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james16 Chart Thread
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Apr 13, 2010 11:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123
Hi guys
can anyone explain why we got all these gaps in the last few days and is anyone trading them? Are these gaps a good opportunity?
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Hey Bertie
The exact answer why is nothing more to know then the markets were moving prior to when your broker was open(remember they are 24/7 markets). So there was some party who desired to be getting into the market at that time. This creates that gap that use when your broker finally does open. Gaps are notorious for closing, especially in the forex markets and thus create opportunities both on them to close(remember they don't have to close right away http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=56615 ) and also these gaped areas often act as a PPZ in themselves(see my last few posts).
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 13, 2010 3:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
Anyone looking at the AUD/JPY pin forming? just bounced off BRN, bit of traffic over the last few days but begfore that lots of space and FTA at around 86.80
Maybe good for a 35 pip scalp from 86.55->86.80? 
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Hey D
Someone just asked me about this one in a PM
Hey A
. This pin is at a very high swing high so without that deep retracement that means were trading right into trouble. Overall it is the 87 round number but we have to watch that previous high around 86.80. Not a trade to get to fancy on it if you decide to take it. Not one I would pull the trigger on personally as there isn't much to go on.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 13, 2010 3:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by packhorse
Hi Dan,
Are you saying that this looks a good set-up? To me it does if the PB holds. Bouncing off BRN and a monthly pivot.
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something like this pack?
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Apr 13, 2010 4:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PippingMama
Hell Mike,
I am looking at the AUDNZD daily pin, looks like it is tradable.
However, the there is a huge weekly pin on top.
I am wondering is it better to stay away on trading this pin if there is higher timeframe PA will overrule easily. Even the Daily Pinbar is follow the trend?
What do you think about this daily pin?
Thanks!
PM
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Hey PM
for me the breakdown would be weekly pin didn't close strong below 1.3 and has already hit first trouble area(so some might have taken from that), now daily is a small pin at a small retrace(ie in traffic) and could be fine with a tight mgmt. Again size is a pretty big factor for me so this is a pass, into 1.31 seems very likely on a break(around 1.3080)
Hope that helps
mike
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Apr 13, 2010 9:26pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
Quote:...
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good stuff B and not to mention often spread size is relative to the range a pair tends to move as well. Important stuff here... thanks B
Mike
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Apr 14, 2010 12:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
Hi, I want to learn your method, here is a short trade triggered based on below reason :double top, pinbar break.
if the stop were taken out, then, reverse to long as the breakout method LJ and other successful traders here are doing.
am I doing correct or wrong? thanks
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Hey Jeurre
Welcome to the thread. This is a great example of a trade that will trick us and eventually you'll learn what to do with these. Firstly make sure to read the first post by James about starting on higher timeframes. It is tough to make decision properly on the 1hr when new to this stuff.
But notice how tiny that pinbar is and it was just "starting" to approach this former high area. This tiny bar really shows price just saying "listen last time we got near this area price dropped". But notice this time the selling was not that strong(indicated by the bar size). Now the most improtant order flow in my view exists BEYOND that former high. Notice when price breached this high HEAVY selling came in and we formed a very very large BEOB(bar with arrow above it). THis is what I call true selling.
Again welcome and hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 14, 2010 12:30pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brb-Fraudin
Hello people I want to ask 2 questions ,should I read the 4000 pages?? I can do it in 2 months or so ,no problem. But I want to know if there is a better way to get the info.
Another question ,is it possible to trade only daily pin bars with SL above/below the pin ?? Just for the sake of simplicity??
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Hey Fraudin
Make sure to read post 1 a bunch and then start to work your way through the thread. After a few hundred pages you will be able to get through a lot of it faster and especially be able to skip to the important stuff.
As for your question on Pins yes it is possible and this is how I do it too
Best
Mike
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Apr 14, 2010 12:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chartergas
I'm trying to work out the right timing to move break even
Twice I have moved up my stop loss to BE but then it hits and then takes off
At the moment I have played two pinbars been up approx 100 pips and then move up SL and then get stopped out
I'm trading one pinbar in D1 should I run a two bar stop to prevent thiis
And one in H1 as well !
What's the best timing to move to BE?????
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yeah trade mgmt is a very personal thing and the hardest thing to get down IMO. It's about knowing the situation you are involved in and having a game plan(that often changes during that trade). But as you get more experience under your belt of what works vs doesn't you can build off that.
HEre is a very general post on some of the things I look at when dealing with exits
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=36491
Again just how I do things though
Mike
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Apr 14, 2010 10:10pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Any significance ?
On USDJPY, the BEOB is at swing high.
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Hey C
Based on your chart(cause my weekly looks significantly different usd/jpy) that would be a BEOB. The gbp/usd would technically be a BUOB but a very small one at a swing high.
Best
Mike
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Apr 14, 2010 10:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cprao
Thank you Mike. Here is another one USDSGD. H1 Chart.
Pros:
Swing low.
Pin bar is long
Head is little above the previous bar
but the head is not out of the traffic. Not off any round number.
What do you say ?
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Hey C
After that huge bearish move down I would be very reluctant to try to pick the bottom with a small bar of that size. That could be created simply by some profit taking or a slight pause. Notice how the next bar couldn't even break the high of that pin, that shows me a real lack of momentum to the up side for now as well.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 14, 2010 10:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badhairday
Hello everyone, I have 1 question and its about how you guys would deal with a level retrace.
The trend move that goes up like stairs instead of a zigzag.
Attachment 458010
Price does start to move back up again, but the James16 method states that heavy traffic is a NO NO, but then again I see these types of retrace all the time where there is no movement down. Is this something better ignored and me just being greedy? or is there some way of telling that the price will continue to move up or break back down thats clear?
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Hey BHD
I will try to take a stab at your question as there isn't a simple answer.
Yes price moves in different types of formations. We never know for sure as each situation is unique but we can REACT to different types of situations. This is where the role of s/r and price action come into play. There are many ways to play retraces. For example some people will use fibs to denote areas of buying back into the trend. Others will wait for breakout type plays of these areas of consolidation. The key is to use Price action and s/r to help you time your entries for whatever the situation that you are comfortable. For consolidation plays I like to wait for a breakout of the area then watch for a pullback to that former breakout area and look for confirmation in the form of price bars as taught in this thread. You won't find entries for every move, or know whats going to happen the 100% of the time. It is all about probabilities and then using that to help us enter and manage our trades. For example if you were long already and saw price consolidate you can place your stop loss under this area at a logical point to help you both lock in profit/reduce your risk and still have the potential for a breakout higher.
Best
Mike
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Apr 14, 2010 11:44pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi guys, i see there's been some discussion about price gaps lately and many believe that most of the time gap will be filled. But what is the definition of gap filled? For example EUR/USD gap up this week. Does the price has to retrace back to the high or the close of the bar prior the gap to be considered the gap is filled?
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Hey E
For the most part there isn't really a "Gap". Visually we see it due to our brokers, but if you notice depending on the time your broker opened you may or may not even see a gap. I like to think of it as filling back and checking out what kind of "interest" is at that gap area. So I never look for a full closing so much as price getting close enough to that former area. I have seen some who wait for an exact close but like I said previously often times price reverses just before the gap closes, moves away, then comes back up to refill it again. I just prefer to view it in this sense and it makes more sense to me structurally.
Just my views
Mike
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Apr 15, 2010 12:45am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Wow Mike, that is a super fast response. Thanks. So it is best to treat this gap as another S/R area than looking for an exact close of the area since the gap does not really exist. Am i getting your point correctly?
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Yep this is more or less how I look at them, be it looking to trade them for a "close" or to trade off them for a bounce. Most things in trading IMO are zones/areas
Mike
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Apr 15, 2010 12:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010
Hello everyone,
I have been reading this thread for a month. I learn a lot from all helpers. Thank you all unselfish senior members.
Here is my question:
Different brokers have different system time, so that the data on charts is different. For daily charts, there is only slight difference; but on h4 charts, I think the difference is quite big.
The following 4h charts are from FXPro and AlpariUS.
Which broker's system time setting is more matching the market? Which broker do you recommend?
Thanks
Jason
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Hey Jason
Welcome
Since forex is not a centralized market there are no official times. So this means you can use any you want really. Remember these price bars are only an aggregation of price and as you will see ultimately location is everything and these price bars more become our trigger bars. I prefer a daily close near 5pm est(like fxpro as kiss says). But I personally watch a 4hr close for each of the 4 hours and have 4 mt4s running with that. I don't find one better then the other.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 15, 2010 1:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shauns1966
I thought I'd share yesterdays trade on this pair which I don't think was discussed and share with you my difficulties and indiscipline in trade management.
I took the trade because:
- The small relatively poor pin was bouncing off an existing trend line;
- Trade with the trend
- off BRN (14700)
- 14700 is daily ppz
- pin and 14700 ppz has confluence with 61 fib from previous swing low and 25 EMA
- Pressure to close the Sunday gap at 14638
Against trade:
[list][*]Very small only just a pin[*]To close the gap price will...
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nicely thought out pre and post trade analysis thanks for sharing Shaun!
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Apr 16, 2010 11:19am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skinfx
Hi All,
Not sure if i miss out anything.... pls advise...
+ daily DBHLC
+ confluence with PPZ
+ space look alright to me
+major trend still down
- short term trend is up
i enter abit late and it already move abt 20pip off previous low. i place my TP at 125 RN + PPZ but miss by 5pips. so is it advisable to place my stop above the RN in future? which lvl will be a better placement of my TP for this case since PPZ refer to an area?
Thank you,
skin
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Hey Skin
Looks good bud, I like to put my TP just ahead of the round numbers(if taking profit from a short). This one bounced just before it then pierced through like a knife.
Best
Mike
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Apr 16, 2010 11:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2010
hi Mike,
Nice to see you here.
I have read many of your posts and watched your videos, very good stuff. I learn a lot from them. Just want to say Thank You!
I read James' post, the link is here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3131645&postcount=45 536,
I don't understand why the order placed there, please see attached chart. Could you give me an idea?
Thanks for your help.
Jason
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Hey Jason
Thanks for the nice words
That chart is what is called "touch" trading. Meaning instead of waiting for price bars, we are looking to very strong areas to have a buy/sell limit(in this case a sell limit). So James was using the former top(which had heavy selling) and placing a sell order knowing that more times then not we will find "some" kind of selling at this former area. Former areas of supply/demand have memory this is why technical traders can profit(if done right  )
Hope that helps!
Mike
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Apr 16, 2010 11:47am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmc
Took the USD CAD BUOB - First Trade of month besides gap plays.
Closed it out at 1.0050 because of traffic and it was a Counter Trend Trade.
This thing Retraced to the BRN and Shot like a rocket. I missed it. But I followed my plan and had a .3R trade to end the week up. I couldnt get greedy becasue it was only a 4hr buob to reverse a large downtrend. Unlikely IMHO.
Attachment 459592
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DMC my man
I took this one and got stopped out for b/e. In a video I did I said we could pullback to 1 and take off above that last high. Boy was I right, and profited ZERO from it hahah.
Nicely done sir
Mike
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Apr 16, 2010 12:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danku
hey mbqb11......would you know why most all Yen and Cad pairs seem to have taken off? Is it position liquidation?........Cheers
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Hey D
For me it doesn't matter in terms of why.
When I entered my usd/cad long I looked at the technical pattern which was setting us up for a "fake" break(induce weak sellers) of 1.0 and that failure and it being friday would be my explanation. Someone can give you a fundies answer and to me it means nothing. The money still has to move into and out of the market and we 'SEE' that.
I took a b/e on this trade gut I have to run out for the day and I figured it explains it better on this. Here is that video
http://drop.io/mcch98g
Best
Mike
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Apr 16, 2010 12:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
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yep and as a trader all I see is blah blah blah 
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Apr 16, 2010 12:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Thought you might say that 
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I swear to you I guarantee you tonight when I am out my friends will say...so how did so and so effect you. They are like how can you do anything without the news! Yet I get grilled about it every time.
Case in point last night here is an IM from a good friend.
H************k 1:19 am
(1:19:16 AM): does the accident in iceland affect u?
D********* 1:19 am
(1:19:34 AM): what accident
(1:19:47 AM): effect my trading?
(1:19:52 AM): or affect me emotionally?
H********* 1:19 am
(1:19:55 AM): lol
(1:19:58 AM): the markets in europe
D******* 1:20 am
(1:20:00 AM): oh
H********** 1:20 am
(1:20:03 AM): europes basically halted
D********** 1:20 am
(1:20:03 AM): i dont pay attention to news
(1:20:07 AM): couldnt tell ya
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Apr 16, 2010 12:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
lol.
I don't use the news in my trading...but just like to know what's going on.
Did you know Lehman Brothers went into Bankruptcy? 
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The only time I am aware of News is when the markets are near collapse. Then you have to be careful about executing during some major interest rate announcement. And yes I was aware b/c some of my friends got laid off and wanted to grab a beer 
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Apr 16, 2010 12:33pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
The idea of 'newsproof' trading fills me with much happiness
have a great weekend all
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Yeah it did for me too. I think we all come into it thinking it is a must. But it can be done with or without. I don't knock those that use it, not my intention. I am very simple minded though for better or worse.
Have a great weekend too
Mike
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Apr 16, 2010 12:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Oh, and I get those questions all the time Mike. My other favourite is "where do you think the euro is headed?" or "what's going to happen to the pound". I always tell them "dude you're asking the wrong guy. I have no idea" and they look at me like I'm crazy...lol.
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LOL, I say what is the euro?
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Apr 17, 2010 3:08am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skinfx
Hi Mike,
Thanks for ur respond, yes when the first bounce, i was like damn it... winning turning into losing trade !!#$%^^... i would have move my stop to b/e if i am trading live... or may close out with some losses when H4 show a PB indicate that the price might be reversing up. so do u think it is advisable to hold on the trade before this piercing through 125 lvl happen?
Thanks,
skin
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Hey Skin
It really depends on too many factors to make too general of a statement. My general rule is not to trade into major PPZs for this reason as it leaves you sort of up in the air with trade mgmt(again that is a personal thing). In general if I find a good trade into a strong area I am flat taking profit or moving to b/e pretty quick. The more confident I am in my trade the more I tend to let it breathe.
Best
Mike
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Apr 17, 2010 6:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
Does anyone like the look of the daily PIN on EUR/NZD?
I know it's going against a very long down trend but does the chart look like maybe the trend is getting worn out a bit?
The PIN had bounced off BRN 1.9000, the weekly is showing an IBP (I think) for a long trade, it looks like a reverse H&S pattern on the daily chart and the FTA looks like around 1.9200.
Good for a buy stop at 1.9110 ----> T/P @ 1.9180, Stop at 1.9060?
I drew 3 fibs from 3 highs down to the low of 9 April and can see fairly clear run from 1.9100 up to at least 1.9180/1.9200...
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Hey DD
The eur/nzd is really just in a very strong consolidation right now and this pin is in super traffic here since it isn't at any real swing point. Really tough area to play a trade within especially considering the rather large spread eur/nzd tends to carry(putting you really right at the first trouble areas pretty close. I don't neccesarily see anything wrong with your analysis just in terms of bar selection I would like to see you be more picky.
Hope you are having a nice weekend
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 3:50am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kk007
I have read about pinbar at swing high/low, but I have found out that the consideration of swing high/low position has no predictive power, because the fact that swing high/low is a swing high/low can only be known in hindsight.
Let me explain the point with the following figures. In Figure 0, we see a pinbar, but is it a swing high/low, it cannot be told yet. Price after the pinbar can go up and can down. If it goes up, you can then see it is a swing low (Figure 1), and the fortune teller now tell you their prediction works out. If the price...
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Hey KK
This is not the entire story though. Bars at swing points are only part of what makes them useful there. Understanding the type of potential swing point can go very far into understanding the potential of the bar(coupled with its size and location). A huge pinbar at a swing high or low that is a major potential swing point has the make up of less touble areas and thus a possible to be a runner. Where as a bar at a more minor swing point is by nature going to have more trouble areas(see my recent video I posted in this thread on understanding traffic). Just picking a swing point and any old pinbar is why most will fail. You have to take it the next step an understanding what locations and what a bar is likely to do to build a game plan that over time will produce profits. So while I understand your point it is only part of the story.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 9:31am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kk007
Ok. Ok. You talk about how to trade with the fake chart? Rather than discuss the main issue addressed?
I think for those who get my point in the post they get it. For those who do not get it, they do not get it.
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Hey KK
The real problem is that sketching your own chart leaves the whole entire story out. I know what you are saying in terms of if it puts in the swing point you don't know till price moves away. That is really not what the focus on understanding WHEN and the TYPE of swing point you are at. That should be the factor in REAL time. When I get say a huge pinbar at confluence at a CURRENT potential swing low. This is what is going through my head. Then you must go into trade mgmt based on all these factors. Again it isn't hindsight it is real time analysis with your game plan. Then the idea is to see if what you do works out over the series of many trades. So swing points are extremely important because in context(this is the key) they tell you must more about price.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 11:13am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewinTown22
Hey everyone,
I'm around page #50.. i'm still reading but i was wondering if it would be a better idea to get a membership at jim's website ( even thougth i still don't trade or have the enough income ) to keep on learning.. I know the information can't be learned in month or two.. Are there PDF files that i can save in my computer for when my membership expires?
thanks! 
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Hey NewinTown
My recommendation is to stick to this thread for at least a few months, hang out here keep working your way through. There is a ton here to absorb and it is worth it. Keep that demo account going and learn learn learn
Oh yeah ask questions as you work your way through too!
Best
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 11:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trade price
Hello everyone.
i am not a...
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Very nice clean chart Sho thanks for sharing. It is all about understanding these supply/demand levels timing your entries and then mgmt of your trades. Good stuff
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 11:47am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illumin?
Hello all!
I've been trying to figure out what platform/software allows you to perform the "free-hand" drawings that Mike is accomplishing on this video.
http://drop.io/mcch98g
Any help from, Mike or rest of the group would be appreciated.
Thanks in advance!
Sincerely,
Illumin?
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Hey Illumine
I use camtasia screen recorder and it is part of the video recorder software. They have a picture program called snag it that is free that has similar tools that you might want to use.
Best
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 3:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mauzzz
Okay, if someone please could have a look at the charts of a trade I took on forex tester.
4 DEC 2002 G/U on Daily
+ Off a 1.57RN acting as a support and res in the past
+ The pin bounces off 61.8 FIB level of the recent swing low
- Not the greatest size pin, but I thought the confluence would make up for that
- Closed 5 pips above 1.57
I set my order 10 pips below the pin and my stop loss was 10 pips above the high of the pin.
Well, and I got stopped out.
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Hey Andrew
Your two major keys are firstly and most important size. Size DOES matter. This one is just simply to small to consider IMO and then the fact the it could not close below 1.57 would be a major sign of weakness. My last thing to also say in general is 10 pips below the low is rather close IMO for the daily. Some people use 10 but I think you want to be more near 15-20. Especially with the fact that if its 10 pips below the low your now trading into the round number and it is very common for buyers to come in under the round numbers(or that is at least where the order flow can sit). Again bar size here can sum this whole trade up though.
Hope that helps
mike
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Apr 18, 2010 4:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty2Cues
Hi,
Is there anything about why the PA set ups work or what is physically happening?
Eg what is the physical significance of a DBLHC. Why is it important that the low of the two bars are at the same level? If the second bar is lower than the first it becomes a bullish outside bar which is just as important? What if the second bar's low is slightly higher than the first bar's low? Why is this not considered good? Does it not mean the sellers couldnt drive the price down and so the uptrend is likely to continue?
Thanks!
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Hey Scotty
It can be any actual reason in terms of who is selling who is buying. But in terms of the bar formations by themselves(again the most important is where they are also the whole story combined). But if you think about a BEOB for example price runs up and at some point during the day goes ABOVE the previous days bar(testing the orderflow there), it also at some point goes below the low of the previous days bar testing what is there. Now from an orderflow and trading standpoint previous highs and lows are where orders(of all kinds exist),now after the bar does that and is able to close near the bottom portion it simply is showing where the short term strength is. Now we combine this with location, size of bar and all the other confluence components and we can start to build cases for and against bars and then we move into trade mgmt mode(which is sort of doing it in reverse where is price going etc). So the bars represent nothing more then price fluctuations during the day. DBHLC for example if price goes back to the same previous high and finds that exact point there is still supply(it could be one huge order that just keeps filling itself everytime price hits the same point), and the eventaully the bulls give up and price closes all the way below the prior low. Again it all is about showing where the pressure is. The bars themselves are not magic, once you are able to combine the bars as just a part of the overall story you are real close.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 5:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mauzzz
Thanks for the explanation, Mike. The thing is, when I look at a random chart, there seems to be a ton of small pins just like the one I took which actually work out fairly decently due to the location they're at. I remember someone mentioning that location is what's most important and the bars themselves are only our "excuse" to get into a trade at a good location?
But if
Then I should have consulted my girlfriend prior to taking the trade, LOL.
P.S. I'm not trying to be disrespectful of what you say (after all, you're the one with 8...
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Hey Andrew
You are correct we can trade a variety of types of bars and still get away with it. But the smaller the bar and poorer the location then we MUST always understand where price is likely to go and work from there. With a bar of this size FTA is close and especially trading into that round number. SO what many do with these bars if they believe their location is good is watch how price acts at the first trouble area. You don't have to take a full loss often when you understand these trouble areas, you can move your stop down, take some off the table, close for b/e etc. This is where managing becomes everything. So when price hits that high and stalls out when can very well suspect the strength isn't there and cut out for worst a very small loss. So location is important from BOTH sides entry and exit. And IMO if you can't play the big bars the small bars will eat most people up especially in the beginning. It is a learning process and takes time.
Hope this helps
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 5:17pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty2Cues
Thanks mike! just trying to figure out the dynamics btween the buyers/sellers
Say we have a strong downtrend and a DBHLC forms on a 50% fib retracement. Other indications suggest the downtrend is likely to continue. If the second bar high is 1/3 of the way from the first bar high, you saying its less likely that the bulls will give up than if they had pushed the price to match the previous high?
So its incorrect to assume that there was never enough interest in buying to even match the previous high and so the downtrend will continue.
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Hey Scotty
I couldn't really give you a 100% answer, since it isn't cut in dry. What waiting for the bar shapes to be what they are after you start to visually see these things over and over you can begin to decipher stronger selling/buying from weaker buying/selling. When these "areas" that formally acted as strong support and resistance are tested again we can see how price reacts and thus formulate a better plan around this. THe best way to explain it is that price does have a memory to a certain extent and this is how us techies can get away with it.
Let me know if that makes sense. Again if you notice that you are comfortable trading bars outside what James teaches by all means explore that, that is part of the process. Again its all about pieces, the bars are 1 piece to the larger puzzle. Abstractly we can speak about it as I did in my previous post but ultimately that is a very small portion to my overall thinking when deciding to enter or exit a trade.
Best
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 5:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty2Cues
Makes alot of sense and cleared some things up for me.
Dont think I will be trading bars outside of what James teaches for a long time (only just made my second demo trade). When reading through the beginnings of the thread I wanted to know why he looked for the setups he did, why he wanted zero pip difference with mathching lows etc but you cleared it up.
Any chance you could take a look at page 4070, posts 61037 and post 61039 (the second post makes a comment about you never taking partial profit)
Will try not to bug you for a while
Thanks...
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Hey Scotty
It is no bother brother!
I do not take partial profits as I don't believe in it really. Reason being I used to and was profitable, then I decided to go back all my old trades and if I simply took Full profit at the first area I was taking half off i would have done better with that alone. This really was eye opening for me that I may have been over complicating(which I felt I was) and from that day forward it was all or none. Too me it simplified things even more so and it is what makes sense. You certainly can do it both or many ways here so I am not hard pressed on it and thus don't bring it up too often.
Best
Mike
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Apr 18, 2010 5:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shauns1966
Hi Mike
This is really interesting stuff.
I try (when appropriate) to liquidate half my position at the first trouble area....
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Hey Shaun
Let me clarify a bit here. What I mean by closing full profit at first area. Was whatever first area I designated to take half off(not necessarily the FTA at the time) I went back and reviewed as if I took FULL profit at that time. As a side note though, I collected the data along with my regular trading which uses a variety of exits(anywhere from trailing, to a set take profit, to move to b/e etc etc) taking full profit at the first trouble are. So I collected the data as I did all my trades last year. My win rate was over 90% and my ROI would go down, but at say 3% risk per trade the ROI would have been just over 60% compounded. So just goes to show how many ways one can skin this thing. Comfortablility is a very important thing in trading otherwise you will not have the confidence to execute day in and out. At least this is what I learned
Hope that clears it up
Mike
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Apr 19, 2010 7:28pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott087
Also, this is something I have been wondering about..if Mike or anyone else has any input I'd like to hear it.
On many setups, even those with decent space, it seems like the first trouble area is way too close after taking certain factors into account--like the buffer, the spread, and taking action a few pips before the exact trouble spot....
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Hey Scott
These are my views and why you see me being so picky. Because the better a setup firstly the more room to the first trouble areas, and even more important the less likely that real first "high" or low is going to panic me out and get to b/e(now that doesn't mean some want still get to b/e). But the less stellar these setups the more these issues come to the forefront and you must decide as a trader if it is still worth taking. Usd/CAD is a great example of this. Now this doesn't mean at the first trouble are you must go right to b/e, you can still eliminate most your risk and see if it can "break", but is it worth it? Only you can answer that one  But there is a reason I am picky, makes life easier for me
Best
Mike
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Apr 19, 2010 8:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
Anytime I start thinking I am somehow extraordinary, I just remember that Japanese housewives made a killing running carry trades over the last decade or so....
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yeah but then we all know what happened to them in a very short time 
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Apr 19, 2010 9:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
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haha crazy times, gotta love that man!
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Apr 19, 2010 10:42pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gannina
Hi, I am trying to work on the trade management aspect of Jame's Strategy. What I don't get is how soon after you enter a trade do you move your stop loss to Breakeven or plus 1?
I trade the 4Hr time frame?
Thanks!
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Hey Gannina
There is no hard and fast rules here. You will see a wildly different array of trade mgmt techniques in this thread. James himself is very quick to move his stops to b/e though or take some off the table. There is no hard and fast rule, but a good starting place is to start to understand trouble areas and work from there. But with that said I have seen James take some of the table for none other reason then being up substantial actual $$ at a pip number. So there really are a lot of ways to make it work.
Wish I could give you more of a direct answer then that
Mike
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Apr 20, 2010 2:46am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S
In an effort to keep R:R within certain bounds, at the moment I place my stop real tight (usually within 30 pips of entry). This is because I am hoping that a break of pins in good location would be a high momentum play. Ofcourse this also increases the amount of losers. For instance I took the USDCAD pin and have already been stopped out.
What do you think of my strategy & would you advise something different?
Many thanks,
Stef
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Hey Stef
I think it really comes down to the balance you are looking for. I like to have my stop on the other side of the bar. This for me gives me the flexibility. Just cause my stop is there I rarely take full bar losses for those that know me. But the entire length of the bar gives me time to reduce my stop and make the proper decisions. This does not mean I don't cut out of my trade at b/e or for a small loss(meaning I don't always just trail out, I also set take profits and a combo). The key is where your comfort zone is. Mine has come from a lot of trial and error and data analysis on my trades to what has really genuinely worked and felt comfortable. I know I could develop a method that does similar to what you are saying but I don't think the actual real time results would fit my personality(ie a lot of b/es and small wins with the occasional runner).
Probably the best piece of advice I could give is while studying/demoing/learning etc don't jump around stick to whatever you "feel" at the moment is right for at LEAST 3-4 months(maybe more ) before re-evaluating and making any changes. By that time you will have actual hard data to start to help mold your trading. Rinse and repeat. Or I should say you rinse and grow.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 20, 2010 4:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Captain
One thing I don't understand with the way you guys trade here. It is always take profit at the first trouble area. But why? Why not dial down onto the 1 hour or 15 minute and look for candle confirmations of a reversal. Rarely does price just head back up without some sort of pinbar, dblhc, etc on the lower time frames. I've seen it very often where people here have take profits set at trouble areas and the price just continues right through. Just a thought.
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This isn't true though if you read through a lot of posts you will see many of us manage trades in a variety of ways. The key is never being caught off guard by the market and you can make better logical decisions based on that and see where you land.
Best
Mike
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Apr 20, 2010 4:46pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mp1983
Hi All, is anyone able to explain the significance of MA's? I can understand why price reacts to different PPZ's or certain fib's or TL's etc but why does price also behave in a similar way when touching MA's?

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MA's are agreements in price so to speak. Be it you use a 365 or a 200 , nothing really significant is going to change. Longer MAs are going to represent longer term agreements and shorter term, well shorter. For most they are nothing more then added confluence or a guide. Sort of a way of being with the trend of the "avgs" since trends are self perpetuating to a certain extent. If they add to your trading and your confluence and mgmt they are great, if they don't then lose em  I think for a lot of people it becomes a visual thing with them. I got rid of them b/c they don't really help me see anything better then I can just see on the chart by itself(visually I can identify the same things that is).
Just my opinion though
Mike
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Apr 20, 2010 5:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mp1983
Thanks Mike. Would be interested to know your thoughts on what the key markets are in terms of significance and knock on affects in other markets.
Would you agree with:
Crude > Gold > Equities > FX (Major > Minor).

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In all honesty I was never good at comparing markets in terms of using it for any real trading ability. I simply like to stick to what I can see on the chart alone. Sometimes you can't help but notice when there is a theme around the markets but that is about as deep as I get. Because at the end of the day the money still has to flow in and out of the market you are looking at.
Wish I had a fancier answer
Mike
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Apr 20, 2010 8:45pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewinTown22
I have a question regarding TB bars...
As for what i understand so fa DBHLC, DBLHC and Pin Bars are best played on extremes (Pivots, RES/SUP levels /fib conflu/other ind) but what about trend breakouts? I'm having trouble spotting what you would call a quaility trade A TB.
Thanks guys
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Bars themselves can be played at any place pending the right "situation" unfolds.
Here is an example of a continuation BUOB which is what I assume you mean as trend breakouts. Notice the box of consolidation and the bars ability to test the low of the entire consolidation and then close near the very top of the range and ABOVE the ppz of 125.
Mike
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Apr 21, 2010 12:19am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey
New to the thread and forex (1 month of research and some demo) trying to absorb a lot of info...very good chance I'll be signing up for J16 in the near future...Guest material is OUTSTANDING!!!!
Anyway, trying to get some of the basics of PA down....
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Hey Donkey welcome to our little thread :P
On my chart(which may look different then yours if you have a different daily closing time). The DBLHC is one but notice how the close was near the middle of the bar , ideally we want it higher up but off a really nice area there. As for the BUOB I am guessing you mean yesterdays bar which was 4/20? This bar is close to being a buob but on my feed it did not have a higehr higher then the previous bar so technically does not qualify. I put arrows under the two setups I believe you are reffering too.
As for saving a chart, if you are on mt4. Right click the chart the click save as picture. THe select active chart(as is). Save it to your computer somehwere you can find it. Then under the submit reply button there is a button called manage attachments. Find your file , upload and you are all set.
Hope this helps
Mike
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Apr 21, 2010 12:39am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider
Hey Mike,
...you missed the bars when you drew your trend line. 
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rofl
dang I am still learning how to draw them 
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Apr 21, 2010 2:31pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluemosaic
Any comments on this pin bar on 4H chart much appreciated - it is occuring over the 1.0000 level.
I am thinking of taking long position if price rises a few points above 1.0000. I know it is against the trend though
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Hey Blue
On your chart I see a pin at the very bottom a small one that has already been well under way. Which bar are you referring too?
Mike
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Apr 21, 2010 2:43pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluemosaic
Hi Mike,
Sorry - posted wrong chart - meant to post Day chart and not 4H.
Now having doubts about that bar as well - think 'head' is too large. See screenshot below. I really hope I get hang of this soon...
I will delete my original post. sorry for mix up
cheers
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takes time bud, it really is a lot of just seeing this stuff and practicing and learning and it slowly clicks into place one thing at a time. Your analysis is good for the daily you are SEEing correctly. Large down trend, but price does have divergence and looking like it wants to turn over at least for some kind of retrace. Now will a small bar like this do it? PossiblY. We never know for sure, but the bigger and more important is if you play a bar like this what is your game plan? IMO if it can close above 1.0 that shows more strength then not being able to. Then it is a matter if that 1. can hold as support. So some might say, "ok I get it's a small bar but let me see if it breaks hard and if it retraces and 1.0 can't hold I will cut out". Others will pass(myself), but that is the beauty and the beast of trading as I say. There are a lot of ways to do things right and more ways to do things wrong
Keep at it
Mike
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Apr 21, 2010 7:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardPip
Do you think it can make it more attarctive, or trendlines and things like that are usefull. Id like to read an opinion from an experienced trader like you, or others i know we can find here. Always appreciated any observation, opinion, or critic from all of you
;-)
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Hey Wiz
Could you post a chart for me, I am having trouble seeing what you mean.
Thanks!
Mike
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Apr 21, 2010 9:22pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardPip
Well, maybe thats because i'm wrong :-(
Lets see your feedback, this is the chart im watching
Regards
Hector
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Hey Hector
I agree with supreme but in terms of your trendline that is a bit of a stretch for me. The steepness of the trendline and mainly its only hitting two points. I am even more picky with those though, so that could just show us that price is starting to get over extended. Again the decision sometimes has to come down to both the PA(is it good enough for YOU) and then how you handle the PA. Not just Pinbar ok I am long . It might be ok small pin, i get that lets see how we move on a break if it doesn't break hard I am out. I am more in the camp of lets wait for these prime locations and then wait for some more information then just a small bar. I would love to see say price consolidate over 1.0 and then form a huge BUOB engulfing that range for example.
Just my views
Mike
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36 Traders Viewing This Thread (14 are members)
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spookie94, chonyc, Donkey, djmartymac, Cyrus, actarus, mbqb11, BraFX, Dan Gilbert, joelcf, gc7, Atc, Todd, ghous
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