guest area of the group's website.
That was benefiting for me at least.
For your question, there are several price action setups.
You would like to look for bullish setups for going long: dblhc, buob, pin bar with a nose pointing south.
Or...
Great Post Ben. Wow.
Add more supporting confluences to thoses patterns at PPZ levels and it will give stength to your setup.
Your the Man.
Jim
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thanks jarro. i stay out of news also. i read you, but not sure i understand you(well maybe if we're talking abt intraday trading, then the relation btw hourly PA break and news release is more applicable). but this is a daily trade, are you saying we should be extra careful or maybe even not taking PA formed on the day of NFP? can you clarify?
It there was a strong setup on Thursday before the NFP on Friday morning, I will look for a break during the London session. As the NFP approaches and Thursday's setup has not broken yet I will cancell the order. I will not play the break of the setup off the NFP release.
If a setup was formed after the NFP, I will look to trade that on Monday.
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And your PB did not fail. It broke the bottom - went ot the bar highs, and reversed. Happens frequently that way against the trend.
Don't quite understand what you mean
Hey tradertt.
When a high quality PA setup presents itself, what makes it "high quality"?
There's Location (PPZ Levels), supporting confluences (Swing highs/lows at fib levels, 50% retrace levels, etc. )
Another "high quality" characteristic that a setup must have, that Mike and others talk about all the time, is "Low Traffic". What is traffic? Its the previous Highs and Lows that the setup is trading into. The Highs and Lows by themselves or meeting together formimg S/R levels or PPZ levels. We don't want to be trading into many of these levels, the fewer . . . the better.
Notice that the green PB had less traffic then the blue PB. Thus a better result. This is another reason why we like PA at these swing Highs and Lows : Less Traffic.
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When a high quality PA setup presents itself, what makes it "high quality"?
There's Location (PPZ Levels), supporting confluences, (Swing highs/lows at fib levels, 50% retrace levels, etc. )
Another "high quality" characteristic that a setup must have, that Mike and others talk about all the time, is "Low Traffic". What is traffic? Its the previous Highs and Lows that the setup is trading into. The Highs and Lows meet together formimg S/R levels or PPZ levels. We don't want to be trading into many of these levels,...
This Traffic of a setup is not only what we view when considering what we are trading into, but it also shows us where a potential Price Target could be reached. Or where Price will most likely reverse on us when reached. This is more to your point of what SP and LVG was getting at . . . on why your PB reversed.
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I understand it better now. If we are trading short after a recent strong run up or trading long after a recent strong run down, we will be having space below and above respectively.
1. What we do not want is to be trading into price in a consolidation as there will be many highs and lows?
2. But could you clarify a little bit more on traffic as there are SO MANY bars that we can draw the high and low points off
1. Yes that's it. We don't want our setup trading into a mess of highs and lows of the previous candles.
2. You answered your question. lol If there are SO MANY bars that we can draw high and lows from that means there is TOO MUCH traffic and we pass on the trade.
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This is a very important point to take note of TT. You are at the early stages, so all these questions and what not are perfectly expected. But to save you time, I would first suggest to get ride of that PA indicator. I think it is going to distract you from finding the really GOOD bars, vs just what might qualify as a bar. Many of those BEOBs you posted like the usd/chf are very neutral bars. They don't really give us much info. We can't forget that we are trying to get an idea of where price may go. This comes back to the post James made about...
Thanks Mike.
I have great teachers in you and Jim.
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Thought I'd throw up some sideways market action for you guys... Charts a bit of a mess but readable I hope Not convinced it will make it to my TP but a free trade none the less. Hopefully stays good for a few pips.
Nice Pin
PPZ
365 EMA
Divergence
Trendline
Just thought I'd tell you guys how I see it
Very nice Mark. Who said Price is unpredictable. Looks like it went right where we thought it would and reversed and then to the next place we thought it would. ( I think that's a run on sentence. lol )
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Your PB did have me biting my fingernails....But I learned from my AUDCAD: If I traded on a weekly chart, I should stick to my guns according to the weekly chart (I got out of AUDCAD with +30 pips....it was taking sooooo long to break...and it broke...my fault for getting out early and for not sticking to my trade plan).
So anyways, I'm glad I stood firm with the USDCAD...I used the confluence of finance minister Flaherty's warning about intervention plus a mediocre Bullish PB on the weekly chart....if CAD can penetrate 1.0978, it has a chance...
Pop goes the weasel. lol
I knew that Cad poodle PB had some strength. The Power of a great location. I've taken some of the table at the 1.0920 area and letting it ride. Now let's get some supportive strength at the 1.1000.
Sorry I can't post charts now
Nice one Mr. Bates.
Jim
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Here is an example of an inside bar at a swing high, off heavy resistance....looks good IMO. But I did not take it because of the heavy support the bar lows below created. Waiting for another A setup
GBPJPY Daily.
Take care
Ben
Hey Ben. Just been reading some of your recent post . . . good stuff brother.
Lately I have been playing the Double Inside Bars as decribed by Dale on this thread and also some I4Bs or I10+Bs. I like more definable PA at these areas instead of IBs. But they are very tradable at the right location and confluence.
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LOL. Was so tired this morning so decided to go back to bed.. Woke up 4 hours later and saw my TP was hit just above 1.08! If only trading was always that simple
It is that simple.
Nice one Mark. It just takes a lot of time, hard work and practise to make it that simple. (does that make sense. lol)
It does get simpler over time.
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Update
Well, the pin did break and went to where you'd expect. Stopped out at BE+1
PinBar is technically still in play, but going to stand aside, for now. Bias is still long.
Very nice LVG. Very smart.
I love when Price does what it suppose to do. When it doesn't, something else must be going on.
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:
1) Traffic (Meaning are we trading into a messy area with lots of highs and lows as taught by Jarroo ie SPACE)
2) Timing - Meaning that if the PA occurs during the mid day of the USA Session, I will not take it cause there isn't much volatility.
Anything I am missing or am wrong? If so, please add on to this post.
It seems there are more and more things to look out for and it may be bringing me to Paralysis
P.S. Thanks to everyone replying to my previous posts. I have glanced through them but had a busy day so no time to delve deeply...
Hang on there tradertt. The "Space" we look for may be explained by me, but its taught by and learned from MIKE (mbqb11).
All that I know and all the successsfull trades that I have had, would not exist if it wasn't for Mike and Jim (James16). Period. Exclamation Point.
Their posts and videos (free ones seen here in the guests section : http://www.james16group.us/ ) should be studied every day.
Have you seen the free videos, tradertt? If you have, how many times have you viewed them? twice, 5 times . . . I suggest at least 12 times . . . . maybe that's just me.
Check them out tradertt. You will be glad you did.
Jim
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a chart is a chart and i used to post other things all the time.
maybe i will get back to it from time to time.
Yeah, a chart is just a chart.
But being able to read and understand a chart correctly and being profitable is a whole other can of wax.
Meaning: Any idiot can drive a car on a road, but being guided on the right road, on the right path and not falling off a cliff is what you do for us big guy. And in this business, that is Priceless.
Jim
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(I figure a stock chart is okay... i mean, if the pf can have a stock section and we can throw up charts of coffee and sugar in here, it cant hurt *too* much...)
I'm not Jim (by a longshot, lol) but I do use some of his methods to trade stocks. Well, kinda - I use them to get a good entry into equities which I have a longterm fundamental interest
I am primarily a fundamental equity investor - 70% of my money is in stocks (20% fixed income, 10% equity options). I didnt really care about its day to day value.
But after...
Great post as always joel.
All charts are welcomed here. That's the beauty of the J16 way.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Good job I've listen to my internal feeling about it and had it confirmed by more experienced traders and by the rules of PA- Thank you StoragePro
Pin was a poodle and was broken easily. CAD?JPY went down further and this bar was like a bit of indecision. This stuff is realy working.
Is still hell of a lot for me to learn and practise. Hope you all guys here will have enough patience. Going through the thread is basic and still have some more to go
Waiting for the break saved you as well.
lol Take all the time you need, friend. We'll be here.
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Gorgeous pins. "Real Man" pins as the big fella likes to call them now. lol
A pity they will have to be managed carefully. (The reasons you've marked on your charts. ...yellow lines.) They look awesome otherwise. Awesome enough to probably push past those trouble spots.
Every now and then I see some beauties like these, but location or previous price action leading into them shouts "Be Careful!!". It's ones like this a lot of people take and it's hard to argue against them, but at the same time I'll be here going "DAMN,...
Darn it, Bundy. Pull the trigger for Pete's sake. You know those Pit Bulls can cut through traffic and not get hit by a car.
Eur/Jpy was a no brainer. Ditto with the Yen. You can redeem yourself on the Gbp/Jpy.
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I got in on E/J. lol ...Thinking 135.80 push for target.. ...Didn't like G/J.
...that was stupid of me. I was flicking back between calculating my trade and trying to post, while also making sure I was entering on the right account too. lol
...A bit rusty. Kind of had a month off. Still not planning to be back at it for a couple of weeks yet either. lol
Glad you took that the way it was meant to be taken. lol
Forgot to put some smiley faces on that post.
Although it did feel good to give some tough love to someone that I've learned so much from.
Jim
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I knew your intent bud. Need the tough love too. Feeling a bit trigger happy after time out, and probably over compensating for it.
I only took that E/J one after fussing around calculating various stop points, targets and entry conditions while writing that post. Wanted to make it work within my 'fussiness' parameters tonight. lol
I'm heading back out of this. Too much work on the race car in the morning to be doing this. ....back to the "Picture Tennis" ( ), then bed.
The E/J was clearly the best of the three. It's a good three charts to study.
I know there's such a thing as not being picky enough . . .trust me on that. lol. But is there such a thing as being too picky? I don't think so.
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I saw this post just before I went to bed.
I was thinking to myself why not have some fun? lol. I have placed a few pending orders. Of course on demo...I needed to place TP and SL orders without managing the trades.
Ben
The IB on the E/J:
Yeah, that's a classic Dale Double Inside Bar, as I mentioned earlier.
Dale makes a killing off those on the 4 hour chart. He has posted them here and on other threads. Low risk, high gain potential.
Dale would be proud of that one.
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Actually i don't post here but what happened was that i was looking at those chart's for 5-6 hours and i missed the entries (Double bottom's on 1H macd) on both GJ and EJ missing 30 pips each but i entered.
after the entry price came and i started averaging down and also get afraid so i thought "Hmmmm it's a pin bar so why don't i get some advise from the J16 gurus."
I think the trading gods are trying to tell you something nasir. You may want to stay awhile and learn some of the basics. I'm sure it will help you on how your currently trading.
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hey jaroo,
took a similar setup on aj, :
what i liked more about this setup is that both IBs are under ema60 and the TL.my risk on this one was very low, as i don't take double IBs that often.
guess where i placed my tp
Very nice nick. They don't occur very often so many pairs need to be watched, just like the A+ trade.
As Dale has mentioned, strong PPZ levels and confluences need to be take into account. But trading them with the short term trend seems more important. Also the don't have to be at swing High or Lows.
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Yes I have noticed that. It was one of my trades that I took before I went to bed. I was not awake to manage the trade, so I placed a TP order at the first trouble area. Made 42 pips.....I see it took off much further though
Anyway...Dale's "double inside bar" means an inside bar which the previous bar is an inside bar as well? An inside bar within an inside bar?
Thanks
Ben
Yes, that's it Ben.
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...Yeah , I seen those earlier in the day on a few of the charts, but missed them. The Eur/Aud was awesome. Went too fast for me though. Went away for half an hour to do some welding, got back in time , but turned away for a minute with the order screen open, then next thing you know BAMMM!! Off and runnin'!!
...A long time ago I'd have jumped aboard later anyway. Now I do my best to forget about them and move on. ( No seriously! I have moved on! ....CRAPPPP!!!!!!! ...)
That's it. I'm really heading...
see ya later Bundy.
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yes, i think they might be even better if they occur somewhere in the middle of a move, not at a swing high/low, since they're mostly continuation, not reversal setups, as you said.
Good point nick. I believe that's true as well. You gotta love their inherent low risk quality.
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I can't remember who said it but it went something like this: losing is what traders do while they wait for the great A++ set-ups... oooh so true. nothing last week only for a hatful of points to come along this week... does a pin ever look better than this?
I believe that one is from Mike, but he said it in a different way. lol
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Mike says that days like this come.... we all believe him ... I know it to be true from backtesting.... so why oh why do I ever bother to trade the b- bars?
lesson for tomorrow= believe mike and jim!
Its probably the best and hardest lesson to learn.
But once its embraced. Look out!
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hi all,
posting some of my old charts, from the beginning of july.
i didn't take all of these setups, only the best-looking ones(those with a lot of space).
i hope, it might help some of you to see the difference between A+ and the average setups and i think it also shows that there are plenty of signals every day.
Wow, how sweet are those charts.
Very nice, nick.
Thanks.
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I know that in time you will be able to tell the ones that are good from the bad.
Keep going, and keep the lot size small while your learning.
Best regards
Dale
Hey Dale. I got a heads up on 4 hour Double IB on the Usd/Cad. (Thanks Mike W). I've been away for a few days so I missed it.
Any thoughts on this one Dale?
Double IB on the 4 hour Usd/Cad
Long term trend is down . . . short term trend is up. My initial thinking would be go for the break on the upside, which is with the short term up trend.
But the BEOB on the Daily is a strong quality PA setup. So my bias (if you will) is to go with the strong PA setup on a higher time frame. Which as it turns out , the Double IB went in that direction.
If that BEOB on the Daily was not there or was weak, I would have gone with the short term upward trend break of the Double IB.
Jim
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The daily chart had the 365 EMA running right through it - talk about a brick wall of support...
Would love to hear some comments/advice - thanks
I tend to manage my Weekly PA on the Daily time frame.
Took the 1st TP half at 1.6450 (189 pips) and the 2nd half stop loss stayed at the same level when the Weekly PB broke . . . above the BarBreak (75 pips above the break).
The 365 ema (black on my chart) and the 1.6400 PPZ level combined made that a brick wall. imo
When strong PPZ levels become confluenced with long term MAs (365 ema, 200 ema, 150 ema), Fib levels( 61.8, 38.2 ) and the 50% retracement level or all three together, they become a strong location to find PA setups, Take Profits and places to hide your stop losses.
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When strong PPZ levels become confluenced with long term MAs (365 ema, 200 ema, 150 ema), Fib levels( 61.8, 38.2 ) and the 50% retracement level or all three together, they become a strong location to find PA setups, Take Profits and places to hide your stop losses.
Why this 4 hour PB on the Eur/Jpy was an A+ setup.
135.00 Round Number which is a Daily PPZ level.
At a swing Low with space.
Confluenced with the 4 hour 150 ema (blue) and 61.8 Fib level.
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My first thought when I saw the chart took me way back to a when I first started. There is a Gentleman who's first name is Ken, Anyway he would often say, "The market went to far to fast".
It also looks like the market is giving a mixed message, so I would wait for a cleaner trade.
Also....
Yes. That's what I was thinking also. So clear structure or defineable form is important to a tradable Double IB. Where have I heard that before. lol
Thanks Dale.
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Seriously, when a good one comes along you'll know and say to youself:- "DAMN, I shouldn't have traded last week at all. All those crappy charts and I thought I was just crap at this! Look at how easy the good ones are when they finally come along! It's obvious where to get in , where to get out, where to put my stop. Derrrr!"
Great post Bundy.
Man, have I said that before. lol
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AUDUSD 4hour Pinbar off PPZ.
Target PPZ @ the bottom + wPivot
Size looks Ok. Off recent Highs, good. But the traffic is like 5:00 PM on a Friday at the start of the Labor Day weekend. Its just too much. We need space to the left of our setup to give it room to run. If only for a short distance.
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Size looks Ok. Off recent Highs, good. But the traffic is like 5:00 PM on a Friday at the start of the Labor Day weekend. Its just too much. We need space to the left of our setup to give it room to run. If only for a short distance.
Here's the 4 hour Eur/Jpy from a few posts ago, upside down and inverted. This is the open space and confluences we're looking for at a swing High.
Was aiming to enter on limits @ 50% of the pinbar, to create some space. Suppose there's little point doing that if it's not an A grade trade.
Thanks again Jarroo =)
Yes. The A trades can give more opportunities for entry, especially after the break. Be it aggressive or conservative entries, A trades make it easy to skin a cat.
The true A+ trades usually break hard and run to the moon. imo
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i agree with jaroo in regards to there not being that much space in this setup as shown clearly in his chart. also not much confluence.
also i would recommend that it is easier to base your analysis of one time frame.
i have been using the j16 material for ove 6 mths now and have found it easier to just trade what i see on one time frame and manage the trade on that time frame.
just my view.
Its a good point faizal, sticking to the time frame your trading. But it is important to know where higher time frame PPZ levels are located and also if a higher time frame PA is in agreement with your current time frame.
Meaning, you don't want to trade a 4 hour Bullish PB into a Weekly BEOB, unless you realize that the 4 hour PB Bullish maybe short lived.
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I agree with faizel, not a big fan of the Fib 23%.
The size looks good.
I like the confluence of the 150 ema and 1.6550 PPZ level.
Not at a swing low.
1.6700 TP1 is a bit aggressive, I like the 1.6650.
Break of the 1.6600, instead of the PB itself. (refer to James16's "This is Critical")
It has pontential, but I would pass because there are better setups just around the corner.
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I had been falling into the trap at looking for PA and then curve fitting my levels to convince my self that the trade was a goer.
I think this is driven by the amount of pairs I am trying to trade, all the crosses etc.
I am leaning towards just trading the majors. Marking up the levels of confluence on weekly daily then setting alerts. That way I can even look for entries in the 4 hr, when they come rather than checking 30 charts every 4 hours.
Mark
Smart plan. You can always move up to more charts when you see fit and comfortable to do so.
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Your getting there... & what i put here is not aimed at you but all traders going through the seemingly endless cycle of breakeven...
I'm going to take this opportunity to share something that made the difference for me when trying to become consistantly profitable.. let me say first, that it did not happen overnight. It took 'some' time & a deep struggle internally to accept what works & what doesnt.
NOTE.. I am still working on getting better all the time as I think all traders do.. To streamline & make trading as efficient as possible..
First....
Great post Jeff.
Page 1 material easily.
A must read for all traders.
Nice.
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Meaning I use the Weekly and Daily PPZ levels as the foundation where all Price Action setups develop. Which can ocurr on, obviously, on the Weekly and Daily charts but also on the 2 Day, 8 hour, 4 hour time frames.
I then use the time frame that a the PA setup was presented and use that time frame's PPZ levels as Price targets and/or trade managnent (stop losses).
For example the 4 PB on the Eur/Jpy on 8-12-09.
The Weekly and Daily PPZ levels are pretty obvious as shown on my charts. You don't have to be too technical or draw too many. You'll notice that many are at round numbers so they are easy to see. ( Hey look, a 2 Week PB in blue on the Weekly, Nice. )
On the 4 hour time frame a nice structurely sound PB forms at the Weekly and Daily PPZ level at 135.00 round number. All lower time frame PA setups should be at these Weekly/Daily PPZ levels. imo.
This 4 hour PB at this location alone, would be enough for most, but I then look for other supporting confluences to see if it has even more strength. Which it did, they were 150 ema, fib level 61.8 from the last swing low, no MACD diverence. At a swing Low with good space.
The minor PPZ level, Highs and Lows (in blue) on the 4 time frame I will use as TPs and stop loss placements.
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One for Ghous or anyone else. IS this a valid IPB? It looks like reasonable location, however it could simply be an IB? It is on barclays so not really valid for FX but more looking at location etc.
Does the fact that its an IB help or should it be more like a PB, ie stretching out further above?
There seems to be something similar on the FTSE though not as well defined.
That would be just an Inside Bar. Nice Bullish candle before it, almost a BUOB or Triple Bar Low Higher Close. Maybe building momentum to continue the short term uptrend. Or stalling out to drop and continue the longer term down trend.
Yes nice location.
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Thank you for explaining. I understand what you are talking about.
1. Can I assume regarding PPZs alone, If I am trading the H4, Daily and Weekly Time frames, we can base it off the Daily and weekly PPZs and we need not use the H4 PPZs as a guide for PA. But of course, when the PA is formed, we have to analyse the first trouble area and see if there is enough space for it to run to allow us to take profit and move stop to BE.
2. If we trade on the H1 timeframe, which I am not doing currently, is it also good enough just to use the Daily and...
1. Yes, disregard PA setups off the 4 hour PPZ levels and use the Daily/ Weekly PPZ levels for 4 hour PA.
2. You can use Hourly PA setups off a 4 hour PPZ level, but your setup will be stronger and have more chances to go to the moon when the Hourly PA is off the Daily/Weekly PPZ levels.
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NZD/USD daily pin bar off highs. Daily and weekly bearish divergence.
Nice PB. Not feeling the Weekly divergence on MACD, maybe its on another study. Hard to say without a chart.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkashifk
Hi,
after reading alot of times reading the thread, this is what I got....i think that the price is going to go down but would like to know what all the gurus think
Happy trading
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkashifk
Another one...i think that this is yelling about the price action, but since i am still trying to learn how to crawl, would like to see the comments from the gurus. happy trading
We are not really "gurus", we just been studying and practising Price Action, the J16 way, a little longer then most people. You will soon realize that after some time and practise with this method of trading that you can be a "guru" yourself.
The area you have indicated on your charts as "Confluence" is actually a PPZ level. Confluence is when we have a PPZ level lining up with or coming together with another technical analysis tool., i.e. long term MAs, Fib levels, 50% retracement levels, MACD divergence, etc.
My chart shows the confluence of a PPZ level with the 365 ema (in black). Blue areas are my Price Targets on the Pin Bar.
Edit : The "PPZ Level" on my chart actualy lines up (pretty close) with the 50% retracement level on the Weekly. So this level has confluence: PPZ level and 50% retracement.
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Perhaps - Look at he monthly. Areas of consolidation in the past turn into area of consolidation in the future very frequently. I personally like ranges. Nice and safe place to play.
I like where we are with this pair. It is quite a nice pair. And I know my pairs.
Drop baby, drop like a rock.
A good place as any to repeat itself again.
Your lips to Price's ear, SP. lol
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And yet another daily IB on the eur/usd. This one is from 8-11-2009.
You'll notice this IB broke bottomside right? Go to the lower timeframe (4hr). That IS the lower timeframe.
The range from 8-11 is noted by the blue box. DID WE SEE A CLOSE BELOW? A Close, not a break. NO. Why trade it when it's going right back into the range? Then what happens? It breaks topside. Did we see a close after it broke topside ABOVE the range? Yup.
You could enter on a retracement back to the range or right there. Either way, it went right back to the resistance...
Hey mike w. Quick question on the IB "Close". Is it just the "Close" of a candle (blue) or is it what ghous had illustrated as the close of the entire candle (green), meaning the "Open and Close" of the candle? (purple are the false breaks).
Thanks,
Jim
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Spot on brother. When I see the close of the candle below or above, that signals the actual break for me. I've worked my way through quite a bit of these already and when you wait for that, you are effectively eliminating quite a LARGE amount of the losers you would have taken on.
I'm thinking of posting up a closed journal with these examples on them from the year 2004 onward for multiple pairs. I'll be starting with the gbp/usd. This will be to illustrate how important it is to wait for that initial candle close underneath the consolidating...
Thanks mike. I'm a big believer of establishing a confirmation of any setup. And what you have here is one that makes a lot of sense. There's that "Simplicty" thing coming in again.
Jim
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No thank you my man! You showed me the light back in '07 about waiting for confirmation. I've done my fair share of not waiting for that confirmation and BOOM, paid the price for it. After the talks we've had time and time again, you made it as clear as crystal. There are few people who have affected my career as positively as yourself.
Back at you Mike. One only needs to read all of your posts as well, to see the Gems you've produced. It sounds like you got another one in the works.
Positive talks that we have had is not a one way street my friend. I got much needed lifts from them myself, if not more.
Jim
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where would be Your Stop Loss for this Bearish outside bar pattern ?
Thanks.
B,
Tom
The Aud/Usd BEOB is an "A" catagory setup. The ideal stop loss placement would be above the BEOB or above the .8500, for a longer term trade on this setup. I tend to trade more short term and see if they turn into a long term trade.
My stop loss was just above the S/R level (PPZ) 0.8330, about 70 pips. My risk was adjusted according. But once Price broke hard and hit the 1st target at .8205 I took half position off and my second half to break even now.
Many ways to skin this cat or "A" catagory setup. imo
Also note the Daily Bullish PB in powerblue. Is this PB at a great location? Maybe good not great, off a PPZ . Is it at swing Low? No. Yet it did offer some bullish pips, and it may just fail. This status of the Bullish PB gave me confidence in the BEOB.
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Price Action is a powerful thing, even in a consolidation. Check out your fold of all James16 charts, that I'm sure you have which you study daily.
There were many supporting confluences that this Aud/Usd Daily BEOB screamed, "Trade Me!"
Off recent Highs.
At the Weekly 61.8 fib.
MACD Divergence
The size of the formation compared to previous bars.
Below the .8500 (strong round number) PPZ level.
I agree with you that we should only trade the Ideal or A+ setups. And I'm sure others didn't take this one because it didn't meet that ideal. Which is very good in my book. But I will take the slightly less then ideal and manage them carefully.
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Specifically this statement:
"Now notice that on your 4 hour BEOB on the Gby/Jpy is not at the peak or highest point. Its in a consolidation area of the previous candles.
Yes, the consolidation is at swing high, but the BEOB is not."
Sorry please don't see it the wrong way. Not trying to pick at your words but trying to see the difference
Yes, I understand the conflicting point that I have posted. But the next sentence read, "Don't get me wrong, being a BEOB within a consoldation area that is at a swing high has potential."
As you can see the result of the 4 hour Gbp/Jpy BEOB in the consoldation gave up some nice pips when managed carefully. (Chart)
As you continue to practise and study these setups, which you are doing very well tradertt , you will see that as long as our goal is to seek the best setups to trade we will fine tune our skill in trading PA.
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Thank you. Now I understand. We all fine tune trading the PAs according to our experiences. So everyone will take certain setups at different times slightly differently.
I just wanted to check if there is any BIG NO NO in trading that consolidation
Thank you for the compliment. Still a beginner. Will be going into the PF soon after I am done with the BASICS as no point in wasting money if I do not even bother to build the foundation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt
Hi Jarroo,
So what I was confused about was the CONSOLIDATION portion cause my chart had a longer consolidation and was wondering if yours is also considered as a consolidation
What am I missing out. Sorry that I cannot get this into my thick head lolz
To answer your question about PA in consolidation. There is no difference in each consolidation. One is in a longer time period than the other. They can be traded cafefully. Location, Size and supporting confluences have to be met.
But when we have a Outside Bar at its highest/lowest point of a swing, be ready to bank some pips.
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No regrets buddy, it isn't about this trade you know that. It is about all your trades, and you know what works for you. That is what it comes down to in the end. Confidence is very important and Jarroo has it and that is why he kills it!
Thanks Mike.
I know at some point I have to get to this level. I know for some, its easy to do. But for me its difficult. Time to revisit Mr. Fuji. lol
One thing is for sure, I wouldn't be at the level I am at now without you, my friend.
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Hi people not posted for some time but always been lurking and learning,
it looks like a pin bar forming on eur/gbp I know the nose is not the longest but the fact it is formed directly on the 61 fibbo level gives it a good chance IMHO based mainly on the location.
your opinions please
Hey woolley! Long time, no see. How are you buddy?
61.8 Fib retracement can be a nice level to find some PA. As josh said, it would be nice if the size and structure was big enough to compensate the recent move down.
If that nose went down to the .8500 and then formed a Nice PB at the 61.8 fib, now we're talking. Size and some confluence.
Daily PPZ level looks to be around the .8550. Watch out for this area if you trade it. (Sorry I can't post charts now)
Edit : Looks like it got a bounce at that 61.8 fib and 4 hour PPZ level from what I can see.
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Yes i do not let winners into loser and i surely would have gotten out of this GJ trade at BE but when i saw the IB i give it some room and look at this.
Isn't this a beautiful sight if you are on right side of it.
Hey nasir. Can you post a chart showing the Hourly IB on the Gbp/Jpy that you gave room.
Just curious. (sorry I can't post charts)
Jim
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This is one of those legendary pin bars that a lot of people haven't seen because its the Euro vs the Check Krouna. Like James has taught us, if you're willing to wait for setups like this it's tough to lose.
That would be an A+ PB. lol
I laughed because its so obvious and great.
If one wants to know if a PB looks good enough to trade, no matter the time frame, one only has to bring this chart up and ask," Does it look like this one?" If not, then pass on it. lol
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jarroo,
thanks, i almost forgot to ask about this (IB location).
he may be referring to 1 of the 3 or all 3 candles (small green, small red, slightly bigger green candle) prior the last big bearish red bar on his chart.
Oh I see. Like a Master Candle break.
Thanks sChaos.
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That looks more like a bounce from a big strong PPZ than any kind of IB play. If anything, it broke the IB in the opposite direction of the trade (ie, it was a bullish break) and you would want to get out (with a profit) of the pin bar trade (or at least set BE) if you were managing on that timeframe.
To me, anyways.
Regardless, I would have completely set a stop a couple pips higher than the PPZ when I saw it heading north so strongly. Its either gonna hit the PPZ and bounce back down, or smash through. Dont see the value in leaving your stop...
Many ways to trade IBs. Popular way is the break of the Mother Candle at either direction. Not a bad IB confirmation play.
I agree with your trade management as well. Once the PB hit the 1st target I would bring down the stop loss from the top of the PB and place it within a S/R level of the setup itself or at break even. Above the PPZ within the setup just makes sense.
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Would you use the AUG 7th high Fib level (the 38.2 I believe) for added confluence or just the level you used because it established the downtrend? I think I just answered my own question which was the latter.
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Yep, IMO this one is up there with the USDCAD daily pin just not as famous.
Absolutely.
I always hear about these great traders that take one trade a year and make $100,000s. I believe this is what they look for when they take that one trade.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I get that. But what was your plan if it broke bullish through the candle?
If you were going to get out of the trade, either by moving to BE or just closing it, you could have already moved your stop to just above the PPZ (right at BE) and limited your risk. Anything that broke the candle was putting you in drawdown almost by default.
And if you werent going to get out of the trade, and wanted to just let it run... why watch the IB?
I'm genuinely curious on your reasoning here. i know you were talking about only managing a small account, and...
We are on the same page joel. That's why I asked about the IB. The PPZ was already there, near break even, why not just place it there and forget about it.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I can't tell you where I would be taking profit, cause I can't see the big picture. Usually I do not play outside bar....currently I'm sticking to the pins.
There are many factors you should consider before taking a bar like that, like how much traffic is in the way, is it based at swing high, does it have the potential for a long term run, what resistance (confluence) is supporting the trade, etc...
What I'll do is give you the areas you should be aware of, and why. You will decide what to do there.
I'm sure it took a long time to do, I think its excellent. I'm sure James16 loved this post, if he saw it.
Another thing about this great thread is that if you're looking at past PA setups that looked real good, search this thread in the past and see if it was talked about. You may even see a James16 chart on the very setup.
I was just wondering if any of you combine 2 or 3 bars into one bar or if it is best just to stick to 1 bar at a time.
You could interpret this as a pin bar although its formed over 3 days. It still is reading price action and getting the same information that price has been rejected for a certain level in the market.
There was a post not long ago about this and I found it interesting as I never thought to visualize multiple bars forming into one. My only concern would be perhaps not every one views it like this and the signals of combining...
About the topic of combining Bars.
Jigsaw has made some good points about keeping it simple and that the pickiness of a combined bar (2 Week PB, 2 Day BEOB, etc.) does not leave us. We still have to have a great location, supporting confluences, how much Traffic, "This is Critical", the size compared to previous bars and/or the move up/down, etc.
The criteria of a high quailty setup still has to be met. Just because a combination of bars forms a PA formation does not make a setup. Other parts of the story has to be read.
What is a Weekly PB? Its a 5 Day PB. What's a 4 Hour PB? Four (1) hour bars combined together.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
It's more important to understand where these areas are and then react accordingly.
I personally use information such as the size of a bar to decide to hold or not through these areas. This is one such size bar that would put me in the take profit mode. Simply for my style that is.
Hope that helps
Mike
I'm sure it was not only the size of that PB that helped your decision Mike. The PB looks a little crowded, like it was stuffed in an over loaded elevator. lol
Your statement above is an important one. Once we understand where these "trouble areas" are, the next step is to "react accordingly". Meaning there is an "action" on our part. An action to the management of our trade. Move to Break Even, take partial or full profits, etc.
Its a crucial part of the trade management on any given PA setup.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey Krue. Sorry I can't post my own charts right now.
Looks good. We have to be aware of all those Highs/Lows to the left, i.e. traffic. (chart)
Now depending on the quailty of this setup( location, size, confluences, etc,) this PB may cut through this traffic like a knife and reach your previous Highs as a target.
Would you consider this an "A" catagory setup? Same with the Eur/Jpy.
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Jarroo, thanks a ton, for the enlightment, this is exactly the insight I am looking for, and, I am trying hard to learn your trade management technique.
Yes, I think this seems to me an A category, if looking into daily. daily ppz, 50/61 fib ret, trendline. there are a lot trouble areas as you indicated already, hence not an A+
Hope I made a sense, still struggle in learning this method.
The size looks good. Above the daily PPZ level, 155.00. At the bottom of a consolidation area. It does have good potential krue. Good confluences that you have there.
I would play it tightly, meaning I would not have my stop loss below the PB. But that's just me. It could retrace into the PB and work out just fine. How Price cuts through that traffic and how strong the 155.00 acts as support would be what I would be watching.
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Just wanted to ask you something on your HARD BREAK
You have always said that you will see how price reacts and if there is a hard break.
I would like to know.
Say for example:
We are long at a position 1.0300 and we know there is traffic at around 1.0310
So when we enter the trade, and price moves up to 1.0310 and slows down, ie no hard break, what do we do? Close out the position immediately?
I would like you to elaborate a little bit more on this HARD BREAK thinggy if you have sometime.
Yes, close the postion or move to break even.
This hard to say because we have to assume that 1.0300 is a break of a high quality setup.
A high quailty J16 PA setup is a high momentum setup.
The initial break should be strong and continuous. By continuous I mean that Price should run a good amount of pips. One reason being, is that there is limited traffic in our way. A strong characteristic of an "A" setup.
So was the 1.0310 slow down caused by traffic? If not, I would give it more room to run.
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No problem. I will be out for a while too. Talk when you are back.
I also need to understand what you mean by some bar break stops are better.
First let's look at the setup that datogio took.
2 Day PB or Inside Bar at a swing High and with the over all down trend. Off a strong PPZ level 1.1100.
The Break (of the 2 Day PB not the IB, important) is below a strong round number, 1.1000. Traffic is minimal between the trigger and the 1st TP.
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2 Day PB or Inside Bar at a swing High and with the over all down trend. Off a strong PPZ level 1.1100.
The Break (of the 2 Day PB not the IB, important) is below a strong round number, 1.1000. Traffic is minimal between the trigger and the 1st TP.
The Bar that broke was . . what do you know . . . almost above the setup itself. Which is where a stop loss usually should be placed on a high quality PA setup.
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The Bar that broke was . . what do you know . . . almost above the setup itself. Which is where a stop loss usually should be placed on a high quality PA setup.
Instead of using the Break Bar or the top of the PA setup for the stop loss placement, why not use a tight stop loss just above the 1.1000 to see if this high momentum setup can break hard and hit the 1st TP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio
hard break, lets see what is she willing to give
(30 min chart to show the hard break)
Once Price breaks hard, it tells me a couple of things. 1.) Vaildation of the setup. 2.) Confirmation that the setup is correct. Meaning, that there is more downward potential, even if there is a retrace or retest of the break.
Once Price hit the 1st TP, I can take some off the table and move to break even or leave my stop loss in place. Either way, my risk is reduced or eliminated.
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Sometimes I feel I get too much braggart. I don't mean that...but it's a weird situation. I am 16 years old (yea, there is someone younger than you here LOL) hardly 2-3 months trading and its too easy.
I see many people over another forum crying after years of time and money wasted.
At least I got rid of those PONZI schemes and MLMs I was into
I think it's the hand of God, Johnny introduced me to this thread! I'm sure.
Ben
Wow. 16!!
That's freaking fantastic Ben.
This stuff is pretty simple, but a lot of "older" people bring their bad habits and misconceptions of what trading is really about . . . . the understanding of Price.
With the experience and guidance of the big guy, James16, you will not have to feel the pain, grief and lost treasure that many others have endured.
Your future looks very bright, indeed.
Jim
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Personally I play less attention to round numbers (every 100 pips) on daily and weekly simply because I have noticed they do not really have any dramatic effect on the price.
Most of the time weekly and daily pin bars will be working also without looking at location.
On the other hand, I can see ton of PA setups on the 1H which do not work.
Ben
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro
Yes - until you have existing confluence as at these round numbers. Confluence is the key - right? Most round numbers don't matter - until they do... ;-)
Great posts Ben and SP.
Many things in these posts to discuss, but SP's point of confluences, as he said, "is the key". Especailly when trading on the lower time frames, which I define as the 4 Hour and Hourly.
Which bring me to fxvision's post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by fxvision
Anyone trading EUR/JPY to the long side these days?
Long myself from the 133 area from smaller TF.
Not sure on his long entry from a smaller time frame, but I got a pretty good quess.
Its been talked about many times on the thread, that if one wants to venture down to the lower time frames (4H, 1H) their locational search should be at the higher time frame PPZ levels with supporting confluences.
The Eur/Jpy (thanks fxvision);
133.00 is a very clear and strong PPZ level. Check the 133.00 on th Daily/Weekly in 2003, 2004 and 2005.
Did the 133.00 RN form the PPZ level or did the PPZ level form at the 133.00 RN? Mike and Joel give great insight on these Round Number situations. Here is mine: Who cares. lol (no disrespect here. )
As long as I understand that it is there, its all I need.
Now add the 50% retracement from the last move up, the 150 ema and you got yourself a very strong location. The added confluences to the RN and PPZ level gives it strength, as SP was saying.
Now let's move to the lower time frames at this great location. . . .
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Now let's move to the lower time frames at this great location. . . .
No definable Price Action formations on this feed, on the 4 hour chart. I would look at different feeds to see if a clearer PA exist. (Blue line represents the Daily 150 ema on the 4 Hour and Hourly).
Remember that different feeds will present Price cut up differently, but the PPZ levels and other confluences will stay the same. ( most of the time.).
On the Hourly, I suspect fxvision took the BUOB. Very Nice.
But as you can see there were many opportunities on these lower time frames once the higher time frame PPZ level with confluences were identified.
Here's another one that is currently on the Eur/Gbp . . . .
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Hi all, 1st post. On my 4H EURGBP I don't have a PB. I have a bullish candle. My charts reflect USA EST close (assume its New York). Any advice much appreciated.
To add what ghous had said, which is true that different feeds will present Price differently will tend to balance out in the end.
But the important point of the Eur/Jpy and Eur/Gbp posts are the highly confluenced area, the location, of where we look for PA to form or develop. Many will agree, that the main focus is on waiting for these locations first, then a confirming PA formation to gives a hint of where Price may be heading.
Just wanted to make that point clear.
Jim
PS: oh yeah, Welcome aboard Grousman.
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Thanks for the prompt response & welcome ghous & jaroo. Re Eur/Jpy I will try & post my chart for some feedback on the setup as I see it. (Hey I am new to this so input much appreciated). I think it is a good set up to go long because;
PB 3 days ago & now heading up
PB was off resistance (red line)
Last candle closed above next reistance (red line)
Bouncing up off 50ema & 200ema
Comments much appreciated.
Your reasons "to go long" are OK. But the main focus of a great Price Action setup, the J16 way, are PA formations at PPZ levels that preferably line up at a swing High or Low. To quote KissFan's great tag line: Great bars at great locations.
The one thing that's missing from your chart are the PPZ levels. Here are mine on the Eur/Jpy Daily (chart), 138, 135, 133, 131 and 126.
One concern about the Eur/Jpy Daily BUOB is, although it is off nice PPZ levels, its not at a very deep swing Low. BUOB are best played at swing Lows, example Eur/Gbp Daily BUOB (chart)
Although if you ask James16's 11 year old son about the tradablilty of Outside Bars he would say their pretty simple. Check this post out :
Just browsing through some charts. USDJPY is drawing a bit of attention.
Inside bar followed by BUOB/ doji type bar.
Failed to close below 61% fib retracement level.
There is a little bit of a mess to the left that could act as resistance and is a concern, however if taken I would look for price to reach 95.00 then take profit and tighten stops.
Any opinions welcome.
Sorry for my chart, I will post from photobucket in future.
Cheers
Chart looks great Boca. Great analyisis, 94.00 is a strong PPZ level.
Looks good.
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Watch for a likely pullback to test the broken resistance in the 134.40-60 region. Any 1H swing back to the area forming a bullish reversal formation or a buy signal would suffice. Market is likely going to need to suck in some sellers before breaking higher and up through the descending trendline. Buying a break of 135.50 does not give you much room towards 138 compared to your stop distance in perhaps 133.80. Since I am risk free on my first buy, I will be watching during the monday sessions for an addon. If you are...
Very nice fxv.
Sorry but I can't see your chart very clearly. I hope I replicated it here correctly.
Another possible senario is the strength of the 135.00 PPZ level which was tested on Friday and could move upwards from here. Or it could drop like a rock. lol.
Should be fun to watch.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Sorry but I can't see your chart very clearly. I hope I replicated it here correctly.
Another possible senario is the strength of the 135.00 PPZ level which was tested on Friday and could move upwards from here. Or it could drop like a rock. lol.
Should be fun to watch.
Jim
1st target Hit. Eur/Jpy Daily BUOB.
I wonder if Jim's son is in on this one.
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mind lending me your points of entry, sl and exit, jarroo? given the pin on such a nice confl location, the trade must have been managed in a much challenging manner, skill of high level has to be learnt, jarroo.
meanwhile, I get into a little adventure just now, wanted to make sure I am acting upon a correct understanding of the technique, I think probably I am reading the material as it is supposed to be read in this thread, maybe no??
here they are, jarroo, I am on a free trade now, both stops are at BE
As you saw on my Daily chart of the Eur/Gbp, the confluences of the daily .8700 PPZ, 150 ema and 61.8 Fib. Moving down to the 4 hour time frame, a little bearish PB presented itself from Friday at this level.
My inital entry was below the previous Highs (orange area) about 6 pips below the break of the PB. Stop loss was above the .8700 at 08710. I would keep this stop loss engaged only if a hard strong break ocurred. A hard break did not ocurr so I got out with a -8 pip loss. I'll wait for a bigger dog to stroll by at this great area or I may re-enter at the same entry level.
Not seeing the What, Where, Who and How on your charts that you presented.
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the congestion is making a lot of trouble, i was trying to override them, that is obviously a stupid illusion, the pattern is a pattern, has to respect them. a little bit pscho journey on this is required, I think. will come up a solution to recognize them in trade plan.
yeah, sunday bar makes no sense, huhuhuhuhu ==> embarrassed.
Don't be embarrassed. I use to trade them all the time. lol
Yes, the less congestion (traffic) the better. I would like to see how many times Mike posted "there's to much traffic on that one". lol
Less traffic is what we look for which is inherent in a high quality PA setup. That's why we like PA at swing Highs and Lows, less traffic.
A high quality (A+) PA setup can cut through alot of minor traffic.
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Sometimes it might be the time of day, and this pair is sooo S L O W... New PB broke about an hour ago. I personally like these kinds of areas to trade. Nice, well defined range. 4 hr had some divergence as well.
But it seems like this is angling for a bounce north - but i hate to take on any bias on purpose...
Thanks, SP.
Yeah, I was holding on a little longer because of the time of Day. I've seen them break hard during this earilier time, . . didn't want to miss it if it did. lol
Many confluences on the short bias side . . . . its hard not to see any thing different, but I agree.
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exactly, jarroo, this was one of the points I took for the charts I posted earlier. of course, I should haven't, given my current level of skill.
There is nothing wrong with focusing on great locations, krue. It really is the main power behind a great setup. When we first start out, we focus on the Price Action patterns because its new to us. This is not a bad thing to do. But its said on this thread many times (as with Real Estate) Location, location, Location.
Find time to study many of Raczek's charts. That is one thing that he is fantastic at analyizing . . . great layered locations for Price to flip or continue.
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probably give me a little more of your insight, if I may? are you going to scale in at the red arrow point, if scale in be part of your style? thanks as always
No, I won't scale in at that level. I will use that level to see if Price retests my entry and then continues down. This will help confirm that my entry is correct to get to the next area, which is my 1st TP.
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1,2,3 - A,B,C, baby you and me... oops - I was channeling the Jackson 5.
like i said, i hate to take a bias, it messes with my brain, but I am very interested in strong PA at the 61.8 fib shown in the chart, or perhaps as a pullback on a breakout of the channel. Gray boxes are some target areas for north and south moves from our range.
We've poked through the 150EMA, let's see if it stays there.
Alot of energy for Monday, SP. lol
That range is pretty tight. Pullback on a break, with confirming PA looks like the best way to go. I'm sure Mike would agree.
Just thought we would range a little longer, that's what they do most of the time, right? lol
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Whoever it was (I can't remember at the moment) that shorted the GU off of weekly PB, nice trade!! All systems are "GO", as long as she doesn't decide to bounce off of lower channel TL....it seems that it could be a runner....if only she can break thru 1.6200...I would like to hop in on a retrace...we shall see.
Understanding the role of ppzs is an important step towards a good long friendly relationship with them,
What price did and why it did what it did shouldn't surprise you,
I would be extremely sorry for anybody who blames a "friend" for a loss on this one.
g
Excellent post ghous. This is the core of the J16 way. imo.
Sure, being a bit more picky could have netted a better result, but the understanding of why Price does . . . . what it does . . . . where it does it, is the key to a successfull trade and a loss.
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Haven't been in a while in here, thanks to all for learning me Price Action in this thread! It's helping me in all markets and timeframes I watch.
During the many months I spent time in here I've learned A LOT more than just PA; Patience in taking trades, the importance of a well funded account which eliminates the need to make 4 trades a day, respect for other traders (newbies and old ones), understanding that it takes time and practice to become a consistant and successful trader, trading psychology, lots of inspiration, learned to treat trading...
Thanks for the kinds words artov.
If Jim wrote a book it would be a best seller easily. It be would very inspirational to traders and people who never even seen a chart. Although once they read it, they would download a Mt4 platform for demoing, for sure. lol
Jim
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Pros:
- Long nose
- Off 134 Weekly PPZ
- Off EMA 150
- Off the short term trend line
- With the Weekly trend
Cons:
- I can only see the traffic above its head.
Would you classify it as a A+ setup?
My strategy would be to have a TP at 135.5
Cheers
I agree with Joel and Hipster, this is no where near an "A" catagory setup let alone an A+.
Too much traffic. Why? Because its not at a swing Low.
The size too small compared to the previous bars.
134.00 maybe a PPZ but the 135.00 is much more definable and clearer level.
150 ema, short term trendline and with the weekly trend are all good confluences. But when they do not line up at a swing Low and PPZ level at the PA formation, they lose their strength considerably.
As I write this, it looks like it may go to the 135.00 as Hipster said. But this does not take away what we define as an A+ setup. Price Action is a powerful thing. I don't know why anyone would trade without some assemblage of it.
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Its always good to refocus again on seeing what an A+ trade looks like. I have a folder of many (if not all) of James16 charts that I still review all the time. Its amazing as you progress with this material, then look back at charts and see them in a clearer light.
Oh yeah . . . . this is what I'm looking for . . .
How do you like my G/U trade today? Entered at 1.6295, ran 30pips to my way, came back to BE and I got out.
Opinions? Too tight management?
As long as you understand why and where it reversed on you then I would say you managed it right. Meaning you moved to break even knowing it hit the 1st area of "trouble". Being late on Friday, I would have taken all of it off for profit.
Also, you could have taken half off at 30 pips and move your stop loss -30 pip away (on the other half) from your break even point so the worst possible outcome would be a net zero gain.
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Here in Israel we have 2 months of vacation between grades, July and August (summer). At the middle of next week we go back to school...for the last year - and then to the army for three years
Till then my plan is to save money for a nice account
@ Jarroo - You really liked that post eh? thanks man
Just for the simply fact that how quickly you understood what Jim is teaching here and on his videos. It really is that simply and Jim presents it in a no nonsense way that makes it very easy to understand. He's a very good teacher.
So I'm really not surprised that you understand it, its just that some of us (me included) takes a little longer to see how simply it really is.
So keep posting little brother , I'm sure you are seeing the benefits of posting and giving analysis on different setups. It will help you as well as other people when you do this.
Jim
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I noticed someone said Aus/NZ was a choppy pair. Was just looking at some charts and a pin has formed on the weekly.
I have been reading and listening to you guys about locating trouble spots and ppz etc and not taking trades that have minimal space. What do you think about this pair and this pin setup?
I have marked a few areas of possible trouble so there probably isnt alot of space for this one to go?
This looks good matt. It is at a swing low, the size and shape could be better. It is trading into a PPZ level, 1.2300-1.2350, at the bottom of the previous consolidation area (peach). Daily shows the 365 ema adding strength to this PPZ level.
Price could break up through the PPZ level, use it as support and continue in the peach consolidation area as it did in the past.
Or break down because of the PPZ level and the weight or mass of the previous consolidation area.
My thinking is that Price will continue downward. Note the candle that broke hard through this PPZ level and consolidation (check mark). Price maybe currently retesting this level and continue down.
Bearish PA is what I would be looking for on the Daily and/or 4 hour time frame.
Just some thoughts,
jim
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I do this all the time.. try adding fib retaces of the main pa bar & look for your pa on 1 or 2 tf's lower for confirmation...
keep it up Ben.. your doing awesome
Very nice Ben. There is nothing wrong with entering off a Price Action setup, be it at the break of retracement, with a low amount of risk.
I have to expand a little on RustyJeff's important point. Rememeber our premise here: We are looking for setups that have high probability outcomes. I'm not taking away your examples Ben, just expanding on them.
Take the Weekly DBHLCs Gbp/Jpy and Gbp/Chf. This a great PA formation, but with all PA formations, this is only part of the story.
Weekly DBHLC Gbp/Jpy (blue):
DBHLC is at a swing high, some fib confluence with the 61.8, at 50% retracement level and a strong round numbers 160.00.
This gave a nice hard break and gave up over 200 pips before stopping my 2nd half out for break even. ( As Tia mentioned , a 50 pip stop loss was what I used on this break, although the draw down after the break was about 15 pips, if that.)
Prior to the Weekly DBHLC, was a 2 Day Pin Bar(white) with some good supporting confluences. Swing high, divergence, weekly fib and 50% retracement levels, etc. A stop loss above this setup would still have you in this trade.
Back to the Weekly DBHLC. Price stops me out at break even after some banked pips and your looking for a possible re-entry at a retracement level. The key point is that the formation was validated, meaning it broke.
We now look for bearish PA at a swing high with supporting confluences. The daily shows nothing. The 4 hour shows a bearish PB (green) meeting these criteria.
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Take the Weekly DBHLCs Gbp/Jpy and Gbp/Chf. This a great PA formation, but with all PA formations, this is only part of the story.
Weekly Gbp/CHF DBHLC,
Off a Swing High, 50% retracement level and strong round number, 1.8000.
Again a stop loss placement above this setup and your looking real good.
Not the hardest break but a drawdown of less then 10 pips after the break gave an easy opportunity to move to break even.
Price retreaces back up into the formation, as it tends to do especially on higher time frames, and now we look for bearish PA on the Daily and/or 4 hour time frames.
Nothing on the Daily that stays out nor on the 4 hour time frame. The purple area on the 4 hour would have been a perfect area for PA, but nothing that stays out (darn it!). There was some inside bars at the purple area on other feeds but i did not take them.
Re-entry at the break of the DBHLC, tight stop loss above the 1.7700.
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Not a bad plan nasir. Not feeling your trendline as you have drawn it. I like very definable trendlines on higher time frames and they must line up with other confluences like a PPZ or fib level, etc.
Also, this PB is on the Daily so it has a more strength.
Is it an A+ PB setup? No way. Aud/Usd has been trending for some time it may be due for some ranging time.
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After a couple of months R&R I'm trying to gently ease myself back into the swing of things.
A few things on the radar this week:
GBPUSD Pin: Not in the best position and the pair is still in an uptrend albeit a very weak one so countertrend is not your friend and I'll steer clear at this stage....this pair is teetering on the egde though and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this head South.
EURUSD IB:I'll be keeping an eye on this to see what eventuates....there is some confluence around the 1.4200 area with a previous...
Hey welcome back tehuringa.
Now here is a guy who knows an A+ setup when he see one. He's got the pip count to prove it.
I agree, nothing standing out that screams "Trade Me!"
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I won't go long on this one either. But i did got some pips playing the BEOB earlier and i was in it trade while a go but it took me out on BE.
I caught some off that BEOB as well.
It could easily go long nasir. Price consolidaing under a strong round number, .8500, is a bit curious. It could breakout through the .8500. I would then wait for a retest and PA for confirmation to go long if that happens.
A definite Mike Breakout-Pullback possibility.
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I would have gone pretty close I reckon Jim...on the daily there is a great double top off the juicy 1.8000 area and the 50% fiib. The pair does seem to have turned over breaking the trendline....with the trend too so it had a lot of things going for it and positives across the timeframes so yeah I reckon I would have pulled the trigger.
Looks like I came off my break a week or so too late
lol
Thanks Dave.
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Its always good to have Jim AND Mark on the same side as you.
My main concern on this one is the time of the week and corresponding lack of volume. Are there going to be a bunch of cranky NY/London traders who are going to fight back once they wake up and see what the sneaky Aussies have been up to?
Nice one Joel. That sucker hit the 1TP almost to the pip.
By the the way, I always low ball my targets.
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@ jarro - Yea I got your point. PA alone is only one part of the story, I know. I have stopped using EMA's and fibs because they don't really help me.
Ben
I used to feel the same way Ben. James16 uses them after close to 30 years of trading and he finds high value in them as confluencing tool . . . . guess what . . . . I'm using them.
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yes, imho, that's the prudent thing to do at that particular situation. kill the trade ASAP
(u could have avoided trading short, in the first place, if u correctly determined the trend &/or the PA setup's situation wherein it has an immediate 0.9165ish PPZ below it)
James16 THIS IS CRITICAL
"....THIS IS CRITICAL.
WE MUST LEARN TO:
1. notice a strong s/r area just beyond our pa if it exists.
2. [u][b]know that if we trade into it we had better be...
I couldn't have said it any better, sChaos.
Very nice.
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This is alot longer than I planned. So, here is the short version.
Behold, the power of the sports analogy:
I kick a football at a window. It doesnt break, and comes back to me.
Next, I kick it at the window again, but from a bit further back. The ball goes to the same point (ie, to the window) but by the time it gets there, it is already decelerating, because I kick like a girl. Either that or I kick it more softly. Because I kick like a girl.Therefore, it is travelling slower when it hits the window this time. If it didnt...
Great post Joel. I'm going to be reading this one many times.
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This is very interesting as usual. I think I have summed it up in the chart below.
That makes sense now to say that the more a certain supportre/sistance area gets tested and the rejection is weaker from the previous time - the odds for a breakout grow.
Just a few things which passed through my head while reading this post.
Ben
This kid is like butter . . . he's on a roll.
Mike, are you sure you don't have any kids?
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They say (who ever "they" are) that many traders get caught up at looking at past data to foresee the future. But the great ones (like all of us on this thread ) look ahead to where Price may be heading and have a plan.
Nice one Raczman.
Jim
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I did not understand. Do mean these reasons were not enough or else? So i could answer you better.
Btw i have not entered yet.
You have identified the correct PA formations. Is there any other supporting confluences in structure ( i.e. size , shape, relation to preivous candles, swing High/Low etc), traffic density (i.e. "This is Critial") and/or Fib levels, MACD divergence, round numbers, 50% retracement levels . etc.
Formations are great especially at a swing High or Low. The more supporting confluences we have the better to help our decision to take a trade.
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Sloped out with BE first half and a small loss on the second.
My plan worked, just another tinny loss.
She bounced from the zone I was expecting.
Nicely done datogio.
PA in consolidation areas are a bit tricky. Protecting yourself is key. It did go where you (we) expected it and they always tend to bounce, sometimes a little, sometimes alot.
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Did you play a reduced stop on this daily PB trade? If so where did you place it?
Thanks
Yes, I played a very tight stop loss on this one about 30 pips. Once it broke and ran a bit ( about 25 pips) I move to break even. It it broke and then ran against me hard, I probably would have gotten out earlier then a 30 pip loss.
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This time it seemed like bounced a lot. expected trouble zones is the biggest value that a trader can have. I was just fulfilling my rules that I learned here thanks to a lot of experienced guys (you are in the top of the list Jaroo ) and then found my style based on backtesting and demoing.
I learned from the best, brother. The big guy, Mike and many others.
And found my own stlye as well.
Man, isn't great datogio, when they just take off and never look back. lol
The next one will do that.
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Sorry for the late answer i was bussy with some other (trades i will post).
I agree these are not at there Swing H/L and Traffic on the left side is also to much.
Looking at EurCad returned from 61.8 and 50.0 closing below 365EMA and 89SMA right in a PPZ and that 4h BEOB would have been a Breakout of this PPZ. But trade did not triggered and BEOB turned out to be a PB.
GBPCAD came back from 50.0 (a PPZ also) and 1.8000 round number. Trade was so with the trend and there is a trend line from 30 jun also which was hit.
I must admit i should...
That's ok, nasir. Might I suggest that you line up your PPZs on the Weekly and Daily first, before moving down to the 4 hour and Hourly. They play an important role on the lower time frames.
Or just stay on the Daily and Weekly, many opportunities to grab some pips.
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My 2 dirhams worth; waiting on this one because it may reject the PPZ it is trying to battle through. I.e. I am looking for either a strong move to close under the ppz, retrace to the PPZ & PA to confirm it has been rejected and moving down, OR PA at PPZ to confirm its rejection and a move up. Either way for once I am showing greater patience than prior trades.
Am I on track?
Sorry if I overlooked your post Grousman, but I wasn't sure on the pair you were talking about.
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Thank you very much for your help. That was one of the most informative and well laid out examples I've been given. That kind of assistance seems to be a theme around here, which is why I've been watching this thread for so long. Every little piece of knowledge I gain is invaluable. I hope that I can soon offer information that may be deemed useful, as well!
I agree. Ben sure knows how to read Price very well. Price isn't that hard to read and understand. It just takes a little time, practise and good examples like Ben has given. Nice job Ben.
Now if that BEOB was where we want them to be, which is at a swing High, then they become real easy to read, manage and are more profitable.
Jim
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Chart looks a bit messy, but a high confluenced area at the 1.6400 level. PPZ level, emas (magenta line is the Daily 365), fib levels and round number. Bearish PB at this level.
A raczek entry is in there somewhere, probably the 1.6400.
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Notice the room below after it breaks. Nice clean area.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
+ the pb just retraced at the 150 ema.
Quote:
Originally Posted by woolley
hi everyone anyone playing 4hr pinbar (FXPRO) after break of daily up trend and 4 hr tripple top looks like could have the legs to run down quite a few pips yet.
I quess I should read more before I post.
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Just wanted to make it clear - I AM NOT TRADING WITH THE SAME THOUGHT PROCESS AS MOST OF THE SENIORS. take that into account. If what I am doing is wrong - I think I will be able to notice it and change it. But now I do very good.
(Not directly to you Joel buddy have a great day bro).
Ben
We understand Ben. We like showing PA setups that have a higher probability of following through to the next level of S/R; i.e., swing highs/lows, less traffic, size compared to previous bars, etc.
What your doing is fantastic brother. And is no way near the wrong way of trading. Its very smart with reasons to back it up.
So, don't stop posting those great charts like the last one. The seniors love 'em! (Well, at least this one does. )
Jim
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Couldn't we take 4hr PA to jump on board??
Of course something other than this bearish pin at the moment.
Maybe jump on board to the down side. lol
If I was James, I would see that the Daily closed as a BUB, but did not give a strong Bullish PA setup. That's a strong down trend on the U/J, although it did give a bounce off the 91.50-92.00 PPZ level. A strong Pitbull setup is what I would like to confirm and/or add to James' position.
As I mention earlier, if the Daily closed higher to form a BUOB then we would be looking pretty.
Since it did not, and Price reached or fullfilled itself by hitting the next S/R level or "trouble area", tighter stops and a possblie short (as you mentioned on the 4 hour, possible PB) would be my options.
Sorry I can't post charts (darn it.)
Jim
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Chart looks a bit messy, but a high confluenced area at the 1.6400 level. PPZ level, emas (magenta line is the Daily 365), fib levels and round number. Bearish PB at this level.
A raczek entry is in there somewhere, probably the 1.6400.
Can someone post a chart of the Gbp/Usd 4 hour chart? (FXpro if you got it)
I can't get anything clear from where I'm at now.
I don't know why I didn't highlight the 1.6300 . . . Duh.
Thanks
Jim
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hey jarroo,
if u were in this trade, would ur stop be above the bar break,or above the 1st bar that 1.63 to still give ur trade a little more room to breadth or .....
hmmmm! just remembered how u play them...u would have taken half at 1.63 area and moved to be ( and u would have bee stopped out by now on your second half)
i have my sl above the bar that hit 1.63 , my stop is around 1.6358(now risking about 0.2ish%)
just curious
thnx
Yes, you got it. Half at 1.6300ish 2nd half at break even that is now stopped out.
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knocked me out of my uj trade and i had it around the neck.
im still not going to pay attention to the news.
IM NOT IM NOT IM NOT.
NEVER NEVER NEVER EVER EVER EVER.
its a dead end road and at the end its bleak and the scenery sucks.
trust me.
You could have kept your stop loss at break even (92.00) and you would have been fine, big guy . . . hehehe . . .easy for me to say, my pip size is bit smaller . . .lol
Interesting where Price closed today . . right on your 93.00 you talked about.
All in all, not a bad way to start the weekend, my friend.
Jim
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I am trying to understand the reason for James going long on USD JPY.
From his chart I can see that he take the trade because there are divergence/big round number/double bottom/very tight stop. Are those factors enough to pull the trigger even there is no daily PA present? (Though I do see some pinbar on H4 and H1)
To me, this trade is like catching a falling knife, since the price has been going down from early august. Please feel free to comment.
Thx
A major part of a high quality PA setup is its location with supporting confluences. I believe James saw this level as he has seen it a thousand times before and decided to take low risk "blind" entry at the 92.00.
The 92.00 was a Daily/Weekly PPZ level with MACD divergence as shown on Jim's chart. (Chart 1)
As Jim stresses, we look for these high conflenced areas and use PA formation to confirm our setup. On the 4 hour, show a BUOB. Although the size may not have been the best, everything else pointed to a low risk trade with stops below the 92.00.
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Take the Eur/Cad for example. We have a strong Daily/ Weekly PPZ level at the 1.5800. Long term EMAs and Fib retracement levels on the Daily. A very stong confluenced area. A low risk, "blind" entry near the 1.5800 would not have been a bad way to go.
There was some PA (Pin Bars) on the 4 hour time frame but nothing that really stands out. The point is that a great location can present a low risk opportunity with a little practise.
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hi guys. I was just wondering how I should be looking at this. Im confused again lol. Maybe over thinking again
Ok G/J pin on weekly may not be the best but I know you guys always say trade with the trend. As a rookie I dont really trade 4 hour but I guess you could say gj is ranging on the weekly and the pin may indicate a move up to the top of the range.
But the other train of thought I have is the short term daily trend is down right? A logical place to look for a PA is on a pull back to continue the downtrend on the 4 hour chart.
How...
I like it, Matt.
Yes, it's true that the daily shows a down trend , but we could be in a consolidation period, which Price tends to do most of the time. (as you have said) The Weekly and Daily PBs could be showing us that this consolidation will continue.
The 153.50 looks like the "trouble area", but a nice break could allow us (me) to move to break even and see if she goes to the moon (or the 160.00 lol).
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so if price doesnt break that 153 region would you look for shorts if a PA setup occured on the 4 hour as we are in a downtrend on the daily. Seems to be nice place for a pullback. I guess you have to be prepared for any situation
thanks for your input
Yes, that 153.50 area looks pretty strong. A nice bearish pitbull PA at that level would be nice.
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Isn't it interesting how we can have different takes?
I had posted http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post3019874 that I liked the look of the GBPJPY daily 2 days ago, but Mike said it was such a no no for him.
I had already taken it anyway, but I still struggle to decide how to manage the stops.... I am used to shorter TF's so I find making and giving back 50+ pips very hard to do.... in the end I put a trailing stop on it and got stopped out with just 19pips.
I find the management the hardest part by far..... I...
I'm sure Mike didn't like that size of the PB but I bet he loved that location. Although it did break hard with a retest.
I agree with Ben and many others, that you manage the trade on the same time frame that the setup was given. A conflicting signal on a lower time frame may cause confusion. Most likely, the conflicting signal may workout and then continue in the direction of the higher time frame's signal.
I agree, manageing trades can be the hardest part of trading. The key for me is manageing the risk or eliminating it all together. Much like James16 , I will take some off the table and move the other position to break even. Or instead of moving the other position to break even, I will place the stop loss away from break even to allow more room for the trade yet if it gets stopped out I will have net gain or breakeven result.
Making and giving up 50 pips, 100 pips or 450 pips is what you will have to get use to if you want to endure a long term trade. It does make it easier when you know that your worst possible outcome is that you lose zero money.
Jim
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Hey Jarroo,
I see Pin bar on the weekly TF for AJ,NJ,CJ and GJ
would you plz advise which PB are the good location to be observation next week base on the J16
Thks,
The Aud/Jpy and Nzd/Jpy bullish PBs are at a swing high or at a very shallow swing low. Although they could be tradable if managed carefully, I would pass on these.
The Cad/Jpy and the Gbp/Jpy are at deeper swing Lows along with the confluencing PPZ and Fib retracement level. All good and better setups, but their size are a bit small for my liking.
I like the Cad/Jpy. Price broke the two PPZ levels of 85.00 & 86.00 and seems to be retest the 86.00 to continue upward. Nice 2 Day PB that broke nicely.
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It's always cool to look ahead of Price to see areas that are heavily confluenced. I'm not saying that Price is heading there right now (maybe ), but the 92.00 on the Cad/Jpy sure looks good.
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How then can we have a better gauge that the PA is a result of new positions being initiated? In general, when there’s PA + strong confluence. Best if its in the direction of the trend.
Strong confluence of support and resistance are watched by everyone. The big boys throwing around a mountain of money a pop also see this and likely put on their positions around these levels too.
That's the stuff that drives prices: New orders coming into the market from the sidelines.
Not any ol’ confluence.
Strong confluence.
Stuff you can see...
I spotted these 2 setups tonight, a daily PB (CAD) and a 4hr BEOB (AUD),they seem fine, but I feel there's something missing there, not sure if I should get in, what do guys think?
Looks good judith. As Mike has said, there's some decent traffic. But it's at a swing Low with divergence, above a strong PPZ level round number, 1.8000. Green flag for me.
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I know this isn't a fundy's threads but be careful buying the CAD. Dollar index is down, crude and gold are up. These are not good signs for the USD.
Thanks Dave. I'm not a big fundy guy. I don't know how many times I've entered a clean PA setup while the fundy guys (not you) told me I was foolish to take that trade because this index said this or that. So, I tend to ignore them.
I actually like when all the fundies are against a quality PA setup. lol
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Great post! Though I was under the impression that you usually don't trail stops for Daily and weekly in your post (My Exit Strategy) hehe but guess it is discretionary
I will read it again and again to learn from it.
Thank you
That's one of many of Mike's classic posts. I read them all, many times.
I missed that Gbp/Chf Weekly PB at the last week of 2008, that broke on the 5th Jan. It did look a little poodlish.
How sweet was that break that never looked back for over a 1000 pips. Check out the 30 min chart.
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I spotted these 2 setups tonight, a daily PB (CAD) and a 4hr BEOB (AUD),they seem fine, but I feel there's something missing there, not sure if I should get in, what do guys think?
Looking good on the 4 hour BEOB Aud/Usd, judith. Nice divergence on the Daily to back it up.
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I took a trade earlier today (OZ time) because of that Aud BEOB. Not directly though.
It was good how it closed convincingly well below the previous 4 bars. Always pricks my ears up.
I think like me maybe you seen (??) that it wasn't strong enough to counter the steep rise the chart has given us the past few days. And not enough room to that first potential trouble spot. It nearly looked like one of those retrace fakeouts you learn to notice after a while didn't it?
The BEOB itself hadn't hit the previous peak...
Well said Bundy.
My thoughts were that Price would at least hit the blue S/R level before hitting the .8600 or above. ( the black line was my stop loss, .8620) I knew those Highs (orange line) were a "trouble spot", but I had confidence that the quality of the setup would push to the blue S/R level. It did not.
If another setup presented itself like this one, I would take it again and not change a thing. (that's just me. )
Jim
(Sorry, I can't post current charts)
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You do really well taking those trades too, on the whole!
For the record, your blue S/R level was my thought too for ending the trade if it made it. (...That's where it was at the least going to retrace IMO.)
I don't know how else to explain why my confidence on it pushing through was less than yours.
...I suspect for the same reasons Judith was uneasy about it.
...Probably along the lines of the 'turning an ocean liner around' parallelism we use. It was more like it stopped and backed up for a little while, rather than turned.
Forgetting...
Man Bundy . . . you word things so clearly . . it's probably why I'm one of your biggest fan. I like that . . . more room to manage . . to allow momentum to build in an already momentum buildt setup. Good stuff, because it makes sense . . easily.
The 4 hour Aud/Usd BEOB was in a consolidation area not at a peak or highest point. This should have gave me more pause as well.
The Daily Cad PB is a good example of what your saying here. It fits it to a tee. Orange line is not giving any room to manage and stalling momentum.
Thanks Bundy.
Jim
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i took some off the table at the 1st aqua line u drew there to reduce stop distance to break even. Is this a decent strategy for this 1?
There are many different ways to manage a given setup. For me its the quality of the setup that I give more leeway to it's stop loss placement. Although I do manage them all pretty tightly, even the A+ ones.
It's a decent strategy in my book, moving to break even after the 1st trouble area is hit. But you have to find out for yourself what works for you.
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Did you get involved in the break of this yesterday? Wondering because I know you use tight stops and look for a quick break, so maybe you got stopped out? If so, what was the strategy for re-entering?
Basically how did this trade play out for you starting from yesterday?
Thanks in advance.
No, I didn't play the initial break from yesterday. Consolidation Price Action setups can be a bit tricky due the obvious traffic that they inherently possess. Especially the orange line on my chart showing a strong S/R level right infront of the PB. I will usualy, not always, wait and see how Price reacts to this 1st level that's right smack infront of the setup and see if it retraces.
The strong PPZ level at the round number, 1.0800 and divergence gave me more confidence then relatively small PB to the previous downward big candles.
I'm sure some James16ers placed their buy stop just above the PB, stop loss just below the PB and never blinked an eye. I wouldn't blame them on this one.
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1. I had placed my stop below the breaking bar as was your method (is it still your practice?).
2. I took partial profit at the first target, and moved the rest to breakeven but SL was hit at the BE.
3. Given the stall in the past 24 hours, would you consider reentering?
4. Also, I am not sure the orange line you drew is that much of a S/R line. Would that have prevented you from taking this trade?
Thanks.
1. I do use the Bar that breaks on many setups, but if there is a more obvious S/R level within the setup itself, I will use that one. In the case of the Daily PB Usd/Cad the left eye, as with many Pin Bar setups, is a common S/R level and not a bad place to put your stop loss to avoid a full bar loss (black line). And of course, below the PB itself is indeed the best place for a stop loss on a setup that is of high quailty. I believe the Daily Cad PB is of high quality.
2. & 3. I did the same. I re-entered on the 10th at 1.0825 and once it got to the 1TP (blue) I took 28 pips and move to break even, and then stopped out. My stop loss was just below the 1.0800 at 1.0785. Why did I have such a tight stop loss if I believe this is a high quality setup? Because I subscribe to the same mindset that James16 has so perfectly spoken of recently: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=43401
I personally would rather "hope" for a runner with my stop at breakeven than "hope" for a target area while in a drawdown.
4. The orange line is clearly a S/R level. I veiw these levels stronger then just previous Highs or Lows, bacause they are made up of both.
(Sorry I can't post current charts)
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jarroo,
i have been curious about this(not sure if u have answered this previously):
why are there instances when u cant post charts?
are u on holiday or something (away from your PC)?
Thanks Sir.
btw, james16 thread, now 2900 pages (default setting) wohoo...
Yes, I'm away from my trading room and regular charts, computer, etc.
Everyday is a holiday.
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I think there are much better opportunities. Look for bars at swing high's and lows and a bar that is significantly larger that the preceding bars. That and there is a local price flip. This area is a tough one. And price is headed back into that blasted channel..
Look at the attached chart - the marked Outside bar was a nice one. Confluence out the wazoo! Perfection.
Big Bar
At a big round number (1.8000) shared by a PPZ
At the 61.8% retrace
At the 365 EMA
These are totally worth waiting...
This is what its all about SP, as you know. This is what James16, Mike, Bundy, and many others talk about on this thread. It is this . . . that you have eloquently and simply presented: The A+ Setup.
As I look at your chart from March to the present on the Daily Eur/Aud there is only one thing that stands out amoung the rest; that beautiful confluenced BEOB. Nothing else stands out or looks that clear. One setup during all that time.
I'm sure there are many here that has spent any length of time on this thread can look at that and say,"Yeah, that one looks pretty simple."
But are you willing to wait for it on many different pairs? Your answer is "Yes."
This is what its all about.
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Interesting Jaroo, I saw this as a 4hrly short opportunity PB.
PB has pushed beyond resitance but rejected.
PB has pushed beyond 61.8% around 1.67?
I guess your view might be that shorting the PB after the BUOB is not great risk reward?
The previous bar highs (green) would be a concern of mine with the blue area as the 1st target and may even retest the 1.6600.
But more importantly, the small size of the PB to go against the recent strong uptrend needs to be bigger. You may be able to get away with mid size PB when trading with the trend, i.e. retracements. But for a trend reversal trade or CT trade, we need big Pitbull Bars.
For example, check the size of this bar (BUOB) compared to previous bars on Ben's chart for this CT trade to work.
Oh, I see. Yes that would be a good indication, but I would look for it on the 4 hour or the Daily. I still see a possible retest of the 1.6600 just to make sure its a support level now. we'll see.
Thanks sChaos.
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Geez man! ...I don't like screwin' with other peoples comfort zones, mate.
What I seen with UCad was the un-even bottom (per blue arrow "upset" ...Not horizontal to the one before it) . Don't like them myself....Just myself. ...meaning the pin we are talking about is below it ...totally not 'right'. ...K? ....I wouldn't be surprised if Mike had a similar view to this , actually. ....Being a break out man like myself. (thought he don't use the line chart)
I draw off of the line chart. So I got this... (orange...
Not at all Bundy, I would say it reinforces my comfort zone . . .i.e. what are you trading in to . . "This is Critical" and the like.
I know you use the line chart for PPZs but you use them for trendlines as well. Note to self: Cool stuff.
Jim
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As far as I know it is based on identifying the 61.8% retracement on a large time frame (like Daily or 4hr) and looking for PA on lower time frames.
I've had really good results with it
I believe your right on track with the retracement levels, but he also likes to have add confluences with previous Highs, Lows, PPZs and of course voodoo levels (just kidding.lol) This makes for the classic "KaBoom" Raczek trade.
(I'll use Ben's chart since I can't use my own right now. )
The PPZ, the High of June and your Fib level CkM8. (redline)
So I'm sure Rac is all ready short at 1.6740. lol Any one know the cave phone number?
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My thoughts were that Price would at least hit the blue S/R level before hitting the .8600 or above. ( the black line was my stop loss, .8620) I knew those Highs (orange line) were a "trouble spot", but I had confidence that the quality of the setup would push to the blue S/R level. It did not.
If another setup presented itself like this one, I would take it again and not change a thing. (that's just me. )
Jim
(Sorry, I can't post current charts)
I knew that S/R level (blue) was going to get hit. PA within a consolidation area can be tricky. (at least for me).
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Question regarding the 2&3, why you need to reentering on the 10th on 1.0825? Is it because you close the trade for small loss when it does not had a strong break on the first atempt on the 9th?
Thanks!
PippingM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
No, I didn't play the initial break from yesterday. Consolidation Price Action setups can be a bit tricky due the obvious traffic that they inherently possess. Especially the orange line on my chart showing a strong S/R level right infront of the PB. I will usualy, not always, wait and see how Price reacts to this 1st level that's right smack infront of the setup and see if it retraces.
.
I didn't reenter, I enter only once on the 10th, I may have mis-spoke. I probably meant to say I entered when Price "re-broke" the PB the next day. Sorry about that.
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The second peak was tempting with that pin ( For em at least!).
It's a pity the first peak created a high traffic area in this case. It's taken a lot of trading experience to pass on ones like that and to know easier trades are on there way. There are even easier consolidation trades too. ..where traffic works with you. Knowing how to trade sideways doesn't mean we should abandon our pickiness, hey peoples?
Very true, very true.
I was looking at the 4 hour BEOB Aud/Usd similar to the 4 hour BUOB Cad/Usd. The only differene is that one broke and ran, the other didn't.
But to your main point, the ones that are big (pitbulls) and smothered with confluences are what we are looking for.
Like SP's post on the Eur/Aud : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=43503 It didn't hurt that this BEOB looked like a bearish PB.
How easy was this to manage once this beauty broke. Hiding stops above PPZs.
Thanks bundy.
Jim
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I was going through rac's posts recently. When Nasir asked me to look at the 30 min GBPJPY, I have noticed a nice pattern (as far as I know) of rac's style...so I gave it a shot.
He trades blind entries based on PPZs and other factors as far as I know.
I entered on a blind buy limit order on the lower line. Moved my stop to BE on the second line. Exited around the last line. I get it interesting that the entry and exit were almost on the pip (although it may push up even more).
I think the chart is talking by itself...the PPZs are...
With a 61.8 Fib level confluencing with that PPZ it would be a potential Rac style trade. He uses pretty tight stop losses on his setups, 30-20pips.
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Yep. Seems that also the 50 ret lines up with my BE point. Thanks Jarroo.
So basically the stop has nothing to do with S/R, or something in these cases? only 20-30 pips automatically?
Ben
I not sure totally on his stop loss placement inrelation to S/R, but just to keep his losses small if they occurr.
With all confluencing tools, like Fib levels, they really mean nothing by themselves in the sense of how we use them here. They really need to have another level or tool to have synergic strength. There is a S/R level lining up with the 50 ret that made your B/E point look real good, Ben.
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I think that if being picky with these....trading blinds only based on SR can make good money on any TF. This will be my next project
I know that many times fibs and moving averages will line up, but I get it hard using them.
Fibs - you can pull them from million different locations on one chart.
Moving averages - I see how Jim's EMAs act great as SR, but still can't feel comfortable with it. I am always thinking logically - "what the hell past average of price has to do with rejecting price?!?!". I just can't see any logic in the world using...
Not sure why they work either. I do like the longer term MAs like Jim.
But the main point is that when they come together at a PPZ level they can add alot of strength to a PA setup.
The 1.5800 PPZ level on the Daily Eur/Cad is a good example. The 1.5800 is covered with Fib levels and long term MAs; 365ema,150ema,(I guess you could add the 200ema, 250 ems, and 324 ema , but that would look a lttle messy. lol) The point is that its a heavily confluenced area for a Rac type trade or PA. Inside Bar in blue. PB in green.
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I am kinder new here. Been reading the thread quietly and following all that is written and i am now at the point where i need to get out of the Break-even position i am in and i thinking the PF will do it for me.........for those of you on the PF, what are your experiences and advise after joining it? If you compared the free stuff here and PF, which one would you route for?
Absolutely, check out the PF. A ton more of James16 and Mike videos and webinars there are simply excellent. I'm not going to lie to you, the PF will help you out greatly. The people there, like here, are cool as hell, I could go on on.
Look, even if its for a month or two. That's what I did. I'm now a Lifetime member, but you don't have to be. It's definetly worth it.
Just my 2 cents.
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Confluences look good, but the baby PB wouldn't cut it for me. An easy pass. I understand that the location and confluences can override the quailty structure of the PA ( meaning the size , shape, etc.) at times, but if you do take a break, I would keep it very tight, management wise.
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Hello, This one's a real beaut. I up + - 100 pips already... a few questions Jaroo if you don't mind:
1) would you sell another lot to profit a bit more futher down?
2)Where do you move you stop to?
I've taken some profit at 1.6536 and moved my stop to 1.6615....
Dave
1. No, I wouldn't sell another lot randomly (if that's what you mean). Did we enter this trade randomly? No. I may look for a retrace off a bounce of the 1.6500 on the 4 hour. But it has to be a high quaulity PA setup on the 4 hour, just like any other setup.
2. My intial stop loss was 45 pips, again I would have cut my loss sooner if it didn't break as well as it did. My 1st half was 33 pips and my 2nd half is now at break even. I do like your 1.6615 stop. That 1.6600 is a strong level as you can see on the chart.
1.6500 is a great location. How Price reacts (meaning PA) to this level will determine how long I keep the 2nd half open.
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Thanks Jaroo, I sometimes have random Ideas.. which will probably lead to me randomly losing all over the place.
yes 1.65 has some strong history behind... and then the 365 day ema is lurking below that...
another random question, I set my EMA for the close of the candle, is there any advantage to using a different setting?
Having random ideas is not a bad thing to have, Mp. Just make sure that you try them on demo first and foremost for a good length of time to see how consistent thoses ideas may be.
James16 uses long term MAs as a confluencing tool, just like Fib levels , MACD divergence, etc. He has been using them for a long period time, but most importantly, he is successful using them. So I use them. But it is important that they are used to add confluences to a level or area, not on their own or by themselves.
You can try different setting and see how they line up with PA. It should be fun.
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eu and uc hit their first targets for now..
and so on and so forth and so on and.....
.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I swear, I don't know how he does it....so many times....to the exact pip.
(and I'm holding my UCAD looking for just shy of 1.1 If we go down from here I'm blaming you Rac man... )
That's the voodoo that he do do.
I can find the heavily confluenced layers that are obvious but I just need to fine tune it a bit more. Which comes from practise, of course.
A great benefit that people have studying the Rac's way is finding great locations and understanding why they're great location. And I like that he doesn't outright tell you about it, you gotta find out yourself. lol
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I'm with Joel. ...Waiting it out. Too many issues for this pair to deal with for the minute. ( and the retarded bit. ...it's bed time. lol)
If you want my thoughts on how much room? ...Enough room to get into profit and start moving stops. Where the stop is likely to be nicely protected. ...That's just me though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I haven't heard it put better.
Those first levels almost always see a bounce of some kind. The question is always is it just a temporary bounce or a full on stop-killing reversal.
If that first level is far enough away from my entry then I have some breathing room to work out which one it is. My stop gets to break even and the trade still has room to move.
If that first level is 15 pips away, well it's going to put me in drawdown even if it's only a small bounce. And I find that hard to handle.
I've had too much time in a cold room...
Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
Exactly.
...oops. ...Hang on ...I mean "exactly" to the rest of what you said.
You see the same thing happen time after time on close range trouble spots:- Draw down ....and with it the realisation that once again you could have waited for a better opportunity anyway... ...either as a better entry to that particular trade with even more reward , or for a totally different trade somewhere else down the track. In the mean time you stress about it while it screws around.
Edit: [i]LOL I think I just repeated...
I haven't heard it put better.
Thanks guys.
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Thank you. Super! Location Location Location again .... I always see people trading daily more leniently but I guess it is just WAITING for the best setups and locations
Thank you
An "AH-Ha" Moment. Feels pretty cool, right tradertt?
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AH, but he does tell us!... one simply must read, study, and understand his 1900+ posts...For those willing to put forth the effort, everything is laid out, imo...now that doesn't mean that the trader will feel comfortable trading that strategy... but it might spark a new, original idea too...
I'm guessing this is what you were talking about anyway...
What did I miss? What was the 1.0920 on the Cad based on? I had the 1.0900ish level, I just didn't know the "ish". Looks like more Rac reading for me. lol
I agree. Another Mike classic post. I'm glad he's on our side.
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Just got to my charts. (Blue is the 150ema on the 4 hour time frame)
To fine tune a given level, lower time frames maybe needed. I started reading (studying) your TL in the PF. Gotta love it.
Thanks Mark.
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Very nice Flem.
Mike's comments on this setup mentioned eariler were well founded and should be take very seriously.
With that said, it's a nice bearish PB off a retest of a strong Weekly PPZ, 91.75 toward a strong bold round number, 90.00. This would be enough to get my attention, but the hard break was the clincher. Meaning a trigger a few pips below the break of that PB (blue) would have to break hard as it did. If it staggered or showed any heisation, a quit and small loss would be my only option.
You gotta love it when they break hard like that.
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The question is... now that it has hit my first 'where is price going', do I take some profits, or give it enough space for a shot at dropping through the floor?
There's some bigass momentum behind it atm.
*edit* wow, those PPZs are alot more pink than they look on my notebook >:/
You know that there's going to be some movement around the 90.00. If there isn't . . . look out below. A continuation of breaking previous day Lows (green line) and it could smash through the 90.00.
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*edit*
bigass 2 day pinbar on EURCAD, sitting on a big ppz, up and back through whatever those EMAs are on my chart (I dont even know where they came from, lol) and heading into more trouble than Kanye at an awards show.
Hard break of the PPZ should give up a hundred pips or so, but definitely too much traffic for me. Fail.
Yeah I saw that 2 day Pin as well. It seems a hard break through that traffic would be tough. I'm sure you remember that teaser PB a few days ago. It was a nice PB off a strong confluenced area, but the break was weak and it went upwards.
Now this 2 day PB presents the same situation. If a hard break occurs, great, it makes sense. If it doesn't, we may be heading the other way. I have found that when a good setup has a weak break, where Price is heading is the other way.
Just some thoughts.
Jim
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I was thinking about your hardbreak and how you want the break to be fast and strong upon trigger.
I was thinking, if I trade on the H4 time frame and take a trigger there, would it be a good strategy if upon trigger:
1) I go down to the M15 timeframe
2) Wait for 3 bars to form on the M15
3) Use Mikes 2 Bar Trailing Stop to trail my stop once the 3rd bar close so that if there is any indecision, we can cut our losses small.
Am I pressing it too tight or what do you think?
I would stick to managing your trade (2 Bar trailing stop) on the same time frame the setup was given, i.e. the 4 hour. A setup off the 4 hour and managing on the 15min is too tight.
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Definitely on the same page here, although my reasoning is slightly different.
I figure there is some momentum to it (judging by the size of the move), but just dont know how much or how far it can go...and there is a ton of roadblocks below. A nice hard break lets me get into it with a b/e stop and freeroll it.. after that, it can do whatever it likes.
Most of the time, you get stopped out, but once in a while...
I'm all about the freetrade.
I understand completly, definitely on the same page.
but once in awhile . . . . to the moon.
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Agreed Mike's comments were spot on as always...what I liked about this was the fakey setup on the 4hr giving it pretty good odds of it being a momentum sell off....= one lot closed at my first TP at 90.193 and the second lot running with the stops at break even.
Nice one Dave.
Fakey on the 4 hour. Was that an Inside Bar fakey?
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For you Rac fans out there (like myself). Don't know if he would have been filled because the white box wasn't hit. Blue box is the Daily PB, nice confirmation if the order was filled.
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Was thinking about your hard break. At which point do you actually say that hey the break is not "hard" and it is time to cut out of my position?
Good question. A nice continuous run without looking back, Ok that's an obvious one. A good 20-30 pips and if it starts to retrace to the break (not the trigger) and retests it. If it hangs around for awhileI may stay with it. But I want it to retest then fall quickly again. Once it starts going beyond the retest . . . dump that b**ch. lol
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What is the Break and What is the trigger?
Thought the trigger point was the break?
Or after typing this sentence a thought came to my mind,
Trigger = 5 - 10 pips below the break for a sell
Is it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
I'm not Jarroo (but I play him on tv)
I assume he means that the trigger is the low/high of the actual bar that triggered the trade, whereas the break is the entry point of the trade. Meaning that depending on your buffer when price turns around to retest, it is retesting the low/high of the trigger bar. Price doesn't care about where your entry is, but the high/low of the trigger can act as an SR level. Which is why it can be a good idea to nestle your stop a little behind break even.
Hope that helps,
Aaron
Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt
Is it the opposite?
lol Good one Tia.
Yeah Tia, I have the Trigger as your order and the Break as the High/Low of the PA setup. Your reasoning is dead on, which is that Price will retest the Break of the setup and bypass your entry (Trigger). Having your stop behind the break (or behind the bar that breaks) can give a little more room to confirm your setup.
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Was messing around with this chart last night, woke up to this:
might be on to something....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icehocey77
just playing some racman retraces, lightbulbs are starting to come on. Scary how well they work.....now just need to figure out a good S/L method and I'll be in business.
Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
PA of solid PPZ and fibs confl and lift off...?
And so on, and so....
Confluence is a beautiful thing . . . . the more the merrier. A little practise on fine tuning and you'll get there.
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Thanks J. You went through that whole post?? Nothing new in that one for most people here!
You would have fallen asleep! lol
Absolutely, the whole post. May not be new to me, but you expressed it differently then I would, so I find something new. It happens all the time with me.
That's why this thread is so valuable to new and older traders. (imo) You may have understood something for so long and someone comes along and presents in a different light. Ergo, lightbulbs above heads.
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And no one in a position to manage tens/hundreds of millions wants to go to their investors and tell them that they made a loss because a swissie pin reversed.
lol. I can just hear the investors on that one . . . ."Didn't you see the traffic on that Pin, you fool!"
Great post as always Joel.
Jim
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Hey guys, newb here (Couple posts, and have read well over 4500 posts in this thread :O )
2 pin bars I have questions about.
(Note my charts don't have fib and I haven't learned enough about it, but I have started demo to get my head back in the charts) On Oanda fyi
GBPUSD- Took this one (all demo account, btw)
Bought ten pips above high, set stop 10 pips below low. Got stopped out.
Trading with the long term trend, (possible pullback)
At a recent ppz. Too much traffic nearby? Am I missing anything with this trade?
Obv it went against...
Welcome aboard atclarkson.
These two PBs were successful. They reached the level or area where we expected them to go, the previous Highs, Lows and/or S/R levels.
I sure you have read that we look for Bullish PB at swing Lows and bearish PBs at swing Highs. This perference is even better if it is with the current trend, i.e. a retracement.
The Gbp/Usd Bullish PB was not at swing Low and the retracement level was not very deep but it did prove itself successful (green line). It had good support level of a PPZ blue line.
The Usd/Cad Bearish PB was not at the highest swing High for a PB that we would like but it was at a swing high retracement level with confluence of a PPZ level.
Once PA breaks we have to be aware that when Price reaches these area of expectancy we have to make the decision to take some off the table and move to break even or take full profit, etc. Yes, even with the Gbp/Usd PB.
But what we are really after is the best case senario, The A + trade. Where the PB is at a deep swing High/Low, huuge space, and penty of supporting confluences. (PPZs, Fib Levels, etc.)
I like the FxPro charting feed because the Daily close is at 5:00 PM EST. (just like Mike) That may help.
Jim
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As you can see two Traffic boxes in you chart and you trade was falling right into them right?
But the black filled box shows us some space.
So does that mean that if price make noise and traffic in a particular area and then make some space in that area our trades are safe then before.
Nicely illustrated nasir.
Yes, absolutely. Trades are safer when there is big space (no traffic) no matter how the space is created. This is what Mike is always drilling into our heads. Swing Highs and Swing Lows by there very creation, have space. This allows our setup to have room to move more easily.
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What do you mean by the bolded text? As soon as my order is reached, I need to move up my stop? How would I do this I only sit down at the computer once a day? (I'm at the comp all the time, but I'm training myself to do this alongside a fulltime job, once i get another)
Thanks!
Although the Gbp/Usd PB was tradable it was not the Ideal (A+) trade we would like to take. So we would have to manage it very tightly or not trade it at all. Meaning I would not place my stop loss at the bottom or low of that bullish PB like I would with an A+ setup.
You could set a limit order (take profit) at the 1st area of trouble (green line) and move your stops up or trail your stops.
demo demo demo, my friend.
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hi Jaroo,here goes one of them breaks you like!! lol
i agree wid this. im on the side lines but only cos im in other trades. i think it could go a long way,
great location, certainly 1.65 may be on the cards??
Gotta love the hard break g_j_.
Why? Because it acts as a confirmation that the setup is correct, for me.
And then if it retrace or retest the break and continues onward, it is another confirmation. (Shown on the 4 Hour and more clearly on the Hourly chart)
1.6500 is confluencing with the 61.8 Fib and the 1.6450ish is confluencing with the 365 ema (black) and 50% retracement level. Both are at PPZ levels, let's see who wins. More confluences with the 1.6450ish level
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Took a look at GU. It is going exactly where I expected in the short term. I am watching this for some PA to determine when I can add to my short. Any thoughts?
Also, I stopped out at BE on my EU.
Que
Possible shorting opportunities at the 1.6450ish level or the 1.6500. These levels have strong confluences with other tools, i.e. Fib levels, round numbers, PPZs, MAs, etc.
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for what its worth, i personally dont discard the set up solely because it didnt break on the next bar,for me the setup can be valid for a few bars after depending on the situation. Aftewr all a good location wid pa and confluence is... a good location wid pa and confluence! and i like to give it a bar or two to see how it developes. sometimes momentum also takes a little while to build and get eveyone on board??
What i dont like to see though is the following bar to close high/low into the trigger bar, this to me is a sign of the level weakening?...
Well said g_j_. I agree totally.
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yep, that is something very valuable i learned from you (and everyone else)on this thread. for me the retest is the best confirmation there is, it always gives me confidence in the trade and makes more relaxed.Also if price starts to waver around the break point after the retrace and fails to continue higher/lower it can give you a good place to get out without taking a full bar loss.
jon
Absolutely.
They are great for placements for tight stop losses. I have taken many PA Retests with a 10-15 pip stop loss that have gone to the moon.
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Hey bro. I saw this as well, but the pin was too small for me. Do you look for lower TFs in cases when the location is good, but no great PA?
I took it on a lower TF by a different style (Ryan). Are you still in it? I think will reserve on the 1/64 which is an heavy resistance area on daily. We shall see
I took two winners and two losers today...but my winners cached a nice R:R so I'm happy.
I will look to the 4 hour and sometimes the Hourly at a good location with no solid PA on the Daily, as with the GU. Although the size was too small it still was a PB at a good location.
Just remember that the higher the time frame the stronger the setup. Lower time frames need more confluences and bigger bars. But all in all, its the location and supporting confluences that rule the roost.
Take the Gbp/Cad, the 4 hour BUOB at a good location, the 1.7400 PPZ level, but it didn't have any other confluences that I could see. So a tight stop and looking for a hard break would be the approach.
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I took it on a lower TF by a different style (Ryan). Are you still in it? I think will reserve on the 1/64 which is an heavy resistance area on daily. We shall see
I'm still in it. I've taken 67 pips off the 1st half and the 2nd half is at break even. I would like to see the daily close above the 1.6300 and then shoot for the 1.64 and 1.6500 and then look for a shorting possibility.
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1.6500 is confluencing with the 61.8 Fib and the 1.6450ish is confluencing with the 365 ema (black) and 50% retracement level. Both are at PPZ levels, let's see who wins. More confluences with the 1.6450ish level
I wish I could post a current Daily chart of the GU with the confluenced areas that I have indicated. Price Hit the 1.6450, almost the 1.6500, and reacted as we thought they would.
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This current Daily pin on GBP/USD is the first one I'd consider taking on my Daily live account in a while.
Pros:
- Trading off Monthly PPZ
- Long term weekly fib confluence
- GBP in current downtrend
- Moving with Weekly Cherry-Pin
- Off 1.6400
Cons:
- Not at ultimate swing high
- Trading in the middle of weekly wedge
- Dollar not too hot at the minute too(rangebound/weak against most currencies)
- Not as much space as I'd like.
Lets see how it goes...
Nicely analyzed Rocket. Your Cons outwieght the Pros in my book.
My main point was that PPZs level are great areas to watch for Price Action to develop and for our Price Targets to reach.
The cool thing about PPZs is that they gain strength when they . . . . lineup with, come together at, merge with or envelop with . . . . . other confluencing tools and/or levels : Round Numbers, Fib levels, 50% retracement, long term MAs, divergence, trendlines, etc.
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In essence, have grabbed all of the posts from James16, mbqb11, raczekfx from page 1 to 2500 of the thread and stuck them into 1 file.
It's like reading book of all their posts.
In this way, we can read through all their posts without clicking endlessly on the nearly 3000 pages we have on the forum.
You'll need WINZIP to view the files.
Will post 2500 to 3000 when we hit 3000 =)
(for those of you who doubt round numbers... woe to doubters...)
This is all thanks to Michael on the PF who provided...
I love these things.
Thank you.
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Yup, well said Jaroo. You're right of course, too many cons(space being the main issue). That being said I did take it on Demo.
Woke up. 135 pips. Bam smack off my ppz zone and the weekly wedge line.
Man I love this stuff...
Bundys charts are awesome! Shows exactly what Im looking for on GU. Breakout of weekly wedge and pullback to ppz/round number ala the Master(Mike!)...
Looking at the 4hr there could be a very nice pin shaping up at a great location. Maybe theres more steam left in this wedge/range?
Lets see what happens...
I didn't take it, meaning I didn't place an order and then I saw the hard break. (darn it. lol)
These not-so-great, sub A trade setups need to be managed tightly, meaning not in the traditional sense of a stop loss placement which is above/below the given "A" trade setup. IMO.
How tight? I'm getting to a point if they have any drawn down over 20 pips (depending on the pair), I'm out. These 2 sub A setups broke hard and had ZERO drawdown. Why should I stay with anything less?
I'm sure Joel and others had a taste of that on the 4 hour PB on the Cad recently.
Just something to think and drool about.
Jim
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I love it when you guys put time into projects like this.
I think you've covered the most useful and consistent posters above. If you're going to add someone else to the compilation make it Jarroo, for sure. He has posted a LOT of consistent examples since he's been here. That'd be very useful for new gals and guys to go through.
The other one from early on would be Habeeb. ...Before the slack bugger put his family first and disapeared (....Yeah...I know you'll pick up on your name mentioned , mate. ).
Thanks Bundy.
Some may say that I got "lucky" with many of those before-the-fact PA setups. But you will notice that the more patient I was, the more consistent I became.
Trading is waiting. (Where did I hear that before? )
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Understandable Flem. It tells me that your being very picky about your setups. A true characteristic of a successful J16 trader.
Watching lower quality setups go to the moon is part of the business. Remember also, that watching the same lower quailty setups fizzel out and die is also part of the business. This was one of many "Ah-Ha" moments for me.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Are thinking of leaving a long order on? You could, and I have done so on a PB, but move your stop up underneath it.
Normally, if I have a trade on, and it is in profit, I evaluate the PB this way - if I would in no way trade it, I will move my stop under the bar to give it a chance to continue. Crappy bars sometimes don't do jack.
If it is a borderline or a good PB to trade, I close the order and if it is a great bar at a great location, jump in on the reverse.
Excellent SP as always.
This is a great way to manage a profitable trade and keep it profiable with room to grow.
If I could add one more stop loss placement when an opposing PA setup presents itself against your trade. Look for the 1st target that the crappy, good or great PA (PB in this case) would reach and hide your stop loss there.
Sorry I can't post charts right now. Maybe dmc (or someone else) could show us if that PB broke, where is the 1st trouble area it would reach? (4 hour Cad)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I would be taking some off the table at the 1.6000, if I haven't already Dale. And trail what's left on the table behind PPZ levels. (green lines is a Daily PPZ levels)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Nice, I have only been watching the majors because of their liquidity, I think daily, weekly and monthly would be safe to trade and watch in the other pairs.
Dale
Thanks Dale.
I guess my question was do you look at higher time frames like the Weekly for the Double Inside Bar formation. I know you like the 4 hour.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This was a nice one - although not a Daily TF trade, it was of the 4 hr variety. Noon local time bar which closed at 4PM was a no-brainer.
Nice size BEOB, formed at a solid Resistance area (a Head and Shoulders - if you go in for that kind of thing) and the size of the bar was sweet. Don't let anyone fool you - size matters.
So now, the trade is up 3R - AND we have busted the 1.6000 cleanly. I had the luxury of being able to move my stops behind the bars as it got to and through that major PPZ.
It would not surprise me if we consolidate...
Nice chart SP.
Your chart also illustrates why we look for BEOBs at swing Highs and not BUOBs, which is also shown.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
The most tempting for me is the eur/gbp. It was rather easy for me to pass on gbp/chf and the nzd/jpy
I am also going to pass on eur/gbp just lack of confluence and uncertainty. I have learned that passing is always better then itching to trade.
Here is where price is likely to go. But everyone MUST trade what THEY see. That is what makes a trader
I was hoping to see a strong close on gbp/jpy which would have increased my confidence all across. That lack of pinbar close. I am just going to watch the smaller timeframes for clues.
Mike
Let's see how they break Mike.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Here are another two examples from today. If My round number is also a very major round number' or a strong price pivot, I just move my stop to BE asap, and let my position ride to the moon. This trade I managed tight because it wasn't more than a round number. It went much further, but I don't care. I played the bar with an half stop, which doubled my position size, and I am happy.
Now, you see my charts and think "wow! how does that kid trade like that?!". Well, I am telling you that I have spent way too much hours next to the computer in...
Great post Ben.
Go, Ben, Go!
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Something I read by Bruce Lee actually spoke to me heaps about this topic.
Martial arts context, but hey, principles are principles.
[font=Verdana]" The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity. (think Jim, Mike, Rac, etc)
Before I studied the art, a punch to me was just like a punch, a kick just like a kick.
After I learned the art, a punch was no longer a punch, a kick no longer a kick.
[font=Verdana]Now that I've understood the art, a punch is just like a punch,...
Be water my friend.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
All this talk of pin bars, i hope some of you got this BEOB??
Nice hard break just what doctor Jarroo ordered!!
Not the greatest of locations and it will run into a bit of support imo about now, but it certainly has its history and its certainly a nice bar!!
jon
sorry if it has been posted allready??
Nice g_j_.
Let's see if Price stays below the 1.5800 and your looking good.
That's the size of a bar we're looking for.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Not sure when you moved to B/E, but you should still be fine. Even if you moved to B/E quickly and you got stopped out, you would still be fine. ( no losses).
Just becareful when you take this approach, because the next one may go to the moon.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Sep 29, 2009 5:33pm (29 hr ago)
A lot of golfers either thrive on the long ball or the short game. Me, I like the long ball, because no one ever oohs and ahs over a putt, but a 350 yard smoker gets the admiration of all.
Are you still with me?
I once hit a 420 yard drive, and rolled it 6 feet from the pin. Hit it with a 3 wood too. It was the Mother of All Drives and the flight was worthy of an ESPN Play of the Day. My friends still talk about it, and the guys on the green it rolled up to waited to ask me if...
Like I said, I'd buy that book.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Looks to small compared to the previous BEB. 1st area of trouble looks good but its real tight to the break of the PB. (if it breaks). Manage it very tightly, if it breaks hard. Or pass on it altogether.
Check out the July 12 BEOB (Pinish looking), now that's what we're looking for.
(sorry I can't post charts)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Saw this slightly unstructured Double Inside Bar on the 4 hour Eur/Gbp. I'm not really looking to add to my position from my Daily PB position. (although thinking about it doesn't hurt. lol ) Just watching it to confirm the downward move, if it breaks downward.
just some thoughts.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
lol, that's how asleep I was - I meant the eurosterling. I think I am going to have to make my girlfriend subject me to some kind of LAPD-style sobriety test before I enter into trades - 'count backwards from ten... now walk this line... okay, you can short the yen now'
And, magically, the hard break came about an hour after that...
Yeah it sure did. Those delayed breaks do happen and of course sometimes they don't.
Hard break, then retest the break. I'm loving it.
Hard break retest beyond the break like an internal S/R (i.e. left eye), is as far as I go.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
i dont post here often, mostly because i have nothing usefully to say compared to the prosss here.
ive been bussy over the week so i havent had time to look at charts
but man i cant tell you how good it feels to pick up a chart ive never seen before, eveball a PPZ u believe is important on the weekly, pop down to daily and c that a beautiful pinbar popped there not a few days ago
and not be at all surprised..lol
Don't be silly piz, we all love seeing charts here on the thread.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
It is not bad, and you could have covered your risk, I think you did well to stand aside as there will be better ones. You most likely allready know this however one trick is to go to a lower time frame and look for a low risk entry and play it that way
Thanks Dale.
Isn't that always the case . . . there are better ones just around the corner.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
you beat me to it!! lol, was gonna post the new low. i love moves like this one, a nice drop...bank some profits, then some retrace, then a drop...move stop to above the retrace highs.....makes it easy enough to manage even for me!!!
i agree, i also think that is the level to watch.
jon
Nice jon.
The level is probably more the 0.9100 level then the 0.9080ish. The 0.9080 level seemed to have more touches in the past. But we all know about those wonderful round numbers.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
hi Jarroo, it seems you are using a trade management style similar to what i have been experimenting with, take enough of the table at a point when you can give yourself a free trade WITHOUT having to moving your SL.
I have been taking 2/3rds off some trades at the same pioint which gives me a small profit and a risk free trade without having to move the SL to protect myself. Price often retests the break point and often lower after the break and so i like to leave my stop where i originally set it untill price has given me reason to move it,i.e...
That's it jon!
What you are doing and what I do is control and manage Risk. We look for the best setups first and foremost. Or highly confluenced areas where we know Price levels are strong and predictable.
I netted 2 pips on my U/J trade that was my worst case senario. Yet the trade had potential to go to the moon. Think about that for a minute. Talk about stress free trading.
It was a tough possiblilty to go to the moon being it a counter trend trade that didnt have much size and the space could have been better but . . . . . So What, I HAD ZERO TO LOSS AND EVERYTHING TO GAIN. (sorry, I didn't mean to yell.lol)
I usually manage a trade as you did jon, but instead of moving the 2nd half to break even I would place it just below B/E to allow for retesting while still banking a few pips. Taking profits at the 1st strong level and moving to break even is not a bad way to go just ask James16.
Letting it all run to the 1st hard target without protecting yourself is risky. If you except that risk and more importantly its a A++ setup.
Isn't it amazing how all management styles work out great on the A+ setup.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Last edited by jarroo, Sep 30, 2009 4:51pm (6 hr ago)
nice trade buddy! i guess it was your order that got me stopped out then!~!??
[QUOTE Jarroo..
Nice jon.
The level is probably more the 0.9100 level then the 0.9080ish. The 0.9080 level seemed to have more touches in the past. But we all know about those wonderful round numbers. ]
lol That level wasn't hidden. It was right there for all to see. Clear and obvious Daily PPZ levels are a power thing. We knew Price was going to react to it. It would have been nice for it to break that level and then become resistence. It still may do that . . we shall see.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I thought this was a great looking Pinbar at a swing low, but counter trend and into big round number/PPZ at 90.00, so I was cautious and closed it early for around 15 pips profit when price stalled at that area. Could have taken a few more pips, that's something I'll have to learn.
It looks to me that you learned a lot right there. Knowing the 1st area of trouble and reacting to it, by either taking full or partial profits and protecting yourself from a potential loss. Let your learning begin after that huge lesson learned.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This might be something. Breakthrough 150, pullback and then a pinbar was formed. We also have confluence from 1.6000 level and 38.2 fib.
Also pretty nice definable support zones. I think ill take it. Comments?
Looks good elking. The Sept 24th Low may give it some trouble, we'll have to see how it breaks. (sorry I can't post charts)
Is this an A+ setup? Would Mike take this trade? The answer is: No.
So IMO, we have to manage this one tightly, meaning a tight stop loss placement (probably just above the 1.6000) and a hard break is a must.
Just my 2 cents.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I used to think that this was lunacy. Just give a trade room to breath and it will pay off - because the bar said so. It took some time, some time off live trade and back to demo to prove to me that this works well for me. BE is a wonderful place to be. I like to get there are soon as is reasonable.
This is of interest to me as well - because I don't do it that way. It is all or nothing for me - why - because it works for me. A seven figure account might change my mind though....
I love reading your stuff Jarroo - you do some things very...
Thanks SP. I'll be waiting for that book of yours as joel suggested. (pre-order)
lol A seven figure account would change a lot for me too. But it's strange, my account has grown and it hasn't changed the way I manage my trades that much. I would like to think that if I slowly move up to a seven figure account, I won't know the difference.
I let you know when I get there. lol
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.