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  #22543  
Old Feb 25, 2009 6:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catiron View Post
.....
I am not suggesting bending my rules -- that will inevitably lead to more losses, but I would like to know how you all deal with the frustration of missed opportunites.
...
I'll tell you exactly how I dealt with that.

I narrowed down the levels at which I am willing to trade at.
For example at the "Big" pivots or "Big" Fib's etc. (This doesn't exclude intra-day trading if you like. Just day trade when prices get near better "zones")
You know these have the greatest chance of success, so when there are many many signals and moves happening you can sit back until you get an sms alert or whatever as an interesting area is approached only, instead of getting frustrated with the shotgun approach of smaller fib confluences etc.

There are a lot of money making moves happening at the moment. I totally feel where you are coming from. Make a list of the setups you know you are extra good at and set alerts that trigger in good areas for those particular set ups only.

An extra "narrow down" step I take for some trades is waiting for a trendline break and pullback at Trend lines that aren't too steep. This ensures a better chance of a long run and higher average R:R
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  #22543  
Old Feb 25, 2009 6:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catiron View Post
.....
I am not suggesting bending my rules -- that will inevitably lead to more losses, but I would like to know how you all deal with the frustration of missed opportunites.
...
I'll tell you exactly how I dealt with that.

I narrowed down the levels at which I am willing to trade at.
For example at the "Big" pivots or "Big" Fib's etc. (This doesn't exclude intra-day trading if you like. Just day trade when prices get near better "zones")
You know these have the greatest chance of success, so when there are many many signals and moves happening you can sit back until you get an sms alert or whatever as an interesting area is approached only, instead of getting frustrated with the shotgun approach of smaller fib confluences etc.

There are a lot of money making moves happening at the moment. I totally feel where you are coming from. Make a list of the setups you know you are extra good at and set alerts that trigger in good areas for those particular set ups only.

An extra "narrow down" step I take for some trades is waiting for a trendline break and pullback at Trend lines that aren't too steep. This ensures a better chance of a long run and higher average R:R
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  #22659  
Old Feb 27, 2009 2:29am
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Originally Posted by aarangio View Post
Hi ya Jim,

Could you please correct me but I was thinking this trade was in way to much traffic so it should be left alone??

Adrian
I would have skipped it myself Adrian. You would be correct for thinking it was low grade.

Not just the traffic, you'd want something to tell you that consolidation range was broken first. You would look at it as a sign of possible direction to come.

Edit: I actually traded around there somewhere. lol ...5 minute outside bar somewhere. I remember it because I woke up to find it missed my TP by 3 pips before starting the run down it's now in.
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  #22664  
Old Feb 27, 2009 3:45am
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Originally Posted by mrsingha View Post
H all,
Sorry to go off-topic for a minute but when I'm backtesting on MT4, pressing F12 only displays half the bar (on the very right hand edge of the screen). I can't see the candle wicks and therefore can't tell the shape of the bar.
Is there any way to get it to show the full bar width?
Thanks,

Steve.
Someone made a manual backtest indicator or expert or similar that helps you out there. I have a feeling it drew a box over the top or something to blank the last few bars out.

Don't know it sorry (I have ForestTester), but someone might be able to help you out further.
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  #22659  
Old Feb 27, 2009 2:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aarangio View Post
Hi ya Jim,

Could you please correct me but I was thinking this trade was in way to much traffic so it should be left alone??

Adrian
I would have skipped it myself Adrian. You would be correct for thinking it was low grade.

Not just the traffic, you'd want something to tell you that consolidation range was broken first. You would look at it as a sign of possible direction to come.

Edit: I actually traded around there somewhere. lol ...5 minute outside bar somewhere. I remember it because I woke up to find it missed my TP by 3 pips before starting the run down it's now in.
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  #22664  
Old Feb 27, 2009 3:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrsingha View Post
H all,
Sorry to go off-topic for a minute but when I'm backtesting on MT4, pressing F12 only displays half the bar (on the very right hand edge of the screen). I can't see the candle wicks and therefore can't tell the shape of the bar.
Is there any way to get it to show the full bar width?
Thanks,

Steve.
Someone made a manual backtest indicator or expert or similar that helps you out there. I have a feeling it drew a box over the top or something to blank the last few bars out.

Don't know it sorry (I have ForestTester), but someone might be able to help you out further.
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  #22869  
Old Mar 3, 2009 7:27am
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Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi guys

Anyone here doing well trading PA against the trend? or are most folks trading with the trend?
Yep. Against and with.

Just be careful with 'where' and both are just as good to you.

...And wait a lot. lol
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  #22869  
Old Mar 3, 2009 7:27am
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Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi guys

Anyone here doing well trading PA against the trend? or are most folks trading with the trend?
Yep. Against and with.

Just be careful with 'where' and both are just as good to you.

...And wait a lot. lol
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  #22925  
Old Mar 3, 2009 5:53pm
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Originally Posted by malvarezdel View Post
The PB failed because of the AUD rate hike, a rate cut was priced in the market.... and you know, sometimes Technical Analysis Must not be divorced from fundamentals......

Just my two cents.
There could be more technical failures to come yet, due to even more fundamental reasons that would clog up our reasoning.

Divorcing fundamentals from technical analysis is completely OK in my book. A set up just didn't work. We're trading probabilities, so MOST of them working is all we need. Regardless of their fundamental reason for failing.

(For the record I wouldn't have taken that trade anyway. Not as a pin anyway. ...Compare it with the bullish pin on the 12th of Jan and you'd call yourself crazy for putting it in the same league, ...as a set-up )
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  #22925  
Old Mar 3, 2009 5:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malvarezdel View Post
The PB failed because of the AUD rate hike, a rate cut was priced in the market.... and you know, sometimes Technical Analysis Must not be divorced from fundamentals......

Just my two cents.
There could be more technical failures to come yet, due to even more fundamental reasons that would clog up our reasoning.

Divorcing fundamentals from technical analysis is completely OK in my book. A set up just didn't work. We're trading probabilities, so MOST of them working is all we need. Regardless of their fundamental reason for failing.

(For the record I wouldn't have taken that trade anyway. Not as a pin anyway. ...Compare it with the bullish pin on the 12th of Jan and you'd call yourself crazy for putting it in the same league, ...as a set-up )
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  #23053  
Old Mar 5, 2009 12:12am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Never turn a winner into a loser. A classic Jim drum beat. Easy to say, tough to do. At least for me it was. Now it seems if I'm up 10 pips on a trade, I find myself moving my stop loss to breakeven. "Hoping" for a trade to get back-in-the-money has left many scars.
LOL. Yeah.....

"A little bit more, a little bit more!! Come on baby!!!! You can do it!!!"

"Ooooo.... Now it's gone negative. ....Can't book a loss.... I'll give it a little longer."

" DAMN!!!!..... Hit my stop loss!! If only I'd taken profit at the first barrier I'd be up."

"Where's the next trade?? ..This chart??... Nup... ...How about this one? ....Nup.... This pair?? ...hmmm.... there's an outside bar. That'll do.... "

"hmmmm..... If I go extra tight on the stop and go double or nothing I can make up for the last one and then some.... ..Account will be up heaps still anyway. "

"Shit!!!! ....What happened? Straight into a loser. ..AND now it's reversing to my original direction!!!!....Cheatin' broker HUNTED MY STOP!!!! "

.....Repeat , Repeat, Repeat..... Progressively making worse calls. Call it a day ....Go to bed P___d off.

Goes on week after week. ....You don't get out of the bad habits until you've broken account after account or get hit by a truck. All because you are managing your trades the stressful way.

OR

While your starting out, just take quick profits on half your position and set break even at first stall point. Or a point of confluence that's chosen through experience (...demo) . (...After choosing the best trades of course.) Things are so much more relaxed and the psychological impact on your decisions is more condusive to being successful. (MUCH easier, too, doing this on the daily and weekly charts)

When you get really good at choosing set ups you can manage the best trades a little different, but while learning the ropes you will make money doing it the second way above.
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  #23053  
Old Mar 5, 2009 12:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Never turn a winner into a loser. A classic Jim drum beat. Easy to say, tough to do. At least for me it was. Now it seems if I'm up 10 pips on a trade, I find myself moving my stop loss to breakeven. "Hoping" for a trade to get back-in-the-money has left many scars.
LOL. Yeah.....

"A little bit more, a little bit more!! Come on baby!!!! You can do it!!!"

"Ooooo.... Now it's gone negative. ....Can't book a loss.... I'll give it a little longer."

" DAMN!!!!..... Hit my stop loss!! If only I'd taken profit at the first barrier I'd be up."

"Where's the next trade?? ..This chart??... Nup... ...How about this one? ....Nup.... This pair?? ...hmmm.... there's an outside bar. That'll do.... "

"hmmmm..... If I go extra tight on the stop and go double or nothing I can make up for the last one and then some.... ..Account will be up heaps still anyway. "

"Shit!!!! ....What happened? Straight into a loser. ..AND now it's reversing to my original direction!!!!....Cheatin' broker HUNTED MY STOP!!!! "

.....Repeat , Repeat, Repeat..... Progressively making worse calls. Call it a day ....Go to bed P___d off.

Goes on week after week. ....You don't get out of the bad habits until you've broken account after account or get hit by a truck. All because you are managing your trades the stressful way.

OR

While your starting out, just take quick profits on half your position and set break even at first stall point. Or a point of confluence that's chosen through experience (...demo) . (...After choosing the best trades of course.) Things are so much more relaxed and the psychological impact on your decisions is more condusive to being successful. (MUCH easier, too, doing this on the daily and weekly charts)

When you get really good at choosing set ups you can manage the best trades a little different, but while learning the ropes you will make money doing it the second way above.
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  #23166  
Old Mar 5, 2009 7:44pm
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Originally Posted by dmc View Post
I got to my computer a little late on this one....

OFF round number
Pretty good pin bar shape,
Off 365 EMA
Off 50 Fibonacci Level

Not sure if it has great room to run up I see some bar highs on the left at the 49.35 area.
Great pin. Nothing wrong with taking pins into tokyo. Sometimes they may not do anything till later on, but look what happened this time.

Quote:
Also is it a bad time to take 4 hr trades going into Tokyo session?
Remember that this pair consists of two countries who are doing business during those hours.
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  #23166  
Old Mar 5, 2009 7:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
I got to my computer a little late on this one....

OFF round number
Pretty good pin bar shape,
Off 365 EMA
Off 50 Fibonacci Level

Not sure if it has great room to run up I see some bar highs on the left at the 49.35 area.
Great pin. Nothing wrong with taking pins into tokyo. Sometimes they may not do anything till later on, but look what happened this time.

Quote:
Also is it a bad time to take 4 hr trades going into Tokyo session?
Remember that this pair consists of two countries who are doing business during those hours.
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  #23449  
Old Mar 11, 2009 6:11am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Anyone like the H4 pin on EJ ?
I don't.

Too small in relation to the bars around it.

I want to see what happens in 125.20-125.40 area

Looking for more certain opportunities. ...As always.
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  #23456  
Old Mar 11, 2009 7:01am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Dont mind it at 50% fib of previous rally and a decent SR zone ..

Add the bull outside line forming now ...
Ghous uncovered the major plan. ...No going long until we get over that resistance. At least on that time frame. Which is looking 'tight'

Here's another reason... (Even if temporary. There will be better trades.)
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  #23460  
Old Mar 11, 2009 9:54am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
I want to see what happens in 125.20-125.40 area
LOL ...There's our answer ....Stuck like an ant in honey.

I'd say long eventually by the way it's trapped.
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  #23485  
Old Mar 11, 2009 2:38pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
...
I don't think you have too much to worry about there. That was a nice spike on Yen a few minutes ago.
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  #23449  
Old Mar 11, 2009 6:11am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Anyone like the H4 pin on EJ ?
I don't.

Too small in relation to the bars around it.

I want to see what happens in 125.20-125.40 area

Looking for more certain opportunities. ...As always.
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  #23456  
Old Mar 11, 2009 7:01am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Dont mind it at 50% fib of previous rally and a decent SR zone ..

Add the bull outside line forming now ...
Ghous uncovered the major plan. ...No going long until we get over that resistance. At least on that time frame. Which is looking 'tight'

Here's another reason... (Even if temporary. There will be better trades.)
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  #23460  
Old Mar 11, 2009 9:54am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
I want to see what happens in 125.20-125.40 area
LOL ...There's our answer ....Stuck like an ant in honey.

I'd say long eventually by the way it's trapped.
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  #23499  
Old Mar 11, 2009 6:42pm
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Default Some Outside Bar Tips

Location was a hassle, but I'd have skipped an outside bar that is only a small amount larger than the previous bar too. Closing below the previous bar would be a helpful as well.

Take good note of your outside bar setups and the position of their closes, both relative to themselves and to the previous bars. (for future reference, you'll learn the best ones)

I'm also keen on outside bars with extraordinary range compared to the other bars, when used as reversals. Shows significant sentiment change. (I play a retrace of these mostly)

Just some rules I use personally that might be worth observing.

As you pointed out, that peak you are drawing your PPZ from had a very high chance of stopping the move after a large up move like that had eclipsed it. (From my own experience.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Here is a terrible trade I took last night and just wanted everyone to learn from it what I did. There was a decent sized BEOB on the 4hr AUDCHF. Had the confluence of a round number and 61.8 Fib, swing high.

I recently had 3 wins in a row and was itching to trade, thought I could be slick and snag 10 pips out of this trade. 10 friggen pips, look there is no space it went 7 pips and reversed in the area I had a TP at but missed by 2 pips.

Why would I ever risk money from my account on 10 pips! The most important thing I learned...
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  #23502  
Old Mar 11, 2009 8:01pm
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Originally Posted by johnnyonspot View Post
I took this BUOB, which was fine, but I should have placed my entry further up due to the PPZ directly above. I thought this was a signal that this PPZ would be pierced and broken since the BUOB was right at it, but either should have placed entry further up, past the PPZ, or passed altogether and waited for a retrace to the PPZ before entering long. I am still in this trade so far and it could still go my way. Also took two other bad trades last night, in ej and nj, both shorts, but got out at b/e on both.
Presuming you are only risking the correct amount on this trade, I wouldn't panic at all here.

OK, the entry was right against a support line, but as far as 'where' the bar formed, there's a pretty chance this will hold mate. I can think of much worse entries than that. If it stops out, it stops out.

Edit: If I was looking for a retrace entry (and others), It'd be around here. So let it do it's thing.
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  #23485  
Old Mar 11, 2009 2:38pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
...
I don't think you have too much to worry about there. That was a nice spike on Yen a few minutes ago.
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  #23499  
Old Mar 11, 2009 6:42pm
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Default Some Outside Bar Tips

Location was a hassle, but I'd have skipped an outside bar that is only a small amount larger than the previous bar too. Closing below the previous bar would be a helpful as well.

Take good note of your outside bar setups and the position of their closes, both relative to themselves and to the previous bars. (for future reference, you'll learn the best ones)

I'm also keen on outside bars with extraordinary range compared to the other bars, when used as reversals. Shows significant sentiment change. (I play a retrace of these mostly)

Just some rules I use personally that might be worth observing.

As you pointed out, that peak you are drawing your PPZ from had a very high chance of stopping the move after a large up move like that had eclipsed it. (From my own experience.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Here is a terrible trade I took last night and just wanted everyone to learn from it what I did. There was a decent sized BEOB on the 4hr AUDCHF. Had the confluence of a round number and 61.8 Fib, swing high.

I recently had 3 wins in a row and was itching to trade, thought I could be slick and snag 10 pips out of this trade. 10 friggen pips, look there is no space it went 7 pips and reversed in the area I had a TP at but missed by 2 pips.

Why would I ever risk money from my account on 10 pips! The most important thing I learned...
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  #23502  
Old Mar 11, 2009 8:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyonspot View Post
I took this BUOB, which was fine, but I should have placed my entry further up due to the PPZ directly above. I thought this was a signal that this PPZ would be pierced and broken since the BUOB was right at it, but either should have placed entry further up, past the PPZ, or passed altogether and waited for a retrace to the PPZ before entering long. I am still in this trade so far and it could still go my way. Also took two other bad trades last night, in ej and nj, both shorts, but got out at b/e on both.
Presuming you are only risking the correct amount on this trade, I wouldn't panic at all here.

OK, the entry was right against a support line, but as far as 'where' the bar formed, there's a pretty chance this will hold mate. I can think of much worse entries than that. If it stops out, it stops out.

Edit: If I was looking for a retrace entry (and others), It'd be around here. So let it do it's thing.
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  #23537  
Old Mar 12, 2009 8:33am
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Default GBPJPY 4 Hr pin

.
Gorgeous looking G/J pin. Closing on the right side of good confluence.
.
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  #23541  
Old Mar 12, 2009 9:06am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Nice .. on the same one - tp ?
I can see 140 in the immediate ..
Monster fib. confluence , proven reaction area and very very nice pin like that? ...No target. I'll trail the price action.

Hookie pointed out a great target. That's where my alerts are getting set.
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  #23552  
Old Mar 12, 2009 9:28am
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Bundy, about your trade, do you think ~133.80 -134.00 could be where price might have problem? I see a minor daily PPZ there. The pin looks very nice though..
Yes. ...Well spotted. 134.50 is probably important too. You could sell part anywhere in that area and set rest to B.E. if you like.

I'm not worried. Will manage this one bar by bar every 4 hrs for the moment.
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  #23559  
Old Mar 12, 2009 9:59am
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Originally Posted by advfntrader View Post
GBP/JPY forming 1hr pin in reverese direction.
To go all the way without a retrace is unlikely.

Personally I entered on the 4hr and ignore the 1 hour because of that. ...And get to grab some sleep in the mean time. lol
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  #23562  
Old Mar 12, 2009 10:17am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
How did u possibly stay in the trade after a near 100 pip retrace ??

to ya if ya did !
Easy . What's a pip worth?? Don't think in pips for starters.
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  #23537  
Old Mar 12, 2009 8:33am
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Default GBPJPY 4 Hr pin

.
Gorgeous looking G/J pin. Closing on the right side of good confluence.
.
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  #23541  
Old Mar 12, 2009 9:06am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Nice .. on the same one - tp ?
I can see 140 in the immediate ..
Monster fib. confluence , proven reaction area and very very nice pin like that? ...No target. I'll trail the price action.

Hookie pointed out a great target. That's where my alerts are getting set.
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  #23566  
Old Mar 12, 2009 10:28am
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Is there any reason for that Bundy? Just look at G/J

Yeah... Well... She's certainly made a move. lol

These are the types of Pins Mikey waits for and I change my tactics for. (Anyone wondering why Mike's good at holding? )

Learn to wait for these charmers in good locations and not trade anything else, .......you'd do pretty well for yourself.

Night y'all.
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  #23552  
Old Mar 12, 2009 9:28am
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Bundy, about your trade, do you think ~133.80 -134.00 could be where price might have problem? I see a minor daily PPZ there. The pin looks very nice though..
Yes. ...Well spotted. 134.50 is probably important too. You could sell part anywhere in that area and set rest to B.E. if you like.

I'm not worried. Will manage this one bar by bar every 4 hrs for the moment.
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  #23559  
Old Mar 12, 2009 9:59am
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Originally Posted by advfntrader View Post
GBP/JPY forming 1hr pin in reverese direction.
To go all the way without a retrace is unlikely.

Personally I entered on the 4hr and ignore the 1 hour because of that. ...And get to grab some sleep in the mean time. lol
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Old Mar 12, 2009 10:17am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
How did u possibly stay in the trade after a near 100 pip retrace ??

to ya if ya did !
Easy . What's a pip worth?? Don't think in pips for starters.
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Old Mar 12, 2009 10:28am
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Is there any reason for that Bundy? Just look at G/J

Yeah... Well... She's certainly made a move. lol

These are the types of Pins Mikey waits for and I change my tactics for. (Anyone wondering why Mike's good at holding? )

Learn to wait for these charmers in good locations and not trade anything else, .......you'd do pretty well for yourself.

Night y'all.
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Old Mar 13, 2009 7:15pm
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Originally Posted by clockwork71 View Post
I trade 2 day pins all the time, I have found them to be every bit as reliable as a normal Pinocchio Bar.
Ditto.

Jaroo combines bars all the time too.

I've probably taken just as many two-bar pins as single bar ones. ...On all time frames.

Comes back to what Mr Trend pointed out recently too, about releasing yourself from the pre-defined bar patterns we push here.

You do get good at putting the raw price movements into context. Lop-sided outside bars etc. lol

I trade a lot of inside bars that are actually two bar pins as well. ...They're the easy IBs to trade.
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Old Mar 13, 2009 7:15pm
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Originally Posted by clockwork71 View Post
I trade 2 day pins all the time, I have found them to be every bit as reliable as a normal Pinocchio Bar.
Ditto.

Jaroo combines bars all the time too.

I've probably taken just as many two-bar pins as single bar ones. ...On all time frames.

Comes back to what Mr Trend pointed out recently too, about releasing yourself from the pre-defined bar patterns we push here.

You do get good at putting the raw price movements into context. Lop-sided outside bars etc. lol

I trade a lot of inside bars that are actually two bar pins as well. ...They're the easy IBs to trade.
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Old Mar 14, 2009 8:23pm
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Originally Posted by Luso View Post
Hi Bundy,
Hi Luso!!

Quote:
Can you please explain what you mean by "putting the raw price movements into context"?
By context, I'm talking about position on the chart against known levels etc. And timing... ...All the same confluence hoo har that we use for ALL trades here.

Raw price movements....

Imagine a pin, and the individual price movements over that day that went into making it.

...Now, what if those same price movements begun a quarter of a day late??
...The raw movement is still there, but now that same pin has disappeared from the daily chart because it now spans parts of two separate days, giving a different pattern that's not one of our pre-defined bar patterns we use here.
BUT it is still tradable if you are able to 'SEE' it and, of course, if it's in the right place on the chart.

This is just me complicating all this for you. You are best to ignore what I've just said and learn to trade without complications like it for now. Really. You will see these patterns in the years to come, naturally. You have enough to master already without all my bull.

Quote:
what are lop-sided outside bars?
See above.

...Just me being over complicated again. Technically the bars I had in mind aren't even outside bars. It comes back to what I wrote above... ....it 'would' have been an outside bar if the beginning of the day was at a different time. Instead the bar is NOT outside the previous one, but the price movement is just as significant in the same way, and the bar can still be traded and managed the same way.

...Ignore all that too!

Quote:
Also, I don't understand what you mean by inside bars thar are actually 2 bar pins and why they are easier to trade.
That's a misunderstanding. I Didn't mean easier to trade than pins. I meant "out of all inside bar patterns, the ones that are equivalent to a two bar pin are the easiest to trade"
Sorry about that.

Quote:
If you could explain with charts, it would be really appreciated.
I'm pushed for time for the next week (Haven't even gotten to my own weekly charts to analyse them yet!!) , but I'll put something up at some point for you over the next couple of weeks. If not, remind me. There are some non confusing examples of what I am talking about.

Quote:
Thank you in advance,
Miguel
You're welcome Miguel.

Quote:
EDIT - Ok, I guess lop-sided bars are just impossilbe for now (the technology isn't that advanced yet)) I didn't understand it was a joke, just now that i checked my dictionary for lop-sided...LOL
Yeah, kind of a joke, in that you can't call them outside bars when they aren't. lol

A guy with one leg 3 inches shorter than the other would stand lop-sided.
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Old Mar 14, 2009 8:23pm
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Originally Posted by Luso View Post
Hi Bundy,
Hi Luso!!

Quote:
Can you please explain what you mean by "putting the raw price movements into context"?
By context, I'm talking about position on the chart against known levels etc. And timing... ...All the same confluence hoo har that we use for ALL trades here.

Raw price movements....

Imagine a pin, and the individual price movements over that day that went into making it.

...Now, what if those same price movements begun a quarter of a day late??
...The raw movement is still there, but now that same pin has disappeared from the daily chart because it now spans parts of two separate days, giving a different pattern that's not one of our pre-defined bar patterns we use here.
BUT it is still tradable if you are able to 'SEE' it and, of course, if it's in the right place on the chart.

This is just me complicating all this for you. You are best to ignore what I've just said and learn to trade without complications like it for now. Really. You will see these patterns in the years to come, naturally. You have enough to master already without all my bull.

Quote:
what are lop-sided outside bars?
See above.

...Just me being over complicated again. Technically the bars I had in mind aren't even outside bars. It comes back to what I wrote above... ....it 'would' have been an outside bar if the beginning of the day was at a different time. Instead the bar is NOT outside the previous one, but the price movement is just as significant in the same way, and the bar can still be traded and managed the same way.

...Ignore all that too!

Quote:
Also, I don't understand what you mean by inside bars thar are actually 2 bar pins and why they are easier to trade.
That's a misunderstanding. I Didn't mean easier to trade than pins. I meant "out of all inside bar patterns, the ones that are equivalent to a two bar pin are the easiest to trade"
Sorry about that.

Quote:
If you could explain with charts, it would be really appreciated.
I'm pushed for time for the next week (Haven't even gotten to my own weekly charts to analyse them yet!!) , but I'll put something up at some point for you over the next couple of weeks. If not, remind me. There are some non confusing examples of what I am talking about.

Quote:
Thank you in advance,
Miguel
You're welcome Miguel.

Quote:
EDIT - Ok, I guess lop-sided bars are just impossilbe for now (the technology isn't that advanced yet)) I didn't understand it was a joke, just now that i checked my dictionary for lop-sided...LOL
Yeah, kind of a joke, in that you can't call them outside bars when they aren't. lol

A guy with one leg 3 inches shorter than the other would stand lop-sided.
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Old Mar 14, 2009 8:35pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Dan

Welcome to your first post

You said a lot of key words in your post. "missed" "ideal" "price is now 64 pts GONE".

All leading to a chasing entry. Yes the entry was above the high of the BUOB(see raczefxs entry). Don't go chasing this entry now. If you missed the trade you missed the trade. Many more will come and go. Although I agree we will probably visit higher, if I miss my entry then I don't go after the trade anymore. It is a bad habit in my opinon.
Yes. A whole world of hurt than can be totally avoided by just letting them go untouched in the first place and just wait for a good one that you CAN catch.
Just what it means 'psychologically' shouts out at me. If you're that desperate to get in on a trade, then..... well ....I shouldn't have to say anymore.
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Old Mar 14, 2009 8:35pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Dan

Welcome to your first post

You said a lot of key words in your post. "missed" "ideal" "price is now 64 pts GONE".

All leading to a chasing entry. Yes the entry was above the high of the BUOB(see raczefxs entry). Don't go chasing this entry now. If you missed the trade you missed the trade. Many more will come and go. Although I agree we will probably visit higher, if I miss my entry then I don't go after the trade anymore. It is a bad habit in my opinon.
Yes. A whole world of hurt than can be totally avoided by just letting them go untouched in the first place and just wait for a good one that you CAN catch.
Just what it means 'psychologically' shouts out at me. If you're that desperate to get in on a trade, then..... well ....I shouldn't have to say anymore.
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Old Mar 15, 2009 9:49pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
DS!
LOL... Speaking Of Darkstar.... I'm having an hallucination right now. I keep seeing a post above yours from him.

Good poster. Wonder what happened to 'im?
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Old Mar 15, 2009 9:49pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
DS!
LOL... Speaking Of Darkstar.... I'm having an hallucination right now. I keep seeing a post above yours from him.

Good poster. Wonder what happened to 'im?
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Old Mar 17, 2009 5:08am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
inground or overground? tough to transport the former

sorry couldn't resist
Is that actually your pool?

Who's ever it is I like the whole setting. Could trade from there.
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Old Mar 17, 2009 5:08am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
inground or overground? tough to transport the former

sorry couldn't resist
Is that actually your pool?

Who's ever it is I like the whole setting. Could trade from there.
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Old Mar 17, 2009 7:22pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
chart
"Price-Action / Multiple Bottoms/tops /Divergence
A strong case could be made to trade nothing else"


Too right Jim.

I've even considered creating another sub-account for this purpose only. Really should just do it. lol

When I do wake up to it, this is a situation I don't even have to think about much before entering.
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Old Mar 17, 2009 7:22pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
chart
"Price-Action / Multiple Bottoms/tops /Divergence
A strong case could be made to trade nothing else"


Too right Jim.

I've even considered creating another sub-account for this purpose only. Really should just do it. lol

When I do wake up to it, this is a situation I don't even have to think about much before entering.
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Old Mar 17, 2009 11:03pm
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Originally Posted by dengzhi View Post
how bout no indys? no macd, no nothing. pure bar charts
I don't know about Jim, but you CAN actually see divergence in the pure chart.
All it is is where price has stopped accelerating and you can actually see that on the bare chart if you stop concentrating on the trees. (so to speak )
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Old Mar 18, 2009 7:28am
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Originally Posted by 786 trading View Post
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade.....
Anyway, the most important point I want to make here from my experience is playing these sort of break trades is trickier than a lot of the set ups we do here. Just my opinion, but my first tip would to be to just watch and observe on those ones for the time being and notice how going with the higher timeframe "trend is your friend" deal is smart.

I'm dead tired after a big day. Otherwise I know I'd have more to say here. lol ....Especially along the lines of showing the areas I like to trade them verses that "potentially in the middle of a new range" one you took yourself. One easy example is momentum "pauses". These are good ones to take these trades, ...where you are in a strong move and the price hits a temporary wall causing a double bottom/top for a bar or three and so on, hammering against that price ...then finally breaks through and continues.

That trade you took was in a potential pull-back zone. ...Which I think Rac or someone pointed out.

Go back and look at Jim's first few pages in this thread (again ) where he examples these at some point. Just about as good examples as you can get on these bars. I think you'll be able to see the difference between the ones he took and yours.

...Right ...now to move the stop on my one lonely trade, take half profit.... ...NO STRESS... ...Die in the butt I think and go to sleep ...LOL
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Old Mar 17, 2009 11:03pm
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Originally Posted by dengzhi View Post
how bout no indys? no macd, no nothing. pure bar charts
I don't know about Jim, but you CAN actually see divergence in the pure chart.
All it is is where price has stopped accelerating and you can actually see that on the bare chart if you stop concentrating on the trees. (so to speak )
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Old Mar 18, 2009 7:28am
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Originally Posted by 786 trading View Post
I bought at G/U last night and it hit my stop loss. I bought it on previous two candles break out and thought trend is continuing upward. But it hit my stop loss.
I am trying to find why it was bad trade.....
Anyway, the most important point I want to make here from my experience is playing these sort of break trades is trickier than a lot of the set ups we do here. Just my opinion, but my first tip would to be to just watch and observe on those ones for the time being and notice how going with the higher timeframe "trend is your friend" deal is smart.

I'm dead tired after a big day. Otherwise I know I'd have more to say here. lol ....Especially along the lines of showing the areas I like to trade them verses that "potentially in the middle of a new range" one you took yourself. One easy example is momentum "pauses". These are good ones to take these trades, ...where you are in a strong move and the price hits a temporary wall causing a double bottom/top for a bar or three and so on, hammering against that price ...then finally breaks through and continues.

That trade you took was in a potential pull-back zone. ...Which I think Rac or someone pointed out.

Go back and look at Jim's first few pages in this thread (again ) where he examples these at some point. Just about as good examples as you can get on these bars. I think you'll be able to see the difference between the ones he took and yours.

...Right ...now to move the stop on my one lonely trade, take half profit.... ...NO STRESS... ...Die in the butt I think and go to sleep ...LOL
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Old Mar 25, 2009 7:15pm
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Originally Posted by eltrot1979 View Post
4hr pin on GBPJPY off of PPZ around 141 area. For me the nose is not long enough so I'll probably pass.
If you're thinking of passing it's always good to do so.

This one doesn't jump out and say "Trade me MOFO or I'll kick you asse!!!" , but it's got a lot going for it otherwise.

I like that it closed above the trouble area. Always a good 'plus' in my book.

Edit: Not to mention this could be the beginning of a very good run upwards via 148.50 to the mid 150s
.
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Old Mar 25, 2009 7:24pm
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Originally Posted by baz View Post
GBP_USD Spot.png

2 day Cable....anyone see any Problems with this..

baz
Yep. Definite problem. It screws with my head on a possible GJ long.
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Old Mar 25, 2009 7:33pm
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Holy sh!!!

Just opened up one of my accounts to find a 700 point profit on a forgotten Euro trade that's put my account up 10%-ish

Payed for last weeks "play time". ..NICE!!
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Old Mar 25, 2009 7:37pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Borthwick Castle. See you there & I look forward to an evening of port & cognac & good word.
What is it about castles?

Just watched a "Time Team" episode on a Lord Grey castle dig. Love 'em.
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Old Mar 25, 2009 7:44pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
MAN I WOULD LOVE TO DO THAT.

somewhere deep in my soul i remember the old country.

ive "been gone" for around 300 years but i can still sense it.
LOL.. You looked it up too?

Pretty swisho joint. Very nice.

Gotta get over there myself too.
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Old Mar 25, 2009 7:55pm
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Originally Posted by baz View Post
yes,i saw a bounce on GBP/YEn as well on the 4 hr....
i guess will have to see what LONDON open brings...

baz
I like this one, but only enough to 'start' building a position up. I'll watch this closely for sure.
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Old Mar 28, 2009 8:25pm
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Originally Posted by pharmaraider View Post
So what was the genesis of my first post? Well, after spending 6 months studying the material in the PF, I resumed live trading. For the past 2 months, my small account is up 13%. I have taken 4 trades, 3 winners, 1 breakeven.
...Love it.

This is the holy grail to me.

...And that same attitude transfers throughout the time frames. Being willing to watch dozens upon dozens of bars (even hundreds) go by without feeling the need to trade sub-par set ups.

You don't need to.
.
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Old Mar 29, 2009 6:23pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
LOL.

i always get a kick out of these.

ive been studying candles since they became "popular"

they tell the same story as bar charts and much more confusing visually.

there ARE NO differences between them.

anyone that tells you differently are generally the same people that have a chart so filled with crap you cant even see price.

no offense to you chart but thats how it is.

the only difference between a candle and a bar is how they look.


jim
Yeah, they both give you the same information. I have to semi-disagree with you on bars been clearer.

It's obvious it depends on the individual. Look at Jaroo.

I use candle charts myself to see different things clearer occasionally.
Personal taste. Neither is better.
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Old Mar 29, 2009 7:04pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Actually I was thinking of changing to the Forest charts.
Why complicate things. Kagi. Fo' sho' Bro'

Go no idea how you trade this. lol
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Old Mar 29, 2009 7:07pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
yeah your right. im gonna reword that post.
Well, I'm never wrong. ...So I'll be risking 50% on my next trade.
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Old Mar 29, 2009 7:09pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Its actually spelling "Pin Bar". I love it.
We're laughing at it, but I actually see a really good PPZ there. lol
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Old Mar 29, 2009 7:12pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
LOL yep I bit my tongue on that post
Same. You get over it after a while.

The right attitude would be to open up to the "real" information 'between the lines' in this thread. Not go on a anti-plagiarism crusade. (Or suggest one )
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Old Mar 29, 2009 7:20pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
how about dot on close?

ive been playing with this one for a long time. lol

But that's a valid charting method . ....When combined with astrology.

When Sagittarius follows Capricorn you go long. lol
.
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Old Mar 29, 2009 7:47pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
its a 12 gauge pattern after i actually tried to trade it one time.

lol. The shot gun approach. I thought that was just an analogy you used.
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Old Mar 29, 2009 10:29pm
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Originally Posted by joebryce View Post
Hey everyone, I wanted to post a follow up chart to the Eur/Aud 4hr pin from last week. This trade has brought up some good questions for me that maybe some of you seniors can help with.

After entering price reached the first area we watch then came back exactly to BE. Then it ran to the next area and came back again only this time it took BE out by a few pips. Now, we can see price has moved below the recent lows and I hope it stays.

Here's the question. I had alerts set and it was fairly quick and easy to stay in this trade without getting out...
I like what Mike has said.

Your confidence in the method isn't really there yet either.
You know it works, but you're unsure of your long term results maybe. That'll come.
I don't think you should increase the risk percentage at this stage until then.
Gradually bigger account would work better, psychologically. IMO
.
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Old Mar 29, 2009 11:25pm
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Originally Posted by joebryce View Post
I guess what I am seeing is that it would be much easier, less stressful and less time consuming to trade Jim's way where he seems to take profits quicker than I. If my risk was larger it would be worth exiting a first resistance. With my small trade I just have a hard time taking small profits so I end up with a lot of BE and a few big winners.
Sorry Joe. I actually didn't read your post very well. lol

I've mentioned this before, but I take a different strategy based on what I see as the likely hood of various targets being reached. A really really good "Cherry Mike" trade ( ) I will hold the WHOLE position through draw down with confidence. But the majority of trades I trade the Jim-Jim(Jaroo) way.
(heh heh ...Jim-Jim(Jaroo) )

....Jim- Jimmeny - Jim - Jimmeny - Jim - Jim - Jaroooooo, A Chiminey sweeps the life... and that's what I dooooo...

...Side tracked. lol

Ennny way... A lot of trades it's First half profit quickly etc. ......So much easier to take any trade without stress that way, since most trades have expected trouble areas, even when you have a good idea of the ultimate target.
.
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Old Mar 30, 2009 5:43am
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
please take this with a pinch of salt but...

even though most of the setups were weekly tf I have actually come out of all of my positions - I know many of you will still be holding shorts on ej, gj etc - and i don't want this to influence your own views.
Now i could be wrong and i wouldn't normally adjust trades from a lower tf but the recent daily TL was too hard to ignore.
Most notable on the gbpjpy which i am now long (demo only) - this got me looking at gbpusd which i see a retest off the bearish TL to go long - lots of confluence in this...
I'm up there with you Simon. Good bar formations. But into busy areas. Quick profit type trades.
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Old Mar 30, 2009 12:32pm
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Well everyone knows the EJ weekly pin was an absolute beauty, but can the pros tell me what they think about this lower TF H1 pin which may continue the move down.
I don't normally trade the H1 so any thoughts appreciated ( i will feel quite excited if u tell me it is a good find - maybe i'm getting it ! )
Kind of ok find. Off a round number and the 38.2% fib. The key is to only take the ones at really good levels of confluence though.

There are too many good looking bar formations that will go against you real quick.

Take what Rac posts as an example. He wouldn't bother going short in that area at all. He'd ignore all signals all the way up to probably the 141.50-142.00 area where you are at deep fib retracement lines with multiple fib studies lining up. At the least. Throw in round numbers and weekly pivots etc and you'd have good reason to take an intraday trade. With practice. Gotta think quick and take spreads etc into account.

...and you are getting it. Just need chart time and pickier attitude.

Edit: oops . got the pairs mixed up. Look to GJ as my example.
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Old Mar 30, 2009 5:51pm
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Originally Posted by albchr View Post
OK, I've been on Google all day to find the definition of PPZ with no luck. From the conversations around it I've come up with two possibilities...

Potential Pivot Zone (my first guess) or Potential Profit Zone...
lol. Price Pivot Zone.

Areas where price shows history of support turning into resistance and vice versa. ....These are areas/zones. Not always one exact price point.

edit: beaten. Thanks FX
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Old Mar 30, 2009 7:04pm
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Originally Posted by av_fx View Post
....
....
My analogy to this trading is the PA bar is the most beautiful girl in a room. When the room is empty “space is there” you can make friends with the girl or may even get lucky with a date. High chances of a winning trade!! But when the room is full (lack of space) or has lot of good lucking guys around (Support and resistance) you have a more than 50 % chance of a let down. Losing trade!
....
Right.

...Now we need Mike to start an "Mbqb11 Women Thread"

"We attempt a set up only when there is great confluence.(i.e. Wearing nice clothes, Projecting Confidence, Desperate Target, etc)"

"My favourite set up is when we have two HOT women at the bar by themselves with plenty of space around them. ...This is the ideal set up, as we get to play them off of each other and create a situation where WE have the choice . Not THEM. The natural competitiveness between them creates good momentum going into the play, giving us a higher probability than if there was, say, another 'playa' beside them ready to hunt our stop and create traffic. To comfortably stay in the game, we place our stop loss over with the rest of our buddies , cell phone in hand ready and watching for the 'stop' signal. ...Just in case we luck upon some desperate, clingy, 'recently divorced' types..... "

"...Hi Ghous, Yeah no problem bud. Ask away! To answer your question: What I do to create the right tension is to leave the target immediately after getting her phone number. If possible, I like to have some female friends lined up ready to approach me immediately after I walk away and create the impression that I'm a very popular man. (These days I don't have to pretend. I'm swimmin' in the pips for starters! And wear lots of $$Bling$$!!!)..."
.
.
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Old Apr 1, 2009 9:29am
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Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
The answer lies with the "expectunity" - the term coined in the "Trade your way to financial freedom". In simple terms, "expectunity" = "RR expectancy" (win ratio) X "number of trade opportunities".....
"expectunity" . LOL ...Love it!
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Old Apr 1, 2009 9:26pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
wow thats a can of worms. old timers here would know what i mean.

i will just say this and if someone can dig up one of my rants about how account sizes have everything to do with who you will be as a trader then post it. actually i think some of it might be in post 1.

i will do some looking.

jim
Hope you don't mind if I throw in some thoughts on this one...

Anything below $10000 is certainly 'demo' like to me.

$30000 to $50000 is "Build Account" territory

You can't get away from the fact that anything less than $200000 is making this a big psychological challenge if you are wanting to start to make a living.

...Keyword being "Start".
.....Anything less puts too much pressure on you to earn just to pay the rent/bills and eat. That's too much stress which places you on a highly probable road to failure.

Sure you could 'beat the norm' with excellent returns, but who wants that pressure to have results?? ...Not me!
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Old Apr 1, 2009 9:52pm
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Originally Posted by Tmac View Post
I think this figure is a bit big and you can make a decent, heck a good living off an account far less than 200K with the proper MM and patience
Hi Tmac. I agree. You can.

Would you want someone to quit their job with just $50000 savings and throw that directly into a trading account to make a living off ? No you wouldn't.

You would have to have good experience, a proven record and ....let's face it... if there was another $50000 to $100000 sitting on the sidelines that you knew was there to cover family expenses etc you'd have much easier trading life where you could wait for good trades to come along.
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Old Apr 1, 2009 10:34pm
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Originally Posted by Tmac View Post
Patience is indeed a beautiful thing in forex. That and eliminating STRESS and emotion from your trades makes trading easy and that can only come from the proper MM.

Once you master these simple but necessary facts of forex account size is not as much of an issue. This of course is taking for granted you have also mastered A system by the time all the other above mentioned aspects have fallen into place.

how much one needs to live on will vary from person to person. No you never trade what you cannot afford to lose but I know a person that trades...
For a long while I've targeted %2 per month. That's where I'm comfortable at. I beat that nearly every time, mostly by multiples, but it's become a good conservative target that I'm comfortable to base recommendations on here.

I'm arguing 'Likely', You're arguing 'Possible'. I agree with everything you say, but there are a lot of people coming in here that won't make the necessary returns consistently needed for that account size to be a living. Eventually, maybe, but starting out, not probable. You have to allow for the lowest denominator. We all have different comfort zones with regards to risk size.
.
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Old Apr 1, 2009 10:48pm
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Originally Posted by Flem26 View Post
bundy just noticed the your signature quote at bottom . . . it's speaking to me . . . I agree
Glad you finally noticed bud.

I've been trying to get the message to you for weeks. lol
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Old Apr 1, 2009 10:58pm
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Just one more thought on the account size to go live.

IF, this is a big IF, but IF you can make 30% a year return (I don't know if anyone here does this or not, if so, please say so, it would be inspirational) on a $200,000 account, that is $60,000 pretax.

That is a nice income, but far from great, where I live....
You can go 'Live' with less. And build your account.

But you can see when the sums are done, that $200000 is actually a starter amount, where you aren't buying Ferraris and cool fishing boats for the weekends or supporting a large family comfortably. It get's you an income that get's you by. Depending on mortage etc.

I like your $500,000 minimum, but you can trade as a side line to your normal job with $50000 comfortably.

Edit:
Should point out too that if all your profits are going into expenses, than your account won't be growing either. Which is also the goal.
.
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Old Apr 1, 2009 11:25pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
bundy is giving the cold hard facts....
Ahaaaa! I know your game now. ....You're collecting "Post 1" credits. j/k

Awesome post Mike. Very VERY well said.
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Old Apr 2, 2009 8:57am
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Originally Posted by PipGator View Post
The USD/CAD pinbar created a tug-of-war battle in my brain. When I got home from work last night I read this forum as usual and saw a couple of posts regarding the USD/CAD pinbar. I then looked at my chart and decided that it was a good opportunity after performing my rookie analysis. The pinbar had bounced off of a nice PPZ, had fib confluence, we recently had a BEOB on the weekly chart and there seemed to be a decent amount of space.

I logged into my trading account and placed an order to sell @ 1.2656 with first TP @ 1.2510 and second TP @...
A good trade sticks out like a sore thumb. To you.

...If you're not in the trade , you can't stress over it being a dumb 'over-trading' choice.

You took the right decision at the end to "just wait for something nicer".
Do that more often.
.
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Old Apr 2, 2009 7:18pm
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Originally Posted by desperate View Post
hi all

just looking at the eur/gbp and it could be a pinbar when it closes got a hour to go,so im just wanting to know if it is a good setup
1 ;is of a ppz,s 2;a trendline 3;of the 50% fibs 4;has a bit of space

thanks john
Definitely only on a break high. I'd keep an eye on 0.9215 area for trouble (Quite large zone). So manage your trade wisely.

Personally I see a head & shoulder pattern that's just broke downwards though.
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Old Apr 2, 2009 7:32pm
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Originally Posted by desperate View Post
hi

,ive heard with a head and shoulders pattern ,if right shoulder breaks the left shoulder it takes out all the stops ,which mean people think to go short now,and the money makers push it up

justed watched a video on it a while ago ,i think thats what it mean,t , might be wrong

thanks john
That can happen, yes.

It's one of those set ups where, personally, I like to wait for the pull back and then wait for confirming PA to form for that very reason. It (stop hunts) can happen with many many chart patterns. Lots of victims (lol) are in on the well known pattern.
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Old Apr 2, 2009 7:38pm
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Originally Posted by desperate View Post
hi im like u still learning,but the body of the pb just has to be inside the candle next to it,doesnt matter bullish or bearish,enter ten pips above the high of pinbar

thanks john
It can be better to see a favourable close in relation to the open IMO. Goes for all bars. (I'm even happier when a close beats the previous bar's close.) Not a hard and fast rule, but I tend to hesitate more when it's not favourable.
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Old Apr 2, 2009 7:55pm
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Originally Posted by oltciter View Post
If you go down on eurgbp 4h chart you will see another intersting setup ! I think!
Good chart oltciter.

You should probably place your buy stops clear of an area such as the one I've marked out on this copy of your chart.

Also note the horizontal line I drew further up. Shows another possible stumbling block. When you reach this little price flip point you may want to manage your trade. Your boxed zone could probably have been a little larger to cover it.
.
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Old Apr 2, 2009 8:01pm
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Originally Posted by desperate View Post
thank u bundy for your comments ,ill take them on board

thanks john
No worries John. Anything to mess with your head. ..lol
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Old Apr 3, 2009 3:24am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
lol I think that is what caused it having a few too many drinks on tuesday night when I felt it coming on.
Hey! ...Synchronized laughing fellas!! ................................... ................................... ...........................

................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... .......

...ummmm.... yeah

...Those wacky temperature changes are the killer for sure.
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Old Apr 3, 2009 3:29am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Someone talks about drinking and bundy shows up. Interesting.
lol. ....It's funny how I've given that impression over the past couple of years!

I'm not a big drinker, BTW.
XMas / New Year time I enjoy myself though.
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Old Apr 3, 2009 4:39am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
Thats the one ... didnt take it at this stage so i'm slightly annoyed.
But i know it happens
I wouldn't beat yourself up about that pin Pipmyride. It was pretty ordinary to my mind. ...And you can't be in on every fast move, either.
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Old Apr 3, 2009 8:46am
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
I can surely call you Nostradamus of the market lol Spread on my ibfx does not increase, something weird. Usually it would increase like crazy.
What would be a surprise result?

The outcome couldn't have been anything unexpected. Not at the moment anyway.

I don't trade NFP. Couldn't care less. But it's always interesting to look at.
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Old Apr 3, 2009 8:57am
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
I assumed that no one is interested, less volume, no reason to increase spread. I dont trade NFP too due to my lack of knowledge but seeing how Rac analysis looks very very interesting.
Less volume is usually a factor in wider spreads.
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Old Apr 6, 2009 7:48pm
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Originally Posted by urchman View Post
not really sure though but this looks good for a possible reverse h&S.... lets see how The Pa breaks through the horizontal and diagonal trend line for a move down. still need more tots from u senior members.
Not a head and shoulders urchman. There's a lower low to the left for starters.

Trading that pattern would be the same as trading a bullish pin who's high and low are encapsulated within a range/traffic.
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Old Apr 6, 2009 8:19pm
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Originally Posted by frankm7 View Post
Mike, does it fail the be a PB because of its really tiny nose?
Because we would have preferred the close to be within the previous bars range.

Edit: Mike beat me. Teach me for not finishing the post off before taking my phone call. lol
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Old Apr 6, 2009 8:53pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
What am I saying . . . . your videos come pretty darn close.
Stop you guys!! Too much Mikey ego stroking in too short a time.

Now I'm going to have to send some barmaids around to his joint to bitch slap him back to reality!
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Old Apr 6, 2009 9:36pm
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Originally Posted by Blackinc View Post
I'm trying to work out if thats a good thing or a bad thing...
You're right. I'm going to have to set up some pre-emptive bitch slappings for myself.
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Old Apr 7, 2009 9:39am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Your sig Bundy....

It makes me sick

Why wouldn't you just let us know who you're talking abt, you're dragging all of us along
Haven't you seen the movie "The Sixth Sense" ?

Have to admit. It was playing on my mind that people here may take it personally. lol
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Old Apr 8, 2009 6:39am
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Hi Marco,

Myself, I'll consistently look for potential trouble spots. You can try and select trades where there is a clear run behind them with little pause. Kind of the 'Space' as Mike will mention. The two mostly go hand in hand anyway. The chart below shows how the pin was preceded by a pretty clear run down to it. It's pretty much a no brainer after a while that these little areas are what you should be learning to sit up and take notice of, for management purposes (They work well when they line up with a fib or two too)

You'll have to study your charts. I can't show you every little spot on the chart that's good for managing your open trade. It's pretty obvious after a while that you can't get greedy with your "sit up and take notice" levels. Set an alert. (You get better at filtering down to most likely first targets later on)
You should have an idea of these management areas before entering the trade, as you have probably realised.

Don't be worried about taking profit early and getting stopped out on your BE part. Your building your skills up. You shouldn't be trying to break pip haul records. Taking the right trades and trading this way get's you cruising along well enough to stay in business for the long haul. Gotta start somewhere!

,B

Edit: I'll make you another 'not so clear and easy' example to go along with this. Give me a while to find one. Re-Edit: Actually no I won't, just remembered a favour I have to put time into. lol ...Others will throw examples up anyway probably. Might do something later on.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Marco View Post
Hi there,

I'm trading daily bars and as most of you try to move my stop to breakeven ASAP. I'm doing well with that approach lately but I don't have a consistent approach how to do it, yet.

Maybe some of you do...when do you move your stop to breakeven when trading a daily pin?

One way to do it consistently is to move to breakeven when the next support/resistance is reached, but sometimes that next support/resistance is a long way to go.

Another way is to do it, once 1/3 of the initial risk is reached or something like that...or X pips but...
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Old Apr 8, 2009 7:06am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Hi Marco,
...
...
,B

Edit: I'll make you another 'not so clear and easy' example to go along with this. Give me a while to find one. Re-Edit: Actually no I won't, just remembered a favour I have to put time into. lol ...Others will throw examples up anyway probably. Might do something later on.
LOL ....Here I am forgetting my current trade on the very same pair!!

I was watching around the 23% area on the second smallest (Purple) fib I've got on my chart. I've just closed half and set BE (around 1.5148) . It shot straight through the level I was watching and got to the most likely first target. .... It did pause on the way, but not in a way that had me convinced.

Chart...

Edit:
DAMN... Closed wrong half manually. I had a profit target on the other half. Forgot. Oh well.... Out of the trade . Full profit. NEXT!!
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Old Apr 8, 2009 5:44pm
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Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Hi All

I quite like the Daily pin on NzdJpy.

Good formation, long(ish) tail and small body

Its with the recent up trend and touches on the 50% Fib from the swing low on 30/03 to swing high on 06/04.

To me it looks like price has broken through resistance around the 5675 area and is testing it from above.

Any comments?

Attachment 230809
Yep. Great set up. I'll be in it.

Any Base system playas out there?? ( I add the 200 EMA to it)
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Old Apr 8, 2009 6:20pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
damn elves... hiding everywhere ...
lol.
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Old Apr 8, 2009 6:21pm
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Originally Posted by Jduester View Post
I can remember Bundy saying that at some point a trader must be able to pass on trades that would make them money, because it doesn't follow what they are trying to do through their plan. I think this has a reasonable probability to get to 1.34. But the space and location doesn't fit for me. Comes back to everyone trades differently... some will win, some B/E, some lose (assuming pin breaks).

Josh
When your not as comfortable in the first place, it just makes it more stressful when you see it go against you.

I'm about less stress.
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Old Apr 9, 2009 4:46am
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Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
hi yawl, lately iv seen a lot of posted charts with trendlines drawn in. many of these have been drawn incorrectly,Great care should be taken when drawing trendlines,especially if one is to use them as confluence.
there are two viable ways to draw TLs,one is from the extreme lows and the other is from close price.mixing the two methods to create one TL makes no technical sense. price cannot cut through the TLs,if they are to make technical sense.so called "best fit" Ls are only good for visual reference only.
thanx,
jon
I use both. At the same time. Very successfully.
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Old Apr 9, 2009 6:05am
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Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
thats my view also.any TL analysis should be done using both.
im still learning how to trade from them effectivly,3rd touch etc,but i love to play the breaks and retrace.
if youde like to pm me with some ideas you use your more than welcome
jon
EDIT: come on euro ....come on euro...!!
I wouldn't want to force anyone to complicate their job by using both. You don't need to to trade profitably. I've just come to use many many many tools to help me feel the beat of the market and get really good entries.

PMs no good. Can't send charts in them. lol So....

Chart below:

This one to get another (tighter) parcel in on NZD JPY daily pin (Add to an opening pin break position I have)
Limit buy at Orange dashed line. Stop placed below pink/magenta line (drawn on close prices)

(BTW, As I write this post, this trade is now running free . First half closed. That profit will cover the loss on my original stop. ...For that position. If it flys up up and away, I'm positioned very nicely.)

Depending on opening or closing I'll choose the appropriate closest or furthermost line for the target, or entry, or stop etc.

There is a BEST preferred method. Clear trend lines based on bar extremes (not close chart). The ones where EVERYONE sees them and are itchy to use the break/pullback. Especially in the wind-up flag / wedge trades and so forth. ...Just ask Mikey.

Again, I don't think anyone starting out should complicate things by doing the obsessive rubbish I often do here. K.I.S.S. people.

Edit: Oops ...first chart pic didn't have coloured lines. Re-posted.
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Old Apr 9, 2009 8:59am
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This is a breauty stuff, bundy. by the way, you didn't draw the uptrend line which could be connected through the wicks, did you ignor it on purpose or had a different focus?

Focus was the Daily pin. Wanted to capture that retrace. (Or one more attempt later on down further if it failed)

To be honest, I didn't think to draw the up trend line at that point. (came later on though.)

My thoughts were:


...Should at least hit the 38.2% retrace. ...Ok that's close to the floor trader pivot (mid level) , ......and those EMAs. Looks like there will be a support/trend line there. ....Drew them. ...I just had to wait for an alert at 58.00.

When that alarm went off later on I set a limit buy at the point on the closest trend line option that line up with the current 1 hour bar. 2 identical orders. Stop below furthermost line by 10 pips. (Would have adjusted these limit orders bar by bar every hour if I had to. Up till a point ,of course)

Was all about the daily trade. Makes it easier to plan.
.
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Old Apr 9, 2009 9:35pm
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Originally Posted by mrsingha View Post
Morning all,
NU looks good but none of the other Yen pairs have similar setups.
As they all tend to move in unison would this not put any doubt in your mind?

Steve.
It can. BUT it's the NZD that was moving. This pair gave the opportunity I liked amongst the NZ pairs.

Not an A++ trade by a long shot, but great chance of getting some profit locked in.

Sorry mate, I missed your post originally , just seen it then.

Chart...
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Old Apr 9, 2009 10:16pm
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Default Interesting to observe.

Interesting to observe things like this.

Not going to add any more to my position here. Very happy where I am.

The spread is crap this time of day, otherwise I'd put in a quick order to take a few pips and, depending on PA, keep some on just like yesterdays "add to".

Doing a lot of watching of things like this gives you a good understanding of support/resistance. i.e. Which ones should I ignore, which ones are going to be brick walls and which ones will give an opportunity for a free trade.

Sorry about the five minute stuff. Just the way it's worked out at the minute. At least it gives a few hangers on here something to look at. Actually keen to get some sun. So back to the larger TFs now. Beautiful day outside.

.
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Old Apr 9, 2009 11:28pm
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Originally Posted by krue View Post
bundy, many screen hours before getting a good feel about S/R?
How long's a piece of string? lol

You get a big head start by coming to this thread.

Just stick to the main levels for your trades and the rest just comes over time.
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Old Apr 13, 2009 5:39pm
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A few possible Base system trades on the dailies for those who watch.

AUD CHF looks good to check out later.
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Old Apr 13, 2009 8:33pm
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Originally Posted by Forex007 View Post
Bundy, what is "Base system" (didn't find any info at FF)?
It's a system based around playing around/off of a couple of Base EMAs.
It's something Jim's developed over many years for himself and is described in the PF.

It's not my place to describe the system, but Mike posted a reference to one of Jim's posts that had one key component. The post was in the past week.
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Old Apr 14, 2009 7:01am
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Originally Posted by mrsingha View Post
Would you guys consider this a valid enough retrace/retest of the daily/weekly ppz to go long (if it breaks above 0.73) or would you only be looking at a daily tf for that?

Steve.

Edit. Similar setup on AUDJPY also.
Valid. You're spotting it right. My opinion would be to go with A/J though. It has just a little more room to get to at least a little bit of profit. The AU, although I believe it's a very good sign for a long, I'm not too keen on opening into an area that has little space around it (If you're basing your trade around the extremes of the pin). Can you see what I'm talking about? ....When comparing the two.... one allows more breathing room over the other. Just something I like to see.

Edit: Very nice looking pin otherwise.
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Old Apr 14, 2009 7:19am
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Mrsingha,

An A/J chart explaining/showing the possible barrier. The A/U chart on the other hand is already at one of these points. You would be correct to wait for a break above 73.00. ...Probably a good break. At least the A/J on the other hand has a 'magnet' to pull it along to for starters.

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Old Apr 14, 2009 7:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scot Pippin' View Post
This month has been pretty quiet for me thus far I'm 1-1-1(be) for April trades. So I definately am trading less, which was a goal for this month, but I also feel like that A+ trade hasn't shown its' face. Currently I am down on the month so I am hoping to catch a no brainer in the next couple weeks.
They happen. Well done man.

I know that I let A+ trades go by every now and then because I just don't feel it' at the time. Who cares. If you wait, like you're willing to do, they pop out at ya one week when they are really good.
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Old Apr 15, 2009 5:58am
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Originally Posted by laromanell View Post
what I mean that there was no change in underlying currencies, in this case GBP and JPY. the pair just draw the pin bar out of nowhere(basically there should be no pin bar), because they are both related through usd. check your lfx charts you'll understand what I'm talking about.
The chart represents what the market participants were willing to trade Gbp and Yen against each other at. Simple as that.

Correlations come about from a liquid market equalising and closing up any discrepancies that can be taken advantage of. The price point isn't created through a solid unchangable law of physics. It can still create an independent signature.

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Old Apr 15, 2009 6:58am
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Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
hi bundyraider, so would you say the pin bar is just as valid as any other??
thanx jon
Sheet.... I'm having trouble figuring out who's talking about which post. lol

My post was more about keeping analysis on charts simple. You can watch correlations if you like, but a really good tidy formation in the perfect location is a goer for me. Who cares about the correlation with the majors. Usually when there is issues with other pairs and correlations the formation (most of the time) looks a little 'off' as well.

Take that first pin marked 'A' on Jaroos chart....


Take a look at my post at that time. I rarely post set-ups here these days. That one I had something to say because it was that good. Something that looks like that I don't give a hoot what the other pairs are saying, it shows in the formation that no external forces were working against it. To me. That includes correlation with some other pair. It wouldn't have looked that good if say 'cable' had a major level to work against at that exact date. In that particular case , that one chart was all I needed to look at to decide on the trade.

The formation Jaroo marked as 'C'...


That rebound says A LOT to me. Especially when taking into account what started at the pin 'A'. I didn't trade it ( was heading away) , but I sure as hell knew that any existing long position was looking pretty comfortable when I seen that baby. ...Still a valid pin yes... Lower grade though, had an area just above to contend with (outside bar 2 periods later topped out exactly where we'd all have said was a potential trouble spot ...138.00). I agree pretty much with Jaroo on that one and also about how to trade it.

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Old Apr 16, 2009 6:16am
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
Denarii, Sherm, Billy and Jaroo, thank you for your observations concerning this trade on EUR/AUD. I do not take a trade unless I have the balls to post it here on the king of all forex threads. Here is my approach to this trade.

I will initiate a short position at 1.8331. This is between the 50% and 61.8% fib levels on a retrace of this bar. My stop loss will be 1.8431. This trade will risk 2% of my account balance. I consider this a moderately conservative entry as a more conservative approach would require me to babysit the smaller tf's at...
Riding with ya man. You seen what I seen.

Gone for a bigger SL than you @ 1.8515 , also crappier entry @ 1.8295. Orders been there all day. lol

Awesome call on your entry , dude. 1 pip (so far) from IBFX high. lol
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Old Apr 16, 2009 6:29am
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Originally Posted by Schneeule View Post
Hi,
this one was a a+ pin I cought few hours ago.
I am looking for 1.475 if it gets there.

This thread is gold.
Probably good divergence there as well mate.
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Old Apr 16, 2009 7:27pm
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Originally Posted by fxScavenger View Post
Cool KissFan,

Your help - much appreciated.

I will trudge on through 1800 plus pages. If you think of any highlites I should
skip to - (any summations would be helpful - this part to anybody who wants to help speed me along)

Also I'm a bit of a MQ4 programmer - anybody posted any EA's or Indicators specific to PB or PB zones worth looking at.

I can be a helpful PIN Head.
jduester Posted a great index. Jim has linked to it in the first post somewhere..
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Old Apr 16, 2009 11:41pm
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Originally Posted by jpa0827 View Post
Hey everyone,

How do i know if a pin bar is at a swing high or a swing low point? I highlighted in blue what I think the swing high and swing low zones are. For example in the chart there is a pin bar 3 bars from the right. Would that be considered at a swing high. I have read through the most of the thread and looked at james16 guest material, but having trouble knowing if I am doing this right in real time. It is so much easier to ID a pin bar after price confirms it. Any help would be appreciated.

Thanks,

Jm
Hi JM,

That bar is against a consolidation zone. ...It's part of a pullback. Swing high/low is after at least a short trend.

Posting some examples in a few minutes. Might just take a sec to check it over.

.
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Old Apr 17, 2009 12:01am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Hi JM,

That bar is against a consolidation zone. ...It's part of a pullback. Swing high/low is after at least a short trend.

Posting some examples in a few minutes. Might just take a sec to check it over.

.
Marked bars....

10 - Inside Bar.

11 - Pullback/ continuation pin (not really swing high), bad trade into yellow boxed zone under "10"

12 - Kind of swing high. Has the yellow boxed consolidation below it to with first. Same as 2 (mentioned on chart pic)

3 -
Another Pullback / Continuation pin. Nose too short, and worse... it against a "blockage" caused by the 3 preceding bars.

4 - NICE looking bar. Broke low. But in Sideways area. Could make money (if on a daily chart) technically. Very poor trade because of location.

5 - Strong nose pulling back to high that was at same level as number "4". Wouldn't trade it. Too short a distance from trigger above it's high up to the high of the preceding bar about 15 pips on this hour chart. Stop would be over 100 pips away. And then what about spread and slippage?? ...Pretty much in sideways traffic like MANY pin-like bars are.

7 - Pretty pathetic in the nose length department ( doesn't protrude very far below the preceding bars low.) Many other reasons not to take this one. Mostly the ugly PPZ zones around this area in recent day. You should be able to see this for yourself if you look.

8 - Facing the wrong way and also almost an inside bar. These "facing the wrong way" bars are what we are trying to avoid when we say swing high/low. A bullish pin should only be at a swing low. And vice versa. This is a Bearish pin-looking bar (NOT A PIN!!) at a Swing low.

9 - Close.... But NO cigar. ...MUST close within the preceding bars price range. IF it did... It WAS at a swing low BUT would most likley be stopped at the same level that rejected bar "8" (%61.8 line )

Out of AAALLL the bars here that 'look' like pins. Number "6" is the only type you should focus on until you are good at. For now. They are the easiest. I say on the chart that it's not the best location, but location is OK. It's the area below it that means you have to be quick to take some profit and set the rest of your position to break even. There was enough room going down to that white line (50% retrace on weekly chart , just so you know). An even better trade would have a clearer run up to that pin. In a perfect world, that run would have NO consolidation. lol

EDIT: 1 Hour chart here is a LOT harder due to having to be very quick and experienced. Spread and slippage has to be taken into account , and often leaves the trade not worth taking. Daily... You have soooo much more going for you if you found a good set up. And less stress.

.
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Old Apr 17, 2009 12:55am
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Originally Posted by jpa0827 View Post
Bundyraider,

Thanks for the info, that helped a lot. That's why I love this forum. I can ask a question and get a very complete answer. People like you on this forum, make this such a great place to learn trading. It is greatly appreciated.

Jim
You're welcome bud.

We're all giving back what we've gained from being here.

Throw up that chart too, right now...
The break high of that "9" bar stopped exactly where my post said it would .
....What a great validation of what Jim teaches about how to trade here.

Reading through this monster thread is well and truly NOT a waste of time.
.
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Old Apr 17, 2009 8:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Riding with ya man. You seen what I seen.

Gone for a bigger SL than you @ 1.8515 , also crappier entry @ 1.8295. Orders been there all day. lol

Awesome call on your entry , dude. 1 pip (so far) from IBFX high. lol
.
First TP . Stop moved to BE.

Two traders. Two different entries and exits and stop loss profiles. Both profitable.

This could go to 1.8000 or even 1.7655 yet. ...But it don't really matter with my trade fully covered and in profit already.
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Old Apr 17, 2009 8:31am
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
A 100 pip TS is not going to be enough for this pair. How are you managing this trade? Thanks!
Live by the Daily . Die by the Daily.

I would have loved to add more on at those 4hr or even 1 hour pins , but was asleep (actually I woke up at that exact point ....if only I'd known why the universe did that at the time. lol)

Stop was set by daily. So position size was at my comfort level for managing by it too.
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Old Apr 17, 2009 8:58am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
It was a blind entry at the 50 fib retracement was it Bundy?
Traded the Outside bar the same way I would have if it was on the fifteen minute chart or whatever. %50 level looked good at the time. Coincides with weekly fib %50

I could have done better now that I've spent more time on that chart and noticed a couple of things I didn't earlier, but oh well, ...still halved the entry-to-stop distance (kind of) and that also gives a chance to take profit at the bar low which is high probability.
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Old Apr 17, 2009 9:10am
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Originally Posted by KissFan View Post
This will take some discipline for certain. So to be precise. You are at BE now?

K.I.S.S.

Draw Fib by OB. Add Fib to Retrace. Check out PPZ at the "perfect storm" Fib confluence of those two. I'm just above that @ 1.8275. For now. Actually thinking of moving to 1.8230 right now. Pretty sure we will hit 1.8000 zone. So with that confidence I don't want to get too close to the current price.
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Old Apr 17, 2009 9:36am
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OK Bundy! Thanks for your help.

K.I.S.S.
NP.

It's probably a little tricky to maximise profit on this one. That broadening consolidation we had is annoying. I'm ready to go to bed and not care about it right now. lol

The idea is to manage on the daily, so for me, I'm willing to give away a lot of pips (but low percentage of equity anyway) on this lower grade trade if I'm stopped out. Let's see if I still have a trade left on Monday and tuesday, where hopefully I get to have good stop worthy PA.

For you, Mikes volatility indicator stop would probably work well for a trade from the 1-hour.
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Old Apr 19, 2009 8:17am
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
A number of you have been demonstrating some interesting setups on GBPUSD and i would...
And look at that divergence.

Tools at the top over here too. There always is.

The financial meltdown isn't the scary bit. It's the future consequences of the so called measures to "fix it".

Like they say: Pay peanuts.....
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Old Apr 19, 2009 6:06pm
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Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
one more reason to short the gb..
h + s 1h chart. target coinsides nicely with the next ppz.???
You seen the H + S too?

This babies going down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx
This chart alone makes me wonder how long before 1.43 is due..
How are you deriving that target? Just the fib %50? I can see a clearer PPZ above that, so I'm presuming you expect it to gravitate the rest of the way to the 50%?
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Old Apr 19, 2009 8:22pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Monthly neutral bar is telling me traders are not fully committed to push it cable higher any time soon and for the target..
I didn't include chart. here it is:
(Note the target matches price close for March.)

p.s. what hipcio showed on his chart looks like a perfect arch too me.... and arches can be very profitable.., but what do I know...
.
Monthly close. Thanks man, that's what I was after. Missed it! Can usually see why you choose a level, but this one just didn't seem to have that last little ingredient. I looked at the weekly daily close line charts, but didn't go as far as the monthly. derrrr. lol

I like 1.4600 as the first target. ...For similar reasons to GJ Hook.
But then once we hit there, the chart won't look happy, so a push way lower would then seem inevitable. ....after the usual whipsawing. Things are looking very bearish for the pair.

BTW. You seen GBP AUD? Chart looks pretty on the 4hr.
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Old Apr 19, 2009 8:41pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
never traded g/a , so I don't have a 'feel' for it..
After looking it up , it turns out I never have either, and won't any time soon. LOL
Only one broker I have has the pair and I don't like using them.

That H + S . There's just way too much agreeing with it.
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Old Apr 20, 2009 6:53am
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Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi guys

Starting my 3 month period on the dailies /weeklies today as per james 16 methodology. Have scanned my charts on 18 or so pairs and do not see any setups at the moment. Just wondered if anyone has spotted any potential setups I may have missed? Resisting the temptation to move down to the 4hour!!

berti
Sounds good. You don't lose money being out of the market.

I've been involved in discussions about the strong cable short signals the past day and yet still missed taking advantage of it. Not willing to chase the market. It means waiting even longer for another trade.

Resisting that temptation to move down is a big deal mate. Never ignore the significance of being able to wait. It's a key trait you need to be successful.

If there were any set ups you missed on the daily, someone would have piped up. Believe me. There's lot's of us ready to post the really good set ups when they finally come along. They'll all come at once. You watch. lol
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Old Apr 20, 2009 7:31pm
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how about this one? location: swing-low, ascending tl, off of round# weekly ppz's, & looks like apple wanting to be picked. pa: good looking pb, long-nose, closed higher than open. space: next resistance on daily tf ~100-200 pips away. gbp did take a beating across the board today & uk economic data coming out on wed is not going to be good, but maybe good enough to bully the looney around?
I made a deduction to check this pair out because of the moves on Cad and Gbp based pairs the past day. I think you've done ok identifying a trade possibility,but I decided to pass for the same reasons Mike has mentioned. It's just one of situations where I know I'm risking a good straight run of winners if I took it. ...'A trade that's screwing with the gene pool' I suppose is a good way to put it! ...So not good enough for me either.
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Old Apr 20, 2009 7:39pm
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Hi ;-)
Where can I find some info about knife system ? I've heard there is only PF on it ? I would be grateful for an answer. Thx in advance.
Dziekuje bardzo
Hi Pakiestra,

It's based on the Vegas Tunnel Trading methods if you do a search for that.
I wouldn't want to devulge the Knife's additions, not my place, but if you check out the Vegas one you will be most of the way there, without the PF.

,Bundy
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Old Apr 20, 2009 7:49pm
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... I will do a search and see what's that stuff is about.
Was about to edit my post, but now that you've read it... There are .PDF documents attatched to the original threads somewhere. They'll be the right threads to check out.

Look up Dialist. He started the original threads I think. Pretty sure. ...And it was he who came up with the knife system additions anyway.
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Old Apr 20, 2009 8:05pm
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Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
congestion keeps this one from being an a+ trade & i only want to take those. even if it does work it still wasnt an a+ trade & i dont want to risk my money on anything that isnt. i have personally seen that there are plenty of them to go around and worth waiting for. if the both of you are passing on this, then so am i. thx guys.
Nothing wrong with marking out where you think it may go, where it'll pause along the way etc. You'll learn from observing still. I've marked out 1.8180

...but at the same time, when I went down to the lower time frames to check things out there, I just kept getting 8015, 8025, 8050, 8080 and so on. All these little PPZ flips that made it look too rough.
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Old Apr 21, 2009 9:46pm
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jarroo,

are you saying ... take profit on the first run as you see it lose momentum, say on the 15 or even 5 min chart with some of your position and then give the rest of your position more room to breathe.. with a wider SL , even as far back as the entry point?

That's what I'll do often.

And that Tweezer Top is at a Swing low.
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Old Apr 22, 2009 4:38am
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Hi Jon

Yes I was wondering about that rising trend line after the 4h pin formed on the USDCAD.
Playing the break would be the preferred option. Not one I'd trade aggressively. An order below 1.2300 would be even wiser.
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  #27721  
Old Apr 22, 2009 8:35am
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Originally Posted by mseaz9 View Post
After many months of demo being successful i took this 2 trade live off the daily close USD/CAD & EUR/CAD . N e one watching this...what are your thoughts with the PA right now..
The safest way to trade a pin is on the break of the low ( for bearish pin). So some of us are waiting for that.
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  #27722  
Old Apr 22, 2009 8:37am
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Will someone please send the men in white coats to the houses of parliament - the chancellor is clearly clinically insane

2009 - 3.5% negative growth
2010 - 1.25% positive growth
2011 - 3.5% positive growth

that doesn't even make sense - how do you go from -3.5% to +3.5% in a recession in the space of 2 years - it' just not feasible.

Sensible money would be selling GBP surely?
lol. I think they mean the decline's slope will improve by 1.25% of a degree.
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  #27865  
Old Apr 23, 2009 7:25am
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Originally Posted by onmyself View Post
anyone notice that ?
Hi O,

If you combined those two bars then the new combined bar would have it's close price around the middle of the range making it a neutral bar. ...On your providers chart at least.

On your ONE day chart you have an inside bar, btw
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  #27907  
Old Apr 23, 2009 4:56pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
yeah only watch CNBC for comedic relief too
LOL.

You can laugh at just about any "guru" economist the media drags out from under a cardboard box on the street lately.
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  #27908  
Old Apr 23, 2009 4:58pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Looks like some got in the Usd/Cad. Great job.

Pretty simple trade, who cares about News . . . I don't, nothing complicated about this classic J16 trade.

How fun is that.
Sorry I can't post a chart.
And once again illustrates the simplicity and win rate you get waiting for a break of the bar, eh J?
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  #27915  
Old Apr 23, 2009 5:56pm
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Originally Posted by gododdin View Post
I'm currently in this trade and earlier moved my stop to BE and took half profits....
Good job. (on the trade and the PPZs. )

I also mark in little minor PPZs ....at least around the trade.

Like so...

Small box is of most interest, and usually strongest. Big box marks out the entire zone that you should be watching.

There's another one I just noticed where price is sitting now (on your chart!), which probably coincides with the 50% retrace too. edit: in fact that larger box , I'd think about encompassing it too. Sometimes a larger zone sux, but price can bounce anywhere around there.
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  #27919  
Old Apr 23, 2009 6:24pm
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Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
Rac?s favourite..?
Depends if you're looking at the 4 hr ....daily ....or weekly brother.
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  #27929  
Old Apr 23, 2009 8:34pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I know... and it did, but I decided to take a day off today...
Looking to buy one of these.... Great hobby for the old man and boys.
Oh man... Lotsa fun. Someone sent a youtube link for a german scale C5 Galaxy the other day fricken awesome. Massive model. Four scale jet engines screaming away. lol
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  #27949  
Old Apr 24, 2009 4:15am
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Originally Posted by mrsingha View Post
Has anyone else ever noticed large variations in their MA's between demo and live accounts?
On my Alpari demo acc my current 150 & 365 EMA levels on USDCHF are 1.1398 and 1.1320 respectively. Yet on my Alpari live acc the same two MA's with identical settings are 1.1476 and 1.1410.
Does anyone know of a reason for this?

Steve.
Most likely one of them has missing data.

I know some demo servers I used in the past were hopeless when it came to filling in missing bars in history.
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  #27950  
Old Apr 24, 2009 4:17am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Like this monster....?
That's the clip.

Didn't know it was a C-17 . Look the same to me.
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  #27953  
Old Apr 24, 2009 4:33am
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Originally Posted by bjohn34 View Post
When watching 40-60 pairs, do you keep them all in one MT4 profile or divide them up into multiple profiles, perhaps by base currency, to make it more manageable?

I am increasing the number of pairs I watch, have everything in one profile now and easily get lost/confused in my old age.
I don't tile my windows any more. Not often anyway.

Currently I have....

Monthly Profile... All IBFX pairs on Monthly timeframe (derr. lol)
Weekly Profile... All IBFX pairs.
Daily ...
4 hour ... ....etc

I have one chart maximised so that when I use "Ctrl + F6" it flicks through all charts at that large maximised screen size.
Takes about 20 to 30 seconds to go through and scan for PA doing this. Once every day for daily. Once every 4 hours some days if I feel like it. Some times I'll do this every hour if it's a good trading day. Pen and note pad beside me to write down pairs of interest for trading analysys after the scan.

I set up the Monthly charts with Monthly fibs and PPZs and so on....

Copy the profile down to the Weekly... Then adjust the time frame for each chart ("Ctrl + F6" ...click "W1"...Ctrl +F6 ...click "W1" and so on) Takes about 10 secs. Every few weeks there might be fibs to add or something.
I then do the same for Daily.... Then 4 hour etc.

....This way my least cluttered Monthly charts help keep the other time frames relatively fresh every week or whatever, and all timeframe profiles then inherit the larger monthly Fibs and PPZs and so on. Every week I clean all my charts this way. Well most weeks anyway.

Only takes around ten to fifteen minutes to refresh all my profiles and adjust time frames ready for the next weeks ...umm.... 'waiting'.
.
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  #27958  
Old Apr 24, 2009 4:48am
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Originally Posted by alter View Post
Bundy, if you use CTRL F6, does it flick among the charts in random order or you can adjust the order you want?
I think the order is related to the order you have last visited each on in some way.

If I manually select the chart tabs in order then use ctrl F6 , it back tracks in reverse order , just like the the Back button in your browser. So it's user history based.

If someone know the keys to tab through in order I'd be stoked to know them too.

Don't use Shift + Ctrl + F6. At first I thought it was going forward in history , opposite to not using "Shift". But it was actually deleting charts!!! Didn't realise till there was only three or four charts left in my profile. lol
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  #27960  
Old Apr 24, 2009 4:51am
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Originally Posted by MPP View Post
I'm lazier than you though and can't be bothered to stretch far enough to reach F6 so i use Ctl + Tab does the same thing
Awww. Nice!!! Shift+Ctrl+Tab works too. ...Much better

Cheers bro!!
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  #27961  
Old Apr 24, 2009 4:55am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Too bad my limit buy @ 3090 never got filled....
Had an alarm set here too. Bummer.
Damn the moves on the last 4 hour open were quick too! (IBFX Charts)

Decided to turn the oven on for dinner, and missed a good trade. lol
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  #27967  
Old Apr 24, 2009 5:17am
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Originally Posted by alter View Post
EURCAD daily PIN, was stop out. We could expect this as it is common in last couple of months. Maybe it would be smart to take trades against the PIN, what do you think? Statistically speaking I would be much better off.
No. Don't give up on them man.

That was more of a pullback trade so not highest probability. A bit of bad luck that it didn't yield more profit. Actually , it's surprising that it didn't make it down to 1.5900. Just one pin that broke it's low but just didn't work out. It just stopped at the first chance it had. (Same spot caused problems on the way down . About the middle of this month.)

I'd suggest being a little pickier with your trades though. Until you gain confidence in them working. For example...

That pin looked real good. If it had been at the top of a longer up trend you'd be in the money for sure. (well... never 100%... but as sure as trading lets us be 'sure'. )
.
Don't let it screw with your head. You did ok.
.
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  #27985  
Old Apr 24, 2009 5:55am
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Originally Posted by alter View Post
Difference is in the result. If both are positive , both would be nice trades to take. As EURCAD was not, I see that we can always find reasons why the setup was not so good to take. After the fact of course.
Thank you for your opinion.
Persevere man. I understand where you are coming from.

By the way. Some of us put our sell stops below the 1.2300 level to take into account that round number. There are a lot (but simple) small things that can make the difference between profitable and unprofitable. Don't give up on it.

Even for a not so awesome position, I'm still surprised that pin didn't go a little further for you. (And for the record I didn't trade it. I chose the U/C trade in the same way Jaroo distinguished between the two.)

Stick around.
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