Have kind of lurked occasionly. Family business got very busy mid year (our peak season) Couldn't find the patience for a while.
Took a while to get back to the swing of the charts again. Isn't it amazing how much you rely on having a 'feel' for the price action on top of your knowledge?! LOL
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The commercials are going long too which was one of the reasons I went short.
I've got a COT subscribtion somewhere! Occasionly look at them. Just payed the sub too. Can't remember the link for the minute. LOL
The idea I have for the trade this time is the close Stop Loss you can set. A pin bar , set on a Tom DeMarke line, Stop on other side.
Even if we only make it to the 38.2% ret, I'm almost at 2:1 reward. (Thus the small parcell) (The spread screwed it a little.)
For a short trade there is no close stop area I would be comfortable using just yet.
If this indeed breaks down and then returns to that trend line, I'd be happy to do the inverse of what I have done this time. And definetly will if the price action is a compliment to that idea.
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Pin off of first %38.2
System trade.
Off range support.
Pair currently in strong downtrend.
Targetting 155.40 area for a bit of profit taking.
Currently, from how we look now, (bouncing off the deeper Fib lines of the short up wave) , I've come to know this pattern as a reversal pattern. Will ONLY be confirmed by the top (or pin in this case) being broken. Could be the beginning of a larger retracement.
This isn't the case UNTIL it happens. So I'm sticking with my trade for now. Nothing worse than second guessing yourself out of a good profit!!
The stop on my add-to is behind the pin. Small position little risk. If there is an even better setup AFTER the failure I'll get in again. We never did make it to the BETTER %38.2 retrace (as opposed to the little one included in the first post) Guys on the trading desks seem to hate it when that happens! They'll often make sure it does!! LOL
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Btw - stay off that 15m...1h just gave a much nicer one higher ;p
I LOVE the 15m though!
Don't worry! ...I trade from the top down.
I judge candidates for trades from the higher time frames. Looking at possible targets , known reaction areas and price bar setups etc. I've gotten to know the patterns on the smaller time frames quite well. Fine tuning entries and stops. Love it!
This trade didn't work out. By having the 15min in front of me though, I DID see the possible reversal pattern just after the add. (When it failed to get past the deep fib ret points)
...Alerted me enough to look for a wind down on my main trade. 303 points in the end. Yum! (minus the failures of course!) Missed the bottom by around 150 pips. But who cares!!!
This combined with a mutha load in GBPJPY trades has give me my best ever pip haul in 1 week. It's just happened to work out that way.
The reversal pattern (i've been calling them "rising W bottoms".LOL) at time of writing was a good trade if I had of taken it. Good for more than a hundred pips from the break point. Have seen this particular one a lot on Cable. Wasn't sure how this pair would react.
This pair has further to go down. In my opinion. Maybe after a retracement week?? We'll see. Enough for this week though. I'm sleeping in tomorrow! In fact, should be in bed now!!
.
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raczek did you stopped out on GY or still in that trade?
i am -300 pips
That pair can bite you hard.
What's more important, though, is what does 300 pips mean to your account?
It's exactly the same as any other pair. If you set your trade so that -300 pips is %1 of your account, then it becomes "just another trade" . Some don't work out.
I feel for you though.
I undid about two weeks hard work once by making a sizing mistake on GBP/JPY! Rushed in head first to catch the move.
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Just a reminder as to why there is NOTHING WRONG WITH HIGH TIMEFRAMES.
For anyone still having trouble with the temptation to trade 'faster' on the shorter time frames , I have one good tip!
Grab a notepad and draw up two columns.
Mark one 'Profit', and one 'Loss'. (...believe me, this is worth it. )
Scroll through the various time frames counting pinbars.
Put a mark in the 'Good' column whenever a pin is followed by a useful/profitable move. Mark the other column whenever the pin is a failure. Ignore pins that you know (Or SHOULD know) are in the wrong place. i.e. Bearish pin in the MIDDLE of a down move etc.
This wont take as long as you think it might and it's extremely worth it. Do this for Dailies, 4 Hourlies, 1 Hourlies and 15 minute charts. Go through say 6 months to a year on the hourly, 1 - 2 years on the 4 hour etc. You don't need to go through a mind numbing amount of history to get the point.
You'll get a great insight into why the smaller time frames are very much a case of playing with fire.
As a bonus, you'll also be elightened as to why money management and risk are such a vital ingredient in becoming successful. Anything below 1 hour screws with your odds. You don't particulary need that!!
(Speaking of odds. Try this if you like... Do the same again for one of your hourly charts, but this time, use a complementry bar/candle as a filter. i.e. wait for a bearish bar after a bearish pin. One that breaks the pin's low. Taking the best ones that haven't moved too far . Watch what difference that can make to your odds. )
And that's BEFORE adding confluence etc!
If you think this contradicts my statements on 15 min charts in a few posts I've got here. ...Well... ....Yeah. It does!! LOL
....Honestly. I get away with it only through LOTS of screen time being clocked up and it's more hard work than any of us probably needs. ....Currencies and the 15 min / 5- min charts always seem a LOT harder than in other markets too. If you aren't in the habit, keep it that way!
Another thing Seeks touched on in his post above. Don't trade against a weekly pin. ...Not just that.... Trading from the top charts down is always a good move. You'll see possible support resistance clearer for starters. I made this mistake late last week. Not leaving anough room for a trade to get into profit quickly. (GBP/JPY is STILL scurrying around the same support area!)
Cheers,
B
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but as i know raczek is a pro and took this pin... and i think this was really a perfect pin... no?
It's a fantastic pin Giraia!
NO ONE knows where we will be tommorrow, next week or next month. Not even the big boys. The pros know, that to make money over time, they need to find techniques that give them the upper hand over the course of their trading year.
Why'd the pin fail?
...To be a smarty, ...I still think we have lower to go in the Yen pairs from here (don't trade this thought though!!) . ( Check out USD/YEN. It's looking like hitting 102.00 now.)
The better question to ask is: Why did we get a pin in the first place?
All the Yen pairs I've looked at have had major support areas, trendlines and popular moving averages to contend with where they are now ( ..well were earlier) . We got a pin because lots of people believed we were going to turn around here. And that's what we wanted!! We want as many people as possible to agree with us.
That's what makes strong price action like pins so great!
Can anyone bring up a yearly chart for this pair? I can't, but I think you'd find a YEARLY pin!!
Can we see the head and shoulders pattern on the daily?
Traditionally a H & S pattern gives as a target an equal distance from the break out as you get from the top of the head to the neckline. That would be around 92!!!!
BUT we have the 100% equal distance A-B C-D pattern target at around 99.00 or so to contend with as well, which is also a %61.8 level (I don't have a good charts on this pair though) . And then the support area just below it at around 98.00.
Lot's of possible targets if a good short trade presents itself somewhere.
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It wasn't until I reduced these entries to almost nonexistant size and stopped more and more to do them that my trading picked up.
That's pretty much a carbon copy of me.
And those small gains add up a hell of a lot faster then you think they might. ... Did someone say compounding??
---
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
Oh and since raczekfx mentioned it - I'm just starting out as well. I don't think I would any time soon categorize myself as a "pro", either. Just because you're actually making something of it doesn't automatically make you a pro
But then I have very far fetched and strict definitions of a pro...basically a superhuman idea
I agree with that too...Nahhhhh... Screw that beyatch!! I'm a Pro!!!!!
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Yeah I haven't quite added BUOB as a staple to my trading yet, so I would rather wait for a retracement and miss it and get back in on the short side if things set up. But James put out a video recently on how deadly this OBs can be. I have to do more work with them before adding them to my toolbox
Have been trading OBs A LOT recently. A real killer in shares and commodities.
When switching back to candles you can see the best ones straight away.
They stick out like dogs balls!
Of course, they work best when coming off support/resistance/MAs and so on. Which seems to be more critical with currency pairs.
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Not Forex, but it's a really good example of a trade with negligable risk.
Doesn't have to be an A+ pin for it to work in a case like this. The potential pay off is large enough that I don't even have to risk %1. Actually gone for %0.5!!!
The best scenario is a continuation upwards past the peak. More than likely a LONG way past that pre-pullback peak. Target 1 for me is the %61.8 retrace. Taking half profit and letting the rest run free and naked through the cool summer breeze..... ....<aaaaaahhhhhh>
...AND it's just hit that first TP then.
I have the rest on a stop just below the pin. If it fails I'm actually a little in profit. Having a free trade means walking away and checking on things later. Absolutely no stress.
This will be interesting. Often this same pullback, on a larger scale, will repeat itself later as the larger timeframes develop. LOL
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No need to have a heart attack everytime the chart retraces against you!
Current status...
This market reacted to the 38.2% line on the daily chart.
I've learnt to watch these areas for "fake" price action. Or weak price action. This turned into a pin on the hourly chart. As I said, I knew some kind of reaction was likely, and the pin was positioned poorly anyway. Irrelevent when the market was closed to me anyway!
What also makes this easy to live with, is the stop on my "free trade" is now moved to a 50 point guaranteed profit . ...Plus previous proceeds , makes for a reeaally easy trade to let run in that breeze. lol
Risked 17 points. Currently up 170. ...almost . lol
When I've got more experience with this index , I'll increase my risk percentage. Maybe later in the year. For now though ,it makes it fun.
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I'm relatively new to candlesticks and price action though this what I see. Your comments are appreciated.
Hi Jor.
To add to Mikes post, heres some trade considerations.
Good pin, in a lower grade position.
Would be a good candidate for a trade, but...
Pros: *Strong bounce off of a fibonacci confluence area. Shows a good reversal of sentiment during that bar. *Nice looking pin, all out by itself. i.e. not sunken within the previous price action. *We know we are in a strong downtrend and that we have possibly just had a small rally. ( a weak 'pro'! LOL)
Cons: *We've been heading down for a while and have now hit long term moving averages and support/resistance areas. *It's coming not long after a strong reversal upwards (Shown by the arrow below.)
On the 4 hour chart you can see a definite double bottom (chart 2).
If this had revealed itself as a daily pin going the OTHER way AND at the bottom of that previous downtrend, it'd be a very high grade pin.(as explained in chart 1)
*Possible support from top of double bottom 'centre' rally high.(blue line on chart 2) *Possible support from down sloping trend lines. One likely line shown on chart 2. here?
It (the pin) still has it's significance, but the prospects for a good run are lower.
Even because of that , I'd be looking to get out quickly, or at least cover my costs quickly.
A valid trade maybe to aim for the Ellipse area in chart 2. THAT'S IF our risk/reward adds up.
What worries me here is that horizontal area (blue line) above the double bottom. There's not enough room between our current position and there, 120 pips, and your stop on the otherside of the pin at 230 pips!! You are risking twice of what you'll have if we don't get past that support.
It's the double bottom that's really made this a scarier trade to me. Otherwise I'd have no qualms about aiming for that blue Ellipse area.
The pin MAY signify a continuation down, but after all this, there are higher probability trades out there. UNLESS we get a deep retrace into that pin on Monday which we can use to improve the RISK/REWARD ratio. Even then, it's not the best.
It's a pity as I'd love to play for the ellipse.
But hey. As traders we are all about waiting for the best oppurtunities.
...waiting ...waiting ...waiting.
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I said I'd give a more details on this trade later on, so here it is with promised pic.
This trade was playing the recovery from the worst stock market fall in a long time here in Oz. It hurts a little knowing it reached the %61.8 retracement of the last down wave in the fall. : ...The exact top of this weeks action. This was actually the target I had in mind!! LOL There is a major reaction here most of the time. Even if there is a continuation later on.
Pity I had to leave yesterday.
As you can see, even on the 15 minute chart, at NO point was there any reason to get out of this trade until the %61.8 was met!
When I closed off yesterday I took a quick visual look and thought we were at the double bottom trade target anyway. Which we weren't! Optical illusion!!
If you are near the trading screen ,you normally would watch how the price bars develop. Getting out only when they tell you to. Preferably on the higher time frames. Keeping track of major target zones.
In the end, the run from entry was a very respectable 440 points. From a trade that risked 17 points. Would have been nice.
I got 200. Still. At better than 10 to 1 Profit/Risk no-ones complaining!
The daily chart on this now shows a pinbar down. It's a funny chart though, as the daily only appears to take into account out of australian trading time data. It does, though, look like at a least a retracement is on the cards. .....We'll see.
Ya'll have a good weekend.
To all fellow Aussies.... HAPPY AUSTRALIA DAY!! Enjoy your barbies and booze, days out , or whatever you are doing today.
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Eur/CHF is presenting what could be an amazing buy and hold opportunity.
Looking good for an entry here. 4-hr pin . Depends what London brings us leading up to the open. So easy for things to change around now.
It's bouncing off a trendline by the looks of it. Daily S1 line there too. Would rather a deeper retrace than we have. If I do get in I'm starting off small. :
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I have to disagree here SL, it often is very important how one exits a trade. You can get bumped out of one over the other based on how you exit, and then if you only took usd/jpy instead could end up greatly hurting your bottom line. I dealt with this problem for awhile when I was a pinbar trading machine on the 4hr and often you would have multiple pinbars across multiple pairs at the same time(often where two pairs were essentially trade xxx/xxx pair).
Mike
I think I hear you mike. If you mean by letting the more successful trade win out through exiting at the right time (on both as circumstances arise), I've done that many times. Has mostly worked well. This would be the default action I take in that situation.
For all we know some other yen cross can pull us out of one of the trades.
Price action can be muddled from ALL the other pairs asserting their influence. You'd go nuts trying to read into everything every trade!
BUT contrary to that view I have, GBP/JPY is the one pair I nearly always check on with Cable and the other Yen crosses. It's a prick to use trendlines on!
As much as I can, I try and play what I see on the pair I'm trading. Even though I admit, the best ,smoothest going trades happen when all the planets align themselves (i.e. price action on most majors agree with your trading pair)
...Or have I just gone off in a totally different tangent to both of you? LOL
.
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So again I am the type of trader that treats each and every pair completely individually from another. No matter the case. Just what works for my style
I think you'd find a lot of do the same. Surely.
The way I find it. When I DO have a trade like this, there is often one pair that starts looking less promising as a going concern (for whatever fundamental reason). Take whatever profit on that one, protect your capital and let the better prospects do their thing.
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Dunno if you believe in 'em, but both GJ and EJ also had their 50% fib coincide with those areas
Oh I believe in them. Not a fib though, of course. LOL
But I believe in them for sure.
Even with all fibs, I like to see other reasons near by as well. i.e. Fibs and trend lines working together to show us a little timing as well.
The main reason here is that I 'd much rather see a DEEPER retracement before thinking a pair is changing directions.
I use the %50 line all the time in stocks.
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Heh... have you seen IB's charts? Makes Oanda's look like a professional charting package.
Yeah. Annoys me. Puts trend lines,fibs ,pivots and everything out of wack.
As much as I like MT4, I an see myself switching to esignal or similar for this reason.
Happy trading all. I'm calling it a night.
EDIT:Just realised you were talking about Interactive Brokers! LOL
.
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many thanks to MBQB11 and Seeking Light...........
so i guess you win some and you lose some, anyway there's no 'standard' charts around, right ? even different MT4 brokers have different closing times............
i'm trying with Alpari for their 4hr charts since almost everyone seems to say Oanda's 3hr charts are totally useless.......
many thanks again.
Findcount,
In agreement with Mike and the Trendster...
Just trade it! (Hey, we need a Nike logo made out of a Bar chart! )
I've never had any issue with trading price bars through different brokers.
I use Accucharts (FXSol, Gain Capitals Charts, InterbankFX and backtested with Alparis MT4. I now even have an IgMarkets charting feed. I trade what I see and don't have a problem at all when trading pins, double tops/bottoms, outside bars and whatever. Just trade what you see.
If you keep practicing, over time you'll learn to see multi-bar versions (equivilents) really well anyway.
The main issue I have with the different charting choices are the different extremes sometimes (high for the day, etc), but it rarely effects how tradable 'what you see' is. Along with different daily close,it plays havok with daily pivots sometimes , but you can do them manually in about a minute anyway!
,B
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LOL just tried that. There is no way I can do it. Just impossible.
...and Seeks..
LOL . A actually GOT THIS WRONG!!
The test is...
While sitting at your desk, Lift your right foot off the floor
and make clockwise circles.
Whilst doing this Draw the number 6 in the air with your right hand.
Your foot will change direction and theres
nothing you can do about it. :
Actually, I'm going to post this in the relevent section too. LOL
...WITH a poll. LOL
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It's funny now. I've had a few goes at the 6 thing and today, after a bit of playing, I can do it.
Not one of us could do it when I first heard of it. There was a good dozen of us there too. lol (No, not drinking! : )
On topic :
We now officially have our Monthly Pin on Cable. Looking good...
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Already had my gambles on Gold instead and riding the EURUSD / USDCHF train..far more feeble trends to try and bend as opposed to the freshly hiked AUDUSD :P
(But need just as much caution...this is all very low risk - as in money risked - stuff once again, no surprise..)
I have to play only A+++ trades on gold while that particular account is starting out. Expensive to trade. Been on the EURUSD trade since yesterday. Took ages to get running though, didn't it?! All safe, now, on that one.
Quote:
But classic, isn't it. The market knew over a week ago and started buying for it; then it's released and it's out. Buy the rumour, sell the news indeed.
Was hoping for that. LOL
It's nice to have that sort of experience pay off now. Isn't it?
That DBHLC looked promising when I zoomed down a few time frames. Classic stall at that %76.4. Twice.
Going to play this carefully though. Not convinced yet.
Quote:
Now, let's let today turn into a really ugly carry trade dying death fest with a bad ISM to catalyze it all, shall we?
I would like that very much!
Yeah baby! Got too many trades open now. In short on EurJpy though, so won't be totally left out. ....and I see it had a DBHLC too on 4h. Nice.
Quote:
P.S. Bundy are you still in the J16 group? There's usually tons more action in my journal and all the other people's, just been a bit quiet lately due to trying to recover a bit of my hands which have been overused..
I miss the polar bear
I get too busy to justify the membership most of the year. Don't get me wrong. I LOVE it. If I don't have time to make use of it, though, I'd rather invest more into one of my trading accounts. LOL ...Anyway, I've got my box of tricks from there that are working great.
...BUT, funny you should ask, as I'm keen to clock in again and have been debating it just these past couple of days! (Would love to watch the videos) I'm just about to head into another busy calendar again though. Dunno. We'll see. Bought Forex Tester yesterday. "HEAPS good" investment too. (Sorry. Friends daughter keeps saying "Heaps good". LOL)
And my Avatar is still a Polar Bear!! I feel like a smart a*** at the moment. The new one looks more to that effect. LOL
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As much as I love the 15 min I go through stages where I don't bother. Most of the time I'lll just happen upon a favourite setup while screwing down to lower charts. Just a few more tools mate.
Happy trading for the rest of the day fella! I've moved stops, locked in some profits and calling it a night. :wave:
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recently i tried one trade where there were at least 3 bars with near identical lows and then went short when the fourth bar broke to the downside by a lot and closed. i was up 25 pips and was sure it would move more but in the end got busted !
last few weeks has been very bad for me as i would be doing the same thing and would be up at least 15-20 pips and then the thing would reverse ! now, i'm determined to close out before the Dow Jones opens as it seems many pairs are more 'responsive' to the Dow than usual (at least to me).
Welcome to currency trading!
When playing breakout trades be careful. There is a LOT of stop running in this market. A large reason why most here recommend larger time frames.
Remember break outs are old news. Insiders have strategies that take advantage of this age old TA technique.
Your mission (should you choose to accept it), is to develop skills that take into account this dark side of the force.
Break out strategy: After a break, wait for a return to that support/resistance zone. Play any confirming price action in the direction of the break. You'll miss oppurtunities doing this, but it's all about protecting your capital first. Besides you'll often get a second chance to get in on a pullback, or even a second return to the line on a larger time frame.
You'll have a really good feature to base your stop loss against (and give a few pips extra room too. Don't be greedy
...AND Breaks of Double/Triple bottoms and tops ARE more successful in the right circumstances. i.e. With the trend and not too close to possible resistance/support areas where you're up against large groups of traders expecting reversals. Studying the larger time frames before placing a trade can give you insight here.
Don't give up!
It takes a lot of demoing and trading to get a handle on the booby traps here. Mines every where.
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Not as clear cut a chart for targets that you CAN get.
I'm favouring the Blue Box, but will be keeping an eye on Mr Trends neckline. (lol) ...well price action around his neckline anyway.
The blue box takes into account a lot of my favourite targets, including probably the closest thing to a confluence at the large %38.2 fib.(the highest target.)
Then there are MAs. But until it happens...
My favourite price here is around 221.
So it looks like anywhere from 216.70 to 223. IF the pin carrys off.
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I'd say I'm still not touching the Yen short(long xxxJPY), but I probably sound like a broken record by now, having reiterated this for months :P
I am so hoping GJ stays below 207.30 now for good...and UJ finally gets it's breakdown...and EJ FINALLY loses that gigantic weekly TL...and...and..and :P
Well , I told you I was getting in. :
This is my second attempt. ...I'm happy with the risk! LOL
(Baby sat first entry Friday to a little bit worse than breakeven. )
Really interested to see what wins out here.
My thoughts are with governments being keen to stall any major breakdown in the global markets.
....But I don't particularly care too much.
A good daily pin is a good daily pin! A pin off the lower fibs to go with that gives me a lower risk ratio. Who cares if it fails!
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..Just wanted to say I remain cautious one way or another, stops are tighter than usual and a lot of vigilance is needed..
Too right.
Have been cautious since we hit these Weekly EMAs.
I agree with Cable pulling the strings. Was doing the same Friday.
Missed AUD too. ...But more stupidly, at one point last week I was watching the trend line it's just bounced off! LOL
There's certainly conflicting moves over the board IMO. USD based action verses carry trade confusion.
Just took half profits on the Long. Holding previous Stop Loss. This gives me a breakeven trade at worse. ...I'll add to it later if she show's she deserves it.
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Yup..........!!! I know the idea of letting profits run is correct... but still... I seem to like setting a target... getting there... and buggin out... at least for me for right now.. it works better that way...
I use targets MOST of the time. Occasionally I see a trade I want to let run.
If you ask me there's no right or wrong way on this. You trade the setup the way you know works best for that particular case.
Mike's pretty good at lettin' em run.
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Thanks for the response. Yes it looks like you are correct in regards to going long and not short on the eur/gbp. After slightly breaking through the strong support, a PB has formed on the 1 hr. It will be interesting to see how this will play out.
Hi araouf,
Like Mike mentioned, he'd wait for a breakout/pullback either of the top trendline or of a stronger support area (his orange line).
As for the pin your pointing out. It's a great example of a pin happening for the wrong reason.
If I was a betting man, I'd say that pin's about to be busted. LOL
It's up to you, but there's better / clearer trades, really.
This pair will give us a trade eventually, but to my mind, not yet.
Check out the chart to see what I mean about the pins placement....
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Learn as much as you can here first, (or until you can't contain yourself anymore. ) before joining the PF.
The James16 Group is awesome. Was when I was last a member over 18 months ago and I KNOW it's improved dramatically lately with online video examples and other improvements.
It's less than half the price of the ForexBastards membership you quoted!!
Remember, the whole idea was suggested to Jim by Merlin after all the awesome help he had given the then members of the forum with there trading (this thread is the best example!). Add to that, FijiTrader (awesome psych stuff!), Dialist, along with many other helpful members there now and you are getting just about unbeatable value.
(By the way, the J16 Group is FREE after 12 months membership! )
Like I said, learn as much as you can throughout this thread and by studying your charts etc. If only to make the most of the material and help when you first get there. ... But , I'm sure you'll want to stay.
For the record. I'll DEFINITELY re-join one day when I've got time to make the most of it! LOL
Someone who's still there can give you better details later hopefully.
I hope this helps!
,Bundy
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is it a good PB...? I am planing to enter in 50% ret
Thanks
Shay
Don't stress Shay, we are waiting for a retracement anyway on this pair. I played an Outside bar or Inside bar (can't remember!) and I'm out, waiting for a good re-entry. Wasn't expecting to have a trade at the point. It just showed up in front of me.
You missed the pin retrace here. So did I. (And I don't care. Neither should you. )
The last thing you want to do is get upset at missing an oppurtunity. They happen all the time. We just need to wait.
Getting toey is the road to ruin.
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yeah, I tend to do that when I have too much time on my hand.. (got a stop that)
you're kind of late with that oil tip, bro.., someone has already sold me one below...
.
Ouch! How much did he charge?? You realise that's an old one??
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only $129/month and then free after 12 months.
he, he.. it's only the old one if it's closed..:
Alright! I already miss it enough without you rubbin' it in! LOL
You still on that trade? That's awesome.
I was waiting for a trade around that time, but couldn't fit it into my MM (oil).
Considering switching my currency trades to that account. Need more equity!
Then I can trade wheat etc too.
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Raczek will probably clarify his position, but the marked area was a Outside Bar (bullish) coming off a resistance/turned support zone. Pretty good setup.
On my charts it was a pin. (brokers on different time frames)
Also a good example of how price may only roughly respect lines at times. If you stick to using price action to confirm trades, that roughness don't matter.
Hope this helps.
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Hi All,
I have started reading thread for about a month ago. Still I have hundreds of pages to read.
I have just found this on G/U. Is it a valid pin bar? I know the longer timeframe the better. hope attach picture succesfully
Yeah, great looking pin Mihali.
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Thanks for your fast reply bundy. Should I have to say that I am already in?
Anyway I really like your avatar.
lol. It was good timing, just checked back.
While your at it, check the price action on the 15 min. Not to get you hooked on lower time frames!, but note how the price retreated faster then it was climbing earlier. That's a good sign of a good pin. If we drop below 1.9842 it's looking even better though. Sometimes a pin is a pullback. We're not home free yet!
Edit: And thanks on the avatar mate. I change them every now and then. lol
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Hi, i can see this PA but i am trying to understad how did you trade it...?
did you made buy with the breakout of the outside bar or from his bottom ?
where did you place your stop?
as i know you should trade it with breakout of the outside bar....your purple line is in the bottom did you bought thier? if yes please explain....(may be i am wrong)
Thanks
Shay
If I know Rac with his pivot zones...
...he'd have been playing the trading range / consolidation that developed at the time. ....Smaller time frame?
And RZ,
demo? ....lol. I'm feeling ya!
I get rare chances to trade oil. I can't afford to run 2 parts, which keeps me away. SOoooooo many oppurtunities. Even one mini contract is out of reach a lot of the time. Because of guaranteed stops on that account I can't put my stop any closer than 40 pnts on oil either.
One day!
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Breakout!! Do do do di do da do do do di do da doooooo....
PullBack!! Do do do di do da do do do di do da doooooo....
Woooooooooaaaaaaahhhhh.....
....Price React!!! Do do do di do da do do do di do da doooooo....
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I'm sorry we are confusing this for you. Our fault!
There are more advanced ways to trade.
Once you get a Bullish Outside Bar You can:-
1: EASIEST METHOD ....
--Enter as soon as that bar closes.
2: MOST SUCCESSFUL ....
--Wait until price breaks the high.
OR
3: HARD RISKY
--You can zoom down to a 4 hr chart, a 1 hour chart or even lower and wait for price action to RESPECT your expected technical level/retracement zone. Smallest/closest stop loss, BUT least likely to play out your way
4: HARDEST and MOST RISK
--Have a good idea that a certain level is the furtherest it will go and enter when it looks like slowing and reversing.
Maybe Rac used the 3rd or 4th method. They are a lot harder to get right ,and riskier if you aren't good at seeing all the influencing factors. i.e Have a lot more experience
Same is true for Pin Bars. The most probable of a win is when you wait for a break of the high/low (depending on Bearish or Bullish pin). BUT when you get better at trading you get to know which situation will allow the more advanced entry style.
In ANY of the above methods , the better the setup (right place and time, support/resistance, fibs etc) the better the chances. You really DO need to be very picky about which setups you choose to trade if you want to rake in those gains.
The best way to start out is to trade daily/weekly pin bars and wait for a break of their high/low. They're a lot easier and AND you can make REALLY good money this way anyway.
Takes a lot of experience/practice to use the more advanced methods and you don't need them yet!! It's fun when you get there. Get good at identifying good bars first!!!
, Bundy
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If your asking for everyones strategies , expert or not, here's how I'm doing this right now...
Since there is little in the way of obvious trailing points on higher time frames at the moment...
(I've zoomed down to 5 mins here to give a clearer picture of the patterns)
I've scaled back 2/5 of my position when we got a strong reaction to the 76.4 Retracement. I've set my stop loss for the remaining position to 207.46, which allows for a Gartley pattern to play out at least . (the way I interpret them anyway)
There is a sell stop below todays low that will reinstate my full exposure again.
I'd still be in full, but one of my staple setups is when there is a strong reaction to the 76.4 retrace. (or even 61.8)
I'm keen on this blowing downwards considerabley from here. So I'll strengthen my holdings on any Price action on the higher time frames .
I'm keeping in mind the possibility of a retracement. Hence this scale-back after this pattern.
Cheers,
B
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By the way. If I'm stopped out I'm very likely to re-establish later once things are favourable again.
We're in the strongest move we've had for a few weeks. Without taking ANYTHING for granted , I'm mindful of this being able to continue much further down.
Let's keep an open mind tough.
EDIT: I'd have been reversing here now and forgetting the Gartley stuff if it weren't for the strong price bars on the Daily. The strong resistance at the 76.4 would have me trigger happy for a reversal. Let's wait and see!
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Could someone please help me understand why i shouldnt have taken this trade ?
You did an awesome job Cheelu!
You HAVE to take all good trades. You take them in the knowledge that you have the edge.
Sometimes they they give you a loss. This was one of those times.
You pay a "risk" premium for the chance of a better return. That's trading!
Edit: The pin you traded proved that price was respecting the MA and Trendline/support. That's the key, you have created a higher probability of success than someone who just blindly entered at the trendline.
Nite all.
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I've entered a sell stop for the IB. A good a bit further south than I normally would. Edit: NO. Scratch that. I want a better sign. Cancelled pending order. It's not that strong a case yet. Maybe on confirming bar.
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Like you know, I'm new to this thread. Pls do me a favor and have a look at the chart. I wondering if I see these setups correct.
Just for info: I added a 21EMA and 89SMA purely to be able to define the trend. I actually borrowed that concept from the very popular 4H MACD strategy on FF.
I'm awaiting your feedback.
Regards
Werner
Hey dude,
I'm looking at it with weary eyes, but it looks to me like you're doing great.
Recognising tradable oppurtunities after the fact, and trading them in real time is different, but it's only practice. You've picked up the gist of it pretty quick though.
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This is the first trade I've entered since Mon/Tue. If it reaches the blue line I'm taking some profits and setting B.E. on the remainder. ...from there we'll see.
Seems quiet here. :
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I have a question on trailing stop. Could someone please guide. Thanks.
Let's say I buy Eur at 1.5500 with a 50 stop loss at 1.5450 I also set up trailing stop loss at 70 pips. Now,
1. Does the trailing stop loss take effect
a) as soon as it moves 1 pip in my favor, say to 1.5501 OR
b) Trailing stop does not kick in until it moves 70 pips
Both.
'Trailing stop' is a general term with many techniques. It just means to move your stop along with the trade. Wether you move it pip for pip, or trail below swing lows /support etc. If it's a broker feature it could be any of these. Depends on the broker. It may even move every 10 pips in a stepped fashion etc.
Which trailing stop method is better is up to your system/ money management or experience. I try not to trail too early on in the trade.
Forex is tricky. Volatile on occasions and can take you out before finally heading the way you want it. Takes a while to get an idea on stops.
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3. If the hard stop is above the trailing stop, hard stop will be still be executed when hit. right?
Your hard stop over rides . Yes. Well it should anyway.
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yet I have this sort of suspicion that if those carry trades go bonkers it'll be a fierce competition between who can drop faster, EUR or AUD
Yeah, I know, but I'm trying to ignore correlations on trades like this. Just look at USD/CAD. lol Don't know. Mindful of it though.
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Both AJ and EJ have been ridiculously(spelling?) resilient, whereas CJ and GJ have already fallen to pretty devastating levels.
EJ is QUITE skewed. I wonder whether the EJ unwind will coincide with a larger EURGBP correction as well.
I haven't entered on these for a while. Missed all the good entries.
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As for quiet - thrashy mess...
I'm Sooo glad you said that. I thought it was just me being out of sync! LOL
Just took profit @ 1.6490 (1.6498 buy) ...two thirds closed. Just happened to walk in from Xmas breakup at the right time to catch it! . lol
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I wonder what the ETA is...a March close below that 8 year TL should be interesting, no?
what... who ...wahhh.... Who woke me up?
lol...
If we make it to that FE100, I think its got a high probability of going even further Seeks. The old resistance around the 141-2 area is possible if we break that swing low.
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let`s say we have a `bullish` daily pin bar. how many days can it go sideways before breaking the high point?
ie G/U a few days ago made a nice daily pin at confluence area (61.8 fib) and then market was slow. If it breaks the daily pin today(after ~3 days) is it still a valid pin?
Hi Mihali,
It's still a valid pin. It still represents the same information, that long players overcame short players at that point strongly.
A pin often represents resistance and support at it's highs and lows. SO a break is still a break and has signifance.
For the current chart , if you look at your daily chart again, yesterdays bar was a Bullish Outside Bar. That's good to see.
And it's always good to see a failure to match the previous low created by the pin, like we've seen.
If it had taken one more day to break I'd be wondering about wether we are only consolidating. Probabilities start withering the wrong way and you are better off waiting for the next occurance/oppurtunity.
, Bundy
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Thanks for your answer. Do you mean the price aciton is not appropriate for the Friday-Monday bars?
I found that you used the Interbank fx MT4 platform but I used the Metaquotes MT4 platform to view the chart.
You can find the first false bearish outside bar is on 10-3-2008(which is Monday). Must I use the Interbank fx MT4 platform to watch the price chart?
The first small bar is 7-3-2008(Friday).
Cheers
Aihua
Hi Aihua,
You trade whatever you see on your screen. It's the same information, shown a little differently. If you see the right PA and it's strong, it's still representative of the bull/bear fight that took place during that time/bar.
And to add to what Jarroo has shown, (if he don't mind)... :
The number one thing to look at before you trade ANY price action is the current support / resistance outlook for your chart. ...That's including confluence of support/resistance given to you by fib retracements, MAs , Trendlines or whatever. These not only provide confirmation for a trade, but can often give you a reason NOT to trade if a strong confluence is on the wrong side of entry.
Would you sell a Bearish Outisde Bar if it stopped and closed at the exact same bottom point as the chart did twice in the past week ? No... You wouldn't! (or shouldn't. )
James has been trading so long that he knows which situations have the best chance of giving him a winning trade.
When he says "2. Bearish Outside Bar from extreme high" , he knows from experience that he has good distance from the moving averages and the price formations that have shown support etc around the signal.
...breathing room.
I've posted another version of the chart with ideas on what would stop me taking those other trades. (my opinion. ...
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Hi Bundyraider
Thanks for you long and wonderful explanation.
I agree with you.
I think we should not take the first bullish outside bars as james taked.
I have ask the same question as to phn.
Do you agree with me about the first bullish outside bars judgement?
Cheers
Aihua
No . ....What phn said. A break of that first Outside Bar also breaks consolidation/range. ...So it's a good trade.
James even said: "Bullish outside bar signallingLIKELY breakout of consolidation."
Sometimes the overall price patterns leading up to the signal give you a strong case for a particular trade too.
On one hand trading price action can make things very easy, on the other hand, it's a little tricky getting to grips with all the nuances!
This is why it it's advised to learn one thing at a time and get good at it before moving on to the next one. There is a LOT to learn. I can see you're getting the idea though , for sure.
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Im a little confused as to the fact we have had 2 daily pins in such a short space of time and both still active? I mean it’s a bit unusual looking at the past bars in this pair.
Could any one say one was better than the other or should we wait until one is broken?
Hi Bones,
It's best to empty your mind of which direction you think things are going.
We got a great bull pin (off of a PPZ). We went long. We got great bear pin and reversed our position. ...Now we hold until we get great opposing PA. ...maybe off the PPZ? Maybe waaaaaay further down? Or maybe reverse today? We don't need to know.
Every trade is different. Every trend has a unique length.
Trade what is offered. With no expectations.
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Yes quite true. It is what you are comfortable with. However to trade the way you do requires alot more skill and experience. If i screw up with trend trading there is a reasonable chance that i may be saved by the trend or a AH. However if i screw up with just PA and PPZ well.... it ain't pretty. I will leave price pivot trading where it belongs... to the professionals.
I think you're doing the smart thing for now Saskui. The trend is always your friend, as you say.
Drawing in Pivot Zones has supercharged my trading even further.
Why not draw them in anyway and learn to trade them on demo?
It's worth the effort, as they can help you understand the beginning and end of trends as they slowly unwind and change directions. In my opinion. :
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Still not pracitce the pivot levels and the fib levels, may I say the pivot and fib is more reliable than the support and resistance using peaks and valleys in most of occassions? this seems silly question,but, this is something puzzling me a lot. thanks again for your help
Hi Krue,
Not really. Each one is just as valid as the other. Pivots, Pivot Zones, Fibonacci levels, whatever! The real key is when a level has proven to be significant twice or more.
I've drawn some charts... ...You owe me a beer!!
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Thanks for the beautiful drawing. tell you a story for exchange of a beer. a boy saw a dog first time, he was so brave with out any fear, someday, this dog was pissed off by something, and bited the little boy, since then,whenever the boy met a dog, he feel scared,and think every dog were dangerous. silly analogy though, but, similar psycho implication to new trader.however, the question seems probably not about the reliability of support and resistance, it is about when. there are several occasions here and there you will find the seemingly support area gets weak, that occurs in a down trend, particularly at the beginning of a lengthy down trend, this scares me, and the serious problem is I don't know if the upcoming down trend is a big one or not.
"You don't have to know to be profitable". - ....Same book
None of us know. We take what is given.
There's nothing anyone can tell you that'll help you completely here.
Reading this thread from the start a few times until the ideas stick is a good start. Practising it all on demo until you gain confidence is another good idea.
You need confidence in your method.
If you aren't even sure of your methods ability to win over time you are trading with your hands tied and eyes blind folded.
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Beer is my big favorite too, hopefully, we could have chance get together enjoy a couple of jugs. and I am sure the jugs will stand on the strong support line to get served.
I always appreciate a couple of good jugs.
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But before people start accusing me of Helsinki-Equinox trading again, I'm just gonna shut up and keep my super-special-power-secrets to myself and my journal / chat sessions, where I'm free to spread my lunacy without fear of repercussions hehehe :
You've been quiet bud!
...Yeah speaking of that Helsinki-Equinox stuff. ...Mr Trend must be building that website still. ...He hasn't dropped in for a while.
(Warning: Don't search for the Helsinki-Equinox system everybody. It's an in-joke! )
.
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which one is the correct point to draw fib retracement ?...a or b ?
thnx
Both mate.
That's where you can get a confluence between two Fibonacci levels as well.
The strongest one though, in my opinion, is from 'a'.
Don't get caught up in crowding your screen up though. Generally the larger the move /wave or whatever you like to call it, that the Fib is defined with, the stronger the levels are ...or to put it better, the more likely the levels are to be reacted to.
On fib confluences... If you have a fib drawn on the weekly charts and one of its levels line up (in confluence) with another one on the 4 hr chart you've got a strong likelyhood of that level being reactive. Try it!
.
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When posed with pin as attached(todays silver week chart) which IMO has been rejected from a pretty solid area of confluence, I find that in an effort to rule base my trades I am a little stuck here.
First of all.... If in doubt, throw it out.
Look at it this way.... Price has approached that area, retraced, approached, and just begun another retracement. Sounds more like a sideways market.
If we break above 18.632 i'd be happier trying long. For now I would be on the sidelines. ...it may be a retracement. Clearer trades out there . ...and that pretty much sums up what you're asking about being stuck with the decision. Wait for the better trades.
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So my first question is as technically the open and close of the pin in relation to the "eye" makes it a pin but has anyone considered quantifiying that it is or isn't a trade by the fact that the open and close of the pin is below either the 50% ret or perhaps .236 of the "eye" bar?
About 1/3rd.
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Secondly, again in an effort to rule base pins, has anyone toyed with the idea of a retacement value that the pin must be past the left "eye" to quantify it as a pin. Possibly min 50%.
While writing indicators for highlighting Pin bars as a visual aid, quite a while ago, I found a good filter was to have at least 3/5ths of the pin protruding completely past the bars leading up to it. I'd be even pickier now.
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Just Closed it 1,9780.
But nobody has here any trade man. plan? Or don t want to talk about it?
THX, Laszlo
Hi Laszlo.
A lot of the time I skip trading Mondays, you might find a few of the other regulars here do the same and aren't even hanging around the forex factory at those times.
Another factor is the market. If there isn't much happening on the 'setup ' front I tend to get on with my regular work and not head over here to read or post. Maybe others do the same there too.
Plan?? My opinion? ...Depends . If the market is in a messy all over the place position like it is now, I'll take profits real quick. ...Like at trend lines and pivots zones/daily pivots etc.
...Other times we try to let the move take it's course, taking profit at pivot zones or other major 'bus stops' . For example... Enter on pin/confluence then Exit on inside bar breaking against our trade at a confluence area. ...OR.... another pin a few days later. Whatever.
REALLY depends on the current market situation, ...and dare I say it?... (lol) ...also depends on confidence after recent trades.
Good trade anyway Laszlo. Taking any profit when the market offers it to you is always a good move.
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you can use candlesticks or OHLC bars as James does. The information is EXACTLY the same. It is just a matter of preference. Although a lot tend to switch to bars because it makes it easier to learn alongside the material presented by James. But there are a great deal of traders that use j16 material using candlesticks. I often switch to candles out of boredom
Mike
Privately, I mix the two up from week to week, just as I do my colour schemes. For some reason I think/see better with one style one week and another the next week. Often I'll switch back and forth between bars and candles, depending on mood. I definitely notice some set ups better with bars and then other set ups with candles. Anyone starting out from scratch would be better sticking to bars eh?
In the interest of consistency, I decided a while back to only post bar charts in Jims thread. Even using a similar colour scheme. It's a lot easier learning from examples when they are consistent in style, in my humble opinion.
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On another note, what are everyone's thoughts on the eur/usd? I'm thinking we need more downside to get another push upwards, otherwise we'll just sit here for quite a while. Today closed with a bearish pin bar and we could definitely consider this an area of resistance.
I agree. Looks like it wants to go down at this point in time, but there is strong evidence of bulls waiting just below. I'm sitting it out until the triangle breaks and proves itself either way.
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I have been reading through almost every single posting of this thread these days, still on the page of 188,long way to catch up. the more read, the more I realise the power of being humble, the more humble, the more one's mind opens up to wisdom. therefore, I ever decided to sit quietly and learn from everyone of you. but, I really had some trouble with below charts, and this made me could not sit silently anymore.so, here is my post, not for sure if I may have the honor to share with your insight. my question is if the lastest Pin Bar of EC H4 worth the distance of being short to the dotted red trendline given the blue area of fib confluence as potential resistance.
the second question is regarding the method of drawing fib. my approach is to draw from bottom up if it's a uptrend and wanted to locate a retracement from the top; I may draw the fib from top down if it's a downtrend and wanted to find a pullback from the bear bottom. is this a correct way to draw the fib?
I thank you in advance for help
Hi Krue.
You are drawing the fibs correct. Yes.
I'm not sure I understand your first question though.
If you are asking if it is worth taking a short trade in that situation, I would say no. The amount you are risking is too much compared to the expected reward.
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Jim, it gets said all the time, but you are the man!!
Your willingness to give and knack for teaching, have started a chain of generosity amongst those you have touched.
....Does that make you proud or what?
Personally , you gave me that last little part of the jigsaw puzzle that I needed. ...Gluing together confluence and Price action. ....And then with Pivot zones.... man ... you've got me stealing from the market!!! Trading almost feels like it's too easy these days ....And I like that!! ...I like that a LOT !!!
Thank you. ...from the bottom of my heart dude. :0)
...And a message from the gods... You've overloaded your good Karma. ;o)
.
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I understand it does not give you a guarantee. But the theory behind it gives you 3:1 SL/BE ratio. Question is what's the percentage of cases that second eye retraces to 62 level of pin and then makes a braketrough, compared to the cases when it again does retrace, but the pin isn't activated (broken) later on. I hope I made this clear, if not I'll be glad to clarify it more.
I'm just bringing this up, because I think it's an interesting concept to think about. Of course choosing an entry is up to each individual trader.
That's why I was asking if someone has got a journal trading pins. If not, I'll do the backtest on my own, that's no problem, but it'll take me some more time.
So if anyone is interested in this please feel free to comment.
Hi Bee,
I've done a forward test journal using Forex Tester not long ago (trading simulation) and this was something I was hoping to get statistics on just as you ask for. All I found is that any pin that gets retraced a little and then breaks had pretty much the same probabilities of hitting the next PPZ and so on wether it retraced 23% 38% 61% or whatever. They key was the break. Pins that broke favourably after a retrace were the 'edge' so to speak. Larger retraces just allow a tighter stop, with the trade off being you are getting in before it's confirmed with a break, and with higher risk.
Now, if goes further than the 76.4 retracement it's a higher prob of not turning around at all(intra bar). ..That's about all I got. lol
The conclusion I made from this was that (now this is an example) , on a reversal, the retrace to 61.8 or 76.4 could either happen in relation to the pin OR in relation to the wave that the pin starts. Meaning that focusing on just one bar is too narrow a view. You have to be wary of what's happening around it. ( ....heard that before somewhere? )
Hope that helps.
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I really really wish I could remember. I suspect it was a fib cluster and I erased it again because I thought it was silly to expect price to react just because of two projected fibs.
Boy, was I wrong
Nostraseekus strikes again.
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Just bounced off of Daily Pivot/38.2% ret area.
Butted up against yesterdays high and another ppz at the moment and floating around the 365 on the 15 minute . Should be right once over them.
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your demonstration of drawing will give me valuable insight to build up something. I thank you for your help, or, other people please,if possible, give me something to think over?
Hi Krue,
For you to understand better...
I suggest you start with the most obvious PPZs
The most obvious are nearly always the best anyway.
Like this one....
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Since I had a chart already PPZeded here it is with some extras...
The key is only playing the best set ups, eh? ...As usual.
That bottom PPZ is usable , but I'd rather a cleaner more obvious zone, personally. There are too many set ups happening around the pairs each month to bother playing the below par ones.
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yeah, me too. A 2h Pinbar and almost 150EMA, 61.8 fibo.
Can I have a 'me too' too guys??
Had this line drawn in to help define my stop. (accidentally erased it a few minutes ago and redrew it.)
So far so good.
This is funny this trade, I put this on the other day.
Up until this shot up I actually thought this was going to be stopped out for a loss yesterday. LOL
Stopped locked in profit now. ;-)
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i have been looking at this thread for a few weeks now and this is 1st time posting, has anybody thought of creating or already created an ea that based on criteria for pin bars only from the vm price action 1.1 indicator with an entry at close of pin bar in opposite direction of the nose with a take profit and stop loss as well as money management by % of acct balance?? I'm not a programmer but this should be looked into
Many have thought of it.
The truth is, you are better off learning to read the price bars without any aids. Just because you see a technically valid pin bar doesn't mean you automatically take it. What's more important is WHERE the pin bar is. That is, how it looks and is positioned relative to the price action surrounding it. An EA with this capability is NOT a simple thing to create.
This goes for all the important price bars taught here. They are all easily definable in code, but coding the most important part of the equation is the major hurdle, ...the discretionary side of it.
Trust me. Taking the time to make all this second nature to you whenever you look at a chart is well worth it.
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Why would you call it a free trade? You risked at least two positions for the trade to reach a certain amount of pips to close half and break even the other half. True, you would eliminate a potential loss after breaking even, but let's not forget at the same time you lose a potential gain by not closing it. You're actually risking 50 pips or whatever of potential profit. That's why I wouldn't call this a "free" trade.
Of course, I've never been a fan of breaking even. Based on my personal experience, by blindly breaking even some positions (not implying that you're doing it) instead of placing the stop losses under/above support/resistance, your stop loss is bound to be hit most of the time unless you're lucky. Of course, I might be wrong and I know that trading is all based on what you feel comfortable in. Just wanted to express my view on the subject.
Kevin
You're certainly not alone in that view Kev.
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I think I'm getting this now. (It's not you Seeking, I tend to make things more complicated then they really are.)
So, you would maybe wait for a retrace into that DBHLC so the stop loss (which would be on top of the DBHLC) would be give a better r/r?
Or some other confluence (resistance in this case) within the DBHLC to place your stop to give you a better r/r?
Thanks,
Jim
Hi Jim,
I noticed your DBHLC post the other day. Was in traffic in my opinion, for one.
Like Seek mentioned, you'll do a lot more good taking those types of trades when they're placed better. ...Against trendlines or PPZ or swing highs or whatever. With the major trend even better.
It's an important point to remember that we don't take every price bar setup just because it meets the definition. You make a lot more money by waiting. You know that!
You COULD have used that daily DBHLC as a momentum indicator if you were good. Trading intraday price action in that direction. ....Using the appropriate nimble trade management that goes with it, of course. (hmmmm ....new smilies!! )
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I'm not saying that to be rude. We're all here to keep each other in check. ....just to point out that you may be looking for trades when they don't exist. The ones worth taking are always "eye poppers" ...so to speak. When you have to analyse to find a reason, it's a low grade set up.
In this instance if you zoom down to the 1 hour chart I see signs of a possible long signal later on if we break 1.5523. Opposite to your short idea. At the moment though I'd rather wait for a better trade. Much better.
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Thanks. The funny thing is, I actually know all of that already! I'm just need to learn to be more patient and consider only the A trades!
When you look at those types of pins, ask yourself whether they may be just a pull-back before a break. It takes practice, or repeat events to get a feel for the situations where that is more likely to happen than a bounce (and vice versa). The A trades will be more obvious. Also, taking confirmed pins etc only can improve you success rate.
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I saw that pin bar on the Eur/Gbp daily earlier. Would you consider that a close to prime opportunity?
Prime opportunity? No. Otherwise my post would be about the pin for sure.
The daily pin (if you can call it that) is in line with the inside bar formation. ( Remember that Pins are at their best when they actually DEFINE the swing high/low.)
For the moment we are still sideways. The pin like bar (and in the 61.8% zone. ...AND the inside bar previous), to me, suggests that the likely break will be down. Because we opened down low and closed down low.
For me, this is a pivot/PPZ based trade. Until I see a break either way and then price action confirming that direction off one of those PPZs, I'm not in.
Quote:
I understand your preferred trade as that is what I am watching. Wondering what you mean by opposite break in your secondary possibility. Thanks in advance for the patience with us newbies.
When you see price hanging around in one area it can go either way. The very fact that we are sideways means the market as a whole is still undecided. We may only be stuck here because of one large order getting hammered onto the market in parts, for instance. If we break upwards, it is just as valid as a break down (we NEVER know). And let's not forget that the trend for most of this month so far has been up.
NZDUSD... I seen that this morning too. ....There's nothing there yelling at me to trade it though. ( Besides, I'm already long the Aussie.) It's preferable to have something definite that is being reacted too. It gives you confirmation that others may be noticing the same thing. If there are many confluences, there are many ideas on why you would get a reaction. The more traders (and different strategies) agreeing with you the better.
Another point to make is by looking at the whole picture, there's nothing amazing about how far the price has retraced. ....yet. Take a look at the 20th/21st of January this year. Now THAT's what you'd love to see.
EDIT: Sorry , make that 21st/22nd jan.
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Heres another on Nzd/Usd. At the 38% retracement level from the August lows, also testing the 200 dsma area. I am curious how others interpret the strength of this pin. Is the body to large for the nose?
Joe, Just another look at this pair to prove why we need more convincing circumstances yet, in my opinion.
I admit though, it looks as if it may give it to us. For the minute it's a gamble still though. That's why you wait till bar close.
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There are many brokers and some of them work in different time zones.
Some at GMT, some at GMT+1 and GMT+2, even +3.
Each broker has different time in the end of the day, which cause the bars look different from each other broker.
So what is the best Time Zone to analyze price action?
The eternal argument, mate.
The great thing about this stuff is, It doesn't matter.
...The only difference is what you mentioned , with some peeps examples not matching in appearance. That's it though.
For the record a lot of us use InterbankFX or North Finance feeds in here.
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How long do you guys hold out and try to ride part of your position as long as you can? I've been trying to take profits in three steps: closest resistance, next nearest resistance, and then just manually trail my stop until I get stopped out.
I also move my stops to break-even when I feel that there is enough breathing room to do so (50+ pips usually).
Similar to you.
Letting stops take me out of the trade. Leaving LOTS and LOTS of breathing room. I'm more protective of my open positions than anything really. Trailing waay behind good PPZs etc.
One big difference though, is I'm not taking part profits at nearest res/supp anymore. Don't like the sums of doing that. ...Risking a certain amount and then halving my potential gains, which are supposed to make up for the losses in the first place. If I get further valid reasons I'm even adding to my positions now.
I'm getting more loss, Break Evens and puny profit trades, but the winners are much bigger and more than make up for it.
...The override is always PA. If it's strong enough.
Though, if something tells me I should be going the opposite direction 'right now' I won't close straight up. I'll set a stop order as a trigger for a reverse. That way, if it continues on in the original direction , I'll mostly be still in. No stress. ...it's nice to be pleasantly surprised when I check back sometimes.
(I do have other methods and setups on the side, btw, that require set targets. ....when I catch them in front of me. )
edit: I'm still a believer in "don't let a winner become a loser". I just don't classify anything a winner that I can set to BE until it has a nice buffer
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I think I might be able to move my stop loss (1.9355) from under the Pin Bar. Not sure yet.
Why not move it up a little?
If it was my trade, now that we have broken the high of the BEOB, I'd be moving it to 20 pips below the BEOB @ 1.9430 , even if it's still not at BE there.
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Longer nose for sure, but the biggest problem is the close. It's below the low of the previous bar. Not good. It should close within the previous bars range.
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Hi bundyraider, the close was 1 pip above the close of the previous bar. is a pin bar better the higher up/lower down the previous bars low/high it closes (along with it's placement, nose length etc.)
What I meanis - is it something else to consider?
It's a lot more about the market having a noticeable change in sentiment.
For example, if you get one real long bearish bar closing way low. ...Longer than the average bar range on the chart. ...Now imagine the next bar totally undone that whole bars good work and closed right next to the previous bars open.
...That's pretty powerful information sitting in front of you isn't it?
Look at a pin bar the same way. The best pin bars will open and close at very close price points after first extending strongly in the prevailing trends direction, and then reversing convincingly. If that bar closes within the previous bars range (the left eye so to speak) it shows that the trends strength has gotten very weak, not even able to improve on the previous periods gains and even losing some of them. You could imagine that the further it erodes the "left eye"s territory before closing, the better.
Hope I've explained it clearly. ...Maybe not. LOL
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The bar you are talking about in the second chart you posted later, (and the same bar I extended) , is closer to a pin. Not a strong pin at all, but closer.
It doesn't matter if we find out later that that bar signalled a reversal. Over many many trades those low grade pins have a lower chance of giving you profit than the really great pins. ... the ones that are worth waiting for and come along often enough anyway.
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Before I go to bed I'm going to chuck this chart up.
I've been waiting for a break of the range as mentioned in this post.
Right now I'm waiting for another entry.
Because I've been watching and planning I noticed the IB at the trend line (actually drawn a few minutes after the first post)
I entered a buy-stop for the inside bar pointed to in the chart. Couldn't help myself.
....I'm out now. About 2 hours ago. Mainly because I'm stubbornly expecting a pull-back. Don't know , might be because I've done a lot today and need sleep.
Anyway, I'm going to post an another update if a good setup happens. All examples are good!
edit:Proving how tired I am, forgot chart!
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Last edited by bundyraider, May 21, 2008 10:08am
Reason: Forgot picture. lol
If it closed as a BUOB my preference would be long but Im not trading this pair either way for now.
cheers
FXP
Me either. Too many criss-crossing trendlines.
My gut says it'll break long and we are just crowding the weekly trendline first. (pink line)
And I like to use the daily as the strongest timeframe ...it has a BUOB eh.
Until it breaks into a clean area, I'm staying out. As tempting as it is to enter off that EMA bounce on the 1 hour!!
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By the way I just bought a little. Half position that'll I'll add to if good. I'm thinking USD bullish for the day.
Edit: Yeah real smart entering that one too. ....still slip up occasionally. Going to keep it there. It's small.
See.... trading with preconceived ideas of direction is "trying to be right".
Just not worth it.
Price action and Confluence rules ...and not just any confluence. (I said it myself in the posts. It could go any way.) You have to zoom out and look at the complete picture. ...And, wait if it has more hurdles to a clearer run.
There was mixed information everywhere and I took a trade (even if was small) just to have something on in the market. ...and to do that, I used my thoughts on where things "should" go. "Should" is a no-no word when trading. All that matters is the probability. The best probability trades are the A++ trades.
I know there are a lot of people out there thinking that Price action is the Holy Grail. It's not. It a tool that has to be coupled with patience and self protection. ...You wait for the trades that give you the best chance of success, and you enter them with a position size that takes into account that NOTHING IS EVER a sure thing, even the best setup ever!
Sorry for rambling, ....but I know someone will read that and start to 'click' . I have, and about 95% of the time now I stick to it. It's made a massive difference.
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BUOB right at 50 sma and SR area. Any opinions on the aggressiveness of taking this here on the retrace versus waiting for a break? My fundamental outlook would have me cautious to buy Usd. Yet Price Action on most pairs seems to indicate Usd is going bullish for the moment. We also have a BEOB on the Euro today.
Just a question JoeBryce. ....Do you ever zoom out?
Personal preferences I s'pose.
Anyway, the BUOB was good enough for me to mark it down for trade watch first this this morning (Oz time, just after daily close). It's shown good support the past few days. Also 38.2% ret.
...There's also a trend line that I had in there.
I never got in, due to other trades popping up as well. Don't like getting too thin. ...If I had of though, I'd have entered on that strong BUOB on the 1 hr chart.
In other words , I'd would have been using the Daily as the setup , then waiting all day for a trade in that preferred direction. ...Easy!
All you have to do then is trail your stops in the days ahead. ( And take part profits at some point also, if you prefer. ) If it keeps to that direction.
For the record, I've just done a similar thing on a couple of other pairs.
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I think you need to be wary on this, almost every other pair that I watch showed a small inside Monday bar and a big outside bar the following day. The small inside bar on Monday was a result of Memorial day in the US and a Bank Holiday in the UK. i.e. none of the big players were around.
And when everyone got back they created the outside bar.
When I back tested all my set ups I didn't take into account bank holidays etc. ...So I'll keep trading with what keeps proving itself. As the northern summer comes around I'll take that into account. But that's it. I'm not sabotaging my end result average by changing the rules midway.
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Sorry, I said I'd post this trade when it happened, but I've been too busy to construct charts.
Excuse the mess, haven't really got time now either. LOL
The current action happening right now looks like it may be about to turn up, so I've pulled the stop a bit closer now that the move looks to be taking a reprieve. Otherwise would normally give even more room.
I only have to check the charts daily. A lot of these trades don't even need the hourly entry, like I have here.
15 point original stop loss. 100 points up at one point. Current stop at locked-in 4:1 RR .
,Bundy
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I love this chart.... PPZ or S/R trading is very powerful addition to PA. I've been using this daily dow futures chart since the beginning of the year for all my yen needs..
Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
yep and once price broke clearly below 12700 it was an easy call that price was headed down hard. that was a no brainer sell and it has been very profitable. my dow account is very happy about it. now we watch and see if we can get a pullback to that level with some bar confirmation. i dont trade limit orders very often on daily charts but that area might be a decent place to try one.
jim
IB guys. Ready to play?
...and thanks for setting the alarm. heh heh heh
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This is my first post on FF. I have been reading this thread and it has completely changed the way I think about trading. I would like to thank everyone that has contributed especially James16, Dialist, Mike, & seekinglight. I am currently thinking of giving the PF a try, but have not decided it yet. At the close on Friday I noticed what looks like a pin bar to me but I am not sure if it is a good one. Thanks again!
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip_bagger
As for the pin bar, others may have different opinions, but I wouldn't take it. Setting aside the placement of the bar - I am not sure that it is very well-placed (at a supp/resis zone, or a good retracement level with confluence, or at a moving average) - the nose is just not long enough...
Cheers
PB
Agreement on the PF thoughts you posted pip_bagger.
CMoon
That is not a pin by a long shot.
The close and open should be very close ( or a LOT closer) to each other.
The Nose should protrude past previous bars, AND even better, in an above average fashion.
You have missed the basic definition of a pin and it's better to be blunt and help you out.
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I spent some time in the PF and would happily recommend anyone do the same if they want to develop their trading skill set.
The EURUSD bar you show from friday is at a good support zone but doesn't fit the pin bar criteria I look for. It could of course easily prove to be a good trade in retrospect but it could also just be profit taking before the weekend.
There will be much better opportunities around the corner imho.
cheers
FXP
LOL. Zaaapp!!!
edit: Just realised that may look on the offense. We both dug in at the same time fella.
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That action around cable. It's been said before by someone ( and I'm always highlighting these zones), ....when you see price hang around an area like that, it's more likley to break out than bounce.
...BUT, of course, we never assume anything. Wait for price action people.
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I'm not a pro or anything, but I would think that with the ranges of the weekly bars recently, that close of a stop is begging to be hit before you reach the FE 100 mark.
Would love to hear other opinions though.
I wasn't even looking at my trade levels when I posted the weekly chart. lol
Kind of agree with you, but looking at lower charts, it's protected by a PPZ. And no need to limit ourselves to fear of what MAY happen. There's just as much chance we get 2 or three or more long bearish bars too, isn't there?
I'm trading this on a lower time frame and at the moment, I'm staying in with that stop where it is. I posted the lower TF chart a few days ago, if you wish to see why the stop is placed there.
My personal way of trading this differs from some people here.
Chances are that stop will be hit and I exit with locked-in 4 x risk. ...I'm also waiting for another opportunity to add another short position. If the first position is still there as well then woohoo!
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kind of late B for my liking....12700 - first touch was rejected on Thursday...
I'm not a big fan of IBs...
.
I had the same opinion on IBs
I've begun to 'Get' IBs lately though. ...Especially looking for instances where an IB will combine with its brother to create a pseudo pin etc and other placement issues that I've noticed.
MM wise, a DJ trade might get out my league anyway. I'll wait and see.
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What type of price actions confirms that the odds of a breakout are higher than that of a bounce?
Hi Eklavya,
This ones harder to explain. It's a discretionary opinion. In general though ,if you get a flat gathering of bearish/bullish bars tapping against a resistance or support line, it usually just a case of the restricting orders on the other side wearing down till breaking point
It's never a certain thing and I don't trade a break as such. I'd rather wait for any break to give a pull back.
Like I said, discretionary. It's not a set up for me anyway.
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Good morning. I am studying price action and I am just a beginner. I would like to start by thanking you all for the excellent posts and analyses I have read.
pipsja's and giraia's posts have raised a question. Could somebody take a stab at explaining how price action on the H4 chart can be traded off bars/candles like these with different data feed times?
I would surmise that similar candle formations could occur on the daily or weekly. Is price action trading much more difficult than it looks?
That's an awesome example Smikester.
Anyway, it's only a problem if you get upset about missing every decent move in the market. ....Really, if you think about it.
There are so many opportunities that you do catch to worry about it. Enough to make you consistent money anyway.
If you want to watch two different feeds though , do it. I wouldn't recommend the stress. Depends how busy you want to keep yourself.
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Im with you on the timeframe matter. I played a few "A" pins on the 4hr recently which has lost me money, whereas the day pins seem to play out better. Im sure to a pro they both play out just fine, but since i am not a pro then the dailys timetable is much more reliable for me to work the trade through. It takes more patience but i think its worth it. Until i really MASTER the daily, I think i have learned my lession on trading anything less, which is to stay away from them until ready.
Sticking to daily charts until you are good has another purpose. I don't think I've ever read of a successful intra day method/system that didn't feature daily and higher time frames as a key to establishing the primary trade direction.
Most intra day trades I take now are due to what I see on these higher time frames and it's working for me. ....any counter-trend trades are strong set-ups I've learnt from experience and are rarer!
So definitely learn to trade daily charts successfully first. You use them later anyway!
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The daily charts are not that clear at times. For instance like GU or recent, it is up today, down tomorrow. This type of chart confuses me. I prefer noting support and resistance and use the 4hr time frame to trade.
I hear you, and I do the same thing, but it's when the daily IS clear that you can get bitten.
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I have this PB on my 4h chart, I would appreciate any comment, It appears to be at a swing high, and coming off a ppz, the nose is nice and long and the open and close are fairly close to each other in the bottom third of the candle. From where I am it looks pretty good, but I may be missing something.
Awesome.
Also off a T/L I had drawn for some reason on the weekly. (This is a daily and ignore the incomplete daily bar that looks like a pin. )
In my opinion, worth risking a trade.
Also looking good to be a two bar pin on the IBFX feed.
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Dang the USDCAD pin broke by 5 pips picking me up and then shot in the opposite direction.
edit: Pretty nice pin on the EURAUD, but I don't like how against the longer-term trend it is.
I forgot about it. lol
I was waiting to see if it broke out of range, started doing something else, then went to bed. I should have put a sell stop on.
It wasn't the best looking pin anyway, I s'pose. Position and confluence was great, but probably a good example of a pin forming at resistance/support just because there is opposition. A longer nose would have meant a strong reversal in short term sentiment and given us a a better chance.
Still a trade I would take.
Though I was intending to use my lowest trade size on it. Those weaker pins work a lot too when they are positioned well. (but only on a break!)
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Any idea's what the gist of the message was?
Thanks
John
Hi John, if I may....
There were a couple of posts with missing images due to server crashes or the like. I do remember #58 being one of them. It was discussed a long time ago and Jim couldn't remember what was posted. ...Forgivable when you consider how many charts he has gifted us.
I wouldn't be too worried what about missing out on something, as reading through the thread , most techniques are discussed and exampled numerous times.
,Bundy
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Staring at me the moment I opened MT4 during my break earlier today.
Wasn't planning to trade for a couple of weeks due to work , but when this happens , ya gots to take it.
Too easy when 50% ret is in confluence with a strong PPZ. Taken a 3rd off profit right here .
...Targetting around abouts the lower dark blue area for the rest (but watching) , with the stop currently moved into profit too.
Sitting back , watching some Tee Vee before bed, checking the chart every now and then.
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.
Probably penetrated a little bit further than I'd like, so I'd want a GOOOOOD STRONG Bearish Outside Bar on close of this bar please!
.
. EDIT: Check this out.... (Those that have shaky success with PA take note!) Jim emphasises the importance of confluence in picking successful A+ trades. It seems to be missed by some newcomers here lately. Look how much work this has to do to go up. If this current price action had bounced cleanly off of the blue shaded area like the swing highs preceding it you'd be crazy not to go short. Imagine this on a daily chart.
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No really. Pick situations like this and you sleep better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
.
Probably penetrated a little bit further than I'd like, so I'd want a GOOOOOD STRONG Bearish Outside Bar on close of this bar please!
.
. EDIT: Check this out.... (Those that have shaky success with PA take note!) Jim emphasises the importance of confluence in picking successful A+ trades. It seems to be missed by some newcomers here lately. Look how much work this has to do to go up. If this current price action had bounced cleanly off of the blue shaded area like the swing highs preceding it you'd be crazy not to go short. Imagine this on a daily chart.
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On page 8, Post 111; Jim shows a chart of DBLHC on the Daily Eur/Jpy which doesn't prove successful (let's just say it was delay a few days)
On this chart he refers back to the chart on Post 58, page 4. The actually chart is on Post 59. Trust me on that,
I . . umm . . archived that chart and noted the page and post number. (archived is such a better word then copied.)
Anyway, Jim made an error on referring "everyone go back and look at post 58", he meant to say post "68", which is now post 69. It was post 68 back then, again confirning from my archives.
Post 69 shows a failed DBHLC on the 15 min and he explained ways to check higher time frames and so on.
Not to be argumentive, but I believe this setup has a high potential. I would wait for the break and place the stop loss above the 50% retrace or 61.8 fib.
That's alright Jim, I agree it has potential. I'm just looking for trades that have the best chance of succeeding and I'm not inclined to start a new trade there with that PA for the same reasons RM said.
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I've enjoyed your posts for a long time here on FF, and it would be a shame to not see your posts here for a while. I would deeply appreciate it if you would reconsider posting here for the time being. I think I speak on behalf of all the other members here on this thread. You have enlightened us all with your posts.
Rac hasn't said he is abandoning us here. LOL
The great thing about this thread is the rotation of guys taking in turns to help out. It takes time being an active participant in a forum and every one of us here has a life outside of FF. Sometimes you find other 'callings'.
I'm sure Rac will still post here occasionally.
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guyz is there any thing that can move my stop loss to Break even when my 1st tp is hit other than manually doing that coz that usually happens whiLe i am away :'(
There was an Expert Advisor someone wrote (Stockwet) that could do this . ....I think it could. Never used it. It's called "Manage Take Profit" , but does more than the name suggests.
It only took one bar to go down, but needed two bars to go up. If it took more time to go up, isnt the market more bearish?
Hi Simon,
What happens when a BIG entity needs to take some profit?
If someone has a very large position to get rid of, they can do it in stages over many hours, or even days. With really big orders they have to. ...This can cause quick bars against the predominant direction as they empty out a portion of their (or their clients) position over a period of time, let the market recover, and then close out a further parcel. (OR they may be establishing a position in the opposite direction. Let's not forget that! ) . ...This is happening ALL the time.
OR another possible reason...
What if most traders decided to wait for a pull-back after the level ( or trend line) broke??
In this case the buy orders thin out until we hit everybody's buy level (or levels), where they expect to get back in.
This can be one reason why a pin bar etc can fail. That's why you need a confluence of events and why you don't just take any old set up. A pin can form just because someone or a group just has to change their exposure right there and then. ...one reason anyway.
That's not to say we aren't going down from here, but personally, I'm willing to risk a known portion of my account on it continuing up in the current circumstances
...IF I get a good entry.
Hopefully this makes sense? Have been trying to to write this and watch a movie at the same time!! LOL
.
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The point was to be mindful of market noise and that there's logical explanations to it all. Watching those PPZs can help a lot dude. ...Ignore all the crap until you hit one. LOL
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Hi all,
I've noticed that there is a lot of mention of pin bars(pb) on this thread.
Can someone send me the link to an explanation of them plse.
Rgds
Stew
Hi Stewrigh,
The first few pages of this thread are golden. You will not regret reading from Post 1 . Read all of James16s posts at the very least. It won't take long to find the first mention of pins. It's only a handful of pages in.
....By then you won't want to stop reading the rest anyway! Your soul will be sold!!!
I know you want an exact link. But really, it's really worth finding it the good way.
.
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As for cricket yeah you Aussies have the possesions ten years in a row now and i can discuss a lot abt circket which BTW is my other obsession but this does'nt seem to be the right place to discuss abt it, maybe in the member's lounge cuz this is the big boss' thread, i hope i am already not making him angry...
You're right mate. Jim's a kind hearted and generous fellow and won't mind a little bit of talk. He likes Crickets. He likes all god creatures.
Sorry, just putting my self in our american friends shoes. Cricket?? LOL
j/k
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I have a question on trading the TWO CONSECUTIVE MATCHING LOWS or HIGHS breakout. In a downtrend, can we enter the trade as soon as we see the price is lower than the two consecutive matching lows or must we wait until the close of the bar following the two matching lows to see if it is closed below the two matching lows?
Hi awxu,
I thought someone would have jumped in, but I guess your question's gotten lost amongst the raft of posts the past 24 hours. lol
You are pretty much correct. Yes, you enter on a break of that double (or tripple etc) price point. I prefer 3 pips personally. You can even set a stop order if you like. The MOST important aspect in trading those setups is being VERY strict on the prevailing trend aspect with them. ...Check your higher time frames. Otherwise they very quickly become a 50/50 situation. Which is useless to us.
.
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A method I'm going to try tomorrow morning . . . wish me luck Bundy.
Careful!!!
Double bottoms, flags, scallops, wedges, head and shoulder patterns, dead catters, ....and a lot more... a fair list these days.
There's quite a few little tell-tale patterns, and methods of trading them, I've got in my head besides the bar setups we talk about here. Not to mention all those little situations you bank up and recognise as helping or hindering your chances depending on the instrument time of month or whatever. You got to be fully aware of your resistance support factors at the time before taking a trade. Know your chances.
You scared me when I read that!
Demo only for now,man!! PLEASE!!!
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That's NOT a A+++ set-up by a long shot Ghous. ...no offense.
I agree with the trend line you drew and it totally disagrees with the direction of your price bar.
It should also be at an obvious swing high , where as this one's just part of a small pause.
It's a very low grade position in my opinion.
Look to see a lot more space around your pin. The current one's nearly a direct neighbour to the preceding string of bearish bars.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous
Here is a perfect PA setup for the Au short all the wa down breaking the rising wedge to head for 0.95 as the next major stop...
Although i am done for the week it was a great trade to be taken and i would'nt have hesitated if i wuld be going along like this week for the entire next week, Going through the guest page on Jim's PF i saw his great idea on a trading plan, and will be looking forward to backtest it starting from next week, i am done with the layout on my wordpad page and i am all set for next week!
Best of luck!
Regards,
Ghous.
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That's NOT a A+++ set-up by a long shot Ghous. ...no offense.
I agree with the trend line you drew and it totally disagrees with the direction of your price bar.
It should also be at an obvious swing high , where as this one's just part of a small pause.
It's a very low grade position in my opinion.
Look to see a lot more space around your pin. The current one's nearly a direct neighbour to the preceding string of bearish bars.
My take...
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Hi Bundy, there is no offending matter here you have all the right in the world to disagree, however i would like you to hear my end of thought as well...
i think it was a good short on Au because it was basically a breakout trade, a trade that i was (and still am) anitipating to break the trendline.
let me show you an example...(refer to the attatched chart)
Great post! ...I'm hearing you .
Very much a "traders trick" entry technique. A great one , which works very well, in many instances. (Even used it Wednesday on an index trade. lol) They're a great way to enter a trade and have something banked before the main test. Often use it when day-trading daily bar set-ups.
...But at the same time I personally still use a confluence of some sort for that early entry even. Mostly in the company of a pattern with an expected projection target.
The reason I do that is I always want my new trade's stop-loss protected by a strong wall ...so to speak.
Not knocking anyone else's techniques. It's just the way I prefer to do things. I'm a lot pickier with my trades than I was 12 months ago and it's a trait that gets stronger every month.
Regarding the A+++ rating thing: To illustrate my point, allow me to post another chart....
( this following chart doesn't take into account higher time frame charts, which you should always check, people. )
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I still cant figure out why on the the lower time frames its much harder to read pin bars. I understand that you have allot of noise, and that your looking at price through a microscope, but I thought a pin bar is a pin bar. When I trade the 15&30 min I just feel like I am gambling at the black jack table ....LOL!!
Think about how easy it is for one trader to move the price 15 pips as opposed to 200 pips (a possible a daily pin range)
That's why it's harder to trade the lower time frames. The lower you go down the more you are getting caught up in general business and other traders positioning. These creating pin bars for no T/A reason. ...just a random event, sometimes even traders over reacting to a previous support area and such during a strong trend for example.
There IS more to it (trading lower TFs), yes. Nothing that can't be learned though. (Like making sure your pin is in the right place for starters.) ....But it's a lot easier learning the main skills on a stable time frame like daily or higher. So many other skills to get good at first, like patience, discipline and confidence. And you can get rich trading dailies anyway! Get good at them first. It's worth it.
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DUH! i think i am confusing myself here. when we say two matching highs, to make this setup valid is it essential for the last bar to have a close higher than the previous one or is a higher low enough of a confirmation.
i am still new to IB's, Obs's and double bars (DB's)...
Thanks,
Regards,
Ghous.
Hi Ghous,
You will get a pretty clear picture if you read the first few pages of the thread.
If I get some time later I'll point out some examples.
(...Unless someone else can do the honours? )
,Bundy
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It's rare to find a real strict one (pip to pip) with a real good lower close, but here's one in Oils past. (4 Hour Chart)
You can see the significance of the formation by looking at a good one like this.... (and can occasionally get good ones at a swings high/low such as this)
Breaks of double lows/highs are another matter. I've gotta run. James has the best examples. Right near the start.
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I'll wait for a retrace to 1.5520 area on this one though. If we get one! lol
Sometimes you miss a trade.
...but better to miss a good move than to enter a trade badly.
Was waiting for the pullback ...pink arrow. This time I had a limit sell at 1.5517
Didn't even get a good PA confirm entry. (in my book)
THEN I was hoping for a pullback after the DBHLC ...yellow arrow...(which broke the preceding low and trendline AND PPZ return). Not an A+ trade , but from experience, I knew it was a good trade to take, ...for me.
As Jim says. "Sometimes they just take off and you miss the trade". ...or something like that.
Tomorrows another day people. For this pair anyway. We'll get mor pullbacks etc. My account is less stressed now, by forgetting lost opportunities quickly and moving on.
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Break of the 212.00 ppz with retrace and rejection with 4hr pin. First time back to the 150 ema. 365 first tentative tp
I entered that one too HP, but got out as soon as my eyes ventured to the daily chart. ...and reversed the position when I seen the Outside Bullish Bar on the 1 hour and it's subsequent pullback. The daily pin-like bar wasn't that good, that's why I wanted another reason first to enter above the PPZ.
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Hi HP. Thank you for posting the GJ chart. I really value all of the great charts that are posted by all of the experienced traders on this thread. That chart you posted makes sense to me, however I kept my long trade in tact because of the nicely placed PB at yesterdays close. My current view is that we will see the 213.90 area if we close on 1hr or 4 hr above 213.13.
Hi KF
Not sure about 213.90 ( myself ). I'm aiming lower. ....213.40-ish .
And that 213.13 you mention is a barrier for sure. That's why I've already taken some profit on this one.
Edit: Oh yeah, watch out for divergence on the daily chart too.
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Mike covered it pretty well. I have a couple of tips.
1. There is a book called "Trading In the Zone" by Mark Douglas. A lot of what you are describing is psychological, as you pointed out yourself. Depending on your english, read this.
2. Choose ONE setup to learn on. Make it Daily Pin-bars. Choose only the best pin bars setups (at good confluence points) and, as a beginner, enter ONLY on a break of those pin bars. Place your stop loss 6 pips beyond the 'nose' of the pin bar. (6 pips is my choice, these are daily charts remember)
Look at your chart and plan ahead to where you will take your first profit. (Don't be too ambitious with this target. Make it the fist PPZ. If the first PPZ is too close, don't take that particular trade. Wait for a better one.)
Now.... As far as you are concerned there is NOTHING you should do about this trade until it reaches that first profit point. ....ABSOLUTELY nothing. The trade will either hit that first profit point , or stop out . Nothing in between. What is there in between?? Noise!! So why watch your trading screen until then?
Set an alert for that Profit level. ...If it stops out then wait for the next trade. They come along often enough and over many trades you will be ahead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jankone
One word : FASCINATION
I'm here 6-7 weeks, im on #400. Very nice, big thx to Jim, Wiz and Seekinglight.
Actually i trade real now, but i have some problem vs demo trading "that u cant learn"
1) Stay in trades? my fear about my money ( faster B/E, smaller stop loss after 50-100 pips open - sometimes it's not enough on Week trades).
How do u guys stay in ur trades? I'm addicted, I need to watch my open trade every 5 minutes while i want to stay here for some days / weeks. Usually i take fast profit ( some weeks ago, i take 160 pip profit with fear about my open profit and then in a few days the market make another 500 pips )
2) How to 100% enter to my "best pin bar"? Sometimes i get stoned,i can only watch, what my pin bar is doing but im stoned and some hour after that i count pips and curse myself. What's problem? "fear of another loss" ?
Thx for every tip and sry for not good eng. I like you guys, I'd like to stay here and some months later join PF.
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Just wanted to give some credit to Mike. You are a good man. The things you have been doing for me (member of J16) and other struggeling traders is just phenomenal. I wish you all the best the world can offer you. Imagine if the world was packed with people like Mike.... Keep those videos coming!!
T
....totally agree.
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Jim's use of the abbreviation PPZ stands for Pivot Point Zone. (Not to be confused with floor trader pivots. Though both can line up by co-incidence ....heh heh heh ...confluence! )
They are areas of support-come-resistance (and vice versa) that price respects from both sides. Successive zones can be very close to each other and can be powerful roadmaps to base your trading around.
He has two zones roughly marked out. The "sky blue" horizontal lines. Note the use of the word 'zone'. For the most part they are narrow price ranges rather than exactly to the pip.
In Jim's chart...
After the pin formed and closed you enter on a break of the pin's low.
Your'e next place of interest is the first pivot zone (top horizontal "sky blue" line on Jim's chart). This is the perfect example of the type of first target you should aim for. It's the first expected resistance to further progress (well, "support", technically speaking, of course!) and, in this case , it also has reasonable space from the entry point to give you a worth-while target "profit-wise" versus your trades risk.
If the pin was sitting just above the line I wouldn't take it. But, then again, if the pin was sitting just above that line it would more likely be in sideways traffic anyway.( Which we all to avoid on a bar to bar basis! Don't we!? )
When your market reaches this support area, take profit on part of your position ,and move your stop-loss on the remaining.
...You have a free trade AND some profit.
NOW you have to learn how to manage the rest.
How do you do that?? These Price Pivot Zones are the key. Two exit scenarios...
First exit scenario...
You trail your stop just behind the previous PPZ once you have seen a decent move into that next area (be generous with your buffer size) . This "exit type one" is purely a trailing stop. The exit is when the stop loss is hit.
Second exit scenario....
On the same time frame as your entry there is another entry (setup) in the
opposing direction later on. (i.e. Another opposite pin ) ...It should be obvious here what you do.
There are situations where you move your trailing stop other than using PPZs.
If you get a strong PA based formation that creates another protective area. i.e. At some point in your trade there is a pull-back, and then another pin forms at a complimentary swing high/low. (A lot of the time this will coincide or even create/define a new PPZ anyway. ...so you there you go!)
There's more. But, if you enter only A+++ trades (those with great confluence and perfect PA bar formations), using proper position sizing, and then manage your trades based on PPZs as above then you have the tools to grow your account. All that is left is to practice and get your head right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhnip
Hi Bundyraider,
Good tips, I've read the book. You mentioned "the first PPZ", I see somewhere saying it means protected profit zone but how to define the zone, do u know? is it an indicator or just define it based on some study such as S/R ?
c. What platform are u using and do u use pinbar indicator for alert? I'm using MT4 and I hope to find the indicator?
Regards,
Kim
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guys what do u think after getting the signal on the daily placing the enteries based on the 4hr chart
FOR THE SAKE OF MINIMIZING THE RISK
coz some wiseman once said novice traders always try to maximize their profits while professional traders always try to minimize their loss
okay it wasnt some wizeman it was JAROO
Ezz, this is something I do a lot of.
What you have to realise though, is it's more to do with learning to read resistance and support well. When you get really good at this, going down time frames isn't as important.
.
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It is at the swing high of the chart. However, the nose of the PB doesn't protrude out significant enough as it is too close to the high of the left eye. I don't think it is a A+ PB. Any comment?
Regards,
Kim
That's correct.
The pin-like bar is stacked side by side the preceding bars. It's part of the sideways traffic.
It does give a likely direction, to me, but if you aren't picky with your trade selections you may as well throw random orders out there.
.
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I just wanted to get some thoughts on this Aussie. I have been in for quite awhile and was thinking of pulling the trade due to this 4hr Pin. But the nose is pretty short, but we have had a huge descent very quickly. I know it probably wouldn't be a trade I entered, but would it be a sign of a slow down and perhaps a good retracement? But as you can see it hasn't really broken to the upside? I do have a marked support around the .8750 area on the daily chart. I just am not sure what I see, which is why I don't trade on the 4hr, but am looking to learn on exiting as I am doing this on demo.
Thanks!
One thing I love about a trade I've been in for a long while is the luxury of exiting purely by stop hit. ( Unless there's a strong entry in the opposing direction.) One option if I think the run is over is to bring the stop really close rather than just hitting the close button there and then. If things continue on you're still in. Back test it.
.
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You might want to look more closely at the daily and take your signals from that timeframe - the 4 hourly is more difficult to trade at the best of times and can be suicide in these periods of extreme volatility. James and Seeking each posted an excellent reminder/warning on this point very recently:
The daily is going down the toilet still for the Aussie - a massive drop with no entry signal either direction in my view. Your time may be well spent figuring out the right entry points and conditions on the daily and then patiently sitting and watching. Look for continuation signals as well as reversal signals: no-one knows whether the Aussie will recover or falter from here. Ambush the Aussie but not on the 4H would be my advice.
One thing about the four hour, is it's affected by the different trading sessions. I love it for drawing my trend lines and support etc though.
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It's a bloody nice problem to have Bundy - should be more of it!
I tell you what. With the strong bearish daily bars forming still, nothing short of following daily PA for exit is the way to go. Who cares if you give back a little!
Will be interesting to see how it reacts to the 8660 area.
I don't have any currency trades going either, BTW. ...I wish. LOL
Too much fun with the indices.
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Seems like a perfect PinBar has formed right now on the H4 EUR/USD chart; nose it's not so long maybe. Both eyes at the same level (1.4860 & 1.4858). Do you think we can buy at the breakout? PinBar at 1.4921, buy at 1.4935?
You could. It's in a good position. PPZ and Fib
Will be interesting to see how the daily closes.
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I'm out already with close to 45 pips profit. This has been my problem as Ghous has noted earlier. I feel that this pair can reach to 1.51, but my trading news mentality tells me that 50 pips is enough profit already. I'm kicking myself silly right now for maybe getting out too early. On the bright side, cause I use aggressive entry (ie. not waiting for break of pinbar), I was able to use tight stops, thus more size. Man...that was a good pin though with lots on confluence.
But still, I envy the seniors here who can get literally hundreds of profits in one trade.
Thinking in Pips is probably part of the problem. 50 pips on EURUSD is totally different to 50 Pips on GBPJPY, for example.
GBPJPY can move 2, 3 or more times as much as EURUSD will average in a day. If you size your trade appropriately it makes no difference though.
Sizing appropriately also makes it a little easier to focus on what the chart is telling you, rather than counting pips or watching your equity go up and down and freakin' out because you're risking too much.
.
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Actually, I'm thinking more of the incoming news for USD, which are retail and cpi. While on that subject, can I ask how you manage you trade? Let's say you're in a trade based on a 4H or daily signal already, and there are impending big news for that pair. Do you exit before the news or hold through in the hopeI that the result of the news will confirm the technical signal?
Seeking covered it Y.
I don't worry about the news.
I only stay away from NFP Friday. (In fact I don't bother too much with trading Fridays at all. It's beer o'clock /wind down time here in oz by then. )
I've spent hundreds of hours back testing the set ups I'm trading.
I never took news into account then. Why should I now? The success rate was a function of ignoring it.
The news often creates our set up. We enter it by sight though. Don't need to know 'what' caused it.
Overall it comes back to what I said about back testing.
My confidence in my set ups is based around it. I'm not going to sabotage the results by adding news watching.
. EDIT: To add this quote from mike. Especially the highlighted bit! If a news event causes a fail too...who cares...
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
I wouldn't go too crazy with combining bars and what not, of course this is up to you. All my goal is to pick high probability trades. They certainly won't all work out nor do I expect that.
I just like the level we formed at, the rest is up to the market
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What are your thoughts on discretionary approach to risk.
Let's take PBs as an example. Risking 1-2% on evry PB doesn't make much sense - after all we have "C" PBs and we have "A++" PBs. Why not increase risk to, say, 5% with "A++" PBs?
Well, for starters, Risking 1-2% on every pin bar DOES make sense. Have you heard of compounding??
To give the answer you were probably after though...
"Depends on your confidence/experience."
The ABSOLUTELY NUMBER ONE FACTOR is keeping your account healthy. You want it to be around long enough for you to gain experience. You won't be if you go in too hard and fast!!
If you are choosing those different grade trades well and can manage them well too, go ahead.
....And that's not just the past handful. If you've established yourself a track record of being profitable for a quite a while, then by all means ramp up the percentage on the A+++ trades when you trade them. (Those trades will be MUCH MUCH rarer by the way. Once a month. Sometimes there might be more.)
Just be SURE that you are not letting greed cloud your judgement. (and that's very hard to avoid.)
If your asking this question, then I'm sure you shouldn't be going for %5 risk. It's too much.
...That only allows for a handful of losers before your account is busted!
How about increasing it a little bit for now on those 'best A+++ set up' trades, eh?
Maybe 3% ...on the absolute best daily pin bars only.
...Try that first for a while.
And careful of how much of your account is in the whole market!
Don't go and risk 3% on two trades at once on similar pairs just because everything throws signals up on the same day.
Edit: I hope no-one reading this goes straight to trading these percentages. It's not good for anyone with an un-proven trading history still! Not good at all!!
.
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Im watching more than 10 currency pairs. And similar setups time to time comes up on several pairs.
What are those pairs who act similar and who act in different light?
Because, I have been in situations, where I put 2 orders on similar setups and they both go against me, because these pairs act similar.
I'm more interested in those pairs, who act absolutely different, to get unique setups.
I hope you understood what I wanted to say.
Hi Stop,
Simplify man. You have no idea how much good it will do you to focus on one or two or three pairs and gain confidence in their movements. Learn to SEE resistance support factors. ....learn to read and feel the price action at it's heart beat on those few pairs. You'll have more time to do so.
EURUSD is good to trade. And cheap
USDCAD moves different enough to add to the watch list.
And a GBP based pair. GBPJPY doesn't suit some account sizes though. (?)
Someone else maybe can throw a couple of more suggestions??
Edit: P.S. There are very successful traders out there that trade only one pair!
.
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Perhaps, adding to the position (under right conditions) is a better way to increase position size, especially if you can increase the size and still move SL to a BE point...
Can be for sure. Adding to positions is another skill to learn, of course. Once the basics are truly mastered.
Adding at the wrong time can kill a lot of ground work you've laid down , and worse.
I'm glad Seeking added his view too. ...Mine's never conservative enough.
I don't totally agree about randomising the equity curve, though, Seeks.
It can if done inappropriately, of course, but I find it very powerful using chosen risk percentages in certain situations.
.
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Go to your weekly chart CP. Was expecting it to stop around here at the 8660 area. ...23.6% fib. I just wish there was a cleaner chart to draw other fibs off of! At the moment I'd be just making s*** up.
I did have a PPZ drawn, but it's not that convincing. Just one I drew last week as a guess.
Nice looking candle (edit: I mean Pin!!) on your chart. Great looking in fact. Looks very neutral on IBFX though. (Can't be fagged looking at my other sources. lol )
I want to trade what I see here.
If I had your chart though, i'd be happy trading a break high. Fibs based on weekly charts and large range high/lows are pretty strong. Hence the current stall/potential reversal)
Maybe today's close will clear things up.
.
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I can't seem to recall Jim saying anything about not taking a pinbar against the trend. Pinbars by their nature gives a signal to go again a trend. If you are suggesting taking only pinbars on retracement that gives a signal to go with the larger trend then i see you point but I would think that's a matter of trading styles.
Now I don't say you are wrong because I have taken some pinbars going against the trend that end up failing miserable so I am going to do some more research and see if it makes sense ignoring those and sticking to pinbars going with the trend especially if the trend is strong like the current EU one.
Don't worry pipsja.
You'd miss a lot of great pin trades filtering out those against the trend.
It's a lot more about taking really good pins in really good places.
Sometimes those places happen to be at Swing Lows that turn out to be trend reversal points.
Take an awesome pin where there's overwhelming confluence and you won't see Jim arguing about trend. ...I know that much!
Do the research anyway though. It's always a good thing!
.
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Yes agree. You want to see the nose touch the S/R but not go through it so far
The nose can protrude. (Nice when it doesn't)
It's just generally a good sign (in the case of a pin) to see the open and close on the favourable side of your PPZ (or trendlines etc). I find it a questionable signal whenever it is on the wrong side. (for me anyway)
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additionally, the "ppz" wasn't all that convincing ... when looking at nov07, jan08, and feb08 ... everytime price got to that same level it went south not north ...
I'm guessing that we are looking for a trendline.
1.4347 is a level that's going to put up a hell of a fight.
Let's not rule out a major trend reversal either. We can't go assuming.
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Well, the feeling was the discussion started as the PBs started to fail. After PBs just formed the mood was somewhat different...
I think you'll find that was a different group of posters earlier. lol
I'll admit I was watching the chart, but eventually you wake up to those times when you're umm-ing and aaaahh-ring and just sit on your hands as far as committing goes.
(I did have some fun between PPZs on a naughty time frame though. )
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I think this discussion about failed pins is futile. Even though for some a pin might be good enough to take, there will always be someone saying well the nose is not so long, or my PPZ was above that pin so I didnt take it. Which comes to show again that PA is more art than science.
IMO, the main reason for the failure of all the USD pairs pins is this crazy dollar buying, which scares me actually coz you never know where it will finish. In a normal market, I think those pins would have worked great. Its not normal, again IMO, that there is no retracement in the euro fall for 1200 pips and the price just shoots through 2 important support levels. Its scary.
I think we just have to get used to the fact that pins fail, its normal, nothing works 100%. Therefore careful with the MM.
Just my 2 pins.
Well said.
The only bit I disagree on is , being pickier DOES make the difference. There are a mixture of opinions here. Some of them very valid. Trading a pin into a brick wall never helps, for example. Neither does trading a neutral bar as a pin.
.
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Just started playing around (well, working hard ) with ForexTester
Got it! I'd recommend it to everyone here, hands down. Practice your PA strategies. Learn to manage your trades. Get confident that it works.
Quote:
P.S. I still cannot figure out how to close part of the position, so have to resort to opening several identical ones and closing some when needed.
You can't yet. I do the same as you.
Next version will add the ability to close partial positions (apparently). I can't wait. If there were any reason to hold off buying, it would be that. The author knows it's important to add anyway.
.
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Why the lame excuse of the failure pin on the Euro due to different data on Brokers? Fact is, it was a Textbook pin that failed. People would have more respect for you if you just just admit they fail as well as pay out. I have noticed more failures than winners lately, maybe I'm looking at the wrong broker feed, (I have 4 running)?
So I take it from your comment you didn't trade it then? You never said. How about some 'pre-move' charts instead of 'post move' ones?
Mate, your criticism would ride better with everyone taking part in this thread if it looked like you even bothered to understand the techniques here. Or even bothered to read the posts leading up to Jim's post.
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It's just nice to see someone take the time to say, 'here is how to combine all of these aspects in to a system. This signal is more important than this signal. etc. etc. Look for this, that, and don't be stupid taking every trade. This isn't hard people."
You come from the same place a lot of us successful J16 converts come from.
James has a knack for teaching and reaching.
Which makes sense. He's "been there" and knows how to communicate his empathy. And knows how to use that skill to help those who are prepared to put in the required patience and effort. ...Those willing to be serious business men and woman.
(added that last sentence to please 'da man!' ....and it's so true too.)
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* Trendline (derived from 'close' priced line chart)
* 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Drawn from December lows to recent highs.
This isn't a A+++ trade, of course.
I'm willing to take this one though. It's a 'cute' (lol @ Jaroo) outside bar against a trendline with some Fibonacci confirmation and a 1st target that is not way too close.
First target is 1.4872 area. (marked by yellow arrows) I'll cover my a... right here. Taking off two thirds of the position here this time around since it's not an ideal Risk/Reward ratio, but IS very likely to hit this first target. (I want strong cover for any remaining position. )
The fact that we have at least stalled for a few days makes it more likely to at least hit here. (if it doesn't, then... whatever ...who cares. It's less than 1% of my account. ) When we hit, I'll more than likely move the rest to break even.
The second chart (line chart of close prices) shows how i've chosen this TP level by taking the first swing-high close of the consolidation area from late last year.
NOW....
....for my other little marked area. The potential A++ trade.
(Take note, not 3 pluses! )
The BEST trade is going to hit at around about that blue box or so. (
Look at all the events that line up.... (bewwaaaahahahaaa!!! )
* TWO trendlines. ...One you can't see because it's just about spot on with the other. One is drawn from weekly chart using bar lows. The second is derived from the line chart. ...Satisfies two groups of thinking on this subject. ALWAYS good.
* 38.2% Fibonacci retracement drawn on weekly chart (Chart 3) and defined by late 2005 lows to recent highs. (There is ALMOST another fib from the monthly chart too, btw. It's too far out of reach and would have to destroy the integrity of all the others to be hit.)
* Yellow support line. Draw it from weekly line chart. Daily line chart. Daily lows.. or whatever, I don't care. They're ALL close enough to that Fib line.
There could be more. Got enough. Don't have to look at moving averages pivots etc.
If we get down to this level. This trade is going to be a no-brainer once we get PA confirmation. A guy could wait for these types of trades and be VERY successful. And they come along more often than you think.
Will we get there though? ...My gut feeling (which I don't trade) says it's a magnet that will be reached over the coming weeks.
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It's better to have the close completely below the previous bar and I certainly prefer that close to be as close to that NEW bar's low as possible. The close being in at least the lower third, and preferably, lower quarter or better.
There's a confusing element when you refer to Japanese candle-stick patterns , where an engulfing pattern prefers just the real body (the bit between the open and close prices) of the second candle to engulf the real body of the previous.
If you choose your trades well , as far as position goes, you can generally get away with looser definitions. Like every pattern, taking a trade in the stronger trend direction and on the right side of a support/resistance line will help your end of year results.
.
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Engulfing candles don't have to, the real body of the second bar must engulf the real body of the prior bar
You know, all this time I thought Jim's bar definitions were more strict than a candle patterns on outside patterns. Looking at his post again I don't know how I got that impression. lol
I certainly prefer an obvious outside range myself anyway.
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i havent. Im just dissapointed in the price reaction so far. I still have my stop is below the BUOB low and am also long EY btw. Im a newbie in J16 PA, so Im demoing all the PA formations until Im starting to get a feel for the A++ ones.
How are you going with that one?
Keep in mind that strong momentum is like a big ship trying to change directions G. Any type of PA that you use as a reversal is going to hit those lower fib retracements quite a bit. More often than not, anyway.
Set your stops and , if you like, an alert for the first take profit area...
You shouldn't have to man your trading screen at all.
...You either get an alert to tell you to close part of your position and move your stops ....or your trade hits its stop-loss, and you're out, waiting for the next opportunity. If you get a take profit locked in, check once a day for trade management.
Watching the ups and downs just does your head in. The trade either works or it doesn't. Do something else in the meantime. Like researching trade management strategies or finishing your painting in the studio. LOL
The current EURUSD one is still in an awkward position, so will take a while to play out if it's a winner.
It could take days yet to un-trap itself from current support and the nearby resistance.
.
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"....First target is 1.4872 area. (marked by yellow arrows) I'll cover my a... right here. Taking off two thirds of the position here this time around since it's not an ideal Risk/Reward ratio, but IS very likely to hit this first target. (I want strong cover for any remaining position. )...."
Ding Ding Ding Ding!!!
Alert hit. (...and Bundy rudely awoken. )
Profit taken on 2/3rds of position and, for those who wonder about trade management still, a good place to move the stop (in this case) is to below yesterdays low @ 1.4669 (or to break even if you prefer, but depending on where you would have got in, that could be too close for now. The trade would have no room to breath)
In my opinion it's too early to move any closer. The whole idea is to take some profit and pay for a longer term trade.
Maybe next time the first 'take-profit' point will be bigger. lol
Now you keep watching daily bars around closing time. Trailing behind support lines when available.
.
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Well, it's true one has to be more carefull with H1 than D1 (to some extent... as one ALWAYS has to be carefull )
But setting up a D1 trade and seeing it die after a few days is not a pleasant experience. Losing is never pleasant, even if you take it "easy" as "that one didn't work, so what..." But (for a newbie) seeing a 200-loss (even with MM in place) is still psycologically more difficult than taking a 30-pip punch on the chin with H1 (even though 1% is 1% )
ALSO (!): D1 trade (if you allocate 1-2% of the capital to it) means staying OFF the market during that time (i.e. passing all other good potential opportunities). With H1 one knows sooner whether the trade worked on not (typically, in a few bars, i.e. hours).
I do NOT advicate starting with H1, but I can see (plenty of) the reasons for preferring it to D1 (whether newbie or not...).
All the reasons you mention as negatives to trading daily are exactly what a new trader should be learning to deal with psychologically anyway.
There are plenty of brokers now that offer 1c USD per pip (and even less).
Learning on Daily charts is a must. I know it's hard to wait around sometimes, but trying to make money too fast is where most traders go wrong.
.
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I didn't take the last one. ( ...through pure a__e. )
This is a numbers game. ...You have to be in it to win it, as they say. (edit: That's the GOOD ones. Not just every PA setup. )
The first one failed, but when a chart tells you again that it wants to change direction , you listen to it. ...You don't run away just because the Bear bullies beat you up the first time. (...hey , I'm getting pretty good with this poetic shasizzle. )
Really, most daily Pins taken in the right spot will work out.
We only need 'most' , coupled with good money management, to win in this business.
The way I'm trading it...
Buy stop 10 pips above the high of the pin. (4-pip spread plus 6 pips buffer). ...I'm not doing anything less than a break trade on this one. The close is a little low-ish and the price bars preceding this pin have created there own little resistance area that I'd rather see broken. Another important obstacle is the daily 365 EMA. A break of the pin would have this baby out of the way too.
First Take-Profit,for me ,will be the 'green' 38.2 fib retracement of the past 6 months price range. 163.01 ...I'll set my alert to a few pips below.
Expected target is the 'yellow/gold' 38.2% fib retracement, which co-insides with the blue resistance lines shown. I'll be watching how price reacts with this. This would have been my first take profit if it weren't for the reaction history to the above mentioned green level.
Other things I'll be watching out for...
I'm watching the 200 EMA as well (red on this chart). If things move a little too slow this may end up being below my first take profit point. I may even revise the first target because of this ema. If it comes down to greet the first 'green' 38.2% in confluence , that may be the end of the trade full stop. If I've taken profit by then, I'll set the remaining position to break even stop-loss and just manage it day by day from then on.
Edit: This could, through correlation effects , help the EurUsd trade.
.
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I have been lurking around these pages for a while now and have finally decided to join the j16 group. I was wondering what books can i pre-read to be prepared for the group as i am relatively new to forex but would very much like to be involved with a group of ppl who are serious with it and learn as much as possible from them.
Would love it if one of the instructors/group members could recommend a book particularly for the j16 trading style.
Thanks
How much of this thread have you read konobe? What other trading have you done already etc?
Read up whatever you can about Martin Pring's methods, and as much as you can about Technical analysis. Concentrate on methods that involve pure price charts/patterns, rather than indicators such as stochastic, MACD etc. You can get a lot of free information on the net about all this. When you've exhausted all the good information there, then is a great time to join Jim's group. You have good foundations that can be built on.
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Edit: Just to add that James mentioned in one of his posts, 2-3 weeks ago, that EJ chart is one chart that he couldn't find anything like A+ trade, i just don't remember exactly was it the daily or weekly. one.
I remember that one. He was talking about a specific moment that someone had posted about. Not the pairs entire history. They called one formation a pin-bar (without posting a chart from memory) and there was nothing anywhere near being a pin in that area.
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I got really tired of missing fills by 10 pips, so I have shyed away from retrace entries on everything except trades where I see nothing going against me. Entry at the 365 EMA (also 61.8% retrace) looks tempting on this pin though
Is there anything specific you look for when deciding to enter on a retrace vs. a break? For me it's usually % chance that I think the trade will turn into a winner vs. %chance I think it will retrace to that point.
You're kind of on the right track, but you need solid reasons for a particular retrace idea.
A pin isn't valid till it is confirmed by a break. So that's the preferred way to trade pins, of course. Trading this E/J pin by retrace is just not on, in my opinion, as explained in my post earlier.
Deciding on a retrace entry verses a 'on the break' entry is certainly something you learn to 'see' as you gain experience reading charts. It's certainly a lot to do with being good at reading support/resistance very well. Experience man. So don't be dis-heartened. People diving straight into live accounts are often missing little skills like this. They need time to experience them first.
Keep trading the safe entries for now, but at the same time start absorbing observations of what price did at ,say, yesterdays low/high , resistance areas defined by the preceding few bars and so on. You'll pick it up over time. A good example is how a lot of pins have a mirror effect on each side. i.e. the preceding eye (to the pin) can effect where the following eye (to the pin) will retrace to.
Don't be in a rush. The more advanced entry techniques will improve your results, but that means jack if your still not profitable using the foundation techniques. Give yourself time.
.
The James16 Group covers these techniques a lot better than I can. Video examples are way better at conveying the techniques involved
.
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Is there anything specific you look for when deciding to enter on a retrace vs. a break? For me it's usually % chance that I think the trade will turn into a winner vs. %chance I think it will retrace to that point.
Example of expected retrace on AUD/USD Outside Bar
You can see how the 38.2% line is the most likely retrace point. (It also coincides with the daily floor pivot. ) ...but it's entirely possible still to get a 61.8% retrace. Stop would still go below OB . At least you have minimized your risk a little bit.
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Example of expected retrace on AUD/USD Outside Bar
You can see how the 38.2% line is the most likely retrace point. (It also coincides with the daily floor pivot. ) ...but it's entirely possible still to get a 61.8% retrace. Stop would still go below OB . At least you have minimized your risk a little bit.
Possibility 2
1 Hour chart. At yellow 'X'. If there was PA confirmation here you'd have a strong case for an entry.
Some would have there stop too 'tight' here and place it directly under a 1 hour PA setup. Unless you know what you are doing, you're asking to be stopped out by market noise and stop running. This is a Daily bar trade. You're only improving your entry price. You'd keep the stop below the daily bar still. And DON"T watch the chart at this time frame. You'll freak yourself out of the trade. Immediately flick back to the daily.
Demo these ideas only. You'll learn. No need to get greedy.
.
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i have a question about your advanced entry ... do you wait until it breaks and then play the possible retrace you highlighted or simply enter at those points?
I don't need a break. Not if it's convincing enough.
Depends on positioning.
Just to let you know I haven't even thought about this as a trade yet. Was more about giving a couple of examples to answer Cosgrove's question. I should have been clearer about that.
Might be alright still , after taking a quick look.
Looking again...
..There you go , is bouncing off of a trend line that looks alright, with the exception of early August 2007.
Do your own analysis, of course.
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Your professionalism needs a little work. Too bad for that.
I was thinking the same thing.
I hope it's not really Pring. I'd be disappointed if he is just as this poster has represented so far ...Criticising someone before reading all their material.
I'll give the benefit of the doubt for now. It's easy to be misread, as we all know.
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Thanks to everybody, I was just wondering. It was not my goal to post doubts about james16 TS. Is there a pdf files witch resume all the major james16 notions?
Aud's on to it.
One tip. Of all those bars/candles you identified, you'd have narrowed a lot of the bad ones out by filtering down to bars that 'close' in the relevant quarter of the price range.
i.e. Bullish pin would close in the top quarter, Bearish pin in the bottom quarter. ...It's not exact, but limiting to those parameters should be good for learning with.
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I haven't read the whole Thread yet, and it's my first post here, but what I've learned here is, that everyone is nice and kind to help each other, espacially the noobs (like me).
And I'm getting angry over people like pring ( or who he really might be) who only want to spoil this. You call them Troll, I call them A..h... (sorry couldn't resist).
Thank you all for your kindness and your benefit. I know we can learn a lot from you all. (sorry if me english isn't perfect, i'm writing from germany)
cadric
Your english is great cadric.
You're right about the helpfulness here.
With new people gaining experience and then being willing 'putting back in' ,over time I can't see this thread dying out. Not for a very long time.
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Are you thinking that GBP/USD could go lower, breaking the support?? I wanna know ur oponion...
If there is a gap down on monday,i will long the pair till the gap is filled....
sonic'
Don't discount ANY possibility Sonic.
It's about positioning yourself to take what the market gives you, remember.
Good idea with the gap.
A good place to have a gap trade too, if it gaps down.
Check out the PPZ we are currently sitting on.
Any Move down will surely see a pull-back for this reason as well.
Regarding gaps though...
You should be careful of your brokers chart feed.
...For example, IBFX starts late. (Might depend on the time of the year???)
Have been caught out on that myself.
Often a gap on their charts is not a gap in the overall market. It's just that they miss an hour or two of trading info.
BUT ....the pullback to the PPZ and the recent lows is very likely anyway. Regardless of a gap.
After saying all that though, no-ones opinion is going to make you money. It can go any way from here. Trade good solid setups, man.
.
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I'll get over it though.
Edit: I change my mind. This is all f____ up. Can't find anything.
It took Merlin and the guys a while to balance the forum organisation , and now someone has better ideas.
.
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"Best piece of advice I can give, is to find ways of trading that you are comfortable with. Test the hell out of it, and make it your own. This will give you the confidence and discipline to trade it through the ups and downs
Mike"
I keep trying to sneak that one in too, but people don't seem to get it. LOL
I guess it'll take too long to get rich that way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forex007
As Mike said, "different strokes for different folks" - there is no (clear) right or wrong (apart from some key basics), so your approach is as good (for you) as Mike's for him. I tend to be less conservative in my trading, so I am somewhere between you, Ghous, and Mike
Amen to Pull-Backs resumed by Price Action.
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Hello, are you still long on this with a portion of the trade? It seems to me that the pin bar is going to give up.
Was. Yes. Just got stopped out. LOL
I got rid of my first 2/3rds position at 162.95. Would have been nice to see 163.90 at least.
Never got a chance to move the stop on the remainder even once.
Even when I went back over all my charts a couple of hours ago this looked like bouncing and continuing up from around the 161.00 zone. Even thought about watching for a new entry!!. LOL
With that very close first target from my entry point, this has ended up a loss overall. Partly payed for... ...but still a loss.
Doesn't matter. Like I said before, it's a numbers game: ....Some lose, some gain and others don't seem to be worth it.
They are worth it though. ...You need to consistently trade them for the chance at the pay off trades.
So no regrets here.
( Except possibly entering a trade that had a very tight first target relative to the stop. I've been a little uncomfortable with that since I pointed it out.)
Maybe we'll get a short entry the next few days now. ( ...possibly a pull-back trade ) We'll see.
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any comment on the NZD/USD pin bar? Is it going to be beated as well? Such a bad moment for james16 ts, isn't it?
I haven't been watching that pair dude. You mean the weekly pin I presume?
I wouldn't have entered against the pivot zone it sat on. ( I don't think . Easy to say that now. )
You 'd need the opinion of someone who's planned it out on that one. Anyone??
Anyway, if you've stuck it out on the time frame you entered on you would probably have taken some profit with the stop on the remaining STILL sitting below the pin. That's if you're trading the weekly chart on that trade, (with the appropriate position size, of course)
And I wouldn't say bad moment for James16 trades. There will be people who have gained and people who have lost. Depending on there style of trading and what they traded and how well they have the head around it all.
,B
Edit: Thanks Brian. Better job of the chart than me. LOL
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Bundy, on your chart you put "IB come DBLHC". Which bars did you mean - as IB cannot have "higher close" (otherwise it is not an INSIDE bar... )?
Damn! Was hoping I'd get away without drawing those time consuming arrows.
I put a dark yellow box around them in the chart.
Inside bar. And then the smaller bar was followed by a higher closing bar that matched it's low. The higher close was right close to the end of the bar.
...I like that look.
Good place to buy. It just got smacked around by a news announcement ,obviously.
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See post 12748 for my thoughts. I had the same thought you have now. I did not take that PB because I believed it was likely that price would reverse in that area. If the PPZ would have been a daily PPZ I would have taken that PB.
Scott
Right on brud!
You know what they say.... Great minds....
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Third one didn't fail. I caught some pips at the 163.00ish level.
Me too. Just not enough. LOL
Those wondering about failed pins...
They happen.
You can analyse the crap out of your chart to find a reason a trade failed , and you will find a reason. (as a few older hands here keep repeating.)
Stick around. There will be more winners than losers.
You have to have patience. ...It's amazing how often good winning trades come along. Browse the first couple of hundred pages of this thread and you'll see evidence of it.
As well as James16's posts, read mbqb11's and habeeb's posts. You'll see them learning the basics at one stage too and making the same mistakes in identification etc. We have ALL been there.
,Bundy
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Ok sorry I just took over this thread for a bit lol
This is a perfect example like the eur/jpy.
See how price is overall sideways from where this pin was created. Then the nose is just barely sneaking above that other bar high(the purple horizontal lines).
This is traffic to me, meaning if I was to take a trade like this I would be looking to the lows(marked with blue horizontal), for price to likely stall, and meaning move my stop to b/e or taking full profit.
Great timing for this example
Hope this helps a bit
Mike
Amazing how turning the situation upside down can make it clearer too. LOL
The E/J pin I posted was a bit silly. Right from the start I planned to watch the blue line area (on your chart) and take a big chunk of the position off to balance out the crappy chances it had. Jaroo recognised this too. Ok for us 'oldies' to enter trades like that, but not an ideal newcomer trade at all. I guess I should be smarter than that.
Good examples, as always, dude.
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I'd like to share with you one idea.
A few weeks ago, I got angry because of some drawdown with some faults, I was really angry about myself and I felt i need to relax. What happened then? I stop with my plan, absolutely stop to trade.What happened in few hours? Some markets made 4-5 A+ beautiful pinbars where was a little pip risk and big RRR. It could be best day with 700+ pips with risk +- 150 pips. But I wasn't in my anger in. So I could be without old losses and in really nice ++ but I sit here angry and I was thinging too much about last losses.
So guys, BE THE ROBOT, I think it's the biggest goal what can a trader have. good luck. Clear up your mind and go play A+ trades
You're not alone Jankone. I missed the big moves too. I've missed many others over time too. An old habit even showed it's head for me ... "having an opinion" LOL. The worse thing you could have done though is over react, and you haven't. Which is good.
Look at your current time in the market as time spent doing a college degree etc. You might be missing them now, but later on everything will fall into place. One day.
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yes that was the way to go... i know Mike follows a similiar strategy and Jim too recommends to wait for the pin to activate before you jump into the trade...for some reason i was not following this too closely, this could be one of the reasons for it to end up as a loosing trade...lesson learned...
Congrats for the escape...
Regards,
Ghous.
Minimising stops by waiting for a retrace entry can be VERY tempting. (I'm a sucker for it. )
Over time you'll pick up on the higher probability situations where it can be used with a higher chance of success. Just a heap of seat time. lol
Break and pull-back entries are a good balance of both methods. The only risk you run then is the chance of missing out on entering completely. But you don't lose any money when your out, so its a notta so badda eh?
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Break and pull-back entries are a good balance of both methods. The only risk you run then is the chance of missing out on entering completely. But you don't lose any money when your out, so its a notta so badda eh?
Realised, after I posted this before, how I left the bit about risking too tight a stop.
You can end up chasing your tail if you don't play smart.
Wait for good PA confirming that the pullback isn't going to turn into a smash back, and give respectable breathing room. ....And of course practice it and make it your own before going live, as they say.
Have a good weekend everybody!
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If you trade the same risk % per trade don't see how a trade that lasts a few days can make more then a trade that lasts a few min. Just wanted to see if anyone else can do the 5min stuff or less but it seems most are stuck on the 4hr / daily / weekly stuff and that's fine too as long as you can lock in some profits who cares. Also PA is PA if you can read a 4hr it's the same as a 5min or a 1min chart just happens faster but I would not say it has a higher winning rate as long as you don't take dumb trades and use a few time frames to line it up.
Hi Ryan,
I'm happy to see that you've worked out a methodology that works for you on the 5 min etc.
I was looking at your post with the BBs and might even check it out at some point. I've never gelled with BBs in the past and it's something I wouldn't mind conquering.
There's quite a few people that have gone through this thread over the years that can trade lower time frames successfully.
You pointed it out pretty much yourself there though.... "(that you) use a few time frames to line it up". It's also , as you say, faster. ...If you can't trade daily charts successfully for a while and show a profit, how the hell could you do it on lower time frames? All those management decisions etc have to be developed first!
You've developed skills and the ability to read price well. So will many newcomers here over time, but it is a LOT easier getting those skills down pat on the Daily and higher charts. They ARE more reliable in my opinion. There are factors involved in intra-day trading that make things harder, such as time of day and getting caught up in stop running, etc.
There's not a single trade I take nowa days that I don't look at the daily PA first. Even if it's just to read the 'road map' so that I can "day-trade the daily."
Intra-day trading for me is more of an opportunistic thing. If it's there when I look ( a good set up) , I might trade it.
For the record, I finished off the week with two 15 minute trades and on Tuesday, i think, was even trading tick charts. heh heh heh
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True it's whatever works, I may get sick of the 5min and go back to the daily but right now I am having fun, will I be burned out of the 5min in 6months whoknows. Also I have traded the 1min as well and still made the 10 pips a day If you can read a chart correctly you can trade any time frame. The only reason *MOST* people stick to the higher times is because you can play trades that are not as good of a setup due to a larger stop, it's not that it's any different. Print out a daily chart and act like each bar is 5min and tell me what's different.
Spread and the speed at which you will lose your account if you haven't got the skills yet.
I like your posts Ryan, I've been taking some notes myself , but you've also probably encouraged a group of newcomers to go back to intraday charts when they haven't even learnt to manage daily bars consistently well yet.
You know yourself how hard it is to fight you natural tendencies to want fast profits. We all know where that leads.
I have no problem with you posting your charts and tips etc here , they're handy, but Jim, Mike etc have put a lot of effort into keeping the focus here on the higher time frame charts where people can plan and enter their trades without the pressure of watching their screens all day. Besides, Jim's ran the group and this thread long enough now to know the best path for newcomers who are serious about making this work.
I hope this hasn't come off as an attack. I want you to stick around, but continuously pushing how easy the five minute chart is will send many down the wrong path before they are ready. You said yourself you didn't want to make this a debate about TFs.
For every person who can trade the 5 minute chart successfully there are a hell of a lot of people who will blow account after account trying to do the same.
Peace man,
Bundy
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hello guys, would anyone out there be able to confirm that this is a pinbar? Do the parameters meet the guidlines for a pin bar, and how again does one determine the technical target, or do you just play the break and then manage the trade appropriately? Thanks for any insight. Mud.
p.s. the pin would be yesterdays daily candle that I am referring to.
Hi Mud,
Yes that's a pin.
I was personally happy to trade it on a break because of the double bottom it created on the chart.
I suspect that this will break the Sept. 7th high and give us a double bottom chart pattern target around the 205 area, BUT for the moment we still haven't closed the gap in the charts that was created at the beginning of the month (@ 197.59), so this is the area to watch out for. (by that I mean the Sept 7th high and the gap area)
For now there is no reason to close the trade. For some, taking partial profits would be an option. It's sitting at a previous support price (March 7th) and we are hanging around a long term PPZ zone on the weekly chart. With the current strong daily bar, I'm personally leaving it as is. ( My preference only)
My stop loss is currently just below the entry price. ...A pull back to this point in only one day would be a bad sign, so I'd want to be out at that point.
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You should manage your trades in terms of risk to your account as it stands. If you have a situation where you are adding to a long due to a new high probability set up, then that new trade should define your latest stop-loss position in most cases anyway. If on the same time frame at least, the previous trade can have it's stops managed at the same time.
When that second set up was created, you identified a level that would mark the point at which you are not willing to stay in with exposure to that direction any longer.
I often find myself with daily or lower trades on top of existing weekly trades etc. (and vice versa ) ....This is the situation where I use separate trade management. And totally separate too. Sure there can be two trade levels marked on the screen, but it's not that hard to remember which trade is about what. That's what the text tools are for if you need them. Mark the chart if you keep forgetting. "This is a weekly chart trade" or whatever.
The text tool isn't just there for posting charts to forums. lol
Don't bother too much with how many pips belongs to which trade. You should be thinking...
What's the overall risk to your current account position?
Taking into account your current exposure, are you going backwards an unacceptable amount from your current standing if you are stopped out of your trades ?
Will any new trade create unacceptable risk to either your locked in balances or hard earned profits?
Always protect your account.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aSandman
@ Hipster thanks for the encouragement. I have no exit plan/target, I'll make it this weekends home work
@ Ghous ... glad I'm not alone in my struggle for an exit that fits ourselfs.
I would say you made 150 pips. That the trade went 100 pips. Each add is
is different. setup A = 1 lot, setup B (after 50 pip profit in your example) = 1 lot. I would test each one to see if one is more profitable than the other.
If you find that setup B makes more money than setup A, you might be
better off just trading setup B. That's not my idea by the way its Ed
Seykota's. Around 600 samples should get you a confidence interval of
4%. Of course market data wont fit a standard distribution. But hey, at
least it gives us something to work with. Good luck in your journey.
Jason
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because if i go for 3 lots right away and close the trade 100 pips later i have made hundred pips! however if i scale in my trade at 0, 30, 70 and close all three at +100 pips from the first buy i hit...i have made 30+(40+40)+(30+30+30)=200 pips!!!! is that correct? and can i add on this increased total to my overall pips and boast abt them??
If you were after Pip totals for boasting, then no, I wouldn't be counting them that way. ...for example... was it on G/J or E/U??? How many pips were risked to get that? ...Different meaning eh?
It's about how much of the market move did you capture. I think your question illustrates how flawed many system sellers use of Pip counts is. They can make up what ever crap they want.
If you are out to boast about your trading, it's much preferred to do so in percentage gains. "I grew my account %30 a month over twelve months" has much much more meaning to it than"My method pocketed my clients 2300 Pips in June alone!!!" ...It means jack if someone was trading 100 standard lots per trade and had a net gain of 23 pips over that month only, yet multiplied his Pip gain by the number of lots he traded! ...Dodgey!!!
So answer to your question...
What effect did that one trade have on your account? "After risking a total of 1.5% of my account, spread over the three entries, I netted a %6 gain to my account balance . "
"For the 12 months to June I averaged 15% a month for a total of around 535% last year."
It's a much better way to handle your performance figures... ( and no, that's totally not my results! .....I wish!! lol )
If you really wish to use pips, go ahead. But specify it the overall move you captured maybe. I don't do things that way. The only time I mention pips, either here or to myself, is in my R/R and position sizing calculations (and R/R boasting . )
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thanks for posting the indicot needed this is wht i been looking for..i was actually almost going to change my platform as 2 hr candles and 8 hr are really important..
i have to ask thou..it is accurate yes and the candle formations are true, i mean i wont suffer from this indicator being buggy or giving false candle formation? ...i guess im asking is it very relaible..thx for posting..
You should be watching and getting a feel for which formations are strong ones too.
You can technically have a 2 day pin, but that doesn't automatically make it a signal.
Don't expect to trade any indicators' signals blindly.
I see set ups all the time and take probably %10 of them. (guessing the percentage there, but it tells you how many don't make the grade to me!)
I guess, what I'm saying is , regarding any indicators reliability, you should have the skills to identify these formations with the naked eye as well (and even primarily) ...If you don't then there's a good chance you will also be shot gunning your trades in the mean time. i.e. any ole' pin.
...Just a heads up man.
.
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Ignore this crap Ryan. You've answered most of these questions "between the lines" before anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcanarchi
Firstly I'm a truthseeker, don't get defensive, if you're doing it for real there would be no need.
This is what confused me, if you can be done for the day in 15 mins, or an hour, why would you need to learn (and pay to join some site that sells stuff that is free over the net if you can be bothered to look) to trade longer timeframes which would result in you being at the screen for longer to get the same results? It makes no sense to me, then you come on here slagging off the actual method you paid to learn, this again makes no sense to me.
Do you understand my points here?
A successful trader does not need to waste his time trying to learn some new system that will result in hours at the screen.
So if you have been trading this old 5 min rsi/bb method for years, by now you should be up to 10k per pip easily (what are trading at per pip?) So you dont want to prove you are actually trading what you are saying you are, but you want others to trade it? Ok, that's your choice, but in my experience a trader who has nothing to hide will hide nothing.
I gave you the platform to prove who you are, I actually was giving you a help up, you decided to decline and get defensive. I will leave it to the others to work that out for themselves. You talk the talk, but you fail to walk the walk.
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Crap? I take it you're a noob holding on to anything that you think will make some money because you haven't got the intelligence to develop your own trading system?
There is nothing wrong with trying to get someone to PROVE that they actually trade what they present to the public. You need to ask yourself why these people do this anyway. Public recognition? Ego? To help, really?
Example
There's this guy who claims he's a great Technical Analyst, his name Zak Mir. He charges people for news letters/market updates. Back in 2002/3 he had a live debate on a site called ADVFN, the traders off the board could fire questions directly at him, live. He was going through what moving averages he uses etc, then when a trader friend of mine stepped up and asked "do you trade your signals?' as he was live and public, this forced him to tell the truth. 'No' he replied. So my friend replied 'So if you have no faith to trade your own signals, why should anyone else, let alone pay for them'.
This promptly ended the live questions and answers session as there's no reply to that question is there?
This is why I just like to know whether people who post on a bb are for real or not, if you don't appreciate that, that will be your loss in more ways than one.
Look , I'm defensive about this because it happens so often, and, quite frankly, has gotten boring. ...Newly registered users dropping in and asking for account records / proof and making assumptions based on their own view of the world.
And you know what? ...I've yet to see the answering of this request (with real evidence ) resolve anyone's attitude except the people who already believed it. It's also a request that has caused the loss of valued posters when it created more problems for them than they bargained for when they obliged.
Ryans demonstrated certain qualities that, to me, suggests he's got the right mindset. There are usually red flags everywhere when someone tries to fake it and the ones you pointed out aren't on my list sorry.
Sincerest apologies if you meant not to be hostile, but as i said, it's been overdone and always comes off as an attack.
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I've been lurking on this thread for a long time now (and I hardly post), and I think most would agree that what attracted them to this thread and made this thread successful was James' (and the senior members) willingness to help struggling traders and the simplicity of the material.
But recently, the direction of the thread has turned away from what made it great. Maybe this has to do with the lack of J16 set ups recently with a few good ones failing, and people are increasingly frustrated about being out of the market. This is the time to be disciplined, be patient and wait for the set up to come. There has been an increasing focus on lower timeframes, which tells me that people are chasing set ups that may or may not be there - if your trading plan allows you to trade lower timeframes with specific rules then great, if not the you are just breaking your rules. When we lose our discipline at times like these, the markets will hit us hard.
The reason James started this thread (if I recall correctly) was to help struggling traders become profitable. The discussion at the moment is irrelevant, the size of the thread is already putting off a lot of people who would potentially benefit from this material and this is not helped by the clutter that has no relevance to James' teachings.
I would ask all to respect the material that James has presented, and only post relevant information regarding the material. If people are interested in trading lower timeframes using price action, then I would suggest starting a new thread.
Sorry for the rant.
Happy trading
hakga
A good rant though Hakga. I agree with a lot of what you have said.
I've been guilty myself of being off topic here. lol
The thread goes through patches like this every now and then and then, just when you think it's lost relevance, it has a new breath of material that's true to the spirit of the thread.
.
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Also this market is kinda nuts as of late so if you are getting whipped around a little it happens to all of us. I took a crap trade today and lost 2% as I ended the day after my 1st trade because it's 100% news driven so very hard to catch a trend. I may sit the next few days out if we are going to have 300 pip swings, too big of moves for me.
You're not wrong.
Have been taking quick profits and setting break even pretty quick the past few weeks. ...Instead of holding. Kinda weary of session changes too.
Index trading has been a lot easier than currencies lately. ....Except maybe G/J. Gotten pretty tuned in to that lately for some reason. That's about it though. lol
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James said that most traders get killed in a ranging market because they don't know how to trade it. What is the J16 way to trade a Ranging/consolidating market?
Second question, Do you guys set profit goals each week? And if so do you stop trading when you hit them? My pattern has been when I make a few really good trades my discipline get's lax and I give it all back. I have exceeded my weekly goal of .5 % ,up about 7 % for this week. I am thinking of just sitting on my hands for the rest of the week. Thank you all in advance
Jason
Hi Jason,
Trading any market type is a lot easier when you mark out prospective support/resistance flip areas. When you plan ahead and are waiting for an event to happen it's a lot easier to pull the trigger with confidence and stick to your trade management ideals.
Without the drawn in blue lines, the U/J 4 hour chart looks like an undecided mess. Get good at reading this aspect of your charts and you'll find a way to trade sideways price action too.
Given chart...
Yellow arrows point to hint of a good pivot zone forming. This type of respect (second arrow and pin that formed) tells me it's a good "trading zone". Yellow "x" marks are bars that showed further respect. Later on, two further pins would have given great trades.
The two dotted blue lines are also minor pivot areas that act as guides (for me).
...Personally, I am very weary of entering too close to price 'traffic jams' such as these. ...BUT also, plotting these can give you confidence to wait out price move pauses and quick, temporary rebounds, etc. If you are expecting a short move, exiting at these is an option. Even taking part profits and so on. (On lower time frames they will become trading zones. ) Your preference. Yours to practice.
Lots of ways to trade all these of course, but the key is seeing those pivot areas and looking for the potential in any possible move first before waiting for your great entry.
Remember that it's still all about picking the best trades, no matter what type of market condition you are trading.
I'm watching this chart to see what happens.
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Thank you for the excellent charts Bundy. Very insightful, I faded that pin but were so close/ on S/R I only took a very very small position. When I look at a chart I try and think were would I like to get short from? Where would I llike to go long? on that eurjpy I would like to get long after price takes out 147.03 then rebounds quickly.
Jason
Mostly what Mike said. If you didn't get in on a good set up then forget about it. Good trades pop out at you. And they pop out at you when they are ready.
Although those charts I posted gave good reason to avoid the pin, they also show an un-respected support history along that line I drew. I'll often fade the pull-back like mike , but I want a much clearer support line to do that than what's here. Most of the time you can draw a trend-line and it'll support your ideas. Can't do that on those charts. If the trade's not obvious, then don't try and invent reasons to get in so as to not to miss out.
By the way, here's another example (happening right now) of what I was talking about earlier...
This yellow arrowed pin-like bar is like many you should be weary of. (It's no where close to being a pin, of course)
It's actually evidence of price pulling back to a diagonal trendline (again) and NOT a good swing low pin that signifies a reversal. Regardless of what happens here, there are much much clearer set-ups (either way) that don't have the history of the previous bars to fight against.
Mike has said it so many times... You need space. Pick those cherries. This is not one of them.
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That sets me strait. If you miss one , no biggie , always more around the corner. So if the bail out goes threw.... = long term change in trend? I mean this is a big enough event to cause a change in sentiment don't you guys think?
Happy c spanning lol
Jason
Who knows. I could drive myself insane trying to guess.
As long as it kicks the charts into some kind of action.
Don't forget we have NFP Friday too.
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the double top is valid, it's clear that price is finding nice resistance around 1.14, another thing that favors a downmove is the bearish divergence, and with the usd showing weakness all around you can be biased i.e anticipate that it's going to go down.
As much as I try to avoid fundamental bias lately, there are a lot of people pulling money from markets at the moment. They want their US dollars in their sweaty palms. They don't care what the charts say or even care whether the dollar deserves to be valued at current levels. ...It's a force you can't fight. (Wish I was on to that quicker myself. lol)
Expect the unexpected. Be ready to trade either outcome.
.
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Hi everyone, I was considering at what point do you consider a trend line invalid? Do you have any hard and fast rule on this? I noticed Ghous let price swing way past and Mike considered that invalid. I'm coming up on page 300 of the thread but have yet to find a "J16" answer for trend lines.
Thanks!
Jason
Depends on which version of the question you are asking.
Trend line as an on-going trade maker or just as a definition?
I don't like "waaay past" . But I have no problems with taking a trade that has the balance of the price bar pattern on the right side of the trend line. ...The beauty of trading price bars as Jim teaches.
A great example is an inside bar that sits on a trend line. The preceding (larger bar) can disrespect the trendline for all I care. If the smaller bar (the inside bar itself) then sits neatly within the confines of the trendline again then I'd call that a great set up. Within reason of course. ....there goes that discretion thing again. lol
The less disrespect the better. ...Like all things in trading, nothing can beat taking only the best.
In terms of definition. If you can't define a clear trend line than it doesn't exist. At least for yourself. Find what works for you. You'll probably always improve over time in this area. I have. Still do.
Try drawing trendlines off of your line charts ('close price' charts) . That's when you get to see trendlines being not so perfect. Yet at the same time obviously powerful.
,Bundy
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I think it's best to wait for HL/HH after downtrend or LH/LL after an uptrend before you start to want to fight the trend unless there is a ton of confluence.
He's on to it. Same.
Won't get away with sloppy at the moment. It'll kill ya.
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Good post and yes I will run trend trades until this lets up, on -500 on the dow you HAVE to be getting short the EUR/USD and oil. Now when we go back to +50 - 50 down days or as I call it "SLOP" then I will CT a lot more due to not having a trend.
P.S. go with da flow
After reading that, you reminded me. I just checked the "over nights" on the local index here. ...wow. It's taking another big chunk.
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Just like to take a second here at 5:15 AM to thank you guys. Mike for the encouragement and mentor like guidance. Bundy, James and crew for the continual support and answering questions. .....and Sonic for cool looking charts. I just made the best trade of my life. R:R 1:62 Took the I4b on the daily, looked for micro entry, faded a pin with 15 pip risk and let it ride. I know these are extreme times but just wanted to share my best trade ever with you all. I have a rule to always go with the gap to S/R. I also have a rule to let the open work itself out before taking a trade. These rules are in conflict .... back to the research and testing.
Regards,
Jason
Nice! ....Very nice!
I seen that setup too, after it was too late. (Thankfully you learn not to chase entries after a while. lol)
Very happy that someone got in on it. Well done man.
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makes sense. this is where I might consider selling yen again....
Funny, when I look at indexes today and think of my banker, who laughed at my moves last year in august.
This is when I moved all my long term investments to mm and treasuries...
It's a good feeling knowing that you warned family and friends pretty much at the beginning too. Who says TA is baloney?
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When asked of Jim, Mike, Bundy and others where their stops were located? They all said "the top". And guess what? More often then not, I would be stopped out and they would not. Lesson learned.
I learnt through experience as well. Didn't take long either! lol
If you set stops based on fibs (of your set up), it will mostly only work on a lower time frame (with fine tune PA entry etc), which you then have to, in-turn, manage on that lower time frame really.
If you want to manage the trade as the original set up, it's certainly a lot smarter to select the stop point on that original time frame too.
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Hi everyone, I was considering at what point do you consider a trend line invalid? Do you have any hard and fast rule on this? I noticed Ghous let price swing way past and Mike considered that invalid. I'm coming up on page 300 of the thread but have yet to find a "J16" answer for trend lines.
Thanks!
Jason
Jason here's an example I was waiting for. IB sitting pretty good even though the preceding bar disrespects the trend line. (trend line drawn from close prices in this example)
This is my favourite way to play IBs lately. Never about guessing which way they'll break then. If it goes against me , it has to do more work to get there than it would going with my preferred direction.
Note how combining the two bars gives a very pin like setup too.
(I didn't trade this. Was just going through my charts, before calling it quits for a few hours )
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Pin off trend line with retrace entry. ...The Good way to play a trend reversal. Pre-empt the 1-2-3 set up.
Good to look at the charts and just SEE a set up like this pop out at you. lol
aSandman,
I don't exclusively use the Price close trend lines by the way. Thought I'd better clear that up. I try to keep both in mind. When more ideas agree, it's even better.
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You wait for such setups for a while, but when they come, you better be ready . Sometimes they only come once or twice every few months.
Practice and master them and you will never look below daily TF ever again. The Earth is too beautiful, life's too short to waste it in from of the computer...
Best,
R.
You been up again? I thought you winterized the glider?
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Trading against daily divergence, but also this PPZ could cause issues. Going to watch what happens with this first. Pin formed right back to this one...
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with forex i trade a large enough pip size that a half or one or two day move off of a great daily bar is more than enough to make a significant profit and i catch more than my share of great moves. risk reward also means nothing to me. why would it when im 95 percent sure or more that im gonna get some profit or at the very least plenty of time to get my stop to breakeven on the entries i take?
Jim on Risk Reward...
I've been on both sides of the fence now. Narrowing down to good R/R trades has helped a lot in the past, but I've found as I've gotten more proficient with choosing the correct bar based trades, and managing them correctly that I've been able to put that further into the background. Especially when you start to trade pullbacks of bars more successfully and choose those well also.
I guess what I'm saying is , I started using PA to improve what I already had learnt, but now I'm growing more and more into your type of trader. ...very smart. Sneeking it in! ...We're on to you now... ... You'll have many, many clones in the years to come for your evil plans. lol
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Yes. That PB has a lot of work to do to be convincing. I would like to see it break hard to down side would help convince me. If it does, consolidating boundries could be forming.
And yet it looks so dang pretty!
A retrace from the current level, though, re-inforces that PPZ. lol
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You're certainly on the right track saskgui. Keep steaming ahead and fine tuning that management. It gets to the point eventually where it's a downhill run.
And same first TP as I used.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saskgui
Your right Jarroo. But simple minded people myself can still mismanage these trades. An example is Eur/Jpy. I entered of the break of the daily PB yesterday and when i was up about 130 pips i moved my SL from the top of the pin bar to B/E. Of course soon after i was taken out only to be followed by a downward movement of about 400 pips. Since my motto is never let a positive trade turn negative i guess i could have re-entered on the retrace later....
Fortunately on G/U i kept a few pips. On my demo i entered on the break and price moved down quite steady so my manual trailing stop of 100 pips was fine. However on my under capitalized money account i was not able to put my SL at the bar high of the PB so i just entered a limit order on a 50 fib retrace of the pin and i was filled. Closed at 336 pips so it cushioned the blow of my other mistake.
As Jarroo mentioned these trades are about as easy as you can get. Makes me wonder why everyone is not doing it, I have only recently taken PA demoing seriously so i am still learning the basics of trade management.
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At first, one would assume that the orange line "A" would be the eye level. If this was at a high/low with space, yes it would be. But this is in traffic with the trend so I looked for another S/R level (orange line "B"). I played below that level (1.7550 RD) at 1.7535.
Edit: stoploss was placed above the PB.
Thanks Jim. Was curious.
I must have been along similar lines. Just looked at the records to find where I opened that one... 1.7533 lol
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Tonight I am looking at the U/C for a potential trade but need to wait and see how it turns out before I place any orders, here's why:
If you look at the charts you can see that the Monthly is turning former support into resistance (potentially). On the Daily there is a pin forming with good rejection of the recent high (06/10-English dates, not American!).
But, on the other hand this is also turning into a BUOB!
If you drill down to lower timeframes you will see the heavy selling at the recent high which was major support on the higher timeframe, this is why I am tended more to go with the pinbar viewpoint. Hopefully there will be some good selling over the next couple of hours to give me a nice pin, then i'll get loaded up.
First target for a short is 1.1250, then on for another hundred.
Long target is today's high followed by a stop to breakeven and see what happens.
I am biased to the short side, but thats just my opinion and i'm not too sure how much attention i should pay to it!
Any comments welcome....
Tehurunga is right.
I think you are guessing the direction correctly though. I'm guessing it will return to the trend line maybe.
Having ideas on where the market might go isn't the same as spotting a high probability set up though. If you want to make consistent profits you have to not take trades that are little better than 50/50. Gambling.
The pin really is in a sideways market there.
I've zoomed down through the time frames, and I can't even see a tradable situation.
It almost looks like there is a double bottom on the 15 minute chart (11:30gmt and 13:30gmt) that is now about to see a bounce off it's middle high. The top of your pin could very well be an attempt at a break out upwards that didn't have the momentum the past 24 hours to support it and may follow through later.
Bottom line. There will be better trades. Hold on to your money for a little longer.
Edit: Nothing interests me on the dailies that I watch here either. A few inside bars that might create something for us tomorrow. Cable looks like heading up, but where it is now I wouldn't add exposure. Not until past 1.7340-1.7390 zone anyway.
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While I am aware that the trend is down, I am looking at the Daily EURUSD PB from 10/10 and wondering if yesterday's action can be considered the Retrace for the 10/10 Pin?
Both have met firm support off the 3400 AND the 13 mth low at 3358.
Yesterday's PB is in too much traffic to be valid by itself, but if we were waiting for the RET to enter the 10/10 PB, is this valid, or is 4 days too much time? TIA
Well thought out. ...Mostly.
You've built up the thoughts that will support your decisions later on.
At the moment there's no set up that would tell you to enter either way though.
You don't have to wait that long for trades to materialise. So don't give in to those feelings of not wanting to miss out. ...Wait for a good signal. Even if that means next week. ....At the moment (current PA) it looks neutral and undecided.
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Thanks Bundy,
Still sitting and waiting.
Still the one question: If this had been with the trend and with better confirmation, would 4 days be too long to have considered it a retrace? Or do we just forget the earlier PB?
Thanks, M
One answer: It is a retrace, of course. ... Forget the earlier pin though. ...As far as an entry signal goes anyway.
It's not a retrace to enter on of the old pin. (Traffic above sucks for one. ) After a couple of days or so I'd rather see a new PA set up first.
The Oct 10th pin gives good support to the current lows. So that's a good thing to know. (By the way. It's not a pin on my brokers charts, but that doesn't matter for the following explanation)
If you draw your fib tool from the bottom of that pin to the high of the past week (As shown in my chart below. ) You can see we are at what can be a great retrace zone for getting in on a reversal. (The 76.4% to 61.8% zone)
I wouldn't enter for other reasons I'll explain in a second...
It's not a reason to get in on the previous pin. That ship has sailed. So NO would be one part of the answer.
If you had got a really good pin here right now though (higher than the previous pin AND right on that fib retrace zone I mentioned above ) then in some circumstances you'd now have a new and pretty strong signal to enter with, but that's only IF there had been more space around it. Which there isn't.
...The same goes for a nice clean Bullish Outside Bar or Double Low Higher Close etc, instead of a pin of course.
For the moment the daily bars are now traffic....
If there was a new pin as I explained above (or other bar signal) then any entry on the break of that pin (etc) would be charging head first into a resistance zone.
That doesn't give you as good a chance as you'd want. Those trades are bad.
It can be hard looking at the chart and wanting to "get in". When it get's like this though you have to wait it out. Or draw down your account balance gambling on the direction it'll take next. ...Or making puny profits and 'break even' trading. ....frustrating you and screwing with your confidence.
It's all about waiting! lol
Edit: Forgot to mention. The bars to the left of your Oct 10th bar are sideways, creating problems ever since.
.
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No going long on EURUSD for me. Break of the trendline won't give a comfortable pattern I like. Other pairs might give better trades, but most are in similar situation. Wanting to turn around , but having so much against them.
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WOW,
Thanks for your reply - muchmore in depth than I had hoped for - and very much appreciated. There is so much potential to make a profit here, but so many more ways we can lose it. So much to learn, so many mistakes I would rather not have to make if I could just learn from the experience of the masters of the trade here. So thanks again, M
That's the problem. Greed usually wins out when you (all of us) are trying to figure all this out. A lot of traders see the potential gain and gamble, without narrowing down to the highest probability trades.
Trade well M.
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A friend of mine joined James' group a couple of months ago, and he loves it. From what he's mentioned to me it sounds as though he's really benefiting from the experience, both on his immediate trading discipline, and his increasing knowledge of s + r etc.
However, one thing he's related to me causes me some concern.
Apparently, he's been told that he should utterly disregard all fundamental information. Now my own belief, and that of many others, revolves around the principle of \"Trade the technicals, but know the fundamentals\". As he has been told to 'forget' about fundamentals, he's subsequently got no interest in learning about the structure of the fx market, avoiding 'red flag' trades, stop-hunting sweeps, what s + r really is or any of the other 'basics'. This to me seems like trading with one eye closed, if you know what I mean.
I struggle to reconcile what, on the one hand, is obviously a very highly regarded mentor and teaching programme, with, on the other hand, an almost nonchalant approach to what the actual 'thing' is which we are all doing.
Any comments?
I think there's a mix up here between structure of the market, it's dynamics and technical trading versus trading by fundamentals and so on.
Your friend should learn about the why's of the market. It's good to know. If he's doing well without knowing, that's ok too I s'pose. My guess is you are misinterpreting what he means by fundamentals.
You don't need to know the (true) fundamental factors to make money. By fundamentals, we are talking about news, statistics speeches by heads of state and reserve banks etc, and keeping an eye on all that brain numbing information that 'roughly' drives the market. ...most here believe that most of that information is built into the price anyway. (...Including inside information. )
Mike or someone more qualified can speak about the current goals of the group, I doubt there'd be a senior member who'd tell you to ignore the basics of how forex works though. (or any market for that matter) . I think that's a misunderstanding.
Just to point out that, if you joined for one month, you'd be very happy. Believe me. If you have the time to spend on soaking in the information, that first payment is an absolute bargain. Ask your friend!
.
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u can disgard fundamentals purely cause price action is leading indicator for the fundamantals and its taken into account already.....the pound falling like it has i think can be seen as a bank intervention....banks buying there own currency when it weak to set a trend in motion
Everything is falling against the U.S. dollar for one very powerful reason. ......There is a shortage of U.S. dollars.
Normally strong technical levels were blown away by this, even up until recently.
Think about it. Who cares about the charts or what bernanke and co say when some entity just needs their cash. You just want your cash. Right now!. ...There has been a lot of that.
And don't take it for granted that things are going to turn around ' just because they should'.
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Paid service == private forum?? webminar and learning material ??
I am interested... I never have attend/purchase anything before regarding abt trading...
Sonic
Sounds like you aren't a believer Sonic.
I know from the outside it looks over valued sometimes. A lot of what is taught is freely available if you looked hard enough. ...and filtered out the crap.( the hard part)
Understand that a subscriber is also receiving powerful access to support. The idea of the payed service was to allow James and co to spend time and make it easier for them to justify that time spent on support and making videos etc.
The reason for James posting here less often these days isn't because he's spending quality time with his family and budds on a private island somewhere. I can't imagine the emails , phone calls etc he (and others) spend time on not to mention PMs and emails from non paying members. It must be phenomenal at times.
The group isn't about time released information. ALL material is available straight up. Save up and pay the sub once as a feeler, and be converted. Seriously.
Hopefully this has come off as just a rant and not a ravenous defense of the James16 Group. lol
You've got some good posts here Sonic by the way. Good to to have you here.
, Bundy
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
\"It?s kind of like voting for your party candidate only because they are with your party and everything coming out of their mouth is contrary to what you believe.\"
Off topic... ....but one of my 'pet' hates. So many people are blind followers of a party.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
Am I correct in assuming that you totally ignore interest rate announcements and NFP's then?
If so, how wide are your stops?
News announcements can cause a stop out, but they can create new PA signals too occasionally. So if you're trading daily charts, for example, you really don't need to take them into account. They leave their footprints on the charts for us to read.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
Eur/gbp is overall a small daily range choppy pair which usually means the areas of resistance will give some bounce....
.
.
...As always just my views from a conservative trader
Mike
I tend to be a little less conservative and even I can't stand to look at the E/G chart at the moment. lol
Totally agree, at the moment it's looking like a week to sit out.
.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
A pin bar on H4 TF for AUDNZD. Though in a consolidation zone and a support zone down the way. How tradable could this one be.
I could draw this a few different ways, but I can't see any trade prospects at this time Safive. If you are willing to wait, a better one will come along somewhere.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
hiya Betard,
Please be careful of the S/R at the 1.6000 area. That's a strong area IMHO and high odds for a bounce. Lines u with 618 from previous daily range. If your trade clears that like a knife threw hot butter....then you be laughing all the way to the bank
Best Wishes,
Jason
The market IS slow when we are ALL on to it. lol
Was going to point out the weekly trendline too.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
ur right..but from a price action perspective this is an A longterm trade in my books..if governments \\\"suceed\\\" and equities rally for a time before falling into the abyss the dollar should tank against the swissy at least..
thx for ur input bro!
i am open for more
Hi Aidan,
That pin is very short when you compare it to the price bars leading up to it. That's reason one to be weary.
Reason two , the price action is returning to the resistance line that was broken the past day or so. I've spoken recently about being mindful of these types of pins that are just retracements.
Check out your four hour chart.
When a chart looks like creating a new signal, but doesn't quite 'cut the mustard', so to speak, you can draw a trend line to watch for later on. In my chart I've gone to the 4 hour time frame and drawn the Magenta/Pink trend line.
For now I'm expecting this to break the weekly trend line (Yellow). ....I won't consider a short until I get a signal that brings us to the other side of that Magenta/Pink trend line.
If the chart was looking a little cleaner these past few bars you could have waited for a good continuation signal off of the blue line.
For now I'm not sure what I will be watching for, but good PA off the top of the yellow line would be handy. Another possibility on the Daily chart is today's bar forming part of an BUOB or Two Bar Low Higher Close that closes above the yellow line strongly. ...Anyway you can see clearly on the four hour why taking a short using that pin of yours would be suicidal. Watch for stronger Pins. And most importantly make sure you have that space around it for your trade to move into.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
I like Inside Bars that are smaller in range. Even though it may be a I4B or a I5B, I7B, I10B. I would like to see a smaller range. They tend to foresee a larger breakout. imo
....Yep, just ask Bundy.
They tend to be better when sitting at the extreme of the long bars leading into them too. ...like a flag pole. (Pennant)
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
I wouldn't go long yet. You're right about that resistance
...You want something to happen above the resistance line first before entering.
I'll edit this post and add a chart for you in a few minutes...
Edit: Chart added. ...Also the BUOB you mention is a possible early warning sign of an impending break. Good spotting. Personally, I like to see a close that's closer to it's high in this case, but it don't matter when you aren't trading till after a break anyway. More experienced traders might enter a limit buy to trigger at the top yellow line AFTER we have a decent break of 100 or more pips above it. Riskier though. You'd want the breaking bar to CLOSE way above the top line first before placing that order IMO. ...A nice tidy pullback pattern with space underneath it is handy.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
Last edited by bundyraider, Oct 23, 2008 2:02am
Reason: Added chart as mentioned.
I haven't read up the last x hundred posts yet, so I don't know if these will be dupes or not, but I felt these were some okay examples of some market mechanics, so I'm going to post a mixed bag of PA examples and \"predictable ideas\"...the latter really only to annoy those that think it isn't possible to think ahead in the FX market :P
Another EURCHF update, and the latest GBPCHF example:
Wow. Good to hear from ya man.
Was thinking about PMing you the past couple of days to see where you'd got lost.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
This progression is that \"yea, one really never knows what's coming\" progression. IMHO this is pretty much what Mike does, just including a bit more safety with retests and stuff.
Breakouts / TL combos, with textbook outcomes each time. This is a great example(despite it having a ton of delay and struggle on the way) of how these corrective moves sometimes progress, so I'm posting it:
(None of these are edited and were posted to my journal \"along the way\")
Excellent post dude.
Man...
...If I had to explain to someone step by step how I like to trade, you've just layed out my favourite methods of watching price progress. This is how I say "no" to many set-ups. ...I watch the charts step through these progressions. ...waiting for that last step that has the best chance of having a long run. The other stuff I do is like pushing s*** up hill compared to doing this. It's all about waiting. Doing this allows you to watch a trade go immediately into profit the majority of the time.
Awesome man.
Thanks for spending the time setting this up S.
I hope others here study it.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
From the look of it GJ should go below 130 quite a bit(dunno yet when, but eventually, currently we're moving in thousands like it was nothing) and USDJPY finally move towards those low 90s / 80 areas I posted aaaaaaaaaages ago.
Mate....
These charts are moving through just about ALL important levels like nothing.
I'm still blown away by the average daily ranges we are getting too.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
So, maybe a good idea to keep a link to that progression handy for whenever the next troll flame war pops up
Hehe.
I will do. lol
Tough , I think Twee and co get on top of the trolling pretty quick. Which is good. It's been good recently
Aud/Usd.... Besides being a little patriotic about it , naturally , truly I believe we have one of the strongest collections of fundamental reasons to be worth more.
I think the fact that the currency has stubbornly held up of late re-inforces that idea compared to many others it seems. (...change of goverment and policies recently might decrease the strength maybe)
...I endeavor to trade what I see though, of course. lol
.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
I'm waiting for it to hit the weekly trend line I've drawn here in yellow.
The current daily pin bar gives a strong case for not going long until we get a decent signal. (off of this line possibly).
That March high (not seen on line chart) really needs to be taken out. If I get a position on, this will be a good first take profit level it seems. Edit: Here I am looking for a long from the break. We might end going short later instead. lol
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__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
In case anyone is wondering why the futures aren't dropping anymore to keep up with the live indices. I was looking at them for the past hour going \"Huh?\".
I just saw this now.
Private ramble:
As if that helps. The tradeable value will STILL move on, it's just not visible..
I think some folks no longer have any grasp on the \"free market\" anymore, and ironically by imposing overregulation frenzy action now, are only exacerbating things even further. That, and ruining lives, markets and countries, but hey, details, right?
So much for the \"Greed is good\" principle.
We've got a whole bunch of communistic tools running countries at the moment too.
Look at Sarkozy. He's just opened his trap again too.
You are ABSOLUTELY right. They are making catastrophic decisions here. Idiots. Our government's been making negative comments all year and really don't seem to know what the heck they are doing.
I'm staying out of all markets for a while. I value my hard earned.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
We've got a whole bunch of communistic tools running countries at the moment too.
Look at Sarkozy. He's just opened his trap again too.
You are ABSOLUTELY right. They are making catastrophic decisions here. Idiots. Our government's been making negative comments all year and really don't seem to know what the heck they are doing.
I'm staying out of all markets for a while. I value my hard earned.
...We'll see. ...lol
I keep seeing points of interest and not getting what I want.
B__tard sharks!
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
There is a bullish pin bar on eurcad on H4 fxopen data feed but I am cautios. still watching. LOOk also at the bearish pin bear on eurgbp H4, see also GJ and EJ H4
Took part profit at 1.6270. (Just below daily R1. Closest target to Daily Pin's high)
....Finally.... I can go to bed. This... quickly became... ...lol
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
I got a hint from NaVin in the GBP/USD Forum to go here, if I really want to learn how to become successful in trading.
...
Welcome to the thread!
You've made a good decision by strolling over here for a look.
Many say learning to trade correctly and profitably takes the same dedication and patience as any other profession. So if you are willing to take this approach you'll have a good chance at success.
Whenever you have questions, go ahead and ask. There are many here willing to help out.
,Bundy
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
I can see a lot of signals on the daily TF but just wondering which to take. I am inclined to short EURGBP and long GBPCAD but the relative weakness of GBP and even EUR from last weekend news is of great concern to me. OTHER signals I see are BEOB for CADJPY and CADCHF and BUOB for USDCHF and USDCAD. Which way do we go
I'm in ultra-conservative mode now Safive. You won't see me taking any trades against this trend until we get Higher Highs - Higher Lows and vice versa.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
I visited the james16group-website already and watch the Guestvideos, etc.....I wonder whether it makes sense to sign up already??!! Or rather FIRST work through the thread and THEN sign up?
It truly is a lot of fun for me to do all this and what better can you do for a living and for your soul as doing something you truly enjoy?
So, yes, I want to take on the work and hopefully become a good/successful trader at some point
You may as well learn what you can here first and get all the basics down pat.
There are a lot of technical study techniques that are handy to know as a foundation before going in.
It's up to you though.
Quote:
Although I am only at the beginning of my journey I want to say Thank you all !!!
Because you have given me the feeling that this is doable...even for me! It just takes time ( I see it as learning a profession...if you?re done with school and take on learning a job, you also need AT LEAST 2 yrs, mostly 3...so why not taking 2 to 3 yrs for becoming a trader? )
your humble 4rexlady Patty
You're starting off with a better attitude than most new traders already Patty. Awesome.
.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
i personally never read this thread from top to bottom im a visual person and found signing up to j16 group worked fantastically cause the webinars actaully guide u step by step visually and also every1 in the group stick to same method so there huge support.
its one of those instants where for me picture paints a thousand words is proved...lol
it will cut the learning curve if u ask me...
Nice to see u taking this so seriously pat..good luck
Actually, you have a good point there. Video/Webinar tutorials are fantastic methods to learn from.
Patty, I do know you wouldn't be disappointed if you signed up for a taste.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
Jaroo, where would one draw the line in terms of TFs used. I.e. if you can see a PB on H8, but there is no solid PA on other TFs, wouldn't that be a bit of \\"PA hunting\\"?..
It's not about combining bars for the sake of finding a signal.
You want to know what the crowd is up to, what they are reacting to and whether it's significant and usable information that can give you an advantage.
Combining bars will become second nature to you over time. ...Heck, even an inside bar formation can sometimes be a two bar pin. And a really good one too!
.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
I still use the same rules of course. The current break of the pin is a little close to those swing highs , and kinda trafficky. ...For my personal liking.
If I was trading that one myself I'd be covering my a__ at those swing highs. Which again comes down to it just being too close. If you were confident of getting a good entry you'd be right.
What I DO really like is the way those bars come off of that Sep 9th high. A good little double bottom pattern eh. ...and a PPZ if you draw one around 194.00.
That double bottom pattern has 'played out' as far as the usual target rules go though . Bummer. lol
You don't think 209.00 area is worth watching too (PPZ) ?
Anyway, calling it a night. Grabbed my allocation for the day elsewhere and running with it. lol
,Bundy
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__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
But its also a long opportunity if it break up yea? Or no. Now that i think about it, its seems illogical to call it a Bearish outside bar if you can go long off it... Still reading the thread..
But thanks bundy, this stuff is really interesting.
Figured you'd only miss-read it mate. lol
That oct 22-24 consolidation area is that barrier at the moment. ...I'm thinking long is where it wants to go. A guess though. We'll have to wait for a good signal either way.
Edit: I meant to mention that going long at the break of that high would be a worry , since it has to work it's way up through a resistance area. You'd want a pretty good signal.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
There's a nice PB on the Silver 3h (for Oanda users) & 4h chart.
The red line - 200 EMA, the other line - 200 SMA.
The PB looks like a rejection in that area. With MACD also positive on these time frames, I'd say it's a nice setup worth at least 40 - 50 cents (also taking into consideration how choppy silver is, after this break higher it could use the retracement).
Not exactly the tidiest of patterns on the lower time frames here. If it retraces this formation well, I might be more inclined to do something. If I'm around.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
Thanks Mike and Jim. Round numbers are not something I've paid attention to before, but I will now - another thing to look for when finding reasons not to enter a trade, or where not to position yourself! So what is it about round numbers that makes them significant - its just another number after all!
It's a psychological thing for us sheep.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
Yes it does. Trying to decide on a good entry point.
Same here. It's looking almost like a Head and Shoulder pattern down lower too. I'm heavily waited toward playing a break of the low myself. Haven't set an order yet though.
If I was a central bank I'd be getting ready to intervene again.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
Actually for me these are all far from cherries, and most are in too much traffic for my liking. Location is just not prime on any of these for me. So no trading here
Trade safe all
Mike
I regretted posting that soon after. The closer you look the more you see the previous support/resistance areas.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
hehe, well it isn't to say they won't give pips. Eur/usd is off some previous support, and it is a large pin. But the way I trade, it is still in to much congestion for me. So being that it doesn't rate very high on my scale I will stay out. But for some this may be their ideal setup. Really comes down to style. My way is just my interpretation of what James has so graciously taught me.
Take care bundy
Mike
You've got a lot more patience than I have. lol
The trades you wait for are the ones I manage differently. The ones I manage very similar to you. Makes sense.
For example, I'll take the E/U pin now. BUT cover myself early, because of the way it's positioned on the daily chart.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
LOL.... This is contradictory, but I'm seeing long set ups all the time today when I check back. One of my favourite set ups popped up earlier, so I've closed out my short. ....I'm happy , but would be nice to have a keeper for once. ...oh well.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
Thanks for your prompt answers Mike, Ghous and ezz
The the Low of the PB was 1.2805
The Current Price is 1.2795 (The price, you all were suggesting an entry)
But actually, What want to know is the timing? whether we have to enter now or wait for the next bar on the Daily TF (that is on Mon.)
ALM
Immediate Alm. (Have a bit of a buffer though)
It takes experience to know what buffers to use (How far past a break to actually enter.) . You'll get a handle on that over time (...I'm still improving myself. lol), but you can place an order at that trigger level and walk away. Don't have to wait till it closes.
There are instances where you may want the following bar to close and be complimentary a low quality signal, but the general answer to your question is 'immediately'.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
on the charts above the steepness seems to be overdone and exagerrated due to the reshaping of the image, the trendlines are'nt exactly as steep as they appear in my post above.
But anyways i get the point thanks Dude, this was something new to me, i can see what you mean
just for reference here is the Gu chart (as is):
Regards,
Ghous.
A better way to check for steepness is to use your fib tool.
If any corresponding pull-back can line up up with fibs in good confluence it has a better chance of working out. If confirming PA comes about in that exact same spot to signal an entry you're looking pretty good.
You'll have to practice this to understand how well everything has to line up. Like every thing you want the best circumstance. You can filter out a lot of "lazy" breakouts doing this.
edit: What you'll find is a lot of steep trend lines (and many that are too flat) have little chance of lining up well with an appropriate fib area. More often than not, it's these that don't snap into profit quickly and continue on. ....What I like to see happen. They are more of a gamble trade. Lower probability.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
here is an even better current example, the Gu chart
You're a genius Bundy
No, no. Hang on. I think you've miss-understood. lol
I meant the pullback and the fib. AFTER the break out. I will have to do an example. I'll definitely do one later. It's hard to explain without some examples.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
This pogression is that \"yea, one really never knows what's coming\" progression. IMHO this is pretty much what Mike does, just including a bit more safety with retests and stuff.
Breakouts / TL combos, with textbook outcomes each time. This is a great example(despite it having a ton of delay and struggle on the way) of how these corrective moves sometimes progress, so I'm posting it:
(None of these are edited and were posted to my journal \"along the way\")
...Check out this post (click it) by SL while you're at it, Ghous.
__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "