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  #75205  
Old Sep 21, 2010 12:05am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phpscott View Post
Maybe I need to see a shrink about bars on charts speaking to me?
Or, if they keep speaking to you, a good tax accountant
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  #75313  
Old Sep 22, 2010 9:47am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dabbledave View Post
I also love the concept of applying Fib numbers in trading and investment, because they apply to so many things in the natural world. Whichever way my trading method/plan evolves, I'm sure those golden ratios will integral.
I'd be cautious about putting too much stock in magic numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
For me it's a worry as we can never be sure what kind orderflow exist in areas where price has never been. Maybe there are huge buy or sell orders sitting right around 1.6150. As we cannot know it makes trading into fresh new ground a bit to much of a gamble in my opinion. (and its also very difficult to define a target)
There could be huge orders anywhere and everywhere

Everytime you hit a new low, you are going to get people fading that low. Its pretty standard. But the fact that you are making a new low means that there is a ton of downward pressure (or a lack of upside pressure), so it's usually a pretty good area to watch for setups.

breakout/retrace/retest lows is usually pretty reliable, in my experience.
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  #75318  
Old Sep 22, 2010 10:46am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
True But would it be correct to say there would be a large buildup of orders levels where price has not been for some time? For example, if a market made a new low in 2005, and then started to approach that low again in 2010. All the orders (the ones that are still in place) under that low in the last 5 years would be triggered if the new low is made, and this would lead to some extreme (perhaps unpredictable) price movements?

Trying to educate myself
How many orders would you leave sitting there for five years? I daresay my positions would have been converted to booze, cars or women by then

You'll find stops clustered under pretty much every significant low, just cause its a sensible place to put them - it's a pretty definitive indication that you were wrong and your long position isnt working out the way you planned. Or if things are going your way, you shift your stops up the the next significant dip. But those are going to be sell orders - it would be pretty terrible trade management to hold a losing short for 5 years, hoping it will come back to zero

You might sometimes find it is a level of fundamental significance, so you could see some real orders come in once price gets there. The kind of stuff that changes trends (or at very least starts the dumb money -> smart money consolidation). In fx, maybe not as much. But definitely in equities, that's ValueTown (population: Buffett, and hopefully me).

As I said, fading new lows is a pretty common move, so if price makes a new low, you can usually expect some kind of retracement. And, obviously, its going to see some profit taking But not a trend changing one (unless a CB or the aforementioned macro-money gets involved). Obviously, that is going to add some additional risk to a straight breakout (which is why mike-style break/retrace/boom trades are almost always better). Usually, though, you shouldnt see an extreme reaction - any buying spike is usually going straight into a bunch of people looking to get short, and they are going to be more than happy to absorb the bids.

The fact that you are making new lows means that there is more selling than buying. So, generally speaking, being on the selling team is good; being on the buying team is like playing for Derby/St Louis/Melbourne (delete as appropriate).

I guess what I am saying, in typical roundabout fashion, is that you shouldnt be scared of space - there might be a few aliens floating around here and there, but most of it is empty
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Last edited by joelcf, Sep 22, 2010 10:57am
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  #75609  
Old Sep 26, 2010 10:36pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
more stock charts!
Anyone thinking about expanding into equities should be looking at large, liquid stocks - not thinly traded microcaps (which LCRD only just sneaks into, it's practically a nanocap).

52k turnover on a $4 stock? When *I* can do the average daily turnover, you are just begging for someone to toy with you.

Stick with midcaps or larger ($2bn+) or an average daily turnover of at least 1% or 1m. Or preferably both. The back of my envelope scrawlings say that should leave you with at least ~200 on the nas, 490ish on the nyse and 99 of the ftse100 (and at least the ASX50, if you get really bored). Pretty sure that's plenty of charts to look at
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  #75612  
Old Sep 26, 2010 11:21pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Yeah that fits well into my mental picture of "Joel"
Margin accounts and tight stops
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  #75616  
Old Sep 27, 2010 12:48am
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Originally Posted by albinas View Post
Hello everyone!

I feel it's time for me to join those who post here
Welcome

Quote:
Originally Posted by albinas View Post
Here goes a gold chart. It seems we got all time hight and a BRN of 1300. Great resistance, and also a place to look for PA.
Great resistance at an all time high? Hm.
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  #75623  
Old Sep 27, 2010 2:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by albinas View Post
Isn't it so, Joelcf? As I know places where price goes for the first time act as support/resistence.
Why do we think that?

(not saying you are wrong or right. just trying to drill down to your reasoning - this has come up a few times, and its an interesting discussion)

Quote:
Originally Posted by albinas View Post
And here we also have a BRN which also should act as resistance.
Is $1300 a 'BRN' in relation to gold - ie, will price 'respect' the level? If so, $1200 and $1100 are too.

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Last edited by joelcf, Sep 27, 2010 2:25am Reason: ugh. typing.
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  #75625  
Old Sep 27, 2010 4:07am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Love your wit mate.

High ho SILVER though
Clear short.

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21.00 is a Fibbonacci number, plus we are at a new high so that's double resistance. And with the SNB declaring that they no longer see the immediate need for intervention, their export sector will likely suffer and so Patek and Rolex wont be needing as much silver. Plus, it's the 24th anniversary of Cliff Burton's death.

Clear bearish pressure.


(I do believe silver is overbought, but for very different reasons)
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  #75635  
Old Sep 27, 2010 6:53am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I certainly would not share my bank statement with anyone under any circumstances.
As a rule, I try to send out my bank statement, trading account details and tax return to every west African on the internet who demands it.

I mean, what could possibly go wrong? The King of Nigeria himself asked me just this morning (!)
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  #75646  
Old Sep 27, 2010 8:10am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
i have been deleting what i wrote simply bcos i dnt know how to approach what u just said in best of ways .....
maybe im misreading it or something but ....... inshort im sorry let me just keep it to myself

u find retards in asia, the states, uk etc but that doesnt mean u shld generalize it to the whole of that region or whatever.
I think you may have misinterpreted my intent.

That region of the world, particularly Nigeria, has quite a reputation in the western world for being the source of a large proportion of fraudulent emails and scams. You may have heard of 'the nigerian advance fee scam', 'lads from lagos' or 'yahoo-yahoo boyz'? As a result, most people would be very unwilling to provide any kind of personal, financial or account details to an internet poster from western Africa.

No offence was intended, and I wasnt trying to generalise about the intelect of people from that region.

And I could be wrong, but I dont think 'Nigeria' as a region has had a king for almost a hundred years now

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
With that said, after you post your financial statements, would it be to much trouble to ask you to post some pictures here of your hard assets, such as home(s), cars, jewelry, etc.
I'd be happy to - but the mailbox sign out front with my full address is partially blocking the view, the lock on the back door is broken which might ruin the shot of the secluded courtyard (where one could work all day without neighbours noticing), and with work and everything I am out of the house between 7.30am and 7.30pm every day...so I wont have time to photoshop them out - is that okay?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
P.S. Pics of the wife and/or girlfriends/liasons would probably may also lend credence to your profitability
Hm.. My fiancee hates her because she takes up so much of my free time, but here is one of my sexy mistress.

She is a bit temperamental, can be bipolar and erratic at times, but most of the time she is very well behaved.

Click image for larger version

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And while she can be expensive... when she puts out, it is totally worth it
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Last edited by joelcf, Sep 27, 2010 8:40am
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