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james16 Chart Thread
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Oct 23, 2010 10:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albinas
Good morning,
Guys, I have a question. I quite often hear terms "weak close" and "strong close". I thought I understand them, but now I have doubts about that.
Let's take a Beovb for example. I thought that strong close is when second bar closes lower than the low of the first bar, and weak close is when 2nd bar just closes below the open of first bar. (as in the chart attached).
But what do those terms really mean?
Thank you for your time,
and here goes a joke:
A sign on the door of brokerage:
[font="]Dear clients, please respect your...
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When we say a strong close, we mean a close on the PA bar that is very near/at its low for a bearish setup and a close very near/at its high for a bullish setup.
So in that chart the the BEOB on the right is a strong one not just because it closed below the low of the prior bar but also because it closed very near its own low.
Hope that clears things up.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 23, 2010 10:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
Jarroo, I just read Ghous' explanation on the psychology behind IPB but still I don't fully understand. Would you mind explaining it to me?
Looking at the IPB you just posted I'd intuitively say that bears are taking over. How come one should expect it to go up?
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Jarroo, I just read Ghous' explanation on the psychology behind IPB but still I don't fully understand. Would you mind explaining it to me?
If I may...
Actually Mike was kind enough to do a video for me at the PF where I asked him why big bars have a tendency to hold back on breaking hard and sustaining breaks and that got him going on order flow concepts including the logic behind IPBs.
What happens is, when a strong, say up trend get's obstructed by sudden bearish action it tends to eat up the order flow in that area even though you see that the bar closes higher leaving behind only a wick, truth is that wick does tend to give a heads up for more bearish orders to come in and occupy the "now vacant space". Then again you got to make sure the bears have a very good reason to come into the market (i.e location and confluence needs to be spot on).
Same is true for a very large BEOBs and strong BUBs and BEBs. You will tend to see that price often retraces into the bar (weak buying/selling, profit taking...)
Advanced stuff, and no one really needs a good hang of all this info to trade IPBs (and PA) well, but just because the question was raised, thought I'd chime in...
Looking at the IPB you just posted I'd intuitively say that bears are taking over. How come one should expect it to go up?
Agreed. Jarroo, again has that BIG..no I mean BIG edge in terms of experience that he has, once he understood the logic behind these bars he's been on top of them with his charts and insights. His experience provides him with the skills he needs, to take less than A+ setups literally whenever he wants and nail them down with his exceptional trade management.
A bullish IPB as the one Jarroo talks about, is best taken at a swing low, or in trend-less sideways markets, with enough set of supporting confluences.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 23, 2010 11:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arsa
To all seniors here
do you guys rely more on probability or RR?
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RR is bogus.
Think about this...
Which trade would you prefer better?
one that gives you a potential 1:2 with 30% chances of success?
OR
one that gives you 1:0.5 with 90% chances of success?...that's how sure you can get with neat setups with the method, and which makes RR look like a concept for the retards.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 23, 2010 2:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arsa
you just called me a retard mate  though i make money with RR.
Just wanted to get another point of view here.
Art
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I didn't...or at least...didn't mean to.
All I am saying is the potential probability factor is a lot more important than risk reward, which directly answers your question.
RR in itself has no meaning if you don't combine it with "chances of success" or what you call "probability" and it turns out sniping for 50 solid pips at 0.5R instead of 200 lucky ones at 3R is a good way to ensure you would still be trading 5 years from now.
I was (and am) kinda tired after my exam today, and hurried into that post a bit.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 23, 2010 10:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
What are you studying Ghous ?
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nothing big...as yet.
just a first degree in business administration.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 23, 2010 10:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
Hey Ghous,
Where is the video you mention in the PF? Is it a weekly webinar. I watch / attend most webinars ..just making sure i didn't miss this one.
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Mike's section ---> Beginner Q&A subsection ---> Video Q&A thread ---> post 122 (Qs) and post 124 (Mike's gold nugget)
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 23, 2010 10:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ^eagle^
Hello,
I have been trading for about two years....
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hey Eagle, Feel yourself at home and take your time to absorb the information contained in the thread. Do not hesitate one bit to shoot anything that bugs you at all.
Welcome aboard.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 23, 2010 11:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kwikwis
Hey Ghous!
This IPB on weekly (FXCM feed) E/U has BRN and FIB retrace,
do we need more PA on daily or just enter Monday at close of the bar with stop above the high and target at low of IPB ?
Thank you!
Attachment 566539
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Hey Kwi,
I'd first of all second S chaos's suggestion to stay away from trading IPBs until you get a good hang of the basics,
But just to answer the question,
The weekly IPB does look good for sure. It's not at a true swing high (the prior bar marked the swing high) but it's right off the 1.4 which is providing all the resistance. Furthermore there is some genuine fib confluence in this region which makes it even more interesting.
It could be a fair play perhaps with a stop above the prior bar's high instead of a conventional one X pips above the IPB.
I'll be watching this like a hawk.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 24, 2010 7:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kwikwis
Thanks for your answer!
but same question though are going to look for PA at lower time frames or enter from weekly's close?
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Entry would be from the weekly close. I don't fine tune entries on higher TFs with lower TF PA.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 24, 2010 7:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey
hope ghoust can share some step by step write up guidance on how to trade these dangerous IPBs.... a video would be great. 
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A video...hmmm...maybe...when I have time.
Can't promise but I'll try my best.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 24, 2010 7:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Oh!! great !! Means, MBA (Master in Business administration) ? Is it after 4/3 year degree course?.
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Since its a first degree its a Bachelors in Business Administration (BBA) degree. MBA would come later if i wish to pursue it, which seems highly unlikely. I am more inclined towards going for a professional certification like CFA.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 24, 2010 7:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Hey Ghous....You are not allowed to post the EU PPZ exercise ...This is only for newbies, like me..
You can be the judge if you would kindly do so. LOL
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Yikes! 
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 24, 2010 8:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yeah, I believe it is how Jarroo, Mike , SC & Ghous can say, I think price is going all the way to 1.58977 or whatever.
I also just watched a Seeking Light video for the 10th time, in which he says, "If you don't know where price is going to go before you take the trade, you shouldn't be taking it"!
Bone Chilling but very sobering.
Yeah, maybe we should start a sub thread just to practice PPZ. To not clutter this one up.
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those posts from guys like you and hans are doing everything but littering the thread up. The more you guys put this work up for the rest the more "silent lurkers" learn.
All I can do is encourage you guys to keep doing this... right here
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 24, 2010 10:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Ghous & SC, please gown your judicial gowns.
D3 and how it looks on H4.
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PPZs are spot on as usual,
and you know the bias is to the downside for me due to that weekly IPB  Not that I haven't been proven wrong before though
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
Last edited by ghous, Oct 24, 2010 10:30am
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Oct 24, 2010 10:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I have worked in the financial sector here and let me tell you there is s high demand for CFA's also a lot of people get fail in CFA level-2 but i am sure you can do it.
Anyway good luck. 
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I am aware of the difficulty level. Joel's made sure of that!
Honestly although I have only stepped into the field of finance I think it's my thing...
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
Last edited by ghous, Oct 24, 2010 10:30am
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Oct 24, 2010 10:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Thanks for the thumbs up G.
Well, I think I have put in over 14 hours today, I am getting a beer out.  
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Impressive...your charts, posts and insights delineate the hard work you put in.
Keep it going P
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 24, 2010 10:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
I know, even high probability setups fail now and then or don't break out of various reasons. But while practicing my chart reading skills I found this PB on 4h GU and wondered if it would be possible to forecast it's failing simply by looking at the naked chart.
Of course, technically speaking it came from a downtrend and the close of the PB could have been higher but do you see any other signs of this PB failing/not breaking?
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Think of it like this...
(and I am not making it up, it's how the big guy wants you to look at your PA bars)
A PA bar only looks like a PA bar until it get's validated by a break in the right direction.
Everything about your analysis and decision making regarding a trade setup applies only when and if the bar breaks.
Trust me, having a general view of where price is headed and why it bounces off a PPZ is one thing, and thinking and thinking and thinking over why every PA bar you see worked/did not work is entirely a different ball game, and one you don't need to be involved in... at least for the time being.
Keep it nice and simple for now, and focus on the important locations and obvious bars at these locations.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 25, 2010 4:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yeah, today....My wife just took me out for a wonderful lunch, bought a couple of nice bottles of Bordeaux on the way back. It is  Time.. 
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Happy Birthday man!!
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 25, 2010 6:33am
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IPB disclaimer
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Not keeping records I just looked around.
I think it is best to go with the flow with the market and not even think about trying to do battle with it.
Also, the IPB has a lot of other crucial factors to it, so it is best to get the other stuff down first. I am sure the inventor Ghous, will agree.
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Please read the Signature.
Everything is there.
(no pin bar I didn't copy your post. Look closely, Mine's in bold  )
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 25, 2010 6:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
Exactly. Why take more difficult, harder to understand and harder to execute setups when there is a ton of low hanging fruit out there.
If Mike and JimJarroo can limit themselves to good bars in good locations, the rest of us trying to use MIT triggered option spreads to to touch trade a fib retracement on a trendline intersection with a PPZ because we see confluence with the Nikkei...well, we look kinda like a 14yo kid at McDonalds trying to cook like Keller.
(just quietly, thats how professionals think too - risk, then reward. Find something...
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Jeez...that's some post
AwesoFloggLuteAmaBrillantly put.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 25, 2010 10:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I think it needs to be larger and in RED to instill fear!
Or like this...
Reminds me of the movie Reefer Madness. 
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I almost fell of my chair laughing.
Thnx for the tears.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 26, 2010 8:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
hey Supreme,
did u reverse ur initial long ....... 
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WO wo wo...
The snail's on NOS?!
Great chart/trade!
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 26, 2010 3:20pm
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Rock N' Roll!
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 26, 2010 3:26pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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Only Dragon's got nice hair. 
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 26, 2010 10:47pm
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Pin bar at a swing high.
Not the best in the world but it clearly pays to know your targets well. Where was price going when the pin bar broke? Any surprises?
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 26, 2010 10:48pm
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Daily pin bar on EU. OFF the 1.4 BRN (IPB on the weekly too)
Areas of interest marked.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 26, 2010 10:56pm
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It's the same old stuff over and over and over again.
BEOB off the 150 and the TL with a strong close below 113. What does the next bar do? Where does it stall? What is the current bar doing?
Simple questions with simple answers
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 1:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Ghouse, the area your Sell stop is at confuses me a little.
It appears as if the order is right on a flip area of former support and resistance? Can you explain why you consider the BEOB is going to break through it? Looks like price is starting to go sideways. We also had a previous PB off the 150 but, it could not break through that area. This is why I am asking.
EDTI: On looking again, I see the PB did not close below the 113 unlike the BEOB.
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very very good question. Tells us you're doing exceptionally well with learning the material.
I see that PPZ you point out. What got me to place the order on the BEOB was the strong close (a sharp contrast to the PB you mentioned in the second chart that failed to close below the BRN) below the 113 level and the prior bar's low. What I am headed for is the conspicuous 111.5 region and those 2 matching lows sticking out like a sore thumb.
Price is looking to go sideways here but I am still going to keep in the order unless we break above 113. The flip side being that if we can break below to the downside and the order get's hit I'll be watching it carefully for a hard and sustained break of the BEOB, and sort of just take it from there.
I am kinda stuck with my marketing exam syllabus, so let me know if all of this sounds too muddled up and you're still confused.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
Last edited by ghous, Oct 27, 2010 2:05am
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Oct 27, 2010 2:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Thanks Ghous, that clears things up a lot.
I think you are ignoring that Sunday bar, so Friday is the bar you are talking about.
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yeah. That Sunday bar has to be ignored...always. 
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 2:27am
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We're at 1.38
Stop to BE.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 2:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Target hit G . . .as usual . . 
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Amazing. 
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 2:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo;4125584[B
]Hello Ghous, I confess I'm a little bit confused about you pointing this out. Since spotting relevant trends for J16 trading is giving me a headache lately I wondered why you considered it in spite of the long uptrend on the daily. Is it just that you're risk awareness differs from the other traders or is there anything I miss on this chart? I know there's divergence, but is it so relevant in this case?[/b]
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I am going to get back to you on this, 2 hours to go for my marketing exam and I got 4 more chapters to read (yeah, it's not my thing but I need to pass ) so hang in there.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 1:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
Hello Ghous, I confess I'm a little bit confused about you pointing this out. Since spotting relevant trends for J16 trading is giving me a headache lately I wondered why you considered it in spite of the long uptrend on the daily. Is it just that you're risk awareness differs from the other traders or is there anything I miss on this chart? I know there's divergence, but is it so relevant in this case?
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Hey Hans,
That was far from an A+ pin bar. I see a huge up trend and a small pin bar that get's even more tinier when compared with the up trend. No way can one expect it to turn the up trend around...well...it can...but again we're not trading this pin bar with fingers crossed and our a$$es at the edge of the chair hoping it would reverse the up trend. We need good logic...very good logic when we're trying to catch trend reversals of such dominant trends.
Get the point? No you didn't. read through the above para...
Still don't get it....read through again...one more time.
Yup! That's it. I said " we're not trading this pin bar with fingers crossed and our a$$es at the edge of the chair hoping it would reverse the up trend"
keyword is underlined.
For traders starting out with the j16 method, nothing beats the patience you learn by waiting for the A+ trades, or the confidence you get by "hanging on to a runner". Its this knowledge upon which you can later on in your career build a trading system tailor made to suit your own personal style.
I trade a little more aggressively than some traders here but that doesn't mean I'll take that AUDCAD pin bar and hope for it to push price down like a dropping stone.
Conservatism is an important part of successful trading. When you can afford to be a bit lenient on your entry criteria the screws have to tighten up in your trade management.
I took full profit at the 1.000 BRN and because I am looking for that quick pull back to the 1.00 I felt I didn't need the best pin bar the pair had ever seen to indicate that to me. Again its a matter of personal trading style and...chart time of course.
You have absolutely no need to get overwhelmed or fret over trades others are taking which you never saw, Hans. Remember there is no "system" here at the thread, its a "method". What's A+ for one j16er might be untradable for another j16er and they both know their trade management styles to create that edge they need for long term survival.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 1:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
what a crap exam, disturbing ghous' trading. lol
btw, seems like u are reading this thread more than those 4 chapters. 
Good luck.
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So true...
Sometimes I wonder what freedom is, and despite us claiming that we're free, are we really...well...free? 
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 1:35pm
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Order get's hit.
We now watch eagerly at where the daily closes Pin Bar. We want a strong close so we know price is looking to break your PPZ.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 1:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
on the bright side,
working or studying have some good effects on us:
-it gives us a framework, or a routine to revolve on. (school-related examples: wake up at x:xx, go back home around x:xx; daily math class 1hour, science class next for 1 hour also... blablabla)
-it instills & maintains discipline. (u have to go to school/work daily; cant play or watch tv too much, blablablah)
-among other things
somehow these (routine, imposed discipline, etc) are the things that are lacking or at least have been reduced in my life right now.... me being out...
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Can't believe a lifestyle so sexy. Wow lol. So you're already living your dreams...well except perhaps the Veyron as the only subtraction for a short while I guess
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 1:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenhaze
Just took a full bar loss on 4h pinbar. The location was very good imo and shape beside the close being under the open wasnt bad aswell. I was going to take some of the table and move stop to be at 1.3875 but sadly price didnt make it there. Sometimes it is painfull to watch how one trade can erase gains from previous two.
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1387 does seem like a logical level to be used for trade management, but I would watch out for those three bar lows sticking out on the left specially when the trigger bar itself wasn't all that good looking (close below the open)
Either ways just learn from your mistakes and move on buddy
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 9:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
Hey Ghous,
impatience is not the reason why I'm asking all these dumb questions. The reason why I may sound fretful even about things I don't know how to trade yet and that would surely burn my fingers, is that I am keen to understand what happens on the screen and try to get to the bottom of it. I know it all boils down to experience and doin it yourself, but I still hope that's ok and my questions are no p in the a. Reading and writing here just speeds up learning big time and I really enjoy it. Besides I hope that some other newbies may benefit...
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You're not being a p in the a or making a fool of yourself. That was a very good question you asked. It shows that you are attending to the "why?" part during your learning and that alone will take you a long long way.
No question ever is a stupid one so keep em' comin'!
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 27, 2010 10:01pm
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Eu weekly IPB:
Missed my tp (1.3730) by 5 pips. Stop in the green just above the 1.39 RN.
Eu daily PB:
Missed by TP again by 4-5 pips, TP was same was the IPB - 13730 or just above those 2 matching lows. Stop in the green above 1.38 in case it does not hold.
Ej BEOB:
We did not get a strong close and the stop get's tightened to just above 113.00. 112.3ish area seems to be holding up at least for now.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 28, 2010 7:51am
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Eu daily Pb stopped out.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 28, 2010 7:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Hey Ghous, on the weekly of E-J price made a PB last week at the RNB @ 11200. Although this PB hasn't been validated yet, isn't your daily trade against this PB ? Wouldn't a better option be to look for bullish PA on the daily at some keylevel and then trying to preempt the break of the PB ?
May the force be with you.
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Hey Zhang,
I tend to keep my time frames separate and independent. A retracement within a weekly PB or an OB can be an opportunity on a lower TF, so just like a weekly BUOB won't make a shoddy PB on the 4H or daily appeal to me any more than what I see on the chart, a weekly bullish PB won't make a tradable bearish setup untradable for me either.
Just the way I go about things.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 28, 2010 10:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by damien100
Took this H4 trend continuation trade/triangle break long
Previous pattern was a DBLHC ,close below .75 BRN.
The DBH closed above the .75BRN ,PPZ, at 61.8% Fib and the Triangle.
Major Trend Is upwards
.7515 Entry
.7475 SL
.7539 TP
Any Critic appreciated
Cheers
D
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What you expertly did in that trade was identify the trouble area very well, and didn't get carried away in trying to ride a "momentum breakout" given that we're trading in a sideways market.
An entry I would never take (not my style) so can't comment on that but a true master stroke in taking a careful note of the TP.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 28, 2010 10:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
I don't know if this trade will work out, but the odds of it failing are higher because you took a long at a swing high. Why is this important? Because your FTA was close... and price is likely to get rejected at or near this area.
I would definitely stick to the timeframe you took the trade in. Going to lower timeframes only confuses things.
I don't use EMA's, so can't comment on that.
Hope this helps,
-- Danny
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Love the way your charts portray the art Danny.
Nice work.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 28, 2010 12:42pm
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Stopped out on Eu IPB.
(Stop was just above 1.39 and got hit)
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 28, 2010 10:39pm
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Stop to 112.65 after I took this pic, which eliminates almost all the risk on the trade.
We gave one last push to the 113 yesterday.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 29, 2010 5:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Stop to 112.65 after I took this pic, which eliminates almost all the risk on the trade.
We gave one last push to the 113 yesterday.
g.
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Mission accomplished
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 30, 2010 11:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Ok, this is to start the ball rolling on this Sunday morning with a "Where is this bar going" question.
By, where is it going, we mean where is the next bar likely to go.
There is a great prize for the winner of this quiz!
That prize being, becoming proficient at working out your likely FTA targets of any given bar. Nothing to be sniffed at as this means, you are much less likely to get your SL hit before you get a chance to go BE & take partial or full profit.
Ok, I will not mention which pair or when this...
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Good stuff.
I don't think I am allowed to play? lol
(You got more data or you'll make us wait a week for the answer?  )
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 30, 2010 11:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Hey Ghous, well maybe you shouldn't answer this one, but hey, you can give me a quiz. 
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Where's this heading? (daily chart)
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 30, 2010 11:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Hey Ghous, well maybe you shouldn't answer this one, but hey, you can give me a quiz.
EDIT: No, ok Ghous, you answer this one and then post another one.
This will show new people a good example of how to go about thinking about it.
I have already charted up my opinion as to why it went where it did.
I will post my thoughts on it as soon as you answer it.
Go for it Ghous.
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This would be my take. the darker areas are the ones I would give more weight. If the BUOB pulls back (we don't have the strongest of closes on the bar) the bar lows marked under the BUOB close will very much come into play.
A break should help see us the more obvious bar lows marked by the other darker region with some possible resistance near that bar high marked by the lighter zone.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 30, 2010 11:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Ok, I will now get this completely wrong and show people not to be afraid of being wrong. That is a great way to not have any responsibility. LoL
Here you go.
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WRONG!
You're wrong when you say "Ok, I will now get this completely wrong" 
You hit the nail on the head man!
Remember the good setups will usually always make it to their FTA.

EDIT: This was IBFX Euro/Usd 30 Oct 2008
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 30, 2010 11:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Hmmm, I think Ghous needs a more tricky one.
Let's try this..
Daily and I put the low in.
SOrry the Low is a mistake it is actually 1.62600
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Looks like we have some spatial concerns to deal with.
I see a short term 3rd touch of an RTL (deadly!) in confluence with an S/R flip.
If at all I would take that trade it would be a quick one right into that pink area.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 30, 2010 11:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Would you like to see more data? More zoomed out?
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Nah!
Let's just keep it simple and based on a bar to bar analysis for FTAs and "where price is going".
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 30, 2010 11:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
You guys mind if I play? Here's my chart... multiple choice from me
Huge BEOB engulfing 4 bars after a nice uptrend. Where is she likely to go?
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Nothing from me now.
You guys gotta come up with the answer Albinas, Sheph, Goldenfishie...the invisibles common, let's keep the "what if we get it wrong" worries aside and let's learn.
This is a  exercise.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 30, 2010 11:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Ok ,,,,here it is.
I think you were very logical with that area Ghous.
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I see.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 31, 2010 12:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Ok ,,,,here it is.
I think you were very logical with that area Ghous.
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Can't help notice what the next bar did.
Makes you go...
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 31, 2010 12:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Yes, that is why I thought your area was very logical.
BT....In the original post I asked that we keep this to no shorter TF than H4 as we don't want to encourage newbies like me to start trading H1.
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I agree let's keep it to higher time frames.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 31, 2010 1:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I think I inadvertently threw Ghous off by saying he needs a more tricky one.
The market does not say it is tricky or not and so, I think I biased ghous to that setup. Let's not say anything about the bar but perhaps we shuld avoid IPB as we can not see price.
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I think we can include price levels.
(Exclusion of IPBs is still a good idea IMO)
what do you guys think about this one? (daily chart)
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 31, 2010 1:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
I think I inadvertently threw Ghous off by saying he needs a more tricky one.
The market does not say it is tricky or not and so, I think I biased ghous to that setup. Let's not say anything about the bar but perhaps we shuld avoid IPB as we can not see price.
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The markets do tell you that. Even if you were at this setup live, you would still see the PB packed in traffic and heading into an immediate S/R and trend line (if you use them) which would indicate that the PB isn't as good as ever can be.
This really is a great exercise for the newbies PB, maybe we can regularly hold such a thing at weekends for the sake of it.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 31, 2010 1:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Hmmmm, could be tricky.
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You got that right again.
Those 2 pivot areas is exactly where price flipped.
Simple isn't it?
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 31, 2010 1:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattfx
Hi ghous, pinbar long time...anyway just catchin up with the last couple of hundred posts, since my last post....nearly there.....
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Hey Matt,
it's good to have you around once again.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Oct 31, 2010 2:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pwellsau
Hi all,
Does anyone have any thoughts on this potential trade? GBP/DKK Weekly bullish bar at swing low, through BRN.
My second question is a bit off topic but any help or where to look would be appreciated....
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very nice indeed. I'd watch for the 8.7
(no idea about the second question)
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 2:40am
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Where is this going folks?
(daily chart)
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 2:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
That is a hard one Ghous, so I am not holding my breathe on this one.
Here you go.
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Anyone else wants to add/subtract something?
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 3:05am
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Pin Bar's bang on target!
Adilius your final TP is a pretty logical one, though of course we can't "bet" on such a long term take profit. I know you didn't which is great!
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 3:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Hey Ghous, would you kindly do us a Great favor and talk a bit about consolidation boxes?
Yummmmy Yummy..... 
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umm...like my general view point on them and how I use them or you want something more specific?
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 3:23am
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I would love to but you'll have to give me sometime.
I am going into the 4-5 hours for which i wait an entire year. Its not related to Academics or trading.
I'll be right back after that and I'll remember to do a post or two.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 3:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Festival eh....No problem Ghous...Thanks.
I will try and show Adi what I mean, in the meantime.
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...and you'll hit the nail on the head so hard I will have little to speak about after that.
But, yeah go on mate...
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 10:26am
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BOX trading
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Adi, look at the top and bottom of the boxes and the PA there on the daily TF.
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This is exactly how I use the consolidation boxes.
One thing I'd like to clarify before I begin is that I don't use boxes extensively, but they will catch my attention immediately when they are obvious.
How I understand them is just what the name suggests "Consolidation" box. That is they represent a period where price instead of riding a dominant bias in the market looks to hold up a bit and strengthen before it either reverses or continues on with the same trend. I look at these as "price breathers". The analogy of the spring is rather an effective measure to understand their dynamics. What do you get when you open a jack in the box . The shrieks I know...but it's that clown that's hiding in a coiled position within the box and that pounces at you once the spring is released when the box is opened that makes you go "Yikes!!". When price begins to go sideways it sort of is the same as you're pushing the clown into the box and trying to put the lid on. The breakout from the consolidation box is similar to the action packed jack in the box opening.
What makes them important is the fact that price never really does move in one direction strongly for ever. If you've traded for a week even, you would know this. It likes to stop, pull back, go sideways, resume, fake out in either direction...its mass psychology on the go, we know "man isn't the most sure and confident thing there is specially when it boils down to something as important as money".
Like I've already said I tend to work with them mostly when they are extremely obvious. A few other things that I look out for is the location at which the box is forming (round number, divergence, a heavy look etc) the length of time price stays in the box (the longer price stays inside the stronger is the breakout - definitely not always but often) and the lower and the higher range of the box. To me the box does not loose value once price breaks out of it. As pin bar shows in the chart above, a line drawn at the high and the low of the box itself can act as a wonderful PPZ even if it's not at a BRN. The logic is obviously pretty simple. The multiple touches at the low and high of the box make that very price level/s responsive and they tend to sustain this responsiveness if and when price decides to retest them later.
What do I do with these boxes and lines? Well clearly I stay away form a pin bar that's heading straight into a box and I take an outside bar that points towards a breakout from the box. The "box strategy" though isn't what my trading is based on entirely. I tend to merely use the box concept as a confluence factor, and to manage trades (taking profit at the high/low of a box for example)
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 8:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
Hey Ghous,
I would expect it to go south. First of all it closed below 1.5, it did not close above the three highs that happened just 2-4 weeks before (I imagine them as some kind of triple top on the daily) and it has to fight a huge downtrend. Probably a retrace to the 1.5 before it goes down again.
As I'm expecting a trick question I may therefore see it with more conservative eyes. Not sure if I would trade it anyway when it happened live.
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Depending on one's style it could very easily have been a pass. I agree...
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 8:43pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
Hey ghous, would you mind telling me how did you draw the "WIPG" charts leaving out the bars to the right of the PA bar? Thanks.
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I use Snag it to edit my pictures Ertorque.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 8:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
Very nice charts and great analysis. Thank you very much, Ghous!
Concerning my last post: Do you think my points are reasonable and should lead to a more conservative managment of the trade or do you think it is a no brainer? I'm sometimes concerned that over-analyzing may lead to an inappropriate fear of taking trades.
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Your points are very reasonable Hansolo, which is why I agree with your post. It really comes down to one's style of trading. I for one would have traded it conservatively that is with tight management, not to say that makes it any more or any less tradable for someone else. At the end of the day you trade what you perceive, and your perception depends heavily on what constitutes an A+ trade - which can differ significantly from trader to trader.
The purpose behind the whole exercise is not to grade setups, but comment on "where price is going if the PA bar breaks" this exercise alone has helped me more than anything else which is why I am all that excited to keep it going at weekends for all the new folks.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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Nov 7, 2010 8:55pm
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ok I missed the train.
g.
__________________
IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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43 Traders Viewing This Thread (15 are members)
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Invisible, packhorse, saugerle12, forex0908, poitier, biker883, plund, ithorror, slade1986, Invisible, ertorque, Invisible, adamu257, Invisible, Luds
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