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  #39004  
Old Jul 27, 2009 7:41am
benji533's Avatar
THANK YOU JAMES AND MIKE!!!
 
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Default Hello everyone + first analysis idea

Hello everyone. I am new to this business (but don't worry, I learn fast )
Basically I am one month learning forex only from the internet and forums. I spend a lot of time each day. This stuff is extremely the thing for me. I am enjoying it...at least till now.
I have also saw all the posts and videos in the James16 guest area. Mike and Jim, I want to thank you two personally. The videos of you two are fantastic! I have learned so much. After seeing all the videos in a row I went to my daily charts and just felt like I know the reason for every move in the price. That was when looked at historic charts though. Lets see If I am right also about the future

I want to share with you guys my AUD/CAD analysis.

In the weekly chart we can see that we are in an uptrend. The price had pulled back in the few last weeks, and now It worth a look to find a entry for a long position IMO. after the pullback, the price is now touching the trend line which is also the 61.8 Fib level. It also bounced from the 150EMA in the weekly chart.

Now If we zoom into the daily chart, we have a Doji. Can I treat it as a bullish pin bar? lets say B or C? (notice that I am on MT4 demo so if my bars look a bit different it's because my broker time zone or some thing like that).
The low of that PB is bouncing from a trend line plus 150EMA plus 365 EMA plus PPZ.

So I think it is a good opportunity going long here some time close.
But where will be my entry, SL, TP?
You can see I have highlighted in blue the previous bar highs. I am sure they will make trouble! My prediction for the price is to go up till it reaches those bar highs. Then retrace to the PPZ that will become support, and then continue rising with the main trend.

So I think the best time to enter is after it retraces to the PPZ and start rising. My SL will be 10 pips below the PPZ.I will take my profit at 0.91200 (Sorry I cropped out the price levels in the right in mistake) or at least move my stop to the low of the last bar in the 4H chart to lock profits.

Option number two the current PPZ line 0.8900 will become strong resistance and the price will break down trough the weekly 365EMA

Guys, I am new for all this. I thought about this plan only after I saw all the videos in the J16 guest area. So even if I said dumb things, I will appreciate if you will explain why I was wrong, so I will prevent it in the future.
Now it's time for me to make mistakes when I am trading the demo.
I will take Jim's advice and save money until I master the demo along a few months in a row.


Weekly chart:
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Daily chart:
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Ben

Last edited by Twee, Jul 27, 2009 2:00pm Reason: Resized charts.
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  #39007  
Old Jul 27, 2009 9:17am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
Personally, I will wait for todays close above the 0.8917 resistance level (wishful thinking)...Then contemplate taking a long position on break of todays high (if close is above 0.8917). I would place my SL below 0.8793 or even below the converging 150/365ema's... (see post# 38989)

Your analysis looks reasonable though....welcome aboard the J16 train.

GregB
Hi GregB!
Thanks for the welcome and the reply.

I think we are in the same mind. I have based my PPZ on 0.8900 instead of 0.8917 because it is a round number (Psycho level). I think that's ok.
For me a good place to enter is always a few pips above the high of the breaking candle wick's (of bar high).
As I said before, good chance we will have trouble at the previous bar highs...lets say around 0.9010 I would like to lock up profits or get out of the trade...that's 70-90 pips gain. What do you think?


By the way, are you guys usually trade those PBs? I know Mike and Jim are very picky with there PBs...they take A or A+. There is also a lot of traffic here, Mike usually seeks for space (That what I have learned from your videos Mike).
On the other hand Jim, you have said that if I can't trade a sideways market, there is ZERO chance to I can succeed in this business....Mike, Jim - different minds or just differed trading styles?

If I will be that picky I will get maybe 1 trade in a month or two.

Ben
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  #39008  
Old Jul 27, 2009 9:21am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Ben Welcome to the thread

We treat dojis as neutral bars, or indecision bars not as pinbars. These types of bars show us that there in indecision in the market place but we do not use these as signals to enter. Not standard james16 at least. Although your logic is still sound, the actual bar itself would be a bar to show us to wait for more information and see what happens from here.

Again welcome and keep posting with any questions along the way

Best
Mike
Hi Mike,

Thanks for you reply (:

Thant makes sense. Do you trade only PBs (combined with other factors of course)?

No PB = No trade for you?

Ben
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  #39029  
Old Jul 27, 2009 12:00pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PippingMama View Post
Hello Ben,

The initial break of the 0.89 is tough (highly confluenced area), I would rather wait for stronger signal or buy above this area. As you can see the price is struggle to pop through this area.


PippingM
Yes I am still monitoring it...
I think it will find a bit range area until we will see a pop out to one of the directions.

PS - Thanks for all of you who have welcomed me. This thread just moves too fast for me!

PSS - Thanks Mike for your reply.

Ben
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  #39047  
Old Jul 27, 2009 5:49pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
And another thing. A losing trade doesn't mean you screwed up, or did badly. It's just another trade. Don't focus on the individual trades, focus on a series of trades.
I agree. I have read once that one of the factors for most or at least many traders to retire or loose confidence is letting themselves think that when they lose, themselves are the losers instead of their trades. The fact is that even the best ever traders have loses. You must understand that your trades are the losers, not you. You can't predict 100% of the time what will be the next move of the market.
If you will let your loses make you think that you are the loser, you have zero chance cause without confidence it's not possible. You are letting your emotions get control on you and on your trades if you treat yourself as a loser.
Separate between your loser traders and between yourself.

Actually I am quite new to this stuff and I am no telling you it from self experience. But I can advice you to read the e-book called "The Secrets Of Emotion Free Trading" by Larry Lewin. I have readed it before I even started to learn technical analysis. It helped me to realise a few things that I think some of the most experienced traders still do not realise.

There are more aspects to treading beside the knowledge of analyzing a chart.
If you do not have the ability to CONTROL YOUR EMOTIONS while trading, your analysis knowledge doesn't have much value IMO.

I really hope you will get better. I am a newbie and I know I have years to practice until I will have the honor to tell this stuff to other. But I just hope it will help you.
I will attach the e-book to this post so everyone can download it. IMO it is a "must read" book for every stock or forex trader.
Take note that it was written about 11 years ago by a stock trader, but because it discusses about the emotional aspect of trading, I think it is relevent and true today exacly like 11 years ago.

Ben
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  #39519  
Old Jul 30, 2009 8:51pm
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Default Hey guys

Hey guys,

So far I had only one trade this week (was too busy reading this thread from the beginning....currently at page 135 busy days).

The gj had a breakout on 4H of double heights, so I entered long 10 pips above the bars heights at 156.41 and got out at 157.43. At 156.80 I thought first to get out because of the crowded heights of the previous bars, but decided to move my stop to BE and continue with the trade.
Then moved my stop to the higher bars heights and price hit my stop before the reserve...so I made pretty 102 pips
Ohh and of curse the break of the bar heights was a break of a PPZ - resistance which became supports, so I enjoined a small SL as well.

Although it was a good trade IMO, can anyone here please share with me reasons why not entering such a trade? This time it was a winner...just want to improve my knowledge.
The reason of myself is the heavy traffic. That's also the reason I thought closing early. Umm...not swing highlow is another point...anything else?


Thank you guys...take care everyone.

Ben
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  #39522  
Old Jul 30, 2009 9:05pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Throw up a chart for everyone to look at
Can't you see the chart? I have pasted it on the post.

ok I will attach it to this post (maybe some can't see images which are posted directly).

Thanks

Ben
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  #39525  
Old Jul 30, 2009 9:56pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Sorry, it wasnt showing up - see it now though.

I think it is a nice breakout trade, but it isnt really a j16 type trade. You have a break of a strong PPZ, but nothing else to support it - no real PA (unless there was something on a lower TF?).

There are some guys here that do alot of touch trading/blind entries - but I dont see any of them here right now.

Breakout trades are kinda dicey, because they fail way more than they succeed.

Nice trade management though, your exit is textbook stuff.

I don't know what exactly Jim is teaching in the PF, but from my tour in this thread, I have seen he was playing breakouts of double bar highs or lows. He was treating it like a PA pattern...at least that's what I have understood (am I wrong?).


Here, look at this chart of Jim...at the right there is a highlighted pattern and he wrote next to it "matching lows trend breakout". I remember more clearer posts of him talking about it, but can't find them now. I'll do a little search.

Ben
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  #39529  
Old Jul 30, 2009 10:15pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
This is actually a j16 style trade, but just what I would consider more advanced to be honest in its understanding and implementation. Towards the more earlier stages of this thread James explains TBH, TBL or multiple bar highs/lows as breakout plays. I rarely trade these as pure breaks. The times I will is when you have multiple bar highs and lows lining up in a more condensed amount of time. This is almost always good for at least a "burst" breakout that gives time for profit or at minimum stop to b/e.

Here is an example chart


Best
Mike...
Yes, I have posted one of Jim's charts a few seconds before your post.
I remember Jim trading them so I treat them the same as other PA patterns.

I have checked them back on my charts and they work well.

Ben
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  #39596  
Old Jul 31, 2009 8:52pm
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Default Weekly PN johnnykanoo found

Here is a pic of a lovely weekly pin bar.

Take note it is John AKA johnnykanoo who found it. He can't upload a pic so I did and added explanations.

Good eye Johnny
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Last edited by benji533, Jul 31, 2009 9:28pm
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  #39597  
Old Jul 31, 2009 9:50pm
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Default Weekly pivot point

Hey, I have just noticed a weekly pivot point at 0.980417, that will be 30-40 pips below the nose, so IMO opinion it will pay off waiting to see if it will break as well before entering the trade. That line can make trouble.

Ben
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Last edited by benji533, Jul 31, 2009 10:39pm
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  #39600  
Old Jul 31, 2009 10:38pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
R:R

Which R is the R you care about most.

Pro's, traders who have learned to be profitable over a significant time frame (not merely a year or two) have learned that risk control is the prime thing.

Rewards follow without thought.(OK - almost).

Hope everyone had a good week. We had some good opportunities.

Yes, I absolutely agree with you. I just saw that traffic and thought to myself "there is a good chance for trouble in that area, so I might look the closest place to move my stop or exit".

Personally I will place my stop a few pips above the end of the nose. That will be also above the trend line and the 150ema.
Hope that make sense? 62.8 of the candle and the left eye are way under the trend line.

PS- of course I won't risk more than 2%-3% of my account on one trade.

Thanks for your comment.

Ben
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Last edited by benji533, Jul 31, 2009 10:53pm
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  #39602  
Old Jul 31, 2009 11:41pm
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Default Thoughts

There is a pin bar forming on the weekly EURCAD.
There is confluence of three fib rets.
There is also a nice bounce from the 365ema which is good in acting as a strong SR in swings.
Ohh and a mini PPZ as well.

The thing that bothers me is the lower highs and lower lows the price makes...in other words trading against the trend. But most likely it's time for a reserve, so I can take the train to the next lower low.
I am still confided that the 365ema will give it a nice bounce.
What do you think?
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  #39605  
Old Aug 1, 2009 12:17am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
To be honest,...

Hey Bundy,

Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it
It's good to know the point about the closing of the bar close to the confluence area. I"l take note of that next time for sure.
By the way, I'm not sure when that bar will close, but there is a chance it will close higher...hope so lol.

Not sure what you have asked for....but here is a line chart with the 38.2 - hope that helps.

Take care,
Ben
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  #39607  
Old Aug 1, 2009 2:10am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Pin bar looks good, the close could be a little lower. PPZs look good (in blue).

Not sure where your (or his) 38.2 fib came from but the 61.8 is right in the mix along with the 150 ema (blue / 365 ema red) and strong round number, 1.0000.

MACD divergence, if any, looks weak. First trouble or traffic area in green. With the trend PB. I would use the 1st blue PPZ as the 1st TP then the next blue PPZ as the 2nd TP. Overall a nice setup.

Let's see how she breaks. (if she breaks).
The fib ret is pulled from the high of November 2007 all the way down to the low of december 2008 and makes a good line of 38.2 crossing the nose of the PB.
Yes, I was mistaken with the divergence...I have placed the line wrong and confused my self...sorry

Ben
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  #39609  
Old Aug 1, 2009 2:22am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Yes I see where the 38.2 came from now. My bad.

Very nice. There's is nothing like mulitple confluences at given level. I'm liking this one more and more.

Boy, that Nov 07 BEOB was A++.
Yes it was
Bad luck I didn't know the forex world when it formed LOL.

Ben
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  #39611  
Old Aug 1, 2009 2:28am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
lol Well you know it now. You never know, someone a year from now maybe wishing they saw the current Weekly PB on the Cad/Chf.
Well...now we have a good reason to hope that will happen

Ben
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  #39651  
Old Aug 1, 2009 5:39pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Bundy made some great points about the close. The PB is rather small compared to the 2 weeks of a strong down move.

You do have to like the heavy confluenced area of the PPZ level, 150 & 365 emas and the 50% retracement.

I like your style Ben.

Also . . . ."I am still confided that the 365ema will give it a nice bounce."

These tools . . MAs, Fib retracements, 50% retracements, S/R levels, Trendlines, MACD Divergence, etc. . . . have some or little strength by themselves but when they are aligned with each other, especially...
Hey Jim,

Thanks for the explanations..and yours too Ghous.

"I like your style Ben"
I am happy to hear that. The truth is that I have just saw the videos in the guest area plus read in this thread and made note of important points.

This stuff is working really well indeed.
This may be my first and last forex method


Take care,
Ben
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Last edited by benji533, Aug 1, 2009 9:07pm
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  #39664  
Old Aug 2, 2009 12:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
I understand why you were confused about what I was asking. My fault....

Well, I have decided to leave it for now. I will think again on going long if I see the price breaking the 1.55 (the weekly pivot point).
I prefer to be picky and have as much as possible high win rate (as the j16 advices). But it can be a good trade if the price will breakout with momentum.
BTW, the first trouble area I have in my chart maches Jaroo's area. If a breakout of the 1/55 will form, there ia a good chance for an easy bunch of 200 pips.
My first target will be moving by stop to BE though...mainly because it's a area with very heavy traffic...I'll give B to that PB?

I wanted to ask you...where would you place you stop in this case? the if of the nose is around 1.515...that means 400 pips from the entry...quite a big stop....what about placing it a bit under the eye (lef eye of course) which is a major PPZ as well? That will give me a smaller stop of about 200 pips.

Thank you bundy and Jaroo for the help, most appreciated guys

Ben
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  #39665  
Old Aug 2, 2009 2:43am
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Default CHF\JPY monthly chart

I am considering going long.
There is a very nice pin bar bouncing off a confluence of 61.8 fib ret, 365ema, 150ema, and a major PPZ on the monthly chart.

I have then zoomed into the weekly and there as well is a pin bar bouncing off confluence which IMO helping with making a smaller stop.

ok we are not on swing highlow...maybe we will be their within a couple of years lol..this is the monthly chart.

There is a strong barrier the price must pass though before going long. I have highlighted another major PPZ which is forming above the pin bar. I won't enter long until it breaks that area. If it do breaks it, high chance it will act as support and we are safe (thank you jim and mike).

I have made a several pics for doing it clearer...hope it's ok.

Now help me find reasons why NOT taking that trade!

Ben
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  #39668  
Old Aug 2, 2009 4:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
You'll find enough if you look carefully...

Against the trend,

50 fib in the way

BIG 91 ppz (marked in yellow on my chart)

Most important of them all..."NOT AT A SWING HIGH/LOW OR AT A MAJOR PULLBACK"

Notice how this could be a great location for a bearish pin bar...which makes me think...

If a particular location is great for a bearish pin bar could it be just as good for a bullish pin bar? ...don't think so...

Could this be looked upon as bearish IPB?...pretty much YES!

Just MY opinion on the setup...

Ghous....
Ghoust, your opinion is indeed important. Learning from corrections of experienced traders is a great way to improve. Thanks.

I just want to comment on your points.

1) You have pullet the fib lines from another location. In my chart is looks good.
So how do you know which one of those fib locations is better?

2) Maybe it's weird, but I see an uptrend . You say that the price just pulled back from a major downtrend. If you will look a bit back in time around 1998 on the chart...you will see that there was a large and strong historic downtrend. Latter came a strong uptrend which wasn't a kind of a pull back...but a strong uptrend (of course the price always makes pullbacks, but not such major pullbacks like it is doing currently). That makes me think it's a uptrend and not just a pullback.
But of course, we can never know....
Edit: Just edited point 2 to correct and explain myself better.

3) Maybe it's material that I am still not familiar with...but what is a IPB? are you meaning "inverted pin bar"? Sorry, I am quite new to forex (6 weeks). I will be glad if you can please explain what is the meaning of that (I mean the effect on the price). How can you just turn a pin bar and look at it as a bearish pin bar.

4) I have stressed in my previous post that I will enter long only after a breakout of the 91 PPZ ( I have even said 91.7). So I am aware of that strong PPZ. If the price will break it as I think, that PPZ will act as a strong support area. That's the reason I will enter only after a breakout of that line. Talking about pullbacks....maybe a breakout of that PPZ will confirm an uptrend instead of a pullback?
Just a newbie thought of course.

By the way I agree that it's not located on a swing low/high...I have mentioned it also myself. But if we will wait only for swings on the monthly, we will need to wait at least a few years.

Thanks again for your comments buddy and take care,

Ben
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Last edited by benji533, Aug 2, 2009 4:54am
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  #39710  
Old Aug 2, 2009 7:24pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Ghoust, your opinion is indeed important. Learning from corrections of experienced traders is a great way to improve. Thanks.

I just want to comment on your points.

1) You have pullet the fib lines from another location. In my chart is looks good.
So how do you know which one of those fib locations is better?


Neither of us is wrong. My fibs were pointing at the recent dominant down trend and you pointed out at the overall up trend. I used the location I used because it was better lined up with the current price action...

As long as your...

Hi Ghoust,

I have everything in place now, thanks again.

By the way, great post about the IPB...I have saved it in my favorites

Take care,


Ben
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  #39716  
Old Aug 2, 2009 9:20pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
No worries Benji.

just try leaving out the "t" next time you type my name though lol

Ghous.
LOL
I guess your avatar is pretty much hypnotizing me

Next time...

Ben
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  #39722  
Old Aug 2, 2009 10:07pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by oltciter View Post
Big divergence on GPBUSD 4h chart!
Hey oltciter,

On daily it is close to the 50% plus the 365ema.

So on the higher time frame it looks good.

Anyway, it can easily get caught in that heavy traffic IMO.

Ben
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  #39733  
Old Aug 3, 2009 2:11am
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Default GBP\USD

ok so this will be my plan IF I'll enter this trade.....does it make sense?
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Old Aug 3, 2009 2:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Looks good.
I have lined it with that bar low in case it can make trouble?


Quote:
Originally Posted by oltciter View Post
I looove your plan!
Thanks

Ben
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  #39738  
Old Aug 3, 2009 2:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Good plan Benji,

Sometimes you have to be very patient and sensible on the lower time frames early on a Monday, price does what it is doing right now a lot....struggle for momentum.

So far the momentum is giving good signs of building on the short side, indicated by the Ib and the "so far going nowhere" bar currently under play,

I have a blind short order waiting at 1.676 so I'll give it a push with my $1000 a pip volume

Ghous.

I'm glad I'm getting positive feedbacks. I feel I'm starting to "get it"

This stuff is really simple if you compare it to all the messy charts of other traders who use other kind of "systems". So much lines....they can't even see how the bar looks like.
I'm glad I have found this thread at the start of my journey....thanks to Johnny

Umm..yes..basically I know I must practice higher time frames before going down...but I will allow myself taking some picks on the 4H....my curiosity will kill me at the end.

By the way, you have meant to say you have a pending short order on 1.6676 instead of 1.676, right?

Thank you everyone....great place to learn and be at!

Ben
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  #39741  
Old Aug 3, 2009 3:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
No I meant 1.676,

And I missed it with a hair line

lol, a trade would have been up 40 pips (my BE point on touch trades) so a missed trade get's pulled off here. next...

(no intents of shorting the 4h pin...risk constraints...)

Ghous.
Ohh you were planning to play that pin in the "aggressive" strategy....Got it now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
oh and BTW the $1000 a pip thingie was a joke.
Who needs that amount of money anyway

Ben
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  #39762  
Old Aug 3, 2009 8:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
I have said this before but will make the observation again for the newer traders here....

Hi KissFan,

Thank you for the post. Basically I was off my computer for a while. When I was back I saw a bullish PB on my feed, so I have just canceled the pending order.
It was also good cause I have placed my entry point lower enough so it didn't trigger.

You have a very good point about patience....I personally know it's a thing that can have bad a effect on me (lack of patience) and I will work on it.

Any way, I'm trading the demo...as jim said "there is no reason to lose a dime while learning to trade" But still I try to treat it like it's the reality.

Ben


Ben
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Old Aug 5, 2009 2:55am
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Hey guys,

A newbie question:

How do I play inside bars?
At the breakout of the inside bar itself, or at the breakout of the previous bar?

Thanks,

Ben
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  #39934  
Old Aug 5, 2009 3:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by advfntrader View Post
you can play it either way, the break of the Inside bar is more aggressive, its safer to play the break of the "mother candle"
Thanks gasgas and advfntrader for the answers, I appreciate that.

Does anyone know what is the J16 style of plying them?
Both ways?

Ben
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  #39943  
Old Aug 5, 2009 6:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Develop a case individually for each direction. Does case 1 (long) have enough room before hitting potential trouble? Does case 2 (short) have enough room before hitting potential trouble?

Most of the time one way is a way better trade potential than the other and you just ignore the other case.

There are times when James will have orders on both sides depending the feasibility of each option. ...Well, that's how he used to see it the way I remember. lol

Break of big bar before the IB or IB itself?...
Thanks Bundy!

Here is what I have learned so far about sideways market...

First of all I will mark the major PPZs. Usually I will be able to highlight small boxes of micro sideways and PPZs between them. So I know where the price is heading if a break occurs.

Now the box itself. I know from what I have learned so far that many system traders loose there money in these range areas.
The way of trading them in J16 style is usually play breakouts of inside bars (because the most common PA setup in these areas are inside bars...I think...it makes sense because range areas are where there is indecision between bears and bulls....and inside bars show that as well, right? Just a thought). Another good way to play them is to blindly place a buy stop order above the consolidation box, and sell stop below it.

For the inside bars, I will always know when to get out (when price reaches the edge of the consolidation box).

So I will try all they strategies I have mentioned above on demo, and see how I can cope with a sideways market. These material begins to sink. It's good.


Ok sorry for all the talking to my self above lol....just want to give a back round of why I am asking that question and where I am.

The only thing I needed to know is how to play the inside bars correctly, and that's why I have asked the quwstion. Of course it depends on the the location. But Bundy, do you decide to play them at the inside bar break or previous bar break depending on the room it has to move?
Lets say I want to be very picky and play it the safer way. Will it be right to take only trades that have room to move after they break the previous bar?
I have noticed that the price breaks the inside bars themselves most of the time very easily and then retrace hardly. It looks to me not so reliable to play these breakouts.
I am confused cause I think I have seen some where in this thread that Jim played them both ways.

Ohh well....I guess only personal experience and developing my own style will help me decide. Thanks for the answer though.

By the way, a completely other question: is it right to say that buob are most reliable on swing lows and beob are most reliable on swing highs?

Ben
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  #39948  
Old Aug 5, 2009 6:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
Hi Ben,
In my opinion there are two kinds of Price Action signals, Reversal patterns and Breakout patterns....

Hi Jduester,

That is a great post! Thanks for your time.
I completely agree about the fact they are more powerful played off PPZs. Thanks also for describing the idea behind them.

Quote:
I've found that inside bars in general have a much lower win probability with many false breakouts.
That is true. I have noticed it as well. That is the reason I have asked what the J16 style tells about them. I thought maybe trading the breakout of the previous bar will reduce the percentage of false breakouts.
It is true that it is more powerful playing off PPZs, but I am now talking about a different situation. I will try to find a pic for example if you won't understand my description. I am talking about consolidation boxes, where there are inside bars forming in the middle. I will want to play those IBs on there breakout direction and exit when I reach the edge of the box consolidation. Does that make sense or smart to do that?

Ben
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Old Aug 5, 2009 7:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
Ben, is this the scenario you are talking about? I have not done any prior testing of inside bars in this type of setup. You might back/forward test and let us know your results!

If this isn't what you are talking about, my apologies. Post a chart and I'll try to comment.

Josh

You got me right Josh!

That is exactly what I was referring to.
Look at it...it's just perfect. The breakout occurs and then I know exactly where to exit - when the price reaches the edge of the box. That is a good way to trade these kind of sideways markets....am I right?
But the problem is that I have noticed that many times these breakouts of the IBs themselves are not so reliable. So just wanted to know if it will be better to trade the breakouts of the previous bars WHEN THERE IS PLACE FOR PRICE TO MOVE. What do you think?


BTW, you can also setup a buy stop order above that edge, cause you know that price will reserve. You also place a sell stop order below the bottom of the box cause you know that if a breakout will occur there is a good chance it will go further and drop hardly. But that is further thought which I didn't plan to post in the first place.

Ben
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Old Aug 5, 2009 11:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
YES on space to move, but MUST ALSO HAVE other good supporting factors....
Hi bundy,

Sometimes I am trying too hard getting into details and forget the basics...TRADING OFF PPZs, NOT INTO THEM

Thanks for reminding me that...

I think it's because I didn't have even one trade almost during a whole week driving me nuts lol. But that's ok, I am trying to be picky...it suppose to pay off eventually

Ben
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Old Aug 5, 2009 12:59pm
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Does anyone know where can I download a software which enables me to draw short lines and arrows on my charts (like in the paint software coming with windows)?
Sometimes I just want to pull a short line or arrow on my chart but I can't.
I refer to the tool Jim and Mike are using when they make their videos.

Thanks,

Ben
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  #39976  
Old Aug 5, 2009 1:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Ben

That tool is part of the video recording software camtasia. But camtasia makes a screen shot software too called Jing that works nicely and has similar tools.

Best
Mike

I'll check it out Thanks Mike.

Ben
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Old Aug 5, 2009 6:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Bundy and Josh gave some excellent points and information on trading IBs. Also, Dale's Double Inside Bar (2IB) is definitely worth a deeper look to trade.

Inside Bar PA formations are just like any other PA formation that meet our strict criteria of Location, supporting confluences, and Location and also the Location. (as Bundy said. lol)

The trouble is with other PA formations i.e. PBs, Outside Bars, etc., we are looking for a sizable formation (for strength) to give us a more solid confirmation. Meaning, its not only that the Location...
Thanks Jim
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Old Aug 5, 2009 6:17pm
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I have just posted a answer with my opinion to someone on another forum.
I planed to make it short, but while writing I felt that things are starting to sink....so I kept on.
So I thought why not posting it here as well?
I love posting here my thoughts because every time I do that, I get from you guys feedbacks with corrections on how to do things, and it helps me to improve. I am still new to this.
If someone here is new and didn't go through the 100+ first pages of these thread plus watching the videos in the guest area, I strongly advise you to do so

I have attached the charts at the bottom of the post. So just fit the first chart to the first post and the second chart to the second post.


Here:

=================================== =====================

Quote:
Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
That's reassuring to read.
Does that mean that you don't manually move your SL to BE during the week when the trade has gone into profit?

I had a long position on AUDCAD that I opened Sunday afternoon and everything was looking very nice until I opened up my charts this pm and found that the paper profit had turned into -15 pips as a bearish outside day seemed to be forming. I chickened out and closed it for a small loss. I feel like I should have moved the SL to BE sooner. That's what I understand James16 does as he will go to lengths to avoid...
Hi o990l6mh,

As far as I know, Jim is teaching to go only for the A++++ setups which will in average occurs 3-4 times a month if you follow many pairs at higher time frames (daily and weekly). If you pick these WITH UNDERSTANDING OF SIMPLE PRICE PIVOT ZONES (SR ARERAS WHERE PRICE FLIPS), you will be able to take 9 successful trades out of 10. But here is the problem....Jim can sit and view his charts for months without entering even single one trade, cause he knows that when he will enter, a few tens of pips will make him ton of money. That's because he is trading a very large account. But it is hard for small account holders.
Yes, one of the things I have noticed by reading through his thread, is that letting a winner turn into a loser is the worst thing in his book. Moving stop to BE is important.
When you enter a trade with an understanding of PPZs, you can easily identify the first place the price will may have trouble, and then move your stop to BE. Jim calls the trades which stop at BE winners.

For example, I'll take your trade of the AUDCAD and show you exactly why the price retaced and at which point you sould have to move your stop to BE. As I see it, there is a reason for every single bar move on the charts. Never will happen something without a reason...that's the nature of the markets.

I am may sounding like an experienced trader with this material, but please take note I am only 6 weeks into forex, and maybe two or three into the J16 material. It is very simple material after it sinks.
I would also wait for Ray_1 or JohnnyKanoo to confirm.

Here is how I read the market:



Ben


=================================== ====================

Zooming in
:


Let’s go one bar at a time and see the reason for each bar making highs and lows at its certain point. Take note I will begin from bar 4 because I need a bit historic price to base my decisions on. This is the AUDCAD exactly what I have explained in the previous post, just zoomed in.

4 – Low ends in line with the high of bar 2 (old resistance now acting as support).
5 – Dropping to the line where the highs of box number 0 are. Than starts to go up and closes in line with the low of bar 2 (old support now resistance).
6 – Heading up to the line where the low of bar 3 is.
7 – Retraces to the lows of bars 5 and 6 which are now support (in the past resistance of box 0).
8 – After meeting support at bar 7, now time to rise up and reach the resistance which the bar lows 4 occurred in the past (old support now resistance….pretty simple).
9 – Price keeping rising…but where will it stop? The answer is in line with the old resistance of the 3 and 4 bar highs. Now time to drop again after meeting resistance…price drops and makes a new low in line with the high of bar 7. (Old resistance now support. The price than goes up again and closes in line with the high of bar 8 and the lows of bars 4 (there are two bars for number 4.
10 prices retraces to the lows of 6, 7, 8 and highs of box 0, but the bar closes a bit before price reaches there.
11 – Bar 11 is completing the work of bar 10 and retraces to the level I have mentioned above (take note how the 365ema is acting as a wonderful support. I use moving averages only for that purpose…usually 150ema and 365ema). After meeting support, price rises and makes a line with the highs of bars 10, 8, 5, 2 and the low of bar 4 (awesome!! I am reading price like a book!).
12 - After meeting resistance, time to retrace and make a low where bar 7 formed old resistance, and bar 9 new support.
13 – Price breaks through the bunch of resistance and shooted up like a rocket…..where will it stop? Where will I want to take my profit? At the major PPZ I have marked after zooming out of my charts and looking for the major PPZ areas.
14 – Price retraces and stops at support. Where is that support? At old bunch of resistance which was created by the highs of bars 2, 4 and 9.
1516 – price rises again and meets resistance at major PPZ which is now also the bar highs location of bars 13 and 14.
17 – Price retraces off the resistance and finds mini micro support at the high of bar 15.
18 – Retraces and finds support at the lows of bars 5, 6, 7, 10 and 12.
19 – Price goes up and finds resistance at the bar highs of 2, 5, 8, 10, 11 and lows of bars 4 and 13 – that is a PPZ – a place where price flips.


Price action setups:

- The two bars in box number 4 are inside bars. The highs of them are at a PPZ. So I will trade a break of them short. Ok I took short on the breakout. When to exit? Where price will have trouble? Exactly where it suppose to have. At the highs of bars in box number 0.

- Bars 6 and 7 are inside bars. Will I trade them long? No. There is a PPZ right above – lows of previous bars 3 and 4. There is no room for price to go long unless it breaks out, but then I will wait for that breakout before I enter a trade.

- Bar 9 is a PB off a PPZ. I wouldn’t take it because there is no room for it to move. This time it dropped lower than bars 5, 6, 7, 8, lows….but rarely happen.




Hope that helps!!
It took me a lots of time to write and draw all of these in the two last posts
But that's completely fine. I did it cause I do it all day long when I have a bit space of time. (this time I just uploaded it). Before two weeks I didn't have a clue. I just practice and practice....eventually it sinks and now I even see them automatically without thinking a lot when I open my charts.

Ben




===========================


PS - hope you can see the charts.
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  #40096  
Old Aug 6, 2009 8:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
1. Almost everyone I have seen trades ten pips below the break, not 3. To make sure it breaks and all. 3 pips doesnt even make the spread on some pairs. You cant judge a break of a previous pin based on something that barely touches it - especially when the break is an integral part of the PA setup!

I used to try and trade on the exact pip that a bar broke and a setup was 'valid' - why waste ten pip profit?! It was a disaster.

Now, if I want a quick entry on the first break of the bar/validation of the setup, I wait for a Jaroo-style...
joelcf, great post!

You are really bring valuable info here....please keep it coming!

Cheers !

Ben
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Old Aug 6, 2009 12:05pm
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Default E\J Daily

Hey folks, how are all of you doing?

Did any of you take a look on the EURJPY daily today?

I do not want to hear or ask for trade suggestions or signals.
Lets talk about Location.

Well, have a major PPZ line at 138.00 which is acting as a strong resistance. That line is a confluence of 50% and 61.2% fib rets as well. The 365ema which is very effective at creating SR at daily and weekly charts is meeting that line now as well.
On top of all this we have a very good looking divergence.

We are absolutely in a sideways market right now trapped between the 138.00 and the 126.00.

Look back on your chart....also in the past a strong sideways market formed between those levels.

Price is currently touching the resistance....isn't it a perfect LOCATION for going short? The only missing thing is a PA confirmation.

By the way, I automatically see all these tons of minor PPZs there. I never put a line there cause I want to keep my charts simple. But I know how to manage my trade based on these flip prices and the highs and lows of the bars.

Will the picky guys between you will take this trade even if a pin bar without a very long nose will form?
Will you trade an inside bar or a beovb off this zone?

CAN I SAY IT IS A PERFECT LOCATION FOR GOING SHORT?

This is not a major historic swing highlow, but is a perfect location to take a trade in a sideways market with all this confluence.

Last question....do anyone between you will take a blind short (or long at a breakout) for this trade?
I mean no PA confirmation.

In the meantime I am following this pair...wanting to see a nice PB !!

Ben
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Old Aug 6, 2009 12:47pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fat_tom View Post
Ben,

I agree with the location - been a very long term weekly PPZ as well all the way back to 2004... couldn't manage to get any fib confluence on mine tho? - fancy throwing up a chart with fibs on it? - I'm still struggling a wee bit with these!!!

at the moment there is weak PA in the form of a daily pin however the nose is very short... and the bar has yet to close!!! (6 hours left on my feed!)

doubt I'll play this one to be honest as the PA is too weak but wouldn't be suprised if it dropped down after today!

cheers

Tom
Hi Tom,

Fibs from Low December 2000 to high July 2008, and high august 2008 to low January 2009.

@ Mike - Do you never play blind entries (not that I do, just general question lol).

Ben
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Old Aug 7, 2009 8:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Guys GBPJPY H4 Pin Bar

Stated some comments in the picture.

Please advise.

Hi tradertt,

This pin bar is diving into a PPZ which is also a round number 160.00.

Well I'm not a senior member, but IMO you would like to take trades which bunch off PPZ and not into them.
Look at all those bar lows. They will most likely act as resistance. price flips - old support, price breaks through, now it will act as resistance. That is what Jim actually teaches.
This trade doesn't have much room.
I will add to this....zoom into the daily and you will notice that the 162.500 zone is a significant resistance area. Price is currently forming a double top...kinda swing high (on daily), which is an ideal place to look for buob, dbhlc, PB (bearish setups).
That's for location.

Also the PB itself isn't the best looking one IMO, brcause it's nose is quite short.

Again, I am also new....JMO of course.

Hope it helps


Ben



ETID: I can see it is taking off a bit in your direction after all. Did you take the trade? If you did, I will advice you to put an eye on the 162.00 - 162.50 level for an exit.
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Old Aug 7, 2009 9:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Lot's of break evens this month, (and a few losses) need to get back on track...

Here's Gj, after an 80 pip drop in the green it comes back and stops me out for 0,

Next...

G,

Hey bro...that was absolutely unexpected. ruined my beauty EJ PB on my feed. I am confided it will find resistance at 162.500 and retrace (hopefully will form a new PN with even a longer nose on the EJ).

Just wanted to ask...based on what did you take that trade short? (sorry if I missed any previous post of yours on that). I can't see any PA there...(just something that reminds a PB..lol....did you take it as a PB trade?).

Thanks

Ben
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Old Aug 7, 2009 10:26am
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Default My first trade after two weeks of being too picky!!!

Look at that PB!!!

I won't move for a second from this computer until I move my stop to BE though

ok Mike...lets see if being picky pays off


Ben
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Old Aug 7, 2009 11:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Look at that PB!!!

I won't move for a second from this computer until I move my stop to BE though

ok Mike...lets see if being picky pays off


Ben

Ohh yeaa it pays off!
Eventually I traded...after so much time.
none of my other planed trades didn't trigger during the last weeks.

I made my pips here and got out.

I know...good chance it will breakout and I could made more pips...but I decided to get out based on what I have learned here.

Look at that consolidation box...I have got out when price touched that line....and now after I got out, price reserves exactly where I got out.
This stuff rocks!! Thanks Jim!...Thanks Mike plus senior members teaching this material.

LOL sorry....I'm just new to this business...kinda my first "real trade" (I mean, when I actually understand what I'm doing and have a plan promise not to do that again ).

Ben
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Old Aug 7, 2009 11:14am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Way to go Ben, I woke up for this one too Out already above 1.4

No way anyone should take a loss on this one at this point. Nice job Ben! Proud of you

Mike

Thanks too you Mike

Ben
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Old Aug 7, 2009 8:08pm
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Default GBPUSD

Hey guys (: just want to share my thoughts about the GBPUSD.

1.7000 is a very strong PPZ. Look at the picture.

We are based at swing high right now, under a super major PPZ....ideal place to look for a bearish setup? ...I think yes.





Now lets zoom into the daily. Look at the second picture. We have just jumped out of a consolidation area. The market was in indecision mod for a long time now...so that means we might see a strong breakout to one of the directions. IMO that divergence can help us see where price is heading. Lets add to it the strong PPZ 1.7000 at a round number.

Basically, that breakout in the last days was a false breakout (it is summed up with a Pinocchio bar....in other word, price lied by forming a false breakout), and it just adds strength to the bears by making that divergence stronger.





Now lets go back to weekly...picture number three. The location is good, but we need price action confirmation. No PA = no trade.

Look on the weekly...there is a pin bar forming. Well that pin bar is nice, but not an A pin bar IMO cause it's nose is quite short if we compare it to the surrounding bars...ummm...
The thing that jumped out at me though was that 50.00 ret level that Jim always mentioned.





Basically if I'll take that trade, I expect the next bar to reach he bottom of the consolidation box (might have trouble with the minor PPZ within it), and than move my stop to BE if the box will breakout.

The 150ema and 365ema are straight above that pin....(at least in the right direction lol).

To sum it up, I'll want to see price breaks through that box again before I play that pin. Maybe I'll only play the breakout of the bottom of the box..umm...than there will be space for price to move.


ok to be honest I think I'll skip it....Any thoughts....guys?

Have a fantastic weekend folks!


Ben
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Old Aug 9, 2009 5:26am
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Hi,

Thanks tyler812, phpscott, jarroo, ghous and 2mas for the comments


Jarroo. I'm glad you see it as an A setup, that means I'm actually managing to be picky

ok..back to business....

There are several ways to manage this trade.
We know very well what?s happening on weekly?.lets zoom into daily to place our potential entries and exits.
The 1.6588 is a level which is crowded with daily bar highs. I can bet you they will make trouble for price?.bad trouble or maybe good trouble if we use them smartly?
If price breaks trough, that area will act as strong resistance and we will enjoy a small stop.
In addition, the 1.6310 is a minor PPZ level that can't be ignored on the daily.


Options:

1)Enter at a break of 1.6588. Exit target will be 1.6310 (minor PPZ). (nice 270 pips).

2)Enter at a break of 1.6588. Move stop to BE when price hits the 1.3610. (Good chance price will consolidate between those areas until it breaks through?.that means most likely it will hit our BE. After 270 pips gain I won?t let it happen personally).

3) Like option 2, but this time price will break 1.3610 without trouble, and we can move our stop to above 1.3610 and continue managing that trade (that's kinda betting and hoping = no no).


What do you guys think? I'll like to hear what do you think Jarroo...or what are you planing personally to do...if you care to share


Ben


PS - ghous and SP. Great posts! Thank you guys.





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Old Aug 9, 2009 9:17am
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Default GBPJPY - Monthly pin bar

Did any of you saw this one?

160.00 is a significant PPZ area (remember those are zones...I didn't find an exact line).

Price is now 162. 64 - breakout?

The pin diffidently broke. We are now in line with are other bar highs in the area. Will any of you enter a break of them?

The last low was the lowest ever low that pair made in it's history from 1988. Is it possible that we are now just at the end of the pullback? Or a new monthly uptrend? I personally think that trade will be with the trend.

Ben







Edit:


BUOB on Daily + double top. Will we see a breakout of the tow of them? If yes, we have a good solid support there.





BAD: THAT PIN US IN TRAFFIC.
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Last edited by benji533, Aug 9, 2009 9:47am
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  #40465  
Old Aug 9, 2009 3:49pm
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Originally Posted by phpscott View Post
I believe it is best to play a break of the 1.66 area like you plan to. Also, PPZs are zones. I place them at the nearest round number such us 1.6600, 1.6650 etc.

You are right

In addition, I have just noticed a kinda B pin bar on the monthly (even a natural bar...but the location is good).

Ben

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Old Aug 9, 2009 4:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phpscott View Post
Ben,
PBs have a long nose. I do not consider the monthly nor weekly bars to be PBs. The monthly bar does not come close but the weekly is getting there. The weekly bar is roughly the same length as the bars before it, but how can an average sized bar have a long nose? I label the weekly and monthly bars as average bearish bars that happen to have the open and close within the previous bar.

Scott
ok. Thanks sir.

Ben
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Old Aug 9, 2009 7:01pm
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Originally Posted by phpscott View Post
I had a pending order on this one, however, my broker canceled it due to slippage. I just added the pending order back in. I am aiming for the 0.6600 area as well.

Scott

I am as well considering that trade. Check out for trouble at the previous bar highs, 1.663.

Ben
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Old Aug 10, 2009 11:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CkM8 View Post
Woke up a little over an hour ago to see that my stop sell order got triggered and kept running

I'm in this one too.
Second trade of mine....currently +76 pips and running

Ben
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Old Aug 10, 2009 12:05pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
I'm in this one too.
Second trade of mine....currently +76 pips and running

Ben

Currently +90 pips and stop moved to BE.
I have zoomed into the 4H to fined the next point to trail my stop to.
I fully expect the 1.64500 area to act as support now. If price breaks through, it will most likely act as resistance....so I will move my stop above it.

Ben
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Old Aug 10, 2009 1:02pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Pretty easy stuff, right Ben?
Ohh sure it is now! I am beginning to think that after I know the material, the only thing that can kill me is not being patient and pick enough...or having a bad MM.

Ben
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Old Aug 10, 2009 2:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
James16, Mike, Bundy and many others will say the same thing; the only thing that will stop you now is . . . . you.


Now don't get cocky . . .just kidding. lol

Nice trade Ben.

Jim

LOL Jarroo, I just need to make sure I hold the rights for it

Just had my third (little) trade....three winners out of three This stuff rocks!

ok you are kidding but right...I shut my mouth now
Thanks again instructors and seniors.

Ben


PS - I have closed my position with +107 pips. Maybe a mistake...but I'm still new. I will learn to control those emotions that tell me to close early when I hit my first take profit target. Currently price has trouble where I predicted. I won't beat myself up if I exited too early. I will learn from it.


PSS - Anyone uses alertfx.com? How do I enable my account with them? or use it.
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Old Aug 10, 2009 2:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjotic View Post
Also can anyone comment on the pin bar on the USD/CAD weekly showing a reversal towards USD appreciation? This trade was also appearing on sunday and at a support level.
Hi mjotic,
That pin isn't long. You have a strong PPZ right above at the 1.09000
I will Wait for Price action confirmation on that level.

Ben

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Old Aug 10, 2009 3:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjotic View Post
Thanks for your thoughts. I'm new to this so when you say waiting for PA to trade a possible rejection are you looking for another pin or a bearish outside bar in order to short at this level?

This level looks to be important and it would make a lot of sense to be prepared for what the market offers long or short.

I'm just not very advanced so I can only wrap my head around the long off the support level.

mjotic, I myself am new (also to forex in general).
If I can give an advice, it is to take your time and read through this thread from page one. I have read till page 135 and I got so much out of it personally. Pay most attention to james16 posts, read each of them carefully. Then go and watch the videos at the guest area of the group's website.
That was benefiting for me at least.

For your question, there are several price action setups.

You would like to look for bullish setups for going long: dblhc, buob, pin bar with a nose pointing south.
Or bearish setups for short: dbhlc, beob, pin bar with a nose pointing north.

There are more setups that cab be traded to the breakout direction like inside bars, I4B, double bar low (bearish) and double bar high (bullish) at breakout.

The idea is to find those patterns on PPZs and trade them off those levels. Most of the time they work if you take the good setups.

The reason why the USDCAD wasn't a good (theoretically) trade, is because you traded into a PPZ level instead of trading a bounce off of it.
Most likely those levels will reject price when it reaches it, that 's why we want room between our entry and those levels (so our position will have room to run before it gets rejected).

Hope that helps. If something is still not clear, just let me know and I'll try to explain better.

Ben
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Old Aug 10, 2009 4:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjotic View Post
Ben that's some great insight, I really appreciate it. I will look into your suggestions and be better prepared for future trades.

I'm definitely not as far into this as you are and it'll take some time but i'm looking forward to learning this stuff.

Thanks and I wish you all the best.

Now that's what I'm talking about

mjotic, zoom into the 4H chart and look how that PPZ rejected price. It's amazing. On me feed I got a beautiful pin bar off that major PPZ level. Got kinda confluence with a fib a well.
Price broke through, now mad a pull back to the PPZ and we have a PA setup confirming that the price is ready ti continue it's move down.
There is one hour left on my feed for that bar to close. Lets see what we will get

Ben

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Old Aug 10, 2009 7:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mseaz9 View Post
Your thoughts ...why this went wrong not yet but i feel like this PIN will fail.

I am still holding short n e one else in the same boat???
I have passed on that one after I saw it did not break. Even if it will break now, I won't play it. Just not feeling comfortable. but that's me.

By the way folks....anyone noticed the pin bar bounce off of the 365ema
USDCHF 4H?
Last time price it bounced 350 pips away....interesting....

Ben

Edit: I won't take it. The last bar highs most likely turn into support now
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Last edited by benji533, Aug 10, 2009 7:23pm
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  #40584  
Old Aug 11, 2009 8:10am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Great Post Ben. Wow.

Add more supporting confluences to thoses patterns at PPZ levels and it will give stength to your setup.

Your the Man.

Jim

Hey bro, whats up?

I wanted to ask...do you play inside bars?

Here is an example of an inside bar at a swing high, off heavy resistance....looks good IMO. But I did not take it because of the heavy support the bar lows below created. Waiting for another A setup

GBPJPY Daily.

Take care

Ben


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Old Aug 11, 2009 3:08pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Hey Guys,

How's life?

Just walked in with my monitor and set it up. (I still have my old friend with me )

on to the catching up part now...

EDIT: Nice trade on the Gu those who went for it.

g

Hey mate. Good to have you back
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  #40605  
Old Aug 11, 2009 3:21pm
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Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Guys need your help here.

I plot my Weekly, Daily and H4 PPZ daily erasing everything and doing it from scratch so as to practice....

Personally I zoom out and place the one or two most significant zones next to the price. Then it's just a question of when price gets to it so I can look for PA off it.

There are tons of minor PPZ...don't get so caught on them (in fact, every bar makes a PPZ...put lines on the low and high of a weekly bar, and check what it gives you on the 4H).

Take the major few obvious ones where price flips around them. When time goes, you will develop an instinct of noticing the minor ones automatically without lines. Keep your charts simple.

IMO, you should look for trades mostly at swing low or high. The PPZs are good for helping you manage the trade (trail stops behind them). If your trade is in the middle of a swing, it has low potential to keep running longer.

If you trade the 4H, so place the major PPZs on daily. It will be much easier and clear where price flips) see the big picture).

I like my charts simple as possible...I see the PPZs automatically without lines...they are just the first thing that jumps out at me when I see a chart.

Hope that helps.

Ben
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Old Aug 11, 2009 3:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
By the way, just want to confirm a few things:

Types of PA to trade (not talking about multi bars like what some does - Anyway Multi bars are 2 bars or 3 bars combined to form the basic PAs we trade right? )

1) Pin Bar
2) DBHLC, DBLHC
3) BEOB, BUOB
4) Inside bars (but I don't trade it often now)
Anything else I am missing out?

Types of confluence to look:
1) PPZs (if a line only have a swing high - Resistance - Is it considered as a PPZ?)
2) MACD Divergence
3) Fibs
4) 365 EMA
5) 150 EMA
6) Trend line

Things to look out for:
1) Traffic (Meaning...

Very good.

I'll add swing lows and swing highs.
All the idea is to catch a trend. If you get in the middle, your potential is an half (theoretically). In addition, most on the pin bars (which are the most reliable PA setup) will form at swings. Swings automatically are PPZs. So you have PA on a good location. That's just my opinion of course.

Another thing that scott and Mike commented on one of my posts this week...look for really significant price action bars. There are many poodle pin bars that have the shape but are really tiny (look more like natural bars). They just don't tell you anything.
It is something that also I forgot this week (thanks Scott and mike), the idea of price action is to understand what price is basically telling us. It is talking to you, listen to it (lol). If you see a pin bar with a real long nose, that means price reached a certain level, and something rejected it really hard (traders took profit, new trades entered on the other direction, whatever the reason), so most likely price will turn to the other direction (it has only two ways to go). Now if you have confluence to support the barrier which rejected the price, it becomes even a better chance for a winning trade.
On the other hand, if you get a mini pin bar which is very small....ok so price was rejected a bit...but it doesn't really tells you anything.

Ben
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Old Aug 11, 2009 4:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
When you say swing high and low, how long a chart do you look at?

If you see a PA at a swing high and low, what other confluence do you look for in this case since that area tends to be quite clear
Hi tradertt,

The market moves in waves (Google Eliot waves theory). They will always be major waves, and minor waves which are creating the majors.

If you trade a 4H chart, so zoom out (or go to daily) and place the major waves on your screen. I personally trade the daily (also 4H if I'm bored).
The major high and low swings on 4H will me minors on daily and weekly, so it's all comparative.

Now if you trade the 4H swings, you should look for the same confluence factors you have mentioned in your post. Zoom out to daily and weekly to see what supports your swings on 4H.

Here is an example chart of the eurusd 4H.
I have zoomed out the maximum I can, and placed the major PPZs where price flips. There are much more, but I keep them in my head without lines. Now look for the major swings on the current screen. I have marked them with white big arrows. See how the swings are automatically off PPZS (they create them). Every swing like that can run far and make you a big pip gain.
I have marked the minor waves (swings) with small red arrows. You can take those, but you can see they have much less potential and and much less pip gain. Why take them one by one when you can take all of them in one big wave? there will always be smaller swings.



Now this is after the fact....Easy to be a genius that way. How do you spot these before they happen?...it is quite simple in fact....I already have the major PPZs that previous major swings created....all I need now it to wait and get price action confirmation on those levels.
Here is the thing. This material is easy. You can make money from it. But you must have the patient and disciplines to be able and take only the good ones. You can see they are few. It is hard. Follow 20 pairs and it will be easier....but it will still be hard to see mini trades run good without taking them. It can drive you nuts sometimes...at least it does that to me.

Confluence...I bet you there is some confluence on all of these levels...EMAs, fibs, what ever. There will always automatically be. The confluence is what shapes the waves....if those barriers were not there...the waves wouldn't get such shape.

I did not look at that before making the placing the lines on the 4H chart. Now I have zoomed out to weekly...and what I find? confluence of course. Look how the 61.8 fib ret lines up with the 365ema at my first line (1.29000). Also the 150ema lines up with the second one (1.37500).
In addition, look how those lines act as PPZs also on the big picture.



Yes...now on the weekly you can say that these are minor swings if at all.
But again, it all depends on the time frame you are trading. It is comparative. Look for the major swings on your current screen. The advantage of low time frames is that price will reach those levels faster...but the size of pip gain is much smaller...so, does it worth it? You will decide depending on your own personal style).


I think that the minor PPZs, EMAs, fibs, etc....are best used for managing your trade. You see those small red arrows on the first pic...they are spots.

I hope that helps you.
Just remember...I can't really say that anything of what I say is working. I hardly had a few trades in my life...I just spend my time reading and trying to understand and develop my own style. Nothing is proven...I just try to help by sharing my thought. Take that in the conclusion.

Ben
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  #40625  
Old Aug 11, 2009 5:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Ben. Just been reading some of your recent post . . . good stuff brother.

Lately I have been plaly the Double Inside Bars as decribed by Dale on this thread and also some I4Bs or I10+Bs. I like more definable PA at these areas instead of IBs. But they are very tradable at the right location and confluence.
ohh well...this one took off eventually...currently +140 pips....never mind, next time

By the way, what is "I10+Bs" ? Can you throw a link please
Thanks mate.

Ben

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Old Aug 11, 2009 5:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by myfx View Post
Hi Ben,

Thanks man....well explained.. i am new to this method too & you guys are great.

Tq
You are welcome.
Good to see you here


Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Mike and Jim have some good posts on Inside 4 Bars within the thread.
Here's one from Mike, there are many others. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15851

An Inside 10+ Bars are just more the 10 bars larger in range then the IB as descrided by a I4B.
ohh got it now.
I was familiar with the I4B....but the I10B was strange to me.
Thank you

Ben
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Old Aug 11, 2009 6:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
could someone be kind enough to tell me what was the entry trigger on the G/J trade? on my daily all there is are huge green and red candles. I couldnt really see a trigger on the daily. On the 4 hour there was a few pins but I dont really trade 4 hour.
Hi supermatt,
On the daily chart, an inside bar breakout formed off resistance which is also a double top now.

Here you go (the red bar is the inside bar - it's low and high are within the previous bar):



Ben
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Old Aug 11, 2009 6:22pm
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cool thanks benji
Your welcome.
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Old Aug 11, 2009 6:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
If you mentally combine those two bars, it forms a PB - perfectly legit - and snazzy at a nice location.

I use them often at lower time frames - 4hr and 1 hr.

I'll have to look one up, but when I get PA at a PPZ, Outside bar, PB, and a IB forms nudged up against the bar showing PA, I use the break of that IB to enter. It does not happen a lot on the dailies, but they are nice when they do.
Hi SP,

Basically all the "patterns" mean the same - That price is rejected.

If you combine DBHLC, DBLHC, BEOB, BUOB, they are all pin bars. They show that price was rejected. Many times you can combine to daily bars, and on 2 days chart you will get a nice pin bar.

That is the reason we need to understand what price is actually telling us, use common sense and not just enter every every bar like a robot.

(I know you know all this far time ago before me....just felt like writing it lol).

Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 6:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w View Post
IBs on the 4 hour after big moves everywhere though. Check it out.
I saw this post just before I went to bed.
I was thinking to myself why not have some fun? lol. I have placed a few pending orders. Of course on demo...I needed to place TP and SL orders without managing the trades.

I got up and saw 5 winners, one losser. Made me 502 pips over night

Even if you are not so picky, and have looses, this stuff rocks. But of course I would be extremal more picky on real account

Does anyone see the 2 days pin bar on EURNZD ? Off a PPZ, fibs, and divergence. In 2 days chart it would be a perfect PB on my feed...anyway, it it's a DBLHC at daily...good location, confluence.... Well, this one currently experiencing tough time at it's first target like expected. Still positive pips. Anyway I think it has potential, but I won't let it become a big loss if it goes against me.

Hope everybody here is making pips

Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 7:02am
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By the way, when I woke up I saw this beautiful pin bar on EURJPY 4H. A pin bar bounce off the 150ema, and a very significant PPZ. Currently +80 pips, stop moved to BE. Anyone took that?
Is there many pin bars on 4H this morning or it's just me? Anyway took only that one. Trying to pick only the bests.

Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 7:36am
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Yes I have noticed that. It was one of my trades that I took before I went to bed. I was not awake to manage the trade, so I placed a TP order at the first trouble area. Made 42 pips.....I see it took off much further though

Anyway...Dale's "double inside bar" means an inside bar which the previous bar is an inside bar as well? An inside bar within an inside bar?

Thanks

Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 8:46am
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Yes, that's it Ben.
Thanks Jarroo.
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Old Aug 12, 2009 9:13am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
I got up and saw 5 winners, one losser. Made me 502 pips over night

Ben

Ohh me stupid. I confused my TP with the price I closed one of the positions lol.

So I made 170 pips and not 502. Still good.

Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 10:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by salisa View Post
I can't remember who said it but it went something like this: losing is what traders do while they wait for the great A++ set-ups... oooh so true. nothing last week only for a hatful of points to come along this week... does a pin ever look better than this?
This one is really great salisa,

I f price breaks that 136.55 line on your chart, it will act as strong support and we can smile. But I think high possibility it will make trouble and price will consolidate below it for a while.

Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 11:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
The answer? No they don't.

Did I trade Monday? Nope. did I trade tuesday? Nope. It's a waiting game. B/c the taking candy from babies bars COME.
Mike, reading these kind of posts from someone like you make me smile. It's like something inside me is stressing that the way to financial freedom everyone looks for, is real, and it is one step away. We have here something so many others are dreaming to have.

Thank you.

Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 3:22pm
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Default Another trade I took today

Here is another winner I had today.

As usual, I would be glad if the seniors around can give me reasons why NOT entering this trade. It is weird because last week I hardly had one trade...this week 9 so far. I am beggining to think I am not enough picky...I made a total of 8 wins and one looser so far. But does it worth the risk? I mean, maybe I am not enough picky and it will get me in the future. I want to prevent it before it happens.

Here is my last trade....something wrong here?
Thanks guys.
Ben







PS - picky or not....it works again and again and again...amazing. This material is a treasure.
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Old Aug 12, 2009 3:30pm
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Default Correction

There was no divergence. I made a mistake. Edited the pic.

Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 3:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Nice trade Benji. Nice Trade.
Thanks SP.

I found a thing I can improve....I could move my stop to a few pips above that line instead of exiting. I always tell it to myself after a trade, but not doing it. It went down another 35 pips now...

Next time (as I always say...I won't beat myself now lol)...Managing a trade in order to maximize profits is not less important IMO...I will work on it

Thanks.
Ben
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Old Aug 12, 2009 4:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
This is a truly amazing statement.

why?

The "truth" behind this statement is "KNOWN" by many but its like an imaginary fog to new people.

The fog is in there imagination.

Its not really there.

The fog is self imposed and its imposed because people think things must be difficult and complicated to be of use or worth.

How do i remove the fog?

by telling people to be ultra ultra picky.

its a bit of trickery on my part.

why do i do this?

because those that are destined to eventually see that the fog is not real will not discover...
Thank you James.

You are right, and I think this fog starts to gain weakness.
I made a post this week that after you understand this material, the only thing that can kill you is wrong money management or psychology. I think that fog is the psychology....but it clears more every time I exit a winner trade. Every additional winning trade make me gain more confidence. I had a lot of trades this week, but I still feel I didn't force myself to trade only for trading.

By the way, I did not get the opportunity to tell you...but....THANKS!! I'm reading this thread everyday (from the beginning and the current posts) and I feel like it's a so easy business (and proved it as far as I can on my charts). I see other desperate traders cursing this market on other forums after years of experience and screens full of indicators....I'm hardly a few weeks in this business and feel I have something that so many people are seeking for YEARS. I m glad you have started this thread. Thank you.

Ben

PS - I apologize to say this here all the time lol....but just one more time for Jim. I really feel that way.
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Old Aug 12, 2009 4:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
USDCAD Daily - What do you think of this forming BEOB
Hi tradertt,

I think that last yellow line will make trouble to your trade. Not much space for it to run. It is not at a swing High, not really off a PPZ. In addition, you have divergence to the opposite direction. Personally I won't take it.

Hope that helps

Ben


PS - you have ton of lines on your chart. I think that is the reason you call it a PPZ. I would put one or two lines max on the most significant areas cause I like my charts clean and simple as possible. But just my opinion of course.
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Old Aug 13, 2009 7:41am
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Well..I guess today is one of those days when the patience and discipline are critical. No good enough setups for me to trade today

Ben
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Old Aug 13, 2009 1:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grover View Post
Haven't talked about the weekly pin on GBPUSD, so I was wondering where everyone was in it (to those that took it of course). I got stopped out for a whopping 12 pips today after being up over 200 at one point. Since I'm still trying to figure out the 'take profit' side of this, should I have moved my stop up even further to get more pips, or did I do the right thing in leaving it around B/E until the weekly bar closed? I couldn't even really use the two-bar stop method on this one, since there wasn't enough bars yet (on the daily). Should I have...

Hello Grover,

I think that was my riskiest trade this week. I took it mainly because of the location (under a major PPZ 1.7000, round number, fibs, divergence, etc). When I saw that weekly PB I decided to take it.

I am not sure if it's right thinking, but that PB was very small, so I have decided not to get too greedy and take my profit on my first target. On the weekly chart you can hardly understand what price is currently doing. To manage the trade I have zoomed into the 4H. I wanted to make sure of two things:

1. I am entering after price broke a minor PPZ and not getting into it. I want space for my trade to run. I have entered at 1.65660 which acted as a very strong resistance area in the past. I knew that if price breaks it, it would most likely act as resistance and enable me to have a small stop. If price will break that line and come back on me - I don't want to me in this trade anymore.

1. My exit. As you see, the 1.64500 (second orange line) acted as a pivot zone of the past consolidation area on 4H. It is very clear to see that pivot. That will be with no doubt the first trouble area. So I can or take full profit, or trail my stop and take some profit, or move stop to BE at least.
Based on my thought process I have decided to take full profit.
Reasons:
- we are in an uptrend. That trade was only a pullback market makes all the time.
- That pin bar had a very small nose.

200 pips is really nice. You need to protect it from the market hands once you got it. I got out 107 clean pips from that trade and I'm happy. I could enter earlier, but didn't feel good enough for me



I have noticed Mike uses his two bar stop method when he takes breakout trades or entering trades which go with the trend. What he is actually doing, is keeping the profit the market gives him, and leaves room for it to continue. He can do it because he is actually going with the trend. In this case we have just traded a pullback. That's the reason I say swing lows and highs are the best - you are entering a new trend. When you are trading a pullback, you must be careful and have tight stops.

another possibility is to use the two bar stop method but in a lower time frame. If you see the weekly pin bar, trail your stop every two daily or 4H bars.

Take note you must pay attention to SR areas when you trail your stop. All the idea is to "hide" behind a "barrier" that if it breaks, you do not want to be in the trade anymore. Use that method with common sense like everything else in this business. I believe Mike also doesn't follow this method blindly, but using his sharp common sense.

Hope that helps

Ben

PS - Mike, please correct me if I'm wrong about your exit method.
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Old Aug 14, 2009 6:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Here's the 4 hour Eur/Jpy from a few posts ago, upside down and inverted. This is the open space and confluences we're looking for at a swing High.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=40961

Did not get that one on my feed. But from the picture I can see:
1. with the trend.
2. Ton of space.
3. long nose sticking out above the resistance area.

Good job jarroo

Ben
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Old Aug 14, 2009 6:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forexrex View Post
Hey there,
I'm new in here. I'm interested in FX and
made some successful experiences with a
demo software.
Now,before I'll take it to the next level I'd like
to get to know more about trading strategies.
Does anybody know a good page, book or sth. where
stategies are well explained?
To me you all seem to be professional traders.
Where do you have your skills from?

Best regards,
F.

Read the first 150 pages of this thread.
Best book I ever read

Ben


PS - watch the videos at the guest area: http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestmaterial.html
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Old Aug 15, 2009 4:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Great advice Jeff, however I can see some people arguing that sticking to rigid rules might limit the profit, if we agree that the market is a dynamic entity. Should manage each trade dynamically based on how it develops, or the surrounding areas of s/r? I suppose for new traders just sticking to a plan then tweaking it as we gain experience then this is a good plan.

Mark

Jeff, great post, thanks!
But I think I tend to agree with the sir above.

Sometimes I see real nice shaped pin bars off confluence, and I just automatically place my TP order at the first trouble area without thinking, if I know this isn't a long term potential trade (maybe lots of traffic ahead, just a pullback (against the trend), etc...
On the other hand, If I will see a very nice setup at extreame high or low, and with a lot of space to move ahead, I wont have a certain exit rule. I will trail my stop according to the development of the trade, PA. SR areas, etc. (ok. in fact I do use a kind of "rule". But "rule" isn't the right word. It is more a method which combines ton of common sense).
Does that make sense?

Ben
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Old Aug 15, 2009 5:38pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Yes I agree.
My post says this is just an example for the purpose of following a simple plan, not for results. Results are secondary for the exercise for if you cant do that you will never be consistantly profitable.
everyone should should come up with their own plan but if nothing else try what i said for an exercise.
cheers
Jeff
That makes perfect sense
Thanks.

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 3:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Hi folks,
Hope all you fellow traders had a great weekend, no its time to get back to the charts and look for PA.

Im going to play the break of this bearish outside bar on daily, at swing high, divergence and at 61.8 of large move down.

Good trading guys.

Mark
Hello Mark,

I won't take that trade. Please read the charts below, I think it can be helpful.

Ben

Daily chart:




4H chart:

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Old Aug 16, 2009 3:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Hey Ben, thanks for that advice. I agree that divergence can be a killer in trends, however that coupled with the bar and the fib gives me enough to take the trade. I dont look at the 4hr when looking for reasons not to trade or for ppz when trading the daily.

Thanks

Mark

Usually I drop to a lower TF in order to choose the best entry, but that pin just jumped out at me when I saw it.
In addition, we are in an uptrend.

Anyway, hope it will work for you.
Good luck

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 4:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Yeah it looks good but as I said pin bars after rapid declines can be just paused or profit taking. That against a weekly fib is insignificant, it might just mean a retrace of the outside bar on daily.
Don't get me wrong. I didn't say it is a long trade. That pin isn't at swing low, and doesn't have much space. I did not plan to take it. But I use this information to give me a clue about what price is currently doing. It is a good enough sign for me to skip that trade though.

I do not feel comfortable with taking a bearish outside bar on daily, while we are in a overall uptrend and we have bullish signs on a lower TF (that less bothers me). The thing that bothers me more, is the fact that we are in a consolidation pause. Right, market is sideways 90% of time, but those consolidation boxes create an overall trend if you look at the big picture. Sorry if I sound too much confidated about where price is heading (you are right, all possibilities are open), but the fact is that when you have an uptrend that is build from boxes, usually what happens is a breakout in the direction of the trend and so on (right, of course not always). Now even if you look on the daily TF you can see we are consolidating.

I do not feel comfortable with that trade personally. But it is a personal issue. Just thought it can help you as a reminder to take into account. You are the only decision maker of your account after all.

You must remember that maybe it will work. Even if there is a quite good chance it will work, I PERSONALLY know that there are better setups to come. Maybe I am too much picky, but I just do what I am comfortable with and try to use my sense.

No offense or something like that.

Good luck.

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 4:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Also look at weekly it has a BEOB also.

PERSONALLY I do not like outside bars which are looking like natural bars in their shape (dojis). I think those setups need to reflect the current situation in the market. That bar on the weekly looks very undecidable. A few pips upper and the candle will be green.
By the way, I am not sure, but I think that for a BEOB to be veiled, it needs to close at least at the fourth or third LOWER quarter of the bar itself.

Edit: It isn't a valid BEOB. For a BEOB to veiled it need to close in the bottom third to quarter of the bar.
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Old Aug 16, 2009 5:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
I was glad to see the debate on this daily/4hr AUDUSD....
Hi Kiss,

Personally I did not take that trade cause I wanted to see more space, but that was a good trade and I'm happy you are making pips
I will just add my thoughts about how managing a trade like this. Maybe it will help.
Look at the blue consolidation box on the pic below. This is a good pin because it's nose is sticking out of the box and got rejected real fast. James trades consolidation boxes if I'm not wrong. In a situation like this, I would place my take profit order at the top of the consolidation box (look how price reserved their). I won't tray to trail my stops cause I do not feel price is going out of that box. Only if I have confidence in a trade to last for the long term, I trail my stops.





Currently my plan is to wait for a breakout of those bar highs which form resistance. Once price broke through, I want to see a pullback, and only then a PA setup on that resistance which will hopefully become support. Then I will be trailing my stops because there will be nothing close enough to stop me. Currently you are based under a strong resistance and IMO it will continue to rage in that blue box until a breakout will form.

Hey! That is just my opinion and how I see things



Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 5:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Yeah its a doji, but paired with the last bar its a pin bar right of the 61.8 and 0.8500 level. Anyway, we can debate all night, price will do what it wants. Lets see how it plays out. Im not so choosy so I can see why you wouldnt play it.
It is a great discussion in my opinion cause everyone is learning from it.
Good luck whatever you do mate

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 5:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tac View Post
Yes I agree been cheers, Good luck on the 4 hr pin.

I am short on the break, not expecting 1000 pips here, just to first area then ill decide from there. Its gaped down a bit though looking at my feed.
I am not taking that pin because there is not enough space created and there are many barriers in the way. I do not feel comfortable with it.
Just watching for now.

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 5:20pm
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Default AUDZND daily

Is anyone monitoring this one? It broke the support eventually.
I am interested in going short if I will see a good entry.

Ben

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Old Aug 16, 2009 7:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
Hey Ben, james highlighted the 1.24 and 1.23 Areas as 2 PPz's for this pair since a little over a year ago.
Good eyes.
Glad to hear that.
Actually I got this kind of thinking and viewing the charts from Mike. I love his style

Lets see what we can get out of this pair

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 7:46pm
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Glad to hear that.
Actually I got this kind of thinking and viewing the charts from Mike. I love his style

Lets see what we can get out of this pair

Ben

BTW I am looking tightly at the USDCHF. I think it can be very interesting when it will break.
In the meantime I am looking for trades off the tunnel edges with PA confirmation like James does.

Ben


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Old Aug 16, 2009 7:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
woow, James and Mike together, man that's a surefire, you are aiming very high.
I am more greedy though, I love both styles , both are very relaxing, and been trying to add The voodoo man's (Rac) style, the cheeky trading ....

Good luck
LOL just edited that post for people that can get me wrong. I meant to say a combination of their styles.....but being a good trader like them will be quite hard I think lol

Thanks bro! take care

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 10:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljr View Post
This isn't a pair I have traded before but noticed this Pin bar on the daily. This is the 3rd time price has made an attempt at this level. 09/12/2005, 29/02/2008 and 14/08/2009. My data doesn't go back before 2005 so I cannot see any other confluence.

I'm not going to trade this live as this pair looks very choppy and I don't have any experience with it but would be interested from a Technical Analysis point of view what others think.

If price did move up the bar lows from early Jan 2009 could be a concern and are not very far away, especially...

I took this one at the break of the pin.
Extreme swing low of all times, nice looking pin, strong divergence.
I like it Hopefully it will run for the long term.

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 10:44pm
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Originally Posted by mike w View Post
Spot on brother....
Hi Mike,

Great to hear that. I will diffenetly be interested.

By the way...can you please explain why is there a big difference between I4B and regular IBs? Just curios about the logic behind it.

Thanks,

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 10:55pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Dude, when talked about this before. check some of your own post.

Remember?? . . .
Yea, I know the difference technically.

I will try to say it different.

Why do they work better? ok, the X previous bars are larger....why does it make difference or have larger quality than regular IBs without a bunch of larger bars before?

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 11:00pm
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Originally Posted by mike w View Post
Well, IMHO, it's simple. It's just a normal consolidation routine after big runs or tightening markets. These will oftentimes signal BIG breakouts (as you'll see) or reversals in markets. If I were you, I would go through and disect each and every single one of MBQB11's posts. Do it. Do it now. Do it. You'll be better for it if you do.

In my experience, due diligence is rewarded. The book of Proverbs tells us that. I'm not even all that holy (maybe hellbound), but even I know that.
ok! I will do it! I will do it....tomorrow! lol
Almost morning here...I rather go to sleep now.

Thanks for the reply though.

Ben
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Old Aug 16, 2009 11:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
They agree with yours, mike. Regular IBs is a tighting indecision of Price. Hence, an opportunity.

An I4B or I10+B is an increased tighting indecsion by its historic past ranges, which may produce an even bigger Breakout.
Thanks jarroo and mike.
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Old Aug 17, 2009 7:07am
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Sorry to hear that KISS, I had played a similar pin bar on EUR/AUD going with trend ( last week) which put me off long position on AUD, but it also did the same. Could have went either way but divergence and 61.8 fib really convinced me of this one. Thanks for your comments also.

Update to this trade is I moved my stops to 0.8350 to cut my risk but still give room to move. Now at 110 pips Stop Loss rather than 250+

Mark
congrats. I'm glad you are making pips

Ben
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Old Aug 17, 2009 11:22am
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Default Update

Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Is anyone monitoring this one? It broke the support eventually.
I am interested in going short if I will see a good entry.



Ben

The pullback to the previous support is almost done.
Lets see if I can get any bearish PA confirmation on that line

I do not have any EMAs or fibs that line up with that orange line...however I have confidence in that level to be acting now as resistance, cause it was a strong support area for a long time. See all those bar lows and then the hard breakout.
Price is also trending down...making lower lows...we have the pull back...I think all those factors plus hidden divergence plus PA confirmation (if will be any) is enough for me to take it.
If anyone can spot bad factors, it will be appreciated as well.

Monitoring it closely now

PS - did I draw the hidden divergence right? First time I am using it. I'm not sure about it. Hope I have used it right.



Ben
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Old Aug 17, 2009 12:08pm
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Hey Ben

Yes that is done correctly

Best
Mike
Thanks mate

Ben
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Old Aug 17, 2009 12:38pm
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Originally Posted by forexrex View Post
Hey benji 533, ghous and finnishforex thanks for your replies. I've never heard about Varengold before? What are your experiences? benji533 and ghous are you using this platform as well? What's a must when chosing a platform?
THX for your help!
Hey...sorry, missed your post earlier.
I use MT4 as well.

Ben
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Old Aug 17, 2009 1:09pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post

After a trip like that messing your mood up with a trade missed (which we know isn't the worst thing possible) is the last thing you want to do, well except the case where you want to blame your "pickiness" for the missed trade.

Ghous.
Great post ghous!

I miss many winners because I am a bit more picky. But I prefer just watching a winner go without me instead of getting a looser that I wasn't comfortable with from the first place.

It is obvious that if you have more trades you have more winners...but more losers as well....it's all a question of what suites your personality the best way.

I have no problem missing winners which are not A trades for me. I know it will happen a lot.
Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 7:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Mike. I'm in this great trade and my only regret is that I took half off the table and now I'm letting the 2nd half ride.

I don't know how you don't it . . . . not taking some off the table ( actually I do know how and why you do it.)

But I just couldn't do it . . . I couldn't do it.
Still on that trade?!
WOW...good for you buddy

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 9:59am
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Hi everyone,

I must admit I was thinking on this subject yesterday for a long time..I thought maybe to make a post.

I would be more than happy to hear other opinions about my thoughts.

Lets say I am a very experienced trader which made his way down slowly from weekly to the 1 hour. Lets say I have all day just for watching charts and trade.

Lets say I get 3 A++ setups every month on daily in average (even I think it is more likely 1, but ok).
So first my thinking was "one move at daily worth 200 pips, why trade the 1H for only 40 pips? Those intraday traders must be nuts and bored to death".

But now as I look at it, there is no difference. If I get a 200 pips move on the daily chart while I have a 200 pips stop, I am gaining the exact same amount of money if I get a 40 pips move on 1 hour with a 40 pip stop on the 1H chart while risking the same % of my account at the two trades.

See, it depends on the position size more than the move of pips.


The weekly and daily charts are absolutely better for people that work full time and do not have time to watch their charts, it also takes alot of pressure away when your pip value is lower, you are able to control your emotions better and make better decisions.
But the problem is a very few trading opportunities...it can make some people nuts.

I really see the advantages of the weekly and daily, but now lets see what will happen on 1H.
Lets say I risk 1.5% of my account on each trade, while picking only the A++ setups. Lets say I can get 10 trades like that a month if I am looking on 25-30 forex pairs, gold and silver.
Basically, if I trade a pin bar (not aggressively) every move in the length of the pin will make a gain of 1.5% of my account. So lets say I take potential long moves, and in average make a move 0f 1-3 times the length of the pin at least. That will make me a 30% gain a month (please do not think I have lost my mind. I know it is a super duper huge percentage).

I am not being hypnotized by greediness (hope so lol), just thoughts.

Aren't I am right? If I have time and can master the 1H, I can make much more money.
On the other hand, I can try and play weekly and daily pins more aggressive in order to get a big pip move with a larger position size.


Bottom line, after you master the lower time frames, there is more money to be done there. But you need first, master those time frames, second, have a lifestyle that fits it, and third know how to control your emotions on those time frames that is harder IMO.
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Old Aug 18, 2009 10:16am
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
I'll tell you the use.

If the max trade ran figure across a hundred trades is 50 or 60 times what you actually made out of it, then you need to look at your profit taking strategy.

It seems you're getting a little aggressive around this now tac so I won't continue this conversation with you. Everything I believe I've already posted.

Hi,

Personally I love your posts. They helped me. Thank you.

Just a thought on your last post - maybe trailing stops strategy (Mike has a few) will be the solution for maximizing profits and cutting the loosers. I'm currently back testing it.

I'm glad you are sharing you experience with us. You seem to be in this business for a while.

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 11:29am
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Default GBP\NOK

Anyone looks at those exotic pairs?
Why not trading them? A chart is a chart, PA is PA, isn't it?

Here is a trade I am considering to take if the current bar will close as a pin (like it is now).

with the trend, very clear PPZ ( also in the past), off 60EMA, exact four fib confluence long term 50%, short term 50%, 61.8% and 23.6%, reasonable nose length sticking out above the resistance.

This is also a breakout pattern. Long term downtrend, price broke through strong support, pullback occurred, now lets see if it will close as a pin and get the PA confirmation.

Ben

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Old Aug 18, 2009 12:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eclipse View Post
In my opinion the central point it's not the account size, but the pickiness and R/R ratio.


2. Now let's considering the 5min. timeframe. Same account size, same risk percentage, same quality setups, but here you need a 10 pips SL, and, on average, the profit is 30 pips. You can open a 1,5 lots position so that your profit is 15$/pip. Your gain per pip is higher, but here you have an R/R of 1:3. You have to focus on 3-4 pairs (can you manage 20 for the whole day?), make extremely fast decisions and watching charts all day.
Well, nobody...
Hey Eclipse,

I think 5 min chart is too hard. I can say personally, even if I will do it for 50 years, it will be hard for me to see 3% of my account blown by a 10 pip move.

This is true only theoretically...for me at lest.

Making super fast decisions is always a factor for failure, also in life beyond trading, but especially trading.
It is when your emotion take their part and smash you. that's way J16 tells us to work our way down.

Anything under 1H will be too hard for me, so I even don't think about it as a possibility.

However I kinda agree with your theory. It reminds my last post on this subject.

Just my two cents..

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 12:18pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
This is what people BELIEVE is the truth, but the reality is trading is what you make of it....
Hi Mike,

Thanks. I will tell you this...I do not trade anything under the 4H (rarely I look at the 1H, but mostly for finding better entries for breakout trades AFTER I MADE MY ANALYSIS ON DAILY OR 4H ONLY).
That is simply because I have tried it on demo and I know my emotions freak me out on these lower time frames. I am just not enjoying doing that, and feel really bad after it.

I do not made that post after thinking how can I maximize my profits. My original thought process was that I am too Bord on those weekly and daily charts. Months can pass and I will not enter even one trade...and I know that when it happens, I will start making bad decisions and take B trades. I do not want it to happen.

If I could watch much more pairs on daily I would be much happier. The problem is that there are not enough.
I hear people say look at commodities, futures, options etc, but honestly, I took a look on those charts and I went nuts only from looking at them. They are so messy, huge gaps everywhere. I know James says forex is harder to trade, but I don't see it that way. I do however look at exotic forex pairs which look reasonable.

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 1:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dengzhi View Post
it will not replace your daytime job..
I do not like this sentence at all. Are you actually saying it is not possible to make a living from forex in your opinion?

I believe different.

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 1:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Guys what's wrong,

All day we've been picking a line or 2 out of a great post and dropped upon it like a tonne of bricks.

I am sure he didn't mean this at all Benji,

Jeez...
lol sorry guys.

I have just went through so many trails to get myself a hope for financial freedom in a way I love doing it (not a job, as jim says).

When I see sentences like that it freaks me out

Cheers

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 1:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Anyone looks at those exotic pairs?
Why not trading them? A chart is a chart, PA is PA, isn't it?

Here is a trade I am considering to take if the current bar will close as a pin (like it is now).

with the trend, very clear PPZ ( also in the past), off 60EMA, exact four fib confluence long term 50%, short term 50%,...
I have skipped this trade.
The bar didn't close within the prior bar.

most likely it will take off, but I want only the a++ ones they will come eventually!

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 1:41pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
I can understand Ben,

but just so you feel better...

"Yes you can live off trading forex"



Ghous.


LOL
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Old Aug 18, 2009 4:00pm
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i got news for you benji my friend.

money makes things easier and thats about it.

whats the greatest thing money ever did for me?

when i finally had some i still felt totally unfullfilled and it triggered a spiritual search in my life and i dont mean religion.

a journey inwards instead of outwards.

im convinced life is just a "school" and im also convinced when its over we will have a good laugh at how silly it was for so many of us to be so neurotic about everything. me included.
Hi James,

I was out to the gym, so saw your post only now.

Money is absolutely not the thing that will make me happy.
BUT, I enjoy trading, I enjoy learning and facing challenges (like you), and I will be happy to spend the time in this temporary world doing things I like, or things that have value. Money can help with that, by making it easier to achieve, as you already said.

Happiness is a whole different story.

I as well as you believe this life is a school, or lets say, an "exam". But my take is a bit different here, and I think it doesn't really belong to this thread.

I appreciate your post

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 5:02pm
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Default Super great post StoragePro!!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
I'm in cruise control mode right now......
Great post SP!

That is a subject that is discussed in many psychological trading books, and it is very important in my opinion.

That will sound crazy for many, but I think the psychology aspects of trading is sharing 50% in your needs to become a successful trader. It is such a strong thing.

We, as traders, must understand that we must fit ourselves to the market, instead of trying to fit it to us. For example, there are people that trade in purpose of making money cause they really need it (that's ok till now). But we must understand that the market doesn't give a damn *!#@& for what we need. A trader who enters a trade, only cause he really really needs or wants the money, even if the market doesn't offering anything at the moment, will lose - he is trying to fit the market to his needs. A trader who enters a trade and exits in time is a trader that takes what the markets offers him - fits himself to the market.

The same thing is with humility. We need to put our desires and needs aside (even if critical), when we are trading this market. Otherwise it will just make the situation worse. This is one of the keys.

Guys, I know many of you may think trading psychology, or psychology in general is bullshit. But I want to share to books witch improved my way of handling my trades dramatically. Everyone is more that advised to take his time to read them during the weekends.

Ben
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Old Aug 18, 2009 5:24pm
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Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
I just wanted to take this opportunity to say hello to the people on this thread which I plan to join in on.

I'm brand new as a member here, but not quite new to forex.

Anyway, may I ask if others are seeing the same as I see when viewing the weeklies - JPY strength across the pairs?

Also, to Benji: I thought it was about time that I start spending some time on this thread and not just over at the other forum.
Hi mac!

just saw your nick at the bottom and was wondering....I have missed your post.

Welcome to the thread mate I'm sure you will find it pretty useful.

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 6:10am
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Great post, and I know you mean well... but I am gonna take a shot in the dark here and suggest that sharing copyrighted materials is probably not kosher. or halal. Or, as we say here, beer.

You are probably right

One of them I have found for free just by goggling it.
Oh well, hope everyone got them in time....cause I have just removed them from the post

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 6:43am
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Quote:
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Where's Ben, he would show you.
Was sleeping

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trader100 View Post
Hi.

I wanted to know how to take profit and if this is the right way to place SL. See pic (red line is stoploss)

Thanks
Hi Trader100,

I can't tell you where I would be taking profit, cause I can't see the big picture. Usually I do not play outside bar....currently I'm sticking to the pins.
There are many factors you should consider before taking a bar like that, like how much traffic is in the way, is it based at swing high, does it have the potential for a long term run, what resistance (confluence) is supporting the trade, etc...


What I'll do is give you the areas you should be aware of, and why. You will decide what to do there.

Yellow line - probably where you would like to enter the trade (by the way, the second green bar from the left found support at that line because it was old resistance. Price flips).

White line - You see the high of the green bar high from the left? Old Resistance....that's why the red bar in your trade found support there. You should be aware of that area.

Blue line - You can see than area was rejected by three bars in the past. Strong support. I will almost every time will make big trouble, and it did. Again, I can't see the big picture from your cropped chart, but if you are trading a very crowded range, it will be an ideal place to get out.

Listen to Jarroo, look for bar highs and lows at the left.

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 9:08am
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Default Another nailed one (:



This one I preferred not to trail, but to take full profit.
Mainly because I was against the main trend, but also because this area is a quite strong support, now also double bottom with strong divergence on daily.

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 9:16am
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I still in it and just trailing my Stop manually.
Hi nasir,

Just edited my post and explained why I took full profit there:

This one I preferred not to trail, but to take full profit.
Mainly because I was against the main trend, but also because this area is a quite strong support, now also double bottom with strong divergence on daily.

That area is also a dailly very strong PPZ and kissing the long term trend lune I have on my daily chart. If it was a breakout trade which is with the main trend, I would be trailing my stops.

But it doesn't mean you won't get a good run here....just personal preference that I feel comfortable with good luck.

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 9:28am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
I am still in it and just trailing my Stop manually.
Nasir, here is a daily chart with my thought process:

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Old Aug 19, 2009 9:51am
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I really want to get out of this post and pat you on the back Ben,

This is how when and where one starts to "get" it.

Congrats on making to it.

"Staying there" is another thing and your next big challenge...

Keep it up bro...

Thanks man. I appreciate your feedback, but I have learned everything from the big guys here

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 10:10am
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Default AUDUSD

I saw this PB off solid support and couldn't resist

Anyone in this trade with me? Stop already at BE. I'll let it run, if it takes me out at BE, let it be.

Ben

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Old Aug 19, 2009 10:40am
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Originally Posted by layton View Post
Nice, Benji

You're in the zone
Thanks.
It is taking off right now. Moved to the 30 min chart to trail my stops. I'll use mike's 2B stop..for the first time
Some profit already locked in.

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 10:57am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Stoped out at 190 pips back from 300 pips.

I think you really knew what was going to happen to my pips and would have saved me some 120+ pips. But when you posted your charts i was on my from office to home and that's a big disadvantange i have for not being online at a crucial time (NY OPEN).

I had this trend line+ 89 MA and you could also see the orange box in my charts above.

BUT I CHOSE TO LEARN IT THE HARD WAY.
Never mind. Don't let it bother you too much. Some times learning the hard way is an advantage. Now I'm sure you will remember look for those things next time you trade against the trend.

Keep nailing them bro!

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 11:33am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Thanks.
It is taking off right now. Moved to the 30 min chart to trail my stops. I'll use mike's 2B stop..for the first time
Some profit already locked in.

Ben

What is going on?!?!

Price was 0.6 of the pip from my stop and than hooted up for 20 pips which are a lot for this trade!
LOL still in this trade.

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Old Aug 19, 2009 2:53pm
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Just got stopped out after a good run on this one, made 2% profit
After I saw I was 0.6 a pip from missing a big move, I decided to go back and trail my stops on the 1H instead of the 30min, and it paid off.



Mike, I am one of your followers (), and I have noticed You are using the BAT indicator for exits sometimes.

I have putted it on my chart for asking you something.
Will it be right to say that it is better to use the 2B exit strategy when sharp moves occur, and use the BAT when price moves more in consolidation ans slowly?
I have used the 2B stop here and locked good profit, while the BAT is quite lagging.....

In which condition you will prefer the BAT ?

I am learning tons from you Mike! THANK YOU!

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 3:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Ben

The intricacies of the trail is way to long to really explain here....
I understand.
Thanks Mike.

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 6:20pm
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Default Some recent breakout patterns

Yesterday night I was drawing some lines for breakout patterns. Unfortunately did not take anyone. Some are good, some less because there was no PA or pullback.

But I wanted to post them cause it is amazing IMO how every single one of them broke and did what is supposed to do. I'm sure someone could made some good pips out of them.

Ben

Edit: I can upload only 5 pics, but I have 9 like these that are recent. Won't make another post for spamming here too much lol, but there are so many good opportunities out there!





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Old Aug 19, 2009 6:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
You notice the price action around those breaks by chance?
Hey, I know these are not the best examples...now thinking on that, I souldn't post them But I can see the PA.

Chart - there is a pullback, then a DBHLC.
Chart 2 - there is a pullback (not to the pip though) and than a break of an inside bar.
Chart 3 - zoom into a lower TF and you will see a BEOB.
Chart 4 - break of an inside bar on lower TF.
Chart 5 - Nice BEOB, but no pullback.

I would trade only those That have a pullback and than a good PA confirmation though. You are right.

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 7:28pm
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I was just wondering if any of you combine 2 or 3 bars into one bar or if it is best just to stick to 1 bar at a time.
You could interpret this as a pin bar although its formed over 3 days. It still is reading price action and getting the same information that price has been rejected for a certain level in the market.

There was a post not long ago about this and I found it interesting as I never thought to visualize multiple bars forming into one. My only concern would be perhaps not every one views it like this and the signals of combining a...
Hi supermatt,

I know many tend to combine bars, but I personally don't to that. IMO it isn't the same. All the idea behind pin bars, as I see it, is a sign that price reached a certain spot, but got rejected very fast for some reason. When the nose is longer, it means the price went far, and got rejected even harder. Longer noses = sharper, faster and more powerful rejection.

If you combine two bars, it means much less. The rejection was far less significant, especially if the nose isn't extra long after the rejection. Dose it make sense? Every time I tend to ask myself what does the price is actually telling me. Learn it's language. Don't be a robot.

But hey, This is only based on my OWN THOUGHTS and how I SEE IT. Not saying it's a fact. That should be clear.

Ben
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Old Aug 19, 2009 7:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
I was just wondering if any of you combine 2 or 3 bars into one bar or if it is best just to stick to 1 bar at a time.
You could interpret this as a pin bar although its formed over 3 days. It still is reading price action and getting the same information that price has been rejected for a certain level in the market.

There was a post not long ago about this and I found it interesting as I never thought to visualize multiple bars forming into one. My only concern would be perhaps not every one views it like this and the signals of combining a...
I'll add this - Wen I read your chart, I see more indecision of price. It is ranging. I don't feel like it wad rejected hard enough to be able to break the strong resistance above it. There is no momentum.
Hope it helps.

Ben
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Old Aug 20, 2009 9:22am
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post

For example, I've been guilty of seeing a setup by a guy I look up to an entering on it. Sometimes they go to the moon. Are they within my rules? Not even close. Those are failed trades to me. Once when I did that, the trade made 5R. Still a failed trade. Why? Because I broke my rules and was led around by my nose by a forum post.

My view of what's a moronic trade has changed. And it has very little to do with whether they win or lose.
I think this is a great post. I can add and say, sometimes big winners can be even more dangerous than losers.
When you break your rules and get an huge winner, you get the wrong impression and think "why not do that again? it was a great winner". Then you do that again, but this time you get killed.
There are good winners, and bad winners IMO. The bad winners are simply KILLERS.

Thanks for the post.

Ben
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Old Aug 20, 2009 9:32pm
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Hey P

This is my exact chart I had already marked up for someone else prior to this trade executing. The blue are the trouble areas. First one was hit and stopped right there. Is it wrong to hold a trade? No. It's more important to understand where these areas are and then react accordingly. I personally use information such as the size of a bar to decide to hold or not through these areas. This is one such size bar that would put me in the take profit mode. Simply for my style that is.

Hope that helps
Mike
Hi Mike master of breakouts I need your advice.

I have been looking for some breakout patterns today and found this lovely exotic pair EURSEK. It was squeezing during the last month, and it is with the trend. In addition, there are no special trouble areas in the way, so it can catch a good run.

My only concern is that divergence. Do you skip good setups when you have that kind of divergence at extreme low? looking scary to me

By the way, boring day for me....no good enough trade opportunities...patient, discipline, patient, discipline...

Ben
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Old Aug 20, 2009 10:53pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Ben

Here is a post I made in the PF.

I will trade breakouts like this, but I am well aware of the divergence, and know not to get greedy. This presents us with opportunities not only to the downside but the long side. The question was with oversold/bought conditions and I used the eur/sek in my breakout thread as an example


Basically you can sort of see it, but MACD helps hint at this for me too....
Interesting...
Let me guess, you have plotted the 1.0000 because it's a round number? I need to be more aware of them.

I know that playing breakouts against the trend is a no-no for you, but in this case we are at extreme low with strong divergence. Maybe it's a real reserval. Anyway if I'll take it long, I will most likely consider taking full profit at the 10.4000 round number and major PPZ level....mainly because we will be facing a strong trend. But I will prefer breaking short.
It can be interesting.

Thanks for your reply buddy

Ben

Edit: In a second thought...I won't take it long at all...too strong trend and lots of traffic for this.
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Old Aug 21, 2009 9:59am
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Edited
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Old Aug 21, 2009 10:24am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hi Mike master of breakouts I need your advice.

I have been looking for some breakout patterns today and found this lovely exotic pair EURSEK. It was squeezing during the last month, and it is with the trend. In addition, there are no special trouble areas in the way, so it can catch a good run.

My only concern is that divergence. Do you skip good setups when you have that kind of divergence at extreme low? looking scary to me

By the way, boring day for me....no good enough trade opportunities...patient, discipline, patient, discipline...

Ben...
Man! where is my lovely pullback now? Come back!!

LOL

By the way, anyone took the GBPJPY 1H BUOB? usually I trade only pin bars...but now I have started demoing the outside bars as well I'm still in.

Ben
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Old Aug 21, 2009 10:51am
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Originally Posted by batesmotel View Post
GY long looking good on 4hr if it can hold...Sorry, wrong chart....I meant UJ...

GregB
WOW UJ is really shooting up like mad! didn't see it...anyway I prefer not taking more that one JPY pair at the same time cause they are too much the same. Lets see what I can get out of the GY

Ben
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Old Aug 21, 2009 11:14am
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Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Here is another rant from me :-)
Before two nights ago I hadnt taken a trade in about a month, I was on vacation for about 2 weeks and the other 2 weeks were just no trades for me.

I took the EUR CAd Daily pin the other night, It may not have been an A+ because it was in a bit of traffic. But nice pin, round number, with trend, BANG ! for me anyway. My plan was to use a bar break stop when it dropeped about 30 pips. I did which reduced my risk. But before I went to bed last night I dropped down to the 4 hr and ot scared becasue there were pins...
Hi dmc,

Personally I don't think you have done anything wrong about moving your stop to BE. How could you know it will take off for 100 pips in the future?

On the 4H you have a clearly uptrend. See the strong support under your pin. I wouldn't take a risk in a situation of trading against the trend with a strong PPZ under me.
In this situation, if I would take this pin, the first thing that will jump out at me will be that recent choppy area. I always box those areas so I can see them clearly in my mind. One I hit the bottom of the consolidation, I will or take full profit, OR move stop to BE. I will never let a potential winner to turn into a loser in those conditions I have mentioned above. We have the knowledge of support and resistance. Lets use it smartly.

Don't let it bother you! Jim says BE is a winner. I think, mentally, being stopped out at BE is better than taking a lose.

Just be patient and take the good ones (I like my pins at the end of a rally, and not of a consolidation. A sharp turn.)

Good luck,

Ben
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Old Aug 21, 2009 11:34am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
WOW UJ is really shooting up like mad! didn't see it...anyway I prefer not taking more that one JPY pair at the same time cause they are too much the same. Lets see what I can get out of the GY

Ben

Got out with 185 pips gain here...Yippee!

I have entered the trade based on triple bottom with strong bullish divergence (I like these setups), and a BUOB off a round number.
So we have the combination of triple bottom, divergence, round number and BUOB.

I was trailing my stops with the BAT on the 1H, till I saw that HUGE BUB. So I decided I will go down to the 30min and placed my stop at a round number, which is a PPZ. When I saw that 30min bearish pin bar I knew I don't want to be in this trade anymore.

My 12 winner out of 13 trades!! But unfortunately the daily GBPNZD looks like it's going to take out with a lose very soon....ohh well!

Ben
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Old Aug 21, 2009 12:15pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Absolutely great going Ben.

It's great when you can get your mind to do exactly what should be done eh?
Yea absolutely!

Sometimes I feel I get too much braggart. I don't mean that...but it's a weird situation. I am 16 years old (yea, there is someone younger than you here LOL) hardly 2-3 months trading and its too easy.
I see many people over another forum crying after years of time and money wasted.
At least I got rid of those PONZI schemes and MLMs I was into

I think it's the hand of god Johnny introduced me to this thread! I'm sure.

Ben
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Old Aug 21, 2009 12:37pm
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16?? Yeah well, knew I wouldn't be the youngest here forever...but never thought it would be a 16 year old beat me at it.

I don't know what else to say Ben except that you fascinate me...you're way beyond your years.

Ghous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
16?! WTF! I couldn't even post what I was doing at 16.

You sir have a bright future you have no idea.

I swear every 6 months someone younger and younger is TRADING! Soon it will be a 7 year old on here passing on this info

Kudos to you

Mike
Thanks guys, you made me smile

But Mike, I think I told you, I'm just love learning. You, james and the seniors around are the real amazing people here! Thanks again for all of you!

Ben
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Old Aug 21, 2009 1:53pm
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Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
PS: just whent to your profile an sow that you are from Israel, now I know whay you people are the best bankers from the world
LOL, funny

Thanks guys.

SP, I learned a ton from your posts only (you too jarroo)

Ben
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Old Aug 21, 2009 3:42pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
holy geez ben.

im stunned.

impressed for sure but just as surprised.

we now have our own billy the kid.

only here its benji the kid.

im making that official.

very cool. very very cool. no very very very cool.
Thank you James.
I am glad to be here in this thread (family ). Really.

Ben
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Old Aug 22, 2009 1:40pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
........133.00 round number. (Mike would be proud!)
Hey Mike,

Personally I play less attention to round numbers (every 100 pips) on daily and weekly simply because I have noticed they do not really have any dramatic effect on the price.
Most of the time weekly and daily pin bars will be working also without looking at location.
On the other hand, I can see ton of PA setups on the 1H which do not work.

IMO, it is simply because the weekly and daily contain much more information in them (info of a longer period). They are not effected from the noise in the market. When you look at them, you can understand where price is going and what happens in the market. On the other hand, those 1H bars are nothing really important. They can show a sudden movement that have no meaning for several of reasons like: trades took profit, SL trigger, news etc.

I think using the round numbers on the lower time frames like 1H is much more effective, simply because most of the order flow of the intraday traders, is based around them. Many times I see a pin on the 1H between round numbers and against the trend - they do not work. There is nothing to push them.
When price heads into a round number, many times it will hang around it for a few bars period - that is the time when all the orders trigger. I have talked to another trader yesterday that is trading for a few years already. What he does, is placing a buy stop above the round number and a sell stop below it. When price hangs around a round number for a while, and triggers all the order flow, it will eventually go in one way many times straight to the next round number.

I think that most of the trades aware of what I have said till now, but their problem is to predict the direction. By the price action setups James is teaching, we have the advantage to know which direction.

-So basically, to sum it up:
- on higher time frames, round numbers are not THAT important.
- A smart way to trade the lower time frames will be looking for a clear PA setup off big round number because then you have the orderflow pushing you (Am I right? ).

By the way, PPZs here are easy (on lower TFs), because most of the time those round numbers on the 1H are the PPZs already (the big round numbers, aka order flow, are creating those PPZs ), so if I see minor PPZs in the way, I can use them to manage the trades - But not to base a entry of a trade off them.

Ohh and by the way Mike, I think you once told me that you do not trail stops on lower time frames, but look for targets. Am I correct?


Sorry for the long post hope I got the things right.


Ben
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Old Aug 22, 2009 2:04pm
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Originally Posted by nuclear62 View Post
Hello all, have a great weekend!

I just had to post because i?m so with you benji, i started 15 years old and i?m now 17, fantastic

Hope you all have great coming week also, i love this thread!

Nuclear
15 is younger than me Good luck!

Quote:
Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
I'll join in: 16!!!

I'm planning to trade my way to financial freedom within ten years, that is, before I'm 40.
I believe you can do it mac Thanks man.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Radsson View Post
Just don't forget about girls and other stuff called real life
Me? ohh don't worry about me I'm fine...don't need to chase them anymore...at least for now

Ben
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Old Aug 22, 2009 3:58pm
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Yes - and notice that the big PPZ's form around these round numbers.

On the lower TF's I am guilty of not taking notice of them. That makes no sense - speaking from experience....
Thanks SP for your reply
I have started demoing these setups off round numbers on the 1H, but I am very picky with them. Usually I will take a PA trade off a round number only if there are more confluence factors (I like clear divergence), space (so there won't be something to block me. I have no intentions to hold positions on this TF), and of caourse if the PA bar itself is a pitbull and not a chihuahua And by the way, if the next bar won't break the PA bar, I will cancel my order simply because the lack of momentum (that can be a sign of weakness or indecision of the market at that stage, especially at areas of heavy order flow - so I rather be out, be safe).
I don't get many trades even on the 1H, but I can say all of them that I did take were winners till now, so that is quite like Jim says about the sick antelope

I was just curios if Mike plays that much attention to round numbers on daily and weekly charts.

Ohh and this is something I found - it draws your round numbers automatically plus you can set alarms when price hits those lines it can help you on the lower TFs.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=22217&page=1


Ben

PS - Till now I was trading only pin bars. Now that I feel very comfortable with them, I moving on to demo the outside bars.
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Old Aug 22, 2009 4:39pm
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You were talking about bias earlier...
I too have mine about the daily GY.
Currently, as I see the yen pairs, they are quite consolidating, so it will be hard to catch long moves. Last time price failed to form a higher high, so if price reaches 160.00 again with this bearish divergence, I'll be looking for bearish PA off the 163.000
Other option - if the price will manage to break the 163.000 level, I'll be looking for a breakout pattern. If price breaks through the double top and pulls back, I'll take any good bullish PA bar long. I'm sure Mike is looking at this too

Currently I prefer staying out of the daily with this pair


These are the options I would like to see:
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Old Aug 22, 2009 5:04pm
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Originally Posted by Eclipse View Post
This is the EXACTLY same thing I was thinking this morning while I was in the shower! lol!
And I keep saying "hey, traders who work on smaller timeframes have to watch a ton. of crosses, stocks etc., so thay cannot monitor every stock, cross in the same time, so they are likely to use some limit or stop orders at some levels, but which levels? maybe round numbers (00, 50)..."
It's good to see someone who shares your opinion
Cool
Yea these levels are important for intraday traders cause it is where the order flow is based.


@SP - I have found that indicator only a few days ago..still didn't used the alarm. Try playing with it till you figure it out.

Thanks for your post
Ben
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Old Aug 22, 2009 11:49pm
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16y.o.?! Great revelation!
hey, i think u know that not all MLMs are fake schemes. btw, who's Johnny?

I find it uber-amazing a 16y.o. is trading amongst us! no wonder u are a fast learner! u are a sponge since i think u have not been "tainted" yet, trading-wise... U started with the correct foot with the james16 thread!!!!

Now, let's have another lurker reveal to us that he/she's 13 or even 10y.o.

hey, thanks. MLMs are not schemes, they are completely legal. I have been marketing an Israeli lottery company...even done quite well. I was advertising myself and spent time with potential leads over the phone - but guess what....no one in my team worked, and they all just cried that they are loosing money. At a certain point I just couldn't tell people that it worth to join after all the other people loosed their money. I decided to quit during the time I was still making a few buck profit from it each month. It was taking all my time....I hated doing it. Just not fits my personality. I also feel that the people in this business just don't damn care about you. The only thing they see in you is their few monthly bucks if you are in their downline. And at a certain point I saw myself treating others that way.....for what? for a few monthly bucks....
That was the worst experience.

Then came the PONZIs. I'm not sure if you guys are familiar with the whole "industry" of HYIPS and autosurfs. These are program that pay unrealistic ROIs like 144% in 12 days, completely pure PONZIs. The modes of the forums make agreements with the programs admins behind investors backs, push their programs by lies, allow them to have multiple users on forums if they pay them enough, fake registration company documents, sell hacked accounts of payments processors which are similar to PayPal, etc. Just a dirty nasty place to be. I have made also there a few thousands bucks cause I spent time checking out what is going on there....but heck! I want to build something real I can live from in the future without all this crap and illegal stuff. Just before I think 2 months and something I understood what the word "forex" is all about, and I love all the concepts of it. It is diffenitly something that worth the time of learning deeply and building experience over time....even if you don't make a living from it.

That is why I am glad to be here.

Ben
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Old Aug 23, 2009 12:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
benji533,
i mean some fake/Ponzi schemes pose as/call themselves MLMs..
yes, i am aware of HYIPs etc but i have not delved into them like u & i think ghous has..


hey, glad u are here too.
it's like im seeing myself/my twin but doing this FX thing 3-5yrs much earlier (than i actually did).
people like u/us are very few (human population wise).... we take ''something'' serious early on in our life..
I was "introduced" to businesses like MLM in my late teens, forex only in my early 20's... u are very lucky that u are...
Thank you supreme for this post. I appreciate it
And yea, ghous knows what I am talking about It is encouraging too see where he got to. Great job ghous!

Ben
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Old Aug 23, 2009 3:56pm
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Default USDCHF daily

Hey folks,

I was just scanning my charts and found this pair interesting.
Basically I would like to play a breakout of this consolidation area, but considering this strong divergence and the not very clear trend, I will skip it.

This can be a classic James16 trade off edges of a consolidation box, if we will get a nice PA setup.

Basically I want to see a false break down, then most likely a nice BUOB or a pin bar will confirm going long. I have this strong divergence supporting me.
Take note that this kind of trade needs to be managed very carefully simply because it is a sideways trade, AKA diving into traffic (where other intraday trades get killed ).
I think it will be better managed on the 4H chart though.

Ohh and look at this. I have plotted the fib retracements of the major swing, and look what I got - the 38.2 and 50.00 line up perfectly with my PPZs ( by the way, the lower gray shadow is a major historic PPZ, so combining that with our div and fib it can be a nice trade)....all I need now is a false breakout and a nice PA to confirm.

@ Buca - good to see you here mate welcome to the thread!

Ben
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Old Aug 23, 2009 4:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
Yes, if we get that confirming BUOB or pin bar it's a range setup. But, and I know about not being biased, still I wonder if we're not heading for a break lower. Guess maybe it's up to the gents at the SNB to get us that setup
Hey mac,

To be honest, I draw these lines a while ago hoping to see a nice breakout pattern down + pullback. But now when I saw this divergence I got an other direction of thinking. It still can be a breakout trade, but I will take it only if a super very clear breakout, pullback and PA will occur. That divergence can be ignored in a trending market, but when I look at the beg picture here, it is sill quite a ranging market.

By the way, I do not think that bias is a bad thing. I will tell you that...I even draw my predictions on most of my charts as an exercise. It is nice to see if you can predict the right moves, and learn from it...I'm learning all the time...try it

PS - I can predict that if a breakout will form, it will stall at that blue line. Why? major round number We shall see.

So this is another way I consider playing it:
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Old Aug 23, 2009 5:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
I think I was a bit fuzzy in the last post. What i meant was that it's up to the SNB to talk price back above 1.06, giving us that BUOB or pin bar.

I agree with you that a break of 1.06 should be followed by a confirming retest, which we could then possibly short off of.

The 1.05 level is important, but I actually have my line at 1.06. Usually it's the round numbers, but in this case I thought 1.06 was a better fit.
Anyhow I doubt I'll trade a break as I'm not comfortable with those yet. So I'm hoping for a bounce if anything.
Ohh got you about the SNB (:

The 1.06 is my current PPZ where my orange line is placed. These round numbers do not always line up perfectly with the major PPZs, but because I am looking for a pullback to form, that is the most reasonable place IMO, and from there end the pullback at the 1.06 level.

By the way, pullbacks are easy. The general Idea is to spot a trending market. Then you want to see a "pause" in the trend, which is actually a mini choppy area which you can collect and line up between two lines. This is the stage when the market is gaining more power in order to continue the trend. Many traders play breakouts by simply placing stop orders above and below the choppy area. These patterns work because of the order flow which is build around this area.
But we want to wait for a pullback to our old PPZ that broke, and on it to find a clean fresh PA setup giving us another chance to ride.

The lines do not have to be horizontal only. You can use trendlines, but here is a catch. The direction of the trendline must be against the price. That means that if you have a downtrend, the support line must be pointing up.
Why? Because if it is pointing down, there isn't really a breakout of the trend - the move is a bit more sharper, that's all.


Why wait for a pullback...basically to avoid false breakouts. For example, if it breaks a bit up, it will probably hit SL orders of sellers which will give a little push up to all the heavy buy orders that is built there and shoot up. That is one way to play it.
The logic behind waiting for a pullback and then enter the trade, is basically to avoid false breakouts, that can be for example the price that hit some SL orders, but there are no any fresh buyers which to continue with the momentum - so there is no momentum - price reverses and that is a false breakout.
After the pullback, the old sellers which their SL was hit will be out, and if fresh buyers come in, you have a good chance to ride it far. That is a much more safer way to play it...and the important thing, is of course the PA confirmation. That is how you combine breakouts with the james16 material

Hey, hope you got me. It is a bit hard to explain this way. Tell me if I can clarify.
Maybe Mike can add or correct me here. This is his development

Ben

PS - PRACTICE ON DEMO FIRST (otherwise people here will kill you ...no, seriously).
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Old Aug 23, 2009 5:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
Yeah, I know all that stuff It's just that I'm focusing on reversals and I'll add breaks to the arsenal later.

Your explanation was excellent btw
Cool

Thanks squeezy. Just read all Mike and Jim posts, it's only them.
Here is one I was monitoring last week, but didn't take. It isn't the best example...I hoped it will squeeze a bit more.

Ben
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Old Aug 24, 2009 12:04pm
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Hi Cyrus,

I am glad to see a post on this one, cause I was looking at it as well.

Eventually I didn't take it, most of the reasons you and mike already gave:

1. Relatively small bar next to a sharp move, to quote mike "it's like trying to catch a falling knife", because except from the PPZ at that area, I didn't find any other supporting confluence factors.
2. Late in Friday.

3. Here is what I would like to add to the already given reasons: No supproting round number.
Here is a post I wrote last week about: round numbers.
After reading a bit info about this subject, and backtesting my charts for a while on weekend, I got to the conclusion it may be a good idea try taking trades on the lower TFs (1H-4H, I do not trade lower than that), only off round numbers. The bar of the lower time frames just do not contain data like daily and weekly bars. You can not count on 1H PA bar like on a daily PA bar, that's my opinion at least. That is simply because you are effected by many "noise" factors. Many times you can see very nice shaped pin bars at the 1H and 4H but they do not work. IMO it is because there is nothing that really supports them, and alone they are never strong enough sign, especially at lower TFs where the data is very small.
For example a 1H pin bar can be created by the price hitting many SL or TP orders, but that doesn't mean fresh sellers or buyers are coming in to support the move. On the other hand, on daily you will never see a pin that was created from that, cause the data is much larger.

Now, why round numbers? Many intraday traders place their orders around these areas, and that is why momentum and order flow is built there. If you trade a 1H PA setup off them, you have something supporting you. This is my theory after thinking, but not necessary true. I am keeping checking this, and I am considering making a log of these on demo to see what will be the results.

Another thing...I would like to ask here the seniors or whoever know the answer - does bigger round numbers mean bigger order flow? I guess yes. but it will be nice to get a confirmation.

Sorry for the ramble lol, but wanted to explain the idea deeper and open it do discussion. Bottom line is, that pin bar was on a lower TF and not off a round number. That alone avoided me to take the trade + the other factors.

Hope it helps the think process?


Good luck!

Ben
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Old Aug 24, 2009 2:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Cool

Thanks squeezy. Just read all Mike and Jim posts, it's only them.
Here is one I was monitoring last week, but didn't take. It isn't the best example...I hoped it will squeeze a bit more.

Ben
Shame on me for not taking this trade (I do not really regret I followed my rules...never a bad thing to do..I guess..).
Maybe I will get another chance...only if a A++ bar will form, as I like.

This time I will get in because:

- looks like the trend is turning: higher lows and higher highs.
- Instead of diving into a round number, like the previous setup, this time I will be bouncing off a round number.
- The horizontal line is the current breakout pattern after modifying the lines.
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Old Aug 24, 2009 2:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Wondering if any of you took this. I did and and it is working out nice sitting at about 1:1 already. The way I looked at it was 1.75 was a huge huge level if you zoomed out. the overall trend was down. It broke past 1.75 pulled back and pinned (kind of small) below that level. The pin was at 61.8 Fib. Once again what I think helpe dthis trade was trading toward the least point of resistance and 1.75 was HEAVY! Let's see how it plays out.

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Hi dmc,

Nice trade, congratz

With the strong trend, and off a round number, I think it is a good location.

Didn't noticed it, but still even if I would saw it, I wouldn't take it because the length of the PB' nose is relatively very small. Just my opinion of course.

Glad you made some pips

Ben
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  #41936  
Old Aug 24, 2009 2:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
I like breakouts, but unlike Mike and others, I only like the horizontal lines for a breakout. I cannot always decide where a TL should go, and it makes me uncomfortable. Trend line break guys are the smart guys around here...

In the case of this pair, Lets hope for a pullback and some solid PA to the 8700 in the next few days. But it would not be a surprise at all if price right back into the horizontal channel and stayed there for while ... Comfy and warm in there....
Yea, I hope for a pullback and then any clear PA setup.
In this case, I prefer a bullish PA, but I will also take a bearish if it will be clear.
It can be traded to both sides IMO.
One can be a breakout trade, which I will give space and try to carry as far as I can, and one can be a range-Chanel trade at extreme high as we like
For me any clear PA off a round number at low TFs will be good

By the way, these lines are not a big deal, really. First thing to do is to spot a trending pair, once you have this, try to identify if it is in a pause right now, making it's way sideways, and just trap it between lines.

I personally like when the lines are pointing against price (for example, if we are trending up, the resistance trend line should be with it's angle pointing down, otherwise it isn't really a breakout lol).
Secondly, I prefer to see at least three points which connect the line, the more - the better.

You can trade also only horizontals, but IMO you will miss many good trades that way. I sure you can draw these trend lines SP

Ben
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Old Aug 24, 2009 2:52pm
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By the way, I like these breakout trades because they have a large R:R ratio. I love jim's style, but the only thing that bothers me, is that he takes very short trades. He can allow himself to do so because he has a large account I guess..unfortunately I do not have

Be aware that the win rate of these patterns are low. That means that if you want to make profit from them in the long term, it is critical to be able to hold them as far as you can.

I am wondering if there is any style that has a large win rate, and a large R:R ratio as well?...

Ben

Edit: Mike, do you care to share your average win rate and R:R of this setup only? please..?
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  #41941  
Old Aug 24, 2009 3:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
hmmmm maybe that's the one.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=168161

i start my week with this one.
Thanks nasir, I will check it out

Ben
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Old Aug 24, 2009 3:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
breakouts tend to range in the lower 60% range and a bit under 2r
wow...sounds good to me.
Especially if you can get once in a few months a very long trade like you have showed in one of your guest area videos (introduction to pin bars)

Ben
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Old Aug 24, 2009 10:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
The pullback to the previous support is almost done.
Lets see if I can get any bearish PA confirmation on that line

I do not have any EMAs or fibs that line up with that orange line...however I have confidence in that level to be acting now as resistance, cause it was a strong support area for a long time. See all those bar lows and then the hard breakout.
Price is also trending down...making lower lows...we have the pull back...I think all those factors plus hidden divergence plus PA confirmation (if will be any) is enough for me to take it.
If...

...
Didn't have any trades today...boring charts, so I went out most of the day.
Here is an update to this breakout trade, which I am carrying from last week.

This is a clear pattern IMO, broke that heavy support area, pulled back and formed a pin bar. Basically that isn't a beauty pin, and I wouldn't play it alone....but the location here was more important for me. I believe I have placed my stop far enough into the traffic. That old heavy support will do it's resistance work now, IMO. So I have confidence in this trade. I have also the 365ema, divergence and fibs supporting me here.

Basically I am looking to cry this trade until I hit the pink line, which is my target. Didn't move my stop yet...I am waiting for price to break the last low so I will have something to relay on before I cut some of it's space to move.
My plan is to trail my stops based on PPZs, round numbers and PA bars on the way. I will start moving my stop right when the last low will break.

Well I have closed last week with my second loosing trade. the daily GBPNZD pin bar...but managed to cut it almost to a half. I still think it was a good setup...but I have learned that sometimes trading against the trend can be a killer no matter about other factors. In addition...I do not really like that choppy pair...it moves maybe a few pips a week...lol.
Anyway that lose isn't a big deal for me, moving on.

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 2:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Your charts are improving by the day Ben,

So much so...I have to scroll back to the beginning of the post every time I see your chart/s...they strongly remind me of Mike's,

Nice, Clean and dirt simple stuff every time you come up with one.

This is how we do it folks!

g
Hey thanks for the comment bro!

By the way, I am saving a log of all my trades.
As long as I have a plan, reasons, knowledge of support, resistance and price action, I am never wrong.

I save a log of all my trades in separate folders, with my thought process, conditions, pictures size of bar, etc.....and at the end of every trade I go and write my results plus comments and what I have learned.

That trade is on my demo, so it's ok whatever will be the result, I'll learn from it.

My plan is to save enough money so when I'm ready, I will be able to be picky with my trades.

Most of my money is stuck in HYIPs....I was poor for a long time now (LOL) but last week I got a payment of one of my longer term investments....2,500$..to play with ...unfortunately most of my money is still stuck...hope to get all my other payments in the following month of September.

Ben
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  #42058  
Old Aug 25, 2009 3:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
I'm not a 'senior' by any means, but my answer to this would be a qualified 'generally yes'.

Big orders get clustered around xx00/xx50 numbers for ease of communication (whether this is as relevant as it once was is a matter of debate), and because the types of people putting in an order like this often dont need it to the nearest pip. They just wanna hedge an exposure, and so they pick a round number at an acceptable level. On top of that, you will get a clustering of trader orders, because big numbers make big dumb obvious profit targets.

Remember,...
wow Joel I appreciate your comment.
That is quite interesting. I always thought it may have something with the human natural psychology of being simple, round..or absolute? I mean. every time when we think about something in our daily life, we use round numbers to describe it (like saying the time...we round the minutes to hours or half an hours).

You have pointed an impotent thing in your post..about the fact that most traders do not understand that there is an order flow at both sides. That is right. IMO that is the biggest problem of breakout traders, or any trader that doesn't have the knowledge of price action. If we can read the bars, we can understand what is currently going on in the market.

I am trying to make a point of using our price action knowledge in order to benefit from the order flow on both sides of round numbers. That is actually my (probably I am not the first to think about it f course though), that by price action off those areas, we can see which side had more orders...or SL, TP, whatever.

The thing I want to see happening in a round number area is a choppy price around it (you have said that it happens too). Why? because then I know that all the orders in it's area were triggered, and now it's a question of where will the order flow will push price. I can use price action to identify it.
For example, if I get a BEOB off a round number, I know the push will most likely be down. BUT, it will be important for me to see that BEOB goes as high as it can before retraces - simply to be sure it tested the high and was rejected. The second thing I want to see it the close below the round number - that is important to me, because I want to be sure it wasn't rejected there to.

Sorry for the ramble You have really helped me with this post by understanding the logic behind it. Now I'll take it to the next level by using bigger round numbers. I will get a bigger order flow, plus it will avoid me from over trading.


Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 3:56pm
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[quote]
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
For me, it has always been getting into a PA setup on a lower timeframe. If I see price on the daily go right up to a PPZ, get rejected and start coming down, I'll drop to the 4H and see if a pin is forming there (often, you miss the peak). And sometimes even down to the 1H..

As a result, you can get into a 'daily' setup before it has completely formed, and get a killer r:R. Just pick the location.
It can be a good idea. The thing is that I try to keep my charts simple. That also means not mixing between time frames. I see every time...
That can be a good idea. I remember I have a PDF on this. I will consider practicing it

Quote:
On a pure single-timeframe-with-proper-confirmed-PA setup, looking at it logically I think inside bars should usually give you the best r:R, as they should have the lowest relative risk...assuming you are entering based on a break of the inside candle, with a stop based on the outside candle. Otherwise, most setups should offer the same risk, on average - a full bar.

Although, again, it really is all about location.
Yea..I also see the big advantage of IBs referring to the R:R issue. That can be another good option. But personally I have decided to take it step by step. I have first traded only pin bars until I got a very big confidence in them. Now I am demoing outside bars. When I will get o IBs, I will remember this advice

Quote:
(the other really huge r:R I get is with rac setups, but I am completely rubbish at those right now)
Who is rac? is there any thread or something I can get the info of how he trades?

Thanks again mate

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 4:18pm
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Large Win Rate + Large R:R ?
You know, I have been thinking about this.

I've noticed that when the daily trend and 4hour trend are BOTH in the same direction + 4hr Pins in the same direction w a heap of confluences there can be pretty sweet risk/reward.

Noticed that when there're PBs that are relatively large (the pitbulls), price often retraces 50% or to the nearest S/R before price takes off.
Either way, if you place limit orders on PBs @ pullbacks in the direction of the 4hour & daily trend. I think tt's a high win- high R:R type of setup....
Hi Cyrus,

Thanks for your comment.

First, for the idea of combining daily and 4H trends.
I have replied to Joel about this, but I want to sharp it a bit.

Mainly I do not like to combine time frames because I like everything simple, plus I do not think it is a wrong thing to do.
But I do understand the concept behind your idea - simply to catch a big trend and ride it all the way while entering at a small 4H bar, which means a much smaller pip stop size. I like this idea. I think that it is the target and wise of every trader...and to be honest, that is a great idea which I was trying to achieve in another way. When I look at my 4H chart, MOST of the time I can spot the main trend also.
That is one of my reasons for trading only with the trend, especially at lower time frames.
If I take an intraday trade off a round number, I will do it only with the trend, or at a clear reserval.

That makes me think. I thought I might always set targets on these lower time frames and not try to carry the trade by trailing stops...but now when I think about it...it can be a good idea trying to trail stops and catch larger trends with a small pip stop.

For entering on the retrace of the pin....as I have replied to Joel, I will consider that.

Thank you Cyrus,

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 4:21pm
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[quote=TiaForex;2989978]
Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post

Raczekfx is a very very accomplished trader who posts in this thread. Look at his post history.

He doesn't spell it out but there's a lot of information in his charts and posts.
Thanks Aron, I'll sure check his post history ( I have a list now..lol)

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 4:50pm
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Here is a nice simple setup.

Double bottom, divergence, Pin bar.

Didn't take it because: not off big round number, against the trend and the pin is a puddle (although I like it because it just rejected a smaller round number, and closed above it. That is what I think can be a good setup).

It is taking off nicely..Great to see though that it went to where it should.

If someone took it, I think it is a good idea moving stop to BE or taking full profit mow

EDIT: It has SPACE!! like mike says

Second EDIT: a nice 1H BEOB which is also a pin off a major round number and a PPZ, with strong divergence supporting took off nicely. How do I miss those?
I think I need to start a log of trades I didn't take lol.
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Old Aug 25, 2009 5:01pm
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Quote:
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Guys (and girls)
Can i just clarify as to whether the 365 and 150 are simple, or ema?
On page 1 jim quotes the 365 as well as a couple of other ma's as being simple, yet somebody a few pages back mentioned a 365 ema.
So far i've had them as simple, and they work very well as an additional confluence!
Thanks.
It is EMA.

Try plotting the 365EMA and 150EMA on your charts....then scroll back and see how they act nicely as support and resistance

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 6:23pm
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Hey guys, sorry for all my posts lol....but I must post this for example.
I was out most of the day today...so missed many goodies.

Look at the yen pair. This is a good round number example. Not large R:R, but I would still take it.

What do you think?

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 6:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Ben,

I took the eur/jpy on the 4hr to taht first zone. I took the 15min BEOB of the gbp/jpy, but used the 30min and 1hr as it developed with the same concepts in mind as well


Mike


I am glad you think it is good as well!...and that you made some pips
I think that maybe this kind of style won't have any giant R:R, but together the trades can provide good enough results.

The 15min BEOB is great, now I see it....that even giving a better ratio.

Do you use the 15min to spot trades? or only to find better entries and manage trades?
I personally never go lower than 1H if I do not see any good setup....firstly because I want to build my way down, if at all...and secondly because it can lead to over trading.

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 7:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy73 View Post
Hi all

I'm looking at this small pin on nzd usd and wondering whether i should place an order to sell around the 0.6820 level.

Price is at a major resistance level 0.6900 and there's some nice divergence but overall trend is up and the pin is rather small, maybe i'll put an order in but only use less than half my normal stake on this trade.
Hi Billy,

The seniors may have a better take on this, but without checking anything on my chart, only seeing your chart, I can say that personally I try to prevent taking pins that are relatively small to all the other bars in the area, especially when you are trading against the trend (very strong trend here!). You can't get a clear understanding of what price is doing only based on a short nose.
Try to find confluence of resistance factors which may support your decision.

Just my opinion of course.

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 7:42pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Cool

Thanks squeezy. Just read all Mike and Jim posts, it's only them.
Here is one I was monitoring last week, but didn't take. It isn't the best example...I hoped it will squeeze a bit more.

Ben
SP - where are you? remember this one?

Any chance you got the entry at the second red arrow?

It's fantastic watching a trade going exactly how it should.

I really like this stuff

Ben
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Old Aug 25, 2009 11:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
He's nobody..., but I remember one thing about him...

He'll short when you long, and will long when you short, especially yen crosses...
LOL

That means...I'm too bad, or you are too good...or..

Nice to meet you rac

Ben
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Old Aug 26, 2009 11:53am
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Default Some trades...

It was a busy trading day for my...after missing yesterday trades...

I had 4 intraday trades...4 are winners and another two open on daily.
Not king of R:R, but happy.

I think I am not as picky as I should ...but it works
Price Action !!! Thanks to this thread! It should be removed from the commercial section by all means!

Hope everyone is doing well...and having a great evening (at least here) I'm off to bed

Ben
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  #42153  
Old Aug 26, 2009 12:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krue View Post
is this a correct setup?
Sorry if I have missed something in the last few pages...based on what did you enter this trade?

Ben
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  #42157  
Old Aug 26, 2009 12:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Buovb at swing low... and lift off to another ppz
.
Hi rac,

That is a pretty cool trade.
Just a question..based on what did you enter? I can see that your entry is before the break of the pin...right?

And by the way, look how it stopped exactly on a round number

Thanks,

Ben
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  #42290  
Old Aug 27, 2009 12:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
an IB break to the long side. I don't pay attention to round numbers.
PPZs is all that matters.
That is probably a part of your method or some thing I guess.

But just see where your trade stalled..major round number...on the pip..and also before:

By the way, most of the time these numbers create the PPZs...I guess?

Ben
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  #42296  
Old Aug 27, 2009 2:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Retrace to touch a PPZ and big round number, in the direction of the daily and short term trends?

Sounds like a homerun to me. Nice trade

I agree 100% Joel. I have till now 18 winners and 2 loosers from these trades!!! It works!
This is a trade I have missed cause I wasn't around...but it was on my list and I would being taking it without a doubt if I was around.

It is a clear breakout pattern. Price tested 153.5 four times, broke through, pulled back and produced a BEOB. I don't see any major round number in the area, but I do not use them on breakout trades.

This is a great trade, and has more room to move before it turns...IMO

It happens all the time, and it works!



By the way, I have decided to let this trade from yesterday a bit more room to move I am amazed, it doesn't stop working! Even though it isn't a clear pattern like the one above.

Here is a current pic, trading is art:



Last edited by benji533, Aug 27, 2009 10:59am
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  #42301  
Old Aug 27, 2009 3:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt View Post
you make it look so easy benji. I always just find someway to over analyse and muddle myself up
IT IS DEFINITELY ONE OF THE EASIEST THINGS TO DO.

Hey supermatt, it is all in your head!

I am telling you, I did a little research, read smart guys posts, built my method (or their method, lol), and apply it. It is really simple.
Trading is not a complicated thing at all. I really enjoy it.
I do not understand why it is so difficult to so many.

I am doing a very simple thing. Believe me I am the last one to be a genius here..be sure about that.

IMO, the trader is the only one that can disturb himself making killings in this market. I am proving it to myself. When I try to make too much complicated decisions I see charts like a big one mess that can't be figured out.
If you have a method that works, I will tell you to stop trading, and focus a few weeks only on trading psychology. That is a huge subject, and as I have said before, making 50% of you as a trader, if not more.
If you think that trading is complicated, it is because of your own psychology. Trading skills are the opposite of what we learn in the daily lifestyle.

My good, I have read psychology books and learned it way before I even knew what a bar chart looks like (kidding...but seriously, before I learned to trade).

I am maybe the less experienced trader here...2 months...maybe a few weeks more...but I know I see it as it needs to be.


supermatt, shoot me a PM with you email address, I will send you a few good things.

Hope it will help you. it made all the difference for me

Ben
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Old Aug 27, 2009 3:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Hey Benji. I was thinking about the 1 hour actually. Been studying the posts on 1 hr abit here. I saw the BEOB rejecting 154.00 after several tests of 153.50 (a ppz).

Thought that would hv been a good place to enter if I was actually looking @ the 1 hour to enter. =)

Thanks for the confirmation
You are welcome

I trade this pattern a lot. It works.
Mike is the master of it though

Basically, after I have my pattern drawn, it is all a matter of patience. I wait for a breakout, pullback to the trend line, and then a PA confirmation on the line.
Ummm....Usually I try to get a better entry on even a lower TF. That way my R:R will be better, and also sometimes it is the only place I find PA.

Ben
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Old Aug 27, 2009 4:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
good lord. 16 and talking about not being picky enough with his trades.

your tripping me out man.

who was the other young gun the other day that said he was bens age or close to it?

ben you dont mind me having a little fun with your age do you?

no? good i knew you wouldnt mind.

sweet dreams ben and dont let the bed bugs bite. oh and check that night light buddy.

sorry my friend i just couldnt resist.

no one is allowed to jack with ben but me.

im officially announcing that im looking out for our junior member.

who was that...

HAHAHA I went to bed huging my barney and spongebob toys yesterday

I know you are jealous

Ben
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  #42307  
Old Aug 27, 2009 4:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Maybe we can derive something for this...

Maybe it's the kids that can trade better than adults, nice clean minds, free from excessive "ifs" and "buts" and "so whats" and "what ifs"...

The simplicity of trading is so obvious...it in fact is what gets a lot...a lot of wannabe traders...

Remember Jim's son, and each and every outside bar that he took on Eur/Gbp this year...I sure could have never done that...I mean I am not talking from my death bed but I am getting old...old enough to wave teenage life good bye and honestly the way I saw...
You are old? You must be kidding me. You and me not THAT different. Our minds as well.

Maybe the day when little kids will work instead of the parents in house is not that far

But yes, your words make sense man.

Ben
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  #42309  
Old Aug 27, 2009 5:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
You are welcome

I trade this pattern a lot. It works.
Mike is the master of it though

Basically, after I have my pattern drawn, it is all a matter of patience. I wait for a breakout, pullback to the trend line, and then a PA confirmation on the line.
Ummm....Usually I try to get a better entry on even a lower TF. That way my R:R will be better, and also sometimes it is the only place I find PA.

Ben
Here is another great example. I am still flowing this. I already made a few posts about this trade...IT WORTH IT.

Look at my post from last week. There was a BUOB, but I didn't take it.

I have plotted arrows at different availed (according to me...although I wouldn't take the bar off the 150EMA, I know james and many others in this thread to that) entries. Look how simple and clean this chart is.

The thing that I want to point is that LARGE BUOB off a major round number - that bar started this incredible trade. I see many traders ignore them, that is 100% if it works for them but I like using them.

If someone can manage entering at the retrace of of one of these bars, it can be a real killing.

Ben

Edit: on the third arrow, it's a BUOB, not BEOB - my mistake.

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Old Aug 27, 2009 6:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
The old me would have taken this one. Pinbar! Off support!

The new me sees a bunch of resistance 10pips above, choppiness, a small pin following a big bearish bar, selling pressure from two big pinbars in the last week, and going against the daily trend.

Attachment 296539

Attachment 296540

I'll add against the trend, not a big bar relativity to other recent bars, and nothing very special supporting you except of divergence which is a killer in trending markets

Congrats on the nice trade you had on the earlier post

Ben
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Old Aug 27, 2009 9:16am
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Default Bad winners

Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
The old me would have taken this one. Pinbar! Off support!

The new me sees a bunch of resistance 10pips above, choppiness, a small pin following a big bearish bar, selling pressure from two big pinbars in the last week, and going against the daily trend.

Attachment 296539

Attachment 296540
Hey Joel,

Just thought to use your post in order to mention something.

A bad winner: is a so-so setup that doesn't fit your rules, but you still take, and it becomes a great winner. That is one of the most dangerous things IMO, because it can mess your mind up and lead you to take this kind of bad setup again....only that this time, you get a loss and do not understand why....no wonder why people think trading is complicated.
They keep taking these setups until they blow away their accounts.

That is more like gambling, not trading. We have the ability and knowledge of how to read price. Why do we need to gamble?
I'll quote James and say "treat this as a business". This is your business! If you do not treat it as a business, you are wasting your time, do not trade at all.


Many times these so-so setups WILL WORK. That can be a killer factor.
Many traders get upset and feel like they have missed a great opportunity when the setups they have skipped, eventually work.

Personally, when I see a setup that I didn't take becoming a winner, I am happy, cause I know that the method and logic behind it still works.
Just my two cents...

Ben
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Old Aug 27, 2009 9:57am
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Default round numbers...again...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eclipse View Post
Yes, most of the time, but not always.
Take the USDCAD as example. Look at 1.03 level. It's not a big round number, but look at how many times it acted as resistance. Then it became support and made the huge uptrend start.
In the USDJPY you can see this with more evidence. Look at the very nice pin bar which appeared in late april, it came off the 96 level, which acted as a very good PPZ in the past.
Considering this 96 PPZ, I wouldn't have taken any kind of fantastic pin bar off the 95 level, even if it is a major round number.

Just my 0.2c

I was back testing and checking all this "round numbers" topic lately, and here is my take on the connection between round numbers and PPZs:

I have noticed that many treat charts like robots, meaning that they see a PPZ and automatically think that price will stall there. Nothing bad with it, and it is very true.
But I don't want to look at it like this. We must remember that there isn't really a think "we trade against or with the market". What is the "market"? That is humans like me and you that move it. Many tend to forget it.

How trends and PPzs are created? the answer is order flow of humans.
Now...why PPZs line up with round numbers, simply because it is nature of humans to use round numbers, so you will often notice the order flow around round numbers.

When price moves and then stalls at a PPZ...why is that happening? Magic? no way. It happens because of the order flow in that area.

Now it is true that many times there are certain areas that get tested and rejected many times , and by that, gain interest and order flow around them even tough they aren't round numbers, and please don't get me wrong - there is nothing right or wrong here.
A smart guy told me today by PM that there are ton of different way to trade, none of them are right or wrong. It all depends on what works for you personally.
If someone ignores round numbers and it works for him , that's ok.

My take of PPZs is using them in order to manage my trades, or avoid taking trades in the first place. I rarely use them as a pure location for my entries.
That is working for me.

Now...I will tell you another thing that I have noticed. These PPZs which aren't on round levels are most of the time very weak or temporary levels. Why? because after they break several of times, the interest of HUMAN traders is lower.

Why round numbers will remained working and acting as PPZs? Simply because that is what humans use. Do you say 13:31 o'clock, or 13:30 o'clock? it is the same, and Joel made another great post about how these numbers work.
As lon as the nature of humans won't change, these round numbers will remain working without a doubt.
That is how I can take an advantage of understanding the logic, and the fact that there isn't any "market" but humans that move it. If you can understand the mind of humans, or the mind of who you trade with, you can "win" him, or at least use it for your own advantage.

Buddy, sorry for the ran...and thank you for your post!
Really, I think I just used your post to post my thought lol, sorry mate.

Take care,

Ben
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Old Aug 27, 2009 10:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eclipse View Post
Yours are good thoughts and I seriously agree with them, BUT there's another point.
You miss the base principle of levels tested in the past (supports and resistances or ppz if you prefer) which not always match with big round numbers (don't forget that 1.03, 96 etc. are still round numbers, and they are very strong, see charts above).
If they do it's ok, easier life, but if they don't you have to pay attention, because you could incurr in a loss (see USDJPY example in my post above).

Again, my 0.2c
Have a nice day.

Yea, that's right.
No one is wrong, just different styles.
I didn't not say that I do not pay attention to them. To quote myself, I have said that most of the time I do not base my entries only on pure PPZ levels. I said I do pay attention to them when I manage my trades, so basically I can't take a loss by not trading off them, right?

Just to clarify, when I say round numbers, I pay most attention to them on lower time frames. Lets say 4H and lower, and I have a reason for that.
The lower time frame bars contain much less data than the daily and weekly bars. They can be many different reasons for a 1H bar to close as a pin bar, but it won't have the same meaning of a daily pin bar. That is because the lower time frame bars are much more effected by the marked "noise", like news, SL, TP orders, etc. You need some thing to support these bars.
On daily and weekly I am not so concerned about these numbers...also not on breakout trades. That is simply because in these situations I have other factors that support my trade.

Have a nice day as well

Ben
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Old Aug 27, 2009 11:39am
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Just closed this trade...eventually.

I am posting it as an example of how I do use PPZs.

By the way, it isn't the perfect breakout pattern at all...must be managed tight if at all.

On the bottom line, all I do is being extra picky on lower time frames by looking for confluence of round numbers with the PPZs...that's all. That doesn't mean I ignore regular PPZs.

Ben

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Old Aug 27, 2009 4:43pm
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I am a bit less concerned about traffic in these kind of trades as a result of my back-testing...but sill needed to be managed tightly.

Still demoing them..but cool to see they work (fell like a rock after the trouble area).

Ben

PS - what is this pair meaning anyway?! I don't care as long as it works
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Old Aug 27, 2009 4:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
GJ Breakout - that is my kind of Breakout. Nice Flat side. OB to bust out. Run Forrest, Run....

Ima try them slanty lines too... I do trade off them, adding a break might not be to difficult...
Hi SP,

I was thinking about it....I think horizontal breakout have more potential of a longer term move.

Breakouts work because of the orderflow that is build around these areas, but maybe it also works so good becuse basically after the break, there is no trafic in the way? That can be true for horizontal breakouts.

On the other hand, trending breakouts will always have kinda traffic in the way - horizontal traffic.

I have never thought about it before...I will find time to back test my charts on this and see if it really works better on horizontal patterns.

Thank you buddy, you are making me think

Ben
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Old Aug 27, 2009 5:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxvision View Post
Well done Ben.

Holding the short from 1.1004 still myself. I plan to wait and see if the PPZ and 50% level around 1.0835-40 area will hold support. Would like to see the market continue to drop towards 1.0770 and hit the rising TL. I have a relatively high probability signal that EURJPY and GBPUSD can break to the upside tomorrow and that would support a bearish USDCAD, but we'll see how things go tomorrow... GBPJPY and USDJPY still hanging heavy.
Thanks fxvision. Usually when I take intraday trades I set targets and not plan to hold trades...unless they really have a good potential for a long run.
But that dosen't mean I manage them all the way to the target
By the way, I didn't find any 1.1004 on this pair. This is a weird pair called USDHRK...don't even know what it means. Maybe you are referring to an other pair?

Ben
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Old Aug 28, 2009 6:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryan View Post
First stop 1.2320
I was short on this one from last week. It got me out now at BE

Anyway, it's now another pair I do not like. It chops like crazy!
AUDNZD, GBPNZD, AUDCAD are crazy choppers...better for range trades (box consolidation trades) IMO.

Ben
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Old Aug 28, 2009 11:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hey benji i can see you lurking whats up buddy.

Does that seem good.
LOL not lurking just thinking about a post I need to make.

Trading the 1H eh?

Based on what have you entered short? I was more in the direction of a breakout long here...but things didn't line up as I wanted. You will see what I mean latter when I will be able to focus on a writing a post...I will remember this chart

Just be careful man, you have ton of support below you. On my feed that BEOB is bearly a BEOB. The main thing that I don't like about this trade, is that you are trading against a very very sharp move, with a PA bar which isn't a giant relativity to recent bars. It's like trying to catch a falling knife if you understand what I say.

When you see a bar like that at swing high after a sharp move, you need to ask yourself if that really seems to be reflecting a reserval? what supports you? That bar is too small for me.


Good luck!

Ben

Edit:
Here, look at my last trade: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42386
The BEOB I took engulfs the two previous bars and it is very big if you compare it to them. You can clearly see that that bar tried to go higher but got rejected and closed as a large BEOB.
The main important thing thing in this trade, for me, is that major round number. I don't want to argue, but I think for me it will be crazy ignoring them. The close is below the round number.
Now I have more supporting factors like nice divergence, swing high, and very important - the move up is not sharp. I can see that the bulls are loosing strength.


That is how I tarde these lower time frames. Hope it helps.

Ben
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Old Aug 28, 2009 12:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Thanks Benji,

I got you thinking(posting the 1h chart) that i entered here cause entirely of that 1H bar.

It starts with that PPZ in 4H. Look how price is struggling to break it. then look at weekly and see there is 61.8%. Price breached it but did not managed to close above it in weekly take a closer at MACD also....
Hey bro. I understand your thought process. But I personally see things a bit different. If I trade the 1H, I do not even go back to see the 4H, sure not the weekly. That weekly bar on the weekly fib, is a whole trend on the 1H chart, so it is not relevant to me so much.

Here are my charts and how I see the things happen. The first chart describes what I wanted to do, and the second one is why I wouldn't take your trade. By the way, I am a bit picky, so there will be many trades that I won't take but will be winners, so that doesn't mean that you have done something wrong, I am just giving you my opinion based on how I trade.

Hope it helps you.

Ohh and you are more than welcome for the books

Ben
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Old Aug 28, 2009 1:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Sorry for late response my internet connection got some problem.

That makes a whole lot of sense. Sound s like what i just did with GU.

Closed Half position and half is at BE in AudUSD.

We are thinking opposite but we both could make money from it.

You are saving me money on regular basis thats a nice habit LOL.
LOL

That is right. We can see different things, trade different and use different tools, but as long as we have a reason and theory behind every rule in our own method, using PA to confirm it - I believe it is possible to be profitable over time in this business with patience and discipline of course.

Keep it up mate

Ben
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Old Aug 28, 2009 2:10pm
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Default Breakout patterns...

ok I have received several PMs yesterday with questions about how do I draw my breakout patterns...after I posted the breakout patterns of the EURGBP and GBPJPY.

I thought maybe I'll just post here a few charts from my watch list.

Please take note that usually I play breakouts only with the direction of the trend. On messy and choppier markets with no clear trend, two directions are veiled for me...if at all (trending pairs work better).

The upper trend line needs to be pointing from horizontal and down with it's angel. The lower trend line just the opposite. For the line to be veiled for me, I need at least three kisses between the price ant the line.

Wait for a break, pullback and clear PA to confirm. If the PA bar lines up with a round number it just makes it better. Use it to protect you stop order.

I like when I have divergence supporting me. I usually trail my stops using the bars (PA), PPZs and round numbers. First priority is reducing risk, moving stop to BE. I don't get the greatest R:R every time, because I manage the trades very tightly - I do have a very high win rate of them though...so it pays of when you have a runner once in a while.

I rather an high win rate and a low R:R just because I feel good when I win or BE. I rather see a winner takes off without me instead of taking a full bar loss because I hoped to see a run. For example - the 4H EURGBP - completely fine with me that it took off without me.
I hate loosing after I know where are the trouble areas - exactly as buddy ghous said earlier.

After I have a free trade in space without traffic, I like trailing with Mike's two bar stop methods and the BAT - depending on how choppy is the pair.

I lock up profit as much as I can. I will give it space only if I believe it can have a long run.

Another thing I was asked is R:R - I never base my trades or even check what R:R I can get when I enter a trade. That is just not bothering me because I know that at the end it all just adds up together. I look at R:R only for fun after I exited. I just take what the market offers.
I know James told this many times - so I just follow the big man's lead!

Nothing here is right or wrong - just my style. So I hope it answers the questions I got.
IMO as long as we all use the knowledge of support and resistance plus PA as James teaches, nothing can be wrong or right - just check if it fits your personality.

Look at the EURUSD daily and GBPJPY - there are trend lines that are not yet established enough.
In the pic below, also two pairs that need to consolidate a bit more.

IMO, as more as the pair is choppy and consolidates tight in a certain area - more powerful will be the breakout. That is because the more times a certain area gets tested and rejected, it gains more interest of traders, and I bet you the order flow above it (if we go long) or below it (if we go short) is building itself massively along time. In addition, that will be more safer to play, because as James teaches PPZs - old resistance becomes new support, right? so if the resistance was very strong, I guess also the new support will be - that is how I apply knowledge of PPZs in this kind of trades...just in a different way.
If you have massive support and traffic underneath you - just use it in order to hide your stop.

Traffic is not a thing I worry to much in this pattern. I do not need my pin or other PA to stick above all the other bars and create space. But I do need it to be a pittbull bar, meaning I can read what the market is doing based on it. I need it to test the trend line on the pullback, reject it and close on the other side. That way I can be sure our PPZ is actually "working" and we didn't get a false breakout.

I think there are ton off different ways to apply this material, but only as long as you have a theory and a reason for it.

Any comment will be welcomed. I am still very new to forex, so I am always open to corrections that can make my trading better. I learn and improve everyday slowly.

Ohh and...THIS IS NOT MY OWN STYLE. IT BELONGS TO mbqb11. I JUST LIKE IT AND IT FITS MY PERSONALITY. Just do yourself a favor and read all of his posts!!

ok I really hope it helps anyone!!!
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Old Aug 28, 2009 2:19pm
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Default A few more examples

Here are a few more charts. Some of them are still building themselves like the GBPJPY and EURUSD for example...but it has the shape.
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Old Aug 28, 2009 2:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
a simple search would yield "HRK = Croatian Kuna"
so, Croatia can now qualify as 1 of your fave places
LOL, I have something like 50-60 forex pairs on my FXpro account. I know maybe the meaning of 10 pairs.

Not to talk about stock...I just found ton of stock charts their....what the hell is the meaning of McDonald's chart?! lol
Buying and selling hamburgers and ice-cream by charts?

LOL


Ben
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Old Aug 28, 2009 2:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Great posts.

If you are trading with FXpro i think you are trading with fairly big account cause they don't allow lots less then 10,000.

So do you enter the trades at once or you sum your trades in bits n peaces.

and by the way checkout AIG and do you see the same potential in Citigroup.
That is a demo account

I am not in a rush...that's for sure

Ben
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Old Aug 28, 2009 3:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Benji my man you're an inspiration. You've mastered Mike's breakout style and expressed it concisely and simply. This post will be quoted and referred to many times in the course of this thread.

There's a real lesson here to anybody new. Look how simple Benji keeps it. Ease simplicity, not forcing anything, and only working off trendlines that my blind grandmother could see.

The methods are simple. We are the ones that complicate them. Great work Benji, and a terrific way to end the week on the chart thread.
Thank you Aron
I'm glad you like the post. It is really simple. Thanks to Mike

Ben
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Old Aug 28, 2009 11:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Does Benji ever go to school?

If he does, does he drive his teachers batty?

Benji - you are quick on the uptake, young man. I remember being 16 - learning new stuff at teh speed of light and no distractions!

I hope August was profitable - both in R and Lessons!

Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i think "little" ben is having a real good laugh.

i think hes really an 85 year old having a blast with all of this.

fess up ben.

LOL

Here in Israel we have 2 months of vacation between grades, July and August (summer). At the middle of next week we go back to school...for the last year - and then to the army for three years

Till then my plan is to save money for a nice account

@ Jarroo - You really liked that post eh? thanks man

Ben


EDIT: Check out this question from one month ago: http://forums.babypips.com/free-fore...tml#post123310 lol
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Old Aug 29, 2009 8:10am
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Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
Take care Ben
RM
Thank-you

Ben
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Old Aug 29, 2009 2:03pm
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Default Check this out Jarroo (:

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I really liked it Ben.

Just for the simply fact that how quickly you understood what Jim is teaching here and on his videos. It really is that simply and Jim presents it in a no nonsense way that makes it very easy to understand. He's a very good teacher.

So I'm really not surprised that you understand it, its just that some of us (me included) takes a little longer to see how simply it really is.

So keep posting little brother , I'm sure you are seeing the benefits of posting and giving analysis on different setups. It will...
You like my analysis eh?

Ok check this out. I will share something I am working on. IMO anyone can trade pin bars and outside bars on their break without a problem. Like I have said earlier, I also like this business cause it is fun and challenging, I enjoy it. This is a bit more advanced stuff that I am not suggesting to trade live after you make your back testing on it. Hope won't confuse anyone.

During the back testing time I have spent to build my intraday method based on round numbers and order flow, I have noticed something interesting. This is still in the very first stage of back testing. Not sure it will even be better. Just thoughts for now - Please remember this during the time you reading this post.

I am thinking about using round numbers as points to enter trades as a pullback point of a PA bar that already occurred - in other words, play PA more aggressively on the retrace of it, with much smaller pip stop. I have thought about it basically because I know that there is order flow at these areas, and I know that the market moves in waves.

I know why and how round numbers work. I can use this knowledge in order to improve my trading results. I want to be able to catch a nice move with minimum pip stop. I know the nature of the market is to move in waves. I know that every seller needs a buyer. How do I use all this?

I will use the first chart below as an example of a trade I took yesterday. See that big BUOB off the big round number 1.7000 ? That BUOB means to me everything. I know that there are tons of orders around that level. When I see a big BUOB, I know that it is big because it had triggered all the tons of orders that were in that area of interest. I see how it tested the lower area, and I see how it shooed up and closed in a maximal way. I see how it engulfs the previous 3-4 bars. I know that the push will be up.

Because I know that the market moves in waves, I know that before it continues to shoot up, it will most likely go back first. Where? of cause...the round number. So what I have done is placed a buy limit order at the 1.7000 level (the orange mark on the chart below). Look what price did. It went exactly where I thought, right to the round number. Look how it tested the round number and shooted up (not on the pip...but still good enough). Where will be my stop? I see the bunch of bar lows below the round number, so I have placed my stop right below them - that will be 15 pip stop!

I have a LARGE BUOB that means to me a lot, but instead of playing it on the break and have a large and unnecessary pip stop, I can enjoy a 15 pip stop with a bit knowledge of support, resistance, round numbers and price action. Isn't that cool?
And see what price did - It shooted up like I have expected.

That move doesn't look big eh (one bar)? If I had exited at that minor PPZ (purple line on the chart), I would be making 3R with such a small move!!
I have entered that trade, but I decided to move my stop to BE and let it run. So yes, this time it didn't work and I have been stopped at BE. I manage my trades very tight until the BE point. Then I am ready to let my trades space if I think they have potential. So this time I had been stopped at BE, but can you imagine what would be my Reward if price would run and make another high?

Just to clarify. This is a bad setup in my book. I won't take it as a trade. I took it as part of my back testing, when I test also the bad setups. In order for this setup to be good, it needs to be with the trend, and have divergence or other supporting confluence factor - I m not surprised that this ended as a BE trade.

So yes, I will be stopped out at BE many times cause I can't let a winner become a looser, but some times it will work, and when it works, it pays off.

Now this is a very aggressive way to play these setups. To play it safer, I can put my setup just below that BUOB low, like in a usual method. The desicion about this will more depend on the situation and how confidant I am in the certain setup.

The ideal setup will be a sharp trend up, break a round number with a large BUOB or large pin, and then enter at a retrace to the round number with a limit order.

All the above are just thoughts. Nothing that I can say is working. I am spending time demoing and back testing it. This is only about using my knowledge to improve my results.


Ben
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Old Aug 29, 2009 2:06pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
If he does, does he drive his teachers batty?
Tell yea the real truth...you will find me wandering around outside during most of the lessons I hate?.history, literature, etc...I'm a bit (a bit?sure) hyperactive, so I do drive my teachers crazy lol. But I do have good marks for classes I am ok with

You know..in one of James PMs, he told me "do not make it your job". That is really important IMO. Personally I do not have tons of money I can trade and get rich from overnight. I do not even think about it that way. For what do I need ton of money now? Worst case I can ask my parents for money if I really need it. I trade because I enjoy it mostly. I can spend many time on it because I like doing it. If it isn't fun, it will be way harder.

I see many people set monthly targets of ROI like 10%-30% that they plan to achieve every month. It is obvious they trade only for the money. That is a very bad and dangerous habit IMO. That is being greedy.

I just take what the market offers me. I know this from different psychology books. In order to be successful in this business, we need to control ourselves. We can't control the market, and that is what we are regular to do in our daily life style - to control others. The only way to succeed in this market is to control ourselves and fit ourselves to the market conditions. How can you archive 10% if the market doesn't allow it? That is crazy.

I will take what the market offers me. Setting targets is bad because psychologically you have the filling that you need to control the market and just trade because you have a certain target - that is to trade just to trade....and it is a killer.
The market is giving a shi*t about what target you want or not want.

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Take a price bar that is a PA bar.

Pick the spot to where it will go. Primary, secondary etc. Rinse, repeat. Do this as the bar presents itself or F12 through the bars.

That is the demo.

I have done this to an extent, but not rigorously. I am going to because it is a big help.
That is EXACTLY what I have said I do as an exercise, I think last week I said that. Many times I mark the prediction of what price will do for the following days. That is a great thing because if you are right, that means you can read price.

Ben
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Old Aug 29, 2009 4:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Geeeeez, you are catching on quick...

I do this all the time.. try adding fib retaces of the main pa bar & look for your pa on 1 or 2 tf's lower for confirmation...
keep it up Ben.. your doing awesome
Hey jeff, thanks for your comment man. Personally I am not a big fib fan, but I will look for more major points and see if I can get the 50% lines up with my needs. Thanks buddy.

Ohh and by the way, offense can't be taken here in this thread



Quote:
What is reasonable? It depends on your method, your skill with that method, and your availability to the market to apply the method in a skillful way. 2 - 3% is very nice for most traders on a monthly basis. And you'll be beating nearly any fund out there. Most here have a job to attend to. But I know a number of traders who pull in a significant weekly percentage. And I am glad they do not publish it - as it would be damaging to most.
Well...currently I am just focusing on how to trade right. IMO the monthly ROI is just a question of MM and account size. If you have a big enough account, you don't need to worry about the ROI...and if you don't have a big enough account, but do know to really trade well...it's all about the MM settings. You can make 200% ROI and 2% with the same trading results...depending on how are you willing to risk and how confident you are in your trading, win rate, draw down, etc. So that isn't a big deal IMO.

By the way, speaking about win rate...to me win rate and correct position sizing is much more important mainly because the mentally aspect. I am very confidante in my trading when I spot a good enough setup, because I focus more on win rate than R:R. That is why I prefer getting a BE and miss a huge R:R opportunity. That is really important IMO.

Quote:
But let me tell you why I am doing this. Money. Period. And the things that the money will allow me to do, and that is the real bottom line.

I've been poor, and I've been rich. Rich is better. That, in and of itself is not greed. Greed will make you do completely stupid things. So will being poor.
Yea...you are probably right. I felt something iffy about that sentence when I wrote it. Of course we are doing it for the money itself, and of course it provides better and easier life. I meant to say that personally, I feel like if you are doing it just for the money, it has no chance. and that I look at it more as numbers than money. Personally, I am happy with what I have in this stage of life, but building the future.

Ben
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Old Aug 30, 2009 5:56am
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Default Price action and omentum

Hey folks,

Just discovered another very interesting fact during my back testing of price action setups.

I have found that most of the failed PA bars haven't triggered by the next bar. I mean, if I have a pin bar, and it doesn't break by the next bar after it - that is a sign of weakness, and many times you can identify failed PA bars by this occurring.

So basically I think it is lack of momentum, or in other words - price is in indecision status.

So all the idea behind using round numbers, breakout, or just any PA bar, is to have momentum pushing it by orders that trigger one after the other.

Did any of you notice this? Do you cancel your pending order in this situation, or keep it?

To be honest, this is not new to me...I just want to hear a bit of other opinions on this because I really found it significant now by scrolling back on my charts.

By the way, saying PA, I mean only pin bars and outside bars. I still do not play DBLHC, DBHLC, and inside bars. By the way, is it right to say that these are less reliable than pin bars and outside bars?

Ben
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Old Aug 30, 2009 6:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
I always cancel my order if it is not triggered in the next bar for the reasons you mentioned (lack of momentum)....
Hey Josh, thanks for the comment

Well, personally I less like the concept of DBLHC and DBHLC because it is bassically telling you that price failed to break one side, which is a sign of weakness, but on the other hand it broke to the other side.
I prefer outside bars because basically they has the same concept, but a bit more significant. Because if I see that price managed to push further to one side, and get rejected so hard (naturally outside bars are very big most of the time), and managed to close on the other side, I see the rejection more stronger, but maybe it is just in my head lol. Time will tell. I still didn't test them..just my general thought from looking at their shape.
Edit: I must say that in order that an outside bar will be tradable for me, it needs to be large enough that I can look at it and know what's going on in the market. That will be or a very large bar, or a bar that engulfs at least the 3-4 previous bars. From my backtesting, I am beginning to get the criteria for the best outside bars. Being picky with them will pay off.


Inside bars are completely another type of PA, as you have mentioned. I will get there.

Nice to hear you are canceling your pending orders when the PA didn't trigger. Thank you for sharing....by the way, who is Peter Crown? any chance that his nick is PeterFM?

By the way, great post above!! You have mentioned the stress of the beginning, when price moves 20 pips against you and you get upset. IMO, the understanding that the market always moves in waves, can help with this. Eliot waves theory basically says that price moves in waves - one big wave with the trend, than a smaller retrace wave, than another bigger wave further with the trend, etc.
To get a bit more advanced - this is because any buyer needs a seller. If there were only buyer or only sellers, price wouldn't be moving..that causing the retrace waves..but it isn't important now.

Personally, when I have plaid pins in the last month, I was looking on my charts most of the time, and I have noticed that many times after a pin breaks, price immediately retraces to the left eye, and then shoots with the PB direction.

IMO pin bars are a sign of a fast rejection (big wave), so if we understand that every big wave is followed by a minor retrace wave, we do not need to freak out when this is happening (price retraces to the lif eye of the bip = small wave after a big wave). I will get more nervous when the retrace is going behind the lift eye and doesn't respect it...then I know something is going wrong.

All this is basically the thing that pushed me to start testing entries on retraces. If price does it most of the time, so why not use it smartly?
1) it will let me enter on the begging of the next fresh wave.
2) I will double my position size, meaning I can get X2 profit from each trade.
3) I can use this space in order to put my stop even further back (instead of doubling the position size) if there is a big round number, fib, EMA, traffic or something I feel that can protect my stop better and sitting a bit further behind my pin.

Just thoughts

Ben
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Last edited by benji533, Aug 30, 2009 7:46am
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Old Aug 30, 2009 7:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nonick View Post
Hi Ben,
interesting observation
i believe that Mike almost always cancels his order if a PA bar doesn't trigger by the next bar. He explains it exactly as you did : if a PA bar doesn't break, there's no momentum. And if there's no momentum, then that PA bar might be not that good. So it makes sense to play safe and just cancel your order.
I do it in a similar way,i also cancel my order if it doesn't get triggered soon enough, unless i see a really good A+ PA bar, at a good location, then i'll give it some time, i.e. i'll wait for the next...
Hey nonick, tahks for your comment.

Thinking about what you have said, while remembering that we are humans that need to use common sense and not robots, I think there are some situations when you get a pin bar followed with another smaller pin bar. So in this case I will think twice before canceling my order, cause there is still a sign of rejection.....but only if I really really like the prior pin and the location.

for DBLHC and DBHLC, this is what I have just replied to josh:

Quote:
Well, personally I less like the concept of DBLHC and DBHLC because it is bassically telling you that price failed to break one side, which is a sign of weakness, but on the other hand it broke to the other side.
I prefer outside bars because basically they has the same concept, but a bit more significant. Because if I see that price managed to push further to one side, and get rejected so hard (naturally outside bars are very big most of the time), and managed to close on the other side, I see the rejection more stronger, but maybe it is just in...
Thinking again on inside bars, I think one of the problems with them is over trading. This type of bars is occurring everywhere, and it can be confusing and may cause over thinking or over trading. But I still really do not know much about them. I know there are several good threads speaking about them like the DIBS thread....so as I said, I will get there

Ohh and yes. I also think that the most important thing about inside bars is the location. PPZs are really good, but I think I will like them more on major round numbers. That makes sense because most of the time price is in indecision status and consolidating around these round numbers, because the tons of orders that trigger, there is a real war between buyers and sellers on these specific round numbers, so it is the best place to see indecision, and where it breaks. That is my opinion.

By the way, I like using round numbers on intraday because of logic behind them, but also because another reason.
They help me to be much much more focused, have my plan in place, have clean charts and not over trade.

About a few weeks back, my charts looked like the biggest mess ever. I have tried to go and spot every minor PPZ on my charts using lines and boxes. That drove me crazy. Now I just use the significant ones on my chart and use the rest to manage my trades, trail stops, etc.

Thanks for sharing you are canceling your pending orders if the PA bar doesn't trigger

Take care,

Ben
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Old Aug 30, 2009 8:45am
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Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
PB over the daily chart.

This PB have been formed after a pull back trought a PPZ(blue rectangule)

This area is an heavy oane because of those bar lows. Each time price touch this zone was rejected. Finally price makes a breakout and on the pull back have formed this PB. The close it's below those lows from the left (blue eclipse) which could be a problem, which makes this PB more powerful.

Confluence:

- at PPZ
- 61.8 fib retracement from the last up move
- 150 EMA
- space up until 150

I know that this is not at a swing high but can...
Hey triger,

Personally I wouldn't take it because I don't trade these kind of setups, but I can see it as a break of 4 matching lows, a pullback, and now a pin bar to confirm.

The pin bar itself is a C setup IMO

Any way, here is my analysis (pic).

Good luck bro

Ben
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Old Aug 30, 2009 9:53am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hey triger,

Personally I wouldn't take it because I don't trade these kind of setups, but I can see it as a break of 4 matching lows, a pullback, and now a pin bar to confirm.

The pin bar itself is a C setup IMO

Any way, here is my analysis (pic).

Good luck bro

Ben
Just now noticed that this is the setup from last week. Zoomed into the 1H, same chart - now look how Mike's breakout pattern worked twice here!
I promise I saw that 4 matching lows and the pullback on the daily without looking at the 1H - I totally forgot it!!

Lets just read the market like a book and make fun

Ben
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Old Aug 30, 2009 9:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
Hi Benji,
I believe Mike said the same as well, re the next bar to PA one/s.
He cancels the order if it's not triggered in the very first bar afterward, as it shows lack of momentum.
Sometimes, and I repeat sometimes, I reassess as you might get a new pa in that bar, like in the chart, there is PB and the next bar was IB, so I kept the order in place, as the the IB low was just 5 pips above the low of the PB.
Hey 2mas,

Yea, I have just said to nonick in my post that there will be some cases that we will still see momentum by a smaller PA bar, and in that case it may pay off to keep the order.

Thanks for you comment on this

Ben
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Old Aug 30, 2009 3:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Hi guys,

Just wanted to put this up so you guys know...

My university starts from tomorrow and I'll be there for just as much time as I am at home trading and posting/reading at FF.

Besides I am commencing some of my trading research projects that I've lined up for quite some time. Whatever extra time I have I aim to utilize it looking beyond what I know into the unseen and unknown to discover the true world behind those price bars, so obviously I won't be just as available as up till now,

I'll obviously drop back for a while here and there,...
Good luck buddy....and take care...

Do not forget us

Ben
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Old Aug 30, 2009 3:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hello every one,

I have a question about your trading styles.

HOW DO YOU MONITOR YOUR CHARTS.

1- You see a PB, IB, OB, DBHLC and DBLHC. then you zoom out to see where is it formed I.E near a PPZ, FIB LEVEL, MA, SWING H/L or a TREND LINE.

OR

2- You draw you PPZ, TREND LINES, Check out for FIB LEVELS and MA'S and then you wait for a PB, IB, OB, DBHLC and DBLHC to appear.

THANK's.
Hi Nasir,

I think that this question is asked because you don't have a plan in place?

IMO, you need to spend a bit time making a plan or a general idea of what you are looking for. That way you won't need to think and break your head so much.

Search for certain patterns.

Personally, I use the round numbers, so it is very easy for me. I just scan my charts every few hours and it takes my something like 5 minutes to go through all the pairs. If price isn't heading into a round number, I pass.

That works for me.

Ben
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Old Aug 30, 2009 4:21pm
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Default Hey Aaron - my few opinions (:

Quote:
Let me answer some of your questions from my experience.

Cancelling the order if it doesn't trigger next bar

I know that mbqb11 cancels his order if the next bar doesn't trigger his entry 99% of the time. I am slightly different. Of course we all love to see price shoot down and never look back. But I look at it this way. If the next bar neither invalidates the pin bar (for example) nor triggers it, then it's an inside bar. Which in itself is a PA signal. And the pin bar plus inside bar combination can be deadly (also outside...
This is really interesting, but also confusing. A pin bar is a sign of fast and sharp rejection, and an inside bar is a sign of indecision. So basically that indecision is canceling the "push" of momentum the pin is showing". I will need to check the inside bars deeper before I can say something about them. But basically I also think that we need to use common sense and not be robots. Meaning that if I see a pin bar followed with another pin bar that didn't break to the opposite side, this is still a sign of rejection.
I think I can make these kind of decisions depending on each case and setup separately.

Quote:
DBHLC

I rarely play them, mainly because they rarely show up, but if I did I would look for them at the obvious swing points. The thing I always try and remember about these bars so as not to spook myself about them being a rare and exotic PA setup, is that a DBHLC is really only a pip away from being a good outside bar with a strong close, and is usually a 2 bar pin anyway. It's just another way of looking at rejections on price.

Which brings me onto my next point...
ok I spoke about it today in another post, but I will give my opinion on this setup again.
What does a DBLHC or a DBHLC really tells us? as I see it, price failed to break one side, which is a sign of weakness, and a break to the other side is a sign for strength. I am not a big fan of this concept.

When I see a outside bar that barely engulfs the previous bar, I skip on it. I want to see it going further testing the weak side, and get rejected very fast and hard that it ends as a large bar with it's close on the other side.

I will explain why this is very important. Lets say I want to go long. I see a BUOB - why it is important to see it went much lower than the previous bar and shot up?
This is simple. If I have a BUOB that engulfs the previous 3-4 bars, I know that below theses previous bars, there can be many TP orders of buyers, or stop orders of fresh sellers, or limit orders of fresh buyers.
When the BUOB tests the low and shots up, it tells me:
1) sellers TP orders were hit, and now the buyers have more strength.
2) maybe some buy limit orders of buyers were hit, and the bulls get stronger.
3) The fact that the price shot up and closed as a BUOB with the close on the upper side of the bars, verifies for me that no sell stop orders were triggered, meaning no fresh sellers strength.

When I see a large BUOB, I do not know which situations from 1-3, or what mix of them have occurred, but I do know that whatever did happen, it is obvious that the bulls are in control.

This is why it's so important fore me to see a large outside bar that test further the low of the previous bar.

If I skip on outside bars which are barely outside bars....what sense will be in taking a DBLHC or a DBHLC? Maybe I am missing some thing. In fact, I hope James will see this post and give his opinion on the logic behind these setups. Personally, I do not like to do things like a robot - I want to understand the logic. Till I can't get to like the concept, I don't care how good it works on the screen (sorry if I am being rude, no offense to anyone).

Quote:
Retrace Entries

DBHLC and Outside Bars often retrace at least 50% in my experience. If I see a good outside bar on the daily I will set my order for the breach as normal, but will also be watching 4H like a hawk at the 50% level for god price action. Then, rather than it being a retrace entry per se, it become a good 4H trade with strong daily bar confluence. In fact Rac likes looking for PA between the 50 and 61.8 ret of any swing.

I personally have never seen good results from setting blind entries at 50% retraces because often...
This is a great advice.

I just want to quote this again:

Quote:
I personally have never seen good results from setting blind entries at 50% retraces because often just ploughs through. Better to wait for good PA.
I never ever set blind entries without logic
If you have noticed, I play my intraday trades ONLY off round numbers.

Here is a post I made about how I use roud numbers in order to enter a PA bar on the retrace: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42512

Outside bars are naturally huge, and naturally retrace before taking off - you too said that. As I have said to josh, price moves in waves as a fact. According to Eliot wave theory, trends are created by big waves that are followed with smaller retrace waves. Every big wave is followed with a smaller retrace wave - the move of an outside bar is a really large and fast rejection move, which is a "big" wave (of course a minor big wave. Every wave is created by minor waves that were also created by even more minor waves, etc). I believe that after every sharp and fast move, you will see a retrace. So that retrace that always follows the outside bars, is the small wave - this really makes perfect sense to me.

ok ok...how do I use it and how does it connect to your sentence I have quoted. I think that placing a limit order on the 50% of the outside doesn't really make sense. Why the 50%? I think that the best place to place a limit order will be on the round number. Why? because I am sure that is the ideal place for more orders to be triggered in my direction. If I play an 4H outside bar, I am sure that those that play the 5min are tuned with there limit orders on that round number - they want to get a chance to get again into the market on the pullback.

So I can say that till now, my testing produced great results of entering on the retrace with a limit order ON THE ROUND NUMBER. That will usually be the area where price will shoot in my favor again. That is an entry of a fresh new big wave.

Quote:
Another way to look at things

Now that you're armed with the information about retraces within bars, another way to use it is to not look for early entries but to look for reduced stops. For example, you still enter your trade on bar breach, but you set your stop at 50% of the bar, or at a key SR level, or at the second eye of a pin bar. Jarroo does this a lot. I've even been testing having a standard 50 pip stop and shooting for a 50 pip target from an A+ bar breach (only testing this on daily). A simple in and out for 1R. I'm also...
Well...if you and jarroo do good with it, I am sure it makes sense. But in this case, it is a kinda conflict with the paragraph above
If I have discovered that many times price retraces on big outside bars, what logic will be to reduce stop to the half of the bar? There are high odds that price will retrace, hit my stop, and then go in my favor....
I guess it needs a separate testing.

Quote:
Caveat

This post is specifically directed at Benji because he's reached a stage where he knows what he's doing and can cope with this stuff. But if you haven't mastered playing price action the classic way, and you think this is a way to squeeze more profits, then this information will kill you. It will destroy your account and your confidence and give you next to no chance in this business. Get the basics right and the rest will follow.

I had someone trade my money once using price action principles. He fancied himself a bit of...
This is really important to me. I agree with you that at least 50% of trading is psychology, and that is why I always try to push these copyrighted books into my posts and PMs. Understanding simple rules and facts is very easy, but applying it and using common sense is the real thing. IMO, it is all about psychology and common sense (and money management - can't ignore it).
I agree that confidence is really important factor in trading. I hear many traders say that they have a low win rate, but a huge R:R, so it doesn't bother them loosing. I am different. Maybe I will be more profitable in the long run if I'll let my trades more space, but I know that mentally, it will be much better for me to not let a winner become a loser (I think James is the same). If I see my trade going to the first trouble area, and I end with a lose, that is just enjoying for me.
I think psychology and MM are the basics, before having a method.

Quote:
It really is amazing how quickly you are assimilating the advanced material benji. You're going to be a James16 senior member and teacher before long...
LOL

with the length of my posts, I think it will me more effective for me to upload videos lol.
Just kidding....my English accent is really bad....I do not talk here English much...only writing

Anyway, thank you of the post Aaron....I appreciate it.

Ben
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  #42558  
Old Aug 30, 2009 5:13pm
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Quote:
1) sellers SL orders were hit, and now the buyers have more strength.
I meant to say TP orders, not SL.

Just edited my post.

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 2:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Hi Ben,

You speak English immaculately. I would never have guessed it wasn't your first language.

You're going down very similar avenues that I went down a few months ago and I wanted to offer just a gentle warning based on my experience.

Keep it simple.

All your thoughts are good thoughts, and wanting to understand the reason why PA appears is a very valid line of thought. But when you start looking into it you'll realise that there are many many reasons why a particular PA setup can appear. Joelcf has a great post on this. And then you start...

Hey Aaron,

Thanks again for this useful post.

Actually, yea my nature is to search search for logic and understanding behind every tiny thing I do. In this case I have got so deep in what I THINK is causing the outside bars, just to try to explain why I prefer them instead of DBHLCDBLHC bars.

But basically, whatever the reason will be...if the bottom line is that I can read price through this bar, and understand from it that bulls have more power, it enough for me.

When I trade, I do not think about all these things - I keep it simple.
Once I get logic behind the setup in general, I can treat it more like a robot when I actually trade.

I believe that trading is very simple, and that's why I keep it that way.
I separate between the logic that I search for, to the action of trading itself. I was always thinking about this stuff, so I have proved to my self that I can make the separation successfully.

I understand though what you are trying to say about simplicity and over complex. That's ok, my trading will remain simple

Thank you though for sharing this. It helped me understand a few thing plus opened this discussion for others to give their opinions (I see Joel cooked me a post as well ).

Take care Buddy,

Ben

Edit: The simple reason for doing this, is basically to use any knowledge that I can get, in order to improve and get better results of anything I ever do (trading or whatever).
Maybe I got to this stage too fast, but feel that I didn't miss anything in the way...at least for now
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Old Aug 31, 2009 2:25am
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@ nAVIN2007 - Thank you

@ 2mas - Great story. Thatks for the link.

@ jarro - Yea I got your point. PA alone is only one part of the story, I know. I have stopped using EMA's and fibs because they don't really help me. As more as my charts are cleaner and simpler, I do better.
I will continue testing and checking all sorts of ways to enter these bars...until I get the way that fits me the best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Understanding is one thing... and trading pin off of support live, without peeing in the pants is another. They're two different things. Trust me....

I know at least two guys from this forum (don't worry, i won't tell who you are), who PM me every other day. They can run circles around me with their understanding of PA, yet they keep losing dollar after dollar...
It takes time/years (and many won't ever get there) to master your psyche and emotions.

Quite a few authors made millions on great...
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
so true(although I haven't met anyone who has actually peed themselves :P ).

That's why when Jim says it is all whats going on b/w your ears, he ain't lying.

Takes time folks, but then it really does become second nature it feel. That is what consistency is and why you see certain traders do the SAME things over and over and over......
HAHA cool....exactly what I have said here:

Quote:
This is really important to me. I agree with you that at least 50% of trading is psychology, and that is why I always try to push these copyrighted books into my posts and PMs. Understanding simple rules and facts is very easy, but applying it and using common sense is the real thing. IMO, it is all about psychology and common sense (and money management - can't ignore it).
I agree that confidence is really important factor in trading. I hear many traders say that they have a low win rate, but a huge R:R, so it doesn't...
Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 2:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Not necessarily. On a daily bar, it could be a sharp move upwards in the first hour, then 23 hours of gradual descent. An inside bar could be a combination of a few big orders to form the first bar during a period of market quiet, and then thousands of orders battling for market position on the inside over a tight spread.

Without access to order book info from at least one large liquidity provider, if not several, you really dont know. It is far too easy to read too much into simple bars, something I am often guilty of.

[size=1](interesting...
Thank you Joel.

This isn't going to be a long post, because basically all the things I have said in my post are conclusions of taking my time to think...nothing is a fact or a proved thing I studied (hope no one got me wrong). So all I can do is purely learn from this post.

But basically it shows me that there is probably no clear answer, and maybe it's better to just learn from my back testing results without involving all sorts of theories that aren't perfectly right - keep it simple.

I will just keep going..

I really appreciate this post. Although I don't have a lot to say, I got a lot out of it.

Thank you your posts are really great.

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 4:31am
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Default Me crazzy :P

ok guys...I thought first that it can drive people crazy trying to do this...but I just have to post it.

Remember the post I have made on about entries on the retrace to the round number? Remember the GBPCHF chart?

So this is how it looks on the 30min chart on my demo testing account....till now this went 300 pips, meaning 10R. Make your own conclusion.

On the 4H I got a BEOB, and then placed a sell limit order on the round number. Trailing with the BAT indicator on the 4H.

Please don't think I'm crazy I know it's crazy, but simple as well and practice PA on high TFs with a regular entry! anything else on demo only if at all please.

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 4:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jazflyer View Post
Aloha,
I was hoping to get an opinion on the GU short I entered earlier.

I shorted upon the retest of the uptrend line with a bearish PB confirmation and fib confluence as well as a...
Hey Jazflyer,

Actually this is a nice flag pattern. I didn't play it mainly because it is against the main trend.
Secondly The pin is too small for me. However that divergence makes sense to me.

You have missed another trouble area, which I have marked with a blue horizontal line. Check out how if acted as a price flip zone.

IMO, if you took that trade as a breakout trade, you can just trail your stops after you are in a free trade. If using PPZs and PA bars to move your stops makes you a bit confused, try trailing with Mike's 2 bar stop method. It helps with all the emotion and desicion making stuff.

Hope it helps,

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 5:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Saw this as a good pin bar but I was stopped out when I placed my stop just above the PPZ (Whole Number)

Did I miss something?
Well, basically what went wrong IMO is that you have tried to trade against the trend based on a B pin bar

The size of the pin is nice, but again, when you are trading against the trend you need to ask yourself. "Is this pin really a sign for a trend reserval? what supports me?".

What I see is a pin deep in traffic. This is a B pin because it's nose doesn't stick high above all other bar highs. The location wasn't the best IMO.

Tell you the truth, I personally very rarely trade trend reversals if there is no divergence. But I still remember that it is a killer if I use it alone on trending markets.

For me, I need a VERY VERY strong sign in order to trade against a trend. Look at the pic below - see what you are trading against?

This pair is very choppy and that is why I have stopped looking at it lately, so this also can be a reason.

By the way, I consider only the major round numbers - every 500 pips. Means they need to end with 500 or 000 on these kind of pairs.

Hope it helps?

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 6:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
Hmmm.. dont' quite understand 1 thing ... but aren't we suppose to look for Pin bars at swing highs which is what it was at that time?

I do agree that the nose was not poking out as much though. and without the MACD divergence, it may have been a killer.
Yea, you want them on swing high - but you also want them to be A+ setups, or at least to have enough supporting factors to your desicion. That B pin alone doesn't mean a lot to me. You need to be very careful when you trade against the trend. I personally like to trail my stops, so I must trade in the direction of the trend, meaning entering on all sorts of pullbacks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tradertt View Post
P.S.

1 more thing: Tell you the truth, I personally very rarely trade trend reversals if there is no divergence. But I still remember that it is a killer if I use it alone on trending markets.

Would you mind elaborating a little bit more on this?
Basically divergence shows a gap between the oscillator and the price, which needs to be filled. How? by a reserval. So I use it as a clue for a reserval, and I have scrolled far enough back on my charts in order to see that it does work.

I say that it is a killer alone on trending markets, basically because it is just a clue. You can't just see some divergence and trade against the trend. The forex market is the most powerful when trending. Once a trend is in place, it's hard to reserve it. You need a very very good confluence of factors in order to trade against the trend. In your case, all I see is a B pin bar.

You can trade against the trend by trading pullbacks, but IMO it is harder. I believe that if you can't trade with the trend, it will be very difficult to trade against it. You need to manage you trades very tightly.

Hey, all above in only my opinion.

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 6:47am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hey i did the same with GJ while ago. I am on your tail buddy.
Cool
But I use only major round numbers.

Where was your stop?

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 7:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Greetings all...
1 of the very few times that i still have an ongoing position, whether on demo or live. (normally, i get to post closed trades)
demo XTB MT4.

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Man you are trading according to my method as well! How did I miss this one?
This is a great trade, pullback to the major round number and shoots up! What can be better? it works again and again and again

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 7:18am
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Anyways, I will address divergence in another post, because I think it needs to be talked about (badly, judging by the responses you got).
I guess I am guilty again

I will be glad to get a post on this from you.

Ben

PS - Joel, a part of trading against the trend is also naturally trading into "traffic"PPZs. So usually I automatically see this, but thank you for stressing it.
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Old Aug 31, 2009 9:19am
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Joel, you are the man! Really, thank you.

I was a dumber divergence man about 30min ago.
As I have said - If I have knowledge, logic and understanding of how things work, I can benefit from it and not do things as a robot. Till now I have used divergence as a robot.
That was a very great explanation.

I have read at several places how the histogram is calculated, difference between moving averages, etc. That is a very common subject you can find anywhere in the internet.

Thinking about price moving slower at the last period of time, AKA lack of momentum....that lines up perfectly with the thing I see and say all the time. The odds of trading against a very steep are lower than trading against a ranging trend that rises slowly. It's like the ball and the window. To me it makes sense.

Thank you man great to have you here.

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 10:11am
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post

The quick version is that this happens because there were a bunch of sellers, they all sold their stuff and left. So now the buyers push the price through the PPZ, and the buy orders on the other side get filled (pushing price up more).

But each time, there are probably less and less sellers there. The rest already sold up, went home and made dinner. Eventually, price breaks through.
This is very interesting as usual. I think I have summed it up in the chart below.

That makes sense now to say that the more a certain supportre/sistance area gets tested and the rejection is weaker from the previous time - the odds for a breakout grow.
Just a few things which passed through my head while reading this post.

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 11:09am
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supremeChaos - Thanks for the links. By the way, all the things I say are thoughts..I need to stress it lol.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
I must admit my make up is slightly different from the "I don't want to trade it like a robot" approach that ben talks about. Neither is wrong it's just a personal psych thing. I used to be the kind of guy that would take Joel's post and then make it my project to try and work out where CCI worked better than MACD and where stochastics and TRIX trumped them all and with what setting.
I am the kind of person you have mentioned - wants to know any thing he can. It is just interesting.

But so far I am managing to do the separation between the desire to know and understand everything, to the action of trading itself. When I see a setup I like, I never start thinking about sellers, buyers and all sorts of stuff. I just see it as bars. Mainly it helps me to prevent emotions that can mess up my decisions.

But I'll tell you why it is important for me to know all these things while I am not trading - I want to gain more confidence in my method. I want to know what I am doing. After I have proved it to myself, and know I am not just a dumb that does things without thinking - then I can do the specific action of trading without thinking. Then everything is very simple for me.

You are saying that you wish you were trading like a robot. That is a thing that many will be wishing IMO. We have already said that learning PA is very simple, but applying is the hard part. So if you can apply in without involving too much emotions (like a robot), it is great. But how can you know your method will work? you need to back test and check you aren't doing dumb things (that's me anyway).

This is the important part for me, because here I gain my confidence which allows me to trade like a robot

Hope that makes sense....we are quite similar Aaron

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 11:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
.
Cool

I was wondering if you have any thread or PDF summarizing your method? Seems that many like you advices

Ben

PS - we are killing this market
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Old Aug 31, 2009 11:42am
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
I'll let Mark answer this more correctly, but I know that if you read through all his posts on this thread, you can get a very good idea of what strategy he uses. I know because I've done it and I feel like I have a pretty good grasp of what and how he trades... takes time... only you can decide if it's worth it. He gives little hints about things he looks for in many many posts. It's just a matter of going through his material.

Nice trade btw!

Josh
Yea...he is on my list. But it will take a bit time to go through those 2,000 posts lol.
Hoped to find some shortcut.

Thanks anyway Josh

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 11:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Aha.... u are getting impatient.
U may be a quick sponge like some of us here, but it does not mean u can/should cut corners all the time.

I believe it's better & worth it, like Jduester said, to view each posts.
to me, the more posts to view & review, THE BETTER!

try & start with 1-5 traders u are interested to emulate, then read all their posts. ALL, not some. avoid shortcuts. U won't regret it

Take it from a possibly more impatient & inquisitive guy like me
LOL

Today is the last day I can stay at home and spend my time in this thread all day lol.

Mike killed me with his 3,000+ posts....I need a break (But I admit it was one of the smartest things I ever did..Mike really rocks!).

Ben
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Old Aug 31, 2009 12:34pm
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Here is another nice one by my style

Pin off a round number. Closes above the number and within the prior bar + space (looks like a yummy cherry).

Entry with buy limit on the round number....

Words can't describe what this thread and people here gave me this summer (month)....a lot for sure.

It is so easy now. Thanks of you guys.
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Old Aug 31, 2009 12:52pm
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edit
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Old Sep 1, 2009 12:07pm
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Hey what's up gang?

Wasn't at home most of the day (school, gym, stuff)....but the market was too kind to me and prepared for me a nice present for 1st of September

Hope everyone are making some pips!

Ben
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Old Sep 1, 2009 12:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FinnTrader View Post
I have a question concerning stop losses when trading pin bars.

Some suggest that stop should be placed below/above the whole pin bar meaning often hundreds of pips on bigger time frames. This kills the risk/reward, but losses should be very rare if managed tightly.

Others tend to use small 30-40 pip stops. Then losses happen more often, but r/r gets better.


Which style do you prefer?


I have noticed that when a pin bar breaks it often gives the reaction immediately with zero drawdown so I quess the smaller stops should be more profitable way...
You probably saw me addressing this.

To be supper honest with you - don't try to play them on the retrace either reduce your stop before you master the basic way.

Play them the right way = stop a few pips above the high or below the low of the pin. After you master it and do good for a period of time, make your back testing of your own, demo them....only then trade them on live.

There are no shortcuts in this businesses. I spend ton of hours only on scrolling back on my charts again and again and again on many different pairs and time frames (that was fun though cool to see how they work and go where you expect).

If you are really concerned about the pip stop, try to go one or two time frames lower for a better entry...but on DEMO of course.

That is to be completely honest with you. It will pay off eventually.

Ben
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Old Sep 1, 2009 12:48pm
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Originally Posted by 2mas View Post
Your welcome young man.
Here is my take, even if you don't use them, keeping them in front of your eyes on your charts, might open your eyes to see what made James to keep them after decades of trading. Surely he sees things many of us can't see, yet.
I have plotted the 150EMA and 365EMA on my charts and used them a several times. They are great with rejecting price. I believe James uses them because it fits his style, which is different from mine (although the material is the same).

I have discovered that the cleaner my charts - the cleaner and fresher my mind and ability to see things. If I trade a breakout which looks perfect, the EMA that stands a couple of pips further in my way can only make my confidence weaker...and if they line up with my trade - it doesn't make any difference to me.

I know it will sound a bit wrong to do...but I hardly focus on confluence in my trades. If I see a perfect breakout pattern that doesn't head straight into a PPZ, traffic - I am all good. If I see a great bar off a round number with space to go - I am all good. If I see a cherry pin bar hanging alone with ton of space around - I am all good. I don't really need much more.

I have just noticed that it is very simple, clear and works for me over and over and over again, so I can't see any reason to complicate things.

I agree with 100% that pins off the 50% ret and 365EMA are great setups....but that is another thing messing my charts.
Personally I usually have only 1-2 lines all my chart. I keep them supper simple. Price is everything


Thank you buddy for the advice though You aren't the first that mentioning them to me...so I know they are very useful for others. Maybe one day I will use them in another way.

Take care brother

Ben
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Old Sep 1, 2009 1:09pm
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Wasn't at home to catch this beauty...but enjoying to see it working again

Ben
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Old Sep 1, 2009 1:35pm
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This day was a gift for traders.

Ben
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Old Sep 2, 2009 10:40am
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
(Joel, this is not intended to pick on you or your post....
Hey Josh,

I know I am not Joel, but I was doing this as well. So maybe it can help you hearing my thought while doing it.

Placing the initial stop below the pin (classic stop) is giving your trade place to move before it goes in your favor. If the price retraces immediately after I placed my trade, it's just a looser trade. But if it went in my favor, got to the first area of trouble (as expected), and retraced - then I'll never take a full bar loss on it.

There are many traders who like to give there trades a bit more place at the beginning (like Mike). So they just move there stop slightly when it gets to the first trouble area (or any other trailing stop method), instead of moving their stop straight away to BE (like James does).

So basically I think you have an excellent question, and my personal answer based on how I do this, will be that after price got to the first trouble area, it makes no difference between moving your stop slightly, or just monitoring the trade and killing it early - that is the same - in both ways you are not taking a full bar loss after price reached 1st trouble area.
On the other hand, if price retraced before hitting the first trouble area - I will probably not kill it.

I have the same believe as you on emotions that can ruin trades more often than improve them. So my personal preference will be to just move my stop slightly (where exactly = depends on the different situation on each trade and the way I plan to handle my stops. trail, targets,etc).

Again, I'm not Joel, but I am doing the same...so thought maybe it can help you in such a way

Ben
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Old Sep 2, 2009 11:03am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hey Jazflyer,

Actually this is a nice flag pattern. I didn't play it mainly because it is against the main trend.
Secondly The pin is too small for me. However that divergence makes sense to me.

You have missed another trouble area, which I have marked with a blue horizontal line. Check out how if acted as a price flip zone.

IMO, if you took that trade as a breakout trade, you can just trail your stops after you are in a free trade. If using PPZs and PA bars to move your stops makes you a bit confused, try trailing with Mike's 2 bar stop method....
Cool. It stalled as predicted.

Hey Jazflyer, hope you have at least moved your stop to BE at the line I have pointed out here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42626

It isn't yet a failed trade, but even on winners you can predict where price will retrace...so you can be ready for it and not freak out when it happens, or move your stop to BE at that point, or just close the position.
But never be surprised and take a full bar lose loss. In this case the pin is really really small...that fact even rises the odds of this retrace to occur...so we must be ready for it and act accordingly....that also means not to play these puddle bars at all (James would say "treat it as a business").

Hope it helps.

Ben
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Old Sep 2, 2009 12:11pm
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Hey Mike...hope you will see this post.

I had been monitoring a breakout pattern on daily. When it broke, the only PA it produced was a pin on the 15min chart.

Basically it is not trade-able for me. Logically thinking...it is not so smart to enter a breakout of daily bars, based on a 15min pin bar. A 15min bar has no value of data next to the daily bars. Based on this, I have decided that the maximum I'll allow my self to go down in time frames in order to spot a PA confirmation bar will be 2 time frames difference.
For example - If I have my pattern on daily, so the lower I will get is the 1H chart.

Because I know it's your method and you probably have been trading it for a while, it will be nice to hear your take about this. If it's ok...

Ben
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Old Sep 2, 2009 1:08pm
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ok guys...I thought first that it can drive people crazy trying to do this...but I just have to post it.

Remember the post I have made on about entries on the retrace to the round number? Remember the GBPCHF chart?

So this is how it looks on the 30min chart on my demo testing account....till now this went 300 pips, meaning 10R. Make your own conclusion.

On the 4H I got a BEOB, and then placed a sell limit order on the round number. Trailing with the BAT indicator on the 4H.

Please don't think I'm crazy I know it's crazy,...
I have closed this one with +7R profit, after one of the bars closed above the BAT on the 4H chart.

Mike, if you don't mind, I have another question

You can see on my second chart, that the 4H bar closed above the BAT, but then the next bar shot down again.
Now I am trying to learn from it...
If I had been placing my stop just above the high off the breaking bar....I would still be in this trade.

Do you exit your trades right away when a bar closes above the BAT? or you wait for a break of the high of the breaking bar? What do you think about this?

Appreciate your time

Ben
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Old Sep 2, 2009 1:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Ben

Almost always on the close above. Sometimes I might place my stop at a point say above that bar, or above a round number if it is close by and let it go a bit more. A case like this I would use the close. Price is now coming into support where it is right now, and you are locking in a ton of profit, worth to just take your profit sometimes and go back to waiting in the bushes.

Awesome trade!

Mike
Hey Mike,

Thanks a lot for both answers. It makes sense to me

Ben
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Old Sep 2, 2009 2:31pm
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Just though about sharing this
Maybe I'm naive to think this way after the fact. But I have also traded bunch of them and almost all of them were winners.

Ben
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Old Sep 2, 2009 3:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manperm View Post
Ben,

In regards to your CADJPY chart, I see exactly what you're talking about for your entry. My question, though, regards your exit. In looking at the chart you posted, where would you take profit in that trade. Also, where would you place a stop loss? I'm just trying to continue learning.
Hey manperm,

Great question.

Usually I set targets on these intraday trades, but this situation is a bit different.
Firstly we are ridding the trend, secondly we are trading into a large range of recent space = meaning no RECENT heavy or clear support we are heading into. So in this situation I like trailing my stops.

First priority = get stop to BE or at least reduce risk as much as possible. After I'm is a free trade, I will maybe decide to let my trade more space to run.

My initial stop will be a few pips above the high of the BEOB.
I will place two orders:
1) Sell limit order on the round number.
2) sell stop on the break of the pin.
When the first order triggers I will cancel the second. I just do this in order to be sure I don't miss the trade if the retrace isn't strong enough.
I will recommend starting only with one sell stop at the break of the bar, and with time you will see what works for you.

How would I manage this trade?
See the bar low on the left which I have marked with gray? When price hits that bar, I'll just move my stop slightly a few pips above the round number.
A few bars latter we got another BEOB (EDIT: now I notice it is more a natural bar..or more a bullish pin bar. Any way I'll still put my stop there cause I won't let an opposite pin make me a full bar loss in this case. But it didn't even trigger). At that point I move my stop a few pips above the high of that bar. If that BEOB doesn't hold - I will prefer loosing a very small part of my position witch has left, instead of HOPING that the round number will hold - NO HOPING IN THIS BUSINESS, IT WILL KILL YOU MENTALLY! Now we are almost in a free trade.

Do you see the two red arrows on my chart? These are matching lows. The next bar breaks them. I move my stop slightly above the high of that bar. Now we are at BE = free trade + we broke a support area which now needs to act as resistance (PPZ).

Now it's just a question of feeling. I am in a free trade.
The next bar is a pin. Where did it's nose stalled? ohh easy question...our old support became new resistance

Now you can lock profit by moving your stop above that pin. That will be reasonable for me cause I also have the resistance that protects me, and also the bar itself which is a PA bar (BTW, can you see how our old support which came resistance rejected price so hard it became a pin? I call it COOL!!!!!)

Now I would just plot the BAT indicator and trail my stop with it because the movement of price is really slow....no long and sharp bearish bars.
If I would be getting these kind of bars, I would probably use the 2 bar stop method of Mike. Meaning trailing my stop above each new bar after is closes.

Hope this helps
If not, I'll come tomorrow to tray and help....now it's getting a bit late here and I already have a mini exam to be ready for tomorrow (damn teacher!!)
Good night

Ben
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Old Sep 3, 2009 1:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manperm View Post
Ben,

Thank you very much for your help. That was one of the most informative and well laid out examples I've been given. That kind of assistance seems to be a theme around here, which is why I've been watching this thread for so long. Every little piece of knowledge I gain is invaluable. I hope that I can soon offer information that may be deemed useful, as well!
Me sharing info? What can I share? I need to be shared. It is all over the place here. I didn't mention anything new. Read all James and Mike's posts. You are welcome by the way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PipGator View Post
Ben,

You mentioned in a recent post that a BEOB was larger than the last 43 bars. If you don't mind sharing, who did you reach that conclusion? If there is some feature in MetaTrader or some indicator you are using, I would love to have the same tool. Thanks, it's inspiring to see someone get a good grasp of this material so quickly.
I don't need any indicator for this. Just look at the chart - it is obvious

Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
(this isnt aimed at anyone specific - quoting SC because he gets it and put it so well)

Over the last week or three, I've seen alot of C, D, E and straight F trades posted. I get that the markets are in a bit of a sideways motion at the moment, but people are trying to trade crap.

Not just 'it isnt A++++, but it is still a great setup that will work again and again', but like absolute crap. Inside bars against the trend into big PPZs. Pin bars that look more like indecision bars and dont even protrude from the previous couple...
Great post.
Not sure...but I have the feeling it is a bit referring to me also (even if you didn't thought about me).

I just want to make this clear now.
I am no senior. I am maybe the newest here to forex. I am not the one that will teach you (new guys to this thread).

I read all jim's posts and he said many times - "you can improve your current system with PA and it will work great. No problem with that at all".

So I am fully aware that my way of trading is not even close to Jim's, and maybe many other seniors here. There is not only one way to trade.

Most of you call an A++ setup a PA bar with heavy confluence of fibs, EMA's, etc and at swing hig-low. You are trading reversals. It's fine, but still only one way of doing things. There in no only one right way.

I like to keep my charts as simple as I can, and trade with the direction of the trend of the same TF I am looking at. I like to enter on pullback and ride the trend as long as I can - trail my stops. So I use round numbers for this.
That means that naturally most of my trades won't be at extreme swings - yea, different from James, I know.

According to the big man's words, I am not doing anything wrong by this. I am using PA and knowledge of support, resistance - PPZs (and I gave many examples of how I use them).

So if you ask me how I trade, I will answer. But I am probably not trading the same style of reversals patterns at extreme swings.

Does it work? I can't tell that even if I really want or believe it. I am trading hardly 2 months. I am trading my demo. I will continue trading my demo or micro account during the several few coming months-years.
I am damn open to try, fail, improve, try, fail, improve, get better, better, better.....I have time. I am not saying this is working or not working after only one month.

I can assure you that because of my nature I will kill myself before I'll trade live a method that I don't have 100% confidence in.

So yea, my style is probably different from most seniors here. Maybe I'm dumb by not plotting these EMAs all over my screen. But I can't till say. My trades are diffinetly not others A+++ trades. I know.

Please don't follow my charts and post like I am a successful trader. And please understand that maybe my trades are different - but I stick to the big man. As long as I still use PA, PPZs and have a very very good reason for what I am doing, back testing and open to learn and improve I will get there eventually.

Just wanted to make it clear - I AM NOT TRADING WITH THE SAME THOUGHT PROCESS AS MOST OF THE SENIORS. take that int account. If what I am doing is wrong - I think I will be able to notice it and chance it. But now I do very good.

(Not directly to you Joel buddy have a great day bro).

Ben
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Old Sep 3, 2009 1:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Nothing C grade about any of your setups Benji.

I noticed the same thing as Joel, and it had nothing to do with you. Yours are clean and obvious and you're an example in keeping it simple.
Thank you Aaron.
I appreciate this.

Just wanted to make it clear that I am fully aware that I am trading under a different criteria of most seniors here...and that also our A+ trades are different. It just caught me when I read that sentence about swings and best location with confluence.
I will also prefer that new guys here will follow the seniors.

Ben
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Old Sep 3, 2009 3:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
We understand Ben. We like showing PA setups that have a higher probability of following through to the next level of S/R; i.e., swing highs/lows, less traffic, size compared to previous bars, etc.

What your doing is fantastic brother. And is no way near the wrong way of trading. Its very smart with reasons to back it up.

So, don't stop posting those great charts like the last one. The seniors love 'em! (Well, at least this one does. )

Jim
Thank you Jim. I'll

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 2:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
lol, complete opposite actually! your charts are clean, and clearly explain your thought process, entry, potential roadblocks and exit strategy in a logical manner.

Despite what you seem to think, people could do alot worse than emulate your style



As usual, Aaron reads my mind.



Absolutely. That would be awesome.
Hey Joel,

Sorry if it looked like a rant lol. You made a great post. It wasn't directtly to you - just wanted to make it clear in general.
The beauty about PA and PPZs - it can be plaid in many ways

Keep these posts coming

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 3:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
im sure benji would be in off 1.43 round no & rac in much earlier...
let's see how she plays out
Hey squeezy,

I didn't take it.

Here are my charts

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 4:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrugeno View Post
look at this...

Attachment 302793
Hey andrugeno,

That trend line is a bit uncomfortable for me.
For a trend line to be vailed IMO it needs at least 3 time to touch and reject price. Otherwise you can pull a line between every 2 points o your chart.

In addition you can see that price didn't reach it recently. That is more like two old very minor swing points. Check my last post for an example of trend lines.

Hope it helps.

Ben

PS - you have cropped the pair and TF. My guess from looking at your chart is EURGBP daily, right?

If you can see it, you may have a chance to get a pullback to the recent horizontal old resistance.
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Old Sep 4, 2009 4:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hmmmm
i got stopped @ be on this
now back to waiting mode
thnx for the input Ben
By the way, on the lower TFs there was a break out pattern, but not enough good for me.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 5:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
aha, something just triggered upstairs...just rushed to put my thoughts on paper now....
something u & rac said.....hmmmm
thnx ben
By the way - according to rac, the both of us got a "signal" to enter exactly at the same time, but I am sure our styles are way different this is the beauty.
Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 5:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
This is alot longer than I planned. So, here is the short version.

Behold, the power of the sports analogy:
I kick a football at a window. It doesnt break, and comes back to me.

Next, I kick it at the window again, but from a bit further back. The ball goes to the same point (ie, to the window) but by the time it gets there, it is already decelerating, because I kick like a girl....
Hey Joel,

This post made me think.

When we have a double top or bottom, with divergence - the example of the ball and window is very clear. Price stalled at resistance with high momentum (ball didn't break the window with full speed). So most likely price wouldn't break resistance with low momentum (lower speed of the ball won't break the window).

But on the other hand I have a conflict. We earlier got to the conclusion that the more a certain area gets tested - higher the odds it will break.

Does any one here ever tried to trade double tops and bottoms, based on divergence and PA alone? Sounds like a killer to me
James - that was a part of your thought process on your last trade? Have you been trading this way for a long time?

Maybe I can use it as a pullback location when I have no round numbers around...just thoughts (I still don't have anything to give me the push like the order flow does - but maybe it is still a good entry for many fresh traders).

By the way, when price is making higher highs and the oscillator lower highs...it becomes a bit different because if we make the sport analogy - the ball did break the window.
So basically when this happen, all I know is the fact that price is loosing momentum - AKA recently moving slower than in the past.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 6:17am
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Chart
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Old Sep 4, 2009 7:09am
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This is what I call "confluence" by my way
Breakout plus round number with the trend.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 7:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
nice one ben
im also short on this pair but got in a little late....looking back i saw much better entry @ 1.6985 area
are you planning on taking profit at 1.69 or waiting to see if we break it
good trade
u've got me thinking .....
HAHAHA now this trade is on the right track

That PZZ should act as resistance now. hehe I like this

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 7:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hey Benji,

Doesn't it seems like some traffic on the left (green box)?
Look at the image now.
I am aware of that support from the left. I had enough room to move my stop to BE before it gets there - and I also know that if it breaks that support, it will become resistance and I can enjoy a nice trade to hold - my target.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 7:43am
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Hey Nasir, I am aware of the support there.

Look how things line up nicely - this is not difficult.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 8:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
did you get in on this one ben
Cool trade squeezy
I didn't even see this chart.

Use the PPZs and round numbers in the area to manage it right.
No way you get out with a loose on this

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 8:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radsson View Post
CAD/JPY AT 85000 let's wait for some PA right?
Yep
But only bearish pitbull PA with the trend.
Take into account it's Friday.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 8:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Yep
But only bearish pitbull PA with the trend.
Take into account it's Friday.

Ben
ohh my goodness....crazy things happen on these levels withing seconds. Lets see how this closes.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 9:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim4x View Post
No, that's 'freaky friday' and the Non-Farm Report

It does somewhat mess with ones charts though eh!?
Tell you the trough - my understanding of news and reports is ZERO.
How do you know when these reports get out anyway?

All I see on my chart is a major round number lol.

I'm still in the trade

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 9:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Punky View Post
Hey Ben check this site out for new report times.

http://www.babypips.com/tools/

There might be something better out there but this is a start.

Hey Punky and 4X=0,

Not sure how much I'll use these things, but thanks for the input anyway

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 9:46am
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Quote:
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Hey Punky and 4X=0,

Not sure how much I'll use these things, but thanks for the input anyway

Ben
By the way, not sure what news mean to you, but that large news bar done exactly what I have predicted one hour earlier. Check my chart with the orange prediction of where price might go. It pulled back exactly to the level I have pointed out, and shot down to the last level, like my prediction line pointed out.

So I didn't get frightened when it pulled back. There will always be pullbacks to recent support that was broken and now should be resistance.
Now I am close to 5R in this trade and price continues to go in my favor. During the time I am writing this post, price broke the last support line in the area. I am no waiting for the pullback and hopefully shoot down.

Is this coincidence the news drove price as I thought by analyzing the charts? This is interesting.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 10:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
No this one hour has nothing to do with predictions checkout some previous times of NFP release.
ok it was the news that drove that 1H bar. But my point is that also if it was it. No matter what did it - price still stalled at the same support and resistance levels. It could also atall at other places.
Price still does what you expect no matter what get it to move.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 12:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
During the time I am writing this post, price broke the last support line in the area. I am no waiting for the pullback and hopefully shoot down.
Yep, it happened. ok so price pulled back, ans almost touched the resitance - rejected (shot down) and formed a pin bar.

I have moved my stop a few pips above this resistance and letting it run.

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 1:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Hey Benji,

Quick one on news:

James avoids it like the plague. Mike too.

The only thing I pay attention to is the fact that the first Friday of the month is NFP day. NFP tends to trigger big moves so I just stay clear of too much intraday action around that time. Dailies/weeklies I just trade as normal.

I used to ignore bars created by NFP because they weren't "real". Mike put me straight on that. He cares not how the bar was created. He just trades his charts as he sees them. He traded the big bars after last month's NFP and made bank.

The...
Hi Aaron,

I have read a few times that Mike and James ignore news, I think that it doesn't matter what drives the price, but it is more important how it has been drove. If I can trade regular without even noticing it, I don't need it.

Thanks for mentioning the NFP - I'll take it into account when I intraday trade on Fridays

BTW, I am still holding this trade. It just doesn't stop trending sharply. I am at 7R gain now, and there is plenty more room to go.
This is what I like about breakout trades, and entries on pullbacks that allow me to just ride the trend.
Most of the times when people trade reserval bars at extreme swings, they are naturally trading into traffic.
If I zoom into daily now, I can see that I am riding a huge trend with tons of space around.
I am planing to find a solid resistance point and hold this trade during the weekend. It started as an intraday trade with a 30 pip stop, but has the potential to turn into a long term trade.
Quote:
Great work Ben. Round numbers, breakout trading...are you sure you haven't been looking over Mike's shoulder while he trades?
shhh...I have a spy camera in his room

Ben
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Old Sep 4, 2009 6:23pm
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Quote:
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did you get in on this one ben
Well, this one did it's work eventually.
Not clear enough for me to take...to be honest.
Nice trade squeezy.

Ben
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Old Sep 5, 2009 2:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim4x View Post
Isn't it interesting how we can have different takes?
I had posted
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post3019874 that I liked the look of the GBPJPY daily 2 days ago, but Mike said it was such a no no for him.

I had already taken it anyway, but I still struggle to decide how to manage the stops.... I am used to shorter TF's so I find making and giving back 50+ pips very hard to do.... in the end I put a trailing stop on it and got stopped out with just 19pips.
I find the management the hardest part by far..... I have...
Personally, when I trade a daily chart, I manage it only on daily, and ONLY after the bar closes. That is simply because it helps me to prevent emotions. During the day there are tons of noise and up-and-down movements that can freak me out.
At the end of the day I can make a better decision.

Ben
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Old Sep 5, 2009 8:11am
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Hey seniors,

I would like to hear what do you think about this.
Sorry for the 30min chart. I have noticed it only after I boxed the areas, but it happens on all time frames.
This can allow me to get a nice trade based on a very small pip stop.

Ben
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Old Sep 5, 2009 10:55am
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Thank you Aaron for your comment. I appreciate it. You are giving me too much credit though..lol.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Benji you are going to laugh when you get to PF because there are a lot of ideas in there that you are coming up with all on your own. Well done.
Well...it's not completely my own idea. I saw Jim posts about placing a buy stop above a consolidation box, or sell stop below it, blindly. But I am not enough comfortable with playing these pure breakouts. So I have just took it a bit further and thought that maybe playing blind pullbacks will be a bit "safer"

Quote:
Boxes are a part of my trading, and it's just a nice visual variant of Jim's teaching that old support becomes resistance and vice versa. I've found they work especially well with price action on the 4H chart when we get stuck in those daily ranges.
Do you mean that you are playing raging boxes, meaning sell on the top and buy at the bottom? or breakouts between boxes?

Quote:
Nothing wrong with blind entries if you are extremely picky, looking for crucial areas with lots of supporting confluences like divergence, round numbers etc.
Yea. I have now tried to plot some round numbers, most of then do not line up with the boxes. But I have scrolled a bit back, and found that when they do line up with them, plus divergence they work pretty well even without any PA. To be honest, I have noticed that as deeper I go down with time frames, the PA means less and less. On the 5min chart there are many successful trades without PA.

Quote:
But it's not just a blind choice between 4H pinbars and blind entries. Why not look for price action at extremely low timeframes instead of your blind entries. 1H-5M pinbars for example, after you have identified your crucial area. You're doing great.
That is a great idea That can produce a very small stop for a relativity big move.

Quote:
Rather than shotgun a ton of trades at all timeframes looking for double digit returns, concentrate on building a base of a small handful of well executed trades a month for 3% or so. Let that become your comfortable baseline.
This month just began and I am up to 20%-30% net profit, depending on my last trade from yesterday which I didn't yet closed. This seems to be a bit unrealistic... I am using 2% risk on every trade. But it it's being a smarty on demo...maybe I must reduce it to 1%.
My GBPCHF 7R trade gave me alone 14% profit.


Quote:
Benji's going about things the right way IMO as someone not much further down the line than him. He's demoing demoing demoing and trying out his styles and theories.
Very true. Just to make it clear - all my trades I ever had are on demo.

---------------------

Ok so basically I have the main idea of how to play these. I need to spend a bit more time to see how I am going to spot the best entries. If it will be too much similar to what I am doing now with the round numbers, maybe I will just leave it.

Thanks again Aaron

Ben

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Old Sep 5, 2009 11:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eclipse View Post
Oct. 09 Natural Gas Future
Hey Eclipse,

I can't see the whole chart, but from here it seems like trading against a very sharp move down. It can be also just a pause bar, rather than a reserval bar IMO.

I also would like to see the bar itself much bigger, or at least the close above the previous bar - which indicates strength. It failed to do that.

Just my 2 cents..

Ben
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Old Sep 5, 2009 12:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Hey Ben.....
Again you are noticing ways to use pa.. awesome.
as you get better & more practised with pa you might not call them blind entries anymore..

The euro is my favorite pair to trade & so I know it well.....
Hey Jeff,

It is very cool I can get all these advices from you and Aaron, as people which are doing it for years and know what works. I highly appreciate that

Quote:
A fave of mine will be a quick double bottom/top with divergence & pa like a pin or outside bar


This is exactly what I was speaking about here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=43094

I'm glad you can confirm that it really works well. I have noticed it several times also. Combining these boxes, round numbers, double top-bottom, divergence and PA is a real confluence. That confluence may be rare, but if I will do it on the 5min-15min, I think I''l get a few really good opportunities per month if I'll be picky with them. Drawing the patterns on 1H and entering on 5min has a really god potential for a relatively large move as well.

Just a question. Do you use the minor round numbers like 50 and 00 when you trade the 5min? or the larger round numbers like i do - 500 and 000 ?
I think that because the 5min-15min are really low, the minor numbers can do the job good enough as well...need to check it out.



Quote:
****** Please anyone reading this... dont ever enter any trade blind......no matter what tf you use.
Have your rules for your strategies & follow them.. If you are not sure about what you are doing... dont do it....******
I am also not so comfortable with the idea of blind entries. Just got to think about it after I saw James does it. If we have the advantage of knowing PA, why do we need to bother ourselves with blind entries?

Quote:
As you are picking up Ben.. location is the most important part of all this.. With pa to back up a solid location our probability for a money making trade go up.... not garenteed but improve...

As you have done, find your likely areas then just wait for the trade to come to you...
You are doing great Ben..you are finding & picking the details in only months what took me years to believe in ....
keep it up mate..
Thanks bro it all comes from you guys, sharing your experience.

Ben
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Old Sep 5, 2009 1:26pm
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Default The basics of the new method

ok so I have began my back testing on this, and wanted to bring one example of how my though process is going currently.
I have just combined all the factors Aaron and Jeff pointed out, and found this setup. The divergence is missing, but it still worked (divergence is just a momentum indicator, so no reason it won't work without it - thanks to Joel).

Just to be clear. All the idea is to catch large moves with a small pip stop. So even if I'll get a supper low win rate I'll be in profit.
Because the win rate is important to me mentally - I will try and trade these only after I am in profit for the current month, and I'll be super super picky with those. On the 5min I know there can be hundreds of setups every month...it can be dangerous. It may take time to get used to this TF

I will appreciate any comments.

Ben
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Old Sep 5, 2009 2:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
thats exactly what i mean...
In fact.. I posted both those pins in my journal in the pf...
First was off a 50, the 2nd @ 1.4300

look at obvious they are... if that was a daily chart would you hesitate????

We can still be picky on the 5m.. I am.. i had only 4 or 5 i think this week.

I remember the one @ 1.43 because it was near the end of the us session..
so it was the euro just settling near a 00 for overnight which it does alot.

I think I was talking to seeking about it..in the pf....
hehehe sounds great means I'm on the right track with this if you took that pin as well.

By the way, do you limit this TF for specific seasons? which?

Thanks for sharing buddy

Ben
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Old Sep 5, 2009 2:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
If i understand you correctly, No I dont limit myself to 5m tf..

My main charts are 4hr.. I check daily charts daily & weekly charts weekly for trades. too.

I have 3 strategies that I use.
One.. is based on the daily tf.
2.. is based on the 4hr with entries sometimes on the 1hr.. (intraday)
3.. is the 5m with strict targets.

I trade full time so I have the time to do all this.. If I had a full time job I would only stick to daily & maybe the 4hr.
I think I didn't ask clear enough

I mean, do you trade the 5min chart only during London season? Are there any certain hours during the day that you will never enter a new trade because lack of activity or some thing like that (night)?

Ben
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Old Sep 5, 2009 3:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Oh.. sorry.

I trade the US session.. I am asleep for the euro open....
I get back home around the time you start trading, nice.

So basically I only need to be more conservative during the Asian seasson.

Thanks for the reply Jeff

Ben
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Old Sep 6, 2009 12:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
I'm no senior Ben. I've only been doing it a little longer than you....

I play both with boxes. There's no magic to them. They are just SR levels. A second hit at the top of a box with PA is basically just PA at a double top. A retest after breaking out of a box is also just a breakout and pullback trade. It's all just different ways of looking at it.

Calling it a box is a way of defining the range so that you can play good PA at either end of the "box" and also take advantage of breakouts and pullbacks. But essentially it's just another way...
Hey Aaron, you are right about the boxes.

I am not planing to start trading a real account after an exact amount of demoing months. I will do that when I feel ready. In the meantime I'm just saving money and practicing.
It is more like a journey than a "couple of study months". So I am just making sure I enjoy what I do

When I will open the real account, I will make sure I am making my way down from the higher TFs again.

Thank you for the advice

Ben
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Old Sep 6, 2009 1:16pm
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Default Second example

Just scrolled back on the 4H chart and found this within one minute.

Ben
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Old Sep 7, 2009 7:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
hey Ben,
Its all pa & s/r....
dont get caught up in boxes.. They look good but they are just more shit on the chart.

You are allready doing well.. but i feel you are now getting caught up in the spiral of this is easy... now I will find something even better & easier..

good luck.. but I am here to tell you its a road ill travelled..

you have the basics & thats all you need.. believe me..

This stuff is easy as long as we stick to what is easy......

cheers
Jeff
Yea I have thought to my self something similar yesterday.
I already have things that work for me good enough...

In addition, I barely have time these days to think about trading. Next week I won't even be at home (going out with school for a one week camp).
So my thought process isn't focused and clear.

I also feel like these boxes are giving me an illusion feeling, because it is just S&R like you have said.

For now I'll just stick to the daily and weekly. When I'm at home and have time to think about charts, I'll open the 1H-4H.

Routine life need to continue

Thanks Jeff,

Ben
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Old Sep 7, 2009 7:56am
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Default Update

It retraced a bit during my time at school. Didn't stop me out.
Now I have even more confidence in this to be a longer term move

Hope everyone is doing well

Ben
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Old Sep 7, 2009 8:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Ben,

Just don't mark the boxes off on the charts or view it as anything different or separate. It's simply where old support turned into resistance and vice versa. And a way of range trading using PPZs. It's no different to the classic PA at SR levels we teach here. I think where you might come unstuck is if you view "box trading" as a completely different style.

Think of it this way. Price approaches your double/triple top level. It's a clear PPZ. You're either going to get good price action for a reversal at this key level ("a box trade")...
Yea, the ides will always remain the same. PA with S$R - only different styles of doing it.

Like you say, it's trading breakouts and reversals, which I have other and more comfortable ways (for me) to do that.

This way of thinking can be better for more ranging pairs.
But for now I will probably just focus on what I'm already doing.

Thanks for the input Aaron. Appreciated as always

Ben
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Old Sep 7, 2009 12:36pm
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This day is really slow...
Did anyone take the AUDUSD breakout pattern from Friday? It eventually started moving today with that large DBLHC

Ben
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Old Sep 7, 2009 1:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
yeah, really slow
was waitin for a pullback to .85 but nothin
the same thing with nu ...no pullback then pa
Yea..it was tricky. The 0.85000 round number is right above the resistance trend line of the pattern.
When price broke that number without retracing immediately, I knew it may never pullback to the trend line (it will act as a strong support, diffenetly when the trend is up).
So I have just plaid the pullback to the round number, and placed a bit large stop in case it will eventually retrace...
In addition, the bar that broke the round number is a very large 4H BUOB which closed above the number (although I wouldn't be playing it if there was no break out pattern).
Lets see what happens

Ben
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Old Sep 7, 2009 2:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
well, im still patiently waiting for a pullback to that area .....and if it doesnt no problem
quick question, tell me how you avoid fakeouts.....
i closed my eurcad short @ 1.55 area but about to reenter short, check ur daily & 1hr chart.....
If a pullback will occur and I will get stopped out, I won't enter again. For me that will mean that there isn't enough momentum - you can easily get stuck with the mess price is making now above the number plus the number itself that can be a strong resistance factor. To be honest, that is a thing that got me thinking about skipping this trade if the pullback will be to the trend line. Think about it logically - if price failed to successfully break the round number first, it can happen again. Remember that all the previous momentum won't be there in the second time. Why? because that area was a very very interesting area that got tested and rejected many time, which caused an orderflow around it (just look at the giant BUOB that broke it). Now that the order flow was cleaned up, it will be even harder to break the new resistance and major round number. I'll upload charts of this trade maybe latter or tomorrow when I have time.

False breakouts -I just try to get the best patterns and the best PA. I look for any resistance/support factor that can stop me a few pips after the break, like: round numbers, historical PPZs, etc.
The odds for false signals in breakout trades are quite high. That is the reason it is important to be able to hold the successful ones as long as possible. And this is exactly the reason why I give my trades a lot of space after I move my stop to BE (Just look at my last breakout trades...the current one is about 9R and still running until the turn will be enough obvious to take me out).
In addition, that is the reason trading these patterns into space, and WITH THE TREND is very very very important for me. Once you caught your sit on an established trend with a small stop - all you need to do, is to give your trade space, and the trend will take care of you. That is what I do, and till now quite good.

Hope this helps buddy.

Ben
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Old Sep 7, 2009 4:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
yeah thnx Ben
it does help...



yeah! i hav it marked on my charts(the bar lows) ...thnx
Hey squeezy,

Here you go...
I'll now move my stop a few pips below the round number. Good chance it will hit it and bounce again, so I am ready to take a very small lose and see what happens.
The main trend is up, and the 0.85000 is an historic key PPZ level.

Ben
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Old Sep 8, 2009 7:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zoli View Post
Cool this one Ben!

Thank you for sharing so others, like me, can learn from it (applies to all your posts).

thx
Hey zoli,

Thanks for your kind words
James and Mike are giving so much for free...so if my posts can help someone I'm glad.

Just this question: Once this 8500 is broken as it is, it does have a high potential to act as support from now on, hasnt it?
Yep

Umm...not so cool trade...it was pretty stuck yesterday.
But now it's cool stop at BE.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Go, Ben, Go.

Jim
Hey there buddy

Ben
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Old Sep 8, 2009 8:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hey Ben, did u get any of this....lol
Hey squeezy,

I was all day at school...so missed it

Check out the first example chart on this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=42465
it was pending on my watch list for a long time now.

Great trade mate

Ben
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Old Sep 8, 2009 8:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Any body looking for this pullback.
Hey bro,

Seems like many long term pending patterns on my list broke today.

I saw several people here trying to trade that consolidation box during the week - hope none of them loosed. I bet you that this area killed many traders this month LOL..

There was no pullback, so I'm not sure if I will take it if it will retrace now. I am interested to see a nice pin or BUOB off that round number. There will be too much traffic to pass if we will retrace too deep.

Ben
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Old Sep 8, 2009 9:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nonick View Post
hi squeezy,
what was your PA signal to sell UC? Was it just a normal sell stop? i'm asking because it doesn't look like there was a proper pullback after that breakout and there wasn't any PA i'd take.

thanks,
nonick
Hey nonick,

I agree with you on this. I took Mike's advice about going only one TF lower in order to spot the PA bar. So no PA on daily and 4H. Only a pinish-natural bar on the 1H.

Ben
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Old Sep 9, 2009 10:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Looking good on the 4 hour BEOB Aud/Usd, judith. Nice divergence on the Daily to back it up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hey nonick, i saw this but didnt like it one bit...way to close to 79 round no
i took audusd beob instead but lacking momentum...stalled at the bar high in blue and reversed....atleast ive reduced my risk to half...
funny thing is that ive been long eu 1.43 since yday
lets see how it plays out...im hiding just above the round no
Hey!!!!!
Watch where you are going!!!
Please don't trade against me you will may get hurt

Ben
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Old Sep 9, 2009 10:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
I will be last person to bet it.



Yeah going back to the Trend line from here could mess things up. But 1.4450 could serve us i think.
Hey buddy,

Missed this post yesterday. It was a long day for me. Barely had time to look at my charts.

So as I look at my charts now, there was no PA to confirm the move long. But no surprise about where and why price moved to

Ben
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Old Sep 9, 2009 11:16am
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Default Trades...

Geez...
I happens to me all week long. I don't have time to watch charts (except of Friday), and when I am updating myself with what's going on...I see some setups and I say to myself "no chances in the world I wouldn't pull the trigger on this one if I was here when it occurred...

BTW, my EURAUD was stopped out for 6.3R

Ben
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Old Sep 10, 2009 2:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Nice one Ben.

Are you keeping your stops at break even? How are you managing this trade? Just curious. Looks like it could go to the moon.

Jim
Hey bro,

Well, Here are the charts
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Old Sep 10, 2009 2:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I can't see my regular charts right now , but it's in the "A" catagory in my book.
LOL

"A" category?

You are brave..

I don't even consider this one...this traffic is too much alone. But you are probably making your money out of it..like you know to do

Did you eventually enter it? If yes, I guess you took full profit at my first line, right?

Ben
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Old Sep 10, 2009 3:19pm
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Chart
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Old Sep 10, 2009 4:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Just posting a trade I took this morning.

definitely not the greatest looking pin bar....
HAHAHA cool. I had just time to enter this one in the morning
But did it only based on the 1H IB and most important - the major round number.

Ben
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Old Sep 10, 2009 4:18pm
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Potential breakout trade.
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Old Sep 10, 2009 4:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
hey benji isn't this a CT? you say that you trade only with the trend
LOL, I didn't take it. Sorry if I confused anybody. Just saw that big move after a B or C BUOB at swing low and thought to myself that it will be nice to upload lol. Also if I would saw it when occurred, I wouldn't take it.

Ben
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Old Sep 10, 2009 4:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
do you think that I'm overcomplicate all this stuff

It is so damm hard this road guys, I have so many upside and downside in my current learning stage and I know that will be more because I whant to study more.

thanks in advance!
Orderflow will mostly build up around:

1) major round numbers.
2) Areas which got tested and rejected many times.
3) Extreme area which rejected price very strong and far. Many trade them as "scalp" lines.

I use it basically around round numbers with a clear PA and location (trend, double top or bottom, pullback).

IMO nothing should be complicated. Just try Spot pitbull PA bars on these levels, with room to trade (no close heavy traffic), and see where it goes.You can scroll back on your charts and look for these areas.

Hope this helps

Ben
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Old Sep 10, 2009 5:14pm
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HAHAHA cool. I had just time to enter this one in the morning
But did it only based on the 1H IB and most important - the major round number.

Ben
ooops! I's 4R, not 8R lol.
Just correcting myself in case someone was wondering
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Old Sep 10, 2009 5:39pm
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Quote:
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here is one for Ben..

Aj buob on 4hr.. Wait for pullback to round number..
Hey buddy

Umm...I don't feel really comfortable with this setup. Reasons on the chart.

Ben
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Old Sep 10, 2009 6:53pm
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thats fine..
It went right to the first area. (as you have marked on your chart). this is where I went to break even..79.25
it may work or may not. but i wont loose...

I agree that you would want a better location for a longer term trade. but these setups work in many places.. as long as traders realise where thay are & protect themselves accordingly.
Yea that's right. It is also possible to trade B setups and just take full profit or BE at the first trouble area. What is important here is doing some thing after it stalls where you predicted and not taking a full bar lose.
I knew you will manage it good

Generally I look for more long moves...so I prefer trading into space, and with the trend. Then I can allow myself giving a trade a bit more space.

Ben
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Old Sep 11, 2009 5:37am
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Watching this
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Old Sep 11, 2009 6:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Whats up Ben,

Here is chart of EURAUD you posted while ago.

You said you would not have taken this trade cause of traffic.

I agree that it was to be managed tightly But i think it was not so dens to leave the trade entirely .

Or maybe you are more picky with them.

Just curious.

Edit:

Sorry here's your chart.
Hey Nasir,

I entered it on my testing account, as apart of my IBs testing. When I test, I collect data from all sorts of different situations. That's why I have entered. But in general I do not feel so much confidence in this small bar to create a reserval. The main factor for the reserval was with no doubt the round number IMO.

By the way, I would look for a closer "1st trouble area" -I have marked it on my chart below.

Ben
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Old Sep 11, 2009 6:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Classic Ben trade : 4 hour Gbp/Usd, BUOB retrace off a round number, with the trend.

It didn't hurt that the 1.6600 was a strong Daily resistence level that could now be a strong support level.
Yep, that BUOB engulfs almost 6 previous bars, and of a major round number

Just take note I use only the majors, so the stop entry at the break of the high would trigger the trade.

By the way, at this point 80% of the position must be off the table (stop below the bunch of bar lows) Or if I want to give it more space, I would hide the stop below your orange under the pin.

Ben
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Old Sep 11, 2009 7:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by verno View Post
I guess your view might be that shorting the PB after the BUOB is not great risk reward?
I know I'm not Jarroo, but...going short is trading into ton of traffic and against the recent trend. (On my feed there is no PB either, but nevermind).

The question is...what supports your trade?

Ben
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Old Sep 11, 2009 7:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxlan View Post
Hey benji would this be a kind of setup you are usually searching for? : an uptrend, price passed a round number and made a BUOB
Basically yes.
But take note that I use only major round numbers, trade into space, pick good bars, and want to see the rejection of the round number.

This bar really isn't showing me what I want. It didn't touch the round number.

Usually you will see a temporary consolidation around the round number (all shorts of orders trigger). So I like to see big bars which engulf all the range, or at least several bars.

I want to see it tensing one side of the round number, and get rejected very fast so it closes on the other side of the round number plus above or below the recent rage. This kind of bar shows me strength.
Then I also have the trend which supports me, and I'm trading into a "clean" area, which means that most likely price will go far enough before retracing, so I can move my stop to BE quickly.

The bar on your chart is not even touching the round number.

ok to be honest I have no made of steal rules. I can't say in general what is a good setup. I need to look at every setup separately and see if I can read through it what's going in the market, and have a good plan. I think that this is the thing that makes many traders stuck. They try to look at things like robots. Common sense and a clear mind is the most important thing IMO.

Hope this helps a bit

Ben
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  #43538  
Old Sep 11, 2009 7:54am
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Old Sep 11, 2009 8:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shermenator View Post
lol ...make an analysis and stick it . In trading you will always find reasons why to bet money and why not go in as well as why you should of stay in the trade after it looked bad or why you should of gotten out earlier lol. Make a plan and stick to it...its not about each trade that makes you a good trader . In trading all that matters is knowing your hit rate and having...
Maybe I'm wrong, but I tend to disagree with you.
IMO, not asking yourself why a particular trade was a loser or winner, why you exited too early, too late, etc, is a bad habit.

If you are just trading like a robot and not asking yourself these questions, how can you get better? How can you spot your weaknesses and improve them?
I think there is always something new to learn. I always ask my self these questions.

Just my opinion of course...no offense.

Ben
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Old Sep 11, 2009 11:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hey benji check GBPJPY m30.
Here it is.
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  #43561  
Old Sep 11, 2009 12:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Ahhhh sorry to bother you Bro.

Its not a Big Round Number. But for M30 it could do i guess?
No problem mate.
I use only the majors, no matter what TF it is. Going to the smaller numbers ones can make you over trade - even if they work good as well.

Ben
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  #43581  
Old Sep 11, 2009 2:37pm
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Hey Ben i think you have double that Demo account?
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  #43582  
Old Sep 11, 2009 2:41pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
Is anyone watching this? It looks like a pretty clear breakout pattern. Location looks good, ppz at round number 70.00, 150ema and a bunch of fibs also line up with 70.00 to the long side. The weekly trend is up.

Here are the 2 scenarios which I'm looking at. I'm liking the heavy confluence at 70 and I'd like to see a breakout to the upside and a pullback to 70.

What do you guys think?
I like it. But only from looking at it I have a feeling of a very small move after the break...there is no clear trend and this thing chops like a beast.

Ben
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Old Sep 11, 2009 3:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CkM8 View Post
Chart on GBP/USD
Can you please explain the reason of this being a good short setup? All I see is price hitting a ret level..nothing more..even not PA bar.

Just trying to understand rac's way of thinking

Ben
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  #43588  
Old Sep 11, 2009 4:10pm
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Originally Posted by CkM8 View Post
As far as I know it is based on identifying the 61.8% retracement on a large time frame (like Daily or 4hr) and looking for PA on lower time frames.

I've had really good results with it
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
It will make you lose your hair... be verrry careful.... (Makes you think about that crystal ball everyone talks about.)

Of course before anyone gets themselves into some kind of foaming lather, and blindly jumps on a short, look at the landscape. There is a HUGE MASS of bar highs right below going back to the beginning of June.

Of course no one knows what will happen, but the upside potential is very nice. The short side is full of slop and chop. I'd sure love some north bound PA.
Thanks for your responses.

I just look at this chart and I see so much reasons why not going short, and no reason why yes going short lol.

I rather not get into it too much...everyone is free to trade as he wish

Ben
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Old Sep 11, 2009 4:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Thanks for your responses.

I just look at this chart and I see so much reasons why not going short, and no reason why yes going short lol.

I rather not get into it too much...everyone is free to trade as he wish

Ben
This is what I basically mean..
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Old Sep 11, 2009 4:57pm
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Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Yep.

here is what these big consolidation areas are starting to mean to me.

Big longer term moves.
Yea, usually there will be a strong momentum break after these squeezed areas.

By the way, I don't even use fibs...so basing a trade only on them is a bit strange feeling for me lol.

Ben
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Old Sep 12, 2009 4:53pm
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Here it is.
Hey guys,

I was going through rac's posts recently. When Nasir asked me to look at the 30 min GBPJPY, I have noticed a nice pattern (as far as I know) of rac's style...so I gave it a shot.

He trades blind entries based on PPZs and other factors as far as I know.
I entered on a blind buy order on the lower line. Moved my stop to BE on the second line. Exited around the last line. I get it interesting that the entry and exit were almost on the pip (although it may push up even more).
I think the chart is talking by itself...the PPZs are clear.

My question to the people here which are familiar with rac's style is - where would he be setting his initial stop loss in this case?

By the way, I won't be here all the next week, so have a great trading week folks

Ben

PS - By the way, in this case it was too late for a limit order, so I entered using a market order...but just for the example...it suppose to be a limit order.
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Old Sep 12, 2009 5:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
With a 61.8 Fib level confluencing with that PPZ it would be a potential Rac style trade. He uses pretty tight stop losses on his setups, 30-20pips.
Yep. Seems that also the 50 ret lines up with my BE point. Thanks Jarroo.

So basically the stop has nothing to do with S/R, or something in these cases? only 20-30 pips automatically?

Ben
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Old Sep 12, 2009 6:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I not sure totally on his stop loss placement inrelation to S/R, but just to keep his losses small if they occurr.

With all confluencing tools, like Fib levels, they really mean nothing by themselves in the sense of how we use them here. They really need to have another level or tool to have synergic strength. There is a S/R level lining up with the 50 ret that made your B/E look real good, Ben.
I think that if being picky with these....trading blinds only based on SR can make good money on any TF. This will be my next project

I know that many times fibs and moving averages will line up, but I get it hard using them.
Fibs - you can pull them from million different locations on one chart.
Moving averages - I see how Jim's EMAs act great as SR, but still can't feel comfortable with it. I am always thinking logically - "what the hell past average of price has to do with rejecting price?!?!". I just can't see any logic in the world using them. Maybe it would make sense if there is only one kind of period moving average which all traders would be looking at...but there are tons of them. I have tried plotting many different periods, and there are many that reject price.
It's like saying that if price moved lower faster in past average than currently - than it will bounce.

I am by no means trying to pick on most of the traders here which use moving averages. Really, I don't. I respect all of them.
I just can't get it into my head and feel comfortable. I feel dumb when doing it.

I will really thank everyone which can try and explain me the logic of using them.

Jarroo, not directly to you brother I just found that rac is using fibs and moving averages...

Ben
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Old Sep 12, 2009 7:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Not sure why they work either. I do like the longer term MAs like Jim.

But the main point is that when they come together at a PPZ level they can add alot of strength to a PA setup.

The 1.5800 PPZ level on the Daily Eur/Cad is a good example. The 1.5800 is covered with Fib levels and long term MAs; 365ema,150ema,(I guess you could add the 200ema, 250 ems, and 324 ema , but that would look a lttle messy. lol) The point is that its a heavily confluenced area for a Rac type trade or PA. Inside Bar in blue. PB in green.
Yep, I understand that when you have several factors which reject price - they are more powerful when you get them all together at the same place.

But I do not understand why the certain factor (moving average) is rejecting price.

- Price action shows what price is recently doing (being rejected).
- Round numbers are order flow and interest areas. You may find new traders that will enter at this level against the current move - reject price.
- PPZS (support and resistance) areas are where traders look to enter by masses.
- divergence presents momentum (this isn't a rejecting factor - but a useful tool with sense behind it).

These factors are making the rejection of price. People look at these factors by masses and act the same. You can benefit by knowing what other humans are doing.

Why does average of old data rejects price? anyone looking at the same moving average and make their decisions based on the same moving average? No.
What causes the rejection of price? Maybe it's the nature of these to line up with PPZs, but aren't the factor of the rejection by themselves?

These are questions I MUST ask myself before risking real money based on these tools.

Fibs are making more sense because many traders are looking at them. But I still don't like the fact you can see tons of different ways to look at them. In addition, every additional thing on my chart makes me unfocused and messes my mined.

Ben
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Old Sep 17, 2009 11:46am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
AUDUSD
Hey everyone,

I wasn't here almost for a week now. Just thought to update about this trade.

Hope everyone had a great week

Ben
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Old Sep 17, 2009 12:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
AUDUSD price then: 0.8640
AUDUSD price now: +/-0.8569 (IBFX Mt4)

price dropped down as expected, where expected.
hopefully, benji cashed in on this particular trade.

Let's see if audusd/the majors will drop further.
Hey SC,

I saw your other post last week...I didn't exit. Look back on my updates for this trade and you will find my plan and way of thinking I was planned all from the beginning - look for my post which answering Jarroo how do I manage this trade.
The last one is right above

Ben
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Old Sep 17, 2009 12:58pm
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Hey SC,

I saw your other post last week...I didn't exit. Look back on my updates for this trade and you will find my plan and way of thinking I was planned all from the beginning - look for my post which answering Jarroo how do I manage this trade.
The last one is right above

Ben
Here it is mate: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=43461

Ben
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Old Sep 17, 2009 3:02pm
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Interesting area. I'm considering a quick though reserval trade.
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Old Sep 17, 2009 3:20pm
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Someone with me in this?

Different entry strategy this time.

Ben
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Old Sep 17, 2009 3:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
benji sometimes I feel like I am reading my own posts LOL

Keep at it

Mike
Thanks master

These are your posts. I am just following you man

Ben
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Old Sep 17, 2009 5:13pm
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Quote:
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It's looking like the end of that run up on the cad/jpy from three days ago and now the run back down to the 84 area. Easy money. Who didn't see it ending there? Cluttered up chart but it serves a purpose for me.
Hey bro, what's up?

IMO the 84 can be a bit hard. I'm looking at this as well.

Ben
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Old Sep 17, 2009 5:54pm
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Quote:
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Hey Ben what's happenin man?...
I think there is a quite good chance you will hit the 85. In this case you can just take full profit, or let a free trade run - according to your feeling.
I just don't like trading against the recent move without a very obvious PPZ supporting me. But you are making your money

The pound it too choppy for me lol. Every move must be managed very toughly on that pair IMO.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 4:44am
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Default Uptades on my charts from yesterday plus new ones...

.
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Old Sep 18, 2009 4:51am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
I've got to agree with mike on where you've gotten to.

For someone who hasn't been posting much till lately , your charts are good to check out. You post wedges and so on, ...for me to come along and check out.

You and a couple of others make for our own little personal pattern EAs.
Thank you bundy and the others

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 5:01am
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A rac trade?

Edit: ignore the other trade on my chart.
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Old Sep 18, 2009 5:23am
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I'm short on this as well Benji. A nice PB on the 4H closed on my charts 15 mins ago
Yea I saw that 4H bar in the way to close as a great looking pin, much more powerful than the 1H. But I entered early on the 1H pin in purpose to get a smaller stop (better R:R)

Now I have even more confidence in this trade after this 4H pin. Just remember that trading reversals is natural trading into traffic...so manage it accordingly.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 5:50am
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Originally Posted by Pirabuji View Post
Hi Benji,

Are you playing these break outs blindly with no price action confirmation? I can't see any PA on the GBPCHF chart or EURCAD chart. Or did you enter based on PA from a lower time frame?
All I do in this current stage of my trading is testing. So I also try different things.

This time there was a pinish BEOB off the round number on a lower TF, but the previous bar lows where too close. So I have just plaid a blind break of the previous low.

The location is more important than the last bar IMO. Maybe in the future I'll start playing blind breakouts. Step by step though.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 9:04am
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Originally Posted by forexlife View Post
hi ben, i just thought post a E/G charts but just saw yours. also i took this short. 0.9 area, and nice H4 pinbar and 'big' space? let's see.
This ended as a lose for me. Price stalled at the first trouble area and turned. By that time I have moved my stop a few pips above the round number and took a lose of 0.6R (1.2% of my account).
This is why I damn hate reversals. A round number + PPZ + huge divergence + space + great pin bar wasn't enough to make price turn down. Look what a sharp trend up. This trade only make my point about trading with the trend brighter.

Maybe if my stop was still on the top of the pin's high I would still be in this trade....but I won't take a full bar lose on this.

Lost 1.2%...never mind...I also made other 8% profit on other trades today, so I'm fine Good lesson though.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 9:45am
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Hey bro, what's up?

IMO the 84 can be a bit hard. I'm looking at this as well.

Ben
Hey Mike, seems like it stalled around the 85 like we thought.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 10:00am
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A rac trade?

Edit: ignore the other trade on my chart.
It worked for sure.
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Old Sep 18, 2009 10:54am
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Ben..I didnt want to say anything when you posted this trade cause i knew this would happen..

Its done to me before as well so dont worry about it.. When this pair moves like it has been.. I stand aside.. dont get in the way..on moves like this I prefer a solid pa on the daily to stop the move or at least pause it..

I know 90 is a nice round number but have a look just above at 91-91.50. on the weekly.
Yep. I said many times before that it's hard trading against sharp moves, and I did it myself

By the way, it makes me think. Divergence used on trend reversals is quite reductions. It comperes the speed of past moves to the speed of the recent move. But it's only a ratio. In this case there was divergence because the past move was FASTER. But it doesn't measures the speed itself. I mean, look at the chart, what a sharp move. Because it was a bit sharper in the past it means that there is a bearish sign? IMO NO!

Now let say the oscillator makes matching highs, and price makes an higher high. That actually tells me that the speed of the move is the same. Of cause that price made an higher high - the trend is up - but the speed is still the same.
So I can't see how there is any kind of bearish sign when MACD makes matching highs and price higher high. The people that say that, actually say that the speed of the move needs to get faster in order that there will be no divergence (bearish sign). LOL!!! where is the sense here? What is the connection between the direction of the move price is making, and the speed, and the momentum?
Sorry if my explanation was bad, please let me know if it was clear.
I am starting to think that any king of "indicator" is a complete BS.

I can still understand the idea of double tops|bottoms with div. That was explained well by Joel - if the speed was fast in the fast and didn't break a certain spot, most likely a slower speed won't break THE SAME SPOT.

But I honestly can't see any sense in using divergence on trends. Please think about it for a moment. Does price needs to keep going faster forever in order to not get a reversal signal? Can't the speed stay the same while price moves to one direction?

By the way, quite funny...after that post, a BUOB formed off the round number (not a great one). I remember Jim post about playing a break of tow matching highs|lows during a very sharp trend can be a good continuation trade. So I bought the break (on my other demo account|testing account) and I'm already up to almost 2R.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 11:16am
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Yep. I said many times before that it's hard trading against sharp moves, and I did it myself

By the way, it makes me think. Divergence used on trend reversals is quite reductions. It comperes the speed of past moves to the speed of the recent move. But it's only a ratio. In this case there was divergence because the past move was FASTER. But it doesn't measures the speed itself. I mean, look at the chart, what a sharp move. Because it was a bit sharper in the past it means that there is a bearish sign? IMO NO!

Now let say the oscillator...
Here is an example.
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Old Sep 18, 2009 11:36am
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Good Morning everyone....
Hey Josh,

Thanks for sharing this. I think many appreciate it, and so am I. IMO there is nothing to say about the setup or your exit strategy at all.
I can see more the effect of psychology involved here. Psychology is exactly all the thoughts which passed in your head while deciding to move your target. IMO there are many ways to successfully trade. But only if you can control your self you can do it.

To be honest, it's a bit strange for me. I do not have certain rules. I mean, I enter trades when I think there is an enough good reason to do so, and I exit trades mostly by trailing stops. If I set targets, I still trail my stops all the way to the target. So I use more common sense than rules.

By the way, 9 months is a long time. I'm sure you know what you are talking about from experience.

Take care and thanks again for sharing.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 12:53pm
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Those were easy passes.

The bars are small, tiny, Luxembourg small bars. No conviction.
Quote:
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Just a tip, when you play divergence trades such as RSI / MACD or whatever the LONGER the divergence is apart the LESS chance you have of it working, that is how I use some of the TIME crap I do when I trade. SO if you have 5 bars that make a divergence vs 100 bars well that 5 bars has a better odds MOST of the time because once you go so far back anything can make a divergence. Look at this chart.

Now are these 100% textbook divergence trades? Nope but who cares nothing is exact in the market and the only reason I am here is to make money...
Thank you guys for the comment. But unfortunately you are missing my point. At this stage I do not care about what works ant what not. I didn't even look if the div worked on my example chart, I just searched for a double MACD tops and a higher price top.

The thing that I want to know is the reason, sense, logic, factors for this to work. I want to know why. I can't see any sense. It's the same with the moving averages post I had last week, and Jarroo's reply. I want to know why these tools work.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 12:54pm
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I think you drew your fibs upside down






But you got the gist of it down.
The direction of the fibs doesn't matter. The 50% will always be in the middle

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 12:56pm
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Old Sep 18, 2009 1:12pm
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You are NEVER going to make it if you have to know why, you can take 2 exact same setups, same time, same date same everything and one works and one does not work....
Crap? is it crap to know what you are doing? Yea, I care about logic.
No, it doesn't drive me nuts at all.

Think about what you are doing. I don't care if it works most of the time. It isn't about making winners. It's about psychology. I want to know what I'm doing.

Playing something just because in the past it worked more than failed, is gambling. You may make money from gambling, but it is still gambling. I hate gambling. I don't want my living depend on gambling.

I don't think that searching for these answers will stop me from "making it". To be honest, for me personally, inside, I am already making it.

If anyone here knows a website or a book that goes deep into moving averages and divergence - please let me know. I can't believe that one day someone just decided that it works, and everyone followed him. There must be a research process that leaded to these indicators.


Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 1:15pm
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Riddle me this batman -

How do you enter? I like breakouts, but I've always taken PA as entry points - a pull back and a bar, a PA bar that gets me out of the range - enter on the break. Got a rule you employ? Many breakouts don't give a PA entry, which provides me a great deal of trade comfort. Am I missing something?
I don't have any rules. I use common sense on each trade to enter and manage it. But the tools are always the same.

Check this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44087

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 1:25pm
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Yep. I said many times before that it's hard trading against sharp moves, and I did it myself

By the way, quite funny...after that post, a BUOB formed off the round number (not a great one). I remember Jim post about playing a break of tow matching highs|lows during a very sharp trend can be a good continuation trade. So I bought the break (on my other demo account|testing account) and I'm already up to almost 2R.

Ben
Here it is. the thing that makes the difference is that there was no traffic, but a push of a break into space. That allows me to get into a free trade as dast as possible.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 1:54pm
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This is not like anything else you could do for a living....
Maybe you and ryan are right. Sorry if I sounded rude. Didn't mean to.

Quote:
Pring on Price is the best - IMHO. I'd get that.
Thanks

Quote:
You will start to see setup that worked for you, but your new found knowledge will begin to give you the "Yeah buts".
That won't happen if I will just not use these certain tools. If I have a problem with knowing the reason of div to work - it doesn't make my round number trading hard.

Quote:
Check out Bemac's ICCE - it works in an unreal fashion. I do not know why, it just does. And I've never seen anything like it. (Bemac has about 3 decades of fib addiction - it comes from that background)
Yea I read it on the day you have sent me the PM about it. But only the first thread.

It's quite easy to know why it works if you can base it on the fact that regular fibs have a reason to work (which they do - every one is looking at them - order flow|interest levels).

Firstly, plot the ICCE levels on a channel. Then scroll back on your chart and you will see that they line up with historical PPZs. So actually the real thing that rejects price on these ICCE levels, are PPZs. You can throw any kind of thing on your chart which will line up with price pivots, and then say that it work. So why using all these things instead of just highlight your price flips?

Second explanation - most of the traders pay attention to the 50% ret. That means that the order flow is there - which means a relativity long period of consolidation that occurs as a result of many kind of orders which trigger. So if you put the 50% ret on the Chanel, or pull it from swings and the 50% lines up with a Chanel - it is really the same thing. You still see the levels which other traders who use regular fibs see.

Almost everything has a reason if it continues to occur again and again and again. If you still didn't find the reason, it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

People 2,000 years ago did not know why they see the sun light in day, and moon light by night. Now we know. But the reason of today was still the reason of 2,000 years ago, even people did not know it then.

IMO trading is all about support and resistance. PA and other things are only clues and tools which will help you get better results.

Again, no offense my friend I am just telling my opinion.
Ohh and of course, I am by all means do respect Bemac which is trading X120 the time longer than I trade. Really, sorry if it's rude. I also appreciate ryan.
Just my opinion for now.

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 3:18pm
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No - not rude... ever.



Ben
Quote:
Not to hijack a perfectly good thread, but -

How do we arrive at an ICCE levels over and over again that aligns on PPZ's?...
[/quote]
Maybe price respects ICCE levels, but it is still S and R 90% of the time which lines up with these levels. If you find levels which do not line up with PPZS, try to plot regular fibs from swings and check if the ICCE levels line up with regular fib levels. If not, check if it lines up with a major round number.

We must understand that the thing which moves price is human's orders ONLY. They will put their orders based on what they see. ICCE isn't a popular tool. Not many traders will place there orders based on it.

Bemac itself doesn't have a reason for this to work. He just noticed that it works over a long time. But if we think about it, we can find the reasons. I gave my two options in my previous post based on my basic knowledge so far.

Also the 365EMA is great. Why? IMO because it lines up with price pivots. Anything that lines up with price pivots will work.

Price can move only in two directions: up or down. If it will move down, it may stall at the ICCE levels which are price pivots|regular fibs|round numbers, etc. Or price may move up and stall at one of the ICCE levels which are one of the factors above.
So of course price will eventually go up or down and hit these levels.

You can look at these as targets, and I can look at it as I just described on the paragraph above.

But again, I won't enter a break of a channel and just wait for my trade to hit the ICCE last levels. That is why I do not need them. And that is the point - if all the other indicators work because they line up with price flips and round numbers, why do I need messy charts and not only price?
If you just see that they work and don't ask yourself why, you will never get to this conclusion. Everything has a reason.

Anyway, how did we get to talking about all this? LOL! I made my post on using divergence on trends lol. Ohh and here it happens again. My post about divergence on trends can be the answer of "divergence is a killer on trends" (which I have never heard the reason for this sentence anyway).

We are just going around ourselves my friend....

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 3:33pm
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Divergence starts to appear on charts. People go short based on it. Price carries on going up. People get slaughtered.

That's it.

Divergence shows the potential for a reversal but it's not a signal that the reversal is going to happen now. Therefore it adds confluence to reversal PA, but that reversal PA better be strong or you'll get killed.

Look at your charts and see how long price continued to diverge from the oscillator before that divergence was respected and price corrected itself.

Case in point, the NU and AU at the moment. Look how...
Hey man,

I know that when you have confluence of factors, the odds are with you.

I want to know why divergence on trends, alone, is "showing the potential for a reversal". That's all.
What divergence on a trending price actually tells you?

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 3:52pm
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Find what works. Rinse. Repeat. Your bottom line does not lie.
OK enough! You are right. I made 9R gain in the last 30 hours. Used 2% on each trade - makes it 18% gain.
This is not my first day doing this, and my draw downs aren't so large. So I know what works for me. I'm happy.

I'll look into the sources you mentioned only for fun

Have a great week everyone!

Ben

PS - I know demo is different. But only psychologically. I'll pass it as well when time comes
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Old Sep 18, 2009 4:19pm
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Money changes it all, When your 1 trade = a nice car then you will look into MM and RR as the only thing that matters. But you are doing good, find something that works in any market and run with it, hell my setups are over 25 years old, I just added the J16 PB and PPZ stuff into the mix, if you get a setup that is too complex and it has a lot of things that have to happen it will not work in the long run. For me using BB's you will ALWAYS get extremes from people / news / emotions and RSI just ties to it so it works for me.

P.S. The 1st 4 people...
My trading style is the simplest it can get. All the recent posts about why and why are in purpose to prevent using things which I can already get from simple charts with only price bars on them.

What makes real money so different from demo I may ask? The only thing is psychology AKA emotions. Right?

Can you please explain it a bit further? how do you see the difference, and how do you deal with it?

Thanks,

Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 5:00pm
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Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post
In my limited experience, I'd say that there's no way to describe the difference between demo and live. It has to be experienced.

If I was to try to explain the difference, I guess you could say that demo is a video game where it doesn't hurt one bit if you die a horrible death. If that video game was in real life we'd run for shelter with pounding hearts.

For me going live was a slap in the face and it took a while to adapt.

I had no idea my discipline lacked so much until I went live. In demo I was God, like so many others. Then reality set...
Hey buddy,

It starts to make me curios again. I think I will open a micro account of 1K like I planned to do one month ago.


Then it will still be a kind of a video game....get into the cold water slowly...


Ben
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Old Sep 18, 2009 5:34pm
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I hope so!! That way I can say: "I remember Benji when..." when I am out on the porch talking about the 'old days....
I'll do my best

Quote:
BTW -



That is the whole enchilada. The foundation you are laying is solid, and required, but remember, when the structure gets built on top of it, the stuff below is hidden away.

tell you what - find a way to get live now with a small account. The experience will pay you richly in the future - if you survive the mandatory military stint in front of you.
Yep...need to catch my dad and make him open an account on his name for me first...can be a bit annoying

Quote:
Originally Posted by o990l6mh View Post


Getting into the water slowly is a way of torturing yourself! Especially when you get to where your trunks are getting wet. Brrr. It's better to run and get it over with!

But in trading it might be a wise choice
LOL
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Old Sep 19, 2009 4:45am
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Good Morning everyone....
Hey josh,

I have just thought about your post again.
You have reached your 2 target and decided to move it farther. Ok. Why not moving your stop as well when you reach the 2 target.

Lets say we are right now at the point of 2TP - how much are you willing to give back in order to try and reach 3TP? if you are willing to give back 2R, so stop at BE, but if you are willing to give back only 1R not matter what - move your stop to TP1.

I very rarely use targets cause I trail my stops, but the real important thing is that I lock in what I am not willing to give back. You can do the same even if you like using targets.

Maybe it will help you buddy

Ben
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Old Sep 19, 2009 4:49am
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Just do it.. Ben..
If you do nothing but repeat what you have been posting you will be well ahead.. thats how I started.. actually my first acct was $500..it went up, then down to almost zero then slowly & steadily up over a couple of years till there was 5k...

then after proving to myself I could be responsible with real money I funded a larger acct....
Thanks for sharing Jeff
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Old Sep 19, 2009 5:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
one word answers (synonyms, in fact):
DISCREPANCY. INCONSISTENCY. & DIVERGENCE itself.

Divergence/Inconsistency: price making higher high but MACD is not (momentum is not consistent with what price is doing, in this case going up)
Here is my problem. I tend to disagree with this sentence. I will use my past chart to explain again.

I agree that when price is trending up, it makes higher highs.
But please look at the MACD alone. You see three matching highs (oscillator isn't making higher highs like price). So yes, there is INCONSISTENCY here. So what?

All I understand from this INCONSISTENCY is: price moves up while the momentum|ratio of the move's speed is the same at three cases. So what?

Can't price keep moving up while the speed and momentum are the same?
OR - if it happens, why is it a sign of a possibility bearish move?

You are actually saying here that if price moves up )price makes higher highs), the momentum|ratio of the move's speed that price is making needs to get faster and faster in order to prevent a bearish sign?

I can't see why a sign for a reversal in price pops up when price keeps moving higher at the same speed and same momentum, AKA INCONSISTENCY AKA DIVERGENCE. If the speed and momentum are the same, doesn't it make more sense that price will keep moving at the same way like in the past?
(where are you Joel?).

I do not argue about the fact that it works or not, either not about if it's a good confluence factor or not. This doesn't belong.

Ben
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Old Sep 19, 2009 11:11am
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Hey guys,

Does Oanda support MT4?
What are the fees of bank deposits and withdraws?

Ben
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Old Sep 19, 2009 12:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PipGator View Post
No,Oanda does not support MT4. They have their own charting software which is not very good. The worst part of using Oanda, in many people's opinion, it the charting software. Many of use use MT4 for the charting and use Oanda for placing trades only. It's been a while since I transfered money, but I don't think they charge for deposits or withdraws.
Thank you PipGator.

Ben
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Old Sep 19, 2009 4:37pm
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Default Question about divergence...

Hello everyone,

I have noticed that when we select the preferences of our oscillator (MACDRSI) etc - we have to choose on what we want to base it's calculations. The default preference we probably all use is "close". So if I get it right, all the oscillator's information is based on the close points of the bars.

Divergence means that the direction of price is opposite than the direction of the oscillator.

BUT, do we calculate it right? If our oscillator is based on the close point of the bars, so we need to use the close points of the bars in order to check if there is any divergence. Does it make sense?

Bellow it a chart.
The orange line shows what we are regular to draw when we check divergence - from bar low to another bar low, or from a bar high to another bar high.

The blue lines are pulled between the same bars exactly, but this time between the close point of the first bar, to the close point of the second bar.

It is easy to see that the orange lines show divergence, but the blue lines show no divergence. The question is what's right to draw?

How can you check the difference between two completely different factors?

Sorry, but this is fascinating not my fault.

Ben
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Old Sep 19, 2009 6:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
Money changes it all
This is exactly the problem.

If all my trades where = a nice car, I would probably be making only 20% of my results.
If you exit a certain trade at 9R on demo, but at 1R on real money, only because you see $$$, this is involving emotions. This is the damn problem of all trades which are successful on demo, and blow their accounts on real money.

The market doesn't have a clue, and doesn't care about your position size. It will still move the same. I can't understand the trades which automatically set their targets according to their R:R or $$$ targets. What these have to do with how the price will move and retrace next?

For me it's easy to say and do - but when I trade I don't even look at my profit by $$. I see only numbers, not money. There are trades which I didn't even look at how much my profit was by $$.

Now, the only thing that separates me from making real cash in this market is the change of $$ having value. My mission when opening a real account will be minimizing the $$ window during my trade, and keep looking at it only as numbers and not $$.
I believe that if I can do it, I'll be fine.

If I can summarize all the trading psychology books I ever read in one sentence, it will be - "prevent yourself from looking at the $$ bar during your trade, and think only on numbers". This is maybe the hardest task of any trader, which makes the difference between the 5%, to the 95%.

Easy to say though...

Ben
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Old Sep 19, 2009 6:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
If you exit a certain trade at 9R on demo, but at 1R on real money, only because you see $$$, this is involving emotions. This is the damn problem of all trades which are successful on demo, and blow their accounts on real money.
Thinking on it - this is the thing that can kill traders like me, who like to trail their stops and get large R:R most of the time. This R:R is what keeps me in picture after a draw down. If I will prevent my winners from running, I'll be in a deep problem.

Does it makes sense to cut a 9R trade on 1R only because you see the $$ counter bar winking to you at 1R? this is what trading psychology is all about, and I will put all the efforts which are needed in order to get over it.

Ben
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Old Sep 19, 2009 6:23pm
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Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
Unfortunately, no one can be told what trading psychology is like. You'll have to find out for yourself. You'll know all about it once you have money on the line. The more you have on the line the more hardcore it will be.
You have said it yourself...trading psychology is the effect of having money on the line. The value off the $$ will control your decisions - the problem.
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Old Sep 19, 2009 7:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
Is that what I said? Interesting...

Sounds like you have it all figured out, please ignore my posts.
I apologize if I sounded rude. Not meant to.
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Old Sep 19, 2009 7:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w View Post
I actually think that's a pretty good thought. The more value someone holds to their cash, the harder time they'll have. If you look at money as another tool, then it becomes much easier.
Yep. That's my point.
If you are able to get rid of this money value and see numbers instead, you will be playing the market's conditions, instead of your emotions desires. IMO the money value doesn't need to effect and control you decisions.

To quote Ryan, "Money changes it all".

It comes back to fit yourself to the market instead of trying to fit the market to yourself. Controlling yourself instead of trying to control the market.

The hardest thing to do, maybe.


Ben
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Old Sep 20, 2009 4:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
You're shortcutting the rest of the closes between Point A and Point B as if they don't count.

Switch your chart to a line chart , look at your peaks and troughs and you'll see where your going wrong on that point straight away.

It doesn't matter if we aren't drawing them the most correct way. They're one of the strongest tools we have the way we currently use them anyway.
Thanks bundy, using the closed line makes sense now
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Old Sep 20, 2009 4:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tormo View Post
Hi Binji533,

I think you are underestimating the role psychology will play when you start trading and especially later as you get more into it. I am not pretending to be an expert but it seems you are taking it a little too lightly and thinking of only one aspect.

The value of money is an important part but what about other factors?

What's going to happen when you have a sting of consecutive losses?
-Do you think its not going to happen? (to belive that you are just lying to your self)
-How will this effect you ego?
-Will you question yourself...
Hey tormo,

Great points, and I agree with you.
Thanks for reminding and making me think again.
I'm only at the beginning of the real thing, and have much more to learn and go through.

Take care,

Ben
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Old Sep 21, 2009 7:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nAVIN2007 View Post
yes u hit the nail on the head, look at the market as an endless stream of opportunity your job is to extract money from it while it is trying to extract it from u...understanding the market is devine, and can do anything
IMHO i thought psychology in trading was very over traded, i now think it is 95% psychology and is the hardest thing to get right because there are so many paradox involved..if u ever read "trading in the zone" u will know exactly what i mean....
u have to take full responcibility for your actions, and its solly u that is responcible...
Great post brother.

Thank you for the kind words, and good luck for you as well

Take care,

Ben
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Old Sep 21, 2009 8:17am
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Hey guys, just got home a while ago.

First trade by my style, second by Ryan's (If I got it correct?).
First was a winner. Second BE - a pip from my target..

New TF for me. Setting targets for now.

Ben
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Old Sep 21, 2009 10:49am
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Hey guys,

Does anyone has a PDF or know a thread which is speaking about Ryan's style? Does he pay attention to traffic?

I have started reading his post and find it a bit different, but interesting.

I have took his basics and added minor round numbers (50 pips).

Till now I have traded a few B bars for testing.

Does anyone here trades the 5min15min on a regular routine? How are you doing this? just sitting a few hours in a raw in front of the computer? set alerts?

Thanks

Ben
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Old Sep 21, 2009 11:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
hey benji I don't know if you are speaking about this document,but I'll upload here.

You may take a look to the jankone thread which is implementing what ryan is doing.

i haven't time left to do some research about his strategie but you may look,and find by yourself.
Attachment 318875
Thank you very much
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Old Sep 21, 2009 11:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
break out pull back, long, add PB as a bonus
20ps stop, TP from j16 videos
.
Hey mark. Real great trade

I am just wondering why aren't you locking in profit once in a while? Are you going to sleep with your stop still not at BE at least in this situation?

Thanks,

Ben
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Old Sep 21, 2009 11:46am
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.
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Old Sep 21, 2009 12:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
in fairness & in respect to traders who have come before & will come after u,
i suggest u visit Jankone's thread & post/learn about M5 charts/lower timeframe chart there.
newer readers might/will get confused if we deviate from the main/basic H4 chart & up trading recommendation on post#1.
Agreed.
Thanks.
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Old Sep 21, 2009 1:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
A must read thread!
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Old Sep 22, 2009 11:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
This Daily GU baby PB is not the best size, obviously. But the swing Low at the 1.6200 PPZ level sure is a good location.

Should be fun to watch . . . . or trade very tightly.
Hey bro. I saw this as well, but the pin was too small for me. Do you look for lower TFs in cases when the location is good, but no great PA?

I took it on a lower TF by a different style (Ryan). Are you still in it? I think will reserve on the 1/64 which is an heavy resistance area on daily. We shall see

I took two winners and two losers today...but my winners cached a nice R:R so I'm happy.
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Old Sep 22, 2009 11:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Hey bro. I saw this as well, but the pin was too small for me. Do you look for lower TFs in cases when the location is good, but no great PA?

I took it on a lower TF by a different style (Ryan). Are you still in it? I think will reserve on the 1/64 which is an heavy resistance area on daily. We shall see

I took two winners and two losers today...but my winners cached a nice R:R so I'm happy.
Here is the daily chart.
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Old Sep 22, 2009 12:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
Dear pinbars,

You are awesome.

Love,
Joel.

Attachment 319779

Attachment 319780
Cool trade mate
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Old Sep 22, 2009 12:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I will look to the 4 hour and sometimes the Hourly at a good location with no solid PA on the Daily, as with the GU. Although the size was too small it still was a PB at a good location.

Just remember that the higher the time frame the stronger the setup. Lower time frames need more confluences and bigger bars. But all in all, its the location and supporting confluences that rule the roost.
Yea I know lower TF are much less reliable. I'm just practicing a new method.
Thanks for the other answer
Quote:
Take the Gbp/Cad, the 4 hour BUOB at a good location, the 1.7400 PPZ level, but it didn't have any other confluences that I could see. So a tight stop and looking for a hard break would be the approach.
If I see the correct 4H bar, it broke and went exactly where it should

Ben
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Old Sep 22, 2009 12:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I'm still in it. I've taken 67 pips off the 1st half and the 2nd half is at break even. I would like to see the daily close above the 1.6300 and then shoot for the 1.64 and 1.6500 and then look for a shorting possibility.
Possible. But I think 17R will be good enough for me in this case lol.
Moved my stop slightly down just in case we bounce off these bar highs and shoot up

Ben
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Old Sep 22, 2009 1:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I like your method Ben. Go, Ben , Go!
**Ryan's method**, I'm just the follower

Quote:
Its fun reading Price like a book.

Yep, we are doing it together my friend

Ben
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Old Sep 22, 2009 1:09pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
**Ryan's method**, I'm just the follower

Ben
By the way, I think this is a great Idea. Identifying PA bars on daily, and then entering with Ryan's method on lower TFs. Usually a good daily pin will produce at least one daily bar move. If it's really at a good location, all I need is a real good entry and ride the daily bar. In this case it was easy because it broke really hard and clean on the 5min, so I moved my stop to BE after a few minutes and just let it ride the daily move. BE is ok if happen.

Ben
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Old Sep 22, 2009 1:15pm
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Quote:
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Oh, I thought it was PA retracing or retesting the round number that the PA formed on. I like that one.
That's Mike's
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Old Sep 24, 2009 1:29pm
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.
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Old Sep 24, 2009 2:00pm
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Quote:
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Hi.

Hehe benji you amaze me all the time. Nicely done !
But didnt you felt scared about those highs left of your pin bar ?
You are right. But it was based on a little different style, which gave me the green light. The pin on the lower TF was a B+ pin though (better then mine...it's probably because this month I'm way far far above my monthly gain %...so the adrenalin goes up to my brain lol....but basically diffenetly not an A+ trade )

Ben
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Old Sep 24, 2009 3:04pm
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Why didn't any tell me?!?!??!?!?!
It was saving me all this blablabla with my father!

PS - Thank you benmen
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Old Sep 24, 2009 3:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
no stopping you now Ben...

go get some...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocket! View Post
No stopping you now bro!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSADxMocaHs

Sorry, I was watching top gear...
LOL, thanks guys!
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Old Sep 25, 2009 2:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
This was a nice one - although not a Daily TF trade, it was of the 4 hr variety....
Awesome trade SP. I saw it too late, but I really love that BEOB.
Price moved down, pulled back to a PPZ (also a 50% fib to the fibbers), and produced a great bar (engulfs a few previous bars).

I had a nice day intraday trading the EURUSD though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
Oh - and having Oanda take your biz - Good for you. Just let your father know
Yea he knows. He doesn't care what I do with my money, he just care too much about giving any company his ID and personal details (IMO it's ridicules, but his right to decide lol).

Anyway, it will need to wait a few weeks...they are asking for a kind of bill or document on my name in addition to my ID and photo...so I need to go to the bank and open an account on my name (they said it will be good enough instead)...when time allows.

Have a great week everyone,

Ben
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Old Sep 25, 2009 5:28pm
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Wanted to share my coolest trade today (I saved a pic just in time), EURUSD intraday
One like this once a week and I really don't need anything more.

Long term moves are very rare to be able to hold. These are only available when there ia a good breakout pattern, or a very sharp trending market. But most of the time the market is sideways (like james says all the time), and then reversal trades whith small targets are working great. But you still need your confluence. Some use MA's and fibs - I use PPZs, round numbers, divergence (and in some trades, the most powerful confluence factor is THE TREND).

This was a great pin + div with a very clear and easy target to hit. Some times I get killed in intraday sideways market because I am trying to be an hero and catch big moves when the conditions do not allow. I must work on it.
I have entered this in a risky style (entry by retrace + a reduced stop), but that pin was big and with a little price flips understanding like all of us here in this thread know, it was a risky entry, but an entry with a reason, and a good enough reason IMO, which makes all the difference in cash from the same move.

Eventually this certain pin created a much larger move, that caused me to miss a good amount of R (rewards), lol. But this is life, and I prefer a smaller gain, than a lose.
As rac says, the market will be here long enough after my bones will be dust, so no worries

By the way, I drew the div wrong on my chart. On a close line chart, price made a double top (not an higher high), but there is still div.

Ben
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Old Sep 25, 2009 6:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
pin by proxy.

Yep, it's even not a pin lol. But for me, as long as it closes below the round number' it's trade-able because of the long nose (even if the closes isn't on the pip, I can read a strong rejection by looking at the bar it self, and the close is below my key level). Even a better when it pokes above all these bar highs

Ben
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Old Sep 25, 2009 6:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Spot on Ben..

Thats all we do.. j16 pa...

I'm sure you notice both of these took place at ........ yep round numbers..
the euro loves'em...
Hey buddy

I took the first trade on your chart: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=44521

Yea this is really simple. I am not advising new traders to trade lower time frames, but I can say that after they make their way down, there will be at least one A+ setup once a day.
A great bar + div + round number is all we need to make a good trade

The only thing that is hard for me, is being all day on the computer for ot missing good setups, or not being around and missing.
To be honest I never tried the alerts off the round numbers - maybe that is the answer. Many great trades are there.

By the way Jeff, you are trading quite similar to Ryan, right? So we are looking for the same things I think

Ben
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Old Sep 25, 2009 6:58pm
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Quote:
I see that bar, and would not have traded it. It simply does not fit into the framework of my rules.
Rules? what rules?
This is the point I feel different. I didn't find any single article which didn't mention that "YOU MUST HAVE RULES IN ORDER TO MAKE MONEY".
I don't have rules. Funny. I have never wrote down a list of rules and followed them.
Maybe this is the reason it's so important for me to find sense in everything? I trade a method which made up from knowledge and almost 100% common sense.
Rules confuse me. You need this and this and that and...to fit together in order to pull the trigger.
I just look at a setup and find if there are good enough reasons to trade it, or reasons why not to trade it.

In the case of the trade above, to be honest, I didn't even checked if it's technically a pin. And for me it doesn't matter if it closed a pip and an half above the bar from the left, or not. It still shows me the same. This is an example of using common sense instead of rules. A rule would be preventing me from taking this trade, even that all the other factors where good. I just ask myself if this 1.5 pip will change the entire next move? IMO no.

Thinking about it, on an other broker's time zone, it maybe is a technically pin...so..lol.


Every setup is individual. It can take years for the exact same setup to form again, at the same way, location and shape.
When I think about rules I think about a system. About a robot that fills orders. About an expert advisor. But robots are used for things which happen all the time exactly the same.
The market is different all the time, and it isn't a system - it moves by human's orders and desire. So we need to use common sense, that human have, and not a system.

Maybe I got too far with this, sorry guys. What I am saying is not right, correct or a fact by any mean. It is just me sharing my opinion, so please stick to the more experienced people in the trading world which do have a list of rules

Quote:
My suggestion to all the new folks whose heads are spinning - and I know you are out there.
I remember it happened to me after reading Jim's posts, and them Mike's posts. They trade so different, and use different tools.

What I dd was just taking what I like from everyone. But not too much.

Quote:
Guys like Ben have a really big advantage - they don't know that they are not supposed to be able to do this. No one told him, so he runs off and does it - and does it very well.
Not supposed to do what?
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Old Sep 26, 2009 9:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TC East View Post
Thanks Benji...actually, I find this post quite helpful....
I'm happy you think so. When I posted it I thought I will get a bunch of arguments that I trade wrong, and not like I should.
I just don't care anymore about what is "right" an what's not. I read several psychology books, and I disagree about some things there. I just follow what works for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
LOL

How did I know that you'd say this. I swear it, I did.

What you are calling common sense is, in fact a set of rules you follow to get in a trade and then to manage it.

Tharp has explored this very phenomenon with traders like yourself. He has found that everyone of them actually has a firm set of rules - criteria if you will, that governs their feeling - aka "common sense".

It works for you, and I would not change a thing.

But as for rules or criteria, you have them. You just do not look at things that way. You are not supposed...
LOL SP I love your posts


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bocajunior View Post
Hey Benji,
How you doing? Good I think. And I see you you are in the process of signing up at Oanda. Good stuff, I'm sure all will be fine with them. I have demo and live accounts with them and I have not experienced any problems.

I like your post about rules and just wanted to offer a opinion. I am in agreement with you about about this and I would say the statement I have quoted above is good enough rules in my opinion.

You see the set up, it fits with your method or style, so trade it and apply your money management. That's it right!?

Cheers
Boca...
I'm all good buddy, hope you are as well
Yea you and SP make sense...it depends how you look at it.

Ben
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Old Sep 26, 2009 1:31pm
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Default I also have loses

I have noticed that most of the people post only their winners. I do that as well, lol. But why?

I will start posting also loser trades when I have. IMO, many times it is more important focusing on them than on the winners. Nothing to be afraid of.
We all have losers
Most of my learning and improving comes from loses. Over time I learn how to cut them though.

I remember someone in this thread saying that he never checks his loses and don't care about them after the fact, and I have disagreed. So not trying to argue, but look how:

1) I am applying what I have learned from past losers.- When I saw that 4 bars in a raw didn't manage to break the pin, I just caught my risk to one third by moving my stop under the last small buob. That is because it was a reserval trade against the trend, and I saw I had lack of momentum. I t was a smart move. That way I can have three losers like that and it will still remain a loss of 1R only.

2) I have Learned (or more correct to say - I got reminded) that I have traded against the trend without divergence. This is after I have done some back testing, and got to the conclusion that when trading reversals (against the trend), most of the losers don't have any divergence. I tend to limit myself to reversals only off a round numbers which are also act as a PPZ, and with div. This trade only showed me again that I was right ( I didn't have any div).
By analyzing my whole chart, I can see that a few bars earlier, I had a big buob, off a round number, and with a real great div. It was quite the same situation like the pin bar I took, but had divergence this time. I always take all this into account.

Once a week, or a few weeks - I open my trades folder and go over all my loser trades and read all my notes I have left for myself.
It really helps, and I suggest everybody to try it.

By the way, I had another cool winner on the EURUSD yesterday, but I think I post too much now, lol

Ben
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Old Sep 26, 2009 1:40pm
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Quote:
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Hi.

I have a question to the more experienced members here. Dont you think that I overact with this PPZ.I am kinda confused. It is a mess in my head with this PPZ. I see everywhere PPZ I took only one trade for 2 weeks because of those PPZ. Should I look for more valuable PPZ or something ? Please help me
Hey buddy, which pair and TF is it?
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Old Sep 26, 2009 2:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
If I am fanatical about anything when it comes to trading it is this.

I have two journals on PF (intraday and daily) where I post every trade winner or loser. Even the two humbling revenge trades I took this month. Everything goes in those journals without exception.

I never post trades on here because for me it is meaningless to post a winner if I am not going to post every trade. It's different if you're a senior looking to teach. I am grateful for the charts that Jim, Mike, Rac, Jarroo etc post. Wouldn't have learnt a thing without them....
Yea...I think I post charts because I got used to, and it's fun sharing great trades?

I think I just want to share what's going on...maybe I need a journal like you have...in FF.

Anyway, of course we all have losers, and I decided to post it because it isn't less important than the winners. Look how much I can grab from this lose...if I post winners, I will post also losers, although I keep all of them in folders as well

Ben
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Old Sep 27, 2009 5:32am
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This PB was not an A setup because of the lows right ?
Hey atton,

Maybe this will help a bit. I also have a question for you on the chart.

Ben
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Old Sep 27, 2009 5:53am
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Quote:
Hi Ben,
whats up ? I would probably move my stop to BE when the price hits or is near the red line.
Yep, that is how you use your PPZ knowledge
Reversal trades will ALWAYS have a kind off PPZ or traffic in the way, by their nature. But if you are trading off a solid support area, at a swing point, with a great bar, the odds are with you.

Quote:
What did you do in that trade. I am pretty sure you have taken it.
Umm...I tend to limit my reversal trades on lower TFs to round numbers. If the round number was a few pips lower, the pips were in my bank...but it doesn't belong to what James16 is teaching...only my personal thing

Ben
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Old Sep 27, 2009 2:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Please indulge me... (non-trading related)

Please visit this thread
Help needed.
Thank you!
Hey SC,

I saw the pics and videos...that's horrible...
Be safe bro.

I still don't have a bank account or credit card...any chance they accept donations via PayPal or AlertPay?

Ben
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Old Sep 27, 2009 7:34pm
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WTF was going with the AUDJPY in the last hour?!

Anyone took the 5min pullback pin bar from last week?

I'm going to take full profit around 76.45 if my 2 bar stop won't get hit before.

I have a feeling that this is going to be the best week ever
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Old Sep 27, 2009 7:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Que View Post
Awesome Benji
Thanks bro, My trailing stop got hit already

By the way, I am curious about trading gaps. I have heard this phrase before from Mike, but didn't really understand (and didn't want to bother the man...he works too much )
Are the gaps likely to close most of the time? meaning that if we are now below a gap, price is likely to go up..or...?
Sorry for the dumb question.

Thanks,

Ben
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Old Sep 27, 2009 8:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Que View Post
Benji,

Yes, I ran a test on all pairs on the daily chart as far back as IBFX had data. The following came back.

By the close of the Monday bar, ~86% of the time, the Sunday Gap was closed. Please note this is back testing data, and can only be used for statistical and historical significance. What I mean is, there is no guarantee that this historical trend will continue.

However, I trade the Sunday Gap every week on GU and GJ, I ended up picking those pairs as they tend to have the largest gaps (Although there is not a gap every week). I would...
Now I understand. Thanks for taking the time to explain.

By the way, if I'm not wrong, the very old data we see on our charts isn't the real data, but a reconstruction of it (or what ever is the right word lol). So that data can be a bit less reliable.

Anyway, I think that trading gaps only with the trend can improve the win rate as well JMO.

Ben
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Old Sep 27, 2009 8:34pm
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Quote:
New homes and durables were disappointing, so people are worried that perhaps they have been a bit too optimistic and got carried away with the whole 'everything is fixed now!' thing...risk appetite is headed back down, and so people want out of the carry trade (which has a rubbish differential at the moment to begin with)... so they dump the aussie as soon as they could.

Everyone is pretty much waiting for Tokyo to open and then take a lead from them.

Or, to put it simply... bearish outside bar
You have the answer to everything lol.


Quote:
Lookin forward to a flood of Ben charts!
lol...I'm quite bothered posting here 5min charts...but I"m planing to practice some "rac trades" (PPZ blind touches....I'll add div as well) this week on the higher TFs

Ben
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  #44712  
Old Sep 27, 2009 9:11pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
I'm trying to fix that, I swear
You really should not!

Quote:
Excellent. I really dig your charts, not many people really go into their thought process in so much detail (to be honest, I'm not sure many people think about it in such detail to begin with...)

I'm still in the 'Ben = Mike posting from a second account' camp
wow...I didn't really think ppl are compering me to Mike.

To be honest, after I read some of Jim's posts, it was too general for me. So I spent time going into Mike's way to apply Jim's material, from his personal way. It took a while, but I now can't throw it out of my head. Recently I have tried styles of different successful traders in FF like Ryan and Mark, but it seems that I still always see what I have learned too see from Mike's posts.

But I must admit I'm playing much more aggressively than him I always look for ways to increase my R:R by playing retraces or half stops, etc.

Ohh and my mind...first thing I can't handle is a messy chart. When I look for trades my charts are 100% clean, except of the round numbers indicator. I never mark the PPZs, divergence, whatever on my charts (only when I post then here). Clean charts=clean mind for me

Ben
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Old Sep 27, 2009 10:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post

Excellent.
Here you go...

rac trades...

I don't like all the moving averages and fib stuff...I took from him only the concept of PPZ touches with confluence.
And here again...I stick in Mike's stuff round numbers, trend direction and div. Not always you get the three of them though. A three of them with an established PPZ will be an A++++ for me.


Here are some charts..
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Old Sep 27, 2009 11:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
As a bonus you also get to do less work and decrease your stress levels managing the easy trades you are taking.
Agreed!
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Old Sep 27, 2009 11:15pm
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Hey pro

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
not exactly...
Ha that was a good bet!
But it seems that I have not yet figured out your trick....is this a break of a PPZ?

Quote:
keep doing what you doing b.
If army and college doesn't change you (It certainly will ), you may get places with your trading.
Army can have some effect I think....college? I don't think I want|need that!!
12 years are enough. If I will learn a profession, I hope it will be only for fun...something with sports.

Ben
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Old Sep 28, 2009 6:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
No, it was (trigger) retest of area where equities broke lower (YM). Same = true for ej. GJ = different, long story
.
My first one had triggered.
It's like playing blind pullbacks with the trend....cool
Lets see if I got you right..
Ben
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Old Sep 28, 2009 9:57am
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Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
Hm... How about balance in life (balance is good everywhere). Would you want to be a guy with a big triceps on your left hand and a big biceps on your right one only?
ok ok...I don't need to think about this now ...how can I decide today about something 5 years away? I'm just not planing to learn a profession for the money...my dad has a doctorate (lung doctor), he spent years upon years studying, still works non stop, goes out before I wake up, comes back late at night...just for feeding his family...who wants this crap? That is a profession of money, and I will tell you, we are not that rich at all.
You need balance...but you can work|learn for fun, and enjoy it. If you are going to work everyday ONLY for the money, that sux.
The world is changing, and I'm sure that the money in the future will be mainly in the online internet world, which you can learn alone.

By the way, here is what I like to do when I'm bored and there are no good intraday setups. These are stress free trades, and I don't care about the lame R:R, it's better than just knowing where price is going, looking at it doing what out thought it will do, but not making the money out of it - that's lamer

Ben
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Old Sep 28, 2009 10:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pavulon2007 View Post
hi benji

nice trading. i took similar trade this morning. this type of scalping is a little to fast for me but i do it here and there. overall this set up on h1 looked tempting for a longer move south, but the context told me to take full profit quikly. i see this pair slowing down significantly on h4 so i tend to look north. the area of 1.58 has a potential to push us up. maybe i should have been in it already... i'm still holding partial position from way up there looking for signs for south on higher tfs

Umm...personally I do not like to combine bars. But I know Jarroo does.
It feels to me like I am trying to force the market to show me what I want instead of what is there....probably a psychological thing of mine.

James says the market goes 95% of the time sideways, and that's the time when all system traders get killed. So I need to be careful here.
I am doing it only when I have a range box, a pin poking out of it, and supporting divergence. Only on high TF (4H-daily), and here is the catch - I set very small targets that if price won't hit it before my stop, it will be funny. After all it's still a range trade. After doing these small R:R trades - the trend trades are the cream, when you can move your stop quickly to BE, and then trail as you wish

Glad you are making pips buddy!

Ben
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Old Sep 28, 2009 11:14am
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Can be nice
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Old Sep 28, 2009 1:29pm
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Had one lose today by trying to understand what Mark is doing there with his chats lol (audjpy). Full lose.

Except from that it was a cool day, and here is the cherry

Ben
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Old Sep 28, 2009 4:41pm
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Hi Benji

You always kill me with your trades But dont you ever consider the highs near your entry like the last example you gave above. Or when you see PA on round number you dont care ?
Hey atton,

No!

These are reserval trades. The nature of them is to have traffic in the way. I mean, if price made it's way to a certain point, you will sure see the bars it left behind it, right? Imagine you are walking on sand along the beach, then you stop, turn 180 degrees, and keep walking. Any chance you won't see your foot prints in the sand? You will ALWAYS see them and the same goes with price.

This kind of traffic doesn't bugs me on reversal trades, IF I HAVE GOOD ENOUGH REASONS WHICH SUPPORT ME!!

The only thing that does a bit scare me though, is a sharp move. That means there is momentum. I will prefer a consolidation down with a bit traffic, than trading against a very sharp move.
Diffinately on 5min charts, where bars don't contain much info by their shape, the location is the most important. That's why I limit myself to round numbers on lower TFs + it helps me to not over trade (not really lol).

Here are another two examples from today. If My round number is also a very major round number' or a strong price pivot, I just move my stop to BE asap, and let my position ride to the moon. This trade I managed tight because it wasn't more than a round number. It went much further, but I don't care. I plaid the bar with an half stop, which doubled my position size, and I am happy.

Now, you see my charts and think "wow! how does that kid trade like that?!". Well, I am telling you that I have spent way too much hours next to the computer in the last 3 months, plus all the other things I need to do in life.
I have back-tested these things for hours upon hours to see what will give me the best win rate, how to play the bars, the stops etc.

These are working and it is very very easy! Thanks to MIKE, JAMES, RYAN and more.

By the way, I got a few PMs in the last days regarding divergence. So I'll give you a tip.
I have been going a bit deeper into divergence, and found the following (thanks to Ryan that pointed it out to me!! thank you Ryan).

Firstly, I found that it is much more effective to check the divergence of the short term (5-10 last bars). That is after Ryan pointed it out to me.

The MACD is quite inert. So I found it much easier to see the divergence on the RSI than on the MACD for the recent term moves (you can see the highs and lows clearly).

Secondly, the default settings of all the oscillators are on "close". That means that all the info that the oscillators are showing, is based on the points where the bars close.
So basically, if you want to check if there is divergence between the oscillator and price, you need to check it on a line chart (which is based on the points where you see the bars close).
I really can't see any sense by pulling the line of the div between the bar highs|lows on the price chart - it is a completely different information.

Try to look at the (6) rsi next to the closed line chart. The lines look exactly the same. When there is a bit div, it come back again, usually a 5-10 periods (bars on the bar chart) latter.
Just do it and look what you get by yourself.

Hope this helps anybody.


PS - Please ignore the TF, because I don't want new people to start with lower TFs. It is tougher, and I made my way down carefully.

Ben
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  #44766  
Old Sep 28, 2009 5:14pm
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Joel,

Here I plaid today a "Ben-rac" trade

I have also used this chart to show what I mean by checking div on a closed line chart, and how do they look correlated.

I had a very small stop on this trade. Why? Nature of breakouts - if it would reach that high, I'm sure it was enough for all the orderflow to trigger and shoot price to the moon. So it was a chance to take a calculated risk and aim for a large R:R.

ok, tomorrow school again, going to take a shower and prepare my stuff, bye bye


Ben
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  #44776  
Old Sep 28, 2009 5:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
When price is dropping very hard and fast(ie very big bearish bars). Trying to catch it with a small bar is dangerous. I like to personally see an equally big bullish bar to reverse

Mike
That's what I meant when I said:

"The only thing that does a bit scare me though, is a sharp move. That means there is momentum. I will prefer a consolidation down with a bit traffic, than trading against a very sharp move."

You're the man Mike

Ben
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  #44867  
Old Sep 29, 2009 1:59pm (33 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
I generally pass on this kind of 'barb wide' action, where price is flat and oscilating around the EMA. It is easy to make a couple of pips (since you really do know exactly where price is going and where it should stop), but it doesnt seem worth the effort.

Al Brooks talks about this kind of action in his new book 'Reading Price Chart Bar by Bar' - covers it over a couple of pages somewhere in the middle. Its probably the best part of the (exceptionally poorly written but useful) book. You would probably like it.

------
The bit of extra return...

Yep, I have weaknesses.
Market offers me money, I trade also the c bars like a dumb (and successfully most of the time).

It will change, I just need to get the punishment before. Many times, I need to learn the hard way - That's the only way to get convinced from inside (at least for me - today I didn't sit still, till I got an automated ZERO in our test....like a fool).

I'm only starting...I know the meaning of the word "forex" a bit longer than two months now...I''l get over all the problems and improve eventually

Gone to the bank today, will send Oanda my papers latter

Ben
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  #44868  
Old Sep 29, 2009 2:02pm (33 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Very nice

Also glad to see many of you manage these bars the proper way.

The best of the best IMO was the eur/gbp simply based on size but the others all got to and/or past the first trouble areas like James16 teaches


Mike
Hi Mike,

I remember you posting once a chart of Oanda.
Do you do all your charting on MT4 demo, and place the orders on Oanda as well?

Ben
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  #44878  
Old Sep 29, 2009 2:52pm (32 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
hey ben wish you luck!! anyway I'll be curios how far will you go with that account.

Trust my ben it's all bullshit about the part of learning the hard way,and get a kick in the ass,if you can't prove yourself to be good on a demo account you will be not make it in an real account.

why to waste any account like others have been done many times, we can learn from their mistakes,smart guys always learn even from they mistakes.

But you have prove it that you understand the principles that its teaching here.

I for exemple haven't lost a penny,...

I didn't mean learning the hard way on a real account. I just meant to say that these C trades work almost every time if you manage them well (when I did them on demo).

However, no less than A++ will be entered on real money. I made fun with the demo account. But no games with real money.

I'm going live with 1,000$. Planning to do 1% per trade first month, than move on for 2% like I did on the demo.

On Friday I am off on a vacation for a week and a half though..

We are all lucky finding this thread

PS - that exam was a mini mini mini value (if at all), 5min long. I do learn most of the things from others mistakes and I'm not a trouble maker!!

Life are good. Cheers

Ben
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  #44882  
Old Sep 29, 2009 3:11pm (31 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Que View Post
I posted this on another forum I have started visiting for a friend. Its pure speculation, but shows how the slow burn of compounding interest works while starting an account. Just thought some of the newer members demoing my be interested.

Que
I hate these things It's like telling the market how much you order on him to give you. Or can get some traders into expectations which can have a killing effect (I mean looking at these large numbers at the end).

Only the charts matter. Take what you are given. That will do the rest.

Ben

PS - no personal offense my friend I know the math part of using the earned money again. Just don't let the numbers turn you
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  #44885  
Old Sep 29, 2009 3:30pm (31 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Que View Post
No offense taken.

I posted this over a heated argument whereas a few people were claiming that 1-2% risk per trade was a silly idea. They were insisting that 10-20% was much more realistic if you want to grow an account. The purpose was to show how massive 5% a month (Not day, not week) really is...

Que

I remember Joel posting a "ruin rate" chart according to each risk %.

Now it becomes simple math of how much you are willing to risk vs gain. At some stage, a drawdaown of at least 5 trades in a row can happen. That will burn out 50% of their accounts.

I think 2% is the max for me, if not too much (2% is pretty much aggressive).

What I meant earlier - there are some that pay too much attention to the numbers at the spreadsheet, and become dizzy. For me, I just know that compounding has a great effect for the long term, that's all I need.

Ben
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Last edited by benji533, Sep 29, 2009 4:27pm (30 hr ago)
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  #44970  
Old Sep 30, 2009 5:47pm (5 hr ago)
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Same old setup over and over again.

My favorite, till I find another attraction
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Old Sep 30, 2009 6:06pm (5 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro View Post
As usual, nice work.

When you arrive, will you let me fly in your private jet? I flew in one once - it was the way to travel. Sigh. CEO's - I just do not know enough of them....
You are making tons by yourself master SP (I saw the ICCE thread ).
But if you want, I'll buy you one with some of my virtual money.

Off to bed

Ben

PS - take care all. I won't be here next week.
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