Hello everybody .
Can somebody say which point I need find for right apply Fibo levels on daily chart or when I can read about that. Sometime it easy but sometime I can't decide , for example for GU which points be better on pic 1 , 2 or 3 ?
Thanks so much
Peter
Hi pitpiter,
Start with the monthly chart. You need to find the very obvious clean waves. For starters. Don't over do it.
Try and stay within' the waves that encapsulate your current price action if you can. Higher time frame down to lower time frame.
. AUD/USD
Anyone else notice where the daily BEOB stopped so far on the way down??
Edit:I've been eyeing the confluence above us here as a possible long target , by the way. Just look at that level!
There's actually another fib from the Yearly chart in confluence too.
I was keener on the E/U set-up than this one for this very reason. Profited on E/U too, because I wasn't greedy and didn't assume I was right.
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NOW .....will they give us more??
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I noticed you hadn't drawn a fib from the last weekly high? you'll see price is hitting the 61 fib and could bounce down off it. You can draw fibs to support or doubt any trade, I dont put alot of weight into them, like divergence. PA and S/R is much more important.
Yeah, I was trying to keep the explanation clear.
I look for verification of my fibs.
If price is forming obvious flip levels (PPZs) around a particular fib study's levels (like a monthly waves fib), that's when I give it weight in my planning. I try to erase all fib studies that have no clear evidence of influence in my charts.
Verification is important (in ALL line studies). Otherwise you'd freeze up over the multitude of possibilities.
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and to the pip almost!!
lol.. if id known you were going to post an explanation i would have left it to you!!
thanx for the PM, im sure i will be wanting MORE MORE MORE!!!!!!
lol. only joking
cheers
jon
No your examples work well in conjunction with mine. I didn't go into the types you did. So it's good to see them in two different posts.
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If you were trading the daily formation with the appropriate position size for your account there's nothing to worry about in a retracement.
This my chart as I've been watching it. (Ugly too. So I'm off to bed. ...I like cleaner "alignments.")
There's a few retrace targets there as possibilities.
If you're trading the daily , live by the daily.
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I have a question generally about expected ROI per year. If we pick good setups and trade well we are looking at say 20%-60% a year? using 1% per trade and being picky? I have been here long enough to know the 100% roi a month etc are unsustainable, however I have seen respected traders on FF quoting 300%-500% a year. So what do you guy think is reasonable?
That's reasonable.
Everyone has their own comfort zone where they can chuf along at.
400%-%500 a year? Sure people can do that. But, that one's un-reasonable. lol
The last you want to do is chain yourself to any expectations.
Just be a good disciplined trader. That's all.
Your ROI will improve over time as a side affect.
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300% return is around 12% a month I think compounding. I might be off there.
Certainly not something I can do as I'm a newb but it doesn't seem impossible, just much higher risk per trade.
It's also unlikely to be on a very large account. The larger you go the more you actually affect the market you are trading. The larger the chance you can actually miss out on fills etc.
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today i shorted the eu/us @ 135.79 (reasons not necesary) after two bars, on the 1h chart, i had to leave the house. at this point the price was about 135.60. i left my stop as it was and to be honest i thought i was going to stopped out before i got home,but anyway.i came home only to find that price had gone my way by almost 80 pips and retraced to put me a couple of pips under!!all whilst i was out!! it actually missed my TP by 2PIPS !!!! really. i was kicking most things,hehe( including my guitar for not playing solo!!lol)i then basically i...
That'll happen many many more times. lol
I picked the AU top perfectly, but went to bed without placing orders. Who cares. Next week or so I'll do the same again. I'm not worrying about a trade that could just as easily have been a waste of screen time if I'd stuck around.
I don't even have an EA as Moneybags mentions. It'd be a smart move, but doesn't help with orders on other brokers.
Other options are...
1. Split your order into two or three or whatever separates every time you enter. Allows you to set a TP on your first part. I know exactly where the first trouble spot will be everytime and if I'm going to be away (or asleep ) I'll set that first TP, or if not that, set up an SMS alert for the price level if I feel like watching it. The alert works better for setting BE.
2. Check the charts an hour or so before the main session changes. (i.e. an hour before London opens and an hour before U.S. opens and then again around NY lunch time.) Usually the End of Day is next , but things rarely move massively away from gains, from what I experience. If I'm awake I'll check again though.
Maybe those can help.
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no objection to what BJohn's comment, it is absolutely correct, giving the market of nonlinearity a frame of linear objective is no different than a trading strategy by moving average or so forth, which I gave up already.
taking whatever the market is willing to give and make oneself available is the proper way to react to any opportunity one can persue. I fully understand the point.
so, basically, I am not setting a monthly target to achieve. what I am referring to is what goal one can achieve in 5 year time, by going through monthly...
Question: What percentage return can you expect in future?
Doesn't matter.
Eventually your account will get to a size where even the smallest return in percentage terms will be a LOT of money.
James points this out often. ...About how much easier it gets when a couple of awesome trades a month is all you need.
You should just focus on your competency as a trader. Are you running your business prudently? Have you proven that you can do that month after month after month? You'll find that your results get better over time naturally.
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Second and last one I am watching tonight: cadchf daily.
Not with the trend, but after rejection of FIB 61 and 50, as well as weekly PPZ @9590.
Any thoughts?
Thanks!
Not bad
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I don't like all the FF problems lately. Having problems attaching a chart now.
Josh
The factory is under attack. It was in the blog. Some little smart ass is bombarding the server with what's called a "Denial of Service" attack . Has been happening since late last week. Eventually they'll give up.
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The daily close (7th/may) price at .8529 . and also .8500 (38.2% fib)
The rest I'll manage at the bar signal level for the moment.
That whole 8480 to 8500 level is possible but if you look back at the whole 7th of May bracket , you'll see a strong influence at .8500. This, in conjunction with the 38.2% makes it likely as a decent bounce at the least . Just my opinion, of course.
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Inside bars are tricky tricky. This one is sitting on support, but also stuck b/w two bigger levels that have been clear s/r. This pair has been choppy for a long time now making it even more difficult.
Mike
Lol. Was about to post on this too. It's trapped between two messy traffic areas.
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Its been a while since I posted so I hope you are all doing well. I am now 1 month into my initial 3 month period on daily/weekly and have not taken 1 trade yet!!! Although I did miss acouple of good ones 2 weeks ago, there seems to have been very little in the way of A+ setups these last few weeks and I must confess to being a little bit frustrated!
Anyone else finding this lack of opportunities recently or am I missing something?
Good trading all,
berti
Most of the trades I've taken lately have been for quick profits , not A+ type trades, so you're not imagining the frustrating times. Keep up the waiting Bertie.
You may have to repeat the following action for a an unknown time...
If you're not seeing anything pack up for the day and drop in again tomorrow.
I am.
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Nope never done anything like that. I have spent thousands of hours with the charts, that I know it is all about location, and now I know exactly the look of the price bars I want. For me it is such a visual habit now, I don't even realize it(pretty sick LOL).
But sounds interesting but tedious, and I am a very lazy man!
Best
Mike
Truth revealed. So the real reason you don't over trade Mike?
It's hard to trade when the "keyboard stick" doesn't reach, eh?
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Mike, out of curiosity, if you don't mind, are you ever interested in how a bar was formed? For instance, you see a daily bar, are you going to lower time frames, to see how exactly it was formed. I notice a lot of the really clean looking set ups, in terms of how the bar was formed, hold a lot of power. Whereas some of the daily trades, when going to lower timeframes, and not forming in such a clean manner, don't seem to work as well. For instance, xyz shots up during a stretch of 23 hours, completely 360 the next hour, forms a pinbar.... these...
I do this pretty much every time Jlr. I believe it makes a big difference.
It does go hand in hand with location though. For example, on a clean chart with no lines etc, I will look at an inside bar formation, head down the time frames to check it out and know from that sub-formation that the inside bar is a reaction to a trend line(or ppz etc) and is about to bounce , or in contrast, the price is just gathering up against that line wanting to break into a continuation push. Zooming back out (further to weekly monthly etc) that trendline will stick out like the proverbial ( ).
I've given a few examples of doing this over the past few years. Mainly with pin bars. The best pin bars I found were ones where the formation looks like a head and shoulder formation. Even better is when the right shoulder barely forms (shallow fib retrace) and the run from top of the head to the shoulder was very quick. Once again a contrast example would be where the pin bar is obviously just a pullback and looks more like breaking the wrong way (Or right way if you know what you're doing )
Answer to your question to Mike.... I find definite benefit in understanding the underlying price action that forms my bar. And it goes hand in hand with the location/situation it is taking part in.
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I was very surprised to hear that your win rate is in the upper 60%, because you are so picky about your entries. I imagined that your win rate would be closer to 90%. Is this because you aim for higher R:R and/or do not move your stop to BE quickly.
Pricey is on to it.
There are two major options. As you probably realise....
High win rate low targets.
Low win rate higher targets.
A rookie mistake to forget that sometimes, but you need to realise that the 60% method NEEDS picky entries. It's the super picky entries that have the "large run" potential.
I'm not comfortable saying "NEEDS picky" is exclusive to that method of management, as you should always be picky. But you really need to be ultra-conservative when aiming for those long-run trades. Some can go on for weeks/months and give returns well beyond the 1 : 1 risk. ...but you can pay for it in the win rate, which a lot of people struggle to cope with and lose their patience.
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Then you'll realise why RR1:5 with 60% win rate is not needed.
Oops. I probably started that by labelling the different styles by percentage win rate earlier today.
Just a bit unthoughtful.
My intentions were to point out that going into the "long run" slash "have faith in your original stop" style, NEEDs you to be very picky. Otherwise you will more than likely be negative ROI .
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I have been thinking about this post, and I am going to change my method to doing that, its a minor thing to change for me. Be aware of areas of s/r (weekly Horiz S/R or PPZ, 50,61,76 fib, 365,150,60 ema), then as price approches these areas look for good PA. Before I was looking for PA then looking for S/R to support but I can see now it can lead to imagining S/R thats no there. Thanks TotalNewbie, you should change you name now I think.!
Regards
Mark
Yes Yes! On ya!
It also means you can set alerts and not watch the screen as much while out of trades.
Plan the areas and wait. Also try and see past the immediate PPZs and look for the one that'll give you the highest chance of success that's often not much further away.
Example:
"If I don't take this bearish pin of this ppz and then wait for the PPZ just above that's in confluence with a consolidation bottom from earlier in the week ,AND a deep fib retrace too, I'll have a pretty good chance of going immediately into profit."
You should see how many cool looking pins (etc) I let go by and see fail ( as I suspect they will too), all because we aren't at the final destination yet. I mean ignoring REALLY good PA bars. No kidding.
It'd be good if I had an example of my staged planning on the charts, but I haven't seen anything special, unfortunately. Maybe next week.
We say it again and again and again..... LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION!!!! ...and you'r getting it.
EDIT: OK , found an example , I'll post it the next 10 min or so (bet it takes longer. )
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Ok. Seriously I had all these lines on the chart before they were reacted too. Most derived from a close price "low or high" somewhere.
For clarity of explanation I've removed some EMAs, a pivot indicator and fib studies.
Top light blue line bar high trend line from 1 hour. (not respected very well 3 hours ago. ...Yes this is a <GASP> ...five minute chart!!! )
Top dotted yellow horizontal line is minor PPZ that's closest to lining up with those yellow trend lines of a) close price 1 hr trend line. b) Bar lows trend line (bottom one).
Solid yellow horizontal is the one I wish everything else lined up with. (...DAMMIT!!) If the trend lines were hit around the white arrow, a fib lined up, a daily pivot line lined up and so on I'd sell a small amount right on the that line without PA confirmation. This would be starting the positions in a longer term trade.
BUT they don't line up. ANYWAY>>>>
From swing low.....
Hits pink line..... Too shallow a retracement. This is a trend reversal trade I would be looking for here (in the bigger picture) so I don't want my stop THAT far away from the top of price chart (mainly that light blue disrespected line).
If it were a with-the-trend continuation move it'd be more likely a candidate.
Darker purple horizontal.... First real candidate. IF it lined up with trend lines or something. It doesn't . So it was just expected to be a road block.
On a higher time frame I'd consider going counter - to my trade idea and put a buy limit at the pink line below again. It it were cleaner though. I'd do this because the price I'm looking to go short at is a magnet. To me, because we are reversing, a long is still a pretty high probability trade. ...I'm getting side tracked. Anyway MANY traders SOOOO want to hit those trend lines up above ....And EXPECT IT. We aren't happy until it does.
Yellow solid horizontal.... Once again... "DAMMIT!" ...Why don't it line up with all the others!!?!! ...haha... This is the good level to go short. But we're still not satisfying a whole group of people who won't do anything until they see it hit the trend lines. Soooo..... not a bundy trade today. NOW sometimes I do enter.... but shouldn't . ...So , yes, I break the rules and end up regretting it and killing it with a small loss. ...Not this time though... Not most times. And I get better at saying no as time goes by. And my ROI improves as a result.
Got a second chart I'm adding to this right now. (because of the timing right now as I'm typing. lol )
On second chart.... We've hit the blue trend line. but damn it... those yellow ones are so tempting for everyone. ...So many traders sitting on the fence . .....And then whole trade idea get's screwed... Because now we have broken that blue line. Which negates a whole bunch of trading peoples ideas for a short. ...everything falls apart.
Many people want it to hit the yellow trend lines now. (Like near the Red 'X' or something) , but then after that we've broken the blue, as mentioned, so now we could get a long bounce off of that. We go long. Short Long Short. Or consolidate.... MESSY. We HAVE no space.
This could go on and on. ....AND ALLL BECAUSE THE CONFLUENCE IS ALL F___D UP.
So confluence rocks. It's good. Very good. When it's not there it cause these problems. Bwahhhahahaa!!
So people....Plan your locations..... LOCATIONS LOCATIONS LOCATIONS.
WAIT for the best.
Had enough of this typing. :P
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This is a little beyond my comprehension abilities right now, but really great stuff. Definitely saving this, ty bundy
Oh man, it's beyond my comprehension abilities too. Just read my own post. What a mess!
You might be able to decipher it in time.
It would be soooo much easier doing a video for things like this. (mike? )
You know what? I totally didn't cover the original intention either! ...What a crack up!
When the next good example comes up (this time with GOOD factors that I intend to trade) I'll do a proper example post. And on a higher time frame too. That one just unfolded too quickly for me to post along with while cooking etc! lol
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Thanks. So are you saying for example, if you are trading daily TF....
Zoom out to the weekly or monthly charts and draw your major PPZs only. Then wait for PA to hit those areas and look for rejection or breakout and retest? Then possibly drawing minor PPZs to manage the trade?
Along those lines. Yes. Not exactly what I was getting at in that particular post though. But you're right about narrowing it down further. And looking at those higher time frames is a key ingredient.
What I was talking about can be done for all time frames.
Look, it just comes down to confluence. Find the REALLY strong PPZs and wait for everything to line up with them rather than taking every pretty pin or inside bar just because it's hit a minor PPZ that just happens to line up with a fib. (I also use Trend line breakouts / pullbacks, so I get real excited when these line up with a major PPZ too)
You can make money off of the minor PPZs (with ok confluence) , but it's making things harder for yourself, since they tend to be the ones where you have to cover yourself real quick. If you always wait for the super strong PPZs, making money can be like aiming a shotgun into a barrel of fish.
And you'll know when your choosing the right levels....
....They will be the trades where you seem to shooting off into profit almost immediately after entry (bar count wise).
When that's happening on most of your trades, then you are doing a good job of waiting for the best opportunities.
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This is probably a silly question as I should simply go by what I see on my charts but....
When we're looking for "big round numbers" we always say 1500, 3400, 2800, etc. But I swear when I draw my S/R lines on a lot of pairs it always seems PA happens more around say 1550, 3450, 2850 etc.
Now of course I realize these are zones and not exact points but, is it still considered a "round number" if it's a xx50 instead of xx00?
Just curious as on most pairs I follow, the xx50 seems to be more the center of the zone....
You're not seeing things. I watch 50 too.
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Thanks jarroo,
I did not see it as a strong s/r. Perhaps, not experienced enough myself.
Look at it a different way.
You need to mark out all those possible problems that are close to your entry. 'Possible' being the key word. No trade you ever enter is a certainty. (NO trade.) But you can gain an advantage by entering trades where there is a clean run into your first "management point" , as I like to call them.
Those multiple bar lows weren't guaranteed to cause problems, but with experience you'll come to see them as an important part of the location and space part of your analysis.
If we got past those lows the next point was the highs, of course.
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jarroo,
what's your take on this: some traders in FF avoid posting their trade entries/exits as they are wary about the trade failing due to "trade manipulation/copying or whatever" by those who get to see the post
U, on the other hand, seem to be cool with it (not to mention successful like several here). Why?
As always, i'm inquisitive. Thanks!
Some people are paranoid about brokers. lol
It's usually themselves getting in the way.
For the record, I can't handle posting anything but the best of my trades for a different reason. ...It changes how I approach the published trade. Doesn't work for me. Something to do with the need to be "right" is what I deduced.
Jaroo on the other hand does a great job of it.
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bundyraider,
i expect yours to be more advanced than that.
jarroo,
, i dont' believe u. i expect yours to be more than that.
C'mon you two, i'm still .....
I've got a computer stacked in the corner with no screen half the time that runs 24 hrs and does my alerts. (email to SMS)
....And my trusty notebook. Nothing special.
If I was in a better time zone I'd probably rush to something fancier, but I check the charts periodically. Don't need multiple screens. ...Most of the time.
I plug in an external monitor into the notebook as a second screen when I'm watching stocks. That's about it.
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But as is said the lower the time frame the less significant PA bars become surley there is a point where they are meaningless, I would say anything under 5 mins is at that point, and anything under 1 hour you need to be picking great bars.
In forex mostly yeah. James pointed it out a little later though... depends on the market.
Some futures charts you can't even trade below daily , and on a couple you have to use the weekly!
In many markets , at times, you can trade down to the "count the fingers on one hand" tick charts at the right time of day in the right location and the bars are TOTALLY tradable/usable.
When you understand the underlying price movements , trading even the bare price movement chart tick-by-tick is possible. And lot's of fun! (When all the right conditions line up.)
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Thanks for that one Jim, 100% what I needed in my current state
I seen your original post, and the great answers people gave to it.
I think your were danger of going down a dangerous path when you questioned whether this was going to make you rich quick enough. You know that too, which is good.
What's the famous saying? : "Money makes money and the money money makes makes money. "
10000 still can only make safely what 10000 can make safely. And so on. ...But it will grow and become increasingly profitable. Not many jobs can make that claim.
I see you travelling along very well with your trades so far. Just let the progress happen.
And by the way, there are times when there are a lot more daily trades happening. I know you questioned that too. There's been periods over the past few years with more quality trades per month or two for sure.
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At first glance, i thought u made 2 errors in that sentence. It was sort of a tongue twister also, which is great too.
Is that a famous saying in your side of the pond? 1st time i've heard of it & i like it.
Like i said to krue, sometimes Slow is Fast.
AS ALWAYS, u shower us with golden bundy nuggets.
"Golden Bundy nuggets." lol
I couldn't tell you where the saying came from, but I love it. And no, it's not just from this side of the pond.
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Hi Kean,
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. So when someone asks "should I take this bar?" the answer really has to take into account how you manage it. Mike would turn down a bar that jarroo would take simply because of the way they both manage their trades.
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Yep.
Awesome post too Tia. You've explained it pretty well.
...and ...I think my notebook fan just said "Goodbye cruel world!" ....<snif> <snif> ....and that smell doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling either. Better shut down now eh? lol
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I'm not trying to be antagonistic, but when someone is connected to a commercial venture, and they never post any losing trades, I become extremely suspicious of both them and the commercial venture.
What commercial venture??
It'd be a big ask if I told you to read back through Racs posts nowadays. There are too many. But you wouldn't have your doubts if you could manage to do that. He has explained his reasons for posting late in the past. As proof of his ability you'll find many here successfully copying his trade style and posting real-time.
Welcome to the thread anyway Sanook.
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I see, this is your first post on this thread... without introduction and already having negative tone.
Hang around here, get us to know you better, then put some effort to go back and read some of my post here that touch on psychology and perhaps you'll find your answer. Changing your attitude can materialize in form of more positive pips in your account as well. You can drop your suspicion and trust me on this one.
I like how Ikki vindicated what I said in your defense by posting another successful Rac style trade straight after my post.
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(And btw, my screenname had people sending me flirty messages when I first started on here. Before they realised I was a man. It's actually an acronym of my first name and my business partner's first name.)
Aaron
LOL. I actually read it as "Thanks In Advance FOREX!!!"
I don't blame any female posters for going gender neutral names. Every time a new female poster introduces themselves here (the obvious ones) every guy in here jumps through hoops to help. I think it's a crack up. lol
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Funny you said this, when I 1st started out my last mentor said the same thing, he also said that Doctors and Engineers have the HARDEST time to trade due to it not being the same thing everytime and they don't have a exact way to do it, teachers also have a hard time as well he said.
There's a 3 part documentary called "Million Dollar Traders" I watched on the net the other day. It involved a group of 8(??) people plucked from all walks of life and put in charge of various parts of 1 million pounds for a couple of months (or more).
The calmest trader was female. By a long shot.
I've read and heard this many times about females being more likely to be naturals at trading. Guys have to 'kick arse' all the time. We the man!! ...we ALL know how this works against us. lol
Mark Douglass mentions the doctor, lawyer, engineer thing a few times too and it totally makes sense.
I think, by pure coincidence it was also run during the beginning of the meltdown too. lol
Check it out anyone who cares. It shows all the human traits we have all come to love in trading(ok...maybe not love. ).
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Raczek made this point too and said that in his little group of traders, farmers do the best.
I will back that up...
As a technician in a rural area, I use to see this all the time.
Being into trading I'd often get into conversations with them about their trading. (I'd be out to fix a modem connection for them or something that stopped them trading. )
Farmers, in general, know how to run a business and their trading more often than not is an extension of the rest of their business. They also know how to think 'long term'. They have to.
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Noticed that on the daily and 4hr. Take a look at the monthly.
K.I.S.S.
Yep. Not watching much other than daily, weekly, monthly at the minute (...haha...get it? ...at the 'minute' ...just noticed that. lol). My fibs on that chart are monthly based.
Will be nice if we get a pin. Who can say "The good pins are often like mini Head and Shoulder patterns"? Anyone??
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Imagine a girlfriend who gets as excited as you about a perfect pin bar in loads of space.... Can there be a bigger turn on?
haha
I learnt pretty quick not to talk about trading around most women I meet when they ask what I do.
After the first couple of times of seeing their eyes glaze over, I quickly realised it's about as exciting to them as a rice cake in a chocolate cake contest.
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and some of the people I've had to explain what I am doing to....
I had to read that one again. Can be read two ways. lol
I've said the "Buy and Sell money" thing a couple of times. Someone had a really good one somewhere. Darkstar maybe? Something about "other countries".
I just know that saying "I trade the Forex market" You may as well say "Ib glob da oomux mar bub" ...That forex word just isn't a part of many peoples vocabluaries.
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Having seen little discussion of the management of IB trades, would like some advice on taking IB trades and what to look out for.
Once your in the trade you use all the same rules you would for any other set up. Mark out your PPZs and any spot where there is a potential stumbling block to your trade.
Choosing which IBs to trade is the key (of course. lol). Don't just trade an IB because it's there. The good ones tend to be hard against a PPZ, trendline and so on where the safest way to enter is on a good break of that particular S/R point.
Like what Mike mentions with placing his buy/sell orders on the other side of a round number, same goes for trading an IB. Careful of a pure break unless it has good room to move into profit. Place your order wisely. Usually on the other side of that S/R point you are watching with your plan.
With IBs you need a plan. There aren't that many IBs that have a good potential trade on both sides of the IB. Usually there is an overwhelmingly better trade choice in one particular direction. If it goes the other way , you move on, staying flat.
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Having seen little discussion of the management of IB trades, would like some advice on taking IB trades and what to look out for.
Example....
EURCAD (4hr)
Where the preference is a long, even though I suspect a possible retrace to the pink trend line first. BUT the long is the potentially better plan to me with the positioning on the daily chart and the fact it's on top of that 38.2% fib.
See how any short trade would want to break not just the previous inside bar but the one before that? ...Because of the positioning and the IMPORTANT level it all rests on.
It's (the first IBs) low is just south of that 38.2 line. So I would choose a break of that level (1.5959) (or even a break of even 10 pips lower because of the "50" 'half handle'.
This is all the same stuff you would do when entering a pin etc. No need to be scared of IBs. But do practice them first to learn the ones to take. Just like the other bar formations.
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What do you use to mark PPZs? Just horizontal S&R? Or a Pivot Point calculation / indicator?
Both. And all.
I like the ones that line up with LOTS of confluence. I also tend to look for PPZs that are started by a close price swing high/low on higher time frames. i.e. by using a line chart.
It's good to see them land on a round number too. That's relatively new for me though. ....Makes it more of a no brainer then.
I use floor trader pivot points when trading intraday. But ignore them (and often any trade) if they are totally out of whack with every other level the chart tells me to watch.
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eh well, my problem's the opposite. I start talking about charts and technicals, and all the guys give me a wide berth.
interesting conditions we're having on the current markets.
Yeah, well I get the response from a some guys too. lol
The current market conditions are good, in that they eventually give us a lead in to some kind of excellent set up. That's how I see it right now. We are about to get some good trade set ups out of this frustration. We just don;t see it clearly yet.
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This one has annoyed me.
It did exactly what I expected it to after yesterdays bar, but I didn't trade it as there wasn't a specific entry trigger.
Even the big fella himself posted a similar story a day or so ago. We can have a pretty good idea of what will happen , but if the trades not good, for whatever reason, no need to shotgun it...
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It's a big step once you can pass on the good setups, watch them work and not feel like you missed it. Only take the Great setups. I'm hopefully getting there...
Josh
Nice.
I'm jealous. I like those types of set ups.
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I would have to check with Dale on that. But I think its a pretty strict formation. If it doesn't seem right, as with all PA, it's an easy pass. Yes, on the Daily and Weeklies too.
You'd be wanting a "winding up" look to them wouldn't you?
That's be my take on it. Like Jim's "Pyramid on it's side" analogy for the good i4bs etc.
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Ghous...how come everytime you pick a blind entry the bar closes a pin!!??this eu/us looks the same story!?
did you borrow Racs crystal ball or what!!??
jon
Ahhhhhhh! The magic of reading S/R like a book.
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I'm starting to worry about the intellectual levels here on this thread, Since 2007 no scientific body of national or international standing has maintained a dissenting opinion about global warming caused by humans. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scienti...climate_change
You have to ask yourself are you going to believe a couple of traders worried feeling guilty about their gas guzzlers and pissed off about being taxed or 99% of the scientific world.
This is obviously not a good subject for the thread. And to question the intelligence of people in here based on their opinion is aggressive.
And 99% of the scientific world?? ...Don't you mean 99% of the scientists who get paid for fields related to climate change?
The smartest path is an open mind, so as not to be taken advantage of.
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Here is a lesson for all. People generally are doing the best they can. They have stress and pain in their likes (if we only knew) and then they have to tell a plane load of people that their flight is canceled. Ugh. That hurts them bad.
I have habitually been sweeter than grandma's cherry pie when faced with cancelations. I understand that this makes me a breath of fresh air to those poor tortured souls working for the airlines. It also makes me feel good.
The rewards are beyond that though. Last night our ATL to LGA leg was First Class for...
Yep.
Example: While everyone else is complaining about the slow service, I habitually return my own (and my parties) glasses to the bar. Why not? I'm heading back that way! Get's me priority service the rest of the night and has even gotten me a few freebies. VERY VERY rare for this not to work for me. Maybe twice or so. It's pretty impressive evidence.
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First time poster here. I have been following the forum and have joined the PF as well. Have been concentrating on price action first and reading everything I can in the threads about it.
I have a question. I understand that a normal pin bar can give an indication of a trend change. If you are in a strong trend (upward for example) and you get a pin bar which has headed down (and the open/close) are within the top 1/3 of the pin, is that a strong suggestion that the trend will continue upwards?
I am assuming that there are no other factors...
Hi pchees,
There is a certain type of pin that rules the roost when it comes to reversals. Even against strong trends.
Some examples (numbered in the accompanying chart):
1. This type of pin isn't a sure thing at all.
If you were to answer your question as regards to most pins that are like this , location is extremely important. ...Choosing to trade at the most probably levels is your number one priority. You'd want to be pretty sure of your levels trading against a strong trend with these.
2. And 3. ...Now these pins rock at swing highs/lows. They are rarer, and when you see them with very long noses relative to the preceding price action like this, it's a different story to the above example.
When there's good space for price to move into to go with them I even change my trade management style.
....There aren't many like this in these conditions that fail as reversal entry points.
Note how both these two pins eclipsed the preceding run of bars as regards to size (price range) quite noticeably. There was a MAJOR change in sentiment evident in their nose length. Exactly the evidence we want to see.
For both of the above types I need to stress the importance of needing space for your trade to move into still (as always). i.e. don't enter if it's trading directly into the path of a consolidation area that just broke out preceding the pin. ...Or at least be sure there's room to take half profit and manage your trade before going for them.
.
,Bundy
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im always amazed by these 1st time posters that obviously understand what we are doing.
you have to be at least a medium term lurker h.
welcome,
jim
Ditto that. Especially in recent times.
I think it also shows how great the established followers have gotten at getting the techniques accross. So many members here now that help pull the wait of this thread along. It works so well. Everyone is doing a fantastic job.
Pity we don't all live near the same bar for a congratulatory drink! (And we also need a "raise glass" smiley. )
And welcome to the thread Headless.
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if that was the case nothing would get done, cause we'd all be wasted all the time LOL
lol ... Yeah. We'd all check the charts every few hours and bring about all sorts of great ideas about where the dollar is heading the next 10 years.
...Nahh that's talking shop.
I'm mostly sure, but I suspect there are a few of us here now that have reached the point where trading is like checking your shoe laces and re-tying them every few hours.
I could imagine we'd be all yapping and carrying on, beers etc in hand, when all of a sudden the 4hr chart alrms all go off... ....everyone goes quickly silent and shuffles to their blackberries/iphones etc for a few minutes. ...Then back to it like nothing had happened, the topless bar maids all confused and thinking something from the twighlight zone just popped into their lives. ....ahhhh.... goood times.
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__________________ Bundy's status today: "Waiting... "
On my FXPro feed there are 80 pips between break of pin and the 1.9000 level which gives you plenty of time to move your stop if you like to play it that way.
Exactly. I'm suspicious of the 9050 ( to 60) area too though.
But overall there's enough about the look of the pin for some people to take the trade.
I'm two minded on it, so I'm going to have to wait for something more clear cut.
USDCAD looks like a chance to break higher , and the pin could very well be a mirror of the GBP moves only. Why did I go to those two pairs?? ...because I obviously needed convincing. As soon as I thought that, I was out of the whole idea. lol ....Maybe if I'd been around for the 4 hour OB earlier I would have started from there.
It's worth a punt for others. My overall result improvements are coming from culling these trades though. Don't need to force it.
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im in from the 4h so im maybe a little bias, but to me it looks very good.
Bundy,
this makes a lot of sense also,thanx for pointing it out i hadnt thought of this.
or make it happen please make it happen!!! lol well at least the cheers smiley, cool idea.
well this is why i like it....
jon
My decision had a lot more to do with the first target expectation than position on the chart. Trade has good prospects after some breaks. I'm just going to wait for something else. Mind you, I could have woken up different and seen it in a different light any other day. You never know. lol
I'm happy.
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Excellent Post Josh. Exactly how I Look at iffy bars. Plus if you have gone through the charts and had to pick a better xxx/cad bar,. the USD/CAD has a much better overall shape.
Mike
U/Cs the only one that's got my ears pricked up, but dang it, would be nice to have a cleaner entry proposition. Most the time you get it, but most pairs are untidy at the minute to me.
On 4 hour , even without pulling up a MACD or something, i can see there is obvious Duh-vergence.
(Pink "untidy level" PPZ line is current 365 on the daily too. A good thing.)
I'm guessing PA off of the Pink PPZ line/area (daily 365), but it will wanna be pretty good. I'll take poorer PA off of the small boxed area possibly if it gets there.
Waiting for now.
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I hope that you don't mind if I piggyback on part of your statement... Considering the different closing of candle/bars that we get from brokers..... which 4hr candle closing would be generally better for the execution of James16 method during the London/NY session? ODL's Gmt or FXPRO's GMT+3
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say FXPRO. As much as I believe in trade what you see, at this time of year NY close charts rule. ...For whatever reason. The 4 hour signals just seem more powerful.
I'm just about convinced now that everyone trying to learn here should get an FXPRO demo going. At the very least, just as an alternative to their other charting. You can still execute your trade wherever.
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Have you guys heard about this? I received this from a friend of mine....
I apologise if this is a repost..
There's some rule changes that will affect anyone trading
Forex with a USA regulated Broker as from the end of
July that you should know about.
Basically you cannot use Stoploss or Limit orders after that
so you need to see how you can still manage the risk on trades.
There's a good video that explains how https://admin.acrobat.com/_a205571165/p91063619/
Also the leverage will be reduced to a maximum of 100:1
although...
Guys, it's all good!
...It does NOT mean you can't have stop / limit orders etc. It just specifies that they can't take a certain form that's evident in some platforms.
The rule just states that a broker will not be able to have a "close" based option tied exclusively to an individual position (or order ticket). i.e. "Close this exact ticketed position when it hits my Stop Loss or Take Profit level."
Why they are doing this?....
....If you had created a second position (let's say you doubled your exposure when you got confirming PA) and wanted to close it before the first half was closed that would totally conflict with the new FIFO ( First-In First-Out ) regulation from a few months ago.
This all doesn't stop your broker from creating "associated" orders and calling them say...
"Ticket #1202:- 'Stop Loss' for Order ticket #1200 - Create opposing entry order at 1.2343 to Zero my exposure (or halve it or whatever) "
"Ticket #1203:- 'Take Profit' for Order ticket #1200 - Create opposing entry order at 1.2570 to Zero my exposure "
...if that makes sense?
Most of the good broker platforms already do things the right way. You just didn't notice because it's managed in the background and shown to you in a simple way to understand. A broker can still show a line on the screen showing your order, with it's entry price, stop loss level, TP level and so on. Does it make any difference that in the background those stop loss and TPs are separate tickets that adjust your exposure? No .
It's like everyone whining about hedging. It DOES NOT inhibit anyones strategies. It just changes the way their positions(Exposures) have to be represented in the platform. (And stops brokers taking a second grab of the spread by cunning) (Also means some EAs and so on need to be redesigned to adjust)
I don't know why we have to have the FIFO bit (something from futures/options expiries i guess.) , but to trade... all that matters in this world is your overall exposure to a particular market during a certain period of time. It's up to your broker to give you a platform that's easy to manage your positions with and still complies with all regulations.
Don't stress. It's how it should be. Nothing much changes.
(And leverage over 100:1 not allowed? Who cares? lol That's quite reasonable)
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FIFO is all about transparency. It will enable better compliance monitoring capabilities.
Cheers SP, Makes sense.
I knew there'd be a good reason for it. Just didn't need to risk a migraine figuring it out. lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro
Funny you bring that up. I no longer keep my entire nut in the accounts. A sizable portion sits elsewhere. I started this in reaction to the recent economic changes. (You never know what some broker is doing to themselves and hence, to you.) I take a percentage based on my *entire* trading stake - which includes the other safety accounts.
Very wise move IMO.
I've spread mine out too. I learnt from my parents experience with a collapsed financial institution in the 80s never to trust any entity with all my eggs (they got most of it out in time by pure luck, but it always stuck with me).
How many trusted companies over the years have gone belly up after hiding their woes from even the best regulators?
....Now... if you'll excuse me everyone, I have a wedding to attend.
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Respectfully Bundy, I disagree. My style requires very tight initial stops and trailing stops that have to be set very quickly. It both works and has been very profitable for me. If I have to place separate and opposing orders for each of these, it will make this VERY difficult for me.
I didn't make it clear enough sorry.
Yes that WOULD be a pain if you had to enter seperate orders. But that's NOT the case. (The platform will do that for you automatically.)
What I was trying to say is that that box that pops up when you enter an order on a platform does all of that automatically for you. ...creating those seperate order tickets for you in the background without you having to deal with it.
The new rule just stops one ticket doing everything. By ONE ticket I don't mean the order entry box that comes up. ...I'm talking about a ticket representing the command to change your position. Your order entry box creates 3 tickets automatically for you. One for the entry, one for the stop, and one for the TP.
Trust me, you have nothing to worry about except maybe having to change to a broker who has a decent interface.
I suspect that MT4 can't do it properly by the way. We may need to wait for MT5!! (soon)
Quote:
Originally Posted by albchr
Naaaa........not bad........at all.....
lol
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Last edited by bundyraider, Jul 4, 2009 11:11pm
Reason: Had to run the first time. Needed to clarify
I'm not sure that I like the new rules either, because, lets say we have a good PB setup up against resistence, where price has not broken below the PB to trigger the entry, and I would like to put on a pending order with a stoploss in place, before I go to work. I would not be able to do that with the new rules as I understand it. Because I would be afraid that the 'entry order' that serves as a stoploss would be triggered, instead of the entry order I intended to enter on. ( sorry if I sound too confusing )
THE NEW RULE WON'T CHANGE A THING.
Forget what you read about all the conspiracy theories and crap and how you will have to go overseas. Wipe it from your memory.
And YES OANDA does it the correct way that complies. You just place an order like normal with your stop loss and TP and so on. NOTHING has changed. ....Just a couple of brokers will have to re-write their platforms to record orders the correct way.
The ONLY issue for some people may be the new maximum leverage rule.
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Actually Oanda... associates those seperate orders with the opening ticket. Just tried it. But anyway, if indeed they need to change anything it's no biggy. They would just need to change it so the orders aren't totally MARRIED to that one and only position. Where as MT4 based brokers may need to wait for MT5 to be finished before they can do it all correctly.
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OK, perhaps I'm a bit thick here. (Trust me, it's possible) but...
No you're not thick. It is confusing.
...I know how to programme and can understand how everything , even the most complex series of tasks, can be triggered by a single button on the screen and all be performed by the computer in less than a nanosecond.
It's up to your broker to chain everything into that one button.
I think the best thing you can do is create a free non-timelimited (never expires ) Oanda FX GAME account and just play with and check out the platform. Especially the one click trading options.
They aren't the only ones that do this. Many have "One Click" Trading features you can enable. (including futures focused brokers) that have the ability to link up with some really cool third-party software like Ninja Trader that will do EVERYTHING you are worried about AND comply.
(Check out the preferences picture I've included ) In this case Oandas allows you to specify a pre-set default automatic stop (AND trailing stop ) and take profit etc.
The other picture. Check out the red circled areas in the trading screen picture. One is the button you click to turn on one-click trading any time you like. The other is just an example of how you can pre-fill the trade amount. ...or in this example this figure is from the preferences box in the other picture.
Notice how you can change the preferences individually for each pair/symbol/market if you like.
I've also entered an order with TP SL and a trailing stop set so you can see the orders that were automatically created without me doing anything but entering the market with one click. These are in the colour coded orders grid up top.
I consider you (and everyone here my friend). My intention is to allay your fears, not make you look 'thick'. The last thing you need in your situation is something like this to be on your mind eh.
Now.... I'm wasting real monopoly money by placing that trade. Be grateful. (Not kidding either. I treat this demo account pretty serious. lol)
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LOL...I wasn't trying to imply "You" were making me look thick....LOL
It's all good. I didn't even take it that way at all.
By the way. I think Oandas quite good. Wasn't technically recommending them. They just have a good example I could show. Like any service you should make sure they work well for YOU. Their bar charts are average price. Which sucks, to me. :P
Those fears you had.... Man, some brokers have horrible platforms where all your fears are true, lol But it's the brokers. Not because of any limitations the NFA or any other body has imposed.
If you have any other questions you'd better PM me. I think I've created enough clutter here now.
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bundyraider,
thanks for elaborating. twice that thanks goes for your post about the NFA's FIFO rule.
am just starting out to check out Oanda's software. Let's see if i'll regret not doing so 2-3 years earlier. lol
I think your post was so detailed that i'll consider it as another golden bundy nugget.
It's free to check out. So why not?
I think the main people that have problems with Oanda are the News traders. (But they whinge about everything broker related. lol). They do seem to do funny things around NFP etc. ...But I personally believe they are only passing on the real conditions of those particular moments. (Widening spreads / sparse order books etc)
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I can tell you that most of my trades are taken with two positions and when I take partial profit (one position off at the TP1 level and move second to BE) the VAST majority of the time my second position is stopped at BE.
Yep.
I've traded and back tested many many methods over the years (a lot of indicator ones too.) Not one of them benefited from taking off partial profits. (end result wise)
When I don't have time to analyse charts properly I use Jim's take-profit / set to B.E. method (That makes it sound like a "nuff-nuff" method. lol ...it just happens to be a good method to use in this situation.) . I know I won't go backwards. I can take a lot of crappy trades and still come out ahead. That's why I think it's a great way for beginners to start out on. You don't get many losses and can built your abilities safely.
But man, I love taking the trades where I can go back to "full take profit at Target X" , like a lot of good PPZ trades tend to be. They are right up there close to the "Let it run" set ups.
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Ok. Point well taken Bundy. When you say that you dont take partial profit, do you trail or move your stops?
You mean when I'm not in partial profit trading mode type of trade what do I do?
...For sure I'll move my stops! On a trending trade.
Want me to really screw with your head?..... <muwaahhahaa>
1. On what I think is a break out into (what i think is) a new trend.... trail stops. (PPZs, two bars or whatever you like) Target major levels and so on .... blah blah blah
2. On a trade I've entered with close S/R. ....full profit (Take what the market is willing to give. ) Sometimes setting BE once near target as a back-up. Sometimes instead of exiting, placing stop just behind the market momentum to milk more out of it. ....Locks in most of the profit, allows possible free ride into a breakout spike. I don't know how many times I've placed a stop a sacrificial 10 pips behind the current price once at my target instead of going flat and gotten an extra 50 or 60 pips. Not just in this method either. On rare occasion massive unexpected bonus moves with a full position on.
3. On a break out trade that has a previous recent high/low to contend with before a trend can possibly continue on.... Watch screen at that high/low when alarm goes off.... If it looks like retracing take full profit and wait for a new pullback entry at the break out point. Re-enter if looks right. If there's enough room and a good enough signal I'll even take reverse trade down to the pullback area and apply same method. Rarely though.
4. Weekly chart shows bearish OB (Not awesome, but good OB). ...4 hour chart gives Rac style retrace entry right where suspected. ...enter trade ....Take partial profit at low of weekly bearish bar if it looks like consolidating at that low. ....What's left of position is "safe" amount for a weekly type trade. In other words, the larger 4-hour portion was like a scalp "trade within a trade" and was much larger position because of closer stop . Bearish bar is Ok, and expected to be successful, so I'd leave the rest of the position on as a trail with PA and PPZ type management style or until conflicting signal. If weekly bar was just a possible sign of consolidation (i.e. was sitting on top of a strong PPZ) ...possibly take full profit. In other words the partial position left on has to have it's own merits.
5. Summer survival mode. ....Just about every trade will be partial profits at first trouble area/ move rest to BE. And not often half. If it's crowded I'll take nearly everything off and turn off and go to bed or whatever . I use this mode when I'm not feeling like doing too much work with charts (can be any time of the year) . It's less stressful. My account goes forward (Just not as quickly) And I can get away with sub-standard trades (Don't confuse that with not being picky still. Most of the "Picky" bit is obvious and takes 2 seconds per trade to look at. As most here know)
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.........
I could so keep going on like I PM'd mike about earlier. There are little changes to the plan under differing conditions. And one year to the next can change what is optimum. Always re-evaluate. (Look at late last years volatiilty!)
For the new guys reading this...
Makes it sound really complicated doesn't it? ...BUT it all depends on the S/R outlook. Simple S/R .
How crowded is it? And how strong is the move?
Is it obvious EVERYONE has changed sentiment all of a sudden?
There's a hell of a lot of that "simple" to implant. But it IS simple. Just needs practice and confidence in your method. lol
A point I should make is a lot of the complicated subtleties above are only really done to improve on already profitable methods. Milking more out of the market. You don't need to do your head in like this to be profitable.
A lot of the long time members here will be nodding there heads with most of the stuff above. Others will be going "Oh mannn.... he's totally over complicating it!" lol
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For me - the tail cannot be ignored, so i'm in on reduced risk
Totally with mike too. On both "do it how you see it" and his own trading stance.
The reason I wanted to pipe in here was to point out that Even though that pin has a long tail, it's the speed of the bar before it that would keep me out. I like it the other way around.
A long tail to me is when the pin has a statement to say....like ... "Oohhh....Accelerated down move eh? Well.....I counter with a MASSIVE REVERSAL!!! ....bewaahhhaaaa!!! Take that MoFo!!!"
I find is best avoiding possible 'taking-a-breather' pins unless they have a really cool position. Jaroo's chart and statements mirrors my analysis on this one.
...But Depends on how you manage your trade, eh?
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Yeah I mean, at the end of the day we all trade our own variations to some degree....
LOL ....It's hard not to say "I" a lot when posting here. If you don't, then you run the risk of sounding like you think your style is the "Be All and End All" of all trading styles.
We all do the same here mate. ...And I hate saying "I" a lot when talking too. lol
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1. On what I think is a break out into (what i think is) a new trend.... trail stops. (PPZs, two bars or whatever you like) Target major levels and so on .... blah blah blah-----------What do you see that makes you believe that we might be starting a new trend?
When I finish my coffee, the stains in the bottom of my cup talk to me.
...Seeking explained it REALLY well once on this thread. Progressions.
...Also an awesome weekly pin/or whatever with plenty of space??? ....well that would give me a great basis to start planning the progression on the lower scales. ...You'll get it now. Nothing you don't know. Heading into "Space" ( Space? damn mike and his "word of god" definition machine )
edit: Think break outs. Breakout into the next breakout point into the next breakout point.... then freeeeeeee!
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I still remember the days. "OMG what a big move I just missed, oh well this has to be the end, I am in." "ah shit should have waited."
LOL
...Yeah ...and the 'ole.... :- "Well, it'll be awesome if I can get in at point C , but just so I don't miss out I'll put on half right now and then the rest later if it makes it there. ....Wow going to have an awesome R:R potential if it DOES get to C!!!"
In the mean time most of your trades draw down your account before either stopping out totally or reversing at the 'higher probability' entry point C. LOL
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hey!!!!...you been reading my account statements?!?!?!?!
It's a doozy that one.
I've got that one covered emotionally...mostly... But sometimes I don't look properly and will get caught out and see an obvious mistake related to that very same problem.
It all comes down to looking for reasons not to trade. ...As usual. ( And often zooming out even further would have been the preventative cure. lol)
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