Do you guys put a blind trade sell order at 1.41 for the EURO, it is 61.8% retrace of the big fall from and important ppz and round number. 1.4341 and 1.3750, also other fib confluence at this location.
Just curious how you guys be confident putting a blind sell order at 1.41 without any PA occurs?
Thanks!
Pipping
Hi PM,
I am no where near Mark in any sense,
But my blind entries look for long tails most of the time. Which means I don't take first touch trades frequently (unless it is really obvious) 1.41 is a good area yes. What I would like is a 4H bar that touches 1.41 and then close well below it. A blind trade will then target the test of this high which is a lot more safe and PA backed...it's important for somebody like me who 1) is ill experienced at the art, 2) don't use fundi's as an added edge.
Example:
Eu chart appended. look at the twin bar highs highlighted (2). These are near the 1.41 round number some time back. Notice how the first 4H bar tests a previous distinct bar high (1) and then closes below 1.41, the next bar goes up to test this high (by the pip is a rare rare case) this is where a blind trade get's triggered. Bind because I didn't wait for an inside, outside or a pin bar but somehow still PA backed...
("Tails"...are one of my recent research projects. )
Some other ways I trade my blind entries are breakouts and retests and double tops double bottoms etc, but they are not relevant for now.
Rac will pool in with a diff school of thought, his crystal ball is his only. lol!
Regards,
Ghous.
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Due to lack of response, my current conclusion = Perhaps not.
On the other hand, ghous has made No response since I posted this offer. perhaps, he is sleeping.
Yeah I was asleep. Need to hit the gym early in the morning so a good night's sleep is important.
I don't use a %age risk trail stop either just the conventional manual trail stop ensuring that it does not violate my MM constraints.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
A Past Blast....
[color=Blue][i]Hi folks,
As some of you know I have, only recently, moved to a MetaTrader Platform.
Therefore, I am now without a few of the Tools I used to carry in my toolbox. {funny how learning a different language can, sometimes, make you feel lost.}
This is not something that you would be likely to use on a Scalping Method but moreso on one of those Trades that take off & you are up 50P before you know it.
Here's how it works. Let's use a Long Trade as an example.
I Buy EUR/USD @ 1.3500 & before I know it I'm UP 50P.
Q)...
uh...oh...
I see why you were in such a hurry to get a response from me. lol!
This needs to be tried out...
Thanks Bmac.
Regards,
Ghous.
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Ghous: "Yes jarroo, that's the same formations I was illustrating on the Eur/Cad. Now, notice that they were on the Weekly time frame so their strength and responsiveness will be better reflected. We all know how you feel about higher time frames jarroo."
jarroo: "Thanks ghous. Your the best."
...
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#3. Bullish PB to top of consolidation, if it broke. (darn it.)
Wanting more pips then beyond the "Top" and Bottom" targets without protecting yourself is suicide.
hehe, James has got himself a lot of hands.
personally i like to play these consolidation battle fields on lower time frames over the mini trends. It's easier and the profit/pips potential is roughly the same (talking strictly of choppy sideways markets on daily and above) except that it requires more experience of coarse.
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personally i like to play these consolidation battle fields on lower time frames over the mini trends. It's easier and the profit/pips potential is roughly the same (talking strictly of choppy sideways markets on daily and above) except that it requires more experience of coarse.
For example...
The same Gu daily consolidation zone Jarroo pointed out...consists of many lower time frame trends, it get's easier to spot and play the old timers.
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Just as a brotherly advice try looking for the really good ones for the first few months you're at it. The ones with that are real big compared to the bars beside them and have long distinct noses pointing away from the vicinity of PA, the stand out ones.
This is important because earlier on you need to build your confidence and start believing in these bars, reading is one thing experiencing it live is another, and this can be done only when you can prove to be consistently good with these. Since you don't have the experience needed to tackle such moderate PA bars it is strictly recommended that you stick to the obvious setups,
swing highs/lows, heavy confluence zones, deep pull backs in a established trend, all can be great locations to tradet good pin bars.
Let us know if we can assist you further,
Regards,
Ghous.
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I found so many pairs have formed the IPB today, most of the Yen pairs.
Do you think it is tradable? I want to get in but too late since I do not have too much confidence on the IPB yet.
Pippingmama
Hi PM,
Sorry for the late reply, I am asleep (Mike's only 1 ) during the Asian sessions.
Most of these IPBs are at good locations but I don't like the shapes, they are way too small, for them to be powerful you need them long and authoritative.
But a good break below the close of these bearish IPBs confirm their validity.
It's good that you did not trigger any trades despite the temptation. Practice them on your demo till you get good with them PM...an advice not uncommon.
Regards,
Ghous.
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hey tac mate, i feel you were a bit defensive with your responce to eswapO's posts. they were trying to help. the only point they were trying to make is that the point at which you have used for the second touch for ur TL is not a good. think about it price nust keep falling to make that TL valid. the fact you were talking about it as a confluence gave us reason to be concerned as it wouldnt be.(untill price dropped AT LEAST and for me a third reaction to validate the line.) just dont want you to waste any money old bean,
good luck
jon
p.s....
Hear HEAR!
It's the TL guy...
Good job Jon.
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ohho!! stop right there sir ghous!!
i know nothing! just pointing out the obvious mate. wouldnt want to see cash thrown away.
jon
p.s. u are up early arnt u!! ahhh the energy of youth!! lol
pps. thats actually my name...Guy ! haha
lol!
It's 10:53 am here bro, I am fortunate enough to see the sun during the Ny and London session and have the liberty to sleep through the boring Asian sessions (night time here in Pakistan).
Ghous.
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Not defensive just trying to help people, trendlines are drawn on 2 or more touches, like you have drawn in your chart. The trendline I drew is hit 4-5 times by daily bars, maybe not fractals. I wouldn't trade based on just that I also mentioned the round number then 2 fibs levels from different swings. I would call that confluence.
Hope that helps you. Good trading.
Tac
Jon's right Tac,
The trend line you drew was just not valid.
trend lines are drawn on more than 2 touches not 2 or more touches.
It is pretty ok to be wrong at times, after all we're all here to correct and be corrected.
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for what it is worth. James does not even use trendlines. Just horizontal support and resistance. I only personally use Extremely clear trendlines for breakouts.
Mike
yes,
It's funny how they can mislead, specially when drawn on the higher time frames. You mis draw them by a millimeter and it turns out you miss an entire breakout and retest trade on the 4h because all the time price was above your trend line.
They work best when like Mike said they are obvious to the pip.
Ghous.
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I agree and with Mt4 they kinda move around when you switch time frames. PPZ's especially and round numbers are much easier to see and everyone can see them. As you and Mike say only the obvious trendlines just so you can be aware of them, not necessarily using them to trade off.
.
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Ghous,
Nice range trade 'scalp'.
knowing correct & strong PPZs & S/Rs helps even in times of consolidation/range.
Leave a few positions for a possible range break towards
+/- 0.72 - 0.74 area
A range breakout will be treated with respect.
A new order on a retest of 1.754 if this level breaks.
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I had Q(s) about this kind of trading style. Do you still take the trigger bar (the indecision bar, IPB) if it high is lower than the previous bar or in other word, it formed inside the previous bar given it formed in good PPZ with confluences.
Thanks bud.
Yup any PA bar could have worked on a location this great...
Again the PA bars are less important than the location over which they occur.
So although my trigger was merely just an indecision bar the great location gave it the weight worthy of a trade.
Ghous.
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Is it the nice IPBs & be expecting to go up...or it will breaks the lower trendline soon? Since i see it closed below the nice round number of 2.040 and seems ....the end of inversed flag pattern...and start to breakout?
How you guys for your pro. analysis!
Thank you
forexngo
Hi Fxngo,
The evidence of a ppz is clear and the IPB seems to have formed on the 50 fib too. however PA on this pair recently has been very choppy with lot's of whippy tails around and the IPB leaving a good southern tail gives more of an indecision kind of look than a solid bullish signal.
Won't call it a "no trade" though but not in the A+ zone for sure...
Regards,
Ghous.
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Ill be trading the daily charts for the next 3 months (at least)....
Firstly none of the approaches are wrong.
They say 'The path to successful forex trading is indeed a lonely one'
The answer to most of your questions lie within you.
I personally Like and use the 2nd approach. It's a good way to keep you trim and tidy of which I am a big fan, but again that's just me and you could be different.
I see it in your sig...'I do it and I understand'...a great advice! Just follow it Bro,
The best way to find the answer to your question is to try both of these and see which suits you.
Regards,
Ghous.
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Finding your chart is so nice & clear..so i am aping setting up my chart to yours
In my chart..i see the IPB is better that not much choppy with whippy tails. And i found the weekly support and 50% fibo, plus trendline...as a strong confluence. But what i am confusing is that the price now is completed F Wave of Inversed Flag Pattern...so it may break at this point?
i am finding this J16 method is the great and sticking to play this price of action as the best method...but, to be honest...i am still confusing on how...
I see what you're talking abt,
Firstly we're not dealing with a holy grail...
Get this straight as an arrow...no space for any variables or exceptions of any degree sort or class...just a flat simple fact.
So when you cannot expect to win 100% of the times, and losses are inevitable, it's always a good idea to greet them well and learn to accommodate them amongst your winners that make you proud.
All that you've got to do is to clearly outline the confluence sources, and trade good obvious locations and PA bars most conservatively i.e with a stop loss above/below the PA bar and let price do it's thing...
Abt the "huge" stop loss thing....it stops worrying you when you stop looking at it as a 150 pip stop. If the 150 pips make up 2-3% of your account and you look at it like this would you still worry?
Just focus on good bars at good locations concentrating your efforts on higher time frames, fill up any gap left with good sensible money management and you're on your way.
PS try to keep your studies based strictly off Price Action and support and resistance. Price patterns and wave formations are both entire methods on their own and you're probably stretching it a little too much by trying to include these in your analysis, not putting a question mark on these methods but keeping it simple...as simple as possible for at least the first few months is a paramount factor to your long term success with this method.
All the best Bro,
Regards,
Ghous.
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OK, let me ask before Ghous answers. See this is a perfect example of what I meant by being mystified about these bars.
Since both of them were unable to break (close) the previous bar, and with everything else you mentioned, this would be a shot at a short? Or because buyers were able to push them back up after a series of bullish climbs in previous days, a long? My thinking is this is a nice retrace and a shot at going short.
Geezzz SO much to learn....
I am looking at it as a short for sure.
This is just like dealing with a 2 bar pin bar or any other PA bar. so when a pin bar occurs after a pin bar it is only considered a 2 bar pin bar and does not loose it's authenticity, same goes for an IPB.
@TAC
IPB would be an inverted pin bar not an inside pin bar.
Regards,
Ghous.
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We have this Daily IPB on NZD/USD.
If the Price breaches the 0,6400 and the low of the IPB we have a good signal to short the pair.
On H4 we have a fine PB that confirmed the IBP on the Daily, but don?t enter at the break low of this PB because it?s above the 0,6400and the 61.8 Fib.
Wait and be patiently for the break of the level and the low of the Daily IPB.
Hope i anlayze this correctly, we?ll see.
It?s only my view .
Trade well
Martin
Honestly I was hoping to see 0.64 but this last Friday turned out to be just another Friday at the office.
Let's see what Monday and the week/s ahead bring...
Regards,
Ghous.
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Well I thought that lower wick may have brought it down a bit further even tho I was thinking $ down.
The upper wick which made the pattern defective is when seen on a hanging man buying ....
Hey Bones.
Good to see you.
You gotta great kid.
Ghous.
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Thanks tac, If I do what you said, there is another PPZ worry me. Am I too conservative?
Not a lot was going against that bar...which is why James called it a "very nice pin bar"
The shape and the location was all great...
The underlying ppz/s was the only worry, and yes if you're super conservative "and new" you would probably skip that, but anybody who's been doing this stuff for quite some time now would know that the underlying ppz (which BTW was not immediately in the way) was no way a reason to give up on the setup "Given that all the other factors were so damn strong"
For your first few months you focus on perfect pin bars that have everything right abt them, as you grow older and more experienced you understand when a little "lineancy" can be provided to "certain" setups.
So a new trader would skip that altogether
And a more experienced campaigner would go for it but "manage it tight"...which his experience would have taught him well.
Regards,
Ghous.
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"but anybody who's been doing this stuff for quite some time now would know that the underlying ppz (which BTW was not immediately in the way) was no way a reason to give up on the setup "Given that all the other factors were so damn strong"
That is something I want to dig into to understand. I know you are quite experienced. Would you mind elaborate this a bit? What/Why is it "damn strong"?
kk
Right first of all I am not as experienced as many others here.
But what I can advise you to do is to let this thing come naturally to you.
I'll tell you what I did when I was new. Jarroo helped me blow up quite a few demo accounts and more importantly I blew my confidence in the method, The great man probably doesn't even know about it nor do most of you here.
I would see his charts, admire his abilities on taking less than A+ setups and how he would ride on $'s back with these mediocre PA setups...
This is what I thought..."When Jim can do it so can I"
Got myself a demo account and started thinking like "jarroo" probably would...instead of focusing on hitting a few good trades a month I started to actually look for less than A+ setups (without any initial intentions of doing so, just a detrimental "carry away") and guess what 2 months later I found myself exactly where I began...or rather a few miles behind where I started in that I had lost the confidence I had begun with...
The point I am trying to make is, the more you deviate from what your'e supposed to be doing depending on the level you're on the more time and confidence (and possibly money) you waste.
Trust me on this kk this it will come to you. Just focus on the three prime factors for now...
1) Shape
2) location
3) space
As you start pouring setups into these three moulds you'll see how with time you can set off with that "AHA" feeling while very few on the thread will even consider the setup in the A catagory.
Just Jog along your learning curve,
Because you can see your destination ahead you must not get carried away and attempt to try and run into your goal. Let the goal come to you.
I am no where near where i want to be but the "little" traveling has taught me so much I would rather be shot dead than try and speed up the learning process.
Just sayin...
PS abt your question on "Why so damn strong" I guess Peter explained it better than I could ever have...
Ghous.
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Greetings SIR! (Was wondering when I would meet a neighbor here in this thread. )
Abt my journal...
I decided to abort the activity because I was no where near the challenging consistency that the task requires. (Was pretty new to my trading system back then)
Will be starting a similar journal activity in a few month from now when I am done proving my potential to myself.
Cheers,
And drop in often sir,
Ghous.
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Oh it is a BEOB i think this was a PB but you are right it is a bearish outbreak.
There is something strange going on, at all JPY Pairs H4 (GJ, UJ, AUJ) we have a strong BEOB, i don?t know if the are good entrys????
Relax,
just take your time in sorting out the best ones, with the most confluences and those that have ample space and look great, all of them will not be unavoidable I promise.
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IMHO one of the few setups you could wait for months really.
Swing high, 142, authoritative appearance.
an A+ BEOB in my book.
Possible destinations marked...
Was that a break or what??
I actually missed the entry altogether While responding to a pm.
lol
Great bars...great places...great trades,
...
just pulled in a pending order to see if any remains of bulls can take price back to the BEOB break point before going beyond 20 pips from the beob break (after I which as per my rules I pull of my order)...God I hate to chase.
Ghous.
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Ok now i get the feeling for this thread i tried twice before but did not had the patience to go through the whole thread also people's in other threads mentioning the pin bars as well. I was looking for ghous came here and saw his chart.
actually i trade Philip's 4H macd and use those Boxes for support/resistance but now fell more good about them.
That man runs one heck of a system, I've seen you there Bro,
Just stay around, I would advise you to at least go through the first 100 pages or so if not the whole thread to get a fair idea of what we do and how, then just stay on the current pages to get an understanding of how different setups are dealt with and they can differ from person to person.
I guess this will soon have to be the advice to all newbies...this thread's running out of hands of newbies fast!
Ghous.
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But he did left the thread some months ago. I will try get around but have got developed feel for 4h MACD even i traded it on 1h successfully and i am about to go live in few days so i can't change the "whole thing".
Thank's.
I'll be off now since light is about to "GO".
That's what great abt adopting J16 ways...
You never ever need to change your system,
J16 can help you add a catalyst to the success rate that's all. i.e adding PA teachings to any system can be superbly beneficial, Since I know Nel's system I can tell you this stuff here could help you put the icing on the cake,
You must already be familiar with side to side supp/res levels and the basic workings of price movement, Phillip did a great job explaining that on his thread...
Quote:
I'll be off now since light is about to "GO"
Lol! Tht's got to be my biggest worry when taking trades specially intraday trades...lol
third world country stuff bro, I am pretty used to it.
Ghous.
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Thanks Ghous, i think the same.
Do you close your short and go long now on the UC? For me there?s a nice PB at 1.1000 with a lot of space at the left side and a divergence to the MACD.
I have my SL at 1140 and I'll leave it there, the buob is headed straight into it so it might not even make it through the resistance around this level...
No plans of going long...12 midnight here I'll skip it...
Ghous.
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Another BEOB knocking on the 84 level... Just closed. Would allow for much smaller stop if that is what you're in to...but why did it bounce off 84 again
they along with some $ crosses are struggling for momentum...still...
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Hmmmmp IB
1- IB would break at 1.6412 and my target is 1.6435
2- I actually would like to trade against the IB rather than trading brake.
there is no for and against with an IB Nasir,
You can play it either ways long or short.
and Both ways we give special importance to the break, so for a lon like in your case your order (pending) should have been 5 pips (it's the hourly chart) from the high of the Ib.
(for a short your sell pending order should have rested 5 pips below the low of the IB)
What else can I say...waiting for the break of a PA bar setup is probably the most important aspect of trading successfully with this method.
Maybe you just used the IB as an additional confirmation to your 4H Nel's macd signal in which case the trade is probably ok then...but then it won't be a J16 trade though.
Ghous.
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But i think i reacted also take a look at this chart.
1- 50% retracment
2- 89 SMA
3- Trendline.
No cheating allowed.
lol
Your fibs and trend lines need to be re drawn correctly after which they won't give you this "false confluence"
For a fib ret, you need to target a major swing high and a low.
The high was valid the low you used was not, the low you used was not a major, the one before it was and precisely where your fibs should have started.
Secondly for a valid trendline, price must not penetrate the trendline in a way that it closes beyond the trend line and carry on from there...
One of the trend lines you say come into confluence was invalidated twice after which it must loose all it's worth. (refer to the chart below)
Cheers.
Ghous.
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Last edited by ghous, Jul 22, 2009 6:20am
Reason: made an error on the chart...fixed it.
I'm looking at these carefully. The shape of the pin of Gbp Usd is attractive, but location maybe is not so good, or not? Instead, i like more the UsdChf BUOB because it is forming at an important PPZ: if it closes above 1.07 i think i'll go long at the break of the bar (ranging market in the last days on this pair).
Not throwing your ideas aside Bakko but both have their mediocrities obvious.
Gu's a typical case of "conflicting signals" note that the bar before your bearish pin bar is a good looking bullish pin bar.
Confluences and all that are valid but when I see such a scenario I am straight away inclined towards the "skip it" kind of a mood. Price then has to do something really special like break in the right direction very quickly etc. to get me interested.
Look at it like this. The pin bar Urchman took was a good bullish Pin bar, which meant the bulls were in power but what then, price hits a ppz and gives a bearish pin bar, so the bears are in power...
For me it's that..."Uh it's the bulls, err...no wait..look at that pin it's the bears...short short short, uh damn silly me...what am I thinking I'll hold my long, till the bearish pb breaks, or..."
In short...when in doubt stay out.
If you still plan to play it watch for a quick break and you'll need an eagle's eye on the bullish pin bar low.
*****-----*****
Usd/cad is another avg setup,
The location's fine and the round numbers all come in...
But worries me more than anything else is the ppz near 1.072. This might be very much tradable If the BUOB can hit the ppz and close beyond it with authority.
In these "tight" situations I always give a lot of importance to the close which has to be near it's high/low signaling the "current mood of price" to at least trouble the ppz in which case a potential trade has a slightly higher probability of winning.
All the best Bro.
EDIT: the BUOb closed more like an indescision bar, no trade had I been considering it.
Ghous.
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Very nice explanation Ghous but one more thing, if you were in the trade or any other trade that has good looking PB and the next bar turned out to be an opposite PB, what would you do? I guess explaining...
On this particular scenario Yes I would have booked some off the yellow ppz and moved my stop to BE in which case my trade would never have seen the bearish pin bar but...
if you ignore the yellow ppz I would definitely have hung on, because then the bearish pb wouldn't have been off anything really and the best thing would be to hang on and at least wait for the bearish Pb to break,
So Arcus is right in what he assumed I would do.
Ghous.
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Anyone in/still in the BEOB trade on the EURUSD from yesterday (1 PM EST)?
It broke by just enough to trigger and has since basically retraced and stayed in the bottom half o the BEOB.
I did see the highs at 1.4150 level, and it has come down to touch 1.4155, but I felt for this trade to be worth while, it should break through this area strongly.
So far, it has been flat, and I am sticking to my guns on it.
Just curious if anyone else took the trade and if they were still in it.
EDIT *****
On the same time frame now a BUOB has formed....
It broke so hard I actually missed the entry at first and now...lol
The plan was to locate a good point for an SL which would be less than 3 figures. (100+ pip SL if i went the conventional way)
The idea has a catch which often goes unnoticed...you tend to get stopped out more often than when you deal with the conventional stop method.
For this particular trade the first thing that struck me was the 1.42 level and prior support evident from bar lows, at 12 midnight, I tucked the SL 25 pips above 1.42 and left for sleep,
Looks like it worked out well, but times when it doesn't are clear in my head. Trading is an art and not an exact science. You gotta find something that works for you "most" of the times.
Hang on in there Unlv,
If you take a loss on this one, it would be a genuine one IMHO. Look at it like money that belonged to the market, and you have no other way but to hand that back...like a trading tax or something
Anyways...
It's amazing how PA holds true no matter what! PA after beob bounced off 1.416 a minor ppz, we weren't expecting it to hold all that well is what took us by surprise...see the "tax" thing here Unlv.
You're doing good and you know it, just don't let these "out of the box" times set you off.
Ghous.
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i did it all by myself and based on my own analysis which helped me to arrive at the thought of I don't want to "cheat" and just use others analysis. rather i would like to do my analysis,...
IMHO the winning approach,
This is what I would recommend to every newbie.
make sure you've done your mt4/platform homework on analyzing the pairs first up before you long on to the FF J16 thread. You could be a bit lenient in that you could edit your decisions/thoughts after you read diff view points here by different traders which you probably over looked or gave less attention to...and then as times passes you'll realize there are fewer times you have to change your thoughts to synchronize with the others at the thread (either because you're already in the same boat as most here or you're confident enough to believe in what you think is going to happen and no Mike or James or Jarroo can influence that)
putting up the J16 thread and reading all the views on it first and then proceeding to your mt4 to take a trade just because Jarroo is doing the same even when you agree on the validity of the trade can have detrimental effects on your long term success.
Thanks for bringing it up John and allowing others to learn...
Regards,
Ghous.
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Putting J16ch thread in commercial bin is a 'low blow' on FF part.
It took me some time to find it again. I can't even see new j16 posts under 'Active Threads' .
Maybe it's just me...
Oh well, who cares, it will be new traders who will miss out.
Word 'commercial' was always big turn off for us.
Hope FF reconsiders.
happy trading.
R
Lol,
The topic's under a heavy debate.
We can only sit back and hope all turns out well...
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hahahahaha, well me too was just watching the 8hr chart(theres also a buob on the 8hr) as well to try and clean up the mess to the left....lol
lets see how she plays out
( SL at BE, cannot let these come back and hurt me in any way)
Ghous.
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As i am looking at your chart i can see MACD if you are using it in any way why dont you try it like this. I am not luring you towards Indicators but when you will enter the trade you will have more peace of mind having taken a look.
I would not question the approach Nasir,
There are a lot more things that do work besides Nel's 4H macd, how abt adding them too? Or rather why should I exclude them?
Because changing a winning combination is more stupid than it sounds...
You might be using it as an additional source of confluence if you're comfortable with it but I along with several others here feel very strongly abt keeping it as simple as possible...
The less I go into additional tools besides PA and horizontal supp/res levels the better it get's for me...
Aqain not a hard and fast rule but something which works for me and may not do so for somebody else...and I am saying this because I have discovered myself over the years which is probably the best favor I ever did for myself.
All the best bro,
Ghous.
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I expected that but it cleared some points also, thanks.
i got mixed up in two absolutely different system's.
And that can happen when you try to complicate things a little too much.
I would suggest you to extract the basics out of this thread and trade mainly the Phillip's system as I see you've spent some time with it.
Or if you really think it's worth it you could perhaps just use the 4h macd and some other elements from Nel's 4h system and find a way to implement them to a strategy based on the J16 stuff,
You cannot run both systems at full volume simultaneously...because both are pretty diff to each other.(the entries the technique everything) I say this because I've traded the 4h macd for a few months so I know...
Regards,
Ghous.
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james16,
No need to take it that far, Sir.
There are ways to get around this issue..
Hopefully u will reconsider.
Let's maintain our stance & uphold what is right.
Agreed,
These are tough times sure and they will pass...
I was shocked to read this from Jim:
Quote:
IM SORRY ITS TIME.
if this is the beginning of the end for me here then so be it.
its been a great 5 year ride.
i love all of you and yes there are tears coming down my cheeks.
Common Jim, we're all here, the public thread is still the heart and it will have to live on, exactly like right now for the next few hundred years at least...
You're not alone battling this and do please sink this statement deep into your core...
"YOU'RE NOT ALONE!"
I promise I'll quit trading if anything happens to this thread,
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If you taught me to trade, gave me the methodology and vocabulary, provided me a place to learn, and then gave me senior status to build your credibility,
How would you feel if I started a service and charged to teach what I learned from you?
That is the bottom line.
I see,
Thnx STO...
The day he started his thread it was evident that it was going to lead to the point were it is right now...which makes me feel why was he allowed a new thread of his own in the first place with stuff almost the same as taught here...
I agree it's unfair,
What then Jim?
just don't say anything abt leaving will ya,
A heart attack at 19 is not how and where I want to leave this world. lol
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I have something to say about what I have learned from this group/thread, although I'm not the very diligent of people here that can concentrate fully on what they're doing and what they love, and what they believe is the true path to achieve their dreams, I realize I'm not special in any way but this place has became the place I go to when I feel I don't have anywhere else to go, every time I got into a big problem, a depression, I can just see and read the posts and even with my poorly written english, replied to some and have received further...
It's these strange bonds that ensure the longevity of the thread.
Thanks you Marcel for bringing it up. Your words seem to come straight from your heart...
Ghous.
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Hi everyone... I don't really understand a lot (about the politics etc) but thought that it might be the moment for a long time lurker to pop up to offer a huge vote of thanks to Jim, mike etc etc and it never fails to amaze me that you guys are still here helping and guiding!
nice one
Welcome Salisa,
Let's get rid the reluctance and start posting more shall we?
Ghous.
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Although I'm not a great one for moving to BE either, I feel that you should be looking at the impact that partial profit taking may be having on your bottom line. If you're looking at this stuff correctly then you should have a clear...
I've heard that before but taking partial profit has one major use for me,
For my avg setups at the first res/supp I like to take half off and move the SL for the remaining half in to the red so I end up BE at worst.
For example, If I go with 2 lots on Eu and take 1 off at +50 I can leave the other half at -50 so as to give the other half more space...
This can work well with the less then A+ setups and is great with my touch trades.
Ghous.
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I'm with you on this one - we shall see how she plays out though...
interested to see if it does go long - DBLHC at previous daily support - thats the trigger - classic J16 as far as I can see.
The twisted part of me would like to see it go short (I'm not triggered at the moment anyway) as I can't see any PA to suggest it will and I always reckon you learn more from your mistakes than your wins (life in general not just trading)
Can anyone explain why it might short? - Just keen to know what is giving folks that feel and as a newbie...
Quote:
interested to see if it does go long - DBLHC at previous daily support - thats the trigger - classic J16 as far as I can see.
As far as bar shape is concerned sure is...
But again that's probably less important than the fact that it occurred during a consolidating period, with one heck of a spatial concern, but was probably very much tradable as I see it bouncing off the "range floor".
Anyways an order should never have been triggered as the high never broke...one of those setups which could turn out to be interesting and fruitful if they play out, other times when they don't give you a good hard break you move on...
Quote:
Can anyone explain why it might short? - Just keen to know what is giving folks that feel and as a newbie here I'm still very much at the bottom of the learning curve!
Overall trend's down...
Ghous.
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Swing low, (long term support zone) bullish divergence, lot's of space.
The hard and fast break was impressive, and went along for a good 30 pips. One thing I know is that on the 4H I should not have in any way allowed this to come back and hurt me,
Perhaps it was the lack of any major hindrances till 1.56 which made me ease down a bit.
Posting it up as a lesson for myself and all...RULES HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED!
Regards,
Ghous.
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One of the amazing things about the material is you can profit in a consolidating market. For me this is a good setup, IF it breaks it will go to the top of the range. If not then it may be played as a 2 bar low.
A 2 bar low probably yes, but as is often true in a consolidating market there are spatial concerns down south too...
Look at 1.06 for a ppz on the weekly, I would be very very cautious of going short until we can safely see through 1.06, even if that means skipping the TBL altogether...
I would then rather be happy with a pullback short trade to the 1.06 off a lower time frame.
Ghous.
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ghous is this an ipb u wld consider playing or is it more an indecision bar
seriously hope this tension doesnt spill into the upcoming week
cheers
Hey Squeezy, that would be an indecision bar. But it might be playable given the confluences you outlined...way below A+ though
I was rather looking at a similiar bar but which comes along with a better confluence package. It's the Eur/Cad daily chart.
50 fib,
Long term support (this is where I exited my "2 doji" short trade")
macd divergence.
365 ema (weekly)
possible double bottom (second touch trade candidate)
with the over all weekly trend
Ghous.
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As the FNG to this thread I was hoping to put the past months' reading into action on a demo trade. I would really appreciate any input anyone can afford.
Here are the details:
1. the iffy pin bar 2 bars b4 the 2 bar reversal was only interesting at best and not acted upon. While I know that's it's value as a PB no longer existed after the 1st bar of the 2 bar reversal closed, I was thinking it still and some underlying sentiment after the 2nd bar in the 2BR closed
2. The 2BR was as at swing high and finished at my PPZ.
3. bearish divergence
4....
I am all confused. lol
Are you talking abt the 2 bar pin bar or the pin bar before that?
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It would be the two bar Pin or aka the 2 bar reversal circled in white.
Boy, reading #1 is like verbal A.D.D/ sorry for the confusion
Ah I see...
Your ppz is all good, but you missed a very important point.
the Pin bar never broke.
At least for the first few months with this technique of merging bars it's recommended that you use the period converter posted by Jarroo in one of his posts.
Below is my Chf/Jpy 8H chart on Fxpro.
Not the best of pin bars anyways evident from the failed attempt of price to try and break through 88.
The divergence and the low of the bar however suggests it might have been a good play had the pin bar given us a quick hard break in which case the 88 level would probably have worked as resistance...
But we're smart enough to act only upon what we see and not what we anticipate right?
Ghous.
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I live in Raleigh, NC. People move here from all over the world because of the climate and job market. People visit here on business or for pleasure - and they play golf here. North Carolina is a kind of Mecca for golfers, we have several world class courses here that the public can play....
Loved the fact you shared your experience with these great guys and thoughts with us.
Truly inspirational,
Thanks STO,
Ghous.
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Your ppz is all good, but you missed a very important point.
the Pin bar never broke.
At least for the first few months with this technique of merging bars it's recommended that you use the period converter posted by Jarroo in one of his posts.
Below is my Chf/Jpy 8H chart on Fxpro.
Not the best of pin bars anyways evident from the failed attempt of price to try and break through 88.
The divergence and the low of the bar however suggests it might have been a good play had the pin bar given us a quick hard break in which case...
A couple of other pairs on my watch list.
Gj's almost on the same boat as Uj
Eur/Gbp impresses me with that "dragging pull back" as price reluctantly tested the 8700 level. The bulls literally just panted along the entire pull back...points towards something
Ghous.
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Such a big CT trade, sort of scary. I personally would be to scared to play that, would want a better bar, or double bottom, or something like that. Could still be a very profitable play, no idea, just would prefer personally to wait for something else.
The best part abt the IB was that it probably was the best place you could "fine tune" an entry to catch the continuation of the overall weekly trend.
But yeah I agree it wasn't the "safest" of trades because of the falling knife, but then again a bit aggressive is how I like it....just me...
(it's still on my watch list...)
Ghous.
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What is the entry point for this kind of trades? Is it the second bar low or the third bar low?
Is this kind of PA less used here that other kinds of PA?
Thanks,
kk
Quote:
What is the entry point for this kind of trades?
5-10 pips below the 2/3/4 lows (below the longest of the lows if the lows aren't exactly matching)
Quote:
Is this kind of PA less used here that other kinds of PA?
Yes because this particular bar pattern just like we want it is extremely rare. On top of that it is less reliable than some of the other PA setups like outside bars and pin bars so those who play it need to be very very picky,
Regards,
Ghous.
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Your Panting Bull..nice name by the way....did you make that up or is that the real saying?....I was just wondering would that actually have more chance of going up as usually when you get the instrumeent coiling up like that is ready to explode out or are you more inclined to short because of all the resistence above?
thanks for this..
Adrian
Hi Adrian,
I called it what I did simply because I wanted the phrase to delineate the true meaning...
I don't know and don't care what it is called if at all it does have a name, crows sisters brothers soldiers etc etc...all that is primarily BS.
What I tried to emphasize was that a good understanding of PA goes beyond a trio of PA bars that you look to trade off good locations.period.
It's the basic understanding of current market sentiments long term and short term and how they get "priced in" in the bars that you see not necessarily only in the form of outside/inside and pin bars.
The entire scenario changes the day you stop looking at all this like textbook stuff. Memorizing diff setups, going into their proper names, exact definitions all make you approach trading as an "academic" thing which it absolutely is not.
Yes you could memorize and drill it into your head when you gotta go for a pin bar, but the true essence of PA trading lies in understanding the obvious market moves and how and why they occur...you start with investigating why James wants us to use an outside bar as a trigger to a trade, don't ask anybody, don't read any book, just let your brain do the work. A couple of months and you're on your way to a profound and meaningful understanding of PA bars....what you're aiming for by doing this is to eradicate the "textbook" stuff and approach your charts with simple yet effective common sense backed with some experience. When you find yourself in such a situation it's amazing how these "names" and "definitions" loose their import for you.
What I saw on the Eur/Gbp was nothing martian.
I see a downtrend with lot's of BEBs (Bearish Bars) defining a major downturn/reversal, which busts a decent ppz. (check)
Price stops and the bulls want a piece of the cake. It pulls back but surely not how the bulls might have wanted to dominate it. (no BUBs) check.
Price trips and topples and the bulls in the midst of a deadly fight find themselves testing the 8700 level. check
We know from knowledge that prior support can offer resistance and vice versa. check.
I am not sure what that I said above was new? The name that I gave to it maybe..."panting bulls"...who cares...what we know and are proud off is that we do know what price is willing to do.
*****-----*****
Adrian your questions made me feel like you were trying to get it drilled into your head somehow and that next time you see something like this you would say...
"Ah! right. Ghous did mention that panting bulls price pattern before. And what did he want me to do? Ah right, yeah short it fine..."
...Because realistically you would never have asked me to consider it as a short or long opportunity if you had wandered beyond the name I gave it and tried to understand the reasoning which makes it look attractive to me.
God knows if it has a name or not and if it's a price pattern or not...bottom line is we don't even need this info, because we look beyond thick books and definitions prescribed by traders into what price actually is willing to do.
When I see lot's of tiny indecision bars during a pull back in a established trend poking at a well defined ppz I don't need a book of "Important price patterns" to tell me what to do next.
the entire rant is not specifically meant to target Adrian, I just used his post to strike upon a common mistake...
Ghous.
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I totally agree with this, don't get to caught up in the rules of the bar i.e. ive seen people not taken a perfect setup because a bar didn't fit the rules exactly. If the bar had closed an hour later then it would have, and as expected price reversed. I think learning to see 1 bars or 1 bar plus a bit of the next bar, or 2-3-4 session bars in your head will really help you spot more setups.
Don't take me wrong,
Pin bars are pin bars and a bar that does not close as a pin bar is NOT a pin bar, and trading it would then be something beyond J16.
Even when a newbie does wish to go that far he is probably far from being well equipped to deal with it...SIMPLE STRAIGHT FACT.
In my post above I mentioned a word which I fear will be overlooked.
it was...EXPERIENCE
UNTIL THE TIME YOU CAN PROVE TO BE CONSISTENT ENOUGH WITH THE BASIC J16 STUFF AS OUTLINED IN THE FIRST 100 PAGES OR SO...THERE IS NO POINT IN DIGGING WHILE YOU'RE ALREADY TRAPPED IN A HOLE.
This is something I believe needs to be drilled in...surely!
Ghous.
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I used to look at hindsight trades and say "wow, if I had ridden that all the way I would have made 9 times my return". But what I want to do here is take a look at a hindsight chart and walk you through the process as it unfolds.
First thing to identify: where is it likely to have trouble?
Jim once said in a webinar that you can drive yourself mad by looking at every tiny area that price might reverse. Separating the major from the minor areas is critical.
1) First minor zone is marked in sea green. See how there are bar highs...
good work Aaron,
Amazing how all the pieces of the Jigsaw come together when you're good with the "Base" of the method.
Sound PPZ understanding is very important. As important as Aaron described it, better than most could have.
Ghous.
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I passed on the USDCHF trade because I believed it was moving back into too much traffic and would cause problems.
Did you notice this Ghous? Am I being too picky? Is this just part of the weighted risk?
Nothing wrong abt being picky specially when you're on a lower time frame.
Your "traffic" concern was very much valid,
This was NOT in any way one of the 3-4 setups you want over the month via a super conservative approach.
Importantly you must know yourself.
If you're a trader more like Jim and Mike you gotta just watch such PA from the side lines and enjoy,
If you're a jarroo you would go for it and..."manage it tight"
If you're a Razcekfx you would have longed the pin right off the end of the nose and be happy with it.
And then you could also be something like Josh who likes to hold on to his swing setups for eternity.
It all comes down to the fact that we here are discussing of a method, something like hot pudding. You will need your own molds to get it to adopt a shape you personally might like more than somebody else.
I along with a few others took the Usd/chf "in traffic" pin bar because we have higher risk appetites.
Yes on this occasion it seems like we stood out above somebody with a pick mentality but again aiming for more profits = higher probability of a loss
Only a few days a back I posted an Ib setup where I was trying to catch a falling knife, although with some confluence the setup was highly aggressive and some further MM leeway led me to a loss and I was absolutely fine with that.
There's no one way to trade this stuff, your system, personal preference, and individual psychology decide how you would implement J16 to your trading.
Happy trading Unlv
Ghous.
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I know you are you happy with your trade results from this 7/23/09 Usd/Jpy PB (blue box) and well you should be. Very nice.
But letting trades run, I believe, is a result that we all work on fullfilling. Many of my largest gains were the result of moving to break even then hiding under the next strong, confluenced areas. These have been with the 2nd half position or even less the half position. ( I do this with many of my trades, even the A+ one, I still learning to let the whole position run on a strong move, Thanks Mike...
That guy's serious abt making it happen,
His attitude goes even beyond his good results.
Smart chap decided to back off the thread for a while so he can concentrate on mastering the stuff.
Take that for dedication.
I wonder if James can puff his chest anymore can he?
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Thanks Ghous, I am simply trying to master this stuff on demo, I need to be focused 100%. I love this thread, however I feel if I try and keep up with every post I will spend less time on charts etc.
.
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I have been following this thread for some time (Jacko's as well) meanwhile trading as a FX prop in an investment company. Big advantage is that I don't need to try it on demo, but directly test all with real money, so psychological part is always involved in any trade. After all that years trading is nice to find a feeling that PA is what makes my trading successful even if I fight with same "enemies" inside, as you are. Hopefully, I will contribute with some own examples and honestly I look forward to learn more from others as well.
Happy...
Hi Gio,
welcome to the thread.
Here's something for our new friend.
Ghous.
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Hey guys. I'm in the very early stages of trying to understand Rac's posts. For those that have better understanding... wondered if this might be a zone he'd be watching.
I'm not sure I'll get a reply from him, since he's not posting for a bit.
BTW, I'm not looking to trade any of these touch entries. Just thought it might help me learn trendlines to better understand his type of trading too...
Thanks,
Josh
Very few of us could help you with that, Rac's crystal ball is only one and he posses it.
I practice blind trades myself, but I don't think I come anywhere near him in style, experience etc etc
But I agree with Jig, Jeff could assist you at best. right now he's off the deck for a while so you're in with a good chance.
Ghous.
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Pro: top of range 8h pin bouncing off a decent resistance level - which is also the 50 retrace for the aussies huge decline last year (aka the 'joel cant afford to go to new york anymore' decline.. isnt shown on this chart, and im too lazy to reattach
con: goes straight into a strong PPZ
variance: wall st about to open which could cause the aussie to act a fool.
I will probably play a break of 78 and hold down to the PPZ and then watch it like a hawk. Or a kookaburra, as the case may...
Good one Joel,
Long nose, swing high, divergence,
I have my ppz level just abt where the 8H pin bar closed. Could be a fair play if it breaks quick.
Ghous.
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Jduester,
apart from what Jigsaw & ghous have said, u can try & PM ikki. i believe he has made several PM's with rac in the past.
alternatively, PM rac directly as your question may/may not involve raczekfx's undisclosed proprietary system/method & other "voodoo".
I intend to frequent-PM him in the near future as i idolize him too.
LONG LIVE rac/Mark
***---***
...ps how could I forget ikki.
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If you or Peter could explain this VSA to us, that would be great...I'm unfamiliar with this....
Also, Giotto, please explain the tick volume in more detail...sounds very interesting....I have the ability to make tick charts with my trading software, but I'm unsure of it's importance....I think your insights on this could really enlighten the rest of us...
FXOpen is GMT + 3 right (like FxPro, liteForex/SIG, FXDD, etc)? GMT + 2 MT4 brokers (XTB, Alpari, Mig, Broco etc) also showed an almost similar PA setup.
Nice for u to post an eur$ chart. i was about to mention it earlier (along with gbp$ H4) but flinched as i was worried jarroo would come out & ask for a chart again. (i was busy reading posts, so i was not ready to post charts today) lol
lol yeah Fxopen is gmt+3 i guess, cuz it's in line with fxpro...
Quote:
Originally Posted by batesmotel
Right, ok, sorry...thanks for info....GregB
No worries Greg, all of us can get carried away at times.
happy trading.
Ghous.
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Well, if you have no charts it is difficult to understand what you are saying because every post you contradict yourself. I know you are trying to help, but I just cannot communicate with you.
Anyways, I really don't want to continue the conversation with you, I know what I did and my original post was direct to Ghous anyways...
Take care.
Which one LVG?
I might have missed it sorry...
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LOL... what? that's what i get for being "MR. helpful"
well, u were sort of cranky in this post, but to be honest i expected a little more magnanimous & favorable response from u, Sir. (only because i tried to "help" as not all members here, like Ghous, are expectedly online most of the time ; Ghous needs to rest too, u know)
I did not find any part of my post contradictory; BUT, granted, i may have rambled
ghous posted charts earlier here...
Hey Chaos easy buddy,
I guess LVG just misconstrued you or something...you're both quite friendly and helpful out here, and you both know it too.
Cheers
Ghous.
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It would have been very nice if had closed where we wanted.... BUT.
It didn't....
Some wise words there Jeff,
One of the best advices that can ever be given to newbies...still remember the time when I got off to a flying start with a couple of touch trades on my demo account (trades that rac took at the same places for the same reasons..IMAGINE!) and off I went trying to master the stuff on my live account.
Jeff's laugh at this in a pm still haunts me whenever I try to do something stupid.
Hear Hear ppl! the man's often battling strong winds and waves and swimming with sharks but when he's on his computer he's a helpful little gem.
Ghous.
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ghous,
Thanks, absolutely no worries on my end. I'm always cool. & i can always handle tough/ungracious/less cordial forum members.
I'm from Asia, i offered him a "late-night/midnight snack" (was very late, past 3AM to be exact, i was very sleepy, still i went out of my way to reply to him; i even praised him & patted his back for a profitable trade) then i get his last post in my "breakfast plate". in short, a "good karma/pay it forward" post got a ungracious post/reply in return.
And we love you for that.
And BTW don't take LVG so hard here lol. He (or she maybe) is a good guy and an oldie at this thread, like I said it must have been a misunderstanding or something...
anyways forget it.
Ghous.
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Thanks for the kind words, & yes I still laugh at that pm you sent me, cause it reminded me of me.... I have it saved by the way...
BUT to let you know i'm off again on thursday... bloody mates.. keep paying good money to sail their boats for them.. HA.. this is only 1 day though. from ft lauderdale to stuart florida. be back for asia sesiion. i hope....
Thursday's like tomorrow man,
can't the voyage wait a bit?
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I have this very nice H1 pinbar failed. It pierces a major S/R. Any comment?
Hi Kk007,
Chaos made some valid points,
Abt the Usd/Chf...
Here's what I think:
Why do you think James wants you to stick to higher time frames first?
Why do you think Ryan is comfortable with having 15 pips 20 pip take profit levels when he could hold on to some of those "with the trend" 5 min setups for hundreds of pips.
Yes the pin bars on 1H still do what they are known for doing on the higher time frames but there is a BIG difference,
Notice how the same move on daily could have yielded some 40-50 points on a normal pair and some 100 pips or so on Gj perhaps,
If this exact setup had occurred on daily and you entered exactly where you did and the move lasted exactly as long as in the 1H case, should you have seen a 50-100 pip gain become a looser? If you know J16 stuff well you would not
On the 1H the move was abt 15 pips, and you're looking at it as a looser only because you're far from understanding the psychology of lower time frame trading.
There is more to lower time frame trading than just tackling with noise and making quick decisions. Which is why for PA traders it is best to hang around the highers for as long as they master them at least, before venturing into the more turbulent 1H setups.
Ask Ryan, and he'll tell you the trade was a winner!
Usd/Chf gave off a good pin and it did what it should have...the tricky part here was to understand that 15 pips is a great win for a 1H trader. Something a trader on daily will take some time to understand...
The Eur/Usd failed Pin bar setup was probably a genuine looser and Chaos made some great points abt why it was a mdeiocre setup.
And then again as jig said shit happens.
Trading the lower time frames even with the same tools can be quite different than trading the higher time frames and require loads and loads and LOADS of practice.
Ghous.
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Thanks for reply again.
Do you think the down trend is strong, as shown on the chart?
If I have to consider PPZ of that strength (in relation to the length of the pinbar) as a stop, I would have to have profit target of very small each time. This will make my trading risk very high, and perhaps it may be better to have an occasional failed pinbar instead. I can see the failure rate of a pinbar of such quality is low.
sorry it is eur/usd.
cheers,
kk
yes KK,
personally I would have liked it to kiss 1.419, but it didn't which is fine, because again we are not expecting these to work out just like we want them to 100% of the times.
Moving on...is what I would be doing if I were you.
Ghous.
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ghous,
are u willing to let your trade breathe & go sub-1.40? where are u hiding your stops?
it may have extra gas to reach 1.38 - 1.3870: massive bear divergence on xxx/$ majors finally unwinding + USDX (Dollar index) finally rebounding from lows.
i'm , but im not in this though. (i'll try to sneak in with a 'late' entry if opportunity presents itself; thank God, i don't chase trades anymore)
like my idol [url="http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2891751&postcount=38 295"]recently...
lol sure.
I usually hide my stops behind pull backs and trail them along manually as the trend progresses and pull backs present themselves.
BTW Eu did present an opp on the daily to go short later after the 4H pin bar...(very nearly a good looking DBHLC)
Ghous.
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I have a way to calculate cross timeframe target for the same trading method.
If you use the method to trade D1 and on average you have a target of 100 pip, what would you expect if you trade H1 or M5 with exactly the same methods.
Since there is 24 hours a day, for a D1 chart the pip volatility is about sqrt(24) times that on a H1 chart. So, you could expect a target of about 100/sqrt(24) i.e. ~ 20 pip
If you go down to a M5 chart, the target...
I thought I was good at math, and you pricked the hallucination Kk
I seriously need to take my math classes more gravity.
Not sure how you arrived at the 100 pip on daily - 20 pip on 1H thing, but I was pointing out at something obvious without deriving it from a mathematical aspect.
Ghous.
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There are so many possible PPZ obstacles in the middle. How did you break them all???
Also, the pinbar you used, also have the nose outside the left eye a bit.. haha!
How did you make them allow you taking profit???
haha... you must teach me all these..
Simple,
By devising a plan and sticking to it.
A nice pin bar (maybe not by the pip but if you know this stuff well you would know it was tradable) which was headed into a traffic zone with lot's of minor ppzs...
Took some profit earlier on and moved my SL quickly to BE when the trade was at +35, leaving price to do what it wants in a space which would not allow it to hurt me in anyway.
Another day price would have bounced off any of those red lines you mentioned Kk and would have got me out, but it's sweet to have days when price busts through a traffic zone with authority and never looks back.
Sometimes you just need to let price do what it wants to in a strong escape proof caging with MM wiring....
....because again entry and exit can never play a role as important as your money management and individual psychology lining up with your personal inclinations.
Ghous.
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Eur/Gbp impresses me with that "dragging pull back" as price reluctantly tested the 8700 level. The bulls literally just panted along the entire pull back...points towards something
Ghous.
I am kicking myself for getting out prematurely, I was done for the month when this trade opp came about and although no initial plans of doing so I happened to trail the SL far too tight...
Still managed some 90 good pips bonus on this one. the entry trigger was all that I said in the quoted post and the actual entry was taken on the close of the doji from the previous week. (somewhat a blind trade)
PA is still the king and goes beyond well beyond a few bars and their looks.
Ghous.
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All of what Bundy said, EDIT: and what Jarroo said....
+
The daily isn't looking too neat for a long either.
When I look at it on my chart I see bears rushing past the 50 fib which has worked well as a horizontal ppz , and what then? Nothing martian for anybody who understands the role of ppzs in a market and the reactions they bring about....A typical, breakout restest scenario
(can't bother longing a bearish breakout )
Notice how Friday's daily bar closed. A high that touches the 50 fib but fails to keep price near or at it. A BIG warning sign for me...because the further price moves from a high/low within a price bar the better is that high/low equipped to provide res/supp
To tell you more abt it this is very nearly a good touch trade (short) setup for me if price can look to kiss/touch Friday's bar high early on Monday...
Ghous.
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It looks like an IPB that could show a strong down move. I would have to ask ghous about that one.
Or that big Ole PB may break upward to the 165.00 which is a strong PPZ level near the 50% retrace. Hard to say.
Should be fun to watch.
Very hard indeed to say anything,
What I like the IPB's to do is to give me clear indications of a halt/reversal. After the huge push down the bar being at somewhat a decent pull back does seem to be an IPB, however I would have liked it somewhere around 154 to be honest...
Won't trade it bit should be fun to watch,
Ghous.
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hello guys
sup jarroo, ghous and everyone else
just wanted to pitch in on the eurcadwkly pin
i like to keep my charts clean with nothing (no lines, emas etc) until i see pa , then i start looking for trouble areas & also put emas, fibs for confluence
on the 4hr chart , there was a small bullish pin which i diddnt like, so i didnt buy...but when i saw the buob, i entered on the break(i liked the divergence too on the 4hr)....which im still holding now at be
my main question now is this,....for someone who works mainly with the tf where he finds...
yeah you're right abt the singular time frame stuff Squeezy, I was just pointing out at something I have been looking over the weekend, i.e the touch trade opportunity and saw this guy's post talking abt long so thought I needed to pool in.
Just as a further confirmation, here's why if a trade is taken off the weekly pin bar (as per J16 rules) regardless of what's happening on any lower time frame it has little to worry...
The pin bar break would have to occur at a point on my daily chart which is above my yellow ppz in which case a long might not be a such a bad idea, my post was refrring to fair enough possibility of the weekly pin bar never breaking due to the fact that price has found it's way below a distinct ppz and is now merely resteting it.
The weekly pin bar if it breaks does have some serious potential,
Ghous.
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Thanks ghous. I thought you would have liked it at the 163.00ish level near those highs (blue). I guess I better reread more of your IPB posts.
But your right, it will be fun to watch,
Jim
Your blue area would also have been an interesting area for the IPB, I referred to the 154 as it marked a major reversal earlier and was a better "zone" for an IPb to be in...at the moment it seems to be hanging nowhere
here's a chart of how I would have liked it, worked hard on it
Ghous.
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yeah, i see wat u mean ghous
if i were to look at entering the weekly eurcad pin from maybe from my 4hr tf, i would set my buy stop above my 1.5487 ppz but im goin to treat it as a weekly trade & set 10pips above the pin for a break
quick question, when setting ur entry,stop loss & take profit, do you put into consideration the spread( do u add the spread to it) or do you just set 10pips above/below the pa setup....
I don't involve the spread in my entry, but in my SLs and Tps I do include them.
So for example on a pair with a 10 pip spread I want to book my tp at 1.8 I'd place my TP order at 1.7990, same stuff for the SL...
If I plan to have my SL at 1.7 my Stop loss order on the same pair same position would be 1.7010.
Ghous.
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hey guys it is a slow saturday so i thought i would post a picture of my motivation
His name is John Michael. I was thinking I have aprox 18 years to get good at this stuff so when he goes to college but he is already almost 25 pounds so i'm thinking i better get on the ball if i want to be able to afford grocerys lol!!!
guys/gals have a great weekend, john
Lol!
Great Kid Johny
Love that mischievous looks on him.
We hope to see him on the thread soon.
Ghous.
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Hi J16 people!
I read some interesting posts about GbpJpy IPB, and other setups..
I personally like the weekly pin on CadChf (this pair was on my radar in the past weeks). But i would also pay attention to the IPB on EurUsd, weekly: attached below there is the chart.
I am looking at the Euro IPB myself...
If 1.4 can give way 1.38 isn't improbable ...
Ghous.
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hey verno,
im not ghous but just wanted to pitch in, i believe ghous enters on the close and places his stop loss just above the previous bars high when playing a short. ( or rather,above the highest bar's high)
1st target is the low of the ipb....
hope i got that ghous???
cheers
You nailed it well squeezy,
Usually my SL is above the IPB high but in times when the previou bar high is lined up with the IPB high, I don't think twice abt moving the SL a few pips more above the high of the previous bar if this bar's high does exceed the IPB high...
G.
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hey ghous thanks, you always have something nice to say and honestly you are by far the nicest person here to everyone. I really appreciate it.
also i learn alot from you too
My turn to say thanks.
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Ghoust, your opinion is indeed important. Learning from corrections of experienced traders is a great way to improve. Thanks.
I just want to comment on your points.
1) You have pullet the fib lines from another location. In my chart is looks good.
So how do you know which one of those fib locations is better?
Neither of us is wrong. My fibs were pointing at the recent dominant down trend and you pointed out at the overall up trend. I used the location I used because it was better lined up with the current price action...
As long as your fibs are drawn from and to a distinct Swing high/low they are always valid.
2) Maybe it's weird, but I see an uptrend . You say that the price just pulled back from a major downtrend. If you will look a bit back in time around 1998 on the chart...you will see that there was a large and strong historic downtrend. Latter came a strong uptrend which wasn't a kind of a pull back...but a strong uptrend (of course the price always makes pullbacks, but not such major pullbacks like it is doing currently). That makes me think it's a uptrend and not just a pullback.
But of course, we can never know.... Edit: Just edited point 2 to correct and explain myself better.
Yeah I understand, but even if you consider the entire up trend and the bullish pin bar you still don't end up at a good enough location...the yellow square I marked on my chart is where this pin bar would have held some reasonable weight, and then you could have looked at it as "a bullish pin bar with the overall up trend"
3) Maybe it's material that I am still not familiar with...but what is a IPB? are you meaning "inverted pin bar"? Sorry, I am quite new to forex (6 weeks). I will be glad if you can please explain what is the meaning of that (I mean the effect on the price). How can you just turn a pin bar and look at it as a bearish pin bar.
Here you go. (A post where I introduced the IPB in great detail) let me know through pm or at the thread if you have further questions...(or you could read through my posts.
4) I have stressed in my previous post that I will enter long only after a breakout of the 91 PPZ ( I have even said 91.7). So I am aware of that strong PPZ. If the price will break it as I think, that PPZ will act as a strong support area. That's the reason I will enter only after a breakout of that line. Talking about pullbacks....maybe a breakout of that PPZ will confirm an uptrend instead of a pullback?
Just a newbie thought of course.
Right. and BTW your thought process is already very very mature for a 6 week old newbie...carry on like this and you'll be going a long long way
By the way I agree that it's not located on a swing low/high...I have mentioned it also myself. But if we will wait only for swings on the monthly, we will need to wait at least a few years.
Not exactly, Swing highs are great locations but you can also trade them (pin bars and other PA bars) at pull backs with enough supporting confluences...and then again with time you will have the added advantage of hunting the lower tfs too so you don't really have to wait for years for a trade.
In fact one of your major concerns when starting off would be the battle with over trading. trust me.
Thanks again for your comments buddy and take care,
No worries bro...happy to be of some minor assistance.
Ben
Ghous.
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Since following the thread, I have become more and more interested in your method of analysis and trade execution. Do you have any suggested links to a synopsis of the way you setup,analyze and execute within J16 thread or elsewhere.
If not i will continue to go through the thread picking up your golden pieces of trading wisdom!
Many many thanks................
P.S also did you get ur place at Nottingham uni? (seen from a different thread you started).
Revstar
Hey,
Again, Gouse? lol
Replace the B in Boss with G and you're close to the actual pronunciation.
I am planning to launch a private forum some time next week where I'll compile all my posts and take my fan house along with me...don't worry it won't be expensive. uh oh Jim, you also don't worry you'll get the reward too, cuz guess what? I'll have your entire PF title with the link and all on the VERY first page! happy?
Jokes aside really I deserve no credit what so ever
if there's anybody out there you could thank, it has to be the Jims and Mike and Raczekfx and SL and Bemac and Wizard and and many many more seniors...From the core of my heart..."I owe my everything to them"
Sorry you'll just have to go through my posts and stuff, and thankx for respect beyond what I deserve sir.
Oh and yeah I am not at Nottingham. I was admitted there but was never able to afford it. (I am still in Pakistan with plans of studying at one of the better universities till at least my first degree)
Cheers.
Ghous.
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ghous i have a total newbie question for you. when you refer to a "double top" what exactly does that mean?
is it like a tbh or is it because 2 candles at differnt times made the same high?
the reason im confused is because in your cadjpy chart i see 3 bars touching that 87.80 area highlighted and if i look to the left i see another bounce off of that area.
maybe i answered my own question is a double top when price revisits an area 2 distinctively different times even if at these times more than one bar touches??
sorry for the newb question...
Thnx John,
I was abt to explain until I saw the post from the Motel guy.
Well said Bates
Ghous.
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@ batesmotel thanks for the detailed explanation, just so i have this straight then a double top...
you got the double top/bottom thing right Johnny...
Abt the highs and lows, just make sure you use them as only supporting confluence like stuff just like Greg did in his post.
because the markets don't operate in a perfect world and pattern. An uptrend doesn't always move in a higher high higher low pattern and doesn't always reverse when such a pattern breaks...same for a down trend...
Just sayin' so you get this absolutely right while you're still at the initial stages of discovery and learning.
I'll join the pf...soon... (A little short on cash, I mean common I am a 19 year old university student still very much dependent on my dear ol' dad lol )
Ghous.
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All of what Bundy said, EDIT: and what Jarroo said....
To tell you more abt it this is very nearly a good touch trade (short) setup for me if price can look to kiss/touch Friday's bar high early on Monday...
There we go.
and I missed it lol
Not my fault, won't chase them 3 am in the morning...
Still a complacent feeling to get it doing what I wanted it to...
(a trade exactly where I wanted (near the red line) would have been sitting at +50 very much at BE now.)
Ghous.
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ok so this will be my plan IF I'll enter this trade.....does it make sense?
Good plan Benji,
Sometimes you have to be very patient and sensible on the lower time frames early on a Monday, price does what it is doing right now a lot....struggle for momentum.
So far the momentum is giving good signs of building on the short side, indicated by the Ib and the "so far going nowhere" bar currently under play,
I have a blind short order waiting at 1.676 so I'll give it a push with my $1000 a pip volume
Ghous.
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I'm glad I'm getting positive feedbacks. I feel I'm starting to "get it"
This stuff is really simple if you compare it to all the messy charts of other traders who use other kind of "systems". So much lines....they can't even see how the bar looks like.
I'm glad I have found this thread at the start of my journey....thanks to Johnny
Umm..yes..basically I know I must practice higher time frames before going down...but I will allow myself taking some picks on the 4H....my curiosity will kill me at the end.
By the way, you have...
No I meant 1.676,
And I missed it with a hair line
lol, a trade would have been up 40 pips (my BE point on touch trades) so a missed trade get's pulled off here. next...
(no intents of shorting the 4h pin...risk constraints...)
oh and BTW the $1000 a pip thingie was a joke.
lol
Ghous.
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Just like STO said in a post earlier, we are not here to trade every PA bar that we see
Just remember than an IPB is a pin bar. Would you ever consider the bar you pointed out as a valid pin bar? Hell no! It's probably just an inside bar or something...
Moreover look at the overall PA of the up trend price has literally dragged on it's way up. lot's of small bullish bars and dojis and inside bars all side by side doing nothing but pulling price a little higher.
the location was all good but pa was poor.
Regards,
Ghous.
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You boys are brave with those IPB's. I look at them and say - "What does this say about the order flow? Continuation most likely."
Ghous - can you explain this a bit? Or simply point me at a post? I just don't understand this PA you guys are messin' with. <scratching head>
lol
Not always STO,
a bullish pin bar during an uptrend at a resistance point gives you a hint abt the short order flow, just that since the bulls are dominant they do end up taking price back up to where it opened on the bar...but then it's a good indication that the bears are starting to get in...
Same with a bearish pin bar at certain locations...
it is definitely the most subtle of all PA bars though...the one Basber pointed out was nowhere near a trade, someone trading that won't be brave he'd be flat out stupid.
Ghous.
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EURJPY BUOB on the hourly. Not the biggest in the world, but in the right place. (Round number and confluence with a PPZ and on the 50% retrace) (Nice how things are a bit slow around the office!)
8AM EST bar. Scale your chart out a bit and you'll see we are entering an area of consolidation. Manage accordingly. Could be a 2R trade (or close) - if you are keeping track.
I also saw numerous pretenders out there - bars without a home (PPZ and confluence)
Nice one STO,
the location was awesome!
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I find myself in 2 trades currently a short EURGBP (few days old daily BEOB) and a long EURCAD (triggered late on yesterday weekly pin ...)
Not wanting to discuss whether these are good trades or not (I think I know the answer ) but I find myself on one hand wanting a show of strength from the Euro (EURCAD trade) and on the other hand a weakness (EURGBP) now I know in any trade there are two pairs and indeed the EUR could stay the same through out these trades and I could win based on the...
Quote:
Not wanting to discuss whether these are good trades or not (I think I know the answer )
I loved that!!
Quote:
but I find myself on one hand wanting a show of strength from the Euro (EURCAD trade) and on the other hand a weakness (EURGBP) now I know in any trade there are two pairs and indeed the EUR could stay the same through out these trades and I could win based on the behaviour of the other pairs involved (GBP and CAD in this example) but is this situation advisable? - can I really take a trade based on a single charts analysis and not worry about what other charts are doing? my gut feeling is yes and I can trade like this but I'd really like to know...
You should just treat them independently IMHO,
Because look at it like this, you're short Eur/Gbp and long Eur/Cad but that doesn't always mean that you're looking at a weak euro in one pair and stronger euro in the other, the price movement may well be caused by the other pairs...i.e gbp and cad.
So for example if GBP goes up eur/gbp will fall but eur/cad maybe little effected...
If you're not willing to go into the depths of exploring co-relations you should just treat them individually and let PA show you the way...
Just my 2 pips.
Ghous.
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You mentioned a TBLHC, might be my chart but those are not really even close; 1.68884 and 1.69010 ok forget the "pipets" 1.6888/1.6901. Recalling from previous threads, we're looking for 1-2 pip max difference to satisfy the requirement of a TBLHC. That's kinda besides the point though in that the last daily bar hasn't even closed yet, so who knows where it'll end up.
But, if it does close as a TBLHC and you were looking for a long position, some would want to see a retrace back to 1.6745 area with PA to confirm a long entry.
Well said jazz,
A TBLHC is a PA setup that needs to be traded very very carefully,
here's a visual explanation of what Jazz said in his post above,
They are looked for at super good locations and super good form.
Ghous.
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It's funny, this is the trade I basically scrutinized to death in my journal due to being counter-trend, limited confluence and very likely "twitching to trade" motivated (I took it to that very area and immediately felt that it was beh).
Did it work? Yes. Was the rejection area visible? Yes.
Did it feel like trying to ride the bucking bull(counter-trend) instead of just riding the slow, steady, but safer, mainstream pony trail(with the trend)? Indeedelydoodely.
If I'm already thinking "that high is probably going to be taken out within...
Lol. I see...
But then that means you never take a trade at a swing high/low against the trend?
G.
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Just a small point, and I'm sorry if I miss-understood you.
Divergence in this case would be that price is making higher highs and the MACD makes lower highs... (chart).
Just trying to make things simple.
This is not referring for YOUR particular g/cad trade. this is in general.
hey Ady,
What Josh was pointing out is what you call "hidden" bearish divergence.
What you outlined is "regular" bearish divergence.
The thinking is . .You will probably be stopped and Price will reverse on you if you run in to a PPZ level like this.
So once Price breaks you protect yourself by moving to break even and/or take partial profits and limilt your risk once that PPZ is hit.
Now I know you may be a R:R guy and the PB size was 400+ pips which would have not even come close to being hit on this PB. So, you would adjust you position size to reflect your risk accordingly.
Or tighten your stop loss by placing it over the 1.4500 reducing your risk and waiting...
Looking at the 4H jarroo, one then "should" have been stopped. cuz the Pb did break hard and bounced off that ppz albeit temporaily but enough to get one stopped if one had protected himself by moving the stop to BE at the ppz.
G.
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I will when I can (although I don't know too much of your J16 lingo), One more thing..and I don't have all the time to go into it right now (you guys can figure it out though) When looking at eurusd, what other pair corrisponds very closely with it? Oh ummm, eurjpy? When you look at both charts they move very much alike..Move for move that is and even trend wise. knowing this very simple point, there are ways you can cover your own butt by trading both pairs in unison, and not using stops. Don't just jump in and start doing this, just think about...
There are lot of ppl questioning abt co relations here Scott, we don't deal in them extensively so...
If you can stay around, it would be great for them,
Thnx.
G.
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lol. In all fairness, that is only the entry/trade management side. The complete JamMiRacJimGh Wizard MCD system is going to compound your account so fast it will collapse on itself and create a black hole
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How do you guys play BEOB or BUOB? Is is following the break of the bar or at the close of the bar?
IF it is a bUOB, where should the PPZ be?
I'll answer your pm via this post of yours tradertt as you've almost asked the same thing here...
Outside bars do work...in fact on the reliability scale they are next after pin bars which take up the first place...
They are played at the break of the bar high/low.
But just like pin bars, a bar that takes the shape of an outside bar isn't all that matters...location including evidence of ppzs and confluence intensities all will point to or against a potential trade.
Importantly if for some reason you do find yourself uncomfortable with this particular variation of PA bars you are more than free to avoid trading them for now, and instead just watch them where they occur and how they play out, if even after that you don't feel like trading them, ignore them from there on...
Being comfortable with whatever you do while trading is the KEY. I get rid of my pants sometimes when it's hot as hell and I can't stop thinking abt the itching my tight jeans can cause...when it comes to trading...you have to be absolutely complacent.
Take Ryan for example, we have quite a few of his followers trading or wanting to trade other pa setups along with the pin bars he takes, but for him....it's the pin bars that he is most comfortable with, and he doesn't give a damn abt anything else and neither should you, if that's how you want to operate.
Ghous.
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Would assume that the bar in the picture is NOT a BUOB right?
that's right, those are just indecision bars. for an outside bar the body (i.e the gap between the open and close) needs to be of a considerably long so as to make it appear authoritative and pointing towards one of the 2 either the bulls or bears strongly, it's only then that the bar can be traded safely,
g.
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This is my first step in setting up my charts daily.
I will start from the Weekly Timeframe, find 2 PPZs around price,
Move down to the Daily then to the H4
I tried to match the PPZs to the Whole numbers (ending with 00) as much as possible as I see from Jarroo charts, is that advisible or should I leave them at their odd numbers?
P.S. for the H4 time frame, I cannot find a Good PPZ level below the current price so I just used a Support level.
If anyone can advice if the drawings are correct,...
OMG! Those are great bro,
Abt the rounding off, it's a personal thing, I personally don't do it specially for higher time frame ppzs but rather like to draw them using the rectangle feature so as to accomodate the actual ppz and the round number in a res/supp "zone"
Cheers.
Ghous.
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I then added Fibs into the picture to get confluence
So does it mean that if a PA forms at these 3 levels, it may be a good place to take the trade (Of course depending on what PA happens) but if a PA forms at 1.0900 as there is no confluence, I should not take the trade?
I keep getting confused about Confluence
If we see a PA happening only at a PPZ with no Fibs confluence, can we take the trade?
What if we see a PA happening at a Fibs level with no PPZ, can we take the trade?
What + What = Confluence?
I understand from a previous...
Lol.
Confluence is defined as "lining up of supporting trading tools to assist you in a trade"
Sometimes all you have for confluence is a single yet very strong ppz, or only a very round number, sometimes only a fib and/or ma or any combination of these...
For me personally if the PA setup has no problmes in the shape or space department only a round number or a distinct ppz can convince me to take the trade because these are the 2 most strongest of your trading tools.
Morever it will depend entirely on the trader and his assessment of A+ and the less than A+ location setups to draft a "confluence check list"....and because it differs from trader to trader it isn't as easy as asking the question out here, you'll have to work on it and see which combo suits you well and again a lot will depend on where you lie on the agreesiveness/conservativness scale.
Ghous.
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What I would look at is a close below the 50 fib on my chart and the yellow ppz. If it can do that the pin bar would be extremely appealing...given the range bound recent PA.
Ghous.
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I have a different view. IMHO, I believe that technical analysis don't necessarily goes with news. They are two quite independent things. It is very risky to trade news based on technical analysis, no matter what method you use. It simply is not high-probs trading. The best method is to prevent important news, if you are trading intradaily.
Yes, this one go very well, but it is more about coincidence.
We never do this...
"trade news based on technical analysis"
News has nothing to do with our trading because for our money where price is going is of far far more importance than why this is why stuff like co relations and news impacts stay out of our way...
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I will trade just about any pin formed off a .618, .786 or .886 retracement # when it rejects off the 150 or 365ema. This will probably be my signature trade from here forward. If you have a period converter, you can find these trades all over different TF's. The higher TF the less opportunities but probably better results. I will need to set fourth the rules of the exit strategy before I share further but I will be posting a chart. This pin was...
Very nice Kiss,
these 2 mas blow it up almost every time they come together...
Good stuff.
G
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My PB trading result is poor. I have my fourth failed trades out of 5 now. Again the price just triggered my order and went all the way against me until hitting stoploss.
This is not a technically easy trading method at all for me.
Have to start over! Will see how to.
kk
It's just simple amazing KK,
It's like me speaking a year ago...
truly amazing...
And hang on,
I have something to share...
Approx a year ago from today, I felt something very very close to what Kk just posted above...
This was a time when I had just begun my journey here with the J16 staff...
I had lost 6 consecutive pin bar trades on a live account,
I have a habit of "free writing" whenever I am not feeling normal, I.e when I am super happy or super sad or super exuberant or just feeling like superman.
This is what I wrote on a piece of paper, that I have with me and it will always remain with me, my biggest source of inspiration that came from within me.
A lot of personal stuff, from a mind exhausted, bruised, frustrated, depressed, and abt to give up beyond just trading...
"I've lost my 6th trade now, it's the 4th consective loss making month...Have I gone sick? me, no way....I am not sick. this was a great pin bar at a great location, it was at the ppz, it couldn't rob me of my money....this son of a bit$% just simple can't!! What I did I do wrong nothing! Or maybe these ppl are nuts, why does he have this cool air abt him all the time, this stupid jarroo...he thinks he's top!? he goes abt posting stupid range bound ugly pin bar trades and here I take this great looking pb on euro and it totally fu$$s me!!! there is something wrong with this system! God why did I have to leave Phillip to come to this so called naked trading, I am going to make one last post here and I am gonna bash everyone and their stupid system. to hell with naked trading, Phillip ain't giveing me anything either I just don;t give a damn, trading is not my piece of cake, I was better at online marketing, wonder what Max will think if he get's to know I am getting back into netwrok marketing, duh doesn't matter all of us can get carried away some times....I have to say I have spent the worst days of my life at this forex business. Just no goddamn system would work. And I think i was going to make a living of this one day. see my father smile at me as i share his financial burdens. see my mother being proud of me. see my younger sister going to the best school in town. You're a looser Ghous. All that you aimed for was a dream. you're a stupid 17 year old kid who doesn't know how to wipe himself properly. YOU DUMBHEAD...Ok here goes...."TRADING SUCKS! JAMES! YOU THINK YOU'RE GOOD BUT YOU'RE NOT, YOUR SYSTEM STNKS AND I HATE THIS HYPE YOU HAVE ABT YOU!!!!.....hahahahaha! How I wish he was beside me looking at what I was writing, haha!"
(the last few lines of the writing were blotted with my tears I guess, so I tried to fill in with memory)
Amazing emotions, I was laughing and crying and beating my pillow and writing at the same time. FANCY THAT.
I never ever thought this would go public, but if it can bring you back KK to the same old confident determined poster you earlier were...I wouldn't think twice.
Ghous.
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I've never been that frank and transparent in my entire life...something abt Kk loosing it exactly where I was abt to until I found you guys...made me put it up,
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haha Jim is really going to get a kick out of that. Because you know how many people have felt like that, or are feeling like that. Inspiring buddy.
Glad you didn't write bad stuff about me HAH
Yeah I wonder why? Cuz as far as I remember I was filled with spite for each and every poster here the seniors specially, you were just lucky I guess lol
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One Question Ghous....Would you guys not even hesitate to trade a nice PB or BUOVB tomorrow just before NFP? 4hr bar would complete at 8am EST(depending on broker), NFP comes out at 8:30am EST... Just wondering....this is my first NFP with this thread.
GregB
NFP is for me probably the only news that can add to the cons of a trade setup but I know there are many who won't even hesitate to go for a "good looking" BUOB a few hours before the NFP.
Since it's your first NFP on the "bright and sunny side" you should probably look to sit this and a few others out and watch how adorable PA can get. Jig came up with a good post abt "news vs PA" which explains a lot.
Cheers,
Ghous.
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Here is a trade a GBP/CAD trade I was in earlier today....
Scott,
You hit the nail on the head, co incidentally every "Scott" that I meet is one solid person/trader.
The best part abt that trade of yours was that you were aware of the fact that no ppz had balls big enough to cause you harm, once you were 60 pips in the green...
Hats off to you SIR.
I got out with a BE myself,
Ghous.
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Your post is very inspiring and touching. Thank you so much!
I just wonder what have you changed technically to come out from loss to winning? I believed that before you wrote that on paper, you had already studied James PA for a while. How did you make the breakthrough after the writing?
It would be great if you can share!
Best Regards,
kk007
Well who else could it be Kk,
It was the man himself James16, and before I thought I had just one great man behind me, I was taken by surprise to see a fleet of great men all cheering and grinning up at me,
They taught me to to love, they taught me to live, they taught me positivity, they taught me to care, they taught me abt self belief and what it can do for you...and yeah they did also teach me how to a trade.
Best of all except the trading part, almost none of the material taught to me was ever put in a post. (except by Rac a few times over which I pondered for the rest of the day) It's all around you here in this great atmosphere...
G.
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First by an authoritative DBHLC close and second by the reluctance of price to "fear" the 160 level indicated by the quick hard break and the constant on going battle with it.
Not an A+ setup by any means BTW...but good PA nevertheless...
ghous.
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First by an authoritative DBHLC close and second by the reluctance of price to "fear" the 160 level indicated by the quick hard break and the constant on going battle with it.
Not an A+ setup by any means BTW...but good PA nevertheless...
ghous.
Lot's of break evens this month, (and a few losses) need to get back on track...
Here's Gj, after an 80 pip drop in the green it comes back and stops me out for 0,
Next...
G,
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Man this has got to be one of my most exciting trading days to date!!!
even if its not all going my way!! LOL
I assume its the USD news? not sure what thats gotta do with GBPJPY tho... unfortunatly can't really look at graphs too much... work <..cough..> and all that...
Tom
EDIT: news didn't look that intresting? must be something else? ummmm (Well maybe according to other forums)
Why can't you just look at 160 and say it finally rejected price.
Let's get back to Price Action trading shall we?
G.
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Hey bro...that was absolutely unexpected. ruined my beauty EJ PB on my feed. I am confided it will find resistance at 162.500 and retrace (hopefully will form a new PN with even a longer nose on the EJ).
Just wanted to ask...based on what did you take that trade short? (sorry if I missed any previous post of yours on that). I can't see any PA there...(just something that reminds a PB..lol....did you take it as a PB trade?).
Thanks
Ben
Hey Benji, this (the Gj trade) was a DBHLC, not perfect in shape but the location is what made it special, space was a worry and it did go on tp prove to be too big a problem...
Oh and BTW great trade on the Eur/cad...goes on to once again approve of the fact that a great PA setup doesn't know what time it is
G
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I don't know if anyone else took this, but here is another trade I took. This is already my second trade this month, which is unusual because I usually only take between 1 to 4 daily trades per month.
GBP/CHF daily DBHLC. Price broke hard and hit the first trouble area and reversed. See chart.
Sorry for the blurry chart, I'm still working on a fix.
Scott
Nice one Scotty,
Since you're using mt4, I would advise you to use the "Save as picture" option that mt4 has...What I do is I save the picture in 600 x 500 frame and edit it to add text or whatever using the paint software you could also use Jing to edit it I guess,
The blurring you see is probably because you're using a big monitor and trying to capture the entire screen...
Let us know if this works,
G
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You're right about the large screen, I have large monitors (all at a high resolution) for my home setup. On my computer they look fine but the forum compresses and blurs them, so I'll be saving them in mt4 like I used to and annotating them in another program.
Thanks for the help guys.
Scott
Yeah yeah ok ok...
You have a good setup but mine's not bad too...it's a 14 inch magnificant monitor and it's like 10 years old,
uh...oh...I mean I admit I am jealous.
(I am yet to step on the proffesionalism gas!)
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I too took this trade, but ended up taking a 130 pip loss. I see that you got out at BE. Please advise as to your thought process for where and why you moved your stop to BE.
The first trouble area I see is at the 157.80 area, marked by the blue area. I entered at 159.85 with a stop above the highs. My plan was to move my stop to BE when price hit 158.60 (the lower range of the large BUB)
Perhaps I should have targeted the first round number, 159, for the area to get my stop to BE.
Please advise Ghous, thanks!
Ross
Hi Ross,
It reversed on me when it was near 80 pips.
On an NFP Friday on the daily time frame when you try and tame a beast like Gj, you've got to have yourself covered...completely!
My first target area was the 157 level, and it was here where I would have taken some off, but no way was I going to wait that long to give it a free ride, I moved it to BE the moment price was up +50,
Like I said before I do tend to be a little cautious on NFP days, on another day I might have let this run (and it probably should have) today I wasn't prepared to do that...
G
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Hey PA is PA and it doesnt matter what size screen you see it on. Although I must say it is nice to see beautiful PA on a large screen staring you in the face
At the rate you're going I'm sure you'll be able to upgrade your setup soon enough
Scott
I'll be all over the thread and the forum with pics and specifications and what not in addition to dancing around like crazy when I do upgrade...that's for sure
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I guess I'm was saying the move was larger than than the indicated PA and not all moves can be predicted via PA (not saying this one wasn't however) - disasters are a good example... but yes a large amount of the time PA is there. This is in line with the TA vs fundie debate and not one which I want to start! - I am firmly in the PA camp - but I'm sure a lot of folks make good money from fundemental trading...
am I making sense? - if the news was the 'other way' then I'm sure the charts would have went the other way as well no? even if...
read the J16 thread with your right eye and have your left covered with one hand.
Now view the same thing with your left eye and cover the right one up.
What do you see? Any difference in the 2 visions?
The "technical vs fundamental" debate is really as meaningless as debating that the 2 visions are in any way different
Again not at you Tom,
just sayin'
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All I use is my macbook & an extra monitor (19")..
i'm not very computer savy but hey!! it works... I'm pretty sure s/r & pa looks the same..no matter what. Just not as sexy maybe??
Oh common Jeff, yes the bumpy rides and sea storms won't allow you anything better then that on board...
What we want to know abt is your setup at the "Jeff Mansion"
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Hi there. Time for another one of those awkward first posts.
Firstly, I just want to say hello to everyone and thank you all for contributing to one of the most interesting threads I've ever seen. I get the feeling that stumbling across this thread could be the catalyst to a series of life changing events for me. I really feel there is that much potential in the methods that you all preach here.
My plan of action is going to take time but I believe the wait will be worth the rewards. At the present time, Im studying for an exam at the end of...
Hi Rocket,
Welcome to the thread and congrats on your first post!
Thank you for your kind words, much appreciated,
Looking forward to your posts,
G.
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Hey guys I respect your pickiness. But I put this one in the "A" catagory.
Nice work on showing the Pros:
Strong Monthly PPZ level; 1.7000.
Fib 61.8% confluence.
50% retracement confluence. Off recent Highs.
Sure the size could be bigger but its closely equal to or greater then the size of recent bars in the last few weeks.
Top of consolidation of the recent weeks.
This last one is where it gets a little tricky. The traffic in the consolidation. How strong the break is (momentum) and how Price behaves at these levels in blue (zoomed...
This seems a problem to me,
It hasn't really formed off the highs but rather it's over and above the highs,
But given it's off 1.7 it might still be very much playable...
just suggesting that one of the pros might in reality be a hidden con...
G.
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Hey Ghous and others,
Just curious, am i right if i said it is a PB?
Is it tradeable?
Thanks..my third post?..
Hi Berisinc,
Technically a Pb? YES
Tradable? Probably No.
For the first few months you're at it you must make a conscious effort to go for the very best of setups.
The idea for newbies at least is to be super conservative, stay on the higher TFs, go for the few A+ trades and maintain the win rate at 90% or better...
The energy that this generates can be enough to power you for the rest of your trading career...
Newbies often fail to realize this dead simple formula
According to this concept you did the right thing by looking at the weekly chart for setups but even "stopping" at a pin bar like this can have detrimental effects on your long term success...
Pick the obvious ones at great locations and leave the advanced "less than A+" stuff for the right time.
All the best
G.
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For those who shorted the D1 PB and closed out at BE, myself included, the now forming H4 bar may end up to be a decent DBLHC bouncing at the 50 fib ret level of the previous up-move.
Guess that brings up another ?. While the high of daily PB has yet to be violated, indicating the end of it's validity, when would you consider taking a long position, such as the DBLHC forming now on H4? (Assuming it stays as one upon it's close of course)
I ask b/c I feel like I'm trying to make something happen albeit with supporting reasons.
Long is out of the question for me Jazz,
Unless I can see some some real real good PA at the 4h perhaps (the DBLHC is far from being one) which can off set the gigantic negative factor of going against a down trend which only just seems to have resumed
Remember that at the end of the day, it's all abt going with the "overall momentum" unless you're a scalping geek.
All the best,
Ghous.
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Thanks for the warm welcome guys. Much appreciated.
Heres that weekly pin on CAD-CHF from last week. I had my sell order in on the break of support at .9845. It broke this with good momentum on friday morning after testing the .9855 level on a few previous occasions during the week.
BUT...being a NFP Friday and all, anything can happen and this sucker went straight back up like a raging bull to end the week hovering at the psychological resistance point of 1.0000.
I realise I could have had .9800 marked as my first target zone(which I probably...
Good decent chart Rocket,
How I wish I could have replied to your queries but my monitor won't allow me, It's flickering so bad I feel it's gonna burst...
I'll see how soon I can get this fixed...
Can't blame him though, dear old friend supported me 14 long years (pat pat)
And anyways there are better ppl out there to respond...
You're on the right track is what you need to know
G
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I have been reading some of the commentary and would like to encourage our newer and learning traders to make simplicity the watchword.
You'll read some of the seasoned traders comments and they will often wax eloquent on some of the finer details and possibilities. And while doing this, never waver from the conclusions gained from the the simple PA as it presents itself.
Why do I say this? Because it is frightenly easy to lose ourselves and our bearings.
Hence -
Look at the location PA is at - PA that is solid...
True,
very true...
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That's the beauty of this potential trade. If Price breaks below the PB, the 1.6700-1.6600ish area will now be a nicely formed Weekly PPZ level i.e. PPZ level as your friend (red lines). I am very aware of the potential up move Price can likely move (blue lines). But the added confluences supporting this PB gives me the green flag.
Thanks ghous.
Jim
Sure,
And then if price can give us a "quick hard jarroo" style break, the 166 should hold nicely as resistance.
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Thanks for the words of encouragement Ghous, means a lot!
Hope your monitor gets a fresh kick of life. Although, at 14 years, its put up a fair fight! They don't make em like they used to eh? Maybe its telling you to invest in that pro set up you deserve. Lets hope you get another 14 years out of that when you do!
All the best
Dermot
hey there,
It's breathing well for now so let's go through your post...
just for reference this is post # 40419 from Rocket.
Quote:
hanks for the warm welcome guys. Much appreciated.
Our pleasure.
Quote:
Heres that weekly pin on CAD-CHF from last week. I had my sell order in on the break of support at .9845. It broke this with good momentum on friday morning after testing the .9855 level on a few previous occasions during the week.
BUT...being a NFP Friday and all, anything can happen and this sucker went straight back up like a raging bull to end the week hovering at the psychological resistance point of 1.0000.
I realise I could have had .9800 marked as my first target zone(which I probably should have!) as there has been previous PA in this...
I would want you to read what STO posted a few posts above this...stuff worth more than it's weight in gold, and my response to Jazz's post before that
Cad/Chf was no where near a trade you could risk your money on given the stage you're at.
A side way's market and lot's of spatial concerns, these trades although not entirely untradable require immense experience and skill in their management. Your thought process needs to be clear as crystal and your reflexes against anything that the market has to offer need to be ultra honed.
The fact that you're still in this trade with all cards on the table when you should have really just taken some or all off at the 9800 level goes on to suggest you're far from well equipped to handle such situations, and honest to God they can be as subtle as you can ever imagine...
for newbies the equation simplifies to "less than A+ = No trade"...that is if your greed and impatience will allow you to swallow this
Quote:
One of the first things I see at fault with my chart is that there is almost definitely too many lines fluttering about. I'm not too confident in my drawing of major PPZ zones yet, and would appreciate any advice people have to offer in ensuring that I only take heed of lines that WILL lead to A grade setups.
I would highly recomend the PA videos at the J16 PF guest section, Jim did some class acts with these "friendly zones",
besides just make sure you only have the needed lines that lie around current PA, the really obvious ones are very few...keep your charts bare so you can watch price carefully rather than tilt sideways and peep through MAs and loads of fibs or pivot points, all these can come in and go away as and when a trade setup develops or diminshes.
Quote:
What I had been previously doing was looking at the weekly and monthly charts and plotting visible areas of support and resistance often where price consolidated for a while then with SBR or RBS.
That's still the way you should do it, a line or 2 on the monthly, another 1 or 2 on the weekly and the daily and that's it...
Not sure what you mean by SBR & RBS
Quote:
One last thing to note is that the current weekly bar is tough to read. It could be a bullish hammer pattern and sign of the continuation of the current bull trend. Or it could be interpreted as the bearish hanging man pattern. Both patterns arnt the most reliable but noteworthy all the same.
To hell with it,
We're not here to trade or read every bar, what we need is the general direction and few prominent PA bars leading the way,
If you're worried abt your current trade, you should just let it hit your SL if it does and learn from it,
Gosh I love my loosers, they teach me, the winners just make me so godamn proud of myself for nothing
Quote:
Heres the chart. Pardon the messiness
It'll go away,
your's is still far better than how I drew it for the first time, I remember Pming James abt a serious problem, I could not trade even on the 4H (let alone daily and above as was instructed to me) because every trade had at most just 20 pips till the next ppz/trend line I wonder If he still has it...lol
right that's it,
See ya around Rocket,
Ghous.
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Update
Well, the pin did break and went to where you'd expect. Stopped out at BE+1
PinBar is technically still in play, but going to stand aside, for now. Bias is still long.
Risky...
But your trade management was commendable.
That is what needs to fill in for less than A+ setups,
Good stuff LVG
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I can't remember who said it but it went something like this: losing is what traders do while they wait for the great A++ set-ups... oooh so true. nothing last week only for a hatful of points to come along this week... does a pin ever look better than this?
MY DAMN WORD!!!
You won't see one as sweet as that for a loooonnnngggg time,
Beautiful setup Salisa,
thnx for sharing,
g
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took this as a Jacko-style "trade with the trend" long on EURUSD, saw a dip below 1.4100 and set a buy stop with a 50 pip SL per his style, off the daily chart...
Woke up to nice move and noticed this pinbar on the 4H.... anyone here in on this one??
Casey
good stuff,
Love the way Jacko attacks those round numbers.
We have quite of a few "round numbry" fellas here too...Mike e.g treats them like his wife.
lol
Ghous.
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Update: I have placed a pending order for the break of this. if it breaks 7000 and then the bar lows it could be a continuation of the trend.
Hey Tac,
Did you notice that there is more to this "res/supp zone" than just the 7000 price level?
You've got to be a super aggressive trader, to take a Bearish Pin bar near a swing low running immediately into the most important of long term ppzs for the pair in recent times.
Just a thought...
g
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stopped out on UC... looking back it was not really a good trade but it turned a profit with very tight management... onto doing what I said yesterday: "wait until you get a decent set-up"!!
108 was always a serious concern,
Like StO said it still did what it was supposed to do, and those experienced enough to handle such setups will no way loose on this...
Amazing how something as simple as "wait until you get a decent set-up" can take sooo looong to get drilled in, It's been more than 1 year down the road and I still at times struggle with it.
G
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Haven't talked about the weekly pin on GBPUSD, so I was wondering where everyone was in it (to those that took it of course). I got stopped out for a whopping 12 pips today after being up over 200 at one point. Since I'm still trying to figure out the 'take profit' side of this, should I have moved my stop up even further to get more pips, or did I do the right thing in leaving it around B/E until the weekly bar closed? I couldn't even really use the two-bar stop method on this one, since there wasn't enough bars yet (on the daily). Should I have...
I didn't take this trade myself, but here's what I would consider a trade well managed...
Step 1:
Enter 20 pips below the weekly Pin bar low (the red line on my chart) and watch for a "sustained break"
Step 2:
Take half off at "TP 1" marked on my chart. This would be around 230 pips,
move the SL -230 pips for the remaing half (blue line on my chart) so the worst you get is a BE on the trade.
Step 3:
Let it do it's thing.
***___***
Notice how you are bringing into play the yellow ppz (on my chart) and playing around a less than A+ setup (in terms of space concerns) in a nice well protected environment.
Just one way to have skinned this cat,
Again practice is what makes a man perfect.
Ghous.
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Would you take a IPB so late in the day? Just wanted to check.
I wouldn't.
But that would be because of my inability to "look after" an intra day trade, (assuming "so late in the day" refers to the asian sessions which is night time here where I live) rather than any doubts regarding the validity of the setup.
Quite clearly a good setup doesn't know what time it is.
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I have seen a few posts about silver and gold as well as oil and ther commodities... is it fair to say that the J16 pa will apply to all these? as they dont seem to translate that well to equities....
It always does Salisa,
It's just that the gaps between bars make it look untidy, but PA rocks...absolutely anywhere!
PS go through the last few posts of James16, he mentioned a non-fx chart where he took a gr8 looking BUOB off a sweet double bottom.
Hey there,
I'm new in here. I'm interested in FX and
made some successful experiences with a
demo software.
Now,before I'll take it to the next level I'd like
to get to know more about trading strategies.
Does anybody know a good page, book or sth. where
stategies are well explained?
To me you all seem to be professional traders.
Where do you have your skills from?
Best regards,
F.
Hi Rex,
and congratulations on your first post!
If you've had a good experience at a demo account than you really should know how you trade, the questions you ask are precisely what a demo is utilized for,
If you haven't found solutions to these questions yet, your demo needs to keep going and all "moving to the next level" thoughts need to be kept aside.
We got our skills from James16, but duh! He didn't place a charm on us, he showed us the way and we found ourselves the edge over the majority of traders that fail in this business, by putting in the efforts and time it required.
ghous.
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wanted some advice on wether this is qualifies as a DHLC type formation?
the second bar didn't retest the highs of the first bar it was already there so to speak? so is this some sort of hybrid BEOB/DHLC combo?
just wanted to know if this is valid PA? - not necesserliy if its a valid trade if you get my meaning!
Thoughts?
Tom
mbqb11 will better assist you on this,
but I for one tend to be extremely cautious with all these "less common" PA setups. As yu rightly pointed out the DBHLC doesn't comply to a "perfect" DBHLC shape.
The logic behind using this particular pair of bars as an entry trigger lies in the event that the first bar touches a ppz and closes below it. The next bar does the same and finds res/supp near or at the previous bar low/high and bounces in the opposite direction with authority (extending further than the first bar). This is clearly a good indication of supp/res at a ppz which is the base of our method here.
A lot of times when trying to assess the validity of a PA bar keeping the basic definition of the setup in mind can be really helpful.
ghous.
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This is true for sure. Put a buffer of 15 or so pips on it and THEN check out how many false breaks happen (quite a few less).
It's just like a trendline. Trendline breaks happen only to return and follow through along with the trendline. What makes this any different? That's why nobody in their right mind would put a stop right on that trendline..right?
You're teasing us Mike.
lol
Can't wait...
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....
When you come up with your simple plan.. put the trade on & set your stop & set a target then leave it alone... dont touch it until either the target or stop is hit... LEAVE IT ALONE..
...
The biggest, most succulent and the sweetest cherry of em'll
Fortunately one of the major contributors in my early days salvation was Rusty Jeff. It was this very line (quoted above) back then which has probably made the biggest difference in my trading.
Even today I will sometimes tend to diverge from my original plan, and the losses that follow soon after make me feel like this very line jumped out of that sticker near my monitor and slapped me across my face.
Keep them coming Jeff,
Agree with jarroo, post 1 material.
Ghous.
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That would be just an Inside Bar. Nice Bullish candle before it, almost a BUOB or Triple Bar Low Higher Close. Maybe building momentum to continue the short term uptrend. Or stalling out to drop and continue the longer term down trend.
Yes nice location.
Completely agree,
Just like it cannot be called a bullish Pin bar it cannot be called a bearish IPB,
An IPB is a pin bar, and has to come along with all the characteristics of a pin bar to qualify as a valid inverted pin bar.
The bar Verno pointed out is just an IB.
Ghous.
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I have been short from the weekly pin 2 weeks ago after my order triggered last Friday at 9825 Price retraced quite sharply but I had decided to give this a bit more room being a weekly trade.
Chf seemed to be strong yesterday against all other currencies which has favoured this trade and a BEOB has now formed on the Weekly.
As the price closed yesterday near the weeks low I have now closed this trade. Reason for this is firstly I expect to see some retracement and secondly I think the BEOB could be traded so I can get back in around...
Why else do you think James recommends higher time frames to get the real hang of price action?
Holding on to your analysis, your trades, your thoughts, is so damn important. And nothing can teach you this better than holding on to a trade 100 pips in red for 5 days in a row and then going in the right direction finally.
Here's an example similiar to what Ijr posted above, I was short Eu off the weekly Pin Bar, huge resistance at 1.43, close below 50 fib, a bearish IPb right next to it...the idea was and still is to catch the ride with the bears...
All this week it kept me in the red, at most -150 (only a few pips from my SL), but still managed to close as a decent indecision bar,
Point is, when you make a plan you need to stick to it...Jeff talked abt this in his last post and this is just one more occasion where "sticking to the plan" does appear to work..
How to master controlling emotions? You guessed it. The higher time frames.
Ghous.
EDIT: was not aimed at you Ijr, just a general thought. The reason your trade ended up as a loss for you is pretty special. We hope to see him/her on the thread soon.
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I've been reading sporadically through the thread in the last weeks, while going through a losing strike and seeing...
Hi mate,
Welcome and congrats on your first post.
Glad you don't begrudge the higher time frames like a lot many do specially when they start off.
2 bar 3 bar PA formations work just as good as a single bar PA formation.
So considering the 2 weekly bars on Uj as a single pin bar is not a bad idea,
Abt trading it,
I don't see it off any major fib level (50 or 61.8) or MA, but given that it's with the trend, it is still very much playable IMO at least down to the 9200 level...
Cheers and do post more,
Ghous.
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Hey SP. Nice to see you too, thanks. Had some personal stuff I had to take care off. Below is a view on the hidden divergence on the weekly chart. Weekly 365 also in play.
Ah,
Welcome back Fxvision.
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I was back testing with some IBs this weekend and the results are pretty good,
Looks like It's time we should put aside the cliche that "IBs are subtle and difficult" and look into the stuff we already know to trade these beauties...
I am now completely with Mike (mike w) when he says that a pending order below an IB is just a blind trade, and no doubt that by doing this the trader falls into the "false break" trap.
The best way to play them is to find a daily/weekly IB as a consolidation zone on a lower time frame and play a "logical break" where price has to close and preferably retest the consolidation range for a trade confirmation...
These are just a few of the setups I scrutinized, these are all either IBs on the daily or tiny bars like dojis and indecision bars representing the consolidation on the daily itself. Sorry If I am repeating any setup Mike already discussed cuz it's the same pair he did the test on - Eu.
Thanks Mike for a wonderful contribution.
Regards,
Ghous.
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each pair has it's own settings and i'm still testing myself, but for EU add a 20sma close with a 150point band (usually needs 1500 & -1500 in the levels box)
long above/short below - enough said.
I'm thinking of posting up a closed journal with these examples on them from the year 2004 onward for multiple pairs. I'll be starting with the gbp/usd. This will be to illustrate how important it is to wait for that initial candle close underneath the consolidating range.
...
.
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If I was in this trade I would have booked some profit straight away at where price currently is, the end of that long wick of the failed bearish pin bar should catch your attention straight away...
1.74 might still be on the cards but such an anticipation shouldn't have balls big enough to cause you harm, right Bryan?
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Hey benji 533, ghous and finnishforex thanks for your replies. I've never heard about Varengold before? What are your experiences? benji533 and ghous are you using this platform as well? What's a must when chosing a platform?
THX for your help!
mt4 does the job for me. (Fxopen)
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Not sure if anyone has posted this catching up, I was just on a 12 day European vacation London, Paris, Rome and saw this bad boy this morning but skipped on it because I thought I was justbeing anxious.
I need to grow a pair. I have not been pulling the trigger as much as a I should an am being really picky. This was great though. Nice pin, off a round number and 150 ema with trend should have took it but passed. Need to get back into it and let this rip especially when I use the bar break stop on every trade this thing would be at such minimized...
If I were you, I would still be busy recalling a trip as cool as the one you mentioned dmc.
trades taken, trades missed, trades won and trades lost are all elements that make up your trading,
Sure that was a sweet trade, but regretting your own decisions is what can cause some serious damage to your confidence,
After a trip like that messing your mood up with a trade missed (which we know isn't the worst thing possible) is the last thing you want to do, well except the case where you want to blame your "pickiness" for the missed trade.
Get my point?
Just relax bro, let your thoughts flow, make a decision and embrace it no matter the outcome...you'll do yourself a world of good.
Regards,
Ghous.
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If I was in this trade I would have booked some profit straight away at where price currently is, the end of that long wick of the failed bearish pin bar should catch your attention straight away...
1.74 might still be on the cards but such an anticipation shouldn't have balls big enough to cause you harm, right Bryan?
Hey Bryan,
Hope all went well with this trade of yours,
That wick did prove to be a hurdle a touch too big eh? Needless to say we weren't surprised by the move were we?
g
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There is a indicator there to download. (P.S. This is not my website just something I came across on the net while search for a pattern indicator)
What do you think?
yeah if you're one of those who enjoy going deep into the world of price action, you'll notice several such patterns and bar shapes and the specific locations where they work.
R&D is probably the best thing you can look forward to after mastering the basics....key phrase here being "after mastering the basics"
g
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The problem is that people get so caught up in the cool names and spotting the patterns (something our brain loves to do) that they dont really consider the underlying movement. What does the candle actually mean? What is the market doing? Where might it go, and where might it stall?
Stick to the basics, friend.
2 of the very best advices Joel. Great post.
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The problem with trading dailies is you will never build a small account up just trading them, there are simply not enough trading oppurtunites, for account building you need to get down to 1hr or 15min charts, where you can get trades every day. However to get down to them you need to move down from daily to learn pa and gain experience. So it looks like
Get these thoughts out of your mind Tac, you're completely underestimating the higher tfs.
More money lies with the lower time frames but that doesn't come anywhere close to suggest that you cannot build on a small account using dailies. In fact building on an account is much more easier to do on the higher time frames provided you're right on your mind.
Sorry if I appeared a bit rude,
Just had to get this across...
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This one I preferred not to trail, but to take full profit.
Mainly because I was against the main trend, but also because this area is a quite strong support, now also double bottom with strong divergence on daily.
Ben
I really want to get out of this post and pat you on the back Ben,
This is how when and where one starts to "get" it.
Congrats on making to it.
"Staying there" is another thing and your next big challenge...
Keep it up bro...
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So i have this thing in my mind that these 2 (1 before LONDON and next one with TOKYO+LONDON) hours set the tone for the day and at LONDON close the trend of the day gets dry. i let it effect my trades.
what do you think guy's.
Morning Nasir,
You could have that kind of stuff in your mind sure, but just don't add it to your "confluence box" yet...
Ghous.
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I think not, cause there seems to be some conflict btw Daily & Weekly.
Daily Pin bar + 50% ret. Looked like PPZ there too.
Stochastic oversold too.
However, weekly had that huge ass engulfing.
My thoughts were that since weekly was saying "down" chances are that the tide would be pushing downward.
Hence, Daily Pin... not so good.
Comments please! Noob here
Daily on left. Weekly on right.
CADJPY; Daily (left); Weekly (right)
Hi Cyrus,
We want our pin bars to protrude away from the vicinity of PA, meaning they need to stand out from the charts and not be tucked up amongst the bars next to it.
So location was a concern,
Furthermore, look what the pin bar was headed straight into? Yes you guessed it. A distinct ppz.
A quick break would have given the setup more weight, but clearly the pin bar high and the other high that lined up with it proved to be a major hurdle given that they were right on a responsive ppz.
Wouldn't rate that as even a B setup...
Ghous.
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yeah nervous now!
Ok - swing low and major historical ppz and with the daliy trend
good shape pin in terms of longish nose but I accept that the positioning of it is't perfect at the body is almost the same size as the previous bar!
1st trouble at 0.9880 2nd at1.009 3rd at 1.03
I like the levels but I would probably like to see a better defined bar (stronger PA) which is why I am trying to get feedback on whether I am looking trades that aren't there!!
You've nailed quite a few good trades recently Salisa,
You would know yourself that this one doesn't come anywhere close to those trades, and that realization is so very important,
Enough said...
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Thanks folks - you wait for long enough and you start to see things!!
Exactly,
And that can happen if you're too "involved".
Being out is just as important as being in and is an essential element in your trading...
Just sit back, know your trades and cherry pick them as they come along...it doesn't get any simpler than this...for the person in the right frame of mind.
You've done it in the past Bro, it's one of those times where you need to shake your head and get back on track.
Ghous.
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small buob but already back down there in last 5mins...
But really key level.. this level goes back to Dec2008 where weekly reject hard off twice...
Then back to May2008 where it killed a move up... and rejected off it..
One to watch! Watching the 4Hr and setting some alerts below this level because it really has very little below to stop..
I wouldn't bother friend,
At this time of the trading week, messing around with the 1H can be dangerous,
Outside bars and to a great extent all our PA bars require "momentum" on their side to be able to work like we want them to...
And this basic element can become scarce late on a Friday,
You would be hoping against hope to see some bulls fire off this time of the trading week...of caorse that's not impossible but it all comes down to the very basic qs....are you ready to bet your money on an event like this to occur? I for one would answer this with a big bold NO
Ghous.
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Not at that time of night... That would have been one to consider, but to grab these in such a tight range, I would have like that OB to poke down outside of the range into the neighborhood of 1.4200. See the blue line and 'X'.
It went nice too. interestingly, to the Bemac 61.8% ICCE...
...
I c,
Thnx.
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I saw the Round Top on MACD in 1H and a little pin bar ( in GU specially).
but i was not still in a mood to trade but when i saw the crazy pins in 4H (also GU hitting the 89 ma and coming back) and checked the news (Existing Home Sales (us))
couldn't hold myself.
something wrong with it.
Nah!
Was just confirming that it wasn't a J16 pa based trade...
G.
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I have entered the trade based on triple bottom with strong bullish divergence (I like these setups), and a BUOB off a round number.
So we have the combination of triple bottom, divergence, round number and BUOB.
I was trailing my stops with the BAT on the 1H, till I saw that HUGE BUB. So I decided I will go down to the 30min and placed my stop at a round number, which is a PPZ. When I saw that 30min bearish pin bar I knew I don't want to be in this trade anymore.
My 12 winner out of 13 trades!! But...
Absolutely great going Ben.
It's great when you can get your mind to do exactly what should be done eh?
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Sometimes I feel I get too much braggart. I don't mean that...but it's a weird situation. I am 16 years old (yea, there is someone younger than you here LOL) hardly 2-3 months trading and its too easy.
I see many people over another forum crying after years of time and money wasted.
At least I got rid of those PONZI schemes and MLMs I was into
I think it's the hand of god Johnny introduced me to this thread! I'm sure.
Ben
16?? Yeah well, knew I wouldn't be the youngest here forever...but never thought it would be a 16 year old beat me at it.
I don't know what else to say Ben except that you fascinate me...you're way beyond your years.
Ghous.
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Lemme know if you can ship a couple of those to me here,
We don't get these beauties out here
just a few eery snake charmers selling WC rat snakes with their teeth ripped off with a stick moved swiftly right across their mouths while keeping them shut with the other hand, claimed as being "Charmed" and bites "spiritually effaced of venom"....(jeez, rat snakes aren't even venomous to start with)
Thought you should know this jim
G
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hey, thanks. MLMs are not schemes, they are completely legal. I have been marketing an Israeli lottery company...even done quite well. I was advertising myself and spent time with potential leads over the phone - but guess what....no one in my team worked, and they all just cried that they are loosing money. At a certain point I just couldn't tell people that it worth to join after all the other people loosed their money. I decided to quit during the time I was still making a few buck profit from it each month. It was taking all my time....I hated...
MLMs sure make money....the problem lies in the fact that it's not for everyone not because they fail to come to terms with the correct mental state or skill or anything...it's just purely for the talented and those naturally good at it.
Not everybody posses the required "convincing power" that you need in this biz, and unfortuntaley no matter how many e-books you read your knowledge will hardly ever influence your success.
A very close friend of mine has his legs in up to 5 different ML and down line building programs and he makes a fortune...a real fortune with them.
HYIPs are illegal, yes. they are ponzis, yes. they are scams, yes. they go down soon, yes. But again I know a few that make a "living" off hyips. One of them tells me the biz is more abt the "feel" and the incorrect/correct decision of entry and exit that determines your success, this he says "is very much like your (that is me) forex trading, where it all just comes down to experience.
Bottom line:
Money is out there, and it really could be at a hand stretch...for ones who know themselves well.
g
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Did u notice how good ghous, mike w & mbqb11 are? except for ghous (who is turning 20 next January--- welcome to the "20's club" ghous ), all of them are in their 20's only.
I am ABSO-FU**ING-LUTELY hating to wave my teenage liFe good bye.
jeez.
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Hi all, 1st post. On my 4H EURGBP I don't have a PB. I have a bullish candle. My charts reflect USA EST close (assume its New York). Any advice much appreciated.
Hi Grousman,
And welcome aboard!
You need to trade what you see...
Just like you don't to see the 4H pin bar on your chart that Jarroo has he might not be able to spot a 4H pin bar you see on your platform, so it all balance out at the end of the day.
Because of different opening and closing times of the bars at various broker platforms and different data feeds such discrepancies do occur, some will use multiple broker platfforms to solve the problem but like I said it all balances out in the end,
All the best,
Ghous.
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If you mean risking 150 pip loss for 20 pip profit, as the first initial setting, it is not my cup of tea. I think it is worth only if you believe the probability of initial winning is higher than 90% (80% is not enough).
The way I see it, a break should yield more than just 20 pips Kk,
Looking at it closely I see that the 95.5 ppz is more of a "to the pip" ppz than a really thick "zone"
Jarroo as usual made a great point in that the 9400 ppz is a real strong one which the BUOB/PB is off of.
The close could have been better but clearly the location is what stands out,
If I were to take this trade I would certainly be aiming for at least 95.5 while keeping it nice and tight.
Bear in mind that we do have a left eye poking out of the ppz which could aid in smaller stop placement too maybe...
g
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I will use them as information for a trade I am currently in. A strong BUB, BEB generally means (as per James) we should see at least a test of that bars high. Good place to watch and see how things develop. It's all little information to make up the book were reading
Mike
I should really line that up to dig into after cracking open the IB nut,
Thnx Bro,
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Wondering if any of you took this. I did and and it is working out nice sitting at about 1:1 already. The way I looked at it was 1.75 was a huge huge level if you zoomed out. the overall trend was down. It broke past 1.75 pulled back and pinned (kind of small) below that level. The pin was at 61.8 Fib. Once again what I think helpe dthis trade was trading toward the least point of resistance and 1.75 was HEAVY! Let's see how it plays out.
if i may say this is something similar but did't work. Any comments.
This is what you will really have to understand Nasir,
A good pin bar is just isn't any bar with a long nose at one end,
Factors like "a large nose" a "smallish body"(gap between open and close) and most importantly "protruding out of the vicinity of PA" i.e poking out from the range of the bars right next to it...can be extremely crucial.
+
...obviously what Joel said...
g
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This was one I noticed. I'm not THAT sure about the PB quality (probably a bigger poodle? =P) but it was off weekly Pivot + PPZ congestion.
Limit placed --> total pip risk aft spread = 25pips. Ran up 300pips... could have t/p @ 8400 the week after for a decent high 200+ pips?
You need to be extremely careful with these pull back entries...
A limit order towards the left eye is barely ever sufficient.
What's the point in trying to force yourself to 1:1 when you're compensating the MM risk with being overly aggressive?
I don't attempt these pull back entries anymore but I guess the safest way to play them is to wait for the break up first
I know that wasn't the main point of your post, but still felt I had to get this across Cyrus.
Happy trading,
G
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recently I added a chart grid builder that you can set to display horizontal lines at round numbers at desired intervals. I kinda like it and is uncanny just looking back and seeing how price is attracted to these areas, even on daily charts.
but Im not sure if I am going to keep them on my charts, I kinda like things clean and not alot of clutter on my charts, im not sure at this stage. I notice alot of you here dont really have grid lines on your charts
I used to have grids before,
But I hate the way they remind me of "math" got rid of them...
If you don't suffer from mathophobia you could have them in a color that blends in nicely into your background and doesn't stand out to clatter your charts, I agree they can be useful...
g
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Didn't have any trades today...boring charts, so I went out most of the day.
Here is an update to this breakout trade, which I am carrying from last week.
This is a clear pattern IMO, broke that heavy support area, pulled back and formed a pin bar. Basically that isn't a beauty pin, and I wouldn't play it alone....but the location here was more important for me. I believe I have placed my stop far enough into the traffic. That old heavy support will do it's resistance work now, IMO. So I have confidence in this trade. I have also the 365ema,...
Your charts are improving by the day Ben,
So much so...I have to scroll back to the beginning of the post every time I see your chart/s...they strongly remind me of Mike's,
Nice, Clean and dirt simple stuff every time you come up with one.
This is how we do it folks!
g
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not a fan of EJ. Looking at the daily, it isnt definitively with the trend - although it could be! Looks like it could easily head south still.
Plus, that big PPZ doesnt wanna be broken just yet, although there is clearly upwards pressure there - maybe a break above those two pins (on the 1H) could convince me otherwise though
(keep in mind it is a zone, but I have it drawn in as a line for some unknown reason)
*double edit*
id be careful of AUDCAD too, it is still ranging and...
The only thing I didn't like abt Ej was the close. It "should" have been a bit higher to give the buob a more authoritative look or let's say given the location I was expecting this to happen,
But I am in anyways...
g
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I am buying EJ around 134.50. SL 133.95.
Also buying AJ 78.90. SL 78.30.
Hey fxvision,
It would be great if you could come up with charts and explain why you want to enter,
posts like the one quoted attract only "signal seekers" which we all know isn't in their best favor,
Most newbies don't know what to do, and by running an "explanatory" thread we try and show them the way...the right way.
Don't take me wrong mate, I love your charts and respect your position as a trader, I just fear for a lot of "lurkers" down there who might want to buy Ej around 134.5 because..."well...errrmmm...Fxvisio n thinks it's a good trade!"
Just a brotherly advice Bro.
Ghous.
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Its formed a sweet bullish looking bar on the hourly, so it will probably work out for you if it can bust the highs around 134.85... there seems to be a big brown bear sitting in the middle of the path.
Just meant it wasnt for me
I understood that part,
Nothing can be more disastrous than going for a trade without the utmost of comfort.
I know you too well Joel.
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Sure thing. A nice 50% retrace of the 4h BUOB to 134.40. The rejection in 134.80 had sucked in the sellers. But all that has happened really was just a retest of former resistance around 134.50 now support. Keep things simple.
.
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Ugly pin off my PPZ and trendline. Looked kind of like a flag to me so I have been waiting for it to break. This is NZDJPY. AUDJPY had something very similar, but I liked this one better.
the break confirmation instance was when price initially made it's way out of the upper trend line and then failed to go below it on the retest. This is when it gave off the pin bar whose break is a sensible way of taking these breakout trades...
Delaying your entry further than this can cause you to miss out the ride over the "initial volatility" which is often enough to help price "shoot" in the breakout direction. The point is that there is more to it than the missed out pips, a late entry is well capable of making a pretty good setup appeal to your account as a bitter gourd,
g
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By the way, I am saving a log of all my trades.
As long as I have a plan, reasons, knowledge of support, resistance and price action, I am never wrong.
I save a log of all my trades in separate folders, with my thought process, conditions, pictures size of bar, etc.....and at the end of every trade I go and write my results plus comments and what I have learned.
That trade is on my demo, so it's ok whatever will be the result, I'll learn from it.
My plan is to save enough money so when I'm ready, I will be able...
Don't they like tie you up by not allowing you to withdraw all the money till "0" account balance?
sheesh!
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Just checking on the chart you presented on this EJ trade. It seems you use 135.20 area as your first Take profit point. Why you don't use 135 round number? I think 135 is round number is hard to penetrade than the 135.20.
Can you share how you justify your first TP point?
Thanks!
PippingM
Hi PM,
135 was on my mind, in fact this probably was the single most important factor that kept it from breaking hard straight away to the upside "jarroo style"
the regions marked on my chart were those that I spotted at the first glimpse without looking to the extreme right at price levels,
However I was intent on letting the trade run until it could break the left eye of the BUOB/PB (the ppz which the buob was off of was another factor that mad me anticipate this) which it obviously didn't and more importantly the 4H was able to close above the 135 with serious authority. That's when I began anticipating that price should now hit at least the first marked region, as it did I moved my SL, took some off, set the Tp at the second yellow ppz and went off for a nap,
Simple stuff when you start believing in yourself
g
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I am telling you, I did a little research, read smart guys posts, built my method (or their method, lol), and apply it. It is really simple.
Trading is not a complicated thing at all. I really enjoy it.
I do not understand why it is so difficult to so many.
I am doing a very simple thing. Believe me I am the last one to be a genius here..be sure about that.
IMO, the trader is the only one that can disturb himself making killings in this market....
Maybe we can derive something for this...
Maybe it's the kids that can trade better than adults, nice clean minds, free from excessive "ifs" and "buts" and "so whats" and "what ifs"...
The simplicity of trading is so obvious...it in fact is what gets a lot...a lot of wannabe traders...
Remember Jim's son, and each and every outside bar that he took on Eur/Gbp this year...I sure could have never done that...I mean I am not talking from my death bed but I am getting old...old enough to wave teenage life good bye and honestly the way I saw trading back at 17 is not how I look at it today....I sometimes try and struggle to keep my head as clear as it was back then. ...
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You are old? You must be kidding me. You and me not THAT different. Our minds as well.
Maybe the day when little kids will work instead of the parents in house is not that far
But yes, your words make sense man.
Ben
yeah I am not old, but by the time you wave your teenage life good bye, you'd be 4 years deep in experience...that is a blessing...make good use of it Ben,
I got a part of it too...and was fortunate to put it good use.
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we have certainly been blessed with some setups of late peeps.
did anyone else get this one(gbpaud)?
this is a classic example how understanding orderflow and what traders are doing and why, will allow you to trade that little better.
not only was this pin with the trend,it traded back to a key level and then broke resistance sucking in buy orders.......then bam,you get the classic dump,caused by buyers covering longs-forces price down even harder due to newly initiating shorts and covered longs.
gotta love that.very cheeky
take care all.
Great chart and trade mate!
Love'm in their simplest of forms, the charts.
g.
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Just want to confirm your trade management on this EJ trade, you simply try to minimize the trade with SL at the left eye of the BUOB/PB, (you concern 135 is kind of strong that might not allow you to clear this. In fact entry break was kind of weak as we go down lower timeframe) However, the 4h bar close above 135 so you can stick your gun and wait it reach the first TP1. Do I rephrased it right?
I sometimes confused whether we should respect PPZ or Round number. As Rac style he does not care...
Quote:
Thank you for the chart and comment.
Just want to confirm your trade management on this EJ trade, you simply try to minimize the trade with SL at the left eye of the BUOB/PB, (you concern 135 is kind of strong that might not allow you to clear this. In fact entry break was kind of weak as we go down lower timeframe) However, the 4h bar close above 135 so you can stick your gun and wait it reach the first TP1. Do I rephrased it right?
That's correct.
Quote:
I sometimes confused whether we should respect PPZ or Round number. As Rac style he does not care too much about the round number but only the ppz. That makes me confused and I thought you also do the same too.
Does he? as far as I know he's a RN fanatic.
Anways IMHO both, ppzs and round numbers can be extremely rewarding when respected and extremely punishing if disrespected. I don't think you should weigh them against each other on the scale of importance.
Yes I was wary abt the 135 round number, but the ppz right below made me believe price had a fair chance of holding up. You need not look at it as if I was in any way expecting the ppz to hold anymore than the round number. Since there wasn't a clearly defined ppz at 135 (it was rather around 134.5) If anything it was the round number psychology that could have stopped price,
The odds had lined up well, and price eventually did bust through it, 2 of the most important ones were 1) Strength of the setup. 2) lack of a defined ppz at 135.
generalizing a statement like "ppzs are more/less valid than round numbers" from an observation can be pretty damaging to say the least.
g.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Yes, that's the one I meant. Looking at it now, I suppose a good way to manage it would have been this:
1. Place entry stop below the bars, stop above.
2. Next day your trade triggers, but as the day ends in a bin bar, move the stop loss 10 pips above the newly formed pin bar.
3. Stop gets triggered making a loss of about 79 pips instead of 200-something pips which was the size of the bars.
An even better and agressive way would have been to put a stop and reverse above the pin bar and take a long trade I wonder if anyone really did that....
The only time I am ok with a loss is when price never reaches the first region I mark as "trouble zone".
Think abt it. You take a trade and know where it should first find trouble at. You are not wrong and price does just that. Would it be ok with you to let price come back and hurt you, knowing it has the potential to? It's more like taking your face forward to a vixen of a gf and inviting her to slap you.
IMHO, you should reserve your minimal losses for times when price will do the unexpected, like I said maybe reverse much before your first marked trouble zone, or a news spike...
The Usd/Cad BEOB which was followed by the pin bar is by no means a looser unless you're practicing really crazy trade management.
A better approach would be to take some off (or at least move the stop to BE on the beob) at the ppz level Joel marked where the pin bar formed,
and probably treat the pin bar as a separate trade altogether...
g.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
The downside won't be a drive on the highway either...1625 is a holding a tonne of bar highs, but yeah given that it would be with the overall trend could be a fair play specially if those bar highs turn out to be sweet marshmallows...we'd like that but won't anticipate it.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Spending your first ever hour here at FF with the J16 thread...you can't ask for a better start buddy!
Nice clean chart, and sensible expectations,
Some of us including great pros like to to do that, analyze what price should be doing in the long term, but make sure you back yourself well with solid PA as and when it comes along,
If you haven't gone through the first pages of the thread please do, you won't regret I promise.
Welcome on board!
g.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Moved up a little. Daily suggests a move up? Not big PB's but lends weight to the argument. Waiting. Question: At what stage would you consider it as having broken current resistance? E.g at the close of a 1Hr candle etc or do you wait for definitive PA?
To confirm the resistance level broken:
I like to see price close beyond the level with authority. Initially a pure break by "X" number of pips was all I needed but got burnt a lot many times catching false breaks.
To Enter breakout trades:
I like to wait for 2 things,
1) retest of the level
2) PA.
cheers,
Ghous.
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Oh man, u reminded me of my-stupid-internet-disconnection-while-trading incident.
i was short eur$ too around the same area as yours (1.4348, not an exclusive j16 trade btw; an intended short-term, 15-30 pip trade but-i'm-flexible-if-ever). i was up by about 12 or 13 pips, but i kept getting disconnected. i risked by trailing my stop fairly tightly ("luckily", i got the chance to trail my stop in between disconnections" ) to BE + 2 (i was forced to do so because of the multiple disconnections) --- because i saw a potential...
lol
I am pretty used to stuff like this myself, sometimes the electricity, other times my internet connection, other times my pc itself, and a couple of times the broker platform...
It's amazing how everything seems to be going against you when you want to really trade. lol
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
I am out of it Oltciter for BE. Not recommending you to do the same though, I found a slight dearth of momentum, which for Break out trades is an unacceptable scenario for me.
Cheers,
Ghous
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
I was in this trade also but closed it soon after 20+ pips and entered short cause price pulled back to TL it broke earlier tested it and then continued down.
Presence of 50% Fibonacci just above and a PPZ made it look more strong.
And how the hell did you get that PAYPAL account???
Quote:
But never put a tag on your soul.
Agreed.
Quote:
And how the hell did you get that PAYPAL account???
I was obviously just kidding around, wouldn't have put up my paypal account if it was real anyways...
g.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Thanks for the prompt reply. How much weight do you put on the divergence (I do not use this, maybe I should?). I think the divergence I refer to is the opposing slope on the MACD (am I confusing myself here!!!)
Not a lot because it can never convince me to enter/exit a trade, but it sure is another tool you can add to your "confluence" box, so that when it appears it merely adds to the odds going in your favor on a potential trade entry,
Just took two trades over the last two weeks. +220 and +43 respectively.
The second trade had gone up over 300 pips and, not being able to properly monitor it, I stupidly let it turn into a +43. What can you do though, a wins a win. On to the next trade.
Happy weekend to all!
Good stuff Bro,
Care sharing the setups you took?
Ghous.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
That's going to entirely depend on traded volume of the instrument involved.
If it trades 4000 contracts a minute, its a minute chart. If it trades 4000 contracts a day, its a daily chart.
(from this, you can probably figure out why forex tick charts arent really that useful)
For ES, volume is highest in the first and last half hours (about 250k), with a low of about 100k for the half hours around noon. So a 4000 tick chart is anywhere between 30 seconds and a minute or so.
Now, YM is about 130k daily...
Should be easy enough to go from there...
Thnx for attending to Turnip's query Joel,
Very informative as usual,
g.
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My university starts from tomorrow and I'll be there for just as much time as I am at home trading and posting/reading at FF.
Besides I am commencing some of my trading research projects that I've lined up for quite some time. Whatever extra time I have I aim to utilize it looking beyond what I know into the unseen and unknown to discover the true world behind those price bars, so obviously I won't be just as available as up till now,
I'll obviously drop back for a while here and there, can't miss out on any bit of Benji's growth, or STO's addictive posts or Tia's and Joel's informative posts, or jarroo's charts or for that matter the surprise Jim's abt to come up with, some time this week.
Happy pipping and posting guys,
Your's
Ghous.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Nasir - maybe this pair, the 4H is just about to close. I will have a look at it & check for confluence etc.
I don't see it off anything at all.
As has been said before, we do not sit on the edge of our seats looking for excuses to enter, we rather sit back on the couch and wait in ambush for only the very good ones.
The levels which interest me on the pair are labelled on the chart below.
g.
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ok here we go. someone wake ghous up cause hes gonna like this.
i have a lot of things that interest me.
most make money. not all but most.
i have been a reptile nut all my life.
i work with pythons and these are ball pythons.
i work for years with genetics to pruduce rare snakes.
some people that lead this research make millions but its all consuming for them. its just a fun hobby for me and my son and its going to easily put him thru college.
the white snakes are a 3 year project for me and my son. they are not as super rare as they...
i am here Jim, was abt to log off, as it's 5 am here in the morning (not to sleep but to get ready for school) but saw you online and just hoped for something like this to come.
Congragulations once again,
BTW Mike at constrictors says leucies can only be produced from a fire, or is it only for the black eyed leucies or some other specialized leucistic variation that he is talking about?
g.
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Ahhh....Newport Beach....I lived at Whale Beach for two years and spent some quality time in the beer garden at the Newport boozer.
Plenty snakey around where I am now...had a few close calls with browns last year..my better half actually had one strike at her but missed. Had a baby brown slither through my legs as I was doing a pumpover in the winery one day...I just just put a big jug in front of it and it obediently slithered in and I carried it across the road and let it go in a field.
Not fair Dave,
You gotta do more justice to your real talent...with the sharkies,
strike while the iron is still hot bro
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
But its not a PM cause i don't wan't anyone to feel like i am feeling right now.
It's all gone. All profits of 1 month in 2 Days....
I was watching that change anxiously Nasir,
James16 says : "the only thing that can stop you from becoming a good trader is the grey matter between your ears"
You don't feel bad because you lost. You don't feel bad because you got rid of those mas. You don't feel bad cuz it's one of the first few of the losses you've take with this system.
You feel bad because the fulfillment of your extra ordinary dream required you to only be extra ordinary lucky.
If you built anything exaggerated on an extra ordinary start, you were always a strong candidate for this kind of rude awakening - I say this because I've been in that same position.
Let's do some math here:
you converted $90 into $365 which was beyond anything called "ordinary gains"...300%+ in a month. Not bad for a start...
but tell me this: What kind of "sensible" money management would like you to go looking for such returns anyway? Shouldn't you have set any earthly limit to the profits you were making? To the huge number of trades you were taking?
Not having a proper plan to accomplish an extra ordinary target (of building something valuable on a $90 account) was always going to come back and hurt you pretty bad. You're still fortunate it didn't stab you right away and blew your 90 bucks off.
The point is, It's not the pins that have stopped working, it's not the markets that have gone crazy, you're missing something else.
Money management is probably the next best department one need's to gain expertise on after consistently showing trades the green end of the picture.
Just hang on in there bro, and use this experience as an eye opener. It's only the rare 5% that will ever get out of it, and it's just these 5% that will truly call trading a "day job busting" experience.
Ghous.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
How do you normally trade a chart like the one above on GBP USD 4 H?
Good question.
1) you look for PA
2) you look for confluences
3) you empty your pockets
4) you spread your odds on the battle field
go through the first pages of the thread and get these bullets out from there, and then if need be you can always post around with a 'little' more specific question.
g.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
I am new to FOREX trading and here too. I just want to thank you for all your work and I think this thread is really great - James, your work is great! It is already a good feeling that I know how easy to loose money is and this is not a gambling. You, with this thread, contributed to this.
So I am trying to post something here, I hope it will work out. Funny, I am not even sure how to post charts properly as Thumbnails. Could anyone suggest me that please?
Anyway, this is daily GU. I can recognize any PA patterns here, if not...
Hi Zoli AKA Zol,
Quote:
Am I reasoning well? What did I miss? How should I have approached?
You're missing something for sure - - PA.
i.e a price action signal, so although you may expect it to go down make sure you don't short unless you get a PA signal. (This is what we do here, wait for PA)
Now what exactly is a 'PA signal' you'll need to go through the first few hundred pages to divulge that for you
All the best,
and let us know if we can be of any further assistance to you.
g.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Also just noticed 3 consecutive highs at 6894 then a 6891. Any significane?
Yes they can be of great significance Grouseman, although Nu isn't a perfect example, watch out for them any and everywhere for their abilities to restrain price.
Ghous.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Hey just wondering what you guys think of this 8hr pin on GBP/USD:
-Its with the trend
-Moving away from big PPZ at 1.64(small round number too)
-61.8% Fib
-200 & 150 EMA Confluence
-Double Top
Downside is:
-Price is choppy atm...seems to be ranging
-No Divergence
-Downtrend line from 1.7000 seems to be pierced
-Going against weekly pin
Seems good, but maybe not good enough. One thing that worries me is the fact that its a slow Monday. There might not be enough momentum to provide a real break.
Any opinions on my analysis is appreciated....
Looks good if it can break hard, for some reason markets have been drowsy all day today.
g.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Labor Day in the US which means New York traders are off. That also means that after the end of the London session in an hour or so there will be very little activity and so probably no hard break.
I'm turning off the charts and heading out until the liquidity returns to the market tomorrow.
Ah,
thanks Tia, no wonder my touch trades are a mess today
Glad I quickly withdrew out of most of my positions early in London...
ghous,.
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Joelcf, SupremeChaos, StoragePro thanks a lot guys for answering my post. Have been reading your post a couple of times to let it sink in.
Anyone out there watching gold lately? I've been watching gold since it breaks 1000. There were two pinbar forming around the 1000 level. Any significant meanings of these two bars?
Nothing fancy, a typical case of contradictory signals...just mere indecision.
A pin appeals the most when it breaks hard and shows price direction, however if a break of a pin is followed by an opposing pin we know that more than anything else it's a signal for us to cover our positions (if wer'e already short/long from the initial pin bar) and to stay out until a more clearer setup appears,
cheers,
Ghous.
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hey guys I have another issue that I'm struggle to understand ,I know it is something obvious that I am missing.
could somone explain for me why hedge funds or bank run stops?
I am just confused about how moving the price through stop levels benefits the institution that is doing it.
thanks in advance.
PS: I think I have a mental problem with this new stuff about order flow,about market microstructure,I think this is about understanding the curency market,not only to look at charts but to be able to read deeper from the chart, and to find...
Hi Triger,
Abt the first part of your post I am know way equipped to answer it, perhaps some others here would respond to it or you could pm Ronald Raygun with these institutional trading questions. He's head first into this stuff at the moment...
Abt the second part:
here's what I feel:
Mark Douglas has explained trading psychology like none other in his book "trading in the zone", i.e if you understand and apply the concepts elaborated you're a lot more than half done in your pursuit of becoming a successful trader. So...uh, oh...wait! Isn't that the holy grail then? You get it for a few bucks, pour your eyeballs over it...and there you are as clean a trader as you ever wanted to be!! Yeah that's it!!!
In reality no it isn't it. Understanding the mechanics of price action and being able to price like a 'book' as they say is no where near possible by going through a thread, exactly like achieving the right frame of mind can never be as simple as going through a book. What 'Trading in the zone' did for me was that it hinted me as to what it is like to think like a 'trader in the right frame of mind'....I am far FAR FAR away from actually being there.
Skfx's thread (if that's what you're referring to) was just meant to show you the true light and install a sign board for rambling thoughts.
My advice to you would be not think 'real' hard over this but rather just let it come to you, you do that by focusing on the stuff you know (J16 or any other method you follow) and keeping an eye on how and why and where price reacts.
The more you go looking for it, the harder it will get, and the longer it will take...believe me.
Like SKfx said...it took him hundreds and thousands of screen hours to get the hang of it, it took Jim years and several blown accounts spread over HUGE $$$$. Point is, trading isn't simple nor is it a skill attainable in a very short time. and nothing legitimate out there can claim to make it any different for you, except that it can 'guide' you and while you're at it you know you're doing the right thing. Jim and the other folks here on the thread are doing exactly that so are several others across different threads all over FF and elsewhere...no one can nor will ever tell you in any form of an article exactly what lies behind the bars you see on your chart if you get my point...
Cheers,
Ghous,
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thanks scot for your replay, and I'll like to too hear what joel has to say, I think he he working at some bank
thanks ghous for your encuragement, actually "Trading in the zone" is in my list of reading.
Hey ghous like to see you back here, who it's your studying?
thanks shermentor, liquidity is the key word here
Going for my bachelors at a good university here in Pakistan, and it's because it's good that I have to commit myself to it so much. And over that I have some very important experiments to execute in my strategies in addition to trade the conventional stuff - so at the end of the day it was the huge number of hours I used to spend here which had to take the hit.
g.
__________________ A loss troubles you the most when you least expect it...
Price pulls back to rac's favor retrace, 4hr ppz with fib confluence.
Then we are blessed with a nice PA off of that area. Everything looks kosher so we are ready for ... Kaaabooom.
.
A question for you Mark,
I passed on the Usd/cad despite acknowledging that ppz. wouldn't that fall into a >3 touch trade? I see 5 bar lows right next to the one I assume you took. (the last one before price bowed down to you)
I've busy working on my touch trades recently so would really appreciate some feedback.
g.
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