we teach beginners to wait for bar confirmations but thats not all we do.
its a very simple retrace entry technique based on a price flip from s/r or vice versa.
the key as always is to be picky about the ones we choose to trade.
i will try to post a few more.
jim
Here's one Jim, that's pretty cool, on the Daily Eur/Aud.
Price falls and finds Support around the 1.4000 (red arrow, green box).
Price bounces upward hard and then fallls again and finds Support at the 1.4000 (purple box).
Price breaks through Support (yellow box), the 1.4000. We now look for Price to act as strong Resistance that was once strong Support ( blue box), at the 1.4000.
Currently the 1.4000 is acting as Support again. The two bullish PBs on the 4 hour could be confirming this new Support, although a bit of traffic and the 150 ema not helpng it run. But as we can see, the two PBs hit their target.
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This post is in response to the recent EUR/USD chart J16 had posted in the "James16 is not credible thread". I had originally sent this as an email but have been asked to post this in the free thread. I have assumed it to be this one. Hopefully someone or James can help out. Link and original chart image have been included.
I have followed this forum and your posts for a long time. It is unfortunate that there is such negativity flowing,...
Hey dmuk,
As James stated this was a pivot or touch type trade at the 1.3300. No bar or PA setup was involved.
You are correct, in early 2010 Price acted as Support at the 1.3300. Then in Aug, Price moved up to previous Support and acted as Resistance.
Last week Price broke through this PPZ level or previous Resistance, the 1.3300 and went up to the 1.3400ish level. Price began to retrace from the 1.3400 and guess where Price would find Support again after it broke Resistance?? you guess it right . .at the 1.3300 .. .that was the entry.
The stop loss was tight at this level . .probably 25-30 pips. Once price started moving back up , . . I'm sure James moved his stop loss to break even pretty quick.
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When adding to your position, do you look for the same entry setup or are different rules applied?
4 - Stop Loss
Where is the initial stop loss placed? (is this in fixed pips or earlier area of interest?)
And when is it moved?
I have many more questions but hoping I can get these answered. I will continue reading the thread. Good luck in the forum (not that you need it) and hope the focus can be brought back to making trading achievable for us newbies!
Cheers,
dmuk
Adding to this position or adding to any position after your in the money, . .I personally would need a quality type setup just like the one that I got into in the firat place. . . meaning my rules for an entry do not change.
As I said, the stop loss on these type of entries are pretty tight and moving to break even quickly is a given, for me.
Once Price broke the 1.3400, which was also a earlier PPZ level, I would move my stop loss under that and see if Price could break through the 1.3500 and find new Support there. . . which I believe James is currently doing.
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This post is in response to the recent EUR/USD
Cheers,
dmuk
Check out this chart from a recent post from James16 on the Daily Eur/Chf :
Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
chart
This is a similar situation as the 1.3300 on the Eur/Usd.
The 1.3100 and 1.3150ish are PPZ levels and Price has broken through these levels pretty hard indicated by a good size BUOB.
As you can see, Price has acted as previous Resistance at these levels. Also previous Support. Guess where Price may find Support after it has broken through these level? Let's watch and find out . .shall we.
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Now I know that this is bcos of the different timezones, but how can we have any confidence in the bars when half the world is seeing a different chart to the rest.
Would appreciate a response from some of the seniors around here.
I'm not sure what Plat you're using but your chart doesn't show Price reaching the 86.50 level. I believe that feed is bad.
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Check out this chart from a recent post from James16 on the Daily Eur/Chf :
This is a similar situation as the 1.3300 on the Eur/Usd.
The 1.3100 and 1.3150ish are PPZ levels and Price has broken through these levels pretty hard indicated by a good size BUOB.
As you can see, Price has acted as previous Resistance at these levels. Also previous Support. Guess where Price may find Support after it has broken through these level? Let's watch and find out . .shall we.
Did this bounce provide enough movement to cover your risk and see if she runs? Only you know the answer.
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Interesting where Price found Support on this Daily BUOB on the Gbp/Chf.
Previous bar High . . the 1.5500 BRN. or maybe its not that interesting any more . . just predictable.
Still alot of traffic in front of this BUOB.
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Thanks very much for the informative replies. Apologies if these questions sound repetitive but I am keen to understand the real mechanics behind the trades.
As I understand it, this was not necessarily an A+ setup. It is simply a trade playing off historical and reliable horizontal support and resistance lines?
You say "probably".
What is the preferred stop loss rules (ie how do we determine the exact figure of pips)? I would of thought a stop loss slightly under the new or earlier line of support would make practical...
No apologies necessary dmuk . . that's why this thread is so great. We are all here to help one another.
Yes, it was a simple trade playing off historical and reliable horizontal support and resistance lines. The clearer they are the better. A+ setups will have a well defined PA confirmation with obvious supported confluences.
Preferred stop loss rules is something you must decide and test. Typically the you want a stop loss on this type of entry to be pretty tight . . for me its 25-30 pips depending on the pair. It will either work out or it won't.
Moving to break even quickly means just that . .after Price moves 10 pips, 20 pips, 30 pip in your favor you move to break even. It could be within 30 seconds or a few mintues. If you feel that your stop loss is well protected you could hold on much longer until your FTA or target is hit.
Adding to a position is usually under the guides of the same rules and criteria. just like a brand new trade.
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Targeting the Daily bar lows in the white box 0.8450ish (if the order triggers within a reasonable time of course)
I was hoping for Hard Break/momentum follow through on this but we pulled back to the wedge already
I'm in Arizona now so my daytrading has become "night-trading"
Yes that blue line of past bars lows will be in play. Its the immediate Daily bar Lows that's hold things up now.
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So if adding to a position, we are essentially taking a brand new trade? We look for the same rules/criteria? The same stop loss rules apply?
Here's an example of a setup where you may add to a position. Although this may not be the best example due to the traffic of this BUOB.
An entry at the previous High of the Daily Gbp/Chf BUOB that I showed earlier, at the 1.5500 BRN.
An added position would be applied at the break of the BUOB. But due to the BUOB has a lot of traffic and being in consolidation, a second entry would not apply or make sense. Unless a hard break and tight stop loss is applied.
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I redraw all my ppz levels every sunday, beginning on the daily time frame moving down to 4hour.. I trade the 1hour but rarely use the 1hour time frame to draw ppz..
I haven't been trading gbp/jpy recently because of lacking ppz confirmation in the current trading range. This chart I attached is how I currently see things.. Any opinions regarding my ppz's are very welcome.
the ppz's I highlighted are from daily, the normal red lines are 4hour ppz's.
I guess what I am trying to show here (and all...
Very good point anderou. If a pair is being choppy or has been in consolidation for a while, like the Gbp/Jpy has been as of late . .then move on to more clearer pairs.
I would also look to the Monthly and Weekly for PPZ levels as well, anderou. Nothing looks better than a big Hourly PB off a Monthly PPZ level.
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there is one thing better than this and that is being one of the traders that created the pin in the first place by entering at the top/bottom of the bar at the monthly ppz. Thats the guy I want to be. I then hand my position over to you having already taken my profit with low risk and no drawdown. What do you think?
Touche M.A.C.
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Targeting the Daily bar lows in the white box 0.8450ish (if the order triggers within a reasonable time of course)
I was hoping for Hard Break/momentum follow through on this but we pulled back to the wedge already
I'm in Arizona now so my daytrading has become "night-trading"
There's your momentum breaking Jonny. . .
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Did anyone took the daily BUOB on the Loonie for a quick ride towards the 10350 ? Entry was off the 1H-TF via another BUOB closing above the RNB @ 10300.
May the force be with you.
Don't see the BUOB on the Daily Loonie, xmz. I believe your looking at a Sunday bar which I ignore due to lack of info. I do like that 1.0300 PPZ level.
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Not a good bar to base a Daily setup on . .as you said, its 2 hours not 24 . .
It just lacks a full day of data in the prime trading sessions . .London and New York. Much like a Holiday bar.
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Here's an example of a setup where you may add to a position. Although this may not be the best example due to the traffic of this BUOB.
An entry at the previous High of the Daily Gbp/Chf BUOB that I showed earlier, at the 1.5500 BRN.
An added position would be applied at the break of the BUOB. But due to the BUOB has a lot of traffic and being in consolidation, a second entry would not apply or make sense. Unless a hard break and tight stop loss is applied.
There you go dmuk, an example how you can add to a positon based on two separate, but equal trades. Meaning the BUOB was the common denominator. Although I didn't add to my position due to the BUOB's traffic, even though the hard break, tight stop loss entry would have worked.
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Now i know guys,some may mave discussed this pair.
But i have a question,the beob on 4h chart on this pair worked but found support right there,now it is going up to test 0.8500 will that count as pullback with fresh sell order place there.
See the beob is second last bar
Regards
Taz
That may be true Taz . .more sellers coming in . . I would like to see a bigger BEOB even more sellers coming in, that's when momentum takes over.
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Thanks The lower one was a touch trade. I would have bought it a few pips lower but i missed it. I entered the second one beacuse of the pinbar forming on the 4h chart and i put the buy order just above the pb and above the 1h ppz.
So how was it? Hope you had good weather.
Nice ppfx . .
Its was great to get out of dodge . . the weather was cold, windy and rainy . . but that's the whole point of the outing we take at the end of the season. To battle the elements . .its was alot of fun, however when we were younger, 25 years ago . .now its a battle . . .lol
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I am holding on to this as GBPUSD has made new highs today and EURUSD has not taken out yesterdays highs. If EURUSD closes strongly above yesterdays high on a 1 hr timeframe or higher I will think about closing.
Makes sense to me fxp. I may let it play out and enter Stop and Reverse style if it comes to that.
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I'm also considering stop and reverse if needed. I would potentially go for a longer TP if long as well.
Sitting on hands for now
I agree . . A break to the long side, instead of to the short side which it did, sure looked better structure wise. But I stopped thinking on this IBs at BRNs long ago. lol
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How old are you Sir, if i may ask? I thought you and Mike were about the same age. I thought both of you are in your thirties at least, with all your knowledge. Mike then surprised me when he said hes in his twenties.
I'm 48.
Mike is like 26 but he has an old soul . . I mean that in a good way, Mike. An old soul is good to have in the trading business.
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I always thought mike was young,and he is,he is so active in all the things and more to it,he has a tons of knowledge,hope i learn from him.
I'm also 20 ppfx,i read you were also 20.
But age is just a number,isn't that right.
For me Jim and Mike are both equal in all respects of trading,but the big man is a great teacher.
And not to forget you Jarroo sir,and Ghous,and this list is just a start.
Regards
Taz
Jim and Mike has played a big role in how I learn to trade. You can't go wrong from learning from them. They have made me the trader that I am today.
Sure . . you begin to develop your own style and comfort zones, but the foundation of my trading comes from those great teachers.
Man . .I wish I started when I was in my 20's . .
You guys got a great future in store . .
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Yes it's sometimes good not to have a bias I agree.
Did you see the GBPCHF? It hit the Jarroo take off area (previous bar high) nicely. It was also a round number.
I guess you missed these posts fxp . .
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Interesting where Price found Support on this Daily BUOB on the Gbp/Chf.
Previous bar High . . the 1.5500 BRN. or maybe its not that interesting any more . . just predictable.
Still alot of traffic in front of this BUOB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Here's an example of a setup where you may add to a position. Although this may not be the best example due to the traffic of this BUOB.
An entry at the previous High of the Daily Gbp/Chf BUOB that I showed earlier, at the 1.5500 BRN.
An added position would be applied at the break of the BUOB. But due to the BUOB has a lot of traffic and being in consolidation, a second entry would not apply or make sense. Unless a hard break and tight stop loss is applied.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
There you go dmuk, an example how you can add to a positon based on two separate, but equal trades. Meaning the BUOB was the common denominator. Although I didn't add to my position due to the BUOB's traffic, even though the hard break, tight stop loss entry would have worked.
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Stop and reverse. Managed to cut short trade at -.6 r. Intuition used to cut the short and go long due to 1 hr price action. Allowed an early entry into the long.
Taken full profit on long now due to quick move upwards which usually leads to a retrace. Take profit at previous daily high. Small win for the day.
Maybe I should have waited for the long but you never know which way she's going to break......
I did the same fxp. . . but took a full bar loss (-40 pips) on the shortside and my long was triggered on the other side. The I4B did hit its targets on the short, previous bars Lows.
Its a strong setup, I4Bs at BRNs, I would traded it the same way if another one is presented.
Let's see if the previous bars Highs, the long side targets, can now act as Support and ride this baby to the moon.
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Yeah I would still like to be long myself after getting out a little early but happy to end the day positive pips. Glad you caught the long mate
We did talk about the Stop and Reverse and I believe the quality of this type of I4B setup calls for it. As oppose to just a "random" I4B.
Nothing wrong with hitting your targets fxp . . If I did the same my short side trade would have a small profit and my long side would have been big one. It goes through my mind on every trade. But I like these setups at the BRN because they do tend to run to the next BRN so I do give it a bit more leeway . .albeit only 40 pips . . lol
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Hey Jarroo,
About these sunday bars, today on the DJ-index price retreaced to the low of the sunday bar to the pip. If you take the sunday bar into consideration we see a not so perfect DBHLC-pattern (the highs are 10 pip off). But price is behaving exactly as expected according to what I've learned (from you, lol). So taken this sunday bar into consideration, you could have anticipated in a price drop when price pullback to the previous bar low of the DBHLC-pattern.
May the force be with you.
This may be true xmz, but I do not put a lot of faith in Sunday or Holiday bars. The bar is just too incomplete of information as a stand alone bar.
If you find the information they provide as useful . .then go for it.
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Awesome fxprocessor Unfortunately my intuition isnt as good as yours and my SL was hit -1% on my demo lol but i managed to take this baby for a quick 30 pips half closed stops at BE.
Well it made the FTA so not a failed setup, but it was a failed trade for me as I overestimated the momentum behind this move and ended up with a -1R
With hindsight I would have reduced risk once the first target was hit, as this market still seems a little whacky (many false breakouts and so on) and runners are rare.
Jonny
These words say it all, Jonny . .
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We were watching this one and here is what I was watching Taz
1hr breakout pattern, big beob(think the preemptive breakout we spoke about). Now the next bar never triggered my order so I canceled it. I was asked if I would hold with the 4hr BEOB, but it was way to small for me.
Hey Mike, so if the BEOB was bigger it would have been one for you to take.
Would you have a bullish bias since this is a bullish wedge or pennant formation? Or a bigger BEOB would throw that bullish pennant out the window?
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I am just in. Lets see how it plays out! Nice trend, rejected off BRN and closing below the zone.
I used the small insider bar just after that pin-like structure for the trigger.
My bias is long since the trend is up, but since we are straddling the BRN, I was open to both situations. The One hr beob was great size great spot, but next bar never triggered it. The 4hr beob was just way to small. Would have needed to be much bigger(as now your fighting that uptrend with such a small bar. Now the daily beob is nice continuation so let's see if we can work up higher away from the 8500 pivot zone BRN
A bigger 4 Hour BBEOB would tell a different story for sure . . Thanks Mike
I think you mean "BUOB" on the Daily as continuation . . fly me to the moon.
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EU BUOB on the daily.
BRN at the 1.35
Swing High
50% fib confluence matching around the 1.3500 zone - the current daily (with 12 am NY close) bar fib.
Placed a buy limit order at the 50% fib.
I am trying to apply the same thinking as James previous EUR/CHF BUOB trade that was missed by 13 pips or am I off and are these two situations not similar?
Thank you,
KK
NVM, I read Jaroos post on waiting PA confirmation before entering. I am assuming PA on the daily or less as the retrace occurs. However, I guess since I can't watch the trade,...
Yes, PA confirmation for a retracement entry is always preferred. Price could retrace down to the 1.35 (previous Resistance) and find new Support to continue in its upward trend.
So instead of just a touch trade to the previous bar Highs at the 1.35, we would look for PA confrimation to confirm this new Support. It could be on the Daily, 4 hour , Hourly or even the 15min. I would prefer a high time frame just because it would be stronger due to the more info or more data that they provide.
You can also see on the chart the retracement to the 1.3300 provided a nice BUOB on the 4 hour to confirm new Support after a retrace for an entry.
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EU BUOB on the daily.
BRN at the 1.35
Swing High
50% fib confluence matching around the 1.3500 zone - the current daily (with 12 am NY close) bar fib.
Placed a buy limit order at the 50% fib.
I am trying to apply the same thinking as James previous EUR/CHF BUOB trade that was missed by 13 pips or am I off and are these two situations not similar?
Thank you,
KK
NVM, I read Jaroos post on waiting PA confirmation before entering. I am assuming PA on the daily or less as the retrace occurs. However, I guess since I can't watch the trade,...
Here's similar situation on the Eur/Jpy, BUOB on the Daily.
We can see on the Weekly that the area in green is one big PPZ level. All those Highs and Lows at different levels meeting to form this wide PPZ level. Not very clear, but when in doubt, go for the BRN . .the 115.00.
On the Daily we have a BUOB at a swing High, we like these at a swing Low but as a continuation setup they are tradable.
Price retraces down to the previous Resistance level , 113.50. We now look for some bullish PA at this retracement level to confirm new Support for a possible entry.
Any one see anything on any lower time frame off the 113.50?
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The story is, what support and resistance looks like, do we have consolidation, boxing of price, is it wide open, are there patterns forming beyond the bars. Is there divergence, are we at a retracement of a larger move, a PPZ, the list goes on and on. Be sure to click James16 name and review all his posts till your eyes bleed I sure have
As for stop losses, this is easy for me, mine go on the other side of the bar I am taking. I don't personally add to positions, I simply take trades that I consider worth taking. If it so happens there are...
Its all about the story and putting the pieces together.
Each added position on this Aud/Cad run has a different independent story.
Thanks Mike.
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My eyes might start to bleed from watching the aud/usd pa. This is unchartered territory for me. I trade off 1 and 4 hour charts. And I do this well. So why mess with trading style? The au PA I am watching now is off the weekly.
The question is, do I keep to what I know and do best, or do I watch this weekly pa and trade it as if it was a 1 hour chart, small position, 1% risk, and set tp and sl according to the pa (that is if I see any convincing pa in the coming weeks/days).
I think I will only watch this one, I have no reason to start...
Watch the Weekly PA and trade it as if it was a 1 hour chart.
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EU BUOB on the daily.
BRN at the 1.35
Swing High
50% fib confluence matching around the 1.3500 zone - the current daily (with 12 am NY close) bar fib.
Placed a buy limit order at the 50% fib.
I am trying to apply the same thinking as James previous EUR/CHF BUOB trade that was missed by 13 pips or am I off and are these two situations not similar?
Thank you,
KK
NVM, I read Jaroos post on waiting PA confirmation before entering. I am assuming PA on the daily or less as the retrace occurs. However, I guess since I can't watch the trade,...
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Here's similar situation on the Eur/Jpy, BUOB on the Daily.
We can see on the Weekly that the area in green is one big PPZ level. All those Highs and Lows at different levels meeting to form this wide PPZ level. Not very clear, but when in doubt, go for the BRN . .the 115.00.
On the Daily we have a BUOB at a swing High, we like these at a swing Low but as a continuation setup they are tradable.
Price retraces down to the previous Resistance level , 113.50. We now look for some bullish PA at this retracement level to confirm new Support for...
Here's a followup Fxknkw987 on the Eur/Jpy Daily BOUB.
As I said, the previous Resistance level of the PPZ at the 113.50 and 114.00 are not that clear or well defiined, (in green) so it could be a bumpy ride. All more to cover our risk with a small or tight stop loss.
Price retraces to the the 113.50 near the previous bars highs of the Daily BUOB. We could take a touch trade or see if there is any PA on the lower time frame to confirm this retracement level.
The 4 hour time frame didn't show any thing that stood out on this feed (FxPro) but the Hourly showed a pinish looking BUOB. We can look at this as retracement level confirmation and take the break of it or wait for further PA confirmation.
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Phew, have I been busy with one thing and another.
Anyway, I have just realized that I have been drawing my PPZ incorrectly, not completely incorrectly but a bit off. I mean, I think I have in many instances been using individual bars rather and stand alone resistance or support, than price flips.
So, I am working on PPZ only as, I figure correct ppz is at least 80% of the battle.
As I was practicing this, I saw this EUR/CAD H4 setup.
Let's see what the market wants to do.
EDIT: Changed charts from black to white.
I think you're saying the same thing Pb. PPZ levels are where Support and Resistance levels meet. Or better said, where Support levels turn into a Resistance level and vice versa.
Let's take a closer look at the yellow area at the 1.4100, back eariler this year.
Price finds Support at the 1.4100 . .Price breaks through the 1.4100 . ..then turns into Resistance.
Your 4 Hour chart is show the same thing . .Resistance turning into Support at the 1.4000, potentially.
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CADCHF looks to be in a good spot to watch for bullish pa. Daily divergence, a BRN that has given big reactions previously.
The .9500-9450 has acted as strong Support in the past and recently.
Nice confluence with the 61.8 Fib, which I view as added strength.
Bullish PA closing above the .9500, as roundrock has said, would definitely be well supported. But a strong Price breakthrough at this level, I can easily see it acting as strong Resistance. Which the .9500 level may already be; (strong Resistance).
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Yes, I understand what you are saying, but previously, I think when setting up my own charts, I would end up with a birdcage.
I am just watching this video of James showing some person who also seemed to have trouble drawing PPZ, to do them on the weekly main flip areas then move down to the H4 tf and only draw in the main flips.
He also mentions that it is good to learn to eyeball these minor areas and not put them all on the chart, I suppose it may cause us to freeze up.
PA off the Daily and Weekly PPZ levels will usualy cut through those minor areas.
Remember our Usd/Mxn Weekly chart? (Pb and I drew PPZ levels on this pair back in May, indicated by the yellow box). If you look at the minor levels, say on the 4 hour or even the Daily, you'll see Price will usually hit its target despite them.
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I often change the chart every few hours changing my mind about the PPZ or something else. Now, I am starting to see between the lines a little.
Previously price seemed random and nonsensical, now I am starting to see a clear TOP & BOTTOM with ranges in between these two as it goes back to retest these areas. I was always mystified how you guys could say, "Price is now going to test this area", I just could not get a grip on it.
Still don't completely but, the 10 hours a day studying what the big guns are saying is certainly...
You'll get there brother . .it just takes some time and practise.
Have you been viewing James' and Mike's videos and webinars? Viewing them, as Mike would say, till your eyes bleed. lol I know the feeling.lol
I viewed them many many times . . I could go to bed and listen to them like a radio and veiw the charts they were talking about in my head . . . a little crazy but I enjoy them.
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Hi guys, sorry if this question had been asked before but I just cant seem to find it through quick search. Why is that in FXPro I notice no bearish pin but shown on another broker. Is this something to do with the timezone of the respective broker? Is there any preference as to which timezone is preferred? Tks.
It has to do with the broker's Closing time. Difference closing times meaning different PA formations. FXPro close its day at 5:00 PM EST other broker's may close its day at 6:00PM or 7:00PM. I like FxPro, closing time is with New York.
But there's really not that much difference, what is important is that all of these different feeds have the same PPZ levels.
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New people including myself, should ponder how much effort Jarroo put into studying trading to be able to simplify it like this.
Jarroo, have you EVER had any problems with the J16 methodology when you first started? It is hard to believe you ever did.
Oh sure I did, Pb . . I had the same problems like every one else . .making it more complicated then it really is . . not being patient . . . finding the so-so setups instead of the higher quality A+ setups . .etc. Many others have caught on to this method alot faster then me .. lol
I just kept at it and had a lot help from James16, Mike, and many many others on this great thread.
I should have added "Price breaking through" on that chart. Here we go . . .
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Interesting, Jarroo, I think people need to hear this. Well, I do!
How did you find the PPZ levels, did you have any trouble with them?
Sure I did. I would copy and print all of James16 charts and many others and veiw and study them like a book. Then the videos came out and that was great.
You just keep at it Pb. The time and practise does pay off. It will hit you . .you're already making really good progress . .you just don't know it yet. . . it'll hit you.
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Still in the eu trade. Didn't see much movement through the asian session. I am expecting a move up during today's sessions. Anyhow, what I have been seeing is that many of the trades I take off 1hour pa also come to be a setup on the 4hour, the 4hour just being a bit late in entry some of the time, but much clearer in setup formation etc. mmm, food for thought, it would be nice to be able to make the switch from trading the highly intense energy sapping 1hour to the more chilled 4hour without losing profitability..
Anybody experienced this before?...
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Watch the Weekly PA and trade it as if it was a 1 hour chart.
.
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Thanks Jim. The thing is that i have someone who opened my eyes a few days ago. I think you know who am i talking about.... thats right, the one im talking about is YOU
Ive read a lot about touch trading, ive gone through the majority of raczek's posts and i became familiar with his type of trading, but then the other day when you posted those charts it was like a revelation for me. It just hit me. I was like aha:
I then opened my charts and began looking for some...
Glad I could help, ppfx.
Go . . ppfx . .. go ..
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The yellow area looks like it has been a strong support area in the past with this bullish flag pattern dropping right onto it. Does anyone think it is a good place to look for PA to enter long? I know it is against the long term trade, but the strong up-move weeks back suggests that it is a possibility. It is also around 131 RN.
Yes, I do think its a good area to look for Bullish PA.
On the Weekly chart, we have a BUOB ("strong up-move weeks back") and Price is retracing to its previous bar High which is near the 131.00, PPZ level.
But the Weekly BUOB did not break which usually means the bullish momentum has been lost, allbeit temporaily. So I would not rule out the 131.00 or the 130.00 BRN for Price to regain its Support and continue its upward potential move.
Again with solid PA to show us the way.
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So you would drop to a lower timeframe to look for a PA at support/PPZ ?
As this is a weekly BUOB whats the lowest timeframe you would drop to for a PA signal ?
Yes, I would drop down to lower time frames.
Preferably the Daily time frame, but the 8 Hour, 4 hour, Hourly or even the 15min if the qualitly of the setup stands out. Meaning big in size, limited traffic, throw in some confluence like divergence, etc.
Looking at the Hourly, a small PB (by proxy) seems to be giving a bit of a bounce, although its pretty small. Enough of a bounce to cover your risk.
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You have no idea how many people actually think like that here. Well, you probably do... and that's the scary part. Every day, there is another news article about how 'housing is different', 'Australia is different', 'China xyz', etc.
Hence: Friday's massively offtopic essay on The Trainwreck that is Australia.
Residential housing here is a HUGE issue politically, even moreso than in the US or UK.
The demographics of Australia come strongly into play. 49% of the population is over 40, and 25% is retired or about to (>55)....
Thanks Joel . .I got most of that, but then again I only read once so far, I plan on reading a few more times. lol.
So I take it the "triple ruh roh" will come sooner rather then later. . .yikes.
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Maybe this is good for new people who like me were or are struggling with PPZ a little.
Oh My......I was just using a naked chart to practice finding PPZ.
I found one, and put a 365 EMA on it.
Look what this single PPZ line shows us across all these time frames.
Keep at them there PPZ folks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Continued from above post.
Strong PPZ levels are thy place to look for strong PA . .it just makes sense.
But I think your charts illustrate the one main thing (well, one of the main things) that Mike talks about alot . . Big Bars . . . and that sucker was big on the 4 hour time frame, and the time frames below it.
Don't get me wrong Pb . .the fact that it developed at a strong PPZ level made the story much more compelling.
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Phew, have I been busy with one thing and another.
Anyway, I have just realized that I have been drawing my PPZ incorrectly, not completely incorrectly but a bit off. I mean, I think I have in many instances been using individual bars rather and stand alone resistance or support, than price flips.
So, I am working on PPZ only as, I figure correct ppz is at least 80% of the battle.
As I was practicing this, I saw this EUR/CAD H4 setup.
Let's see what the market wants to do.
EDIT: Changed charts from black to white.
Hey Pb .. have you checked your Eur/Cad 4 hour chart?
Nice call buddy.
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lol. I meant they get me in trouble in the first place
heh. that's no big achievement
All that stuff is pretty easy, once you get past the basic concepts.
It's just a matter of distilling things down the their essence - sort out which parts are accelerator/gearbox/brakes (and therefore important), and which ones are foglights, radio and aircon (that you can ignore). After that, its just a bunch of nested 'what if' scenarios.
And its all geared towards one thing - trying to determine the drivers behind particular currencies and...
Touch? Joel .. lol
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Maybe, I should take them out and dust them off a bit. LoL
Hmmm, that BEOB would have scared the pants off of me though, with the high just below the 1.4100 and the close below the 1.4000.
RSI is currently making a lower low and price a higher high.
Jarrroo, can we consider this EUR/AUD a PB by proxy?
I realize the close is not very good.
Pb, you said on your chart "maybe a nice retest and some PA" at the 1.4000 PPZ . We have a bullish PB at the new Support once Price broke Resistance (PPZ level).
Now its not the best PB placement, better at a swing low with additional confluence and so on. But its one the core principles of the James16 method in a nutshell.
Does this make sense? . . maybe not the best example . .
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Pb, you said on your chart "maybe a nice retest and some PA" at the 1.4000 PPZ . We have a bullish PB at the new Support once Price broke Resistance (PPZ level).
Now its not the best PB placement, better at a swing low with additional confluence and so on. But its one the core principles of the James16 method in a nutshell.
Does this make sense? . . maybe not the best example . .
Just like this chart.
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This is going to turn into "The James16 retrace thread" soon. lol.
i hope all you new folks remember that if were doing this right were doing it on demo first no matter the method.
i havnt thrown that out for a month or two so there ya go.
Jim
PA at retracement levels are always a better confirmation than just a touch trade. . .allbeit that the PA at that retracement level may happen to be on the 5min chart lol . .just kidding. lol
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Well, not quite.... I ran on demo up until June, now I'm running on a micro. I do still take my hits now and then but it's working out. (+35%)
Plan on running the micro for the next several months, maybe I'll be lucky and just upgrade the micro
(Thanks to all of you!)
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Yes, I would drop down to lower time frames.
Preferably the Daily time frame, but the 8 Hour, 4 hour, Hourly or even the 15min if the qualitly of the setup stands out. Meaning big in size, limited traffic, throw in some confluence like divergence, etc.
Looking at the Hourly, a small PB (by proxy) seems to be giving a bit of a bounce, although its pretty small. Enough of a bounce to cover your risk.
Hey slade did you see this Weekly BUOB Gbp/Jpy retrace?
I little PA confirmation can go a long way. . .to say the least.
20-25 pip SL on a Weekly Gbp/Jpy setup . .how many people would laugh at that senario . .
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I missed the GJ Jarroo, but I am watching the current GU retrace to the 1.5800 area..
It that a retrace of the Daily BEOB?
Here's where the higher time frames rule.
The Weekly BUOB (much like the Gbp/Jpy) . .I'm see a potential run to the 1.6000 BRN . . Price has already retraced to the 1.5700. I may be wrong, of course.
The Hourly had some good PA confirmation.
Edit: gotta go gang later.
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my FXpro demo doesn't show a weekly BUOB, neither does my demo Interbank FX .. which puts a totally different slant on things. Maybe demo feeds are not to be used ?
Can anyone else see a weekly BUOB on GBPUSD on their feed ?
OOooopps. You're right billm. Demo feeds are not that bad, although they can be a bit loose at times.
I guess in my haste I chose to ignore that gap I have on FxPro and did not check other feeds.
Just to save face here billm . . my eyes are so drawn to Support levels turning into Resistance levels (and vice versa) . . .otherwise known as PPZ levels . .that I didn't even notice the Weekly BUOB discrepency, to be honest.
Here's how I saw it . .
The 1.5700 is a Weekly PPZ level and has been acting as strong Resistance as of late. I then saw Price breaking through this level pretty convincingly.
We know that when Price breaks through a strong Resistance level it will then turning into a strong Support level, (most of the time). It is at these turning points that we look for PA for confirmation.
(Charts are FxPro and IBFX feeds)
Sorry about the confusing post.
Jim
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I missed the GJ Jarroo, but I am watching the current GU retrace to the 1.5800 area..
Edit: No PA, pass
Nice slade. . . it really can be as simple as that . . No PA, Pass. . .as long as we know the story behind where we want that PA to form.
The 1.5800 is a Daily PPZ level and Price begins to retrace off the Daily BEOB (pinnish looking, which I like). Since there was no convincing PA at the 1.5800, on many lower time frames, a "Pass on this one" was easy to decide.
This is where a lot of touch traders get into trouble. imo They see a good level with a good story behind it and take it without PA confirmation. That extra part at the end of the story . . .PA . . can make all the difference in the world.
Side Note: . .about the Daily BEOB . .
I would have liked to have seen the swing high of the BEOB a bit higher, up by those Highs in yellow at the 1.6000. Also, a bit of traffic infront of it and sitting on the 1.5700 PPZ level. James16's "This is Critical" in full force.
Jim
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Neither broke...so technically you shouldn't be in either of those trades.
Remember...a PA bar only looks like a PA bar until it's validated bu virtue of a break of the low/high of the bar itself.
Besides...
GBP/USD failed to close below 1.57...I can't even emphasize enough how important the close of a PA bar is specially when you're talking about immediate traffic. Notice all the bar highs that found resistance at 1.57 before price broke up. That difference between the low and the close of the beob speaks for itself when it comes to the "strength...
Great post g. . .
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Hello Huys
The USD/CAD is on the lower end of the range and maybe we could see a breakout or it may just consolidate, or form a pinbar at lower part of the range.
Maybe it could be a good trade for next week. Like to get comments on this from senior members like Mike, Jaroo, Pinbar and many others.( I apologize if I am missing someone)
According to me there is a high likelihood of a continuation of the downtrend. It is like the classic trendline break(which is not there on the following chart), then consolidation and then move in the direction...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Hi, Maarc and welcome to this Great thread.
Yes, you are wrong in as much as PINBAR is not a senior, just an earnest newbie.
I think this area is problematic, in as much as, a weekly bearish PB type bar just closed. It is not a valid bearish PB PA bar but it is a bearish bar by nature of the close. The close is sitting right on the RN. I think the area we are at on the daily with all those lows lining up is a possible flip area in the making. We want to see any bullish PA close above that area on the daily and any bearish PA come off it....
I agree Pb .. .good analysis . . well done. . .
I like your chart of Price breaking out of this consolidation (yellow) and where Support turning into Resistance.
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Thanks Jarroo, just trying to help our on the weekend with not that many people around.
I have been thinking a lot about my former and not so distant, fixation with trying to find an indicator that draws PPZ reasonably well.
And, I have come to the conclusion that it is not possible because of the nature of PPZ. Maybe they can come close but it is really impossible.
Along with this, I have been thinking about the obsession I experienced with this search for the indicator.
Basically, I think it was a responsibility issues, meaning that if...
Believe me, Pb . .the best indicator that can process and interpret information more accurately then any indicator out there is the brain behind your eyes. It just needs to be coded with a little time and practise.
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There is no shortcut, it is a learning curve and while the technical aspects of what you guys are showing is not that hard to get a grip on, seeing the price flips with a definite structure, seems to take time and a lot of eyeballing the charts. I think I am starting to see things a little more clearly in terms of PPz's, than I was a week ago.
Yes you are PB, more then you know.
Which is reflected in this post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
EUR/CHF may be worth keeping an eye on.
Now, we just sit and wait for PA to show us the way.
Now, it seems to be getting a little easier to see what is going on.
Great example of a multiple confluence level. The is a Strong level.
Some nice bearish PA would be perfect.
This one may bring out the Rac-man . . KaBoom . .lol I'm sure he's looking at this one very closely.
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I don't like venturing into this too much because this isn't what the thread is about. But I strongly disagree. The EUR/CHF setup is a PERFECT touch trade setup. Strong down trend, very sharp peaks so tons of traders will have their eye on this. I make a killing from these type of trades day in and day out, and this one is a beauty.
Sell on the touch of the line, 30 pip stop.
Nice Captain . . .well supported touch trade.
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enough to go short?
1)fib at 61
2)fib expand at 138 of previous rally
3)round number
4)resistence
5)middle line fork
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
Mate, ya need to keep your charts a tad cleaner.
The analysis looks sound, though the entry is a matter of style and preference.
PRINCIPLES are what are taught here by Mike & the rest. METHODS are individual and a reflection of your personality. That one, you gotta make your own.
Price action on your TF isn't saying anything just yet though. Unless you're willing to in on a pure level(s) play... but where's your stop and what % will you make if you're right/what will you lose if you're wrong? MM & bet size are part of style/method too......
I have to agree Cyrus, danielga. I may agree with your analysis . .if I could see it.
I'm not trying to be a smart guy here dan, this Thread deals with pure Price Action at great locations. You'll find that cleaning up your chart a bit will make seeing these setups more clearly.
Welcome to the Thread.
Jim
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Thanks Jarroo! Working out well. Thats the beauty of these. Tight stops on the other side of the line allow a large % trade. Normally 6-8% in my case but I am crazy.
Already up 50 pips before PA traders even notice it. Beautiful. Hope some people here got in.
I'm sure many have . . . . .but due to the nature of this thread, waiting for solid PA for confirmation is a more solid approach . . I'm sure you understand.
The one thing I like about these levels is that they are strong on either side of the equation, meaning if Price breaks through and finds Support (in this case) . . .much like this Aud/Cad chart.
Have you found this also to be true, Captain?
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The one thing I like about these levels is that they are strong on either side of the equation, meaning if Price breaks through and finds Support (in this case) . . .much like this Aud/Cad chart.
Have you found this also to be true, Captain?
The Eur/Gbp weekly is another example.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
A quick look at the weekly, supports SC's theory.
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You are correct, PA is always the safe bet, but location is far more important and it's nice to see this often stressed in this thread. The trendlines you have drawn there aren't normally the ones id touch on. I like to play the third clear hit on a line which has big swings off of it like the EUR/CHF posted before. Normally 4 hour or daily time frame. I've attached the CHF/JPY touch trade I played today as well as an example.
But as for your point about the breakout and support, this is very true. I will often play the re-test on a break out.....
Thanks for sharing that Captain, good info.
I use trendlines more as a confluencing tool with PPZ level and BRNs. I found they add strength to these level then just by themselves.
The Aud/Jpy may be a good example of the Aud/Cad chart I posted. Again clear signs of Support (like bullish PA) would be the key. . as well as bearish PA for a short.
No apologies necessary, friend. Do post more . . strong locations are what we look for.
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I was really waiting patiently for a nice PA bar closing below the TL.
Too bad it just took off like that and left us in the middle of no mans' land.
There will be other trades.
We could be heading back to the 133.00, Daily/ Weekly PPZ, indicated be the 4 hour BEOB (FxPro). There is some taffic but maybe the momentum of this PA can take us there . .we shall see.
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My opinion (for what it's worth) on the current EUR/CHF 4Hour opportunity, is that there's too much support in the near term (in the form of horizontal levels and rising trendlines) for me to consider going short
Also I don't really like the shape of the BEOB. If it had a spike higher through 1.35 then I would definitely be interested
Sorry about the messy chart
All valid points Jonny . .
It a tough setup to take . . this is where a hard break and a retest would have to play out if I were to hold this trade. If not as drawn on my chart (red line), I'm out with a break even or small loss. That's if I decide to take it. . . should be fun to watch.
. .messy charts, yeah right . . .lol
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It a tough setup to take . . this is where a hard break and a retest would have to play out if I were to hold this trade. If not as drawn on my chart (red line), I'm out with a break even or small loss. That's if I decide to take it. . . should be fun to watch.
. .messy charts, yeah right . . .lol
How hard was that . . lol
(Notice the timeline)
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Some people are good at going in on a pure level play, but you need lotsa confluence for those.
Personally, at this point, I wait for PA off those levels. Not saying pure level plays are wrong, but they do require more screen time. Do levels + PA enough and see PA form off those levels again & again & again & again & again & again & again & again (you get my point by now. LOL) and then you can go, "what they heck, I think odds are good we might form PA here).
But tt's only abt 30% of the story... your own style and how you play the game...
. . .& again . . .lol
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I would have liked to have told you, Pb. One step at a time. Finding great locations with PA as the trigger is what we do here. Over time you will see these levels develop more clearly.
Understanding the core of the James16 method may lead you to a better understanding of what makes a great touch trade.
Rac will even point this out to you as well. .as he did for me.
Mastering the James16 method, in your own style, is the main part.
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Before entering a trade, I think about my son. I think about his future. I ask myself do I want to do this right, or do I want to screw it all up. Might be an unusual thing to do, but it works for me to get my trading psychology in the right direction.
Anyway, here come the rules:
1. Preferably trade in the direction of the main trend (helps a bunch )
2. Take PA (specific bar) which is formed on important support/resistance (usually Big Round Number) or fib retracement. Don't just shoot blindly at any semi-PA bar.
3. Define your Stop Loss...
No more sophisticated then that, bee. Great post . .
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but what i have trouble is really managing it. what do i do if price reaches 8600? if i move my SL to BE and take half profit off, will i be limiting the space for it to retrace?
The .8600 is the obvious target . .if it reaches there, there is going to be a reaction.
The reaction could be breaking right through it (.8600) and head for the .8500 or bounce back up to the .8700. So you have find your way on how you want to manage it. Moving to break even quickly is not a bad approach, while taking some off the table and let it ride. . .
no problem, sir! i will do just that, experiment on my trade managements. getting out of the trade is the hard part, getting in was just the beginning. i'll be thinking more about managing my trades now. where do i expect price to reach and see what kind price bar do i get when price reaches that area. and whether i will take profit(full) or i think there will be a little more push.
Looks like you're going to learn alot on this one premierpip.
And so will we.
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myfxbook is very safe , it helped him hide the money he deposited....
it's very easy to open an myfxbook account to show everyone where you entry, where you take profit.... and more importantly it help us to know is that guy a profitable trader or only a bragger, a scammer
no way you can forge the evidence, because myfxbook verify your information and it refresh it every 5 m to update
No...
Dude, take this garbage to those other threads, please.
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so if i'm trading into a big number/PPZ i have to be really careful. either i get move my SL to BE as soon as the price is reached, or i place the order only after it has broken the RN/PPA. am i right? but will i be stupid if i'm taking a trade into a RN/PPZ which is 30 pips away? or do i pass it and wait for price to reach these RN/PPZ and look for another PA?
These are all good question, premier. Me personally would be to manage it tightly. As Mike has said, and I agree, that the trend looks really strong and this bearish move may just be a small retrace to a larger move upward.
Let's look at the setup a bit closer. Notice the PPZ level that's in the BEOB. Classic Res turning into Sup . .now Price broke through this level again . . Sup turning into Res. . . is this now Res?? A tight stop loss above this level looks good.
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okay. so i have to be really careful with the minor PPZ, because when price breaks the old supports, it will most likely becomes resistance. and in today's scenario, if price breaks the resistance again, it will use that level as support. which means support will push the price up. so if my trade is triggered and it went back as support, i know that the price will be going up with that level as support. it will reach my SL soon. so if it breaks, i might be better off cutting my lose. right?
Right!! Excellent! Also true at the .8600
And what that tells me is that the uptrend is really strong and we will continue to the moon.
Also the .8575.
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Proxy is using another bar as our 'left eye', when price is not contained within the previous bar
Example
The check mark is our proxy bar. The arrow is our pinbar. Notice it is not a traditional pin that has open and close within the prior bar. Instead it has a close within the proxy bar
Best
Mike
Thanks Mike
Here's another.
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Perhaps we should not let the EUR/CHF trade yesterday influence us in the EG setup.
I mean, look at the strong PPZ just 20 pips below the EP, could this be a retrace in this recent rally upwards?
Monthly bar looks rather authoritative and the weekly chart shows 3 consecutive bullish bars, I believe I read on the PF that 3 high TF bars in a row is an actual PA setup in itself.
I am not convinced somehow, maybe I should be, we shall see.
Demo it Pb . .let's see what happens . .remember to wait for the break with a buffer.
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would you have played this one since the retrace was not on the 1st bar after the BEOB?
Sure . .actually since the BEOB (BEOB by 2 pips more like a DBHLC) broke and hit its target gave more reason that the retrace would occurr. You'll notice this on many setups where the setup will hit its target then retrace to the break and/or a confluenced level.
In this case, to a confluenced PPZ level, .9550.
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I have been following this thread a lot more closely over the past few weeks to really try and understand the concepts being taught here. I like simplicity and was drawn to ideas being discussed in the earlier pages. I feel I know what the helpful people are trying to achieve.
However the more I follow the more I am not certain what the core rules are?!
For example, we are being told to look at price action around key areas. Key areas feel like every point on the chart - Big Round Numbers, 50 or 61.8 Fib, Horizontal or Diagonal Trend Lines,...
From my point of view . if you can understand this chart below . . where Support turns into Resistance once Price breaks through it (and vice versa) and using PA . .either bullish (at Support) or bearish (at Resistance) . . you're ahead of the game. It's a good starting point . .imo
Jim
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Am I right in thinking that you would have taken the break of the BEOB as your first entry and covered at the FTA then waited for a pullback and entered again for a 2nd short targeting the same FTA ?
Yes, that's a possibility, if the consolidation area was more clearly defined. This one was a bit choppy.
But it would more like closing out the whole position at the FTA on the first entry. Then re-entering again for a 2nd entry at that confluenced level.
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I am watching it but, leaning towards this being a fake out.
I know there is a lot of confluence & bar size is good but I don't like how this BEOB broke the 0.8700 and came off of the 0.8735. I think the location is odd.
Let's see.
I agree Pb . .the uptrend on this pair looks real strong.
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The location is odd, the previous bullish bars are bigger than that BEOB and last but not least, this BEOB is trading right into the weekly pivot, I know, we don't trade into weekly PPZ with a daily substandard bar.
I am laughing as I type this because, a week ago, that bar would have been the bees knees, now I am saying it is substandard. LOL
I like the location . .at a swing High (Space), off weekly PPZ level, .8700, multi-fib confluence and even a bit of divergence. Size of the bar is not that bad.
Yes . I'm really big on this setup. But it sure is showing its upward strength, meaning it hasn't broke hard yet . .just a bit . .probably because of the time of day. I like its odds of it hitting the FTA, .8600. if not the uptrend is strong.
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I like the location . .at a swing High, off weekly PPZ level, .8700, multi-fib confluence and even a bit of divergence. Size of the bar is not that bad.
Yes . I'm really big on this setup. But it sure is showing its upward strength, meaning it hasn't broke hard yet . .just a bit . .probably because of the time of day. I like its odds of it hitting the FTA, .8600. if not the uptrend is strong.
I like to see how it reacts to the .8700, if it gets there.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
4 pips. I know it's below the std/min 10 pips for Daily but I reckon to have more pips to gain before reaching the FTA of 1.86.
A bad decision it may turn out.....................
If we were in the London session, I can see a smaller buffer . .but in the Asian session . .with this pair . .I would use a bigger buffer just to see if the volatility was present . . make sense?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
It does Jaroo.
Sometimes you 'hope' 4 pips is enough but I guess it is better to be safe (safe could mean moving managing it tightly when FTA is reached) than to be sorry.
Its one thing that I've learned from James16 and Mike (and myself) being aware of the time of day, meaning being in where the action is or volatility is . .London and New York.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.