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  #76741  
Old Oct 7, 2010 8:56am
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Originally Posted by onlydragon View Post
hey James

what do u think about euro, pound, swiss....?? where is your entry point?? can you post one live trade??? i see you use daily and weekly timeframe so it takes hours before the market move to your stop point.... don't you mind spend 10 second to post your one live call??? Let prove to everyone you are not only a good teacher but also a good trader

Cheer
Maybe it's just me but I adore the thought of only dragon struggling for attention if we could just leave him saying what he wants with no response (until he swings the axe on his own toes and get's kicked out of FF for good)

poking us might probably be the only thing this 12 year old's looking for...

g.
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  #76785  
Old Oct 7, 2010 12:32pm
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Originally Posted by chips View Post
I did one month at J16, and it change my demo trading skills. I develop and new level of confidence and reading charts, using FIBS and PA, S/R. all the tools you need to trade. You will loose some but the reward is greater.
I have blown several demo account, but my last one after J16 doubled in less that 1 month( I started with $10000). I do it aggressively just to prove the Strategies. My wife dont get it yet, she thinks is play.

like someone said. The more you prove you are winning the more you believe in yourself and the better you...
Day made.

Thank you sir, and welcome aboard!

g.
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  #76858  
Old Oct 7, 2010 10:36pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
CHF/JPY Daily DBHLC looks interesting but some serious obstacles to overcome.

I would like to see some large closing below the PPZ.

EDIT:

Looks like H4 is going to for the retest of the PPZ.
It didn't close below your ppz PB but should be interesting to see where a hard break takes us? 84.3? maybe...

The big man hardly ever notices the news but this time he's upon it like a tonne of bricks, lol...when he says watch out...

lol.

g.
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  #76870  
Old Oct 7, 2010 11:01pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
i will share something with all of you that mike does not even know. there are 4 or 5 "onlydragons" here that are under different usernames that are now everyday contributors that at one time came after me in some form like dragon.

if one of them wants to step up and admit that i would be tickled pink but they dont have to.

there are two guys that post here everyday that your jaw would drop if they told you who they "used" to be.

you would have to be an old timer though.

bottom line is this.

i care about dragon. he pisses me off for...
I can't say for anyone else but I have been mocking at James when I first came here too (literally mocking)...never in a post though (probably I had a gut feeling I was more responsible for the lack of success than anyone else). It happened when I entered into a loosing streak after some "beginner's luck" and I threw everything out at a piece of paper that I still have.

Point is you could always criticize constructively. I don't know what it would take to control myself if someone threw comments at me like only dragon did (If I were Jim) only for the hard work that I have put in to help newbies for 5 FrIgGiNg YEARS!!!!!! I know Jim has that "thing", that controlling device in him though and so do many other folks here, which makes this place so great!

g.
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  #76872  
Old Oct 7, 2010 11:03pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
def not me LOL although that would be extra kicker. I have no idea either. I still believe Jim is an ex yankees fan at heart and will come clean to me about that one day
Lol. you guys and your yankees and rangers.
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  #76985  
Old Oct 9, 2010 3:38am
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Originally Posted by melvin87 View Post
Hey guys,

Not too sure why the pin below didnt work. Price broke 0.95 + ppz. Retraced to form a bearish pin which didnt really work out. Any idea why?

Also, am i right to say that when looking for PA, it is better to look for them at swing highs/lows? Looking at the chart below. perhaps the only areas to look for PA would be bearish signals off the 0.9650 initially followed by bearish signals off the 0.950. Bullish PA off the PPZs marked in the chart would only mean that we are trading into a consolidation and also against the trend.
hey Melvin,

When we talk about trading at swing highs and swing lows, we basically are talking about trading against the trend. Thing is when you get those big outstanding bars (like the one Mr. Smith mentioned) at swing points you get a big advantage that of space and clear cut trouble areas, and that makes trading - for newbies specially, so much more easier.

Conversely, taking trend continuation setups at swing points can be tricky because you are basically heading "into the unknown". Often you won't have bar highs/low to the immediate left and that's where long term PPZs come into play big time. (I'll use your example to elaborate on this)

Either ways what you need is a strong bar that you can bank on. The bar you highlighted was an IB shaped like a PB as Smith mentioned, Indicative of bearish existence for sure, but then was it strong enough to blow through the last low AND THE 9400 PPZ?

At the first glimpse the setup looks clean (in terms of space) except that FTA of the previous bar low. Notice what price did. It bounced just above (again the markets aren't perfect enough to operate "to the pip" all the time) the 9400. Why did it do that? Throw in a horizontal line there and scroll back...don't read, do it before you read on!

Bingo!!

Tonnes of support and resistance at the level, hence a very important BRN. Combine that with a poor shaped (small despite being with the trend) PA setup and you have ample reasons to stay away from an already "tricky" trading method - i.e trading into swing points.

g.
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  #77036  
Old Oct 10, 2010 12:53am
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Originally Posted by melvin87 View Post
Hey Ghous and Mr Smith,

Thanks for the clarification. In this case, what would be your conditions for trading continuation bars? I'm quite confused because in the many instances I back-tested with continuation bars that broke through important ppzs, there would (more often than not) be some box of consolidation on the left that i'm trading into when I dont do them at swing points. So the 'bad location' (or so i think hahah) makes it difficult to decide whether to enter or not and also set a proper FTA.
hey Melvin,

For me, it's just all the regular requirements for a trade setup. I need to have a strong bar off an important area and which isn't heading into immediate traffic. Again traffic here doesn't only imply bar highs and lows to the immediate left but also long term price pivot zones that may come in the way and that do play a more important role in such trades than do short term price flips.

What makes trading trend continuation setups at swing points tricky is that you end up jumping in on a running trend (unless price has consolidated at the swing point before it broke out and presented a PA setup) and because price doesn't move in a straight line you are more vulnerable to pull backs,halts and whipsaws

On the other hand you're banking on fresh orders when you're going for trend reversal bar setups at swing points and when you trade at 50/61.8 fib ret of a trend which "seems to have revived"

Not to say a BUOB at a swing high is in any way more or less reliable than a BUOB at a swing low - just that at a swing high it requires you to have a very solid understanding of trouble areas (that are not as obviously lying in front of you as they are with trend reversal setups) and long term price pivot zones and big round numbers, because as it is you got to watch out for that pull back that could be round the corner.

g.
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  #77044  
Old Oct 10, 2010 2:43am
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Originally Posted by melvin87 View Post
Ahh okok. Thanks for the very detailed reply. Lots of good points in there.

Another question though. I tend to treat every RN and/or BRN as a PPZ because at some point of time in the past, several bars would have reacted off that area. That means even if there is a good setup, my FTA would usually very pretty close by. And with a good pin that spans over a 100 pips, it makes it difficult for me to decide whether to enter the trade or not because of the supposedly unfavourable R:R ratio. Thats what made me think that perhaps trading at extreme...
The best thing to do IMO is to eye ball the areas that look like S/R flips (you see bar highs and lows lying in roughly the same horizontal area) and try to locate a RN at or around that level.

And in case you do end up with only a round number and no recent indications of support and resistance at that level at best you could watch how price behaves around that level specially if it's close to your entry, perhaps even reduce your stop when price hits the RN Though you will have to take some points off the "space" department for the overall setup and this spatial concern will be a factor to consider - not necessarily a trade breaker, but a considerable factor for sure.

g.
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  #77062  
Old Oct 10, 2010 10:27am
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
My first pick for next week. A-C weekly, nice bearish IPB at a swing high and @ BRN 10000.
yup!

I got my eyes on that one myself.
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  #77064  
Old Oct 10, 2010 10:35am
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Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
hey xmzhang,
for a bearish ipb, u actually want the ipb bar to be bearish .....
check the daily tf, it looks much better, bearish ipb off 1.000 BRN and also a double top
entry = close of ipb
stop loss = above bearish ipb
FTA = low of ipb
cheers
Just like the color of the bar is not extremely important with pin bars likewise it isn't all that important for IPBs either. Don't get me wrong, a bearish IPB with a close below it's open is always preferred but a bullish close will still do given that the IPB (bearish) doesn't close very near or at it's high.

Clearly, there are hints of rejection off that prior week's high - needless to say that is of 0 surprise due to the VBRN.

g.
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  #77065  
Old Oct 10, 2010 10:38am
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will be watching this as well.

g.
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  #77075  
Old Oct 10, 2010 1:44pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
Where is Ace why he isn?t posting his wonderfull charts anymore?
I'd second that.

He runs an amazingly simple system based on 2 widely used sources of confluence (PPZs and trend lines).

I was looking at this the other day, and it reminded me of Ace's charts. I hope he'll drop by soon.

g.
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  #77166  
Old Oct 11, 2010 11:05pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The Weekly IPB is working out nicely . .Ghous.

I know the High of the IPB is near, not at . . the 1.3500. . .picky, picky, picky.

Looks like if we can get passed that previous bar High (yellow) its got a good chance to hit its target.

Higher time frames rule.

Jim

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  #77167  
Old Oct 11, 2010 11:50pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
These 2 doing a pretty ok job so far as well.

g.
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  #77172  
Old Oct 12, 2010 12:26am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
I understand AUDCAD formed a IPB both on daily as well as on weekly charts..

But not sure what is the Price action on GA to play long here ? Can you please shed some light on this ?
It is a bullish IPB CP, albeit a little tilted towards an indecision bar although the upper wick exceeds the shorter wick enough to still keep it in the IPB category in my book.

g.
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  #77219  
Old Oct 12, 2010 6:47am
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Anyone likes this on BRN?
Looks good for a long here, yes?
WOW...just...wow!

How many of you caught this?

Price did penetrate the low of the IPB but remained within 3 pips beyond the BRN. A logical stop should see through the pull back.

Decent stuff.

g.
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  #77333  
Old Oct 13, 2010 9:17am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Hello Traders!

Look maybe someone could give me an advice? At current time I follow all SP500 stocks for weekly setups, also Dow30. I was able to set my platform in the way I could now go through both indexes within 2 hours or so. So I was thinking that I may as well widen my list to look for even more stocks over weekend - so to choose the best possible setup (always just 1). So...

Could anyone suggest which to add? Nasdaq 100, Russel 1000 or 2000 (and why), Maybe that AMEX Index components? I mean there are SO MANY stocks, of course SP and...
Joel you there?
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  #77358  
Old Oct 13, 2010 1:37pm
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Originally Posted by fascist View Post
would you take this BOVB on GBPUSD? a countinuation of a bounce from 150 MA.
I for one would never take that.

We've been chopping like hell on the pair (trend is up but price is far from moving smoothly) and that brings into the equation lot's of potent short term S/R flips created by the heaps of bar highs and lows coming from the directionless motion of price.

At best it's definitely not a take and forget trade setup IMHO

g.
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  #77390  
Old Oct 13, 2010 9:33pm
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Originally Posted by billm View Post
Is the 150 ema applied to the 4Hr chart only and factored x4 when looking at a 1Hr chart ?
Not sure but my guess is every time frame has it's own calculations for the MAs, because obviously the 150 bar closes that the 1H has will be different to the price values of these bar closes on the 4H,

g.
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  #77464  
Old Oct 14, 2010 1:42pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Well that BUOB was one big disapointment to me. Why? good size + div.
Yes against main trend but really looked like the trend exhausted (due to size and div)...

So what was my problem with this trade? Should I never trade agianst main trend (even with div + good size)??? Or should I just ignore one failed setup (because even good fail too) and keep on doing what I do?

Were you aware of the fact that it was headed straight into the 14 BRN?

g.
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  #77469  
Old Oct 14, 2010 1:57pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Yes, so I set my order 6 cents above... and my target was next BRN - 15.
You have to understand Adilius, the market's aren't perfect. Setting an order a few pips above an immediate PPZ is better than taking a trade on the break and sitting on the edge of your chair hoping to see the close trouble area break BUT it's not something that gives you sure short edge in trading these less then "bread and butter" trades. Trial and error is really the only way you will, over time understand what kind of trade management suits you best.

There would be traders out there who would have passed this setup just because of spatial concerns, agreed?

There would be traders who would have taken the BUOB at the break and maybe tightened the stop a bit when price pushed through 14.00 and ended up with a < full bar loss, agreed?

There would be traders who would have taken the setup a few pips above the 14.00 in hopes of seeing the level hold as support (including you), agreed?

So who's right and who's wrong? Quite honestly, neither, precisely because the result on a single trade is irrelevant, what matters is your overall experience as it develops with trading setups like these and a large sample space that can help you conclude decisive results.

g.
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  #77471  
Old Oct 14, 2010 2:04pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Yes, so I set my order 6 cents above... and my target was next BRN - 15.

EDIT: Also the previous two BEOB's with the main downtrend were both headed to BRN. And as I noticed on weekly charts many times each candle covers at least 1$, so almost always there would be BRN's on the way. Yet those bearish two worked just perfectly...
Once again those 2 setups working out compared to the recent one that didn't is something you can't base a rational decision on (As to whether the idea of entering after a literal break of an immediate BRN was a good one)

If you really do intend to master playing these setups Ad, you'll need to put in the time it requires to find your fit, and there are no shortcuts - Warren Buffet says: "You can't make 9 women pregnant and except a baby in 1 month - some things just take time"



g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #77475  
Old Oct 14, 2010 2:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Thank you Ghous. Yes in theory I understand this. But at the same time I am still in search for what kind of trader should I be?...
There is direct correlation between risk and reward. Trading PA at swing highs and swing lows can be very rewarding because you're essentially getting in very early into a new wave of orders, but at the same time you can't rule out the fact that you're considering the current order flow in the market "as weak and unlikely to sustain itself". To be doing that is brave and this thread teaches you just what is it that you need to back that bravery up with in order to keep this whole thing still a business.

We know when trading at swing points and looking for reversals we need big bars that clearly indicate a shift in momentum, we also know that bar shape alone isn't all that matters. Our bars need to rightly located with enough supporting confluences. And we also need to watch out for trouble areas ford a possible attempt by the former dominant party to take control of the proceedings once again. Not to say these aspects can be ignored when trading with the trend, but at swing points they are more important than when trading with the trend.

Once again I have no right to flat out call that BUOB setup "invalid" despite the fact that it was struggling in the "space department" because as you said and understood, there is no one size fits all theme going here at the thread, nor is there a "system" being taught here. J16 is a method, developing a system around it is well up to the individual depending on one's own preferences of risk appetite, mental setup bla bla

***---***

You asked in that initial post why that BUOB failed. The J16 method has an answer, but thing is, one trader will kick himself/herself for taking a less than A+ setup, while some other trader in some other corner of the world, will smile at the loss and think about moving on to the next one.



g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #77564  
Old Oct 15, 2010 11:51pm
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g.
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  #77569  
Old Oct 16, 2010 12:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
This is EG. I trashed the weekly screen shot by mistake, but I did the same on the weekly as the Monthly.

We get breaks, retests, before break of the next range or reversal to the upper range. This is going on, on all pairs all the time.
On the right track, is Mr. Pin bar!



g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #77572  
Old Oct 16, 2010 1:15am
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Originally Posted by winsfx View Post
Sir ghous,

Is that an IPB?

If it is, I want to ask : where is the place to open the position, is in the opening candle on Monday or below the blue line ?

Regrads

wins
Hi there,

Yes it's an IPB. I like to trade them at the close of the bar itself, in case of weekly bars it will be at the open of the Monday candle given that we don't have a big gap in wither directions.

g.
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  #77575  
Old Oct 16, 2010 3:52am
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Originally Posted by winsfx View Post
Oh, I see.

so the blue line is the FTA and as the first profit area, but I found another FTA upper the blue line in 1.5800.

Is this 1.5800 area not perform as the FTA first than the blue line?

wins
That blue line actually does roughly line up with the 1.58 so yeah the 1.58 is the FTA and profit (full or partial) taking area.

g.
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IPBs are advanced PA setups and my sincere request to all newbies is to stay away from them until you know the basics like the back of your hand - TRADE SAFELY AND WISELY!
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  #77597  
Old Oct 17, 2010 1:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emmy01 View Post
Hi all I have been on this forum reading the great stuff in here jim really change
my style of trading

[/IMG]Attachment 562308

after some hours

Attachment 562309


finally reach my target
Attachment 562311

Thanks to jim
Simple isn't it?

g.
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