Okidoki Jarroo, I updated the chart with the new one so the old post is good to go. Great stuff.
Jarroo, I have a question about something you mentioned the other day, maybe it was a PM. When you mentioned you like how J16 trades.
How did you mean? Possibly just eyeballing the PA and taking the trades without drawing PPZ as j16 seems to in the videos?
I am really looking forward to hearing this.
Thanks in advance.
I guess I meant to say that I like the way he manages his trades. Which is, I believe, inline with his "This is Critical" way of managing. Also, how Support and Resistance levels (PPZs) play an important role.
I do draw my levels and I'm sure he does too . .I believe he was showing how to spot where PPZs are located and how they standout in his videos.
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It certainly does indicate that it could be passing back through. But the candle just barely closed below the 1.3500 BRN and really right in the middle of the current ppz. in my opinion this one could go either way next week, or conslidate right around the current area. I'll need a little more info next week before trading this one.
I've been studying these outside bars quite a bit since reading jarroo's lessons on how they retrace quite often. You can see some slight retrace on a much more convincing BEOB back in August. If this bar looked more...
Nice chart D. You gotta like PA with the trend and that's a great looking BEOB with the down trend on the Weekly.
I don't know if you saw any of my posts on previous Highs/Lows of Outside bars and how they tend to act as a strong level. The previous bar low of the Weekly BEOB back in Aug,(purple) did offer up some Support . . . . then Price broke through it.
Now, I'm not say we are heading back there for a retrace but its an area that I'm watching.
PS: The Gpb/Jpy did offer a nice little touch trade at the 131.99 even though it was Friday. I don't think we're done with the 132.00 just yet. . .I could be totally wrong, of course.
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How can we trust them, I mean they are just lines right?
Nope that are not just lines. they are Boxes, boxes and more boxes.
Got over my cold and am at it again. Muhhhaaa Haaaaaa
EDIT: Just talking to myself here.
If we can learn to read the story to ourselves as we make trading decisions based on price action and the story, we can all be traders someday, with enough hard work and patience.
Looking good, Pb.
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That would be me, Sir.
Thanks for going through great detail explaining PPZ.
I can see the flip on the weekly NZDCHF -but i drew the line at 0.7650 whereas the more experienced guys drew it at 0.7600
After reading your explanation, would i be right to assume that you always round the PPZ level to the nearest BRN-in this case 0.7600? Cos sometimes it's hard to determine the exact level of PPZ. Doesn't the term Zone implies that it may not be exact level of S/R?
Sometimes i'm confused when you and jaroo are talking about break above /below PPZ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Here you go.
Note how all those candles can not close above the PPZ then look at the one that closed above it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Now we can see how it flipped from resistance to support.
You won't always find PA at these areas but if you do, it will be a good pa setup.
Good work on this, guys. Nice charts,Pb . .really . .very good . .
I chose the .7600 because the levels looked clearer in purple. . .surprising that it wasn't the .7500 BRN . .its a crazy pair.
Be Cool, you are right . . , the .7650 is a PPZ level I just see the .7600 as a stronger level, because of the muliple touches as Resistance it had. You can see today how the .7650 is acting as Resistance. . .
Good job guys.
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Is anyone short the EURGBP off the BEOB from 2 weeks ago?
I am in. I considered playing this like Jarroo, small stop loss, and a quick target profit and look for it to run.
So far, if I had played this like Jarroo, I would be at BE. I probably would have taken profit right above the .8600 round number at .8630 or .8625.
Instead, my stop is hidden above .8800 at .8825 and my 1st TP is .8530. At this point I will take enough off the table I make money regardless and my final TP is at .8230.
Just thought it might be interesting to discuss the...
That is why high quality setups can be played in many different ways and the Weekly BEOB on the Eur/Gbp is one of them in my book.
The strong Weekly PPZ level (.8650) that this BEOB was trading into keep me out of a hard break trade. But you can see, an entry just below this level would have worked just fine . . .straight out of James16's "This is Critical".
"A" setups like this, can be managed just as discussed throughout this Thread . . . stop loss above/below the setup. The trick is . . how are you going to manage it after it hits its target(s)?
Knowing that we have a nice BEOB on the Weekly, the Daily offered a nice opportunity . .(daily chart)
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Hi Jaroo
I've been thinking about your chart since last week, when ghous and pinbar explain boxes. Now i know that price move from one boxes to the next. And when it breaks out of boxes and give PA that we want to trade. What was once the lower/upper boundary of boxes has flipped from sup/res to res/sup.
With this in mind, i assume you always look for retest once price breaks out of consolidation. Then you look for PA in the direction away from the box.
I also notice that price can retest right away after the break (A), or it can breaks and...
I gotten a few PMs about my Nzd/Chf Weekly chart, mainly about the area in yellow . . How do you trade that?? Or What do you look for? touch trades? PA trades?
Let me show you with a series of charts. But the quick answer is that you are right Be Cool . .that PB is at a swing low . .bad . but size looks good. . .etc..
Give me a minute. . . .
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I gotten a few PMs about my Nzd/Chf Weekly chart, mainly about the area in yellow . . How do you trade that?? Or What do you look for? touch trades? PA trades?
Let me show you with a series of charts. .
(Just a side note . .this is how I view things . .)
By starting on the Weekly, we find stronger PPZ levels. When we find these levels, we want to see how they are acting . .meaning are they acting as Support or Resistance currently.
Once we find that they are acting as Support (in case on the Nzd/Chf) we wait for Price to break through it and see if it acts as Resistance or look for bullish PA at this Support level.
I will drop down to the Daily time frame (or even the 8 hour, 4 hour, or even the Hourly) with this information I gained from the weekly.
Since Price broke through and closed below the .7600, I then look for the .7600 to act as Resistance and bearish PA to pull the trigger. Touch trades at this level are possible when there are other level confluences supporting it. But nothing beats good old PA for confirmation.
When the level confluences are there and confirming PA . .Oh boy! . . . time to pack some pips.
A touch was available with th 50% ret. but no clear bearish PA.
Let's continue forward with the other weekly bars . .
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Yes, I think this weekly BEOB needed to be better managed by me or perhaps, a better looking open on the daily bearish PB may have gotten me in after the retrace.
Just taking the BEOB at the break, as I did, was not a good entry I feel, It would have been more profitable and I could have been at BE much quicker, by waiting for daily, or perhaps even H4 PA at the retrace. I mean, the entry off of the weekly BEOB is still only 70 pips ahead after so long.
EDIT: I think I am also in a similar situation with this AUD/NZD weekly BEOB.
I am sure...
Yeah . .you'll learn alot from this one. I like your decision to end the trade at that target you noted.
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Let's continue forward with the other weekly bars . .
This weekly bar breaks through and closes above the strong PPZ level, .7600. I now look for the .7600 to act as Support. I then drop down to the Daily, 8 hour, 4 Hour, etc., to look for some quality bullish PA to pull the trigger.
There is a bullish Daily PB just below . . not at . .the .7600. We still look for our PA to have all the necessary attributes : Good Size, Space, Swing High/Low, traffic, etc .
Trading that PB into the .7600 is not a good decision. James16's "This is Critical" comes into play if I choose to trade it.
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This weekly bar closes at the .7612, I view this as closing at the .7600. No strong close above or below the .7600, technically it closed above the .7600 so the .7600 could act as Support, but it could act as either Support or Resistance . .Price is indifferent to the .7600.
Nothing clearly going on here. I may look for some IBs that straddle the .7600 on the Daily and play a break out or I'll just move on to other pairs.
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Not sure if you are finished yet or, are going to explain the high of the yellow box? I can not work out why the high of the box is not perhaps a little higher at that row of bar opens and closes.
Sorry PB . .that yellow box was not to indicate consolidation as you draw them. It was drawn to show the Weekly bars for my examples.
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Ok, I get you...Thanks Jarroo....That really, really, gets me thinking about how easy it should be.
Find, the pivot balance area, and the support and resistance either side of it, and just wait for price to violate it either way, pullback and show us where it really wants to go via the language of PA.
Great stuff Jarroo. You deserve a medal for all your hard work.
You got it, Pb. It really can be this easy.
Now you see if Price is telling more of a story at these levels . . . like a wedge breakout pullback with PA, or multi-confluences forming at these levels, etc.
No metal for me . . I love this stuff .. .
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This is exactly how I use the consolidation boxes.
One thing I'd like to clarify before I begin is that I don't use boxes extensively, but they will catch my attention immediately when they are obvious.
How I understand them is just what the name suggests "Consolidation" box. That is they represent a period where price instead of riding a dominant bias in the market looks to hold up a bit and strengthen before it either reverses or continues on with the same trend. I look at these as "price breathers". The analogy of the spring is rather...
Great post g. . .
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Now, you can see if Price is telling more of a story at these levels . . . like a wedge breakout pullback with PA, or multi-confluences forming at these levels, etc.
I thought I'd show some more examples from the Nzd/Chf Weekly and see if there is more of a story that Price is telling us at these strong PPZ levels.
We can see on the Daily the multiple confluences that line up with the .7600 . . trendline, 50% ret., 150 ema . .a nice touch trade opportunity (purple) or even better, bullish PB confirmation.
There may have been other bullish PA on the lower time frames but I'll you check that out. . .
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Certainly shows us how this relates to PA and FTA.
Many thanks Jarroo.
EDIT: I totally screwed up that H4 PB yesterday and indeed the FTA of the Weekly BEOB. The H4 PB failed to make the FTA I worked out before I crashed out so, I left it open and went to bed. Big Mistake. It almost hit the FTA and bounced.
I think the weekly BEOB has already hit its FTA and we now have a turnaround starting, now I am stuck in 2 trades Short and price is going North.
I am glad these were demo trades but it still sets a...
If your asking if a setup can go beyond its 1st target due to its sheer size, quality, etc . . .I would say, "sure it can" but I going to protect myself if it doesn't. All we can expect from a quality setup is its 1st target. imo
The Aud/Nzd looks like it may have some more downward movement. We'll see how it closes at week's end.
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EDIT: Yes, I am wondering if it can make the 50 fibo.
Yes. I thought it was possible a bad move yesterday but when I woke up this morning, it was looking like it could make it.
I like my fib levels and 50% retracements (50% is not a Fib) from the most recent swing High and Low points. Also they have to line up with and strong PPZ level, or long term ema or obvious trend line, etc. The clearer the confluence the better. Add some PA to the mix and pull the trigger.
A touch trade was a available at the 61.8 but no clear PA. (the Rac-man comes to mind . .)
You can see your PB was looking good, I don't see anything wrong with taking that bearish PB with the Weekly BEOB on your back. The only thing was the swing High could have been higher (like at the 1.3000) and the traffic, it had a bit of space.
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Adi, I'm in this one too. 1.3000 area is a logical target. I think we need to be aware of the 1.3300 area as the FTA well. The bar has pretty much done as expected, retraced to the BRN and previous bar lows, and moved to FTA.
At this point we can't be surprised if price reverses or if it passes through and turns into resistance. I'll likely be adjusting my stop to just above previous bar high at 1.3750 area. The great thing about the weekly bars is you don't have to be in a rush to make the decision.
Great post D.
I like your 1.3000 target, but if Price can get through and close below the 1.3300, the 1.3150ish looks like the next test.
Looks like the 1.3300 is acting as Support but the 1.3300 may act like your chart when Price was at the 1.3500 . . .
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Hey Nasir, I see you don't have any EMAs on your chart. Don't you use them? The 150EMA maybe would have kept me out of the GBPCHF PB trade.
Hi Jarroo, the hard part is to put that what became 2nd nature to you into words that even total newbies understand. That's an exceptional talent and it makes you a very good teacher. Count me in as one of your book buyers.
lol thanks Hans . .
Keep at it brother . .you'll get there.
One thing I found that helped me was being even more picky about my trades. Meaning, if you think your picky now . . be even more picky about them. I don't think you can be too picky about a trade selection.
Jim
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Yes, this is the chart I posted when I took that PB on Tuesday.
And your post answers my question from the other day as to why the seniors want to see a greater pullback on some PA bars.
That H4 PB closed below the 1.29000 area, the 365 EMA and indeed the close of the weekly BEOB, it also had confluence with the TL, racman style. LOL
Great stuff Jarroo...Many thanks.
And the Size wasn't bad either. I just shows that if it hits its target . .protect yourself. Will Price stop you out at break even or a small loss then go in your direction for a 1000 pips . . . it sure will. But the next time it won't and you have perserved your capital to ride it.
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That's probably something I have to get back to after a while. I was very patient in the beginning and started to trade even not so good setups lately. The results are good nonetheless. But I guess after experiencing some serious drawdowns being picky becomes a logical result.
Thanks for your kind words and help, Jarroo.
lol . .yes a logical result. . . I've been there Hans.
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Hi Jaroo
What do you think about this chart?
I know you'll love it coz it's full of S&R
I have no idea where to draw the major PPZ. The PB sure looks good though -off Fib, TL & close above 150 ema
How would you look at this chart?
What do I think of this chart or this pair right now . . .A MESS. . . lol
Price is in consolidation as seen on the Weekly and Monthly.
The 1.6200 looks like a strong level, but the whole consolidation choppiness makes it hard to see any clear levels of PPZ or confluences.
Your bullish Daily PB is in the middle of this consolidation . . .best if it was at the bottom of the consolidation.
I would like to see Price break out of the consolidation in either direction (blue lines) and go from there.
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Thank you for your help on the EURGPB. I am still WAY too picky and I am WAY too conservative, from where I think I need to be. But maybe not either.
I did trade the EURGPB based on the weekly break at .8645 and hit my TP of .8530. I believe this pair might chop around .8500, so I am going to wait for more chart information to be displayed before I try to short it any further.
Mike, Jarroo, Rac, James, Ghous, I saved much of your posted charts and the text of your posts to a folder stored on a small external hard drive. I have a lot of information...
Thanks T.J. . . 16 out of 19 . . .thanks freaking great!
I wouldn't call you a " WAY too picky and I am WAY too conservative" trader . . I would call you a simply a . . .trader . .a very smart one.
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I did some test on DB-bars and BU/BE OB's and how to trade them.
My first approach to them was to just buy or sell at the break.
Now that I've done some testing on a couple of charts, I have noticed that the market 'fakes-out' many, many times when using a 20 pips entry below/above the highest/lowest point (20 pips randomly chosen).
How do you guys deal with this? Is it just something we cannot do anything about or do you play retracement etc. on the same bar but lower TF?
And another question:
I was looking through a couple of daily...
Do you mean this post Carnegie?
Do you have any chart examples?
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Okay jarro found one example just to show you, I'm sure you know what I mean.
Look at this AUDUSD. The move would have got me into the trade and faked me out!
How do you handle this? Is there any other method you guys use?
Thanks!!
That's not a bad looking Daily BEOB. The next step is to map out our target(s). We look at the previous bar High and/or Lows to select our targets on a given setup.
You can see the previous bar Highs , in green would be our target.
With a 20 pip buffer from the break of the BEOB gave little room but good for 20-25 pips. (4 Hour Chart).
You can see that the setup hit its target perfectly . .that's all we're trying to do. . .hit that first target then manage our trade from there. . .by either closing the full position or take partial profits or move to break even . .etc.
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Thanks jarroo and all of you guys who contributed, really nice to see allot of people trying to help!
I learned something new here, didn't know we took profit at previous bar high/low.
Maybe that explains why my current AUD/USD trade is negative.. Should've listened to Mike.. hate my life
Thanks guys!
That's why we demo . .you're demoing right?
What's your current Aud/Usd trade?
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Yes ofcourse jarroo, not going to touch a real market unless I have 3 months+ in profit as James said on the first page.
My current AUDUSD trade is short from 0.9976(yeah, it's RIGHT ON THE PIP AND THEN REVERSED).
From the daily, it was a BEOB + divergence so I entered on a 20 pip break and here I am now.
I don't find it funny at all, seems like I should do everything I think of IN REVERSE.
Trade long.. go short etc..
Hansolo: Good tips on your edit, I'll think about that. Thank you!!
Adilius: It would be hard for me to put...
Oh . I see. Mike's answers were great as usual.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey Carnegie
Yep that is a beob and divergence.
My issues with why it would be a pass for me personally.
Inability to close below the BRN of 1.000 parity. Would make me nervous always trading a break into such a large round number. It's a rule I never break.
Also I would want to see the high, go above the highest point, really test what is up there and get a better view.
If both of those conditions were met it would be a trade for me.
Again just some of the little things I do personally
Best
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Hey BC
I drew what I would want the high to look like and the close.
The reason is without it it is technically a beob in terms of how we define a beob, but things like where the high is or close are just as important if not more for me. If price was able to create a new high, it would have retested the orderflow above that last high, and showed the sellers are strongly coming in. Without that retest above the high it just doesn't give me as much confidence.
It's all about putting things in my favor as much as possible. Many trades will do...
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I didn't intend to speak today. Matter of fact, I wasn't gonna come to the meeting ... But I wanna say a couple of things I hope may be of use, particularly, to the new faces here. I first came into this thread 2 months ago. I read the thread convinced it was gonna be just like all the others – why woulda a bunch of REAL traders want to help me? -Then someone wrote a post, I think it was James or Mike or Diallist, or maybe it was a video, and talked about chasing trades – lowering...
My name is Jim (Jarroo) and I was an overtrader.
HI JARROO
Hey Aaron . .Welcome Home . . .
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Trade management is probably the most difficult thing about trading (at least that is what I'm founding after several months of demo trading - still demoing )
I guess the best is james16 and Jaroo's aproach. Quickly TP or protect yourself moving SL to BE. I normally do that but sometimes I use something more like mike's approach.
(this is why I think management is hard cause I haven't yet decided what is best - or maybe the best for me is a blend between the 2 strategies).
This was (still is) my strategy for EURGBP recent trades:
Nice BEOB...
Great post and great trade.
Are you at breakeven at the .8750?
If so, I would be protecting that nicely earned profit .. say at least to the .8650 . . don't know how long term you're playing this one.
Just some thoughts . . .nicely done . . Price broke through and closed below the .8500.
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You were right, James16 mini dow video was really great and it answered a lot of questions I had about how he uses floor trader pivots in those markets.
They are just another confluence factor and nothing more, while everyone else is buying and selling blindly at them. Crazy thought is it not.
The passion of the Big Guy just oozes out of that video..."It's Garbage, It's all Garbage". I think he had some of those listeners to the webinar worried for a second there. "What's Garbage" one of them asks in a very surprised manner....
ditto . .great stuff.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hey C, when I joined this thread in august, I was overwhelmed by all this information in the thread, I was really struggling to put all this information together. Sure I've read about PB's, engulfing bars, fibs, S/R, TL's before, but mostly used as a standalone trading tool, what I've learned from this thread is the full integration of all these trading tools into one universal tool that can be applied to whatever equity you want, stocks, commodities, forex etc... The integration of all these trading tools allows you to pick the trades with the...
Looking good xmz . . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
What's even more interesting is the Monthly BUOB . . . previous bar High(s).
You guys know I like these, right? . . lol ..
Quote:
Originally Posted by uBERpIP
The EUR/CAD took a major fall from its September highs in the 1.60s, dropping all the way to mid 1.20s. In June it started making a recovery of sorts, and recently reached highs of in the area of 1.44. This also happened to be a 50% retracement of the previous decline.....resistance was strong and the EUR/CAD was rejected.
She is now approaching another major S/R level @ 1.37, receiving some support at the moment from the confluence of moving averages.
Should be a decent place to set up a sniping position and wait for PA.
Is it going to receive...
I like the way you think. Some nice bullish PA would be nice at the 1.3700.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
hi guys.
hope you are all doing well.
i am back after nearly 3 weeks in hospital after a horrible car accident.
a truck crashed into my car and several others behind and in front of me at the end of a traffic jam on a german highway. about 7 people were injured.
i got several broken bones (rips, left forearm, etc.).
shows that nothing is more important in life than good health.
good trades
take care
Sorry to hear about that aserb . .wow. . hope you got some good drugs . (jk) . .
Glad to see that you're well enough to post . .that's a good sign.
Get well very soon, friend.
Jim
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Hi Jarroo. What do you think of GJ. Does this have a rac look to you?
Trendline, RN 132, PPZ, 50 retrace confluence. Touch of trendline at 132 and price likely to move south?
Also 61.8 fib near 132 from most recent swing high.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Absolutely D.
If Price doesn't find Resistance at the 132.00, look for it to find Support, especially if it doesn't give much of a bounce down, meaning a small bounce down would tell me that we're heading upward . .probably to the 135.00.
Well the 132.00 did find Resistance and had a nice bounce down of over 200 pips. (only on the Gbp/Jpy would a 200+pip be a bounce .. lol)
I am now looking to see if the 132.00 can hold as Support.
This confluenced level at the 132.00; PPZ level (although the PPZ could have been clearer), trendline and 61.8 Fib was not only a strong level to act as Resistance. These same confluences can still act as strong Support. . . we shall see.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Well the 132.00 did find Resistance and had a nice bounce down of over 200 pips. (only on the Gbp/Jpy would a 200+pip be a bounce .. lol)
I am now looking to see if the 132.00 can hold as Support.
This confluenced level at the 132.00; PPZ level (although the PPZ could have been clearer), trendline and 61.8 Fib was not only a strong level to act as Resistance. These same confluences can still act as strong Support. . . we shall see.
I think we found the answer to the question on the 132.00 to act as Support . .and it is, NO. . . lol
That's why I wait for PA at these levels. Now it could shoot up and form a PB . .if so then that's fine, I don't think so . .wow .. .look at her go.
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Yeah, we know a PB is a H&S on a lower time frame.
I am still wondering when a 2 day PB is not a 2 day PB depending on what criteria. I mean, is there any criteria?
For example, if the second bar high is outside the high of the previous bar, does that invalidate it?
The clearer they are the better. If there is a question of clarity .. I don't like them . The Aud/Usd 2 Week PB is very clear, but the size is questionable.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Sorry for the double posting guys, I saw the post after I made the other comments.
This is what I was thinking also, that this one closed below the area(parity) that you said the first BEOB couldn't. And since there are two of them in a row, wouldn't this increase the probability.
But the thing is, all of you guys are correct in that I should learn to recognize S&R areas and PPZ before I trade because it seems to me as I always short into support and buy into resistance.
So there's some learning to me. It's just that right now in the beginning.....
Mike's post was excellent on the Aud/Usd Daily BEOBs. Take some time and read all of his posts in this thread . . .that's what I do.
Here's some chart examples on the Aud/Usd of how I distinguish PPZ levels.
PPZ levels are "Price flips" meaning where areas of Support turn into areas of Resistance . .and vice versa. This turning point occurs (usually) once Price breaks the given level of Support or Resistance and closes either above or below .
Look for how Price reacts and closes at these levels on the higher time frames any it should cut down on seeing them everywhere.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I think we found the answer to the question on the 132.00 to act as Support . .and it is, NO. . . lol
That's why I wait for PA at these levels. Now it could shoot up and form a PB . .if so then that's fine, I don't think so . .wow .. .look at her go.
A followup on the Gbp/Jpy . .
I was a bit quick on claiming the 132.00 as not a Support level and it wasn't in the short term.
But we can see that Price did close above the 132.00 . .another example of why higher TFs rule. Because Price closed above the 132.00, I look for it to act as Support . .I've removed the question mark.
These confluenced levels are great way to find strong PPZ levels.
Here's an example on the Aud/Cad where these confluenced levels acting as strong PPZ level. No surprise on the .9000 BRN . .right Mike . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Found a nice simple candle aggregation indicator, not a script in MQ4 by Hanover.
You can change the colors and turn it on or off, no need to open a chart offline as before.
I think the Aggregate backwards option is best to use.
So that, the second candle becomes the aggregated candle as opposed to the first candle in the aggregation.
Looks cool, pb. I'll check it out.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Anyone looking at GBP/AUD? It seems to have found strong support at 1.6000
On the weekly there's a BUOB that's closed above the 1.6300 PPZ. It's in a bit of traffic and 2 weeks before there's another BUOB that didn't break - don't know if the first BUOB should bee seen as a confluence for this one or a negative in that it didn't break upwards.. There's divergence and as far as I can see the PPZ goes up to ~1.6750 wich I've circled to the left.
The daily shows a reverse H&S that has broken the neckline - I make FTA at around 1.6424 and STA (second...
I looks like Price found Support at the 1.5900 and Resistance at 1.6350ish level, mainly due to the past consolidation you indicated.
If Price get above the 1.6350ish level and have a stronger higher close . . say on the Daily . . it could act as strong Support again. If not, we could just head back down to the 1.6000-1.5900.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
This is a close up of GBP/AUD my feed isn't showing Friday's bar so I've drawn it in
I've put arrows at the trouble areas as well. *EDIT* - I redrew the neckline/trendline and it's in confluence with the 1.6300 BRN/PPZ. Price closed on friday at 1.6360 so watch for a retest of 1.6300 for confirmation that it's now acting as support?
That trendline can aid in the upper consolidation to act as Support, but a higher TF close above the 1.6350 would give me a better indication for it to turn into Support. . .but no doubt, the trendline would help in its story.
Just some thoughts.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Jarroo, I setup eur/cad this morning and am comparing this chart to yours.
The solid lines are the monthly flips and the broken lines the weekly.
Not too similar, do you have any advice about this chart?
Thanks in advance
edit:Just put the weekly up and explained my logic
Look good Pb.
I like to call your "retests" as either Support or Resistance, because that's where we want to see our PA . . . Support: Bullish PA and Resistance: Bearish PA.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I had dinner with a friend on Friday who works as a dealer for a CFD house. So, in between copious amounts of sake and shochu, we got to talking about trading, and the stupid things we have seen people do. On the way home (edit: the next day. late, late the next day), thanks to weather delays, I had plenty of time to think about things and got to typing.
This year has easily been my most profitable ever. The part I devote to straight PA trades has had a total return of 112% over the past 12 months. My entries and exits...
I had to catch up quick to to see what all the talk was about . . .I wasn't disappointed.
Great stuff Joel . . . . . maybe I'll just copy all your stuff and write my own book . .I'll send you a check . .lol
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
There is 1 dish that's necessary for success. It's best served cold, initially tastes totally disgusting, but once one acquires a taste for it, it (slowly but steadily) builds and compounds success into a person. It's called...
HUMBLE PIE
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I've decided to compile the posts earlier, so that when the big RN on the page gets hit, I can chug out the post summaries for everyone.
[size=2]Someone kindly PM me when we've hit 5500 pse. Thank you. Arigato....
Thank you Cyrus . .you're a big part of that list too. . .
This deserves a repost . . . man, . . I still love that line and repeat it to myself often . . "learn as much as you can, then simplify as much as you can."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
Post summaries by the seniors. If there's anyone you think should be in that I missed out, let me know please. I don't track this great thread page by page anymore so I'm abit dated in who else posts good stuff.
If I may give my 2cents (I'm gonna give it anyway. LOL), for the newer folk, learn as much as you can, then simplify as much as you can. Then, ensure that you are trading your OWN style/expression of what James/Mike/Jarroo/Kiss etc are showing you. Stay within this material until you "get it" before venturing too far out lest...
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Yes, perhaps that is a better way to look at them as they are constantly polarizing from one pole to the other.
I can not thank you enough for teaching me this in a manner that I could understand, Jarroo.
I did this for 12 hours on both Saturday & Sunday, just drawing PPZ on 25 charts. Today, I notice how the ppz are not only easier to see but the PA and confluence at these areas. Much more hard work is necessary but, I feel my eyes are starting to open a bit more and take in more.
Like these bars that are abundant at these areas.
I know the feeling Pb . .lol
You've come along way since May . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Hi,
A BEOB is shaped on Nov. 9th, but price didn't break the low until 12th.
Should we still consider it a valid signal even if our sell-stop triggered after 3 days?
Hey Dave.
Yes, its still a valid signal since the high of the BEOB was not taken out. You can see what was holding it up . . the previous bar Highs.
The BEOB had a weak close, meaning that the close of the BEOB was not below the entire previous bar (candle), we like see this with our Outside bars to show strength. And if it closed below the previous par Highs (in green) it would have been even stronger.
Since the BEOB did not break on the next bar it shows that it had little or no momentum, probably due to its weak close. So you would cancell any thoughts about trading this one.
Another view is that since the BEOB was still valid because it didn't break its High or Low, there was momentum building during this time and a trade could be placed . .preferrably a good distance below the BEOB or the green line which is now a PPZ level.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
By the way, is there ever a time when you class these as a "mini" swing high i.e. the last two bars, or do we always want to look for more bars (if so, about how many?), before we can regard it as a swing high?
Thanks for your input,
G
Its not so much the amount of bars but the amount of Space that a good swing point provides. . .not much space on that potential Daily PB.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Took my first loss in a while on the EURAUD. No biggie, I am trying some more aggressive methods with a very, very, very small percent of my account and going to keep seperate statistics on them to see where I am at.
I think on the Weekly/Daily with the obvious set-ups, I am good to go. I have really made great progress.
But I do not have the confidence to take some of the "surprise set-ups" (ones I didn't expect, but look good, and I don't know what to do so I stay out) and also work on cutting down my stop loss size on my original trades....
Hey TJ, I took this one on the retrace.
I agree with you that the BUOB looked good on the Daily but the Weekly PB looked to small for me. .its funny because the Weekly PB is made up of the Daily bars of the BUOB. Just shows how relative time frames are compared to the PA that is presented.
Anyways, I was looking to enter at the retrace level of this BUOB, at its previous bar Highs. I don't know if you saw any of my posts talking about previous bar Highs/Lows on Outside Bars . .they can be a great entry point when confirmed with PA.
I did notice that the FTA or target was pretty close which is a good thing to have when your looking for a retracement level entry. The BUOB hit its target which unfortunately was your entry . .something to take note of.
I moved down to the 4 hour at the retracement level and looked for bullish PA at this level. The IBFX feed had a PB not the best in size but good enough for me and I took it. I did the same thing with the Daily BUOB on the Eur/Cad but no PA was there.
Just thought I would give you a different look on trading good looking Outside Bars.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Jim, I actually got in this trade on the retracement as well, all before reading your post. Thank you though for this post, I greatly appreciate it.
I only planned to play the BUOB on a good break and a quick hit to 1.3970. I set my price at 1.3930, and the high I have on my chart is 1.3926, so slippage got me into the trade.
I am now in on the retracement though, with my original TP of 1.3970 (though at 1.3925 I will bring my stop loss up to BE). My stop los is at 1.3670 (hide behind the 1.3700 level).
Thank you for your help!
T.J.
That's great TJ. I didn't what my post to come off the wrong way. I believe I've read that you look for retracement as well.
I mostly look for PA at these levels to take a trade. I will look for a touch trade if there is multiple confluences supporting the level or if the story is really compelling. . .but mainly its PA all the way.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanx for the compliment Pinbar, you're doing very fine also, but I think all the credits goes to the senior members of this thread, Jarroo, Mike ..... I really admire their unselfish efforts in trying to help newbies to get them on the right track. Especially in this hard business like Forex where everything evolves around making money at the cost of somebody else. It's a relief to see that are also good people in this business who are prepared to spend their time and efforts in educating newbies like me, not once but day in and day out, lots lots...
Thanks xmz. A lot of good people on this thread and you are one of them.
I enjoy your charts and analysis.
Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
But if I can suggest to you that you go to a high time frames to get your Support and Resistance information before you go to a lower time frame, like the Hourly.
. .. here's an example (Charts)
I'm not suggesting that using the same time frame won't work . .it will. I have found that the higher time frame levels are much stronger . .more data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by geniusztc
as you said ,i am wrong , lost 13 pips.
It did give up some positive pips before it stopped you out, correct?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Probably trashed it as I have been practicing the Jarroo method all day.
Not sure which one you mean.
It was a Daily or 4 hour showing strong confluence at the 83.00. . . Strong PPZ level at the 50% retracement level (50% ret. is not a Fib), (365 on the 4 Hour).
This is a strong level because of this confluence. Price should have reacted stronger as Resistance . .it did not.
What does this tell you about the uptrend?
edit: yes, that's it.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
It seems to suggest it means business and could possibly take us up to the 85.
Usually, Yes. Strong confluenced levels can tell us a lot about the strength of a trend and the momentum of Price by how Price breaks through them. . .sometimes it like a hot knife through warm butter.
Also, we can now look to the 83.00 to act as Support from its previous Resistance.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
How often would you say that when you enter on a retrace your FTA is the Breakout point of the outside bar?
Good question spookie.
It usually depends on the quality of the setup. With that given, I would say Yes, Price tends to that after the next target after the first target has been hit. This usually involves a retracement as a normal vicissitude of the market. But again, if the retracement already occurred prior to the break of the setup, I would like Price to have a slight stall at the first target and then to the moon.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I've received some posts/questions about my oil trade yesterday, I just wanted to explain the trade in somewhat more detail for those guys. The trade was a simple S/R flipplay of the 8550, previous support, price then broke with quite some momentum, price revisited 8550 and found resistance as seen via the daily PB in question. Entry on a pullback, as I like to find a more optimal entrypoint to minimize potential drawndown/risk. Price gave me a sell trigger on the 30m-TF via a "shooting star", not an ideal PB because its body didn't fall within...
That's a tough trade, xmz.
Where were your fibs drawn from ?
The 85.00 looked good for a retracement . . but never got there.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.