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james16 Chart Thread
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Nov 8, 2010 8:04am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Happy birthday to my great friend 
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Nov 8, 2010 11:06am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plund
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Thanks Plund! I will have to get this loaded up
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Nov 8, 2010 11:27am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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This is from James he told me to pass on.
He is very thankful for all the wishes but 50 is a tough number for him so he said "well tell everyone when I'm done crying I will be back. In a day or two."
I told him beer and cake only and 50 isn't that old!
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Nov 8, 2010 11:28am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Since I joined the James thread in august my trading has improved greatly, finally all the pieces are falling together. The James thread provided me the glue for all the tools (fibs, trendlines, bar patterns etc..) I've learned sofar. The uniqueness of this thread is that it teaches you to use all these available tools in conjuction with each other and not as a standalone tool, this in order to pick the trades with the highest probability of succes. The more reasons (confluence) traders have to buy or sell into an area, the more likely they are...
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awesome Zhang, I know that is the best birthday gift Jim could ask for too
Keep at it my friend
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Nov 8, 2010 1:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rumpfunk
Hi Guys,
i am here due to the not actually hearing one bad thing about this thread and James only peoples praises.
Now my question is where do i start?
I'm aware of the seperate website James runs but how does that run in conjunction with this thread?
Regards
Rump.
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Welcome Rump
Start with post 1, there are a lot of links and good stuff that James stuck to that post. Then just start slowly making your way through asking questions as you go. I know it seems crazy tedious but after a few hundred pages you will have a much firmer grasp and there is a lot of noise that you can skip. Read all of James posts as you go of course, and you will soon not feel so overwhelmed by this huge thread.
Be sure to ask questions as you go 
Mike
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Nov 8, 2010 1:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rumpfunk
ok great thanks,
So you would say everything I need is here without having to join the seperate site?
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The additional site has more stuff /info/webinars/forums/videos
But there is MORE then enough contained in this thread to turn someone profitable or given a chance to make it in this business.
Enjoy!
Mike
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Nov 8, 2010 10:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool
Can't find any good setup on daily today. EURNZD -just PPZ and IB
Doesn't look convincing enough 
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one of the biggest thing b/w the winners and losers. Sitting on your hands
Easier said then done, but crucial
Mike
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Nov 9, 2010 10:04am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nuclear62
Hi all! I?ve been testing trading with a smaller stoploss. For example behind the eye or behind some other PPZ before the bar low. The results have been good so far but i?m curious about your experience, could someone share some thoughts? Is it just so personal? I like to put my stop behind the bar low in many ways, but i?m interested in reducing the risk% and using a smaller stop. (Big losses make me sick  )
The probability to hit the stoploss is of course bigger (with smaller stop) but so are the profits of course.. (risking 2%) But when we...
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Hey Nuc
Nothing wrong with this approach at all. The ability to get a larger position size might way out the extra length in stop loss for your approach.
A good thing to do is track multiple things at once. Track this approach, track where you have a full bar stop loss. Then just make sure to be diligent in tracking this data as you go. 6 months+ down the line you will have a lot of solid real time data to analyze and then make decisions that you have seen done in real time. This is what I always do
Best
Mike
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Nov 9, 2010 11:57am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey
Mike, just wanted to clarify on this same subject. I have listened to your webinars a number of times where you have asked repeatedly, "Are YOU going to take a full bar loss?" Then you went on and said that personally you wouldn't take a full bar loss on anything. So if that is what we want to avoid, then wouldn't it make sense to just set a smaller SL like behind the nearest S/R.
1. It limits your loss by way of avoiding a full bar SL.
2. It affords you a bigger position sizing.
Or am I missing the point?
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Hey Jey
It's not that I never take a full bar loss it's that I am always looking for ways to reduce my stop logically while keeping my trade plan in tact.
The reason I use the full bar with a stop to start is this affords me the room to then reduce my stop loss at logical points. If I didn't do that then I wouldn't have that leeway to move my stops. If you watch my trade videos you will see me doing this. Reducing my stop while still sticking to my initial trade thoughts as long as things remain the way I initially saw them.
I hope that helps
Mike
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Nov 9, 2010 1:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gh0stjpy
hey, am new here and new to FOREX trading (since Feb 2010), i also trade entirely on price action and for me seems to work, although it has taken a lot of practise just to trade! But now seem to be seeing the fruits and have not made a loss (weekly) for past 8 weeks. I've just subscribed to this thread and look forward to updates etc, Thanks
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Welcome Ghost
I wish I found PA trading in my first year
Enjoy and ask questions we have a great group of guys/gals around here
Mike
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Nov 9, 2010 3:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dcart
Just a quick question. Say you have a pin bar on the daily, is it best to wait for the close of the next day's bar to confirm it, or do you prefer to just trade the immediate break out.
Im guessing that the first option is the most conservative but might miss the move, and the second would get you in at a good price but could fake you out.
What do most people do?
Also, with outside bars, say if it is a large one, would it be better to wait for a slight retrace, then play the bar? Since after a big move there is usually some consolidation after...
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Hey Dcart
We wait for the next bar to "break" the pinbar/outside bar etc. So once the bar closes as a pin then you can place your pending orders in there.
As for outside bar and retrace, you are correct many people will play a retrace of a big bar like an outside bar and many do retrace before hand.
best
Mike
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Nov 9, 2010 9:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool
Mike, you use Alpari UK right? Do you know why our EURGBP chart looks very different from IBFX? Three day bars are missing. 24,25 & 26
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Hey BC
I use fxpro
It could either be bad data, or something to do with sunday bars. Maybe someone with alpari live can just let us know if it was just bad data to the demo feed.
Best
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 12:37am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leelar
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Bingo nice levels and boxing too
If it breaks your box and can close above it , it will likely pullback and find some sort of support. You can't ever know for sure, but once you can define these levels you can make much smarter decisions and logical trade plans
Best
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 9:58am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nuclear62
There?s Alpari Live 
Nuc
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thanks Nuc that is what I suspected
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 10:02am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gh0stjpy
hi and thanks mbqb11 , john225, i currently trade on Spreadbetting acc as it's nice and simple ie: ?1 per pip equals ?1 per pip. Today i did a SELL on EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, made 5 pips and got out lol! but a gain better than a loss! i only tend to trade an hour a day due to work.
i have tried a couple of CFD and Forex accounts (currently started that Alpari UK contest) but am having trouble understanding how these Forex accs work? in SB acc...
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Hey ghost
Some great information from the gang there.
We verify the Price bars by learning what price bars in what locations work the best. Keyword is LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION. As you work through this thread you will see many ways to do this. Start reading post 1 all the links on post 1, and then working your way through the first few hundred pages. Specifically of course paying attention to James16 posts. Then you will see him introduce key concepts and ways he interprets support and resistance, and confluence(multiple factors lining up) to determine when to find entries. As you get further and further it will all make more sense. Including how to begin to think about managing trades and little things here and there that help distinguish the good from the bad.
As you go and find trades be sure to post them and we can give you our feedback and those questions will spark new answers for you and then you just go with the flow. It's a long process but it gets easier the more time you spend with the stuff. It isn't magic but it is just logical stuff to develop logical trade plans.
Enjoy
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 10:07am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Hiya guys!
Mike told me I should start looking more at Daily charts, so here it is. What do you think about the Daily AUDUSD.
Isn't the candle with the arrow to it a BEOB? Also the chart is making a divergence, what do you think?
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Hey Carnegie
Yep that is a beob and divergence.
My issues with why it would be a pass for me personally.
Inability to close below the BRN of 1.000 parity. Would make me nervous always trading a break into such a large round number. It's a rule I never break.
Also I would want to see the high, go above the highest point, really test what is up there and get a better view.
If both of those conditions were met it would be a trade for me.
Again just some of the little things I do personally
Best
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 10:38am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Thanks Mike.
Allright that sounds reasonable, I was thinking about the part about the highest point sticking out a bit more also.
But the other part made me think. In my chart, market closed under parity. 8 pips under.
So wouldn't a entry 15 pips below that point 'filter' out any fakeouts?
Or is my reasoning a bit wrong here?
Thank Mike.
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yeah that sounds about right for a filter on this pair.
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 10:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool
thanks for clearing that up. 
I guess FX Pro or IBFX have better feeds
Hey Mike, does it make sense to use one broker for charting and another to place trades? Coz i have a live with alpari uk and was thinking of using you broker for charting
thanks 
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Hey BC
yes this is what I do. I do not chart with any of my live brokers. I use just random demo mt4 brokers
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 10:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Allright so no I've calculated my 2%. Stoploss above the BEOB and sell entry at 0.9976. Hopefully this one is working out.
Promising myself to stick to the Daily charts now, looking first at the different price action candles + divergence.
Lateron I will try some new things, just trying to learn everything from the beginning.
Oh, and almost forgot. Anyone looking at AUD/CAD Daily?
Almost the same thing there, and Mike, it closed under parity 
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hmmm
Check again Carnegie price hasn't been back under 1.000 for awhile on AUd/cad
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 11:13am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
My bad Mike, didn't look properly. And this might be a sign to me that I am in a hurry.
Anyway, just wanted to check with you if you thought the same thing about the AUDCAD (Daily) I posted in the other post.
I thought about what you said about parity and look at the AUDCAD.
2 weeks ago it was trading below parity (0.99) and it jumped up immediately to 1.1. Now it's divergence, wouldn't that be a sign or should we just keep away from anything not closing under parity?
Just want to learn how you guys trade, sorry for all of the questions....
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Remember divergence is just a heads up. It can give you an idea but I still need more then that. Aud/cad I wouldn't ever trade back into parity personally. I would watch the 1.000 level for hints though.
Also I would recommend using an earlier close. You don't have to chart and trade on the same broker like me and Be Cool were just talking about. Oanda is one of my brokers I trade with but their daily closes at midnight and that includes a lot of dead time about 7 hours of it and in my mind that changes things a bit too much. Again just from experience but that is up to you though
Best
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 11:26am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool
Could you please elaborate Mike? What high needs to be tested and why? Is that how you always trade BEOB?
Thanks 
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Hey BC
I drew what I would want the high to look like and the close.
The reason is without it it is technically a beob in terms of how we define a beob, but things like where the high is or close are just as important if not more for me. If price was able to create a new high, it would have retested the orderflow above that last high, and showed the sellers are strongly coming in. Without that retest above the high it just doesn't give me as much confidence.
It's all about putting things in my favor as much as possible. Many trades will dow what I think ,but that doesn't make them worth putting my money behind, b/c it comes down to my overall trading as a whole in the long run. Not one trade, one week, one month.
So this is just one of the many little things I do to keep myself consistent
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 11:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool
Hey Mike, i need to borrow your expertise here. EUR/NZD Daily chart
Not the best PPZ but with TL and Fib confluence. First there is IB, then a bad shape PB, and then bearish bar. What am i looking at?
At first i thought the IB has a bullish bias with the rising TL and being at swing low, but after that ugly looking PB -i am lost. i don't even know why price had trouble breaking above the previous two bars
You know Mike, you have a way of explaining things very clearly - really enjoy your videos & posts   
thanks
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Hey BC
Thanks for the nice comments
I would say there isn't much to do right now but wait if one isn't already in. Were coming off strong bearish bars and today may close as a bearish outside bar indicating further downside. I would be looking to 1.7500 for potentially more info(which maybe a bounce and/or could breakout again to the downside and resume the trend.
I'll be watching the BRN
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 12:33pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool
From your videos, it seems the way you trade breakout is waiting for the support to break, wait for retest and look for bearish PA. Many of your chart examples the retest happen after many bars-giving the bearish PB some space.
My question is, let's say after the break the next bar is a retest bearish PB. Then it would be at swing low and not much space. Will you never trade this kinda PB?
and would your answer be different if the PPZ is major (like weekly or monthly) or if the consolidation is very large (stronger ghous' jack in the box) ?
thanks...
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it all depends on the setup really. There isn't one general answer unfortunately. I have played bars at every high low middle you can imagine. I play both reversals in tons of space, ones that would be called a lot of traffic. I try to build the story around my bars and then the bar is nothing more then a trigger point for me.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Nov 10, 2010 1:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
Thank you for your help on the EURGPB....
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So happy for you and your progress TJ, a true testament to hard work and dedication

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Nov 10, 2010 2:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveI
USDJPY, a bullish outside-bar. currently +70.
I think i should close the position around 82.80 because of a resistance.
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excellent Dave!
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Nov 11, 2010 2:59am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
And the Size wasn't bad either. I just shows that if it hits its target . .protect yourself. Will Price stop you out at break even or a small loss then go in your direction for a 1000 pips . . . it sure will. But the next time it won't and you have perserved your capital to ride it. 
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important post that will get passed by. Jarroo knows his stuff !
Don't get hung up on one trade, one movement, one win, one loss
Do it for the overall WHOLE of what you do
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Nov 11, 2010 10:31am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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My thank you to all the vets out there and my blessings with all those that were lost serving to give us all the freedom we often take for granted
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Nov 11, 2010 10:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uBERpIP
The EUR/CAD took a major fall from its September highs in the 1.60s, dropping all the way to mid 1.20s....
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Nice logical area to watch Uber
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Nov 11, 2010 10:51am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ahendon
Hi my name is Aaron and I am an overtrader.
HI AARON
I didn't intend to speak today....
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simply awesome 
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Nov 11, 2010 11:38am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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chart for C from the chat room
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Nov 11, 2010 2:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Mike is that chart for me.. I'm guessing I'm 'C'?
Anyway look what I found.
There is an attached chart of EURCHF Daily chart.
I have my checklist before I trade and lets see what confluence I have here and if you guys agree.
1. Pinbar
2. PPZ level (or trendline or support/restsance whatever you want to call it) and the round number of 1.3300.
3. 50% Retracement.
What do you guys think.. Is this smart or have I missed something here?
Thanks!
EDIT:
Oopsie.. forgot to remove that white little part in paint. In quite a hurry. Closed the...
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Hey Carneige
That was apost for cprao from the chatroom earlier today
As for eur/chf I like how you are trying to line up confluence but I think the bar is a very poor bar. While it qualifies for a pin just look how weak it looks. The nose barely protrudes out and the way the close is much under the open it more looks like a "bounce" then any strong reversal. Look for the stand out bars (as James refers to them the pitbull pinbars) that scream reversal. Yes price may well bounce here but we are trying to keep ourselves on the right side then get every move out of price.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Nov 11, 2010 3:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Okay Mike I won't take it because last time I did I screwed up. But some help here please if you have the time.
Is it a poor bar(and weak) because of it's SIZE? Okay I've never seen the 'pitbull pinbar' before, any idea where I can find them and read about them?
Quite embarassed here, to me that one screamed reversal
Thank you!
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Hey Carnegie
Try to take it past if a bar just qualifies as a pinbar, and into does this look like strong buying. We want the nose to protrude away from price and notice in this case it barely protrudes away from the prior bar, this is warning sign one. T he next is how weak it is closing and just sort of looks like price stalled out as opposed to reversal
Time and practice and seeing it over and over you will spot these things too. Might take you 6 months, might take you 6 years but it will happen if you spend enough time with this stuff. Of course you will see and doing things differently but you will do it for a reason(the key).
Where it stemmed from
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=39300
Those that struggle need to start with the obvious and build a foundation on the SUPER quality setups. Most just can't resist the urge to trade though.
Mike
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Nov 11, 2010 9:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dcart
Can't seem to get into a decent trade. Saw two pins yesterday on EUR/USD and USD/CHF, placed orders but thankfully they never got hit as price went off the other way.
I guess the weekly pin was too strong for the bulls to take over on the EU trade, although im not sure about the UC one. I tried to go with the direction of the trend, and saw these as minor pullbacks.
Am i missing something major here.... or is it just simply how forex is? lol
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Hey Dcart
The biggest issue I have is going back to what I was saying to carneige
In the case of the euro coming off a few very bearish days you had a very small reaction at a former support area giving a very small pin. Now it could have still well broke and probably would still make the FTA(marked). But still does this bar scream buy? Look for the pitbull bars they will save you much headaches.
As for usd/chf this doesn't qualify as a pin as technically price didn't close within the previous bar. But even still if it just did that signifies weakness. There is no strong authority on top of that. Remember the bar itself is just such a tiny part of what we need to do to formulate a successful trade plan.
If you are struggling stick to the big obvious bars and it will give you much more confidence in your entries
Best
Mike
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Nov 12, 2010 1:05am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aserbfx
hi guys.
hope you are all doing well.
i am back after nearly 3 weeks in hospital after a horrible car accident.
a truck crashed into my car and several others behind and in front of me at the end of a traffic jam on a german highway. about 7 people were injured.
i got several broken bones (rips, left forearm, etc.).
shows that nothing is more important in life than good health.
good trades
take care
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oh man so sorry to hear that al
Take care of yourself and glad that you will be ok
Be well friend
Mike
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Nov 12, 2010 10:32am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Chaos, just a couple of questions:
You say these BEOB are at unideal locations, what makes them unideal? Should they be at a swing high or low to be ideal?
And yes I will listen to Mike from now on but I wanted to ask if two setups after eachother raises the 'probability of profitability' or what the name is.. If it stacks more odds in our favour.
Let's say I missed out on the first BEOB, would the second one give me more incentive (more setups = more momentum) to take the trade.
But I do understand what you say, it's up to experience...
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Hey C
SC gave a great answer that will make more sense too as you continue to practice and grow as a trader. The learning curve as large and what seems confusing does get easier the more you see, do, ask about it all
I actually liked the second BEOB better based on the fact that this one at least could close below the parity level and coming into a friday where retracements of the current trend(profit taking) and riding those that get caught up can often see some more selling. So in a sense you are correct. multiple beobs like that in a row are signaling selling pressure, the key though is What else is going on around it, and is that alone worth to sell. The answer can be both yes and no. Then you move onto well where should price likely go, how am I going to react when it gets there(or if it doesn't etc).
So because the beob was still small and we are fighting a very strong up trend, I would look to the FTA as the previous bar high/low flip(area in blue) with it also lining up with the 9900.
Now there are a billion and one ways to manage this trade if you decided to take it. And even knowing all this for me personally even though I know where it is likely to go doesn't necessarily mean I would take it(I pass on a lot of trades as being picky with whatever you learn to do and following that is more important).
Have a nice weekend
Mike
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Nov 12, 2010 11:06am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leelar
Since this is james16 thread, are members of j16 group taught to disregard to news totally, or ppl can still use the news to find what the price acts certain way?
Attachment 579064
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Hey Leelar
You can ignore news, a lot of us do. I do personally. But many integrate the knowledge here into their knowledge of fundies and other things they have accumulated. I always say use something if it adds value, if it isn't get rid of it
Best
mike
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Nov 12, 2010 12:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Sorry for the double posting guys, I saw the post after I made the other comments.
This is what I was thinking also, that this one closed below the area(parity) that you said the first BEOB couldn't. And since there are two of them in a row, wouldn't this increase the probability.
But the thing is, all of you guys are correct in that I should learn to recognize S&R areas and PPZ before I trade because it seems to me as I always short into support and buy into resistance.
So there's some learning to me. It's just that right now in the beginning.....
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Very Natural
As you work through this thread(huge I know) you will see so many have the same concerns, worries, overwhelmed feelings. But it gets easier and easier with time. I think one can speed up parts of the learning curve, but some parts you just need to spend time with and sometimes a lot of time with. But let your passion for the markets drive you
Best
Mike
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Nov 13, 2010 11:40am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geniusztc
i just confused that ,when price go to the S&R area again , how can i know it will be breaking or reversing ??? how can i determine is it really breaking (reversing) of fake breaking (reversing) ???
i am so sorry to asking the foolish question ,but i just do not know .
thank you for your answer advance .
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Hey G
There is no way to EVER know for sure. WE can develop a good understanding and make good assumptions to throw the odds in our favor.
The more important thing is to realize where price CAN potentially have a bounce. Then you know areas to protect yourself. For example when we identify a very strong PPZ , then we stop trying to trade into those areas, and instead look to trade away from those areas.
Or when we are in a bar setup, and we see an area that has multiple bar/high/lows on it indicating support/resistance in the short term there we know that this could be an area price will react at again. If it breaks through, now you know where it may find support/resistance to help manage a trade.
Now certain things can help give us an idea, like the more time price starts banging up/down on an area in the short term(especially in a trending market) often it is a sign of a breakout to come.
So while we can't give a blanketed statement that if XYZ happens then price will break/not break. Visually we know areas that CAN have effects on price and through that we build a method that in the long run keeps us right more times then wrong. This is the key.
Best
Mike
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Nov 13, 2010 11:43am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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good exercises you all did !
NOTHING but price on your charts its a beautiful thing 
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Nov 14, 2010 7:22pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Hi guys,
Loading up this AUDJPY Daily trade for you guys to look at. What do you think?
This is my reasoning:
I have learned by the senior members that I should think more about the location and PPZ than the bar setup (it still should be a good bar).
So this is how I see it: this is a big pinbar.
Off Fib retracement + off PPZ at 81.00
And also the nearest S&R (do you guys call it FTA?) is around 84 as I see it.
Anyways, just look at the picture.
Thanks!
EDIT:
That guy is always logging on and off in MSN so never mind him. It's impossible...
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Hey C
Careful here, to be a pinbar remember the open and close need to be within the prior bar. So in this case we just have a bar with a tail so it can be mistaken for one.
As for eur/chf this is a much better bar, but as donkey said not one I would play personally because of trading back into the BRN of 1.35 which is something I avoid doing as they are strong PPZ areas.
Best
Mike
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Nov 14, 2010 7:33pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 666Doom
Mike correct me here.
Bryan has a query, am i the only person feeling bad about that GU beob he is talking about.
Regards
Taz
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Hey Taz
You are correct for a beob we want the close to be near the lower 1/4 portion of the bar. That bar could be deemed one of ghous IPB type bars but in a lot of chop. I would continue to watch the 1.6 area and see which way price wants to breakout away from here
Best
Mike
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Nov 14, 2010 8:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Man, I never seem to find a good trade. I hate this.
And Mike another thing, I don't look at pinbars as you guys do (with all respect we all know that you are allot more enlightened than I) and this is because I have tested pinbars so much.
And by pinbar I mean that it doesn't really matter how the BODY is, rather the tail being 2-3X bigger than the body. That's how I see it and that's why I said that was a pin, but thanks for the heads up. Maybe your idea of pin is 'safer' than mine.
And how about that last chart? EURJPY
Donkey: Thanks...
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Hey C
That is fine everyone does things a bit different, this is James take on pinbars, and then I also interpret things based on his information. As we do here though you can also have proxy pinbars which don't need to close within the prior bar. But for the most part they are easier to spot and trade from doing this and seeing others progress with it.
As for eur/jpy this is a pin, but stuck in a heavy ranging box(see chart). Thus price can chop around and be difficult to manage. It could make it to the mid point of the box, chop all the way back down but possibly make it back to the high. So too choppy for me.
Don't forget C, one persons great trade is not always another persons. That is the discretionary aspect you have to practice and see and do what works for you. WHat James shares is what works for him, what I share is what works for me. But you will see certain key concepts that people tend to exploit and look out for as you go through the material in this thread.
Best
Mike
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Nov 14, 2010 8:02pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Sometimes trades have TONS of confluence, sometimes a bar is good enough on its own.
Here is a pitbull pinbar. No confluence here
Where is price likely to go first? 25 area on a break. Will it break and get through that? We don't EVER know for sure have to wait and see.
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Nov 14, 2010 8:30pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pwellsau
Hey Mike,
I was just looking at this one, my concern is that our stop is going to be quite large relative to the first trouble area. What is your thinking in this regard and do you still place you stop at the top of the PB?
Cheers
Paul
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I do Paul. It's just how I have always done things. You can also have a reduced stop as I don't see any reason to hold this if it comes to much higher then say half way up the bar(if it breaks). I like to keep it up top and then reduce my stop. This then helps reduce risk and is the way I do it. Some people use tighter stops and then take some off the table. This is just not what I personally do.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Nov 14, 2010 8:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pwellsau
Hey Mike,
Here's 2 more I have the same sort of problem with. If we play the break of the bars our FTA are fairly close.
Cheers
Paul
EUR/CAD - FTA 1.4?
EUR/AUD - FTA - Not sure? Any thoughts?
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Hey Paul
You have identified correctly the trouble areas on both of these. Because they are trading back up into BRNs here of 1.4 they are passes for me. But often price wants to retest them and could very well make it to them no problem. Just remember they are zones though and also don't get too over exposed in my opinion. So playing both with the theme of Eur/xxx and both trading into BRNs, can be double exposure in a sense. If one works the other will most likely and likewise if they struggle.
Best
Mike
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Nov 14, 2010 8:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
LoL.....That really cracks me up.
You think this is still a bullish PB in anyone's style?
Sure, the people that blow their accounts in under month.
Hey, maybe we should ask Jim to revise the PA basics. 
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Pin there is no need to laugh at anyone. Like Carnegie said he is learning and seeing and testing.
Technically speaking Jim also talks about proxy pins, and that could technically be a pinbar by proxy since it does have a long nose.
I think it is just easier to spot the very obvious pins and see if these work for one through testing
Were all here trying to learn the same thing, so we are all on the same side
Mike
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Nov 14, 2010 8:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I was not laughing at C,...It just struck me how funny that concept is of expanding PA rules that far.
Sorry if that is how it seemed.
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my bad then P
No worries it is a long road for those just venturing into it. But we have a great group that hang around here to make it a little bit easier that is for sure 
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Nov 14, 2010 10:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxknkw987
Thanks Mike for the explanation on the EUR/AUD and EUR/CHF.
I am watching those two and also the EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD....
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Hey KK
They all have some space for the most part. The negatives are the BRNs trading into for me, and EUR/NZD coming off a very strong down move. Although I like it off the BRN, only engulfing one prior bar has me staying aside here too. Overall I think they will all move in tandem for the most part so don't get over exposed(this is a general statement)
Best
Mike
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Nov 14, 2010 11:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
I had dinner with a friend on Friday who works as a dealer for a CFD house. So, in between copious amounts of sake and shochu, we got to talking about trading, and the stupid things we have seen people do. On the way home, thanks to weather delays, I had plenty of time to think about things and got to typing.
This year has easily been my most profitable ever. The part I devote to straight PA trades has had a total return of 112% over the past 12 months. My entries and exits in other areas were much, much better than my old...
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Holy crap what a post buddy! 
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Nov 15, 2010 11:04am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plund
Hi Mike!
Seems like the brokers 4 hour close has changed. Have to find a new one. Please let me know if you find one.
/plund
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Hey Plund
I am using currently
MBtrading
FXpro
IBFX
Alpari UK
Best
Mike
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Nov 15, 2010 11:17am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychosis
(First paragraph is long and just about me, feel free to skip it)
Hey everyone, I've been studying this thread (mostly the main posts that were linked to from the first post) and the videos in the guest section since Friday and was hoping you could give me some feedback on my chart observations. I've been studying forex mostly from this forum and a few books on and off for about a year now (Still haven't live traded and I'm not planning to for at least 6 more months). I'm just getting out of the stage where I was looking for my own super secret...
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Hey psychosis
Welcome I remember the days of burning the midnight oil
Here would be my run down on the eur/usd
Firstly the Pinbar, glad you passed, it never broke the high so not valid. To me the biggest issue is the size coming off the previous 3 days of very strong bearish bars. It had more of a stall feel then a reversal. Now if price broke the high of the bar the FTA(first trouble area) is actually where you marked you would have stuck an entry. I would recommend not sticking an entry so high above a bar b/c in general an area of that distance can also be into where the FTA is and then you would be buying right at the point "price is likely to go".
As for the DBHLC, I had questions on this one, and in my eyes the Highs of those two bars are too far apart that it just looks like a bearish day. Again the interpretation of some things will come down to the individual. As for that bar and location the traditional location we want these bars are at swing highs, where this is a swing low. This is how James teaches us and although you can trade them anywhere, it is always in my opinion to learn them the way Jim teaches first to get comfortable with everything.
Your lines are all good though and you can see the "boxing" around your lines which is very important. The pinbar would be trading inside a box where the DBHLC is trading away from a box(a good thing).
Hope that helps
Mike
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Nov 15, 2010 11:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by antgal23
Hi all
Ive been away from the thread for 3 weeks as I needed to reread James' charts / demo
Ive spent like 3 hours trying to catch up with the thread. I wanna thank the contributions from Mike, Pinbar, Jaroo , Ghous and Joel for opening my eyes.
It is unreal how much we forget to look at when we demo / live trade i.e. BUOB retrace trades, boxing consolidation as a way to see PPZ and S and R, WIPLTG?
Speak soon
Anthony
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Hey Anthony
Good to see you around, yeah it's a process. Sometimes you get one thing, then takes awhile to get the next piece. Then you have to learn to put those pieces together. The mistakes are always going to be there, we just try to minimize so in the LONG RUN we can come out on top.
Best
Mike
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Nov 15, 2010 11:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by john225
Is the EURAUD Weekly PinBar not to small if we take a look on the previous bar it is much bigger.
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Hey John
That pin is very small in my opinion vs the strong down move we are in. If it breaks it should get up towards 1.4 so it will depend on trader style. It is still smaller then that previous bearish bar too.
Again the question I always tend to ask back at people are. If you are struggling, is this bar being picky enough? (there is no right or wrong answer, but there is a better answer in my eyes personally)
Hope you all had a nice weekend(I got to grab beers with one of our members from south africa how cool!)
Mike
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Nov 15, 2010 2:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
Mike (and all other breakout traders), I've got a question to you regarding breakout trades with retest of the TL/PPZ. I'm sure I have read the answer somewhere on this thread or have seen it on your chart multiple times but I can't remember. It goes like this:
If there is a breakout, say a trend breakout and a subsequent retest of the TL. Do you still want to see the exact same PA characteristics as you want...
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Hey Han
In general I am less strict on my bar criteria with breakout trades. For me the number one thing is pattern recognition with breakouts and then waiting for the breakout and pullback. I am more willing to loosen up my criteria. Those would be fine bars IF the area you defined is worth a breakout(again my criteria and yours will probably be very different so speaking generally)
Best
Mike
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Nov 15, 2010 9:55pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Is it at a Swing High, where we want to see them?
Hope this helps.
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Yep continuations can be a bit trickier in my eyes
also by the looks , I believe it doesn't have a higher high so it would be an inside bar. It can be tricky since it has that "look" of a pinbar, but is just an inside bar.
Best
Mike
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Nov 15, 2010 11:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool
Hi guys
Not sure what went wrong with this one. Minor PPZ at 1.7500 which also a round number, has confluence with 76.4 ret and TL. Price bounced off and formed BUOB. Almost stopped me out but now at -115 I am considering closing this position.
Any ideas?
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Hey BC
Here was my view on this one
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=80049
Did you see where it stalled though?
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Nov 16, 2010 2:01am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveI
Hi
This is my trade on Soybean (weekly chart). We also have a BEOB on daily.
Does it look nice?
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Hey Dave
It's a decent pinbar at a swing high, not much in way of confluence. As for FTAs we really want to pick the very first areas so I would go with 1240 as the very first with the bar high(especially coming into a strong trend), with the more logical BRN of 1200 being the more obvious area(or at least pretty logical to me)
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Nov 16, 2010 10:56am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Pinbar, remember when you gave me many ideas on how to find PPZ's and I told you that I see PPZ(S&R on round number) everywhere?
Well I found a chart that shows that pretty well!
Look at the Daily USDCAD chart. Thats exactly the type of chart I mean that I see S&R everywhere on!
If you look at the chart I attached, you will see that (most likely) my PPZ's doesn't look at all like then ones you would have drawn on it.. or?
To me, my chart looks like a birdcage.. It would be impossible to trade on this chart wouldn't it? So could you please...
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ahhh but now here is a simple lesson for you that I never forget to see
If price is that crazy what is it probably donig? Ranging. Look at that huge mess of consolidation. We MUST MUST MUST be aware of the environment ahead of us. The odds price will continue to chop around it is always going to be greater in this time of mess. I choose not to trade in this stuff. Others love it, but they are well aware of it. Most people have not a clue the market is ranging so hard and their account goes down down down.
Best
Mike
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Nov 16, 2010 12:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
How's that Short Silver Weekly Doing ? 
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we'll see if it can get some legs past the 25 mark
Hiya Bill
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Nov 16, 2010 2:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stewrigh
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lol I can't even watch this it makes me dizzy
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Nov 16, 2010 2:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
FTA hit
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Nov 16, 2010 4:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
Euro-USD
The drop has stalled for now ! I look and I see no stopping point at this stage other than 50% retrace ment from august low. I say a retracement is due , I mean meaningfull retracement ..bak towards 1.38 - 1.42 this area should be storng resistance . Whats your take on it , picture will tell thousand words if you can thanks.!
Cheers
V
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Hey V
We have a nice box above us like you said. Certainly an area sellers will look to hop back in. , and now sitting on 1.35
any lower and it seems 1.33 is in the works
Best
Mike
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Nov 16, 2010 4:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
Hey dd, what's up.
I'd be careful with that setup... it's better if the close of the bar is above the prior bar's high (see chart). It also got rejected by a ppz causing the weak close.
I attached GBP/JPY which appears to (structurally) be a sound DBHLC. Also, notice the highs are off a PPZ and the close is below the low of the prior bar.
Hope this helps,
-- Danny
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Yep technically speaking as per J16 for a DBLHC the close must close above the previous bars high
Mike
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Nov 16, 2010 5:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
That's a good advice, so you wouldn't have taken that BUOB right at the end of the USDCAD + divergence and PPZ and VBRN(parity)?
The way I see it is this: in trending markets we look for continuations and in consolidating market we look for reversals.
And also I wonder, would it be possible to drop down a couple of timeframes and trade it? See my view of the market is that it's fractal, and when I look at USDCAD hourly, these are trends of their own.
How do you look at this? Or do you only trade the breakout from consolidations?...
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Hey Carnegie
For me each timeframe I do my individual analysis specific to it. Each timeframe can have its own situation playing out and relative to that. So while usd/cad may be a daily choppy mess the 1hr may present great opportunities.
As for when to trade what type of bar. I have traded every type of situation in every type of environment. To me this is situational. When a market gets as choppy as USD/cad for the most part I am looking for when that market gets outside the range, but it still depends. I never rule out any situation till I see it. Generally I find if I am picky it will keep me out of so-so trades that I may regret later on.
Best
Mike
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Nov 16, 2010 7:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imphilomath
Hi Pinbar,Jaroo and Mike,
I am trying to apply what I learnt to mark ppz/SRs. I really think that is the...
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This looks real good and usd/cad is very choppy right now making it more difficult for people to see the s/r flips since there by the nature of the environment more
Keep it up
Mike
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Nov 16, 2010 7:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
You are getting there...
I also am practicing keeping it simple.
Notice, how Jarroo has only a couple of lines on his chart but, they are at extremely good areas.
I am currently doing this exercise and limiting myself to only 3 lines.
Sometimes, we can see more with less.
Keep at it.
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Yep Very good PB
Just cause we can draw a lot of lines doesn't mean to trade off all of them. One great line can be more powerful then 10 other lines b/c it helps focus our attention to the obvious clean areas.
Mike
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Nov 16, 2010 8:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnegie
Hey mikey!
Could you check the prior page? I uploaded two charts that were of interest to Me. Would like your input ?n those two!
Thanks.
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Hey Carnegie
Gbp/jpy is of very little interest in my opinion . It would be a stretch on my feed to call it a DBHLC, really not much confluence or else to go by.
Cad/jpy is a bit more interesting since price in wedging up and now its off the upper wedge. But the wedge also signifies consolidation(been stuckin a range for awhile now) which then means price could chop around. A break should see us near 81, but these aren't the bars to get too carried away with. Only engulfing one bar, and a personal preference for me is a close below the previous bar(although that is my thing). For me not a very interesting market environment. Be more interested in a break of the double low, or a break out of the wedge and PA around both those areas.
Hope that helps
mike
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Nov 16, 2010 9:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PenguinTrade
I haven't had much time for study lately, but I still check the charts at market close every day. Lately its been a bit rough, but I caught this BUOB on the USD/JPY. I'm taking a longer term perspective now, I hope to go live in a year, maybe 2, rather than in a few months.
I post this because this is the first trade I've held for more than 2 days. My FTA was incorrect/not reached, so I took half off on the first day. 1/2 still running. Target at a Weekly PPZ.
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Awesome Penguin, I almost pulled the trigger on that one(looks even better on fxpro feed). But very good use of pivot zones to manage your trade.

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Nov 17, 2010 12:30am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Mike, I have not noticed this BUOB before ,. but when taking a look at it now--
It did engulf 4 bars.. and almost at swing low..
But the close is NOT really strong.. Mike, what made you to pull (almost) the trigger ? wanted to know the story behind your trading decision .
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Hey C
Basically it was that 80 was being defended very hard and we had a large range. I was looking for a bit lower low on the BUOB or higher close and just ended up passing. The FTA was very clear so I almost did but since I was in a bunch of other trades I just passed.
Logical area though
Mike
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Nov 17, 2010 12:30am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
If you get a hard break thru a PPZ how much weight do you give to its strength next time it reaches that area? If it was only hit 1 or 2 times would you ignore it or wipe it from your charts?
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Hey Spookie
I guess it really depends on the scenario. Any charts?
Thanks
Mike
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43 Traders Viewing This Thread (16 are members)
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Adilius07, HanSolo, Bethel, RandomGamble, triger88990, fxtsun, jwm888, HxMark, plund, lafemo, Pinbar, ppfx, Kika, alexpop, crespoh, doogal
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