Interesting discussion going on regarding R:R, risk, account growth etc. Just checking in after 3 days of golf, and I am burnt three different ways - so I will be brief.
My first observation is that *clarity* is observed in the rear view mirror. You have to have passed the destination to recognize it.
So - I listen intently to those who are further down the road. They know.
Second - although we are all different, the basics we discuss here tend toward universal applicability. There is a right way to get started.
Last - spreadsheets are poison to the trader. They get you thinking about all the wrong things, rather on the simple recognition of an A+ trade and the really hard part of having the self control to stick to just these setups.
Off to bed. Tobacco Road GC awaits in the AM !!
Trade smart everyone.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Nice job, all my stuff is 1997-2000 lol, I may update my certs if I have nothing else to do, It just took so long to get them and I dont want to lose it. I still do IT stuff now and then maybe 5 hours a week helping people out and still enjoy the trade.
Good lord. If you have nothing to do, stop by and wash my windows. What are you losing anyway? I had an MCSE, MCSD, and MCT. Pfft. The gleam was off those certs a loonnnggg time ago. Just like a VCP cert is now suffering from.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Been searching around a little on FF and google but haven't found much yet....
Hey Stolli -
There are a number of things that can be done. There is also divergent opinions in the IRS on how Forex trading is hamdled. It is NOT straight up in all cases.
While it is good to get some reading done, the subject is complex and varied - and when your trading begins to generate real income, it gets interesting because of the options you have to form LLC's, Partnerships, etc.
Add in a family and heirs and it gets silly real fast.
So - I always recommend a solid CPA who has broad experience with Forex traders and commodities, stocks and other instruments. He or she can set you up and expose the options to you.
Eventually a Tax attorney would be a great ally. A good CPA works in concert with them. Together they will get you and your family in the best spot - when your assets dictate doing so.
I never think I can handle this on my own. The taxing authorities are in business to take your money, and they are very good at it. They do not play, and neither should any of us.
Of course if you make it in this biz, you can move to Monaco and kiss the US tax wagon goodbye!
Cheers !
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I guess everyone in the US is stupid for paying the taxes... Funny thing is it's the same people HELPING you to learn how to trade. Keep bashing the people that help and see how far that gets you.
Sorry for tossing some grist into the mill Ryan... did not mean to.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
At 10:56 p.m. EDT on July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong descended the ladder of the Apollo 11 lunar module, becoming the first man to walk on the moon.
i was 8 years old and i can still remember the awe i felt watching it.
my father a hardened korean war vet cried like a baby.
i remember being in awe of that also.
Wow - I was just telling my 12 year old I watched it. I was 6. I vividly remember it. And how my Dad said to pay close attention, that we would never, ever see a bigger moment in history unfold before our eyes.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I've been thinking about the best way progress with leaning and practicing the material here. Initially I thought about having a $500 Oanda account and trading that while I learned. However reading through the thread Im wondering if it would be better to demo with a large account for 6-12 months while I save real money to that large account amount. This way I will be trading the same way and seeing the profits/losses as they will be.
I know exactly where you are coming from Tac. I started out (stocks) with real money. No demo. Made some, gave some back. Realized I had no idea what I was doing before any damage was done. I flat out got LUCKY.
It took a long while before I went back live again - and I am very happy I waited. I have not blown up my account, nor suffered a big draw down. (I owe James everything for that!)
Large or small demo - it matters not. I am a BIG believer in what Jim points out over and over again: If you cannot beat the market in Demo, you cannot do it live. Some like the idea of a small grub stake to learn off of. I do not - I simply will not pay tuition like that. I am not saying it is wrong, but why lose a nickel until you've proven yourself in a demo? (Just my 2 cents).
Quote:
The question is what is descent amount to start trading with given that I will be sticking to dailies and wont be living off or withdrawing any of the funds (i will be compounding). I earn descent money so can save quite a bit in a year. I would like to be able to trade full time maybe in 6-8 years from now. So whats a good amount to have by then to trade full time. I suppose I could work these out based on maybe making 5-10% a month. Just wanted to hear from those who have done it.
Thanks
What is a decent amount?? Well, hard to answer that. It depends on your expectations, wants and needs.
If you make 100K a year now, you'll need at least twice (more actually) that in gross yearly performance. (Taxes, insurance, blah blah).
So to make the math easy - let's assume you need 20K a month gross. At 5% a month (your number), that comes from a 400K nut.
But I am sure you like raises, so, you'll need to grow the account...
And you'll likely want something set aside in case you cannot trade for an extended period of time. Disability insurance SUCKS.
And if your wife is like my wife, she will want a bit of security around the whole thing... more in the bank and perhaps the house paid for...
But this musing is nothing but mental masturbation.
My take on this is simple - when you are set to go, you'll know it. Time is 100% on your side. Use it to the full!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
2. towards the end of that 8 years i knew how to trade but the small account kept me over trading because i did not respect the amount a small move provided. in other words i would watch a win turn into a loss.
Jim -
does anyone ever get their mind right over a small start? I definitely see the problem people would run into over and over again.
Why is it that nearly everyone discounts the time element needed to get compounding to work? Time is the one commodity we all have *in abundance*, yet the very real thing is that we all seem to ignore it.
The impact of losses - no matter how small at the start are horrific in nature over time to the bottom line!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Lots of waiting for me so far this week. One loss on my 4H demo and a break even (small loss..my break even stops are usually 5-10 pips behind BE) on the daily UJ.
I am being patient. I hardly trade as it is, but that constant state of readiness and watching can be frustrating and exhausting. That's the sniper rifle for you. I know Ryan regularly watched 5M charts for a whole week without taking a trade.
Plenty of time for education and research.
Summer time is vacation time...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
So what's the deal a real ECN on MT4? so small spreads plus commission? SOrry Ill go to their website, but wanted to hear another view point.
Spreads are smaller than a traditional MT4 borker - and they vary slightly from moment to moment. I've seen E/U at 0 and no more than 2.5. If you look at the website, the spreads are right on the Forex page. Spreads can widen a lot before news, but that is a bank and liquidity thing, not a MBT thing.
There is commission - but that is not bad either. At the end of the day I am looking for execution, and I get that with them. I am not sure how micro lots (fractional mini's really) work out - but I trade mini's and I've had no problems with fills. Standard lot size is mini (10K).
With everything there are trade offs - the rollover costs are higher on MBT - it is the way they pay their liquidity providers.
EDIT --
BTW, it is a myth that ECN's are 'the best'. It is an option that works for the right situation, but a more retail style model like FXDD or FXCM works great too. It depends on what you want. Now if MBT would figure out how to add Futures, Stocks and options to MT4, that'd be cool...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Comparing to size traded by hedge funds, investment banks this private money changing hands is at the best miniscule.
Is like to pour a pint of beer into the river and then trying to take cup few meters down to taste it :-)
That was a good one. Into the bog 'o tricks it goes!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
The Ban's lifted and he is posting on his silent service thread.
A great trader and a great source of help.
Is it because of his own personal private commercial forum or something that he is abt to begin...?
If you taught me to trade, gave me the methodology and vocabulary, provided me a place to learn, and then gave me senior status to build your credibility,
How would you feel if I started a service and charged to teach what I learned from you?
That is the bottom line.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Two look very good - the first chart is good too - but take note of those bar lows to the left - they will effect your management of the trade. (Move to BE, etc)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
But surely this is all 'open source' material, isn't it?
I mean, I suppose that the descendants of Munehisa could argue the point, but aside from that...?
Not sure about that - but the PF is NOT
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I think I mentioned on my chart, not sure if its the same area as you suggested but Ill move to BE using a EA, as ill be in noddy land, as my grandpa used to say.
Another post gone missing!
Something strange going on.
Yah - I saw that after I asked... Dumb-ass that I am...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Price is drawn to where the action is. Action is where orderflow is. Orderflow is concentrated in certain areas(psychological areas). This is why we are able to profit as chartists from these footprints
Mike
Mike never saw a round number he didn't like!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Just echoing what Mike said, there are a lot of pairs with that top heavy feeling and with divergence too. This is where I've been caught in the past, being so keen for any bar at a good area that I took iffy ones. So I need to be extra careful evaluating the setups when we get to good areas.
This NJ has my attention but I am in two minds about it because it's a small bar. Weekly PPZ though.
EDIT: I just noticed this missed being a pin by 1 pip. Which rules it out for me.
Mine looks different - different Broker. I was hoping that the 4hr bar that is closing in a few minutes would for a 2 bar PB... not likely. I'd like to see a final push up to 63 (dotted line), and then give a breakout or PA south again. Already got my map in place...
What ever.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Welcome to the storm Deepdish... You from Chicago?
Watch out in those areas - it is a little congested and tough to play. Look for areas that have 'space' - as MBQB11 puts it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by deepdish
Hello, I have just opened a demo account. I will make a 4h graph and save in JPEG with a couple of comments before every "trade" i make. I will also follow up with a new graph 1-3 days later with comments about what happened, what I did wrong etc.
Have read a bit in this forum, and decided to give it a shot with the demo account. Anyone care to give their views on my first two "trades"? I have a feeling I was a bit too trigger happy, but gotta start one place to learn this properly.
Graph 1 and 2:
PS: I made a mistake in the graph writing...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
The swissie is one of my favourite crosses. It is just so...schizophrenic.
Sheesh. I'll have to watch how you trade that pair then, 'cuz I suck at that one.
Quote:
quick version: James is the best source of account-building strategies to come out of Texas since Bonnie and Clyde. There is a reason he has so many fans.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
what is this like some kind of riddle or something???
No - Rac posted about reading between the lines on some vids in the J16 forum. Back when I was new there, I could not do that - now I can to an extent.
A little knowledge and experience helped me hear a whole lot better.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Can anyone instruct me why I shouldn't take this 2dBUOVB ?
GregB
Can't tell you what to do, just share an observation. That market is sideways right now. You can trade these - after you are comfortable with A+ setups, and the B setups. These are harder to manage.
If you look at a daily chart, you'll notice that you are close to the top of the current range too.
EDIT -
Oh - There WAS a nice 2 bar PB on the four hour I would have taken IF I WERE'NET TRAPPED IN A FREAKIN' 3 DAY MEETING THIS WEEK.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
So... I have not read through this thread. But I just joined the private forum and am enjoying the content there a lot. What is the opinion of the PF from the people in this thread? Do the people in the PF post here as well? I plan on reading this thread in addition to learning from what is in the member forum...
You bet we post here too. In fact, lately, there has been a lot more activity here than in the PF.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I live in Raleigh, NC. People move here from all over the world because of the climate and job market. People visit here on business or for pleasure - and they play golf here. North Carolina is a kind of Mecca for golfers, we have several world class courses here that the public can play.
Last week was my annual golf week. And as usual, I stayed here and played the courses in the area. And as usual I meet a lot of interesting people from all over. I want to tell you about two of them.
The first guy was a professional Bull Rider. He is all of 5 feet 9 inches tall, 145 lbs - and RANKED number 2 in the world. He is an unimpressive looking fellow, but sports a very impressive resume!
I asked how it was he could jump up on 1 ton of muscle and anger, and wrestle it. He said many people ask him that and it makes him laugh. 'Wrestling' the bull had nothing to do with what he did because he has absolutely no control over what that animal might, or might not do. He explained that the sport is 100% about balance and reacting to what the animal did at any given moment. Interestingly enough, he even noted that there were 'rules' as to what to do and not to do when perched up there in order to have a shot at getting through your 8 seconds.
Three days later at a golf course called "Tobacco Road", which i highly recommend you play if you are in the area, I met Lillian and her husband. They bought a three day golf package in the area. Being that it was in the middle of the week, I congratulated her on being retired and she said, that it was a partial retirement as she is writing her memoirs, and speaks frequently at events around the country. I'm a curious person, and that lead to a long conversation...
As it turns out, she is the first African American woman to attend Harvard Business School, receiving her degree in 1969. For those who may not know (Youngsters, and people from outside the US), that was a period of time of huge social unrest and upheaval over Vietnam and Race. It was an ugly time. It was not fashionable for a Black person or a woman to attend Harvard at that time - and she is both.
She told me a lot of her experience there, but what caught my attention most was that she said that she was very alone there. She was not invited to a study group. She was rarely spoken to. Professors made it difficult for her to participate in class - and much of your grade is based on class participation. She completed her course of study 100% on her own, and it took tremendous internal strength and perseverance to get it done.
I was going to make a few remarks about how these experiences are similar to learning to trade, but that is entirely too narrow minded.
You hear that only 5% ever make it in this game - but I submit to you that 5% or less really make it in life and achieve what they can be - or live their dream. The vast unwashed masses never achieve their simple dreams, much less going beyond their dreams. And none of them ever even recognize that there are dreams undreamed!
Each of us are handed a set of gifts and abilities, as well as weaknesses. We all live in the world together, faced with the same opportunities to put these things to work for us. None of us has no more control over external forces any more than the Bull rider had over his bull. Yet he is a winner. He gets the same opportunities as everyone else in the arena. We, like him can only strive to maintain balance. And follow a few simple rules we all learned when 5 years old.
Like the minority MBA student at Harvard, we are truly alone in our endeavor, and the will to win comes from inside ourselves. Encouragement certainly helps, but ultimately we are in charge of what goes on in between our own ears. No one else can give you your thinking.
Hope. Is there any? Yes, but remember most people fail in the endeavor. They always have, and always will. Most reading this post will likewise have no success. Welcome to reality. Getting our mind in a state that is conducive to real success is not easy, because you have to admit that what you 'know', is wrong - and that is very hard to do. That takes humility and few are those who possess it.
But there is a chance. We can ride the bull and overcome the odds of society. First, others have done it, so you can too. I firmly believe that people have the capacity to change and excel. Second, those that have done it, have chosen to do so. Now, please don't read that and say "I choose, I choose", because remember, 95% fail and never really do.
So how is it that the little shrimp road Bulls? How did Lillian go from a family working as subsistence farmers in South Carolina flout convention and society as a whole and make it to Harvard and finish her MBA?
In a word - Commitment. Being committed is much harder than it seems. A Pig and a farmer go to a BBQ. The farmer eats the BBQ, and the Pig is the BBQ. Which one is committed at this BBQ?
Be the Pig.
Do the things that bring success. Staying up late drinking every night is not committed action, unless you're up for family troubles and liver trouble. Lillian was committed. She lived at Radcliffe because at the time Harvard had no dorms for females. This added a mile walk in the morning and the evening to her day. She was committed - she continued to raise her hand in class, and eventually speak up when a professor ignored her. She was committed - she ignored the incredulous stares and whispering behind her back and forged on. She studied hard and did what was required to be a winner. She had control of Lillian.
The Bull rider was committed. Do you think he family cheered him on? What do you think he heard from them? "You'll get killed or maimed". "Are you crazy?" He had a goal and a dream and kept on going - he is considered the best now.
Neither one of these folks let anything stand between themselves or the dream. Most of all they controlled themselves, because it is easy to take the path of least resistance. These two striking individuals have have won in life - big time. They learned that nothing really stands in their way - except for what goes on inside their head - and they learned to shape their thinking to their benefit.
What about you - have you really come to know what you need to in order to join the 5% ?
Are you already in the 5%? Have you learned how to impart that to others? Can you encourage? Can you reach the true pinnacle, and inspire? Does what you say spur people on and help them to change? Do you lift up or pull down? If everyone were like you, would you really like that world?
Sad to say, most of those here who are good traders are no where near able to do this, and 95% of these never will be. Personal arrogance and viewing others as Amhararets stands in their way of achieving personal greatness. Eventually, these people fail in life itself.
Ultimately, we all become a faded memory, and then are forgotten. All that is left is a tombstone, and as much as you would like to, you don't get to put any final words on it. Others do that for you - or to you.
I had an interesting week. I met some truly great people. And those kinds of people build me up and make me think.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Storage Pro,
Great post, made me pause for thought, I enjoyed and learnt from it too (except even google can't tell me what an Amhararet is!!!).
rikrok
'am haa' rets is an ancient Hebrew term meaning "people of the land". It was used as a term of contempt (although that was not the original meaning of the term), in ancient times to describe people who were unschooled, unlearned or failed to closely observe the great body of Rabbinic tradition that had built up over time. It was a term of religious opprobrium.
The term was once one of general respect - just like the term 'paganus' (dweller in a rural community)where the english term 'pagan' came from as well as "heath" (one who lives out in the field) from where the English word "heathen" comes from.
The real problem is that knowledge and ability often carry with it, arrogance. And no one can really learn good things from the smug or arrogant. Those are like this often view themselves as members of a high priesthood.
What really kills me about people like that is that they generally got this knowledge from somewhere else. You only have what was given.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I passed on the USDCHF trade because I believed it was moving back into too much traffic and would cause problems.
Did you notice this Ghous? Am I being too picky? Is this just part of the weighted risk?
I'm not ghous, but i play him on TV....
I did not take it either - did not form a PB on my feed
Here is the thing -
Whenever we start to learn new things, being careful is normal and advised. Kind of like learning to swim. We stay in the shallow water for a good long while, because we need something under our feet.
Then we learn to swim in the deep water, and a 12 foot pool is great.
But translate that to jumping into the Ocean and 15,000 feet. I know a lot of people who would not jump into the ocean where there is real depth because they are out of their comfort zone.
I jumped in - but then again, I once road an Ostrich, and was bitten by a monkey... (my Dad has been bitten by an Alligator. True.)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
This is public service - be very careful, you could end up like this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw
Management Games : Any of the Sims, Railroads, Roller Coaster Tycoon 3 (A lot lately) Civilisations, Football manager 2009 is prob my fav. Any game that can be paused before bars close = great for trading.
I used to play left4dead and teamfortress2 but it's hard to concentrate on trading when your in the middle of capping the flag. What would happen is I would wake up at 6AM, it would be a S U P E R S L O W London open and then I'd nearly forget about the charts lol.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Ok this is not me forcing it, I have been watching this area for a week, and this looks like the setup I have been waiting for. 2 day pin bar on GBP/AUD at 2.0000. The level understandably is a major support area, given its a big round number.
I will be playing this on the break, but more than usual pip space due to a minor area just above the pb.
Anyone else spotted this?
I see it too. I am also watching the current four hour bar on the pair. Hoping for a PB for a trend continuance or at least a move back to the 2.000.
Yesterday I had a BUOB to jump on - and it gave me fits before running...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
From a chart perspective, there is a well formed and tested PPZ at 8550 as well. I have no idea what this bar may do, but I know a bad opportunity when I see one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Basber
There Is 2 Reasons Besides What Mike Said That I Like To Not Trade This PB :
1) It's MidDay In US Session, So Volatility Going To Decrease And It Will Become Much More Unreliable During Asia Session, Specially In This Situation That It's Not A Perfect Setup. I Took Perfect PBs Anytime But Not This One.
2)
I Believe In It Too. I Think Like Mike Said There Was a Huge Order Execution In Previous Bars And I Think That Close Their Position Because Of Two Things :
A) End Of UK Session (Like LasVahGoose Said)
B) Round Number 0.8500
So...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Ahhhh...USDCHF...that is a pretty bar in 9 minutes
Have care with this - it is some sideways traffic. Just a word to the wise to keep an eye on it. I like the location - it is straddling the 1.9000, but not the right kind of MACD divergence...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Sure it is still up and very good. (Been there for a while now) I am a very cautious sort of guy, and I will suggest that you try out this public forum thread for a few months first.
You can learn a ton right here and there are many people here to assist you.
Once you've gotten a feel for things, then perhaps the PF would be good. It is just a good idea to *know* that this is for you first.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesL
Hi all
I have scanned through the first couple hundred pages of this thread.
I like the price action stuff very much - it makes sense to me, though I haven't really traded it much - just a tiny bit in a demo a/c - basic reversal candles on lower timeframes on some currencies.
I just wondered if the PF is still as active and popular as it was in the first couple hundred pages, and still come highly recommended?...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I saw that. I think the analysis is extremely thin. The report is merely a rattling off of numbers reported in. So any extrapoloation is a guess.
A loss of 25% in transaction volume still leaves a huge market. Prices don't move because there is some measure of agreement in them - for some reason.
Just my opinion. I don't trade that sort of thing anyway - gimme the charts and eyes to see the footprints.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Once again I will take your other half. The "created PB" against a weekly/monthly push higher is too much to risk a short term ripple for me. I prefer the wave.
LOL !!
The friends in Asia had nothing for me tonight. It is past lunch or getting to the noon hour over there, and nothing happened - so cancel it!
It happens. I love them two bar pins - with divergence at a PPZ - I'll take 'em everyday!
And you are correct - going with the flow is much easier! (Two of those from Wednesday...)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I ended up with a small profit (I scaled into this PB short).... But I got spooked on that spike back up to test the 1.8033 resistance level. GBPCHF looks like it may form a BEOB....Any comments on a) the failed PB short and b) a possible short if BEOB presents itself?
Would appreciate the expert analysis from you vets. Thanks.
GregB
- If you look to the left of your chart, price formed a channel. It is not unusual when price comes back into that area, it forms another channel. Not always, but often enough to catch my attention.Scaling out to the weekly, we are at an area of a channel from Nov 2008. Could not say now where price may go next, but 1.7900 is right below that bar too.
For the sake of safety and sanity, I'd want a really BIG BEOB - and a clean break of the 1.7900. And then you have another channel right below that.
Tough place. Trading short runs into the sideways market.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
There has been some banter lately about R:R, math, exits, high probability trades, etc... Not that some of that stuff does not matter, but what is more important are the high probability trades and managing them right.
Here is a quick trade to consider. GBPUSD this morning on a 2 bar PB. Top of an established channel. See the bar lows clustered in the little rectangle?
Price hit that area perfectly and reversed hard. If it had gotten thru that area I would have been very surprised. This was a slam dunk, and the kind of stuff I like. High probability for just under 1R.
Say what you want about R:R and fancy mathematical footwork. I'll stick with the simple stuff.
EDIT - what is perhaps the most important thing is to manage your risk. That encompasses everything - from 'will I take this trade' to 'when should I get out', and, 'how will I move my stops'.
Ultimately, you gotta figure this out for yourself. The road to success is your own road.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Pro's, traders who have learned to be profitable over a significant time frame (not merely a year or two) have learned that risk control is the prime thing.
Rewards follow without thought.(OK - almost).
Hope everyone had a good week. We had some good opportunities.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I noticed on the thread from last night and early this morning a lot of "manufacturing trades" going on. I will not get specific, but you just cannot jump on every PB that floats by. Most of what I saw failed.
I observed:
trading into Round numbers
trading into PPZ's
trading a PB without being at a PPZ
trading without confluence
I am sure there is more, but today's efforts looked rather sloppy. I know things have not been real busy lately, but lets not pretend.
Sorry if this is poking you in the eye. OK, I am not sorry, and I hope it did poke your eye.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Am I wrong to draw it like that? Am I drawing just too much fibs?
P.S. I am trading off the H4 timeframe so I will be zooming in much more than this D1 time frame I show
Just stick to one fib for now and measure the previous move. What you are looking for are target areas for a retracement. Best fibs lines are 50 and 61.8 for retracement.
There is no science to it really. If you get a fib that lines up with a PPZ, then you have an area with two reasons to watch it.
Look at the attached chart. Notice how the 50 and 61.8 line up nice with some important areas? Makes you think we might see some action there.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Storage Pro thanks for being the voice of reason. I myself will have to pay close attention becaus I have always been an overtrader by nature. this daily charts thing is like greek to me!!! But I can see a basic tentant to the James16 method is definatly patience and discipline as you wait for the a+ high probability trade.
Im glad you cracked the whip
It happens - we all can fall prey to it.
I had exactly ONE trade today. Less than two hours from open to close. 1.82R. I saw several other possibilities, but they were all crapitola.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Is this considered a double top? Im not looking to trade it or anything I just want to make sure I undserstand the concept.
thanks, john
Yes it is. In fact, if you go to the start of the thread (Post 1) and start reading, you'll get an education of a lifetime. After the first 50 pages, you'll start cherry picking posts to read.
Look at the attached chart - I marked a double bottom. Same pair. Same time frame.
All we need now is PA to take a trade short.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I didnt even open my charts yesterday (the conflluence of bank holiday and my annual bonus being paid meant i spent all day drunk off my ass on the harbour), and so was fairly alarmed when i opened them up this morning.
'Oh god! Look at all the pin bars i missed!'
'Wait a second... that one is right into a ppz. And that one sux, its barely a pin. And that one was always going to fail...'
Without James' talk on 'this is critical' and Mikes 'look for a+++++++++ setups!', I would have got killed. Probably the reason people are told...
Does anyone here get the feeling that Joel is faking - just a bit??
I mean - read his back posts. There is far too much substance in them for me to believe he is a green horn...
Cheers - I am glad you are here! Drunk or not.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I just get a bit worried when someone posts junk like 'if you have 3:1 r:R, you will automagically hit your TP 75% of the time!' (and therefore everyone can be a breakeven - or better - trader without trying).
I dont really want to be responsible for someone losing their house because they think the internets taught them the magic MM trading secret. Even if it means an offtopic rant every now and then
I've read Tharp's stuff on RR - and it looks good on paper, but like everything outside of PRICE, it lags. It is a calculation of the past. It is just not possible to calculate forward - hence high probability PA at confluenced areas is what you need. .5R, 1R, 10R - what ever the market will cough up, I'll gladly take - except for the super tight crap.
MM (proper position sizing specifically) - it ain't rocket science - so simple to do and understand, and hoped for RR has NOTHING to do with it!
So.... now that you are here....
A posting or two you've made leads me to believe that you might know something about how/when banks move funds into the market. I'd love to see you explain a little of it as you can. Pretty please?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Cause again fibs are just a tool, so to say it is wrong would be wrong lol.
Ah trading
Take for example the T-Shirt collection in the closet. I not only wear them, they clean my glasses - and interestingly enough, they do double duty as beer bottle openers. Hence many of them have a hole in the front...
Ah beer...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Great post - I will digest and ask questions if you do not mind. Also, feel very free to expand.
Some of this I 'kind of' understood, but having it said straight forwardly is illuminating.
Thanks - and I hope you get bored again real soon...
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
to be honest, forex isnt really my area - i am on the debt market side of things. But, from talking to guys who do that kind of stuff, it is pretty similar. This is probably going to be alot more basic than you are looking for, but if there is any interest in stuff I'd be happy to expand in the slow-thread-3am times (aka its midafternoon on a friday and i am braindead and bored ) So not sure how much use this will be...
*edit*
Wow, that was quite a bit longer than I planned. Shouldnt have had those 4 coffees and started typing randomly...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
You boys are brave with those IPB's. I look at them and say - "What does this say about the order flow? Continuation most likely."
Ghous - can you explain this a bit? Or simply point me at a post? I just don't understand this PA you guys are messin' with. <scratching head>
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
I wouldn't bother playing that Basber,
Just like STO said in a post earlier, we are not here to trade every PA bar that we see
Just remember than an IPB is a pin bar. Would you ever consider the bar you pointed out as a valid pin bar? Hell no! It's probably just an inside bar or something...
Moreover look at the overall PA of the up trend price has literally dragged on it's way up. lot's of small bullish bars and dojis and inside bars all side by side doing nothing but pulling price a little higher.
the location...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Having lurked for a little while on this thread, I would like to thank James 16 and everbody else that has contributed to this thread.
Welcome.
Quote:
I have only been involved with trading for 3 months and have managed to make most of the errors that novices do in that time. In particular, I found that I, like many others I suspect, had a natural gift for picking the wrong entry, stop and exit. How I wish my loss ratio was actually my win ratio!
Anyway, having lost money and confidence, I was fortunate to stumble across this thread early enough to restore my enthusiasm.
Glad to hear that. I was a little different - I made money - a little of it, but had no clue as to why. When I started looking at it, I stopped trading - instantly - and closed my account. It took me a long while to get back live, but it was a successful transition. It can be done, but it takes time.
Quote:
I feel confident that this thread will help me in this endeavour but I would also like to hear from anyone that has been a member of the PF since the early days - do you believe that it is still of benefit to newcomers like myself?
Been there 1 year after it opened. I waited - and read this thread instead. Two reasons - there is a lot here to understand - and there is so much scum on the Internet, I used the test of time to let the J16 PF prove itself out to me.
The main benefit of the PF - IMHO - is the lack of noise on it. And the videos. They are highly valuable. The guest section has a taste of those. Check them out. Then there is the Psych section. Cannot get that here on the public thread. And there are webinars regularly.
But all the basics are right here too. Come as you are. Come as you can. Yes, you will benefit.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
EURJPY BUOB on the hourly. Not the biggest in the world, but in the right place. (Round number and confluence with a PPZ and on the 50% retrace) (Nice how things are a bit slow around the office!)
8AM EST bar. Scale your chart out a bit and you'll see we are entering an area of consolidation. Manage accordingly. Could be a 2R trade (or close) - if you are keeping track.
I also saw numerous pretenders out there - bars without a home (PPZ and confluence)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
See the attached chart. As you can see price has rejected off of the bar highs I have marked. Not a surprise really.
Also, we try to look for Outside Bars at an extreme - a sing low or high. This is not where we'd like it.
That said, sometimes they do play out, but I'd normally expect it to close well above that resistance area for proof. What might be a good way to play this is to wait for a break out above and a pull back to that level and look for PA there.
BTW - if you look back in time, the area we are in has had a lot of price interest in the past, so we are at the right place to watch for a good setup.
I see me and the Bundy are at odds... Go figure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grover
Anyone else feeling the bullish engulfing bar on AUDCAD?
Has a lot of space to run, 23.6 fib, and right on a resistance line
Buy limit above resistance, stop below bar
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Not so sure about that. Haven't set a trade yet. lol
My chart actually has another PPZ that's hidden by the price line that I'd play an entry off. My thoughts were entering right now (unconfirmed) and watching the 9100 level. The PA just 'looks' right.
I like Outside Bars for retrace entries. Pretty consistent for me.
Yeah me too - I just like this kind of trade to be 'emphatic' - meaning that I want it past that resistance first. I will sometimes play a range breakout on an outside bar - but man - that thing had better run a well defined range limit pretty hard.
How is this a retrace bar? The PB on the 24th is the retrace end - no? Or we on different books? Not trying to pick a fight - just want to understand what you see.
But that is just me. I'll be watching. These do sometime keep on going.... and going.... and going....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I'm staying out of this one too.
I've had a few weeks away from trading ( mostly. ) ...took me a few minutes to slap myself on the face and say.....[color=Blue]"errm..... mate.... there are better trades than this. ...You idiot!"
Ah - poop. Now you've done it. It will run now.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Fortunately, I was fast asleep for that bar. These make me nervous, so I tend to skip them.
Price has come back to an area of previous consolidation (look at June), and It does not surprise me that it consolidates again.
What I look for in these areas are butt-kicking PA to launch me out of the mosh-pit and/or solid divergence on the MACD to give me some kind of confluence. Sometimes you just do not get this...
I got a small PB with lots of MACD divergence at the June 6 noon EST bar. And it rolled right over... and turned into a killer trade.
Now, if I was this smart all the time...
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
It's funny, this is the trade I basically scrutinized to death in my journal due to being counter-trend, limited confluence and very likely "twitching to trade" motivated (I took it to that very area and immediately felt that it was beh).
Did it work? Yes. Was the rejection area visible? Yes.
Did it feel like trying to ride the bucking bull(counter-trend) instead of just riding the slow, steady, but safer, mainstream pony trail(with the trend)? Indeedelydoodely.
If I'm already thinking "that high is probably going to be taken out within...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I have degrees (BS) in Mathematics and Computer Science. As a result I was able to get a job, and because I have a few other talents like public speaking and I'm told, clear thinking, I've been able to get a really nice job. I could have a bigger one - but shoot, those guys fail to have a life. But I digress.
The point I am making is that it took four years and a whole lot of books (which I poured over every word) measuring in the 10's of thousands of pages. To get a job. A job. Nothing else.
So if you think reading this thread (and yes, there is some noise here, get over it) is too much to ask, then I suggest a degree at a local University instead. For 10 to 30K a year instead. And a job.
Be a diamond miner. Sift through the tons of dirt to get to the few shiny stones, and you'll be feeling as big as De beers.
Cheers. Today has been good.
Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
wow..... Finally, james16 thread has reached the 1000th page.... IF your "Number of Posts to Show Per Page" is 40 posts/page like mine..
for those overwhelmed with the task of reading a voluminous thread such as this, setting your default to 40 posts/page would definitely help, psychologically...
Look, it's better to say "jeez, im on page 484, but i'm almost halfway through ...woohooo, no problem " than
"wow, this thread has 2665+ pages, & i'm only on page 1360... what the f@#?!%&,...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Nice 2bar PB.
At a PPZ
With space
At 50% From the last swing high
Bounce off of an established trend line
Negative - closed on my chart right smack on 1.8200.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
I've got no opinion on that pair as it's not "one of mine"
When pondering a setup, usually occam's razor ends up being:
If despite weighing pros and cons I still feel (so) bad about a trade(as not to immediately want to take it) instead of seeing great potential, why take it?
Taking a trade with less than 100% conviction just lays a foundation for interfering, self-manipulation and general sources of worry.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I am not trading gbp/cad b/c it doesn't line up with my methods.
But let me just share that many of us don't have the slightest clue about any fundamentals, and for most(notice I say most so if you use it and it works don't yell at me lol) of us it simply distracts from just reading the chart. THis is not to get into a fundies vs techs , too many of that. But since this is Jims thread i will throw this out. Someone once asked James "what do you do about news?" Jim's reply "I avoid news like the plague."
So do I.
Mike
Mind discussing why not taking the GC trade? I'd enjoy your take on it myself.
News -
I don't understand it anyway, and I am willing to bet that the economists at the big funds and banks have most, if not all the same data the government does anyway, and price sets itself up as a result. How many times do we see PA in agreement with an impending event. Lots.
Besides, my wife had the news on today and I was regaled with a story about a man who shot up a gym in Pennsylvania because he could not get sex.... Guess we know why.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
When I find a trade that doesn't scream out at me, or when I see it I just say EH....
I was hoping to hear that.
This is so darned important, and a real reason why I avoided FF (mostly) for almost 2 years.
I traded just the dailies for a long time, and worked hard to pave my own road using the material found here. Every time I visited here, I found myself being influenced out of what I knew - rather than allowing the experience of the market to come to me - via a demo. I am sure this elongated my learning curve a little.
Eventually, if anyone gets successful at this, they positively learn to do it in their own manner - and more importantly - they stick to it.
These forums are a two edge sword. Having a firm set of rules will help you avoid the second edge. Let the market refine your method. There are some members here who understand that you are wholly responsible to make it yourself, and will stick to helping out with the bedrock principles.
This is where you need to be no matter what -
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
When I find a trade that doesn't scream out at me, or when I see it I just say EH.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
just in general when you hit a range like that stop orders build on the lower side of it, if it attracts enough attention you get a push to clear those orders and then your buy order come in to use those orders for some extra free liquidity
as liquid as forex is, it still is never liquid enough for the big guns
also known to the laymen as a false breakout
I learned a lot of things from Mike -
This ditty is a diamond.
Mike - Know anyone who fades these 'breakouts'?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I have to decide to use H1, until I master it. If someone can do it, I can too. Perhaps, it may take a bit longer.
Your winrate shot through the roof. Congratulation! Can you reveal your winrate and average R:R.
Yes. I spent more than half-year full time on trading method in general. No way to return.
cheers,
KK
Hi KK - I have four suggestions for you - which means you get a bonus!
1Hr. You need time to think. Forget the 1hr and go daily. You can get there, but you need to work to it. Go back and read the first post of this thread. DO WHAT IT SAYS. You are not progressing for a reason. When a man with 25 years of experience tells you how to be successful, only a fool would ignore it.
Win rate and R:R. You are focused on exactly the wrong thing. Those questions inform me that you are thinking about how much money you can make, rather that on the all important Risk Control. Control risk, first, second and last and trust me, the money will be there. Turn your head around. You'll never be able to do this until you do.
Your method. From what I read, it is not working out well. And what does the "in general" comment mean? Winners are very specific, no such thing as "in general" Ever watch the old show "Hee Haw"? Every show had a scene in it where a guy went to the Doctor and he said, "Doctor, it hurts when I do this", and the Doctor would smack him in the head and say: "WELL STOP DOING THAT!!"
You are not going to make it in this unless you adjust.
Don't take this as mean spirited, you are going through the same exact things I did early on. If you got a thick-ass head, I got a big-ass hammer.
PB's are a gift. I am fairly certain I could trade them to the exclusion of all other PA and do well. When at the right location, with confluence, it is as close to free money as you will ever see.
Start over.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Yes, I did but instead of profit I received a mail
Your order #4485784 (BUY STOP 0.01 EURGBP at 0.8536 was deleted due to the market price breakout.
what shell I think of it?
I bet it means they could not hedge your trade (and a bunch of others) and have decided to remove the risk - after the fact. How long prior to the move were you in the trade?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
ooh. That is a problem. I would positively file a complaint on it and report it to the NFA as a complaint. It is not as though you were breaking an anti-scalping rule. Get your money, then close the account.
EDIT - errr. I see you are in Poland, so the NFA won't help. Perhaps the EU or a government watchdog agency can help. If you can, stick with FX brokers in the UK. I cannot vouch for other places in the EU, but the UK has some controls and a solid law enforcement mindset.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Last edited by StoragePro, Aug 6, 2009 9:01am
Reason: Fixing a dumb thing
I think the reason some expert level members here don't care much about R:R is that they are trading at a very high winrate (+90%), so even if they are making a 7:1 trade, they have a positive expected value. Nevertheless, I wonder if most of the consistent winners here are happy to trade in this way.
kk
kk - remember how r:R is calculated - by looking at results. Focus on refinement of understanding what trades are great trades, how to minimize risk once you are in a trade, and finally trade management.
But most of all, your own personal psychology will require transformation to pull this off.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
News has nothing to do with our trading because for our money where price is going is of far far more importance than why this is why stuff like co relations and news impacts stay out of our way...
Thanks Ghous - I was out in another ridiculous meeting...
kk - the point we are making is that when there is PA prior to a news announcement, that PA, will, more often than not, shine a very bright light on the eventual market direction.
GBPCAD PA from yesterday (2 bar PB) stands as a witness. You can agree or disagree, but I would prefer you get out the old news and line up PA prior to its release to what price actually did after release.
I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
Check out John Carters book "Mastering the Trade". He has an outstanding section on this. It was my first revelation about the benefit of PA.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I've never been that frank and transparent in my entire life...something abt Kk loosing it exactly where I was abt to until I found you guys...made me put it up,
I was exactly there too. In fact, I was certain that James himself was a charlatan...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
One Question Ghous....Would you guys not even hesitate to trade a nice PB or BUOVB tomorrow just before NFP? 4hr bar would complete at 8am EST(depending on broker), NFP comes out at 8:30am EST... Just wondering....this is my first NFP with this thread.
GregB
I'm not Ghous, but I play him on TV...
When the PA bar is trading into a strong PPZ. Since we are trading PA, we watch for that kind of thing - no?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
If you have an ECN, you can sit and watch the spreads onthe interbank change. Right now, the EURAUD spreads are anywhere from 5 to 16 pips. and it was changing every second or two. Pretty wild - ni periods of low liquidity, those sudden 10 pip moves equate to that spread and just two participants - maybe even one of us....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Alright I have been noticing this over and over and over (and over) and today was another example of it, thought I would just throw it out there for other peoples opinions.
Is it just me, or say when big news releases happen, the news actually breaks in the way which price action shows in the previous hours. An example of the news today with the QE announced by BOE.
>snip<
Anyone with any thoughts ? Either way I am going to be watching for PA to show it's hand in relation to the NFP tomorrow
Yeah - it really does do that Jig... lets try an experiment on the EURUSD - and of course no one should construe this as something that should over ride your own thinking.
IF YOU ARE PRONE TO LISTENING CLOSE TO OTHERS FOR YOUR TRADING ENTRIES - SKIP THIS.
Here is what I see:
Four straight Bearish bars. Each of them touching a TL
Then a Bullish PB that failed to break. So it is not a PB
Price returning to the lower bound of the horizontal channel - watch this for PA
We are coming up from to the underside of a PPZ
Two daily PB's on the 4th and 5th (IBFX Feed)
And a fifth thing not on the charts - a general desire of many that the pair rise again - a contrarian indicator.
Sigh - it matter not. Price will do what price will do.
A note on MACD divergence - when price goes flat, MACD has to diverge because the MA's are moving closer together. Price has been flatter than Kansas lately. MACD diverged... In my view this is not a confluence factor in this particular case. Price has to move.
What;s missing - price action that I'd love to trade... although I will admit I am in from that first PB still... Free trade for me.
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Alright I have been noticing this over and over and over (and over) and today was another example of it, thought I would just throw it out there for other peoples opinions.
Is it just me, or say when big news releases happen, the news actually breaks in the way which price action shows in the previous hours. An example of the news today with the QE announced by BOE.
On the 1HR GBP Index we have a bearish outside bar that never broke, which was followed by a pinbar on the last hourly candle before the news.
On the 1HR GBPUSD we see a 1HR...
Yeah - it really does do that Jig... lets try an experiment on the EURUSD - and of course no one should construe this as something that should over ride your own thinking.
IF YOU ARE PRONE TO LISTENING CLOSE TO OTHERS FOR YOUR TRADING ENTRIES - SKIP THIS.
Here is what I see:
Four straight Bearish bars. Each of them touching a TL
Then a Bullish PB that failed to break. So it is not a PB
Price returning to the lower bound of the horizontal channel - watch this for PA
We are coming up from to the underside of a PPZ
Two daily PB's on the 4th and 5th (IBFX Feed)
And a fifth thing not on the charts - a general desire of many that the pair rise again - a contrarian indicator.
Sigh - it matter not. Price will do what price will do.
A note on MACD divergence - when price goes flat, MACD has to diverge because the MA's are moving closer together. Price has been flatter than Kansas lately. MACD diverged... In my view this is not a confluence factor in this particular case. Price has to move.
What;s missing - price action that I'd love to trade... although I will admit I am in from that first PB still... Free trade for me.
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Nope, its definitely not you! In fact, there is even a name for it - the efficient market hypothesis - and it is the basis of all modern finance
Broadly, the EMH states that in an efficient market, price incorporates all known information.
>major snippage<
As usual you toss up some cool stuff. One thing has consistently bothered me about economics as a whole - the desire of the economist to reduce to a model, no matter how complex and impenetrable, human behavior. Depending on the decade, there are the theories du jour.
I heard a quote once that fits - "everything is true in its own time"
BTW - I picked up Animal Spirits - have not read it yet, but I will.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Lol I was wondering when you were going to post SP, I was just thinking to myself after it happened "I just hope SP's stop has some leeway" hehe.
Yes - just enough. I have a weird way of moving stops when the time is ripe for price to move - mainly, I wait for it to go before I adjust a SL. This adds risk, but on days like today, it pays off huge. Last July's EU drop was another place I did this.
Did you all see the other moves? Great day.
Confession time - I was not able to watch things today. I left home at 6:30 am and got home around 7PM.
Damn cat woke me up a few mins ago. It is 3:30AM around here - nighty night!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I have been reading some of the commentary and would like to encourage our newer and learning traders to make simplicity the watchword.
You'll read some of the seasoned traders comments and they will often wax eloquent on some of the finer details and possibilities. And while doing this, never waver from the conclusions gained from the the simple PA as it presents itself.
Why do I say this? Because it is frightenly easy to lose ourselves and our bearings.
Hence -
Look at the location PA is at - PA that is solid occurs at a PPZ
Look at the bar itself - is it clearly what you think it is?
Is the bar large enough to be convincing?
Is there confluence? A 50 or 68.1% fib; MACD or RSI divergence? A trendline touch? Is it with the trend?
Does it have some room to go and not trading into a PPZ?
Most other thoughts past this will prevent you from taking the good trades and get you into the bad ones.
I've been there.
Onto setting goals.
You are hear to make money - right? If you were'nt, you be on the job with a charity instead of reading my drivel. To make money - you need to set some goals.
What percent per week is yours? Think about it. If it is 5%, compounding will make you very rich in a short time.
And you are thinking all wrong.
Think process and the market will come to you.
May I suggest this goal for this week coming up?
Take no risky trades. You will be surprised how good you'll feel if you can get thru this one week controlling your stupid side. (Trust me - I know this to be true)
Now forward one week - repeat. Forward another - repeat.
Forward again - repeat.
Never let a winner turn into a loser. BE is fine and dandy.
One month. No bad trades. Skip every iffy one. Take only the great setups.
If you can do that, you will be a trader. You will have proved it because it will be the best month of your new career. By far.
And you'll have learned something - how to trade.
Make this not one month goal, but two. Here is why - and this is interesting.
It takes 6 weeks (about) to make or break a habit. Look it up! It takes six weeks of exercise for your body to respond to it - that is why all those commercials talk about "in just six weeks you'll be Charles Atlas".
Physiologically, our brain works the same way - it takes about six weeks for a new thinking pattern to begin to implant itself. New pathways form, and over time become dominant.
So, if you understand the foundations taught here, you are about six weeks away from the breakthrough you desire. You will not be complete, and there will be lots to do, but you will have both feet firmly on the road.
If you are working on the fundamentals of PA still, take heart - apply yourself over the next - you guessed it - six weeks. Reveiw the charts every day on a couple timeframes. Spot and mark PPZ's and find the confluence.
Six weeks. And you will be on the road.
But it takes conscious effort.
Can you do it?
Will you?
See you again after the third week of September. Write down where you are as a trader today. In six weeks, you will a completely different person.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Learning when not trade is part of learning to trade. It's one of those things that takes time to sink in. For me it is slowly starting to get through my thick skull.
Very nice post.
Yeah - everyone has things to improve. I am going to take on the next six weeks to pointedly address mine. I am also going to sharpen what is strong already.
Join me?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Also can anyone comment on the pin bar on the USD/CAD weekly showing a reversal towards USD appreciation? This trade was also appearing on sunday and at a support level.
Just now I saw the news that the BoC is intervening in the market to help Canadian exporters which should help that trade.
I don't know about the news, but I do see that PB trading into a PPZ and round number. I'd be willing to buy a bounce off of the 1.9200 with PA. Or sell a sharp rejection of it. Waiting....
PPZ marked. Need some confirmation to get in.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Thank you both for the replies. I will study through them and make sure the mistake does not happen again. Still got much more to learn. Hope that I can catch up. Want to go through the whole thread b4 going into the PF
We were talking about BEOB and that they should appear at swing highs for a good reversal signal (meaning counter trend)
Pin bars are also reversal signals, won't it be better for it to appear at swing highs too?
Sorry if I got the wrong idea somewhere just trying to sort this out
Yes - swing highs are the place for these bars. And your PB did not fail. It broke the bottom - went ot the bar highs, and reversed. Happens frequently that way against the trend.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Sometime we get a nice PB, with divergence at a nice location, and those pesky bar highs act like they often do. You can take these trades, but be aware that this can be the result.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hate it when this happens - but it is cleansing to share it...
I live for this setup. First time back to the 365 EMA. On a Round number. On a PPZ (minor). Nice size PB. First trade of the day and I am licking my lips...
See the Bar lows? I *knew* they'd come into play. They did. Twice. Second bar closed south of the round number - and momma did not raise a complete fool - I closed the trade. You gotta be sh*tting me!
Humpf.
My golden setup. Turned to tin. Does not happen often. These usually bag some nice pips.
Here is the shameful chart. It happens...
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Never can tell what is going to happen - Just gotta play the odds, and it may help to see the BIG picture.
Look a the chart attached. Notice the BEOB that kicked off the move we are in. No interruption, and in fact we are accelerating. With MACD Divergence occurring during the run up. (Big clue something is in the wind)
That PB might be a tad small to put the breaks on the move all of a sudden. Then again it might. You've have your doubts - you won't lose a thing if you listen to them.
...
Quote:
Originally Posted by pakiestra
Just had a look on a carry trade member (CAD/JPY). They had a bit of a meltdown day today.
Pros :
-bar is off the 150 MA
-a round number of 87
-local S/R line
-a nice space to run up
Cons :
-MACD is going negative (just started)
-stocks and risk trades are strugling with their significant resistance zones (S&P500 with its 1000 mark)
-pin's shape is imperfect (close is not exactly within previous bar low)
Overall althought it looks juicy in terms of a potential space I will pass it. I'm still a strugling newbie, if seniors would...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hi supermatt,
On the daily chart, an inside bar breakout formed off resistance which is also a double top now.
Here you go (the red bar is the inside bar - it's low and high are within the previous bar):
Ben
If you mentally combine those two bars, it forms a PB - perfectly legit - and snazzy at a nice location.
I use them often at lower time frames - 4hr and 1 hr.
I'll have to look one up, but when I get PA at a PPZ, Outside bar, PB, and a IB forms nudged up against the bar showing PA, I use the break of that IB to enter. It does not happen a lot on the dailies, but they are nice when they do.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
That bar is just a bullish bar. To be an BUOB, it needs ot completely engulf the extent of both upper and lower wicks.
Cheers!
Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt
im keeping my eye on this E/A setup forming. Bullish engulfing or BUOB as you guys put it forming on daily. Seems to be forming of a pretty good support level. 6900 area
Will have to see
only has limited space up. perhaps good for 90 or so pips if it works out.
what do you guys think?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
As usual, I would be glad if the seniors around can give me reasons why NOT entering this trade. It is weird because last week I hardly had one trade...this week 9 so far. I am beggining to think I am not enough picky...I made a total of 8 wins and one looser so far. But does it worth the risk? I mean, maybe I am not enough picky and it will get me in the future. I want to prevent it before it happens.
Here is my last trade....something wrong here?
Thanks guys.
Ben
PS...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
The "truth" behind this statement is "KNOWN" by many but its like an imaginary fog to new people.
The fog is self imposed and its imposed because people think things must be difficult and complicated to be of use or worth.
How very true....
Confession time - during the early days, It was so foggy for me, I blamed JIM! I really did. Damn Charlatan ...
Quote:
do you have to be ultra ultra picky?
of course not but you have to know when to get in and get out.
There are setups that are just simply 'tradeable'. Some are easy - and those are the ones I look for. They almost never turn into a loser - unless I blow managing it.
I hear Chubbs now (from happy Gilmore) saying to me "Just tap it in, just tap it in"... but the ball has to be close in to tap it in...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
There is a legend about a man who asked for his payment to be made in rice. 1 grain of rice on the first checker of a checker board - double that on the 2nd (2 grains) -
How many doubles do you need to do to start getting massive amounts of money?
Pretty exciting stuff A?
Yes - that is what compounding is all about. The Snowball gets bigger as it rolls downhill and picks up more with each successive turn than the previous.
If you are good trader - and can take advantage of this principle, then you'll be well off soon enough
Although thinking in terms of doubling is likely going to take your eye off of the (snow) ball.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I'm Not sure if anyone else has complained about this before or not, BUT...
Is it possible if you guys who post your chart with a black background, to use BRIGHT coloured Bars (BRIGHT Green up bars & BRIGHT Red for down bars ...for example)...it would be so much easier to see the open and close on the bars....makes it easier to see everything better....OR.....use a white background....that is so much easier to see...something like how ghous posts his charts....just a suggestion, nothing more....
GregB
Eyes getting old, Greg??
Ghous can point you where you can get a new monitor...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Assymetric returns and negative compounding are a bitch.
You have a way with words! You gotta have some Irish in ya.
At any rate - (sorry, no pun intended), once you get hold of 'it', and more importantly, get hold of yourself, then, and only then can 'I The Trader' take advantage of compounding.
Of course anyone who is currently travelling the road with success will tell you to forget the stupid compounding spreadsheets. I've said it. And I've ignored it.
Here is a trick that will assist you to remember that making that sheet work in real life means paying attention to taking the best setups. Ready?
Take a small, but meaningful amount of money - three months rent. (2,000 - 3,000 USD?) Don't have it? Get a part time job and get it. Open and account. Trade it.
When the visions of sugar plums stop dancing through your head, you'll be ready to focus on the important stuff.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
(I just got through this tome that talks in great detail about this topic - http://au.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTi...470042664.html - excellent reading if you are into that kinda thing. Although, if you are, you might have to question whether you are *really* happy with life )
Erm... not to be rude, but I'd rather hang myself. Fiji gave me the good stuff already. And it is stupid simple too!
EDIT -
Here is a REAL book. Interesting all the way through it.
Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger
You'll find it on Amazon.com
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
ok so the pin didn't form but I had already (maybe too eagerly) put my order in only for it to break early... it reached the first trouble zone at 1.09 so half off the table and the rest to BE for a very sudden free trade... now to watch the rest play out...
Better be careful about that sort of thing. You can get crunched. And if you don't, You'll get a bad habit - which is much worse,because you'll get crunched over and over again.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Notice where the price reversed? No surprise. A great bar, but the location - meh.
If you got in, tell me you either went to break even once it hit this area, or got out. Pull up the hourly chart - that area has gotten a lot of respect - yesterday.
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you, and anyone else who reads it....
Seriously, I take what the market gives me and - am aware enough to grab.
It varies. I have gone weeks without a trade on the daily.
I have taken 5 or 6 on the hourlies - and it gets a little like over trading to me when I do that.
If I am able to watch, I usually get something on the hourlies almost every day - but when it is slow ... Nothing. Summertime is always flatter in my opinion.
Ultimately the right question is this:
How many 'A' trades have you taken in a row. (Notice I did not say 'winners')
Cheers
Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt
Hey guys,
Just want to do a poll here:
Trading the different timeframes, how often do you enter trades per week/month in all your instruments that you moniter for PA Trades
For example:
H4 - 5 times a week
D1 - 2 times a week
Weekly - 1 time a month
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
A lot of folks just make a decision and move on. Not me. I revisit every single one of them - sometimes for weeks after. I try to learn something from every decision to get in or not.
I think this is a great non-trade for you (and all of us to look at) Thanks for posting it because it is sweet. You did not make a mistake skipping this trade - not at all - you stayed comfortable - and alive.
What I am showing you is a little something I learned from Swami on the PF. A once a week analysis of the markets. I do it differently than he does, but I do it, and found it very valuable. (Thanks Swami - somebody is listening very close to you!)
First chart is the BIG PICTURE. The Weekly of this pair. See the fib retrace? Where is price now? hhmmm....
Second Chart is the daily. See the grey box marking a PPZ? Where is price now? hhmmmm
Last Chart - the 4 hour. Couple things to take note of - first, we have divergence. Big divergence. Big, Pink Elephant in the room divergence. Second - PB on my PPZ. Third - that two bar PB I also marked - FAILED. It did not start a run.
The traffic. Yeah, I see it. It happens often when price nudges to a PPZ. Eventually, some one has got to lose these battles, and this one is day trading days old...
Confluence - we got a ton of it. And enough of it that I felt the risk was worth it.
Finally - look at The gray bar on the 4 hr chart - that marks a PPZ that was rejected from underneath on July 28. Guess where my stop is now.... If price stays below that bar, it has a chance to run a bit.
RUN FORREST, RUN !!!
This is a really cool example - IMHO...
EDIT: Oh - and yes, I've been stalking this one trade all week. And I got it twice... Tastes like chicken...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
What do you guys think of this?
Comments please. Kinda new to this, might be missing out on some stuff.
I know there's a nice bullish pin in the daily, so I'm betting on a smaller move in 4hr to just 1 PPZ. Not gunning for a home run.
I cannot speak about 'previous history' but PB are old, old, old and famous. The appear in all markets and time frames, and when at the right location are about as close to money in the back as can be.
Sometimes I notice PB's don't show up a lot, but their blood relative the Outside bar does.
These bars won't go away from being effective - unlike technical setups.
Bar formation or "Price Action" are created from order flow and spell out the intent of the large market participants. All we do is wait for their intentions to become clear, and we follow suit. This will never change. It has been around for hundreds and hundreds of years.
When you shove hundreds of millions - or billions into the Forex Market, you don't do it in a single order. It has to go in over time. Price Action then occurs. Buying and selling. Stops being hit.
It is kind of like going to the Junior Prom. You wait until intentions are clear - ten you make your move - or you'll get a slap!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sohail786
Hi folks
hope some senior members or someone can answer my questions
i was just scrolling through the history GBP/JPY daily chart, right back to 1995, and it confuses me and brings up a few questions important to me.
i see no or very few decent looking pin bars at swing high and swing lows or rather at the right locations right back from 1995 to up until early 2000.
why is it that pin bars are appearing now and not previously?
will these pin bars continue to appear say e.g another 10 years? i know you cant see the future so cant...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
AS your experience grows & get openminded, u will probably entertain & incorporate IB's in your trading.. (i am into it but have not delved into & used it as extensively as jarroo, Dale, zuret9 & the others have)
false breaks do happen: in ranges there are false breaks, even strong S/R sometimes get false breaks.
IB trading entails discretion, just like many facets/aspects of trading do.
& just like Sir mike w said, IB trading often gives low risk, high reward trade setups.
Sigh.
I'd like to see that decoder ring. Right now IB's are a lot like entrails reading to me. Now if I could just find my Urim and Thummim...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Aha... Uhummmm... what do u mean, Sir?
u mean u want to learn about IB trading from them real soon?
what's Urim & Thurimmm? lol
can u please talk/post as if u are talking to a 5 year old...
it's past 2AM here & u are speaking words alien to my ears...
Urim and Thummin were apparently two stones that the Jewish High Priest held inside his breast plate. They were used to cast lots. About as close to magic you'll see in the Bible.
Chicken entrails - Guts. Often 'read' by old women in Latin countries to gain knowledge of future events. Look up "Bullshit" on Wiki...
And - go to bed.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hi,
after reading alot of times reading the thread, this is what I got....i think that the price is going to go down but would like to know what all the gurus think
Happy trading
Well, check out the weekly. Pin bar (Did you get in it?), then a drop into a consolidation area.
Divergence
At the 61.8% fib
Eyes are wide open. Let's get some PA to get in if we are not in it already.
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I'm wondering if we are going to be bouncing around in that consolidation area for a while. Only time (and PA ) will tell.
Perhaps - Look at he monthly. Areas of consolidation in the past turn into area of consolidation in the future very frequently. I personally like ranges. Nice and safe place to play.
I like where we are with this pair. It is quite a nice pair. And I know my pairs.
Drop baby, drop like a rock.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I must dive in. Anytime an Aussie with a brew in his hand starts going off, I gotta go with him - even if the pool is full of box jellies and hungry sharks...
BTW - I probably have the book he is speaking of. I got a headache from it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
I love candlesticks as much as the next guy (possibly moreso - look at my reading list from a month or two back! ) but I think I should throw out a word of caution here.
Candlestick 'patterns' are, on the whole, overrated.
Yup, I said it.
You are being kind...
Quote:
Why? Because they lead to bad decisions from people that dont really think through what they are doing.
Bingo. (That is a local Catholic term meaning "I win" or in this case "You got it"...)
Hey, I see a pattern - I'm diving in. Oops, was that a PPZ I just crashed into? Reminds me of the time I dove into a pool with I was a kid - and the pool was only 2 feet deep. "Look a pool!!''...)
Look at that 'three black crows' pattern. What does it really tell you? All it really says is 'price went down a decent amount for 3 periods in a row'. But is that tradeable information per se? Probably not.
Quote:
If I said 'hey guys, there are 3 red bars on my chart, should I short it?!', I would get laughed out of the thread. Heartily. Because, by itself, it doesnt really mean anything. For every 'example' like the contrived one on the linked page, I can show you ten charts where it failed.
We'd never laugh at you ...
Quote:
Now, if I said something more like 'hi guys, I saw a big bearish bar which closed at the low and went straight through a PPZ and round number, with a broader range than the last couple of bars on a pullback from a downward trend'... well, people might be more receptive to my ideas.
Frankly, I'd ask you to repeat that....
Quote:
The problem is that people get so caught up in the cool names and spotting the patterns (something our brain loves to do) that they dont really consider the underlying movement. What does the candle actually mean? What is the market doing? Where might it go, and where might it stall?
Yeah, like buying a drink for a pretty girl. You know what comes next - right?
Quote:
But they dont worry about that. It's all just 'omg, i spotted a samurai morning star engulfing megashark pattern on AUDJPY so I shorted a hundred contracts $$$$ lol!'. And a few days later, they post a whinge about how their patten didnt work and now they live in a box.
Dont get me wrong - some candlestick patterns are useful.... unsuprisingly, the ones that mirror the PA setups we look at here! And, even more unsuprisingly, they get more and more useful as you look at them in context - what confluences are around? What is the general...
Texas??? Nothing but Steers and ....
Quote:
Summary: exotic candlestick patterns are just going to lead to you donking off accounts on quasi-Eastern sounding crap bars in bad places. Leave them for the suckers who think they stumbled onto some mystical secret.
All together now... OHHHMMMMM......
Quote:
Stick to the basics, friend.
And there it is. The best of the best right there.
If you all really want a book, Try "Pring on Price". It is excellent. But do NOT bother until you've consumed this thread. Trust me - one thing at a time works.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
The problem with trading dailies is you will never build a small account up just trading them, there are simply not enough trading oppurtunites, for account building you need to get down to 1hr or 15min charts, where you can get trades every day. However to get down to them you need to move down from daily to learn pa and gain experience. So it looks like
Small account - start on daily gradually move down to 15 mins to learn
Build account up to large account then move up to daily.
A-hem. Never??
That is not true. I long hill and a small snowball is all that is needed - and the vision to understand this. The trouble is the lack of patience and self control and a firm understanding - something few have, but if you do not have these things, you are doomed to lose anyway. No matter how much you have.
One more thing - add to the account monthly. Pay yourself.
Remember - the clock ticks at <roughly> the same rate for me as it does for you. Many cannot do the shorter time frames, hence daily and weeklies rule the day. Add in Stocks and/or futures, and it is clear that you'll have something every day.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I never said you cant build an account, it will take forever to take 500 bucks to 100k using only dailies, not many will have the patience to do this. Once you are at 100k then fine dailies becomes the obvious choice.
Since when is 10 or 20 years forever?? Many people work longer to have a crappy retirement. Grow your account over that time and retire in the South of France instead.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I'm in cruise control mode right now... One more good trade this week is all I am looking for. Today was a very good day.
So I thought I'd babble on a bit about Humility. Because having it makes a big difference.
Humility is not a possession of the weak. Humble people do not shrink away.
To the contrary, weak people spend huge amounts of energy and effort to get their way, to be heard, protecting 'their rights', 'being right' and doing 'as they please'. People lacking Humility are arrogant and self centered. they push people away, and cannot be taught (get that last point close in mind). Weakness shows itself as arrogance and refusal to admit a wrong.
The humble people I have known are Towers of Strength. Humble people recognize their limitations, and guard against these from harming themselves. They also know their strengths and exploit them and improve them. (Better read that again!) Humble people are teachable. (Did You Get that??) They have opinions, but do not bash others with them, or work to establish their "Lordship" abusing them. (Isn't it true that no one is as insufferable as a person who is good at something, but makes sure you know it?)
Humble persons are gentle and kind. They understand the fragile nature of humankind, and love them. Humble people nurture and build up. Humble people are magnified by helping others excel. And they do it quietly, in the dark, and without any thought to payback or accolades. Success is it's own reward to this person.
Humble people are always looking for answers, hear and answer the ring of truth.
Do you need humility to win in the markets? Yeah, I'd say so, because a humble man comes to the realization that he is not in control of the market, but he can make himself available to it - if he puts his personal desires aside. They can learn new things, and most of all, they can teach it to others.
Humility takes the blinders off of your eyes and you can bring all kinds of things into view. (Read that again) The arrogant man is narrow in focus and ability.
Last - People gravitate to this sort of person. They are a joy to be with, and they have many friends. Although sometimes you'd never know it... But they are always happy people.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
All I need is a Spoon, fork, knife, bowl, two changes of clothes and a soft place to sleep out of the weather. A daily shower would be nice too, but a creek will do in a pinch.
Eh, that's all a lie.
I need a cold six pack of Boddingtons, a Bag of Doritos and chicken wings on demand. I really don't need that other stuff.
Eh - that is a lie too.
I am here for the money. Duh. I get happiness elsewhere folks. Like a bottle of Scotch. (Half-truth). I like Bourbon too. (The whole truth)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I think you really knew what was going to happen to my pips and would have saved me some 120+ pips. But when you posted your charts i was on my from office to home and that's a big disadvantange i have for not being online at a crucial time (NY OPEN).
I had this trend line+ 89 MA and you could also see the orange box in my charts above.
BUT I CHOSE TO LEARN IT THE HARD WAY.
PPZ's are PPZ's. They will usually stop price.
Go back in this thread and read joelcf's posts. he put one up (last week?) that explained the formation of these PPZ's very well.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hi folks - wanted to share something - and I hope that no one got hurt by these this morning, but the Yen crosses early all yielded long PB's at 8AM EST. (GJ, AJ, CJ, EJ, CADJPY all look like they are in trouble.)
Some of them *may* work out, but check out the USDJPY cross posted. Long nose PB - good. Trading into a major PPZ, without divergence - Super Bad.
As much as I feel the pull of a PB, location is just as important. Maybe more.
If that PB straddled the PPZ, and finished well above, this post would be differently worded.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Firstly, you have the potential to drive yourself nuts. You think "well I look at 20 pairs on the daily and 4H, so I had better get my period converter charts up so I can look at 2H,3H, 5H, 8H, 2D, 3D and all the others! Great! More opportunities!" This will drive you mad. You won't be able to see clearly what's going on with a pair if you have 30 different timeframes open for that one single pair.
>snip<
It's a perfectly valid and feasible way to do things. The danger is that it blows the whole concept of "keep it simple" out of the water....
As always you come right down on it Tia.
I will combine bars - up to Two. Simple works. If it is hard for me to visualize, the rest of the trading world might have the same problem.
We are all not so different. Simple sells. Simple works. Support and Resistance with solid PA coming off of it.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Just the kind of PA I like in a tight range. Price sticks it's nose way up and out, and rushes back in forming a nice PB/BEOB in rejecting the foray out. News in about 80 minutes, but it seems the market has yet again tipped it's hand. Nothing is ever sure, but this one is in BE + territory.
And I missed my entry... No chasing. Chasing is bad.
Darn Sleep. When will it ever end...
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Is it that simple???????
Yep...
.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
You should maybe try a bedside laptop with PA alerts on ? I sometimes do this in the mornings from around 6AM to 10AM, I doze off in bed and I still get the markets "watched" in those times because when PA occurs I get woken up by the alerts.
Just a thought.
Jig
Oh yes. My wife would love that...
Nah - I need my rest - I have a day job to half do. Not that I have not considered it though!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Seriously though, it's a good point. We can't judge the viability of a trade setup by whether it worked out or not. Sounds mad doesn't it? But think of it this way. When we enter the market it can only go one of two ways. Up or down. So sometimes we'll make bonehead moves and be right.
Those are very dangerous times.
We want an edge that can be measured across a hundred trades. I always ask myself "if I took this setup a hundred times would I end up profitable". Getting to a place where you don't judge...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I like the levels but I would probably like to see a better defined bar (stronger PA) which is why I am trying to get feedback on whether I am looking trades that aren't there!!
Nothing more to say. What works for you is the key, and I cannot argue with your view.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Missed a few sitters today, was out at the beach fishing
I expect STO to be all over this...
G
Not at that time of night... That would have been one to consider, but to grab these in such a tight range, I would have like that OB to poke down outside of the range into the neighborhood of 1.4200. See the blue line and 'X'.
It went nice too. interestingly, to the Bemac 61.8% ICCE...
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Sometimes I feel I get too much braggart. I don't mean that...but it's a weird situation. I am 16 years old (yea, there is someone younger than you here LOL) hardly 2-3 months trading and its too easy.
I see many people over another forum crying after years of time and money wasted.
At least I got rid of those PONZI schemes and MLMs I was into
I think it's the hand of god Johnny introduced me to this thread! I'm sure.
Ben
16 - ahh those were the days...
the way we made money back then was by cutting grass, shoveling snow and painting. I owned a bunch of bonds that were given to me, but the act of trading was unheard of to me.
I was chasing girls, smoking the funny stuff and playing Soccer. Simple times.
take your time with this Benji - you have a ton of it. You are in a great spot right now.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Anyone trading EUR/JPY to the long side these days?
Long myself from the 133 area from smaller TF.
Man, it is good to hear from you again.
Yeah - BUOB off the 150 and the 133.00 round number. (Mike would be proud!)
The thing that concerns me about it at this point is that we are nudged into a PPZ at another round number. Price has chopped around in this zone in the recent past and we are in the middle of the overall range. If we break out above the 365, I'll look for an entry north, if not, south. But the 365 sits in confluence with the 138.00 and a PPZ (Daily and weekly), on the 138/139 so a breakout would have some big power to it - no?
If price gets above the 365 EMA, and the PPZ we have some room. Could be be big.
So - not a great place to enter for me yet, but that BUOB from Friday early AM (from were I sit) was indeed a nice entry! Too bad I was sleeping.
Chart:
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hope all is well FXV, always liked your charts and am in agreement with that outlook as well
Mike
Let's talk turkey.
Since the markets are not highly predictable - if they were, we'd all trade much differently, how do you two guys come to arrive at a bias? Unless you are talking lower time frame...
I'm very curious about people do that - especially in light of where we are on the chart.
Do you find it helps? I am personally trying to avoid a bias, which might be impossible, because I'd hate to close myself off to the other two potentials - continued flat or the other direction.
The last time we were at this place, the EJ ranged for 2 and a half years.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
No substitute for trusting your own analysis. And I'm as guilt of this as anyone else. One of the main areas I try and work on in my trading is to avoid "forum confluence"
Hee hee - I find forum confluence to be an excellent indicator. Contra-indicator.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Personally I play less attention to round numbers (every 100 pips) on daily and weekly simply because I have noticed they do not really have any dramatic effect on the price.
Most of the time weekly and daily pin bars will be working also without looking at location.
On the other hand, I can see ton of PA setups on the 1H which do not work.
Yes - until you have existing confluence as at these round numbers. Confluence is the key - right? Most round numbers don't mater - until they do... ;-) Getting above where we are will take a big and sustained cash infusion to get it to go - in my uneducated opinion. It may happen, but not cheaply.
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IMO, it is simply because the weekly and daily contain much more information in them (info of a longer period). They are not effected from the noise in the market. When you look at them, you can understand where price is going and what happens in the market. On the other hand, those 1H bars are nothing really important. They can show a sudden movement that have no meaning for several of reasons like: trades took profit, SL trigger, news etc.
Yes.
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I think using the round numbers on the lower time frames like 1H is much more effective, simply because most of the order flow of the intraday traders, is based around them. Many times I see a pin on the 1H between round numbers and against the trend - they do not work. There is nothing to push them.
Joelcf posted an explanation of what he sees going on inside of the bank he works at. pretty interesting and why round numbers matter.
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When price heads into a round number, many times it will hang around it for a few bars period - that is the time when all the orders trigger. I have talked to another trader yesterday that is trading for a few years already. What he does, is placing a buy stop above the round number and a sell stop below it. When price hangs around a round number for a while, and triggers all the order flow, it will eventually go in one way many times straight to the next round number.
Not an approach I personally would have the stomach for, but I can see how it might work.
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I think that most of the trades aware of what I have said till now, but their problem is to predict the direction. By the price action setups James is teaching, we have the advantage to know which direction.
-So basically, to sum it up:
- on higher time frames, round numbers are not THAT important. - A smart way to trade the lower time frames will be looking for a clear PA setup off big round number because then you have the orderflow pushing you (Am I right? ).
Yes - and notice that the big PPZ's form around these round numbers.
On the lower TF's I am guilty of not taking notice of them. That makes no sense - speaking from experience. Since the light finally went on, I've been working to keep notice of them in the front of the mind, until the habit is ingrained. Part of creating a new habit is to talk about it and verbally (typing in this case) the expectation. So, you are sure to hear me babble more about them for another month... I am a 'learn one thing at a time' guy. Always have been.
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By the way, PPZs here are easy (on lower TFs), because most of the time those round numbers on the 1H are the PPZs already (the big round numbers, aka order flow, are creating those PPZs ), so if I see minor PPZs in the way, I can use them to manage the trades - But not to base a entry of a trade off them.
Yes, and that is where discretion comes in. And a little experience to understand what is a minor PPZ and a Major one. Long live the Demo!
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Ohh and by the way Mike, I think you once told me that you do not trail stops on lower time frames, but look for targets. Am I correct?
Yes - Targets on the lower TF's. I don't have years of experience on lower time frames, so a simple target helps my psych while I continue to acclimate to them.
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Sorry for the long post hope I got the things right.
Nah- perfect! Very good input and reminders for me. I wish I had my ducks in a row like your are when I was 16!
Ben[/quote]
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I had a recent question about this somewhere in the PF with these two charts
I formulate scenarios in my head, not neccersarily a bias. I don't like to be bias either, I think it cloud judgement. I just stare at a chart enough and I see what is the "likely" scenario.
>snip<
OK - I've seen you do that a lot. I do much the same.
When we get to areas like we are at now with the EJ on the daily or weekly, my sense is that I just gotta wait and see because anything is plausible on those time frames.
It is the 'bias' thing - I'm just very curious to crack open a skull and see what people are thinking and why. I drive my boss nuts.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I found three errors in a very advanced book on Topology while going to school. I was a Discrete Math maven in college - for some odd reason it was 'intuitive' for me. Have not touched it since.
I looked him up to discuss it, he disagreed on two of them - until I called him back up with a written proof... I think he is still pissed.
Stalker indeed...
BTW - a friend of mine is a big telescope fan, and got me into it. We actually ground our own mirror by hand and had a guy we know at Eastman Kodak coat it. 16 inch Newtonian we made ourselves. We used to sit with bags over our heads for an hour as far away from the lights we could drive so that our eyes were sensitized to any light coming in the scope. I'd have packed them in dry ice if it would have blinded me..
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Originally Posted by james16
i can testify to this.
your a lot like me.
i drive a lot of people nuts.
just recently i contacted a physics professor at cal berkley because of something he wrote about pulsars/ astrophysics. this is another one of my hobbies. ive had telescopes so big it required two people to set it up.
took me 3 weeks to get thru to him and he flat could not believe i was some 50 year old guy in texas reading an obscure paper he wrote 3 years ago.
ive called him 3 times now and i can tell by his voice he thinks im a stalker or something....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Thanks SP for your reply
I have started demoing these setups off round numbers on the 1H, but I am very picky with them. Usually I will take a PA trade off a round number only if there are more confluence factors (I like clear divergence), space (so there won't be something to block me. I have no intentions to hold positions on this TF), and of caourse if the PA bar itself is a pitbull and not a chihuahua And by the way, if the next bar won't break the PA bar, I will cancel my order simply because the lack of momentum (that can be a sign...
Good for you that you manage to wait for the sick animals to limp by.
I think you are at an advantage not having to run with the herd in the corporate world. One lesson you learn fast - if you want the higher pay grades bigger bonuses and Option out the rear (real money) and a job you enjoy - is that you work hard to influence the process around you in a manner that pays off for the business.
You learn to grab the wheel and make things happen. Sometimes by skill and brains, sometimes by deft handling of personalities, and sometimes by fiat (my personal favorite ... )
These skills will positively kill you dead in trading, and it is very hard to unlearn - believe me!
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I was just curios if Mike plays that much attention to round numbers on daily and weekly charts.
Yes - look a the PPZ's and see how they line up. Major round numbers. 1000's and 500's often.
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Ohh and this is something I found - it draws your round numbers automatically plus you can set alarms when price hits those lines it can help you on the lower TFs.
Just browsing through some charts. USDJPY is drawing a bit of attention.
Inside bar followed by BUOB/ doji type bar.
Failed to close below 61% fib retracement level.
There is a little bit of a mess to the left that could act as resistnace and is a concern, however if taken I would look for price to reach 95.00 then take profit and tighten stops.
Any opinions welcome.
Sorry for my chart, I will post from photobucket in future.
Cheers
You've gotten the bead on this pair already from others, so I'll just say this -
No need to use photobucket to attach a chart - just do it like you did. Works great and tastes like chicken!
Welcome to the forum - seems to me you've been doing some homework. Looking forward to hearing from you more and more!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
As you can see, this is an example of a non-hard break (orange). lol (see hourly chart)
Now it still may work out because I do like the confluenced location. But no hard break and I'm out.
Sometimes it might be the time of day, and this pair is sooo S L O W... New PB broke about an hour ago. I personally like these kinds of areas to trade. Nice, well defined range. 4 hr had some divergence as well.
But it seems like this is angling for a bounce north - but i hate to take on any bias on purpose...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
wait a minute . . isn't that a 1-2-3 bottom on the Weekly Eur/Gbp?
This may change things. lol
1,2,3 - A,B,C, baby you and me... oops - I was channeling the Jackson 5.
like i said, i hate to take a bias, it messes with my brain, but I am very interested in strong PA at the 61.8 fib shown in the chart, or perhaps as a pullback on a breakout of the channel. Gray boxes are some target areas for north and south moves from our range.
We've poked through the 150EMA, let's see if it stays there.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
That range is pretty tight. Pullback on a break, with confirming PA looks like the best way to go. I'm sure Mike would agree.
Mike would also be looking for an eclipse on Jupiter... Confluence.
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Just thought we would range a little longer, that's what they do most of the time, right? lol
Yeah - whatever comes is goodness. This pair is pretty slow - traditionally speaking. If it goes lower, I'd be interested in where the channel bottom would go. I could guess - 8450, 8400.
For now, we track the game...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I always look at the overall trend before I go into a trade. It is suicide not to. You gotta know the environment you are trading into before you do it.
i don't think we talk about this enough. I will take counter rend trades, but I am pickier about entries than usual and conservative on targets. On the whole, I do not trail a stop, but in a few cases I will.
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However, and this may be a bad habit I have picked up here , I dont mind a bit of a scalp on a quick countertrend move. But you have to realise that you are trading against the trend, and act accordingly. Its a short term trade, it could go against you at any time (and go against you HARD) and you really need to manage your risk well.
A solid bar, at a PPZ, at a round number, with clear divergence on the oscillator of your choice. narrows your choices down, but you'll win more often. Set targets in CT based on PA.
Shoot - the most successful do these things with the trend... see a pattern?
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But act stupid when you are swimming against the current or let your guard down, and your ass is probably gonna drown.
Your ass will drown if have not proven your ability to float with the current first.
As usual Joel, I like reading your thought stream.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hi. I want to know how many different price action figures there are?
I know that there are Double bar low with a higher close and other basic figures.
If anyone of you have time could you please tell me what kind of a figures u know? Thanks.
This is PinBar. Tough and hard hitting.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
of course you might see things different, and you are welcome to.
EURJPY - 4Hr (8AM EST Open) BEOB.
I love a great OB, but this is one of those I pass on.
Not a swing high, not dramatically larger than the preceding bars, trading right into a PPZ/135.00. These kinds of trades make it hard to do anything but watch it, so standing down. Just a stress burger for me.
Sometimes these work out well, but zooming out, we are in the middle of a range and in a tricky area.
Sooo... waiting until we get to the outside portions of the range...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Got long on EUR/USD cause inside bar was broken on H1 and price found support on 21 EMA.
Was this trade ok?
Not sure myself as I don't trade IB's as a matter of course.
One thing I can point out is that you'll be a lot better off sticking with PB and OB's until you learn them. IB's, to trade well requires more experience and light touch
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Shame on me for not taking this trade (I do not really regret I followed my rules...never a bad thing to do..I guess..).
Maybe I will get another chance...only if a A++ bar will form, as I like.
This time I will get in because:
- looks like the trend is turning: higher lows and higher highs.
- Instead of diving into a round number, like the previous setup, this time I will be bouncing off a round number.
- The horizontal line is the current breakout pattern after modifying the lines.
I like breakouts, but unlike Mike and others, I only like the horizontal lines for a breakout. I cannot always decide where a TL should go, and it makes me uncomfortable. Trend line break guys are the smart guys around here...
In the case of this pair, Lets hope for a pullback and some solid PA to the 8700 in the next few days. But it would not be a surprise at all if price right back into the horizontal channel and stayed there for while ... Comfy and warm in there....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Nice BUOB on the 4hr.. gonna wait till the news is out of the way tomorrow to enter fully..
+Rejected lower levels several times
+Strong size
-has been playing in this area for several days
Luca
Post up your chart. I have a possible BUOB forming on mine, but the TF's are likely different.
For this one on mine -
It is about at the bottom of a daily channel , but that channel ain't pretty
Is it AT an extreme? No - not good
It is on the 1.0600 and looks like it will close above
It is not larger that surrounding bars - no good
Will it close strong - not likely at this time of day - not good
Is it with the trend - Not Good.
It is not getting past the nearby bars - not good.
Trading into a PPZ (marked)
This may just go well - but I can tick off a lot of reasons to skip it. Juicier bars occur almost every day. This one is heading into all kinds of turmoil. IMHO.
Check out the marked PB on this chart from 7/30/09. Nice size. At a round number. Nose is nice and long. Close of PB is low on the bar. (strong). at a PPZ and the 365 EMA. Stacked confluence with some space, and worth waiting for. That and another trade It made the month of July for me.
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hey SP you are really a funny guy,I have just read the last pages a found this oane.
I have lought to this like your recent replay to james post about what he was doing: " wtaching Porn "
wish you the best, and keep the funny attitude
I have nothing else. All that is left is a sense of humor. That and a cat I really don't like. And the ability to pick on Jim, because he does not know where I live and hence show up at my door and beat me senseless.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
What you have then is plenty Just learn to like the cat (while accepting that the cat may never like you in return...)
I mean, what more do we need in life than a sense of humor and a cat?
Cheers
I guess so. Cats taste pretty good. I make a great wing sauce...
Beer - one needs beer. And I have some at home waiting for me.
The other day he reminded me of a Pin bar. I made some noise that startled him and he shot about four feet straight up and right back down. Perfect form. I shouted "SELL". My wife looked oddly at me.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I did not see the 'mortal lock' trade today. Boo hoo hoo... Mostly eyeballed the 4 hour.. I'll know for sure within the hour if it stays that way.
Sheesh - this place needs a couple of Olde English fonts. It would help immensely to make a point if I could use one.
Where is Merlin when you need him?
9PM EDIT
Nada. Good night all. There were a couple of borderline trades I skipped today in the Yen pairs. They had resistance right below and were not at the extreme of the swing. Tomorrow.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Here is a pair I rarely trade. The last trade was a dinger!
A hourly PB just formed off of the 1.9500 and in the area of some older-than-dirt lows (May of '96). Not going to trade this particular bar, I would rather hit the 4hr or daily for this pair.
It is on the watch list now....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I've been meaning to ask, what is the significance of the 365 ema on a H4 chart? I can understand the daily because its a simple way of averaging a years worth of price data (even though there's actually only 5 or 6 bars per week), but what's important about three hundred and sixty five 4 hour bars?
Just something that works as S/R. There are a couple of trade setups using the 365 and/or 150. It also adds a nice layer of confluence. And that is the key - Confluence. This setup may be discussed (?) somewhere in this thread. Anyone have a pointer?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Is the common practice just to add the spread to wherver you move your stops too? please let me know if I am being unclear.
Good question - I'm not sure at all what most do, but I tend to ignore the spread - be it for good or ill, that is what I do. I kind of look at spreads as the 'cost of doing business'.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Funny, but I look at my trade record and nothing ever came 'close' to not taking my stop. It has blown through it with some authority, but never nicked at or it inside the spread.
I must be a mutant of some kind, but I've never really cared about it. I bet on the 15 minute charts I would though.
Something me to ruminate on.
Ok - done with that. I still don't care... I'll pay for that I am sure...
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Originally Posted by TiaForex
That's the way I look at it. I always get something, either money or education.
Dmc,
The reason we need to be aware of spread as you mentioned is those ugly times when we get taken out even though our stop wasn't hit.
I always have a mantra in my head "Buy at the ask, sell at the bid, bid price shown". Which means my charts are based on bid price. So I am fine when selling (or taking profit on a buy order which is also a sell order). But any time I am buying, I will be buying at a price not reflected on my charts. So I need to factor...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Guys (and girls)
Can i just clarify as to whether the 365 and 150 are simple, or ema?
On page 1 jim quotes the 365 as well as a couple of other ma's as being simple, yet somebody a few pages back mentioned a 365 ema.
So far i've had them as simple, and they work very well as an additional confluence!
Thanks.
We use EMA's.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hello, I have a double bar low with a higher closer then must I open a long trade like below?
Yes - that is correct - but I'd stick to the quieter time frames of the daily and weekly while you learn. Just scroll back to the charts and pick up every PB, Outside Bar etc and see where they run to. (Hint - a PPZ, but sometimes they run and run and run....)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Geeze Joel - I am glad I was sleeping for this one...
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Originally Posted by joelcf
Ima draw a picture. It isnt a Monet; it is more like a crayon drawing. But...
The S&P is at a precarious place at the moment - the rally, fuelled largely on speculation and hope, has petered out. Is it overbought? Is there more bad news? No one is certain - even Ben is 'cautiously optimistic'. The broad sentiment is that recovery has begun, and the worst is over... but the majority of the rally was simply a correction of the massive overselling. So you have a healthy dose of fear and doubt, but mixed in with enough optimism and positive data...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
no, no.. I saw aj hit rac's favorite yesterday, but picked ej and gj instead.
I'm now wondering about fiber. I saw some 'well known' news casters on the first page of FF proclaiming EU to shoot higher, but I saw that PB with divergence and thought 'no way, they must be wrong'....
.
EU presented a 4HR BEOB this morning.
Everybody wants it higher, but the news from the US is stronger than from Europe on the economic front. I don't think anyone would benefit from a higher Euro these days. The crowd is a great contra-indicator to go along with PA...
babble mode: off
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I would and did use point A. The pinbar is between the 50/61FIB, which to me is a good thing... But much more importantly... the strong rejection of 0.88.
Could use divergence as a confluence... but remember that divergence kills in a trending market...
Peace out,
Josh
I love this - one pair, two different sets of eyes, and two ways of seeing things. Welcome to Trading.
Here is my take. Not ready to bail on this long yet. There is a trend line to get busted first. me thinks it may take another run at the 8800 - despite the nice OB on my 4hr chart. I would not trade that bar myself. Third touch can be the charm.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Not to mention the fun and games when your boss/some jerkoff editor/etc decides to change things around at the last minute (often for random, arbitary reasons) and completely screw up the entire publication. Regularly.
Moving from words to numbers is the best thing I ever did.
At four chapters a week without regard to our schedule
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Nah. You cant be Livermore without occasionally wearing a sack/barrel.
Not that I actually want to be. Livermore, while clearly a brilliant mind, was also a degen gambler. And there is nothing cool about that.
There is just something about the reaction you get when you tell people you just shorted orange juice/pork bellies/etc..
And damn you are a harsh critic
Yeah - I am. No doubt about it.
I see people idolize the man, and he is the poster boy for the ultimate fail. I don't even tell people anymore what I do. All they do is get a look of fear in their eyes that I'll be standing in their driveway in the morning with a tin cup in hand.
Sample dialog:
Me: I trade Forex.
It: Uh, what is that?
Me: You know how when you go to Canada and they exchange greenbacks for Loonies?
It: Yeah
Me: Well, the exchange rate changes, and I make money on that change.
It: OH MY GAWD - YOU ARE GOING TO BURST INTO FLAMES!!!!!
Me: Not once in the past two years ...
It: Well, no one ever wins in trading. I read that in the paper. CNBC even says it cannot be done.
Me: Well, I know some who do pretty well, they are teaching me.
It: You better be careful - there are people who do this for a living and they are the only ones who can.
Me: Yesterday I traded a ~1.5 Million dollar buy of the Loonie
It: OH MY GAWD, SOMEONE CALL THE PSYCHIATRIST!!!!!!! SHUT HER DOWN MAUDE, SHE'S SUCKIN' MUD !!!!
Me: It is OK, I won that trade pretty easily. Made over $2,000 on it.
It: Clearly, you are the devil
Me: Where did I put my pitch fork ?
Nice. Thanks for listening. Send me your Bill. I feel much better now.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I agree 100% Joel. I have till now 18 winners and 2 loosers from these trades!!! It works!
This is a trade I have missed cause I wasn't around...but it was on my list and I would being taking it without a doubt if I was around.
It is a clear breakout pattern. Price tested 153.5 four times, broke through, pulled back and produced a BEOB. I don't see any major round number in the area, but I do not use them on breakout trades.
This is a great trade, and has more room to move before it turns...IMO
It happens all the time, and it works!
By...
GJ Breakout - that is my kind of Breakout. Nice Flat side. OB to bust out. Run Forrest, Run....
Ima try them slanty lines too... I do trade off them, adding a break might not be to difficult...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Benji touches on something very important. Trading is simple - but not easy, because we the trader makes it hard.
Set up some immutable rules based solidly on what you read here. Want some validation? Post them here.
Paste them on the edge of the monitor.
Watch the charts n the time frame you've selected. Time frame is in the RULES - right?
When a bar meets the criteria, enter.
Exit at your target, or what ever method the rules dictate.
Easy. Now the trick is to park your brain at the door, and stop making stuff up that keeps you out of the good trades and in the bad ones.
There is not much more to this. It is all in your head.
Demo the above until you are profitable 3 to 6 months straight. CLEARLY profitable. (See post #1)
Hope this helps. When the light goes on, you;ll see that this is all there is too it. Even the RULES are simple.
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Originally Posted by benji533
IT IS DEFINITELY ONE OF THE EASIEST THINGS TO DO.
Hey supermatt, it is all in your head!
I am telling you, I did a little research, read smart guys posts, built my method (or their method, lol), and apply it. It is really simple.
Trading is not a complicated thing at all. I really enjoy it.
I do not understand why it is so difficult to so many.
I am doing a very simple thing. Believe me I am the last one to be a genius here..be sure about that.
IMO, the trader is the only one that can disturb himself making killings...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Yeah, but lets THINK on this instead of sticking with the simple, obvious and true.
Come on Joel!! It is a nice PB. Nice form and shape. Shoot, if I were an Outside Bar, I'd buy it a drink and ask it to marry me! In fact, if you look - the top of a range that is being put in is at 95 - and that is over 100 pips for a little risk... Dude - I could get 2R out of this trade!! I don't want to miss it. It is right at the bottom !! May I also point out that there IS some divergence??? In fact, it is at a DAILY PPZ - I might just hang on to some risk and give it a chance to run. Run Forrest, run!
I hope this illustrates what kind of mental process will kill you off.
Joel's thoughts were on risk avoidance.
Mine was on gain.
WHAT WORKS IN THE REAL WORLD FOR YOU WILL KILL YOUR DEAD BUTT AS A TRADER.
Don't be liquidity. Identify risk. Remember PRICE TRUMPS EVERYTHING. That PB may work out, but look at the PRICE FACTORS working against it. I guarantee, that the moment that trade executes, you will die inside. You may wonder how I know that...
There will be another, vastly superior opportunity today. That is why we can wait for an A+ trade.
Thanks Joel, for being my foil. You are a gentleman.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
The old me would have taken this one. Pinbar! Off support!
The new me sees a bunch of resistance 10pips above, choppiness, a small pin following a big bearish bar, selling pressure from two big pinbars in the last week, and going against the daily trend.
]
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
we have certainly been blessed with some setups of late peeps.
did anyone else get this one(gbpaud)?
this is a classic example how understanding orderflow and what traders are doing and why, will allow you to trade that little better.
not only was this pin with the trend,it traded back to a key level and then broke resistance sucking in buy orders.......then bam,you get the classic dump,caused by buyers covering longs-forces price down even harder due to newly initiating shorts and covered longs.
gotta love that.very cheeky
take care all.
You bet your bippy!
In fact - caught the run up yesterday. and the run down last night. Entered on the PB.
I was hoping to see more to the upside, but momma did not raise a fool, when the pair ran out of gas at that Resistance we dumped. That PB was an unexpected pleasure. Up late for that one! Up again at 6AM, and low and behold... 1.9500 busted like Citibank. Walking the stops down now.
This is a pair to watch now. We are not far off from all time lows. There is nothing but clear air between here and those lows 600 to 700 pips away.
If you have the pair, wait for a proper pull back to enter.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
True, but I am also a massive nit when it comes to this stuff. Still somewhere in the concious incompetance stage of things - im a dumbass at it, but at least i realise it now - so I dont trust myself to take anything less than the A+++ trades
I skipped this one, for instance.
I really think i need to take a leaf out of your book and just commit when I see something that I know will work.
Don't go pasting my pages around your book, it will F it up.
I saw that trade too. Skipped it. Too much crap in the way and I hate the gas it gives me.
Flying by flight rules is what keeps us from hitting a mountain.
I fall prey to 'I wanna increase my take'. So naturally, business dictates that you would do more of what you do. More advertising, more sales, more products, more stores, just more.
Trading is completely opposite. Less is more. If you want more opportunity, we need more markets. And just how many can we handle? Limits exist.
Want to make 3 to 5% a week on the four hour charts? 2 or 3 trades a week. But you have to be ultra picky. We had some great examples posted here this week.
Go back and look at the great trades. What characteristics do they have? I bet you'll find commonality.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Just wanted to clarify something though, how do we set rules on Location? I don't see how I can put it in words .... help needed or maybe someone can post their rule here hehe
Look at the first 20 pages of this thread. Then look at this weeks posts on great trades. Then you tell us. Seriously.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Entry, as you might recall was at Midnight EST last night. Price jabbed through the support and round number 1.9500 - a substantial Round Number PPZ combination. There isn't a fib retrace, as we are at an extreme.
11 hours later a minor retrace finished with a small PB. It is not a great PB, but the location is almost perfect.
Up 260 Pips on the initial order on the 4 hr PB and 80 pips risk.
Added to payload on the 11AM entry and am at BE+ on it (40 pips risk). Those bar bottoms are right on another round number (1.9400). And they broke thru. This one is up 2R as I type this.
This has real potential to be the trade of the month.
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
muchos gracias & rightly/wrongly just played a dbhlc on the EURCHF at Resistance, with medium trend, near value & 50 fib albeit into some chop. FIRST time playing a dbhlc. Lets see & thanks again for advice. I did a course out of Australia on PA & whilst v good no mention of OB's, dbhlc let alone triple candles.
After a bad (impulsive) week I feel better already.
He G-Man. The EC was a winner - congrats. Personally, not my cup of tea - the bars making the PA were too small trading into that traffic. And no divergence. Hopefully you are out - it is retracing with a vengeance...
The best areas are at swing highs/lows without accompanying congestion. These can be played, but I don't recommend it for people getting going.
You've positively landed in the correct place! And it is Free. NO Secrets here.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I hear that. But I cannot separate the method from the man. The two are completely intertwined.
Think of it in the way a method actor like Robert De Niro goes about his business. He spends a ton of time becoming the character. And it works.
I suppose there a few tidbits a dude like Livermore can teach. Not much of it good.
My two cents
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Shorting orange juice futures just makes me think of the movie Trading Places...
And regarding Livermore... nothing wrong with wanting to copy the guy's trading skills. But I don't want to be like him in any other respect.
But then almost every one of my idols (Livermore isn't one btw) has feet of clay, areas of human weakness where they couldn't replicate the genius they showed in their areas of greatest strengths. It's all part of being human to me.
So I'll learn everything I can from Reminisces of A Stock Operator regarding trading...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Those fancy slanted breakouts just look trickier to me. I have not worked through them, so it is an unscientific impression. Much like thinking the world is flat, because it seems that way...
I DO like playing trend lines though.. Something newer to the arsenal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Hi SP,
I was thinking about it....I think horizontal breakout have more potential of a longer term move.
Breakouts work because of the orderflow that is build around these areas, but maybe it also works so good becuse basically after the break, there is no trafic in the way? That can be true for horizontal breakouts.
On the other hand, trending breakouts will always have kinda traffic in the way - horizontal traffic.
I have never thought about it before...I will find time to back test my charts on this and see if it really works better...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
BEOB on the 4 hr reversed today's gain. My chart closes the day in 6 hrs, and Sydney gets rocking in soon... err, as much as Sydney rocks...
4hr Chart tells the story. Mind your back side!
Daily chart is interesting, because the area we are on top of is an old consolidation zone. (Sep, Dec, Jan, March) It is not unusual for these old zones to become the new zones again.
BTW - the bounce came off the lows of 1.2240-ish....
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hi - and welcome to posting here. I'm impressed you've read so much. Lots of material. Make sure you pay special attention to the first post. It wsa updated recently.
OK - the Pins.
The first did not fail, but did exactly what you'd expect - ran smack into that wall of resistance just above it and rejected hard. Just not a great place for it and not very big.
The second - that PB is pretty small. Sickly.
The location looks good for both of these - at first blush - but upon examination on where it will go... Not so nice. You look for 'room'
Post some more - you are on the right track
- Old Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by eternal_wndr
Hello, guys I am on post 1k something, so pardon me if I am not up to speed, but I am demo trading Pin Bar setups to get more experience, and here is what I have witnessed today on 4H chart. Surprised no one has brought it up yet.
In this chart what is circled, is two Pin Bars - or at least that what I consider to be one.
I took the long trade on first bar break, thinking it was a valid bar and also occurring at swing low, but as you can see next it followed by another somewhat pin bar looking candle, which only reassured me to stay long, only...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
i have just been watching a few of mikes vid clips from the j16 website. Its been bugging me for some time as I see several people use it. How do you get a pen or pencil tool for mt4 so you can draw free hand with your mouse?
or is it something to do with using screen cast software and it being a feature of that software itself?
Hi SuperduperMatt
IT is the annotation tools in Camtasia. Camtasia is the recording tool. Not nearly as heavy as the Macromedia stuff.
BTW - ever hear of Super Dave Osborn?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Can anyone explain James' email today? It was kind of vague speaking of an 'alternative demo process'. Didn't quite understand what he was talking about....
Take a price bar that is a PA bar.
Pick the spot to where it will go. Primary, secondary etc. Rinse, repeat. Do this as the bar presents itself or F12 through the bars.
That is the demo.
I have done this to an extent, but not rigorously. I am going to because it is a big help.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
We need to get a Kids table around here.... and I will be sure to be seated at it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
LOL
Here in Israel we have 2 months of vacation between grades, July and August (summer). At the middle of next week we go back to school...for the last year - and then to the army for three years
Till then my plan is to save money for a nice account
@ Jarroo - You really liked that post eh? thanks man
I am thinking about using round numbers as points to enter trades as a pullback point of a PA bar that already occurred - in other words, play PA more aggressively on the retrace of it, with much smaller pip stop. I have thought about it basically because I know that there is order flow at these areas, and I know that the market moves in waves.
Where will be my stop? I see the bunch of bar lows below the round number, so I have placed my stop right below them - that will be 15 pip stop!
I think that this was the most difficult thing to get through my skull - that PA not only can give you an entry, but it also provides targets. For exit and entry - if you wish.
I know more than a few of the traders here use a retrace for entry - it is very aggressive. Most (??) will set the stop to the par side of the bar, and hence lower the # pips making up their position size. It is more aggressive, but if you are schmart and choose only A+ setups, you'll prosper. Moving to on a bar break is, in my opinion, a must.
What I liked is that you saw that those bar lows and set a SL behind it. PA is more than an entry method - it will allow you to manage a trade in progress and possibly get a better entry. There are a number of ways to achieve this. Think about that one.
Nice work - you are keeping your eyes open.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Tell yea the real truth...you will find me wandering around outside during most of the lessons I hate?.history, literature, etc...I'm a bit (a bit?sure) hyperactive, so I do drive my teachers crazy lol. But I do have good marks for classes I am ok with
Mom and Dad would kick your tail across the room if you did not!
Quote:
You know..in one of James PMs, he told me "do not make it your job". That is really important IMO. Personally I do not have tons of money I can trade and get rich from overnight. I do not even think about it that way. For what do I need ton of money now? Worst case I can ask my parents for money if I really need it. I trade because I enjoy it mostly. I can spend many time on it because I like doing it. If it isn't fun, it will be way harder.
My father always told me to pursue what I love to do, that money tends to come to those who are good at something - no matter what it is. I have found that to be truth.
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I see many people set monthly targets of ROI like 10%-30% that they plan to achieve every month. It is obvious they trade only for the money. That is a very bad and dangerous habit IMO. That is being greedy.
I just take what the market offers me. I know this from different psychology books. In order to be successful in this business, we need to control ourselves. We can't control the market, and that is what we are regular to do in our daily life style - to control others. The only way to succeed in this market is to control ourselves and fit...
Yes. The business world teaches us to set goals. Revenue targets, delivery targets, performance targets. It is a great skill for most jobs to set a concrete revenue goals and hit it. Not so in trading, because as you point out, we are not in control of the market movement.
It is not unusual thought to think through what our method can obtain for us on a continuum. I have not had a zero dollar month, the one of the slowest months for me ever was July - and I was gone for about two weeks. There is always something - just have to be available to take it - and that is pretty hard sometimes.
What is reasonable? It depends on your method, your skill with that method, and your availability to the market to apply the method in a skillful way. 2 - 3% is very nice for most traders on a monthly basis. And you'll be beating nearly any fund out there. Most here have a job to attend to. But I know a number of traders who pull in a significant weekly percentage. And I am glad they do not publish it - as it would be damaging to most.
But let me tell you why I am doing this. Money. Period. And the things that the money will allow me to do, and that is the real bottom line.
I've been poor, and I've been rich. Rich is better. That, in and of itself is not greed. Greed will make you do completely stupid things. So will being poor.
Just get good at this. The money will come. Dad told me this a long time ago. And he was telling the truth.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Superb stuff Joel. I always learn so much from your posts. A great explanation and totally in keeping with the "keep it simple" ethos.
What's next? Joel16?? Thanks for posting that stuff Joel. These wiggly lines and histomamograms have some use, but understnad what they are!
Quote:
I am an overthinker by nature and want to keep my trading so simple that I could do it drunk. In fact, I really do want to trade like a robot. See the same setup I've seen a hundred times before and pull the trigger. I don't want too much thinking to cloud the picture. Otherwise I'll start wondering if it's the "right kind" of divergence or pinbar.
Drunk? That's an idea... Rules help. I know you know that, and use them, but for our newer traders, RULES rule.
Quote:
I have an British Ivy League style education that I was very proud of until I realised that it was getting in the way of my learning in so many areas. Rac once told me a story of how in his trading circle the doctors and lawyers and accountants were far from the best group. Who were the best group? Farmers.
I don't know who said it first, but the admonition was to 'park your bran at the door'. Every time I turn around, I learn that all those great skills for the 'real world' will just kill you as a trader. I have almost nothing left.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Nasir - can I suggest a different way to say it? It will help.
"I had a good month, made a couple of mistakes, but I did not lose - I am at break even."
That is the truth and a better way to voice it. It is positive and will keep you beliefs about youself in a good place.
Cheers and congrats. Not many can do as well as you did with these mistakes!
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey Nasir
You do have patience, but it is something we all continuously practice and work on getting better at. All traders no matter what level have to work on it. But guess what you learned a cheap lesson that you can learn HUGE amounts from. I have seen many before in your shoes, and they have come out far better then they were before. B/C it is a lesson we all must learn. Don't take away from your progress, simply use this to build on in the proper way forward now. Slow and steady.
Head high sir!
Mike
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I suggest that anyone trading 8%, 15% or 50% of their account has another look at these graphs from p 2763:
Stick to 2%. Seriously.
I'd suggest no more than 1% max until you *know* what you are doing and have proved it with a nicely accelerating equity curve. This will not happen real fast.
It is the psychological aspect that will get ya.
It is just my opinion.
If you go live, half a percent per trade is even better until positive returns are the rule of the month in month out activity. This will not happen as fast as it did on the demo.
Learn on demo. Jump into the shallow end of the pool, hang onto the edge as you go deeper, and let go of the edge, when you KNOW you can do it.
Time is on your side. Use it. It is your friend.
JOEL - BTW - I am planning a 3 continent, World Tour soon for my job. Sydney is on the itinerary ... we need to chat over a couple cold ones.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Outside bars are played from extremes for best results.
They can be played as continuation, but you gotta know the landscape price is moving into.
In this case (see the chart) the BEOB is not really getting us past a zone, (PPZ's are zones, not hard lines), but into a consolidation area, so at best, I'd expect some trouble right away if the bar broke. It is not unusual for old consolidation areas to become the new ones, and sometimes price just rejects off them anyway.
I cannot prognsoticate what *will* happen now, but I see a Small Crappy Pin Bar formed... if it breaks through he current location, 153.50 is a nice area to watch for PA again.
See more in your notes below
Quote:
Originally Posted by wwtravel
Yesterday, I was looking at this BEOB and almost got into this trade....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
See the chart - it is a working trade I am in from a couple 'o days a go.
See the "x"? That was the point I suspected price to hesitate at and have some pause. It did. Check a lower TF for confirmation.
Look what happened - old resistance became support. That minor area acted like a magnet for price. And it bounced off again at the check marked bar.
I don't know about you, but it just makes me giddy to see price do what I suspect it will do. In fact, that PB two bars earlier than the checked bar - meant nothing to me. I would not have shorted it because of the location. It sucked.
Just wanted to share my grins. (I do wish it would move a little faster though.... )
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
awesome trade, I rode the down leg, didn't get into the move up. however, can you illustrate a little bit more of your reason why the bearish pin two bars before the checked pin meant nothing to you? isn't it at the location of 61/73 fib retracement + test of uptrend line, and 0.9250 resistance level? a lot of conflu there.
this isn't intend to against your view, just want to understand the points you are viewing, I am sure the points I didn't see here is something critical, I guess. thanks for your attention
The move to the old top had not finished and I see no resistance at 9250. A fib by itself is not very meaningful. The trade into this (which closed as I slept) was back with the trend as well.
I did not take the trade down, as I did not have a 4hr bar on my chart to indicate a trade possibility.
What constitutes an A+ trade? Here are some things I look for, and others may look for more.
Simply:
A properly formed PA bar
At an extreme, or,
At a PPZ
With confluence (big round number, fib, divergence - which ever of these fits)
Space, not in traffic
Room to go - not trading into a PPZ
Cheers
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
First - let me say I am glad you had this experience. Being up 16% for August was some fine work. Killing it off in one morning was superior.
Now you know why it is stressed to be solidly profitable at least 3 to 6 months in demo - because if yo cannot do it there, you will not do it live.
Consider this a sign post as to where you are today. Based on what I read below, you are getting close, but days like this one disastrous day have to become a thing of the past.
Keep at it and work on that all important self control. And please, figure out why you did this in the first place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rikrok
Hi All,
First to say thanks for all the posts I get to read here, this thread has really taken me a long way in my trading. I don't get to post...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
London has sunshine??? Never would have guessed. Been there more than a few times and seasons, and it is generally not... Last time the sun shined when I was there, I was in Hyde Park. Nice place. Fed some swans.
Well, counselor, what makes you a good lawyer: bending the actions of others to your will, will kill you here - fast.
What I suggest is this -
Make your rules to trade by. Set them in concrete and use the next 3 months as a personal test to simply following those rules to the letter. Write them down. Immutable. Chant them. Live them. Love them. If a trade fits the rules without using your imagination, trade. If not, skip it.
If you can do that, you can become a trader. It you cannot, it does not mean you cannot be a trader, it means you have some more work to do ridding your mind of the conflict between controlling external things, and the fact that in trading you cannot control anything - with the possible exception of your own self.
You must learn to skip the crap setups, and when they run, understand that it was still crap and you should be rewarded for staying properly on the sidelines. (My damn cat crapped on the floor of the bathroom today. It has a nice hardwood floor in it. The hardwood floor did not make the crap any better. It was still crap. I hate that cat. My wife is pissed. Cat is oblivious.)
I suppose one or two bar types is enough for now. I started with Pin Bars and Outside bars at extremes only. Daily and weekly only. I add one thing at a time after I have complete mastery of the first things. Mastery of new things comes faster after the foundations are laid - and learning to live by the rules will save you over and over again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rikrok
Storage Pro,
I suspect there was some unconscious reasons at play.
I don't buy into the 'unconscious' stuff. I think it is a crutch that people use to make excuses that work for themselves rather than owning up to simple truths. You'd be better off believing that the "Devil made you do it". In this case, you got greedy and took crap setups. Your fault. Not some shadowy inner dude walking around to sabotage you.
Quote:
I work in a very rule bound regulated environment, doing things by the book is everything, so following trading rules should not be a dificulty to me.
First - following rules is very hard to do. Lets get around that notion that it can be easy. It never, ever is. Human beings are not built to follow rules. We want to make our own decisions and do for ourselves. Learning to follow rules is hard, but it is a habit that can be learned.
Quote:
However, I also have a somewhat rebellious nature at times, so enjoy subverting rules on occasions, when I get the chance to get away with it. And winning whilst subverting the rules can be a part of the game.(As a lawyer by training it comes as 2nd nature to attempt this now and then)
Ah, the sweet sounds of truth. But remember, this is not a game. Not at all. See how your real life skills are the kiss of death?
Quote:
I think you can see where this is leading... I know this is clearly not a trait to allow into my trading.
Everyone fights this. You can get good at seeing the problem as it arises. I speak out loud at the charts when viewing them. When I hear my thoughts, I catch my personal BS stream... Saved me more than a few quid... and my wife and son think I am crazy...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
One trade only. I'll take these once a day for the rest of my life and be very happy.
EURCAD on the 4hr. Out at the 365. Tastes great and less filling.
Nice OB. Great size, at a swing low. Blew right past the trouble at 1.5550. (I expected it to stop there, but noooooo !!). It closed above the previous bars and the entry was well clear of the 1.5500.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Bust out with strong PA (an OB would be COOL) or Gimme Bearish PA... The only trade worthwhile on this pair in recent weeks came Friday. while I was jetting across the continent munching on crappy peanuts.
No more chop chop please...
Baby needs a new TV....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I was in Hyde Park myself today. Weather is just too darn good to not walk around town at the moment. I love London in the summer.
Hey - on one of the boundaries of the park, there is a covered bench - covered over with a very nice wood and stone thing - like a miniature bowl that a concert might be played in.
What is that called? It is near to a pond where Swans float about.
Across the street there is a "Super Store" I took a pic of it - it is as big as a closet. Cracked me up.
All this London talk has me wishing for a nice Curry...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
It's not called anything in particular but it's near Lancaster Gate. Nice area.
Get to London and the curry is on me SP.
Ah - I remember that now. The park is really big.
I'll keep the curry in mind! I can get around pretty easily in London, the Tube is excellent and the Cabbies are highly amused at the Yank jabbering endlessly in the back seat.
Hey peeps - once you 'arrive' as a trader and the dough piles up, put London on your 'must go' places. FWIW - NYC, Tokyo, Beijing, Athens, Amsterdam, Munich and Toronto are also great stops. You'll need just a few pinbars.... More, if you are like me and spoiled into First and Business Class travel only.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I am not in favor of micro managing a daily trade. I find it is a simpler matter to manage at the time frame you entered. Highly experienced traders might use multiple time frames, especially for entry. Personally, when we are approaching a critical PPZ, I will watch down to the one hour for an entry - if I am able to.
A good example right now is the EURUSD. It has broken out of a range and passed 1.4500. Now it is in the midst of a retrace and I'll be watching it as close as possible for a bounce or a forceful cross of the 1.4500 - with proper PA. The gray box straddles the level I am watching by 10 pips either side.
What works for me is plotting out how I will manage it as price arrives at predetirmined places. I know how/where I will get out. I know when I will move stops. My road map is in place when I enter a trade. If I cannot figure it out, I have found that skipping it is the best thing for me.
On this trade, if it pokes through to 1.0870 (bar lows) that would be a good time to limit the risk at the least by moving a SL up.
..
Quote:
Originally Posted by tlindle
think I may get out of this one soon, not much push to the upside and it could be tough getting past the 1.0800 level again. miiiiight hang around until 1.0740 as there's some support at the 1.0750 level and a break through that would seal the deal
what's everyone else thinking?
oh, and nice to meet you all! been reading around FF for a while, not posting much. was always around break even with my trading but recently this thread has given me a push into more profitability, like so many others here. you guys are great, looking forward to posting...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Some will disagree - feel free to do so. i won't lose sleep or money over it. I think it is instructive to look at a sub-par bar from time to time.
CJ 4Hr.
hey look - an outside bar (marked)
Hey, cool - it crossed the 85.00
hey cool - it closed in the bottom third
Hey - an entry 10 pips off of the bottom will clear the bar lows to the left. (white dashed line)
Now scale it out. Hhmmm... bar highs on the four hour....
Now look at the daily - trading into the PPZ
Draw some fibs...
this trade may run for miles and miles, but just because it is a OB on a round number does not make this trade a good setup. So rather than acting like "Jo Jo the Circus Boy" (no offense if you are a circus boy) look at the area a bar forms.
In fact - I like to see upcoming areas FIRST, mark them and then stalk a bar at that locale. it keeps me from getting in a lather over crappy bars, and lets me sleep at night.
An 'A trade' a day keeps Jim's voice from ringing in my ears.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
What Joel and Mike shared with you is like lightning in a bottle. Money Management done properly will keep your from ruin and will allow you to compound your returns.
So many traders figure the MM is n lots per $10,000 of capital. That is the fast train to where you will find the rest of those who tried and failed.
Lately, the dailies and weeklies have been slow, and not many setups have been there. Winning traders thrive in this kind of market because they can sit on the sideline and wait for a quality setup - and hence preserve their capital. (Shoot, even the 4hr charts have been a drag lately!)
Really happy you found the thread - cannot wait to see your charts. Everyone here will help you.
mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monroe
joelcf, your the man bro!!! thank you!! I get it now... Wow, exactly what I was looking for. I have read about position size, I just didn't completetly get it. You explained this perfectly, that's kick ass. Thank you very much for taking the time to do that.
mbqb11, thanks a lot for your reply as well, this post by diallist is excellent as well.
I have learned so mch from this this thread alone in the past week, it's unbelievable!! I am going over some of the PA stuff again, learning more about how to use confluence to...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hey SP! Thank you a LOT for this comment! I have recently started to learn from you guys and I am in my first month of demo trading and I must say I found it rather hard to spot good setups lately on the daily charts.
That is the way it goes - HOWEVER - let me say this, good setups are EASY to spot, the trouble you are having is that they are not there - be patient and think long term. What you are experiencing is wanting to trade (aka 'make money').
Quote:
The first one I spotted in the weekly USDJPY chart played out extremly nice down to 92 just as you guys predicted. However I trailed kinda tight and got stopped out with a small profit... There was small pin bar on the daily chart when it retraced and bounced off 95 on august 23rd. Unfortunately, I didn't watch the charts those days so I didn't reenter.
Beware of small Pins. Small bars can indicate a lack of momentum and committment on the part of the large players.
Quote:
The one trade I am really satisfied with was shorting USDCAD from the 2d Pin around august 16th, where the stop was so small that I could open 2 minilots, take profit on one and trail the second for more profit. This one was the trade of the month for me in this first month
Cool.
Quote:
Unfortuntely, after that I had 2 trades where I took full bar losses, so I am basically at break even now. But more important than that is that I think I do start to get the feeling of the way you guys are trading. I still have lots of material to go through and I'll probably join the PF after I find the time to check out the guest material.
Did the bars suck? Bad location? Poor form? No Confluence? If so, learn from that and think of the advantages of having skipped them.
Quote:
I got a question about PPZ lines though. I am still not really confident where to draw them. Is it right that you use both bars extremes as closing prices to draw them? How far back do you look in the chart? On my screen the daily chart fits until mod october 2008. Based on this I see a strong PPZ on USDCHF at 1.1800 for example. Would this still be valid if the prices goes back there in a few months?
Practice. There are major PPZ's that are strong, long term and well defined. Some are shorter term - weeks or months. There are minor intra day PPZ too. Look for the PPZ's on the time frame you trade on.
Look at the USDJPY chart. The PPZ we are on right now shows up on the daily and weekly very well.
Some pairs display the PPZ very cleanly, some are sloppy. Very rarely are the PPZ's sharply defined lines - they are zones, and the zones can be fairly wide at times.
Post a chart or two with marked major PPZ's - we will help you out all you need.
Cheers!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
question for James/Mike/SP/Jaroo/RaczekFX/other experienced traders
do you guys keep a journal of completed trades? do you find it helpful or unnecessary? I try to always take a screenshot and mark my entry/exit points, although I'm not sure how useful this will be in the future
YES! I do all of that. I do this so I can watch myself closely as I evolve, and it helps me to see good and bad trends in what I do.
I can see myself doing less of this in the future because I would not consider myself a man of deep trading experience. That takes many years. I learn and relearn something every single day.
I was looking back a few years recently and it made me queasy ...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Some of the people around here have more depth and experience and it shows with their lazy-ass methods. I hope to be a lazy-ass someday. I really do.
(I hope Mike does not get mad at me... probably to lazy to... )
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey Tlindle
I keep a very basic spreadsheet. Stop size/ take profit/ pair / date/ bar trigger. I used to keep a very detailed one and it helped me get to where I am now. It kept me accountable and helped when I wanted to go back on trades. I am afraid as my trading got better I reverted to my lazy self as I was in school :P
So I highly recommend it. If anything the tediousness of it will make you want to be more picky so you don't have to do the paperwork
Mike
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I have sooo much work to do on my day job, and this is just making me get further behind... But I like it!
Putting things into my own words, here is what I do.
I look down the road. Any trade is going to have to pass by previous PA. That PA will give you clues as to where price will possibly stall or reverse. That is it. What was support will likely, when breeched, become resistance. Big honking round numbers can likewise do the same, but you'll find PA where that is happening anyway.
The key is to do the things you need to do that keep you from having a loser while you trade for a runner. Get into one of those and managing is simple. Demo various ways of trailing a trade till you find that which you love.
All that said, depending on the market conditions, I target trade too, meaning I get into a trade knowing precisely where I am getting out.
So what do you do? Look down the road and see what is in front of you and drive accordingly. Stay out of the ditch and protect your capital. Smart trades have enough clear space in front of them to make it worth while.
Cheers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
Just posting a trade I took this morning.
definitely not the greatest looking pin bar....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hi guys, there is a pinbar on daily EURAUD.
The pinbar itself looked good, but there is divergence (Chart1)
and when I zoom out, I can see that the low of the pinbar will hit a very strong PPZ (Chart2). So this bar is no go?
I think there are much better opportunities. Look for bars at swing high's and lows and a bar that is significantly larger that the preceding bars. That and there is a local price flip. This area is a tough one. And price is headed back into that blasted channel..
Look at the attached chart - the marked Outside bar was a nice one. Confluence out the wazoo! Perfection.
Big Bar
At a big round number (1.8000) shared by a PPZ
At the 61.8% retrace
At the 365 EMA
These are totally worth waiting for. Take the months of June, July and August this year. You'll find a trade (or more) in each of them that was worth waiting for. What is even better, the great setups don't often draw down at all. (Jarroo pointed this out once. Won't forget it.)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
i swear, sometimes the market just likes to tease me.
LOL, that bar treats me like the girls in high school did .... all talk, no action.
I passed on this last night - scale the chart out and look at the big-ass PPZ it is trading right into... if all the interference you've got marked was not enough! Oh - and did we all notice that this POC bar is in the middle of all the longer term chop?
People with a lot of experience might be able to trade this bar, but then again, people with a lot of experience did not get that way trading these bars either...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
That analogy works almost *too* well! Back when I was just starting out, I would have jumped at the chance to play this one - after all, it has a decent enough shape at first glance... but now, you couldn't pay me enough to waste my time on this trash.. It's all about finding the A++ action
I cannot resist...
I jumped more than my share - and got slapped a lot...
I better stop right there...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
It will make you lose your hair... be verrry careful.... (Makes you think about that crystal ball everyone talks about.)
Of course before anyone gets themselves into some kind of foaming lather, and blindly jumps on a short, look at the landscape. There is a HUGE MASS of bar highs right below going back to the beginning of June.
Of course no one knows what will happen, but the upside potential is very nice. The short side is full of slop and chop. I'd sure love some north bound PA.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
As sure as the sun rises tomorrow morning, someone is not going to like this response.
That much time is not helping.
Working hard is a good thing of course. Work smart is far better.
Tell me - how hard is it to:
Draw a PPZ?
See a PA bar that is bigger than the preceding bars?
Draw a fib and measure a retrace to 50 - 61 percent?
See that the PA is formed at a PPZ along with some sort of confluence? (Divergence, round number, fib)
Notice that it is at an extreme or at least a swing high or low?
That it is not trading right into a PPZ or into very tight sideways traffic?
Those are all you need.
The hard part is to not make junk up in your mind when you see a bar and avoid the dance of the sugar plum fairies.
Before this sound too simple - time and practice is the only thing that will make you better.
Cheers mate! You have the tools, you should be encouraged! Hope to see you on the PF!
Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990
ps: as more as I read through the FF I have the feeling that a majority of the people who really are successful are ex student from james class. In the near future I'm planning to join the PF, but in the meanwhile I'll study hard(for eg yestarday cost me 11 hours,
and in average 8-10 hour/day)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
2) I cannot find any confluence or PPZ at that area
Has not reached the 50% Fib, nor the Whole number
If it is slightly higher, may have considered but personally I think no space
Not sure if I am right lolz
Watch this one from the sidelines Tradertt, that is the smart thing to do when you are not sure. You cannot lose on the sideline, and you will grow in your ability to evaluate trades with experience - if you stick to identification of the best trades.
PS - draw the top of the fib retrace from the swing high of 9/9 to the bottom. Notice where the 61.8 lines up.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
This is something you will have to figure out what works for you. First and foremost, you will need to focus hard core on the right trades. A+. These have a tendency to run fast and hard, and therefore give you a better chance to manage the trade into nice profits.
Your question indicates that you have noticed that PA always seems to go to where we'd expect on a first push, and perhaps you'd like to take advantage of that. DON'T EVEN THINK IT. Drink poison instead, it is faster and less painful.
I'll give you an example of a decent trade - it is not a primo A++ trade, but it is darn close.
The GBPCAD Today had a nice BEOB on the 4hr and broke out of a horizontal channel. (Marking a channel is another discussion with as many opinions as people.)
There are also some near term bar highs about 35 pips below the bottom of the BEOB, and I had the availability today to be at my PC when price hit that area to move to BE. This is crucial - If I take a trade that is less than perfection, I must be available to move my stops to BE. Period. (I learned this the hard way)
If that bar was smaller - or closed inside the channel or at the bound of it, I would have never
taken this. The size and close of the bar indicated strength to me and a certainty that I would see price in the trouble zone soon as well as having a good chance to move right on through it. Even the round number - which had a PPZ associated with it, was no match at all.
It hit each marked location and "Bang-Zoom, to the Moon, Alice!"
I don't know how far this thing will run, but if you look at the charts, we are approaching the area will price is very likely going to retrace. I'll preserve the bulk of the trade profits with a stop tucked behind the freshly closed Small Crappy Pin Bar and a few bar highs...
Notice where I talked about R:R? That is right, I did not. One of the big problems with this, or any forum is that it is a 'forum'. You get a lot of opinions - most of which are entirely unqualified. Maybe even mine. I am an idiot with an Internet connection. Don't get lost in the noise.
...
Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt
Guys I do have 1 question for you all today though that came into my mind
I know James, Mike, Jarroo etc do not talk about risk reward in a trade and often don't take a full bar loss but I was thinking
I often see people taking profits very early 0.3R, 0.5R, 0.2R
and sometimes, not often (of course the more experience you are the lesser you get hit by a full bar loss) you take a BIG full bar loss (1R) which totally eats up all your previous profits and even bring you into the losing zone.
What are your takes on this?...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Though not replied to me, I did like your post a lot. Also, because it addresses my confusion too. I recently talked with a guy who suggested that the RR may be more appropriate to judge based on the method of trading and not purely based on SL/TP....
If the set up is A++ and the method is good then as soon as you are at BE the risk is 0.
Ain't that cool???? But again, you gotta take the A trades to make this work and to not freak out from taking sub par ones.
Quote:
Another proffessional trader suggest that SL is to put to a place where it prevents us from account collapse and recommends personal responsibility and involvement in pulling the exit trigger when the set up turns to be wrong.
He is a book writer or trades for an institution. Obviously, this guy is not risking his own skin. He makes ZERO sense. Think about it - the trade moves against you. Do you really have the sense under fire to take appropriate action and close the thing? RULES. Self control is not in the domain of the stressed individual.
Quote:
Either way, I can tell that I got stopped out many times because my stop was too tight, no matter how right my direction had been. There may be also additional pressure when the price is close to the SL. I admit that was day trading, so I am looking into PA on higher TF.
Good move. Day Trading is much more difficult (It moves very fast) and requires a much stricter adherence to the rules that have been proven to work as well as a maniacal focus on A+++ trades only.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I know all that "game of probabilities", "losses are part of trading" yada yada. And I accept it. Never going to have a 100% win rate.
But...
I hate losses. Hate them, hate them, hate them. I hate drawdown and I hate losing. It's actually a psych weakness, puts me in mind to do crazy things.
My last loss gave me a bad stomach ache. And I only risk 1%. Imagine what 2% would do to me.
I guess that's why I am here. Jim's method when operated properly, gives the possibility of a very high win rate.
Confession time.
I took a fairly dumb trade today. (I am being kind) and of course I got zapped. I swear to you, I starting sweating and couldn't think straight. I had to walk it off. People were asking me questions and I was fairly incoherent...
I don't think the loss bugs me - it is the process I undertook to get the loss. I did not look close at the surrounding bars and traded like Zippy The Pin Head. (Pun intended) Too bad too, because I had some sharp wins today... I printed it out and marked it up, and I cannot stop looking at it in disbelief. It is like an awesome traffic accident. I'm rubber-necking my own trade!
About a month and a half ago I took a perfect Base trade. At a PPZ, Nice shape, right of the 365 and it reversed HARD and bombed. I just kind of laughed at it. It was the right kind of trade - 100%.
No, I will NOT post the chart of todays wreck. A man can take only so much persecution.
And now I hear Jim's voice in my head....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I imagine a lot of people go through this, and very few admit to it. And yeah, there is a difference in the feelings I have with drawdowns and losses when I have taken a trade perfectly according to rules and plan, versus drawdowns and losses when I've acted on a hunch, been silly, or followed someone else.
The second one makes me want to gnaw my own hand off.
Yeah - I've learn to ignore the herd. The USDCAD is a great example - lots of interest in seeing it go North - and a bunch in it till it died a hot steaming death.
Me - I was in it - went to BE as per my rules and got stopped out for a small +.
I think that this is the biggest reason that I do not post 'live' to either a journal or here in the J16 thread. That and doing so messes with my head because I have a big ego. If you knew me, you'd know why - I am ultra smart and cool. Chicks dig me.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Don't forget though, this is at a swing low. We want to see bearish pins at swing highs. I am not saying this won't retest the lows, but we must be aware of this in the decision making process. I am still one to say avoid these until you can get them down at the j16 placing.
Best
Mike
In fact, I would not be surprised if this pair started to chop and consolidate for a while now between 92-ish and 90-ish. We are entering an area where it has done that before. History repeats itself, and PPZ's are not the only thing that repeats!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Never know. I remember the good 'ol days when a Saw Buck got you $1.50 of that colorful stuff they hand out in Canada. Weekends in Toronto at a great discount. Them were the days, my friend.
Busting lower now would put us back into another 425 pip consolidation zone.
My only bias is that I play the PA appropriately.
Edit - what would you think if I said this thing might consolidate for an extended period of time? It did it from Nov 07 to Aug '08 in a 550 pip range. How long could this one go? Mid December? Nothing would surprise me anymore. Unless the calls for LONG died down...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I went thru a period where I was pretty sure that the method was BS... and Jim was a scammer ... Believe it or not. I DID find the BS, it was inside of me. Since then I got profitable on demo, and then went live.
I remember the light shining a whole lot brighter when I saw Mike's "Cherry" video too. It was a Eureka moment for me.
Now the hardest part of this is to keep the concepts simple and trade the best setups. As soon as I get sloppy, or start making crap up, I get clubbed on a trade.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
I've been uber reclusive watching heaps of your vids and James' over the past.... 2 weeks or so? ^_^
Your "pinbar that hangs out like a cherry" setup, concept of space and trade with the overall broad trend put together was like someone flipped on a really massive high intensity light in my head.
Fiji's stuff made me look inward deeply as well.
THANKS MIKE!
James is right. If you can't make money with this material. Forget about trading. =)
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Yep, It's a interesting pin in a RN+little divergence. But we have in a clear downtrend, so this is a counter-trend trade. Also, Look all the resistence that you have above that pin. And I know that Mike would like this trade if the pin would be much bigger.
Move stop to BE very quickly could be a good idea. o better stay out.
IMHO.
I would not touch that PB even with a scammers money. Big 'ol PPZ right in front of it.
The PB looks rather shapely though. Reminds me of the girls in High School - seemed friendly, but hit very hard...
Quote:
Originally Posted by manperm
Great insight, Ikki! I didn't even think about that ceiling of resistance waiting to push a long trade back down. Sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees. I think I'll ride the pine on this one and just watch it play out.
Perm -
Here is where *real* rules will help. One of the rules might read something like:
"The break of the bar must have at least 50 pips of headroom before the first trouble spot"
That way you can move to BE, or take profit that is reasonable. A rule takes the thinking out of it - along with all the usual BS our minds play with us in an effort to rip your heart out.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I've have been trying to follow james PA strategy for awhile, but there are a few points I have trouble with. My biggest problem has been managing trades. I seem to get into trades at a decent time and make some pips then the trade turns on me and I lose all that profit and take a hit.
Congratulations! Your are almost home.
Quote:
1. When do you guys set your stop loss to break even? Do you do this the second it reaches break even,or do wait until price goes up more so your trade has breathing room?
I have a rule to handle this. You need to find out what works for you personally. You can move your stop after x pips to BE. You can take partial profit and move the rest to BE. You can simply notice where price is going, and take full profit there. Better setups generally yield more pips and they tend to run faster.
They key is to make a rule and stick to it like glue. You may find after a number of months, the rule needs an adjustment. Keep track of the options and add it all up. What will the equity curve look like - and can you stand implementing the rule? I find, what works for me is not often what I think I'd like to do.
Quote:
2. I live on the west coast so my best trading times are from 12am-8am. I'm usually not around to manage any open trades at this time, and any trades I take usually go my way and then turn on me and I end up with a loss. Do you think I should set a take profit for the trades I will not be around to manage? It hurts to see a trade go my way and the get stopped out early, but it hurts just as much to lose altogether.
I think you answered your own first question. Read my cry-baby post from yesterday. I hate losing like poison.
Personally - I am moving to Spain someday in order to allow myself to trade the meat of the market - both Europe and the American markets. I am even learning to speak Spanish. (That and I LOVE Europe. They just do things so well) Pimsleur is very, very good for this, and I am speaking the language daily at work.
Quote:
Thanks
You are welcome. Again - you are close to the goal line - the hard part is what to do once we see a good setup.
Please ask for more clarification and post up some charts showing what you believe would work for you. It is fun to help out where i can.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Ugh - if Mike would slow down on the vids, it would be easier....
Mike - do you recall which one that was?
I'll look around again and fire off a note.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rikrok
Hi SP...can you point out which one of the many is Mike's 'cherry' video please?
I may have viewed it before at some point but don't recall, I've looked through the PF and can't see one called that so I suspect it has a different name....but , I certainly don't want to miss out if there are any Eureka moments to be had
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Bobby Brown. She was the Goddess of Star Search. And got bounced in the finals because she made this video. I watched that show religiously when she was on it...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
As always, you are interesting to read. Being an active trader, I read these inside the machine posts with an eye aimed at finding a nugget or two that will help me refine my trading.
The question is this - what part of this info actually helps?
My sense is that not much really does, although a little knowledge about what goes on provides some level of comfort that I am not 100 percent blind.
For example, order flow is interesting, but do I need the knowledge to know what a good PB looks like? No, I do not. Do I need order flow knowledge to undertand what strong order flow looks like? No.
I am sure that there a few bits of microstructure info that help (Osler writes some actionable stuff) but diserning what the gold nugget from the butt nugget is a big task for us outside the priesthood.
The floor is yours.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
After doing some reading I know why order flow occurs at variuos places. It is pretty much all I need on that topic today. Tomorrow, I may realize a gap that might be filled and help me out.
What about "space"??
I've thinking about this - space as a prerequisite to a trade than moves well after PA.
Clearly, the bigger players take note of minor ppz's and place conditional orders there. I say clearly, because almost always, price reacts at it. No space means a lot of orderflow not in your favor.
In the case of space, I surmise that since there is no traffic, price will flow in a natural manner with more and more being added to positions to drive till exhaustion or a solid PPZ is encountered.
My best of the best - my personal hit parade consists of these trades, and they are there every month.
Now the comment about the psych side of things.
Since I know from hard experience over a number of years now, that waiting for the best setups pays off like crazy in account increase and peace of mind, why is it that I still feel the pull of the less than beautiful?
I think that my brain hates me.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
That is so true, lots of people that master what they do get into the market and expact the same. The people that do the worst are the Doctors / teachers / and IT type people because the job is the same thing over and over and the market is not that.
I'm an IT guy - work on the vendor side and I have gotten to be very good at what i do. It ain't bit twiddling anymore though. I figured exactly what Ryan says above - this was just another job.
It is not - it is completely different and the most of skills in my day job do not apply. To be honest, once I really came to understand this, it was really refreshing.
Quote:
One of my friends up in NY lost a little over 1 million in the past 12 months trying to get the bottom of the banks, well he never got it and walked away for some time off, he offered to pay for me to come and help him out lol I just do it over the phone now for free, but to be honest most people in the market are like him, they do great at a "real" job and just and try to do the same thing in the market and get hammered.
Ouch. I'd be mortified to bring that to my CPA... He'd make me feel worse I am sure!
Quote:
I come from a IT field and when I got into this my last mentor told me I am going to have a hell of a time trying to get something that works all the time because it's just not going to happen, He was right too I wasted LOTS of time looking for the one setup I could trade over and over without a loss and it's not there.
I think everyone does this. No matter what you do to tell people otherwise. It is the old real world expectations and skill set clubbing you again.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I have an Aussie mate here who is going home for Christmas with his family of 4..
He keeps asking me when the US dollar is going to get stronger..
I said, at this rate its going to be on par by then. he is shitting himself..
We both came to the States in 2000... when the aud was @ about .48-.50..
getting shafted both ways is kind of annoying
At this rate your friend can buy California soon... and it won't be soon enough!
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
If you ever figure out the answer to this one, please feel free to share it. I'm still stuck in the gravitational pull of the B/C trade, and escaping isnt as easy as 'just say no' (even though it should be).
It has gotten better with time and experience - I've experienced the effects of the sub-par bar enough to realize the trade-off is not worth it for me. (Some of them do fabulously well). I've even forward tested these bars, on demo with demo bucks, and I have to say, although many of them can be closed in the positive, too many cannot, and every one of them is a gut wrenching experience for me. I am finding I like the easier stuff a lot more. (I have a 12 year old boy, and he provides me ample "excitement", I don't need any more)
These bars no longer represent the Borg (resistance is futile) to me, but a well formed bar now makes me inspect it and the surroundings closer to ensure I see all the risk.
Perhaps the right emotion is disapointment? "Such a nice looking young bar" Ugh, it has cooties. Maybe if I am *real* careful... It could be a lot of fun and give me something to tell my buds about. but it still has cooties. Darn, that would have been a good one."
My brain is out to get me. I better keep a bat close by just in case it gets loose.
It is all about developing as a trader. PeterFM has a section in the PF on this where he talks about his ongoing development. It is really fascinating to read. It is so interesting, I find myself unable to comment on it because to me, it would detract. I am still developing, and from what I hear from the long time traders like James and Bemac, the growth never stops. I can see how!
Boy, this is getting long....
Another interesting thing - Ryanmcd posted up some stuff last night on the points that getting successful in trading is not at all like success in a 'traditional job'. Man is THAT truth. I am pretty damn good at what I do in my day job. The best, IMHO. When I get people higher on the food chain testing me out, I slam it into high gear and lock on. I do not disappoint - ever. I have complete mastery. There is a large intellectual component to what I do, and that is one gift I possess.
But I am also bored to tears now. I have a half-life of 2 to 3 years in any one job, and guess how long I've been doing this one? I know what I want to do next, but I have to convince a multi-billion dollar company to do it. That ain't easy.
I've been a live trader for a third tax return - and I am more interested in this thing than ever before.
I think it has something to do with the fact that there are levels of proficiency, but there is no such thing as mastery. Markets change and no trade is ever like any you've seen before. That and our personal psychology can go straight into the toilet in the blink of an eye. Trading in that circumstance is pretty dumb, but do we recognize the change? Honest, self awareness is brutally difficult, but critical to the process of trading.
I am firmly convinced that a life long winning trader will have to continue to grow. The act of trading, or rather, the act of what we really do - wait and wait and wait for a trade, is really boring. But the menagerie of things we must be, and maintain and improve, never wilts in interest, and is never 'mastered' completely. That might be the thing that keeps a guy like Jim intensely focused and interested.
Anyhoo - I gotta go back to my boredom. Hope a bar peeks out at me today - I'm currently flat.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
If you are the type of person that allways needs to why?? how does this work? then you might not be comfortable trading until you have answered thes questions..
If you are a type of person that doesnt care.. dont need to know why, just that it works. then you will trust what you do regardless of why it does..
does this mean one is better than the other...? Well I guess that depends which one you are..
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
That may be the hardest question of all to answer, 'Who am I?'
Once we answer that honestly the rest can start to fall into place. Then pips will follow.
Or - we will know that trading is not for us and we should pursue another course in life. Getting to that point is gratifying.
My entire point in asking the questions in the first place is this:
I am a curious sort. I like to know 'why'. Mental Masturbation is another term for it. I must do this a lot because my head is still full of hair. I have a head full of junk. My brain is the ultimate junk drawer.
With many endeavors, deep knowledge of inner workings can help. Mostly in areas where exert control or influence - IMHO.
The other day I was talking with a friend over lunch. He is an SW engineer - and pretty good at it. I was showing him some charts and explaining what I do, and his questions revolved around 'why and how does this work'. And then was asking if PA was one of those 'Turtle Systems' that will eventually fall apart when it gets out in the open. (That one made me snicker I have to admit)
He also made the interesting comment "This just looks like a self fulfilling prophecy". Bingo. He got it, but then again, he went back to his dissection routine and lost the big point.
What's my point -
This - I am all for learning new things, but I think it is pretty important to learn how to ignore that which cannot be "actioned" to make me money. Why? Because, as Ryan put so eloquently, "It is Bullshit".
Going back to a PB - imagine a nice big one, at a major PPZ, with space, at a Fib retrace of 61.8%. If your thoughts are revolving around how that bar got formed, and what possible order flow scenarios are in front of it, you need to buy a pickup truck and fix a magnetic sign to it advertising your new grass cutting business.
Geeze - I am full of rants today. I hope it is out of my system before I get home...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
PB, at a PPZ with 50 - 61.8 fib confluence. It is the most basic of J16 trades and favorite setup of many. They happen a lot across many TF's. I also like the combination of a PPZ a Bar and the 150 or 365 too - on the 'first time back', AKA "Base".
For the newer people - notice what is at work here - a good bar at a PPZ with confluence - in this case the fib retrace. Money in the bank. If the trade is missing something, I can assure you that it will be money TO the bank instead.
Regarding your PB reversal on the EG today - check Bemac's ICCE thread - I put a chart up there a few moments ago.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Despite seeming to have opposite viewpoints, I completely agree with both of you.
You poor, poor man. Keeping my company will only ruin your reputation. Just ask my wife.
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I am an absolutely left brained kind of person. Probably a necessity, given what I do. I dont just want to know how something works, but why. And I want to understand it well enough that I can take it apart, find problems, improve it, bolt a supercharger to the manifold and then put it back together again - bigger and badder than ever.
What you do is fundamentally *different* that what a retail trader does - no? Ultimately, only a few things might be bolted onto this to supercharge it. If I have learned nothing else, I have learned that simplicity is to key to the kingdom.
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And that's a good thing. Is it all completely actionable? Probably not. But it gives context to what you are seeing, helps you understand why the bars are doing what they are doing. It's up to you to take advantage.
Here comes a curve ball. I agree. To be honest, I enjoy learning about the inner workings. But again, most of it is just Mental Masturbation.
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If I dont understand the market/instrument/timeframe, I'm not going to be comfortable trading the conclusions I arrive at. Some people are, and that's great. Neither is better or worse, it just depends how you are wired. Different strokes and all that.
At the end of the day, that is a belief - did it actually serve you and make the trade possible, or was it simply a cottony universe of our own making?
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Having more information is never a bad thing.
I completely disagree. I may post up something on this over the weekend if I have time. I used to believe this to be true, but that belief took a pounding about 10 years ago.
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I think the key is being able to balance things, and - like SP said - being able to understand what you can and cant control.
Balance - how does one know he is in balance? Beliefs are different between people. Nations fight wars over them, and religions spawn horrors over them. I see the vast majority of people on the FF have beliefs that I flat out know will kill them.
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I liketo think that I am the pilot on the plane.
Yeah - that is the hard part - no? I have always been in control of the external. I can only walk in the steps of the elephants. PA are the footsteps.
As you know, I am a hound for knowledge. I've read some pretty esoteric stuff on this market - some of which I understand - until the Math gets fired up, then I shrivel up again. But that knowledge has only served as a reinforcement for what I have learned right here - From Mike's rants on round numbers (which went right over my head till I read Osler!) to Jim's fist pounding on not trading into a PPZ.
If a person is willing to keep it simple, and simply make money, beyond there dreams, everything you need is plainly in the open right here.
Getting into trading and making money has been a very surprising journey. Everything I thought I knew to be right and proper is not. Everything! Getting myself to the place I am now caused me a lot of pain. All the old beliefs were demolished and new, useful ones took their place. Retail trading is not what anyone supposes it is when they get in to it.
I envy the really young guys - those who have not had a chance to cement beliefs into place - or even form well informed ones. I think teenagers are best suited to learn to trade - the question everything.
But hey - I enjoy these talks. They are more important than learning to identify a good pinbar. (that is easy) The mindset we need to have is much more difficult to gain.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
A good afternoon/morning all. (I'm going to assume the Aussies aren't awake yet and Europe's knock off for the weekend)...
I recorded the attached trade on GBP/USD three days ago after the BEOB closed (15th). I proposed that the best strategy would be as indicated....
1) wait for price at 1.65408 and go short (non conservative) (17th)
2) wait for price at 1.63908 and follow it short (conservative)(18th today)
I am fairly new to BEOB/BUOB and did not take it as I'm still feeling my way.
It's obvious now that...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Thank you guys for the comment. But unfortunately you are missing my point. At this stage I do not care about what works ant what not. I didn't even look if the div worked on my example chart, I just searched for a double MACD tops and a higher price top.
The thing that I want to know is the reason, sense, logic, factors for this to work. I want to know why. I can't see any sense. It's the same with the moving averages post I had last week, and Jarroo's reply. I want to know why these tools work.
Ben
Ah - ready - here is the answer <drum roll>
Because they do.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
How do you enter? I like breakouts, but I've always taken PA as entry points - a pull back and a bar, a PA bar that gets me out of the range - enter on the break. Got a rule you employ? Many breakouts don't give a PA entry, which provides me a great deal of trade comfort. Am I missing something?
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Crap? is it crap to know what you are doing? Yea, I care about logic.
No, it doesn't drive me nuts at all.
This is not like anything else you could do for a living. And yes, there is some level of knowledge required. Those 'why' questions yield mostly confusion. You will start to see setup that worked for you, but your new found knowledge will begin to give you the "Yeah buts".
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Think about what you are doing. I don't care if it works most of the time. It isn't about making winners. It's about psychology. I want to know what I'm doing.
Ryan has already traveled the road. He is simply telling you the truth. This is not like engineering a bridge. You can read your guts out on Fibonacci - and still not know why it works. It just does. Check out Bemac's ICCE - it works in an unreal fashion. I do not know why, it just does. And I've never seen anything like it. (Bemac has about 3 decades of fib addiction - it comes from that background)
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Playing something just because in the past it worked more than failed, is gambling. You may make money from gambling, but it is still gambling. I hate gambling. I don't want my living depend on gambling.
Then go to college and get a job, because I am here to tell you that trading is gambling. Nothing more. But you can set the odds in your favor through the simple and common sense thing of applying what works and has worked for many decades.
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I don't think that searching for these answers will stop me from "making it". To be honest, for me personally, inside, I am already making it.
With money it gets different - real fast. I have to say - you are a fast study. Congrats. You've got a gift.
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If anyone here knows a website or a book that goes deep into moving averages and divergence - please let me know.
Pring on Price is the best - IMHO. I'd get that.
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I can't believe that one day someone just decided that it works, and everyone followed him. There must be a research process that leaded to these indicators.
I don't know how the pyramids got built, but, there they are! MACD is a way to observe changing momentum. Looking backwards.
Tell me why Axioms are bedrock? Centuries of use and proof. They are unquestioned because they work.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Maybe you and ryan are right. Sorry if I sounded rude. Didn't mean to.
No - not rude... ever.
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>snip<
Firstly, plot the ICCE levels on a channel. Then scroll back on your chart and you will see that they line up with historical PPZs. So actually the real thing that rejects price on these ICCE levels, are PPZs. You can throw any kind of thing on your chart which will line up with price pivots, and then say that it work. So why using all these things instead of just highlight your price flips?
>snip<
Ben[/quote]
Not to hijack a perfectly good thread, but -
How do we arrive at an ICCE levels over and over again that aligns on PPZ's? It is a little odd - no? And sometimes, there is no PPZ - and price halts on it. And why does price tend to run in the diagonal channels ICCE forms? I haven't a clue, and I don't even care anymore!
When I asked Bemac how he arrived at these settings, the answer was 'three decades of work and observation'.
What ICCE gives me then, is confidence to let things run a bit longer - and set targets that are further out. It is a clear road map.
If I spin my wheels trying to understand 'why', I'll die on the vine.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
over time, any pair that trends will show MACD divergence. It has to because this is merely the measure of the gap between two moving averages. Eventually, they will track together. No rocket science there.
That AU - it spins off small PB's fairly frequently.
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Originally Posted by TiaForex
Divergence starts to appear on charts. People go short based on it. Price carries on going up. People get slaughtered.
That's it.
Divergence shows the potential for a reversal but it's not a signal that the reversal is going to happen now. Therefore it adds confluence to reversal PA, but that reversal PA better be strong or you'll get killed.
Look at your charts and see how long price continued to diverge from the oscillator before that divergence was respected and price corrected itself.
Case in point, the NU and AU at the moment....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
PS - I know demo is different. But only psychologically. I'll pass it as well when time comes
I hope so!! That way I can say: "I remember Benji when..." when I am out on the porch talking about the 'old days....
BTW -
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But only psychologically.
That is the whole enchilada. The foundation you are laying is solid, and required, but remember, when the structure gets built on top of it, the stuff below is hidden away.
tell you what - find a way to get live now with a small account. The experience will pay you richly in the future - if you survive the mandatory military stint in front of you.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Yep and that is why I like it to be less then 10 bars on the 5min because the longer it gets the less it works or at least what I have seen, Hell if you go back far enough you can get a 95% loss rate off of divergences.
Sounds like the fixin's for a trading plan to me....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
P.S. The 1st 4 people I showed the market too turned 100k into over a million, after they went live they all quit and blew up in 3 months, accounts range from 5k - 45k with me showing them the exact same trades I was in and when I got out, they though they could do better so did not listen to me. They still enjoy their day jobs.
Goodness no... jeeze, that hurts to the bone.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
You are right. But it was based on a little different style, which gave me the green light. The pin on the lower TF was a B+ pin though (better then mine...it's probably because this month I'm way far far above my monthly gain %...so the adrenalin goes up to my brain lol....but basically diffenetly not an A+ trade )
Ben
Nice trade - I caught the same move off of the 15 min ICCE today. This week has been excellent. Also caught another monster on the GBPAUD that started last night, and finished while I slept.
I love that old ad - Sleep and Make Money...
Oh - and having Oanda take your biz - Good for you. Just let your father know - as a Dad myself, I can tell you that owe him that much.
See you in the pipstream.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I am struggling with leaving my order on with this one, 1.09 is a big level off that round number and 365 ema, huge pin, just afraid of traffic.
Are thinking of leaving a long order on? You could, and I have done so on a PB, but move your stop up underneath it.
Normally, if I have a trade on, and it is in profit, I evaluate the PB this way - if I would in no way trade it, I will move my stop under the bar to give it a chance to continue. Crappy bars sometimes don't do jack.
If it is a borderline or a good PB to trade, I close the order and if it is a great bar at a great location, jump in on the reverse.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
There you go Jaroo.
No break here. Price holding strong!
That yellow PPZ is going to be troublesome... IMHO of course. Check it out on the daily - I say, there are better places to place a bet - if you are looking at the table.
RAC might just get his wish and and the UC will float up a bit - but not like he wants - not yet... December perhaps.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
What was up on the GBPAUD?? 120 pips in 15 minutes and NO bar to get in!!! WTF Joel - help a brother out?
and the AUDJPY this evening moved 64 pips in a hour - headed by a BEOB (Thanks man!) (3R... )
Then the AUDUSD threw a hard fake - moved a bit, and stopped and is ranging - I got out at BE, but sheesh. What is up with all the fireworks (except the AU - could have used some money flow man...)
Heh heh... just having some fun... Nice evening tonight. That AU could have been better though....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
This was a nice one - although not a Daily TF trade, it was of the 4 hr variety. Noon local time bar which closed at 4PM was a no-brainer.
Nice size BEOB, formed at a solid Resistance area (a Head and Shoulders - if you go in for that kind of thing) and the size of the bar was sweet. Don't let anyone fool you - size matters.
So now, the trade is up 3R - AND we have busted the 1.6000 cleanly. I had the luxury of being able to move my stops behind the bars as it got to and through that major PPZ.
It would not surprise me if we consolidate a little in this area, or that small PB on the PPZ may signal a resumption of a runner ...
Lock in your pips or get right out - the problem is yours.
All I can hear in my head is:
Should I stay or should I go now.... If I stay there will be trouble, if I go there will be double...
...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Hi Jason - Welcome - you have fell in among some real traders here who will help you to profits.
No vetting of posts either.
Beware the small bar - bars do nothing more other than indicate order flow -> lots of orders = big bars = conviction and strength of move in the indicated direction.
What we look for fundamentally is this:
FIRST AND FOREMOST - A good area where order flow exists - PPZ's in confluence with major round numbers and 50 - 61% fib retracement.
Second - the bar - well formed and one that show conviction of the market - we want nice footprints to follow in and a good bar give you that.
Third - space - If a bar breaks, and 10 pips after that break, there is a PPZ, that PPZ often acts like a repelling force. Ugh. great bar, but trading into 'traffic'. Also space means that we are not trading through an imediate area of consolidation either. This concept of space is the most difficult to learn, but it is not hard.
Learn to identify these things going forward, trade that knowledge and you cannot lose. Keep posting and you'll get lots of assistance.
Cheers!
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Originally Posted by TraderJay101
Hello to all,
This is my first post on FF. I am here specifically for this James16 thread. I am from the UK and I was introduced to your style of trading by the very helpful Tom, aka The Wizard.
I have been reading through the thread as a non-member lurker, and thought it time I show my appreciation, so THANK YOU ALL.
I thought I would post this chart to see what you thought of the set up and my interpretation. - If we get the pin at close in a few hours time.
Round number at 1600.
Near the weekly fib at 23.60%
Tail piercing the 365...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Nice trade! That's a pretty chart too! Is all you have on your chart PPZs? Or do you incorporate MAs, TLs, and fibs?
Ross
I have the 150 and 365 up on the chart - you can get great 'first time back' trades off of them when confluenced. There is no other use for them.
I 'notice' TL's - but they are not a core component of my trading. I know of some trend line traders, and it can be effective.
I sometimes will use a fib if I cannot clearly see where the retrace is. There is one other use for a fib - hiding a SL behind a level on a long term trade. I pull a fib, look for confluence, mark the area and then get it off the chart. This works for areas of upcoming interest and to manage a move.
These trades do not happen everyday of course, but when they do, I want to have my eye tuned into PRICE, PRICE and PRICE as the way to manage the trade.
Getting in is easy, squeezing the juice out of the trade is much more interesting.
Oh - and don't lose. BE is a gift from above.
Consider this - what if you had 20 BE trades and four 2R to 5R trades in a month??? Bliss. Trust me, I've done this both ways. Bliss is better.
This week was magnificent and I had more BE trades than full winners. And one unavoidable loss. Bliss. Absolute Bliss. A very huge week.
Getting there requires that you master the basics. And be picky.
I recently had an interesting conversation with a trader - who remain anonymous as requested, and I asked about how to eliminate stress in trading, as I tend to feel it too much. The answer was not earth shaking - I KNEW the answer - it won't completely go away, but much of it can be eliminated by:
Drum roll please....
Be very careful, dare I say 'extremely picky' about what trades you take. Only the best suffice.
Why?
First: Because a great setup tend to move away fast.
Second, because it moves away fast, you can get to BE fairly quick too.
Third: great setups have more of a chance to run because they are in 'space' and have room. And once momentum gets up there, PPZ's can get smashed. And it runs even harder.
Shoot - I was not going to trade last night, but I did anyway - and took two trades. One ran like the dickens and the other ended at BE. The BE trade actually was a better setup too. I was done and out in a couple hours with a high R multiple. Mrs StoragePro was happy too...
Both setups were A+ breakout setups. There was a third, but I skipped it - oopsy - it was great too! But no complaints here.
Now for the grand conclusion of my soapbox moment -
Why all this blather? Here is the point:
Everybody is very concerned about the tools. Fib this, and EMA that and RSI love fest. Yeah, those tools are not without merit and are useful, but they are so simple to use a 16 year old kid with a few weeks experience can master them in a day. (Benji )
The most important thing is the process you follow to handle the act of trading. It does not matter if a Surgeon has the sharpest scalpel in the world, if he uses it to hammer a pin into my broken bone. And just because PB majikly appears at a 61% retrace, does not mean it should be taken - it could be in the ghetto of traffic.
Learn to use the tools aright. That is a question of process. Stepping back from the BAR and looking at the big picture. Be maniacally picky. It works.
OUT!
.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I love this. This is what make trading fun, but really hard for most new folks. I see that bar, and would not have traded it. It simply does not fit into the framework of my rules.
But it fit fine with Benji and his framework.
So, now that people see this kind of back and forth, They try to combine it all together and *presto* a blown account followed by paralysis and a deep distrust of a market that will reward you - if you let it.
A small trvth:
Combing everyones stuff here is like combing all kinds of indicators together. It will not work. You have to learn basic S/R and PA and then, through observation and experience, add things in slowly. Only you can drive that road.
My suggestion to all the new folks whose heads are spinning - and I know you are out there.
Learn the basics first - one step at a time. Guys like Ben have a really big advantage - they don't know that they are not supposed to be able to do this. No one told him, so he runs off and does it - and does it very well. I'm am a bit jealous of course.
The rest of us have the overburden of 'life experience' to strip off, and it takes some time.
Excelsior! (the three stooges said that a lot. I kind of liked it)
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Originally Posted by benji533
Wanted to share my coolest trade today (I saved a pic just in time), EURUSD intraday
One like this once a week and I really don't need anything more.
Long term moves are very rare to be able to hold. These are only available when there ia a good breakout pattern, or a very sharp trending market. But most of the time the market is sideways (like james says all the time), and then reversal trades whith small targets are working great. But you still need your confluence. Some use MA's and fibs - I use PPZs, round numbers, divergence (and in...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
How did I know that you'd say this. I swear it, I did.
What you are calling common sense is, in fact a set of rules you follow to get in a trade and then to manage it.
Tharp has explored this very phenomenon with traders like yourself. He has found that everyone of them actually has a firm set of rules - criteria if you will, that governs their feeling - aka "common sense".
It works for you, and I would not change a thing.
But as for rules or criteria, you have them. You just do not look at things that way. You are not supposed to, you rebellious teenager!
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Originally Posted by benji533
Rules? what rules?
This is the point I feel different. I didn't find any single article which didn't mention that "YOU MUST HAVE RULES IN ORDER TO MAKE MONEY".
I don't have rules. Funny. I have never wrote down a list of rules and followed them.
Maybe this is the reason it's so important for me to find sense in everything? I trade a method which made up from knowledge and almost 100% common sense.
Rules confuse me. You need this and this and that and...to fit together in order to pull the trigger.
I just look at a setup and find if there...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
An individual has decompiled and posted source code of mine. After asking him to remove and please refrain from doing so in the future, I was told he will decompile and post any of my code he feels like (Paraphrased).
Que
Nice. We are attracting this kind of thing more now since the commercial forum. You are not the only one abused.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I completely agree - planning is the essence of everything.
I just think some people (not you, obviously) get so stuck on 'rules' that they get into bad trades that they should have been able to avoid, or pass on great trades which they should have been able to take... all because it doesnt fit their rules (which they usually stole out of a book or off the internets anyway). SO they either continue to miss opportunities/take bad trades, or they rewrite the rules to accomodate new information... which makes it a discretionary system with...
I, for one, do not believe we operate sans 'rules' - yes, that is the correct term. Even the most discretionary player, when his trades are teased apart, operate on a very solid set of rules that they perhaps have not articulated or are easily able to. Think about why you take a trade or not - I bet you have a very clear set of reasons, that actually repeat over and over again.
The best traders kind of go by 'feel'. At least on the surface.
For every trade posted here where someone states 'common sense' or some other ethereal reason, notice how they then go about describing the chart.... rules. Longer term traders do get to the point where another sense begins to operate - I've noticed in me - but upon reflection and examination, information was on the chart that in hindsight was shouting at you - and at least the subconscious mind was listening making you feel the way you did.
I had a great example today of a trade I entered and jumped out of for a small loss because of 'feel'. It was a Yen cross, and it stalled - and after I got out it reversed hard. Whew. But I had looked at the other Yen crosses and they had reversed moments earlier - and that got into the dark corners of my mind - and saved me.
There is no hocus-pocus. Just a rational mind - sometimes working in the background.
Now - Joel makes an excellent point (bolded above). That is what happens to every single trader at the start, until market exposure and intelligence begins to form. While what we do here is best described as 'discretionary', think of the rules set (what a bar looks like, a PPZ, location etc) and then the finer points - bar size, minor PPZ's, kinds of traffic that shade traders experience - and soon, if you are diligent, you see enough of this kind of action to fine tune your understanding and when you will begin to act.
Having a set of solidly defined rules gives purpose and direction. If you are a live trader, and you make money, you have rules you use. Period. If you did not have rules governing your activity, you'd either be paralyzed or broke - or both.
Of course you have to read all of the above with the understanding that we are not talking about 'Systems'. Systems do not work.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
You are definitely my favourite forex philosopher. Its a whole level removed from 'hey guys, what about this pinbar?', and I always walk away reconsidering something about how I think or act.
You should write a book. It would kill Van Tharp and Mark Douglas.
OK - now you've lost your mind.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
Western culture - particularly European and North Americans have an ethic that dictates and equates activity as equal to productive work.
Now - what we have to do is *believe* this thing you now know so that you can act on it. It still takes a little time and practice - about six weeks to set a new habit in place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
Hi Guys, abit behind on the thread. Have been trawling through Fiji's section on the PF & doing a heap of thinking & reflecting.
>snip<
It's really the stuff btw my A+ trades that have kept my account at BE.
Firstly, A grade trades dont happen that often, some get stopped out @ BE, others at an "ok" R:R. Others run to the moon, but not THHAAT often.
Secondly, the < A grade trades are alot more common and often result in 1/2 to full bar losses. These little jack asses eat up the returns from A / A+ trades. (keeel dem allllll ...
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
A lot of golfers either thrive on the long ball or the short game. Me, I like the long ball, because no one ever oohs and ahs over a putt, but a 350 yard smoker gets the admiration of all.
Are you still with me?
I once hit a 420 yard drive, and rolled it 6 feet from the pin. Hit it with a 3 wood too. It was the Mother of All Drives and the flight was worthy of an ESPN Play of the Day. My friends still talk about it, and the guys on the green it rolled up to waited to ask me if I did that a lot. Of course I said - yes.
I then proceeded to three putt for par...
How is this like trading?
Some traders play for the high multiple R trades. They might get a bunch of BE or tiny losses before they snag it. (Long hitters)
Some look at the chart, and see .5R sitting there for easy pickens and take these all the time with few losses. (Short gamers)
It seems to me that not many people can do both well because it is not easy to tell how much room you'll eventually have on a trade, so many just play a side. Both are correct, and both are managed differently.
Golf and trading. Who'd a thunk it??? Well, I did.
Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
It was a short time frame one using an entry/exit technique not taught on this thread... although PA is used for timing an entry.
Long story short, it picked up my order and reversed very hard. 15 pips can go by in a flash. Another good reason to never, ever enter an order without a SL...
It happens. The setup was perfectly good.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
I netted 2 pips on my U/J trade that was my worst case senario. Yet the trade had potential to go to the moon. Think about that for a minute. Talk about stress free trading.
I used to think that this was lunacy. Just give a trade room to breath and it will pay off - because the bar said so. It took some time, some time off live trade and back to demo to prove to me that this works well for me. BE is a wonderful place to be. I like to get there are soon as is reasonable.
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I usually manage a trade as you did jon, but instead of moving the 2nd half to break even I would place it just below B/E to allow for retesting while still banking a few pips. Taking profits at the 1st strong level and moving to break even is not a bad way to go just ask James16.
This is of interest to me as well - because I don't do it that way. It is all or nothing for me - why - because it works for me. A seven figure account might change my mind though....
I love reading your stuff Jarroo - you do some things very differently than I do and are successful doing them. It helps me keep my mind in working order: that is OPEN.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
When you arrive, will you let me fly in your private jet? I flew in one once - it was the way to travel. Sigh. CEO's - I just do not know enough of them....
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference
.....but i have my hawk eyes on this "Round Number" for some time now......
james16 thread's 3000th page!
i was here on the 2000th page, hopefully i am still here in the 10,000th page & beyond.
God bless ALL!
My, what sharp eyes you have! To think it all started with:
i thought i would start a new thread to post charts. my question is this and i am sure merlin can let me know the answer. i am not sure if i want to do this yet but how many of you would like me to actually post potential trades. the thing to remember is that two people can take an identical entry and one will lose and the other will win. the variables to trading are endless. anyway what does everyone think. jim
Yeah Jim, post a few charts. You never know, it might help someone.
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It is not what you know, it is how you think that makes all the difference