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  #37494  
Old Jul 15, 2009 11:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kk007 View Post
Dear all,

Can anyone tell me why do these things (pinbar, BUOB, DLHC, etc.) work? The explanation may be posted before, but this is such a big big big thread. Please help!

Cheers!
Just another view for you. The reasons they actually occur are numerous depending on each situation.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19711

Best
Mike
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  #37495  
Old Jul 15, 2009 11:59am
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Hey Tom

Congrats on that, that is real good. As you grow your account and as a trader you are always looking for ways to minimize the drawdown. Most traders think in terms of "what is possible a week/month etc". I assure you when you become a trader you really don't look at your trading in terms of what can I make this month. You trade what the market offers. Be it 1% one month or 10% the next.

This isn't directly related to your question but I can see the thoughts for some others popping up some I am gonna re post this link

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25755

Returns are going to vary so widely b/w traders. This is do to account size differences, risk tolerance, etc. 20% a month sustainable is just not realistic, and those are the things that start to get people overly excited and giddy when playing with their spreadsheets. What should really get you giddy is play around with an avg of 2-5% a month as your account size INCREASES with both returns and say you add a little bit here and there when you can. For what its worth when I made that post I was up around 17% and now am up a little over 30% for the year. Some might shiver at this thinking jeez only 30%, I want that a month. But I just try to give the reality here. You will find other traders that I respect up double that I wouldn't doubt it. And vice versa those up half what I am with much larger accounts and smiling cheek to cheek. So you can see why it varies greatly so much. I am very conservative by nature and watch my drawdowns and risk per trade. So forget about goals, or what could be. When you learn to do what you are doing by trading right, the rest takes care of itself.

Sorry if I sound like Scrooge here ! :P

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by fat_tom View Post
Well guys and Girls

Its a big day for me as I have finally got my account backup to what I deposited initially!!!

I have clawed back from a 18% drawdown in a month!!! - can't belive thats all I've been hanging around doing/learning things the J16 way!!! - seems like a lot longer

I got myself into the initial drawdown stage in less than a week!!! - I was on route to becoming another Forex statistic until I found myself here

Last 5 trades have all been profitable and 2 are still on the go!!

3 important things I've learnt from here in...
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  #37497  
Old Jul 15, 2009 12:01pm
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Originally Posted by jimboo View Post
Good thread this, lot's of common sense trading taught here, take your time, wait until the A1 reversal trend pin comes right on previous support or resistance and WHAM, you're in, as you have traded from the trend extreme chances are you will beable to trade to to the otherside of the trend or if you get a warning bar (buob, beob, inside bar etc ) but so far I'm having incredible results, if I keep up the success rate I should be netting 40/50% a year trading weekly and Daily charts!...
That's terrific and welcome to the forums I see this is your first post. Hopefully you will post more here

Best
Mike
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  #37517  
Old Jul 15, 2009 2:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sohail786 View Post
@James


"NO ONE HAS EVER MADE IT IN THIS BUSINESS WITHOUT SOME RELIABLE METHOD OF TRADING CONSOLIDATION AT EITHER BREAKEVEN OR BETTER".


how do i determine whether we are in a range market of trending market?

do you mean a tight range e.g. 200 - 300 pip range or a larger range say 500-600 pips

sorry for the dumb question, but its always confused me as to what traders mean by ranging market.

thank you for the golden nuggets

sohail786
You can't as much denote a consolidation via a pip amount because different pairs, move different(atr and whta not). Basically when you look at your chart, any chart you can see price starts to box off into consolidation. If price goes from left to right and looks all choppy. Welcome to consolidation

Here is a chart with blue boxes being consolidation. Notice the variance in size of the consolidation, and how fluid it can still be

Best
Mike
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  #37519  
Old Jul 15, 2009 2:25pm
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Originally Posted by albchr View Post
That's a great visual explanation Mike. Thanks!
And you can visually see S/R at its finest, many times these boxes land on top of other boxes. Really is very clean simple stuff. And every chart has some variation of this. Some more clean then others.

Mike
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  #37524  
Old Jul 15, 2009 2:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnykanoo View Post
ok first off everybody that warned me about the usdcad was right. it did drop like a ton of bricks and these types of observations are great for me becaus now i have to analize why it didnt reverse where i thought it might.

second, Jim I am so confused with your money management posts??? Please I don't mean any disrespect and I sort of grasp what you are saying but i really disagree with you and im sure it is my lack of experiance.

lets see if I can explain......
you say one trade is an anual salary for most while mike says 5% a month is...
You are a bit confused here John. While Jim might have a catastrophe stop of 3% he isn't worried about R:R. So 4-5 trades a month might all add up to the 3-5% range total. Not PER trade. (also I have no idea what it adds up to, but that is just the general idea). And also 6% a week is not going to happen consistently week in week out do the math, if it was a probable or likely thing you would be a billionaire before you could blink (see previous post by me today).

Hope that clears it up for you and glad you are keeping an open mind it will help you a lot

Mike
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  #37530  
Old Jul 15, 2009 3:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimboo View Post
Sorry for the bright colors, but it reflects my personality!

As you can see I made a swift profit from the Pin Bar at the top. I like to mark all the Round Numbers with a Horizontal line, and you can see the move stopped right on one!!
Well done on your first trade jimboo! I got stopped out at b/e on this bad boy!

hope you Post more charts

Mike
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  #37583  
Old Jul 15, 2009 7:30pm
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B all your stuff is seriously at the top of my list when I have some time to test stuff. But I swear there are not enough hours in a day anymore

Guys/Gals read everything B has ever posted, please.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
A Past Blast....

[color=Blue][i]Hi folks,
As some of you know I have, only recently, moved to a MetaTrader Platform.

Therefore, I am now without a few of the Tools I used to carry in my toolbox. {funny how learning a different language can, sometimes, make you feel lost.}

This is not something that you would be likely to use on a Scalping Method but moreso on one of those Trades that take off & you are up 50P before you know it.

Here's how it works. Let's use a Long Trade as an example.

I Buy EUR/USD @ 1.3500 & before I know it I'm UP 50P.
Q)...
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  #37586  
Old Jul 15, 2009 7:56pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Thanks for the endorsement Mike but asking members to read ALL my posts would be tantamount to asking them to read something that contains {guestimate} 60% chaff&laff:40% crop.

I said CROP. with an "O" not crap.
and I would still tell them to do it
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  #37595  
Old Jul 15, 2009 8:29pm
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I am certainly not saying you can't keep your risk constant. I am trying to shatter a few myths. The first and most common is the X% per week(example your 6% a week just need 3 good trades a week at 2% risk per trade). It just isn't the real realities of trading unfortunately. Do some do it, I am sure, everything has its exceptions. Is it where ones mind should be when learning to be profitable. Defintely not. Most people who risk 2% a trade will find their accounts drawing down rather quickly with these goals.

Can you keep your risk constant no matter your account size? Absolutely, I never said different. But many people will not trade 3% of a 2million account, vs a 10k account. Why? Well were talking about a lot more money. Again theoretically everything you said is fine and good. But when it comes down to it, things are just different. It is real money were talkinga bout here.

The person who trades at 2% risk now. Say they go through drawdowns of 20-30% throughout the year. The difference mentally b/w 20-30% drawdown on a small 10k account vs a 1mil account is very different. Will you be the exception. I don't know that answer.

Also as far as the risk to reward, that topic has been beaten to death so much I am not going to go into it more then this. Your risk reward means nothing as long as you are profitable. Someone who takes of a few pips here and there is fine if they are consistently winning and pulling in money like that. The myth that you have to go for 1:1 or 1:2 risk to reward, is nothing more then a forex "slogan". It is whatever works for you.

Early on in a trading career a lot of concepts seem great, and they are fine to stick to. But as you get your hands deeper into it you realize that you must still have the reality of what you do. If you are comfortable trading 3% risk of a million dollar account, kudos to you and there is NOTHING wrong with it. But there is also nothing wrong with reducing your risk as your account grows(which is what most people I know do), to help with those fluctuations above a certain amount. And every real trader I know(that is someone with a larger account), has done something to protect themselves(be it cut risk down or what not).


Hope that helps
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnykanoo View Post
not to beat a dead dog but....

i am afraid i don't agree with you Mike and maybe im a visionary or maybe a dreamer or what but for me i don't usually risk more than my reward and I dont think that will change coz that is my style so im back to the risk 2% reward 2% its simple math and a simple concept the real question is of psychology coz i don't think you need "brass balls" i think if you have a proven system and clear data supporting your real factual numbers over time than how come you can't compound your way all the way up?

It boils down...
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  #37605  
Old Jul 15, 2009 9:27pm
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Originally Posted by johnnykanoo View Post

sorry ive taken way to much space on this matter, john
You haven't taken to much space! Like Scott said above this is exactly what this thread is for IMO. It is that place where so many of us can relate to your story. I actually made my most progress when my dad did something similar back when I was in high school and I was like, wow what an idiot how could he lose his account in a few days that he built up so nicely. It set off my quest to become a trader. The thing is I get so many emails a month, with the same story you just said. And it wasn't with 1k to start, were talking a lot of money to start. This thread is just a place for all of us to share our experiences, and what has worked for us, and what we know is likely the best path for the majority. There will always be many ways to skin a cat in trading.

Thanks for sharing your story, and also for being open to both sharing and getting help. Those are very good traits to have. In fact those that seem to get stuck in one spot in their learning curve always have one trait in common. They are stubborn! But I don't believe anyone has built up a wall that can't get broken down enough to give them a shot(no one can promise you will be profitable).

Thanks again
Mike
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  #37661  
Old Jul 16, 2009 12:54am
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What is Graph Paper? Is that a website or new mt4 broker.

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
ahh the brilliance of this old fart is beyond description.

bemac actually remembers rulers, pencils and graph paper like i do.

what would you guys do if you had to chart like we used to?

i still actually do it for fun sometimes.

ken sells great graph charts so i dont have to make them.

i love that guy. i swear i love that guy.

talk about taking it on the chin for several decades.

undeserved in my opinion.

solid human being in every respect imho.

ken who?

i aint sayin.

someone else can.

jim







jim
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  #37666  
Old Jul 16, 2009 1:06am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Did I get the wrong Ken?
no lol
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  #37742  
Old Jul 16, 2009 2:32pm
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Originally Posted by caseyjw View Post
Ok... I am in a trade (demo account,) Long on the GBPUSD Pair.

Entry at 1.6442
S/L at 1.6390
T/P at 1.6545

Please any comments/critiques are requested, I want to learn!!

Thanks,
Casey
Hey Casey

I assume you are trying to trade the DBLHC on your chart? If so a few things. Firstly for a DBLHC the close is very low on it even though it is still above, but b/c of its poor look on a 4hr timeframe this makes it tough to want to trade. The lower the timeframe we move the strong our signals should be. Also we want to see these bars at swing lows points, this is at a swing high point. Especially when you are new to this material stick to the prime location it teaches a lot about trade mgmt that these bars at swing highs are tough to grasp. The problem with trading this bar at the swing high is you are now trading into the most recent swing high point. So at this point price might find resistance and come back down(or resistance coming into 1.65.) This would need a quick move to b/e at best.

So my basic comments would be to firstly follow the j16 rules to start on the daily. OF course I can't reinforce that with more then words, so my second general comment would be to all the lower the timeframe the stricter your entry criteria should get.

Hope that helps, let me know if you h ave more questions
Mike
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  #37745  
Old Jul 16, 2009 2:48pm
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Originally Posted by caseyjw View Post
Hey guys, Sorry I wasn't quite clear with what I was doing here.

I was trading off of the daily charts, if you look at the daily chart that I posed I saw, from the low of June 8, 2009@ 1.580 drawing a fib to the high of 1.6740 on June 30, 2009, price retraced and formed a bullish pinbar on July 8 which poked through the 23.6.

Then on the 13th of June price retested that point and formed a Bullish outside bar, and 3 days later broke the 61.8 and found new support there.

I only looked at the H4 and H1 to time my entry, and got more positive confluence...
Hey Casey

What I am going to say here will save you a lot of thinking. Which is a Great thing in trading. When you see that bullish pinbar, if you believe that is an entry worth taking. Stick to trading JUST that time frame. That is place your buy above the high(with a buffer), and place your stop loss down, and then just manage that trade from the daily chart. James calls it day trading a daily chart. What this does is simplify the whole process. It also will get you in at the start of the move as opposed to chasing the move down later. Now their are variations to all of this, but after doing this for awhile now, it is a simple and effective method that works the best. Forget about dropping down, it will add a lot of paralysis to your analysis by trying to process all that information. It can be done in one easier cleaner way. This helps make it easier to know what to look for, and all ends of trade mgmt easier.

Best
Mike
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  #37748  
Old Jul 16, 2009 2:59pm
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Originally Posted by jimboo View Post
Hey I'm back boys!

Here's a trade I took 50% off as I got a bit worried because it hit Resistance. Naughty Resistance. Well I'm still in for the other 50%, here's hoping for it to 'POP'
Hey Jimboo way to go, do you mind if I springboard with this from my other posts to Casey.

Here is a trade Jimboo took. Now we can all talk about what is good trade criteria to us. That doesn't need to be the focus once you understand this material. You can trade whatever is comfortable from testing. So let us use this BUOB.

Firstly what I was getting across is what Jimboo is doing. You don't need to move your timeframes from the one you are on. The information will always be there. Here is a BUOB, that is in traffic(or a sideways market). How do we know things are more sideways? Well I drew our box with the pinkish horizontals lines. So price is sort of doing one of those blue boxes now(see previous post here)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=37517

Just for visual I attached a similar chart.

Now what you see after this is. Ok so things are sideways for the most part. Meaning we aren't in a ton of space. So where is this likely to stall on us? I drew a blue horizontal box at the PPZ. This is where our flip and even most recent bar high was at. At this point. As James would say. Are we going to take a full loss on this trade? I think it would be crazy in this type of environment(box). So you get your stop up at least to b/e, but maybe some just minimize. And look what happened. Price would have never came back, and you could be potentially riding this back to the top, lock in some more maybe under todays low etc.

So this was just a good way for me to explain my prior posts with visuals

Mike
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  #37749  
Old Jul 16, 2009 3:00pm
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Originally Posted by caseyjw View Post
Thanks guys!

Mark; much more clear on your chart.. thank you

Mike; I like savings in thinking, reinforces the "wait for the A+" setup, and I think I was looking for reasons to take the trade instead of what Jim teaches to look for reasons not to trade.

Casey
Bingo! Don't chase. These markets aren't going anywhere. The good trades will come , they ALWAYS do.
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  #37756  
Old Jul 16, 2009 3:12pm
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Originally Posted by caseyjw View Post
Thanks for the explanation Mike, visuals always help to drive the point home. Correct me here if I'm wrong, but I found the right signals I just wasn't in the right location.

Btw, my trade just dipped below my entry.... so I guess I was lucky to get 15 pips out of it... I think though that the more valuable reward from this trade is to learn what I did wrong.

Regards,
Casey
Well if you mean that daily pin, I would say it is similar to the NZD I posted above. I would still say you want better bars then that. You want a nice long nose that protrudes away from prior price(the gbp/chf on the same day was the nicest of the two for me personally). The DBLHC on the 4hr was too sloppy in my opinion you would want much higher close on that one.

You will get there it is just screen time, trial and error, and taking the right steps to ensure you "live" long enough to have a chance at the finish line

Best
Mike
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  #37795  
Old Jul 16, 2009 6:15pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
To the Daunted:
Would you rather that it be 2 pages long?
Man you are so right and the poster that said if you aren't willing to go through it or want the quick summary you aren't serious enough. I agree 100%. When I found this and other info, it was NEVER long enough. So I re-read it a million times. This is the hardest easiest thing I ever learned to do.
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  #37797  
Old Jul 16, 2009 6:17pm
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Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
They did, and still do.

RM
RM shouldn't you be cutting someones belly open while trading. Here is a man that does BOTH!
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  #37844  
Old Jul 17, 2009 4:25am
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for what it is worth. James does not even use trendlines. Just horizontal support and resistance. I only personally use Extremely clear trendlines for breakouts.


Mike
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  #37867  
Old Jul 17, 2009 12:16pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
I am starting to use the support and resistance, the thing is I am a gun slinger, I take trades that look like crap to everyone else but make me money and to me each indicator that will make me close a trade out too fast such as resistance and support I dont really mess with. The BB and RSI show me if it's over-extended or not, if it goes over extended I CT it on the 5min as a hedge.
Yeah you have been at this for awhile, so it is a different story. Once you know as much as you do it is only about doing what works. Period.


I ALWAYS stress in this thread CLEAR PA, CLEAR S/R, CLEAR TLS, etc, b/c most people are so new to this getting "fancy" ends up a disaster. If you stick to the clear stuff and give yourself a chance to learn it as you go along. Everyone has their own "twists". That is why people in the pf see my intraday and are like HE DID WHAT! Then realize it is me combining what I know, not that I am being a bad boy or anything. LOL

I just try to get the new traders, that have lines every which way and then find some horrible iffy pin and trade it and then scratch their heads about what they did wrong, a fresh perspective. Sort of cleaning out your house and what you think works. Starting from the basics like James teaches. Also another reason why we try to get the new traders away from the lower timeframes. Not b/c a lot of us don't trade them, but b/c we know what their accounts will look like if they START there.

End mini rant for weekend :P

Mike
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  #37871  
Old Jul 17, 2009 2:09pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
So true Mike, If I was JUST starting out I would do PB's with S:R ONLY and print out all my trades as well as take a screen print of it when I put the trade on because the ones that fail look different after they fail, hell I still do that today just to get better and make sure I did not miss anything

Like this It lost but it looks good so no biggie..
Oh man do I remember the days of just staring at charts, printing each bar out, staring, taking them with me every where. Looking at every little detail, making a bajillion(yes that is a number amount with the amount of charts and data I put together) spreadsheets/screenshots/printouts. I swear I never slept and my eyes were coming out of my head, but I wouldn't trade any of that time for anything. I couldn't sleep b/c when I closed my eyes I guess from staring at the monitors the charts were in my eyes and head, and I would see flashes of them, keeping me up(insomnia). Same thing happened with my poker days, cards would just flicker everytime I shut my eyes. Sleep deprivation to say the least.

Hopefully others follow your lead ryan

Mike
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  #37879  
Old Jul 17, 2009 2:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Great advice here, I will be capturing my trades entry and exit via Jing and annotating them, before and after. After all daily/weekly TF rifle trading will afford you that time. To look back and learn from each trade for me is great advice , thanks guys. Hey Mike and Ryan, im on page 70 (Sept 06) of the backside of the thread, you guys haven't appeared yet? Seeking Light and Peter are just posting for the first time..sorry if I am giving a running commentary of the thread.. ill stop that.

Tac
hehe I was hiding in the background for awhile. Then decided to register to FF thinking I would never post, picked a name from a long long time ago(again didn't think I would post). 10k posts later LOL
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  #37907  
Old Jul 18, 2009 1:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
You appeared in Oct 06, 10k posts? Is that counting the PF as it only says 2800 (only!! as if its not a ton of posts even at that)
I have about 3k in the PF, probably 3k from the old PF, and it says almost 3k here but we all lost about 2k when they updated this site they chopped off some of it, so yeah about 10k LOL
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  #37908  
Old Jul 18, 2009 1:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr View Post
Hi folks,

I don't ask a lot of questions but I've been wrestling with this for a while now.

In your opinions, Is it better/easier to use a line chart or bar/candle chart for finding the major PPZ's?

For the most part, I use weekly charts for finding them (since I trade from the 1H & 4H). It seems the line charts tend to average out the "close" and not include the wicks. (Of course the amount of this changes as we go down in TF). In the first of these two pictures (weekly GU) the SR line is set to the top of the line chart. The second clearly...
Hey Christopher

You definitely can use lines or bars to find both. Some people like the cleanness of the line chart. I personally like the bars, so you can see all the highs and lows and not just the close price. It helps to find those PPZ battle areas cleaner for me. We must always remember that these are zones too(sometimes they are smaller then others), but sticking to the big obvious zones is what helps me.

Best
Mike
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  #37983  
Old Jul 19, 2009 1:49pm
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Originally Posted by tac View Post
Ill be trading the daily charts for the next 3 months (at least)....
Either of those are perfectly fine if that is what is comfortable. The most important thing I stress to new traders(or new to this material). Is sticking to the obvious. So If you want to use the most obvious areas on the monthly/weekly/daily. That is fine. Another thing is to draw from the timeframe you are trading on. If you are looking at weekly charts, stick to weekly s/r(ppzs) etc. If you are on the daily, stick to daily, etc. I do that for one reason. Not b/c it is the best way. Simply b/c it allows me to keep things segregated in a way I can process SIMPLY and efficiently in my own head. I also use major areas to trade off of, and the less major PPZ(s/r etc), to manage trades once in. This prevents paralysis analysis for me and having lines filling up my chart. Keeping it simple, is my motto. And if there is one thing you will notice about my trading like bundy said as you work through this thread. I simplified, and tighten up the screws on this bad boy


Best
Mike
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  #37992  
Old Jul 19, 2009 3:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stoli7188 View Post
Been searching around a little on FF and google but haven't found much yet....
start here stoli
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=8177
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  #37994  
Old Jul 19, 2009 4:09pm
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Originally Posted by clockwork71 View Post
Good luck with that. Taxes are getting worse and more complicated every year. Sometimes I wonder if we aren't better losing, and taking the trades as write offs?

yes they are more complicated then if you say trade futures, but it isn't bad if you find a decent accountant with experience in financial markets.

I have plenty of write offs already LOL but anyone who is self employed it feels like a beating come tax time
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  #37996  
Old Jul 19, 2009 4:18pm
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Originally Posted by pipmax View Post
Hi Bryan

I?m a newbie too and it was more a question than a ascertainment.
Now when i see your view of the NZD/USD charts, i?m not sure about my short.

Thanks
That's ok. That is part of it. Learning and demoing while you get used to what works and what doesn't for you. There is a long trial and error period. It is unavoidable. You can give 10 traders on here the same chart, and you will get a range of analysis, and none is necessarily better then the other, if it is a trader that has their own "method". When I say method, a way they formulate the material into a workable(ie they earn actual money), that works for them.

I see the chart as consolidation, around 6500 and would like to see a break higher then a pullback turning into support at former resistance. Until we leave the boxed consolidation, there is not much for me to do as a trader

Mike
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  #38014  
Old Jul 20, 2009 12:04am
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Originally Posted by vijay s. View Post
Here is a quick 'day-trading-off-the-daily' trade (as Jim calls it) I took. Two pin bars off a big round number after a break of the round number. Took full profit at the first resistance area-- roughly +45pips.
Hey Vijay

Well done, but just to clarify for yourself and others, this is actually two consecutive insidebars. This shows price consolidating up so a breakout is usually a good bet. They are both in the shape of a pin, but technically speaking not pins. Often times though the look of a pin can help indicate potential breakout. Just wanted to clarify for those that are new.

Well done I like the lines on your chart :P
Mike
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  #38019  
Old Jul 20, 2009 1:50am
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Hi mbqb11,

Thanks a lot for your videos on james16 site. I understand most of your material, except this one. You went against a Pinbar during a post-breakout pullback trade. And you was right that the Pinbar was not successful in making a second pullback. Personally, I find it is hard to go against a pinbar.

Do you mind explaining a bit.

Many thanks,

kk007
Hey KK

Based on my picture and drawings(although i don't remember specifically this trade), it is based on my breakout trading. This is where I am waiting for price to breakout of a pattern, and upon the pullback am looking to enter the trade. So in this case the trade was to go short off that BEB looking bar. That pinbar, is the bar after I was already short, and then of course it was using my trade mgmt to exit the trade. The trade mgmt for my breakouts is usually something to let things run(since it is a breakout), a common tool I use is that volatility indicator the BAT.

Hope that helps

Mike
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  #38062  
Old Jul 20, 2009 12:04pm
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kk007,

I have to agree with you... not that I am in anyway experienced like a lot of guys here and I don't play 4hr timeframes yet but I would be looking at that area as a first TP or at least a suitable place to move SL to BE.

but I'm just a newb so my opinions probabely don't count for much!!

Fat Tom
This is exactly it Tom. The idea is, be aware of these areas. You then make a decision accordingly. For me if I am strongly confident in the area and bar, then I will let the trade run more and trail. But the less strong an area I will do "something" at these PPZs S/R areas.
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  #38067  
Old Jul 20, 2009 12:14pm
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Thanks batesmotel,

Do you really think the PPZ marked as minor (This one is orginally marked on the video)?

I personally don't think it is that minor. And it worries me. Yes, one solution is to short just below the PPZ and a bit worsen the R:R.

Nevertheless, to me, a very nice setup is one makes me no worry.

I have this problem probably because I am not experienced with this kind of scenarios.

For the senior members, like James and PeterFM, it may be obvious that the PPZ can be easily broken, (when they look at the bigger picture, perhaps)...
Hey KK,

As a follow up to my previous comment, when we arrive at a PPZ like this it is ok to have 1 trader that says, well I better get my stops to b/e and let it play out, and also ok to get another trader that lets the trade have a bit more room to breathe. Neither is more right then the other IF both are both able to recognize that if price stalls out there and reverses they still understand why. The recognition part is the most difficult for most people, and then it becomes screen time and experience to begin to put things together.

In the beginning it all seems so, woulda/shoulda/coulda But then all of a sudden these things begin to really click and you can make these decisions during your trading.

Best
Mike
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  #38072  
Old Jul 20, 2009 12:21pm
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Originally Posted by kk007 View Post
Thanks for response. Mike and Tom

If I trade this way, does it mean I have to usually trade with Risk/Reward > 1? Isn't it not recommended in general in the world of trading?

Cheers,
kk
Ah the classic R:R one of trading MYTHS that you need to do "this or that". The real thing one has to do is make money. Now you can make money with all kinds of R:R . The bottom line is if you are taking a lot of small R:R trades then you just have to have a higher winrate. The lower your win rate the more flexible your R:R can be. There is NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING that says you have to have a certain R:R. That is pure myth, a trader, trades to make money, nothing more nothing less. The difference is if you are going to go for a high winrate, is understanding the material and not taking iffy trades that will wipe out those small winners. There is nothing wrong with taking a quick profit on a high probability trade. Even I do it. I don't really worry about R:R. I trade good setups, and manage them the best way I believe at the time. As James says it comes back to account size. Although I am no where near his size account as mine has grown, so has my criteria and trade amounts decreasing, as well as my willingness to hold a trade. My willingness is to make money.

Hope that helps, that is exactly what this thread is about, to shatter a lot of these myths that are in crappy books or posted by people who really don't understand what the focus of trading is

Gonna dig up some old posts that fit in here and edit this and add the links

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23711

Best
Mike
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  #38074  
Old Jul 20, 2009 12:25pm
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Originally Posted by Basber View Post
Mike,
What Period Do You Suggest For EMA In H4 And Daily And Weekly TFs ? I'm Getting Confused About It. Should I Find It Out Myself What Works Best For Me And My Style, Or There Is A Better One For This Setting ?
Thank You For Your Time And Support

Regards,
Basber
Hey B how are you?

I personally don't use any EMAs but the most popular ones here are the ones James uses 150 ema, 365. No EMA is "better" because of what an EMA is, but usually most people I know that do use EMAs use a larger one(like the 365, some the 200), and then a smaller one(like the 150 or 100), etc. None will find "more" s/r then the other really, but it helps to find the agreements in price. Since I started I found they don't really add to my trading enough that I need them there, so I strip it away and keep cutting down to the basics that makes me money personally. Others will find different of course.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #38079  
Old Jul 20, 2009 12:37pm
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Thanks again Mike,

I am a bit shocked to hear your this opinion. I don't know what I can say for a moment.

Yes, it is very true that the trading world is full of myths. Perhaps, I have to unlearn a lot. This thread really changes me.

K.K.
Yeah there is a lot of BS out there. The end game is you either make money in a way that will work over time or you don't. The flexibility learning to read a chart allows for many methods to work that FIT the trader. Look at the range of traders we have on this thread alone.

If you can keep an open mind(from the looks you are), and have a willingness to put in the time, you can have a shot at this.

Mike
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  #38088  
Old Jul 20, 2009 1:31pm
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That's ok....
let's see if we get a pullback to our PPZ and former breakout area for any good PA here
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  #38090  
Old Jul 20, 2009 1:33pm
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Originally Posted by tac View Post
Im seeing a lot of great charts from Habeeb (from first 100 pages of the thread), is he still around? His last post was a while back so im guessing not? Is he only in the PF?
yeah habeeb still posts in the PF from time to time. When hes not he is enjoying his ice cream . That I know for sure!
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  #38095  
Old Jul 20, 2009 2:04pm
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Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
Haven't seen anyone post this so I thought I would give it a try....
Hey Alye

Just my view, that although we are approaching a good PPZ area, the size of the bar is very small to warrant a trade for me. I like to see conviction in the size of a bar. Big bar = bigger reaction = more strength if the location is good. I did mark off with a pink horizontal the first problem area for such a small bar

Mike
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  #38100  
Old Jul 20, 2009 2:38pm
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Originally Posted by NateTheGreat View Post
Ive been long in this trade at 0.6330 since the Daily BUOB on 7/14, currently up 200+ pips, SL moved to BE. I figure I'll let this ride, it will probably pullback as you suspected, but im hoping it will continue up to the 61 fib ret after a short pullback. Time will tell.
way to hold onto this one Nate. And we know we can't take a loss at this point so it has a potential to really turn into a great trade if we can breakout of the box(highs) were in. I do suspect a pullback of some sorts before that happens. If not the likelihood for a move higher then sharp move lower increases IMO. Let us know how you end up managing this

Mike
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  #38136  
Old Jul 20, 2009 6:38pm
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If you're a fussy old bugger like me who proof-reads every thing he types before posting.

My replies end up about 50 posts away from the one I was responding to .
LOL peter, I need to take lessons from you and proof-read my typing. I have scanned back on some old posts and I wonder how people can make it out sometimes
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  #38141  
Old Jul 20, 2009 6:48pm
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Originally Posted by PeterFM View Post
added to the faster-than-a-speeding-bullet cursor on your videos I decided to teach myself how to trade.

I'm sure if I could understand what you're saying half the time and could watch your vids without getting hypnotised I'd be better than I am now.

Still, you're nowhere near as bad as Bemac - now that's like trying to decipher Egyptian Tomb Writing .

You know I love you really
LOL I tried Peter, but my hand just moves at the speed my brain is actually going. I am lucky I can even form sentences when I open my mouth
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  #38143  
Old Jul 20, 2009 6:51pm
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Originally Posted by PeterFM View Post
Apart from missing the period at the end of the last sentence that paragraph was faultless.

.
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  #38162  
Old Jul 20, 2009 8:31pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
lol

You mean there is another way of looking at the chart? I may have been looking at charts wrong all this time.
people often ask me how to trade without a chart. Somethings i keep secret, but here is the real way to view your charts once you get it setup right.


Now you can actually touch your pinbars!
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  #38169  
Old Jul 20, 2009 8:38pm
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Haha! You know Mike, we could have all kinds of fun with that line!

K.I.S.S.
was waiting for it
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  #38171  
Old Jul 20, 2009 8:39pm
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Originally Posted by tac View Post
I'm surprised they haven't got charts with 3d pin bars with shadows, glows etc, might make it too much like a video game.
someone should create it and package it up.

"Now trading is more ALIVE then ever" easy pitch
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  #38176  
Old Jul 20, 2009 8:43pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Thank you for sharing this new Mike's Holy Grail Method with us. I have some questions.

1) Do you put the glasses on at London open? What time do you put the glasses on?

2) Can you explain your entry and SL for this method? Do you enter on the blue lens or the red? Do you place stop behind the glasses or in front of them?

3) Can these glasses be worn on the lower timeframes or will I go blind?

4) Is it possible to use yellow and green lens filters, changing to blue and red when daily stochastics cross over and RSI enters overbought conditions?...
sorry but I use an EA 3D glasses mode
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  #38272  
Old Jul 21, 2009 4:27pm
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I dont think you understood my bit about money management....
Yes everything Tac said is right. There is always going to be that trade off. If you are taking lots of small winners, you are going to end up having a higher winrate. You will also end up with that occasional loss that is bigger then say a handful of your smaller winners. But you must trade through that. The problem is, most people end up trying to do too much. That is they take lots of these little winners, then they take a big loss. Try to make that loss up back not the way they were getting their wins, but with a larger winner. Then they take another and the hole begins to get bigger. This is where time experience, patience, discipline and all those good attributes come into play. The trader with that 90% win rate knows that hey it make take 5-6 winners now to make up that loss, but they also know that this is no problem with the way they attack the markets. If you are not comfortable with this then you have to decide if giving your trades room to run is a better option, then comes into play how picky you are being on your entries etc etc.

So I think what Tac said is a good starting place, find out if any of your mistakes seem to fit in with what is above, and really evaluate your trading. Lots of the problems I see are usually a form of something I mentioned above, and it simply takes demo and practice to work through and gain the experience and confidence in your trading.

off the the gym

Mike
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  #38293  
Old Jul 21, 2009 7:46pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
chart
yeah Similar scenario we talked about last night in my chat. Look at gbp/usd if it makes another attempt to break higher and makes another higher high we will have massive divergence. Then it becomes a waiting game
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  #38321  
Old Jul 22, 2009 1:22am
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Originally Posted by initex View Post
Hello! Thinking of this BEOVB on CADJPY - nice retrace of trendline, BEOVB at the swing top...
I had been watching this huge BEOB but when the next bar didn't break my rules say to cancel. Still could be the Bar in play though. For now at least

Mike
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  #38325  
Old Jul 22, 2009 1:37am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Momentum building maybe?

or a possible Breakout PullBack . . .maybe to much form fitting.
lack of follow through always gets my attention. I would still be biased with that big beob thinking short, but once that high is taken out, that shows a good deal of strength until proven otherwise. I am in full attention mode.
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  #38328  
Old Jul 22, 2009 1:48am
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Originally Posted by CkM8 View Post
Also note that this pattern happened all across the board in multiple pairs and none of them came through yet.

full attention mode [/on]
yes very observant, and I made the same observations. Stand tall
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  #38393  
Old Jul 22, 2009 10:58am
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Originally Posted by bfd View Post
[size=2]I think thats the problem....to be successful it seems like you have to wait for the best setups which only come around rarely and if you only have a small account then you're only going to make a small amount of money on each trade.
So if you end up doing say 1 trade per week then thats hardly any profit. It seems like its only worth using this method if you have a large account so that you can wait for the perfect setups in the knowledge that each trade will net you hundreds or thousands.
So maybe its the case that success with this method...
I know I have posted on this topic before and what I am going to say is no different then what has been posted but in a different way.

As I see it there are some basic types of individuals

1. Someone learning to trade the right way.
2. Someone learning to trade the wrong way.
3. Someone who can trade and has a small account
4. Someone who can trade and has a big account.


Individual 1, is doing the right things. They are not yet profitable, they understand that to get there it is time, practice experience. Doing all the proper steps. Demoing to prove a method, being smart, understanding no quick riches in this game. They focus on a sound method. They know that this is a long term business and even if it takes them 10+ years to eventually build an account the future is what their focus is.

Individual 2, is doing multiple things wrong. This might be learning to trade with a real money account that is way to large for them to learn on(not a couple 100 bucks). They are taking every method they find, trading, when they have some losses moving on. This individual sees every method and unless they can extrapolate some crazy amount of return out of it, either tries to tweak it to get to that point, or moves onto the next. This individual wants as much money in a quick time. They can't see what is reasonable and what is unreasonable, b/c that line does not exist in their head. They are always thinking about their few thousand dollars and how can they springboard that. They are still in gambling mode.

Individual 3, is now consistently profitable. They now understand all the factors that go into trading and trading consistently. They have put their methods through the gauntlet and now are working on building an account. They are not content with their account size but know that consistent returns compounded will grow over time. They add to their account when they can because they are growing it. They are treating it like a plant. They ignore the urge to up their risk that puts their methods in jeopardy. They ARE a trader, but they can not trade and pull money from their account. They are in building mode. This mode can last however long it takes to grow their money, but it is worth doing with a long term out look.

Individual 4, is a trader with a large account. This trader is no different then trader 3 with their methods. They are sound, consistent, discipline. The difference now is individual 4 is on a large account and every trade they make is very good money. This helps individual 4 stay disciplined. This is the goal we all want.

I just tried to put this all in perspective different. I think so many of us just want to go from step 1 to 4. Their really are a lot of steps in between but I think making it really simplistic might help some others remember what their goals should be. If your goal is to try to turn 1k into a million a year then you have to understand you are a gambler and if that is fine with you that is fine with me. But if you want to get to the point to be a trader and learn to grow an account, then please do things slow and steady and you CAN get there.

Early morning rant for me

Mike
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  #38395  
Old Jul 22, 2009 11:09am
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Early morning? Did you move to California already? Or is 11am rise and shine time for Mike?

Seriously though, this is great stuff and encapsulates the stages of the learning curve and the pitfalls of every stage. We're lucky to have you here dude.

Now go shower. It's nearly lunch for pity's sake.
I get up around 930 these days(hey I went to bed after 4), that is a lot to get out of my mouth before 11(1058)
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  #38407  
Old Jul 22, 2009 2:30pm
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Originally Posted by forexngo View Post
How hard it breaks the minor s/r 85..i don't know if momentum has been builded enough
Yeah the 85 is the battle line for me. But all those bar lows where your last sell is, when that breaks usually that is good for a burst because of all the bar lows, the orderflow underneath gets blow up
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  #38415  
Old Jul 22, 2009 3:11pm
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Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
Yeah I would personally want the 2.00 to be piercing the PA itself to trade it, (Obviously the bar itself is more of a Neutral bar) Because if price comes back up at least your stop is protected.

I can't count the number of times pierced round numbers helped me out.

EDIT - @ Mike

Are you testing the MB trading version of Metatrader by any chance ?
I can't count the number of times either

Nope to your MB question, when it's all ready to go bug free count me in

Mike
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  #38418  
Old Jul 22, 2009 3:32pm
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It is not bad right now, nothing serious at all wrong. Some of thet data is messed up, but not horrible
great I had just PMed Jig with the same question cause I haven't had time to check on it or keep up with the thread. Looking forward to the release then

Thanks SP
Mike
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  #38420  
Old Jul 22, 2009 3:51pm
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Originally Posted by G550 View Post
Hey Mike-

Had this broken, what would have been your expectation for taking profit? Looks like some trouble around 83 or so; maybe slightly higher.

Thanks,
-G
Hey G, I had a zone around 83.45 PPZ area). I am about to run out will post a chart when I get back

Mike
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  #38441  
Old Jul 22, 2009 7:27pm
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
Hey Storage:

I agree with you....ECN is nice in order to trade the news...essential really...

I've actually seen inverse spreads...ie....where you are in the + when you open a trade.

More often than not, you can't beat the spreads that they offer (although Oanda is giving them a run for their money)...

What I realy like is that

1. They execute your order fast...immediately... in a volatile market (at news time)...and

2. they benefit when you win your trade and not vice versa (benefit when you lose) like MM's (Market Makers...eg...fxcm ibfx,...
agreed Greg
SP is 100% right too. Every broker has its good and the bads. Most traders I know have more then 1 broker for many reasons. Often to play off their strength and weakness, safety issues, etc

Mike
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  #38451  
Old Jul 22, 2009 8:09pm
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Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
Is not like no one does trading. It's lower volume and liquidity which may cause either extended movements, have a look on the chart of EUR/USD and check how many pips the pair moved in the last 2 wks of December. This is possibilty one-so if you catch such a runner, good for you.
Possibility number two it causes price to swing quite a lot without direction so you have warning signs -like this one described by Ghous on the GBP/USD two opposite pin bars within 8 hrs. If you add it...
Yeah I always get asked about my "summer trading". To be honest I still consider it business as usual. I trade good setups and manage my trades. If a month is slow for MY method, then it is slow. I don't over analyze. We have had summers that have more action then the rest of the year. Generally I might trade less just due to trying to enjoy life a bit more. But june has been my best month to date, and so far july my slowest, but such is trading. Just another "day" at the office so to speak

Mike
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  #38454  
Old Jul 22, 2009 8:31pm
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
Perhaps you're right...but I was under the impression that you pay the spread to buy....and you also pay the spread to sell...(open and close of a position)....But I'm open to correction on that, since I haven't paid as much attention to that as I should....

Any other expertise on that from the James16 flock?

GregB
Hey Greg

Yeah you only pay the spread once. In your demo account open and close some different positions, buys and sells. So you can see. then you can look at your transaction history to see it clearer.

Mike
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  #38455  
Old Jul 22, 2009 8:32pm
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Heck, sometimes there are slow weeks as well where there are hardly any good-looking setups! To me personally, these are the most dangerous times because there is a tendency for me to "force trade" i.e. taking crappy trades. I am addressing this little problem of mine by looking at other markets such stocks (US Stocks). Will stick to daily timeframe, as my timezone would not allow me to trade intraday with US stocks.
I honestly think it is the down times, or the desire to "trade" that is what prevents a lot of people from coming close to making it. They just get too antsy, feel the need to always be in a trade. I know there are going to be people reading this that know they are doing this, and they will continue to do it. Until they decide to stop beating themselves up. I am not saying their isn't a learning curve to get there, but those that have been around long enough know it

Mike
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  #38465  
Old Jul 22, 2009 10:29pm
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
Question:

Ok....I knew this SOB CADJPY was heading north...there was a PERFECT Weekly BUOVB...BUT, the Englfing Bull Bar closed right on the the Monthly Resistance level and round number 85.00.

Can I take a Long in this scenario? GOD, I wanted to go long...but I refrained myself...I reckon it has approx. 423 pips worth of legs before encountering any major resistance...

Maybe it's not too late...or perhaps I can catch a limit buy if I get picked up at 85.00.

Comments would desperately help here.....

GregB
Hey Greg

Careful here, your bar is not a BUOB. For it to be a BUOB it needs to have a lower LOW then the previous bars LOW. This bar is simply a BUB, or a buillish bar, not normally a bar that we would trade and take a signal off, but just use for information.

Being that we aren't at a good swing low that has created some space, this isn't the ideal area for a BUOB if it was one. We can see right now we are sitting right at the first potential trouble area for us to get over.


Best
Mike
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  #38468  
Old Jul 22, 2009 10:42pm
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
You're right...it's not a technically proper buovb, but it is a very close dblhc that has boounced off of a major support level @ 78.89 and settled in on a close right at a major resistance @ 85.00....

Must we forfeit this orgasmic long setup just for a few pips short on a dblhc?

GregB

Depends on the trader, I personally am very picky about my bars as you probably know. So that + the location of this one would be an easy no trade for me. Logic might still see with a decent certainty where price is headed. But when you are trading to make money it is more about being as certain as you can be with you personal method.

Sort of like those iffy pins we get, that I might pass on but another trader might take. If both traders know what works for them we can't say one is right over the other. But I would still say location on this one is far from ideal as we want these bullish reversals at swing lows(for the most part).

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #38470  
Old Jul 22, 2009 10:51pm
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
Ok...I gotcha point....

My real question is this....if we have a picture perfect PA that just happens to close smack dab on top of a major ppz (support or resistance) area....can we take this trade and assume it will break the ppz since it is sitting right on top of it?

GregB

My criteria for this scenario is if it closes above/below my marked area. So if I am watching in this case the 85 area , if it closes above that area, my bias is strength. So I then try to limit it down to a more specific area and see where we close in relation to that. I am very big on this type of thing, specifically with my lower timeframe trading to

Best
Mike
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  #38476  
Old Jul 23, 2009 12:10am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Observing the trade management style of James16, learning the Price Action stucture of a highly confluenced setup from Mike, noting the high layered confluence of a great location from raczek, etc . . . sure can make for a great trade.

The tight trade management style does make for more relaxing trades for me as well.
Don't forget the discipline of Jarroo in there
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  #38537  
Old Jul 23, 2009 11:12am
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Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
That USDCAD was as Mike would say it "A money make"

Good trading bro
LOL apparently I have a lot of catch phrases and I don't even know it :P
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  #38565  
Old Jul 23, 2009 12:21pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i feel better now ghous as your one of my favorites.

PLEASE UNDERSTAND SOMETHING GUYS/GALS.

i am not trying to be mean to chris.

i hope the best for chris but i want chris to come out of this freakin fog he has created and be the guy i remember and respect.

if he needs money hell i will give him some or help him get started.

JIM


For those that know Jim on a more personal level like me, know that he will literally bend around backwards to help you. No matter what it is. When you do that for someone, give them everything, and then dump all over that, do you not expect Jim to be emotionally upset.

Others like SP have said everything I want to say.

Jim is a great man, he deserves a hell of a lot better then to be treated this way. Most of us would not even be here trading, doing what we do without him.

Mike
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  #38572  
Old Jul 23, 2009 1:04pm
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Originally Posted by marcelnyo View Post
I have something to say about what I have learned from this group/thread, although I'm not the very diligent of people here that can concentrate fully on what they're doing and what they love, and what they believe is the true path to achieve their dreams, I realize I'm not special in any way but this place has became the place I go to when I feel I don't have anywhere else to go, every time I got into a big problem, a depression, I can just see and read the posts and even with my poorly written english, replied to some and have received further...
Marcel we love you buddy Take care of yourself
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  #38595  
Old Jul 23, 2009 2:32pm
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Originally Posted by forexngo View Post
Hey Tac,
If it will break the blue box above,Tac?

Will you give me your comments on CADJPY & CADCHF, please!
Thank you
fxngo
interestingly enough look what is right above at 1.00
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  #38607  
Old Jul 23, 2009 2:48pm
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Originally Posted by forexngo View Post
Thanks Mike!
Woh...how come it moves like that
i do expect it will touch the 0.90 and start to turn back....but seems....NO WAY!
Price is drawn to where the action is. Action is where orderflow is. Orderflow is concentrated in certain areas(psychological areas). This is why we are able to profit as chartists from these footprints

Mike
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  #38612  
Old Jul 23, 2009 2:51pm
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Originally Posted by salisa View Post
thanks for that...
a lot of pairs are getting a top heavy feel. From a h4 perspective we have some divergence, no clear signs on my charts(large bars), and coming up on a PPZ

The 1hr is showing more divergence and that is a BEOB, but again pretty small one, so not something to get carried away with in my opinion

Best
Mike
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  #38649  
Old Jul 23, 2009 5:01pm
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Originally Posted by Bryan View Post
Can we give a pip or two difference leeway on DBLHC's on higher timeframes?

EURCHF and USDCHF, DAILY have a two pip difference on each (on my feed anyway) Couldn't this also be considered a form of confluence?......when one currency is acting in the same fashion across the board?

Forgive if a stupid question. I don't see this mentioned on any of the price action handouts.
Yep this is all correct Bryan. For me the lower the timeframe the more strict I am on the differences, or the great I want to see something look. For example a handful of pips on a daily/weekly are a lot less troublesome then a handful of pips on the lower timeframes.

And yes when correlated pairs are showing the same thing often it is a tip off of the strength of a currency(ies)

Best
Mike
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  #38657  
Old Jul 23, 2009 5:22pm
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You have summed up the TRUE spirit of this thread and what James created. I know he loves to hear this, and that is why these little things hurt so bad. He cares that much.

I say it all the time, but you folks where English is not your native tongue blow me away. Perhaps cause I spent 8 years taking french class and can't speak a word. But man that is impressive how well you speak it.

And your chart shows what we must do as traders. Wait in the bushes with our rifle, and then react. No shotgunning(bit your lip Elmer Fudd haters)

Take care
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmax View Post
I?m one of the total newbies and i?m very sad about what?s going on there against Jim.

When i first time open this thread and go on reading this genial stuff and learning in two weeks more about trading then i did it before in last two years, i know this will be my chance to get through.

Then i?ve some Q?s and don?t trust me to post because my english is ugly and i think nobody will be interested to answer my "newbiequests".

A few day?s ago i try to post and to ask and i got a quick and very nice feedback from Mike and some other guys here....
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  #38659  
Old Jul 23, 2009 5:35pm
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Originally Posted by sumakianlee View Post
hello every one, , i have read james 16 thread till page 293 , and i plan read entire thread < the whole thread > , no matter how long it take , and i want to know if i have read entire james 16 thread <without joint pf > , can i understand well about pinbar ?? sorry i dont joint james16 pf group not coz i dont want to pay money , but 100 usd is very2 mean to me, thank for your time to answer my question, and sorry about my english,
may god bless you
regard
suma
Hey Suma

Did you get my email? Yep you can definitely get it from this thread. It might take a bunch of times through, but many have conquered it this way. Don't forget along the way to take it SLOW. And demo and prove it to yourself, no need to lose ANY money in the process

Best
Mike
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  #38663  
Old Jul 23, 2009 5:42pm
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Originally Posted by cheelu View Post
Based on the recent posts in this forum, its absolutely clear that pf is more of a money making business. All talks about helping newbies is just a reason to cover up. If not why even have a private forum? all the material can be uploaded to public forum which will help thousands of people.
If I told you how much of my day I spend answering posts/emails/PMs/doing webinars/videos/chats, personal phone calls trying to help others , a lot of which I do paid or not. Would you not think that person should be compensated? Obviously people do and that is why you see so many happy "customers". I call them happy people(people that have a chance with REAL stuff). I usually don't even bother defending this stuff, cause there isn't a need. I guess the spirit of this bizzaroo world I have stepped into the last few days made me.

Trade on.

I really need a beer tonight.
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  #38691  
Old Jul 23, 2009 7:37pm
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Originally Posted by dengzhi View Post
lol mike i love your icon!
don't ever change it.. it nicely summarizes your successful trading style!
LOL well actually he holds a shotgun as has been pointed out to me before. But I just tell everyone I got him a shiny new rifle
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  #38695  
Old Jul 23, 2009 7:44pm
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Originally Posted by datogio View Post
a lot of traffic but got the plan how to short it, lets see how it works
Yep nice clean chart, those make me smile when I see this. Because that means your head is clear and you can allow yourself to learn to trade.

Agreed trafficy setup

small blue first trouble, bigger blue obviously the main battle line

Mike
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  #38697  
Old Jul 23, 2009 7:47pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
The swissie is one of my favourite crosses. It is just so...schizophrenic.

Will it close as a big pin bouncing off daily support/resistance?
Will it stall, form an IB and consolidate for a while?
Will it just sit back, eat chocolate and make cuckoo clocks?

NO ONE KNOWS.

(if it does, I would get my sto to be quickly... if it can break the traffic around 1.0700, it should be good down to previous support at 1.0620ish)

Attachment 277892

The 1.7 area has a pretty strong flip there. All that bunched up prior resistance should act as support, or at least give it a problem if it wants to eventually cut through. When a pair is this choppy (as swissy has been), my mind immediately goes into, how do I protect myself mode if I see a trade that is worth taking

Mike
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  #38700  
Old Jul 23, 2009 7:52pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
I'm not quite sure if I want to be the Respondent, the Recipient or the Responder... I'm lost. I don't know which way to turn.
turn to the bottle B, a nice glen perhaps,
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  #38730  
Old Jul 23, 2009 9:25pm
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First beer down! Much needed

You all are the best

Elmer loves you

No 1 beer doesn't get me drunk wise asses
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  #38734  
Old Jul 23, 2009 9:31pm
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
The 1st beer is just to get my lips wet...a barley hor'dourve you might say...lol

GregB

LOL

my friends called said whos driving tonight. I said do you hear this "slurrrrp" NOT ME!
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  #38741  
Old Jul 23, 2009 9:43pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
That is the now the last image in my head as I get ready for bed.

Thanks a bunch Matty
JEEZ YOU KIDDING ME LOL. Now I have to double the consumption
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  #38793  
Old Jul 24, 2009 4:54am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Not a flule salisa. PA can be a powerful thing, but on the hourly chart we need more confluences to give strength to our setup. Your BEOB (blue) is off a swing high and recent highs, which is good. Its not at the peak or top of the swing high but there none the less. Meaning its crowded by other bars (candles). Off a nice round number(78.00). No obvious divergence. A hard break is what I would look for next. Which was nice.

The green BEOB. At swing high, at a peak, divergence, round number (77.00). Nice hard break and next bar break. A better...
That massive clear divergence is KILLER when you just wait it out for a nice PA bar.
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  #38796  
Old Jul 24, 2009 5:04am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
So not only do you plot ahead strong areas of heavy confluences (i.e. Round numbers, fibs, etc) but developed divergences while waiting for PA. Very Nice.
Yeah I mean everyone knows my love for round numbers. But certain scenarios become great pa areas. When you have that massive divg + a double top scenario forming, it is nearly money in the bank if you wait for PA. The last BEOB on gbp/usd I got out at breakeven, b/c I took my chances for a larger move. But no way you could have taken a loss on that one.

I love the divergence where it is impossible for that oscillator to catch up before some sort of retrace.

Mike
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  #38799  
Old Jul 24, 2009 5:15am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
You mean this one Mike.
yes, I thought that might have been the "bigger" retrace coming. I was wrong, and stopped out at b/e. We look to be having another shot at it. Patience is the key here
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  #38850  
Old Jul 24, 2009 1:51pm
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Originally Posted by gman29 View Post
Well after lurking in the shadows in this thread, observing, learning and soaking it all in. In light of the recent "commercial" developments I would just personally like to thank everyone that continues to put in their time and anaylsis to help make people better traders. I myself blew out 3 accounts from over trading, over leveraging and just a lot of over everything. This thread and the people in it have taught me how to plan my trades better, be patient and be a better all around trader. Even though it isn't a huge amount I am trading, I am...
Awesome ! Hope you do stick around here at the least I am sure others could gain a lot from your take on things too

Congrats on your success

Mike
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  #38856  
Old Jul 24, 2009 2:13pm
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Originally Posted by DarkDays View Post
So... I have not read through this thread. But I just joined the private forum and am enjoying the content there a lot. What is the opinion of the PF from the people in this thread? Do the people in the PF post here as well? I plan on reading this thread in addition to learning from what is in the member forum...
Yeah you will find a lot of us posting both sides. We all are pretty addicted to this stuff LOL

See you on the other side, hopefully it leads to some BrightDays
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  #38906  
Old Jul 25, 2009 1:06pm
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Originally Posted by tricello View Post
Hello everyone,

I've been reading this thread for a few months and I've started to get consistent results with the approach. It's my first post (probably) and I would like to hear your opinion on this chart.

It's an IB on the daily EUR/JPY that I would short on the break.

Reasoning:

1.-Downtrend TL
2.-strong resistance
3.-365 EMA
4.-Possible H&S formation

The management would be to move stop to BE when it reaches the first dotted green line and then trail it with a 2 bar TSL. Take full profit at the second dotted line or when I get stopped...
Hey Tricello

Welcome to finally posting

Your post all sounds very sound to me. Just my personal take would be, yes we are clearly at a larger resistance PPZ around the 135 and stalling. But this pair has been stuck in a pretty large sized range and chopyy. There is more chop underneath to give this trade problems. So if you see this resistance as strong enough to hold then waiting till your green line hits of course is a trade mgmt decision. I just tried to show a chart with where a lot of bar highs and lows are located to give it potential problems. For me I would prefer to trade away from these areas or I should say I am more lenient with my mgmt when trading away from these areas.

Have a great weekend!
Mike
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  #38975  
Old Jul 26, 2009 2:57pm
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Originally Posted by NateTheGreat View Post
Hey, last night I was up until about 4am watching webinars. Mike, keep it up man those conferences are amazing, cant really ask for much more IMO.

Anyway I had a long post typed out ready to go but my computer froze and im kind of ticked off that happened. Anyway im gonna sum it up quickly with my thoughts on this, and was hoping Mike and anyone else can give their thoughts/opinions.

Seems like weve got a wedge breakout. Its resistance turned support at the 1.75 level. Its off MAJOR 23.6 and MINOR 23.6 fib levels. Its pulled back already after...

Hey guys Nate asked this in the PF but since he posted here too I thought I would put the response here and my chart

Here it is


Hey Nate

I do like your chart, this is nice clean simple potential. But the breakout and pullback has not occurred yet. So I drew a chart for the scenario I would be looking at. A breakout and pullback potential shown on my chart. This would be the scenario I would look for. As of now the trendline is "holding" and being respected. Breakout could be a nice one if we get good PA.
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  #39006  
Old Jul 27, 2009 9:07am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hello everyone. I am new to this business (but don't worry, I learn fast )

Now If we zoom into the daily chart, we have a Doji. Can I treat it as a bullish pin bar?
Daily chart:


Ben

Hey Ben Welcome to the thread

We treat dojis as neutral bars, or indecision bars not as pinbars. These types of bars show us that there in indecision in the market place but we do not use these as signals to enter. Not standard james16 at least. Although your logic is still sound, the actual bar itself would be a bar to show us to wait for more information and see what happens from here.

Again welcome and keep posting with any questions along the way

Best
Mike
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  #39027  
Old Jul 27, 2009 11:51am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hi Mike,

Thanks for you reply (:

Thant makes sense. Do you trade only PBs (combined with other factors of course)?

No PB = No trade for you?

Ben

Hey Ben

I trade all the different bar variations in this thread. Pins, Outside bars, DBHLC/DBLHC, inside bars, and multipl ebar high/low patterns as well

Best
Mike
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  #39032  
Old Jul 27, 2009 12:11pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
There we go!!



Ghous.
perfect charts of what is to be expected
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  #39049  
Old Jul 27, 2009 5:56pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
In my experience, and I think I've heard Mike say this too, the learning curve for trading is not easy and not smooth. There are days you think you've got it, and days you think you'll never ever get it. Remember Jim's story? 8 years of crawling under a table in the foetal position because he'd blown another account.

Time, practice, patience, dedication. And perhaps a degree of stubborn commitment to get this no matter what it takes. They'll help you through these times. You're giving yourself time, which is great. Now use that time wisely.

And...

Yep I did say that. To be honest, I remember a few points where I really thought I had it. I would never have to think "do I have this?". Then I had about 2 more of those episodes. B/C there are just things that even once you are successful you have to experience and get through yet again. Take the trader who has been trading live profitable for 6+ months. How does that trader react on the 7month when they have their worst losing month? etc. I spoke to a few people, and I said that if you can get yourself to become a breakeven trader, you really have a shot. Most people just keep digging before they can even get to that point. If you find yourself hovering at b/e you should be damn proud to be there, and then keep pushing for the last leg of curve. I think I can identify these points more closely b/c i get such a wide range of emails now that are so similar on their points of the learning curve it is more easy to say, OK I can see this person is more here then here.
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  #39052  
Old Jul 27, 2009 8:11pm
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Originally Posted by sas View Post
Great links to a very crucial point. Thanks for those Josh
next click each members name above and then Find all posts Read and re-read




Mike
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  #39058  
Old Jul 28, 2009 12:12am
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
I like this nickname for Mike. I may have to shout "HERE COME THE FUDD" at the beginning of every webinar.
that's fine don't be so late next time pacino
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  #39075  
Old Jul 28, 2009 4:57am
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Originally Posted by giotto View Post
Hey guys,

I have been following this thread for some time (Jacko's as well) meanwhile trading as a FX prop in an investment company. Big advantage is that I don't need to try it on demo, but directly test all with real money, so psychological part is always involved in any trade. After all that years trading is nice to find a feeling that PA is what makes my trading successful even if I fight with same "enemies" inside, as you are. Hopefully, I will contribute with some own examples and honestly I look forward to learn more from others as well.

Happy...
Welcome Gio look forward to you sharing your experiences as well

Mike
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  #39111  
Old Jul 28, 2009 10:59am
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july been nice and slow for me :P

Anyone catch this, not a market I trade but man that is a BEAUTY!
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  #39132  
Old Jul 28, 2009 1:04pm
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Originally Posted by dmc View Post

Any thoughts on Trading in the Zone? or emotions in general lol.. I dont know I am just bored. Even though I am at work. Shush
Good book for those that never thought about the psychological side of trading. I found it pretty obvious but that was probably coming from a poker background and what not. My copy is in mint condition maybe I'll give that away next to someone who PMs me with why they need that book. Winner gets it

Trading is mostly emotions. Controlling your greed, fear, and all the emotions that come with executing your trade plan. This is why you could give someone the keys to the mint and they still might not be profitable. Emotions are what drive the market, and make it possible for us to trade it in a meaningful way as traders.

Those who are looking for a rush are in the wrong venture. And I have found many people simply derive excitement from clicking buy and sell and then wonder why they aren't profitable. I don't know if we ever conquer all the feelings. It still hurts to have a few losses in a row. I still make mistakes b/c I want more. But slowly you push down all those feelings b/c you can recognize the symptoms. Sort of like when you feel a cold coming on you start to drink more fluids, sleep more, eat better. You can feel that fear creep up and you know what to do. You can feel that greed up and know what to do.

My emotion this month that I have had to fight off is being patient. July has been very slow for me. So when that urge to trade creeps up I can recognize it and say "No!" . Simply because I know if you give into those feelings you are not doing what one needs to do to be consistently profitable.

Mike
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  #39137  
Old Jul 28, 2009 1:11pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
mbqb11,
wow, very generous of u, Sir.
would u send it for free to the Philippines?
I have an ebook of it, but definitely won't mind having your copy. please do include your pic & your autograph. I'll add it to my precious trading books collection
I will send it anywhere in the world for free, but you can't have a copy of it ebook. Someone who hasn't read it. Plus you are too far ahead supreme (that is a good thing)

But Ill send you my autograph
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  #39158  
Old Jul 28, 2009 5:54pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
Hit the 5min then lol Maybe I could setup some kinda realtime chat deal so the scalpers can all chat, no retards just ppl that play and add something to it oh and people that win too . Is that skype thing any good Mike?
LOL no 5min for me I am very content here

What skype thing? The yugma? yeah yugma works great

-Mike
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  #39164  
Old Jul 28, 2009 7:17pm
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Originally Posted by johnnykanoo View Post
guys i dont know why but the au pinbar isnt showing up in my pic??? I tried to delete the post but it didnt delete so i dont know. there is a pinbar forming but it doesnt show up.
It looks like you are saving it in some low resolution format. Did you right click the chart, then click save as picture, then active chart(as is), then save it as a .gif?


as for Aud/usd on my charts, the close is above the previous bars high so not technically a pin on my feed. Might be on some of the later closing ones, but a small bar for me too.

Mike
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  #39165  
Old Jul 28, 2009 7:19pm
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Originally Posted by Basber View Post
Hi Everyone,
I Have Problem With This Digits For My Broker (ODL), I Don't What Happen That It Changes From 5 Digit Number (1.xxxx) To 6 Digit Number (1.xxxxx).
Is There Anyway To Turn In Back To 5 Digit ?
It's Look Like This (Picture) Now. I Want It To Be Like 1.4161 Not 1.41610.

Regards,
Basber
Hey basber,

I don't think there is any way to change that display yet. The actual integration of the 5th digit is a good thing for traders on a side note

If someone knows a solution please correct me

Mike
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  #39168  
Old Jul 28, 2009 7:46pm
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Originally Posted by alyehoud View Post
It's server-side. Can't change that or the servers' time settings, unfortunately.
yeah that's what I thought with mt4, oanda lets you get rid of it and they call them Pipettes LOL
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  #39258  
Old Jul 29, 2009 11:45am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
I thought I was good at math, and you pricked the hallucination Kk



I seriously need to take my math classes more gravity.

Not sure how you arrived at the 100 pip on daily - 20 pip on 1H thing, but I was pointing out at something obvious without deriving it from a mathematical aspect.

Ghous.

Yeah Math is all fine and good. It makes us understand the basics. Ok so if I go for small wins, and my losses are larger then my wins, I need a high win rate, etc.

But when it comes down to it, the trader has a sound method that makes money or doesn't. A high win rate method won't work for a trader that fails to achieve a high win rate. You only get to know yourself and your trading after you make a large amount of trades.

And yes it is achievable to have winrates of 90% plus with this material. It is also possible to have winrates of 30% and make money. No one right way. Making money is the right way(all things such as MM taken into account of course!).

Mike
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  #39261  
Old Jul 29, 2009 11:53am
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Originally Posted by kk007 View Post
Really true, Mike.

When I look at the historical chart (or observe the price movement and setup realtime) the success rate is very high. But when I actually demo trading it, my success rate is hehehe...

Thanks.
Only with time and experience, and even then the reality is it isn't guaranteed or even close that you someone will be successful. But you have to keep at it, and play of your strengths, and try to find your weaknesses or where you are going wrong. Usually some are bad habits that can be eliminated, that usually gets us to b/e traders.

Mike
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  #39263  
Old Jul 29, 2009 12:03pm
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Originally Posted by fat_tom View Post
last 11 trades and no losses (counting 2 BE here as winners if you like) - so high percentage winning rates are possible with J16 stuff!!!

lets hope it continues!!

On a side note I am feeling fear of loosing (as we all do) this must be harder for the average J16 trader to cope with as he doesn't have as much practice as with other trading methods!! - victims of our (J16 + crew) own success?

ummm I'll mull over that one...

Tom
That is terrific Tom! You should be extremely proud of that accomplishment alone. Not easy to get too.

We have to always remember that it isn't about 50% a month BS. It is about consistency and that consistent avg % gain can really grow an account along with compounding and adding. I think if many people reading this can switch out of the "now now now" mentality and shift to the bigger picture their trading will improve greatly b/c their patience and discipline will grow.

Yes Tom, you will have a loss sometime. It is part of what I was speaking about the other day. Even the profitable trader(newly profitable), has hurdles. How do they react at their first loss? First losing month? etc. Those are the trying times that are the most crucial. If you all read what Jeff posted recently about when he takes a loss or doesn't feel right he doesn't even trade. That is nearly impossible for most people, to say you know what forget it. I will wait till my mind is right. This might sound like voodoo to some people, b/c all our lives things are much more structured then that.

Tom try to picture how you will handle the loss. What emotions might come up. Try dealing with them now. Some will say, oh you can't picture yourself losing or you will. BS. You will take a loss. And if you don't deal wtih the emotions head on, you will sit at your desk with a sour stomach and a feeling that will probably spill over to your next set of trades leaving you with the feeling you are back to where you started. Then as time goes along and you see you can consistently do this, and power through the losses, they become less hard to handle. But I don't know anyone who doesn't get a little bothered by something. We are Human trading discretionary methods.

Mike
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  #39265  
Old Jul 29, 2009 12:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fat_tom View Post

Thanks again your posts always give us newbies a serious insight to trading!

Tom
Tom, no way you can consider yourself a newbie. In fact what you did many more "experienced" traders are not pulling off.

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  #39270  
Old Jul 29, 2009 12:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aarangio View Post
Hi ya Everyone..

just wanted to get some input to see if i'm starting to get the jist of this..

weekly chart- now bouncing off strong resistance 1.0750.. looking for a reversal..

daily chart- reversal bar..bouncing off strong weekly support..MACD divergence..next resistance 1.10..

cheers..

Adrian
Hey Adrian

Your analysis is fine, but I would just be careful that bar is not a traditional reversal bar(j16 style). We would call in a neutral bar here. This is definitely a prime area to look for a trade, but I think waiting for more clear signals is the better plan

Best
Mike
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  #39276  
Old Jul 29, 2009 1:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
absloutely.. Its these reasons I realy want to ride this down..

wife has just be online shopping again....
lol better double that lot size bud
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  #39278  
Old Jul 29, 2009 1:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
This is public service - be very careful, you could end up like this:



HAHAHAHAH
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  #39285  
Old Jul 29, 2009 2:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Ok Im sorry Ghous, Ill just stick to posting my losers, anyway im off on holiday, tomorrow (vacation for the Americans :-p) for 2 weeks, Greece.

Im hoping there is a setup tonight that I can put on and let it run for 2 weeks, come back from holiday and......
Congrats Mark and enjoy your holiday. Don't force anything though
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  #39292  
Old Jul 29, 2009 3:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryan View Post
DBLHC on daily. Shaping up to be one on weekly also.
With double bottoms???
Caution: newbie analysis
Hey Bryan just be careful though for a DBLHC to be valid the close needs to be HIGHER then the previous bars HIGH.


Mike
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  #39340  
Old Jul 29, 2009 9:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dhh View Post
james and jarro,
both of you posted this chart(jarro on #39271).

the macd made a lower high, so i thought the price need to make a higher high to be a divergence, but instead it made a lower high on chart. this is how i understand divergence.

just an overlook!? just want to make sure. if not pls correct me.

thanks

edit: no chart for the reply, so i was refering to james' #39293
Hey dhh

You are correct, technically speaking. A lot of people(esp us J16ers) will still take note of price when it is diverging so clearly like that and the top is nearly horizontal. It would be very hard for the MACD to catch up before makes a retrace.

Best
Mike
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  #39345  
Old Jul 29, 2009 10:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dhh View Post
thanks mike. if i get you correct?: macd clearly made a lower high, yet price almost has an equal high, so there is still a diverging nature between the two. so if other reasons to trade this were strong, this would still be a good trade(as the chart shows now).
yep exactly. Like you I would of preferred a break higher then some nice clear PA. This is always the preferred for me. But a big thing for many people is double top + pa + div + etc.
Best
Mike
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  #39356  
Old Jul 30, 2009 12:34am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
And 2000 odd posts, good sir.

...So for every posting on FF you've had to write 4 PMs. ...If my calculations are correct.
way more posts then that. All of us lost a great deal of post count in an upgrade months back(maybe a year at this point lol). I think it got chopped in half, or at least I remember losing about half
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  #39359  
Old Jul 30, 2009 12:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
yeah i forgot about that. i lost over half.

i think it was all the posts from the private forum when it was staged here. not sure.
nope those didn't even count towards it from what I remember(even though that seems like ages ago) So don't quote me lol
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  #39360  
Old Jul 30, 2009 12:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Still having to do intense physical rehabilitation after that slip.
haha that is a good one, I think Elmer might need a wardrobe change soon
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  #39363  
Old Jul 30, 2009 12:45am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Forgot about that too. I thought James was over 3 grand at one point.

At least now Mike it looks like you may possibly have a life outside of the forum. lol
hahaha MAYBE
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  #39367  
Old Jul 30, 2009 1:37am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I was thinking of maybe this one. Super Trader. Yeaahhh cool.
hahaha oh man I think these boards have drove a few of us looney(no pun intended)
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  #39449  
Old Jul 30, 2009 11:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jazflyer View Post
Here's the chart.
Jaz asked me to comment on this I must have missed it.

Although The channel is good for a breakout, I would never just play a pure sell of it. This to me is just to open for anything and more flipping a coin. I would prefer to use my skills of pa analysis s/r etc to determine an entry on a breakout. I do this by waiting for a pullback to the former breakout area. So if we used the daily as the base of the channel I then drop down to the 1hr, and 4hr and watch for the breakout and pullback, and at the pullback confirming PA. This is nearly the only was I trade breakouts. The only time I trade a pure break is on multiple bar highs or lows.

So this one pulled back slightly but not enough to the former support of the trendline area for a retest. This trade did work out nice for you though so kudos. Easy target or breakeven area the clear round number at .8500

Hope that helps sorry for missing your post

Mike
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  #39451  
Old Jul 30, 2009 11:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The size was too small compared to the strong move down. Also, playing iinto a some traffic on the left. To fight through that traffic, would like to have a bigger size (longer nose).

Many times Price Action will cut through a lot of traffic, if the size and supporting confluences have strength.
This made me so happy to see posted, although no surprise it was from you lol

Remember Jims chart about a poodle pinbar, and a pitbull pinbar. You need a pitbull to be able to fight off a strong move. The poodles work nicely in choppy markets. I run with the pitbulls
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  #39452  
Old Jul 30, 2009 11:36am
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Hey Cyrus

You are new to this stuff, and you nailed it that perfect? Man you are going to have no problems, just a matter of time and gaining that experience. Once you are able to effectively spot these areas, then it just becomes understanding yourself and what is comfortable. Most people are maybe partial off there stop to b/e. Others stop to b/e see if it breaks etc.

Well done man, really. If that doesn't put a smile on Jims face then I don't know what would

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Hello everyone,

Still relatively new to the James16 method.

Would appreciate some comments on this signal please.

Space, Shape and Location look fine to me.
Nice shooting star w long rejection tail off mR1 @ a swing high.
(would be better if it was a red shooting star yes)

Was wondering about the trade management.
Thought it might decline abit more, but today's bounce off PPZ was quite big.

Could I get comments from you guys on how you would have managed the trade?

My train of thought was taking partial profits @ PPZ 1 which it hit...
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  #39456  
Old Jul 30, 2009 12:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Basber View Post
Hi Mike,
About This PB ... I Don't Want To Take It, I Just Want To Know Your Comment On This

P.S. : Both U/CHF And G/U Have Same Direction PinBars. I Don't Like This Situations. But U/CHF Is Looking Good To Me

Regards,
Basber
Hey Basber, not enough confluence there for me to take it along with the size. Had this been running through .8500 it would have been worth a shot , but just not quite there, seems a large amount of order came in just before it.

Best
Mike
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  #39458  
Old Jul 30, 2009 12:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Mike,
how about the (minor) PPZ around 0.8570-80? does it suit your eye's attention? this PPZ (chocolate color) goes back to June3, or even way back to Nov25'08. it's visible in H4 & Daily chart. price formed a small PB off of that PPZ (& short of the 0.86round number), heralding the eventual (almost 100-pip) move down.

btw, what timezone is MT4NF? these charts are AFB MT4 (similar to FXPro, GMT + 3)
I asked because i noticed the difference between the two MT4's with regards the lower pink line/channel. MT4NF's pink line is quite far from the price,...
Hey Supreme

Yes the concept is the same, just in your case you are using the PPZ. I prefer to only trade very clear nice PA off PPZ areas, and with breakouts the pattern must be a clear pattern(easily recognizable for all, even the daily channel didn't quite wet my lips enough). With breakout trades, on the pullback I will take less optimal bars then you might be lead on to believe I only take.

As for mt4, sorry not a clue! I only know the US eastern times my charts close.

Best
Mike

Last edited by mbqb11, Jul 30, 2009 12:12pm Reason: that was horrific english on my part sorry
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  #39460  
Old Jul 30, 2009 12:33pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
mbqb11,
aha... got ya! so there is "still" something u dont know about
kidding aside, what is the exact time now (in HH:MM) in your MT4NF mt4?


i think what i meant to ask was, with or without the knowledge of that PPZ (assuming u approve the PPZ's validity), u would still not short it there (via the small PB off the chocolate PPZ ---a short based on a break & retest of that PPZ)? u still want a short off of your blue box area (trendline retest)?
Thanks!
Right now NF is at the 19:00 bar

And yes everything in my trading is kept separate. My intraday is different then my daily/weekly, which is different then my breakout trading, etc. It is how I keep things structured and stay discipline for myself

Best
Mike
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  #39479  
Old Jul 30, 2009 2:29pm
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Hey James

The guys above all hit on what I would have said too. If it was me you sent the email and some how it slipped by just send me again or shoot me a PM. If it wasn't me and you want to send it anyway you can do that too

Hang around here, you are in for a fun ride

Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesL View Post
Hi all

I have scanned through the first couple hundred pages of this thread.

I like the price action stuff very much - it makes sense to me, though I haven't really traded it much - just a tiny bit in a demo a/c - basic reversal candles on lower timeframes on some currencies.

I just wondered if the PF is still as active and popular as it was in the first couple hundred pages, and still come highly recommended?...
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  #39482  
Old Jul 30, 2009 3:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Just to add one thing on PF:

I am always very cautious when talking about PF and am keen to stress that everything you need is here. That's not because I am ambiguous about PF. As you can tell from what I wrote I think it's superb and the best money I ever spent.

It's more because I don't want someone reading this thread who can't afford PF to think "man all the good stuff is in there, and I can't afford it" This thread isn't a tease for the paid site. Everything you need really is here. It's one of the reasons I admire Jim, he basically gives...
hhehe Jarroo has been a member since the old PF. That guy has price bars running through his blood. Or he was then left then came back I see aug 08.

And yes the material in the PF is more structured, videos, webinars, more personal time. There is certainly more material from certain instructors, b/c it would be impossible to sit here and explain ever nuance for example my intraday trading. Or if you are a complete newb and need help just learning the basics, thta can't be taught in a fluid manner in a bulky thread.

But don't let anyone ever fool you into thinking there is some secret. Experience is what is taught, and all that really ever can be after a certain level. That is why in the PF some find themselves interested in my BOs or Intraday, others gravitate towards the Base system with Swami, or the Knife with Baddison or touch trading with Raczefx, then SL has his work with trendlines, bemac with Icce(I don't want to forget anyone and be a bad friend :P).

Those who are interested just finding this thread. Start reading from post one like the others have said. Spend time finding if this is right for you. Don't ever jump into anything you might not be ready for or ready to absorb yet. There is more then enough in this thread to become profitable, and this thread gives more then most courses cost 500 times over.

Mike

Last edited by mbqb11, Jul 30, 2009 3:30pm Reason: added
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  #39526  
Old Jul 30, 2009 9:57pm
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This is actually a j16 style trade, but just what I would consider more advanced to be honest in its understanding and implementation. Towards the more earlier stages of this thread James explains TBH, TBL or multiple bar highs/lows as breakout plays. I rarely trade these as pure breaks. The times I will is when you have multiple bar highs and lows lining up in a more condensed amount of time. This is almost always good for at least a "burst" breakout that gives time for profit or at minimum stop to b/e.

Here is an example chart


Best
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Sorry, it wasnt showing up - see it now though.

I think it is a nice breakout trade, but it isnt really a j16 type trade. You have a break of a strong PPZ, but nothing else to support it - no real PA (unless there was something on a lower TF?).

There are some guys here that do alot of touch trading/blind entries - but I dont see any of them here right now.

Breakout trades are kinda dicey, because they fail way more than they succeed.

Nice trade management though, your exit is textbook stuff.
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  #39527  
Old Jul 30, 2009 9:59pm
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another example on the weekly

The reason these work is b/c no matter the kind of orderflow on the other side it gives action which draws a movement in the most simplistic sense. Sp for me the more in a row or in a shorter period of time the better the trade
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  #39535  
Old Jul 30, 2009 11:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
This is exactly why this play works in a directional market. You are pretty much banking on there being an established trend with a built up orderflow, and then some big player (generally a corporate) needing to hedge an exposure at a particular number.

So the big order bounces the bars back off whatever particular number the corporate needs them at (generally a round number - not many treasurers are calling the dealing room and telling them they need Y200m @ 77.73862).

The break happens when the order is completely filled, and so the 'blockage'...
yeah as most know I very much enjoy this stuff and a lot of it from DS teaching me
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  #39539  
Old Jul 31, 2009 12:23am
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Originally Posted by kk007 View Post
After my last attempt to use pinbar two days ago. I have my second attempt and failed again today.

I like this one when I took it, in term of pinbar shape it is good. and in terms of position it piereced a PPZ and a clear trendline, unfortunately it failed.

It didn't hit my first take profit point at 16455, so it is a complete loss trade. I am doing demo trading.

May anyone suggest a lesson here.

cheers.
Hey K

My first suggestion is to start this on the higher timeframes. James and the rest of us suggest this for many important reasons.


This is the exact post I made in the PF today about the same trade. This is not a failed trade in fact it did exactly what we would expect going to the first trouble area in a very very very choppy market

Hope this helps
Mike


______________________________

[quote=mbqb11;32958]Hey Pat

Thank you for those nice comments and welcome to the forum. These are the posts that really are humbling.

Glad to hear you sticking to the higher timeframes this is defintely where we need to start. Now this trade was not a bad one. But these are the reasons most people get killed on the lower timeframes especially. I actually took a pic and was about to post it before I had to run out. The reason this is a tough trade is people forget to identify something like how choppy gbp/usd, then they miss the first trouble area, and end up taking a loss.

This pic should speak a thousand words.

Thanks again for the nice comments

Mike
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  #39542  
Old Jul 31, 2009 1:09am
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Hey K

The higher timeframes serve a few main purposes. The most important IMO is that the decision making process is slowed down. When new traders are trying to tackle the hourly when they don't fully understand the concepts they get hit with loss after loss, which usually leads to impatience lack of discipline which all leads to over trading and improper mgmt of trades just like this. I don't mean to pick on you(surely you know I am trying to help), but my post in the PF was made hours before you made this post and it was exactly the example of the trader I was speaking about and what I worry about with trading and this material.

Like joel said you have to remember these PPZ are zones, and actually even in the case of this chart, the nearest area was an actual line definied by clear bar highs. These can NOT be ignored in such a choppy market. At this point you must get your stop to b/e at the minimum or you will be taking too many losses.

Also your "math" really doesn't go very far in trading. These are some of the concepts people try to apply to trading and it is more theory then reality. This is why many people fail b/c we are all brought up in school of thought where things are orderly and proper. Trading is not the same. We can apply logic but must also understand what we are doing. Price is not random and with the knowledge of s/r and price action we can clearly prove that. So I suggest forget all that nonsense math stuff and just learn to do what many of us do here. It will help the absorption process and make learning to trade a lot easier. Goes back to KISS and really for a lot of people who come from various backgrounds forgetting what they think they know.

Hope that clears it up !

Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by kk007 View Post
Hi Mike,

Thanks for you quick response.
I have marked my PPZ line slightly lower than you, and it did not get touch.

As a matter of fact, if a trade using R:R = 3:1, without any particular method, the chance of hitting take profit is 75% (assumpting spread =...
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  #39586  
Old Jul 31, 2009 12:41pm
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O a questionnaire I am game for it

quote=JamesL;2919079]Thanks very much indeed. the thread is clearly still very active!

I'm very tempted to join up now to save time going through 2700 pages, though I feel I would be missing something. I've now scanned 500 pages so far, and made some notes.

It is very likely I will join up. It's just a matter of when. And then I'll throw myself into it - i do tend to concentrate my efforts on one thing at a time, and get very enthusiastic!

May I put a few queries as they pop into my head?



Are most of you members of the PF too?

I am a member :P

How many here are in or near my timezone (UK)?

Do many of you trade the London FX session?

I trade mainly from 3am - 11am est the bulk of the european/US session

Are many of you full-time traders here?

I trade full time but do not make my full income off trading. I am still very much in the building phase(25 years old, by 30 I hope to be in a very very different place), even still I doubt I would ever trade only full time to not have any pressure

Is most of the daily trading discussion done on there, rather than here? With the general chit chat, social stuff and comaraderie here?

A great deal of trading is done here, but a lot of it is helping the new traders build there confidence and get a handle on the basics. This "free" thread offers more then any other thread I have seen, and some never need more and that was always James intention

I've scanned this thread to around the end of October 2007 - has there been much detailed discussion of the methods since then? I notice James had not been able to contribute a great deal then but said he should be able to later and had great plans for the thread? More of the method etc

What has happened to some of the old posters? I recognise mbqb11 very well (fabulous posts, Mike). What happened to other good posters, such as The-Wizard, and others?

Since things blew up it is hard to post as much here as James would want I am sure. My inbox is flooded daily then + answering PMs and posts, it becomes quite a task. Lucky for me I don't have kids and a wife like James so I can dedicate more time here which I greatly enjoy doing too. Except weekends I tend to be more MIA

Is the method discussed here mostly trading pins, sometimes inside or outside bars and ocasionally the double high/low with a low/high close at places which coincide with support/resistance levels, fibs, trendlines, Moving averages when the price is moving/swinging around in uncluttered areas?

The basics yes, confluence, + price bars. Other ways to tackle it, touch trading(raczekfx). Different styles and what not. But on this thread yes very much the basics of price bars at good locations.

Currency pairs seem to be drifting sideways on the larger timeframes this year - are you all trading something else till they start moving better?
There is always something out there moving in currencies. But if all you choose to watch are the higher timeframes it is well worth it to expand to other instruments.

Do you trade mostly currencies, or do you trade other instruments too. It seems that some posters, in the pages I have looked at so far (eg james16 and The_Wizard), have actually or had a preference for trading commodities or other non-fx securities, finding them easier. What are the easiest instruments to make a profit from using this method? And, I suppose, at this time following the crunch?

There is no "easiest" to make profit from. Price action is very very universal. You can give me a chart, cover up the instrument and I can trade it. Some people just enjoy other markets. James is a huge mini dow fan. Once you learn to read a chart though, the rest is just little changes.

Do you specialise in trading one or two securities, perhaps with multiple strategies, or do yiu trade a larger range of instrument, perhaps looking for ideal setups with a single strategy?

I trade a large range of pairs ~25/gold/silver and trade the same methods. Larger timeframe trading(daily weekly), then I have my intraday, and then my intraday trading. Finally I have one more mechanical method. The above all based on Price Action.

What kind of strategy do you find works for you with the price action discussed here?
Whichever works for the individual. Some people take what they know, and add Price action. It can make nearly any decent system much better.

Do you all find the higher timeframes (eg 4 and over) less risky and more rewarding than lower ones where the stop losses can be tighter? At what level eg 30 min timeframe do you find the signals less reliable?

All timeframes can be reliable, the problem lies in the trader. Learning to be discipline by starting on the 1hr is a deadly combination(see every trader in the world almost). James suggests(and us old timers agree) to start on the daily weekly. It will train the eye better, let the trader have more time to make decisions and really learn the material. As you get good it is much easier to move down in timeframes to make quicker decisions.

Is perhaps the emphasis on trading only higher timeframes to get reliable signals a bit overdone if you can trade the most active session eg London, where there may be more ticks in a bar?

Again a chart is a chart. Doesn't really matter, see above.

Do you use a variety of different timeframes eg TF to set a favoured direction, TF to find support/resistance levels, another for entry, another to manage the trade, another to exit, etc?

Personally no. I trade off the timeframe I am looking at. Depending on the exit I use I may or may not drop down a timeframe. Or sometimes a trade turns into a larger timeframe trade. But always KISS(keep it simple stupid).

Do you trade retracements, reversals etc or range breakouts eg when an fx session opens?
Whatever lines up with my methods. Session open really doesn't mean much to me.

What about other kinds of price action, such as trading 1-2-3 reversals?

I trade breakout and pullbacks. Same thing basically

I think I noticed in the early posts, that there was an emphasis on waiting for only trading perfect setups... it is said to be very easy to lose money trading so is this still the case with the methods used here?
Yep the A+++ setups are as reliable as it gets

Do yiu find you can trade larger positions on perfect setups, or do minimum amounts on less-than-perfect setups on lower timeframes do the trick too?
I keep my risk the same as the market can still do what it wants. I trade 1% per trade %R style.

Don't you also find that you gain much more practice and experience if you trade on the lower timeframes? Doesn't it take a heck of a long time to gain experience trading perfect setups on the higher timeframes, especially if trading a narrow range of securities eg only currency pairs?

That is a false concept. We think practice makes perfect, but to trade more doesn't mean to learn more. In fact we often learn the most by NOT trading, and being discipline to sit on our hands for days maybe weeks at a time. Weird I know, but believe me true.

Also, thos with low funded a/cs - is it better to id a setup then drop down to a lower timeframe, and trade larger position with a smaller stop loss?

This is why James says most get killed. Because they are underfunded and that 50$ your up means nothing, you get greedy and boom stopped out again. I would say firstly move to demo till you prove you can do this(3 months consecutively profit). Then try to trade that account as if it was a larger account, not by adding risk, just by thought. Someone traded a demo account size a large one in tandem so they could see the actual $ figures. You have to keep a long term outlook though.





Thanks a million, folks

edit - one other thing - what is a "Lifetime Member", and who's lifetime does it refer to? ..Does the forum web site disappear in the event that any key individuals disappear? Thanks again,.
Hopefully it is a long time. I don't want to put words into Jim's mouth but all the key individuals aren't going anywhere as long as the site remains for the reasons it was started.
[/quote]
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  #39587  
Old Jul 31, 2009 12:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=39111
Anyone who pays attention to Mike's posts should be in from ard 1.0040 .....Already 130+ pips in green and the possibility of a weekly PB closing is very high. We'll see, it's going to be quite interesting (FREE TRADE) if it does....
Good to see you my man!

Great job

Mike
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  #39591  
Old Jul 31, 2009 6:02pm
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Originally Posted by Alexandra View Post
If one doesn't look at R/R, one is doomed to fairure over the long term. There are times when the market may reverse unexpectedly through intervention or news, etc....
I do find this topic funny cause anyone whos been trading for a long time knows opinions are like methods there are too many to count. RR means nothing to me sometimes I get a great 3r sometimes much less then half. It is taking what the market offers and understaning your method period. No ome should kid themseleves that it is all or one. At least no one who has been making money. Also just cause a trade moves three times ones risk and the trader that goes for 3r each time got it and the trader who only got half a percent out. Neither is more rightt or wrong if both make money on the long haul period.

Have a good weekend all
mike
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  #39773  
Old Aug 3, 2009 11:38am
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I have said this before but will make the observation again for the newer traders here....
great post kiss hope others don't miss it so here is a bump!
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  #39777  
Old Aug 3, 2009 12:06pm
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can i use this and ask a question abt divergence?
when does the divergence end(ie. not in effect any more)?
div. is say price made higher high, but indicator made lower high. so is it like when higher highs back in sync between price and indicator, then we can see divergence is ended? this has been bugging me long time. thanks in advance.
Hey Dhh

Yes that is basically it. But just b/c the peaks haven't synced back doesn't necessarily mean anything in terms of mgmt or what not. Here is just a quick chart. Purple lines are divergence, and orange is when things have synced back up more normal and there is no more divergence(price begins to turn over). Notice this doesn't mean that price won't continue one way or the other. The divergence we have now is just a pretty strong signal that we are going to see some sort of retracement to quantify that current divergence before price continues one way or the other(be it up or down).

Best
Mike
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  #39787  
Old Aug 3, 2009 4:34pm
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Question to all:
Hey Trader

You will have both depending on where you are looking. So for example chart one below I have two fibs drawn from swing high points(the most obvious ones) to the current swing low point. This would give us potential resistance areas.

But likewise you can be looking for potential areas to go long, by drawing from swing lows to high(see chart 2). Because price is making a new high on the way up, we haven't really put that swing high in yet so we would have to move that if it goes higher until price starts to trickle down. I only drew the one since it is the main obvious fib.

Let me know if that helps
Mike
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  #39813  
Old Aug 3, 2009 8:18pm
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Guys sorry but want to understand this portion more

Is this valid fib confluence even when 1 is looking for resistance and the other support?
Hey Trader

You would only want fibs going the same way for fib confluence. So those would not fit that criteria. Independently those are drawn right though

Best
Mike
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  #39814  
Old Aug 3, 2009 8:19pm
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hhmmm - never measured it that way, but I'd say no. (I could be wrong here) <scratches head>

The idea is to measure a retrace - and hence you'd need to be interested in measuring in the same direction.
yeah I was going to say, there probably is some validity to it, but not the way we look at it here. Cause again fibs are just a tool, so to say it is wrong would be wrong lol. But for the way we do things here yeah this would be wrong.

Ah trading
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  #39882  
Old Aug 4, 2009 11:53am
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Do Aston Martins qualify for the govt. cash for clunkers program..
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  #39883  
Old Aug 4, 2009 11:54am
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Guys just wondering if there is a post in this LONG LONG THREAD of how you guys set up your charts daily.

Like for example:

Daily Fibs are looked for on the D1 and W1 time frame
PPZ on D1 and W1 are drawn
Trendlines are drawn
Pivots added in

Confluence located and marked out.

etc etc

Anyone knows?

Does the PF have these steps?

I personally start with clean charts every night. I mark very few things on my charts, and the cleaner the better for me

Best
Mike
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  #39884  
Old Aug 4, 2009 11:54am
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Thanks Jigsaw - I have a lot to learn so I am sure there will be plenty more posts!
Welcome from out of the shadows One day
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  #39886  
Old Aug 4, 2009 12:07pm
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Originally Posted by FinnTrader View Post
Hello! I have read the first 100 pages of this thread and I am highly impressed! I have tried to trade S/R-levels for 6 months now, with not so good results, however. But now that I found this thread, I hope that with this material my trading improves so much that I'm going to find some consistency.

Stupid question, but is it possible to make living trading > 4H bars after a couple of years hard work with initial capital of 5k$? (of course demoing first)
However, set ups seems to occur guite rarely...
Hey Finn

Welcome to the thread glad you are finding it helpful so far. As for making a living off 5k, my simple answer is No. I know that is probably the last thing you want to hear, but it is like asking, Can I open a business and live off it with 5k? This does not mean you can't grow that account over time and add to it, and build upon that. Here are a few posts that may be of interest to you

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25755
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25753

Again welcome and ask questions when you need something!
Mike
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  #39891  
Old Aug 4, 2009 12:13pm
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Guess what now you just contributed on your 3rd post greatly to this thread!

There is no need to lose any money while learning to trade. Everyone should do what you did and open a demo account. Most people are so hung up on trying to make money they forget they don't know how.

Little steps will get you there

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by One day! View Post
SP, your reply reinforces my own thoughts on this, but it is nice to hear it from someone that has been there and done that.

I have been running a small (much smaller than when I started ) spread betting account since I began. Having read the thread, I decided to setup an MT4 demo account and try out this way of trading. So far I have learnt two lessons from this;
1) setup the support zones first;
2) trade higher time frames.

How did I learn this - demo account entered trade on GBP/USD due to pinbar on the weekly chart - let it ride and gained...
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  #39895  
Old Aug 4, 2009 12:29pm
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Originally Posted by FinnTrader View Post
Thank you!

Yep, with 5k I should almost double it every month to pay bills, but I meant that if I could grow that 5k in a couple of years to level where the bills could be paid with profits. When the account is small, it's easier to take bigger positions so in the beginning the growth of the account should be fastest. But we'll see.

If I took 5 trades a month, 4 of them winning averagely let's say 4% and 1 losing 3%, it would be 13,5% profit/month and in 24 months 5k would be ~100k. Impossible?
Hey Finn,

Don't even think about things like this. This is what can really delay the learning process, b/c we get so far ahead of ourselves on the what ifs. Filling in spreadsheets, tweaking every last number. Your focus should be on only learning to trade right. Everything will fall into line after that. The reality is your 5k is not going to turn to 100k in 2years. I know that sucks to hear, but that is the reality more then anything. Focus on learning to trade and become profitable with conservative risk and the rest will take care of itself.

Best
Mike
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  #39896  
Old Aug 4, 2009 12:30pm
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I agree - save and demo, demo demo! Then, when I can "read" the charts, I should hopefully have a big enough account to put the stops where they should go instead of where my balance dicatates!
Also now a days especially in forex we should never be subjected to poor money mgmt. There is always a broker out there that can make position sizing properly possible. For example if you had even $100, you still could do it properly with a broker like Oanda that offers perfect granularity. What happens is the brokers advertise, deposit for as little as $500!. GREAT! But they only allow mini lots, etc. When it comes time to go live, find a broker that will allow you the proper flexibility.

Take care
Mike
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  #39901  
Old Aug 4, 2009 12:42pm
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Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
Hey Mike,

When I took this yesterday I was thinking to myself - "man this is such a Mike trade, I bet he's placing his order right now like I am ".

Was wondering did you put the good ol' BAT / 2Bar stop on it ? (I didn't, was happy to be out at 1:1)

Hey Jiggy

I didn't take this trade actually, trigger shy, with the size of the bar and those highs. Was a heck of a trade. My only trade was on the 5 min yest

Nice trade though!
Mike
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  #39902  
Old Aug 4, 2009 12:44pm
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Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
I know we don't go over these types of TA for our trading method, but just want to verify.
Is this still considered a bull flag? Normally the lines for the flag are parallel, but these are moving away from each other.

.
I wouldn't really say there is any pattern on that timeframe. But sine you can see some consolidating, if you drop down a pattern can become more clear.

I think it is important for me personally with breakouts to be trading in relation to the pattern/timeframe

Mike
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  #39908  
Old Aug 4, 2009 3:20pm
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
Yes, exactly... At FXCM they will allow you to open a micro account (10 cent pips), but the kicker is you are not allowed an account size greater than $5000).

GregB
simple move brokers
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  #39965  
Old Aug 5, 2009 10:40am
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Hey Tom

This is a question of correlation so I will give you my view. If a great trade is a great trade the rest doesn't mean much. So If a beautiful trade shows up on eur/gbp, and then on eur/cad. I take both, ignore what the other is doing and manage the trade appropriately. Especially on eur/cad and eur/gbp. The time where correlation gets my interest a bit more are the days when you have very correlated pairs like the xxx/jpy pairs all doing the same thing . Ex. 5 daily pins all on the xxx/jpy pairs. When this happens I usually take the best one of the bunch(sometimes best 2), and then leave the rest.

Hope that helps
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by fat_tom View Post
Guys/girls,

basic question here...

I find myself in 2 trades currently a short EURGBP (few days old daily BEOB) and a long EURCAD (triggered late on yesterday weekly pin ...)

Not wanting to discuss whether these are good trades or not (I think I know the answer ) but I find myself on one hand wanting a show of strength from the Euro (EURCAD trade) and on the other hand a weakness (EURGBP) now I know in any trade there are two pairs and indeed the EUR could stay the same through out these trades and I could win based on the behaviour...
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  #39968  
Old Aug 5, 2009 10:57am
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Originally Posted by tac View Post
Anyone also in the gbp/aud 2 day Long pb off the 2.0000? Care to post a chart? Still on holiday/vacation till Sunday, so can't touch it till then although I have a move to be at 300 pips profit. Think I'm up 200 so far no doubt by Sunday it will be retesting 2.000 instead of 2.0500.

Good trading to all

mark
here ya go mark hope you are having a fantastic vacation(holiday )
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  #39970  
Old Aug 5, 2009 11:06am
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Originally Posted by fat_tom View Post
Mike,

Cheers for this - so basically unless the trades are mirror images of each other I'll treat them as entirely seperate entities...

sorted....

Thanks again

Tom
Yeah where I see most people blow up is the following scenario

Pin bar on Gbp/jpy eur/jpy aud/jpy cad/jpy on the 4hr chart.

Person takes all 4 above with equal risk(say 2%). They now have 8% out there, mismanage all 4 trades, and want to crawl under the desk. I am not mocking anyone who has done this, b/c hopefully they learned from it. Some people will take all 4, but they usually are much more experienced knowing to cut their risk and spread it better, or they are hella good at managing their trades that having 8% open in correlated risk doesn't bother them. To each his own, but Buyer/seller beware

Best
Mike
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  #39975  
Old Aug 5, 2009 1:06pm
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Does anyone know where can I download a software which enables me to draw short lines and arrows on my charts (like in the paint software coming with windows)?
Sometimes I just want to pull a short line or arrow on my chart but I can't.
I refer to the tool Jim and Mike are using when they make their videos.

Thanks,

Ben
Hey Ben

That tool is part of the video recording software camtasia. But camtasia makes a screen shot software too called Jing that works nicely and has similar tools.

Best
Mike
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  #40000  
Old Aug 5, 2009 7:43pm
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Is this a sideways market?


.
HELLO stop hunt
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  #40001  
Old Aug 5, 2009 7:44pm
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
I have 2 reasons why I am hesitant to take a short on GBPCAD.

1. Jim Flaherty (Canadian Finance Minister) yesterday fired a warning shot across the bow of Bay St (Canada's Wall St), threatening to intervene if the Canadian dollar gets any stronger (bluffing maybe?)...

2. NFP will release in about 36 hours from now....

Either of the above could cause the Looney Looney to lose some strength...EU and GU for some reason have been gaining strength, even with spectacular reports coming out in favour of the USD...

I know this is not PA...but the EU...
I am not trading gbp/cad b/c it doesn't line up with my methods.

But let me just share that many of us don't have the slightest clue about any fundamentals, and for most(notice I say most so if you use it and it works don't yell at me lol) of us it simply distracts from just reading the chart. THis is not to get into a fundies vs techs , too many of that. But since this is Jims thread i will throw this out. Someone once asked James "what do you do about news?" Jim's reply "I avoid news like the plague."

So do I.

Mike
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Old Aug 5, 2009 8:09pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Mind discussing why not taking the GC trade? I'd enjoy your take on it myself.

News -

I don't understand it anyway, and I am willing to bet that the economists at the big funds and banks have most, if not all the same data the government does anyway, and price sets itself up as a result. How many times do we see PA in agreement with an impending event. Lots.

Besides, my wife had the news on today and I was regaled with a story about a man who shot up a gym in Pennsylvania because he could not get sex.... Guess we know why.
From the PF for you

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Tracy

You really hit on all the points that I would be looking at....
When I find a trade that doesn't scream out at me, or when I see it I just say EH. I could find reasons both to take and not to take. Maybe if this was the end of the month and I was up doing real well, I would go for it. But a slow june(2.5%), slow starting week for me. Doesn't really do it for me. Easy no trade for me.

AGAIN reminder to all(not SP he knows this). Just b/c one person doesn't take a trade should have NO influence on your choosing process. Learn what works for you by observing others and more importantly observing and learning(by demo) yourself. There are plenty of trades I pass on that end up working, and plenty I pass on that don't work. I just do what works for ME.

Ok end of disclaimer LOl
Mike
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  #40006  
Old Aug 5, 2009 8:25pm
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I hear you Mike...loud and clear...I'll keep my fundies to myself from now on...no probs...

GregB
hey greg certainly I wasnt stopping you from shqring gere. Forgive me if thqt is how the post came off. What I was trying to get across was how fundies end up preventing a lot of people from becoming profitable in the overcomplication process. I just try to save people time dowN roads I have been. Sorry for the confusion

best
Mike
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  #40011  
Old Aug 5, 2009 10:04pm
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would you mind elaborating on this?
just in general when you hit a range like that stop orders build on the lower side of it, if it attracts enough attention you get a push to clear those orders and then your buy order come in to use those orders for some extra free liquidity

as liquid as forex is, it still is never liquid enough for the big guns

also known to the laymen as a false breakout
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  #40151  
Old Aug 6, 2009 11:58am
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Start over.
Man I went to bed early last night sick, and I came up to you guys giving such a fantastic lesson to KK. Joel, Ghous, Jarroo, SP, man you guys just rocked on 2-3 pages.

Often when learning this stuff we MUST start over. Forget what you think you know. Think of it like this, what you think you know coming into this thread has it worked for you? If the answer is yes, then build from that. Nothing wrong with combining. If it HAS not worked for you. Then START OVER. No better way to put it SP. Forget what you think you know. And learn from those of us that have been that road 4 times and back. It is a pretty lonely road, but it doesn't have to be.

Great stuff guys, really gave me a juice reading these last few pages.

Mike
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  #40152  
Old Aug 6, 2009 12:04pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post

PS - Hey Mike - do you know who Steven Tyler is???
no what is an aerosmith. Is that anything like a Blacksmith for airplanes?
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  #40154  
Old Aug 6, 2009 12:06pm
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Originally Posted by kk007 View Post
I have a different view. IMHO, I believe that technical analysis don't necessarily goes with news. They are two quite independent things. It is very risky to trade news based on technical analysis, no matter what method you use. It simply is not high-probs trading. The best method is to prevent important news, if you are trading intradaily.

Yes, this one go very well, but it is more about coincidence.
I personally ignore all news and don't even know when it is coming out. Again I think a lot of false facts are taught to us early on in our trading, that are best left at the door in the long run. Not saying some people don't use fundies or stay out for news.

Mike
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  #40157  
Old Aug 6, 2009 12:17pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hey folks, how are all of you doing?

Did any of you take a look on the EURJPY daily today?

I do not want to hear or ask for trade suggestions or signals.
Lets talk about Location.

Well,...

Hey Ben

Yep this pair has been ranging pretty hard, and we are nearing that top of the range. Waiting and watching is the way to go, then waiting for some very strong PA is how I do it

Mike
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  #40160  
Old Aug 6, 2009 12:25pm
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Yes Kiss,
You are right, I should never shift between TF, but I was very curious how does it look like (I mean 1hr) and while seeing it, I did what I did.

I simply love to bank profits, even so small (in comaprison with potential) and the same time I really hate when profits turn into zero (if they are higher than 50-60 pps).

I know that I behave like a child - in time - i hope to grown up ?

Thank You Kiss,
Peter
This isn't necessarily wrong Peter. James is much like this, he is not going to watch a good amount of pips dwindle into a huge loss. He just refuses to do it. He has his trades on a short leash. This is going to lead to a lot of breakeven trades yes, but very few full losses. If this works for you don't change a thing. Usually this style is a high win rate and those wins can pile up. I keep track of this style side by side to my normal style, and the winrate is in the 90% range. Sure the winners are small, and the occasionally loss can wipe out 4-5 winners, but then you have the next string of 10-15 winners. It is a balancing act, but do what works for you

Mike
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  #40167  
Old Aug 6, 2009 1:22pm
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Mike,

Hope you feel well now!

My PB trading result is poor. I have my fourth failed trades out of 5 now. Again the price just triggered my order and went all the way against me until hitting stoploss.

This is not a technically easy trading method at all for me.

Have to start over! Will see how to.

kk
Hey KK

i feel much better now thank you sir.

Yes it is not easy, nothing about learning to trade is easy. But in the end it is very easy and we say why did I over complicate, do this, that and the other. The posts proceeding your questions contained absolute gold. Just gold. Be sure to read them a few times, digest it, and come back to them every once and awhile. Those who helped you have been where you are, so we know what it is like. Stay open minded and don't get discouraged

Best to you
Mike
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  #40168  
Old Aug 6, 2009 1:23pm
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Hi Mike,

You ignore news even when trading intraday? If so, I would be surprised to hear this.

kk
Yep I ignore

I will know when NFP is(first friday of the month), and if there is a major interest rate announcement that people are holding on for. Even those I forget to check for anymore these days LOL
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  #40170  
Old Aug 6, 2009 1:23pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hi Tom,

Fibs from Low December 2000 to high July 2008, and high august 2008 to low January 2009.

@ Mike - Do you never play blind entries (not that I do, just general question lol).

Ben
Nope no blind entries for me here Ben

Mike
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  #40182  
Old Aug 6, 2009 4:21pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Me too.... sigh.

Is this part of the master plan??

First piss of your biggest draw...
Second commercialize the place...
?
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  #40184  
Old Aug 6, 2009 4:22pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Sorry abt those harsh words at you Jim,

For some reason it's these that inspire me the most today. lol
haha Jim is really going to get a kick out of that. Because you know how many people have felt like that, or are feeling like that. Inspiring buddy.

Glad you didn't write bad stuff about me HAH
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  #40241  
Old Aug 6, 2009 11:40pm
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Originally Posted by kk007 View Post
Dear all,

I've just taken so much from here without giving anything back. I can feel that many of you here...
Thanks for the Thanks KK, We give to those out there who are willing to put the time and effort in which you clearly are. So just keep at it !

Best
Mike
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  #40244  
Old Aug 6, 2009 11:50pm
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Originally Posted by kk007 View Post
I think it is not a good idea to take this outside bar, even if it break the high of them a little bit. Let me know if anyone think otherwise. I would say it is more likely to go down than go up.

cheers,

kk007
I wouldn't personally trade this based on the bar size, but let me just offer the other perspective. We have clear divergence, so we could be in for a temporary retrace(marked area going into 1.1). Again for me if this was a bigger outside bar then it would get my interest much more. But I say it time and time again, for me Size does matter(think pitbull analogy from James16).

Best
Mike
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  #40247  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:09am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Yep. What mike said, kk.

And if TraderTT is watching too, this is what I was talking about. (marked on included copy of KK's chart.)

Filter your trades down to extraordinary bars like this and you win rate will look a LOT better.

...I haven't read everyone's replies to KK but I want this little factor pointed out for sure.
yep that, and that alone would make a huge difference on anyones trading here who is in the red. I rarely make statements like that too.


Mike
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  #40248  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:10am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The potential Weekly PB on the Cad looks more like a chihuahua.

I like the location, I'll probably play a tight break.
Two sentences here guys/gals.

Smallish bar = Tigther Trade mgmt. See the thought process we must go through?
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  #40256  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:41am
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
AUDJPY H4 BEOB found. Please help see if this trade strategy is correct or did I miss out something.
by itself this is just a beob. The bars itself are just triggers. Looking at this beob on its own it is an easy pass trade. It is in a very sideways market(choppy). Now if we add some basic concepts such as the possible tip off of the breakout + divergence and the recent top we seem to put in then MAYBE this becomes a playable trade. But do you see how you have to formulate the pieces to decide. If you just want to trade the bars by themselves you are going to run into trouble b/c they pop up left and right.

Jaroos post above sums it up much better but I thought I would add this

Mike
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  #40258  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:43am
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Originally Posted by Ari Gold View Post
Cyrus,

Sounds very interesting. Quiet a bit of stuff there when I do a google search... any chance you could recommend some good introductory material with us? Would like to look into it...

Thanks
MM
I love your user name Hug it out
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  #40343  
Old Aug 7, 2009 10:59am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Look at that PB!!!

I won't move for a second from this computer until I move my stop to BE though

ok Mike...lets see if being picky pays off


Ben
Way to go Ben, I woke up for this one too Out already above 1.4

No way anyone should take a loss on this one at this point. Nice job Ben! Proud of you

Mike
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  #40344  
Old Aug 7, 2009 11:00am
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Originally Posted by oltciter View Post
This is my trade on EURCAD!
Nailed by ol too! Wow what a way to make my week end great. You guys rock
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  #40347  
Old Aug 7, 2009 11:13am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Ohh yeaa it pays off!
Eventually I traded...after so much time.
none of my other planed trades didn't trigger during the last weeks.

I made my pips here and got out.

I know...good chance it will breakout and I could made more pips...but I decided to get out based on what I have learned here.

Look at that consolidation box...I have got out when price touched that line....and now after I got out, price reserves exactly where I got out.
This stuff rocks!! Thanks Jim!...Thanks Mike plus senior members teaching this material.

LOL sorry....I'm just...
You could Frame this post your thought process and everything about it. You and Ol nailed it. You SHOULD be happy and excited.

Congrats Ben
Mike
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  #40351  
Old Aug 7, 2009 11:24am
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
I don't know if anyone else took this, but here is another trade I took. This is already my second trade this month, which is unusual because I usually only take between 1 to 4 daily trades per month.

GBP/CHF daily DBHLC. Price broke hard and hit the first trouble area and reversed. See chart.

Sorry for the blurry chart, I'm still working on a fix.

Scott
Hey Scott

Instead of saving your screen, right click the chart and click save as picture. Then check the active chart(as is) box. That is what I do

Well done on the breakeven 1.78 was a strong one

Best
Mike
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  #40353  
Old Aug 7, 2009 11:30am
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Guys, would like to hear your comments on NZDUSD H4 Pin Bar currently forming
Still a solid 20 mins, but it is an interesting one for sure, the lows around 6700 could give it trouble.

One comment though, just because a bar is big doesn't mean risk level is high. Your risk doesn't change, this is because we use position sizing. If you risk 1% per trade, you simply scale your position size to meet that. So be it a 500 pip stop or a 20 pip stop, our risk will remain constant.

Best
Mike
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  #40355  
Old Aug 7, 2009 11:50am
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
Mike,

I used to save the chart as a picture, and I like to annotate the charts to put my comments and other things right on it. I've been using Jing for this since it is very easy and fast, but the resolution is too high to post clearly on the forum.

Do you know of any other program to easily mark charts outside of mt4? I might have to stick to MS paint lol.

Regarding the trade... I had about 30-40 pips until 1.78 so I figured it was worth it to get my stops to BE +1 and see if it could break through 1.78.

Scott
I use jing also, I just only highlight the chart so they are around the 800 x 700 arena. Try that without capturing all the other stuff like your terminal. Should be fine


Best
Mike
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  #40359  
Old Aug 7, 2009 11:59am
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Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
nice trade guys,
im holding mine over the weekend cos of wat i see on the daily timeframe
hav a lovely weekend guys
awesome squeezy at this rate 5250 might be hit quick :P

Good example of many ways to skin a cat.

Mike
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  #40361  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:01pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Move over Mikey.. these guys are making this trading thing look too easy..
I guess I can have my first beer earlier today

Great thing to watch the youngins(yes I can finally say that to someone else besides ghous) grow up
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  #40364  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:06pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Sorry ya meant it this way - When I mean risk is high, I meant that the Position sizing is much much smaller
Great just making sure
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  #40372  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:28pm
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Originally Posted by fat_tom View Post
if the news was the 'other way' then I'm sure the charts would have went the other way as well no?



Tom
actually this is far from the case to be completely honest

but I digress
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  #40382  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:49pm
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Originally Posted by fat_tom View Post
Mike,

really? I'm confused!!! seriously... if thats the case and news can only make the charts go one way regardless if its good/bad or indifferent then everyone in the world would long for example prior to a news release?

Not that I want this thread to get bogged down in news related trading so feel free not to respond!! LOL

Tom
Yeah it really adds no benefit to this thread. A market doesn't have to be as rational as if X happens Y happens. ANd if Y would have happened then X would have happened. Just not that clean cut. Those who know a little microstructure understand their are a lot more functions at work then for it to be that simple. Or at least to make that sort of "logical leap".

Stick to the charts boys and girls

Mike
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  #40383  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:51pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Mansion...

I use the same set up at home too.. I am kind of intimidated by computers.. so if it aint broke dont fix it.
Jeff I might be wrong but like a year ago I could swear you didn't even know how to get into excel, and turning on the computer to get to the forums was about as far as you were.

Was that you or someone else. LOL
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  #40386  
Old Aug 7, 2009 12:59pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
yep... I still get angry at excel when it doesnt give me the numbers I want.
stupid software.....

I was sposed to be rich by now.


I am not making fun of Jeff, I know him a long time now. Actually the point to be taken no matter who you are, or who you think you are doesn't guarantee your success in forex. Those that usually fall the hardest are the ones with the degrees in everything from nuclear science to how to butter a roll. It means nothing in trading and can often cloud the better judgment b/c they THINK they know what it takes.
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  #40467  
Old Aug 9, 2009 4:14pm
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Originally Posted by phpscott View Post
Ben,
PBs have a long nose. I do not consider the monthly nor weekly bars to be PBs. The monthly bar does not come close but the weekly is getting there. The weekly bar is roughly the same length as the bars before it, but how can an average sized bar have a long nose? I label the weekly and monthly bars as average bearish bars that happen to have the open and close within the previous bar.

Scott
I very much agree with you Scott. These are the tempting ones, but I don't take em any more. It will be in the back of my mind, and I will watch 1.65 real close but won't play this one outright either.

Hope everyone had a terrific weekend !

Mike
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  #40537  
Old Aug 10, 2009 5:48pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
LVG pointed out the reason this trade did as it did - it ran into those bar highs and reversed....
Just to add to the points of these fine gentlemen above me(even though one is hurting from a nice weekend of baseball), Aud/Cad is a very very very choppy pair. So a small pinbar like that, you can't expect all that much past that first area. Any kind of holding would need something significant at a much stronger level for me.

You've already made a lot of progress TT

Mike
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  #40542  
Old Aug 10, 2009 6:11pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Thank you both for the replies. I will study through them and make sure the mistake does not happen again....
yes generally speaking both bars are reversal bars(although later on you will prob add them as continuations too), but for now yes. Pinbars should be found at swing highs and swing lows. Swing high we are looking for a bearish pinbar signaling a short. Pinbars at swing lows we are looking for bullish bars signaling longs. For outside bars, we want BEOBs at swing highs, and BUOBS at swing lows. This is just the "basics" of it. Then we have to dive into what confluence is there, the bar make up, etc. That is the meat of it. Then the end product and usually the most difficult for most is trade mgmt. Once we get all those pieces together we have our full course.

Best
Mike
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  #40546  
Old Aug 10, 2009 6:43pm
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Originally Posted by mseaz9 View Post
Your thoughts ...why this went wrong not yet but i feel like this PIN will fail.

I am still holding short n e one else in the same boat???
Hey Seaz

Just be careful here since the low of the pin never broke it technically is not a valid pinbar. So playing on the retrace is more aggressive and this will happen more often even though you get a bigger position size.

Best
Mike
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  #40551  
Old Aug 10, 2009 8:54pm
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Originally Posted by dhh View Post
i see, you put in the safty factor before and after, thank you.

-----------------------------------------

regarding my NZDUSD trade, chart below. pending order was below pin bar which did not break. but i was filled in my oanda account, found out that the order was filled at sunday 4pm at the lowest point. do people have similar experience?

this was sunday, so not sure if related to NFP on friday or not. but i do want to ask this as a GENERAL question.

if we see a good entry at the end of friday, do we wait till late sunday night or even monday...
Yeah if you are going to put your orders in that early you can't forget the spreads are much wider on Oanda. If you wait till sunday night when things settle back down it is better. Essentially ignoring that sunday bar if you have one is the same thing(waiting till its finished). If I have to place a trade that early it is not going to be with oanda personally.

That's how I handle it.

Mike
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  #40554  
Old Aug 10, 2009 10:46pm
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Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
This looks like a pretty decent short.

Shape looks great.
Location too, PPZ + wR1.
Space... might encounter some traffic on the way down @ PPZ below...
so thinking of taking profits earlier @ bottom range of PPZ around 1.0850.

I've got 1/3 of position size at 50% retracement mark of pinbar as well.

Any comments on how you guys would manage this trade please?

Thanks guys =)

Cy
Hey Cy

I would be nervous trading into that top area of your PPZ (pink area) with that bar highs sticking out there. This pair has gone bullish recently(weekly small pin), so it would be tough to squeak much out of this one, or tough for me to hold it trading into this. THere isn't a ton of confluence on this pin itself. Right now you can see it bounced right where you had it marked at the top. Tough trade here to me.

Take care
Mike
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  #40556  
Old Aug 10, 2009 11:08pm
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Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Hmmm... many thank you for the comments Mike.
Food for thought...
Still betting small while figuring out the finer details of this methodology.

On Confluence:
I thought there was a confluence of the PPZ in pink + wR1.. there's also a 61.8% retracement from a recent swing high off 1.1113.
Thought this would be a decent confluence of resistance levels.
This, plus a decent pin would = decent short term grab.

Saw the small weekly pin bar off a weekly PPZ... thought the 4hour retracing abit off this Pin would be quite reasonable.

Erm... I dont...
Hey Cy

These are the bars I find most get into trouble with in general. The bar itself is really not all that big. But the confluence is really not all that much. Firstly for me actual pivot points aren't all that useful in the forex market(to me, again opinion ). The only real swing points would put us at the 23.6(which I never find all that strong, i prefer the 50 and 61.8 if anything). But again if we zoom out we can really see the size of the bar doesn't show much strength versus this recent move up(lots of support underneath now). So that bar high area, is strong in comparison to me. Which means trading into it would immediately scare me off. I drew out a possible scenario that might support your short, but again that pin alone I don't see as strong enough to trade. I just don't see that much confluence there to make it worthwhile. I more see it as a late day pin forming b/c price approached that recent high area and it was too late in the day to make a push at it. Again this isn't a clean cut system, so opinions will vary, and I can only offer how I see things. I just know for a 4hr trade, they come much better then this one, which has some clear negatives off the bat.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #40569  
Old Aug 11, 2009 1:41am
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
H
Personally, I wouldnt take this one - I am a bit of a girl about BEOB/BUOB patterns, and if it doesnt close near the bottom I pass on it. Ideally, bottom quater of the bar, but I will take bottom third if it is a nice location.
This is a very important point to take note of TT. You are at the early stages, so all these questions and what not are perfectly expected. But to save you time, I would first suggest to get ride of that PA indicator. I think it is going to distract you from finding the really GOOD bars, vs just what might qualify as a bar. Many of those BEOBs you posted like the usd/chf are very neutral bars. They don't really give us much info. We can't forget that we are trying to get an idea of where price may go. This comes back to the post James made about poodle bars(small) vs pitbull bars(big). It is just another analogy for what we talk about as a BIG OBVIOUS BAR. Most people begin to recognize any bar as fitting a criteria to be called a pinbar, or an outside bar, and then find reasons to trade it. Instead of finding key areas and then waiting for great PA to slap you in the face.

Just thought I would add that to the great posts from Jarroo and Joel above

Mike
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  #40589  
Old Aug 11, 2009 11:29am
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Originally Posted by tac View Post
Anyone in the NZD/USD Pin bar short on daily, looks like the patience is paying off its broke through 0.6700, breaking the pin bar.
This was definitely a test of patience for you guys that got in on that retrace. Here is the first clear trouble area(I had watched this for the 4hr pin that occurred late on the IBFX feed)

Mike
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  #40591  
Old Aug 11, 2009 11:58am
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Originally Posted by tac View Post
Cheers Mike,

Yeah those bar highs will no doubt cause price some trouble, a good time to move to break even or take partial profit or full profit depending on your ma.

This is my 4th trade and looks like being a winner, which woudl be 4 out of 4 if I had been able to close my holiday trade when it was up 200 pips . This stuff is looking like it works, they key is money management and trade management.

Good pips

Mark
Great Mark

Yep it is there for the taking for those that want it. It isn't an easy road, it would be lie if I said everyone or even close to that makes it. But for those that put in the time, are open to new ideas , and open to changing themselves a bit. It is there .

Hope you had a good holiday
Mike
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  #40594  
Old Aug 11, 2009 1:12pm
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Originally Posted by faizal82 View Post
hi guys

this is my first post. i have been following the james 16 method for just over 6 months now. i have been successful on demo and have now opened a live account.

at present i am only trading weekly, daily and 4hr charts.

I am trading with a quite a large account therefore iam trying to be picky. however i got tempted into placing a short on aud/cad 4hr (ibfx feed)

Pros

[color=black][font=Verdana]Weekly...
welcome with your first post, but nice to see a lurker that is having success come out and contribute (congrats on that btw).

This is a tough pair to trade for me. It is overall very choppy(goes with the con you wrote about difficulty in where price might bounce). I can't remember the last 4hr trade I had here, I like the choppier pairs on the daily / even the weekly(sort of like a choppy intraday equity you could say ).

Best
Mike
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  #40754  
Old Aug 12, 2009 10:42am
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
I'm on the long side of EJ. Up about 50 pips at the moment, but like the shape/location (potential daily pin, fingers crossed) so i think I am prepared to give this one some room to play.

Well spotted.

if we can break 136, there is a minor battle between 136.50-137.00...and after that, I'd be looking for this one to go to 138.00 - 138.25. And then come back down, prolly.


Attachment 288242

Attachment 288243
Joel my man

I took the eur/jpy 4hr pin, and took full profit shy of 136.50 which is going to be tough to motor right through easy.
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  #40758  
Old Aug 12, 2009 10:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by salisa View Post
... does a pin ever look better than this?
The answer? No they don't.

Did I trade Monday? Nope. did I trade tuesday? Nope. It's a waiting game. B/c the taking candy from babies bars COME.
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  #40759  
Old Aug 12, 2009 10:50am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
This was definitely a test of patience for you guys that got in on that retrace. Here is the first clear trouble area(I had watched this for the 4hr pin that occurred late on the IBFX feed)

Mike

updated chart.
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  #40765  
Old Aug 12, 2009 11:12am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Mike, reading these kind of posts from someone like you make me smile. It's like something inside me is stressing that the way to financial freedom everyone looks for, is real, and it is one step away. We have here something so many others are dreaming to have.

Thank you.

Ben
And reading posts like this make me smile

I promise you that.
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  #40778  
Old Aug 12, 2009 12:08pm
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Originally Posted by nonick View Post
hi all,
posting some of my old charts, from the beginning of july.
i didn't take all of these setups, only the best-looking ones(those with a lot of space).
i hope, it might help some of you to see the difference between A+ and the average setups and i think it also shows that there are plenty of signals every day.
awesome post Nick

Nick has been doing this for awhile and it shows clearly.
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  #40785  
Old Aug 12, 2009 1:03pm
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Originally Posted by salisa View Post
Ok here's a question: if these set-ups are like taking candy from a baby, why wouldn't you increase the risk %? or is that what you do in fact do?
The market is still always right and in control. Part of being a good trader, is keeping and defining your risk tolerance based on your methods. I know what I am comfortable with, I know I take losses, I know what drawdowns I can handle etc. If at any point I mis manage a trade(which I do), I want to be in a risk that I can handle. I don't doubt some people raise and decrease their risk, but I also find if you are doing that maybe you aren't taking the best setups either way(as the great fijitrader once told me). This is still just another trade, although a really easy one in the end. Slow and steady wins this marathon. Compounding is your best friend

Hope that makes sense
Mike
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  #40807  
Old Aug 12, 2009 3:37pm
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Originally Posted by salisa View Post
Yes perfect sense as usual thanks - particularly the bit: "This is still just another trade".... can you post an example of where you went wrong? please? I know that might be asking more than the usual....
Of course. When I say I went wrong, I still followed my plan, but I just try my best to evaluate each situation and pick the best form of mgmt etc. Here was a case where we had a large run down on the Cad. We formed a large BUOB of a solid area that englufed many bars. This was a strong sign to me + Divg. I knew a few things. First the trend is heavy down, catching a knife is dangerous but at the time decided that was an ample bar to trade still. I also knew that there was a minor PPZ area above(blue) that it could stall out on. My decision was to let this one run and that bar would trump that minor PPZ. It initially bounced, and then went heavily sideways. I decided after awhile to move my stop loss under those consolidating bars, and ended up taking a little over 1/2% loss. Did I go wrong? Well sure, technically one could say, it hit the PPZ reversed as we MIGHT expect. But these are the trading decisions we must make and decide when we might give something more room, when were wrong we cut out. As long as we can recognize these pieces it becomes pretty repetitive in nature, even though each situation is individualistic in its own ways.

Hope that is what you were looking for

Mike
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  #40812  
Old Aug 12, 2009 3:54pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
I hear Chubbs now (from happy Gilmore) saying to me "Just tap it in, just tap it in"... but the ball has to be close in to tap it in...
GET IN YOUR HOLE!
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  #40814  
Old Aug 12, 2009 3:57pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
What is BEOB, please ?
Hey Cprao

BEOB stands for Bearish Outisde Bar.

Here is an example of a BUOB(first one with arrow), and beob(second arrow)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11011


Best
Mike
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  #40833  
Old Aug 12, 2009 5:47pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Wondering if this qualifies as a breakout trade as taught by Mbqb11

Price consolidated, formed a top, broke out and now retraces back forming a pin bar at the former resistance.

Never traded breakout trades with PA before so any advice would be appreciated.

AUDUSD DAILY
Hey TT

Yes you have the general idea down. I look for a breakout and pullback like that. I would call that more of a sloppy pin on a Minor PPZ(previous highs), rather then an actual breakout pattern, which is what I use my breakout material for.

Best
Mike
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  #40837  
Old Aug 12, 2009 6:20pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Hi Mike,

Thanks for the answer. Just want to confirm something as I was just viewing some of your videos on your breakout trades. From the video, I see that you based your breakout trades on the previous highs so don't quite understand what you mean.

Does it mean that the consolidation area has to be at a PPZ then breakout above and retrace back? Not just based on the consolidation high?
Hey TT

The simplest way I can answer this is there are not enough "highs' to make that single line valid enough for me. I have even got more conservative with my breakout plays, and like to look for very clear concise patterns now. This isn't to say what you did above isn't perfectly acceptable though.

Best
Mike
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  #40839  
Old Aug 12, 2009 6:31pm
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I understand. What we are looking for is something more CONCRETE?

Something that we can see and know that others will also see as significant resistance so that once it is broken and retraces back, there is a smaller chance of it being a false breakout.

Hopefully I put my thoughts correctly.
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  #40909  
Old Aug 13, 2009 10:53am
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Originally Posted by Lugner View Post
Hello, first post here. I've been lurking and here are some setups at least loosely based on what I've learned here.

XAG I took what I have come to be known (correct me if I'm wrong) as 'Blind entry', entered market on open of the bullish PA, as I'm very bullish on long-term silver.

Long Entry: 14.57

AUDUSD is a similar trade, seeing an overall bear on USD now anyway.

Going to move stops to b/e very soon.

Comments appreciated.
Just wanted to send my welcomes and say first post? Nailed it!

Can't tell you the feeling us long timers get when a lurker comes out and nails it like that
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  #40926  
Old Aug 13, 2009 12:02pm
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Originally Posted by Grover View Post
Haven't talked about the weekly pin on GBPUSD, so I was wondering where everyone was in it (to those that took it of course). I got stopped out for a whopping 12 pips today after being up over 200 at one point. Since I'm still trying to figure out the 'take profit' side of this, should I have moved my stop up even further to get more pips, or did I do the right thing in leaving it around B/E until the weekly bar closed? I couldn't even really use the two-bar stop method on this one, since there wasn't enough bars yet (on the daily). Should I have...
Hey Grover,

Since the pin was small IMO, trying to do anything past the strong PPZ around the 1.65/66 area would be real tough. I think the best bet would be to close out around this area, or at the least do what you did and got to b/e here. Small bar, with a huge amount of potential support coming through means we must do something. IMO take profit there would make more sense, but each trader could potentially handle this one different at this zone.

Just my thoughts
Mike
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  #40935  
Old Aug 13, 2009 1:06pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Ben

PS - Mike, please correct me if I'm wrong about your exit method.
Nope you said everything great Ben. The 2bar method is a tool in my bag, and experience tells us when to use it vs hold back and protect, like you said. The last couple months I have not been trailing much b/c of the choppiness of price doesn't bode well for those types of exit strats.

Nice Post
Mike
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  #41035  
Old Aug 14, 2009 3:30pm
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Originally Posted by mike w View Post
Daily IB's are just like MBQB11's breakouts on the 4 hour. Check that out if you never have. In fact, read all of his posts. Do it. do it now. do it.
LOL Mike is on a roll today
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  #41241  
Old Aug 17, 2009 11:40am
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Guys I got 1 question that is bugging me.

I have entered a AUDJPY Weekly BEOB today and currently am in profit.

The first trouble area as you can see is much lower as I indicated in the chart....
I think it is always easier to do everything off the same timeframe. I do drop down timeframes for specific types of trades(breakouts), b/c I am looking to stay in when the trade is breaking out which can happen quicker and end quicker(ie using the volatility of a breakout and momentum to trail a trade).

For this trade we can see the potential trouble areas from the same timeframe. Plus it keeps things much simpler.

Hope everyone had a great weekend
Mike
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  #41242  
Old Aug 17, 2009 12:00pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post

PS - did I draw the hidden divergence right? First time I am using it. I'm not sure about it. Hope I have used it right.



Ben
Hey Ben

Yes that is done correctly

Best
Mike
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  #41254  
Old Aug 17, 2009 1:07pm
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
I missed this one too, but I was watching it and would have been stopped at b/e anyway... A good setup that ran enough to move to b/e but then retraced enough to have stopped me out at entry... only to run again...

Many more trade setups in our future to both miss and take DMC...

Josh
I think this is almost word for word what Aaron(tia) had in his journal on this trade


Mike
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  #41277  
Old Aug 17, 2009 11:35pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
hey now, its eleven am on a tuesday... I wont be drunk for *at least* an hour




My girlfriend pulls a gun on me



No, I completely agree. A bar chart or a candlestick chart are both just an abstraction of price, so they really tell you the same thing.

It's the same as the discussion from a few weeks ago that a DBHLC is usually just a 2-period pinbar.

My problem is more with people focusing on the 'pattern' they saw, as opposed to what it actually means - and whether it is actually tradeable.

It happens with bar charts too...
I very much agree with your post Joel, well said.

IT IS ALWAYS LOCATION. The bars, just triggers, and a mere small part of the bigger story.

Mike
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  #41280  
Old Aug 18, 2009 12:44am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Mike. I'm in this great trade and my only regret is that I took half off the table and now I'm letting the 2nd half ride.

I don't know how you don't it . . . . not taking some off the table ( actually I do know how and why you do it.)

But I just couldn't do it . . . I couldn't do it.


No regrets buddy, it isn't about this trade you know that. It is about all your trades, and you know what works for you. That is what it comes down to in the end. Confidence is very important and Jarroo has it and that is why he kills it!
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  #41328  
Old Aug 18, 2009 11:45am
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Hey Nasir

I commend you for asking for our honesty here. Not many people can handle the brutal truth.

Firstly your question on 4hr timeframe I consider it a lower timeframe, and one that should not be attempted until the J16 process on the daily/weekly is taken seriously and conquered. Of course at the end of the day, myself, james, the other vets can't tell you what to do. We can only give you all what we have been through, our experience, to try our best to get you there. This is what we teach, beyond the basics.

As for will you blow your account. Unfortunately my answer is probably. Well the reason I say that is 6-8% risk is just way to high. And two weeks as a determination of future profit is way to low. What you did the last 2 weeks, could be nothing more then a fluke. And to be honest even if you did it over a period of a few months on demo, that will more then likely not be satisfactory enough to be risking that amount. A few losses and you are in a HUGE hole very quickly. The kind of hole that makes people make irrational decisions.

My real advice is to simply trade your demo account with a more conservative risk. And take the rest of the game at the pace that your lifestyle permits. Don't be on the 1 year plan, or even the 5 year plan, be on the long term plan. I suspect there are others here that have tried to push things, but due to some simple common errors such as risking to much they couldn't remain in it long enough. It's like the PM/email I get every few months, about the person who says they have been doing great on demo, they know what they have to do, but they only have a few thousand to trade with so they are going to be super picky and risk 8-10% a trade. I warn the same thing I said to you above. So far all those have came with another email and a blow, or near blow account.

Hope you don't mind my honesty, as I feel anything less would be wrong to YOU and others here and thanks for allowing me to speak my mind too

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
In this conversation going on last 2 pages i see that every one mention daily and weekly for higher TF examples and than they directly come down to 1h and 15 min for lower TF examples.

So where does 4H stand's. I actually trade 4H mixing Pin bars and MACD patterns. But i find my entries earlier with help of 1H (don't go under 1h).

Doing that i get early into the trades, catch some extra pips and my stops get squeezed automatically too.

I have been only doing it live for past two week's (Demo for two months) and i have tripled my 90$ account...
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  #41331  
Old Aug 18, 2009 12:00pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Bottom line, after you master the lower time frames, there is more money to be done there. But you need first, master those time frames, second, have a lifestyle that fits it, and third know how to control your emotions on those time frames that is harder IMO.
This is what people BELIEVE is the truth, but the reality is trading is what you make of it. To me there is no difference b/w any timeframe like that. If you watch daily timeframes and 100 different pairs/securities etc, you have 100 potential opportunities every day. The lower timeframes are good for those that watch less securities to allow for more opportunities. But if you think of it like this. I watch ~25 pairs on the daily, 20 on the 4hr, and 20 on the 1hr. That is about ~85 pairs, same 85 "opportunities". Now this is yes a bit of a generalization, but this is to get you guys thinking in the proper way.

When we start chasing numbers around to create that 30-50% a month return, you've gone way to far off tangent. This is like typing in those 10 pips a day spreadsheets to see how much you could risk to get to a million. It really is so unproductive for a trader. Stick to trading well. The rest takes care of itself. Many people never ever trade lower then a weekly timeframe, instead they expand what they watch. So no difference if you have 20 trades a month on the hour, or 20 a month on the weekly. Opportunity is opportunity and everything is relative. Stops to size moves etc.

I know this comes up about every 20 pages, but you will never see my answer change to it, and I don't expect anyone to agree, but like my last post, i'm gonna lay it out there

Best
Mike
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  #41343  
Old Aug 18, 2009 12:40pm
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Now if i have 90$ in my account and an A+ comes in but it requires a 60 pip stop loss and minimum lot size is 1K i will have to risk 6%-7%.

But as i am standing around 250$ i did not have increased my lot size (1K) so i am risking 2%-4% on those trades at the moment.
This is really the main problem is your account size and broker is determining the parameters. Instead of you having full control and being flexibile with granularity. Be it a 60pt or 600 pt stop loss I can always get my account size properly positioned so the 1% risk I use never changes. I think you said you understand this, but this is the reality for many people who don't understand this simple yet important topic

Best
Mike
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  #41352  
Old Aug 18, 2009 1:23pm
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here is a recent trade.

Pinbar 4hr, silver. Confluence 50 and 61.8 from CLEAR swing points. 14 round number confirmed PPZ.

Where is this one going after a very steep decline? Right to that clear Bar low
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  #41363  
Old Aug 18, 2009 1:46pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i got news for you benji my friend.

money makes things easier and thats about it.

whats the greatest thing money ever did for me?

when i finally had some i still felt totally unfullfilled and it triggered a spiritual search in my life and i dont mean relegion.

a journey inwards instead of outwards.

im convinced life is just a "school" and im also convinced when its over we will have a good laugh at how silly it was for so many of us to be so neurotic about everything. me included.
this is the stuff that keeps me awake night, after night, after night.

Still learning from the big guy here, and will continue too. My favorite posts for sure
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  #41369  
Old Aug 18, 2009 2:16pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
your a seeker mike.

ive known it since the first days i met you.

you know your on "the path" when two things happen.

1. these "wonderings" begin to consume you. you literally agonize over them.

2. you begin to notice that when your mean or angry or even slightly less than kind you suffer. i mean you really suffer inside from your actions.

its an often painful road but its value is beyond description where its leading.

might be time to start that section in the group back up.
This is literally word for word where any of my anxiety in life comes from.

As for that section -

But only as it comes to you not forced, that's when we get the most
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  #41420  
Old Aug 18, 2009 5:52pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
I'm in cruise control mode right now......
amazing.
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  #41421  
Old Aug 18, 2009 5:52pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Porn Star?
HAHAHAH

even more amazing.
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  #41442  
Old Aug 19, 2009 12:56am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Good morning guys. how about this one.
Nailed it Nasir, right where it would likely stall with a small pin that 156 mark. Did you take profit? Move stops to b/e? Get some off the table?

Mike
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  #41542  
Old Aug 19, 2009 11:31am
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Hi folks - wanted to share something - and I hope that no one got hurt by these this morning, but the Yen crosses early all yielded long PB's at 8AM EST. (GJ, AJ, CJ, EJ, CADJPY all look like they are in trouble.)

Some of them *may* work out, but check out the USDJPY cross posted. Long nose PB - good. Trading into a major PPZ, without divergence - Super Bad.

As much as I feel the pull of a PB, location is just as important. Maybe more.

If that PB straddled the PPZ, and finished well above, this post would be differently worded.
Not to mention the open and close were not within the prior bar
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  #41553  
Old Aug 19, 2009 3:03pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Just got stopped out after a good run on this one, made 2% profit
After I saw I was 0.6 a pip from missing a big move, I decided to go back and trail my stops on the 1H instead of the 30min, and it paid off.



Mike, I am one of your followers (), and I have noticed You are using the BAT indicator for exits sometimes.

I have putted it on my chart for asking you something.
Will it be right to say that it is better to use the 2B exit strategy when sharp moves occur, and use the BAT when price moves more in consolidation ans slowly?
I...
Hey Ben

The intricacies of the trail is way to long to really explain here. But the summary of how I use it is. BAT(with my own settings) for breakouts and when decreased range volatility plays are breaking(hence the type of indicator it is volatility based). All my trailing stops are saved for plays that I have belief to run. In market environment like we are now I tend to set conservative targets. For my trailing stops a lot of times I am trailing on the trigger timeframe, not the pattern timeframe. You are looking to get in and stay in with momentum.

Nothing overly complicated

Mike
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  #41628  
Old Aug 20, 2009 12:04pm
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Originally Posted by TotalNewbie View Post
I hope you people can help me out here....
Again you are gonna find different people doing different things, but I am in agreement, I would have a ton of trouble trading right into that 1.65 area. That would make me very nervous.

Mike
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  #41629  
Old Aug 20, 2009 12:07pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
You need to speak to Mike. I swear that guy has only had 14 hours of sleep so far this year.

And the little *&^%*^ still looks young and fresh.

If I don't get my 8 hours I look like something out of Dawn Of The Dead
LOL i get my best night sleeps after a night out now GO FIGURE

I thought you would say like something out of Black Hawk Down, but what do i KNow :P
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  #41630  
Old Aug 20, 2009 12:09pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
What do YOU think.

You can be helped better if we hear your thoughts and why you'd take the trade.

(Then MBQB11 will find 50 reasons not too... )
LOL I think I get some people mad when I always say the reasons not to trade

But on this one, see how low that close is. Yes technically a pin cause open and close in the other bar. But that bar just looks to bearish to get to excited about for me.

No one get mad
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  #41631  
Old Aug 20, 2009 12:16pm
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Large Bearish Outside Bar englufing large range, through PPZ, divergence,
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  #41634  
Old Aug 20, 2009 12:27pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
I guess blacking out / passing out is a form of sleep
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  #41641  
Old Aug 20, 2009 12:38pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
I am going to Missississp next week to play some poker with my brother, 100k On black right Mike? What game is fun that I can play and is not a job? I was doing the dice throwing game on that big table but it moves too damn fast, also my bro just said play the pass line but that is no fun lol
Craps is hella fun, just find someone who is doing well and back their bets. You either make a ton fast, or lose your shirt real fast. Either way you can get drunk after
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  #41656  
Old Aug 20, 2009 8:32pm
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Originally Posted by Publius View Post
Hello,
I study PA for a while - I'm still amazed, really... Thanks James and all of you for all those information!

I'd like to post my chart and have some opinions about the trade management, SL strategy, etc.

Nice PINBAR, daily TF, confluence with monthly pivot and fibo 38.2
For me A+ trade - am I right?

I enterd this trade short 1.5579 earlier, because on H4 outside bar was formed, so I decided to take a sort. It went sideways for a while and the bang... down Now I have SL on BE.

What would you recommend to do next? I just train on demo...
Hey P

This is my exact chart I had already marked up for someone else prior to this trade executing. The blue are the trouble areas. First one was hit and stopped right there. Is it wrong to hold a trade? No. It's more important to understand where these areas are and then react accordingly. I personally use information such as the size of a bar to decide to hold or not through these areas. This is one such size bar that would put me in the take profit mode. Simply for my style that is.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #41657  
Old Aug 20, 2009 8:33pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Forex dead? No trades? The answer could be closer than you think

Attachment 293000

*edit* 6 cents per lb might not sound like much... but take into account that each contract is for 37,500lbs

I've made about $9k demobux off the last two pins. And that is with *missing* the big bullish outside enveloping awesomebar in the middle.

As of next week, softs are going live
man that one pin is a beauty!
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  #41670  
Old Aug 20, 2009 10:26pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hi Mike master of breakouts I need your advice.

I have been looking for some breakout patterns today and found this lovely exotic pair EURSEK. It was squeezing during the last month, and it is with the trend. In addition, there are no special trouble areas in the way, so it can catch a good run.

My only concern is that divergence. Do you skip good setups when you have that kind of divergence at extreme low? looking scary to me

By the way, boring day for me....no good enough trade opportunities...patient, discipline, patient, discipline...

Ben...
Hey Ben

Here is a post I made in the PF.

I will trade breakouts like this, but I am well aware of the divergence, and know not to get greedy. This presents us with opportunities not only to the downside but the long side. The question was with oversold/bought conditions and I used the eur/sek in my breakout thread as an example

[quote=mbqb11;34916]
Basically you can sort of see it, but MACD helps hint at this for me too. When a pair becomes over extended you can sort of feel a retrace is in order.

Here is an example, of a likely scenario that I see happen quite often. You can see if we make a new low here (with this breakout) we are going to have this extreme MACD. There is almost no way that the MACD can catch up to price before their is a spring back or some kind of retracement.


Again I would say some is just seeing a chart, and you get a feel, but from the technicals we can see quite a bit to be ready to watch nice areas.

Hope that helps!
Mike[/QUOTE
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  #41671  
Old Aug 20, 2009 10:30pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I'm sure it was not only the size of that PB that helped your decision Mike. The PB looks a little crowded, like it was stuffed in an over loaded elevator. lol

Your statement above is an important one. Once we understand where these "trouble areas" are, the next step is to "react accordingly". Meaning there is an "action" on our part. An action to the management of our trade. Move to Break Even, take partial or full profits, etc.

Its a crucial part of the trade management on any given PA setup.

Jim
Yes you are very correct sir
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  #41735  
Old Aug 21, 2009 12:19pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Yea absolutely!

Sometimes I feel I get too much braggart. I don't mean that...but it's a weird situation. I am 16 years old (yea, there is someone younger than you here LOL) hardly 2-3 months trading and its too easy.
I see many people over another forum crying after years of time and money wasted.
At least I got rid of those PONZI schemes and MLMs I was into

I think it's the hand of god Johnny introduced me to this thread! I'm sure.

Ben
16?! WTF! I couldn't even post what I was doing at 16.

You sir have a bright future you have no idea.

I swear every 6 months someone younger and younger is TRADING! Soon it will be a 7 year old on here passing on this info

Kudos to you

Mike
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  #41741  
Old Aug 21, 2009 1:06pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
My son is 12 and reads it... Although I don't allow him to post. He is a PB maven.
That's awesome, we have another member in the PF that son is I think 13? also and says he is doing GREAT!

Blows my mind.
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  #41759  
Old Aug 22, 2009 11:59am
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Originally Posted by Bocajunior View Post
Big hello to all here,

I've been a long time lurker and I guess its out of order that I have taken so long to actually make a post. This is a great thread and it is only in the last few months that I feel I have actually got anywhere as a trader, despite being trading for almost three years now. Hope to be a regular contributer here from now on.

Cheers
Boca
This is exactly what it's all about

Welcome Boca
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  #41762  
Old Aug 22, 2009 12:14pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
We need to start a thread on this... Too young to drink, but old enough to swing it in the markets!
haha if you can slug it out with the markets, you should be allowed a cold beverage
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  #41764  
Old Aug 22, 2009 12:53pm
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Originally Posted by fxvision View Post
Anyone trading EUR/JPY to the long side these days?

Long myself from the 133 area from smaller TF.
Hope all is well FXV, always liked your charts and am in agreement with that outlook as well

Mike
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  #41771  
Old Aug 22, 2009 2:19pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Let's talk turkey.

Since the markets are not highly predictable - if they were, we'd all trade much differently, how do you two guys come to arrive at a bias? Unless you are talking lower time frame...

I'm very curious about people do that - especially in light of where we are on the chart.

Do you find it helps?...
Hey SP

I had a recent question about this somewhere in the PF with these two charts

I formulate scenarios in my head, not neccersarily a bias. I don't like to be bias either, I think it cloud judgement. I just stare at a chart enough and I see what is the "likely" scenario. Now that doesn't even mean I will trade it, if things still don't line up to my method. Examples come on many recent pairs, I knew exactly what was going to take place(check my last like 7 webinars). I basically spelled it out on a few of them. And guess what? I didn't get a single one of them b/c nothing lined up to meet my criteria. It's simply something I can't help doing when looking at a chart. I could do it with any chart, but I still will look for the same things. Now when my criteria lines up with one of those formulated plans, it simply helps me react better from feeling caught off guard.

here are my two posts with the charts. I do the same thing on all timeframes really. Can't even help it

_________________

[QUOTE=mbqb11;33893]I could have put this in any one of my threads but just threw it in here. People have been asking me what my bias is. I try not to be bias with the markets. As they are always right. But I do formulate "ideas" of what I would prefer to see happen(yes I know that is a bias LOL). Hopefully that idea though doesn't cloud the possibility in my mind for something completely different to happen and allow me to react.

Here is gbp/jpy. Notice at the 160 level above it we have a BOX(block of consolidation). This means a pullback now to 160 is usually going to act as STRONG resistance. Great area now to watch for a pullback for me. Notice it happened again to the long side previously(the first box).

Mike QUOTE]


___________________________________ ________



[quote=mbqb11;34766]
Here is an update to this chart. This is what should give you all the confidence that this stuff works, it happens time and time again if we are patient. QUOTE]
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  #41842  
Old Aug 23, 2009 6:46pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Cool

Thanks squeezy. Just read all Mike and Jim posts, it's only them.
Here is one I was monitoring last week, but didn't take. It isn't the best example...I hoped it will squeeze a bit more.

Ben
Clean and simple, very nice Ben
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  #41853  
Old Aug 24, 2009 2:40am
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Originally Posted by Bocajunior View Post
Hello again,

Just browsing and one chart that caught my eye was GBPCHF on D1.

I know its early doors Monday but I will be monitoring price action at the current area for a signal to suggest that prices are ready to move higher in the direction of the longer term trend.

IB possibly forming at the lower PPZ in 1.7450 area.
Longer term trend is up.
Plenty space to run up to mid PPZ above at 1.7750.

Opinions welcome.

Boca
Hey Boca

I definitely agree this is a very important level/ppz. I am not particularly biased to a long or a short as I can see reasons for both to occur. I tried to block of some of the consolidation above us that could make a long very difficult, as well as we are sitting on support to. I love these areas, but I am patient for strong signals. Yes an IB could be an indication of a breakout both long or short too.

Best
Mike
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  #41894  
Old Aug 24, 2009 10:47am
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
And a Yankees win...

Only then will he pull the trigger.


Don't upset SP again , next he has to worry about Jim's Rangers taking the wild card and his prediction that the yanks wouldn't make the Playoffs might come back to really haunt him :P
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  #41895  
Old Aug 24, 2009 10:49am
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Originally Posted by Bocajunior View Post
Hi Mike,

Thanks for your repsonse and this brings me to an important question regarding trading in the direction of the longer term trend.

I'm throwing this out there for discussion, but what are your thoughts regarding trading against the major trend? I know there are many different ways to determine what that trend direction is and whether a market is range bound or not and the whole thing can get a bit subjective, but do you consider the longer term trend when making a trading decision?

Thanks
Boca
Hey Boca,

The trend really isn't all that important to me in terms of taking a trade. What happens when you trade with a strong trend for me means that I might be more likely to give it room to run. But it still comes down to what is around the actual trade itself. So it is difficult for me to make a blanketed statement one way or the other. Some of my best long terms trades come from extreme counter trend price action. Essentially yes picking a top or bottom. But if you get a beautiful pullback with strong confluence with the prevailing trend, it usually helps me trade through the first trouble areas with confidence. Again situational, but hopefully this gives you some idea.

Hope it helps
Mike
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  #41897  
Old Aug 24, 2009 11:06am
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Hey Cyrus

My take would be as follow. Firstly and mostly if one uses a buffer(which I always do), a buy order above the pin would have never got triggered. Next you are right this bar doesn't sit right for the following reasons for me. Small bar compared to the large strong down move we are in(falling knife). The poor close. It closed very low barely inside the other bar(lack of conviction). And lastly not really any strong confluence supporting a trade like that. You can see where it bounced off, the low from 2 bars prior). These are the types of trades I think end up smoking most of the traders on the 4hr before they learn the higher timeframes(in general this is what I tend to notice the most in doing this).

Just my take
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Hi Guys,

Noticed a USDCAD pinbar last friday towards the close of the week.

Somehow, didn't quite sit right with me, and I spent the weekend wondering why.

Here's my 2pips... if the seniors and more experienced folk here could chip in their valued opinions, I'd appreciate it tremendously.

Anyways, here are the main points
(1) 4hour PB looked relatively small compared to the size of the candles during the down move.
(2) The Daily charts had a 2bar Pin + BE Outside Pinbar.
I like using stochastics, and those were overbought as well.
IMHO,...
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  #41899  
Old Aug 24, 2009 11:29am
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Originally Posted by Trader100 View Post
Hi. I want to know how many different price action figures there are?
I know that there are Double bar low with a higher close and other basic figures.
If anyone of you have time could you please tell me what kind of a figures u know? Thanks.
Hey T,

The basic patterns are

Pinbars
Outside Bars(Buobs, Beobs)
DBHLC, DBLHC
Inside Bars(I4bs)
TBH/TBL (two bar high, two bar low).
BEBs(bearish Bars)
BuB(Bullish Bars)

A few variation to these as people use. Example combining bars to form the above patterns.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #41903  
Old Aug 24, 2009 11:33am
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That helps a lot but I don't know how many of those look like
Hey T,

Start with post 1 and work your way through very slowly. Those patterns are explained by James near the beginning and then throughout the thread. Also check out this post that has a summary of some of the basics of these patterns, it is a very good over view of the basics.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

But most of the patterns are explained by the big man himself on the first hundred or so pages, then we get a bit more in how to apply them as you work through. As you go through it ask questions if you have any

Best
Mike
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  #41908  
Old Aug 24, 2009 11:53am
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Originally Posted by Trader100 View Post
I found all I need except
BEBs(bearish Bars)
BuB(Bullish Bars)

Could you show me how these two look like?
Here ya go, no one I know actually trades off these , but simply uses them for more information
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  #41912  
Old Aug 24, 2009 11:58am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Yes.

You want lot's of these to define a "strong" up trend,

Wonder if they can ever be of any trading value Mike? ...
I will use them as information for a trade I am currently in. A strong BUB, BEB generally means (as per James) we should see at least a test of that bars high. Good place to watch and see how things develop. It's all little information to make up the book were reading

Mike
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  #41933  
Old Aug 24, 2009 2:33pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
I like breakouts, but unlike Mike and others, I only like the horizontal lines for a breakout. I cannot always decide where a TL should go, and it makes me uncomfortable. Trend line break guys are the smart guys around here...

In the case of this pair, Lets hope for a pullback and some solid PA to the 8700 in the next few days. But it would not be a surprise at all if price right back into the horizontal channel and stayed there for while ... Comfy and warm in there....
you give me too much credit SP, My trendlines are usually ones my grandma could spot
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  #41942  
Old Aug 24, 2009 3:07pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post

Edit: Mike, do you care to share your average win rate and R:R of this setup only? please..?
breakouts tend to range in the lower 60% range and a bit under 2r
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  #41943  
Old Aug 24, 2009 3:17pm
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Originally Posted by Lapin View Post
Hi all,

After some break of FF and demoing for cause of baby boy, I am back with high willingness of getting my facts right.

I am trying to look at A+ setups but this one on EJ caught my eyes.
It is not an IB still since the bar has not close but for the sake of the arguments let's suppose it is an IB.

This is how I see things right now.

The PB is spot on the 136 PPZ. There is a lot of support/resistance so even if it has been broken I think we could consider this as a valid PPZ. Am I right or wrong?

There is a confluence with fib so I...
Hey Lapin

I would just be careful here, the problem with this trade and a choppy sideways market is you run into all sorts of problems. To the downside you are essentially trading right into the 135 round number, if you look under that there is some heavy support that could come in. I marked it in blue on my chart.

Best
Mike
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  #41959  
Old Aug 24, 2009 6:38pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
I cant even express how happy I am that I found this thread. Before, things like this would have been a complete shock, stopped me out for a loss and probably tilted me into doing something stupid.

Instead, now I see a bar move through recent support/resistance and move my stop to the base of the bar, then play the pin on the way back up for almost a full point each way.

Attachment 294813
That is a beautiful thing Joel
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  #42038  
Old Aug 25, 2009 10:46am
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Originally Posted by fxvision View Post
Yes, sry.. just cut it out quickly. Got a nice entry on it above 155. Gonna see if that bottom range on the 4H is going to be challenged. If you were standing in a dealer room these minutes you would be hearing screaming and yelling and phones and computers sweating liquid metal...
hahahah this is so true. My email box also starts going Ding Ding.
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  #42039  
Old Aug 25, 2009 10:48am
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Yes, sry.. just cut it out quickly. Got a nice entry on it above 155. Gonna see if that bottom range on the 4H is going to be challenged. If you were standing in a dealer room these minutes you would be hearing screaming and yelling and phones and computers sweating liquid metal...
In the same exact way as FXV here, Go figure :P got in lower though. Usually the knocking on the door with strong support above, means the market wants to clear what is underneath before going higher which is what I presume looks to be happening.

Mike
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  #42046  
Old Aug 25, 2009 12:43pm
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Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Guys this is a newb question. But I took this trade and posted it yesterday. The pin as i stated in my post was not the real selling point of this trade to me, it was the1.75 level of heavy heavy heavy resistance. Lately I have been trading with the trend only and it has been great. I have been applying the 2 bar stop method and I like ti because it takes emotion out of it. One thing that I am doing though is moving my stop if a bar end up in a pin turning the opposite way. I put my stop where that red line is on my chart after that little pin bar...
yes this is correct D, you sell at the bid and buy at the ask. So you would have to add that back in to prevent your stop from being hit. This is something I am always aware of.

Best
mIke
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  #42049  
Old Aug 25, 2009 1:14pm
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thanks, I need to be aware of that I could still be in at 3:1 :-(
No need to frown, one trade has taught you something for a lifetime of trades. Seems pretty good deal to me
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  #42075  
Old Aug 25, 2009 6:41pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hey guys, sorry for all my posts lol....but I must post this for example.
I was out most of the day today...so missed many goodies.

Look at the yen pair. This is a good round number example. Not large R:R, but I would still take it.

What do you think?

Ben
Hey Ben,

I took the eur/jpy on the 4hr to taht first zone. I took the 15min BEOB of the gbp/jpy, but used the 30min and 1hr as it developed with the same concepts in mind as well


Mike
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  #42152  
Old Aug 26, 2009 11:54am
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Originally Posted by Lapin View Post
Guys,

Looks like EURGBP is being rejected by .8800.
If it closes as a PB I would classify it as a A setup since we have confluence with Fibs.
Do you agree?
My first TP would be around .8700.

I have a question regarding which points to choose for the fibs retracement.
I had the choice between A and B on the graph.
B gives me a nice confluence, with A it is less conclusive.
Since confluence is THE point to look for I was wondering which point is more logical to take.

Cheers
Mine would look something to this extent(there is another one from the largest swing point).
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  #42170  
Old Aug 26, 2009 2:54pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post

anyone under 18 needs to speak out right now.
I just turned 17
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  #42173  
Old Aug 26, 2009 3:03pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
which is just slightly less than the total of the 10 to 9 loos your yanks took to my rangers last night.

asdffffffffjlk;asfd
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  #42177  
Old Aug 26, 2009 3:18pm
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hey mbqb11 how did spelling of loss changed into loos in your post when you quoted James.
i'm so fast at quoting he prob went back with spell checker
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  #42212  
Old Aug 26, 2009 6:43pm
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Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
Hm
Minnesota Vikings all the way now !
Dude I am such a big Vikings FAN! HERE WE GO SKOL VIKINGS

FAVRE BABY!
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  #42216  
Old Aug 26, 2009 6:46pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i knew mike would jump on that like a bum on a bologna sandwich.

im gonna throw up.
HAHAH please give us vikings fans a break. We will take anything at this point. I was considering going for QB tryouts
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  #42219  
Old Aug 26, 2009 6:49pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Farve might as well be dead..

& in purple... wth

did you see what the dolphins did to him last year... & were sposed to be crap
Jeff what did I ever do to you!
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  #42225  
Old Aug 26, 2009 6:53pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
to tell you the truth ive always been a closet vikings fan.

first time i have ever admitted it and i have always liked the packer guy.

OH MAN I JUST LAUGHED OUT LOUD! That is like a mini victory for a vikings fan.

I hate the Giants, so I root for the cowboys. Still sour from the playoff loss that was our year.
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  #42236  
Old Aug 26, 2009 7:11pm
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Originally Posted by artov View Post
I've developed a love for price action and a deep, very deep hatred for the fancy systems based on lagging indicators, which promise you financial independece within a couple of months by taking 6 trades a day on a small account.
You and me both, thanks for the nice post
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  #42253  
Old Aug 26, 2009 8:00pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
couldnt resist.

1972 Dolphin team. 17-0.

griese signed and number 17 of 17.

yes it cost me some cash.
that aint nothing compared to the stuff I've seen from Jim too
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  #42269  
Old Aug 26, 2009 9:18pm
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Originally Posted by Thierry89 View Post
Hello to all
Do you open this trade on the breakout 1.2345 or to the next candle close 1.2288 ?
Thanks for your advices
Hey Thierry

Your sell order would go below those bar lows. So a sell stop below those bars to make sure they break, for the breakout.

Best
Mike
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  #42345  
Old Aug 27, 2009 10:49am
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
you make it look so easy benji. I always just find someway to over analyse and muddle myself up
Benji knows this from PMs, but he seriously caught this stuff so good I can't even believe it. Most people over complicate, over hink. I told him and believe this is true that his age being so young. He is so open, and not corrupted in the brain. James always says it's what is between your ears that stops you from becoming a good trader. I think years of learning bad habits is the problem. Ben is as pure as they come. I told him not to change a thing in my PM to him. If he stays on the KISS route, he will be just fine(more then fine)

Mike
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  #42347  
Old Aug 27, 2009 10:52am
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Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
As Mike would say -

"Pure Money Make"

LOL

Do I really have all these horrible catch phrases? I am going to have to watch it.

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  #42349  
Old Aug 27, 2009 10:57am
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Mike,

Just wanted to say Thank you I was actually getting more and more confused these few days as I saw everyone taking different
I went back to see your video that you created: PinbarIntroduction.wmv

(err I remember that was you right? lolz)

and finally had a clear idea of the location I am looking.


Thank you
it will be great to meet my 10 - 20% target per month.

Cheers.

Great location + Super PPZ at a big whole number and a PA is good enough for me to take the trade hehe
Hey T

You are quite welcome, and I am happy you are having some lights click on. There will be many more along the way. Just focus on learning to trade, demoing and being discipline/patient. But that last line about 10-20% target scares the crap out of me(to be completely honest). One of the WORST things new traders learning to be profitable can do is set these goals. Especially these very high goals. There are many posts in here about what is realistic vs what isn't. Every trader, different results for sure. My focus of this post is, don't think about the WHAT COULD BE'S. Focus on ONE thing only. Becoming profitable. Picking good trades. The profits WILL take care of themselves.

Again glad to see you are making progress, makes me happy, truly.

Best
Mike
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  #42354  
Old Aug 27, 2009 11:13am
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Hi Gurus and fellow traders.

Was wondering if one of the seniors could clue me up on a pinbar question.

Are pinbars that form during news spikes as valid as those formed during normal trading. I have been searching to see if this has been answered before but could not find it. Sorry if it has been addressed previously.

Love the thread by the way.

A51
Hey A51,

No gurus here for sure BUT

The answer is yes. Reason being? I don't bat an eye to news. Means nothing to me.

As James says " I avoid news like the plague." Meaning he doesn't pay attention to it. Let the charts do the talking

Hope t hat helps
Mike
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  #42361  
Old Aug 27, 2009 12:18pm
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Hey Mike
Thanks for that and thanks for the quick response.

I do dissagree however. There are a few Gurus in here.

I'd also like to add that I have been reading this thread for some time and I didnt think that such a close knit community could exist in cyberspace.

Feels more like a family. You should all be proud of this forum.




A51
welcome to the Family

It is crazy how close we are here. Few bumps in the road, but they don't last long :P

Mike
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  #42371  
Old Aug 27, 2009 1:49pm
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Comments seasoned FX pro's (and others); Looking at this pair to buy becasue;

PB with trend
At support
At 50ema
Off trend line

Thoughts?

BTW this has gotta be the best thread on the net!
Hey G,

That bar is actually a BUOB because it engulfs the prior bar. Also we want to see these bars at swing low points, this is a swing high point. It isn't that they can't be played here, but it is my suggestion to stick to the basics of how we play them before moving to what I considered a bit more advanced in playing them at swing highs. So we want to see that bar located at a swing low point. This isn't to say these trades don't work out, but IMO they are more difficult to manage when new to the material.>

Welcome to the thread, and I agree with you and let me know if you have more questions


Mike
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  #42374  
Old Aug 27, 2009 2:13pm
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Mike, James thanks for prompt response & answers. As you correctly state its an OB would this not constitute continuation of the trend?

Seriously I will not name 'names' but this thread is awesome in content & in timeliness and let me say i am no youngster easily excited type of guy...
Yeah these bars can certainly be played as continuations, but the problem is for most people if you play them at the wrong spot you are immediately trading into a new high which can be the reversal point. Of course once you get good at PA you can trade them anywhere you have good confluence, but it is my recommendation in the beginning to stick to the way James expalins here which is

BUOBs/bullish pins/DBLHC at swing low points
BEOBS(see ex below)/bearish pins/DBHLC at swing high points.

Again welcome and please ask questions as needed
Mike
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  #42472  
Old Aug 28, 2009 2:43pm
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Thats the fastest 4 hr time frame trade I ever did. (see my last post)

Nice way to end the week :-)

Have a great weekend guys

FXP
awesome dude. Can't lie those quick ones are the best LOL.
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  #42545  
Old Aug 30, 2009 1:08pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
I know that mbqb11 cancels his order if the next bar doesn't trigger his entry 99% of the time.
Yes this is mostly the truth, except for as 2mas said those times where we might get clear PA that is still strong. But 99% of the time I am out. This has kept me out of 100s of bad trades I couldn't even count.

Again it comes down to your personal comfort as it always will but that is mine.

Best
Mike
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  #42547  
Old Aug 30, 2009 1:47pm
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hello every one,

I have a question about your trading styles.

HOW DO YOU MONITOR YOUR CHARTS.

1- You see a PB, IB, OB, DBHLC and DBLHC. then you zoom out to see where is it formed I.E near a PPZ, FIB LEVEL, MA, SWING H/L or a TREND LINE.

OR

2- You draw you PPZ, TREND LINES, Check out for FIB LEVELS and MA'S and then you wait for a PB, IB, OB, DBHLC and DBLHC to appear.

THANK's.
Hey Nasir

I personally do a little bit of both. I do have specific areas I am watching with confluence, but also sometimes you just have to be a bit more flexible when a huge nice bar shows up and see if it is playable. So my answer is both

Mike
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  #42553  
Old Aug 30, 2009 4:13pm
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Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
Hi, I hope everybody's weekends were good.

I have a question which I've been thinking about for a while.

Let's say that we find two nice bullish pin bars, both in good locations.

The first is EURUSD and the second is EURGBP (this is just an imaginary example)

They're both good, but only the EURGBP is a real A+ setup.

Now, here comes the twist: when we then flip through the many pairs, we find that the USD is weaker than the GBP and this weakness is suggested to continue by looking at PA on the GBPUSD pair.

Now we have this: GBP is stronger...
The simplest answer and what I believe is the best is ignore EVERYTHING else, and simply trade that one chart. If you have an A+ setup, then trade that and trade it based on that chart alone. It rarely lies if we put all the info together properly

Hope you had a good weekend as well
Mike
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  #42554  
Old Aug 30, 2009 4:14pm
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Hi guys,

Just wanted to put this up so you guys know...

My university starts from tomorrow and I'll be there for just as much time as I am at home trading and posting/reading at FF.

Besides I am commencing some of my trading research projects that I've lined up for quite some time. Whatever extra time I have I aim to utilize it looking beyond what I know into the unseen and unknown to discover the true world behind those price bars, so obviously I won't be just as available as up till now,

I'll obviously drop back for a while here and there,...
catch ya soon Ghous, take care

Mike
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  #42565  
Old Aug 30, 2009 7:38pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Understanding is one thing... and trading pin off of support live, without...
so true(although I haven't met anyone who has actually peed themselves :P ).

That's why when Jim says it is all whats going on b/w your ears, he ain't lying.

Takes time folks, but then it really does become second nature it feel. That is what consistency is and why you see certain traders do the SAME things over and over and over......
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  #42611  
Old Aug 31, 2009 12:02am
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watching over here, but enjoying all you getting some nice pips!


Mike
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  #42612  
Old Aug 31, 2009 12:03am
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Originally Posted by pipsdaily View Post
While we all know that an election was held in Japan over the weekend, I was shocked when I opened my charts about an hour ago and saw the attached image of USD/JPY. The same applied to CAD/JPY AND AUD/JPY. I have few questions. I could ask "did you see that?!!" i.e. is did these meteorites pass through all charts across the globe or are they unique to my borker. Secondly, what can we conclude going forward? What will happen if any of these charts create pinbars at the close of the 1DAY charts today? Simply put I'm struggling to interpret what...
Hey Pips

That is a bad data feed spike. Oanda corrects those pretty fast. If a move like that occurred on a spike we would have some serious bigger issues to worry about :P

Mike
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  #42685  
Old Aug 31, 2009 12:10pm
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Originally Posted by FinnTrader View Post
I have taken 3 trades today. Everyone of them now at least BE. Not A+ setups, but good enough to trade?

1. AUDUSD Daily PB

Beautiful PB closing below 0.84. Target was the two lows at 0.8240. Ran 34pips to my way, so I wasn't going to watch that ending up a loss. So closed it at BE +1.

2. USDCHF two 4H PBs

Strong PPZ and I was aware of the S/R level at 1.0585 so I put stop to BE there. I took half of the profit at 1.0565 (+36pips) and I'm going to let the rest run hoping to get below the 1.0520-1.0530 support.

3. USDJPY 4H PB

I know there's...

Hey Finntrader

I am very happy to see that you played these all with a TIGHT string. Meaning you knew they weren't the best of setups(mostly number 2 and 3), and that you were not going to take a full loss. My real advice on these would be to be a bit more stricter on your entry criteria and it will bring your trading to a whole new level. For example the usd/chf are very very small bars. My advice when people play them is though to do exactly what you did, you just can't mess around and on the 4hr too many better trades WILL pop up. Same for usd/jpy it is a small pin at a swing low, as we want to see them at swing highs since you are now trading right into that new low. Again though, I have a feeling you knew these were less then stellar and that is why you put them on a tight leash.

Keep it up
MIke
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  #42688  
Old Aug 31, 2009 12:25pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
4) Should I go kick a footy through my mum's window and blame it on a guy from the internet called joel?
No.


LOL very nice Joel.

The reality again like Joel said, is that if any of the tools we show here are used wrong YOU will lose. It is about learning to use the tools in an effective and intelligent way. Yeah of course it takes time, and there are a few ways to use them. I never trade divergence by itself without a price bar. Nor do I trade divg plus a bad bar. Divergence + a good healthy PA bar at a nice spot is KILLER. In fact someone who trades say Divergence + double top + Nice PA, will do better then 99.9% of this forum. Yep you heard me say it

Learn the tools and learn how to put them together, and really what is there to stop you?

Thanks again Joel, you know I enjoy all your posts, I have a feeling our brains work in a VERY similar way.

Mike
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  #42691  
Old Aug 31, 2009 12:36pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Here is another nice one by my style

Pin off a round number. Closes above the number and within the prior bar + space (looks like a yummy cherry).

Entry with buy limit on the round number....

Words can't describe what this thread and people here gave me this summer (month)....a lot for sure.

It is so easy now. Thanks of you guys.
sick trade benji
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  #42701  
Old Aug 31, 2009 1:25pm
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ghous - this is what I get on mine; any thoughts? Point taken re the levels
yes be careful with bars like that. Although price can move lower on them, we have to really think if this bar is enough to warrant a reversal WORTH trading. A very small pinbar can mean to me simply a pause before a resumption up. Without more confluence, we are more or less flipping a coin, especially on a choppy pair like this. These to me are very easy no trades day in and day out.

Best
Mike
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  #42703  
Old Aug 31, 2009 1:29pm
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Originally Posted by Grousman View Post
Maybe I am trying to "talk myself into the trade" but if you look at
around 7th July there is clear resistance at this level.
Could this move down? Yes. will it? Maybe. Is this really worth our hard earned money? Well again maybe, but for me it is a clear no. Especially on a 4hr chart, scroll through we see so much more clear bars that we don't have to even have doubts about. We can still figure out where this might likely stall, watch and observe and sit and wait. Always remember it is not about trading, it really is about waiting. If I never made one post again after this one it would be that if you all can be really really picky you have a shot at this.

Best
Mike
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  #42711  
Old Aug 31, 2009 5:34pm
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Originally Posted by faizal82 View Post
nice pin at swing high
1.5800 round number / ppz
lots of space

already taken 2/3 of at 1st sign of trouble 1.5700. stop moved to b/e.
nailed it my friend! This is it!
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  #42714  
Old Aug 31, 2009 5:58pm
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Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
I'm going to pass on it, I feel I should be more picky than that.

Time for some beauty sleep
Hey no worries. I pass on setups left and right then end up working out. But the good ones are pretty stress free and do their thing. The main thing is sure it is hinting up, and I do believe we will move higher at least till 152.50 area, but I would like to see another push down and some bigger reaction around 150.

Enjoy your sleep! (ps the trades I know that are bad for me is when I enter and can't sleep and wake up every 15-30 mins running to the comp, I tend to close em right out if I am discipline enough).

Mike
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  #42716  
Old Aug 31, 2009 6:05pm
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
excuse my lack of knowledge but what would make g/j better? Its at a swing low with some space. I know the pin isnt text book. Would a more convincing body be better and no upper wick? sorry I dont talk in bar form I only can understand candlesticks better
Hey Matt

For me, the problem is simply the nose isn't long enough compared to this recent downward move. So longer tail. And also technically speaking the body(open and close) are not within the prior bar. We have some gap issues that caused this, so this could be a pin by proxy using the candle from 8/27. But at the end of the day, I would just simply prefer a longer nose to actually trade it. Doesn't mean others can't trade it. Just part of my plan and since I know the bars I like to trade it really isn't a matter of if it does go I missed out etc.

Hope that helps

Mike
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  #42719  
Old Aug 31, 2009 6:14pm
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
ok thanks alot for your help. So you would prefer something looking like this
If you moved that bar over to today with the nose sticking out like todays and through 150, I would be all over that bad boy. A lot of these less then A setups still give pips, they just need to be managed with the mindset I am not going to take a full loss, I am not going to take a full loss, I will take what I can get , or get my stop to b/e etc.

Best
Mike
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  #42736  
Old Aug 31, 2009 11:14pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I hope there wasn't any golf balls with thoses golf tees in the 2nd pic. . . . . ah oh.
I want to hear the stories when one got "lost". One of those bad boys had to get out sometime.
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  #42807  
Old Sep 1, 2009 8:24am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
This kid is like butter . . . he's on a roll.

Mike, are you sure you don't have any kids?
I sure as hell hope not
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  #42810  
Old Sep 1, 2009 8:32am
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Originally Posted by verno View Post
I have a question on the USDCAD daily PB. So it broke nicely downwards but then retraced. On my chart the green line is the daily PB break and the pink is the double 4 hrly PB.

My question is should I be shorting this retrace based on the fact that the daily PB is still valid. Or should I stay out given the PB has been validated and has moved down but then bounced. Therefore if I was in the original trade I would probably have now been stopped at BE on the retrace?

Just wondering how people play these?
My answer verno, is you either got in the first time, and did something by now(since this was a pin in traffic), or you now stand aside and wait. If you enter now you are chasing an entry that already did its thing and now anything is possible

Best
Mike
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  #42811  
Old Sep 1, 2009 8:36am
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Originally Posted by Grousman View Post
I am looking at taking this long because;

PB which indicates a rejection of PPZ
With short term trend
Overlapping fib levels
Retrace of last move up

Comments?
Have to be really careful with these pins. This one is in a ton of traffic(no space). What this means is that first trouble area can and will disrupt the pin more then likely. So you have to be nimble. As you can see this did exactly what we would have expected.

Best
Mike
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  #42813  
Old Sep 1, 2009 11:24am
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Originally Posted by verno View Post
Thanks Mike, I actually looked at it a couple of hours ago (but only just got round to posting) and left it because the 4hrly trend wasn't inline with trade direction and the required stop was a bit large.

In general would you say a retrace to original break is ok to play if its within a reasonable timeframe of original break?
In all honesty, I think you either get in on the break or you wait it out. If you miss something just wait for the next one.

That's how I say it

Best
Mike
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  #42815  
Old Sep 1, 2009 11:47am
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Originally Posted by Rocket! View Post
Hi Mike, just wondering if by "or you wait it out", you mean wait for different PA at confluence or you mean something else?

Do you play any sort of retraces without reaffirming Price Action. eg. Bearish Pin: say, theres a retrace to the break, or the 50/61 fib of pin high to swing low of the break of that pin, and the price just stalls at one of those marks. Would you ever enter with original pin high as stop or is this a big no-no??

Sorry if this has been asked and answered many times over.

Thanks
Hey Rocket

When I see a pin I want to play, my order goes above /below the break of that pin, and the rest is trade mgmt. I never play retrace entries or anything else. Just straight up like that. I like to keep it very simple

Best
Mike
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  #42817  
Old Sep 1, 2009 12:05pm
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Originally Posted by Rocket! View Post
Thanks Mike. Clears things up for me. Why stress yourself out when you can keep things simple with A+ trades.

One last question, with regards to your management of the trade - do you move to BE quickly or do you like to wait and see how it reacts at your first Trouble Area before you modify your original Stop/TP levels? Thats probably too broad and generalised of a question so I understand if you don't have an clear cut answer. Each trade is subjective to a certain degree.

Oh, heres a 1hr pin on the EUR/JPY. I didnt take it, but I thought it...
Hey Rocket

It really depends on each situation. In a choppier market, I set take profits. In more trending markets I tend to trail(or breakouts). So I try to decide each situation. So unfortunately like you said it is tough to give you a flat out answer. If it is a super A+++ trade I am not going to let the first trouble area scare me out, at least not right away. Markets like we have been in, that first trouble are tends to be my take profit area or I watch it and see what happens etc.

Best
Mike
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  #42820  
Old Sep 1, 2009 12:14pm
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Originally Posted by FinnTrader View Post
I have a question concerning stop losses when trading pin bars.

Some suggest that stop should be placed below/above the whole pin bar meaning often hundreds of pips on bigger time frames. This kills the risk/reward, but losses should be very rare if managed tightly.

Others tend to use small 30-40 pip stops. Then losses happen more often, but r/r gets better.


Which style do you prefer?


I have noticed that when a pin bar breaks it often gives the reaction immediately with zero drawdown so I quess the smaller stops should be more profitable way...
Hey Finn

You could ask 10 traders and get 10 different answers. I always place my stop loss above the high/low and calculate my position size according to that. I also do not care about R:R, in the end the profits take care of themselves if you are trading and managing your trades accordingly. Also this doesn't mean it is all or none. Very often I cut out my trades for less then where my stop loss is, either via a trail, or s/r, or if I am not liking how a trade is going. I am not afraid to take 1/4% loss and move on etc. R:R is meaningless to me, some trades run some don't. I took a gbp/jpy trade that ran last week, and took a usd/cad yest that ran .2% a solid entry with proper mgmt will take care of you.

Some will use tight stops to get a larger position but your losses will be higher, at the full percent. Some people see 200 pip stop and scream. But the reality is that 200 pips simply represents the same porition of my account % wise that a 20 or 30 pip stop would represent. I am looking for consistent gains over the months, and for me my comfort zone is placing my stops above / below the bar to give my trades the room to run, or me the opportunity to close out when I see fit.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #42844  
Old Sep 1, 2009 7:26pm
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How do I know when to buy or sell when I have consecutive matching lows or highs ?
Hey Atton welcome to the thread

Matching highs and lows are generally played on a break of those bars. So if you have matching lows/highs you would put a sell/buy below/above respectfully.

Here are some examples


Mike
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  #42867  
Old Sep 2, 2009 1:17pm
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Hey Josh

I will just put in my thoughts on this subject.

I do both and all of the above. I always place a stop loss below/above a bar. But many times I know going into a trade hey, there is no way I am taking that full bar loss. Now even know that, it doesn't mean it isn't possible that I will. OK so what does that mean?

Well say I am trading a big BUOB. Say this BUOB runs right through the round number at it's 50% retracement mark. THat is my battle line, that is really where I want to cut on on a trade AFTER watching a reaction around that area(if price gets there of course). Well so why place my stop below the bar. Well I just dont feel comfortable sticking it somewhere arbitrarily around that round number or lower and letting it run. My goal is most always to eliminate risk where possible. Taking a 1/4 , 1/2 % loss is a LOT easier to make up for me then a full bar loss.

Now like everything else in trading every situation will occur. Where I say ok it either hits here, or hits my stop. Or where I take that quarter percent loss and then it turns around. It is a balancing act for the individual trader. That is why we will have this conversation in the future with many many other traders b/c of how dynamic trading is without a do A, then B, then C. It is what drives people nuts for years b/c it isn't like opening a textbook.

Now is it wrong to have a set and forget? Of course not, anyone who says this I would laugh in their face b/c trading is an individual thing. But from trading discretionary for a long time now, I trust myself to do the right thing MORE times then not that will bring me into profit. As my account has grown, I have grown, I have become more picky, more conservative on all aspects of my trading(entries, exits, etc). Why? It is where I am most comfortable with less fluctuation in my equity and a smoother curve. I can make money a bunch of different styles, and many can here, but at the end of the day you either can trade it mentally or you can't.

Just my thoughts on this subject and as I said above though take 50 traders, you will get 50 different answers no doubt, and I respect each one of them as long as they are making money consistently

Best
Mike

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(Joel, this is not intended to pick on you or your post....
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  #42869  
Old Sep 2, 2009 1:20pm
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Hey Mike...hope you will see this post.

I had been monitoring a breakout pattern on daily. When it broke, the only PA it produced was a pin on the 15min chart.

Basically it is not trade-able for me. Logically thinking...it is not so smart to enter a breakout of daily bars, based on a 15min pin bar. A 15min bar has no value of data next to the daily bars. Based on this, I have decided that the maximum I'll allow my self to go down in time frames in order to spot a PA confirmation bar will be 2 time frames difference.
For example - If I have my...
Hey Ben

Generally speaking(as their are always exceptions of course), with breakouts I will go down one timeframe for my entries.

Weekly - daily trigger
Daily - 4hr
4hr - 1hr
1hr- 15min

Of course Sometimes I will go down another for each if I see very very clear PA and am very very confident in what I am trading(those are the exceptions). Again just how I have found this stuff to work for me

Best
MIke
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  #42870  
Old Sep 2, 2009 1:23pm
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When I have OB, IB, PB DBLHC etc I should enter them on 50% ret right ?
Hey Atton,

Entering on the 50% retrace is considered a more aggressive style, which I usually do not recommend for those very new to the material. I would not recommend doing at all for IB as that doesn't make much sense b/c an inside bar indicates consolidation so we want to see a breakout.

The good for entering on a retrace? You get a bigger position size(I see you are new to this so I want to make sure you understand what position size means, if not speak up here please).

The bad of entering on a retrace? The bar is not yet confirmed. If we are looking to play a BUOB(which is buying), and we buy at the 50% retrace, we do not yet know if that BUOB is going to be confirmed. The confirmation that it is a valid bar comes when price breaks the HIGH of the BUOB.

So which is right? There is no right there is only testing to find what works for us. I personally never trade retraces and only trade a break of the bar. Many others here do retraces, both, etc.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #42871  
Old Sep 2, 2009 1:25pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
I have closed this one with +7R profit, after one of the bars closed above the BAT on the 4H chart.

Mike, if you don't mind, I have another question

You can see on my second chart, that the 4H bar closed above the BAT, but then the next bar shot down again.
Now I am trying to learn from it...
If I had been placing my stop just above the high off the breaking bar....I would still be in this trade.

Do you exit your trades right away when a bar closes above the BAT? or you wait for a break of the high of the breaking bar? What do you...
Hey Ben

Almost always on the close above. Sometimes I might place my stop at a point say above that bar, or above a round number if it is close by and let it go a bit more. A case like this I would use the close. Price is now coming into support where it is right now, and you are locking in a ton of profit, worth to just take your profit sometimes and go back to waiting in the bushes.

Awesome trade!

Mike
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  #42874  
Old Sep 2, 2009 1:47pm
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What happened here. Did I miss something important ? We have ret to 50% fibo and the price touchs the both Emas

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/864/pinbar.jpg
Hey Atton

Here is what happened with this one and why trading the hourlies are so difficult. Please stick to the daily/weekly as recommend by James and the rest of us, it is to help you I promise I know the urge is to trade but it is best to absorb information at your stage and watching the daily weekly till you can do them.

Here is why this was a problem trade marked off by the blue box which is trading right into a very strong PPZ. We have to watch these areas and they are more important then anything with this material. Also price only broke the low by 6 pips on my feed. I tend to use a buffer of ten pips or higher to prevent this kind of "false" break.

Hope that helps!
Mike
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  #42876  
Old Sep 2, 2009 2:03pm
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mbqb11 So u mean we shouldnt take trades near strong PPZ ( pivot point zones ? ) ?
Hey Atton,

Generally speaking we want to take trades off these PPZ, away from them. Now we have minor and major zones, but they are crucial to both entries and trade mgmt. Check out this post that contains James16 phenomenal posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #42878  
Old Sep 2, 2009 2:13pm
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Hey Nasir

You do have patience, but it is something we all continuously practice and work on getting better at. All traders no matter what level have to work on it. But guess what you learned a cheap lesson that you can learn HUGE amounts from. I have seen many before in your shoes, and they have come out far better then they were before. B/C it is a lesson we all must learn. Don't take away from your progress, simply use this to build on in the proper way forward now. Slow and steady.

Head high sir!

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hello Mike you were right.

But its not a PM cause i don't wan't anyone to feel like i am feeling right now.

It's all gone. All profits of 1 month in 2 Days....
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  #42880  
Old Sep 2, 2009 2:22pm
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Hey Mike

Thanks for the responce. From what I ve read I made a conclusion that the PB would be successful (well no one knows but..) if it was on that PPZ, not near above it?
Hey Atton

Here is your same GBP/USD chart. Notice the BUOB I marked with an arrow is at a swing low, and OFF the PPZ trading away from it. The blue above it is the first trouble area to watch. Notice how in this case we have room to trade away from it.

Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
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  #42883  
Old Sep 2, 2009 2:39pm
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Hi Mike,

Yes, I understand what you mean now.Thanks ! . About the BUOB we would have taken that trade because it was on PPZ and the bar was swing low ?
yep
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  #42892  
Old Sep 2, 2009 5:29pm
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Originally Posted by Grousman View Post
Hi all - I am short on this pair (despite a horror spread from my broker) because;

2 decent PB's
At resistance
On daily at fib 50 retrace of last move down.

It has stalled its steep rise over the last couple of hours (2nd 4H PB just closed) and I hope to see it head south.

Any comments, as always, greatly apprecaited
Hey Grousman

Firstly on the bars themselves. It looks like technically speaking that first bar isn't a pin, that the close is above the prior bars high(remb open and close must be within prior bar). Then also that next bar broke the high of that "pin" which would technically invalidate it. Then that next bar is a very very small pin with the nose not really protruding. My advice is to pass on these all day long. Wait for the much nicer clear ones. They are much easier to manage and trade. Also by entering on the close(I am assuming you entered on the close of that second one), again it is more agressive and a pin is not technically valid until price breaks the low of it. Overall my rating if I had to place it would be a D, and to wait out for the better ones. The waiting game is tough, but it is what pays us at the end of the day if you ask me.

Just some thoughts hope it helps
Mike
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  #42911  
Old Sep 2, 2009 11:01pm
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Originally Posted by evve View Post
Hello everyone !

I am new here and I see lots of quality trades but I don't understand the system and everything you discuss.
What is your advice: where should I start learning ? Is there any materials available?
Or should I start reading from the first page ?
I appreciate any advice and comment and I hope one day I will not be a looser trader anymore !!

Thanks !

Evve
Hey Evve

Welcome to the thread. I know it seems like a monster task, but the best thing you can do is start at page one and work your way VERY slowly through the thread. By the time you get two hundred or so pages deep you will have a much better understanding of what we are trying to do here. There are some posts on post one that sum up different parts, but it is just supplemental to everything for sure.

Most of all enjoy it is fun too

Mike
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  #42915  
Old Sep 3, 2009 1:05am
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Originally Posted by Ebont74 View Post
First i must say i have been very pleased and enlightened by what i have read in the past few days since discovering this thread. To all those that contribute, thanks for all the great information.

I have been following along in the shadows learning as much as I can. I have a chart here that I am looking for some advice on.

I looks as though the price action has bounced off of the resistance in the 1.1100 area. There is also a small PB.

Excuse the trade that is on the chart now. It is from two bars earlier when a large PB showed up that did...

Hey Ebont welcome to our little home here, glad you are enjoying things so far

I would say there is nothing to get excited about with that bar. If you zoom out you can see how small an insignificant it looks. As joel pointed out above these bars show more of indecision they any directional means. If you look we can see right under this is the 1.1000 round number, which is a major PPZ right now. What that means is essentially trying to short here is trading right into a very big problem area. This puts me in wait mode and makes me cautious. For us intraday traders(which I am glad you are starting on the higher timeframes as James lays out, most people skip this and it bites them), I will be watching this area for some clues to which way the action might go. Overall nothing to do on the daily but wait and watch.

Hope that helps and welcome again

Mike
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  #42919  
Old Sep 3, 2009 1:30am
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Originally Posted by atclarkson View Post
First Post.... Hey y'all

I'm currently at page 101 of this thread, and just wanted to introduce myself.
It took me three days... at this rate I'll finish it in 3 months lol...
Hey Clarkson,

I commend you for just diving in and reading that far. It often answers many of the initial questions, but I aslo suspect you come with some background that probably helps that out too

I hate recommending brokers, b/c it is one of those lose-lose situatons. Many good brokers out there, and they usually have the good and the bad with them. This is why many traders i know including myself have more then one depending on the situation and circumstance. One of my brokers is Oanda, whom I recommend to those starting out simply b/c of their position size granularity flexibility(can trade from 1 unit on which is way less then even a penny a pip), and their small deposit(if any?) minimums. So this is good for those who want to throw a few hundred in an account and trade it with correct MM. They are still a great broker for much larger sizes too, but I don't want to go past that and start a broker debate as it can rustle feathers left and right(the damned if you do/don't scenario).

Hope that gives you a little help but you are correct in beginning with a demo account, you will learn much along the way about all things forex.

Glad to see a few new faces today/tonight

Mike
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  #42988  
Old Sep 3, 2009 11:21am
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Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
Hi SC, thanks for your comments.

Below is the chart I based my trade on.
The arrow point to the pinbar.
The red line is the ppz area 1.11 where the price rejected and turn back down to form the pinbar, indicating strong resistance.
The blue line is my first TP.
My short order, 10 pips from the low of the pb, got triggered on the next bar. It only went 10 pips in my favour than price reverse back up.

From your post, I realized that MACD is up and this is in fact a sideway market which should be avoided for newbee like me.

I understand that losing...
Hey E

This is what I saw wrong with this pin and wrote about in the PF in someones journal

QUOTE=mbqb11;36260]Hey Doc

THe problem with this pin is that it is in traffic and sideways market. We want these bars at swing high and low points. When we don't we are immediately trading into more trouble areas(I marked the PPZ it was trading into and reversed at). I also marked in smaller blue boxes the swing high and low points we want to look for these trades. When taking the ones in traffic we have to be extremely nimble or this tends to happen(see also the recent aud/usd trade that initally bounced, although has since dropped out).

Hope that helps
Mike[/quote]
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  #42989  
Old Sep 3, 2009 11:25am
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Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
Hi guys,

I just went back to read first few pages of James post.

I notice that james said to use fib ret from the last swing point as confluence.

So let say that we have a bearish pinbar, we will drag the fib ret from the top of the last swing to low of the last swing.

If we have bullish pinbar, the fib ret is from the low of the last swing to top of the last swing.

I realized that by doing that, we are trading with the trend.

But what if the pinbar is form as highest high or the
lowest low of the chart?
How do we use the fib ret in...
Hey E,

FIB retracement is only a tool in our toolbox of tools we can use. It doesn't have to be used.

We have EMAs, Round numbers, PPZ, Fibs to name a few.

Best
Mike
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  #42990  
Old Sep 3, 2009 11:30am
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Originally Posted by atton View Post
Good day to all of you

Hm, I ve failed on my first demo trade using PA.

We have ( I think )confluense on Fib ret, price touches the Ema and also the price is on S1 based on 4 hour candle.That is my opinion. Feel free to to criticize .

Good Luck

Edit: The only reason for me I shouldn't take this trade was that MACD crossed down
Hey Atton

Firstly I really hope you will take James' and the rest of our advices. If you are new to this(and this goes to all the recent new people to this thread). FOLLOW post one. It is not to frustrate or impede the learning curve it is to help speed it up. You should stick to the daily/weekly ONLY. Until you can do that profitably do not look at the 4hr, and certainly do not look at the 1hr. At your point in the learning curve it is too much to fast. Trust me, we say this for a reason.

With that said, the problems with this trade are the size of the bar, and the immediate trouble area above the high. This is not enough size bar to trump that, and one would have wanted to use a bigger buffer. THis one broke by 6 pips, 10 pips is almost my standard minimum for the 1hr and up.

Hope you understand I am not talking down, just trying to help guide

Mike
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  #42991  
Old Sep 3, 2009 11:34am
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Originally Posted by Jim4x View Post
Hi all
I haven't seen much comment on yesterdays pin, but to me it had a lot going for it.
It's in a ppz, it's in the direction of the trend since Jan, it's at a swing low and there's divergence.
I do have to say it's rather sluggish at the moment though.
Are many of you playing this one?

I would appreciate comments and an idea of what targets you would shoot for.
I'm inclined just to trail the stop (although by how much I'm still juggling with).
Thanks
Jim
Hey Jim

For me this is about as easy as it gets to pass on a trade. Look how small that bar is. Bars like this are playable but one has to put them on a very tight leash. Think about it like this. What is going to have more sustaining power a Punch in the face from a 5 year old, or a punch in the face from a 30 year old. That small pin has got the punching power(in the long run) of a 5 year old, vs a very large nose pin that has the power of a 30 year old. This goes back to the poodle vs pitbull pinbars. Wait for the pitbulls, this is a poodle.

With that said the blue lines are the targets I would be worried about using logical area with a bar of this size.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #42993  
Old Sep 3, 2009 11:38am
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Originally Posted by Jim4x View Post
I have a major question in my head about correlation..... it's been bugging me for a while now, so I thought I'd ask the wise and helpful members of this thread for their take!

basically, there are a number of pairs that all go up and down together, so what are the implications of that?
Just look at the attached screenshot and you'll see what I mean. I could have included GBPUSD, AUDUSD plus EURUSD at a squeeze..... they all basically run the same direction as each other.
So really a buy on GBPUSD is pretty much the same as a buy on AUDJPY........
Hey Jim

A few thoughts here what I tell people. Firstly I trade the chart. I wait for the A+ setups. Does correlation every come into mind. Sure. Mostly as follows.

Daily has a pin on the aud/jpy, gbp/jpy, eur/jpy etc. The running them is the correlation of the xxx/jpy. SO what to do? Me I usually take the BEST looking one and forget the rest. Pips mean nothing to me. It is all about %. If I take a pin on the gbp/jpy which has a bigger daily range, it just means my position size will decrease my risk does not change.

Now obviously xxx/jpy pairs vs each other are more correlated then aud/jpy and a gbp/usd. Some days they run the same, but the long run the correlated pairs have themes like xxx/jpy.

At the end of the day I trade the chart and rest is not as meaningful. I do always hold my breath when I see every xxx/jpy pinning on the 4hr, and someone takes all of them.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #42994  
Old Sep 3, 2009 11:40am
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Originally Posted by Grousman View Post
Decent PB just closed on the 4H, rejected a major level but headed into a little chop and against thmid term trend. Monitoring.

Any comments fire away.
Hey G,

This pin is in heavy traffic(look how choppy price action has been). This immediatly draws my eye to the first trouble area(marked on my chart). Iw ould never ever ever ever take a full bar loss on a bar like this in traffic. I know james would not either. This is crucial IMO.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #43033  
Old Sep 3, 2009 8:18pm
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Originally Posted by evve View Post
Hi MIKE,

Thank you for you answer.I will start reading from the first page !
Also I plan on listening to James's advice and trade on demo only daily and weekly charts.

In the mean time I paid for his website and I am a member now.
My question is :

is there any post where I can see the trades you are taking?
I mean entry , stop loss take profit and everything?
That would help me understand what you are doing.
In the chat room you take live trades?
Seeing charts and trades helps me a lot in the learning process.
Also I apologies if this is not...
Hey Evve

I will PM you in a sec

Mike
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  #43035  
Old Sep 3, 2009 8:25pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
...Wow... And I thought your posts were typed fast. You the man!
hahahah
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  #43036  
Old Sep 3, 2009 8:27pm
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Originally Posted by evve View Post
So guys on the chart above eur aud 4 h what is the best thing to do ?
Just ignore the trade?
As far as I understand it's not a good trade because a long position will hit a " congested " area?

Thanks !

Evve
Yes essentially we are trading into trouble and our trigger bar is nothing to write home about. These iffy blah bars are just not worth our time. SP said something important. Many bars give pips, bad ones, great ones, so-so ones. But we can't be concerned about that. We are concerned with familiarizing ourselves with high probability situations and we do this by being very very picky. Especially in the beginning. I know sometimes I sound like a downer being very picky, but it is the one thing I try to stress more then anything. It will put most people in a position where most can't even see.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #43038  
Old Sep 3, 2009 8:36pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
You answered three posters a couple of nights ago concisely, with proper grammer and presentation. (and a chart! lol) ...all within a few minutes.

You've picked up a secretary haven't you?
spell check and coffee my friend

but a hot secretary sounds fine too LOL
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  #43079  
Old Sep 4, 2009 2:01am
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Hey Fxairy

Welcome to the thread glad you are enjoying it

My PM to evve was in regards to PF posts, so it wouldn't really be relevant here. But keep on reading through this thread and there is plenty of great information to keep you very very busy

First post has some great useful summary style links as well, but nothing beats going through post by post. Eventually you know whos posts to read and whose you can more or less "skim".

Best
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by fxairy View Post
Quote:...
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  #43139  
Old Sep 4, 2009 3:24pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Hey guys, just wondering in GOld and Silver, when we say we set our entry 10 pips above the high for entry - How much is it for Gold and Silver should I set it away from high?
Well for me it depends on the spread. Generally 40-50 pips so I like to set it about 50 pips above the high not counting the spread.
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  #43223  
Old Sep 7, 2009 7:29am
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Originally Posted by albchr View Post
I've had that sig "almost" from the start. Reflects what I've learned here thanks to James and the good Lord for putting him here....

Today is my 1 year anniversary since I first heard of Forex. I'm working on the first page of a journal I'm going to start to keep track of myself from here.
I seriously can't believe when some of you say I have been in forex for a year. Just amazes me how far ahead you guys are from my first year in

Congrats my friend

Mike
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  #43272  
Old Sep 7, 2009 9:10pm
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Hi,

can someone take a look at this and see if this is the right way to calculate drawdown? (mike?)

I am not the best with excel and want to input a function that will automatically calculate the max DD when given a column with the adjusted acct bal. over a one month period. Is anyone good with excel that can help me?

thank you and any help would be appreciated
Yes that would be correct max drawdown from peak to valley. Obviously according to your chart this equity curve never spent any time under the money line, so the drawdowns are on profits not initial investment.

Best
Mike
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  #43277  
Old Sep 7, 2009 10:17pm
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Originally Posted by tormo View Post
@ joeslcf

thank you that helps a lot.

@Mike

do you consider the drawdowns on your profits separately from your initial investment or just combine the whole thing?
Hey T

It is just book keeping. In the end the only stats that matter are the ones that matter to you unless of course you have investors then they might look at a variety of stats. I just take a check once and awhile for max drawdown stats. Or things like max consecutive losses etc. I have not spent any time under the money this year so that stat doesn't exist.

Best
Mike
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  #43279  
Old Sep 8, 2009 12:14am
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Originally Posted by esbatu View Post
Jarroo, thanks for your explanation.

I've got some questions about MACD.
Do we only use it to spot divergence?
Do we pay attention whether it's sloping upward/ downward, the location above/below 0 line or whether its above/below its signal line?
Thanks
Hey Esbatu

Most of us use it the way J16 uses it which is only for divergence. I personally only use it for divergence also. I am sure others have integrated Price action with it in various ways but from using it as a divergence tool for so long it is the only way I personally recommend.

Take care
Mike
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  #43314  
Old Sep 8, 2009 10:44am
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Hi rikrok, you are not alone. Same thing is happening to me. I was demoing the pinbar on dailies and weekly for last two months with quite impressive results (for me anyway :P). Almost any pinbar that I took gave me profits, be that a grade B/ C / D pinbar.

So I decided to go live this month (I know, I should demo for at least 3 months), and guess what. From four pinbar trades that I took, only one gave me profits. In fact, I was just closing my third loss trades for this month as I am writing this. I am telling you, this is really a horrible feeling....
Yes we ALL experience losses. This is why we must follow j16 advice when learning this. It happens to most people with this material. They have one good month and off to the races. I am not judging any of you, but the reason we say certain things about demoing for 3months, not going live, to be picky etc, is simply b/c we know what happens. We get over confident start firing off bullets on any old pinbar, and next thing we know we gave back all our profits + some, and then we are off trying to trade to make it all back and we just keep digging the hole. It has nothing to do with volatility or anything. September is not a holiday month, it is a back to work month. August is technically the "summer" month and it was a great PA month for many. The markets are just the markets. I am very glad to hear some of you here posting that you know it is time to stick to 3 months demo. Take things SLOWWWW. The markets are not going anywhere, and this is a very very very long marathon if you want to be around here in 20+ years from now. StoragePro is very right about what he said.

So just take things slow guys, it is all about practice, experience, and time

Best
Mike
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  #43315  
Old Sep 8, 2009 10:49am
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Hey guys,

Wanted to get your thoughts on E/J weekly. PB bounce near 61 Fib at PPZ round # (131.006). It also has a trendline triangle shaping up. I was thinking a break through the top of the PB and through the trendline might take it long...maybe to the 365 MA on the daily. A buy stop around the 38 Fib (134.300) and sell 1/3 lots at PPZs along the way to 365. BE at first PPZ with step trailing stops.

I'm new at it (demo only) and realize the PB is not at an ideal place for an A trade. I am more trying to get a feel for PA with reaction to...
Hey Hell cat

Since you are new to this my advice is to be as absolutely as picky as possible. You will here those of us that have been around say it over and over again. C and D setups don't pay the bills trust me .

If you zoom your chart out you can see how small and insignificant that pinbar really looks. Now where would we guess the first trouble area to be? Well as you can see the 135 round number is right above us so this is where we would have to first look.

One thing that usually gets new PA traders is they see C and D setups work, and then take the next C and D setup. They are much tougher to manage then a B+/A+ setup. Remember any type of bar can give pips, but we should concern ourselves with the best setups, as the probability to give pips is the highest and easiest to mange/see.

Hope this helps!

Mike
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  #43327  
Old Sep 8, 2009 2:44pm
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Originally Posted by fxairy View Post
Hi 2 all
Plz, look at my picture, and tell me, what do u think

Thank's
Hey Fxairy

Basically what we have right now is an Inside bar / TBH stalling right above 1.6500 round number. I marked where if price breaks lower it is likely to end up going and having trouble. So personally I think one would trade a break of the round number rather then where your sell is. You are basically selling much lower then the pattern suggests.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #43333  
Old Sep 8, 2009 3:43pm
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Originally Posted by fxairy View Post
Sir mbqb11 and supermeChaos
I think, that I have one problem, If you can, plz help me. When I draw my PPZ line, the border for trade is very small, I read a lot about how to draw lines, but I can not understand the truth. Look at the picture ... comments are not needed
What do you advise? how to draw PPZ?
Also I often look webinars for guests on the james16 site......

Thanks
Hey Fx

Yes your PPZ are drawn correct. Sometimes you have more room then others. Gbp/usd has more room to the upside then to the downside. How we manage our trades is up to the individual. Those first areas though we must understand that price can and will reverse there. For me if I have a very large PA bar, at a prime spot, I often use these first trouble zones to help me manage my trade. I don't necessarily automatically move my stops at that point or take profit. Now for intraday trading(4hr and under), often these first trouble areas need to be more important b/c trades are on an intraday level for me. The more space a trade creates often the easier to run and longer we can hold b/c there is less to get in the way.

Let me know if that helps your question
Mike
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  #43334  
Old Sep 8, 2009 3:52pm
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Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Heads up on Gold Daily pin:

This is the 3rd time price has gone above $1000. I was watching for PA to go long but the price has failed to hold above this level and it looks like the Daily will produce a good Pin.

If this breaks down there is that area around $990 that could be a problem.

Attachment 306063
I am short up higher near 1000 but if it turns to a daily pin I am there with ya LJR
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  #43336  
Old Sep 8, 2009 4:07pm
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Originally Posted by fxairy View Post
Sir Mike....
If speaking honestly, I do not quite understand ..
Maybe it's the language barrier
Can you explain on the picture. Trader understand any trader looking at the chart with a brief commentary
Sure bud,

Here is a gbp/chf. Notice the pinbar with the arrow under it. Now the first small blue box is our first potential trouble area. This is what I call a minor trouble area. The bigger blue box is a more major trouble area of resistance. Now in all likelihood you get to that second box, because notice that the first blue small minor area, is a very small trouble zone. If the PA is very good PA, out in space like that off a nice area, then I usually don't let that first area bother me too much. At that point I might trail my stop up say under the previous bars low. This helps elimanate most of the risk, but allow you to remain in the trade to the more major area. When getting to that major area(big blue box), I will tend to outright take profit, or tighten my stop WAY up.

Now every chart, scenario, situation is differnet. Some trades have more room to run. Some less, etc. We do our best to understand where these trouble areas are, and then based on our personal methods, react accordingly. Hope that helps clear it up

Mike
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  #43345  
Old Sep 8, 2009 4:58pm
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Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
so is there a position calculator to do gold properly? I keep getting some ridiculous calculations.
I use the one that oanda has Pip/Profit Calculator under tools

Mike
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  #43356  
Old Sep 8, 2009 8:05pm
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Originally Posted by Majestic12 View Post
hmm, tried asking this question but for some reason my post did not show up. I would like to know what time daily candles normally close on most charts so i can trade the pins at these times when most traders are seeing the same thing i am. Would be grateful if someone could enlighten me as i am finding conflicting opinions after a google search. Thanks.
Hey Majestic

I use a 5pm est close, b/c I prefer one close to the NY close time. Otherrs use ranging from 5-8pm. Really it won't make a world of difference in the end, from my experience so pick a charting you feel comfortable with.

Take care
Mike
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  #43363  
Old Sep 8, 2009 11:20pm
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Originally Posted by judith View Post
I spotted these 2 setups tonight, a daily PB (CAD) and a 4hr BEOB (AUD),they seem fine, but I feel there's something missing there, not sure if I should get in, what do guys think?
Hey Judith

I took this aud/jpy trade before, but will not take a big loss on it should it decide to come back to much

Also first trouble on usd/cad since it is in some decent traffic, marked up in blue boxes.

Best
Mike

PS AARON GO TO BED MAN!
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  #43369  
Old Sep 9, 2009 12:30am
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Originally Posted by ezz View Post
guys what do u think about this PB?

ps: the fibs are drawn from the monthly chart
Hey Ezz

This one is in a lot of traffic , I made a post here on it
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=43315


Best
Mike
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  #43374  
Old Sep 9, 2009 2:17am
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Hey Mike,

Just wondering, would you have taken the trade that you showed in the picture as from what I understand, it seems like it is the "falling knife" thing that you guys talked about and the Pin bar looks small in comparison to the rest of the bars. Just wondering if we should avoid these trades after a steep steep fall.

Of course I have not look at the rest of the confluence yet Just the pattern

Hey T

If I do take a bar like that I just commit myself to not taking a full loss. I do this by watching the round number where the pin closes over. So if it retraces on me past the round number and I don't see buyers coming in I cut out on it. This is a bit more advanced but really still simple in terms of cutting your losses. Every trader I know cuts their losses in some form this is just part of the tool I use.

Best
Mike
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  #43375  
Old Sep 9, 2009 2:19am
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Hi guys,

got a question I have been thinking about for the past 2 days and could not seem to get an answer....
hardest question out there. And I know I could never personally sum it up cause it is situational. But to give an idea check out this post for my methods

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=36494
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  #43399  
Old Sep 9, 2009 1:50pm
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Originally Posted by faizal82 View Post
hi guys

im in on this setup.

2 day pin at high.

double top with divergence

fair amount of space as well.
Hey Faizal,

I wish both the bars were much bigger personal, but a side note I see you have your take profit deeper under those bar highs and the lows(see my chart). Make sure that you watch those highs. Price can bounce right of bar highs and lows very easily. Good time to watch and make sure to reduce risk or not take a full bar loss at least.

Best
Mike
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  #43400  
Old Sep 9, 2009 1:57pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
What are we looking for price to do? Move up consolidate and continue moving up ? Move up and immediately come back down? If we take a 1H trade or a 4H trade, do we do anything before the next bar closes?

Sorry for such stupid questions but I was watching Where did price go videos from James and was just wondering that if we know the first trouble area is 30 pips away, what do we do? move stop to BE immediately after price has move to that area? or?

Thanks
Hey Trader

This is sort of what I was trying to get at in my last post. It is entirely situational for me pesonally. If I am playing say a 1hr pin, and the first trouble area is 30 pips away. I might just flat out take profit there. Soemtimes I just move my stop up(not neccesarily to b/e) to some point. This might be under a previous bar low. Hide it under a round number. Or sometimes to b/e. Many traders will always move their stops to b/e at the first trouble area. I like to treat each situation different.

Example today was I was short xau/usd (gold ) a bit under 1000 mark. As it retraced on me I was in a drawdown. This was after already being in profit. What I did was wait for the next "high" to be put in. This was the pinbar on the 1hr(even though my entry was much lower). I then placed my stop above this high. It came close to getting taken out but again s/r, and proper stop placement kept me in(there was a daily pin at this point). My point is I haven't done this on a trade in a long time, but trades are very situational that I did this(check my general trading thread for my trading plan to do this).

So basically every situation is different to me. Sure I have strings of trades where I am flat out taking profit at the first area on my intraday trades. But if I really like a trade, I tend to simply use these areas and watch them for stop trailing placement. Then I have my breakout style trades which I tend to trail always.

I know it is confusing, but this is where the bulk of time and experience comes into play so much.

Hope that helps
Mike
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Old Sep 9, 2009 11:56pm
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Originally Posted by Monroe View Post
Hey guys, I've been reading this thread and I am new to Forex, and Forex Factory. After some research on the board and many hours of reading, I have decided to study the James16 Price Action system. I have some questions if you guys don't mind. I have read and re-read the first 50 pages many times, and I feel I understand the price action system basics... All the price action signals, etc. Looking at charts in the past and and looking at what's going on currently, all I can say is it's phenominal!!

Well, I am a complete newbie, and I know James16...
Hey Monroe

Welcome and I think you will be quite pleased with what we do around here. Simple and effective, just takes time and practice.

Yes you are missing what is called position sizing. Basically pips don't mean anything it is all about position size. So you can have a 50 pip stop or a 500 pip stop and both equal to the same percentage of your account size.

For more information check this out
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...osition+sizing

(MM = posts 18-33). Go through it a few times and it will make sense.

Again welcome and ask questions when you have

Mike
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  #43421  
Old Sep 10, 2009 1:07am
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Originally Posted by Monroe View Post

I know that ma's are not important for me right now, but do you guys typically use sma's/ema's for extra support/resistance levels? This I am unsure of, but from what I understand, it seems you guys are using different ma's settings depending on the TF. Is there one common one, like the 365ema?
Glad you are learning so much, this is what it is all about.

Typically the main EMAs used in this thread are the 365 and 150 ema. With quite a few using 200ema, and 50 ema. There are variations of this you will find as you go through the thread, but no need to get bogged down on all that yet.

-Mike
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  #43430  
Old Sep 10, 2009 3:10am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
EU has reached 61.8% level of the big move down there might be a retracement before it breaks it. (if it breaks it)
I do very similar things to this Nasir. I plan out scenarios in my head so when things line up I feel more confident in my trades.
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  #43458  
Old Sep 10, 2009 2:10pm
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Originally Posted by faces View Post

Or another example: If you see a few bars bouncing of a level one month ago, but the price passed through this level many times after that without reacting to it, do you still consider it?
Hey Faces

The general answer would be yes we still do. Because that could be a bunch of lows that when price now comes back to that area next time will act as resistance. Price has a good memory on these charts. Of course this would be a general answer, each situation has to be evaluated independently.

Take care
mIke
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  #43459  
Old Sep 10, 2009 2:11pm
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Originally Posted by tlindle View Post
question for James/Mike/SP/Jaroo/RaczekFX/other experienced traders

do you guys keep a journal of completed trades? do you find it helpful or unnecessary? I try to always take a screenshot and mark my entry/exit points, although I'm not sure how useful this will be in the future
Hey Tlindle

I keep a very basic spreadsheet. Stop size/ take profit/ pair / date/ bar trigger. I used to keep a very detailed one and it helped me get to where I am now. It kept me accountable and helped when I wanted to go back on trades. I am afraid as my trading got better I reverted to my lazy self as I was in school :P

So I highly recommend it. If anything the tediousness of it will make you want to be more picky so you don't have to do the paperwork

Mike
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  #43460  
Old Sep 10, 2009 2:13pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Just FYI.... are most of u aware of this??

i dug up in my subscribed thread's...
Tesla's trendline alerter indicator.
it's in post#1 of his thread (check it out).

variations on post #49 (charlies' alerter indicator version for rectangles, fib retracements & fib expansions as well as trendlines). Bollinger band version here,...
Yah cool little thing he made there. I only use horizontal alerts now. All those will get the job done as well

Best
Mike
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  #43475  
Old Sep 10, 2009 4:10pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Tlindle - see what I mean?

Some of the people around here have more depth and experience and it shows with their lazy-ass methods. I hope to be a lazy-ass someday. I really do.

(I hope Mike does not get mad at me... probably to lazy to... )
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  #43477  
Old Sep 10, 2009 4:13pm
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Hey Triger my answers below

Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
hey guys it have been a while since my last post here....
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  #43478  
Old Sep 10, 2009 4:14pm
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Hey Triger my answers below(this damn quote thing is annoying now

Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
I found here that are 2 guys Gaston and Darkstar that are talking about this I have just finished to read all the post made by Gaston and currently reading Darkstar posts and I'm finding myself so lost about the valuable information provided by them,I think I need a little more time to digest all that information.
Who is Darkstar (sorry those that know me will laugh too)

Quote:
so here are my question:

1. Just wanted to know if there was a place that listed all the major Market Makers and
Internbanks positions that heavily influence FX.
Nope, you can hit up the rumor mill on places like IFR
Quote:
2. and how do you use the information about order flow in your favor

do you guys think that it's better to stick only to the information from this thread,
Stick to the basics, you can still incorporate Orderflow. Orderflow is every where. Where does more OF build up? Round numbers. Support resistance etc. It can all be seen on the chart
Quote:
do you think that I'm overcomplicate all this stuff

It is so damm hard this road guys, I have so many upside and downside in my current learning stage and I know that will be more because I whant to study more.
It is a hard easy road. The hardest road I ever traveled but when I look back on it, it is really about simplicity and everything in between your ears.

Hope that helps a bit
Mike
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  #43583  
Old Sep 11, 2009 3:36pm
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Originally Posted by Shermenator View Post
Simply to create liquidity ....if huge yard orders want to come into the market they will push price down to a large area of sell stop so they can get mostly filled at very closes price like this they dont get huge slippage. And these sell stops are placed at key lows or below support ext...its not that they are trying to stop you out its just that is the mechanics of the market for large players. Its the only way they can play .


In a market as liquid as FX, it is never liquid enough, not even close
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  #43596  
Old Sep 11, 2009 6:56pm
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Did any one here take Gold short on the Daily pin bar on Tuesday 9/8/2009?

I was tempted to short Gold, but didn't want to put down that much real money in Oanda, yet.

If you did take this trade, how did it end for you?

Were you able to get your Stop to BE? Did you take partial profit/loss? Full bar loss?

If I was to take this, I think I would have taken a full bar loss. The set-up looked too good to move stops up (great looking pin bar at a great location), my first TP would have been 970 or so.

Hey TJ

I took this trade and took full profit at the low of right around the 990 area. There was some pretty strong resistance and lots more underneath that. At worst we had a counter daily pin right off that area, so I would say at the least your stop should have gone around there instead of taking a full bar loss.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #43600  
Old Sep 11, 2009 7:29pm
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Mike, that helps tremendously, thank you!

My step brother is 4 years older than me, so that makes him 22 (LOL, just kidding) that makes him 35....
Hey TJ

Sounds like a nice life retiring at 35, I will take 40 :P

Glad it helped

Enjoy the weekend time for some drinks

Mike
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  #43601  
Old Sep 11, 2009 7:30pm
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Originally Posted by 4X=0 View Post
woah cool mike. i have never ever ever seen one of your trades.
hehe I save that mostly for PF but I will put up more here if it helps

Mike
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  #43602  
Old Sep 11, 2009 7:30pm
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
Check out my post here regarding this setup. It was definitely avoidable to take a full bar loss on this one, and it was BE for me.

Scott
Well done Scott!
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  #43623  
Old Sep 12, 2009 3:14pm
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Originally Posted by simply123 View Post
Thanks james for opening such a nice thread and hi friends and fellow traders.. for keeping it so much active

friends, i have a few queries, do take time to answer them

1. i have started reading the thread from the beginning and have reached at 160 pages till now,since this thread is so huge and is growing so actively i think its gonna take a long time to reach at the end [ even 10 pages a day would take a year,even if we consider no new posts ].I am not against hardwork and if the only way out is reading the entire thing i would surely do that,...
Hey Simple

Welcome

Yea this thread is huge. But what I would do is the following(if I had to start over). Read the first 100 pages or so(100-200). THen read the first page and all the links on the first page(especially the summary link by jdeuster). Then I would go through and read the posts of the senior traders(of course James, Jarroo, Seekinglight, Raczefx, SP, and the list goes on). But this will condense down much of the reading as you can skim a lot of the of course fluff that comes with any thread on FF. But I would read as much as you can and of course all of james16 posts about 1000 times like I have.

Enjoy too it should be enjoyable

Mike
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  #43624  
Old Sep 12, 2009 3:15pm
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Originally Posted by dengzhi View Post
agreed... fibs are highly subjective and you can draw them anyway you want to make PA bars line up with certain fib numbers to make yourself feel better about a trade..
naked charts are best
I think everything can have its place. But I prefer the simplicity is better approach. Meaning, don't just draw a fib after you see a Pinbar if you are going to curve fit it. Use the most clear obvious swing points. Where everyone can draw a fib. Of course after awhile you can very easily see in a swing to swing where we are. It is pretty obvious when a run is at the 50%.

Mike
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  #43644  
Old Sep 13, 2009 3:44am
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Originally Posted by Darkstar View Post
I'm Darkstar bitches! And don't you forget it! :P

Sup Mike?
ah man the good old days. Good to see you Bill

You guys read his posts and still have not a clue how smart this man is(that is literally the biggest compliment I can pay). Huge smile to my face to see you drop around

Nothing more but a
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  #43712  
Old Sep 14, 2009 1:20pm
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Originally Posted by Mpondondo View Post
I don't really understand BEOB and BUOB, and would like to ask the following question, please see attachment.

Attachment 314049
yep that is correct Mp,

here are a few more examples of outside bars from Jim

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11011

Best
Mike
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  #43715  
Old Sep 14, 2009 1:41pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Hi Guys,

Took this failed pin on the EUR CAD 2 days ago. Any insights on what I missed out to get stopped out in 2 bars?

Pro:

Rejected by 2 EMAs
PPZ
Nice Pin bar
Hey Trader here is a post I made to someone in the PF

[quote=mbqb11;37354]You are quite right! Most people won't come close to admitting what you just did. Everyone thinks, well those rules are for everyone else, I am different :P I have seen traders go for a few years before saying I better do things the right way. Kudos to you.


As for eur/cad. The bar itself is real nice, but the location is very poor for me. We are just trading into a huge block of traffic(the big blue box). Now some people might still take it to the first immediate trouble(small blue line box). I see you shorting on the close of the bar(and also previously on chf/jpy). IMO this is the worst way to trade bars, as the benefit is real small b/c the actual low(break of bar is not far off). So you are not really getting a better position size(where as on a retracement you are at least). My recommendation is to always wait for the break of the bar.

All in all, a nice bar at a poor location(traffic wise). This is an easy pass for me. If it breaks the low, I would keep a real tight leash on it.

Hope that helps, and again I commend your honesty about the psych side. Not being stubborn is a huge plus going forward for you. The ones I have the toughest reaching are the real stubborn ones. h

Mike[/QUOTE
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  #43716  
Old Sep 14, 2009 1:42pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
One day Mike, I'll beat you to the punch. One day...
We should combine your post with mine, it would be a much more complete post
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  #43718  
Old Sep 14, 2009 2:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
I definitely see where Mike and Tia are coming from regarding the EURCAD trade. Trading right back into a box/range/mess. Though the bar itself was very nice looking.

What is strange, to me (and maybe I am just not getting this) is the EURCAD trade still looks better than the GBPUSD trade from last night.

I see a few took the GBPUSD trade, and did just fine. Where I passed on it, and looking back, I would still pass on it.
Nothing wrong with this tJ. I also passed on the gpb/usd. The thing with the gbp/usd as opposed to eur/cad was at least gbp/usd had some more breathing room, but the actual bar was too small for me. IMO the only way to play these are Jarroo style of a clean hard break and not taking a big loss.

One thing for everyone to remember, is it is ALWAYS ok to pass on bars that you are not comfortable with, and one persons comfort zone does not have to be yours

Mike
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  #43720  
Old Sep 14, 2009 2:26pm
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Originally Posted by atton View Post
Hi all

Mike when you say that we shoudnt trade back into PPZ do you mean only the big ones ? Cuz everytime when i open my chart I see only PPZ near the price
Hey Atton

In general yes there is s/r everywhere, which can be both major and minor. For me I trade away from most major PPZs(or at least have enough room to the major ones). Then I use the minor PPZ, to help manage my trades. The more space/ less traffic a trade is in, it means the less minor zones are around(by the nature of what a trade in space is). Thus we can use this to our advantage to hold trades longer then those that are in more traffic(thus trading into more "problem area".

Hope that makes sense
Mike
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  #43732  
Old Sep 14, 2009 3:50pm
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Originally Posted by atton View Post
Hi,

Thanks both for the fast responce. How do I diverse the minor from the major PPZ. I really understand what is the difference but may you give me some examples of major and minor PPZ please. Thanks in advance.
Hey Atton

The way I do it is more generalized. For example below is a chart. The big blue boxes are clear major PPZ zones. These can't be missed, and we can't forget they are zones. Then lets say we are in a trade going long now(forget no PA just trying to explain). Well now what I do is focus my attention to what else is around my entry. These are bar highs, lows, previous minor flips. I marked some in small thin blue box. So although some of them might run into major ones, what my attention does is focus in, onto a more micro perspective of the chart where price is now.

Defining these areas, is literally the key to trading IMO. S/R is everything. The bars are nothing more then triggers. It is really like learning a new language, slowly it becomes easier to read.

Hope that clears it up a bit

Mike
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  #43733  
Old Sep 14, 2009 3:56pm
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Hello Aaron, thanks again for the responce. Just need to clarify a few things.... Jim's chart that you sent me is showing one BEOB at a swing high position but the first BUOB is halfway up the incline..? How would one know the difference?

I've attached another chart here of the current gbp/usd daily... there are two OB's that I've highlighted, the one idicated by a white arrow is bearish... but actually reversed... the other one (yellow arrow) is bullish on the 365 day EMA and long term fib (end2007 to the low earlier this year i think) and this...

Hey Dave

That first BEOB is at a swing low point. We want to see a BUOB there. So if we took arrow two bar the buob and swapped it in that is where we would want a BUOB to be, a swing low.

Your second arrow is now a swing high, and this is where we would want the BEOB to be. So essentially we would want to switch these bars and their locations to become "possibly" more tradable.

As for how to trade them, you can like all PA trade them a few ways. On a break, on the close, on a retrace. I prefer to trade all my bars on a break, with my stop loss on the other side of the bar(remember to position size correctly! )

Now yes you can eventually trade these bars as continuations not reversals, but please I suggest to avoid doing that till you understand and can trade them the way J16 teaches here as reversals. So in his chart, the first BUOB was a continuation, and the second one was a BEOB true reversal at a swing high which is what we want.

Best
Mike
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  #43734  
Old Sep 14, 2009 3:57pm
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One question. Can this be considered 2 consecutive matching lows? He have an established trend but its a little weird because its friday and monday candle. But the difference is only 0.8 pip. Or am i missing something?
Hey fxlan

Yes that is a TBL(two bar low). For now a sign of a "pause" in the trend, when they break they can often signal a continuation(temporary or longer).

Best
Mike
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  #43739  
Old Sep 14, 2009 4:54pm
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Hey Mike, thanks for the info... I'm assuming one jsut has to demo and see how they work until you get a "feel" for it...

I hope you actually get to trade..you seem busy ansering questions all the time!

rgds
Dave
I prob spend the least amount of time actually trading then anything
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  #43743  
Old Sep 14, 2009 5:14pm
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Originally Posted by Mpondondo View Post
I'm read about, but never tried trading, "almost pin bars".... is an "almost BEOB" relavant in any circumstances? (yellow arrow)
This is once again the gbp/usd daily chart...(I really like this pair)....

Attachment 314288
Hey Mp

That is just a BEB. Bearish bar. Usually a sign of continuation, but nothing really worth trading off( in my conservative experience).

Hmmm I should make that my tag line.


Mike
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  #43791  
Old Sep 15, 2009 1:06pm
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Watch this one from the sidelines Tradertt, that is the smart thing to do when you are not sure. You cannot lose on the sideline, and you will grow in your ability to evaluate trades with experience - if you stick to identification of the best trades.

PS - draw the top of the fib retrace from the swing high of 9/9 to the bottom. Notice where the 61.8 lines up.
I think this is a really important point. The usd/jpy will probably get to that first trouble area at 90.75 ish. Is it worth it to trade? Maybe depends on your style. Are there definitely better trade? YES. That is running theme I see. Everyone is afraid to analyze a chart and just watch. Because if they analyze it right and stand aside, it eats them up. When instead they should be proud they understood the charts, and understood they can still get their money in better.

It is always OK to pass guys. There is always and will always be another trade. By getting good at the not so good bars, it just makes trading the A bars that much easier and less stressful.

Be patient like SP said. Best trait you can have

Mike
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  #43792  
Old Sep 15, 2009 1:08pm
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Originally Posted by Revstar View Post
Hi all,

Some interesting moves on Eur crosses, got stopped out on my Eur/Cad (Doh!). have i missed some important news .... ?!?!?!?

take it easy....
Hey Revstar

You will find most of us don't pay attention to the news. James16 "avoids it like the plague". Meaning he doesn't care what news is going on, I agree. It can all be seen on the charts. Were you speaking about the eur/cad daily pin?

Check this post if so.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post3057491

Take care
Mike
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  #43816  
Old Sep 15, 2009 5:01pm
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Of course this is demo money, so I am not that concerned. You might ratchet it down to 1% as well. When you go live, 2% will likely be too much.

hey - anyone answer - losses make me sweat and feel hot. I think I might be mental. How about you all?
Yeah I have to be honest, one of my few pet peeves, is that new traders automatically pick 2% per trade? Where did this rumor get started. 2% and a few losses and all of a sudden you want to throw your monitor out the window. I think traders should be no more then 1% UNTIL they understand there methods, drawdowns etc. Then feel free to fiddle with it.

End rant

Mike
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  #43828  
Old Sep 15, 2009 7:18pm
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Originally Posted by Flem26 View Post
This closes within the hour on my feed . . . right off of what was support . . .
Don't forget though, this is at a swing low. We want to see bearish pins at swing highs. I am not saying this won't retest the lows, but we must be aware of this in the decision making process. I am still one to say avoid these until you can get them down at the j16 placing.

Best
Mike
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  #43835  
Old Sep 15, 2009 10:32pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Hi Mike,

Can that be classified under your breakout trading? Breakout, Pull back pin bar form?
Not for me trader. I am looking for patterns (wedges horizontal breakous etc), clear ones, to trade breakout + pullback.

Best
Mike
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  #43836  
Old Sep 15, 2009 10:33pm
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Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
I think I'm getting a hang of this.

GBPJPY, 4 hour.
[A grade setup?]
Over all downtrend.
Retracement to 50% + PPZ + weekly Pivot
Pinbar was so so, but location looked good
Traffic to downside decently light
Decent amount of "empty space" (the way Mike teaches it)
Tgt 149.55 (PPZ + weekly S1 + that long PB tail in the PPZ to the left)

EURGBP, 1hour. Still in this one.
[I think this is an A+ setup?]
Overall broad trend nicely up
50% ret + 365ma + 200ma
Light traffic to upside
Good amount of "empty space" (the way Mike teaches it)
Nice...
WOW talk about massive pips

Nice cyrus. those things never looked back huh

Mike
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  #43896  
Old Sep 16, 2009 3:57pm
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Originally Posted by atton View Post
Hi,

What are these lightbulbs ? Is that a PA pattern
hehe

People just mean the lightbulbs coming on in their heads that they are beginning to understand things better

Mike
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  #43899  
Old Sep 16, 2009 4:08pm
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Lightbulb

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Mike is the electrician that helps make these lightbulbs glow.
How many j16ers does it take to screw in a lightbulb?
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  #43906  
Old Sep 16, 2009 4:40pm
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Stupid me
Ok but nowadays you can never know what some words mean in the real life.
you are so correct, there is a lingo in itself that must scare people off from this thread
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  #43907  
Old Sep 16, 2009 4:40pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
the answer is 0 jarroo.

in the james16 world the light bulbs never burn out.

hahah phew I didn't even have an answer

I mean yes that was what I was thinking
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  #43924  
Old Sep 16, 2009 5:52pm
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Originally Posted by gannina View Post
@StoragePro - Thanks for the great advice!

@mbq - I just saw your webinar and it was very informative. I learned a lot from that one. Just of curiosity what trading platform are you using? It seems your chart is horizontally compressed. I use metatrader 4 for charting and I couldn't get it to look like that.

Thanks!
Hey Gannina

Thanks

I use mt4 for charting as well, so not sure

Mike
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  #43931  
Old Sep 16, 2009 6:28pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
yep thats it...
yep yep

thanks

Mike
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  #43932  
Old Sep 16, 2009 6:28pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
The cherry video was the first one or two in the guest section, if that makes it easier.

Mikes Cherry Video
ROFL
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  #43957  
Old Sep 16, 2009 11:32pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
I think it is more a case of them having orders at certain numbers already, which then form the PPZ rather than the other way around, but the end effect is the same.

I'm also fascinated with the concept of 'space' - how do you tell how a market will react when there is nothing on the chart for it to react with?

My guess, when you are looking through a 'drop through the floor' type scanrio with no PPZs in sight, the obstructions that might stop the trade are [list][*]a change in sentiment - The kind of fear->optimism shift that stops falls,...
all your stuff is pretty right on Joel as I have told you before. There are various other factors that are very important to the markets we trade but we just have such little to do with it. One of these big factors are options. Options are HUGE with large sums of money on the line. Wherever large sums of money lie, well you know the rest. A large option barrier(or the blowout of one for liquidity) can stop a trend dead in its track if there is enough money behind to protect it compared to the force on the way up. But as with anything there are also people looking to blow out these options. Cat vs mouse resumes. Orderflow is real nice to have knowledge of it, but Joel said it straight, what we see and the way we interpret it(via J16 pa) is far more important. Although I do feel much better off for my knowledge of it and am greatly thankful to DS for sharing his knowledge with me. It certainly does help and is clearly evident in how I trade.

Mike
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  #43960  
Old Sep 16, 2009 11:46pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post

Expiration day and rollover day are time to either hit the 15m chart or go to the pub, depending on how brave you feel.
ROFL
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  #43962  
Old Sep 16, 2009 11:59pm
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Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
What to do you say to they guy that likes the complexity? How do I keep it simple when the gears in my head are constantly turning? I don't know...

I say shut down that brain, b/c it will drive you nuts


Keep it simple baby
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  #43972  
Old Sep 17, 2009 12:17am
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Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
Is there an off switch?

Maybe I should huff some paint and kill some brain cells.
Never huffed any paint here

This is why some of the smartest people fail miserably at trading. It is opposite of how we really need to think often. Doctors, Lawyers whatever think that it is like learning a profession that way. It is completely not from my experience and that is why the joke is the doctors and lawyers get in last and give the liquidity for the big boys to get out of their profession. Those who just boil it down to its simplest level, practice, are open minded etc seem to thrive the best. I don't think you should change who you are, but it is possible to change how you are with trading. Look around the forums for people completely over complicating things they don't understand, and they don't last very long. What we do here as James says, is simple(dirt ). The real problem is what is between our ears, and all the stuff we do to mess up the simplicity of it. Please I am certainly not talking down, just trying to post another way of how I see things. There is a learning curve that can't be avoided that is for sure. But at the end of the day those that I see doing the best know how to keep it simple and see trading for what it is.

Just a mini rant for ya
Mike
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  #44027  
Old Sep 17, 2009 3:24pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Someone with me in this?

Different entry strategy this time.

Ben
benji sometimes I feel like I am reading my own posts LOL

Keep at it

Mike
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  #44028  
Old Sep 17, 2009 3:27pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
So who cares what you know it's all about MAKING MONEY to me the rest is just bullshit.
at the end of the day that is really the only reality. It's like those posts on FF of people saying I made 10,000 pips! Yeah but how much MONEY did you make.(not even a question that is a statement :P )

Ryan vegas run lets do this
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  #44032  
Old Sep 17, 2009 3:33pm
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Originally Posted by manperm View Post
I'm the first person to say, "to each his own," because I could not care less what, or how, anyone else lives or trades....
The traders I work with(which are a lot at this point). The ones I have the toughest time with or have to spend the most time with are the ones who have been around the longest, or "learned" the most. I have to try to teach them to unlearn so many bad habits. Now that is not to say that they wouldn't have developed them either way. But, this is just from my experience. Too much information is bad, when it is useless information(which almost all of what I read is on forex b/c it is blind leading the blind). But I do think that learning about a topic, such as market microstructure is not only very interesting, but I do think it is helpful. I take concepts that are more theoretical and apply them in a functional way in my trading. The simplest and easiest to relay in a short post are round numbers. Now everyone knows them for being round numbers, but the workings of them go far deeper, but is it necessary to really really know that? My answer is a no. I am no better off for potentially having a bit more knowledge about them, then the guy/gal I say "PAY ATTENTION TO ROUND NUMBERS" The rest is experience in how to use them effectively to you own methods.

Just my mini rant, I blame SP for ranting to cause mine

Mike
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  #44034  
Old Sep 17, 2009 3:52pm
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Originally Posted by rikrok View Post
SP I agree, not very much detail is needed. After years working at the heart of banking /broking/ finance...
well said. This type of information could only be useful in help locating an edge in the market place. But not actually tell you what an edge is or even close to it. That is why it isn't cut and dry and a how to trade book taught in colleges. B/C trading is a very different ball game.

Well said
Mike
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  #44037  
Old Sep 17, 2009 4:35pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
Man when I was in Golf Port seeing my brother I got $100 out and never even played, I had no edge on anything and I knew I was just going to lose so I walked around lol. I think it's because I lost so much in the past in the market now I can control myself and I don't play unless I have a edge. Never thought going to a casino without spending money, just like I never bought a lotto ticket, bad odds again LOL BUT if you want to go and see some clubs or whatnot I am game just say when.
sunday at Rehab
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  #44042  
Old Sep 17, 2009 4:59pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
then...

good luck .
very very accurate
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  #44127  
Old Sep 18, 2009 1:40pm
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Josh this is an amazing post man!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
Good Morning everyone....
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  #44128  
Old Sep 18, 2009 1:47pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
You are NEVER going to make it if you have to know why, you can take 2 exact same setups, same time, same date same everything and one works and one does not work....
AMEN brotha

The market is always right, find your edge and simply rinse and repeat.
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  #44134  
Old Sep 18, 2009 2:38pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Yes , got a pm notification this afternoon. Two in fact.
popular actors pfft
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  #44145  
Old Sep 18, 2009 3:11pm
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
I got two of those from you (7:16pm and 7:52pm my time. It's now 7:59pm). But I also had PM notification from another member twice.
aaron can you do me a favor just post soemthing in my intraday thread. Want to see if I get notified
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  #44146  
Old Sep 18, 2009 3:15pm
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post


One of the most helpful hardest working dudes around

Salut!
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  #44149  
Old Sep 18, 2009 3:16pm
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Originally Posted by turnip15 View Post
Anyone please?
Hey Turnip

We use a buy stop or sell stop above the high/low of the bar. So If you are going long you can place a buy stop above the high(or some form of that if you want to put a limit on it to prevent slipping or bounds etc).

Is that what you were asking?

Let me know
Mike
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  #44182  
Old Sep 18, 2009 6:19pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
is forex factory screwed up right now or is it just me.

everything is solid white.
I think your computer needs a reboot
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  #44183  
Old Sep 18, 2009 6:19pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
to make money thats all you have to do.. find something you trust & repeat it.. ask Mike, James, Ryan, Bemac. anyone who has traded well (not just traded) for more than 10 years.. I bet thats what they do...
Yep.
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  #44211  
Old Sep 19, 2009 2:13pm
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Originally Posted by PipGator View Post
Hi, lovejoy.

Many folks here will recommend that price action beginners only buy when a pinbar forms at or near a swing low. I would pass on this setup, simply because I am not an advanced J16 trader and the pin is not at a swing low.

Also, regarding "4. Pin is not at a swing high / low in that it is not signalling a reversal...it is signalling a continuation.".... Some people actually will consider the candle on your chart a reversal signal. I believe it is called a "hangman"...There is a trader on this thread called Ghous who calls the...
Just wanted to say hello to lovejoy, and second Pips response.

We want to look for those pins at swing low points, that is a swing high like Gator said. What happens is buying into a fresh high like that, we can have lots of sell orders above that area, and people get caught in a quick reversal. Yes it certainly can signal a continuation, but we want to put ourselves in the best position, and I would be nervous buying new highs on just that bar alone(if it was a breakout + pullback that would be different for me).

Take care
Mike
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  #44243  
Old Sep 20, 2009 10:31pm
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Originally Posted by ong_gia View Post
Hello Everyone,

Any thoughts on the pin bar on Daily Chart, Sept. 17th?

It looks great from my end... please advise. I am new at this and have been followng for many months now and I am still demo trading to get the hang of it.

Thank you to all who have made this thread very informative for new guys like myself!

H.
Hey H

Glad you are enjoying the thread welcome.

The pin was too small for my liking(I am quite picky I am told). But we did have divergence, and then using our knowledge of support/resistance + a small bar the previous bars high(blue area), is our first trouble area and we basically have stalled there.

Here is a chart

Take care
MIke
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  #44290  
Old Sep 21, 2009 12:44pm
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Originally Posted by Que View Post
In the mean time, I am going to make this thread my home. If you guys do not mind, the next few posts will be asking some advice on current trades I am in and I will explain why I entered them.

Thanks for everything,

Que
Hey Que please do hang around here
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  #44295  
Old Sep 21, 2009 4:48pm
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Originally Posted by mkashifk View Post
Hi, appreciate if anyone check the following list of do's are correct.
1- Begining of the wk I draw a simple trend line for the wk.
2- then I draw the possibile support and resistence lines on the pair. I use the line charts which are based on close of the pair, then I change to bar charts and adjust the horizontal lines acording to the highs in the vicinity.
3- Then I draw the fibs on the wkly chart from the highest point to the lowest point.
4- On daily charts I draw the fibs from highest to lowest.
5- then I draw pivots on the daily.
6- then...
Hey MK

I think that is a good start to begin to limit things down. Just be careful not to overload on certain things. For examples for me personally I often see many people overloading the charts with fibs. Make sure to take the obvious ones. Sometimes I see a chart with lines everywhere and that can lead to analysis paralysis. If you use that template to begin to find trades, just make sure to keep it as clean and obvious as possible.

Be sure to post a chart or two so we can visually see what else we might be able to help you out with.

Look forward to some charts
Mike
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  #44298  
Old Sep 21, 2009 5:08pm
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Originally Posted by mkashifk View Post
Thanks Mike, posting a EurUsd chart. I forgot to mention, once I get the confluence area I clean all the fibs. Thanks for the indication.
Great! Nice clean chart and that is an area of interest to me as well

Best
Mike
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  #44302  
Old Sep 21, 2009 6:02pm
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
just wondering if anyone has any opinions on the latest gold pa. is gold still bullish? depends what feed you have but the pin is probably a B grade one? wouldve been better with a stronger close into the previous bar? not sure
Not a pin on mine since the open and close are not within the prior bar which means we prob have to go higher still to close it, but nothing worth getting involved since this pin is a swing high. This means no space which can mean immediate traffic.

I do agree we should be watching this area like a hawk. But still in wait mode for me

Mike
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  #44361  
Old Sep 22, 2009 12:29pm
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Originally Posted by FunkyJee View Post
Hey guys i got another question, im trying to practice me drawing PPZ areas. I put some charts below can you tell if im on the good way ?

Any valuable comments welcome
Regards
Hey FunkyJee

Yes these are done well, just remember one thing. These are zones, not lines. So if you took each of those lines on your chart, and used the rectangle tool in mt4 to enlarge them, you will now be able to see how these are "areas/zones" we must look out for rather then a single line. We also will have more minor PPZs within these larger zones, that can then become our focus once we are in a trade for mgmt.

Let me know if that makes sense

Mike
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  #44379  
Old Sep 22, 2009 5:22pm
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Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
i think 1 of the good things about the eg trade is that it has alot of space
Just my take on both these as I talked about on the other side

Both bars to me are just too small in comparison to the run we just made. Small bars frankly scare the hell out of me. Too much to go wrong. On gbp/aud we have a lower close that just looks sloppy(yes divergence, so we might be slowing down soon but would rather a big pin or buob). And on the eur/gbp we have the .9000 level directly underneath.

I would be which means those that trade it need to be extra fast with moving stops or not be taking full bar losses on these less the stellar bars.

Just my 2 cents

Mike
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  #44422  
Old Sep 23, 2009 12:16pm
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Hey T,

An OHLC bar chart(as we use here) and a candlestick chart show the EXACT same information.

So this means use what you are comfortable with. In fact I use both, simply from boredom and sometimes a change on my eyes. But I can see the exact same information on both. The only reason I recommend BAR charts to new traders on this thread, is b/c most charts here are posted in BAR and most traders can't visually see the difference as quickly. So it helps to be more aligned with the thread.

But do not worry your information is the same. The only real visual difference is the bodies are filled, which might either help or distract from what is going on.

Best
mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
hey guys here is a problem I'm struggling, and need some inputs from you guys.

the emotional power of the candlestick chart versus bar-chart.

I think that the trader psychologic it's involved in making the decision beteween witch chart to choose.

For me I like the candlestick chart because I can grab more information(this I was thinking)but when I look to james chart or mike's chart I have the feeling that I'm looking to a different chart although is the same pair and the same TF.

I know that james recommended to use bar chart, because it's...
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  #44423  
Old Sep 23, 2009 12:19pm
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Hallo to everybody and of course thanks for the help you give to the newbie like me.....
Question: Using longer time frame as daily/4h do you take note of the news that are coming out during the day or the price already incorporate the sentiment of the market??

Hope you understand my poor english.....
Hey Benem

James completely ignores the news, I do as well. Some here use it, I think it distracts from the chart, and everything can be seen right in front of our eyes

Your English is great

Mike
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  #44431  
Old Sep 23, 2009 3:08pm
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Originally Posted by cchad3 View Post
I am new to your thread and really like what I'm seeing. Have started reading from the first post and have a question about broker closing times. I'm running several demo accounts from dofferent brokers and their 00:00 GMT varies from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM central. This makes the apperance of the bars on the smaller time frames different. A pin bar on one broker station does not appear on the other. What is the prefered time CST for 00:00 GMT?

Thanks
Cliff
Hey Cliff

Welcome to our little home

The answer really is whatever broker you are comfortable with. I use a few brokers to get a few different views of the aggregation of the bars. What this tells us is that it is all about LOCATION. Location is everything with this stuff. The bars are simply trigger points off that.

As for daily close I prefer 5pm est close(which is close to NY close). I am not sure what that translates too in GMT, but FXpro is that.

Again welcome and hang around

Mike
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  #44548  
Old Sep 24, 2009 7:18pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
That yellow PPZ is going to be troublesome... IMHO of course. Check it out on the daily - I say, there are better places to place a bet - if you are looking at the table.

RAC might just get his wish and and the UC will float up a bit - but not like he wants - not yet... December perhaps.
yeah this one looks more like a pause pin / little profit taking then anything worth trading into those highs right under it
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  #44552  
Old Sep 24, 2009 7:53pm
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Originally Posted by mike w View Post
D'oh! I must be up the creek without a paddle if the whole gang is indifferent on that usd/cad. I see it as prime time down to 1.0850 to be honest. Big pin at a high and if I wait for the retracement, I'll normally know by that point whether it's still good or not, so I can jump in for a very small risk. It looks like that point is coming up soon so I'll jump down to the lowers and see how price is reacting in the "bucket area".
Don't be persuaded by me though

I just see a huge bullish move small pin, with a lot of support at 1.0850(we both agree on that which is probably the msot important point). I could see a small retrace before a resumption. Still hasn't broke the low on mine. There is a high from sept 15 if that can hold it down it would happen around now, if not up up and away it looks like.

Mike W has been at this awhile, so he knows the forums are where we share ideas not where we trade off others. One trade doesn't make a method.
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  #44554  
Old Sep 24, 2009 8:12pm
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No worries brother, I don't let any other trades persuade my decisions- I've done that in the past and been screwed for it lol

I hear ya on that, and I see the same as well....

awesome Mike

I think this has more potential on a retrace then on a break

Mike
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  #44580  
Old Sep 25, 2009 12:16am
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Originally Posted by pavulon2007 View Post
ps. i am thinking that the whole issue of intermarket relations fe: dollar- stocks, gold- dollar or oil- cad, currency pairs correlation etc are kind of left aside in this thread.. isn't it crucial for a general market understanding ?
to be completly honest, I don't think it is at all neccesary. Maybe I am bias b/c I don't need any of it. But a lot of people I greatly respect don't use that type of stuff either. Of course with learning and watching markets you just see things you can't help but take note of like some of what you mention above. But a chart really is a chart. Most of my highly educated finance MBA friends blah blah etc etc could talk me so far under the table fundamentally, but they couldn't trade even slightly(like the rest of the world). Most people I know that can talk about all that stuff sound great. They impress me they really do. But very few use that information in any meaningful way. The few that do are already great traders, and know what it takes. One of the most amazing people I ever read talk about fundies was Merlin. Man some of you just don't know how smart that man was! Search his old posts(many which have been disolved), if you care to see some amazing calls.

Don't know why I ramble, so I end with, trade the charts

Why need anything else when we have it all from James like this. Usd/chf, old support, turned to resistance, now broke through. Will it become support again? Maybe, maybe not. But I can be well prepared either way

Just my thoughts
Mike
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  #44585  
Old Sep 25, 2009 12:27am
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You got that right about Merlin. I love going over posts that were from around 04-06. Do yourselves a favor and read through. Thanks Mike, I know what I'm doing early tomorrow morning now.
Can't even tell you how many hours I spent doing that! It was like christmas everyday. But a lot of them you can't even get to anymore since a few of the updates. You can't just do "search all posts" and get everything. I consider myself lucky to be here early enough to catch em!

Old FF was wayyyyyyyyy different
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  #44587  
Old Sep 25, 2009 12:32am
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Explain the comparison and how exactly you would compare it and I can add it to the indicator.

Que
What bundy is getting at is technically speaking the bar below is a pin. But you would have to be nutty to trade that small bar against the huge moves. So if you somehow designate that the pin needs to be X amount of size based on ATR. Or maybe something like you can input minimum amount of pips for each pair you do. So for example a 4hr bar on gbp/chf I might input minimum bar size = 100 pips. Then I could change it at will as I see a market tighten or expand.
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  #44590  
Old Sep 25, 2009 12:47am
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Originally Posted by Que View Post
You might have noticed, but I like percentages as they are dynamic. Given your post, what if I did an option that said look x bars back (user config of course) and total pin size must be y percent (user config) minimum of any of those bars.

So in your example if you looked back 3 bars and said the pin must be at least 75% of the sixe of any of those bars, it would not trigger.

Que
I suppose either would work, I personally would probably prefer a pip input for the bar. But I know nothing about this programming stuff

Best
Mike
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  #44593  
Old Sep 25, 2009 12:56am
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I can easily make it both.

if greater than x % of ATR or Pip amount, whichever is greater. If you want to specify a pip amount you put the % to 0. Because the pip amount will always be greater than 0% of the ATR.

Que
You are talented
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  #44619  
Old Sep 25, 2009 10:43am
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Originally Posted by pavulon2007 View Post
hi mike
thanks I will look up merlin's posts. i think we are on the same page with fundies. i personally don't have enough knowledge and expierence to come even close to comprehend this vast topic. i try to know when nonfarm comes up or sth like this and that's my fundamental analisis ....
Hey Pavulon

Yeah I don't do any of that sort of weakness type stuff either. Again I am such a lazy person that would make my life to complicated :P

The only way to attach a chart from oanda is to screen shot your desktop and paste it into a program like paint then save a file there.

Best
Mike
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  #44653  
Old Sep 26, 2009 1:49pm
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Hi.

I have a question to the more experienced members here. Dont you think that I overact with this PPZ.I am kinda confused. It is a mess in my head with this PPZ. I see everywhere PPZ I took only one trade for 2 weeks because of those PPZ. Should I look for more valuable PPZ or something ? Please help me
Hey Atton

You have marked both the major ppz in that area(the middle one) and then the minor ppz, both are important but it depends on the context. I see no good PA bars, and a pretty messy overall area. Don't go searching for trades. Let the trades come to you, then this information becomes more powerful.

Best
Mike
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  #44656  
Old Sep 26, 2009 2:16pm
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Originally Posted by atton View Post
Hi there Ben. It is Usd/Chf 4H TF.

Hi Mike. Thanks for answering. I wasnt talking about a PA. My point was that I always always x 100 :P see only PPZ near the price and I never get in trade because of them.
Hey A

Post up some trades that you didn't take or did take it makes it easier to help

Thanks
Mike
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  #44660  
Old Sep 26, 2009 2:52pm
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Hey A

That first usd/cad is the only decent trade. The other 2 should be passed on and that is part of why they "look bad". Because they are. The worse a trade is the closer the trouble area.

The usd/cad you did identify a first potential problem area which gave some pips. A bit lower is the more main problem area on your chart there is more of a flip going on. With these lower timeframes you have to be nimble, and the ones you hold have to have extra super confluence, beyond just a pinbar. Now you could have many ways to actually manage this trade, depending on the trader. It isn't clean cut exactly what to do. i know for a fact no one should take a loss on that trade. I would have set a take profit at 1.0735ish and as price came close to it would have move my stop above the bar high after the pin. All about cutting your losses when you can and making sure not to be taking huge losses all the time.

Remember the price bar is such a small small piece to what we do here. It is all about location. And charts 2 and 3 are very poor poor price bars. Stick to bars that look like usd/cad one you posted and good locations and you will make great progress.

Hope that helps just my views
Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by atton View Post
Hi.

These are some of the trades that I didnt take because of the PPZ.
I know that the newcomers shouldnt be daytrading. But the funny thing with me is that I have around 10 months experience. Seven of them was profitable. I was daytrading with 1k acc but I was using a strategy that I didnt know why I ve been taking the signals. Some of you might think that I am crazy b/s I was profitable and I ve stopped using that strategy but I didnt know why I was doing the trades and everytime when I had a winner or a looser I couldnt...
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  #44662  
Old Sep 26, 2009 3:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atton View Post
Hi Mike

Thanks, thanks and thanks I think I know get it. Like you said we should identify our confluence zones ( by emas ppz round numbers fibo? ) and then look for a PA with a little space for our stop to get to BE. So if we have nice confluence the small PPZ will not oppose our trades is that right?
Damn when I understand something another question comes out. (human nature). I hope I dont piss you off with my questions. If we have confluence with nice PB but also we have a ppz on our close price on...
of course your questions don't piss me off

The answer is there is no exact answer. Some people will always move stop at first trouble area. For me it depends on the bar+conflunce and what that first area looks like. I wish I had a better answer, but each situation is very unique to me and I try to look at it like that. So sometime a bar is in such a good location, I don't really work about a bar high , sometimes I do. I hope that isn't discouraging, what it means is as you get more comfortable, understand the material and gain the valuable experience it all falls into place

Let me know if you have more questions no matter how many
Mike
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  #44664  
Old Sep 26, 2009 4:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atton View Post
I knew that the answer might be something like that.So.. What was so great about the daily pin on gbp/usd, we were trading right against a big PPZ. I have PM about other issue.
It certainly wasn't A+. So with that knowledge what do we do at that big trouble area? We protect ourselves, we can move our stops down, an dthen this thing cut right through. So even if you got your stop to b/e the thing ran. If it bounced your out at b/e and onto the next trade. This material can be used in so many ways that is the actual beauty because your method comes from what works best for you. I avoid these trades, b/c I am more comfortable with other trades. But it isn't wrong to take a trade like that either.

Best
Mike
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  #44685  
Old Sep 27, 2009 1:46pm
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Originally Posted by stoiter View Post
hey guys!
im slowly working my way through from page 1.. im a little over 10% .. hopefully one day ill catch up.

i just got back from overseas to find you all added a couple hundred pages

mbqb11- i find it amazing you were involved in the early days and your still here selflessly helping people, even though youve probably answered the same questions hundreds of times.
My suggestion? Don't go back overseas, you might come back to another 1k pages

Welcome
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  #44686  
Old Sep 27, 2009 2:00pm
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Originally Posted by lovejoy80 View Post
Hi, what do people think about this pin (I know it is a day old) but has not been broken yet in my view.

If I were to play this I would enter on abreak above 1.2119 PPZ area...with first target the cluster of bar low and round number PPZ - 1.2200. I would put initial stop at the first eye low and round number of 1.2000.

If I were to play this trade, the new bar open would be 10pm tonight GMT and thus the trade could reach first PPZ area for example when I am asleep. How do others manage trades where the daily bar closes and thus analysis and entry...

Be careful here lovejoy. That pin on your feed was caused by a bad spike data. Price never made it that low. If you place your chart on the hourly you can see the bad spike.


Mike
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  #44687  
Old Sep 27, 2009 2:07pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Please indulge me... (non-trading related)

Please visit this thread
Help needed.
Thank you!
Prayers are with everyone over there I will donate as well. Stay safe

Mike
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  #44716  
Old Sep 27, 2009 10:18pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
We've ALL gotten pickier with time. ...Don't worry, you will too. LOL ...You can't escape it.



Agree with your Clean charts = Clean mind too.

agree highly with both these statements. Mostly because both apply to me very much
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  #44727  
Old Sep 28, 2009 1:55am
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Originally Posted by Que View Post
Does anyone know the names of any of the forum moderators?

I have an issue of copy write infringement and I need it handles as soon as possible. A forum user blatantly decompiled and posted the source of some of my code. I have asked him to remove it and to please refrain from doing it in the future. The response I got was:

"I hold the right to decompile anything in hidden format. I will do it, if the source is not shared with the community."

I am not sure what country this fellow is from, but I assure you this is not a legal practice in the...
click the little broom thing next to his post by the post number. That goes right to Twee
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  #44748  
Old Sep 28, 2009 12:01pm
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Originally Posted by gasgas View Post
Hey guys

Got a question: You setting up a trade lets say on Gbp/Usd !! Do you look at other crosses with pound to, what is going on, to establish how strong Gbp is at that moment??
Or do you watch only current chart with a signal on and don't care if you get oposite signal on other gbp pairs?

Thanks
Hey Gasgas

I don't really watch other pairs all that much. Some pairs I do that though are the xxx/jpy pairs. But it is sort of hard to avoid knowing what say the USD is doing, or the JPY, or the CAD since I look at a lot of charts. But I stick to the chart is a chart more times then not

Just my thoughts
Mike
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  #44751  
Old Sep 28, 2009 12:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benem View Post
On my feed i have Daily Beob at 76Fib with PPZ confluence and 1.09 round number....
Does it worth to take this trade with first tirget at the doble bottom 1.0650??
I would be very gun shy to trade right into this area(marked in blue). Sideways markets you have to be nimble, or move your stops very quick.

Again just how I see it of course

Hope you had a nice weekend B

Mike
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  #44752  
Old Sep 28, 2009 1:01pm
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Originally Posted by gasgas View Post
Hey Mike

I do it to! If I'm on to trade jpy pair, I go threw few jen pairs to see how strong jen really is, but I'm thinking now, I don't need this habbit.
Actually I was short on E/J on 23.9 and kill the trade B/C I saw BUOB on G/J. So I missed that big move on Jen last week . The signal was fine, so it was stupid of me to kill it so soon.

Well keep on learning right

Regards,
Hey G

yeah that is where looking at too much and over analyzing can hurt us. Usually the way I use that kind of strength/weakness is as follows.

I will see multiple signals on correlated pairs. Example. 5 pinbars on all the xxx/jpy pinbars. This shows a lot of strength/weakness . I then pick the best one and manage it according to the chart. I also have 4 monitors so I can't help but see things occurring across all currencies.

At the end of the day, I do let the charts guide me home :P

Mike
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  #44767  
Old Sep 28, 2009 5:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
These are the days that drive me nuts

Looking at the GBPCHF & EurGBP they are so tempting beautiful pins with great space. I am just trying to break the habbit of catching the falling knife....
The most tempting for me is the eur/gbp. It was rather easy for me to pass on gbp/chf and the nzd/jpy

I am also going to pass on eur/gbp just lack of confluence and uncertainty. I have learned that passing is always better then itching to trade.

Here is where price is likely to go. But everyone MUST trade what THEY see. That is what makes a trader

I was hoping to see a strong close on gbp/jpy which would have increased my confidence all across. That lack of pinbar close. I am just going to watch the smaller timeframes for clues.



Mike
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  #44769  
Old Sep 28, 2009 5:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desperate View Post
hi bakko

on my charts ,on the daily its a bearish outside bar not closed yet,
not a pin
Hey D

Careful here that isn't an outside bar. It must have a higher HIGH then the previous bars High as well.

Mike
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  #44773  
Old Sep 28, 2009 5:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atton View Post
Hi Dmc. What is the falling knife
When price is dropping very hard and fast(ie very big bearish bars). Trying to catch it with a small bar is dangerous. I like to personally see an equally big bullish bar to reverse

Mike
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  #44774  
Old Sep 28, 2009 5:33pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Let's see how they break Mike.
hehe Anyone who trades Jarroo style is licking their chops I know that much
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  #44801  
Old Sep 28, 2009 10:43pm
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Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post

Someone just flipped on a flood light
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  #44807  
Old Sep 28, 2009 11:38pm (47 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by cvcamper View Post
How do you develop the discipline to not look at the dollar amount... I have a VERY long history of watching the $ instead of the graph... hence taking minor profits when it was a perfect setups. or going to BE when if I had not been watching the $ it would have run. Any help or ideas?
I personally think it just comes down to doing what works or what doesn't. If you are paying attention to the $ amount and it is changing your trading decision(for the negative), you will continue to beat yourself up and play the money game instead of the probability game. You either beat yourself up enough and change or beat yourself up and continue to lose(till usually one blows up and/or quits). It takes that first step with any part of trading. The first time you pass on that C+ trade, the next time it is easier too. That first time you stop moving your stop loss, the next time it is easier not too. I think of it as simply changing mindset and habits. I do believe that the psyche side is much deeper then this post, but just a few insights. Many brokers allow you to hide your P&L in $ amounts. Although I don't think this will solve the problem it might help for now. THen when the $ amounts increase we usually battle it again. My solution? Get pickier.

Mike
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  #44828  
Old Sep 29, 2009 2:16am (44 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by stoiter View Post
i am long gbpjpy at break of pin, sl at low.

the pin could have closed higher but i like the location none the less.

thoughts?
Hey S

Just from a technical standpoint that is not a pin as it must close within the previous bar. I was hoping we had a strong close on it but that didn't happen.

Best
Mike
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  #44859  
Old Sep 29, 2009 12:45pm (34 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FinnTrader View Post
Nice day. Got 50pips from AUDJPY daily pb and 108pips from GBPCHF daily pb.
Very nice

Also glad to see many of you manage these bars the proper way.

The best of the best IMO was the eur/gbp simply based on size but the others all got to and/or past the first trouble areas like James16 teaches


Mike
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  #44861  
Old Sep 29, 2009 1:10pm (33 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
It occurs to me that Trading is a lot like golf.

A lot of golfers either thrive on the long ball or the short game....
awesome SP!

Yep, turn on any PGA event. Look at all the different styles/swings/putters/clubs

Trading is no different. I said this to someone in a post today. This is both a good thing, because we have many options(that is how I look at it NOW). But when learning this causes overtrading/confusion b/c we try to do too much. Do a few things good and work from there

All I picture is soft elevator music, SP in a sweater drinking a scotch, and a gentle womans voice say. "And now thoughts from SP". "this has been thoughts from SP". LOL

Mike
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  #44869  
Old Sep 29, 2009 2:05pm (33 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hi Mike,

I remember you posting once a chart of Oanda.
Do you do all your charting on MT4 demo, and place the orders on Oanda as well?

Ben
yes I chart with MT4 brokers and trade with Oanda and MB

Best
Mike
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  #44872  
Old Sep 29, 2009 2:39pm (32 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by montmorency View Post
I know next to nothing about golf, but this seems like a very nice analogy.
pick a sport any sport, I can draw the same analogies :P
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  #44874  
Old Sep 29, 2009 2:42pm (32 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
hey mike just a question if you do not mind because i intended to to the same, to open an account with oanda (only 500$) and my charts on mt4. witch mt4 broker are you using because it's important to have at least the same quotes, or do you not give any importants to this situation.

if we play breakouts and do not have the same quotes, we can end up by taking trades, that in our mt4 could never been triggered.

thanks!
Hey Triger

The only adjustments I make are to the highs and lows. Spot forex quotes are going to be VERY VERY close. So if I have a pin on mt4 and the high is say 1.0050. I simply looking for the same high on my oanda broker and use that high. So if that high is 1.0053 on oanda, I take that high. That is the only real difference. The lower the timeframe the more important some of the differences become. But especially trading off 1hr and higher it is pretty simple to switch back and forth.

Best
Mike
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  #44897  
Old Sep 29, 2009 7:13pm (27 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by fxdummie View Post
James, I am new for your thread,
would you tell me what MT4 platform you use to detect 1d and 4h set up bars?
Thanks!
Welcome Fx(not calling you dummie )

James uses IBFX(interbank FX). Some of us use FXpro, or alpari. Whatever you are comfortable with really

But to line up with Jim, IBFX

Best
Mike
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  #44901  
Old Sep 29, 2009 8:11pm (26 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
...for all your efforts. Great to see you around and of course thank you for all your effort and time spent.


I know I should be already enlightened about prinicipal issues in price action but just want to use a chance to ask: If on the daily, the close price is above the first area of resistance (bar closes above the resistance level) it may well mean: price will bounce and go up or price will go through Attachment 325650
My question is: if the price closes above that level should it be a time to adjust the stop losses to breakeven...
Hey P,

Ultimately it is trader discretion what to do with these areas. The foundation is understanding where price is likely to go/bounce. Then one has to decide what to do there. Many will automatically go to b/e when price gets there. I personally make it up to my discretion. If I think a trade is very strong I will look for ways to reduce my risk(move stop trail stops in some way). On all these trades they are heavily countertrend, and running into strong areas. With cases like that I prefer to take what the market gave me with a take profit or at worst case a b/e trade. So it is highly situational. For example the gbp/chf was too small of a pin for me to trade into the big round number at 1.65. But our knowledge of s/r says ok that is the first trouble area. Then I would go into the thought process of do I think this has legs? If yes then stop goes to b/e with this type of pin and let it play out. If not I would outright take profit there. Then of course you could look to see if the 1.65 now turns into support on its way back down to retest(which is what I am watching for). But with such a strong downtrend, a move lower again is far from out of the question(look at gbp/usd approaching 1.6 or gbp/jpy 145.00.)

Wish I had a more clear cut answer

Mike
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  #44904  
Old Sep 29, 2009 8:18pm (26 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by pakiestra View Post
I hope I haven't done something wrong by asking Mike about it...
I'm really sorry I have to do that and repeat
THE JAMES16 CHART THREAD IS JUST PURE GOLD !
Thanks to all of you here I'm learning and have a great chance to read and be with you while reading, that's alone is worth pure gold. I apologise for my grammar as English is not my first language and also apologise for my asking silly questions.
not silly questions at all and your English is terrific
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  #44956  
Old Sep 30, 2009 12:09pm (10 hr ago)
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Welcome taking the pip

Great first trade, you picked the first trouble area out. Often our urge is to get as much possible out and we forget and ignore those first trouble areas. That 90 mark is a very important area on my chart big round number + PPZ = could reverse a trade.

Look forward to more posts from you

Mike

Quote:
Originally Posted by takingthepip View Post
...

Hello from Ireland.

First post on this thread.

A big thank you to James16 et al. for this great trading education.

I've been following the J16 thread for many weeks and have started to trade it more seriously on a demo account for the last week or so with good results. I'm sticking to Daily setups only for the moment.

Okay if I chime in now and then with my efforts?

I started learning about trading at the beginning of this year and spent a few months demoing the DIBs method mostly. There are so many systems on FF, but J16's stood...
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  #44959  
Old Sep 30, 2009 3:32pm (7 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by vlazaf View Post
Three trades - one Crude oil chart, obviously not posted real time but will attempt to do so in the future.

1st Trade: 61.8 Fib retrace at RN 72 and minor PPZ

2nd Trade: Break and retest

3rd Trade: Trend line bounce and DBLHC

all on the hourly, marked with a tick.

Sincere thanks to James and Thread.
awesome man
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  #44960  
Old Sep 30, 2009 3:33pm (7 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bakko85 View Post
Retrace is over, ready to resume downtrend?
Similar setup on GbpUsd and GbpChf.
I like both but especially GbpUsd because:
- Nice pin bar
- PPZ at 1.60
- 150EMA
Yes certainly could be Bakko, after those strong move down, even if we work higher sellers will come in

Mike
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  #44972  
Old Sep 30, 2009 5:50pm (5 hr ago)
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Originally Posted by Primi View Post
Hey!

Can somebody please explain to me how come my sl got hit but price never even touched 0,91380? It was a sell order to close my position so spread is not an issue. Is there something I'm missing?

P
Hey P I am confused here you were short with a stop loss at .9138? Price has gone past that?

Sorry I am missing something I know can you clarify so I can try to help

Mike
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  #44977  
Old Sep 30, 2009 6:05pm (5 hr ago)
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It didn't. I was watching it very closely. It only reached 0,91392.

P
If it's demo you can't really tell much. If you are live contact your broker with the ticket number and they can give you a better explanation (but it is hard to win over a pip :P )

Mike
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