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  #81055  
Old Nov 28, 2010 5:58pm
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Hey Dave

My answers below in bold

Quote:
Hi Gang,

Generally, I think that J16 teaches us to put our initial stop just above or below the PA bar that we are playing. So, for example, if I'm taking a pin bar short, my initial stop would go just above the high of that bar.
Yes this is considered the traditional way, but is by no means the only way. Like all things that we do you will see variations dependent upon trader and style. It is the beauty and the beast of it. You can have your own style but it is daunting b/c most don't know what they should do. So start somewhere and I think the traditional way is a good starting place.

Quote:
On the other hand, I've frequently read in this thread that folks don't (or rarely) take full bar losses (which I assume means allowing price to retrace all the way from the entry point to the initial stop). I find this a little confusing. If we're not going to take full bar losses, why put the initial stop a full bar away?
I do this b/c then as I move my stop down it is my way to eliminate risk. I use that room b/c if I started with my stop lower now I have less room to move my stop and elimate that risk. So the advantage for me is the ability to begin to reduce risk thus reduce full losses. The disadvantage is of course a smaller position size. There is and will always be a trade off in anything you do in trading.

Quote:
I understand that putting the initial stop above the PA bar gives the trade room to "breathe", and if price in fact does retrace all the way to the far end of the bar that is a very clear indication that the initial analysis was wrong. But at what point before a full bar loss happens does one move the stop closer, assuming that the trade is going against one?
I couldn't give you a blanketed statement. Every trade/situation is its own and I simply make what I believe are the best decisions at the time. Here is a very general post on how I personally go about things just to give you some ideas. This is where time spent learning/refining/studying/backtesting can not be fast tracked
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...an#post2853922


Quote:
If the trade is going in my favor, then moving stops as PPZs are hit (to BE or to protect profit) seems very logical. But suppose I short that pinbar; price then rises to the 38.2 retrace of the pinbar; would most folks exit there? At the 50? At the 68.2? Or is it based on one's money management rules: exit when .5%, 1%, 2% of account is lost, no matter where this happens to fall on the pinbar? And if I use a clear rule like this (fibos or MM rules, that is), why put the initial stop a full bar away at all?
I think my above answers my feelings on this. I start with my stop above/below the bar, and my risk is based on that stop to start. For me this is 2%. It doesn't mean I either lose 2% . If I move my stop down it reduces that risk if I leave it that risk remains. So again situational for me. Others may be all or none. Best to start to track what feels comfortable and works for you. This can take months to more then likely years like it has for most of us.

Quote:
I find this to be the most confusing aspect of trading; in my initial demoing I frequently took full bar losses. In fact, most of my demo losses have been full bar losses, since I never knew when to close the trade before that initial stop was hit. Is this an example of the old trap of saying "It's got to turn around soon!", as the account size dwindles off into the distance?
Yes all the moving pieces together is ultimately what makes us fail or succeed. Trade mgmt is crucial, entries are crucial, it is all crucial. Start to experiment and track different methods and collect good data so that 6-12 months down the line you have something more concrete to analyze. It just gets easier with time and repetition/practice

Hope this helps and again these are only my views
Mike

--Dave[/quote]
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  #81056  
Old Nov 28, 2010 6:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Will the 1.0000 act as Support since Price broke through Resistance and closed above on the Weekly Usd/Chf? Bullish PA at the 1.0000 would be a good confirmation. We shall see.
yummy area
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  #81105  
Old Nov 29, 2010 10:54am
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Originally Posted by bluetrader View Post
Hi Geo,

I agree with Atc on this... but just sticking to the same timeframe. I highlighted the FTA on the chart (I know it's in hindsight, but do you see where price reacted to the .8515 level?). The key point with passing on this trade for me would have been the close. On this BUOB, the close only engulfed 1 bar and price failed to close above the BIG round number .8500

An additional weaknesses to the setup would also be a weak bar size.

I'm not saying this to beat you up Geo, we are all trying to learn here. Avoiding tricky setups like these...
BIngo. Well done danny.
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  #81114  
Old Nov 29, 2010 2:27pm
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Originally Posted by lallous View Post
Hello everyone,

I managed to document a trade I decided to enter today on the Eur/Usd.
I would love to hear from everyone.
Please go easy on me




Hey Lallous

I think this was a nice solid analysis but still keeping things simple enough. How have you managed your trade, or plan to?

Best
Mike
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  #81120  
Old Nov 29, 2010 3:04pm
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Originally Posted by lallous View Post
Hello Mike,

I entered the trade at the break of the 4 hour candle as depicted in the 4 hour chart. My SL was at the 1.33 BRN and take profit at the FTA which is around the 1.31 zone.
Can you please share how you would do it?
perfect my friend , that is how I saw it too, the major trouble being 1.3 but 1.31 being where to watch off yours being a continuation play
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  #81122  
Old Nov 29, 2010 3:11pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
Was the PA signal the Inside bar or the BEOB?
The Beob which would also be selling a break of the new low, is the best. I wouldn't be trading 4hr IBs personally. But the BEOB makes the most sense alongside with Lallous analysis

Best
Mike
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  #81126  
Old Nov 29, 2010 4:32pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Interesting, don't you think?

Or still too risky? I only see that the close is kinda above that level 11050.. the close below would be stronger. Any thoughts?
Hey Adi

I think coming off that HUGE bullish bar with such a weak close is a dead no-no how I play things. Remember bar = small part of this

Always ask yourself the story that way when we get in our reasons are very clear and then we can follow through with the trade plan.

Best
Mike
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  #81134  
Old Nov 29, 2010 5:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geomink View Post
stopped out!!!!

as usual!!!!


:-))))))))))))))
Geo did you read Dannys post under yours? There were some very important points. I know this is frustrating but we only learn this way

Take care
Mike
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  #81135  
Old Nov 29, 2010 5:13pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I was looking to do a followup on this Daily BUOB on the Eur/Gbp but you expressed it perfectly, Danny. Price could not find Support at the .8500-8450 levels, to say the least.

Currently, Price looks to close below the .8450 on the Daily as BEOB continuation play. I would look for the .8450 to act as Resistance.
I had this on the watch list from earlier in the day. But I needed a close under the previous swing there to consider it personally.

8500 has been a fun area though

Mike
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  #81137  
Old Nov 29, 2010 5:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Did you see my Daily wedge on the Daily Eur/Gbp? . . .too much form fitting there?
Yeah a bit for me Jim. Not that I don't agree we are wedging up cause we are. But to pull the trigger on. I still actually think that the area is good enough that if it closed down below the lows, price has no where to go in this situation.

Just my way of being picky of course :P

Mike
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  #81146  
Old Nov 29, 2010 8:04pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Hello Joel, then I just have a simple question. Why are we here? Learning with FX and then progress to Futures, that would be the right thing to do, or what would you suggest?

I heard same things about FX in general before..I started in futures, options, stocks, bonds all but never Forex (because people say it's broker's way to rob you)... I found this thread, and only because I found this thread I am interested in Forex now..I thought there are some really serious people here, who really can make some consitent profit with forex and it...
FX, Futures, Stocks, poker, rock paper scissors, etc etc those are all simply vehicles in which to perform whatever action the user is looking to perform. Not one is easier then the other. Some people hop from one to another thinking that it must be the market. You simply need an edge and the ability to execute that edge.

What joel is referring to is that most people come to FX b/c of the ability to open up a small account with their extra money, then that ability to control much more money (leverage) then they should be. The get rich quick thing we hear. It is at the end of the day the ability to treat trading as the business it should be. So that either one day you can trade for profits, or that you don't lose your shirt going for it all. If it is the way you choose to do it, and that you(I use you meaning anyone) want to try to turn your thousand dollar account to a million. Then well you will become a statistic. For the few that get very lucky their are too many more. Better off playing the lotto.

Every vehicle has business that operate in a poor way. FX is a bit more uncharted territory but is slowly getting cleaned up. Again it comes to the end user to protect themselves and trade with someone they trust. When a fly by night broker opens up in some random unregulated country and people complain when they do shady things, who is really to blame? Both parties.

So what can you do? Take responsibility for where you place your money and how you trade your money. Due diligence is something that is in ones control. Of course many of us have been through the grinder and this is why we are here(but it never should be the full substitute for ones own research and diligence). To help those that come after us not feel so lost and hopeless. The amount of horror stories that run the log of problems(mostly bad traders blowing their money b/c of lack of education and false dreams) is very scary.

Hope that helps a bit
Mike
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  #81194  
Old Nov 30, 2010 10:20am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
I think I know the answer to this but would this Beob be a pass? It is at a swing high and at a strong PPZ, but the bar itself is not ideal. It would be better if larger and had a stronger bearish close.
Hey Spookie

That is actually a neutral bar since the open and close sit in the middle of the bar. Indicating indecision. Gbp/nzd real tough pair to trade 4hr and lower from my experience. Less liquid causing more tails all over the place

Best
Mike
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  #81196  
Old Nov 30, 2010 10:36am
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Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
Hi MIKE

In many of your posts, you took a pinbar at swing high/low. Sometimes even against the trend. However, i can not understand the reason you took those pinbar apart from the bar itself -this is one of your posts from way back (first pic)

The only pinbar(or any other PA) that i know how to trade is a pinbar formed off a PPZ and has confluence (second pic)

Do you care to explain a bit more?
Thanks
Hey BC

The aud/usd would be a weekly pinbar with strong divergence and coming off the 9500 area. Doesn't look like this one triggered so no trade in the end. The euro usd would be strong pin with the trend(notice huge move down and pullback). These pins I won't take as much anymore as I have honed in my intraday trading and gotten more picky over time. This is why you will often see me pass on many decent setups. They work, but they also increase variance which has been what has turned me into a more conservative picky trader. Playing for the drawdowns instead of how much can I pull a year.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #81210  
Old Nov 30, 2010 2:25pm
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Originally Posted by decentchap View Post
Hi Guys, Is it time to be long on GBP/USD? pin bar in process on daily at brn and ppz
Hey Decentchap

Be careful with these. That bar is very small in relation to the strong bearish bars. Price hit the BRN of 1.55 and has "stalled" this is forming what looks like a pin by definition but the size would have me thinking of it as a small stall rather then true buying. These often do make the FTA(previous bar high) but will get quickly run back over by the sheer momentum of the downside

Best
Mike
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  #81211  
Old Nov 30, 2010 2:26pm
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Originally Posted by bud_fox View Post
Hello all,

Firstly I'd like to thank everyone who has and who continues to contribute to this wonderful thread. I have learn't so much from reading your posts and studying your charts and thought it was about time I expressed my sincere thanks to you all.

I have been demo trading PA for the last 3 months with mixed results. I am a man of patience and don't mind if it takes me another 12 months before I feel confident and happy enough to trade a live account with my hard earned money. I am here to learn no matter how long it takes.

One area that...
Wlecome Conrad

Glad you have been getting along well thus far

I like to always find a round number that the PPZ is close to but I still almost always think of that area as a "zone". This is why you will see us use blue boxes. So they might be around the round number of 1.6200 but that is still a "zone". The zone usually gets smaller the more minor a PPZ flip may be(since we have different degrees of PPZs).

Let me know if you have more questions about that
Mike
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  #81212  
Old Nov 30, 2010 2:28pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
is it just G/N on the 4hr tough or all the XXX/NZD pairs?
Yea a lot of them are spookie

Eur/nzd
aud/nzd
gbp/nzd

those are choppy on the smaller timeframes. I will trade them if the situation is right but I find them much easier the higher you go to smooth things out a bit. You can see that chop if you keep charts at a nice zoom level(for me)

Best
Mike
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  #81225  
Old Nov 30, 2010 4:53pm
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Originally Posted by bud_fox View Post
Mike thank you very much for your reply.

So if I highlight a flip around 1.6200 how many pips either side would I include in the zone?

Conrad
Hey Conrad

It would depend on the look. If you have a more specific area/chart we can look at it for a better example

Best
Mike
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  #81235  
Old Nov 30, 2010 7:44pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
nice looking BEOB, but is there any confluence? Where would you put a SL on this monster?
not much confluence just a big BEOB in a sideways market. If it was played it could be played like any other bar(that is to say if it is worth playing).

Where is price likely to go with such a traffic bar
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  #81236  
Old Nov 30, 2010 7:45pm
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Originally Posted by menomoo View Post
What would you make of this Monthly Pinbar ....? All comments welcome.!
Not the biggest bar, pretty clear FTA at 1150 though

Mike
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  #81237  
Old Nov 30, 2010 7:46pm
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Originally Posted by sebohsj View Post
Hi,

Long time reader of this thread, first time poster. I believe that my first visit here was back in mid 2006 when there were about 60-70 pages. Now there are more than 5000!! Great achievement! I regard this information as priceless, and I sincerely thank all the contributors over the years.

I would like to thank a few people whom have really made a difference to my trading career. James16 (first and foremost), thank you kindly for sharing your knowledge and devoting your time to this thread. Without you, this thread would not even exist and...
Awesome sebohsj ! and hope to see you stopping by more!

Best
Mike
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  #81238  
Old Nov 30, 2010 7:46pm
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Originally Posted by bud_fox View Post
Mike,

l will select an example and attach it tomorrow as I currently dont have access to my pc until then.

Bed time for me now here in Ireland.

Until tomorrow.

Conrad
Will be on the look out for it Conrad
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  #81241  
Old Nov 30, 2010 8:40pm
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Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
Does it mean PinBar is NOT to be played at swing high/low unless it is off PPZ and has confluence?

Thanks for your reply. Really appreciate it
Hey BC

Nope this is not the case. Confluence and reasons to get into trades can be all kinds of reasons. Just a bar alone can be enough sometimes. Sometimes you have just a bar at a swing high with divergence. There is not one specific list for me. Each situation I evaluate interdependently before making the judgment call to trade. It's all about developing your criteria and the bars for me are just a small piece to the larger puzzle. Each puzzle doesn't look like the last.

Best
Mike
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  #81246  
Old Nov 30, 2010 10:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
Mike, could you give an example of situation when just a bar alone at swing high is enough to take the trade? You had me confused -i thought you said you never trade that kinda bar anymore ?
sue BC

I am open to any/all situations If I think it's a high probability spot I am all for it

Here is just a huge beob at a swing high not much else to say about it

Best
Mike
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  #81253  
Old Dec 1, 2010 12:22am
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Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
So if it's a huge PA bar compared to previous bars being at swing high/low it is ?????k to trade by itself without any other confluence factor. Am I right?
That is confluence in my eyes , Momentum change, bar size, Space etc Confluence is just multiple factors. Factors are what we define as the trader(which varies)

Mike
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  #81323  
Old Dec 1, 2010 10:39am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I'm starting to think those small poodle PB at the end of a big move (in this case a bullish PB) as a sell signal . .lol . . be it at the low of the poodle or at its small target, if one is there.

But the 1.5500 BRN PPZ level will get some respect.
Yeah there are a few different phenomenons that I see over and over again around these BRNs after watching them so long. Love it

Look where price went no surprises right guys?

Mike
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  #81324  
Old Dec 1, 2010 10:40am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I couldn't help myself . . .I had to show her again . . Nov. 2007 Weekly PB.
I was going to put that one up but was looking at a chart with someone so I through the future up
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  #81325  
Old Dec 1, 2010 10:43am
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Originally Posted by 666Doom View Post
Hey Mike and Jarroo,

Did you notice anything not so good about this pinbar.
Just confirming if i am thinking right.

1. It did not retrace till left eye,so my order did not got triggered.
2. It almost was 10 hours since i place my order so i canceled it,may be no euro session.

So my question without any doubt i know this was not having much room to go,but if it would have retraced till the left eye it was good.
Good for 100 Pips.
My reasons for it being good were plenty.
Fibs and Monthly PPZ
And BRN.
What do you say was it good enough for Pinbar,again...

Since I haven't updated the guest section in ages for you guys here was a clip on my thoughts for this from my webinar yesterday

Went and has done exactly what we expected

I have no idea how long these files stay uploaded
http://www.mediafire.com/?v1kfuabp43040tn

Best
Mike
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  #81327  
Old Dec 1, 2010 11:00am
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Originally Posted by geomink View Post
daily beob trend continuation on ppz
Hey Geo

This one was well off into profit what was your trade plan once in? Look at the support it was on. It was up quite a bit before the bounce here.
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  #81329  
Old Dec 1, 2010 11:01am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
I think it was against really strong PPZ. No room to move.
whoops didn't even see this post

You are getting good there Adi
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  #81335  
Old Dec 1, 2010 11:42am
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Originally Posted by benji533 View Post
Loooooong time............Where is Mikeee

here's a chart for him
What's up Benji my brotha
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  #81360  
Old Dec 1, 2010 7:03pm
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Originally Posted by fxgroup View Post
Hi all,first time posting !I like nzdusd's story.
Hey FXgroup welcome to the thread

My view on this one is a bit iffy. The main things that would keep me out would be as follows. Again this is just based on how I do things

-Could not close above the BRN of 8500 ....this is very key for me
-Would have liked to see a more exact matching lows or even better a BUOB, a bit off here for me
-The strong down move and size of this bar in comparison to the recent bearish strength

Again welcome to the thread, and this is not to dissuade you just giving my view point

Mike
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  #81450  
Old Dec 2, 2010 10:34am
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Originally Posted by geomink View Post
the loss is growin

:-))))
Hey Geo

You keep posting about this and a bunch of us have posted charts(last time too). Did you miss them, I know this thread moves quick but we are here to help and haven't seen if you saw any of them yet.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=81327

Best
Mike
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  #81453  
Old Dec 2, 2010 10:35am
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
That is like I thought. Bar looked good to me, but the location is really scary. There are too much resistance just above the price. I believe all that zone is resistance... here are the charts
I agree bud, this one was trading in an overall consolidated choppy market and also a current box as well

THey can be much more trouble and often choppy whichever way they choose to go

Mike
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  #81463  
Old Dec 2, 2010 11:17am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Now I see why that stop was ultra tight. Well trying to reduce stop size to increase your position size is a BAD idea even with an A+ setup. A lot of times such a thought process gets triggered when you wonder "Ok here we are, with a 140 pip stop and the FTA 30 pips away, let me cut this down to 60 pips so I can at least get hooked up with a 0.5R runner - and hey this setup looks good to shoot for the moon anyways"


g.

Just to clarify a bit here G if I may cause some will be confused. It is ok to have a reduced stop to get a larger position size if it fits into what you do(not just willy nilly like G said). Many traders start with their stop much higher then under the bar with the understanding of the drawbacks and advantages.

There are trade offs in everything we do as traders. We have to accept them within our methods

Best
Mike
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  #81479  
Old Dec 2, 2010 4:36pm
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Originally Posted by bud_fox View Post
Mike,

Sorry haven't posted example of ppz as we discussed. Will definitely post it over the weekend & maybe we can discuss then.

thanks
Conrad
No worries Conrad, I am always around and lurking, or not far
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  #81486  
Old Dec 2, 2010 7:27pm
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Just a couple of thoughts/rambles---- I meant to mention this earlier when responding to Spookie I think it was....we all have heard that this can be a real head game at times questioning should I enter this setup, where is my stop to be placed, where is the FTA's, position size, time of day, when to move my stop,etc., etc.....I don't know if this may help anyone, but I say to myself....and I know when you first begin it is often difficult since many of us come here with blown accounts and a paranoia of entering in fear of blowing another account....
fantastic post Bill

Enjoy your vacation and we will be here doing what we do when you get back!

Thanks for sharing
Mike
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  #81506  
Old Dec 3, 2010 12:51am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey Bill.

If that was just a bit bigger and/or at the 1.3425, which was a previous Daily Support level, 61.80 fib, 150 ema, . . I would have been all over it.

It had a nice hard break . .if I were to take it . .it better break like this or I'm out. I find its better to wait for my location . . .which I'm sure you agree.
I thought I missed this bar, and just was about to go looking through my charts to kick myself
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  #81508  
Old Dec 3, 2010 1:00am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I made sure I showed the dots . . lol
my friday brain is in full mush effect.
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  #81534  
Old Dec 3, 2010 9:54am
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Originally Posted by Widget View Post
I'm on day 2 of demo trading (yay, negative already!).

I had a question on moving stops to break-even, and taking some profits...

If I can only trade 1-2 hrs a day, should I place multiple orders to get an automated effect?

ex.
Current: 1.0080 and first price target: 1.0200
order 1 = Buy Stop: 1.0100 + SL: 1.0050 (N units)
order 2 = Sell Limit: 1.0200 (N units)
order 3 = Buy Stop: 1.0200 + SL: 1.0100 (N/2 units)

Also, would I need to overlap the levels a few pips to account for spread or delayed execution/slippage?
Hey Widget

You can it will depend on the platform you are using and what your intentions are.

If you know the areas you want to go to b/e at I think either using an automated program to move it, or setting an alert then moving to b/e are the best options. Doing it the above way you are going to be paying the spread/commissions 3 times and also run the risk of execution/slippage. Not that that is a huge issue but it is added costs for positions you are already in.

Have a nice weekend
Mike
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  #81536  
Old Dec 3, 2010 9:58am
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
Doesn?t looks good for me :-(
Anyone with me?
Hey John

I love your marked area and think we will see down there. As spookie said the 9500 it is right into also. But remember we want the BEOB at a swing high there. It would have been a better play for the 2 week pinbar(combined bars) then the beob at a swing low. These are the problems with continuations without the proper support to them. Now if that engulfed 4-5 bars it would be a different story, but just the one bar would have me aside, personally of course

Have a great weekend
Mike
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  #81537  
Old Dec 3, 2010 9:59am
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Originally Posted by 666Doom View Post
Hey Mike,
I missed reading some more basic J 16 terms what is:

Monday Brain:
Friday Brain:
Mush Effect:



Anyways Mike just wanted to say that once i saw your post
You are great.


Please don't hit me.

Regards
Taz
lolol I think I termed a lot of those. My brain doesn't function that well 30% of the time at least

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  #81549  
Old Dec 3, 2010 11:37am
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Hi Mike, James, Jaroo and all just thought I'd pop in and say hi. Hope all are doing well
Nick what's up brotha
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  #81552  
Old Dec 3, 2010 1:18pm
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Originally Posted by simondav View Post
Hi everybody

There was an ea called the james16 EA I believe which was posted on here a few months back. Does anybody have a link to it as a search just brings up hundreds of pages of noise.

Thx in advance

Simon
Hey Simon

Are you referring to the management EA? I believe it is this

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2010%2012:37pm

If you click the little paper clip icon next to the name of the thread on the commercial main page. Then click hide images you can see all the indicators/EAs and what not. I grabbed it from there

Best
Mike
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  #81553  
Old Dec 3, 2010 1:22pm
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Originally Posted by Oldice View Post
Hey gang,

Just thought I'd update folks on this trade....
Hey Dave

THis one isn't a BEOB since it doesn't have a higher high then the previous bar but it could be looked at as a 2day pinbar(combine the 2 bars taking the open from the first and close from second and use the highest point as your high, lowerst point as your low). So it was at a nice swing point, room to run and some good fib confluence. I think you played it very well coming off the recent strength.

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  #81568  
Old Dec 3, 2010 4:44pm
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Originally Posted by cprao View Post
I am also looking at this PB but the Monthly BEOB is not really good sign here.

It is not triggerred yet.. but it is still valid since the high is not broken yet....
Hey C

I like to analyze the one timeframe by itself. Both the monthly and weekly would be showing exactly what you can see on each timeframe by itself. A rather choppy market. The weekly pin could run up to say 1.35or a bit higher, drop back down and trigger the monthly beob. Overall choppy market conditions mean the FTA have a larger effect. So irregardless of anything else the action is already there on the specific chart we are looking at and we can define our trades like that. Others prefer a multi timeframe analysis but for me that always made me over analyze.

It's what works for the trader
Mike
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  #81614  
Old Dec 4, 2010 10:15am
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Originally Posted by lallous View Post
Hi Ghous,

When we refer to more space do you mean what I colored in the attached picture?



Thanks

Hey Lallous

I think that is a good representation of space and you will be far ahead with understanding that alone . That is part of how I do it at least. But space and FTA are two difference concepts. But of course they have some overlap. I did a video that some found useful

I have re-uploaded it

http://www.mediafire.com/?prjqndc567ygtud

Best
Mike
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  #81617  
Old Dec 4, 2010 11:01am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Damn! I admire your ability to get things across as simply and succinctly as you do. :

g.
G you have that talent bud and you probably don't even know it. Your posts were great and I didn't want to take away from them or anyone else. Just adding my thoughts to your great posts too bud!

Best
Mike
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  #81634  
Old Dec 5, 2010 11:39am
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Originally Posted by OneLove View Post
Hey everyone,

With all the recent talk about weekly PB's, I thought I'll post a chart as well...

EUR/CAD Weekly Pinbar off 1.34 RN and 50% ret.
I'm targeting 1.37

any thoughts about this?


P.S. Awesome thread and the helpful people involved! The short while that I'v been aroundhere, I'v learnt a lot. Looking forward to contributing to this thread more actively in the future.


Thanks,

Herman
Hey Herman

Welcome to the thread

I would like to see this bar close more strong(especially above the BRN of 1.35), but 1.37 on a break of the high is a very logical trouble area. Of course one thing just to remember is that that area is also a zone(although a bit smaller then say a large PPZ), so one thing I do is make sure not to target the Round number to the pip. Saves me a lot of trades coming back on me.

This could be an interesting week be careful out there all

Mike
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  #81659  
Old Dec 5, 2010 10:42pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
AUD/CAD

I would like to see a pullback to parity, the TL with a nice large bearish PA bar.
nice clean chart with great confluence well done Pin

Mike
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  #81661  
Old Dec 6, 2010 12:13am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks Mike.

It amazing what being on the verge of going mad, can lead us to.

I actually, drew those PPZ on the H4 chart then moved to the weekly to check the S&R. Previously, I was doing it the other way around.

May take off without me, but if it pulls back to that area, I am waiting.
That tiny PB was not big enough nor high enough to get me in.


EDIT: Mike, I know I have asked this a long time ago, and I think at that time, I was not ready for the answer.
But, as you know, recently I have spent 2 months from morning to night watching all the...
Hey Pin

There really is no one right or wrong answer. Many PPZs that are obvious are going to overlap timeframes. Remember price we see on a chart is only an aggregation into these different ways. Price is price. But the need to use multiple timeframes to accomplish a few simple goals just begins to confuse most people. Sticking to one timeframe and just keeping things simple is where most people find the most success or building blocks. Again drawing a PPZ on the weekly then daily and seeing when they overlap or refining is fine if you keep things simple. It's all about confluence and clear clean areas and price bars. The rest will fall into place with time and practice. But has anyone ever seen James post a chart with some crazy explanation using 4 timeframes, multiple weird indicators and other stuff. I haven't, and I know I never will. It's all about simplicity. Simplicity comes in many packages.

Summary? Keep it simple.

Best
Mike
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  #81697  
Old Dec 6, 2010 10:34am
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Originally Posted by Mack View Post
I feel as if I have joined at the end of the party! This is quite an incredible thread charting an extremely good method of trading....
Hey Mack

Welcome to the thread firstly

It depend on the situation. Back then my risk per trade was half what it is now so I was also willing to be in more trades since my exposure was lower then. Often times I will take the best of a setup but pairs like aud/usd usd/cad eur/usd aren't all that correlated at many times(see a longer term chart to confirm that). Generally speaking these days 2-3 trades at a time is not unusual many times some has reduced risk/profit locked in so my exposure isn't has a high as 3 trades at once. But that isn't unusual for me.

Again welcome to this thread and keep plowing through
Mike
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  #81705  
Old Dec 6, 2010 1:57pm
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Originally Posted by 666Doom View Post
Hey Jarroo,
Thanks for the rescue.
I have been waiting for your reply.
Ghous did a great job helping me out with my problem.

Yeah i know the Kaboom and Rac i said boom because i believe even knowing kaboom newbies still wont be having kaboom's,so mine was like a baoom. lol

I asked the question that.
Say i have a daily PPZ and i mark these on my chart there is still a probability that it may not line up exactly with a monthly PPZ in that currency pair.
Say Daily at 1.2500
Monthly at 1.2550
So would it be an added extra special confluence if...

Hey Taz

Remember The Z in PPZ stands for zone. So these zones are often going to be just that that. 50 pips b/w a daily and monthly is what I would call a zone rather then a single line on any timeframe. This is why we use the blue boxes to distinguish these "zones" The market can be exact at times but more often a zone mentality makes it easier to see things

Best
Mike
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  #81715  
Old Dec 6, 2010 4:55pm
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Originally Posted by optimuss View Post
Thoughts on this 4hr pin bar at dbl bottom?

The 1.6000 mark is very close to where i'd be looking to enter- does this make the trade a miss?

Secondly, would the better strategy be to enter the trade once it breaks the 1.6000 BRN?

Cheers,
Mick
Hey Mick

This looks like a bad price feed. Price low today was 1.5842


Best
Mike
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  #81784  
Old Dec 7, 2010 9:20am
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Thanks for the nice wishes all love you guys/gals
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  #81789  
Old Dec 7, 2010 9:27am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Oh common,

Don't tell me you're going to be here assisting us even today

You should really be partying away mate.
This ain't college anymore those days are long gone. I am even doing my webinar tonight

But don't come looking for me this weekend
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  #81809  
Old Dec 7, 2010 1:20pm
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Originally Posted by bud_fox View Post
Mike,

Please see attached EURCAD chart. I have highlighted what looks to me as the main PPZ's although I realise and see that there are many small price flips in between the lines that I have inserted.

Arguably you could insert a line at every NR & BRN and you will see a price flip.

Any advice that you can offer is much appreciate and apologises if the quality of the picture is not good.

I look forward to your comments.

Conrad
Hey Conrad

What you are showing are all trouble areas and potential flips but we want to keep our "scope" of the market with what we are looking for.

PPZ have everything from minor PPZs to major. So many of the lines you show could be included into one major PPZ. Those additional lines could be minor PPZs that become more useful for trade mgmt and undertanding where price is likely to go and what to look for.

So for example below I attached a chart with two very clear MAJOR ppzs. We can see the clear flipping of price around these "areas". Notice the area isn't a finite line and I used the round numbers to help see a bit clearer where price wise it is getting respected.

There are also more zones then this and some are choppier. The idea is to identify these areas, add in confluence, and then distinguish what makes a good trade. Then we can begin to hone in our entries and trade mgmt with the other areas.

Now can you trade off minor PPZs, yes. We just again have to realize what type of market environment we are in. So remember this is just one piece. Then you will also notice things like how price boxes around these zones. And use that "box" of information. And the list goes on.

I try to create the story using each of these pieces for my trading. Soemtimes one piece is more prominent and I am open to each new situation. So evaluating the eur/cad I would say my area of interests are going to be 1.37 and 1.3. If we stay in the new "box around 1.37 then I then become aware of that when I want to manage my trade etc

I know this seems pretty confusing but in time you start to see how the pieces best fit together for you depending on each situation

Thanks for the nice wishes again everyone I greatly appreciate it
Mike
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  #81810  
Old Dec 7, 2010 1:32pm
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Originally Posted by Thierry View Post
First of all, mike congrats!!

Just trade this beob at 1415 and take profit 1410 (FTA).
Great trade, I wish I was a bit more aggressive on that one. Failing momentum to the topside. I have this one on tonight's watch list. 1400 specifically
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  #81815  
Old Dec 7, 2010 2:56pm
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Originally Posted by Osman View Post
Hi Mike,

I was looking at that trade, but the previous higher highs (blue boxes) plus not very strong close made me pass on that one..


Maybe im too picky ..
Hey Perico

I was looking for this one too for a stronger close. Picky is all relative to the trader. I just like the look of making a play at this last high. With all the fading momentum. I am watching 1400 personally now

Best
Mike
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  #81819  
Old Dec 7, 2010 3:15pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
What does minor and mayor mean?
mayor is a political office

Minor = less important

Major = more important


Importance again in the scope of what we are looking at. The bigger more standout a PPZ the more likely for a reaction = major

Minor = the less tested an area is showing it to be a flip, the less important or minor

Best
Mike
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  #81822  
Old Dec 7, 2010 3:20pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Exploring Oanda, that doesn't even look like EUR/USD in my other MT4 platforms, I thought we had double inside bars on daily.... still ok this?
Oanda daily bar closes at 12am est which is 5-7 hours later then most platforms. This will greatly change the look of your price aggregation

Mike
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  #81843  
Old Dec 7, 2010 9:32pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Adi, do you really need the added hassle of using two platforms to trade.

I would try and find a broker that has a happy medium between them all.

hehe I use about 8 platforms then :P

Once you do it a few times it's pretty simple(that is charting and transferring to another broker to trade off).

Just the flip side like everything in trading right?

Mike
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  #81861  
Old Dec 8, 2010 1:54am
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Originally Posted by pn1 View Post
First I would like to thank James and other people like mike, Jim, ghous etc. for continuing this excellent thread. Its been a pleasure reading this wonderful thread. By the knowledge of PA I have collected from this thread, I would like to know if I am looking at a correct setup, so please check the charts below
Welcome PN1, glad you are enjoying the thread

Yep this could be an area. We can see it on the daily nice(coming off a BEOB around 1400 mark).

Just be cautious with the PA you choose b/c price is in a "freefall" so to speak so we don't want to catch it with any old PA. At least that is a rule I follow

Hope to see you posting a lot
Mike
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  #81892  
Old Dec 8, 2010 7:38am
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
ahh my old buddy supreme.

an honor to see you.

suns coming up and im off to bed.

i will be back tomorrow night.

jim
What the heck bud get some sleep! I am just waking up and this guys just going to bed. Texan for ya
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  #81896  
Old Dec 8, 2010 7:57am
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Originally Posted by Fxnumen View Post
Hi there,

I want to thank you all for this lovely thread especially the senior ones. Please keep the fire burning.

I have a question. In the attached chart is the marked BEOB an A+ trade for you guys or something you just demo instead of live-trading....
Hey Numen

The fire is burning strong welcome bud

Your bar is just barely a beob with the lower low then the previous bar. Notice though if you go and zoom out your chart a bit more you can get a better picture of this bar. It is very small coming off those recent Bullish moves(blue boxes). It sort of has a "pause" look rather then any real look of a reversal. This is important. It really lacks bar size and confluence for a reason to get back in short. This is a pass in my book, much better trades to come especially on a lower timeframe like the 4hr

Hope that helps and again welcome

Mike
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  #81912  
Old Dec 8, 2010 2:25pm
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Originally Posted by artov View Post
But in my opinion you've ignored an important PPZ. Will that change the story for you at all?
Hey Art

A small bar like that not in the least for me. There is just not much too it. That could easily be just about anything. Looks more like a "stall" at that area, rather then any kind of true selling. Again any bar can and will give results but we want the bars/setups/confluence/areas that give us the best chance over many may trades. There are simply too much better setups for me then to put my money on something like that(of course to each his own as always )

Best
Mike
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  #81913  
Old Dec 8, 2010 2:29pm
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Originally Posted by fxgroup View Post
Big buob at support level.I'm waiting to see 1.62 for good confluence:BRN+good ppz+cluster fibbo+big TL.
Nice bud I took the same one
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  #81915  
Old Dec 8, 2010 2:42pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
Isn?t this BUOB going agains the strong Downtrend and going into traffic?
There is a nice story confluence and ability to manage the trade. I will try to get a chart up later on it

Best
Mike
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  #81927  
Old Dec 8, 2010 5:09pm
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Originally Posted by Kalbar View Post
Mike

This newbie is ready to gobble up your chart - your analysis is always so good to listen to!! Look forward to it.

kal
chart
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  #81928  
Old Dec 8, 2010 5:11pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
chart
and
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  #81955  
Old Dec 8, 2010 8:32pm
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Originally Posted by fxgroup View Post
Those charts have EVERYTHING: patience,trader psychology,chart+bars analyse,entry points with all the reasons,money management,fta,ppz,targets,but most important the plan.Those charts are priceless trading lessons and I don't have enought words to thank you!
Thanks FX, but you can have it all and things still not work out the way you hope :P

B/e on this one missed my t/p by 16 pts, such is trading

Mike
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  #81956  
Old Dec 8, 2010 8:40pm
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Originally Posted by Kalbar View Post
Mike

Thanks for the excellent chart - you make it look easy, but I know that it's not (for me anyway!). Just one question - would you consider the bars to the left to be 'traffic'? I am trying to learn the principles of space and traffic.

Thanks,

Kal
Hey Kal

Traffic is relative. This is trading in a box so by the nature there is going to be traffic thus it was reflective in my trading plan.

Best
Mike
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  #81957  
Old Dec 8, 2010 8:43pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Hello Mike, this was a great trade. Strong bounce of the lower boundary!

Just one thing I would like to bring and ask you for advice, if possible.
I know it may sound stupid, but I think the standard MACD is NOT WORKING.

Well, I consider MACD important as we look for divergence as one of our confluences. So it must be sharp. But look what I see again and again.

These are: Standard MACD MT4, Mt4 MACD Imported, TOS, NetDania.
Only Standard macd show div, when others do not. And those others are pretty much the same. How could that be?...
Hey Adi

Not really sure this is going to be something with how each is looking to display the oscillator and whatever the inputs are. Since that is all it is. Just keep it simple if you ask me. Use an oscillator you are comfortable and go from there.

Best
mike
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  #81958  
Old Dec 8, 2010 8:43pm
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Originally Posted by Fxnumen View Post
Thanks Mike. As always your simplicity is unparalleled. PA has really changed my trading positively...hopefully in time, I'll be able to analyze the markets like you guys.
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  #81962  
Old Dec 8, 2010 10:04pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
Happy birthday mike.

Appreciate you man.
thanks my texan brotha
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  #82031  
Old Dec 9, 2010 10:52am
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Originally Posted by HanSolo View Post
Hello Mike, thanks for the great explanation. I've got a question: Was your SL under the BRN right away or did you wait until the first bar of your trade closed?

I know that those RN act as reliable S/R but I'm still not sure where to place my SL behind them. That's because sometimes price spikes through a fair amount of pips before closing back above/below them.
Hey Han

I used the BRN to move my stop up after price moved away. But initially started under the low of the bar. I use that extra room as my way to reduce risk(that's why I don't just start with it higher to increase my position size)

Best
Mike
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  #82032  
Old Dec 9, 2010 10:53am
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Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MIKE

Never stop being that great helpful guy
Have a happier, more profitable year ahead
GOD bless YOU
thanks man! You guys are the best
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  #82063  
Old Dec 9, 2010 7:34pm
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Originally Posted by pn1 View Post
Hello guys.
The current gbp aud level looks good what do you think Mike, Jaroo, Ghous, Pinbar, Bluetrader, SC and many others.
Hey PN1

I am a bit confused on how you are entering and using the fibs. Are you just playing a buy touch on the 1.6? If so I can understand that but not quite sure how some of those other fibs play a role. Don't forget the market is in a very tight range so I would keep it very basic within this box.

I recently took a trade on the gbp/aud that may help though with a general analysis here are those two posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post4230964
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post4230967

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #82069  
Old Dec 9, 2010 8:55pm
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Originally Posted by pn1 View Post
Hey Mike
I am trying to take a touch trade above the 1.6 level. As the market is currently slowing down I am looking for a quick move up and move my stops to BE. As far as the fib goes I was trying to show the S/R level. Still not quite sure how you would manage this trade or are you still in it. BTW I also took the entry at the bottom of the box but closed the position at 1.6 level.

Also one more question: Won't you consider the move from top to bottom of the box as swing for drawing fibs.
Hey PN1

I cant really see the need to draw a swing for fibs being stuck in the box. That is what confused me about your entry above 1.6. Too me this is sort of just buying right at the mid point of the box. Again it may be something you do that works so that is why i asked. I got stopped out at b/e missing my take profit(as shown in the chart) by a handful of pips. What I pasted those for was to show you my thought process for entry.

Best
Mike
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  #82071  
Old Dec 9, 2010 9:12pm
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Thanks Mike. Maybe I was a bit curious of being in the trade. But don't you consider it to be the retest of the 1.6 level after break.
Hey Pn1

Yep it is, but that is why I was confused about you wanting to buy so much higher up. To me the trade will have been well under way and it makes more sense (in my eyes) to then be buying at the 1.6. Especially since were stuck in a very choppy tight range. So for example taking a touch trade buy FTB(first time back) to the 1.6 would have got price to bounce some 40 odd pips. Again don't let me talk you out or into anything, just sharing what I see here too

Best
Mike
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  #82076  
Old Dec 9, 2010 11:19pm
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Hey Mike, when your trade gets near the FTA do you ever move down to a lower TF to see if it makes sense to exit early?
Hey Spookie

Not for me that isn't really my style. I tend to make poor decisions when I do things like that.

Mike
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  #82178  
Old Dec 10, 2010 9:23am
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First post, so Hi folks =)

I have been trying to read through this thread, it really is quite big! I think I've learned a lot from it so far, and started my trades .. well I burned through ?2000 pretty quickly. Thank goodness it was a demo account hah I took the advice on the first post and think I understand the 'philosophy' of it and this thread. It made sense, 'clicked' with me so I've been learning, watching, and set myself up a demo account. I passed ?1000 in losses just figuring the program out to be honest hah then I burned through a lot...
welcome Alan
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  #82182  
Old Dec 10, 2010 9:47am
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
So how do you usually manage a trade? Do you wait till it hits your target before you take profit or move SL to BE? Do you do as James does and move to BE after so much gain? Just trying to figure out how to make a failed trade into at worst a small lose or BE. Thanks Mike.
Hey Spookie

I wish I had a simple straight forward answer for you but it's just different each time. I have basically 3 main categories of trading as I see them and break them down and each one tends to get looked at as it's own scenario by which I evaluate how to best manage the trade as I see fit. I wish there was a clear summary but combined my 3 methods have about 10,000 posts alone in q&a in the pf so you can imagine there's no short answer here.

Best
Mike
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  #82196  
Old Dec 10, 2010 12:40pm
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no simple 'rule of thumb' huh ?
nope there are just certain things you will do over and over as a trader. So it might not be as simple as 1,2,3 but you develop things that work better in certain situations and apply these, and then in the long run it works as a whole method(remember not a system)

Best
Mike
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  #82197  
Old Dec 10, 2010 12:40pm
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Originally Posted by damien100 View Post
Just seen it's your Birthday Mike
wishing you a great Birthday and nice weekend
and thanks for evrything
Best
D
Thanks Damien
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  #82230  
Old Dec 11, 2010 10:56am
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
Hey mike are you still using this indicator to trail your Stops for breakout trades?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=61790
Hey John

Yes I will still use the BAT to help with volatility breakout guide. Often using S/R along the way or having a final target in mind too

Best
Mike
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  #82232  
Old Dec 11, 2010 11:51am
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my portion of the guest section will be updated next week. I have been bad with that. 2 videos will be ones I have shared in here(but stuff is hard enough to find), but I will also cut out a part of a webinar as well for you guys.

I know it was long enough so the hate mail can stop (just kidding LOL)


Have a great weekend my friends
Mike
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  #82286  
Old Dec 12, 2010 1:19pm
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Originally Posted by blaz86 View Post
Hi folks, i have a question for those who uses FxPro (or other) for charting and trades through Oanda. I'm looking at a weekly pin on EURCAD and as you see on the FxPro picture the distance from the break and the low of the pin is 326 pips and the distance from the break and the FTA is 125 pips. That is RR to FTA of 0.38.

But... if i check the highs and lows on Oanda to place my order, you can see that there is quite a bit of price difference, so on Oanda you get a RR to FTA of 0.25.

How do you guys handle this?


...
Yeah I just use the FXPRO to chart, but ultimately do all my entries based on the highs/lows of the oanda feed if that is the broker I am trading with.

Best
Mike
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  #82289  
Old Dec 12, 2010 1:38pm
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Originally Posted by blaz86 View Post
thank you for your response. what i meant to ask is this, on FxPro that pin looks good to me for taking some quick profit to FTA, but when i checked Oanda that pin doesn't look so good anymore (RR to FTA changed from 0.38 to 0.25).

Do you change your mind in such situations?
Hey Blaz

If it is a good trade i'll still take it. R:R won't factor in much for me. So most of the time it wont'. If I think there is enough room and a high enough probability then I will still be fine with it personally.

Hope you had a nice weekend all

Mike
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  #82290  
Old Dec 12, 2010 1:40pm
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Originally Posted by Kalbar View Post
Hi guys

Hope y'all hadhaving good weekend ! Just wanted to ask if anyone has noticed when spottting a good weekly setup on the charts if the trade ever has any momentum on a Sunday or do things start moving on a Monday morning when London opens? Just wondering if anyone has spotted a pattern here? Or does it really depend on the pair, eg UJ,GBJ start moving when the japanese markes open?

Kalbar
Hey Kal

Most sundays will be rather dead. But there are also many times sundays can be active. For the most part the markets getting kicking when london opens early monday. But again on any given sunday things can get active too if the markets are volatile.

Mike
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  #82297  
Old Dec 12, 2010 2:46pm
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Mike

Thanks for answering my question. I am in the UK so the London open siuits me fine when looking for movement. Sunday is probably a good day to do scanning for potential moves in the week ahead. Just one specific question mike - how do you reduce the stop sizes on potential weekly setups which have huge stops(ie hundreds of pips?)

Thanks,

Kal
Hey Kal

Remember stops and pips are all relative. We always must remember to position size properly. So my goal is to reduce my stop based on that bar when my method tells me too. So if I risk 2% per trade it doesn't matter if my stop is 30 pips or 300 pips. 2% is 2%. I personally look to reduce my stop as the trade works/or doesn't work in my favor as I see fit.

Hope that makes sense
Mike
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  #82302  
Old Dec 12, 2010 4:59pm
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Originally Posted by pn1 View Post
Hey Guys
I see some nice locations. See charts and say what you think.
We have lots of nice boxing which gives tons of potential areas to watch.

Here is a chart for you
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  #82307  
Old Dec 12, 2010 6:54pm
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Originally Posted by pn1 View Post
Hey Mike Thanks to you for your reply. But this reply has put some doubts in my mind. Would you consider the levels in my chart as whipsaws or just part of boxes. Mike, Jaroo, Ghous, SC and all seniors please tell me how you view these levels.
Hey PN1

It depends on the price action that forms at the lower part of that box. For now I see everything as stuck in consolidation. If price gets under the box and then pulls back(to roughly 1.5800) that is an area to confirm the retest of the underside of the box. That is former support turning back to resistance. Where I drew those big arrows is where I will personally watch for price action

Best
Mike
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  #82312  
Old Dec 12, 2010 8:21pm
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Originally Posted by pn1 View Post
Thanks for your assistance Mike. But my question actually was that would you consider the white area marked by me on your chart as false attempts to break the 1.5950-1.6 level or would you consider to box to be from the 1.58 to 1.64 level. Hope you understand the problem I am facing.
P
Hey P

Sorry I misunderstood

I would consider 1.58-1.65 an entire boxed region personally

Best
Mike
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  #82314  
Old Dec 12, 2010 8:53pm
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Originally Posted by pn1 View Post
So Mike if I consider 1.5950 to 1.64 would that be wrong in any sense because I consider that to be false break.(my chart in post). Sorry for causing you so much trouble.
P
Hey P no bother at all bud

You could. I think the more important thing to note the area of interest and the equilibrium that is occurring around these levels. Meaning a battle b/w bears/bulls, or supply/demand . So the more important thing if any is that the market is ranging in my view.

Best
Mike
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  #82363  
Old Dec 13, 2010 10:21am
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Originally Posted by Osman View Post
GM guys,

Anybody took this ? I personally missed it

Very nice 4hr setup on G/CHF
Big strong BEOB engulfing 10 bars, close below 1.55
365 ema above.
50% of previous down move

Os.
bingo nice

Always be more just stay patient
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  #82379  
Old Dec 13, 2010 3:04pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
I think i will make a small break with trading and start again next year. But i will still read and study the method till next year. I found out that trading in December is difficult anyone found that out too?
Decembers can be choppy or thin since a lot of people begin to close up show. It has been pretty choppy up and down month for me as well.

I'll close up shop next week
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  #82381  
Old Dec 13, 2010 3:18pm
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Originally Posted by john225 View Post
Mike did i notized it right that this setup hasn?t enough space so it is an easy pass?

PS: The name of the attachement is wrong it is not the AUDUSD chart it is the NZDUSD Chart;-)
For me it isn't so much no space here as it is the location of the bar(where the bar sits). I would want to see it have a lower low then the recent swing low(drew it in). Where as this sort of just in middle there. A break we have a good area of where price should end up testing(blue box).

Best
Mike
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  #82383  
Old Dec 13, 2010 3:37pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
This is interesting Mike. I read somewhere that they (marketmakers) many times would mark up/down the price below hi/lo, to see if there are adequate # of orders (so they too can initiate their positions) if they see no reall pressure they let the price go to the other side really hard.
(excuse my english if this is a really primitive explanation).
But you get the idea of what I mean.

This perfectly (in my view) goes well with PB formation.
And this example you show is for the same reasons?...
Hey Adi

I like that lower low so I can see price testing what was under the most recent point of buying. It is also a chance to wash out stops and weak players. So for me it helps give me some more information. Of course it comes back to everything together as a whole. But this is part of it. Just as Jim says to look for these bars at good areas of confluence and swing highs/lows.

Best
Mike
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  #82385  
Old Dec 13, 2010 3:48pm
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Originally Posted by Adilius07 View Post
Thank you Mike. Just one last thing if you could, just can't get it.

Of course I understand there are lots of stops. But they are Sell orders (long trader's stops) so if price goes to test it, those longs would be washed out - which is not good for our future long position??

Can't see the logic. Of course I saw many times that price bounce hard after breaking that previuos buying level, but why, we washed out many longs so shorts must be stronger at this point no?
Hey Adi

IN terms of just a general statement. Cause you can't make a blanketed statement that the market always fits into.

But if you had to put a large order into the market, you need liquidity to do so. You don't just click buy or sell or you could take major hit. So if you know an area where there are a lot of orders, those orders = liquidity. So if you want to get in LONG, you need people to SELL to you. If someone is in long, there stop loss is a SELL order. So these areas become good pockets of liquidity and now someone could put in a nice buy order there.

How it sustains after that is again no general way to talk about everything. Just some things that do occur in all traded markets.

Best
Mike
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  #82413  
Old Dec 14, 2010 12:13am
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Originally Posted by forex0908 View Post
Hi Jarroo, PB, Ghous....

Wanted to know whether this BUOB yesterday on AUDCAD Daily chart is a good set-up ?

I read somewhere on this forum (Pinbar's post I think) that good BUOBs are good at swing lows.

Also, can someone please help me understand the story that this chart is telling.

I loved Ghous's story telling on Inside Bars a few pages back. That way I understand the charts much more.

Thanks.
Hey FX

Traditionally speaking we want BUOBs at swing lows. This is how James teaches and I believe it is important as well to get the foundation and learn them where Jim teaches first. Now you can play a bar anywhere. As ghous explained with IBs, and as Jarroo has shown in his last few posts, it is the story(as you said) that will give you the confidence on when to pull the trigger and importantly where.

Here is a case where we have a strong uptrend, price rejected around the 1.000(and just above no surprise) and once again has found its way towards and closing above the parity level(1.0). So in that regards it is nice as a continuation, but the setup being a continuation IMO makes it a bit trickier to distinguish. So with that I would move to where should price potentially find resistance? See Blue Box.

For me the best continuation bars are formed off nice breakout type areas. Here is the case where I think a break brings us to the blue box, but the bar being a bit just "out there". Lacks enough confidence for me to pull the trigger as a continuation. If this had a lower low, testing a bit lower down into the recent buying pressure(towards last swing low). It would give a lot more information to me

Of course these are just my personal views
Mike
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  #82437  
Old Dec 14, 2010 10:25am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
I wonder what James16's opinion is on this subject.

Isn't price action enough?

I mean, you don't have to become a mechanic to drive a car, right?

By the way, not posting much as I have done my back in again...

I think I have a curse on me or something, recently, this must be the second time I have put my back out in 2 months.

maybe, too much sitting in the chair for too long.
The thing about PA Analysis(meaning everything we do), encompasses a lot of market microstructure into it. But since we look and see we often don't ask why for certain things(which I encourage people to do with their trading). For example why round numbers? Why Big bars? Why closes in certain places? Why long noses on pins? the list goes on and on. These are in turn microstructure questions and most have answers that a person wanting to learn that stuff can come to the conclusion with this stuff. We still must be able to apply and that is the most important.

Yes chair sitting will do that Pin. I just got an aeron posture-fit and boy what a difference.

Best
Mike
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  #82439  
Old Dec 14, 2010 10:34am
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Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
Sorry for stealing from you , but I found it very funny the way it moves .

by the way you can find it on page 1500 if my memory doesn't let me down.

all the best!
LOL
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  #82444  
Old Dec 14, 2010 11:09am
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Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
Hey Mike,

Can I ask you a question? If there's a bullish PinBar on Daily and there's also a bearish PinBar on 4 Hour -which one will you take assuming setup is great and other things being equal? I mean 4 Hour make up the daily, right? For the daily PB to work out, does the 4 Hour PB have to fail? Or does it the other way around? Or both could still work? It's kinda like eggs and chicken, doesn't it?
Hey BC

I don't have a simple answer. For me I try to keep it all separate. If I am in a daily trade, I manage that. If a 4hr trade comes up, I manage that. I am picky so this is pretty rare but it can happen. A more likely occurrence may be a daily trade one way and an hourly trade another. Again they both have their own flow so I stick with keeping them separate for the majority of the time. Kind of like someone who drops down from a daily to manage on the hour. If it works for you it works. But it can often lead to more noise. I just think of James. He always posts and does things on the same timeframe. Keeping it simple.

best
Mike
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  #82446  
Old Dec 14, 2010 11:17am
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Originally Posted by fxgroup View Post
Hi !I'm not one of the seniors,but this is a thread where the traders help each other,so I'll give a try.Between 19 oct 2007 and 22 feb 2008 the price was in consolidation(range market) limited by blu lines.Personally,I think the better way to trade the buob that shows that the buyers had the force to push up the price from that consolidation,is to wait that price turns at the upper range's limit what act as support, and buy WITH pa confirmation .
P.S. A classic Mike's situation !
Yep this is definitely one way to play them. Waiting for a re-test of the range.

This is also a good one b/c you have the BUOB popping out of a very strong range that you also showed. I call this the preemptive breakout and it is also a favorite play of mine. You then have the top of the range to help manage the trade as well.

Nice simple analysis though FXG that is key

Mike
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  #82449  
Old Dec 14, 2010 11:29am
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Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
This is what i am talking about Mike. Someone mentioned this 4H PB earlier. Setup looked great, but that daily PB in the opposite direction worried me. I know micro managing is bad, but what i am asking is if one isn't already in a trade, which one to choose: lower TF or higher TF?
Hey BC

I wouldn't be looking at the daily. If the 4hr meets my criteria then I trade the 4hr, the daily does not come into play for me at all

Best
Mike
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  #82452  
Old Dec 14, 2010 11:42am
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Originally Posted by Be Cool View Post
Would your answer be different if that FTA was not too close on the daily chart? Or do you gravitate towards trading the lower TF PA and watching what happens to the higher TF PA? Sorry for bugging you - i am really confused
Hey BC

If anything that daily supports that 4hr BEOB. That really isn't a pinbar based on the location. It is more of an IPB as brought to these pages by ghous(not a traditional j16 bar). But that daily bar is not one James would ever present to trade. Notice how it is towards a swing high point/traffic/middle of no where. But also notice it is up against but could not close above the BRN of 1.6. So to me this isn't strength as opposed to weakness combined with the IPB if I had to use the daily to help.

But with that aside, I would simply be looking and analyzing the 4hr chart by itself. That's it. If I am going to choose to trade the daily I am going to manage it on the daily (90%) of the time. Same goes for the 4hr. I don't start trying to do multi timeframe analysis it doesn't help add value to my trading personally.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #82463  
Old Dec 14, 2010 2:18pm
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Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Just a quick rant post as we are quickly approaching year end.

Attached is the GBP/AUD Daily BUOB that formed last week. (sorry if the chart isn't great, I do not have access to my MT4.)

I took this bar along with a few other members on the forum. I am posting this today because if you did not use the methods J16 teaches here you may have finally been stopped out for a full bar loss. Something we definitely dont want to happen often.

I took this trade. It had quite a few things going for it. Large Bar, Good strong close above the 1.60 and...

great post bud!
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  #82481  
Old Dec 14, 2010 5:37pm
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Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
any idea about this daily pb?
Would have liked to see a larger push through the 1.35 area. Not much space to work with on the daily. A break should see the blue boxed area at least
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  #82482  
Old Dec 14, 2010 5:38pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Beau . .ti . . .ful . . Look at all those confluences . . nice.

I would also add the confluence that the Daily and Weekly bar(s) did not close above the 1.6000.


Now can you imagine Os, that you will only take setups that are just like this one. . . meaning exactly like this one. . .not one or two confluences but all of them combined that you have here.

If you do . .welcome to the trader's world of pickiness.
For sure. It may not be very fancy but it gets the job done.
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  #82487  
Old Dec 14, 2010 8:17pm
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Originally Posted by fiattrader View Post
mbqb11
Re EURUSD - While it would be nice to have seen it push through the 1.35 before the retrace, the two days in a row clearly not able to hold above the 5 month uptrend line looks pretty good for direction from here. Of course nothing is confirmed until it is confirmed. I am probably more concerned that we are too close to Christmas and the markets may well not go where we think they may.
Hey THere Fiat

Yeah I have to agree with you. For my style this type of setup isn't really worth it with that area so close and how much these markets are swinging right now(rather thin for the holidays right around the corner). I prefer to use these bars to test my knowledge with S/R and just see where price is likely to go.

Best
Mike
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  #82492  
Old Dec 14, 2010 8:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks Mike...Yeah, got to remember to get up and exercise a little every hour instead of sitting for 3 or 4 hours straight building up chart time.


Hmm, I see...Mike, we all know the RN is psychological thing, big bars, I presume is for momentum, I thought the long nose is also momentum but, as you mention them separately, I guess not.

You have any recommended reading for these points and any other you feel valid to our methodology.

Thanks Mike
Hey Pin

A lot of it is stuff that i have picked up over time from watching the charts and making my own inferences about situations. Others are from various trader whom I have a great deal of respect for their knowledge of the markets(like Darkstar). My recommendation is to spend time thinking about why you intend to do something and why you want to take a trade. It isn't that you will be right every time but it will bring you to think more about the little things you do(everyone has different things and different beliefs).
I have formulated mine that have certainly changed and molded over time.

Best
Mike
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  #82500  
Old Dec 15, 2010 12:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post


EDIT: Take AUD/USD right now, what made it break through the VBRN+ Parity then get rejected at the 1.02000?
Is this fear of uncharted territory, the unknown? I mean, one would think the parity area would be psychologically stronger than the 1.02000?
Simply put in my chartist eyes is that price was once again testing the very important level. Momentum was low. So the bears came in on the weak buying. Be it the 1.000, or 1.002(careful you wrote 1.02 which would be 200 pips as opposed to the 20 pips it went) it's all really the same. Price doesn't turn on a dime. Price hitting this level could have very well triggered stop losses on shorts pushing price higher just slightly above parity as well. I wouldn't go reading into a 20 pip move past that personally. Now we will have to see what develops around this level that give us more information. One could have shorted those smaller bars b/c of the level. I prefer for something more concrete to jump out. There is a lot of support now forming under us and this is sort of do or die around this level so to speak. I will be watching this level very closely for more clues

Best
Mike
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