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  #14998  
Old Nov 5, 2008 7:43am
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Can I be on the thousandth page too?

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  #15037  
Old Nov 5, 2008 6:19pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
well i started to say a lot and then noticed something about your set up. before i say does anyone else see what i see?

jim
I think I know what you see. Personally I'd have been looking around the time frames anyway where it would be a little more obvious.
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  #15040  
Old Nov 5, 2008 6:52pm
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Originally Posted by the_wizard View Post
Hey Jim,

I took the hourly pin at the double top too although for some reason I only got a scratch out of it...can't remember what mistake I made now...probably getting my stop to BE too quick....got a nice trade off though when it came back into the resistance, broke out the hourly flag and then failed, forming an inside bar...that was a nice trade...I love these Bunds...no one trades them at my firm anymore. The last guy who was in them for a couple of years left for the Eurostoxx saying that the price action was unreadable in the Bunds...guess they spend too long looking at the size on the bids and offers and not on the bars themselves lol
I've never looked at the Bund before. I think I'm in love. lol
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  #15044  
Old Nov 5, 2008 8:10pm
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
its not a pin bar wiz. see why?

jim
I was thinking of it in context with the preceding bar , but would have called it a pin still if someone asked. lol

Not sure if I'd have entered it or not.( Hind sight.) Pretty sure I wouldn't. I'm too picky. The close is getting towards the centre and I don't like how it's sitting on the preceding bar's close. (which comprises an inside bar formation on the 30 min)

I do know that I would have made money on it still if I did.
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  #15045  
Old Nov 5, 2008 8:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
It's a BEOB. Is that what you see?
You looking at the same chart?

Close would have to be below the real body of the candle.
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  #15049  
Old Nov 5, 2008 10:17pm
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Originally Posted by the_wizard View Post
Having said that, I was particularly concerned not with the candle itself but WHERE it appears, which is after all, one of the most important parts of the strategy I believe.
Definitely

Couldn't remember whether the previous low being taken out was bad or not.
I always look at the underlying time frames to judge my bar set-ups anyway. Helps my decision on how to trade them for that instance.
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  #15117  
Old Nov 7, 2008 5:20pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Ryan you are busted man, Katy Perry? HoT n Cold huh.

No more phone calls from me
LOL.

Good thing he closed the www.hornymidgets.com browser before the capture.

edit: Oh man... I thought I'd test it, just in case. It actually exists. lol
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  #15154  
Old Nov 10, 2008 2:51am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
A better look. Doesn't hurt that the PB is point toward the gap.
Hi Jim, You can actually zoom out and find the trendline it is bouncing off there too.

Using the close price chart of course.

I'm skipping it though.
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  #15157  
Old Nov 10, 2008 3:27am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I'm already in it.
Yeah 4 hour. You can do the same with the daily close chart and that intersects at the same point. lol

Sorry, I didn't mean to make that sound like I'm belittling the set up. Example of my pickiness some times. lol

I'm thinking along the lines of a break to your upper channel line and some kind of direction decision after that. People just don't seem to like near misses of established patterns. ...I don't know. You've probably got an idea by now of how much I like everything like this to agree. This is just one of those examples.
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  #15159  
Old Nov 10, 2008 3:39am
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Hey. While we're here, check out this inside pattern that's forming...


I've been watching these closely all year. If we now break the high of the previous bar we're going at least the same distance as you can measure from the bottom of the reversal to the top of the inside bar. ( in this case as an example the min target is 88 pips above the inside break). Most often goes a LOT further though. lol

I've also marked a previous example.

The inside bar had a false break the other way and retraced to 61.8 or 76 area. (fib drawn from the low of the previous bar to the high of the IB). And then broke into a reversal.

Happens a lot on the smaller time frames as trendline bounces.
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Last edited by bundyraider, Nov 10, 2008 3:42am Reason: Why we're here. lol While. Not Why. That's some funy sh!t.lol
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  #15161  
Old Nov 10, 2008 3:45am
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
Personally I wasn't comfortable trading any of the gaps that were around on opening today...seemed a little risky looking through the timeframes. Sometimes you can tell if a gap is going to close quickly and I didn't get any of those signals this morning so I sat out.....plenty of time and I don't feel the need to be in the market straight away...better to sit back and take high probablity trades when they come up.
Same here tehuringa. It's kind of messy at the moment.

Maybe later in the week. Just when you think there won't be any set ups they can come out of nowhere.
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  #15162  
Old Nov 10, 2008 3:53am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Hey. While we're here, check out this inside pattern that's forming...
Usual rules of course. Watch first Take profit zones etc just in case. Good positions only etc etc.

Also hadn't drawn in previous TL break. Tend to not draw the obvious ones I can see easily. Lazy. :P
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  #15163  
Old Nov 10, 2008 5:07am
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100% Projection hit.... then reversal.

...so far.

The need to hit this projection often seems to overide any support/resistance. Even if the eventual direction is back the other way. (short break of IB pattern again for the pair to head south in this case)

So using this case as an example you can get a total disrepect of the 156.20 level on the way up, looking like a strong up move. Only to see the projection being satisfied and then a reversal and continuation downwards.

That's only an example of a projection only move. ....So many many times this signal (this case is long) can be the start of a very large move. The IB pattern becoming the very pin head of a daily pin etc. Awesome stuff.

Just to emphasize: You have to use the same "confluence" / "A+ trade only" / "bloody hell I have to wait again" etc attitude that all your trading should have.

"Where" is ALWAYS important.

Chart drawn on another PC , so not original studies....
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  #15249  
Old Nov 12, 2008 2:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
Says Mr 2000 tick
Yeah, but not currencies and on an instrument Jim knows backwards. lol


I'm liking some of these set ups that have popped up. Glad I woke early to enter some stop orders.
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  #15250  
Old Nov 12, 2008 2:40pm
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U/J Pin looks good. Definitely would wait for the break of the high though with the current close sitting below all that fib. confluence.

20 Mins till close.
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  #15263  
Old Nov 12, 2008 5:55pm
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Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
i see here in FF experienced trades using the expansion tool without ajusting the retrecement point. I think the correct is put the third point at the bottom of the retrecement, no? See the pic, yellow is ajusted and blue i choose only the bottom and the top.

opinions?

and Bundy, you are only waiting the breakout of a 123 and using the 100 as the target? Or using the 100% to enter (in this example in my pic to go short against the trend)?
You're correct. The expansion is designed to be used with you moving the third point to the bottom of the retracement. I too see a lot of people not doing this. lol

In this case I was just using it to get the "equal move" target. That's why I moved the point in line with the entry.

That post was aimed at experienced people who were shying away from inside bar trades, but what you said first is correct. Breakout of the 1-2-3 so to speak with highest probability target being the %100 , yes.

Really study that set up first and practice. There's a certain amount of discretion involved.
.
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  #15276  
Old Nov 13, 2008 5:48am
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Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
Hello JIM!

The chart looks really nice with 2000 Tick Bar. Can the MT4 support this? I would also like some explanations on the difference between J16 pivot zone and Floor trader's pivot (iss'it the normal PPZ?). Thanks for all the support.

ALM
Hi ALM,

MT4 doesn't support tick charts unfortunately. Would be nice if the new version adds the ability though.

I have access through other sources myself. They are nice to play with. Some days different tick count charts offer great trades too.
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  #15297  
Old Nov 13, 2008 2:47pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
U/J Pin looks good. Definitely would wait for the break of the high though with the current close sitting below all that fib. confluence.

20 Mins till close.
For anyone watching this one. A good place to take profit and set rest to break even. (Mine was set 96.80. ...Next blue zone upwards on my original chart. Conf. with fib.)

I notice Rac gave an alternative entry signal too. Shows how universal the information can be over different timezones etc.
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  #15298  
Old Nov 13, 2008 2:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
dow.

.
Yeah. Watching the DBLHC on the SP 2 hr. More affordable to me. lol

I suppose you faded that?
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  #15305  
Old Nov 13, 2008 5:26pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
.. yes, when dow hit that 3B (around 7990), I bought all three: dj, e/u and g/u...., been waiting for the last 3 days for this . Set up tps for half and will see what happens with the rest.
R.
Took half prof at same area. Lined up with trendline alert. lol

Trade payed for . Can't beat it.

Chance I'll be taken out by a retrace on mine now at BE.
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  #15320  
Old Nov 14, 2008 4:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
It looks to be a classic Pin Bar reversal.

But as you know if you ever played Texas Holdem, holding a pair of Aces doesn't always win.
I like that one.
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  #15329  
Old Nov 14, 2008 6:02am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
I am trying to experiment other ways of entering into a pin bar trade, ofcaorse amongst the differnet methods Jim uses.

Only yesterday i was watching a Eur/chf pin bar with ppz confluence, I saw retracment inside the pin bar (61.8 fib ret at just abt 1.45) and concluded that the area of 1.45 (the short magenta line segment on the chart) should be a key area to look for a trade fine tuned through a lower tf based PA. another reason i gave was that the left eye of the pin had a high at almost 1.45. I was watching it all the time and the setup failed,...
Ghous mate, your focusing way too tight. Zoom out!
That pin is a bad choice.

My first guess is your trying to tighten up your entries to compensate for your account size. ...Makes it very hard to make correct judgements. Been there, done that!

And playing Pin bar retraces. It's got to be an awesome set up first. They are rare!
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  #15334  
Old Nov 14, 2008 6:36am
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Originally Posted by kptMisiu View Post
Hey Ghous,
I think, 61,8 is to much for a PB. For me, your eurchf example was not a PB, it was more a neutral bar. As for a PB you want to see the open and close in about the 1/3 of the bar what would mean the retracement in about 38.2-50.0, not 61.8.
Some time ago I was trying to look for retracements, too. I gave up and let a PB be a PB and trade the break of it. In my opinion, the more reliable setup for the retracement is the outside bar.
Keep your thoughts coming, Ghous. Have a nice one.
kpt
I agree. And DBLHC & DBHLC bars.

Pin bars can be played at a retrace. Usually to the eye level. You certainly need to have a good feel for which ones though. And if you can't be profitable trading the break then there's no point moving on to retraces at all.
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  #15362  
Old Nov 14, 2008 3:10pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I hate scalping, but may have no choice for some time....

Closed e/u and g/u last night at 18:43PM EST. Reason: past experience
Market is still wild and I was anticipating a pullback in asia after US sesion excitement.
Reopened following trades on pullback at 9:30AM EST:
g/j 142.255
g/chf 1.7553
e/u 1.2670
g/u 1.4757
Nice! Picked up some more SP here. Would have been nice to get more gold too. :P

edit: Don't know what happened to my E/J order though.
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  #15363  
Old Nov 14, 2008 3:21pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
edit: Don't know what happened to my E/J order though.
Bundy you frikken idiot!!

13 pip profit. :P

2 positions . One was supposed to have TP at 129.85 the other left open ended. I set both to 121.85!!!!

Thirteen bloody pips after the limit buy!!!

Good one Bundy... ...Now go back to bed.
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  #15370  
Old Nov 15, 2008 12:08am
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Originally Posted by Ash View Post
That's ok. At least you got some profit. I've had times were I hit the wrong button and was in a loss for some big money.
I think we all have.

Been a while since I lost big because of "the nut behind the wheel" thankfully. lol
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  #15442  
Old Nov 18, 2008 8:11am
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lol

We're a tough bunch to get along with eh?
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  #15488  
Old Nov 19, 2008 4:39am
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Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
I know some of you got those triangle/flag patterns on your radar. How you gonna play them , will you play breakout or wait for the retest which dont have to happen if momentum gains. I've got Eur/usd , Eur/jpy and Usd index on my radar. As for me i am ready for shorts and longs but would favour a stronger correction move.
I'll do the re-test.

If momentum get's carried away it doesn't matter. There's often second chances. That's my view here.
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  #15681  
Old Nov 24, 2008 3:20pm
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Hi all,

I am a little stumped on inside bars. I will leave these for now as they seem harder to read than the other PA setups, but for future reference...
what did i do wrong?

I went short when bar no.3 broke below the inside bar no.2. I had my stop above bar no.1 It then immediately moved up and through my stop.

Was the setup just in the wrong place? and this is how i should have played this? Or should my entry point have been below the low of bar no.1


thanks

Simon
IBs are, in my opinion, the most discretionary of the bar patterns that are discussed here.

I'd study them over time to get a feel for them if I was you. ...and I was you. Most of us have been. (especially on IBs. lol)

Your post explains the typical reactions to IBs that a lot of us have had.

We've just about all gotten into the " have a stop-entry on both sides of the IB" mode of thinking.
ALSO, don't get into the "Ever widening stop"/ "should I have placed the stop even further away again" scenario!

The best place to start with IBs...

...At swing highs/lows that are hitting a trendline AND are in confluence with a couple of fib lines. In other words, IBs as reversals first. This way you have ONE trade idea only. One that you KNOW would be dumb to trade the other way. You're not chasing both directions and getting disheartened. ...Over time, get an idea about the "look" of the ones that are easiest to trade.
For the stop positioning on these reversal IBs you can then set it above the swing high price (or swing low) and not use the IB itself.

The IB you chose was a hard one. Personally, I don't like ones amongst sideways traffic like that at all. ...Unless they too are at Swing highs or lows and winding up.

I also personally do what Rac said.... ...Study the lower time frame charts to get an idea of PPZs etc. Especially good for placing my stops. Try not to watch on the that lower time frame though. Can screw with your head! lol
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  #15685  
Old Nov 24, 2008 3:31pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I missed some good Price Action today.

Although the location of these Bullish and Bearish Outside Bars are not the best (Swing Highs and Swing Lows are better locations) they did prove to be successful.

Eur/Usd BUOB and Usd/Chf BEOB. (4 hour)

Nice Profit target panos.
Didn't mind the positioning of the BUOB on EurUsd. ....Pullback off the trendline of the wind up we've been having. I actually entered not long after the close without looking for a better entry. Just knew it had a high chance of taking off like a rocket this time. lol
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  #15686  
Old Nov 24, 2008 3:36pm
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Bundy , you bet me to it.
Come on Jim, you had plenty of time too.
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  #15731  
Old Nov 25, 2008 2:32am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Half Life 2 Rules.
And World of Warcraft sux. lol
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  #15842  
Old Nov 27, 2008 7:51pm
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I4Bs on a few dailys.
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  #15844  
Old Nov 27, 2008 8:18pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Yo bundy. Have you used this "Identifier" before? I use it all the time.

I know it goes in the indicator file and eveyone calls it an indicator, but it doesn't indicate direction. It idenifies I4Bs.

I don't use the Pin Bar values.
I tend to write my own. They only take a couple of minutes most of them and I can fiddle with them further to filter better. lol

At the moment I'm only watching daily and 4 hour charts for "Wake up calls". ...Reading them mostly naked. (the charts. lol)
If I then see an indication of a setup coming up I will check back every hour etc. That's what I feel like doing at the moment, so I do it.

I found in the past that using identifier type programs showed me too much and I'd get bored with all the signals and lose interest. lol

I4bs are probably the only one that wouldn't give too many signals.
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  #15969  
Old Dec 1, 2008 5:28pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
If you throw enough stuff on a forum some of it has to be right to quote right? The real question is if you are so good at trading why work 2 jobs?
Ryan after defending you in the past when you were on the receiving end of this crap yourself you're disappointing me big time here. Those that live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. You've posted plenty of post outcome charts that could also be used as ammunition. So don't waste your time.
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  #15986  
Old Dec 1, 2008 10:55pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Multiple streams of income cant be bad, can it???
Exactly. And the smart way to do it. Even having a side business for the tax benefits etc.

Not to mention something of interest to do other than sitting in front of a screen. lol
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  #16000  
Old Dec 2, 2008 7:50am
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
not sure if this counts as a BUOB...
but could be IB4
off S/R and 78.6fib and previous trendline

maybe looking to go long above 12678
but then there is another PPZ area around 12700

the more i think about it, the less inclined i am to take this... but will post it anyway in case other have a view on it
If someone wanted to call that a BUOB that's there choice, but I don't even consider a trade on a poor one like that. In my book that bar's barely bullish of neutral. lol

What I can do sometimes , if I'm convinced everything else supports it...

Next bar close after that one... ...With that sideways action (bar to bar), looking for a really good BUOB (Close in top 1/4 to 5th of bar) and with a convincing push above your suggested 12700 ( ) is the way to go. Ditto for a DBLHC. It's nice to see an above average push higher, and then after a convincing close, buy on retracement. In fact I wouldn't take a trade unless it's a good long bar that dwarves the previous ones immediate to it. And would forget the trade if a retrace didn't get me in.

Not forgetting the "quick obvious profit point"/"Let rest run" thing too, of course.
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  #16003  
Old Dec 2, 2008 8:26am
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
cheers Bundy
have taken some less than perfect setups in the last two days, which have counter-acted the good ones
You're getting there.
You HAVE to work on being satisfied with holding back from trading when things aren't perfect. We've all been there. Hard habits to unlearn.

Don't be surprised if you're still having a problem with that a long long way down the track. lol
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  #16046  
Old Dec 2, 2008 5:02pm
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Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
I would say that location is actually the most important thing.
Locashen , Locashen , Locashen.

And good to hear from you again Mr T.

...To all newcomers in here, A poster to listen too.
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  #16065  
Old Dec 3, 2008 4:11am
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
edit - sorry i know this doesn't exactly constitute PA - my bad
Don't stop man. It's all price based trading.
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  #16089  
Old Dec 3, 2008 7:07pm
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Originally Posted by giraia_br View Post
that was the answer i didn't want to rear but was what i was guessing

so, the trader that don't lives in London needs to be a Zombie
So?? ....I sleep during NY session. How's that?

It only sucks if you're wanting to catch EVERY market move. And you don't need to. (Or want to)

Living in Oz here it can be a pain , but there's nothing wrong with checking 4 hour charts.
I miss one bar in the middle of NY and don't bother with the next one. ( Which is often the top or bottom for the day and hits a take profit point while I'm asleep anyway!). Occasionally I don't get to see the 4 hour bar that closes @ NY open either. I still catch enough set ups to make a profit.

Watching daily and 4 hour charts sometimes leads into a decision to "stay up late" to wait for a good entry on a lower time frame during NY sesh. No biggy.

To sum it up, I check my charts 4 times a day...

Daily Close (GMT 0000)
4 hours Later (GMT 0400) ...nothing exciting most days. Can give clues for later on.
4 hours Later (GMT 0800)
NY Open (GMT 1200)

If at those times we are sitting near a PPZ or such I might look at lower time frames then too.

This week I've had to sit near my computer 3 times to enter trades on smaller time frames (and this is OPTIONAL anyway! Just improves profits a a little)
Our bodies can handle a little bit of interrupted sleep. Why would you need to be a zombie?
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Old Dec 4, 2008 7:00am
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Originally Posted by aeu97137 View Post
i'm fairly new to this price action thread and was wondering if people took either of these pin bar trades?

They look like decent pins to me but as you can see, they have not yet moved in the expected direction.

Have I missed something or are these just failed trades?

Jason
Hi Jason,

They don't fail until they break the nose. You haven't given them enough time.

edit: I know this is in hindsight , but I wouldn't have taken these trades. I'm too picky. The EJ one ....possibly. The EU ..not. (There's been pips in them both already though). Played right you'd have made money already. They could keep going yet. I'd rather a clearer run. Or at least more room toward my first TP. Yesterdays lows sucked as barriers.
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  #16131  
Old Dec 4, 2008 6:23pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Not trying to put words into Mr Jaroos mouth,

Posted this in the PF , double bottom area, 1.2550 round number, heavy div and oversold , good space and swing low


Mike
I must be the only guy here that couldn't make a decision on that EU pin. lol

I have to say I'm still happy I didn't take it, regardless. I look at it now and still see the same reasons I didn't want to do anything. Can't always be in the right frame of mind, I guess.
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Old Dec 4, 2008 6:56pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
Well, I've closed all my positions today few minutes after mr. b had spoken. Pretty much all of them hit good resistance imo.
Regarding tomorrow's nfp, I hope we get some retraces on today's daily pins.
It might sound like crystal balling, but the last thing US of A needs right now is a strong $$$....


Too right. Was in a conversation last night about needing bits and pieces that we usually get direct from the U.S. No one is prepared to buy anything at the current exchange rate at all. It's a big big turn off. Using the AUD/USD as an example, it's got to get above .7500 at least to get people more willing to buy from you.

That NFP number is going to get a lot worse. ( ...well duhh! )
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Old Dec 4, 2008 8:08pm
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Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
Hey bundy,

rest assured you were not the only guy - I didn?t take it either. And looking back I still wouldn?t take it. Location was fine but I didn?t like how it all set up, and divergence also wasn?t too convincing IMO as it didn?t clearly set up with the swing lows...Anyway, no regret. There will be more of them (and more obvious ones, at least for me).

RM
Hi RM.

Glad someone had the same thoughts at least.

It wouldn't normally bother me! When it came to telling Jason why I wasn't actually taking the trade, I couldn't give an answer. If I wasn't trying to look for an answer it'd be one of those set ups where I just go "meh... whatever. Doesn't look right" and move on. lol

Certainly a discretion and "seat time" thing I would think. Look at the time of my 'edit' . I had a few goes at looking at the chart trying to qualify my decision. Shows how that "Have to be right" mind boiler can creep in and fight against you. lol
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  #16138  
Old Dec 4, 2008 8:10pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Let's see . . at 500 dollar a pip that would be . . . .

Some day . . . .
lol

hmmmm...
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  #16140  
Old Dec 4, 2008 8:59pm
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That bearish outside bar on swissy has me interested today. Going to be checking back every hour if I remember.
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  #16168  
Old Dec 5, 2008 2:02am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
A very painful lesson learned!

I have been into some good tarding recently with quite a good control over my emotions, the bubble got burst this time!!!
Ghous it's been pretty evident how much your improving lately.

You've come up with some good trade ideas. (Some errors occasionally). Starting to get it fella.

Don't stress about making the same mistakes over and over. You have to give these habits some credit. They're bloody hard to break!

Keep up the good work dude.
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Old Dec 5, 2008 5:47pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
yum yum
Couldn't have said it better! Lovin' the loonie bin.

(yeah, yeah. ...I know I typed 'bin'. lol)
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Old Dec 6, 2008 1:15am
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Originally Posted by tokwanden View Post
Hi guys/guls, here is the chart as promised. This is the 1st time I post the chart. Ghous are correct ! it's not that difficult. I have to try harder extraordinary (Bundys pills).

Most of the entry base atn S/R, PPZ atrea which raczekfx emphasize. Oh! man, my heart beat faster extraordinary. This is the 1st time I hold the position longer and over the weekend. So many setup pop-up and I just cant resist.
Good entries man. Great entries.
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  #16323  
Old Dec 8, 2008 2:15am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Target hit and then some.
Same with looney. .....KACHING!!!
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  #16518  
Old Dec 9, 2008 12:00pm
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Originally Posted by panos69 View Post
...but not valid if it doesnt break to the upside lol
Worked out alright. ...beginning of the new surge.
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Old Dec 9, 2008 6:24pm
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Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
interesting pinbar on the EUR/CHF Daily, bouncing off the 150 EMA and 38.2 Fib lots of S/R areas that leave some doubt in my mind, but it should break and give an opportunity for some pips.
I don't want to knock you here. To me it's just one of those trades that aren't worth taking.

I think your right, but really, ignoring "should get a few pips" trades can make a big difference to your end result. Try it for a couple of months.

Would be better if the top of that pin was up against that fib confluence rather than where it is.
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Old Dec 9, 2008 9:19pm
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Originally Posted by Icehocey77 View Post
yeah, you're right....still working on limiting myself to A trades, it's definitely not one of those. But while I'm on the subject, what's the deal with EMAs vs. Simple MAs, before being corrected I was using simple MAs with some success, but the general consensus that EMAs are better for PA? Is it because EMAs are more likely to appear intersecting with price that it is better?
EMA or SMA is irrelevant. Just choose them based on how popular they are.
Which one has the most people watching it?

Try 365 EMA , 150 EMA if you want. Popular ones in this thread. I also put in a 200 EMA. Different people like different ones.

It's like anything though. Don't take any particular MA as gospel and also don't clutter your charts with too many of them. Use them to get a feel for the rhythm of the market if you like. If a good long term MA coincides with horizontal resistance/support, then take notice.

Horizontal support/resistance rules it all anyway. Spend more time on seeing 'that' better first and foremost.
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Old Dec 9, 2008 9:21pm
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Originally Posted by jlmac27 View Post
Hello Bundy,
I have a quick question for you.Do you think there is a big difference between that PB's nose hitting that fib level and retreating or if it decides to just close around this fib level.I guess I could see some difference in it.......How do you percieve it?
Easy question.

Which one shows more solid respect of the level and creates a better stop barrier for you to use??
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Old Dec 9, 2008 9:27pm
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
I agree Bundy.....there is some nice confluence there but the pin bar itself is fairly weak.....short nose, the size of the bar doesn't really hold much weight compared to the surrounding bars and it doesn't have much 'headroom' and could run into resistance around the 1.5530-1.5500 area.
Spot on my thoughts. lol

Nothing that shouts at you to ignore the bad placement anyway.

There's just too many setups that are way better around the corner all the time. ...You learn this aspect over time though.
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Old Dec 10, 2008 6:10pm
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Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
Well I agree with you. I felt the same way all the way up to today... and we definitely have an ugly formed double bottom after a long down move on the EURUSD... but... something just doesn't feel right in how the markets are moving. Ya know you kinda get a feel after awhile.... don't know. I think anything is possible at this point. I'm just not willing to accept the risk anymore so I dumped it. Took my 200 pips and ran.
I'm not comfortable either. I let both trades I had on stop out and left it that way. Like you said, it's like people just HAVE to go the dollar still somewhere.
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Old Dec 10, 2008 6:15pm
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COT shows the big boys heading long and everyone else heading further short. Typical. lol
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  #16672  
Old Dec 11, 2008 2:26am
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My Technical chart trading started with double bottoms and head shoulders and related patterns on shares 9 years ago. They are just too reliable to ever disregard. Even their associated targets. Convinced me over the nay-sayers advice.

(Have the Bulkowski chart patterns encyclopedia here somewhere too. )

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
You can really see the double bottom on the 4H chart. Beautiful and classic pattern. I love these and head and shoulders.

What I love about double bottoms is there is a 3% failure rate if we close above the apex. Then, price throwsback around 68% of the time (according to Bulkowski)... so that's why I was saying earlier to look for a bounce off of 1.33 back down to that support area... and then continuation up...

If you do the price projection on that DB, it is 1000 pips from the top of the apex, which is 1.6530... well guess what that is? 50%...
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  #16673  
Old Dec 11, 2008 2:36am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Are these the double bottoms your talking about on the Daily (blue) and 4 hour(white) charts, respectively?
As below dude....

EDIT: Damn MT4 is annoying when it changes the chart position when saving. :-P

Doesn't always stop at the middle peak on the pullback. Can return to 61% etc too. So you really need to watch your bar formations.

I add the distance from bottom to middle peak onto the break out point to get my target. I think that's the understood way too. You can reliably play the pure break and ride till the 100% target if you like.
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  #16674  
Old Dec 11, 2008 2:44am
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Edited that above post quite a few times. lol
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Old Dec 11, 2008 2:53am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Oh . .Ok. Mr. T didn't make as clear as you have Bundy. Thanks.
So, Double bottoms can be off by a few pips. Not like a TBH or TBL.


(Use the "Text" not the "Text Label")
For sure. The usual PPZ style buffer/looseness(lol) caper in fact.

They are strong trend reversal patterns on decent timeframes (actually all time frames, if kept in context)
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Old Dec 11, 2008 2:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post


(Use the "Text" not the "Text Label")
Ok, thanks bud.
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  #16680  
Old Dec 11, 2008 3:11am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Oh . . OK. Now I see how DB relates to the Head and Shoulder pattern .

Thanks Bundy your good, man.
Yeah they are both just ways of filtering a good 1-2-3 pattern down to a better trade. With targets. Love the projections these patterns give.

I'm not that good. I have my favourites. MR T is one that has the most experience with all these chart patterns and how to play them.

Track down a copy of the bulkowski chart pattern encylopedia too and check it out.
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  #16683  
Old Dec 11, 2008 3:32am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
In the same vein of Steve Nison price projections.
Nison has projections? Wow. Didn't know that.

For candel patterns? Or other complimentary techniques of his?
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  #16685  
Old Dec 11, 2008 3:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Its been awhile but consolidation to consolidation, stuff like that.
Ok , pretty much the old school pattern projection techniques.

Trendy could probably real them off the top of his head.
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Old Dec 11, 2008 4:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Red line is the double Bottom of a inverted HnS.
Ok. No not the same as a double bottom. Double bottom infers a double touch of the absolute low. The same way as tripple tops etc that we play.

An inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern is a single touch of the bottom with an immediate change of trend ....confirmed by the break of the right shoulder line.

You could get a head and shoulder pattern with a double bottom in it. BUT there would be two heads.

If you want to find the equivilent pattern in bars. A Pin bar would be a head and shoulder pattern. With the two eyes defining the shoulders and the break of the pin being the neckline.

Double Bottom equivalent would be an IB bar formation such as I talked about a couple of weeks ago. Where the IB is broken the wrong way , continues on to match the low of the bar preceding the IB, then price reverses and breaks in the reversal direction. The break of the high of that IB is the trigger point. Or the mid point that you get in a classic double bottom chart pattern.
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Old Dec 11, 2008 4:58am
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The "double bottom" as a chart pattern gives us probability based method to trade that pattern with.

Sometimes if you don't find a bar formation there is often an underlying pattern there that you can trade with a high probability method. Giving you a trigger point, pullback possibliity, target and stop placement ideas.

A LOT of pins have double bottoms at their head point when you click down and look at a lower time frame.
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Old Dec 11, 2008 5:03am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Oh I see . I was tring to inter relate the two. I see that now.

Thanks for the clarification. My bad.


Sorry if I repeated stuff you already know amongst that too man. lol
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Old Dec 11, 2008 5:15am
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
not at all.
hopefully the more times i read it, it will eventually begin to stick.
The pattern thing is interesting and something I am trying to involve in my analysis. it has been triangles and breakouts this week - only problem is i keep seeing them everywhere now and expect a breakout.
lol... yeah. Welcome to "the path"...
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Old Dec 11, 2008 5:20am
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Remember too, that these patterns are like any other PA formation. They work best and give the highest chance of success when they are in the right place.

Consolidation breakouts, triangles etc usually happen for a reason. When it's a very good reason it gives a better chance of success. (edit: I'm talking of confluence and so on)
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Old Dec 15, 2008 11:14am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I'm about to close my scalp on fiber....
.
lol

BTW, good start to the week, y'all.
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Old Dec 15, 2008 9:20pm
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Originally Posted by chr5648 View Post
Gold is at a Long Term PPZ

Attachment 182679Attachment 182680

I am watching for PA and IB according to the DIBS method.

Any thoughts?
Watching like an eagle at this level like you. This and Oil ( which gave a nice trade last night.)

Would be nice to see a solid signal here. So far it's only given me short signals above my level. Or Long signals into it from below. Either way will be fine if I like the placement. Just not sure if it will give me something I like.
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Old Dec 16, 2008 3:05am
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Not majorly convincing.., but good PA confirmation for a 50% retrace entry on that 4hr BUOB we got yesterday on this pair. Coincides with a PPZ too. My stop is below the 4hr BUOB.
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Old Dec 16, 2008 3:19am
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
Hey Joe,

You gotta be mighty careful trading Inside Bars on the 4hr....
I'll back-up Mike big here. Coming off Asia you have to be very careful of IBs.

In my opinion you want the whole IB below the PPZ neatly for the highest chance of success too. If the preceding bar pokes through that's no problem most of the time, but to have the IB itself not break the resistence zone is pretty cool when you get it. ...Just something I've been holding too and have working well for me. I also like decent size deficit to the preceding bar, but that's just me.
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Old Dec 16, 2008 3:25am
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Originally Posted by sonicdeejay View Post
I guess u mean 1.763x lvl....

Sonic
Yeah. Somewhere around there.

I'd already planned to enter there if it came along, with a stop below the lows.
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Old Dec 16, 2008 7:29am
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Originally Posted by GetSmart View Post
Thankyou Jarroo for your feedback, I too liked the small range. So far the trade is evolving ok. I imagine "those guys" like Mike, Bundy, yourself and many others have countless screen hours logged. I need to start to collate all these little gems that come from the cross section of people here ! and review them regulary ! Its amazing how we can move from something we know, discover something new and promptly forget the other golden stuff we'd learned !

I feel like I know all the regular posters on this thread ! I've read for so long without...
One thing evident here is the range of different 'knacks' various people have here.

I trade one way. Raczek trades another. Rusty can be along those lines too. Hipster, Jaroo, Mark, Mr T and so on. ...Man... ...Where I skip a trade , these other guys start a great one. And vice Versa. lol We all colour it our own way and have setups we hate or love.

If you try and collate all our different opinions it might throw you down the wrong path and add more complexity to this than is really needed. (been there many times! lol)

Where as I ignore what I think is a crappy IB, there maybe some other factor that you have noticed, in your travels, that tells you that this one is in an exceptional circumstance that you have noticed repeating itself consistently and reliably over time. (Not just IBs of course.)

There's no correct way to trade other than the way the works for you.

Happy trading.
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Old Dec 16, 2008 2:34pm
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Originally Posted by canados View Post
I shorted it too... stopped out
:-(
Don't worry guys. I was short too.

It struggled the whole way through. Some times they do just do that though, ...So I held too.

Also lost out on GBPCHF in similar way. It even had a trendline bounce working against it. lol

If your position size is right, this shouldn't mean much to you.
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Old Dec 16, 2008 2:54pm
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
Hey, if I am seeing the same things as you Bundy, even losing doesn't feel bad.

I didn't put much size behind it for a few reasons. So I lost very little. Just wanted to make sure I was on the right path. Great for me to hear, THANK YOU!
We were at previous high (1995) ....a pretty good round number too.... and a very nice looking BEOB on the 4 hr.

Way better than my very crappy choice on GBPCHF. Looking at it now, it's a horrible BUOB. ...Puts the EURGBP trade into perspective. Which was worth the risk IMO.
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Old Dec 16, 2008 8:38pm
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Originally Posted by Mr Smith View Post
Did anyone keep there shorts from the daily pin, I closed out, wishing I had kept some running.

I bet mike is still short.
Daily chart has not given any reason to close out yet.

Would love to have kept mine running too. I entered on the 1 hr originally on an IB. Trade made awesome money for the risk, but the position size was way too big to manage by the daily chart without watching like a hawk at all hours. The rest got stopped out.

Have been opening trades in two parts. I'm going to split them up further now. Allows for multiple pre-set TPs and seperate Stop positions. That would have worked perfect in this situation.
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Old Dec 16, 2008 8:43pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
nope closed out just above 1.22 unfortunately and then my entry at 1.25 just never looked good enough to get back in. So I missed the last 200 pts


Mike
There's been a lot of that lately. Where you can be confident of the place, but not confirmation.

Especially gold. I've been keeping an eye on that. The levels are working great! ...but the bar signals have sucked! lol
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Old Dec 17, 2008 3:05am
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(Man, I wish I was 18 learning this stuff. )
Dude, you're not the only one! lol

Even Mike. ...The smart asse.
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  #17026  
Old Dec 17, 2008 3:43am
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What a minute . . Mike's not 34 . . he's in his 20's . Sorry Mike. My bad.
Very easy mistake to make. Man beyond his years.

I wish I had my head screwed on as well as that when I was his age.

Chuffed yet Michael??
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Old Dec 17, 2008 4:48pm
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Nice one Jeff
The break of the daily IB also meant the completion of a (not too pretty, I admit) 1-2-3 pattern on H1 (could also be seen as a H&S there). Unfortunately it didn?t come back to test the breakout area. I had a hunch but didn?t take it on a pure break...still watching a lot and learning

RM
I was wanting the same thing for an entry. Can't really do much about it.

Liquidity must be seriously thin at the moment too. Not giving me the type of trades I like such as that.
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Old Dec 17, 2008 8:17pm
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Could you try it again and remove the fib levels and daily pivot levels. Just the PPZs.
Here's one alternative view.
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Old Dec 17, 2008 8:18pm
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Here's one alternative view.
Damn. That's was a good divergence trade at that high a couple of days ago too. lol
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Old Dec 17, 2008 9:03pm
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Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
Hi bundyraider, could you please explain me what "divergence" means?
Some example....???

Thank you....
Hi Trujillo, Here is the same chart I posted but with divergence highlighted (IN bright yellow)

The top yellow line on the price chart is sloping upwards, but the other yellow line marked on the MACD down the bottom is sloping down. The two have are heading in different directions.
This adds strength to any short signal.

THe following link has an explanation : Divergence Information (About halfway down it's page... )
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Old Dec 18, 2008 2:00pm
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Originally Posted by Rainmaker View Post
Same story here as with EURCHF...did run without looking back. Where have all the pullbacks gone???

RM
I know. Annoying.

That's it for me.
I'm backing out till after the new year. Taken trades the past couple of days that I wouldn't normally take. I think now's the time to enjoy the holiday season. lol

In case I don't drop in, have a good one everybody!
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Old Dec 18, 2008 2:03pm
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Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
Assuming EURCHF closes for the week in this general area, I will be looking to go short on a retrace back... take a look at the weekly... I plan to hold this baby for awhile.
Nice.
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Old Dec 23, 2008 4:23am
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.
.
The Weekly BEOB should have you thinking that the Daily Pin Bar may be going the other way and the strength of it would be weak.
A few reasons to not take that daily pin and actually look for an entry in line with the weekly signal... ( )

Gotta watch those trend lines people.

(I see these as one of the least risky of setups... Real decent PA confirmation after a trendline break. OK Pic says DBHLC but technically a BEOB. I trade them the same way anyway. lol)
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Old Dec 23, 2008 4:13pm
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The last trade I entered was this one last Thursday and the only trading I'm doing is by managing this particular one. So while I've got a clear example already drawn up on my screen from yesterdays post........

There's a handful of people here that have asked how I manage my stops , and you can't send pics through PM (??).

I tend to trail behind pivot zones that have been proven (as well as tripple top bars , IBs etc). This chart should give you an idea of what I was talking about with the pivot zone trailing component.

The bottom 'pink' support hasn't been proven as a pivot yet, so my stop is still trailing behind the previous one that HAS been proven.
This looks like I am willing to give back a lot of my profits, but I'm not. I've taken profit twice in this case, so I've made a good chunk already and have no problems keeping a conservative safe stop for the rest. The last and final pre-planned take profit was at the just touched major PPZ at 1.5150.

The first take profit was at the support line defined by the BEOB at around the 1.5300 area , defined here by the first pink line ( this later proved itself to be a PPZ when price returned and was rejected ). On a retrace entry (50% line of beob here, but is often even better ) this is my my first TP if I think the position on the chart warrants it. On a really top-notch set up I won't take profit until I hit a strong PPZ OR get price action that tells me to exit. Usually something resembling an opposite direction signal.

The position sizes I use and how much I take off is still a work in progress. LOL
....If I were to have a major task for next year it's going to be to work on refining that aspect of my trading further. My brain boggles with ideas, .......as always. LOL

I'm a firm believer in everyone finding their own style of trade management. To me it's totally about what keeps your mind in a well reasoned state and you need to find the method that gives you that. Start off with the most account friendly version first and develop from there.

.
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Old Dec 23, 2008 4:28pm
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5. The most important one. Do not listen to others and their views....98% out of time... they are wrong...
If I read and contemplated on every post placed recently in this thread, I would get huge headache and would probably question myself every 5secs....
Amen!!

I personally approach it from an arrogant point of view and stubbornly hold to my own thoughts on set ups. LOL

It's always worth taking note of what others are saying though, because you often do find something you missed on a chart and there's also no end to the learning.
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Old Dec 23, 2008 4:30pm
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HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND A MERRY XMAS TO ALL,

JIM
Ditto bud.

Love this time of year. Friends and Family.

Can't wait to catch up with everyone who's back in town down the pub tonight too!

Catch y'all in the new year!
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  #17499  
Old Dec 24, 2008 4:46am
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Originally Posted by Mr Trend View Post
With this mindset, I give you 30 days. That's probably being generous. These are the famous last words of most traders...except for the "old at 26" comments... which reminds me of a little boy who once told his Dad that he saw this "old man" doing this and that, and his Dad asked him, "How old was this "old man?", and the little boy responded, "30."
lol. It's like when 7 YOs etc say " I remember when I was a little kid..."

Like they say 40 is the new 30. 50 is the new 40 etc etc.

...Or as I like to say "You're only as old as the women you feel!"
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  #17540  
Old Dec 26, 2008 9:35am
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Originally Posted by Yohay View Post
I think that the Aussie is ready for a break upwards. It won't happen now, during holiday season. The Aussie has all the reasons strengthen on the expense of the greenback.
On fundamentals, I agree that it should. But let's just watch what happens at the key levels eh?
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Old Dec 26, 2008 11:03am
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Originally Posted by HipsterPipster View Post
I wonder about this Bundy. I have been reading that China may suffer some soon, and filter a little to Aussie. PA will tell as always.
Buy the rumour. Sell the fact eh?

China is definitely key though. The talk is that china still has enough internal fire to still kick along at a phenomenal rate of growth compared to other nations even if that growth halves or even worse. Their link to the outside world will bring them only so far off the boil, but their thirst for moving forward on the home front is far from quenched.

I don't know. I might be young at 34 , but I've figured out enough to know that these bust cycles tend to be underestimated by even the most respected analysts. They just don't seem to be able to get a grip of the domino effects. ...and repeatably through out history too.

I don't trust anything but TA. For the sake of my own countries economy only am I hoping that the "Super Cycle" as they call it will cushion us here. And I can see how it can. I can also see that the thirst for 'safety' can outweigh everything. We have Sooooo much room to move with the RBA rate here.

That is my reasoning.

PA will show us, as you say. Because we KNOW that even if the fundamentals support a particular direction, emotion and general market sentiment can still let it continue the other way for any amount of time. ...so we watch for 'real' signs of turn arounds or continuations.

Hip....
We are so lucky to be involved in this method of trading aren't we? . Look at all that crap I just said above?? .... Nothing beats just trading key levels! You don't need to be a economical freak with above average understandings to do well!!

It's so much simpler!!! lol

..
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  #17545  
Old Dec 26, 2008 11:28am
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Well said Bundy. I actually failed economics in high school & now i trade currencies for a living...
If only those teachers could see me now..

Now where did i put my Bundy eggnog.
lol ...please don't mention bundy again for a few hours was drink of choice. Just had a looooong session with rarely seen mates from back in school. ...and still buzzinghere at 3 am! (....love this time of year. .....just not right at the minute. lol

Ok. take that back. calling it quits abut now. Things are looking pretty UN-buzzy all ofa sudden.
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Old Dec 27, 2008 10:39pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
We dont have the unlimmited supplies of bundy here in the states as its not sold/imported here. probably a good thing for me.
So not able to abuse it as it is back home. We have to have friends/family bring it over, so it gets rationed out accordingly.
Good luck with the hangover Bundy.
Not usually a big fan of the stuff, but it was hella good that night.

Genius here decided another drink was in order when he got home too. Jack though. That's the one that did me in. Considering I didn't take much care in the measuring it either. lol

(Funniest thing was finding the burnt cheese toasties in the toaster oven in the morning. lol)
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Old Dec 27, 2008 10:48pm
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Originally Posted by Flem26 View Post
... as long as there is a market to trade.
The only thing that stresses me now.
Been thinking a lot lately about the fact that I've got this going really well now and the only thing that can spoil the party is the changing of the rules. The way the world leaders were carrying on recently about traders and blaming the whole group of us got me worried. lol
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  #17613  
Old Dec 29, 2008 8:37pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
My final tp was hit, so I'm flat for the moment. If it wasn't for the the 'slow season', I'd probably reversed at that tp. Now it's a waiting game, but I tend to think we're going up to old tp1 from here..
.. also looking at g/chf
With the exception of the gbp/chf comment, I was about to post an almost identical post in response to Hips. LOL

Out with limit at 1.4810. Has been a nice easy trade to manage over the holiday. Text book.
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Old Dec 29, 2008 9:13pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
I'm 'envy' of my trading buddy, he was in the same trade (with almost identical entry/tps - what the skype is for..lol), but he trades much, much 'heavier' at $30/ps.
One day.... one day.... we'll get there.
Nice.

...I traded $20 per point on the Aus 200 by mistake once. Came out of it a winner, but watered it down pretty quick when I realised. What a shock! The move would have been worth $7000-$8000 at that original size, and incidentaly, NEVER hit my stop. ...Of course that's not the point! LOL
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Old Dec 29, 2008 9:26pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
I agree its a great spot for tp. Definately looks like time for retrace but i really like the look of todays beb....
I agree with your approach. Have been trying to blend my management styles to take advantage of both ways of trading. I can see a lot of work ahead still though.
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Old Dec 29, 2008 9:51pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
I think most have a story like this. When I first started to trade with real money, before J16 , I started with a mini acc but didn't understand the real pip value.
A couple of times i traded at 1 std lot/trade... risk must have been 50-60% at times. I got lucky for a while then blew my acc. Then i was wondering why??

Time & experience makes for some great lessons.
Hope all that come here in the new year take the time to learn not only how to enter but how to size & manage a trade. That is if you want to do this for a while.
This was when I knew better. About 15 months ago or so. Pure entry mistake.

...If you're talking about when I first started. ...well...lol... Probably not as bad as %50, but wouldn't have taken many losses to put me out of the game.

To think that now I tend to think I'm putting on a large trade if I go over 1%!! ...Have come a long long way!
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  #17625  
Old Dec 30, 2008 1:57am
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Originally Posted by djambazov84 View Post
Good evening guys,

I am observing a rather interesting follow thru for eur/usd in the Asian session.
Price clearly bounced off of the 50 fib of today's move and a bearish outside bar on H1 is developing. Now, my question is, as I clearly missed the train to add onto my position on the 50 fib touch would a break down of that bearish bar be prudent to short again ? Chart is attached
Hi Djam ,

A bit slow for a reply to that one sorry, but a good entry point would have been a break low of that first inside bar a few bars earlier.
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Old Jan 9, 2009 7:44am
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Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
Hi Guys,

Like playing good BPC patterns and the Aud/USd certainy looks a good possibility. Will not enter until a break of the recent high at approx 7260, but was wondering what targets any of you guys had in mind if it takes off?

berti
I've got 79.00 marked as my personal main priority target.

Edit: BPC?? Enlighten me.
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Old Jan 9, 2009 1:25pm
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Originally Posted by simoncs View Post
Hey Mike

I know you were looking for a potential long on this one, but just as alternative view, what do you think about this HnS on the 4hr (i know daily carries more weight). Have I recognised this pattern correctly?
.
Simon
Hi Simon,

I know Mike has just answered, but to go along with something else he would say regarding other PA, this pattern you've identified isn't located very well. "It's in traffic"

Look for this pattern in the same locations as you would a Pin. ...At swing highs after a decent trend.( or at swing lows if you are looking at an "inverse" HnS) .

You will do pretty well if you stick to that rule.
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Old Jan 12, 2009 10:13am
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Originally Posted by jicjoc View Post
Mmmm...
You wouldn't take that, even as a pin. A good close above the purple box would have been important. ...Meaning a Bullish Outside Bar would be much much better and a pretty nice trade to take too. ...Just pointing this out so you can learn to see "challenges" like that little consolidation area in the purple box. Watch out for them every time.
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Old Jan 12, 2009 6:55pm
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post


I Agree.
No bad!
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Old Jan 12, 2009 7:05pm
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
I agree....that 0.6800 PPZ/round number is a great spot for PA....like to see a longer nose in relation to the previous bars though
I've got my chart Fibbed to the max here with monthly studies and down.
I'm curious to see if this holds here (also off trendline as drawn) ...I'm kinda of expecting this to find it's way down to that large white Fib line and would not be surprised if it made it all the way to that .6600 area, which is a pretty cool PPZ when you zoom out.

Or maybe we get a short retrace up from this trend line first.
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  #18393  
Old Jan 12, 2009 7:08pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
I've got my chart Fibbed to the max here with monthly studies and down.
.
.
.
Alright. Drawing a fib expansion gives me .6600 almost exactly too.
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Old Jan 12, 2009 11:41pm
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Originally Posted by trujillo1980 View Post
No I bought @1.6870 (I needed to be sure it wasn't a fault resistance brake)
so it went 74 pips north in my favor before touching my S/L.

But now I see I should take profit early when playing against the trend to cover myself .

Take care
Like Jarroo said truj.

Got to cover your ass quickly.

Also, I know it's hard to keep track of all the different levels, but you opened that trade just below the 50% retrace level from the most recent down leg (on the daily). ..Should always keep an eye on that one. Try and select trades where you have more room to get into that first take-profit that you'll be happy with. That way when you set the rest of your position to Break-Even you will be happy with the locked in result and won't care what happens to the rest.

I think the biggest issue was what you pointed out yourself. Playing breakout type PA against the trend is a no-no for me.
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Old Jan 13, 2009 2:43am
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Originally Posted by djambazov84 View Post
SL is only 10 pips

as I said, a controlled suicide. Dont think its gonna last long
If you're going to do that, then watch Raczeks posts. It's a lot more controlled than it appears. Watch and learn there.

10 Pips. lol

...Not trying to be mean, but from the first week I started watching the FX screens I could see stop runners would kill you, trading like that.
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Old Jan 13, 2009 6:43am
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Originally Posted by Almfx View Post
Nice Divergence, But the shape PB is not convincing. Any comments

Attachment 190989
Hi Alm,

That last bar (or even second last bar??)you have on the chart is no where near being a pin.

The nose (or bottom wick) is normally twice or more the size of the body (the open to the close). The longer the nose is in relation to the body the better it looks (as far as a pin goes).
Also that nose should stick out from the preceding price action bars convincingly to be a strong signal.
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Old Jan 14, 2009 2:33am
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Originally Posted by Shermenator View Post
Hope you guys make a plan in the area I mentioned...

Attachment 191428
Not until the fat lady finishes singing.
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  #18521  
Old Jan 14, 2009 3:56am
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
Anyone catch that inside bar break on the AUDUSD??

Good for some pips right to where you'd expect it to stop...... at the round number PPZ
Yep. 6690 to 6791. Just grabbin' some downward too after riding the original short. Pretty happy. That makes 3 successful down up down trades in a row here. lol ...educated luck.
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Old Jan 14, 2009 4:47am
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yea how far do you think i should ride it up to?
Hi Ownenated, GRats on the first post mate.

I've got 1.3070 ...So watch out anywhere from 1.3050 to 1.3100 for starters.

Edit: Not in on that, by the way.
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Old Jan 14, 2009 3:52pm
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Originally Posted by Interceptor View Post
Thanks for that, Mike.
It's just been a shocking 2 or 3 days. It's not the losing('though that DOES sting), it's more the repeating of a couple of 'old' mistakes(not the Loony PB-that's a brand spanking new mistake!), which I thought I'd ironed out some time ago. Mix in some hubris from the celebration of a first profitable year of trading, and you probably get the picture.
Thing is, if I trade 'within' myself, so to speak, I'm totally confident that, over a full year I can, even now, make 20%+ on my account. But I started off with a crazy over...
Man, I read that and see my past self in your mistakes there.

Many here would admit the same. lol

Hey, I'm just posting my charts here with a Fib line you should have been watching. ....The orange one marked with the white crosses... It's also a pivot zone.
Notice how this fib IS the pivot. (Most PPZs worth watching are fibs from my experience.)

Don't be disheartened. It's just a learning curve mistake.

In most pin location cases like you pointed out in your set up that wouldn't break the low and trigger. It was only the need to touch that PPZ/fib again that began the trade. From my observations, a pin like that would often have already touched that fib (as it's low) and you'd have been ok and not triggered.
...Personally I'd have avoided the trade, because I've been doing this long enough now to check a few important things out religiously before every trade.

ALWAYS be aware of your weekly / monthly pivot and fib locations. They are so strong.

EDIT: I'd suggest always checking for trendline pullbacks too. A lot of failed pins (all PA , but especially pins) are only pullbacks to support/resistance and trend lines are just as valid in this.


Sorry, I looked at your original post last night before going to bed, and without zooming out I knew it didn't sit well for some reason, but I was too tired to check it out, find out why, and give you the heads up.

Anyway, keep on truckin.
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  #18639  
Old Jan 15, 2009 1:33am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Man, was I rude. Sorry about that Bundy.
Huh?

...lol ...Nahh . No worries man! Not a problem there at all! I actually just checked out that post. I remember that sequence. (What was the story about hypnotized brick layers remembering every brick they laid? lol )

Anyway I think you are looking back and not seeing the original innocence of it all. The absolute best way to show something is to...ummm... show something. So I did. lol

I consider you a good friend now. So cheers anway!
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  #18753  
Old Jan 15, 2009 10:42pm
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Originally Posted by osyrius View Post
Hey Raczek,

First of all, congratulations. I've been following your posts for some time now, and learning a lot.
About this GY trade, would you mind clarifying to me why did you bet on a Buy order when PA was dancing around the support?

I mean, trend is down, PA formed nearly a downward triangle there. I would remain neutral, but if I really HAD to trade it I would certainly put a sell. What an loss it would have been.

Anyway, I'm just curious as what have you seen, that I haven't.
Thanks in advance. And congrats again!
Hi Osyrius,

Go back a week worth of Racs posts and you'll be able to gain insight on his decision that way.

(It's to do with watching other key markets)
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  #18754  
Old Jan 15, 2009 10:44pm
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
This is one of my first trades applying what I've learned here so any advice is greatly appreciated.
Good work.
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  #18775  
Old Jan 16, 2009 2:22am
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
For those that took NZD/USD pin on the daily or anyone else who has any advice...

Where are you taking profits? Price just touched .5500 and retraced back down and I have my first target at .5550
James may have taken profit already?

...Don't know, but if I was in trade I'd be still waiting for it to hit that same area you specified earlier. Don't freak out yet. ...You're probably keeping too close an eye on it.
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  #18778  
Old Jan 16, 2009 2:55am
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Originally Posted by canados View Post
agree..his entries are amazing..nevers seen before..I feel shocked
I don't know how he picks the right countertrend levels
lol
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  #18784  
Old Jan 16, 2009 3:15am
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
allright rac this worship stuff is just way to much so i gotta come clean.

truth is rac's entries come from me via email.

sorry rac but my ego just couldnt take it anymore.

lol.

So you the Voodoo man?
Taken that short drive to noo orlins at some point?
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  #18792  
Old Jan 16, 2009 3:43am
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
true story.

last time i was in voodoo town was late 70's for a stones concert.

i was halfway thru a bottle of crown royal and a SHOE BOX FULL OF COKE came down the isle. i dont remember much after that but i woke up the next morning along with my sister, her boyfriend and a friend of his in jail in a podunk town called krotz springs if memory serves me correctly.

honest to god true story.
LOL... wow.. Man... that place gives EVERYONE stories.

Dude, the last time I was the there, even our 'straight as an arrow' english upper class travelling companion ended up with a prison name.

... We all had one of those Hurricanes in some club there somewhere out of the blue. Hell... we didn't even notice we were one short on the way back to where we were staying. Knocked us to our senses when our host freaked out next morning. He said he's either in hospital, prison or dead. If that doesn't sober you up...

Now krotz springs... that rings a bell. ...we had car probs in some place ending with 'springs'.
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  #18795  
Old Jan 16, 2009 3:51am
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Originally Posted by canados View Post
About raczek. It's not easy to pick countertrend levels, in fact the price often break out them. I often see strong trend break everything, but he picks the right levels where there are good reactions. I don't know how he does
Rac will tell you, it's not hard. ...just the pay off for spending LOTS of screen time and really studying and taking notice along with a mental attitude that no longer gets in the way of the right decisions.
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  #18820  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:54am
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Originally Posted by RedA View Post
Thanks for the answer Ghous.
You make me much clear now. Before, I was searching the PA patterns for an entry. As far as I understand, you always first search for the ppz, r/s level in the big tf. And waiting for the PA around that levle to confirm a trend where the price may head north or south. Am I right?
Put together some more insight for Red.

These are my "pet" situations. They show why you have to be very picky with your trades. Everything should be working for you. On your side. Trading below par PA bar placement will leave you struggling to make consistent profits. Check out Mikes Video in the guest area on the James16 site if you haven't already.
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  #18821  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:59am
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Originally Posted by RedA View Post
Thanks for the answer Ghous.
You make me much clear now. Before, I was searching the PA patterns for an entry. As far as I understand, you always first search for the ppz, r/s level in the big tf. And waiting for the PA around that levle to confirm a trend where the price may head north or south. Am I right?
Spot on. (onya' Ghous )

Look for good areas of confluence first. ...Then wait for Price Action to show you the next move from that point.
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  #18892  
Old Jan 16, 2009 1:48pm
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
I feel like I am watching it too closely, but I don't want to turn this into a loser. I have my first TP at .5550 as marked on the chart--it looks like a nice ppz to me. Last night it hit a high of .5526 so 25 pips away from TP1. Price is now around where I entered and I'm waiting for it to go to .5550, but I'm not sure if thats the right thing to do.
Are you on demo?

If it's a live account you are hopefully only risking around 1% on each trade and would be comfortable letting the trade run it's course.

It's likely to be just the usual pull back you get at bottoms. So don't stress about this not being in profit yet.

Most trades in this situation would have made it to that TP you chose in that first push , in my opinion. ...Only thing I would have done different is knock my usual 10 pips off of the .5550 target level as my first TP, but even that would have been missed here. lol

Take note that it has just reached the level of the left eye and shows signs of reversing. This is common. So take a deep breath and let it run. If it stops out , that's just way it is. Move on.

As a side note. Jim would probably have taken some profit when it first stalled with 40 pips or so under it's belt. Then moved his stop to Break Even... and went on to do something else or relaxed. lol ....But you'd have to ask him. ....My best guess is he would have chosen other pairs over this one to begin with.
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  #18894  
Old Jan 16, 2009 2:02pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
As a side note. Jim would probably have taken some profit when it first stalled with 40 pips or so under it's belt. Then moved his stop to Break Even... and went on to do something else or relaxed. lol ....But you'd have to ask him. ....My best guess is he would have chosen other pairs over this one to begin with.
Well there you go. Just noticed the NZD/JPY trade he posted a couple of pages back. lol

Check it out. A great way to trade.
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  #18903  
Old Jan 16, 2009 4:50pm
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Welcome Samwise!

No one in this thread will think or call you or anyone stupid for asking any question. When someone comes in and does treat people like that we kick their butt. They are NOT tolerated.

So ask away!

Quote:
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Goodday Sir, this the first time i am ever going to post anything on forex factory ( i guess you could say i was afraid of embarassing myself by saying something dumb infront of everybody) but i dont care about anymore because you have made me realize this is MY business and its success or failure depends totally on me, so as from this year, i will ask the most "STUPID" questions, so far as i can get answers. i have been trading forex actively now for about a year with a little bit of sucess. i still cant place my hand on any particular method...
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  #18915  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:19pm
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
It's live and I'm only risking between 1-2% per trade. I saw the nice bullish pin that formed on the 4 hour this morning which gave me some confidence.

Also, why do you say that he would have chosen a different pair than this one (which he did..he took NZD/JPY rather than NZD/USD)

Thanks!
No that was just a pure coincidence that he did. lol

I only gave that comment because I'm super picky. I just expected that there would be another pair at the same time that suited that pickiness.
I don't want to make you question yourself because of that.

All the pairs have some kind of correlation or another. ...As you know... As an example: Often all the yen pairs will show a bullish sign, or a bearish sign together.
...You trade the pair that gives the best placement and has the most confluences and has the most room to move to that TP. ....see what I mean??

I wouldn't get yourself in too much of a twist over your selection this time. There wasn't that much wrong with it.

Chart showing fib line that has so far stopped it (We probably should have watched that one) .....
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  #18919  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:24pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
jeez I'm only 25 not getting married in my prime :P
...You just KNOW how much your going to be worth when that 50-50 split comes along. That's all. lol
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  #18921  
Old Jan 16, 2009 5:26pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
...You just KNOW how much your going to be worth when that 50-50 split comes along. That's all. lol
Mike: " Hmmmm.... that's a potential %50 draw down. ...Better not marry..."
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  #18928  
Old Jan 16, 2009 6:05pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
in NY talk of marriage in 20s will have you in deep **** with your friends
.....mmmmmm..... NY women.

We arrived in Manhatten right at the end of business for the day as everyone began walking.
Wow.
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  #18939  
Old Jan 16, 2009 7:55pm
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
I only looked for downtrend fibs as potential resistance to the upside. Are you saying that it is a good idea to look for previous uptrend retracement levels for clues as to where price may stall out?
Any wave that encompasses the current action is worth considering. I throw up a chart for you.

Quote:
No worries, I'm not getting hung up my choice of NZD/USD but I just want to clarify something....

If you see that there is obvious yen weakness across the board then it would make sense to go long on NZD/JPY rather than NZD/USD if they both show pins at ppz and swing lows. My thought is that the yen weakness would allow NZD/JPY more room to move rather than NZD/USD. Let me know if this makes sense because I saw several similar pin setups and I wasn't sure how to decide which ones to take.
Yes, for sure. If you like the NZD/JPY setup then of course anything that works with you in the Yen department is handy. Especially if the opposite case (USD) is working against your other candidate. OR there are major supports/resistances about to play havock all around on the USD majors.

In general though, try to balance out this complication with just "trading it as you see it". I tend to flick through my charts writing down all the potential trades, and then take the strongest case ( or two or whatever)


Here's the chart I mentioned...

You can clearly see how the Largest Fib study I have here is still in play. (Thick white lines)

I've left the smallest fibs visable in for this example, but usually I'll use the "Visualization" tab on the lower fibs to hide them from the higher time frames so when I zoom out I see the current price in a relatively unconfusing way. As you can see here, they look cluttered otherwise and you can't see the bar very well.

Sunday night, I'll go through my charts and re-do most of them for clarity.
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  #18943  
Old Jan 16, 2009 8:58pm
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Not just LOOKS; Mike is de Man. His Patience, His Experience & His Advice are yours for the asking. Don't miss this period in time when it is availeable to you.
Since this is Mike luvin' day , are we now going to start the Chuck Norris lines with Mikes name instead?
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  #18962  
Old Jan 17, 2009 7:14pm
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Originally Posted by Gerard212 View Post
Could someone give me their opinion on weekly pinbars on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.Much appreciated.
USD/JPY

Good looking pin. Not the best placement, but tradable to some.

Placement in sideways action/consolidation. If you took it you'd risk a smaller amount and would also take profit quickly and set rest of position to Break Even quickly. Not ideal and a riskier trade, but the pin HAS come off of the 76.4% fib zone, which is a good sign for an extended 'long' run if we break the recent swing high. If you take it, make it a free trade as soon as you can.

If we do break that 94.60 area later this week, we're looking pretty good.

EUR/JPY

Same as above , but as Belakas said, it didn't close within the previous bar, so it doesn't fit the mould so to speak, and shouldn't be traded as a pin. ...good retracement though. ...Something doesn't look right (to me) with this pair, either, for a long.
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  #18965  
Old Jan 17, 2009 8:59pm
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Originally Posted by clockwork71 View Post
However, I like CHF/JPY myself.
Certainly does look good.

Keep forgetting about that damn sunday bar. lol
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  #18966  
Old Jan 17, 2009 9:14pm
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Originally Posted by Four Kids View Post
Any thoughts/opinions on the g/cad daily pin?

Close is a bit higher than open.Pin maybe a bit small compared to previous bars.

But it is not in traffic, and is off a ppz area and a 76.4 fib

Hmmm maybe need to wait and see if it breaks, not only the current bar, but also the 1.8240 area.
I think you're right about a break. I'm not happy with the yellow boxed area at all though. I think a break might make the 1.8200 level. 'Might' being the operative word. Not a "sniper" trade if you ask me.

To me this is just a pause on the way up and just a pullback or profit taking pin. Or more likely to be that anyway. Notice how it closed above that previous pin on the 8th Jan? It's pulled back to that level (Also round number 1.8400).

That confluence of Fibs is obviously responsible for the pause and if we had a clearer run you'd have a pretty good case to trade this, and a good area to place your stop behind.
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  #18968  
Old Jan 17, 2009 9:39pm
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Originally Posted by Four Kids View Post
Thanks bundy
No worries. : ) When I look at that a second time now I should have extended that yellow box a little higher. Nice looking pin too by the way. Just has a few things working against it making it a riskier play.
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  #19021  
Old Jan 18, 2009 8:42pm
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Originally Posted by RedA View Post
Hi all,


Where can I find more materials talking about Pin bar in traffic besides these videos on the website of James16 group for guest?

I want to learn more about this. Especially how to judge the space left for a trade and how to avoid jumping into some low profit-risk ratio trade.
Hi RedA, I've got a starter for you.

It's something that requires practice and studying charts to get a good hold on.

I'm sure there's a video or two in the guest area that get's into this. You may have not seen it yet, or missed that bit while concentrating on something else.

Here's a chart:

Taking the previous down wave (Marked by white line of course) as an example, you can pre-mark possible trouble spots for the next run upwards....

1. At the top of the wave there was an area where the pair fought sideways before deciding to head south. The brown horizontal line that is drawn marks the bottom of this area is a likely to cause problems on the way up. (Price pivoted stopped here on the both the way up and down)

2. Sideways price bars as we consolidate. Another price area to watch.

3. More sideways price bars as we consolidate again.

4. A quick pullback from the big 130.00 Round number . I've marked this with the purple dotted line on the chart. There was a recent low here. So we are very likely to get a hesitation and just likely to have price pivot around this point as it did when there were no more sellers.

The best place to have a trade is in an area where there is least resistence and that is between points 2 and 3. A decent run down that only stopped breifly at the 134.00 round number and previous resistance acouple of weeks ago as shown by yellow dotted line. NOW.... The best case would be if that Yellow line was higher too. That'd be nice, but for now, if you hit that level you watch to see if there is trouble (with an alert or whatever.) You watch it because even though it was breif, there is proof that it is still being reacted to. If it shoots straight through , then great, take your first profit at 2 instead. If it pauses, start to think about protecting yourself with partial profits etc.

You can clearly see how these areas created at least pauses on the way back up the past few trading days.

I'm sorry that this still leaves a lot of questions, but this is something that requires a LOT of work to get a hang and I think it will set you on the right path to study charts with.

In general.... The more you get a reaction to one level the stronger it is and more you want to avoid trading into it without breathing room.

You're on the right path , Red. Get a hang of that one question you just asked and you have the basis for a lot of the teachings the guys give here.

You have to watch all this with confluence in mind. i.e. Floor trader pivots, Fibs, Trendlines. ...heh heh... It seems complicated and a lot to learn , but it's SOOOO natural to see it all without trying once you get a hang of it. It's worth it. Study those charts.

Edit:
Double Bar lows, Previous weeks low, Previous Months low... There's a OT than be added to the above sorry. lol
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  #19026  
Old Jan 18, 2009 10:21pm
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Originally Posted by senorsam21 View Post
Hey Bundy... thanks for that great explanation/post. You're my new favorite.
LOL.

Cheers guys. Appreciated ...but it's nothing that others haven't covered very well throughout this thread, btw.
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  #19027  
Old Jan 18, 2009 10:31pm
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Originally Posted by rustyjeff View Post
Just a reminder. Bank holiday in the US monday.
Thanks mate. Have been slack with those details.

There's some good moves happening in this session anyway.
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  #19099  
Old Jan 20, 2009 3:24am
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Originally Posted by Ray_1 View Post
Hi Mike,
If you place the order on the high of the pinbar, where will the stop loss be? If it is placed at the other end of the pinbar, will the stop losses be too huge for any trader with a small account? Is there any ways to reduce such a huge stop loss?
Ok, not Mike, but there are options. Oanda for instance allows extremely small positions. The platform can be a pain to chart from, but you could possibly use them for your daily/weekly trades while you're starting out. You've got plenty of time to fire up their platform and set up your trade on the daily charts and higher.

You can trade down to the point where 100 pips is the equivilent of a few cents for example. Don't quote me, I'm not being exact here. lol

On stop placement.... If your trading a daily pin place it on the other side of that daily pin. You are asking to be whipped out often if you try and manage your stops on lower time frames just because you can't afford to place it in the right spot. A good rule is to trade the timeframe you had the setup on. Later on , when more experienced, you might get better at doing other wise. Even then, it more often than not just confuses your plans.
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  #19167  
Old Jan 20, 2009 2:19pm
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
I took the EURJPY CHFJPY weekly pins. Exited with the daily BEOB yesterday so not a full loss. Only thing I would do different is not enter on a Sunday night. Better for the pin to break during London/NY session imho.

Sensible money management was used so no big deal.

cheers

fxp
CHFJPY closed under the major monthly Fib so I was looking for a good break ,pullback and confirmation first anyway. I use IBFX for charting the most and it didn't break at all.

EURJPY was ugly to me. Probably responsible for making me hesitant with all those JPY bars. Too sideways.
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  #19172  
Old Jan 20, 2009 5:21pm
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Hallo....would you short this EUR/CAD on BEOB coinciding with PPZ and and 38% FIB ??? It just broke the TL on a downmove.
Thanks as always....your ar the best school...
Might work out for you there Benem.
Good work.

I wouldn't take it myself because I like my bearish outside bars to have a close cleanly below the previous bar. Position wise could be better too, but don't let my pickiness get in the way of you developing your own little set ups you like.

Chart below shows another resistance line that might just be the temporary hold up you have there. Maybe.
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  #19174  
Old Jan 20, 2009 9:28pm
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Originally Posted by DutchTrader View Post
BEOB on the nzd/jpy monthly chart. It'll be interesting if we get a bounce off the 45.78, or if we go straight to the all time low of 41.89
There's ten days to go! lol

Ten days is long enough to turn this into a Bullish Outside bar instead.
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  #19196  
Old Jan 21, 2009 2:20am
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Originally Posted by james16 View Post
...or if he proves he is not going to move this country toward socialism it will be very nervous.
It's had me worried lately. There appears to be a lot of socialist leaders in government everywhere at the moment. All blaming traders etc.
This is a world changing event here. The kind that can bring power to alarmists.
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  #19294  
Old Jan 21, 2009 7:42pm
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Originally Posted by Someone View Post
Could someone be so kind as to tell me if tradestation uses GMT as a close of their daily candles?

I am thinking about moving to that trading platform.

Thanks
Shoot James a PM. He'll be able to tell you.
Unless he notices your post first.
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  #19306  
Old Jan 21, 2009 10:07pm
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Originally Posted by arcus View Post
Hi guys, what do you think about Daily G/J PB? I'm a little confused about what to do when you have a PB but the PB or any other PA is not bounce off the PPZ, but rather the PPZ could act as resistance like in the G/J situation. PPZ ~131.550. If the PB break, it could be good for 600ps with 1:1 r/r.
On FXPro platform the pin closed within the previous bar. It's at a swing low and the nose of the pin has good length. Not perfect, but not one I'd tell anyone not to trade either. There are a couple of price points that might cause a problem.

It's a pin that's worth trading on a break.

If you do trade it, watch 127.00 area. Take profit at any sign of a stall and set the rest to break even.
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  #19308  
Old Jan 21, 2009 10:10pm
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Seems like alot of action today guys. I am becoming more comfortable picking out good pins and even some outside bar patterns, my problem is identifying traffic and the ppz. I know this takes some practice but is it just a matter of staring at the charts at different time frames and seeing where there is buildup? Learning this I know will keep me out of some risky trades and help me to adjust my TP's better. I dont know what I really am asking besides is there a method to finding ppz's?
Start on the Monthly chart and find the obvious Pivot Zones there, and work your way down to the timeframe you are trading. The higher the TimeFrame the stronger they usually are.
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  #19318  
Old Jan 21, 2009 11:03pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
You could have corrected my spelling Mike. lol
Mike doesn't correct spelling mistakes. He round-house kicks his internet computer and the whole world changes the way they spell.
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  #19395  
Old Jan 22, 2009 5:14pm
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
while waiting for yen crosses to break higher...

e/g
.
OOooooooo....

Tripple
divergence on the 1 hour.
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  #19416  
Old Jan 22, 2009 8:28pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Is this tripple divergence? Wow . . . wait a minute . . . looks pretty tough to trade in a trending market. Thank God for the Daily.

Jim
Yes. Rarer. And more powerful. If I'd had noticed it earlier, I'd have faded that failure to match the high around 15:00 GMT for sure.

Was awake too. Numb nuts here drank a Red Bull at 5pm yesterday.
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  #19451  
Old Jan 23, 2009 9:45am
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Originally Posted by unlv_tj View Post
James, I am quoting the last chart you put up, the break out on the USDCHG chart.

It appears that price was stuck between two fib levels for about a two week period on the daily chart you posted. Though I don't see a specific single bar PA example to trade against.

Did you put an order on each side of the box you have high lighted, and just wait for the first break out?

If so, then you got in long on the break above the box I am guessing.

Is this correct? Thank you for all your help!
Hi unlv ,

If you read his chart text again, you'll notice he was suggesting you draw those same lines in now and watch over the coming weeks.

Do it man.
...Magic trick.
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  #19453  
Old Jan 23, 2009 9:54am
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Ryanmacd would be proud.
But it's not with the trend.
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  #19457  
Old Jan 23, 2009 10:11am
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OOooooooo....

Tripple
divergence on the 1 hour.
Hmmm..... Quad??

Certainly got a fight on our hands here.

Nothings ever certain , but you wouldn't see me trading AGAINST divergence like that at the least.
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  #19459  
Old Jan 23, 2009 10:20am
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Originally Posted by Interceptor View Post
Good afternoon, all.
I'm looking at USD/CHF(daily), and according to my chart it's hitting a solid S & R area. I'm tempted to short it down towards my 38 fib, but am unsure precisely what PA I should watch out for.
Much appreciated if anybody has any suggestions.
Do you mean what PA on the daily?

Pins, (and I suppose two bar pins etc)
Bearish Outside Bars,
Double High Lower Close,
...getting a good example of any of those would be ideal.

Inside bar would be the hardest for a newcomer.

You'll know when you see it. If I remember I'll try and help you watch it. Maybe others too.
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  #19460  
Old Jan 23, 2009 10:24am
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Originally Posted by advfntrader View Post
Does anyone trade Mini Lots with Alpari in the UK ? - what are they like ?

I see ODL have started FX Discovery account for 2009 with slightly higher minimum deposit that Alpari also
They are one of the smallest companies. I'd rather not, myself. Just my opinion though.
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  #19517  
Old Jan 25, 2009 4:46am
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What do you guys think about this entry and stop loss for the USD/CHF. Overall I like the setup, there is a lot of confluence and validation for that pin (left out a lot of higher level retrace lines), even though it isn't the greatest looking pin.

The thing I am getting hung up over is the entry and stop loss. I usually enter in at around the 78.6% retrace of a pin, but I know this setup usually won't even retrace past the left eye which increases my risk, unless I move my stop loss.

I prefer the first scenario on the daily chart, but I don't...
Fear and/or greed are preventing you from using scenario one, which is what I recommend if you are asking that question.

If you're worried about stop size, it's because of either too small of an account, or your broker's lack of small enough lot sizes.

You pretty much answered your own question.

Don't try too hard to trade retraces until you have got a handle on the leading bar formations. Trading retraces isn't the key to your success. When appropriate circumstances arrise, they just improve your results later on when you have already conquered your main goal ...being consistently profitable.
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  #19520  
Old Jan 25, 2009 8:53am
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Hi Gannina,

My concern on this trade is that on my fxpro feed the break of the daily pb is heading straight into a round number of 1.1500 and then a daily/weekly ppz of around 1.1480....as James says you don't wanna take a loss on these kinds of trades.....I'd watch this one a bit more closely and set my stop to break even asap.....

Hope this helps,

Joe
You're right on to it.

I'm not excited about that pin at all. That IB says a lot. It's sitting pretty neatly on 1.1500. Proving respect for it. I'm not prepared to play a pin that's sitting right next to a sideways movement. Especially after a Friday where you tend to get profit taking anyway. I'm not seeing short there until we break that 1.1500 and show respect of the resistance. There's better.
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  #20642  
Old Feb 5, 2009 7:11pm
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Hey, Slightly off topic...

Has anyone figured out a high probability trading method for a womans mood chart??

This week I've finally become convinced it's totally in "random walk" territory.
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  #20643  
Old Feb 5, 2009 7:13pm
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Originally Posted by dmc View Post
The only pin I have on my dailys is chf/JPY...Take a look, I dont feel comfortable playing this bearish pin at a swing low against previous lows. Seems like it will not have room to run. Can anyone comment on this. I am going to stay away I think, nto sure at this swing low area.
Hi Run,

Totally bad positioning. It's stacked amongst sideways bars.

Wait for the clear ones that have you not questioning them at all.
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  #20646  
Old Feb 5, 2009 7:18pm
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Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
LOL they sell the demotivators ? Thats madness . . .

I want that as a 'T' , man. lol

Never checked out mikes avatar before. lol
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  #20648  
Old Feb 5, 2009 7:29pm
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Originally Posted by goldbird22 View Post
Can anybody tell how to set alarm or alert in the mt4 platform?
It's one of the tabs along the bottom in your 'Terminal' window pane. (The same pane where your trades and account balance show up)

When you have the Alert tab up , just right click within it to create an alert.
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  #20649  
Old Feb 5, 2009 7:34pm
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Originally Posted by dmc View Post
Tanks Bundy and Jigsaw I appreciate it. I am glad I thought exactly the way you guys did, makes me confident that I am learning the J16 material even though I dont go into a trade. Patience is a virtue. Thanks guys.
No worries. The urge to trade is usually the culprit when you take trades like that one.

The trades worth taking will always look awesome. They should just about be accompanied by one of those angelic harps playing in the background like in the cartoons, with a golden glow around the set up. lol
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  #20869  
Old Feb 9, 2009 9:13pm
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Originally Posted by max pips View Post
A few posts back J16 mentioned that he usually took partial profit at 30 pips and moved his stop to BE. This gave rise to a question. If your stop is say 150 pips and you take half your profit at 30 pips, then you need to reach 270 pips to have 1:1 risk reward. As such if you get stopped out once before you reach your 30 pip initial target its going to possibly take quite a lot of trades to make this up. Is this really the most sensible way of doing things? I guess if you are really cherry picking your trades it is as you can be 99% sure that you...
It's also not a hard wired 30 pips.

Picking your trades and waiting for the perfect entry at the perfect time, you can often enter and see the trade rocket away into profit immediately.

If you pick trades where the first likely pause is a handy distance away, you often grab much more than 30 pips in that first partial grab.
Really, waiting and ignoring many supposedly good trades in preference of those ones that are most likely to rocket safely into that first profit take situation allows you to ignore R:R.

It's just another way to trade. It's also a simple way to trade, with little draw down if done right. It just requires the ability to wait around a lot ,ignoring crap trades, to make it work.
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  #20870  
Old Feb 9, 2009 9:15pm
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Originally Posted by osyrius View Post
Attachment 203181

A, B or C trade?

Cheers,
Osyrius
XCOV's right mate. If the close was within the range of that previous bar you'd have a pin bar. It's not a pin bar
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Old Feb 9, 2009 9:24pm
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
Lost a mate, his wife and two kids in the Kinglake fires and a few others still in the danger line but most have bugged out now....terrible tragedy.
l
Gut wrenching man. Sorry to hear that.

All of us were hoping there was no one we know, but noticed a former resident from here on the front page of the Herald-Sun . Lost his wife.
Too many people lost to not know someone.
That footage of the freight train speed of those fire balls. What could you do? I'm sure I'd have got caught too in the same circumstances many were. So sad.
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  #20876  
Old Feb 9, 2009 9:55pm
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Originally Posted by max pips View Post
Perhaps then a fixed stop loss of say 30 pips is in order, as if it does not rocket away, the trade was not as good as first thought? The point of a pinbar for instance is that it shows a change in momentum, if it then retraces the length of the pinbar, surely that move is over. Just thinking out loud

max
Trade isn't as good as first thought? Then be pickier!
A good trade is always a good trade, whether you loose or not.

Some trades just don't work out. The point is that you are supposed to be so picky that the loosing trades are rare, but acceptable when they happen because you know you traded smart and patiently.

If you trade a pin bar and it gets taken out next bar, it's highly probably that you didn't take it in a good position and should have ignored that particular one in the first place and waited for another opportunity.

Yes a pin bar signals a change in momentum, but one bar is only capturing a moment in time. It's the position on the chart that should give you the reason to trade. Not the bar itself. The bar (once closed) is just the reason to pull the trigger.
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Old Feb 9, 2009 10:10pm
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Originally Posted by osyrius View Post
Aside from the fact it's not a PB, I see a candle which clearly felt support.
But the main feature I like here is the lack of resistance between 1.29 and 1.30.

Hmm, actually there's 2 minor PPZ's: 1.2930 and 1.2950.

Oh well, probably a C trade...

LOL.

Thx guys
Yes, it felt support. But what support? ...How many traders out there watching trendlines, pivots, fibs and other historic levels agree with you?

You're after trades where the MOST people agree with your level. You want as many people on the band wagon as possible. Look for your confluences.

I agree with your take on the space between 1.29 and 1.30.

BUT you forgot about getting over the 1.29 level itself to start with. If that bar had closed above that, it'd be a pin, AND it'd have more going for it position wise.

By the way, go to your daily chart and draw in this fib... ...Then go back down to your 1 hr chart and have a look.

Chart...

EDIT: UMMMM.... Ignore the pink line. I moved it from somewhere and didn't notice I left it on. lol
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Old Feb 9, 2009 10:12pm
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Originally Posted by max pips View Post
Yes a pin bar signals a change in momentum, but one bar is only capturing a moment in time. It's the position on the chart that should give you the reason to trade. Not the bar itself. The bar (once closed) is just the reason to pull the trigger.
That I like, thanks Bundy.
What? And the rest of my post you didn't??

Just kidding.

No worries man. Pleasure.
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Old Feb 11, 2009 7:02pm
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Originally Posted by ljr View Post
Ljr (we were not very imaginative with our user names were we )
lol ...Glad you pointed that out. I was weirded out at you answering your own post.

There is a good PPZ at 1.8300. Not the clearest strongest one, but still a good one.

LJR,
You can use channels if you like as well, but before entering a trade, as a beginner, you'd be better off checking for other confluences as well.
At the very least some fibs, round numbers that show repeatable support/resistence flips (PPZs ) etc

Chart below: Personally I always keep an eye on my trendlines too. Yellow line is from daily close graph , Pink is from bar extremes.
...It might seem like I'm just adding more reasons to confuse the decision, but if your channel, my trendlines, and a couple of fibonacci studies line up, you'll find that bars like that Pin will have a better chance of zooming off in your direction straight away.

Edit: Also, mike often points out, and I agree, that things like channels, flags etc work best when they are very clear to everyone and have well respected boundaries. I wouldn't be happy with that channel you chose, to be honest.
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  #21116  
Old Feb 11, 2009 7:20pm
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Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
Attachment 204298

Ok, I am so very lost haha, I think I have this trade completely backwards. To me the start of the pattern is the thumbs up,
......
......
......
PS: I know this isn't exactly a pin, if played to the short side, but im seeing how you guys were looking to play this to the long side, as its a REAL pin in that regard, just never came to effect. I didn't even see or consider that sadly.
Correct. ....Your "thumbs up" bar is a 'bearish/short' pin. and a nice looking one. So if we took a trade we would want to go short on a break of its low. IF everything else is working for it in positioning and so on. Sorry if we are confusing you. lol
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Old Feb 11, 2009 7:36pm
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Originally Posted by Jlr View Post
No no np, much rather be confused and eventually figure it out, then not figure it out at all. I appreciate all of the help from everyone, I will likely come back to these posts, as I feel completely brain dead right now, and am not sure if its all sinking in. Btw do you think I drew the channel wrong? Your channel and my channel are completely different, had I drawn your channel, I wouldn't of shown much respect to it at all and likely would not of even considered a short trade here. Very appreciative, ty.

Edit; ohhhh I get it now, and that...
Mines not a channel. Just trend lines.
No what I meant, was a better channel would be very very obvious to many people. I actually went to find one, but wasn't even happy with the one I quickly found, but here it is anyway since it will illustrate it a little better. lol
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Old Feb 11, 2009 7:52pm
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Understand, ty. I thought the one I had drawn up was pretty good, but yours are clearly better
All your line studies should be on the basis of 'the bleeding obvious'. For obvious reasons. More people will believe. ...And even better, more people will have their various stops set in a position that protects your order.
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Old Feb 11, 2009 8:16pm
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Very true, I actually thought mine was pretty obvious though. I was flipping through charts and that one sort of popped out at me. I guess different people see things completely different I suppose. Would probably not be a bad idea to post my channels, in say some kind of a forum, where people could comment on whether they think it is a good channel or not? Hmm sounds like a crazy idea, but just might have some merit to it hehe

Thanks again, off to bed
Will stop cluttering this thread now
Don't take my word for it that your channel isn't a useful one. Even that one I had drawn isn't the best. The really good tradable ones will respect the upper and lower lines multiple times without fail.
If you like channels though, i'd watch out more for horizontal ones between good PPZs. Nothing beats horizontal levels. ...the price doesn't change as time moves on so they are more solid.

And don't worry away cluttering the thread. The rest of us don't worry. lol
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Old Feb 13, 2009 9:17am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
From the area where price was sitting, when I said "time to take profit..." in my previous post.
I could've said "and reverse.." but it would sound, I'm running signals here..
Dude, Like I pretty much alluded to.... ...I'm loving this pair today.
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Old Feb 13, 2009 9:41am
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Originally Posted by raczekfx View Post
What about cable B-raider..?
don't you like my 50/61 & ppz setups?
.
Haven't changed from GJ chart all day. lol

I just set level alerts, then did other things.

....Chillaxin'
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  #21606  
Old Feb 17, 2009 3:18am
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Originally Posted by Pirabuji View Post
Hi Guys,

Is this a valid break out trade? Would we enter short on valid PA on the broken treand line?
As a beginner , stick to clear non-interrupted trend lines for these trades. You have the general idea though. I drawn some lines I would use.

You've actually chosen an ugly pair ( past week or so).

My chart.... Not many trades the past week. Better ones else where anyway.

Couldn't see any TL break/pullback trades I'd take here. You want "obvious".
Next one you see, throw it up and we'll have another go.
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Old Feb 17, 2009 5:49pm
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That is the crux of the matter....not looking hard enough doesn't come into the equation 'A' trades stick out like a sore thumb.
They certainly do.

When there's a top trade worth taking on the daily there's a sudden influx of posts pointing it out from every man and his dog.

That's how easy this stuff is. THEY are the trades to take.
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Old Feb 17, 2009 5:56pm
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
yes I have a Forum indicator that alerts me when bar closes, if posts per minute increase by X% over the 150day MA of posts it goes off
lol

Can you post that indicator?

And a template too please.
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Old Feb 17, 2009 6:22pm
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Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
I trade mainly weekly and daily charts with the occasional dabble off the 4hr and thats it....

I guess it boils down to your own individual makeup but I can't think of anything worse than staring at charts for hour after hour
Especially for us Aussies.

I've learnt to feel 'slow' days pretty well ahead of time, but staying up past midnight to trade the NY session every night smells suspiciously like social suicide. ...I'll trade it when I feel like it and conditions are good, but that's it.
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Old Feb 17, 2009 6:23pm
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Especially for us Aussies.

I've learnt to feel 'slow' days pretty well ahead of time, but staying up past midnight to trade the NY session every night smells suspiciously like social suicide. ...I'll trade it when I feel like it and conditions are good, but that's it.
Damn!!! Missed my five minute entry on EU.
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Old Feb 17, 2009 6:46pm
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Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
if you trade for a living i bet youd rather do that then sit in a cubicle for 8-10 hrs somewhere....
But if you can trade properly and have the necessary capital you have a choice of time frames.

If you trade for a living I'd bet you'd rather spend 15 minutes a day scanning your charts and then go off sailing, or golfing or flying or playing with the kids or pursuing a hobby that's become a business etc.
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Old Feb 18, 2009 2:11am
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Originally Posted by Piproo View Post
Go though slowly, like what im doing , 20 page a day, taking notes, trading from h4 and above mostly. in 3 mths ur will finish all the post
There's no easy way. lol ...but if you read the first 50 pages you'll find most of the staples covered.

It's really worth just nibbling at the whole thread over time though. You won't regret it!
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Old Feb 18, 2009 2:29am
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My Problem is i shot gun trades, like i am looking at the geepy and going i should short that.
Are you always afraid of missing the next good move?

Remember, we're after highly predictable moves with good expectancy. Not just about predicting the charts.

You have to say no/miss a lot of strong price moves along the way to being consistently profitable. Even trading intra-day charts you can go days without trading, if you are doing this right.
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Old Feb 18, 2009 2:54am
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Could be never caught a rip on my live account, well last one was for 217 pips but not ever bigger than that. Does J 16 have a 12 step program
JK i know patience. Or blown account my choice.
We've all been there man, so don't give up on kicking the habit. It's not an easy one to break.
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  #21729  
Old Feb 18, 2009 3:32am
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Originally Posted by NoBread View Post
My Problem is i shot gun trades, like i am looking at the geepy and going i should short that.
You hurting there now.

I was trying to figure out what was so important about that level it just reversed at and just realised... ....Gap was closed. lol

Nothing much could be done about it though, other than guessing. No decent signal. Shot-gunning, you could have played the 15 min BEB that started it off. But it's not the type of high probability trade I'm about myself.
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Old Feb 18, 2009 3:42am
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Originally Posted by advfntrader View Post
this is EXACTLY my problem too. A+ trades and into profit, then get over confident and give it all back scalping 5 min charts and just gambling basically. DISCIPLINE is the problem, not sure how I can learn it though !!
You have to bite the bullet and just stop yourself.

Nothing magic comes along and eventually stops you. You really have to be responsible for yourself right NOW. You'll be still doing the same two years from now otherwise. You already know what you have to do. Start now. Then Start again next month. And again the next month. Or two weeks from now and so on. ....Friend... it keeps going until YOU control yourself.

Just look at what Jim mentioned with the 25 blown accounts. That really says something about how stubborn this problem really is. If you think you still have something to learn about your discipline you're wrong. Other than the penny dropping extra loud some day and actually falling on your head hard enough to knock the realisation into you.
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Old Feb 19, 2009 7:39pm
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Originally Posted by jlmac27 View Post
Thanks for the input losVahGoose,
I think My trigger finger is getting itchy....But I have been strong enough to stay out of all these b,c trades I see.Due to my sleep and work schedule I have only been in 1 trade in the past 3 weeks.There also hasn't been many daily setups either.Really learning patience from this thread!!
P.S that one trade was a winner too!
Well done guys. It's worth it.

You may end up with one trade in 3 weeks this time, but other times you will get a few quick 'A+' trades in succession. When you know this, the slow times are a bit easier to weather. ...A 'bit'. lol ...no...seriously worth it. Keep it up.
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  #22048  
Old Feb 20, 2009 8:28am
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Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
Broadly speaking, I've noticed this a few times on charts where PB's have formed against a trend. I've not noted them down enough, or tested them to be sure of this, but definitely something that I'm looking into further. If we get a PB against a trend, and that PB breaks in the opposite direction; ie doesn't confirm as a PB but breaks the tail instead; it's a good signal for the continuation of the trend. Can this be played as a reverse PB formation? More testing will tell...

PS. I did have a breakout trade on usdjpy that was taken off a BUOB,...
I play pin bars backwards all the time.

It's just like any other set up talked about in here. ....It depends on the placement in the chart against your confluences.

You can bet though, when you get a pin with a really good long "pinochio nose on steroids" at a swing high / low you don't trade against it. ....For all the others , it's open season. (depending on that "chart placement" thingy )
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Old Feb 20, 2009 7:26pm
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Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
Good to hear someone's already profiting from this concept. It's always benefitial to know that a concept can work. Now comes the lengthy process of testing and refining...

Thanks Bundy
Chris
Just to be clear... My way of trading pins in reverse involves fading the move when a pin is in the 'wrong place' kind of. Though, to me, it's the right place for that type of trade.

I know where in a chart to do this and I don't play a break of the nose as you may be thinking I do.

Jduester pointed out the discussion about failed pins middle of last year, if you're wondering where that conversation took place look around then.
...I remember it was then, because I went absolutely crap for those couple of months. lol ...for various reasons.
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Old Feb 20, 2009 8:26pm
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Originally Posted by dkmb92 View Post
"fading" ive seen this term, but am still unclear exactly what it means. does it have anything to do w/ scaling into/outof a position? (i dont know). thx.
Fading is pretty much entering without confirmation.

(One example would be entering on a touch of a level just because you have a strong gut feeling it will reverse about there. )

So although it's not defined as scaling in/out of a position (has nothing to do with it), the risk of the trade usually means that is scaling in is something you often do hand in hand with fading anyway. lol

When many confluences line up at a particular price point and you have continuing evidence of the level holding many times, to an experienced campaigner fading the move becomes an option. ...pretty much entering on an educated guess. ...one example anyway.

.
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  #22158  
Old Feb 21, 2009 6:53pm
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Originally Posted by PipGator View Post
.
.
My broker (Oanda) allows me to use any lot size I want. This means that I can set large stop losses and risk as little as one cent per pip.
.
.
Actually ...much less less than 1c per pip.

Considering the time frame newbies should be sticking to, Oanda's negatives mostly aren't a problem.

I personally think they're a fantastic broker for new comers to start with. No sizing limitations that can cause oversized trades. ...Just use MT4 for your charting.
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Old Feb 24, 2009 8:35am
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Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
Anybody into this pinbar? I was quietly expecting good pa there and there it is...those buys are from fading into weekly pin.
Yes. I was in . Now out . Trendline break then pullback to your set-up.
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Old Feb 24, 2009 8:54am
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Originally Posted by BWise View Post
Which feeds/platforms/brokers do you find is the best for playing pin bars?

The reason I ask is I see that most of you post screen shots of Metatrader. I am currently on GFT Dealbook 360 and most of the recent pins posted didnt show up as pins on my platform.

Any suggestions, senior members?

Thanks
MT4 is just a fantastic fast to use great featured charting program. And is free.

A lot of us trade on other platforms and use MT4 for the charts. You just have to be mindful of slight spread/quote differences etc.
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Old Feb 24, 2009 3:28pm
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Originally Posted by encul?e View Post
I've been watching these yen crosses for over a week waiting for this break north and haven't managed to get on board any

=(
Missing a good move is better than placing a bad trade.

I know it sucks, but worrying about it only leads to over-trading.

If you didn't get a good signal there's nothing you can do about it. There's always more to come.
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Old Feb 24, 2009 3:39pm
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Originally Posted by encul?e View Post
There were great signals. I just happened to be in bed =p

thanks =)
Me too half the time. But I get others.
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  #22429  
Old Feb 25, 2009 7:09am
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Originally Posted by pipmyride View Post
help me get over my shock at closing when news came out better than expected ...
Dude.... Don't listen to the news. You don't need to with these methods.

If you know your strong confluence levels they tend to be where news spikes stop anyway.

Maybe avoid NFP fridays. ...though even they haven't been so bad recently.
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