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james16 Chart Thread
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Oct 5, 2010 9:07am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by premierpip
so it's how many pips between entry price and low of the bar?
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Yep how many pips b/w your entry or stop
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Oct 5, 2010 9:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
The breakout trade on the E-G would that be a valid trade according to your requirements concerning breakout trades ? Not to much room measured in pips to the top of the flag pattern.
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Hey Zhang
No for me this would be to small of a pattern on the 15min. It actually becomes a better size pattern on the 5m, which would mean I would look for price action on the 1m for a pullback(which I obviously don't do). But there was funny enough. But the concepts are there
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Oct 5, 2010 9:31am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billm
Hi Mike, do you manually scan all your charts looking for PA then checking confluence, BRN, PPZ etc, or do you scan the charts for PPZ / BRN and then check f there is PA forming ?
Secondly, do you do this manually every 4 hrs ? (assuming you don't check 1hr for setups)...
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Hey Bill
I do both, I have all my charts open and laid out and move the ones over that are of more interest(areas/patterns/etc). But I also browse them every 4hrs and 1hr for possible PA. So I am looking for locations/areas/patterns mostly, but am also open if jump out PA jumps out. Then I scan my charts once a day right before the close for possible daily plays(same once a week for weekly).
For me the 4hr pin would have had to been of 9500 to warrant a trade intraday. So for example I might plot something like this and keep it up on my monitors. What does this show us? Consolidation pattern around a big round number of 80. Means an opportunity may be present soon
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Oct 5, 2010 5:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geomink
Eur/Chf Daily
Sold the break of the BEOB (10 pips)
Loss 110 pips by now
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Hey Geo
We want more then just the bar to trade. We want to figure out the story behind these bars, it makes it much easier from my viewpoint
Here was a post and chart I made yesterday
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Hey Salva
I agree not a whole bunch to go off. There is a logical FTA though(especially if price can close under 1.33). I wouldn't trade it as I would have wanted a touch of the BRN 1.35 personally.
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Oct 5, 2010 8:30pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Hey Mike, any thoughts about Loonie, we might see a BEOB break out of a consolidation. I would then like to see a pullback to range support/daily PPZ/RNB @ 10200 to hold as resistance.
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Hey Zhang
IMO the pullback(the good one) occurred today on the 1hr I missed. I wouldn't want to get too involved now based off daily and missing that it is pretty choppy. Seekinglight put this one up and I didn't even see it
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Oct 5, 2010 11:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
trying to figure out what you saw to place the buy? Was there PA or did you go off where S/R, trendline and MA meet?
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Those are touch trades Spookie, Search Jim's recent attachments for more info on those plays
Best
Mike
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Oct 5, 2010 11:27pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
thats what I thought, just wanted some confirmation. While your here, what your take on this one?
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Hey Spookie
A very very trafficky pinbar
Wouldn't be surprised to see it just fall on down, but it's in a winding up sideways market so easy pass for me personally
Mike
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Oct 6, 2010 12:05am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melvin87
Hi Mike,
Just to clarify. For the EUR/CHF BEOB, seeing that it closed below the 1.33, is the 1.33 where we would look for confluence? Or is it the top of the BEOB?
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Hey Melvin
When I made this post it was prior to the day closing and a few people were asking my opinion on it. I said if it can close under the 1.33 then the first trouble area is very likely since then price doesn't have to fight through that 1.33. I am always looking for price bars to close above/below near by round numbers. Again this eur/chf trade IMO had very little going for it, but we can still gauge very high probability First trouble areas.
Best
Mike
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Oct 6, 2010 9:44am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bee24
I had two consecutive positive months, Oct and Nov 09, then December was not profitable. I started again in Jan 10, had 3 consecutive positive months. Then I went live, made 1,7k? in 2 weeks, only to blow my account 2 weeks later due to overtrading.
So yes, it's demo time again.
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Bee this worries me greatly b/c with proper MM it should take a TON of trades and bad ones in a row. Please message me if you need info on how to properly use MM. You may already and emotions took over but I have to jump in cause I worry greatly about that
Best
Mike
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Oct 6, 2010 1:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by john225
Yes i need information about MM if you could help me it would be nice ;-)
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http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...light=beginner
specifically posts 18-33
This should become the easiest aspect of your trading
Best
Mike
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Oct 6, 2010 2:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdl
Here are results for my first three months of demo trading J16 price action, results that are pleasantly different than my "one step forward, two steps back" trading history.
July...
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Way to go JD!
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Oct 6, 2010 4:47pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forex0908
Hi PinBar,
I am new to this thread. Have been following this for the past 1 week. Can you please tell me what is FTA in the screenshot attached? To me, FTA seems like a level which turns from support to resistance or vice-versa. Also, what do you guys mean by PPZ?
Thanks
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Hey Forex welcome to the thread
A FTA can be anything from a minor ppz, previous high/low, to a round number. It is the first area that price can stall at.
Here is some info on PPZ(which stands for Price Pivot Zone, which is a flip of support and resistance)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=14084
Best
Mike
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Oct 6, 2010 4:48pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melvin87
Hey guys,
Was looking at the EUR/USD and saw a break above the 1.38 and waited for a retracement back to that level for a bullish PA signal. Would you guys consider the pin that has formed on the H4 below a valid bullish signal?
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It is a strong indication that price wants to go higher , yes
Best
Mike
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Oct 6, 2010 4:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Majestic12
Hi everyone
Entered this today. Stop at BE. I'm wondering whether to take profit or hang on to it and see what happens when the aussie news hits tonight - whats the j16 take on this. Interested to hear anyones thoughts and what experienced traders normally do in this situation when big news is coming.
Thanks.
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Hey Majestic
There is no one and only answer but getting to b/e at this point sounds good. You could of course flat take profit or even trail under bar lows if you want to give it more room. I like that one for taking full profit at that first area, that is how I would be comfortable with that type of trade personally. All are viable options though
Best
Mike
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Oct 6, 2010 4:52pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
I had been reading the thread for a long while and still bilding up on the knowledge base. if some one could display the daily Emini and elobrate on the PA between 25 august and 31 august , 3 bars low day apart were the same low , will be appreciated thanks.
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Hey Meno
There was a BUOB in that time span, that went to where we might expect it to stall(blue box). If one held it since it was off the 10k level(big level) it would have been close if your stop got hit(nearly where those 3 lows you are speaking of) before the much stronger move higher
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Oct 6, 2010 11:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fap103
Can anyone direct me to a post or thread that list all of the acronyms mentioned in all of these post in the James16 Forum?
Thanks.
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here ya go fap this is a large majority of them
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=56751
best
mike
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Oct 6, 2010 11:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dv84
Hey everyone whats up =-]
I have been trading live for some time now and have been doing good. Why have i been doing good? Well i can definitely say that it is because of james16 and the senior and ever the new guys(cause they always ask questions that are in a way in the back of your head but you just don't fell like asking). Before i went live i was lucky enough to demo for a a year and a half then start live. On demo i was doing great you know........ i was constantly changing my system around via the trading systems category always updating...
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Awesome DV that is great to hear about your success !
I can only speak for me but I personally check my charts pretty methodically at the end of the hour when I am around, or every 4hrs, end of the day, end of the week. Since I keep things simple if I am checking a 1hr chart everything I do is pretty much in the context of that hour chart. I tend to move charts on my screens(I use 3) to the side closest to me that are most on my radar. For breakouts I have my patterns drawn so they are easily seen. I keep all the pairs in boxes on each monitor so I can see them all at glance(the ones I trade intraday). I think it just becomes routine what is comfortable and you don't even think about it at a certain point
Continued success and thanks for sharing
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 12:27am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
So do you use 1 screen for daily, 1 for 4H, and 1 for 1hr. Or are all screens dedicated to what ever timeframe your looking at then? Maybe I should start trading off my TV (just to add a bigger 2nd screen)?????
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I use 3 monitors for my charts. They are kept all on the 4hr mainly. I will use my other computer that has two monitors and put up hourlies I am wathcing or lower timeframes. At the end of the day I open one single chart to look at dailies and go through my market watch dragging each pair on till i am done.
Best
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 12:40am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
5 monitors, currently?
u content with that or u have plans of adding some more?
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Nope doubt it, 5 is just about right for me. 3 for my charts 2 too work on.
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 8:55am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by onlydragon
sure kk007 but there is only one sort of support, one sort of resistance , one sort of pin bar....
we are one solidarity group right ? there is no kind of one member is long euro and other is short it( remember we are all seeing on daily, weekly pin bar ....)
or you guys are conflict or jame's method is .....why everyone does not ask james one live call and clear the difference ...
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This is so far from the truth and exactly what we all spend so much time focusing on. If you spent some time just reading what was in here you might learn something and be on a path too success rather/ This isn't like every system you probably trade where you buy when the red line crosses the blue. There are a lot of subtleties. It isn't about a pinbar. Check out post 1 and give it a shot spend 6 months, actually reading and learning.
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Oct 7, 2010 9:01am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Maybe it's just me but I adore the thought of only dragon struggling for attention if we could just leave him saying what he wants with no response (until he swings the axe on his own toes and get's kicked out of FF for good)
poking us might probably be the only thing this 12 year old's looking for...
g.
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I wish him luck, maybe he can spend some time reading all the information that has been laid out here. Even when no one is looking(since he has already dug himself deep). Cause I know he hasn't even bothered to read more then a post with the comments he has made. Onlydragon just like everyone else that comes here, read and show respect and I bet you will learn a thing or two from where you have spent most of your trading life
Back to trading
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 9:03am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
But I don't think he will spend any time reading anything, he just want some attention. I followed a few post of his, he just saying bs stuff and not really able to think in any constructive way... there are some people like that, I don't know what motivates them... some kind of unsatisfaction with life in general or something... 
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I know, but hey maybe one post will click and he will give it a shot. Then like we always do we will help the new traders. I guess I am feeling in an extra good mood after my yankees taking game 1 .
OK OK I promise back to trading now
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Oct 7, 2010 9:10am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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still watching this overhead former support , looking for solid PA here
If we fall back into the channel then i will no longer watch topside, but only the 80.00 mark
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Oct 7, 2010 9:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Here is one for OD, maybe this will set him on a deeper path but if not I am sure someone else will learn
A good place to start for those of you that are new are understanding everything is NOT created equal that we must spend a lot of time understanding the tendencies of different situations and bars(that make sense to you, remember a bar I like may not be a bar you like but if you have tested your concept then I am all for it).
Here is a simple chart I pulled up 4 pinbars within a short period b/c they give us 4 great examples
1. Bar 1. Here is the pinbar killer of peoples trading. They will find this thread, read a few posts on a pinbar and trade a bar like this. Now if you spend 3-4 months these bars will quickly not be recognized so much as a pin, but just a slight stall. Trend is clearly UP, then price clearly just stalls for the day. Do you want to fight the current uptrend with this bar? If so, I think it is nuts. We want a nice long tail.
2. Bar 2. Ahhhh, now we should all say yeah that is a pitbull pinbar. Look at the huge size vs the current uptrend. This screams sell. Plot the 1200 big round number(little bit more confluence now), then look for divergence(it is there(a bit more). Here is one alone where a huge pibnar at a swing high. Clearly there is a difference b/w bar 1 and bar 2. Which one do you want to trade? I know which I did.
3. Bar 3. Another one that gets people into trouble. Price drops like a rock and it stalls but the stalling creates a small pinbar. THink is this true buying? Or is this just some profit taking off this huge move. Now price did move higher but is this really a bar we want to get involved in?
4. Bar 4. The second best of the bars, but still one I caution a newer PA trader to take. You have to understand trouble areas on these. You have a pullback of the larger bearish move, and form a decent size pinbar. Plot the Big round number of 1250 and it begins to look more juicy. Not a lot of space so we NEED to be aware of the trouble areas and protect ourselves if we want to take these.
So we have 1 great pinbar, 1 ok pinbar, and 2 I would never ever touch
I now created another chart showing FTA with ALL 3 bars and you can all do this too. The blue boxes are where price is likely to have trouble on bars 1, 3, and 4. I left bar 2 out b/c it is huge
Maybe this helps OD, maybe it helps someone else. Either way if it helps one person I will be happy
Best
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 9:28am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
Now that PPZ looks broken I suppose we would be waiting a move bast the last high to get in long ? Or leave it say another day and see what the price wants to do , like go up a while come back to test it kinda set up ?
Thanks !!!
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Hey Meno
If the support holds you can technically buy a new high, I have sometimes. But most of the time I prefer to wait for Price action where we are now. So I am watching for that. I still like to be picky b/c enough of these setups come up that you can be
Best
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 9:42am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Hey Mike,
Question: are you looking for PA that confirms support on the same TF where you observed the breakout or do you zoom into a lower TF looking for PA. You posted a chart of the 4H-TF of A-Y, so I assume you're looking for PA on the 4H-TF ? Also, say you would find a solid PA on the 15m-TF first, would you then consider this a weaker confirmation that former resistance is now acting as support, compared to a PA on the 4H-TF ?
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I usually go one timeframe lower. If the pattern is a 4hr, I drop to 1hr
If the pattern is a daily, I drop to 4hr
But I still watch the same timeframe as well.
Best
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 9:45am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Thanks Mike a very helpful post. I was thinking a lot. This is sometimes hard to me - I mean idetifying if the size is OK or it is small... yes like bar #1 it is no doubt a small one, but many times I would look at the bar like #2 and still hesitate...
So I was thinking to make this process more objective, would that be valid to compare the size of a possible setup bar to say the biggest bar or better yet an average of some number of bars in a previous trend, so if the size is not less than it then I shoot?
At the end of each week I go...
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Hey Ad
Of course it is always more difficult in real time, this is where you have to spend time and time and more time. But I see your chart and bar and reminds me of bar #1 I posted. It doesn't JUMP out at you. As you get good at this you will see the times when you can take bars that aren't jump out great b/c you have seen it before and you know it works more then it doesn't. But if you are struggling then you shouldn't be taking a bar like that one. Sure it might work out, but is it worth it? The bar on your chart that jumps out the most is the one at the high of the 13 mark. See the difference alone b/w that bar and your bar? As for comparing them in sizes. Some people will look at the exact range numbers etc. I personally just look visually. I think everything is comparable to what is around it. The gold one should jump out at you. If it doesn't walk away from your charts and come back again and just look at what bars jump out.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 9:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
Hey Mike I love the way you think buddy .. You are one hell of a FOX 2....
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hahaha you cracked me up meno 
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Oct 7, 2010 10:02am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hitchhiker
Is it worth a shot Mike...or too risky?
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Depends on how you define risky. For me it doesn't fit in line with what I do. I am watching for solid PA, before picking the top here. But great area to watch.
Best
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 11:35am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 666Doom
Hi Guys,
I know you all talk about location location location.
I found a pin bar looking bar on 1 hr chart,on EJ had a nose of 13 pips or so.
I believed it was good for 1 hour chart.
I checked connfluence found a lot of 50 fib ret and 61.8 ib ret and 150 ema on 1 hr chart all lining up.
So i decided i give it a try on demo.
The result was failed.
I don't damn understand the reason for failure,is it because i was fighting against bearish trend in daily today.
I did take a touch trade on EJ earlier this day it worked wonders made 36 pips.
Entered...
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Hey Doom
Read this post from me today before looking at my answer below. Tell me if you can see which number you fit in on that post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=76747
Answer below check post first please
Yes you are fighting HUGE bear bars, and trying to pick the bottom with a very tiny pin. Notice a few things the bearish close on the pin, showing like it is just "hanging" on there. I have talked about this concept where you think of the close like someone hanging off the edge of a cliff. This one has a few fingers on the ledge, where as if it closed very bullish it is like having two strong hands holding on. Also notice the next bar never broke the high. Remember a pin is not valid till that high breaks thus this was never a valid pin. These little nuances will keep you out of a LOT of bad trades. Trust me from experience
Hope this helps
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 11:49am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 666Doom
Thanks Mike,
I am reading your post again and again.
I think i need to re-evaluate taking those kind of entries.
Okay,would you have taken a pin there,if it was big enough nose,or on a 4 hr chart.
Regards
Taz
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Hey Taz
Not me personally, as price is under the 115 so you are trading back heavy into that area which makes it tough. When you see pressure to one side I wait for something strong. What happens is we see a big move, think oh this has to retrace a bit, jump in on the close, and it drops lower. Then we see another pin and see this time it has to, and we just dig such a hole. I know trust me. Some tips I try for myself. Don't get fixated on one pair, don't get fixated on one type of bias. This is why I really worry about you new guys/gals on the 1hr and lower and why Jim stresses the higher. It will give you time to think and rationalize these situations.
I can almost guess exactly what happened there. (and this is not to pick on you I swear so many reading this are going to shake their heads).
You see movement across the markets. Volatility is high, palms sweat a bit, things are getting excited. You are correct keep note here we like volatility. You grab a pair that looks like it could be forming a pin. You see price is moving like crazy and think i don't want to miss that move back up. The bar closes, you know its not the greatest but convince yourself(plus you say I gotta hurry and buy things are moving quick). Next thing you know you are buying before the pin broke, you are stuck market continues lower with the stronger bearish bars. Now the frustration sinks in and we repeat that above process.
Again this is not to pick on you, I promise we all know this feeling and we are only relating the best way to get through that feeling. If you tighten up your entrys/bars/locations you will not even allow this to happen b/c you are waiting for that bar/location that screams at you. You will have losses but you will accept them a lot easier.
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 11:54am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Another thing I wanted to add. And again this is how I look at things.
If I gave you 3 trades for the entire month. I said Doom after those 3 you can not trade under any circumstances till the next month. Would you waste a bullet on that trade? Now go back over your trades you have taken and ask yourself that question. Better yet, try that. 3-5 trades and you close up for the month. Your outlook is going to change greatly. Once you can see what being profitable is, even a slight amount, you won't want to put yourself in as many bad situations.
I hope you don't mind me spring-boarding on you Doom, these can be generalizations too
Thanks
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 3:29pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geomink
Buy the break of the strong congestion
20 pips over the break
fast loss 100 pips
more: price forming an opposit pin
5th trade in loss in a row
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Geo why did you just buy the break? Why not wait for price action like we talked about in here? If you just buy a pure break you could have had plenty of time to take profit or get to b/e too.
Just trying to ask these questions so you ask them. Did you see my posts on the aud/jpy?
Best
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 5:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
In this business it always pay to be extremely deviot minded and be aware of the traps this is why we need to wait for longer time period to show that break was a valid break. But if you were to look at small time frame and lets say 5 min chart you ll find you had plenty of time to make 30 or so pips or atleast break even ... Just be aware of the bull or bear traps and integrate this thought to your trading in whatever the time frame is ... Just my two cents Thanks ...
Is that right mike?
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Yep I don't play pure breakouts (buy stop above consolidation) often. I do it when we have a specific set of conditions met. And even when I play those generally I am quick to take profit or move my stop up.
Best
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 5:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mr.pipos
Hey quys this is my first post in FF,
I read almost everything in this thread, (it took me over 6 weeks) and I want to thank you all for sharing your knowledge and experience, specially J16 and the V+ members! I appreciate a lot your work! You guys are really great!
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Welcome Pipos, you are a fast reader! 
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Oct 7, 2010 5:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jcpfx
I haven't posted for awhile, but thought of this thread as I saw this PB forming at a nice BRN on the daily. Worth keeping an eye on in my opinion.
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Like many of you I was keen on some of the closes today but most things fell way short on my feed. The eur/usd closed as a neutral bar. Open and close near middle of the bar with equal length wicks. I did look at this as true selling just indecision personally
Best
Mike
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Oct 7, 2010 9:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
Silver is showing some signs at last. It finally moved almost 1$ in 1 day and managed to close below 22.50. What do you think guys?
Attachment 557627
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I sold this for a quick hit as well looking for 22.20
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Oct 7, 2010 10:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
Mike and Jim 
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def not me LOL although that would be extra kicker. I have no idea either. I still believe Jim is an ex yankees fan at heart and will come clean to me about that one day 
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Oct 7, 2010 10:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
so Mike, one more question, once the PA is formed, do you take the trade in a conventional way -- like Buy/sell - above/below the bar.. SL is on the other side of the bar.
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yep I treat it like every other PA bar. I am not fancy. I plain suck at being fancy at this point in my trading. So I keep it simple for the most part. I like to think it keeps me level headed for the most part
Best
Mike
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Oct 8, 2010 9:13am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lord
Silver is showing some signs at last. It finally moved almost 1$ in 1 day and managed to close below 22.50. What do you think guys?
Attachment 557627
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I closed for a small loss prior to NFP, hope you are being careful here.
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Oct 8, 2010 9:39am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grahamec
Hope someone can help, I read a post yesterday I think that was recommended for newbies and it said specifically take note of posts 18 to 33
Well I can not find it anywhere after an electric cut switched the comp off.
Any body able to direct me to the post please
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here you go bud
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=76632
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Oct 8, 2010 9:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
I am just curious to see what some of you guys dow in sitations where you just miss gettign out.
Attachment 558009
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If it hits my take profit area, but comes back for spread or whatever reason, I am out at b/e. Since technically the trade played out just as you saw it(of course that isn't a recommendation for your trade). But I have dealt with that situation , still do 
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Oct 8, 2010 11:10am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 666Doom
Hey Mike,
I saw a great Pinbar on Aud/Cad.
So what do you say bout this.
Would you call this Pitbull pinbar,if yes i believe my stars are bright,cauz i just learned what a good bull pin bar is.lol
Need your opinion.
Regards
Taz
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Hey Taz
My issue with that bar is the tail i would want longer. Notice the body of the bar(open to the close) is about the same size. But you are getting there. Your target is PERFECT though
Best
Mike
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Oct 8, 2010 11:25am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
Your silver chart ! Where the swing took place on hour chart is the bottom of the price channell. I feel that this market is saying to me I had enough extremism for a while and I am due for a reversal. That s how I read yesterdays price action . Thats why I say risk reward ratio point of view it is better to see price coming out of the channel to find the right location and ppz for trade opportunity ? What you reckon ?
Cheers
V
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Hey V
Sorry i am not sure what you are asking? I closed out basically at b/e b/c the break was not a hard one like I was hoping for and with NFP coming out I wasn't going to fight it.
Sorry if I missed your question
Mike
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Oct 8, 2010 12:57pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
That's what a week of trading the 5M will do to you. Enough thread hijacking.
Seriously though, anyone new could do much much worse than reading Steve's journal from start to finish. There's a whole journey in there and the method he's arrived at is so ridiculously simple and profitable. I always feel that simple is better in trading and the more time I spend doing this, the more I believe that. THe dumber and more obvious the better.
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Amen, Steve is one of my favorites
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Oct 8, 2010 1:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
I should be clearer! i need to upload some charts soon , dont have the software to take the shots at the moment but will work on it this weekend.
The trade that you did today sounded like a bit of chasing a trade if you dont mind me saying!
I stated on my chart there is a bautifull trend channel coming from...
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Hey Men
Thanks for your analysis. While I don't deny you may be right, my trading is much more simple. BEOB at swing high. I take em all year long. If this had say divergence or was at a BRN then I would have held it. B/c it was just a large beob coming into friday I wanted to see it break hard. It didn't I cut out for b/e. Onto the next one
So I don't deny your analysis, but I have traded like this for many years, I just keep it very basic and simple
Take care
Mike
PS essentially waiting for a hard break is waiting on that channel to break, it didn't and I got out. Really the same idea, but using the BEOB as a preemptive entry. Simplicity again
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Oct 9, 2010 9:14am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Smith
This is what mike meant when he said looking for 22.20, see the line here at 22.20, its a previous high, that was his area of interest, not sure if he was closing there, or going to b/e there, but that was his fta, then as nfp neared, he moved stops way down and got knocked out for a small loss before price ran up again.
Hope that partly helps.
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Thanks Mr. Smith 
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Oct 10, 2010 12:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocrel
watching this trade for next week
could do with a bigger pin but feel it might be worth a shot
major support
1.618 extension, similar drives
are we heading back up?
Attachment 558540
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Hey pocrel
I get very nervous when I see people trying to take these. This one is super super tiny and trading right into the BRN of 1.5500 Please be careful 
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Oct 10, 2010 10:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
Hey buddy, hows things?
You know you have a procrastination problem when you decide to mark up 200 stock charts instead of doing your work. Stupid Mondays.
Attachment 558728
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nice I like that 30 level 
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Oct 11, 2010 10:29am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LiuLangZe
Hi guys,
I was doing some backtesting and saw one fine pinbar which failed, any explanation much appreciated. Nice long pin here and rejected off 81.00 ppz, the only reason I figure is we are trading into BRN 80.00. Should the bar close below 80.00, it will then be a very very fine pin. Am I right? 
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Hey Liu
Firstly this is not a failed pin bar as technically it never broke. Remember a bar is never validated till it breaks the high/low. But yes I agree we want that close under that BRN. At least I do every single time
Best
Mike
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Oct 11, 2010 11:58am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LiuLangZe
Hey Mike! thats fast.. Another qn.. Does it matter how long it took to break the low/high of the pin or you will give it a miss if it do not break by say a week.. ?
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I look for momentum of the next bar to break or I cancel my order about 99% of the time. Some people will wait till it either breaks or it invalidates. Some wait a few days.
Best
Mike
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Oct 12, 2010 7:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forex0908
Hi All,
Need some feedback. I have been reading this thread for around 2 weeks now. Took a trade in demo this week.
1. There was a Pin Bar on GBPUSD.
2. To me it seemed like it was at a swing high.
3. Bouncing off a PPZ level - somewhere around 1.5980.
4. It retraced to a level between 61.8 and 78.6 of the Pin Bar.
5. It also touched the trendline.
6. Had entered at 50% retracement of the Pin Bar formed. Entry: 1.5920; SL: 1.6017 (High of the Pin Bar).
This trade went quite positive. Did anyone trade GU on similar logic - even remotely close...
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THis is a very logical trade plan in my eyes. Perfect area for a retrace entry rather then a break as the upside trend was pretty strong but the 1.6 was looking like price wanted to at least bounce here for a bit.
I think this was very well done
Mike
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Oct 13, 2010 12:20am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Oct 13, 2010 8:12am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fascist
EURCAD pinbar bounce off support at 1.400 back into the uptrend.
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Hey F
This is a very traffic pinbar at a swing high. We want to see a better swing low point and get this thing out of traffic. Not much to go on except a small bar at a swing high here.
Best
Mike
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Oct 13, 2010 10:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Agree yes  Well I exited @79.56.
And it went through 80 like there was nothing at it.... 
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Nice adi, much better size pin this time off that 70 mark. Nice job bud
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Oct 13, 2010 10:35am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Thanks Mike. I want to enlarge my list of shares. Because 530 stocks (SP+Dow) is still not enough to choose "the best of the best"... now I am thinking what are the others to add, maybe Nasdaq stocks, I don't know. Could you suggest anything?
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I don't check those markets except for fun. I would just say make sure you are trading more liquid stocks, Joel made a post about what he looks at I believe in here. Or some general rules for equities. Check his post history may have been 3-4 weeks back
Best
Mike
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Oct 13, 2010 1:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lallous
Hi all,
As usual great thread
Can I kindly ask you what do you think of the following two trades.
Please go easy on me

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Also to add to what Danny wrote, be careful with your fibs
A correct fib on the euro would have looked like this
Use the top of the swing points and lowest points. Also notice the way the nubmers run. The fib represents a % retracement of the previous move(s). So if price moved up price retraced to the 38.2 or 38.2% of the previous up move
Best
Mike
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Oct 13, 2010 1:53pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lallous
Thanks for the clear up,
I'm a bit confused regarding the fibs (I apologize if it is a lame question):
When do I draw the fib to have 0% at the top and 100% at the bottom and vice versa?
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the zero will be at the top of a retracement of a move up(see my chart), and the opposite will be the case when looking to sell into a rally from a move that goes short.
Think zero = start of the retracement
100% would be a full retracement to the previously used swing point
Best
Mike
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Oct 13, 2010 2:04pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Osman
EUR/GBP
Possible PB with the trend, let see how it close
88.20-88.40 very strong s/r level, as you can see on the chart.
Could be a valid div the one Ive marked on the RSI ?
Comments are appreciated.
Thx
Update: We?ve had a BEOB on the 4hr, its a correct BEOB ?
Thx again.
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Hey Osman
Be careful with these the bar is super tiny vs the recent strong bullish moves we are seeing as well as trading into the recent BUOB and much strong upside moves. These bars are IMO better left alone unless at super confluenced areas. i would not be surprised to see a small move down before another push higher with the current strong uptrend
Best
Mike
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Oct 13, 2010 5:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Osman
Hi Mike,
Thx for your comments, I understand what you say but if we didn't had that BUOB yesterday, u would take it ?
Or ull be looking for a bigger nose of the PB ?
Thx
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Hey Osman
I would need a much much bigger bar to consider fighting this strong up move. I would also be looking for more confluence for any smaller bar, but this size bar is an immediate pass for my approach to the markets. At the least those that play these one most look to the very first trouble area and not be surprised to see a turn around at them.
Take care
Mike
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Oct 13, 2010 5:59pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Osman
Hi Mike,
Yeah im gonna pass too,
Im new to this thread and im learning a lot from all of you guys, every advice is welcomed.
Will this be a correct BUOB ? Engulfing bar didn't went as low as the previous one....
Thx
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Hey Os
Glad you are learning a lot
No that is not. It must have a lower low then the previous bars low.
The bar 5 bars back is a BEOB, and the bar 3 in front of your bar is a BUOB
Best
Mike
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Oct 13, 2010 8:27pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dv84
Hey, USD/CHF daily is a pinbar? Sorry can't save anything on these damn uni computers. (At least mt4 mobile works =-]) So can't upload a picture. Has anyone else seen this? What do you think?
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Hey DV
Nope for it to be a pinbar, you want the nose to stick away from the previous lows
Here would be an example of a bullish pinbar
Stick to the big obvious ones when starting out, it is the best advice I can give
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Oct 13, 2010 9:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
I'm always out there, watching. Kind of like Batman, but instead of fighting crime I lecture people on the internet 
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hahah you always crack me up man
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Oct 13, 2010 11:54pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
Good point. I am passing on these because the Pb is smaller in size compared to the previous bear bar.
I was just using these to charts as an example to see if they were still valid to trade into because the pbs have already been broken. Or is the setup valid until it breaks your trigger? Or would I be "chasing these"?
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Hey Spookie
i think it becomes chasing it, b/c that is exactly why we use buffers so we don't get in before a specific level breaks, for that specific reason to keep us aside.
I agree with the analysis that these pinbars are under strong previous support potential resistance areas, and closed very weak. Lack any real bullish sentiment on them
Best
Mike
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Oct 14, 2010 4:22pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by damien100
NZD/USD H4 BUOB Retrace to previous resistance
I took this trade a couple of days ago sorry for delay in posting.
Entry 0.7510
SL 0.7480
TP 0.7510
Moved to Be/E to quick really at 0.7532 took half off
Reached Target for remainder
Buob
strong uptrend with 3 distinct touches
Retrace to 0.7500BRN -PPZ 61.8 % Fib
Please Critic where needed so I can continue to improve
I use 3 clicks to size picture if it needs changing larger or smaller please let me know.
Thanks
D
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Hey D
Looks great and really thought out. I like an entry on the retrace say at the BRN 7500, and then a stop around 7445, under that min trendline, under the 50 round number and under the left lows of that bigger buob too.
But like the way you used all the core concepts to generate a trade plan. This is great stuff
Mike
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Oct 14, 2010 4:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Osman
PB with a Retouch on the 99 level, should we go long ?
Comments, critics, ideas, thoughts..etc are welcomed
Os.
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Tough one Os, I think because of the bar size and lack of space on the retrace you put your FTA right near by at the 9950 level. I like that better if you say played the 1hr BUOB off this level b/c it gives you a bit more room to work with. I think the small 4hr pin handcuffs you a bit especially at this late time in the day. Not saying it may not bust through being with the trend, but again the mgmt aspect is important and if you are one who hates losses, and likes to move stops quick then you have to be super quick on a bar of this size at this location.
Best
Mike
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Oct 14, 2010 4:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Osman
Hey Mike,
Thx for your words, the 1hr bar stopped at 99.50 to the pip !!
If the 4hr bar closed around 99.30 i would take a shot at it, but now.. not worth it.
Didnt realized the 99.50 resistance until I check the 1hr charts
Mike, could we have your view on the daily setups we were talking about few posts before ?
Thx !!
Os.
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Hey Os
No problem any ones specifically. According to what my closes are going to be(only 10 mins left) nothing will be a valid bar. Like you said for any of the pinbars you need an open and close within the prior bar. The others have very neutral bar looks like usd/cad which has open and close near middle and is an indecision candle versus a reversal type candle.
To me we have very small uninteresting bounces today. Agreed nice levels to be watching at parity for aud/usd and into 80 on the usd/jpy But gotta wait for the trade that screams trade me
Best
Mike
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Oct 14, 2010 7:03pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Learn2b
Hi all,
I wonder what Rac-man style is?
Can anyone help me with this?
Thanks
Learn2b
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hey L2b
if you look for raczekfx name and search his posts you will be able to get a better idea. He has many fantastic posts in this thread.
Best
Mike
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Oct 15, 2010 8:34am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nycdweller
Hi Jim,
I spent the last couple of hours reading messages on your thread and it is very informative. Thanks for creating this thread and your contributions. I have a basic question. How do you personally determine if the trend is up, down, or in a range? What method do you use to determine the direction when you are looking at a bare chart without indicators? If answering this question will take too much of your time, can you please point me to where I can find the answer on the forum? Thanks for your help.
NYCDweller
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Hey Dweller
For me I keep it very simple. If the trend is up it will run from the bottom left to top right. If it is down, from to left to bottom right. Everything else is sideways. I keep my charts at the same zoom, so I know the trend in relation to what I am looking at.
Let us know if you have more questions
Mike
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Oct 15, 2010 9:18am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveI
USDCAD, a nice pin bar? I am new to this , please correct me.
Thanks
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Hey Dave
Technically that is a pinbar, although my issues are the body of the bar and the length of the nose are close to equal which gives it a funny look in my book. I would also caution its size vs the recent down move. Picking that bottom can be tricky, and for me bar size becomes a huge factor(been bit too many times). Nice level at parity to watch though I have my eye on it.
Best
Mike
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Oct 15, 2010 9:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost
I kinda like the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD off parity but they are both trading right into trouble, so nope
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I'm with ya too bud, Maybe one more push higher before the fall
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Oct 16, 2010 10:48am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by damien100
Mike cheers for your comments they mean a lot ,I have masses of work to do to widen my overall ability and standard to feel confident to go next step to a live account.
Just have to say ,learning what I have learn't so far about this business has been down to J16 YOU and JARROO , hats of to you.
Best
have a nice weekend
D
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You are taking the right steps bud. No reason to lose your shirt while learning. Baby steps.
Have a nice weekend
Mike
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Oct 17, 2010 1:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
I've chosen this for my next trade... any critisism will be highly appreciated 
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What exactly do you see with this one adi? Is this a stand out trade?
Remember irregardless of how this one plays out, based on our previous discussions do you remember your responses with that?
Best
Mike
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Oct 17, 2010 1:51pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Hello Mike!
Yes, I went through 821 instruments over weekend. As a result I ended up with 9 possible setups. All really stood out for me. I've chosen this for the following reasons:
-BEOB,
-with trend, at the TL
-45 BRN which was support now is a potential resistance
Most important factor was a trend. The size is not big, but it is with trend, so I thought it was ok. Also some room to move to about 43 where I have my FTA..
This was my thinking on this one...
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In my view I see price if anything more trending up in the recent, or more towards sideways then down. Remember in general we want BEOBs at swing highs, this is at a swing low. Very very tiny bar. If you babysit it, then I can see it maybe moving slightly lower, but certainly if you are struggling then this should be a very easy pass in my eyes.
Again not trying to discourage you of course. Just want to see you focusing on the best of the best
Mike
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Oct 17, 2010 1:54pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melvin87
Hi guys,
I've been learning how to trade with tighter money management. I recently saw a pin on the USDCAD Daily which may not be the most ideal but could potentially be good for a short profit to the 1.0100 level as shown in the charts. I then went down to a lower TF to find an entry point within the daily pin which was around 1.0010 in this case. Found a pinbar on the 5min charts and thought the break of that 5m pin would be a good entry point with SL at the low of the daily pin.
Can any seniors comment on whether this trade has been properly...
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Hey Melvin
You picked a great level to watch for lower timeframe PA at the left eye. But I can't say I don't get very nervous when I see people trying to go down to 5min from a daily PA so-so bar. That makes me get nervous though. Again the best location you can look for so you played it perfectly. But I still have to rely my concerns when I see this. Of course if you demo this then my concern goes way down b/c at least you can see if it works for you.
have a great end of the weekend
Mike
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Oct 17, 2010 7:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 666Doom
Hello there guys,
Now this one i know our respected people here have posted just double triple add this to them
The cable Pinnish bar below BRN 1.6000.
Just wanted to be post here so i may get extra confirm of my zones.

Regards
Taz
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Hey Taz
Here are MY personal views on these two pairs. Again of course just how I see and go about picking trades. Just pasting these from else where.
regarding Eur/usd
Hey Chee
This is an easy pass for me since the beob was not able to close under the previous bars low. This could very well be the sign of reversal after this large run up but because of the lack of strength on the close which is one of my rules with outside bars I will simply stand aside on this one.
Hope you had a nice weekend
regarding gbp/usd
Hey Pip welcome to the site hope you are enjoying things
I am not too keen on this pinbar for a few reasons.
Notice how the previous bar high is very high up on the pinbar. So although technically a pinbar, I think it looks very weak versus this strong up move. There are a lot of issues that it will have to tackle to the downsize. It just doesn't scream reversal to me. It may move down but even the 5950 could give this big trouble. One might see if 1.6 holds and if not cut out, but overall I think I will wait to see for a bigger cleaner bar reaction personally. Let me know if that makes sense and of course just my view.
Welcome again and be sure to let me know if you need anything
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Oct 17, 2010 10:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jey
All I heard from Jim about Div is that in a trending market, Div will kill you real good and proper. On why and how he says that I have no idea. Hope some seniors can shed some light on that will be much appreciated. Better with some example charts.
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Divergence is nothing more then when price is going one way and the oscillator is going the other way. It can be a heads up that momentum is fading one way or the other. If a trend is real strong you have to think it takes more to "reverse" or stall that trend. Thus divergence can not alone reverser a strong trend. This is why we use other confirming factors such as price bar analysis, support/resistance, and other things to make logical decisions. So don't try to pick tops and bottoms with divergence in a strong trending market, you will be out your lunch money quick. But using it as a heads up + the other tools and it is a great addition
Best
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 12:39am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leelar
Learning from James' #2 #3 posts on Two Consecutive Matching Low, sign of break out?
Am I learning the right thing here?
Trade 1:
0.2 unit on micro lot, Entry: 81.38, SL: 81.73, TP: 80.85, plan to take 1/2 near 81.85, will move the SL to BE, then trial the SL afterward.
Trade 2:
0.2 unit on micro lot, Entry: 129.48, SL: 130.32, TP: 128.61, plan to take 1/2 near 128.61, will move the SL to BE, then trial the SL afterward for the rest of 1/2.
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Hey Leelar
You would want to sell under those two matching lows if you want to play them as a continuation. Think of it like a breakout play. Until those break they are actually support. Once they break the idea is that, that support now gives way.
Best
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 12:42am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dabbledave
Scanned the charts, saw this and entered when price was at the 61.8 Fib retracement level of Friday's bearish pin bar.
The PB showed rejection of the daily trend line and the 1.62 round number.
My entry was a little before the close of the Sunday bar, so it ain't a valid pin bar.
My main doubt is the fact that we're at or near historic lows for this pair.
Thoughts anyone?
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Hey Dave
Yep you are correct. That is what makes playing these bars as continuations trickier(meaning it is at a swing low where we really want this to move higher and create "space" at a swing high). Now I actually think your retracement is the best type of way to play this particular scenario(b/c of the lack of room to the downside if you played a straight break), so you have to go ahead and accept that risk if this is the type trades that meet your criteria. Tricky playing at these lows though I agree. Sort of caught in between.
have a great week
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 9:11am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Hey Mike, the EU BEOB closed under the low of the previous bar on my IBFX feed.
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Hey Pin
Yes but the market is open for another hour after IBFX closes on fridays so I follow fxpro. Doesn't make that wrong, but just something I have come to do over the years
Best
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 9:13am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 666Doom
Hey Mike Great Words,
You really are a man of principles,looking at the fall that took place on these bars,i think anyone who missed them missed something big.lol
But as time and time again i see you just passing a bar just because it does not meet criteria 100 % is what is the great part.Hope i have that patience.
Yeah i really believe these rules you have very tight but they may be worthy of home-runs,waiting for words from you.
Your last couple of posts have been a revelation to me.
Whenever i see your post it reminds me of James words:
[b][size=4]If...
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Yep this is what I think most people miss. They see one bar or one situation and make the assumption for all bars. So if they miss a bar and it does a huge move they apply whatever it was from that situation to all situations move forward. And then they do this each time(which is as good as system hopping in my eyes). I just try to be consistent with the things that i know work for me. But remember there is a lot of ways to make it work which is the beauty of this stuff.
Best
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 9:26am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melvin87
Hey guys,
I came across this BEOB on the GBPCHF pair that engulfed 3 previous bars, at a minor swing high with ppz and 1.530 confluence.
However, it was trading right into the little consolidation as shown by the blue box.
Good structure but bad location. Not a good trade to be in. Any thoughts?
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Hey Melvin
I do a lot of personal work with closes of bars. imagine if that same bar closed down towards the bottom of that wick(that is what makes it look funky in my eyes). It would now have closed within that blue box that would show additional strength to the downside.
Again I put a lot of weight on closes of bars personally
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 9:31am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emmy01
Good day all can any one please explain in details the function of :
Bullish outside bar
Bearish Outside bar
Bullish inside bar
Bearish inside bar
much love.
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Hey Emmy
Welcome to the thread
There are only Bullish outside bars, and bearish outside bars. Inside bars, are simply inside bars.
By defintion.
A bullish outside bar(BUOB) is a bar that has a lower low then the previous bar, and a higher high then the previous bars. Its close is near the top portion of the bar.
A bearish outside bar(BEOB) is a bar that has a higher high then the previous bar, and a lower low then the previous bar. Its close is in the lower portion of the bar.
Both those bars engulf the prior bar.
And inside bar(IB) is simply a bars who range is smaller (the high to low) then the previous bar. Meaning it is engulfed BY the the previous bar.
Here is an example of each.
Best
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 9:59am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caesar
Simple little trade. BUOB at a swing low with some divergence touchig the 150. Would have been better if it closed above the 150.
Small retrace on open to the past bar high wich matched a bar low a couple of days earlier (Retrace entry anyone?)
I got in on the break and above the 150. FTA is the bar low it is approching. I am out with a small gain as I kept a very very tight stop while I am at the office as I can not always manege the trades when I need to.
As I am typing htis it looks like it has made the FTA.
Caesar
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That is a thing of beauty with those blue boxes Caesar makes trade mgmt a lot easier huh 
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Oct 18, 2010 1:02pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melvin87
Hey Mike,
So if the BEOB closed near its low you would have taken this bar despite the blue box of consolidation on the left?
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Well that wouldn't be enough for me, since I am very particular with my locations intraday. But that type of scenario is what I look for, for additional information. Like J said before me about the bar formation, just cause it qualifies as a bar setup doesn't make it worth trading. We want to dig a bit deeper. A stronger close there(which some of the other 4hr feeds had) will give you a lot more information and confidence. Especially in a repeatable manner going forward
Best
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 1:22pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
That is Dang crafty of them, is it not.
Thanks Mike
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Well it's all just broker dependent. As far as I see their charts stop ticking at 4pm est I believe so I assume live trading is shut down(could be a wrong assumption on my part). Technically the FX markets never close, but generally all brokers are closed, or into weekend trading at 5pm est NY time.
Take care
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 1:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melvin87
Ahh okok. So am I right to say that location would be more important than bar structure? For example, I spotted this DBLHC on the CHFJPY pair (h4 timeframe). So although its at a swing low with a large DBLHC, its trading right into the blue ppz which would not make it an ideal one?
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Hey Melvin
Yes location trumps all, but bar structure + location is very important as a whole. But you are correct in general terms
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 1:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar
Sometimes, I see a few people post a chart like this, it hits me that this is how we need to keep it simple.
I am trying to Keep It Simple, my mind doesn't like it and that is where the battleground is, not only on the charts.
Thanks for the encouragement Caesar. 
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Bingo!
As Jim says, it is what is b/w our ears that stops us most
Recognizing this is a big part of the battle
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 6:03pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leelar
Hi mbqb11,
Can you enter right after you see multi bars? or you have to wait till the multi bars high/low are broken through?
Same question to the consecutive two matching bar.
Thanks in advanced.
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Hey Lee
We always want to wait for a break to confirm the continuation.
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Oct 18, 2010 7:06pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
Mike, those really look as easier setups to me.
In a trending market they are even stronger I guess.
I just want to ask, would you consider this setup to be as reliable as PB or BUOB? (when with trend). If so I would add them to my tool box  really easy to spot, IMHO.
EDIT: And also (sorry for too many questions really) do you set your order before the break in anticipation or you let it break-close then enter on retracement maybe?
Just thinking how I could do it more efficient...
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Hey Adi
No one "setup" is more effective or reliable. Every setup and situation is it's own play in my book. Pinbars are no more effective then outside bars, just as the daily timeframe is no more reliable then the 5min. Everything is in relation to one and another , so that is how I approach every chart adn every trade. It's the situation(bars+s/r+confluence+ everything else) as a whole.
As for how I play them. When it is a multibar high/low I simply play a pure break. Just a buy above the highs. I play pullbacks only for breakout patterns, where as multi bar highs/lows I look for the "burst" breakout play from the accumulation of orders around these areas.
Best
Mike
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Oct 18, 2010 11:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by melvin87
Hey Mike, very interesting strategy there. I saw James' charts on it but wasn't sure how to play it myself.
What other factors do you look out for other than having at least 3 bar highs/lows? Does location and confluence play a big part here? Also, do you set a tight stop loss and monitor such trades very tightly since most of them seem to retrace back after the fast break?
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I usually look for more then 3-4 bar highs/lows in a row. There is no set one thing I look for necessarily. I just try to find ones that stick out and I believe will give a good push. My stop loss generally goes under the breakout bar(the bar that breaks the bar highs/lows).
Best
Mike
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Oct 19, 2010 9:34am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dk2007
Hi mike.
I have been reading a lot of your posts and can tell you...
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Hey D
They all gave you some great answers so I will just add I am very particular at the areas I look for PA, For example price hit parity and there was a very strong bullish reaction off this area (no PA to go long for me though) You can see that in the form of a strong " V " formation at this area. Your DBHLC is trading right back into the strong bulls here. Now even if you still go short the following bars gave a small pin then a BUOB, that at the very least you can cut out for a very small loss. Again you will see as you go, the bars are going to be your triggers, you have to ask WHY should I sell at this point. What is the story. I see you even have a trendline you would be selling back into and wonder if this played into your mind about moving your stops down or if you want to trade back into it.
Best
Mike
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Oct 19, 2010 12:26pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
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son of a !

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Oct 19, 2010 2:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
Would this bi a pin bar you would take on an hourly chart or? Wait for this PPZ to break and see what the PA will show for re test on a retrace? Thanks in advance!!
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be careful Meno
See the huge bearish bars before that, we want to be very careful fighting that beast. Also notice the nose and body of the bar are about equal. I don't really put those in the pinbar category.
Best
Mike
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Oct 19, 2010 2:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emmy01
Can anyone tell me why this trade went against me? DBLHC
The difference between them is 1.
Thanks
Attachment 564025
Thanks
Much love
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Hey Emmy
This was a very sideways consolidating market and that pattern occurred in the center of it. This is what we refer to as major traffic. We want to find that pattern at a swing low, away from this consolidating market. This will chop up many traders. The first thing my eye is drawn to is the market environment.
Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
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Oct 19, 2010 3:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menomoo
Yess ! Mike , that was for educational purposes for others to see Mike . I appreciate your reply and now that PPZ broken , can you give your insight to how you would play this situation . As a matter of fact I have to say it will give a reaction from 1.37 BRN or near by and possibly test 1.38 BRN . I mean I mention these target points to keep a very keen eye on PA around these points.
Thanks
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Hey M
I am really just sidelined. I didn't like anything up at 1.4 but will be watching if we retest 1.4, or get back to 1.35. Until then I will be a spectator on this pair.
Best
Mike
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Oct 19, 2010 4:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yarin
This one was a good trade,but why the pinbar exactly one week ago(same pair) faild?
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Hey Yarin
That one did what it was supposed to also. Remember a pinbar is not valid until the low breaks. So it took a few days for it to break(which a lot of people will pull their orders). If you left your order though notice it went exactly to those previous lows.
I didn't like the size, or how either of these sat though. But I prefer the recent one if any since it tested the previous high to give us that clear divergence
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Oct 19, 2010 5:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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yep well said Danny Thanks
I use FXpro which is a 5pm est close time. IBFX is 7pm est right now.
I just like to get that 5pm close as it fits my belief of the unofficial close as I call it.
Mike
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
From what I can tell, it looks like IBFX (maybe James can clarify). In my opinion, I don't think there is one feed more reliable than others. There will be times when you get a great bar and others don't.
Remember, all these feeds are generally the same except for the server time. We care that price reacts strongly at important areas of support/resistance. These strong reactions manifest themselves into pin bars, outside bars, etc. That's it. Don't worry about catching every bar because there is so much more to it than just the bar. It's about...
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Oct 19, 2010 11:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94
I like this setup. I would like an opinion on an entry point. Would the check mark be good, off the retrace down to the previous bar? Or, due to the consolidation would it be best to wait for the break of the Boub? Thanks.
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Hey Spookie I think you have a good idea if this is going to "hold"
I am weary of the range we are in and the BUOB not being able to close outside that box. If that is a tip off and this is the retracement you will have nailed it. You can get a tight stop and see what happens if these are the plays you like to make
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Oct 19, 2010 11:09pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leelar
It broke through S2 @ 127.76. My target is hit, I took the profit. Please some one tell me if I am thinking the right way or not. I don't know enough for the next move. I am thinking to wait to see if it can get to the previous low @126.64 on 5/25/2010. I have to see how it goes from there.
Please advise and would be greatly appreciated.
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Hey lee
I am trying to understand why you sold to give some feedback, but I have looked and can't find the reason. Care to expand?
Thanks
Mike
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Oct 20, 2010 9:07am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emmy01
Thanks Mike kudos to you.
so any price action formed in this kind of area are invalid?
Thanks
Much love
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Hey Emmy
Not neccesarily invalid, but under the circumstances we have to be much more careful what price bars we play. For example your next DBLHC is also very much in traffic, and that means price is likely to bounce very choppy at the first areas of trouble. These are the market enviornments that kill traders. Wait for us to get out of this area or at the very EXTREME parts of the "box"
best
Mike
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Oct 20, 2010 9:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mist Gun
Greetings,
I am looking for advice on entries. For example, I spot a DBHLC or DBLHC. What is the appropriate entry method? Would putting a buy/sell limit be best?
Looking forward to hearing input from other trader regarding this matter.
Regards,
MG
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Hey MG
There are various ways to enter. The first thing is a setup is not valid till it breaks, and not invalid to it breaks the opposite side.
So if you have a DBLHC to go long, it is not valid till the high of the pattern gets broken. For this reason the most conservative way and the way most of us enter is to wait for a break of the high and to place a buy stop above that high. Likewise a stop going on the other side of the pattern.
There are other ways to enter. A retrace of the pattern(retrace being some level defined by s/r, or a fib, a round number, etc). The other way is on the close. The advantages are a bigger position size. The disadvantage is potentially getting in before the bar setup validates.
Test what is most comfortable for yourself on demo
Take care
Mike
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Oct 20, 2010 9:21am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmzhang
Lemme explain my trade. On the 4H-TF of C-J price generated a BUOB @ PPZ/RNB 8400. I entered on a much lower TF via a nice PB @ 8420-ish also a 4H-PPZ and near a previous 4H-bar high, FTA would be the 8460. On the lower TF price broke the BUOB with quite some momentum, but right after the break bullish momentum dissipated and price dropped back. Just can't figure out why the break didn't pull through, the only barriers I can think of are those marked off daily bar lows on the attachement, also on the 1H-TF the 150 SMA was hanging around at the breakout....
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I would be cautious trading into the back end of the previous support here
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Oct 20, 2010 9:41am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emmy01
Thanks Mike
I want to you give me the link to where u state the meaning of the the following
PPZ
PB
S/R
etc..........
Keep up the good work.
Much love
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Hey Emmy
Do you mean what those abbreviations stand for ?
If so here is a lot of them
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=56751
Best
Mike
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Oct 20, 2010 11:47am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Have u read this? this was my reply to u 4 hours ago
the PPZ link leads u to this one below. it contains 2 links. the PPZ link is the 2nd one. how come u missed the first link?
yet, 2 hours ago, u posted this again
in a few seconds/minutes, u could've gotten the answer to your question if u used the Search tool. instead of asking redundant questions. u could've private messaged anyone here too. there are many ways to find an answer; in this case, u just didnt utilize them.
i did. 4 hours ago.
sadly,...
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SC it's ok bud, this thread is huge and goes fast. It can be very intimidating at first till one gets used to the terms/finding things/the process.
We all found it when it was much smaller
We are all here to help best we can, Emmy has been very polite
Appreciate your help as always SC
Mike
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Oct 20, 2010 11:58am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluetrader
Mike I'm upset too... because the Yankees lost. Is James flying to New York tonight to witness the end of this disaster?
Thanks.
-- Danny
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it ain't over till its over!
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Oct 20, 2010 12:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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you are very much appreciated around here SC 
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Oct 20, 2010 1:12pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
Im still pulling for them but last nights loss is the reason I am not going today. Saving myself paying for possible pain/anger.
On that note are you watching the game in the city mike? Lets get a Beer or 20.  
Lets go yanks!
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nope I will be on the island till tomm night but we will have to grab a beer some time
I think CC is going to come out blazing, then we take it game by game 
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Oct 20, 2010 1:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adilius07
I got an idea!!! Please don't laugh. But look, I know there are some services that provide some free weekly analysis of some charts (opportunities). Some do it through fundamentals others throught technicals...
So I was thinking... what if I join some of those services, they can give me an update once a week about some stock, or commodity or something that trades at a intersting level, or in some kind of pattern! So that would be like heads up, and all I will have to do is wait for the J16 PA at those levels?
So... anyone knows of any good free...
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no one will laugh at you here bud
But trust me when I say, it is best to do your full analysis as this is going to be the only way to trust yourself with your own money in the long run. Once you find a few things that work you will want to stick with those b/c you proved it to yourself. You don't need anyone else but you to make it happen. It just takes time, usually a very long time
Best
Mike
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Oct 20, 2010 5:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Hey jeffokes. . .looking at the Daily #CLXO it looks like there was no reaction to the these levels that we talked about, 80.00 & 80.50. That would be correct if we were looking for a setup on the Daily.
Looking at the 4 Hour and Hourly we can see that there was a reaction at the 80.50 which was the break of the consolidation. This is where touch traders can get into touble and were PA confirmation can make the difference.
The 4 hour and Hourly showed no clear, obvious PA. (The Hourly had an IB which was valid.)
It is this reaction . .this...
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Thanks J!
I missed this one
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