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  #75846  
Old Sep 28, 2010 10:31am
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Originally Posted by 666Doom View Post
Hi guys,

Now i know guys,some may mave discussed this pair.
But i have a question,the beob on 4h chart on this pair worked but found support right there,now it is going up to test 0.8500 will that count as pullback with fresh sell order place there.
See the beob is second last bar


Regards
Taz
We were watching this one and here is what I was watching Taz

1hr breakout pattern, big beob(think the preemptive breakout we spoke about). Now the next bar never triggered my order so I canceled it. I was asked if I would hold with the 4hr BEOB, but it was way to small for me.
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  #75848  
Old Sep 28, 2010 10:34am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I'm 48.

Mike is like 26 but he has an old soul . . I mean that in a good way, Mike. An old soul is good to have in the trading business.
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  #75849  
Old Sep 28, 2010 10:38am
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Originally Posted by roundrock View Post
2 queries

1. now a days i am not seeing many daily pins or BUOB/BEOB. its more than a month i saw a good daily pin, BUOB/BEOB. I track around 40 pairs. is this normal ? anybody else feels same ? on H4 i found some but didnt take as i dont like to trade on H4

2. regarding EURGBP. mathematically its same as EURUSD, GUBUSD. long EU and short GU is same as long EG. So EG is moved by EU and GU ? or EG is moved by itself, i mean the GBP and EUR determine the EURGBP ?
It's normal my friend, depends on ones criteria so it isn't going to be everyone is finding no trades or finding trades. It will vary. But every method has its time when you are on the sidelines. Wait for the ones that make sense to your method and not get that itchy finger

Best
Mike
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  #75851  
Old Sep 28, 2010 10:41am
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Originally Posted by winsfx View Post
hi all, I just join this forum and this is my first post, please welcome me.

I found this thread very interesting and totally different from the system that I used previously.
I also have read an explanation of this system and little understood.

I would like to ask whether this G/U chart below can be stated as a valid bearish pin bar when it is closed near the open? I doubt because previous price trend is still bullish and previous candle is also a pin bar.
Hey Wins

Welcome to the thread

For it to be a valid pinbar the open and close need to be within the prior bar. So in the case you had screenshotted that would not be a valid pin.

Ask more questions as you work through the thread

Mike
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  #75870  
Old Sep 28, 2010 1:36pm
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
So that's how Mike does it!!! A time machine
LOL I wish bud
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  #75881  
Old Sep 28, 2010 5:48pm
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Originally Posted by Arnaldo View Post
if you consider the blue line as a old time s/r is not very bad location but definitely the size is not ok.....
1.62 is a very large pivot that it is trading into. So overall a crowded/traffic pinbar in my eyes, with not much more in the way of confluence. Does that make it untradeable? Not necessarily depends on the trader. But where is price likely to have trouble? 1.62 would be a good starting point for sure

Best
Mike
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  #75893  
Old Sep 28, 2010 7:32pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Mike, so if the BEOB was bigger it would have been one for you to take.

Would you have a bullish bias since this is a bullish wedge or pennant formation? Or a bigger BEOB would throw that bullish pennant out the window?
Hey Jim

My bias is long since the trend is up, but since we are straddling the BRN, I was open to both situations. The One hr beob was great size great spot, but next bar never triggered it. The 4hr beob was just way to small. Would have needed to be much bigger(as now your fighting that uptrend with such a small bar. Now the daily beob is nice continuation so let's see if we can work up higher away from the 8500 pivot zone BRN
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  #75896  
Old Sep 28, 2010 7:53pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
A bigger 4 Hour BBEOB would tell a different story for sure . . Thanks Mike


I think you mean "BUOB" on the Daily as continuation . . fly me to the moon.

doh yep
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  #75900  
Old Sep 28, 2010 9:20pm
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Originally Posted by winsfx View Post
thank's mate

I see it, at the last the candle not perform as a pin bar.

Another question, in DAILY E/U, it had already made a BUOB. is this a valid BUOB?
but I don't immediately open a position, I wait a retrace to 1.5000 and open a BUY LIMIT at that area.

wins
Hey Wins

Yes this is a valid buob, but the location we want to see them when we are new to this is at a swing low. This is a swing high. Yes they can be played as continuation but they are just trickier to understand and manage so we try to teach new traders them at swing low points first and then after time you will find them playable in many different forms and spots.

Best
Mike
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  #75915  
Old Sep 29, 2010 3:13am
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an area of interest for sure
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  #75921  
Old Sep 29, 2010 3:34am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
im salivating for that one mike
all time high dropped like a rock. I'd say this is an area worth watching
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  #75922  
Old Sep 29, 2010 3:35am
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
I laugh at the USD weak dollar policy they have going...... we'll have to see how out of hand this will get, or perhaps it will top out? I don't even know... but in the meantime.... wow. Asia is driving pretty much any strong economy that exists currently.
Wish I could talk with you about this stuff Dan, but I am so clueless on all the policies. But a good area is a good area and I know we both can talk about that
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  #75925  
Old Sep 29, 2010 3:41am
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post

only time will tell.... maybe there is no limit to how high real estate can get in Australia (not serious)
lol just like in the US right
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  #75928  
Old Sep 29, 2010 3:47am
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Originally Posted by dmuk View Post
Apologies again but I have confused myself.

This thread seems to have people trading varying styles. Some are trading smaller timeframes, others looking for breakout trades off big round numbers (BRNs). Others are waiting for retracement at points of "interest". Others buying immediately on the breakout.

There is also some differences in what a BRN is? Is it 1.3300 (2dp) or 1.3310 (3dp) or 1.3305 (4dp)? How many decimal palces (dp) do we use?

How do we clearly make a judgement at key support and resistance lines? Sometimes we are going long...
Hey Dmuk

You are correct there are varying styles but we are all playing of the same concepts. The most important are Support and resistance. Understanding of how price reacts at these areas. Then you can combine that with other tools like price bar analysis round numbers, etc.

In terms of round numbers

Big round numbers = every 500 pips ie: 1.3000, 1.3500, or 90.00, 95.00 etc
Large round numbers refer to every 100 pips 1.3100 1.3200 , or 91.00 92.00

again the terminology is just a matter of who is using it but for simplicity sake lets use the above.

Areas of interest mean we can use that information to give us a story. For the aud/usd, the last time price reached towards the parity level it dropped like a rock.

For me I am going to wait for price bars here, and into the parity level. Others may very well place a sell right at .9850 a stop above 1.0 and let it rip. In general 1.00 area and that former high becomes something I will watch close for further information. For now it is a waiting game, but a great spot to watch b/c history tells us that point is very important.

My trading revolves around key locations. BRNs, utilizing Large round numbers s/r in trade mgmt, breakout patterns. I look for these important locations, then trade to get more information to get into a high probability setup

Hope that helps
Mike

PS there are no silly questions and that is what deters some from diving into price action and support and resistance, b/c it is not as clean cut as do ABCD and collect your profits, but it is taking concepts building upon them and lots of time and practice so ask away
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  #75929  
Old Sep 29, 2010 3:48am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Joel Alert.
LOLOL, as the batman "J" flashes into the air
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  #75934  
Old Sep 29, 2010 4:06am
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Originally Posted by dmuk View Post
Hey Mike,

Thanks for the supportive answers.



Any pair travelling around 1.0000 is going to be an interesting test. Maybe something boring will happen and the roll costs will burn any potential profits (due to EUR v AUD interest rate gap)? I will be watching.





I sort of understand the approach to using support/resistance lines and large numbers to pick "locations".

I gather it is then scrutiny of the price action or candles that form around these points? Bullish = Go Long, Bearish = Go Short?

I am still searching for some consistency...

The story is, what support and resistance looks like, do we have consolidation, boxing of price, is it wide open, are there patterns forming beyond the bars. Is there divergence, are we at a retracement of a larger move, a PPZ, the list goes on and on. Be sure to click James16 name and review all his posts till your eyes bleed I sure have

As for stop losses, this is easy for me, mine go on the other side of the bar I am taking. I don't personally add to positions, I simply take trades that I consider worth taking. If it so happens there are 2 on the same pair(that I would have taken independently) then one could call it adding .

Best
Mike
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  #75935  
Old Sep 29, 2010 4:06am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
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  #75955  
Old Sep 29, 2010 10:47am
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Originally Posted by dmuk View Post
Thanks again. This has clarified a lot of thoughts.



I have read through what feels like thousands! My eyes and brain are hurting! However I will continue to persevere.



Very interesting. I like the simplicity. One last question. When you say your set your stop loss on the "other side of the bar I am taking". For example: You enter on Long on Bar A. Your stop is set exactly at the low of Bar A? What timeframe?
Yep this is correct. If I am going long a BUOB, my entry is above the high and my stop is below the low, same for all other bars we use

Best
Mike
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  #75956  
Old Sep 29, 2010 10:49am
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Hey Mike,
Refering to the 1H-BEOB of the E-G yesterday, the position of this 1H-BEOB wasn't that great is was somewhere at a swinglow on the 1H-TF, but if you took the triangle pattern into consideration then all of a sudden this BEOB would look more appealing. Then you could consider this BEOB as a breakout pattern out of that triangle, I didn't take this BeOB because of its position. I'am wright about this observation ?

May the force be with you.
Exactly Zhang, this is a fantastic scenario. Of course no trade cause the BEOB didn't trigger on the next bar, but I play situations like that all the time. They are great information at a BRN plus a wedge pattern

Best
Mike
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  #75957  
Old Sep 29, 2010 10:50am
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
Just a quick check in to say to all my J16 bro's....I hope everyone is well
Dave what's up brotha! How's the wine!?
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  #75960  
Old Sep 29, 2010 11:11am
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Originally Posted by billm View Post
Hi Mike how many pips below the BEOB is/was your entry order. Do you use the same number of pips if its a 1H, 4H or Daily BEOB or increase proportionately ?
thanks
Hey Bill

It was I believe 6 pips below and price went I think 2 pips.

Funny enough I just answered an email with your second question so here is what I said. THis is a rough guide

As for "buffers"

here is a general guide for me of how many pips above/below I use

1hr - 5-10 pips
4hr - 10-15 pips
daily 12- 18 pips
weekly 15-30 pips

Now I always take note of things like near bar highs/lows round numbers etc that is why there is a range. Also certain pairs that are bigger movers get bigger buffers.


Best
Mike
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  #75977  
Old Sep 29, 2010 3:49pm
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Originally Posted by PrincoPrinco View Post
Hey Mike,

Do you add the spreads to these buffers or are they already included?

Thnx
PP
Hey PP

Should have clarified that is without spreads included.

Take care
Mike
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  #75978  
Old Sep 29, 2010 4:41pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
1.62 is a very large pivot that it is trading into. So overall a crowded/traffic pinbar in my eyes, with not much more in the way of confluence. Does that make it untradeable? Not necessarily depends on the trader. But where is price likely to have trouble? 1.62 would be a good starting point for sure

Best
Mike
here is the gbpcad update. 1.62 still acting as a strong pivot
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  #76046  
Old Sep 30, 2010 9:17am
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Originally Posted by roundrock View Post
there is so much free space to go down, support broken with a BEOB. my target is 130.2
Carefull RR, remember for a BEOB it must have a higher high then the previous bars high too

Best
Mike
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  #76057  
Old Sep 30, 2010 1:05pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
I?m looking for 2 charts where the Price is near PPZ. I will wait for a PA till i take a trade

If you think that this are no PPZ levels please tell it me :-)
114 on the eur/jpy is a great former resistance area, great spot to watch for potential PA. There was a BEOB on the 4hr off it that even gave a nice move down

If it breaks and can get above it that area should be a nice play to look for support too
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  #76070  
Old Sep 30, 2010 3:08pm
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Originally Posted by kwikwis View Post
The bar is not closed yet but looks like its getting there to be a Pin bar...
Any one with me?
Attachment 553241
Hey Kwi

Unless it can close very bullish I would be very skeptical right now this late in the day. Liquidity is going to die down and this might not be able to get legs under it. Be careful with these off a couple huge bear bars. If it does break it could get back to the box around 1.5750

Best
Mike
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  #76072  
Old Sep 30, 2010 3:25pm
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Originally Posted by kwikwis View Post
Thank you Mike.
But what about BRN and trend continuation?
I target 1.5765 which is Fib Retracement
Hey Kwi

The BRN are 1.5 and 1.6 so this would be of a larger round number of 1.5700 but it would have to close above strong to be even considered. Gbp/usd is trapped and this can make for a very tough market to trade. Your target would be the underside of the top box which is good b/c one can expect a bounce off there

Again these weak pins with those bearish closes after strong bear moves always suggest weakness to me especially at this time of day.

Take care
Mike
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  #76083  
Old Sep 30, 2010 5:45pm
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Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
For Mike...

When you were talking about bearish close, 2 or 3 posts ago. This means that close price on that Pin (gbpusd) was lower than open? Thus, it's not ok, considering we've had two quite big bearish bars prior to it. We can conclude that it's just unfortunate time at which that bar closed, that made it look like a pin bar.

I hope I'm not too much off track here
Hey Bee

You are very much on track here

Closes are very important, if price can't close above recent highs/lows round numbers, previous opens. This just looks like price barely hanging on within the prior 4hr range as opposed to authoritatively closing above the prior open and showing the bulls could close price up higher then that previous 4hr span etc

Best
Mike
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  #76086  
Old Sep 30, 2010 6:34pm
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Originally Posted by maarc View Post
Could you also please tell how to judge the importance of a particular round number.
Regards
Maarc
Round numbers hold a lot of significance in the markets. Everything from basic psychologically important areas, to major orderflow existing there. So the best thing to be aware of is the importance of them and know they are around. Use them to help line up an area better and take note of that on your charts to make better decisions

Best
Mike
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  #76088  
Old Sep 30, 2010 6:52pm
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Originally Posted by maarc View Post
Thanks Mike
But could you please also tell how to get an idea which round number is more important because price happens to stick around every round number, so how do we get the idea that it will break.
Hey Marc

This is where we want to combine our knowledge of price action analysis and support and resistance. You don't just know that price will or won't break one, the idea is to watch what happens around these areas. So a couple examples

Example charts
One is a trade I took today, and another is one I would be watching for in the future
Remember the story can be different every time we just look to analyze the information each time to make a logical decision(both entries and exits )
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  #76094  
Old Sep 30, 2010 8:16pm
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Originally Posted by fxtsun View Post
Hi Mike,

That AUDCAD trade - very nice!

This type of stuff really encourage me to study more about PA.

Thank you for sharing


fxtsun
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  #76096  
Old Sep 30, 2010 8:21pm
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Originally Posted by Synergistik View Post
Hey Everyone,

Long time reader,...
Hey Synergy

I know some would take this purely b/c of the parity level, but my view is a bit different. To me the uptrend is way to strong and the beob is too small. One of my other rules especially counter trend is a strong close(under a range of bars or at least this one bar). Now could it work, of course but I like to be more comfortable when entering. Let's look where price should likely go though.

Again don't let me talk you that is certainly not my intent, just my view.

Blue box = first trouble area(note my close was very very poor from the 5pm est close so easy no trade on my chart).

Best
Mike
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  #76113  
Old Oct 1, 2010 12:21am
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awesome Joel, I don't read much stuff like that so that was nicely done. Thanks for taking the time


Mike
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  #76117  
Old Oct 1, 2010 1:16am
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Originally Posted by maarc View Post
Hello Mike
Being a junior member my post was published late. Still waiting for your reply on the quoted text.
Hey Marc

Sorry about that didn't see it

The short answer is the quality of the setup and the 1.000 trumps just a minor rd number. If anything I use it to help with trade mgmt if that becomes the case. In this case 2 bars later we formed another BEOB so I moved my stop above that, the price came back an retested .9950 and my entry before moving down to my target. So that area doesn't get ignored we just use it in the mgmt part for myself in this case

Hope that helps
Mike

edit of course we put our sell under the .9950 area.
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  #76120  
Old Oct 1, 2010 1:24am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Mike,
On GBPUSD, about watching price action at 1.6, which is a great resistance as well as forming double top pattern, I have following questions.

1) One way of trading is look for a bearinh PA (BEOB or PB) and play with our J16 conventional method. <==...
Hey C

I don't touch trade, it is not something I have worked with(but it is on my list to test hopefully sooner rather then later).

I would be not even bias at all. Scenarios I would look for.

Strong rejection (big beob/pin etc, manage according to what happened on the way up.

-Boxing/consolidation - watch for breakout both ways play accordingly(breakout + pullback most times).

- price stalls, then breaks through, look for pullback and 1.6 to turn to support

Best
Mike
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  #76123  
Old Oct 1, 2010 1:33am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Thank you Mike for a quick response. But in the above 2nd and 3rd scenarios,
how do you differrentiate between price stalling vs Boxing/consolidation ?

Is price stalling not equal to price consolidation ?
It may well just come up and tap 1.6 and form a weak pin/beob not real true selling, move down slightly before busting through. That is more what I meant by a stall. But any/all of the above scenarios are possible, and my job is to find one that has a very obvious entry otherwise just watch it pass by

Mike
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  #76130  
Old Oct 1, 2010 2:06am
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Originally Posted by maarc View Post
Thanks Mike for clearing the last doubt but now another one has come to my mind.
Its regarding the Breakout trades. When you take a breakout trade for example we are in a rectangular trading range and we get a false breakout which takes the shape of a pinbar. Because of this false breakout i get stopped out. So how do we know when to enter a breakout trade.
Regards
Maarc
for breakouts, I mostly play pullbacks to the former breakout area. So say you are looking at a box of consolidation, you wait for price to breakout of the box(say you are going long), then retest that box, and I look for price action at the top of the box(or pattern) to indicate it is holding.

here was a post explaining the basics a few back
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post4051912


Another way is with priceaction prior to the breakout such as

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post3949134

The other kind of breakouts I play as pure breakouts are of multiple highs, or lows

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post3836606
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post3838802

Best
Mike
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  #76133  
Old Oct 1, 2010 2:20am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I know when I post this it (Eur/Gbp) will probably start heading back down .. lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9h0MNMfKuQ
don't jinx me too dude LOL

ps love sinatra
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  #76196  
Old Oct 1, 2010 10:34am
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Originally Posted by geomink View Post
a) USD/CHF > BUOB Daily at a swing low > Retracement > Entered long > Fast loss by now;

b) GBP/USD > BEOB Daily at a swing high > Retracement > Entered short > Fast loss by now

What's wrong?

Many Thanks

Best trading to all
Hey Geo

We have to know that by taking retracements these bars are not confirmed so it is considered more aggressive(not wrong at all look at the recent J16 and Jarroo posts).

As for the setups, usd/chf I think we shouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole. look at that HUGE trend and this is a very very small bar. What is your additional confluence to make us want to go long?

Gbp/usd I like slightly better since the bar size, but other then that I see it very choppy and would avoid this pair personally till we see 1.6 for some better confluence.

You say losses, but if you are taking on retrace where have you placed your stop loss. And if all the above does not bother you(which is fine of course) then you take your losses and move on . But again don't think bar think, location THEN bar. It will keep you out of a lot of trades that are so-so

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #76197  
Old Oct 1, 2010 10:41am
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Originally Posted by salvador1gr View Post
Hi everybody,

It's my first post at this forum. I'm learning James16 and I want to post this possible short.
What do you think about it? USD/JPY 30min

Feel free to correct me

Attachment 553746
Welcome Sal to the thread

Firstly I have to say it as we preach it for those who are new. Before going down to these lower timeframes read post 1 from James about sticking to higher timfreames daily/weekly. It may be completely uncomfortable but it is a good way to approach this business from a conservative standpoint as you grasp the material.

This 30 min bar would be a pinbar but not at a swing high. This is a deep swing low and we want to see bearish pinbars at swing highs, and bullish pinbars at swing lows.

Here are some posts from James on better locations
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rt#post2752349
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rt#post2800138

here is one with a similar location as yours(but yours is very tiny tiny definitely a no trade)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rt#post2819063

Best
Mike
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  #76198  
Old Oct 1, 2010 10:50am
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Originally Posted by 666Doom View Post
Hey Guys,
This thread is in an explosion mode,the page numbers are growing rapidly.
Looks like a lot of work to do.
I am busy reading this thread again,i guess i missed something.
And Mike what is your buffer in case of playing a breakout trade.
Say a breakout above a RN,or a BRN,i heard you were taught by darkstar,about the orders and all, do you think,an order at 1.2515 will be safe if a breakout is going to happen,because i believe if big boys were really pushing the price up the order will be safe there.
Or you always trade in the direction...
Hey Taz my buffers are no different no matter what I am playing here is a recent post on them

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...27#post4058527

Best
Mike
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  #76199  
Old Oct 1, 2010 10:52am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Mike, EURAUD is consolidating/boxing for the last 6 days (daily chart). Looks like today it broke out and crossing 1.4100-4130.

So now in this case, you will wait here to retrace back to the same zone 1.4100/1.4130 and look for bullish PA bar, right ?
Hey C

I look for bigger more concrete patterns. TO me this is just a small box of consolidation /range not enough for me to personally trade off(doesn't mean you can't), I just try to be picky with everything

Best
Mike
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  #76201  
Old Oct 1, 2010 11:10am
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Originally Posted by dfumagalli View Post
Mike, since you are one of my heroes and you got in the topic about location vs bar: I have seen many examples of wannabe pin bars (low pin bar but with the close NOT higher than open or high pin with close not lower than open) that end up being fantastic trades because they were at the extreme of a swing and with no FTA nor traffic nearby.
Would you discard those wannabe pins if you see them, because they close "wrong" or would you take them because everything else looks good?
Hey D

Depends on the situation would need examples to tell you better. Sometimes one thing can be slightly off but the trade is fine. I don't have a set rule to always do something. But if a pin works out fantastic and I found something wrong with it I don't care what it does, b/c it isn't about that single individual trade about my overall rules for the long run

If you have any examples I would be glad to evaluate my perspective
Mike
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  #76205  
Old Oct 1, 2010 11:37am
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Originally Posted by antgal23 View Post
Hi folks

I am not the best at maths so thats why I am asking this qn

My entry was 1.4142 with a SL at 1.40650. This is a 77 pip SL, right?

I put on a standard lot of 1 which is around 2.5 % ($125) of a $5000 a/c

I closed with a 41 pip profit ($400) This means if my SL had been hit I would have been down $800.

This cant be right. I only wanted to risk 2% or $100. What am I missing?

Anthony
Hey Anthony

Your lot size is too high

With a 77 pip stop loss and you want that to equal 2% or 100$ you would risk( I picked eur/aud as a guess not sure what pair you were trading)

Approx 13,000 units which would give you a loss of $100 and 41 pip profit would equal about $51 profit. So approx 1% gain
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  #76206  
Old Oct 1, 2010 11:38am
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
Need to base your % off the pips. .0077 * 100,000 (1 lot) = $770.00

With $5000 @ 2% = $100 / .0077 = roughly 1.3 mini lots or (12987 k)

I think I got that all right
thanks slade
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  #76211  
Old Oct 1, 2010 1:24pm
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Originally Posted by dmc View Post
My TP was hit on the Eur/GBP Daily

I set my TP around the Round number 87, which is a clear PPZ zone.

I feel this one may have more room to run, but going into the weekend after a tough month, and now at resistance level I figured it was not worth the risk. If I were to keep this one in I would manage according to how the day closed.

As far as manging the trade it was fairly easy. at the close of yesterday I had moved my stop under the most recent BUOB.

The great things baout this trade where the BRN, and the Big bar engulfing several previous...
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  #76213  
Old Oct 1, 2010 2:47pm
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Originally Posted by geomink View Post
Trend long > DBH TF Daily > Good break > enter long > Fast loss

what's wrong with it?

many thanks

best trading to all
Hey G

I don't see a good TBH here, but here would be my recommendations. If you are going to play those then you have to go for quick take profits in my view. You get your quick burst and get your stop to b/e 15-20 pips , not enough info to do more then that here,.

I think it is much easier for new traders to look for the obvious pins/outside bars at the prime locations. You will sit on your hands a lot but it will take away the finessing you need to do with these types of other patterns. IMO if you want to play multiple bar high breaks, look for times when you have 4+ highs/lows in a row.

Best
Mike
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  #76263  
Old Oct 3, 2010 6:36am
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
Thank you for letting me know your view of consolidation. But when you say more concrete.. is it close to 20 bars or so ? I am just trying to get some quantitative aspect to start with.. though this alone may not drive the trade.
Hey C

It is not an exact number of bars for me, it is the look of the pattern on the chart in relation to what else is going on.

Wish I could be more specific

Best
Mike
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  #76264  
Old Oct 3, 2010 6:41am
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
fxtsun
Do you see on the pic how the high is higher then the previous bar and the low lower then the previous low?

And the close of an BUOB mus?t be higher then the previous candle close
And the close of an BEOB mus?t be lower then the previous candle close

Hope it helps ;-)

So i go sleep its late here in germany good night ^^
Hey guys just to correct a bit. This is something I personally do with my outside bars, but an outside bar does not have to close above the previous high/low, it simply should be near the end(I prefer it to close outside though).


Hope everyone had a nice weekend
Mike
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  #76279  
Old Oct 3, 2010 6:49pm
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Originally Posted by maarc View Post
Hello Mike
I am currently watching a good short opportunity on this pair. It is on its all time high PPZ, and there is also a divergence in MACD on the weekly and there is also some sort of triple bar high low close. But i am circumspect in taking it until it crosses 1.30 BRN. Would like you to see it and present your opinion. It would be very beneficent.
Regards
Maarc
Hey Maarc

There is no divg on my MACD as both price is sloping down as well as the MACD. I see a very weak closing small pin towards previous resistance. TO me this is reactionary as opposed to true strength and there is a ton of support below. I would not touch this one based on that signal at all. Need to see something more concrete before fighting the recent uptrend. Daily is nothing more then a bearish day on a friday, so not much more there either. I would wait to see price get up higher.

Best
Mike
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  #76302  
Old Oct 3, 2010 11:46pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Would this still be a playable BUOB? It did break but its off the monthly so it should have more time to develope.
sure shows some strength looks to be there. 1.44/1.45 looks like the next stop if it breaks

Mike
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  #76303  
Old Oct 3, 2010 11:49pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
sure shows some strength looks to be there. 1.44/1.45 looks like the next stop if it breaks

Mike
1.37 could be the retrace level on this one, notice the PPZ at this area, and the flip
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  #76306  
Old Oct 3, 2010 11:57pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
If it breaks?

The next candle already went 47 pips past the high.

Is there some set number of pips for a buffer on the monthly?
50+ seems about right for most monthly bars(remember in relation to the bar. ). Not that I would play this one, but an order above 1.4150 seems most appropriate.

Best
Mike
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  #76368  
Old Oct 4, 2010 8:11am
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Originally Posted by LiuLangZe View Post
Hi Mike, any reason why you will skip this trade? Looks pretty fine to me.
Hey Liu

Simply isn't enough info here to place a trade for me. Just a BUOB. WHere is price likely to go on a break? 1.44/1.45 though


Best
Mike
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  #76394  
Old Oct 4, 2010 7:01pm
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Originally Posted by premierpip View Post
would any of you take this BEOB? i'm looking at this trade and is expecting price to reach the 365. what do you guys think?
your 365(8600) seems like a very logical area if it breaks. I don't see enough confluence to fight the recent up move but am using it to move my stop to b/e on my long BUOB off the 8500 personally

Best
Mike
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  #76399  
Old Oct 4, 2010 7:13pm
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Originally Posted by premierpip View Post
what other confluence can i look for to make this trade better? how much is needed to reverse a move like this?
For me PP it just doesn't fit my style, I don't want to have to move to b/e take profit at 8600 coming off the strong up move. Since I am long from teh BUOB off 8500 I am using it just to move my stop under it instead. I like BUOBs/BEOBs that engulf multiple ranges. Here I just see a BEOB swing high engulfing one bar. If it was engulfing 2-3 bars I would be more comfortable. I don't use trendlines, and the Fib makes sense to me, just not enough again to warrant a position from my style. Fighting two buobs, and into the 8500 overall. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see us retrace 8600 easy on a break and lower before a move higher but I am always thinking about mgmt down the line before I take a trade. So by all means not talkign you out of it, I think your plan makes very valid sense. Was just offering how I was using todays bar to help me in a current trade from taking a loss and then I will re-evaluate if we come back to 8500(where I would expect buying again), just not worth going through the drawdown on a current trade for me

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #76400  
Old Oct 4, 2010 7:15pm
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Originally Posted by premierpip View Post
thanks for the encouragement! (:

but what i have trouble is really managing it. what do i do if price reaches 8600? if i move my SL to BE and take half profit off, will i be limiting the space for it to retrace?
bingo this is what I was getting at and wanted to hear you thinking about more then anything. You could do a few things, you could take profit(full) take half(use the other half to net breakeven your trade) or move that other half to b/e). You could move your stop above the current bar high if you believe this is a situation to let a trade run.

I always use this thought process. Do I believe strongly this trade has a large room to run. If so I move to a trailing process. If not I move to a quick take profit or move to b/e. You never know if you are going to be fully right, rarely am I. But if you understand your style over lots of trades you know you will land net positive in the long run(the more important thing). Track multiple exits, so 6months - year down the line you can compare real data(this is what I do).
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  #76403  
Old Oct 4, 2010 7:23pm
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Originally Posted by premierpip View Post
i understand these stuff better now. the BEOB is trying to fight the 2 BUOB which is not a good situation to be in, going into a strong push up. so you will think about how easy will the management be before taking a trade? if those 2 BUOB were just normal Bullish bars, will you take today's BEOB?
For me not necessarily, If this beob engulfed say 2-3 bars, was at a BRN, had more information then probably yes. Just a case where I would rather not be in then be in and a bit unsure. Have to feel comfortable otherwise becomes more difficult to manage(again not that anyone should not play it, it's if YOU feel good about it).

Best
Mike
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  #76414  
Old Oct 4, 2010 8:18pm
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Originally Posted by premierpip View Post
okay. so i have to be really careful with the minor PPZ, because when price breaks the old supports, it will most likely becomes resistance. and in today's scenario, if price breaks the resistance again, it will use that level as support. which means support will push the price up. so if my trade is triggered and it went back as support, i know that the price will be going up with that level as support. it will reach my SL soon. so if it breaks, i might be better off cutting my lose. right?

anyway, i have another problem. as you guys know analyzing...
I think if you are waiting for the more obvious you won't have to update your charts all that much. Major PPZs are around for a LONG time, look for them and watch the different pairs at them. In terms of once you are in a trade I think most of us narrow down the small minor zones then, rather then covering ones chart in support/resistance.

identify the bigger/better areas to find trades(they will be the most obvious ones that jump out) and you will simplify things greatly. Same goes for what bars you choose to trade. The easier it is to see the easier it is to trade in my opinion

Best
Mike
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  #76421  
Old Oct 4, 2010 9:20pm
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Originally Posted by Imphilomath View Post
What is 'PB by proxy' ??
Proxy is using another bar as our 'left eye', when price is not contained within the previous bar

Example

The check mark is our proxy bar. The arrow is our pinbar. Notice it is not a traditional pin that has open and close within the prior bar. Instead it has a close within the proxy bar


Best
Mike
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  #76426  
Old Oct 4, 2010 9:35pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Thanks Mike

Here's another.
a much better one, I grabbed the first one :P
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  #76428  
Old Oct 4, 2010 9:45pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I don't see any BEOB on that chart, in fact I don't see any PA at all.

Am I missing something?


My FXDD chart has a clear BEOB.

Maybe you are talking about a different feed.
RR has the Sunday bar that we ignore since it is only a few hours of data(at least most ignore it)


Mike
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  #76442  
Old Oct 4, 2010 11:26pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I found this video of the Rac-man this weekend.

http://www.wimp.com/suitdemo/
that is just pure sickness
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  #76454  
Old Oct 5, 2010 12:54am
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
I wouldnt read too much into that. You were lucky enough to be on the right side of some surprise news.

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still nice to watch even less then stellar PA get to the First trouble areas though ( I would never trade that pin)
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  #76457  
Old Oct 5, 2010 1:00am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
just wonder why you wouldn't take it? too small? would want PB to be bearish? Too strong of an up trend? Just curious, I know i'm over-looking something.

here ya go spookie

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post4068325

These are the ones I play the where is price going game
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  #76498  
Old Oct 5, 2010 8:44am
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Originally Posted by premierpip View Post
what's "buffer" you guys talking about? what is it?
Hey Pip

By buffer we mean how far above/below an area your buy/sell goes.

So for the eur/gbp you have a daily beob that broke the low by about 4 pips. For me buffers for my sell are going to go roughly 10-18 pips depending on the pair on the daily. So it is a case if I was going to play this beob that my sell would not just get nicked in. Do you have to use one? No but then this can become an issue.

Best
Mike
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  #76500  
Old Oct 5, 2010 9:01am
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Originally Posted by xmzhang View Post
Hey Mike, question about my breakout trade of the E-G, is the FTA one of the swing highs of the flagpattern or is it an another level ? As for now price seems to be finding some trouble at first swinghigh of the flagpattern.

May the force be with you.
Yep You nailed it. Each point of the pattern becomes easy areas to watch for trouble, with the "top" of the pattern or starting point becoming a great target area I use

Mike
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