Yes that's what I'am telling myself also, just look at the chart of the pair. But I still have the feeling that these pairs follow the Dow like a dog. Today, on the 1H-TF: @ 14:00 (GMT+1) Dow generates a 1H-BUOB breaking the RNB @ 11000, also @ the same time Ozzie generates a 1H-BOUB breaking back above the RNB @ 9800, also @ the same time Euro generates a 1H-BOUB reaching for the RNB @ 13900 and also the Kiwi generated @ the same time a 1H-BUOB closing back above the BRN @ 7500 again
This is all good, xmz . . .as long as it works for you not against you. There are many traders here that use these and other correlations as an added confluence to their trades, not as thee reason for a trade. If it can work for you . .go for it . .
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no problem John,
its touch trade with a little bit of twist but its best I digress as this thread is strictly J16PA .... what you have to do is master finding support/resistance levels well and sit back and watch how price reacts to those levels(can u draw s/r levels & watch the rxn without trading for a wk plus, im sure b4 the wk runs out ,ull see a lovely PA bar on atleast 1)
price moves up, down and sideways ....... after staring at price for a while ull have ideas of what itll do around ppzs.
just keep staring at ur charts until...
Nice squeezy . . . lets see . .Rac-man . . Squeez-man . . I like it . . lol
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So as it is now that that .7500 has been broken one would be looking to see if it will act as support where one would probably see bullish PA right?
Meanwhile I actually went to that link you referred and seeing that chart lit a bulb in my head! I quickly scanned through some of charts on the screen and I saw things differently. As it is right now I don't know if will be able to sleep this night (it's midnight in country) I'm just absorbing, making notes and more notes!!!!!!!! Thank you !!
Yes I would say its a good indication that the .7500 will act as Support, again. Not only because we have had another break upward of the .7500 and the Daily closed above it, but we have a recent history of the .7500 acting as Support. (blue)
I know the feeling, jeff . . . . lol . .
Wow did you see that . .price just jumped down to the .7500 and jumped back up . . .cool.
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Thank you for the link, Jaroo.
I am reviewing it now.
Considering the daily trend, wouldn't it be dangerous to short?
I would say . . Yes . . it is dangerous to short . . I would also say its dangerous to go long as well.
I want to see a clear story of what Price is telling us at these strong levels. It could be as simple as . .Price returns to Support followed by big Bullish PA.
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I still have yet to understand that, I still feel I am going backwards for some reason. Thanks for the kind encouragement though, these things help greatly in the struggle.
What I am practicing now, is only;y drawing the PPZ on the daily by spotting the weekly ones, and the sub levels. I am checking them on the weekly afterward and I seem to be able to get them.
It is interesting and seems to be how James is doing it.
One step at a time my friend . . . .soon it will all come togther. Keep at it, bro. . . your doing fine.
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I agree. A strong close below 113 on the 4H would be nice. Either way, it looks like 113 is a PPZ to watch. I especially like the 150 ema in confluence almost to the pip with 113.
wow . . . you guys are on freaking roll.
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double triple bottom with div on daily waiting to trigger buy limit on retrace on 4H chart support ...will look for fta for profit and move stop to BE...if failure will cut losses by moving stop up based on PA
I understand you view Atc, but we still have to fight a strong move down. We can have this turning point (sup to res) work with the trend.
Its good to look at both sides of the equation.
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Haven't posted in a while.. The james16 stuff is giving me new ideas to identify S&R areas that I use with my own style of trading. Really appreciate everyones posts. How about this one from an hour ago Jarroo.. I believe you guys call it the "Kaboom!" Location is everything. PA happens because of location.
Nice TL+50 fib - hard to go wrong.
Nice one Captain.
The Rac-man KaBoom setup is all about location, meaning multiple confluences lining up to a single point or, better said, a single area or zone .
I would say . .hard to go wrong with a Nice TL+50 Ret. or 61.8 Fib that lines up with a PPZ level or a BRN. The PPZ level or BRN acting as Support or acting as Resistance are the good locations and the added confluences makes it go . .KaBoom!
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im wondering if its worth creating a new J16 thread based on its original teachings .. there is just so much "other" stuff in here these days its barely resembling its original intention ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by supermatt
here here. i barely even visit this thread anymore due to how off track its got.
We are still talking about PPZ levels . .Support/ Resistance levels . .Confluences . . Price Action confirmation .. .etc.
Is it the touch trade stuff??
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This time I marked where price is likely to go (in my opinion; turquoise). Of course it is easier to see what price did with hindsight. But I begin to understand why Jim and other fellow traders don't even care too much about trendlines and stuff. Only one BEOB failed on this chart.
Great charts Hans . . everyone should do this exercise . .as Mike would say . . until their eyes bleed . .lol
Just a side note: I believe you meant to say . . 2 Hour PB on your Hourly chart , , and 8 Hour PB on your 4 Hour chart . . instead of 2 Day PB.
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I have read probably every post in this thread, or only skipped posts I didn't need to read (questions already answered, etc.).
And recently I see a lot of the same stuff. New posters asking the same questions (this is to be expected, welcome new guys), guys who have been around a while looking for help with their PPZ (Pinbar, great questions, great posts, Jarroo, great answers), and then maybe a touch trade discusion once every 5 pages.
Yes, this thread moves fast. It has been moving fast for the last 18 months or so. But the basics are still...
Thanks tj . .I agree.
It just shows the versatility of this method . . .it can be applied to so many different styles and aspects of trading. The basic concepts are still talked about daily.
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I took this EG trade this morning following these steps:
On spotting the DBLHC on the Daily Tf this morning I cranked down to H4 tF and spotted a nice bullish pb sitting pretty well on the 0.88000 BRN. I then set up a buy stop just above the pb, then threw in my fib tool. Now seeing that 0.88500 BRN which has also been a Daily ppz and close to the first fib extension I presumed that on breaking price might stall around there so I put my take profit just below it and for my Sl I cranked to H1 tf and located 0.87713 point well below the 0.88000...
Hey jeff . . let me just show you how I would view this setup and I'm not saying yours is wrong.
As we talked about before, I see the Daily in a consolidation . .caught between two Weekly PPZ levels, the .8850 and .8700. So a breakout of this consolidation is what I'm waiting for to happen, and see if a Breakout PullBack with PA is presented.
The 4 hour PB I would give a pass because this bullish PB is at a swing High not a swing Low where we like them. If it occurred at the bottom of this daily consolidation at the .8700, much like the 4 Hour BUOB, I would be all over it at that swing Low location.
I'm sure you saw the .8800 acting as a Support level to support the 4 Hour bullish PB. That Support level wasn't to convincing to me. But if I did take it, the blue lines would be my targets, previous bar Highs/Lows. Tight S/L just below the .8800. A hard break of the PB ( which it did . .nice) is the only way I'd trade it, meaning if it didn't break hard . .I'm out quickly.
hope this helps,
Jim
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very true ...I was being conservative in relation to the downward pressure and believed that it would at least get back to 79.50 zone ...was looking at the wkly low for 1st fta(check mark)---guess who taught me this?(you-Jim)...that is why I took 2/3 of my position off at 79.50 area and move to BE...other third stopped out at BE
You managed that trade fantastically, Atc.
It could have easily shot to the moon based on your analysis. .double triple bottom with div on daily, etc.
You can see how this Sup to Res/Res to Sup once Price breaks through can give you a bit of a bounce to cover your risk . .well done, sir.
Jim
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Do they all retrace?? . .good question cprao . . . it all depends on the quality of the setup . . meaning is the Outside Bar at a Swing High/Low or in consolidation. . does it have supporting confluences . .etc. Or even if they're not of high quality.
Its just interesting to see these levels, (previous bar High/Lows of Outside Bars), have such a reaction to Price far after they are formed. . .whether they retraced at the time of their formation or not.
Any one remember this chart on the Daily Eur/Gbp? Yeah I see that its at the .8900 RN and RNs on this pair are usually very strong . .just an observation.
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Any one remember this chart on the Daily Eur/Gbp? Yeah I see that its at the .8900 RN and RNs on this pair are usually very strong . .just an observation.
But what about the BUOB on the Daily Cad . . .again just an observation . .
I see. If a clear story for long is a big bullish PA at support, then for short, it would be a big bearish PA at resistance. Does all this happened at 0.7500? Or would another level be watched for short, e.g. 0.7550?
Also, assuming the short set up prevailed, does a short set up means that this would be a change in the daily trend to be down trend? Is it save to assume that?
Sorry for asking too many questions.
Sorry I missed your post MG.
That's a good point MG . .we are reaching new Highs on the Nzd/Usd and we can see the .7640-50ish is a past PPZ level on the Weekly acting now as Resistance. Strong bearish PA at this level would look good.
The Daily is making lower Highs and some lower Lows so a down trend could be forming. More likely a consolidation area forming around the .7500. A lot of market flow happening at this .7500 level, if you have been reading up on mqbq11's (Mike) posts on BRNs.
So if more signs of a downward trend continue I would view the .7500 more as Restistance and if the uptrend continues I would the .7500 as Support. . .with of course PA showing us the way.
Don't know if I answered any of your questions.
Jim
(The previous bar High of that BUOB (blue) sure is an interesting level . .)
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Here's a good example on the Nzd/Usd 4 Hour time frame around the .7500 BRN. Price is turning from Support to Resistance and back again all over the place at this level.
So Price presents a 4 Hour PB at the .7500 which also has some confluences; 50% Ret and off the 61.8 Fib. Not bad . .but the traffic could be clearer and the swing low could be deeper or lower.
We still have to consider our PA targets, previous bar High/Lows. We know, as James16 teaches, that Price will react to these targets and part of our trade management tells us that we must be prepared to act once these targets are hit or even before their hit . .(well at least they do for me).
The PB breaks and hits its targets and falls back. . .no surprise here. The PB is considered a success in my book. You just have to decide if the area to the target is worth it or the setup as a whole is just not worth it, meaning its not that big, too much traffic, not a swing low, etc . .pass on this one.
Just some thoughts.
Jim
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Still learning the trick and trades of Touch Trading.
Dunno if I understand the method correctly but would the intersection of 1.36 and TL result in a possible Kaboom?
Studying Raczekfx's charts can give you a better understanding on his famous KaBoom! setups.
But what I've learned from his charts is that they have a PPZ level in them either acting as a Support level or a Resistance level with muliple confluences lining up with that level . . I like to call them a strong level of Locational Confluence.
Here's an example On the Eur/Jpy 4 hour chart.
We have Lower Highs confirming a possible downtrend. Next, a PPZ level at the 114.00ish turning from Support to Resistance that lines up with a trendline and 61.8 Fib . .KaBoom! .. .well . . almost . .Price didn't quite get there. Rac may have other confluences that he factors in.
Jim
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I would have liked to see this PB close below the 113 instead of the 1130.54 it closed at. I am wondering as it is Friday, if we are going to get a run up to the 50 fibo and linger there a while till London opens for the Kaboom?
Yeah a stronger close below the 113.00 would have gave some indication that the 113.00 level would start turning into Resistance from its current Support. And today it still didn't close below the 113.
This may give some insight to why that 4 hour BEOB on this pair that you posted earlier this week failed to make a hard break or at least hit a close target.
Let me explain . .
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First let's look at the 113.75 of the Eur/Jpy. I like to define Price as acting as Support or Resistance on a given level by how it closes. So even if there is a long wick above or below the given level, its how it closes that defines it. By "it" I mean the given level.
(The 150 ema played a confluencing role as well.)
Let me know if the chart is too messy to understand.
The 113.00 level. . .
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The 113.00 level has a bit of choppiness along it but it shows signs of a PPZ level. You can see why clear, clean levels are not only stronger but easier to work with.
The yellow area is what I want to talk about. Price strongly closes below the 113.00 on the Daily . . so now I would look for the 113.00 to act as Resistance. . . .easy stuff.
But you can see that once Price came back up to the 113.00, there was no signs (bearish PA) that is was acting as Resistance on even the smallest of time frames.
Then Price closes above the 113.00 on the Daily . .so now I would look for the 113.00 to act as Support . . .here is where your 4 Hour BEOB comes into play.
One reason, I believe, that the 4 hour BEOB worked out so poorly was that the previous Daily bar closed above the 113.00. . . because of this, the 113.00 was now a Support level and the 4 Hour BEOB was fighting this . . it didn't have the strength, due to size or stronger close itself, etc., to override this higher time frame level.
Your thoughts?
Jim
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Thanks for your reply, Jim.
Yes it answered my questions.
From reading earlier posts, I learned that PA set ups on a good location is the one we are advised to take.
However, I am a bit confused about swing highs. For example, on the chart, could the pin bar inside the box be said to have formed at a swing high?
MG
Yes, that PB would be considered at a swing High. Why we like our PA at these swing Highs/Lows is because they provide the much needed Space or lack of traffic of previous bar Highs and Lows so they have room to run when they break.
So the deeper the swing point the better . . .like bluetrader's recent post as a great example . .notice the Space it provided.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
This TRID weekly stock chart looks tempting....
Good weekend everyone.
-- Danny
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G'day Jarroo,
Would you consider the posted setup I saw today a valid one ? The 4H-PPZ in the 1H-TF didn't match the point of confluence that nicely, they were about 10 pips off. On the lower TF though price gave a nice PB @ the point of confluence and closed below the 4H-PPZ.
May the force be with you.
Yes, a valid setup. . .confluence at a PPZ level, previous Support turning into Resistance . Nice. Remember these are zones or areas of confluence . . . . +/-10 pips is good.
The Hourly is not a PB, its an IB . .still valid PA. . .
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1-Dont take a touch trade until u have at least 3 confluence factors.
2-Dont take a touch trade without a clear daily (or above) PPZ.
I took this Echf setup and got stopped out. There was this TL, PPZ,Double top in 1h, and Divg. But could have passed it easily cause that was really a poor PPZ.
This one is a classic rac setup, See clear PPZ, 50 Fib and TL.
P.S: I was just reading Rac's posts i think it's the 6th or 7th time i am doing this. It really clears my mind looking at his clean charts and PPZ's.
....
Great post nasir . .
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I am floundering here somewhat so, I am trying to simplify things.
I can see on the H4 and the daily that, we actually have 3 ranges going on and the 113.621 area is the support area, if indeed we are going to rally up and test the upper range.
Still thinking about this.
Let me show you an example of how I would have liked the Daily Bars (in yellow) to close on the Eur/Jpy chart for that 4 Hour BEOB to work.
Here's the Aud/Usd Daily chart. Same type of situation as in the Daily Eur/Jpy, but this time the Daily bar did not Close above the .9870 PPZ level or previous Support. So now the .9870 will act as Resistance.
Looking at the 4 Hour we have a BEOB at this Resistance level (that was previous Support then Price broke through it) and it works out fine for some good pips.
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CHFJPY....nice Fib confluence at both the 83 and 81.5 area. Nice space as well. I don't like to be biased, but I'll be looking for some bullish PA on this pair next week for sure.
Opportunity to get in the current overall uptrend from May.
I like it D.
The Weekly agrees with you . .Res turning into Sup.
Check out those weekly PB (in yellow) they couldn't even break with a close above the 83.00 . .83.00 is strong. . .then Price breaks through it. .should act as strong Support.
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Jarroo, I just read Ghous' explanation on the psychology behind IPB but still I don't fully understand. Would you mind explaining it to me?
Looking at the IPB you just posted I'd intuitively say that bears are taking over. How come one should expect it to go up?
Did you read this post from ghous? .. . Intro and examples
Jarroo, I just read Ghous' explanation on the psychology behind IPB but still I don't fully understand. Would you mind explaining it to me?
If I may...
Actually Mike was kind enough to do a video for me at the PF where I asked him why big bars have a tendency to hold back on breaking hard and sustaining breaks and that got him going on order flow concepts including the logic behind IPBs.
What happens is, when a strong, say up trend...
You give me too much credit G. . .I guess it true that seeing situations develop time and time again, in real time, is different then back testing. . . logging the hours . .it has made a difference for me.
But a less then A+ setup better have an A++ story behind it (Thanks Mike). And your right g . .trade management can be the difference between a bad trade and a great trade even if the outcome is break even.
On the 2 Day IPB . . the other part of the story (that I didn't tell for some reason) was the PPZ level acting as a Support level that 2 day IPB was sitiing on.
Ghous is right, if the IPB formed at a swing Low (yellow) and was well supported (green) it would have been a much better and easy setup to take.
Jim
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Hello,
I have been trading for about two years. I have used multiple scalping strategies with pretty much break even results. I do not neccessarily believe it is because of the short term methods as the problem is usually somewhere between the keyboard and the chair.
Any way I have become so invested in short term methods I got in trouble at my day job. SO I have found it neccessary to budget less time to trading. I started searching for some daily trading methods and the trail of breadcrumbs has lead me here as well as another thread on a different...
You can trade on the lower time frames but you need to get your infromation from the high time frames . . .this thread can help you with that . .for sure.
Welcome eagle
Jim
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I have been reading this thread for a month now. The first thing that I do with my charts is plot Monthly, Weekly and Daily PPZ Levels. I am trying to do the same for EU.
I understand that PPZ is more of a range where it has acted as S/R in the past. But for simplicity, I have drawn them as single lines on my charts as of now.
Can someone please confirm whether the PPZ levels that I have mentioned for EU below are valid / good / bad?
Monthly - 1.01, 1.07, 1.19, 1.25
Weekly - 1.2875, 1.39.
Also 1.18 and 1.24. But...
PPZ levels are areas where Price flips, as James16 talks about frequently. It is a key level where we look for PA setups to develop.
"Price flips" means where areas of Support turn into areas of Resistance . .and vice versa. This turning point occurrs (usually) once Price breaks the given level of Support or Resistance.
Good areas to look for these levels are at the top and bottoms of past consolidation.
I don't see this with your 1.3900 level . . here's my EU chart and another example.
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Indeed, a plausible 'reason' why it ended up bullish Jaroo but I think had anyone set a buffer of as low as even 5 pips would have kept him away from a trade of the 4H BEOB. Tells us how important a buffer level is to confirm the bearishness/bullishness of a PA, doesn't it?
It sure does, ertorque . .a good buffer can validate a strong break and the setup itself. A good buffer would have kept you out of that one.
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Looks like it flipped at the monthly as shown by the close of the daily candle.
Heavy traffic area where it just got rejected by and I believe it may now come back to the monthly to retest it. If we are lucky, it may show us some bullish pa on the pullback. At last I see that this is how we look at it.
I see your chart on the Aud/Chf . .I like the .9500 level.
I would like to see some bullish PA at the .9500 . .its the previous bar High of the Weekly BUOB.
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I'm pretty sure most if not all of the advanced traders here do diffentiate reversal and retrace situations. But there's more to it. After reading here for a while I think it mostly breaks down to FTA (first trouble areas) and individual style, situations and estimation: some taking partial or full profit or moving SL or stacking up at FTA... That's why it's hard to give a clear answer, I guess.
FTAs are always important (I highly recommend you to have look into the J16 guest material)....
Damn good answer in my book, Hans . .
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Ok somebody PM me this question regarding Touch trades.
I was looking at your USDCAD trade , that touch trade. I understand that touch trade is based on confluence of many factors (eg: ppz, tl, fib).
But when you are first looking for touch trade, what is the first thing that will draw your attention that saying that "Ok, this thing has pontential for touch trade"?
Like when you are looking at the UC chart? What is the first thing that made you analyze the chart for touch trade?
I've been looking at your chart......
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
2- High TF - PPZ's placed on your charts
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ok the most important thing regarding PPZ's and Confluence zones is that when you place them and when you look at them later when waiting for price to hit them. DONT TREAT THEM LIKE BUY/SELL SIGNALS. Place them and observe how and what price does around them Yeah i know what are you thinking now but it requires observing charts for hours, practice and experience. (what does't require these to be successful???) But i will post some charts to give you a guideline or example.
Here are some charts...
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
3- Know what market are you trading in
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
So when i am analyzing these areas i also look out for the market condition i am trading in.Like is it ranging hard, trending hard or a little consolidation in between a trend etc.
GBP/USD: Now i can see that price was in a trend and now its in a rang and could break to either side. You can see a lot of blue rects and some horizontal S/R. Now Blue area's are PPZ's but i am not sure if would be able to place touch trades on them straight away but it depends if i get some confluence in 1h - 4h when...
[b]
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
4- Know what kind of trade you are just gonna take to assign a management plane to it
When you are just about to place a trade you need to recognize what kind of trade you are taking. If you are taking a CT u need to be careful and picky and need to do some thing on FTA to protect yourself may it be closing full postion, taking half out and rest to BE, Moving stop to BE or etc but make sure with CT's that you eliminate risk every time on an FTA.
Than if you are taking a trade with the trend you need to act again on FTA but this time...
Great posts nasir. I appreciate your time it took for you to put this together. . . .I know it was alot.
Very good information here.
Thanks again . .
Jim
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Thank you, sir. It's an honor to hear that from you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSolo
I'm pretty sure most if not all of the advanced traders here do diffentiate reversal and retrace situations. But there's more to it. After reading here for a while I think it mostly breaks down to FTA (first trouble areas) and individual style, situations and estimation: some taking partial or full profit or moving SL or stacking up at FTA... That's why it's hard to give a clear answer, I guess.
FTAs are always important (I highly recommend you to have look into the J16 guest material)....
Its a very good post Hans . . . I like this part and use it as well . .
"a clear, well respected FTA (PPZ) can turn into support/resistance and keep price from falling/rising back again and stop you out. So if you think you're on a big trending move depending on your personal style it may be a good option to put your SL under/above the FTA and/or take partial profit and so on. "
Jim
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I also thought about demoing this one. I think it's not an A trade: not the biggest bar (but engulfing three), no BRN and it is trading into the 365EMA on the daily and some PPZ. But the Fib confluence and the fact that it closed under the last high gives it some reputation. I'm not sure if it is a bad sign though that it has not made it to the monthly/weekly TL yet. With a real account I probably would not take it.
EDIT: 4h shows some resistance.
What's it showing you on the daily?
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You give me too much credit G. . .I guess it true that seeing situations develop time and time again, in real time, is different then back testing. . . logging the hours . .it has made a difference for me.
But a less then A+ setup better have an A++ story behind it (Thanks Mike). And your right g . .trade management can be the difference between a bad trade and a great trade even if the outcome is break even.
On the 2 Day IPB . . the other part of the story (that I didn't tell for some reason) was the PPZ level acting as a Support level...
Target hit G . . .as usual . .
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Well, so much for my theory about that monthly PPZ holding on EUR/GBP.
Back to the drawing board.
I guess that BEOB at the high combined with the MACD div was more than enough to see off that PPZ.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Maybe Jarroo can throw some light on as to why that weekly support broke?
When a level shows promise of acting as strong Support (in this case) it does not take away the strength of that level just because Price cut through it. It still a strong level.
Price consolidated on the Daily Eur/Gbp, Price broke through it (Resistance) upward . .the top of this consolidation should now (usually) act as strong Support.
It is these levels we want to pay attention to.
other example Chp/Jpy. . .
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CHFJPY....nice Fib confluence at both the 83 and 81.5 area. Nice space as well. I don't like to be biased, but I'll be looking for some bullish PA on this pair next week for sure.
Opportunity to get in the current overall uptrend from May.
Donkey's chart on the Chf/Jpy showing a strong level at the 83.00, which I agreed with.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
I like it D.
The Weekly agrees with you . .Res turning into Sup.
Check out those weekly PB (in yellow) they couldn't even break with a close above the 83.00 . .83.00 is strong. . .then Price breaks through it. .should act as strong Support.
The 83.00 failed as strong Support I now look to see this act as strong Resistance . .the level is still strong
Anyone see an opportunity here? . . we'll let PA show us the way.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
I'm sending you another present (actually only a semi present - without commentaries )
Use it, abuse it.... DON"T ... lose it...
Rac shows us this strong level of Resistance at 10680. An opportunity for some Bearish PA . .Price breaks through it and acts as Support . .the level is still strong even if it fails as strong Resistance.
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That is exactly what is confusing me, it didn't act as support.
I was asking if Jarroo new why it didn't act as support, I realize that price will not always behave as we expect at these areas so, I am really asking if, this was the exception rather than the rule. In other words, would Jarroo himself would have expected this area to act as support or if you would have expected that bullish bar, (a PB on some feeds) would break right through it?
It was the expectation not the rule. When ever I see Price break through a strong Resistance level my expectation is that level will now act as strong Support. If this expectation is not met . .it will revert back to Resistance.
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One thing I personally do to get rid of some of the noise is stick to my analysis on one timeframe only. Evaluate and work off that. Like James does. It makes taking in all the information easier in my eyes.
Best
Mike
Not only easier on the eyes but the levels (PPZs, targets, etc.) on the same time frame that the setup was presented are truer and more reliable.
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Jarroo, just great to hear you saying this, that's also my thinking proces concerning S/R levels. I've this nice example on the lower TF of G-U of today. Refering to attachement and the RNB @ 15800:
A: resistance
B: expected resistance flips to expected support
C: expected support flips to expected resistance
D: expected resistance flips to expected support
E: expected support is now indeed support
Yes that's it, xmz.
Now look for them on the higher time frames and you can add zeros to your pip count.
I would refer to the 1.5800 as just a RN . .BRNs would be 1.6000, 1.5500, 1.5000, 1.4500, etc.
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As I said in my preceding post spotting relevant trends for J16 trading is giving me a bit of a headache. Here is an example I found somehow challenging: monthly, weekly and daily EURJPY. Going through it step by step made it much clearer, still I would love to hear your guys opinion on my analysis. Thank you very much!
Great, thank you Ghous! All the best for your exam.
Have a nice day
Hans
Nice charts Hans . .
Consolidation areas are great to find these important PPZ level and how the tend to build off one another.
I like your bullish or bearish PA strategies on your charts. If either is presented, bullish or bearish PA, they would be well supported.
Currently the Eur/Jpy is a bit choppy. Using your Weekly charts should prove more telling when PA shows itself.
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Thanks Jarroo, I think a little bit of it is sinking into this thick Skull.
It will sink in.
We understand what PPZ levels are . .the next step (as I see them) is how the PPZ level is currently acting as when Price reaches them. .meaning Price approaches a strong PPZ level . .is the level acting as Support or Resistance??
If its acting as a Support level to Price, then Bullish PA is what we look for . .if Price breaks through that Support level . .than will it now act as Resistance?? Bearish PA would be the play.
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Hi PB. On 4h it looks to be making lower lows and higher highs. But I've been watching this pair at 1.3000 with interest for a while. What I believe I'm catching is what Jarroo mentions as support turning into resistance.
Take a look at the BEOB forming on weekly and the double top. On the daily the tiny little pin looking bar a few days ago caught my interest. However way too much consolidation on the small bar. Although there are several pockets of consolidation on the 4H to be concerned with, if we can push through this could be a decent trade....
The 1.2900 is a key level on the Monthly. What I mean by that is if Price can close below the 1.2900 this month we may see some more bearish movement to the downside . .the Weekly BEOB (if it closes that way) may be the poker tell.
Or if Price stay above the 1.2900 by month's end, we could be in for some more uptrend movement.
Makes sense to you, D.??
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EDIT:
Now, I understand the comment someone made the other day, about, "Just because price violates a strong PPZ it does not mean that the PPZ has become weak".
It is the strength or weakness of the buyers at a PPZ that determine this and not the PPZ.
LIGHT goes on in head.
"Hanging in Space bars" . . ???
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agree Sir.
though i never trade audnzd, i have a PPZ around 1.2800-1.3000, which i believe i plotted last year.
this area has been influential since March1985 (FXPro monthly)
i think there's a fair chance price will reach your FTA (your blue box, 1.2900).
if 1.3000 holds (turns into resistance) &price deteriorates further, i think it's possible for price to revisit 1.2300 - 1.2700 area.
having said that, until 1.2000 convincingly breaks, IMHO this pair is bullish.. & if so, i think we'll see 1.3000 as support next year.
Nice sChaos . . a good area to watch.
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You are both right in terms of how I use it. I see space means trade is more likely to get through and can then begin to define out the trouble areas that may worry me along the way down
Yes, I was using Space and Traffic interchangeably . . .Space:good . .Consolidation: bad.
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Space is just something that I cam up to explain a trade that has more Potential area to work with. it is not going to be the be all end all. I take trades that have zero "space" to work with that I will also consider potential runners. The idea is you can eyeball this space to get an idea where larger potential areas can come into play. Then use that to help formulate a trade plan. This is what I do at least.
I consider myself very picky(most of the time) that I try to let my trades, or reduce my stop in a logical way to run to these areas(space)...
Great chart Mike.
Here's another :
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Sure does. Thanks for all your input. Unfortunately, I only set the order on Oanda to remain open for 4 hours. There was about a 5 pip difference on my Oanda and FXPRO prices and I missed this entry by about 3 or 4 pips.
However, the positive is I made my analysis based on what I've learned here and over at the PF, made a plan, including keeping the order open for only 4H, and stuck to it. In this case, price did what I suspected it would, just about 2 hours late for me to catch one. There will be lots more opportunities, just gotta be patient...
Time limits and "next bar breaks" are good measures of momentium in a given setup. The 1st BEOB in blue, proved your stratgey correct and hit is target nicely. Gotta love those big bars.
The 2nd BUOB, had a different story in that it had another strong level that Price broke through. First, the 1.3000 after it consolidated there, and then the Weekly Lows in yellow.
Placing a stop loss above the 1.3000 and seeing how Price tests these other stop loss protected levels; previous bar Low(s) and Weekly Lows, could show how or if the momentum changed. Meaning if you had 2% above the 1.3000, you could have gotten out early if the previous bar
Low(s) or the Weekly Lows would not hold as Resistance. Or just be stopped out if the 1.3000 couldn't hold as Resistance.
Just saying that a time limit may not be enough to give Price a change to prove itself that these other levels will protect you by acting as Resistance.
Just some thoughts,
Jim
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Entry right after the 15m-PB close @ 8703, SL 5 pips above the 15m-PB high @ 8716. FTA would be of course the low of the 1H-BEOB @ 8683 where I will close 1/2 of my position. Final target would be the floorpivot S2 @ 8668, if price gets there, E-G would also have completed its ADR of +/- 80 pips. So my risk on this trade is only 13 pips and my reward would be 20 pips on the first 1/2 and 35 pips on my remaining position if everthing works out as planned. Well this is what happened: Price reached FTA quite easily and stalled there as expected,...
I think your over assessments of your FTAs or targets is what did you in. When we have a well supported setup all we are asking it to do is reach its target; previous High/Lows, PPZ level, or other strong obvious target like a BRN or even a RN. After that level is reached, we can manage our trade to allow more room to run, by covering our risk or protect ourselves from loss.
The Hourly BEOB was not at a swing High, it was at a swing Low. Not saying it a bad setup but they can be tricky, meaning they're more likely to retrace or reverse on you.
The 15min PB had its clear targets and reached them with no problems. The pip amounts are not that big on the 15 min TF, but if you put this setup on the weekly and the 1st target pipage would have been juicy.
Also, Have you read James16's "This is Critcal"? It has helped me greatly on how I approach certain setups.
TRID went where we expected. Where will MMM go next week?
-- Danny
I was wondering what became of that setup, Danny. .no surprises here.
Has anyone seen Mist Gun? There is your example of a PB at a true swing high before the fact . .thanks blue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Yes, that PB would be considered at a swing High. Why we like our PA at these swing Highs/Lows is because they provide the much needed Space or lack of traffic of previous bar Highs and Lows so they have room to run when they break.
So the deeper the swing point the better . . .like bluetrader's recent post as a great example . .notice the Space it provided.
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I like the setup although a stronger close below the .8700 would have been nice. The .8700 is currently acting as Support. Breaking this Support could turn into Resistance.
Your FTA is a bit agressive but I do like it as a final target.
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Too bad I signed off and crashed out before we all had a chance to play as Ghous, BT and I did earlier.
Next time.
Nice chart Pb. Keep looking for these Res to Sup/Sup to Res filp areas.
You can fine tune them by looking for clearer, more obvious levels of Support or Resistance. They're not only easier to find but they're stronger and reliable.
Let Price prove that the level is either Support or Resistance by touching and rejecting it many times.
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Sorry Pb . .my mistake . . .I meant, previous bar Low(s) on the BEOB.
Just like what you had on your chart. Actually its a PPZ level, like to see if Price can show some nice bearish PA from there. . .if it gets there.
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It's a bit of both. And I've been slack for a while, so here is a wall of text.
When people say stuff like 'TA shows all the news', they are oversimplifying it a bit (usually because either they are busy or they are just repeating something they read which was dumbed down to begin with by certain authors who should stick to crayons, but I digress).
A more accurate way of putting it is that price (and therefore PA) shows the market's discounted value of all known information. Those bits in italics are the important parts.
First...
This is probably the best, most concise explaination of News I've ever read.
Thanks Joel. Good stuff.
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Thanks for sharing that chart. It seems that the swing high in the chart that I posted was not big enough compared to the one you posted. Next time I will look for a bigger one just like on your chart.
Regards,
MG
Your PB was at shallow swing point compared to Danny's (bluetrader) and you can see the result of why these deeper swing points are important. Its all about the Space that swing points provide.
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AH now that is a topic I have been waiting to hear, the pullback that you guys wait for. And, I have seen you guys not take a nice looking PA bar simply because it did not pullback enough.
So, you are actually waiting for space to open up before the entry, rather like waiting in a car park for a lot to become vacant so it can then be filled again.
Got to run in 15 mins.
On it like a fly on honey pot. LoL
Not sure what you mean by this, Pb??
Do you mean a retest of a break of a given setup?
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Often, I will see say, a bearish or bullish PB, I think Johny is lost once said, he would have liked to see it pullback further maybe to a RN or a fibo.
Perhaps that is what I saw previously.
Got to run.
We'll be here.
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Due to a rate hike by RBA G-A took out the RNB's @ 16200/16100, price is currently finding resistance @ 16100. I've banked 190 pips on my remaining position and moved my SL towards 16110, if price gets to 16000 I'll also close my remaning position. Usually I'am looking for trades on the 1H-TF and in most cases I catch 20 to 80 pips per winning trade or lose 30 pips max. Jarroo then suggested to switch to a higher TF for a three digit profit. This time I've cought a big fish, nearly 100 pips on my first 1/2 and up till now 190 on my second 1/2 ........
I thought it was one of your hourly charts until I zoomed in . . very nice.
Higher time frames Rule!
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Looking for the Eur/Aud to act as Resistance after breaking through strong Support, I like to look at how it closes, meaning how strong it closes below the previous Support level, 1.4050ish. The higher the time frame that it closes below, the strong the break through.
The highest time frame that Price close below the 1.4050 . .actually it closes right at the 1.4050ish level on the Daily. . .a weak close. So the 1.4050ish level could act as either Support or Resistance. How the weekly will close should be telling.
I like the 1.4050ish level acting as Resistance since it did break through . . .I'll let PA show the way. I'm not ruling out the Daily PB to find Support and move back in to the consoilidation area. . . . we shall see.
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This post brings two questions to mind: 1. In your mind, how do you determine if the potential pip value is worth going after? Is there a set number of pips you like to look for on each timeframe to go after.
2. On this trade your target was small in comparison with the TF and size of the PB. Where would you set a SL?
I would like to see enough room to the first target or FTA, that would allow me to cover my risk. This monthly PB (on many feeds) looked good enough to hit the 1.000 but there was a previous bar Low to contend with, in blue. I knew I had to manage this trade around that level, I've been burned before thinking it was going to hit the near and obvious BRN, (the 1.000 in this case) and not consider the previous bar Highs and Lows.
On the Weekly and Monthly time frames every High and Low is a strong level . .don't believe me? . .draw a horizon line on every High and Low on the Monthly or Weekly TF and look at how Price reacts on the 4 hour or Daily time frames . .you see what I mean.
There was alot of momentum just prior to the break of the PB, (Bullish bars) so I didn't have much of a buffer about 5 pips. I was able to take 26 pips on the first half and free traded the second. . .ended as a net zero or break even trade. My initial S/L was 40 pipis but I would have probably ended sooner then the 40 if it didn't go my way. I will look for bullish PA at the Monthly Lows in green if price gets there.
The PB was small compared to the strong move down on this time frame but it looked so pretty I that I would give a hard break look. Much like that 2 Month PB, (in blue) a few months ago.
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I?m a little bit confused now:
I entered short on the weekly BEOB.
Now the Daily candle formed a DBLHC which is a bullish signal as i know.
Now my problem is what you guys think should i close the position or should i let it run?
I always favor the Higher time frame setup over the lower time frame setup. The tricky part is evaluating the quality of both setups on each time frame given. . .which one has a better story. If both stories are of high quality, than they both can work out . . meaning they hit they're targets.
The Weekly BEOB is at a swing High, good size, off PPZ level(s), at retracement levels, clear targets . .a good story. The fact that it didn't break hard tells me that the .8700 is very strong and more up movement is very possible . .but remember this is the Weekly TF and waiting to see how the next bar closes (the end of the week) will show is true preformance.
The Daily DBLHC . . . the swing low could be deeper, Off a strong level; .8700, not much space and a bit of traffic, with the uptrend. Price could be consolidating on the Daily.
Price could still break the Daily DBLHC . . hits its targets . .and then the Weekly BEOB hit its own target(s). It all comes down to the highest quality of the setup on the given time frame . . imo
Jim
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That is exactly why I don't like to enter on a plain break of the BEOB, very often price validates the BEOB by breaking it just slightly and then pulling back to some keylevel before (hopefully) breaking the BEOB again. If you entered at the first break then you are now probably facing drawdown, if price retraces all the way to the RNB @ 8800 before reversing then the question would be: can you withstand mentally such a drawdown ? Should I close my trade or should I stay in ? I personally don't like drawdown at all, it makes me nervous and when...
I agree with your post xmz. But it depends on the quailty of the Outside Bar and how close the traffic is to that OB. Meaning if the OB is at a nice swing High or Low, good size compared to previous bars, supportive confluences, etc., I will take that break to ride on that momentum.
But if the quailty is not the best, but good . .in consolidation or a lot of immediate traffic etc. . I will look for a retrace opportunity.
Much like the Eur/Gbp Daily DBLHC, previous bar High at the .8700.
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I agree with your post xmz. But it depends on the quailty of the Outside Bar and how close the traffic is to that OB. Meaning if the OB is at a nice swing High or Low, good size compared to previous bars, supportive confluences, etc., I will take that break to ride on that momentum.
But if the quailty is not the best, but good . .in consolidation or a lot of immediate traffic etc. . I will look for a retrace opportunity.
Much like the Eur/Gbp Daily DBLHC, previous bar High at the .8700.
I see, that you see, xmz . .. lol
Nice one .
Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Price gave me a bullish buy PA, not a standard James PA though, but a so called morning doji star, would have like to see a bigger bullish bar after the indecision bar. But good enough for me to enter with 1/2 of my position, tight stop 20 pips below the RNB @ 8700 from which I expect some protection.
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Keep in mind I'm a newbie still in demo, but here is something you can try. Chart those set-ups and mark the FTA. How often does price make it there? If you are getting to your FTA and were to take profit and bag 40 pips with 100 pip S/L you would take .4% (- spread) of your risk. If you risk 1% of account value and catch only 3 of these a month you would make 1.2% of account....not bad. Of course you have to take best set ups and have a high win rate.
I tried this for a couple of months and marked a first, second, and third trouble area. I hit...
Great post D. Your on the right track.
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Price behaved exactly as anticipated, pulled back to RNB @ 8700, validated the daily DBLHC and is now heading to RNB @ 8800. The following question is now: is the FTA @ 8800 also the final target of the daily DBLHC ? If price respects RNB @ 8800 as resistance then this will also complete the pullback of the weekly BEOB and we might see price take another attempt to break the weekly BEOB. But first lets see how price reacts @ 8800.
Very good questions xmz. . . we shall see.
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Thank you Jarroo. The above two statements provides me some clues
When do I look for retracements and when not ?
Currently I am looking for retracements for all the good/great looking bars.
Entering on retracement point has following benefits
1) position size can be bigger by keeping the SL on the other side of the bar
2) if PA breaks (assuming it did not break before retacement), addttional pips can be made all the way upto FTA (at least)
3) if it even did not break but at least reached the low/high of the bar (in the direction of the trade),...
This is true about a losing trade . .that's why you what a clear retracement level . .previous bar High/Low at a PPZ or BRN, etc. And also a tight stop loss 20-30 pips, it is either going to be right or not. The benefits you mentioned are worth the risk s to me. Being picky with the good/great looking bars will make the difference . .
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So, you find your SL area 1st and then see if your FTA covers your risk, close to a 1:1 RR?
So you don't really have a set limit you like to go after on each TF?
Do you drop down to lower TFs to determine when to bail?
Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Another question on MM. If you always risk 2% of your account, a 20 pip loss is the same as a 100 pip loss, correct? So when you tighten your SL do you also reduce your risk level?
So, you find your SL area 1st and then see if your FTA covers your risk, close to a 1:1 RR?
This is a different style of trade that I do take on occasion, it is based on PA. I look for a situation that a hard break will take place with a clear target. I may wait until the target is hit or make my S/L adjustment before then. My initial S/L is usually 20 to 30 pips.
I said initially 40 pips S/L but would probably get out before that.
On this trade, it would probably would have been 30 pips, just below the Daily Low, in purple.
As soon as my target was hit, I adjusted my S/L to a free trade, (see DIBS trade management).
I had 1% in 40 pips. I will use 2% on trades like this sometimes, but usually just 1%. If this trade took off and the trend changed to an uptrend . .I would have looked to add to this position.
The blue line is what I want to see Price do and adjust my S/L accordingly. Anything short of that and I'm out.
So you don't really have a set limit you like to go after on each TF?
No set limit. I let the charts present the setup and the targets which will differ on each TF.
Do you drop down to lower TFs to determine when to bail?
I do drop down to lower TFs only to see how Price is reacting to the Higher TF setup: breakout, targets, etc. The higher TF S/L level would not change.
Sorry I missed your post, spookie. Let me know if I answered your questions.
Jim
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Hey Jarroo, don't know the one you mentioned, but I heard a similar one.
Dollar and Cable sitting in the bar, drinking beer. Suddenly, enchantress Euro enters the bar with her red sexy dress. Cable quickly stands up, goes after her, but Dollar quickly calls out:
"Be careful, don't get the inflation"
Also took a trade this week.
H4 E/U BUOVB
What I didn't like was size of second bar (could be bigger) and I saw one more trouble area closer than my FTA.
Good one . . lol
Here's a good example of what Mike talks about have a great story behind a setup.
I agree albinas, that the BUOB could have been bigger, but I like your previous bar high entry. A consolidation breakout, in yellow, wouldn't have been a bad play either.
You can see that this wedge breakout pullback formation around the 1.4000 BRN help support this trade.
Everyone likes a good story ..
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Closed my remaining position on the E-G, price broke a 1H-PB @ RNB 8800, I've banked another 81 pip. Total profit: 95 + 81 = 176 pips If price breaks the previous swing low @ 8750-ish then the short term uptrend breaks and price will probably revisit the RNB @ 8700. If 8750 holds as support then the short term uptrend stays intact and price will probably take another shot at the 8800, lets see how this plays out.
Nicely done, xmz .. .
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If you see a good set-up, you will set your Order 10/15/20 pips whatever beyond the break of the set-up. Then you set your stop loss to 30/40 pips (enough room so that if it moves back as it often does, it still doesn't stop you out) then you take your first half off at break even and the second half off later/gets stopped out.
This is really fascinating. I focus so much on being right, that I forget the purpose is to make money, not to be right.
You might get stopped out more often than me, but often your...
For me, its all about controlling your risk. I will have alot of breakeven trades or net zero trades and even small losses. . .but I'm OK with that. It usually tells me to be more picky with me setups, which all of us can relate to.
Being picky with your setups and eliminating or reducing your risk . .and the profits will come. . .that's why we're here . .right tj?
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What would your stop loss be in this situation were you enter on the break would you stop loss be 30-40 pips or a full bar loss ?
Are asking on a High quality, A++ setup situation? I will usuaully give more leeway to the stop loss placement. But if it breaks hard and hits my targets I'll move to break even or reduce my risk. I never take a full bar loss.
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Hi Jarroo. What do you think of GJ. Does this have a rac look to you?
Trendline, RN 132, PPZ, 50 retrace confluence. Touch of trendline at 132 and price likely to move south?
Also 61.8 fib near 132 from most recent swing high.
Absolutely D.
If Price doesn't find Resistance at the 132.00, look for it to find Support, especially if it doesn't give much of a bounce down, meaning a small bounce down would tell me that we're heading upward . .probably to the 135.00.
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I understand you never take a full bar loss but do you ever take a full risk loss?
Do you ever leave your initial stop until it eventually gets hit?
Thanks
Nos
Sure I'll take a full risk loss . .just this week I was looking to take another long from the 1.4050 for the 3rd time when . .Boom . .I was out for a 20 pip loss.
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I see. Although this is a different trading approach (no PA confirmation, I guess)
Putting it in a slightly different way, do you ever set your initial SL above/below the PA bar, despite trailing it after the trade is triggered?
No, I usually don't put my S/l above or below a given High quality setup, probably more in line with how James16 trades PA. Looking for that high momentum push.
Now I will place my stop above or below a Outsifde bar when I take a retracement entry, previous bar high or low . .does that count?
I will use the stop loss placement that ghous recommends on IPBs.
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Sorry to butt in guys, just wanted an opinion on a a pin i took. (Purple arrow)
I took it because it had confluence; with the 1.40000, a 50% fib and strong PPZ providing support. My stop loss was just below the 1.4 mark and the 1st take profit area was the high of the last bar. Here, the plan was to move SL to break even and take 50% of the position off.
Price fell shy of the TP by 10 pips then took out my stop. Now since i always take partial profit, the full value loss cancelled out my last 3 successful trades.
So i guess my question...
That PB hit its target dead on, previous bar Highs and Lows are still what we look for even in consolidation.
What consolidation provides are clear levels of Supprt and Resistance at the borders on these ranging areas. James16 even talks about how he likes trading PA within these defined levels of consolidation because .. well . .they're so defined. Clear and well defined levels means strength to me.
The main target(s) would be the 1.4200 or the Highest highs of the consolidation. But the previous Highs/Lows should not be ignored and should be used in your trade management.
I don't think is was a bad PB, good size. If it closed more bullish, meaning the close was higher than the open, which would have been above the 1.4050 it would have been a no brainer.
Jim
PS: Welcome . .btw . .dcart
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I think your PB actually hit the FTA and did what was expected of it.
Maybe a look at the H4 will show you the area more clearly.
I agree Pb, the PB hit where we would expect it would.
I think your zoomed out Daily chart shows this level more clearly than your 4 hour chart. As you may know, the true targets are best seen on the same TF that the setup was presented on.
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Hi guys
Anyone take this PB on NZDCHF?
Daily PB off PPZ around 0.7650 , got fib confluence.
There's also PB on 4H but with higher low. Seems price has to break below 0.7600 (RN) first though. Other than that i see no supporting factor.
What do you think guys? Is it worth taking?
Not bad, Be Cool. The size is a bit small compared to previous bar and the uptrend is still pretty strong. I agree if the PB's close was below the .7600 it would have looked better, stronger. Previous bar Low looks like a good target . .demo it and see how it works out.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Tell me should I be consentrating more on the quality of the setup and not so much on the SL?
Yes, absolutely . .concentrating of high quality setups will make the S/L an after thought . . well almost . .lol Especially if your going for that first target.
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Originally Posted by spookie94
this goes back to my question: Whats the difference between a full bar loss and a full risk loss if both are based on the same risk percentage? Isn't one just more pips than the other but the $ loss is equal.
Yes the risk percentage is the same whether its 30 pips or 100 pips.
Remember this discussion started on a different style of trade that I take on occasion. Mainly looking for a hard, robust break on a given setup. I expect this setup to break with no draw down so if any occurrs I begin to question my selection of the setup.
I don't trade all setups this way.
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Originally Posted by spookie94
Is this also true with setting your SL? Man I'm bugging the hell out of you tonight
Yes the same TF that the setup was presented goes for PPZ levels, Confluences, Targets, S/L, etc.
No bother at all, spook-man.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Thanks Jaroo
So in your opinion the 0.7600 level is a stronger PPZ than 0.7650? I am new to this - still learning to plot PPZ correctly. Maybe if you could give a few tips how to draw PPZ correctly
Pb's post of the James16 video on PPZ levels is very good. Also search out this thread by using the "Serach this Thread" tool and you'll find alot of discussions and examples.
I like using the Weekly TF to find the obvious and clear PPZ levels. On the Nzd/Chf Weekly, the .7600 it is soooo obvious and clear it jumps out at you. (Weekly chart)
Looks like your Daily PB hit its target, previous bar Low . . You can see why it did . .it was off the .7600 Weekly/Daily PPZ level. Also if the PB closed below the .7600 would have been a stronger setup. You see why right? It would have been below the .7600.
Also check out this link to this post and Chart. I believe this is the main focus of what James16 teaches . .you'll hear him mention this in his PPZ level guest video.
Awesome, thanks. As long as im on the right track. Only been at it for 6 months so im still trying to make my trading plan as solid as possible.
I knew it wasnt an 'A' trade, but it did jump out at me since it was at the bottom of a tight range. Also, the fact that there was a massive downtrend on the monthly might not have helped, although i thought i could try it since momentum had slowed on the weekly and was beginning to range.
PA setups in consolidation can be very predictable when they are well defined. Maybe its because the market is usually in a consolidation period 70% of the time. . .lol
Good eye that it stood out to you . . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Sometimes the way price moves may look random, but actually it is not, those consolidation areas are there for a reason, we just have to work out why and where and learn to utilize consolidation, rather than hate it, which most new traders do. Consolidation is telling us a story which we have to think about, if we can work out the story we can then, have a very good idea of where price is likely to go. Look at james16, Mike, Jarroo, Ghous, SC & other seniors of J16. These guys sometimes stay in a...
Hey... Thanks Pb . ..
It really can be that simple . .
Where Support turns into Resistance once Price breaks through it and closes below or
Where Resistance turns into Support once Price breaks through it and closes above. . .then using PA . .either bullish (at Support) or bearish (at Resistance).
One thing that I should have shown that's important . . where Price closes as it relates to these levels. Which you showed on your #YMZ0 Daily chart. I have updated the XAG/USD example chart.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Well it didn't quite make 132.00. It made it to 131.999 on my feed, and the last bar closed about 55 pips lower. Too bad this wasn't Wednesday, I would've like to have seen the reaction at this area earlier in the week. The last push down of the last 4H candle of the week could have definitely been Friday profit taking.
lol . . yeah it didn't quite make it. .. but that's a hit in my book. These confluenced levels are usually more of a zone or area of about 20 -30 pips especially on the Gbp/Jpy. But you can get pretty close when they're at a RN or BRN, obviously.
We expected a reaction at this level and got it, but we have some big bullish bars on the Daily and Weekly so Price will test the metal of this level, 132.00. A nice break through and close above it, should find some Support. Or, of course, some strong looking bearish PA to confirm Resistance and head back down.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.