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james16 Chart Thread
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Sep 24, 2006 9:51pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4X=0
But what if that 3rd bar keeps going up? You will have based your trade off a pinochio that never existed. Is this the right way to play these? Price action confirmation will have never occured. It's almost like taking out the benifit of letting price tell you where the market is going, by trying to predict the price action. What do you think?
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Playing a break low of the pin bar is a valid trade. No , it doesn't technically have the second eye yet , but the break increases the odds. It WOULD be better if the pin was longer though.
Also, if you zoom out to the daily, you can see that there are TWO lots of fibs you can draw here. Both support the idea that the pinbar is a good play if it breaks convincingly.
It's interesting that both sets of fibs create a channel around the recent price action.
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Sep 26, 2006 9:49pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4X=0
Yep, that was some forex humor.
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Ha ha, being a couple of days later, I couldn't figure out then what I was talking about their! LOL
After setting up the fibs again I can see:
Price did a richochet between the 61.8% Fib and the 50% retracements before continuing down past the bottom of the pin. (also a 76.4 and 61.8 ret of another set I drew.)
It's always nice to see a double test like that. Especially when the second one runs out of steam at a fib. retracement of the pin.
All good sheet. 
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Sep 26, 2006 10:04pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4X=0
I suggest reading the first 5 pages of this thread. It ain't no fairytale, but it's the best source for a pin bar definition.
However from what I've gathered, there is no specified length for the middle bar and the eye levels are such that formal argument or discussion is possible. However, I believe the open and close of the middle bar must be within the range of the two outside (eye) bars.
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I've written a pinbar indicator.
It's customisable and needs to be setup based on the history of the pair and the timeframe you are working on. i.e. Mimimum nose length and so on.
It's very subjective. You can make it as sensitive or insentive as you like. To the point where it shows too many pinbars or the absolute strict pin bars.
I'd love to post it, but I've already posted a couple of indicators that I don't consider complete and am hesitant to do it again.
It works for me and catches most pins showing visually something I can then check out properly.
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Sep 26, 2006 10:06pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Oops, meant to mention. I AM willing to post it.
I just want to check it out again later tonight before doing so.
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Sep 27, 2006 8:50pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne
I was hoping for something concise that I could use to write code.
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Hi TRO,
I can give you a run down of what I went through while writing my own indicator for MetaTrader4.
* Narrowing down to bars where the open and close were within the previous candle filtered out too many good pins that are successful many times. So I pulled this filter.
* Checking for close position in relation to both the low and the high, then comparing the ratio between them.
i.e. For a bearish pin, having the nose (Close to High) at least 150% the size of the bottom section (from the Close to Low) gave good results, not missing many pins, yet filtering our most other bars.
This ratio is adjustable in my MT4 indicator and I play with it a little on some pairs/time frames, but %150 seems to do a good job. Making it larger makes the indicator more strict, picking even rarer , better pins. But I'm just after visual help. I don't need it to trade for me. Keeping this value at 150% marks out all probable pins for me to run my own discretion over.
* Looking at the indicator code I also check that the Open is in the closing half of the bar at least.
I think I could improve on this with a ratio too. Seems ok for now though.
* It checks that the high (for bearish pin) is above previous bar. Checking that the nose is indeed protruding past the eye!
The indicator also checks that this protrusion, or nose length, is at least a certain number of pips PAST the previous bar.
This locates pins properly within the chart. It filters pin type bars that are pointing the wrong way in relation to the trend or are just in an obvious wrong spot to be a pin.
THIS is the figure I have to play with when adding the indicator to a new pair , or even changing time frames.
* I'm also checking for one of two conditions. Once again using a bearish pin as an example... I check that the previous bar's low is lower than the pin bar OR if that is not the case, then I check that the pin closes at least below the previous bar!
This is the trickiest filter. Or what I mean by that is, the filter that I think I may have to work on a bit more.
The reason I check for either of these is to allow for the occasion where there is a really short (narrow range) bar before the pin. Checking that pin closes below this seemed to do a good job here.
That's it!!
It's good for a visual cue and makes it easier to stroll through the charts on daily checks or hourly checks and so on. I just glance at the screen with all my pairs on it. If I see an arrow I go and check it out properly on that chart.
I'm considering using ATR to automatically set the minimum nose length by (in PIPS). Hopefully this would make it unnecessary to change this value for every time frame or pair I add it to.
Hope this helps.
Cheers,
Bundy
P.S. Probably, to avoid cluttering this thread, if you would like to discuss anything here send me a P.M. if you wish.
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Sep 28, 2006 6:24am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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SeekingLight,
I agree mostly with what you're saying , but dude, you're missing the point of why I've written it.
Now, before I continue, I'll mention that the following is meant to be read and taken lightly. I know how easy it is to read this sort of reply in the wrong tone.
Now, to continue to reply to your post...
I've been hesitant to mention this indicator at all ,for the same reasons you mention above.
I'm certain Jim will agree ( in fact, I know he will)...
...it's crucial for beginners... and everyone else for that matter, to learn to "read" all these bars he teaches and recognise the good ones themselves. To the point of it being second nature. To have a coded "crutch" available may screw with that learning process. Especially with an indicator like mine that would have everyone playing substandard pinbar trades and taking all it's markers as gospel.
Now I'm wishing I hadn't mentioned the indicator and just sent TRO a PM.  :
I didn't write this as a visual aid for ONE chart. It was written as a visual aid for *GROUPS* of charts.
It's also great for the workshop.
I can keep the monitor going with a few charts running and while doing real work I can quickly glance up and look at the screen.
I'm not always interested in watching every minute of every day. That's the best way to go nuts and close/open trades early and whipsaw etc.
If you read everything I said above you'll notice that once a "marker" shows up, I open that chart on the larger screen and check it out properly, using my own discretionary abilities.
There is another major advantage to having an indicator do this: ...Alerts...
I haven't set this up yet , but why not be alerted to a new pinbar at the close of the 4 hour bar on, say, the EUR/CHF?? Or all good i4Bs on the daily closes, ETC?
Brother, it doesn't matter how good a trader is. Anything that helps us to concentrate on the absolute best setups is a VERY useful tool. If I'm not pressured to search for trades all the time, it will be MUCH easier to "snipe" those good trades and not use the "shotgun" approach.
I will be writing MANY EAs for myself that will ALERT me to (not trade) certain situations accross many pairs. To increase the odds of me finding REALLY good trades.
I hope this enlightens you as to why I and some others choose to write or search for these types of indicators.
Cheers mate,
Bundy
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Sep 28, 2006 6:29am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4X=0
What we'll do is color code the pinochios to reflect how they compare to the model pinochio, (yet to be determined). Behold!, the blue, red and orange pinochios are born!.?
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I love the way you think bloke! 
Using different colors for the best pins isn't such a bad idea. I already use different colour arrows for other formations though, but now that you suggest it. 
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Oct 12, 2006 10:32am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Hi SeekingLight
Those two pin bars you have marked out aren't very good examples.
The first one is more of a spinning top pattern (in candle speak) and indicates indecision in the market. The bulls and bears are pretty even in their market power. You would not call this a pin at all.
For a bar at the bottom of a down trend to be called a pin it would need to show obvious signs that the bulls are gaining control. i.e. Closing way into the top third of the bar at least, for starters.
The second bar I don't know how to explain, but it would look a hell of a lot better if the high was further up. If it jutted up above the previous bar more thoroughly even. ...Overall it's an ugly pin.
You really want signs that the market took one last quick gasp in the direction of the trend, and then retreated just as fast when everyone went "Oh shit! It's gone too far!! ...I'm pulling my orders!"
At first, support for the previous trend looks like continuing, and in some cases even seems to accellerate when the bar first forms ( creating a larger range than previous bars!) Then, as all support for that direction dries up, everyone realises price has gone waaay too far and they pull their supporting orders, positioning them selves or waiting for a reversal.
There are so many people agreeing that we should be going the other way now that price actually retreats back. And fast! It retreats so fast that we get all the way back to the opening price of the bar before it closes. We get a great indicator of trend exhaustion. A pin bar! 
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Oct 12, 2006 10:43am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Yeah, for sure.
James was not pulling our legs when he said you could trade quite happily on understanding pin bars alone. When you get them in the right place they absolutely rock! 
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Oct 26, 2006 11:33pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Well caught Geoff!!
Looks good to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoffrod
Hi All,
Just wondering how many of you look at monthly charts, reason i ask is i was looking at the swissy daily today and flicked it to the monthly and saw a lovely little shooting star candle forming AKA pin bar, so i put a fib on it and low and behold the high of the candle is right on a 618 ret, very interesting, so i zoomed out a bit further and the high of the candle happens to be pretty close to old support levels going back to may 2003 and october 1998 which now could become resistance, sending the swissy back into it's downtrend.
Anyway just wondering if anyone else has an oppinion on this, agree or disagree, Also would be good if James would give his opinion on this.
Cheers
geoff
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Oct 30, 2006 5:24pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
...The PF is going LIVE ... meaning, we'll be able to watch Jim trade in real time.
Take Care
Habeeb
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I just had the most evil laugh brew up inside me then.
...That'll be awesome. Nothing. I mean NOTHING, beats watching someone actually make real trades. You learn SO much more than when you read a book about "after the fact" / Hindsight setups.  
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Oct 30, 2006 6:01pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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This is what I thought was meant! (not REAL "Live")
It's way cool Jim. I bought one of Mark McRaes courses which were created with Camtasia. Besides the majority of the course being done with video, he also added some sample trades (created in 3 or so parts each as the trade progressed over time), that showed how he implemented the method. As he opened the trade he talked about each little thought process. Even his mistakes! ...Which he corrected imediately of course. Even those little mistakes teach. You realise what NOT to do. Even your little errors, as you talk them through, are worth it.
Don't feel rushed. It's like a good trade.... We've gotta hava the patience.
It will be worth the wait.
Thanks mate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
careful guys,
i may at some point decide to do a live trading room but thats not what we have in mind at this point. we are building a new website. that website will do some great things. as a subscriber you will be able to view streaming tutorial charts with voiceovers instead of the cunbersome way we do it now. the written material will always be there but being able to teach like your sitting next to me will be a tremendous advantage not only to you but to me also. these videos will be upted and logged as time goes by so youew them at anytime. also all the written tutorials will become just a supplement as w will have complete video tutorials covering the same material. the private forum will remain in some capacity for discussion. we still have not decided exactly how its going to be joined but merlin is helping us decide what would be best.
one thing i have not done is hurry things just to stoke subscriptions. in fact we may limit subscriptions at some point. what we have done has been very well recieved and our intention is to just keep increasing the amount of material and value not to mention an easier delivery.
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Nov 24, 2006 9:56am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alcastro
What happened to this thread? It is suddenly very quiet!!!!!
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It has it's moments. 
Jim himself has mentioned that he wants to post here again himself, when time permits. He's a busy man for the moment though.
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Nov 27, 2006 5:17pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Skyhr,
"1) On the double high lower close / double low higher close, what do you mean by lower /higher close - 2nd bar's close is lower than the 1st bar's close, or lower than 1st bar's low?
In the pictures, it looks like double high lower close is where 2nd bar's close is lower than 1st bar's close. Vice versa for double low higher close."
Double bar low, and close is higher than the HIGH.
Double bar high, and close is lower than the LOW.
...just think of the significance of the price taking out/beating the previous bar and staying that way as the bar closes.
"2) On pinochio bars, what did James mean by "3rd bar can't take out 1st bar by a tick or two" It looks like the nose (protrustion) is a doji on candlestick, and then I have no idea what the eyes (1st and 3rd bars) are supposed to be like...
Does it mean that the 3rd bar's close is within the 1st bar's range? Sorry, but the pictures on this one isn't clearing it up for me much."
I'm confused with where you got that from?? ... but the 3rd bar does NOT have to close within the 1st bar's range at all.
Maybe someone else will read your question better than me. Sorry. LOL
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Nov 27, 2006 5:36pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Skyhr,
On pin bars, I tend to look at them as a mini-head and shoulders pattern. If that helps??
When James (post #34) says "if the 3rd bar can't take out the 1st by a pip or two" he may may be talking about the CLOSE of the 1st bar . Which kind of signifies the start of the neck line if you imagine the flow of trades that got you that shape, if you understand what I'm saying?
For the record, I've never noticed that sentence before and registered it, hopefully someone else does clarify their experience with that one. I think I understand though. Most of my pin bar trades have been breaks of the low or high (of the pin bar itself, depending on a bearish or bullish pin) , which of course means that close has been taken out anyway.
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Nov 30, 2006 10:55pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
NUMBER 3000. ITS A PROUD DAY FOR ME. I LOVE THIS PLACE. TOOK ME ALMOST TWO YEARS BUT I MADE IT. 
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On ya dude.
And 99% quaility posts to boot!
Especially when you see some people hit 200 in the first month. LOL
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Dec 1, 2006 6:44pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlowder
I've run into this situation before when a pair starts a strong run. Would the circled bars be considered a DBLHC, indicating a buy situation (off of the support lines) or a TBL? I put in a buy, thinking it was the former but ended up getting stopped out. Did I misinterpret the chart or is this just one of those cases where the trade just wasn't meant to work out?
Thanks,
Jason
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Hi Jason,
I don't know what others will have to say, but in situations where the price has had a sudden drop, like what preceded your DBLHC, you have to be careful that you aren't playing the "pause" or retracement before it continues. It happens on all time frames. Look back through your charts and you will see it happen time and again. The retracement will often be at least to the 23.6% fib before continuing on.
In fact, in this case you could have played the BREAK of that Double Bar Low. A really good trade BTW.
It may take a little while to get a feel for some of these common movements that will act as guides to some trades. (I'm still absorbing different formations myself!)
That formation/pattern was one of the first I picked up. It's one of the easiest trades you can make. Play the break of the low. BUT on lower time frames watch out for stop hunting , which often gives you a fake-out. Run close stops once you are in profit. You tend to get a feel for the fake moves after a while.
,Bundy
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Dec 5, 2006 7:01pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Westie
expensive, is that some kind of joke, i didn't think it was april 1st?
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It can be if you can't afford it. A lot of people have mouths to feed ahead of stuff like subscriptions. No-ones twisting anyones arms to make them stay subscribed.
I loved the info there, but I'm out for the moment, have other priorties like utility bills etc. 
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Dec 12, 2006 5:33pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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PipBirds post,
Noticed this yesterday on the 4hr chart.... Currently bouncing off of the 200 EMA (red line, of course.) Waiting for it to break free before doing anything. Though that double top is promising!
,Bundy
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Dec 17, 2006 2:33am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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I came accross other pictures you posted a while ago at some point. Man, from memory your younger kid has your wifes eyes big time!
Merry xmas mate, and to all others who read this! 
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Dec 20, 2006 4:00am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Boyz, I've tried one trade earlier and stopped.
Look at the price action on cable.
I think this is one of those times of year where the big boys get to play with us!
Besides, the current chart doesn't sit well with me at all. I think it's time to crack open those Xmas drinks and enjoy!!! 
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Dec 20, 2006 5:03am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
Shorting to our long entry point. Pullback to the trendline.
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I like that one. 
I might enter a long if it bounces off of that trend line.
I'm not comfortable trading any other scenario at the minute. The markets choppy on the pairs I'm watching.
...well at least to me!! LOL
...hmmm... maybe a Scotch and ummm.... flat coke.... might do the trick. (  )
Government Wallet Health Warning: Don't drink and trade.
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Dec 20, 2006 8:32am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
Pivot Points are like S/R points. For some reason, price is attracted to these points. Probably because the big boys use them, or probably because it's the most used system out there.
The way I understand it, if price opens above the pivot point, you look to buy, and if price closes below, you look to sell. But I've noticed that price usually tests the pivot first before taking off ... well, not always.
Maybe someone that uses a Pivot based system can shed some more light on this.
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The safest way to trade pivots seems to be retests.
GoodThings,
At the bottom of this post is a chart, showing the power of these pivot levels. This is for yesterdays price action on Cable and is based on the pivot been calculated at 22:00GMT.
Some days pivots just won't work like this, but NO WAY is the below price action just a fluke. It follows the levels and reacts almost to the letter.
LOOKING AT THE CHART:
Beginning of the day --- After a slow drifting Asian sesion that had seen Cable fail to break up through the main Pivot we come to...
Point "1" --- where the Euro and London sessions kick off.
There is a Bullish Outside Candle that, for the fist time that day, ignores the pivot level and begins a possible bullish move. This is followed by a large Bull Candle.
It would have been nice if we'd had a return to the pivot for a safer entry, but in this case it just didn't happen. Things happened relatively quick. If I was watching at the time I'd have bought at the close of that large bull candle, just from experience in knowing it was a good solid move.
Moving on though...
Point "2" --- would be a good take profit level.
The strength of pivots and there ability to act as decisive reversal levels makes them a perfect spot to take some profit off of the table. The Solid Lines in my chart are the classic pivot levels calculated from pivot formulas. The dotted lines are mid-levels (often named M1-M2-M3-M4. ...but beyond the scope of what I'm showing you here.)
-- Notice how the preceding candle peaked through, but closed at the pivot, indicating sellers got on board thinking there would be a reversal (or "pivot" of price) here. We have our retracement to the pivot, which is respected, showing possible support for a continued move up. The next bar failed to break the previous high and as a consequence we got ourselves a Double Bar High waiting to be broken. ....A long trade addition could be taken at the break of this DBH (as a bonus. And the break came quickly too!) ...The next profit target being....
Point "3" --- Where we take some more profit again and we keep an eye on the price action to decide our next move.
A few bars after point "3" there is a swing low "pin" bar (or hammer) that co-incides with a mid-level. When I've traded moves like this I have trailed my stops against support areas like that . A few pips below the pin would have been good (Once price had moved up away from the pin again) The pair has already moved through two pivot levels, I already consider that a good move. Anything else is a bonus. Another tactic is to trail just behind the previous pivot level (previous solid line). ...that would have kept us in the trade for this day.
I'd be out at the break below this point , though.
Point "4" --- I've marked point 4 to illustrate another good entry oppurtunity as described by Habeeb. ...Waiting for a retrace to the pivot before entering. I've learnt to get in later at a worse price and play the break of the peak rather than risk the return being an actual reversal. ...For now . Still learning. I wouldn't have been awake to take that trade and it's the wrong time of day anyway.
Don't trade like this. I only know a handful of setups so far myself that I trade. You have to study them for a long time. There's a lot of the "Language" or technique to learn before attempting this. I intend to get a better understanding over time, but I'd rather continue on with larger time frame charts and techniques (Playing daaily pins etc), and using pivots mainly for fine tuning profit points etc.
Hope this helps...
, Bundy
Last edited by bundyraider, Dec 20, 2006 8:48am
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Dec 20, 2006 9:02am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gnspdr33
great job on how pivot points apply, but i couldn't help but notice you seem to have an indicator for metatrader to plot your pivot points. i am able to do so on v-trader but not metatrader. do you mind sharing.
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Pivot Indicator as per above post.
Make sure you grab the version that's a few posts into the thread (V1-41)
And, if you can, direct any questions regarding the indicator to that particular thread or PM me.
Cheers,
B
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Dec 20, 2006 4:52pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
excellent post bundy, i keep going to write bunny instead not sure why i keep donig that lol
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LOL... Yeah, I've noticed. Always get's me a belly laugh.
Check out the confluence now.
For those watching Cable....
It's reacting to the trendline, as Habeeb pointed out. (Thick black line)
The main daily pivot is there.( Dark grey square-ish line)
The 150 EMA is there.
And to top it all off, it also co-incides with the 38.2% retracement.
On the 1 hour chart, as shown , we have now had an inside bar with following price action that's looking bullish. 
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Dec 20, 2006 5:42pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lamdun
wow, thanks a lot. Good thing i came here first before putting in an order. And I would like to move away from indicators. What should i use? pivot points and fib retracements? One thing that I don't get is which two points i should use for the retracements.
thanks alot!
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In regards to pivots again and my posted screen shots. It's best to not have all that information sitting on the screen at once. It can casue you to freeze and not take trades just because you think there is a possible wall in your way. You can trade without them.
There are more important concepts to grasp first.
Starting out you need to take in what James has been teaching right from the start of this thread, as Mike pointed out.
I'm sure James16 would suggest that you keep things as minimal as possible.
Somewhere he does mention that he just uses the main pivot line, anyway.
For the record, I have my screen split into four windows. ONLY ONE shows those pivot lines ...on a 15 minute chart. (it's also the only one with indicators at the bottom!!)
All the rest are succeeding higher timeframes, naked, with as little clutter as possible.
,Bundy
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Dec 20, 2006 6:16pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Onya Habeeb! Spoil it for me!!
That case for bearishness looks good too. LOL
Looking to take half profit at 61.8%/ Main Pivot area...
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Dec 20, 2006 6:40pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Out of trade. Don't like it.
I'll see what happens later.
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Dec 20, 2006 8:21pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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As MoneyBags pointed out, there is a Pin on the daily chart for GBP/JPY.
Here's the chart with a few of my observations...
The pair's been happy to make the 61.8 Fib expansion (of the yellow A-B-C move) and the daily pin looks to set us up for a short trade.
The dark green dotted line is the 38.2% ret. level of the Pin bar itself and the pair seems to be finding resistance at this moment in that exact area.
First target I'll be looking for here is the purple line. A confluence of the 38.2% fib and resistance come support from a previous peak.
Another chart to follow...
EDIT: By the way, there is MACD divergance on the 4 hour.
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Dec 20, 2006 8:28pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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GBP/JPY 15 Min chart.
We've topped out at the same level 3 times now.... a confluence of the daily pivot and the 38.2% retracement area. I've entered on the close of that marked pin. 1 Lot for now.
I'll see how the 1 hour and 4 hour charts look later on before adding my second lot.
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Dec 21, 2006 2:31am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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GBP/JPY Chart - 15 Min
Pretty choppy on the 15-min (chart shown). Typical of a thin market (Xmas parties  ). I had a limit order to sell at 232.94. Missed by 2 pips! LOL
Waiting to see how the the 4 hour bar closes out at London open. May get a pin. We already have a pin on the 1-hour. Promising, but no cigar yet. 
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Dec 21, 2006 3:57am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb

Can't seem to get rid of this cough. Hey Bundy, what worked for you?
I think I'm gonna breakfast now.
SweetDream$$$
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That cough I had?? ...man that was the most persistant one I've ever had.
What'd I do? ....LOL... waited it out.  ....bloody thing. Tried a few different mixtures. ....constant sucking on caugh drops / butter menthols was all I could do.
Sticking to the 4-hr chart for this pin trade. Anything lower is scary! 
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Dec 21, 2006 7:00am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
Holy moly, GJ just dropped down 90 pips from that retrace entry and also went under the pin in a snap.....and look at EJ .....omg
Did you get in Bundy? (Hey, this also reminds me of Al...)
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Mate, I've been in for hours! ....Since around 01:00 GMT! lol
Shorted that lot at 232.64. (Pin on the 15 Min)
Just shorted the 150EMA on the 15Min and grabbed and locked another 20 odd pips!
...whew...That was greed there. I think. I didn't really think about that then.... I just "pulled the trigger" when I seen the setup!! ha haaaaah<shhhh>
...I'm tellin' ya. I'm in the zone today!!
Grabbed another at 232.94 on a limit order for the same reason you talked about a few posts back. Just behind the 61.8% fib.
Thought I missed out earlier, but it hit the order later on. ...I was naughty... I wasn't waiting for a confirming bar  . I just like to have an order sitting there when I think we have a reversal pattern. Like you said , it's got a closer stop on it anyway.
Took 50 Pips profit on the first lot (set when I went to go visit a good mate and his family a couple of hours ago) ....stoked it's all locked in profit when I got back!!! LOL
Right now I have the "61.8 retracement" lot on break even stop (inc. spread) now and it's looking pretty sweet!
...I don't know what to do now . Originally the plan was to take a lot off at the 38.2% (231.79) , but the choppy market earlier has my brain working too hard. heh heh
My well thought out plan went AWOL , but this time I got away with it!
Actually...  ...I'm going to set my final target to that 38.2%/Support Confluence area from the original plan.
After aborting my Cable long trade earlier, the ole account's got a healthy dose today. ....bewdy!
,Bundy</shhhh>
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Dec 21, 2006 7:30am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
You go boy
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Don't think I have any of that "Go" left.  :
I'm knackered. Time for bed...
Too busy tomorrow to trade too. ....damn XMAS break-up BBQ.
Beers, BBQ, Sun....
hmmmm....  ....actually, that's a good thing! Heh heh heh
...Best of luck and good trading for the NY Session people.
Cheers,
B
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Dec 21, 2006 8:32pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags
Speaking of Inside Bars, we got an I4B on the EURCHF Daily today.
This could possibly break to the short side and start a reversal.
Anybody play these setups?
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I'm pretty soft when it comes to IB4s. Have only traded a handful. I've marked out on my own chart what I think will be a valid trade this time
DON'T ANYONE DO THIS: This is an experimental DEMO trade for me.
Sell Limit order 1.6040 (for a reversal near 61.8%)
With stop-loss at 1.6056
Targetting 23.6% fib (and maybe the 150) from larger move. 1.6009 (+ spread ...-ish) for first half of position. Rest to break even once hit.
...Let's see what happens. I most likely won't be here so I'll have to look at it afterwards. 
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Dec 22, 2006 2:25am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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MoneyBags' Daily I4B on the EUR/CHF pair...
We have a Tripple Bar High with a lower close on the 1 hour.
Edit: With a little bit of creative license, this was at the 50% retracement.
Waiting for a retracement to enter. (Somewhere around Purple horizontal line)
...This might mean missing the trade. ...But you miss any chance of a loss too, so who cares. LOL
Maybe on this time frame and so few pips risked you'd just enter on the close??
,Bundy
Edit: All those equal highs give as a strong tight stop we can use. A few pips above (plus spread) 
Last edited by bundyraider, Dec 22, 2006 2:46am
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Dec 22, 2006 2:36am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Hmmmm.... Green horizontal lines gone! LOL
...anyway, somewhere around that purple one!!
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Dec 22, 2006 5:26am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Later on...
We've hit the entry price at 1.6027 (Purple Line)
Stop was @ 1.6041.
...Stop looks like it's not very close, but that's just the time frame we're on.
First profit target I've set up as 1.6007. Only a 23% line.
I'm off to the pub. HEH HEH HEH (...come on! I'm allowd to! It's XMAS!!!!)
The rest will depend on price action... If I'm here 
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Dec 22, 2006 8:46am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
Are you legal yet?! 
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Yeah mate. For years!
Speaking of, though. ...Just called it a night. Early. 12:30. Walked home (only 5 mins from pubs... oh... How convenient!!! LOL ) ...anyway... two kids come up to me asking for a light. Talked. Turns out they're just finnished 6th grade. Here they are with two big bottles of coke with bourbon in them. Off their nut!!
That's so young. Didn't give them a lecture or anything. What's the point?? 
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Dec 22, 2006 5:59pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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GoodThangs,
The reason you're not finding the same divergence on the 1-hour is because you are trying to find it in the eaxact same period. (date/time to date/time)
Divergences show a slowing in momentum.
Check the chart out below.
If we are using the standard MACD settings (12,26,9) we are finding the Moving Average Convergance Divergance between a 12 period EMA (light blue line on price chart) and a 26 period EMA (orange line). MACD is just making it easier to see the difference between those EMAs (the 9 setting is a moving average of the that difference).
What am I getting at?
(example using uptrend divergence)
MACD Divergance tells us that the shorter period price action (12 EMA) isn't moving away from the longer period price action (26 EMA) as quickly as it did during the LAST peak. Which is significant isn't it?
So whats that got to do with the price of eggs in china?
To find that exact same divergence on the Daily chart that you did in the 4 hour chart you would have to devide those MACD EMAs by 6 (6 x 4 =24 , of course)
On that Daily chart try MACD (2,4,3) ...the 3 is just a faster setting to suit the smaller EMAs , it's irrelevant to what I'm showing.  :
When looking for divergence on your different time frames you aren't supposed to be looking for the same information. You should be trying to find what's happening in the larger picture for instance.
I'll post another chart in the next post.
,Bundy
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Dec 22, 2006 6:02pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Weekly GBPCHF
WELL WELL, look at this ...We have divergence forming on the weekly chart!
Couldn't have found a better example there GT. You've made it easy choosing this pair.
I've left the original yellow lines from your chart to show the 4 hr divergence
Obviously the pink ones are the new ones. 
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Dec 22, 2006 6:23pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Actually, it's probably a little premature calling it divergence on that weekly chart. It needs to play out a bit more.
And sorry if I re-hashed any old info there. I found it easier to do the whole MACD post from a beginner perspective. Made it easier to think and write about. 
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Dec 22, 2006 6:45pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goodthings
So now what we keep watching it keeping in mind (as james said) price action and s/r
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Yes, for sure...
We have possible warning that things are loosing upside momentum. The price action is beginning to agree too. Notice this weeks bar has a way smaller range than the past four and in candle speak is also a "Spinning Top".
It's position is the beginning of the bearish Evening Star pattern. If the next week closes a good distance into the bar prior to the spinning top we are looking pretty good for a solid short.
In "Bar" speak I don't know what you'd say. Came close to being a pin I s'pose.
You HAVE to use PA etc like James16 said . Sometimes the divergence will carry on longer than you expect through multiple peaks. Entering on divergence alone could get you in before that last massive accelleration in price you often get at tops/bottoms.
I love divergence. But I'm always forgetting to watch for it. Maybe as the years go by.  :
,Bundy
Last edited by bundyraider, Dec 22, 2006 6:56pm
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Dec 22, 2006 6:49pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
Merry Xmas And Bundy When Your Walking Home From The Pub Stay Out Of The Street Would You. Lol.
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 ...my short cut's through one of the darkest laneways in town too. LOL
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Dec 23, 2006 11:32pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Lol
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Dec 23, 2006 11:33pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Make that a.... 
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Dec 23, 2006 11:48pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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8th grade use to be the average. ..That was my first experience drinking too. ...3 of us sneaking around and struggling to get through 2 six packs! LOL
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Dec 23, 2006 11:52pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
im just bored now and cant trade!!
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It gets like that doesn't it!? LOL
I'm waiting for a mate to pick me up for a Xmas eve BBQ.
Filling in time by drawing my trendlines and fibs for the week ahead.
What timeframes do y'all use for swing highs/lows ???
Edit: By that, I mean for trend line anchor points.
I've been finding the 4 hour Charts pretty powerful. 
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Dec 24, 2006 12:14am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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AWE... Come on Mike!! You can't give up that easy?
I have a bottom. I'm pretty sure the last time I measured from each cheek to the floor they were at slightly different heights. 
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Dec 26, 2006 8:03pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Update on the Daily Inside bar trade from late last week.
The trade missed my 23% fib retracement by 2 Pips!!
This appears to be strong resistance at the moment, so on boxing day I moved the 1st target up 3 pips to an even 1.6010 (1.6014 with spread) and it was hit not long after. I didn't know until now though.
The other half of the position is still set with same stop-loss level. Which makes for a free trade now. I need the breathing room. If it hits my stop I'll have 1 - pip profit from the total play.
BTW, the stop level I had shown originally is my ACTUAL stop price. Because of spread, the chart shown only has to get to 1.6037 to trigger it . I screwed up the drawing there. All fixed in the below chart
Now here's greed for you.... Originally I was going to set my 1st profit target to 1.6015 (that's WITH spread) . To me that wasn't enough pips!!! So I decided to stick closer to the 23% line. ....Usually there's no problem. ...Majority of the time you will get a slight overshoot anyway. ...For me, this is all a psychological problem with trading a low volatility chart.(Or low time frames on some other pairs) There just isn't much movement to play with on this one. Especially at the moment. When I got in at 1.6027, I wasn't happy with a potential 12 pips!! LOL
As of now, I see no compelling reason to exit a free trade. All price action appears pretty much neutral. I'm entering 1.5986 as a profit target for this remaining lot. Close to the 38.2% fib line for one. But to me, I think we may head up now.
The daily chart pretty much gives us a Double Bar low to use as a break point (1 pip off). This corresponds with the blue resistance area on the 4 Hour chart below. Though I won't be putting a short order below there as there is potential strong resistance from the 1.6000 level from 12th Nov. I could set an order below that... but the next profit target is getting too close. I'd rather let the free trade roam down that way.
, Bundy
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Dec 27, 2006 7:49pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneybags
Hey Mike,
What did you end up doing with this? That almost pin bar turned into a BEOB but now the daily I see has a pin bar. (so it worked out 
Are you jumping on that short?
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I'm looking at that one too MB.
Currently have a short set for a break of the pin. Targetting the 1.5100 area for first half at the moment.
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Jan 3, 2007 6:09pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CFII
Thanks for the explanation. Sounds similar to the way some people trade pin bars.
regards,
CFII
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You'll find a lot of people playing retracements fullstop.
It's so much more satisfying getting in when the price is beginning a new squirt in your prefered direction , rather than having your heart rate go beserk when you short right at the bottom of a dip. (or go long right at the top of a peak!)
And as the boys have already mentioned, your stops are closer to boot! 
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Jan 4, 2007 7:12pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Dunno if any of you stuck with this, I should have held it longer. Only took out 55 on it but the carry trade pairs always make me weary going against
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Hey Mike,
Not trading this week, but have been watching Eur/Jpy for a good buying oppurtunity. Here's your current hold up, I'd say... Currently finding support @ Dec 27 Low. 
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Jan 4, 2007 7:17pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Doesn't show on that above chart , but that support line was good resistance back around mid december
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Jan 4, 2007 7:33pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
Hey Mike,
Not trading this week, but have been watching Eur/Jpy for a good buying oppurtunity. Here's your current hold up, I'd say... Currently finding support @ Dec 27 Low. 
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!!POP!! 
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Jan 4, 2007 7:35pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
excellent, I will be keeping my eye out as well
thanks BUNNY 
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LOL. ....I'm a bit slow. I'll find one for you one day. (see, this is where we need an Evil smiley!  )
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Jan 4, 2007 7:43pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
hahah
gonna watch for some PA around the 150 and price pivot, why arent you trading this week ?? have you had enough forex for one week  :
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Must be out of my head or something. The trend breaks I were watching were 'Muddy' , decided that since the Japs were on holiday and you lot were having a sook about some president guy kicking the bucket (  ...kidding!) it must be a bad week to trade. LOL
I'll take any good buy oppurtunity on this Eur/Yen though. May even fade a small parcel since the 365 co-incides with the 'King' 32% fib. 
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Jan 4, 2007 7:46pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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I have a confession...
I lied
Grabbing 20-pips from this support break down to the 365/ Fib conf..
It's too high a probability to miss. 
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Jan 4, 2007 7:52pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
hahaha oh bunny  :
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Don't you love it when it pauses right on your profit stop (1 pip)? 
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Jan 4, 2007 7:55pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
Don't you love it when it pauses right on your profit stop (1 pip)? 
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And yet ...she want's to continue on!!
Not that I care. This yen move may have more legs on it than we expect. It's certainly a sharper correction than recent examples. 
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Jan 5, 2007 4:44am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
yes bunny the eur/jpy also 
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Yep!
...But took advantage of the upside momentum that created your pin-ish bar on GBP/JPY.
Zooming down to the 15-min chart I just about pee-d myself with glee....
One of my new favourite formations is the rising 'W' bottom.
Where the second bottom reverses at the 61.8% or 76.4% retracement lines. (dotted yellow line is 76.4 mark)
With an inside bar formation bouncing off of this 'W' bottom, the clincher was the LONG strong Bullish bar that followed. This bullish bar was much much longer than any other bar over the last 5 or 6 hours and closed right near it's high ...a strong sign that the momentum was still there to carry me higher. Also imortant was the fact it broke the middle of the 'W' formation convincingly.
Possible trade. Found a target FIRST.
This is the dashed white line on the chart. A 38.2% line that co-incides with the next resistance area (A previous retracement point)
This pair has a 9 pip spread on my account. On a time frame like this, you have to make sure the first bus stop is a reasonable distance away to cover spread and give a reasonable profit BEFORE taking the trade.
Got in just as the long bar closed.
The price got close enough to the target for me to keep my finger on the sell button. When it stalled for a little while I got out. Profit can dissapear quick on this time frame and at this time of the day (London open). Also with NFP coming out I only wanted to take a small chunk. (One option is to take half profit and leave the rest with a break even stop. But again, I wanted out this time.)
By the time I'd drawn all the markers on the chart below the pair had already fallen 100 Pips!!! ...A perfect example of how careful and nimble you have to be on the lower time frames. ...We can't afford to hesitate and you can only trade good setups that YOU know well, setting break evens as soon as practical.
I'm still learning this game, but one thing I've figured out already is that you need to build a repetoire of trade setups that you know ABSOLUTELY INSIDE OUT.( Pins trades for example!) ...I can see the rising 'W' becoming a strong part of mine for a long time to come.
Cheers all,
Bundy
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Jan 5, 2007 4:58pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
ya, i just closed that trade for b/e and now its time to go drink some beers and enjoy the weekend.
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I comin' with.
Nahhh, breakfast time for me. ...Though the way the weather's been here this summer 'Beer O'Clock' can be pretty early. Especially on the weekend.  :
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Jan 7, 2007 10:14am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by H103EFA
Just a quick silly question
Would anyone trade the pinbar on the daily USDJPY chart.
The nose doesnt seem to be boucing of any relevant fibs or S/R apart from the pyschological 118.00
If you were to trade, would the safest be to go long above the PB high (about 119.05)?
Any comments much appreciated
H
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Not sure what others will think here, but when I looked at the lower time frames it looked like the pin may possibly be just part of a retracement before continuing down. With that in mind, I'd definitely chose the breaking method. Waiting for it to break the high of the pin.
This pair has me frozen...
The Yen corrected last week, but on other pairs the USD gave us bullish action. I'm just waiting to see if this one goes sideways to make up for the opposing actions. 
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Jan 7, 2007 11:27pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sch305ny
Thank you for the quick reply Mike! And sorry for the confusion.... Here is the GBP/JPY chart that I got stopped out. I got in the blue line for long and got stopped out at red line. Just looking at the chart now, I found the 2hr pin bar(A) before that!!! I have to be very careful when I see the combine one... If I am trading this for long the next time, I will enter the brake of the 2hr pin. What do you think?
Sawa
ps. the brake of the 2hr pin didn't make any sence to myself... hahaha I must be tired.Sorry........
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Sawa,
Somewhere in this thread James16 himself says strongly that you 'should never let a winner become a loser'.
That trade got up 50 pips (woohoo!!) before heading down.
Not all pin trades are going to be run away winners.
As soon as the trade is ahead around 30 or 40 pips, protect your capital. ...Move your stop loss to breakeven. AND IF possible, sell half of your posistion too, so that you have a locked in profit as well. If it continues up you still have exposure. If it reverses ,like it did to you above, you'll still have a winning trade behind you. Then wait for the next one. 
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Jan 7, 2007 11:29pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Beatin to it! LOL 
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Jan 8, 2007 1:07am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Was planning around that Loony trade myself. Waiting for some definite price indication here.
Todays Japanese holiday's left it with neutral price bars for hours.
Now I've just been reminded that I have a birthday dinner to go to in two hours. DOH!
Sisters. Who'd 'ave 'em hey? 
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Jan 9, 2007 5:59am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
I'm short. It's off the Daily Pivot. First target 1.2320, second the weekly pivot at 1.2284. Will look to go long afterwards.
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...and off the 200 on the Daily.
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Jan 9, 2007 8:03am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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USD/CHF... OK. Now we have a pin on the hourly. 
...At higher fib areas. (SeekingLight will love that one.  )
I've entered an order for a break low.
Stop Loss just above the daily pin.
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Jan 9, 2007 5:39pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sch305ny
hello, bundyraider. I have a question about the pin on your chart. It didn't close lower than open. Is that still pin? Of course, it is, but the tradable(reliable) pin?
Sawa
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Not the best is it? Obviously!
You know, I was going to go back and edit that post just after I posted it and mention that it wasn't the best pin. It's good to see a close below the 1st bars top, which didn't happen. Was also going to mention a couple of factors that had me worried on the chart.
On it's own I wouldn't have traded it the way it was, but if you have a strong trend line or other good resistance factors that it's bouncing off of there isn't much wrong with taking it. "When all the stars are aligned" ...LOL
I traded it based on there being a Daily pin. And I put a Stop entry order at 1.2379 waiting for that 1 hour pin to break low, and the bloody thing just touched it before rising up!! (Of course!!) 
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Jan 9, 2007 6:03pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
Since Ghostpipper asked what I meant by the .618 / .786 fib retracement failure meaning the whole Pin usually fails, here's a chart of the 1H on the usdchf that shows where you could see signs of it failing even before the daily high was surpassed.
This is just my view of things, it's not necessarily the most prudent. But if something that should have been resistance (the .618 or the .786 line) is breached and turns into support, that pretty much signals that price is now moving on past it. In this case usually to the 127.2% fib => above the daily high in any way.
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I agree with you on the degree of penetration we had. Had me nervous as well.
There was a raft of things that made me nervous about that Swissy trade...
* The pentration was a little too far. As you mentioned.
* The whole action for the past couple of days was more "sideways with a spike" than it was "exhaustion like".
* The cable chart looked indecisive, and at the time of the trade looked a little biased towards dollar positive. This and the penetration, are the main reason I was nervous.
* The 1 hour bar preceding the pin was the first decisive bar we'd seen all day. And it was Bullish!!
* I was really wanting to wait for the next bar after the pin to be a good bearish one. It didn't look "weighted" towards bearish somehow.
...I guess after all that I was just too keen to get in a trade for the week and I didn't want to put off going to bed! I ended up hitting the sack what would have been a few minutes before the end of the hour. LOL ...stupid.
We can make all sort of excuses for why the pin trade failed. In the end I noticed all the above, but still screwed up and acted on greed. There are better trades!!  :
...next time.
EDIT: Ooops! Forgot to mention the chart below.
Every successful (bearish) pin trade incorperates lower lows. ( ...or the fast ones just totally break out in the right direction!)
There has never been a down-trend of any sort at any time the past few days. The closest we came to breaking the uptrend of the past few days was a bearish bar at 0:00 GMT that was imediately followed by a Bullish outside bar that popped back to the otherside of the trend line!! (On 1 hour chart. Not the 15 min below)
Last edited by bundyraider, Jan 9, 2007 6:25pm
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Jan 9, 2007 7:29pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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<sigh>**Sigh** ...That's better. Daily Pin on Cable already giving a free trade.  </sigh>
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Jan 9, 2007 9:04pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Nah.. I go to bed pretty much when N.Y Opens most nights.
I've got to go work in an hour though. I just have access to the 'puter lots.
There are others here that always seem to be around too! LOL
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Jan 9, 2007 9:10pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
hmmm lemme think... 
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LOL
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Jan 9, 2007 9:37pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Squash
Did anyone else take the Daily PIN on cable? Any ideas on how far it might go?
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Squash,
I did. Still in. Sold half position for profit 25 pips.
I've got possible targets all over the place.
It's currently sitting on an old trendline from last month. (See my post #907 in Daily Cable Analysis thread)
If it doesn't stop on the daily uptrend line it's got a big one to get past at the 1.9150- 1.9180. area - Resistance that could become support. Which also co-incides with our first fib expansion AND the fib retracement of the whole mid-october to december move.
Closer Posabilities 9322,9306.
For now I've set my stop to break even and going to play it by ear. If it looks like turning around at any of those points I'll get out.
Habeebs pretty good at targets. Maybe he'll show up at some point. 
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Jan 12, 2007 12:13am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sch305ny
How is everybody doing? While I was suffering from stomach virus, I missed such an opportunity..... that happens, but what a shame.... Did anybody take this one? or it wasn't perfect DBLHC? there was 2 pip dif on the Low. Is that acceptable difference on this time frame? or it is too much?
Sawa
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More important was the position to this major trendline. (Yellow Arrow)
I wish I was watching this at the time.  :
Open & Close engulfed the previous Open & Close.
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Jan 12, 2007 12:31am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sch305ny
wow I did miss A trade then..... I was up at that time in the bathroom, just didn't think about to bring the lap top with me. hehehe
Sawa
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That's why the rest of here have network connections in the bathroom.
Mate. You can't miss the good ones. 
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Jan 12, 2007 12:41am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by summitfx
There's an answer for everything
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I was kinda waiting for someone to come up with something. 
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Jan 12, 2007 1:27am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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You'll have to excuse the busy chart.
I'm favouring long until we get below the grey Daily Pivot line.
The red horizontal is the Hourly 200 EMA. Which is where we are stuck at now, along with that white DeMark trend line.
No real direction yet though. Will have to see what the Euro/London start brings. 
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Jan 12, 2007 1:58am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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It's pity theres a good confluence to stop my long trade(below yellow arrow).
I'm being conservative and taking profits at 1.9498 if we get there.
Has been stuck at white 365 EMA for a few minutes now. As always. LOL
Because of this. I've set my SL to break even. Because I'ma going for a jog.
Sorry. Another busy chart. 
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Jan 12, 2007 4:19am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goodthings
Double Bar Low Higher Close on the GbpUsd
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Yeah. I wish that "News Noise" wasn't there from yesterday!  :
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Jan 12, 2007 5:36am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Goodthings,
What I mean is tThe move that started Jan 8th.
It's already reached the 100% copy. (yellow lines) Which also conincide with a lot of targets.
Makes me wonder weather it's just as likey to get there again.
I've moved my stop into profit a little now. I'm happy to walk away. I love being able to go onto other trades now. 
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Jan 12, 2007 8:48am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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I tell you what seeking one,
That fib expansion made us look like geniuses this time round. Stopped pretty much to the pip. 
For the moment anyway.
Awesome!
OK all,
No need to worship us...
...all Pip donations to "Save the Green Dots" Foundation.
Goodnight.
,B
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Jan 15, 2007 2:48am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Thought I would kick off the week going back to this post. We had a break of the resistance and now a retest as support. We have 30 mins left but this is worth keeping an eye out for. Things work best when you have a plan in your head and the pieces come together.
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And certainly a lot less stressful doing it that way!
Very well pointed out. 
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Jan 16, 2007 2:55pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by H103EFA
I have been wondering the same thing myself. I would guess that most ppl enter on a 50% retrace but views from the major players on this thread would be much appreciated.
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OK. Not a major player, but I'll enter wherever there's a good sign of a reversal. If, when zooming down on the timeframes I get, for example, a really good pin off of of the 38.2% (Or 50 or whatever) on the 1 hour chart I'll get in straight away. On the 4 huor chart is even stronger and I'll be even more confident. Especially if that pin is broken in the right direction as well. Much better again.
My favourite entry is at the higher fibs though (61.8, 76.4 area) I'll quite often get in on the any good sign that things aren't going any further. You get a tight stop anyway. Your often risking such a small amount of pips for a very much larger possible gain. SeekingLight likes this area too.
Entry for me can also depend on what the chart looks like when zoomed out.
If the daily pin came along in , say, a funny spot on the long term chart, I am a lot more cautious and will even wait for a further BUB or BEB to confirm the retracement is over.
But that's just me.
Cheers
,Bundy
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Jan 16, 2007 2:57pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by don perry
is it possible to use Candlesticks instead of bar chart? Bar takes a longer time to read
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Definetly. I even switch between the two all the time. Bars are cleaner on the chart for me, but I'll switch to the candles to get a different picture I may be missing.
A pin is just a hammer. etc... 
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Jan 17, 2007 6:44am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
But with red-flag news today, the charts could be messed up again 
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Too right!  :
I'm actually short cable already. LOL ( 1.9668)
Shouldn't be though. With USD/JPY finally making a move (down), I'm wondering if could tip the balance the other way. Yen pairs moving.
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Jan 17, 2007 7:19am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Squash
Wow I must be doing something right as I have very similar first TP's as you Habbeb. Within 10 pips. Gives me some confidence.
Bundy, just wondering if your shorting Cable on the retrace to the first eye? I thought about it with a very small amount but still scared of retrace entries on PB's.
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Nup.
I had a touch entry for daily S1 pivot, but it missed by a couple of pips.
It was in confluence with the 76.4% fib retrace of the recent down move (from yesterdays top).
When I got back to the screen it was falling down with little resistance. Pannicked in. ...Dumb-arse move!
Will probably still work out, but I hate it when I break my rules like that.
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Jan 22, 2007 8:21am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
no expert here seeking but i have quickly learned to just play these inside bars as you did. I am also in this trade on the break. Also when they IB comes back and reverse, I always make sure to reverse my position. Usually thats they real way its gonna break. Have to just forget about that first break :-P
Happy monday!
Mike
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IBs are the ones I consistently lose at. :P
...So I don't play them for now. Occasionly playing them on demo instead.
I've tried the "take the second reverse break" strategy, but maybe I just happen to choose IBs that are going to whipsaw all over the place! LOL
All I do is wait for a confirming bar to close now. Depending on how viable the trade still is. Sometimes that confirming bar goes too far for me.
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Jan 31, 2007 8:06am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
Targets for that short, including small TL Mouteki logic 
Plus that 4h EMA you know.
But if the count is correct the C down we're in should go to either FE 61.8 100 or 161.8.
I'm assuming EURUSD and USDCHF will do a similiar dance. Aiming for 1.27+ on USDCHF and < 1.2900 on EURUSD. Also 235.00 on GJ tops, weak target hit on that already.
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Seeking,
You're looking at similar lines to me.
...A little different. I drew mine using the daily chart. Also have a fib expansion right in line with the next 4 hour bars possible intersection with that trendline.
Personally I was aiming for where we are now. A direct trendline I had drawn on 4 hr. Bed time again. Not keen to hang around for these news items this week. As much as they are expected to be dollar positive.  :
Where have all the easy trades gone!!? ...I would LOVE to see a pin or bullish engulfing bar off that trend line or something. PLEASE! LOL
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Jan 31, 2007 8:36am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Why I'm not wanting to continue the short trade for now...
(I want a better trade entry somewhere else now. Another day!  )
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Jan 31, 2007 8:42am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Still struggling on same line. It's getting hit hard though. Maybe a matter of time.
Thought I'd just show how valid this particular line has been by clicking down to the fifteen minute before hitten' the sack.
, Bundy
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Jan 31, 2007 8:52am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
come on bundy I am holding don't screw my position up now  :
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Hehe. Don't you hate that!?  :
Oh yeah, and that other target happens to line up with my S3 line. So 9485 looks like an important area.
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Jan 31, 2007 5:12pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
It is a pin, but remember we gotta wait for the close. Days like today don't be suprised to see some wacky late movement! I am OUT of the market for now lol.
Best,
Mike
PS seeking we hit 600 on the same day! That has to count for some pips!
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So does that mean you guys are a correlated pair?? 
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Jan 31, 2007 5:54pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
There we go :P
Also cable is doing a 2x1h pin off Bundys TL, someone call him, quick! 
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And you didn't call me because....??
LOL. My sleep's more important at this time!
When I last posted I was tempted to buy on the trendline. (Check out this 9480 level on the mid-december chart)
Would have been nice tight stop. I love them ones!
Looks like I got my confirmation trade too!  : ...Bullish engulfing real-body off of that trendline and "so many other things" confluence.
I've been watching these realbody engulfs a lot lately (Where open and close engulf the previous open and close, for those wanting to know)
They may be really good signals in this market.
(Off of confluences etc of course!)
Marked with yellow arrow. 
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Feb 1, 2007 6:14am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habeeb
DBHLC on loonie.
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Good entry now for Habeebs baby.
Pin bar off of 150 EMA on 1 hr. (Also daily Pivot and 50% retracement.)
Personally got in as the new bar on this pic started. Just in time.
Edit: Just to clarify. The Daily Pivot isn't at the exact same level. I was just happy to see the price action comply.
It's around 7-9 pips lower than the 150, but the pin opened and closed below it.
Last edited by bundyraider, Feb 1, 2007 6:53am
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Feb 1, 2007 7:09am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmywa
its 352 am pac. time right now is this a pinbar on four hour?
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It's certainly easy on the eyes. Yes.
I don't know what others will say about it being an entry point though.
I'm happier getting in where I did above rather than by this new 4hr pin.
We are getting closer to the bottom of the daily DBHLC and are futher away from any stop positions
Anyone else?
,B
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Feb 1, 2007 7:17am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
silly bundy hes talking about the NZD  It isn't anything to rave about but its location is still on that 50% mark for a retrace entry into the daily pin. I am going to wait for the break of the pin to enter though.
Best,
Mike
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HEH HEH HEH. ...I often miss the titles of posts!
4hr pin on loony too confuses matters.  :
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Feb 1, 2007 12:15pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by parlenk
Hi all,
I took a long on us-jy based on this chart.
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Very nice!
That's a beeeeewdiful pin you got there dude!
Ima in for a little action there too.
Edit: I see there's bearish divergence on the 4 hr chart. Might keep stops roooool tight here. 
Last edited by bundyraider, Feb 1, 2007 12:30pm
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Feb 1, 2007 6:18pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
USDCAD made a PB off the 50% and nimbly nabbed my stop. I admit, it was in the worst place and at a classic "trick me out" price, but still, this is the reason I stopped bothering with USDCAD, about as predictable as a woman during high pregnancy...same applies to EURCHF for me. Oh well, live and learn. Need to get me a trailing stop broker...
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Another angle...
That pin is of the first fib expansion line. It looks like there's a pip or so gap till the line, but it's just the way it's drawn. Creating a horizontontal line to find it's value indicates the same value as the low of the reversal bar.
I was holding ,but I got out when it triggered a buy on one of James' systems.
Stop was at last months highs, and would still be held. I would rather wait for a better trade somewhere else though!  :
Also out of ParlenKs Yen trade.
Grabbed profit at the first Fib ret point. Don't like the bearish divergence. I was in late too. So, once again for me, better trades will happen than this one.
,B
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Feb 2, 2007 7:05am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
Hey Matty, that daily started the same time I started yelling out EURUSD and GBPUSD 5m,15m,30m,1h pins. But since there was a BEOB before that and on GBPUSD a bullish pin bar etc pp, I think this is just the market trying to say "I DONT KNOW WHERE I WANT TO GO"....
Trading any of these last minute setups is very likely going to be dangerous and as certain as a 50/50 coin toss.
Like already said, most likely better to wait and see what NFP will do and look at the (preferably daily? and weekly)bars after that. And no Bundy, I don't mean those with liquor :P
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DOH!!

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Feb 2, 2007 7:12am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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NFP is expected to start a new dollar bull run. Goes against some of the price action out there.
So I'm agreeing. ...Best to stay out and take in outcome of the anouncement.
I've had an excellent run this week, so I'm just going to call it for the week. I know from experience now that this is where I tend to over trade.
Have a good weekend y'all! 
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Feb 23, 2007 7:55am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
I could be getting antsy been a slow few weeks trading.
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So I haven't been missing much then? 
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Feb 25, 2007 8:02am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Wow I have been wondering where you have been? Whats up BUNNY? Hope all his well?
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Yeah mate. All is good.
Had a disasterous hard drive failure a few weeks ago.
Have been talking about having a break from all this since last October. Brain was bubbling away there, over crowded.  ...So the gods have made sure I took it this time. LOL
Kind of got an old laptop running the past few days.
I might be a bit quiet for a while yet, though. Got a busy motorsports schedule the next couple of months.
Might start watching the Dailies for a while.
...Speaking of dailies.. I4B on EurJpy boys and girls.
I don't have any pivot indicators running yet, so I don't know what confluences may be about. I can only go on price action around the other yen pairs. ...I couldn't be fagged calculating pivots manually right now. hehehe. Maybe there are supporting levels on the other pairs too??
Anyway, caio for now brown cows. 
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Feb 25, 2007 8:13am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
You missed this trade or the equivalent EJ / USDJPY one if you weren't trading and also this one 
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I like that GBPCHF one.
Quote:
Btw, I see cable took the hint and finally moved > those 180 pips weekly range hehehe....like a girl, you just got to spite and tease a little and then they wake up
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Nahhh.... until "they wake up"? Why wait ? 
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Feb 25, 2007 6:20pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Gee Jim. We'll never shut you up now!
I thought to mention Dragon to you a long while ago. Do I get a free month too?  (kidding, of course)
I use to do work for a quadraplegic about 10 years ago. Even back then it was an amazing program. This guy totally relied on it.
Now all you have to deal with is your wife thinking you've got a mental problem developing in the next room there!  LOL
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Feb 26, 2007 8:39am
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight
Attaching an EJ pic so this post doesn't remain too useless...spotted this a weee bit late, but I was more intent on finding reasons for it to go higher than looking for this sort of thing.
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Got get out of that habit man!
Think more about setups, their probabilities and likely targets, dude.
For this one I had 2 orders in. (aint I shit hot!!?  )
Jim's showed us how to play these I4Bs. They can be continution patterns OR reversals.
Not preaching dude. Just giving you that kick in the butt we ALL need every now and then! 
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Feb 26, 2007 8:04pm
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'Try-hard' extraordinaire...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
pretty soon im going to do some very basic videos for this thread. it will be in keeping with whats already here but it should help those trying to understand the simple bar formations. merlin is going to screen them so they meet forex factory guidelines. yes even james16 is under the watchful eye of the great wizard. LOL.
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I thought he'd trust you to keep those "Brought to you by Moneytec" intro adverts out?
I can see it now...
"The preceding video presentation was brought you by VIAGRA PRO... Gotta get up? ...Get down. ...to WALGREENS. For all your... ...<hohumm>... needs."
Get those videos going and this threads view count will explode fo' sho'!
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