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  #78006  
Old Oct 20, 2010 8:29pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
some time ago a dutch bank organized a stocktrading competition on a demo-account, quess who won that competition, yes wright a HOUSEWIFE, not some professional trader but a housewife.
I presume professional traders would be at work, like everyone else.

Except... housewives.
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  #78020  
Old Oct 20, 2010 11:02pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I think EJ may be giving us hints.
This is one of the reasons I find BEOB/BUOB trades dicey. They can be great trades, but they are often directionless bars that dont tell us enough. I want a bar with a wide range that represents the transfer of power from one side to the other.

Unless they have some kind of kickass closing momentum they often just lead to people getting trapped buying at the high or selling at the low of a trading range.

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  #78053  
Old Oct 21, 2010 2:51am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
housewives work too, u know

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0701057/quotes

Marge: [reading] "Parent's occupation... Please note that 'homemaker' is not allowed, as it is not real work, that's why you don't get paid."
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  #78324  
Old Oct 24, 2010 9:58pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey View Post
hope ghoust can share some step by step write up guidance on how to trade these dangerous IPBs.... a video would be great.
Why would you want to purposely trade something 'dangerous'?

A wise man once told me that I was an idiot. Rather than trying to expand my repertoire into new and more difficult (or often borderline) strategies, I should just concentrate on the stuff that I do well - just do it on a bigger scale.

He was talking about something entirely unreleated to trading, but I think it translates well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
I have worked in the financial sector here and let me tell you there is s high demand for CFA's also a lot of people get fail in CFA level-2 but i am sure you can do it.
CFA-II was definitely difficult, but not impossible. I think the historical failure rate is around 51% (L1 is 47%, so you have some selection bias in there).

I think it is the written answers that trip people up - their math is fine, but the comprehension not so much.
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  #78365  
Old Oct 25, 2010 6:29am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
so to limit risk in this case, i try to crawl first before i attempt to hop/run... that is, trade PBs first before IPBs. same reason why ghous has a cautionary signature about IPBs.
Exactly. Why take more difficult, harder to understand and harder to execute setups when there is a ton of low hanging fruit out there.

If Mike and JimJarroo can limit themselves to good bars in good locations, the rest of us trying to use MIT triggered option spreads to to touch trade a fib retracement on a trendline intersection with a PPZ because we see confluence with the Nikkei...well, we look kinda like a 14yo kid at McDonalds trying to cook like Keller.

(just quietly, thats how professionals think too - risk, then reward. Find something that works, hammer it into the ground.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
i think u got the analogy similar only to a certain degree.
Damn...I must have used up all my analogy power for the quarter

(also, happy belated birthday PB - I think I speak for everyone when I say that you are an awesome addition to the crew of regs here!)
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  #78817  
Old Oct 29, 2010 3:23am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
consider your equations:
woman = time x Money
woman = Problems

since u love women
women = woman x 10000 (infinity)
& mattfx = (loves) women
therefore, mattfx = (time x money) (problems) (infinity)

correct?
Close

Women = time x money
and, as we all know, time = money
:. Women = money x money
= money^2

Another universal constant is that money is the root of all evil.
:. Women = (sqrt(evil))^2
:. women = evil

QED.
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  #78820  
Old Oct 29, 2010 3:30am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
that's not what the bible says, but i will concur
You are probably the first person I've met who actually knows that... I'm impressed
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  #79047  
Old Nov 1, 2010 10:52pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
The close of the PB is outside the eye (High) of the previous bar so, it is not a valid PB if we look at it technically.
You can use the eye of the candle to left but that is 4 bars back, not sure how many bars back is allowed for a proxy eye.

Hope this helps.
I'm possibly in the minority here, but for me at least... close enough is good enough.

That pin and a copy of it with a close a couple of pips lower are telling the same story, and as long as you are waiting for the break (which you should be, kids) you wont run into any nasty 'buying at the bottom of a trading range like a complete clownshoe' issues.

Rules are all well and good as a framework to get you started and keep people out of trouble, but at some point you have to try and understand why you are doing what you are doing... otherwise, you are just another guy clicking buttons on the internet and hoping it works out for the best.

It's all about being able to adapt to changing circumstances, rather than being a human EA. You are dealing with a fluid market, with thousands of transactions a second and where the difference between a couple of pips could be a single order. That single order doesnt automatically change the flow of the market, and so it doesnt necassarily make a setup more or less valid (although it can, in specific circumstances)... in which case, is the rule really 'protecting' you from anything, or is it just an arbitary filter that makes you miss some good trades?

Or, much more eloquenty
All fixed set patterns are incapable of adaptability or pliability. The truth is outside of all fixed patterns.

Also: boards dont fight back. and something about emotional content.
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  #79052  
Old Nov 1, 2010 11:24pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
I trade the 1 Hour to 5 Min in the first year. Moved up to 4Hour in the second year and has recently traded the daily. Trade trendline bounce with fib and candlestick. Always got whipsawed when trend was changing.
You wouldnt be the first to lose a bunch of money on the magical powers of Fibbonacci numbers. Dont worry, Jim and Mike will set you straight

*edit* wow this thread moves fast. disappear for a week or two and you come back to triple digit pages to read.


I read Libre Abaci in school, and it is kind of sad that for all the contributions he made to mathematics in the western world (which would look very different otherwise - hint: you wouldnt know how to add or subtract, and we would be on page MMMMMCCLXXI!), he is remembered because of some number sequence he didnt even make up and only used in a single example in a single book. Oh, and the whole alchemy thing. Ouch. But Newton fell for that too, so he gets a pass on it.
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Last edited by joelcf, Nov 2, 2010 12:10am
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  #79055  
Old Nov 1, 2010 11:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
This is a good example of why we wait for the break of a PA bar.
Or why we dont trade kangabucks when the RBA releases an interest rate decision
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  #79071  
Old Nov 2, 2010 2:25am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Default ...when acting as a particle

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I read a long time ago that J16 people don't pay much attention to news as it is figured into the PA.

Joel seems to suggest otherwise.
It's a bit of both. And I've been slack for a while, so here is a wall of text.

When people say stuff like 'TA shows all the news', they are oversimplifying it a bit (usually because either they are busy or they are just repeating something they read which was dumbed down to begin with by certain authors who should stick to crayons, but I digress).

A more accurate way of putting it is that price (and therefore PA) shows the market's discounted value of all known information. Those bits in italics are the important parts.

First bit, the market doesnt tell you the actual price of, say, a bar of gold. A true price doesnt really exist. It's the average of the price that all the participants put on that bar of gold. Some of the market participants might think gold is massively overpriced and is just a dumb shiny rock, worth about $4 an oz. sellsellsell. The gold bugs might value that bar at $25,000/oz because they think that Socialist Kenyan Dictator Obama of the Federal Nazi Reserve is going to destroy the world with weapons of mass fiat currency*. buybuybuy. Both parties, along with the rest of the market, meet somewhere in the middle and we get a price.

The second part is that, obviously, price can only incorporate known news. Anything unexpected will quickly be assimilated into price as people buy/sell based on this new information.

So you get two effects there. The first one is that before the interest rate announcement, 'price' reflects the views of everyone on what the rate 'should' be... and the rate is unknown, at this point. Price isnt 'incorrect', it just shows what people think**.But after the announcement, the rate becomes known, and the market quickly adjusts.

That's why news can spike price. Not because it is good or bad news, per se, but because it is different to what people expected. If everyone thinks the next NFP is going to be terrible, and the number comes out and is terrible, the market will barely flinch. But should it come out merely bad, it will be a positive shock. Which is why we see things that appear to be stupid happening, like a share price going up on seemingly bad news.

Which, to finally get to the damn point, is why people might want to be aware of important news releases. That way, you can avoid it, manage it (ie, set your stops or hedge) or choose to ignore it. But you are an informed market participant, and I'll give you a gold star.

This is also why you can choose to ignore 'news', as defined as 'the news channel', which - generally speaking - is only reporting on things that people already know. All the economic analysis, all the opining of the hosts, all the reports of what happened in what company and what happened in politics and how much Warren Buffett values x company at and what people think about Blake Lively (hot) and Katy Perry (not) and so on... well, it's all stuff that's already known and discounted. You can see all that stuff on your chart.

I think that's where people get a bit mixed up. They conflate Jim Cramer or Fox News with NFP releases because both are 'news'. In reality, only NFP is news. The others are dissemination or analysis of known information (or pure trash). I'll leave which is which up to the reader

Ignoring news release dates is fine too, if you are so inclined. Nothing wrong with that. But dont be suprised when you get stopped out by a news spike arising from a known event that was one button click away and come crying to me. I'm not going to give you your twelve bucks back.


*(not sure exactly how they purchase said gold, given that currency = theft and so on, but there I go on another tangent).

** Following this concept, you can therefore use futures pricing to calculate the what the market thinks is the probability of a rate change ahead of the announcement.
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Last edited by joelcf, Nov 2, 2010 4:12am
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  #79072  
Old Nov 2, 2010 2:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I got the second round.
A Texan, a New Yorker and an Aussie walk into a bar...
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