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  #63002  
Old May 6, 2010 3:37pm
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Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
haha 5min good stuff
my xbox is fixed lets get this going man! you guys can talk to me about 5min over it now
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  #63184  
Old May 8, 2010 1:42pm
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Not had time to read through thread today. I'm sure lots of people took this massive BEOB on GBPCHF at 1.6500 BRN, TL(s) and swing high.

Took profit in the circle area on my chart just before lunch today whiich gave a profit I considered worth taking before the weekend although I think this could ultimately go way lower.

Stop loss was just above 1.6700 hidden above the bar highs which gave a 1:1 RR trade to the PPZ I took profit at.


Have a great weekend guys.
awesome Nick
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  #63188  
Old May 8, 2010 5:04pm
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Don't know if you took it or not Mike but it certainly met the "Mike size criteria"...which is always a great thing :-)
I actually went long a 4hr boub and stopped out at b/e when momentum died(wasn't gonna get caught ), then I got in short this 1hr beob later in the night and caught a nice little move



Have a great rest of weekend lets hope this volatility sticks around for some time
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  #63283  
Old May 10, 2010 2:22pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
I also agree
James says we must trade the only standard pinbar on the daily chart.
But some also trade pin bars on the 4H chart.
is a profitable strategy?
Hey Extra

I would listen to James16 first post and read the minimum requirements. Of course ultimately it is your journey on how you want to apply this stuff, but the basics of what James and most of us old folks recommend is to start learning PA on the higher timeframes daily and weekly. There have been many reasons that we recommend this route. As you move through the thread you will see the debate pop up oh about every 6 months lol.

Best
Mike
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  #63288  
Old May 10, 2010 4:38pm
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Originally Posted by packhorse View Post
Any views on a possible PB on the AUD/NZD?
  • BRN
  • Monthly Support
  • 365 EMA
  • With the trend
  • This pair hasn't trended as wildly over the last two days compared to other pairs.
Hey Pack

This really wouldn't be a pinbar as it hasn't created any sort of swing point so it would be a weird looking bar at a deep swing low. You want to see them at a swing high for a bearish bar

Best
Mike
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  #63312  
Old May 10, 2010 10:29pm
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Originally Posted by squeezy View Post
Hehehehehe, silly me
hahahaha
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  #63314  
Old May 10, 2010 10:32pm
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Hi Yaniv,

Could you share with us the aggregation bars indicator?
Thanks.

CY
Hey CY

That is the new MT5 platform

MT4 you can do it with the period converter indicator

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26550

Best
Mike
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  #63319  
Old May 10, 2010 11:32pm
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Thanks Mike but I can't seem to get it working.

Below is what Jaroo had instucted.
*********************************** *********************
Once installed. Add "periodcon" to your chart. Go to "inputs", there go to "Period Multiplier". If your on the 4 hour you would input "2" for the 8 hour chart. or "3" for the 12 hour chart , "4" for the 16 hour chart and so on.

Next:
Go to "File" and click "Open Offline" . Pick your time frame and pair you convertered and Click "Open". Then just add your template. Done.

Jim
*********************************** **********************
After...
Hey Cy

It is just part of the process, you then have to go to File Open offline then FIND the chart of the new period under the currency

Mike
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  #63339  
Old May 11, 2010 2:28am
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
hello mike
knowing that I always watch the daily chart,
I would like to know if on tf 8H pattern "two bars matching high" "is reliable, especially if it follow the trend
many thanks
Hey E

Two bar matching lows/highs can be a good sign of a continuation when they break. I prefer multiple matching highs/lows within a short period. Those are even better

Find on you chart where you have 4-5+ matching highs/lows and what happens when price breaks them

Best
mike
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  #63345  
Old May 11, 2010 2:54am
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Do you refer to chart on daily bars or smaller tf?
everything with PA works on all timeframes. Everything is relative to that timeframe in my opinion. So everything you see done on a daily can be done on a 1 hour and vice versa. But my opinion still remains to start on the daily/weekly to learn the proper skillset to be able to take things where you like in the end

Best
Mike
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  #63407  
Old May 11, 2010 11:12am
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
I know and have read here that "price is price and trade what you see"...
Hey ATC

Yes you are correct price is price. Meaning the movement of price is the same. All your broker shows is a window into price aggregated based on hourly closes depending on when their daily closes. So a 4hr close is simply based on the last 4 horus of data. A different broker on their last 4 hours of data. I have 4 brokers for 4 hours of data to give me a different view into price. I do however only use a 5pm est close b/c I believe that is important to close your daily when NY closes or as near as possible(again that is a belief and doesn't necessarily take away from other closes). I also for now do not aggregate bars into say 6hr, 8hr like yaniv has as I think it changes some of the properties of what it is I am used to visually seeing and managing accordingly.

It is not neccesary to watch more feeds, it is only improtant to do what is comfortable

Best
Mike
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  #63410  
Old May 11, 2010 11:20am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Ok, I will ask this question again as none seems to have clocked it, or perhaps as I directed it to Mike people refrained from answering.

I heard about two systems Jim calls, "base systems" Price crosses the 150 EMA followed by the 10 & 25 EMA and entry is on first pullback to the 10 EMA. the other system is a 6-150 EMA pullback system. Jim seems to think these two systems especially the 6-150 is a great account builder. I see people using the 365 & 150 EMA in this thread yet, I fail to see anyone using the pullback system.

Is there are reason...
Hey Pin

My real answer is probably it is beyond the scope of this thread. Since this thread is so big, and filled with so many new traders most of us try to keep the majority of our focus to getting the newbies their legs(as people were saying crawl - walk- high jump etc). So some of that stuff just is more advanced in my eyes and/or not as suitable in such a huge thread that moves so fast. I really am one to suggest learning PA and understanding S/R great locations etc first. I think it puts people worlds ahead.

Sorry must have missed that one!
Mike
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  #63411  
Old May 11, 2010 11:23am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Because there's no real volume information I guess.

FOr Forex, enough people nixed the idea of using volume for me when I first started. To be honest, I don't think it'd effect my results now anyway.
I have yet to find anyone use it in any meaningful way. That is where you can't get the same type of info either from just the chart or just another indicator that oscillates. To expand for the original question. There is NO true volume numbers in the spot market. It is not centralized so that volume you see on mt4 is simply number of "ticks" within the bar. As someone said you can get volume data in the futures market which is centralized. But again my believe(just me ) is that the futures market makes up such a small portion that I wouldn't be comfortable with it. Now I am SURE others disagree and use it(don't come after me if you do, do whatever works!). The good news is you don't need it to still be successful.

Best
Mike
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  #63414  
Old May 11, 2010 11:30am
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Originally Posted by FX Raider View Post
Hello everyone,
It is nice to be here....
Hey Raider

welcome, I think that is a pretty decent one. Good PPZ(which was formerly the PPZ of that large snap back) and in b/w the 50 and 61.8 which Raczefx has proven time and time again is a HUGE impact area. I would have liked a bigger nose, but overall nice simplistic trade.

Welcome again
Mike
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  #63417  
Old May 11, 2010 11:39am
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Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
wow, how did you know these two systems? are they coming from private forum?
yeah I am not to sure about that either. I think the extent to which James himself has presented his ideas were on this page

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ght=365&page=2


while I am in this blast from the past posts I found this


IF YOU ARE NEW TO THIS THREAD CLICK IT

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=31
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  #63422  
Old May 11, 2010 11:48am
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Originally Posted by Greenhaze View Post
Hi Mike

Could you tell me which brokers have daily close at 5pm est please

Cheers
Hey G

I use fxpro for my daily charting

Best
Mike
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  #63424  
Old May 11, 2010 11:59am
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Originally Posted by FX Raider View Post
I have taken profit on the GU setup. Still eager to hear everyone else's exit strategies. For this 1HR setup that was entered at S1 and also Scaled Into again at the 50% fib, I have exited at the daily M3 pivot which is also a 161.8% fib extension of today's move and pullback.
Your lines are very good. Exactly the stuff we should look for. I marked off the trouble areas that would have me most concerned as a general guide. Again bar wise would want a bigger bar but this proves why location is everything as where price stalled was a very very crisp PPZ and important area of supply and demand
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  #63427  
Old May 11, 2010 12:45pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
People who are so afraid of having a losing trade will fail as traders....
I agree Dan, once you have found concepts and setups that work you have to rinse and repeat and the outcomes you accept. For example over my data now I understand the potentials and drawbacks within reason(meaning X amount of loss% in a row or X amount of win% in a row usually falls on a range with outliers here and there). The issue isn't with losses, if it is then I agree 100%. The issue is that a lot of losses people take are either unwarranted or they NEED to learn from them b/c they don't have as solid of a foundation as you. So we have to understand them from both regards. From the way you explain once we have something that works(and that way we don't method hop which most people do), and also in the regards to make sure we have our shoes on the right foot

Mike
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  #63431  
Old May 11, 2010 1:03pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
Oh I understand this, believe me.

But Mike you know better than me that a lot of what you know now is just pure instinct....


it's an ongoing process for sure
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  #63541  
Old May 12, 2010 12:28pm
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Originally Posted by HanSolo View Post
First of all, thank you mbqb11 and Jarroo for commenting on my last breakout trade! Here's another trade I took yesterday:

Pro: Daily BEOB on EURUSD below BRN 1.3000, Weekly Pivot, 50%-Fib of last downmove, very minor (red) and major (yellow) PPZ.

Contra: No real swing high, not much space to the left and - depending on where you draw it - just above the recent weekly TL (missed to take that into account when entering the trade).

[b]Still luckily...
Hey Han

As you can see PA can work in so many LOCATIONS. But then we have to determine the best course of mgmt. I have taken trades at every location you can think of and all I try to do is figure out the best course of mgmt based on that action. These types I think a quick t/p is best or at least getting to b/e faster b/c these are areas for snap backs to occur(as they were the last true demand). So traders watch it in that manner.

Best
Mike

Last edited by mbqb11, May 12, 2010 1:40pm
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  #63552  
Old May 12, 2010 6:01pm
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Originally Posted by kdee1 View Post
Hi Mike, jaroo and others that's helping others to learn something here. My thanks also goes to James for starting the thread. I'm baby in the game, just 4months old and i think this is the place i can say i've learn the hard truth about Fx. I am on demo, daily tf ofcourse, but my problem is stoploss is always too large. Pls how possible can i be placing my order with not more than 50pips. thanks
Hey Kdee

Welcome to the thread.

If you have not read up on yet please learn about position sizing. While our Risk can remain the same our position size(the amount of lots, or units we use) can change. So if you risk 1% per trade, it can be spread over 50pips or 500 pips and your risk is still 1%. This is how we have the ability to move to higher timeframes and forex is great b/c you can always find a broker that allows you to properly position size your account.

Here are some reference points
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6948


Hope this helps
Mike
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  #63563  
Old May 12, 2010 10:01pm
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
That's something I'm trying to figure out also. I was going to try FXPro, but they don't accept US clients. The FXCM Trade Station has a close time of the close of New York, but I like the ability to use EA's.

So, I'm interested in suggestions also. Especially for US clients.
Hey Slade

You don't need to chart and trade with the same broker. All 4 brokers I use to chart with I do not trade with. Remember price is still price so we can simply transfer our orders. Charting is simply a view of that price.

Best
Mike
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  #63672  
Old May 13, 2010 12:28pm
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Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
this is a pinbar. (but it shouldn't encourage you to trade lower tf).
just to show...
Beautiful, HUGE pin swing low

Did what we would expect
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  #63681  
Old May 13, 2010 2:58pm
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Originally Posted by BWise View Post
What do you guys look for to define an area of trouble and does it change whether or not you are going long or short?

Just looking to tighten up my trades and risk and need some clearification from the more seasoned traders.

Thanks
The very First trouble areas are usually prior bar highs/lows. That is the simple way to define them. But often times it may be a close Round number. Now if a bar and location are good enough often times my first trouble area is going to be a bit further away as I believe it will trump it(again depending on the situation). And no it doesn't matter if I am going long or short(again it depends on the trade if it is a small bar decent location counter trend then yes the first trouble area is going to hold more weight).

Just my views though
Mike
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  #63685  
Old May 13, 2010 4:11pm
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Originally Posted by BWise View Post
Do you move you stops manually once it reaches the FTA or do you have an EA to do it for you?

Like always thanks for your responses Mike
Hey B

I do everything manually, but what I do at each area is entirely independent of the trade and my beliefs in it at the time of entry and during it as it progresses. For those that see my style of trading they see that every time I try to formulate the best plan that I see fit. Of course I am rarely fully right, but it does the job in the long run. Wish it was more cut and dry

Best
Mike
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  #63710  
Old May 13, 2010 6:44pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Thanks Atc.

Although it seems like sometimes I take or steal the gifts from the store. lol
steal away buddy
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  #63851  
Old May 14, 2010 12:26pm
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
USDCAD trade working out. Comments on PPZ's I have marked and overall trade, Please.

Thanks!
very nice slade, glad to see you get your stop loss to b/e very quickly, we are now at a more major trouble area, and up into 1.05

Well done

Mike

A side note guys, please do not post other peoples copyrighted information or how to get it. We do not condone that stuff here and it's just not right. Trust me when your on the other end of the stick.
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  #63853  
Old May 14, 2010 12:35pm
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
Thanks Mike, I closed the balance of the trade just short of 100 pips. Using that EA has really helped me take the emotion out of my trades. May miss out on some of the runners though.

Now I just need a 3-6 months consistent and I'll be upgrading from micro/demo to live.
That's what it is all about I wish everyone would stop trading live and go through theses steps. You will come out much better in the long run. After all isn't that why we do it to be here in the long run

Keep it up
Mike
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  #63859  
Old May 14, 2010 1:59pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Place a trade today: USD / CAD
I have two positions open at 1.0234, just above the maximum pinbar yesterday, with divergence and ppz.
Both SL 1.0201 (minimum of current day).
1 position tp 1.0264;
2 posizone 1.0331 tp with trailing stop of 25 pips.
Result:
- the first position hit the target;
- stop from second place trailing stop at 1.0243.
What do you think seniores (mostly Mike)?

(I try to learn)

Looks good E

Here was my chart with some trouble areas as well they look like yours

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=63852
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  #63862  
Old May 14, 2010 2:11pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Thanks Mike
.. perhaps begin to learn something ...
In your opinion, was correct position the SL to the minimum these days?
It depends on the trader ultimately> I always prefer to have my stop loss at the end of the bar this way I have the flexibility to move it as I see fit. You do lower your position size but their are always trade offs. Many times you are going to get nicked out with such a tight stop loss and then price proceeds on its way. Keep demoing and find where you are most comfortable and work from there.

Have a great weekend
Mike
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  #63887  
Old May 15, 2010 12:24pm
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[quote=Daneel;3726520
The reason I'm doing it this way, is I feel that I will trade differently with a demo account that I would with real money (most likely, I'll take more risky set-ups), so I don't think I'll learn nearly as much about my own psychology and money management as I would with a live account. I also don't think I'll get an accurate picture of how effective my trading strategy is.
[/quote]

Just my thoughts,

Here is where I have seen this said 1000 times but I don't believe it yet. What i mean is if you can't trade and beat a demo account, you can't with real money(while it may make someone more picky this may just be being reluctant and they don't have an actual winning method. Being picky is not a method). The real thing is the ego. If you can beat your ego to trade on a demo to prove yourself profitable, and then move up slowly you are losing out on a lot. You are going to gain so many things that are so helpful down the line by doing it this way(sort of the same way we say start on the higher timeframes). When we talk about ego I don't mean just yours, I mean all of our egos. I wish when I was learning I demoed but it just wasn't something anyone did like now. I really think by putting aside our egos and starting on demo we put ourselves in a better position in the long run. Again this is just from my experience and what my inbox tells me.

As for position sizing, to me that is as simple as it gets. %R. Most effective way to take advantage of compounding and bet sizing when winning and losing. Of course there are a million MM methods out there but some of the people I respect the most with knowledge on that stuff ended back at %R(cough merlin, miss that man!)

Hope everyone is having a great weekend
Mike
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  #63922  
Old May 16, 2010 10:45pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
If tonight is any indication as to how the rest of this week is going to be
sign me up
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  #63928  
Old May 17, 2010 12:15am
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Originally Posted by gc7 View Post
I am new to the thread, and have started wading through all the info. So far I have not been able to see what I should use for the session times for my daily bars.
For example, if the pair is GBPUSD, should I base the bar on the London session, and should it be a 24 hour bar?

thx
Hey G

Yes every daily bar will be 24hrs. Most of us use a bar that closes from 5-8pm est. I prefer a 5pm est close, b/c it is near the NY close and to me the end of the day. Others use a few hours after that. That is ok and entirely up to you. As you will see location is what is the most important thing about everything and the aggregation of price is ok to be different.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #63994  
Old May 17, 2010 3:16pm
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Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
Scenario: You get nice setup, let's say B+ pin bar, bar gets activated. You have your first TP at first trouble area. But price has trouble reaching it and reverses and goes to negative, let's say below/above first eye.

Question: Do you leave your SL at full bar or do you move it?

Question: If you move your SL, on what ground did you decide to do it?

Any help will be appreciated.
Hey Bee

My views would be:

If you are taking a B+ pinbar you are playing the odds that it will hit that FTA. Often what I see is people doing this and then price gets "near" the FTA and people do nothing and take a full bar loss. This approach in my opinion is not a good one. We have to remember everything is zones. They vary but are still zones. So if I am taking a B+ setup that I know isn't the best but has a reasonable chance to hit the FTA or give me a chance for some kind of trade, I am ALWAYS looking for ways to reduce my risk. What reduce ones risk means to each is different, but if your first trouble area is 30 pips away and you are willing to take a full bar loss after price went 20 pips, I think that trader is in for a world of hurt. Don't be afraid to cut out and live to trade another day. That is in my opinon the difference b/w a good trader and a great trader. A great trader knows that cutting for b/e or a small loss is no big deal, and understands their setup they are taking fully(ie has a trade plan). A good trader knows that they should cut out but still leans on hope.

Just my views of course and these are generalizations as it doesn't mean every trader has to react to the same trade the same way(this is what throws people)

Mike
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  #63997  
Old May 17, 2010 3:38pm
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Originally Posted by bee24 View Post
Thank you for clarifying things up.

I would like to take this scenario further and say we got stopped at BE. Then price retraces to first eye and starts to move again in 'our favor'. Would you re-enter? I realize this is a very broad question, but still. What is your view on re-entries?

Thank you.
Personally never. Cause I consider price to already have done what it has done per my rules and then I would consider it chasing the move.

Again style of trader plays a large role.

Best
Mike
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  #64020  
Old May 17, 2010 8:41pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
maybe it's because the currencies have not been friendly, maybe it's the wild whips in the markets right now, maybe it's just the lines I have drawn on my chart as "trouble areas", but I don't see anything good about any of today's pins.....

As much as I would like to trade them, I see no real A+ opportunity here. (the only one I KIND OF like is USDCAD, and that I would have to play with a very large buffer, making the trade not very attractive, once again)

I don't like to discourage people from at least trying things, but I'm just giving...
I agree Dan, but I always say too one persons A+ may not be someone else's. Style comes heavily into play. For example These pins indicate a possible reversal(temporary or long whatever). But many are trading into some major areas that can both destroy the trade or really boost them. Take gbp/usd for example. This is an easy pass for me. Simply b/c it could not close above the rd number of 1.45. So no trade. but for many that is not in their rule set. So they will watch how it breaks 1.45(since their order is above there) and if price can hover above and not come back to much they now have a fantastic place to watch to move their stop up or at the least cut out for a small loss. So it really can go both ways.

Just thought I would expand on what Dan was saying.

I just hope this volatility stays for all summer!

Best
Mike
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  #64035  
Old May 17, 2010 11:39pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks Jarroo
Your comments are clearly understood on this point.

Yes, I can see how too much switching to lower TF can confuse the situation. People were talking about the D1 Bullish PB that just formed on GBP/USD and some were looking at H4 and commenting on how the H4 PA was showing Bearish signals. I think Mike also commented on how TF switching can cause Analysis Paralysis.

Also, thanks for Really helping me out with the PPZ, I feel reasonably comfortable with drawing them now. Whereas previously, I was like, 'Hey, is this line really going...
I always tell this story but it's funny and true. The first thing I ever did in trading was use horizontal lines. We(my father myself and his friend) bought when price would cross them in a manner that looked visually correct. Over the course of a few years I complicated things, as I think we do as humans. Slowly I reverted back to a few lines on my chart
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  #64040  
Old May 18, 2010 12:00am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks Mike.

Yes, I think the human mind always wants to rationalize patterns and put them into nice little boxes, to try to create some kind of order, even when it can't really be rationalized.

I think I still have too many lines on my charts and probably concentrating on an area between 3-500 pips either side of price may be the way to go.

Not that I am looking at these lines as floor trader pivots and am going to jump in once or if they break.

Input duly noted and appreciated.
Don't be so fast to change what you are doing, just continue to learn make mistakes and learn from them. It is an evolving process. I don't even know if it stops. I just like to subscribe to certain basic things like keeping it simple. Cause it is what works for me. But always go for what works for you and build upon those things(whatever they may be).

Mike
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  #64120  
Old May 18, 2010 3:09pm
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
and to add what I said.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=64020

All these bars did as much as we can expect trading into their areas.

I marked all the charts for you.

Gbp/usd never broke the high = not a valid bar + trading right into 1.4500 your buy stop should go above this area. If it did break the high on your broke no bar was able close above that round number.

usd/jpy - not a pinbar as the nose was not lower and clearly lower then the previous bar , this should be an easy pass.

eur/usd = very small pinbar after a huge run. One tip is not to zoom your charts in so much. This is going to deceive you greatly into what is going on

aud/usd - on my chart I dont even have anything remote. But see my usd/jpy analysis for this one.

usd/chf = see chart. Small pinbar after huge run, not any other confluence. Goes to previous bar high and reverses.

gbp/jpy - very minor swing point, heavy traffic pinbar.; Could not close above 135 makes 135 your first trouble area and thus went to where expected.

usd/cad- hit first trouble are, in a lot of traffic this pinbar. (see chart) . You have to do something at this are with a bar like this(like usd/chf).

eur/jpy - again small pinbar after huge run that could not close above the round number of 115. So it broke hit 115 and reversed. See my previous link post above for the only way I see to play those, you can not take a full bar loss if you think those are worth taking.

The last thing I will say is you are hugely over exposing yourself to the same type of move. If one of these works they all will, if one fails they all pretty much will. So be careful about correlation in this sense. If anything you pick the best one and ditch the rest, especially with all these so-so bars. Bars like usd/chf must be manage VERY tightly. Period. In my book.

Hope this helps!
Mike
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  #64138  
Old May 18, 2010 5:16pm
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Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
I shorted both of below

USDMXN: Daily pin, large size
EURGBP : H4 pin, relatively not large enough

Both in downtrend
Both pin appeared at pullback in response to either ppz or gap

But, EURGBP won while USDMXN lost. I don't understand why

Fortunately, one win vs one loss brought me a slight drawdown only. but, the question of why still remains. are there any particular details I didn't see them?
Hey J

That pin is in a lot of traffic. Meaning it did not create a real solid swing point. Thus, we are trading right into a problem area. Hopefully my chart shows you exactly what that problem area was.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #64143  
Old May 18, 2010 5:42pm
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Hi, Mike, here again, would you please help highlight the traffic area which concerned you ? thanks
I made a video that I have re-uploaded so I don't have to find the post.

http://drop.io/cfnoat3

This should clear up the chart below. And aside for the space issue one major thing I never do is trade into a PPZ, which 12.5 is clearly so we want to trade away from these areas to have the wind at our backs(so without knowing anything else I would never trade into the 12.5 that is our first trouble area traffic aside). I marked a pinbar that has space, vs the one you took.

Let me know if that helps
Mike
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  #64147  
Old May 18, 2010 5:52pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Hello Mike
Given the bearish trend would be better to sell on ret of IB daily?
(Maybe with divergence 4h tf?)
Hey E

Personally if I was to play an IB I would simply sell below the low and stop above the high. I just wouldn't be comfortable playing a short into such an over extended move. I know the urge is to get in the trend but we are getting pretty oversold and I wouldn't put past some sort of reversal soon, maybe it comes lower at 1.4 but this ones tricky IMO.

Best
Mike
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  #64149  
Old May 18, 2010 5:54pm
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Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
yes, definitely helped, Mike. just a little clarification, please. firstly you said traffic, it's a space issue this time. I guess you were referring to space, right? coz my understanding from your video seems to me a traffic is more an area of side by side bars while space is the empty area, a little bit lost here
Hey J

I use the terms the same. If there is space, there is less traffic. If there is no space there is more traffic. They are an interchangeable concept in my book. So if you can't find space your finding traffic

Mike
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  #64187  
Old May 19, 2010 1:01am
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Originally Posted by Arlo View Post
Hi everyone, this is my first post on this, the mother of all threads.

I have a question to Mike or anyone really (you all seem very knowledgable) re Mike's video about traffic vs space (great btw!)

When looking to the left of current price action how far back do you look?

This is a real dilemma for me when drawing PPZ's. Should I draw S/R pivots all the way back to 2008, or should I focus on, say the last 30 days (on daily charts). I suppose I'm asking what chart scale to use to define space/traffic.

Does anyone have a rule of thumb?
Hey Arlo

It really varies for me on the situation. In general the further I am going back it is going to have to do looking for trade locations rather then actual mgmt. But that isn't always the case either, so it isn't one or the other. I think both long term and shorter term supply/demand areas are important. Then when a longer term lines up with a shorter term it becomes even more important.

Best
Mike
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  #64249  
Old May 19, 2010 12:25pm
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Originally Posted by kdee1 View Post
Hi jaroo, Mike and other, i placed a buy on GU when i saw that pin bar yesterday, but the game went against me. pls what did i do wrongly, the nose was long enough and close within the last bar,is there any other thing i suppose to see or take note of that i fail to note. pls teach me.
kdee
Hey Kdee

THe reasons for not placing a pending order for me was that it actually didn't close within the prior bar on my feed, but more importantly it could not close above the 1.4500 round number. With that said though the higher never broke thus it is not a valid pinbar until that high breaks and is why the conservative entry is to wait for a break of the bar(this is what I still do all these years).

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #64251  
Old May 19, 2010 12:34pm
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Not sure which broker you are using but the IBFX feed seems to be the only one that the PB's Open and Close to be within the previous bar on the GU Daily PB from Monday and the only one that broke. Still the other broker PBs had a left eye by proxy that made them somewhat legitimate but they never broke. We always wait for the break.

So looking at the IBFX's PB, the size was just too small to counter the big downtrend that we are in. Look at the PB in blue, which is much bigger than Monday's, it was able to reach it 1st target but not able to...
doh! Thanks Jim! You the man
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  #64252  
Old May 19, 2010 12:38pm
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Originally Posted by Arlo View Post
Second that Dan. The EURCHF just doesn't act or look right. Central bank intervention? Probably, maybe. LOL I don't know, but I'm not trading it.
Yes this is 100% intervention at this level
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  #64253  
Old May 19, 2010 12:41pm
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Originally Posted by jenecona View Post
Hey guys bit new here....my bad if this has been answered before but there are so many posts and wasnt too good with the search tool. Im really interested in learning to trade and have been reading a lot of threads and spin off topics from this thread. Can anybody give me a ballpark figure on how many pips a month one can make on average using pin bars on a daily time frame. I know its all relative if I use the %R risk mangement method by fiji as pips do not mean anything. But it will give me a starting point on how much starting capital...
Hey Jen

Yes you care correct pips are a very poor starting point to judge anything. Reason being especially these days there is every kind of broker so you can always have position sizing accordingly. Be it starting with 50$(and using a broker that allows you to trade down to 1unit(less then a penny per point), or starting with 500k. There really is no good answer to give when talking in pips. I can make 1000pips one month and that only equate to a small% win or even a loss. Other months I could make 50 pips and that equate to a 5% growth. But as I said the great thing is forex is extremely liquid and the granularity available is amazing. My advice just start demoing and getting a feel for everything and don't worry about pips(stick to the %R) and you will be ok

Best
Mike
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  #64287  
Old May 19, 2010 6:40pm
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
I am not so sure Mike would say this has alot of space....Mike could we have your opinion?
Hey Atc

Yes I agree this one doesn't have too much room to run. I am not convinced by the size and the fact we didn't test below that last low(created by the huge bearish day). Overall it is one I think needs to be managed tightly based on how I see things. This is a pass for me.

Best
Mike
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  #64289  
Old May 19, 2010 6:42pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Mike is an easy pass on this one. I'm trading it very tight. Not a full position.
boom, if it was a bigger nose through the last low it then becomes an easy trade! The little things for me.

Thanks Jim
Mike
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  #64294  
Old May 19, 2010 6:48pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Awww . . come on Mike! . .this baby going to the moon . . you gotta get on board . . . . oh wait . . . am I stoppped out yet.
notice it hit that low basically too the pip. Must be a large resting order(as well as additional piled up there). So you could see a nice move. I would looove to blow out that low and then reject hard.
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  #64302  
Old May 19, 2010 7:07pm
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Originally Posted by woleadu View Post
Hello Fxprocessor, please which software did you use to draw the purple lines, Ive tried using the one with MT4, but it cannot draw short horizontal lines.I hope you can help with with the source of the program
thanks
you need to double click the trendline and right click it , go to properties and uncheck the ray box under parameters

Mike
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  #64305  
Old May 19, 2010 7:14pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Trying to figure out where your Highs/Lows are located for your fibs.


Daily High/Low?
yeah was going to post this. This is IMO the only way to draw a current fib right now in terms of swing points.

I also marked what I believe is holding it up for now

Mike
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  #64315  
Old May 19, 2010 7:32pm
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Originally Posted by woleadu View Post
Mike,
thanks. it worked for the horizontal lines, but not the vertical lines. Please may I ask what program you are using to draw those green and blue lines on your chart. Also this question go to Jarroo. I will appreciate your help
Thanks
Hey Wo

We all use the trendline option with the ray unchecked. This way you can draw any kind of line you want.

Best
Mike
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  #64332  
Old May 19, 2010 9:12pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
The first thing I thought of was the Nov. 2007 Weekly Cad PB.

The A+ of A+.
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  #64333  
Old May 19, 2010 9:13pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I have been trading for a few years then I found this thread. Then I ignore this thread . .loss money . . and then came back to it and got serious.

Demo . . .demo . . . demo . . . Ah-ha . . . demo . . demo . . . Ah-Ha . .demo . .etc.

It took a few years, I had to get rid of some bad habits and started making good habits.

It just takes time. You'll get there. You're in the right place and you're doing the right things.
hahah Jim and do you remember the size of the thread back then when it was "too big" for us :P
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  #64336  
Old May 19, 2010 9:52pm
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Originally Posted by spyder View Post
Glad that the veterans are still around to share the wealth (of...
congrats and much success into the future
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  #64364  
Old May 20, 2010 2:25am
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Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
this is pretty scary guys.... dow 5000!
how scared are you on a scale of 1-10. Let me know when you hit a 10 so I can start buying
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